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Daily November 7, 2014
Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter
DAILYCompiled EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER & Edited by Riceplus Magazine
November 07, 2014
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER News Headlines…
Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today FAO Estimates 2014-15 Global Rice Production to Decline Slightly to 496.3 Million Tons FAO Forecasts Madagascar to Import 250,000 Tons of Rice in MY 2014-15, Down 54% from Last Year FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines 1% m/m to 235 Points in October 2014 Oryza Global Weekly Weather Outlook Global Rice Quotes India Invites Tenders to Import Another 20,000 Tons of Rice Indonesia Targets Rice Self-Sufficiency by 2016 Nov 06, 2014 Record Rice Imports and High Prices Estimated for Sri Lanka in 2014 Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Remain under Pressure from Strong US Dollar Thai Government Considers New OnFarm Pledging Program for 2014-15 Main Crop Fragrant and Glutinous Rice
Chinese COLOR SORTER as low as Pak Rs 22 Lakh Only A Time Limited Offer Contact: Cell: 0300 414 3493
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today Nov 06, 2014
Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged today. 5% Broken Rice Thailand 5% rice is quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton, about $20 per ton discount to Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $430 - $440 per ton. India 5% rice is quoted at around $410 $420 per ton, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 5% rice quoted at around $395 - $405 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thailand 25% rice was last quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton, about $45 per ton discount to Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $395 - $405 per ton. India 25% rice is quoted at around $370 - $380, about $20 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice quoted at around $350 - $360 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thailand parboiled rice is quoted at around $410 - $420 per ton. India parboiled rice is quoted at around $390 - $400 per ton, about $35 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice quoted at around $425 - $435 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted at around $330 - $340 per ton, on par with Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $330 - $340 per ton. India's 100% broken rice is shown at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $5 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice quoted at around $320 - $330 per ton. Tags: Vietnam rice prices, India rice prices, pakistan rice prices, Thailand rice prices
FAO Estimates 2014-15 Global Rice Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
Production to Decline Slightly to 496.3 Million Tons Nov 06, 2014
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has estimated 2014-15 global rice production to decline marginally to around 496.3 million tons from last year's 498.1 million tons, and almost unchanged from its previous estimate of 496.4 million tons. The decline in world's rice production is attributed to decline in production in many African and Asian countries and is the first one after 2009, according to the FAO. The FAO estimates 2014-15 global rice utilization at around 500.2 million tons, up about 2% from around 491.9 million tons in 2013-14 and almost unchanged from its previous estimate of 500.3 million tons due to likely increase in consumption in many countries. It estimates global rice trade in 2014-15 at around 40 million tons, slightly up from around 39.7 million tons last year and unchanged from its previous estimate of 40 million tons. The increase is due to strong imports by Near East and West African countries. The FAO estimates 2014-15 global ending stocks at around 177.7 million tons, down about 2% from around 181.2 million tons last year and unchanged from its previous estimate. The decline is mainly due to fall in rice stocks in five major rice exporting countries. Tags: global rice production, Global rice trade, Global rice utilization, Global rice stocks
FAO Forecasts Madagascar to Import 250,000 Tons of Rice in MY 2014-15, Down 54% from Last Year Nov 06, 2014
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has forecasted Madagascar's MY 2014-15 (April - March) at around 250,000 tons, down about 55% from an estimated 540,000 tons in MY 2013-14. The government imported substantially high amount of rice in 2013-14 due to significant fall in production in 2013. It forecasts Madagascar 2014 rice production at around 4 million tons, up about 10% from around 3.6 million tons produced last year due to well distributed rains in the 2013-14 cropping season. The government's and FAO's joint initiation of anti-locust campaign, which began in November 2013, provided fruitful results. A Rice area of around 1.2 million hectares was treated and the campaign largely prevented the spread of locust plague thereby limiting large crop losses. Average rice prices of local rice and imported rice started increasing after they declined for four consecutive months from March 2014. Generally prices in 2014 have been lower than those in 2013 due to improved supplies. Average prices of local rice in October 2014 stood at around 1.258 million Malagasy Ariary (around $470), up about 2% from around 1.232 million Malagasy Ariary (around $470) in Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
