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Daily December 1, 2014
Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter
DAILYCompiled EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER & Edited by Riceplus Magazine
December 01, 2014 Vol 4 Issue XI
Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER News Headlines… Impeachment Case Initiated Against Thailand Former Premier in Rice Pledging Case Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tumble as Traders Weigh Falling Oil Prices, Slow Rice Demand Changing Demographics Impact Rice Consumption, Production in Japan Missing Rice Stocks with FCI Raises Doubts Over States' Exact Procurement Figures Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Begin Week Sharply Lower as Traders React to Huge Decline in Crude Prices Philippines Plans to Import 600,000 Tons of Rice to Replenish 2015 Stocks Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some Quotes Today; Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some Quotes Today Global Rice Quotes
News Detail… Impeachment Case Initiated Against Thailand Former Premier in Rice Pledging Case Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Dec 01, 2014
Thailand's National Legislative Assembly (NLA) initiated impeachment case against the former Prime Minister (PM) Yingluck Shinawatra after rejecting the evidences presented by her lawyers on November 28, 2014, according to local sources. The first hearing has been scheduled on January 9, 2014.The NLA was reportedly not convinced with the additional evidences submitted by a team of Yingluck's lawyers. It rejected a total of 72 evidences following a vote on additional evidences. On last Friday, NLA rejected 28 older evidences submitted earlier by the layers team to the National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC) by 165 votes to 15; 5 evidences relating to a sub-committee investigating the rice-pledging scheme by 122 vote to 63; and 39 evidences relating to results of meetings between the National Rice Policy Committee (NRPC) and a sub-committee supervising rice pledging scheme by 148 votes to 31. The NLA is handling the impeachment case against the former Prime Minister under the NACC Act, according to the NLA President.In a writ filed with the NLA, the NACC stated that the former PM breached Article 178 of the 2007 charter, Article 11 of the State Administration Act, Article 58 of the Constitution Organic Law on Prevention and Suppression of Corruption Act by twice ignoring warnings by the NACC regarding corruption in the rice pledging scheme. which brought losses of about 518 billion baht (around $15.8 billion) to the exchequer. However, the former PM has been maintaining innocence relating to her involvement in the scheme. Local sources say the former PM is likely to attend the first hearing on January 9. They noted that she could face a five-year political ban if impeached. In September this year, the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) refused the NACC recommendation to indict the former Prime Minister in the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions seeking more evidences substantiating charges against her. The NACC submitted its impeachment writ on the former PM to the NLA after the joint panel comprising members from the OAG and the NACC failed to gather sufficient evidences.
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Tags: Thai rice pledging case, Yingluck Shinawatra, Impeachment case, National Legislative Assembly (NLA), National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC)
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tumble as Traders Weigh Falling Oil Prices, Slow Rice Demand Dec 01, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery settled 19.5 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) lower at $12.140 per cwt (about $268 per ton). Rough rice futures tumbled to a double digit loss today as the recent reduction in crude oil prices along with a technically bearish outlook on the market joined forces and encouraged traders to sell the contracts. Despite a slight gain on Friday the outlook remains for lower prices and some traders expect the market to test psychological support at $12.000 per cwt (about $265 per ton) in coming sessions. The other grains finished with mixed results today; Soybeans closed about 0.1% higher at $10.1700 per bushel; wheat finished about 5.1% higher at $6.0775 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.1% lower at $3.7550 per bushel. U.S. stocks declined on Monday with investor concern about a lackluster start to the holiday shopping season partially offset by data that had a measure of U.S. factory activity slowing less than expected in November. The Institute for Supply Management said its national factory activity index dropped to 58.7 last month from 59 in October, with the latest figure beating expectations of 57.8. Americans spent about 11% less during the long holiday weekend ahead of Cyber Monday's online sales, according to survey results released Sunday by the National Retail Federation. Markit's final November manufacturing Purchasing managers' Index for the euro zone was 50.1, its lowest level since June 2013. China's official factory index dropped to 50.3 for November, while the Markit index had it at 50. After a 101-point fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately off 34.07 points, or 0.2%, at 17,794.17. The S&P 500 fell 11.44 points, or 0.6%, to 2,056.13, with industrials the poorest performer of 10 major industry groups, nine of which were in the red. The Nasdaq declined 51.73 points, or 1.1%, to 4,739.91. Gold is trading about 3.5% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.5% higher, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.5% lower at about 1:00pm Chicago time.
Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Friday, there were 748 contracts traded, up from 675 contracts traded on Wednesday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 172 contracts to 9,764. Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice, chicago rough rice futures
Changing Demographics Impact Rice Consumption, Production in Japan Dec 01, 2014
Japan is shifting its focus from producing rice that is suitable for human consumption to that is suitable for livestock feed due to changing demographics, according to local sources. The Japan government has lowered the country's human rice consumption target to around 7.51 million tons, down about 2% from an estimated 7.65 million tons in 2014, due to an increase in ageing population, according to local sources. Japan's total rice consumption needs are estimated at around 8.2 million tons for MY 2014-15 (November - October), slightly down from an estimated 8.25 million tons in MY 2013-14, according to USDA.The Japanese government slashed the human rice consumption target in 2014 by about 260,000 tons to around 7.65 million tons and has continued to slash the same in 2015 due to an increase in ageing population. Also, a significant decline in rice prices in 2014 due to over production in 2013 has led the government to curtail production suitable for human consumption and convert some of the rice fields to produce rice useful for livestock feed. According to government population estimates, as of September 2014, about 33% of the population are above 60 years, about 25.9% are above 65 years and about 12.5% are over 75 years.The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is planning to achieve a balance between production and consumption. It is also planning to subsidize farmers who convert their rice crops suitable for human consumption to those suitable for livestock feed. The Ministry aims Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
to reduce rice acreage substantially by 2018 in a phased manner. Tags: Japan rice production, Japan rice consumption, Japan graying population
Missing Rice Stocks with FCI Raises Doubts Over States' Exact Procurement Figures Dec 01, 2014
Recent directive by the Food Ministry to the Food Corporation of India (FCI) to tally the stocks in the books and warehouses is likely to pose problems to some state governments, according to local sources.As of October 1, 2013, rice stocks with the Food Corporation of India (FCI) amounted to around 23.1 million tons, more than three times the required buffer norms of around 7.2 million tons. However, the Food Ministry's stock audits have found that nearly 6 million tons of rice worth about 10,000 crore (around $1.6 billion), or about 26% of the reported 23.1 million tons are missing. Usually, FCI procures paddy and assigns some millers to get the milled and resupply the milled rice to FCI warehouses. However, in this case, millers have not returned around 6 million tons of milled rice to FCI since October 2012.Stock audits show that most of the missing rice stocks have been identified in the states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha. While about 10.86 million tons of rice (paddy equivalent) has been procured in 2012-13 from these states, nearly 3.82 million tons of milled rice worth Rs.6,339 crore (around $1 billion) is still with millers. Similarly, of the 9.37 million tons of paddy procured from these states in 2013-14, nearly 2.15 million tons of milled rice worth Rs.3,745 crore (around $604 million) has to reach FCI warehouses. The Food Ministry has reportedly asked the FCI to retrieve the missing rice stocks from respective states' millers by the end of this month or write off the stocks at the expense of the respective state governments. This means, the respective state governments need to bear huge losses if they cannot get back the rice from millers.“We can understand the delay of a few Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
months in milling, but if the rice is not received after more than a year of paddy procurement, it raises doubts as to whether the state governments even procured that much rice, one of the senior officials at the Food Ministry was quoted as saying.India’s rice stocks in the central pool as of October 1, 2014 stood at around 18.24 million tons (including a milled equivalent of about 6.65 million tons of paddy), down about 21% from last year. Tags: India rice stocks, Food Corporation of India (FCI)
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Begin Week Sharply Lower as Traders React to Huge Decline in Crude Prices Dec 01, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery are currently trading 23.5 cents per cwt (about $5 per ton) lower at $12.100 per cwt (about $267 per ton) during early floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen mostly lower as well: soybeans are currently seen about 0.2% lower, wheat is listed about 2.1% higher and corn is noted about 1.1% lower. U.S. stocks declined on Monday with investor concern about a lackluster start to the holiday shopping season partially offset by data that had a measure of U.S. factory activity slowing less than expected in November. The Institute for Supply Management said its national factory activity index dropped to 58.7 last month from 59 in October, with the latest figure beating expectations of 57.8. Americans spent about 11% less during the long holiday weekend ahead of Cyber Monday's online sales, according to survey results released Sunday by the National Retail Federation. Markit's final November manufacturing Purchasing managers' Index for the euro zone was 50.1, its lowest level since June 2013. China's official factory index dropped to 50.3 for November, while the Markit index had it at 50. After a 101-point fall, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lately off 61.62 points, or 0.3%, at 17,767.62. The S&P 500 fell 14.66 points, or 0.7%, to 2,052.94, with industrials the poorest performer of 10 major industry groups, eight of which were in the red. The Nasdaq declined 53.08 points, or 1.1%, to 4,738.63. Gold is currently trading about 2.3% higher, crude oil is seen trading about 3.2% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.5% lower at 8:10am Chicago time.
Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Tags: U.S., U.S. rice prices, U.S. paddy prices
Philippines Plans to Import 600,000 Tons of Rice to Replenish 2015 Stocks Dec 01, 2014
The National Food Authority (NFA) is planning to initially import about 600,000 tons of rice to replenish stocks and ensure adequate supply during the lean months (June - August) of 2015, according to the BusinessWorld.The NFA Administrator was quoted as saying that the NFA Council and the Agriculture Secretary will soon recommend to the President about the import requirements and the final import volume will depend on the President's decision. He added that the imported rice is expected to arrive by June 2015 and NFA is likely to issue tenders in December 2014 or January 2015. The NFA imported around 1.8 million tons of rice (including 1.5 million tons of this year's imports and 300,000 tons of last year's residual imports) so far this year to replenish rice stocks and control price hikes. The NFA is still authorized to import another 500,000 tons of rice this year, if need arises.The government’s plans to curtail rice imports in 2013 resulted in huge increase in prices and rice smuggling. Therefore, the government decided to import rice from the beginning of 2014 to maintain adequate stocks and control rice hikes. The government is planning to adopt the same strategy in 2015 as well due to expected decline in paddy production in 2014 and first quarter of 2015, according to local sources. According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), paddy rice output in the first quarter of 2105 is forecasted at around 4.28 million tons, down about 0.6% from around 4.31 million tons recorded last year. Total paddy rice production in 2014 is expected at around 18.88 million tons (around 11.89 million tons, basis milled), up about 2.4% from around last year's 18.44 million tons (around 11.62 million tons, basis milled), but is lower by about 1% from the government's target of around 19.07 million tons (around 12 million tons, basis milled).
Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
USDA estimates the Philippines to import around 1.6 million tons of milled rice in 2015, up about 10% from an estimated 1.45 million tons in 2014. USDA estimates the South-East Asian nation to produce around 19.36 million tons of paddy (around 12.2 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2014-15 (July - June), up about 3% from an estimated 18.82 million tons (around 11.86 million tons, basis milled) in MY 2013-14. Tags: Philippines rice imports, National Food Association (NFA), Philippines rice stocks
Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some Quotes Today; Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some Quotes Today Dec 01, 2014
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to about $380 $390 per ton today. Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for Thai Ai Super rice variety by about $5 per ton to around $365 - $370 per ton and increased quotes for Thai Hom Mali rice variety by about $35 per ton to around $950 - $960 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton, about $25 per ton premium on Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $380 - $390 per ton, down about $5 per ton from Friday. India 5% rice is quoted at around $390 - $400 per ton, unchanged from Friday and about $10 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $380 - $390 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, on par with Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $355 - $365, unchanged from Friday and about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around$335 - $345 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $405 - $415 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
around $375 - $385 per ton, unchanged from Friday and about $45 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $420 - $430 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted about $365 - $370 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday and about $5 per ton premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $325 $335 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $300 - $310 per ton, unchanged from Friday and about $5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $305 $315 per ton. Tags: Vietnam rice prices, Thailand rice prices, India rice prices, pakistan rice prices
Global Rice Quotes December 1st, 2014 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 420-430 Vietnam 5% broken 380-390 ↓ India 5% broken 390-400 ↔ Pakistan 5% broken 380-390 ↔ Cambodia 5% broken 455-465 ↔ U.S. 4% broken 540-550 ↔ Uruguay 5% broken 595-605 ↔ Argentina 5% broken 595-605 ↔
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken NQ ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 350-360 ↔ Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↔ Cambodia 25% broken NQ ↔ Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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December 1, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
India 25% broken U.S. 15% broken
355-365 515-525
↔ ↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415 ↔ Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 420-430 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 375-385 ↔ U.S. parboiled 4% broken 580-590 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔
↔
Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 950-960 ↑ Vietnam Jasmine 525-535 ↔ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Malis 835-845 ↔ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 365-375 ↑ Vietnam 100% broken 325-335 Pakistan 100% broken stxd 305-315 Cambodia A1 Super NQ ↔ India 100% Broken stxd 300-310 Egypt medium grain brokens NQ U.S. pet food 445-455 ↔ Brazil half grain NQ ↔
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874 28
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