September 2014 and down about 9% from around 1.379 million Malagasy Ariary (around $630) in October 2013. Average prices of imported rice in October 2014 stood at around 1.28 million Malagasy Ariary (around $470), up about 2% from around 1.254 million Malagasy Ariary (around $480) in September 2014 and down about 5% from around 1.353 million Malagasy Ariary (around $620) in October 2013. Tags: Madagascar rice imports, Madagascar rice production, Madagascar rice prices
FAO Global Rice Price Index Declines 1% m/m to 235 Points in October 2014 Nov 06, 2014
The FAO All Rice Price Index declined to around 235 points in October 2014, down about 1.2% from around 238 points in September 2014 due to decline in all sub-indices Higher and Lower Quality Indica subindices as well as Japonica and Aromatic sub-indices. Higher Quality Indica sub-index declined by about 4 points to around 203 points in October 2014, from around 207 points last month. Lower Quality Indica sub-index declined by about 4 points to around 204 points this month from around 208 points last month. Japonica sub-index declined by about 4 points to around 260 points in October 2014 from around 262 points last month. Aromatic sub-index also declined by about 4 points to around 268 points from last month's 272 Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
points. In January - October 2014, the FAO All Rice Price Index averaged 236 points, slightly up from around 235 points durign the same period in 2013. Sub index for higher quality Indica rice prices declined about 5.4% y/y, sub index for lower quality Indica prices declined about 12% y/y. Aromatic rice price sub index declined about 0.8% y/y. However, sub index for Japonica rice prices increased about 13% y/y. According to the FAO, rice export prices in the U.S., Uruguay and Asian origins such as Thailand, Vietnam, India and Pakistan declined in October 2014 due to increasing supplies from harvests and influenced by low prices in other markets. However, rice export prices of Thai A1 super varieties strengthened. Thai 100% broken prices declined about 1.6% m/m to around $437 per ton; Thai 5% broken prices declined about 1% m/m to around $428 per ton; Thai parboiled prices declined about 1.4% m/m to around $430 per ton; Thai 25% broken prices declined slightly m/m to around $409 per ton and Thai fragrant prices declined about 1% m/m to around $1,167 per ton. Thai A1 Super increased about 2.6% m/m to around $345 per ton. Export prices of Pakistan 25% broken rice declined by about 3.8% m/m to around $345 per ton, while those in Vietnam and India declined about 1.2% m/m and 3.4% m/m to around $403 per ton and $371 per ton respectively. Rice export prices in Uruguay and the U.S. declined slightly m/m and 1.9% m/m to around $597 per ton and $1,000 per ton respectively. Tags: FAO, Aromatic sub-index, Higher quality Indica sub-index, Lower quality Indica sub-index, Japonica rice index
Oryza Global Weekly Weather Outlook Nov 06, 2014
Some rain is expected South of the Yangtze River in China on Thursday and Friday. Isolated heavy rain are expected over the North and the Central of Thailand on Thursday and Friday. Thereafter, more rain is expected across South Thailand from Saturday to Monday. Scattered showers are expected across most of Vietnam through Friday. Weather is expected to remain dry in India. In Pakistan, widespread rain is expected in Islamabad, Rawalpindi division, Malakand, Hazara, Peshawar, Kohat, Mardan divisions, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, while alsoscattered places in Lahore, Gujranwala, Faisalabad and Sargodha divisions. Light rain is likely to occur at one or two places over Chittagong division and weather may Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
remain mainly dry with temporary partly cloudy sky elsewhere in Bangladesh. In Indonesia, scattered showers are expected across northern Sumatra and much of Borneo through Friday. Tags: weather, Rice, Asia, global
Global Rice Quotes November 6th, 2014 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade 425-435 Vietnam 5% broken 430-440 India 5% broken 410-420 Pakistan 5% broken 395-405 Cambodia 5% broken 465-475 U.S. 4% broken 540-550 Uruguay 5% broken 595-605 Argentina 5% broken 595-605 Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken NQ ↔ Vietnam 25% broken 395-405 Pakistan 25% broken 350-360 Cambodia 25% broken NQ ↔ India 25% broken 370-380 U.S. 15% broken 510-520
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
↔ ↔ ↔ ↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 410-420 ↔ Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 425-435 India parboiled 5% broken stxd 390-400 ↔ U.S. parboiled 4% broken 580-590 ↔ Brazil parboiled 5% broken 585-595 ↔ Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔ Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% 865-875 Vietnam Jasmine 570-580 ↔ India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔ Cambodia Phka Malis 855-865 ↔ Brokens Thailand A1 Super 330-340 ↔ Vietnam 100% broken 330-340 ↔ Pakistan 100% broken stxd 320-330 Cambodia A1 Super NQ ↔
↔
↔
↔
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
India 100% Broken stxd Egypt medium grain brokens U.S. pet food 445-455 Brazil half grain NQ
315-325 NQ ↔ ↔ ↔
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
India Invites Tenders to Import Another 20,000 Tons of Rice Nov 06, 2014
India's state-run trader Metals and Minerals Trading Corporation (MMTC) has floated a tender inviting bids from overseas sellers for importing 20,000 tons of 25% broken white rice for delivery at in the North-Eastern state of Mizoram, according to a bid notice posted on its website. The MMTC is seeking delivery of rice in two tranches of 10,000 tons each between December 20, 2014 - February 28, 2015. The first tranche is expected to be delivered between December 20, 2014 and January 25, 2014; and the second tranche is expected to be delivered between February 1, 2014 and February 28, 2014. According to the bid notice, minimum quantity to be offered is 2,500 tons and the bidders are required to submit their bids in euro denomination and specify country of origin for the quantity to be supplied. Last date for submitting bids is November 26, 2014. Yesterday, the State Trading Corporation (STCI) floated a tender to import 20,000 tons of rice to be delivered in India's North-Eastern state of Manipur. Both STCI and MMTC invited tenders to import 10,000 tons each on September 9, 2014. They received one bid each but were rejected due to high prices. India, the world's second largest rice producer and exporter, is importing rice, despite having buffer stocks, due to the transportation disruptions to be caused by proposed railway conversion works on the 220-kilometer Lumding (Assam)-Badarpur-Agartala (Tripura) line. The line is said to connect the North-Eastern States Manipur and Mizoram with the rest of the country. India’s rice stocks in the central pool as of October 1, 2014 stood at around 18.24 million tons (including a milled equivalent of about 6.65 million tons of paddy), and are about 55% more than the required buffer and strategic reserve norms of around 11.8 million tons for this time of the Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
year, according to the FCI. Tags: India rice imports, India rice tenders, Food Corporation of India (FCI)
Indonesia Targets Rice Self-Sufficiency by 2016 Nov 06, 2014
Indonesia's new President is targeting selfsufficiency in rice production and end rice imports within the next two years, according to local sources.The President, who took charge on October 20, 2014, inaugurated the rehabilitation of the irrigation facility in Watang Sidenreng district. On the occasion, he told local sources that in order to achieve the rice self-sufficiency target, his government is planning to enhance water supplies to the rice fields by building dams and irrigation facilities in the country. He noted that they are planning to develop/build about 25 to 30 dams across the country, adding that about 11 dams are planned for 2015 alone. Around Rp 8.2 trillion (around $656 million) has been allocated in next year's budget towards the development of 11 dams and the Public Works and Public Housing Ministry will oversee the development projects, he said. The President also stated that the government will ensure smooth supplies of seedlings and fertilizers to rice farmers. He noted that fuel subsidies would be provided to fertilizer suppliers. “These are the people’s needs and will be made a priority," he said. Most of the self-sufficiency targets introduced by the previous government have been left unfilled due to corruption and other scandals at various levels of value chain, according to local sources. The country's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) estimates 2014 paddy rice production at around 70.61 million tons, down about 0.94% from an estimated 71.28 million tons in the previous year. Indonesia's state logistics agency Bulog has signed contracts with Thailand and Vietnam to import around 425,000 tons of rice this year. USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36 million tons of rice, basis milled, and import Riceplus Magazine wwww.ricepluss.com mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com Cell: +92 321 369 2874
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
around 1.4 million tons of rice in MY 2013-14 (January 2014 - December 2014, more than double an estimated 650,000 tons imported in 2013. Consumption in 2014 is expected to increase by 1% to around 38.65 million tons from 38.13 million tons in 2013. Tags: Indonesia rice production, Indonesia rice imports, Indonesia rice self-sufficiency
Record Rice Imports and High Prices Estimated for Sri Lanka in 2014 Nov 06, 2014
The UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) has forecasted Sri Lanka's 2014 rice imports to increase about nine-fold to around 200,000 tons from around 22,900 tons in 2013 as the country's paddy rice production is expected to be much lower than expected due to prolonged dry weather conditions. The FAO has forecasted Sri Lanka's total paddy production to decline to around 3.6 million tons in 2014 (around 2.4 million tons, basis milled), down about 22% from around 4.6 million tons (around 3.1 million tons, basis milled) produced in 2013. In its country brief on Sri Lanka, the FAO has estimated the paddy output from the 2014 Yala crop (April - September 2014) at around 1.2 million tons, down about 30% from around 1.56 million tons produced last year. The decline is attributed to a contraction in area planted by about 29% due to prolonged period of dry weather at the start of the cropping season. Harvesting of the Yala rice crop has been completed in September. Output from the 2013-14 main Maha rice crop (September 2013 - April 2014) is estimated at around 2.4 million tons, down about 17% from
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November 7, 2014
DAILY EXCLUSIVE ORYZA E-NEWSLETTER
around 2.9 million tons (around 1.97 million tons, basis milled) produced last year. Domestic rice prices have been increasing since May this year and reached record highs in October this year. Average retail price of white rice reached around LKR 78,920 (around $600) per ton in October 2014, slightly up from around LKR 78,560(around $560) per ton in September 2014, and up about 33% from around LKR 59,380 (around $470) per ton in October 2013. USDA estimates Sri Lanka to produce around 2.45 million tons of rice, basis milled (around 3.6 million tons, basis paddy) and import around 120,000 tons in MY 2014-15 (October 2014 September 2015). Tags: Sri Lanka rice production, Sri Lanka rice imports
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Remain under Pressure from Strong US Dollar Nov 06, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jan delivery are currently noted 5.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $12.360 per cwt (about $272 per ton) during early morning floor trading in Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mixed: soybeans are currently seen unchanged, wheat is listed about 0.7% lower and corn is noted about 0.6% lower. U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday, extending records as investors welcomed upbeat economic reports in the U.S. and assurances from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the ECB would adopt further easing measures, if needed. Wall Street embraced economic reports that had the government's tally of Americans filing for jobless benefits falling by 10,000 to 278,000 last week, better than the expected 285,000. Another report had productivity rising more than estimated in the third quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened higher, as did the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Gold is currently trading about 0.2% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.3% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.4% higher at 9:00am Chicago time. Tags: U.S. rice prices, U.S. rice market, chicago rough rice futures
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November 7, 2014
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Thai Government Considers New On-Farm Pledging Program for 2014-15 Main Crop Fragrant and Glutinous Rice Nov 06, 2014
The Rice Policy and Management Committee, headed by the Thai Prime Minister, is considering a new on-farm pledging program for 2014-15 (October 2014 - September 2015) paddy main-crop fragrant and glutinous rice to limit downward pressure on prices during the harvest time, according to USDA Post. According to the Post, the government is proposing the new pledging program as it was unsuccessful in drawing millers to buy paddy from farmers at above-market prices. Last month it had planned to delay sales of about 2 million tons from the upcoming harvest to boost rice prices. It also asked millers to buy paddy from farmers at above-market prices with an intention to increase prices of unmilled white rice to around 8,500 baht (around $263) per ton, prices of unmilled jasmine rice to around 16,000 baht (around $495) per ton, and prices of glutinous rice to around 13,000 baht (around $401) per ton during the main crop harvest season. The government is now planning to buy fragrant paddy rice at about 14,4500 baht (around $450) per ton, which is about 10% below ruling market prices; and glutinous paddy rice at about 11,700 baht (around $365) per ton, which is about 5-10% higher than the ruling market prices from farmers. However, farmers are allowed to pledge only 20 tons of paddy at a maximum value of around 300,000 baht (around $9,375 ton). Also, farmers should maintain requisite moisture levels and store paddy rice in their warehouses for at least 30 days. They can redeem their paddy within 120 days without interest charge and will receive about 1,000 baht (around
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$31) per ton as storage cost. The Post reports that the government is targeting around 2 million tons of fragrant and glutinous rice and the program will be administered by the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC). However, some critics say farmers producing white rice may be unhappy with the government's move. Based on continued sales of government stocks for export and expected 4th quarter shipments of about 970,000 metric tons per month, USDA Post estimates Thailand to export around 10.5 million tons of rice in MY 2013-14. The table below shows the results of the three auctions conducted by the Thai government since August 7, 2014. With expectation of continued sales, strong exports and competitive prices driven by new crop sales and export subsidized linked to government held stocks, USDA Post forecasts Thai rice exports in MY 2014-15 at around 11 million tons. However, concerns about the quality of the government stocks is increasing. Last week, based on the stock inspection report, the Thai Prime Minister noted that the country currently has 18 million tons of rice and of that only 10% are of standard quality, about 70% were below-standard and about 20% were unfit for human consumption. The Post estimates Thailand 2014-15 paddy rice production at around 30.5 million tons (around 20.8 million tons, basis milled) from around 11.39 million hectares of rice area. Tags: Thai rice stocks, Thai rice pledging program, USDA, Thai rice exports, Thai rice production
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