ORYZA on 1st October,2013 IGC Raises China 2014 Rice Import Forecast by 10% Sep 30, 2013 The International Grains Council (IGC) has increased its forecast for China’s 2014 rice imports to around 2.2 million tons, up about 10% from previous forecast of around 2 million tons, but down about 4% from an estimated 2.3 million tons of rice imports in 2013. However, the IGC adds that there remains an uncertainty over rice imports by China next year and purchases may fluctuate based on international rice prices. According to IGC, most of the rice imports in 2014 by China will comprise competitively-priced broken grades rice sourced mostly from Vietnam and Pakistan. However, China could also source significant quantities of rice from Thailand because prices of Thai rice are going down and the Thai government is keen to release rice from its older intervention reserves, IGC says. The IGC also increased world rice trade forecast by around 500,000 tons to about 37.7 million tons in 2014 based on small demand increases in sub-Saharan Africa and Far East Asia. Tags: International Grains Council, China rice imports
Oryza U.S. Rough Rice Recap – Very Little Trading to Report as Buyers Drop Bids and Sellers Hold Firm; Harvest Now 58% Complete
Print Sep 30, 2013 The U.S. cash market was silent as bids dropped with the futures market while sellers remain firm as many expect higher prices after the harvest is complete. •
Offers could still be seen around $15.56-$16.66 per fob farm (about $343-$367 per ton), depending on where they are located in the U.S. mid-South, for October through December shipment, while bids from most mills and exporters decreased to around $14.75 per cwt (about $325 per ton) and $15.10 per cwt (about $333 per ton), respectively, for October through December delivery. Some smaller mills are still reported to be bidding as much as $15.56 per cwt fob farm (about $347 per ton) however that is still not receiving much interest at this time. In the meantime, the USDA estimated that as of September 29th, 58% of the U.S. rice crop has been harvested, compared to 45% last week and 75% this week last year. As of now, 57% of the crop has been cut in Arkansas compared to 30% California, 99% Louisiana, 42% in Mississippi, 37% in Missouri, and 100% in Texas. So far, the USDA considers 29% of the US crop in very poor to fair condition which was
unchanged from last week. As of now, 34% of the crop in Arkansas is said to be in very poor to fair condition compared to 15% in California, 27% in Louisiana, 13% in Mississippi, 33% in Missouri, and 53% in Texas. In other news, low water conditions on stretches of the Lower Mississippi continue to complicate barge logistics for exporters as well increasing their freight costs due to reduced drafts and slower transit times. Tags: U.S. rice prices - See more at: http://oryza.com/news/us-rough-rice/oryza-us-rough-rice-recap-%E2%80%93very-little-trading-report-buyers-drop-bids-and#sthash.ToQdCOPq.dpuf
Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Tumble Lower; Corn, Soybeans Collapse after Bearish Stocks Report
Print Sep 30, 2013 Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery settled 27 cents per cwt (about $6 per ton) lower at $15.130 per cwt (about $334 per ton). Rough rice futures tumbled today following a collapse in beans and corn. Today’s weakness has been attributed to a very bearish Grain Stocks report for beans and corn although it was supportive for wheat and had no major effect on rice futures. Rice and wheat were dragged lower by the other grains however support from the report limited wheat losses. Rice futures fell though nearby technical support and could likely face additional buying interest as prices near $15.000 per cwt (about $331 per ton). As previously mentioned the other grains finished sharply lower today; soybeans finished the day about 2.8% lower at $12.8275 per bushel; wheat finished about 0.7% lower at $6.7850 per bushel; and corn finished the day about 2.8% lower at $4.4150 per bushel. •
U.S. stocks held their losses across the board Monday, with the Dow down more than 100 points, as a budget battle in Washington threatened the first government shutdown in nearly 17 years. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined more than 100 points. The blue-chip index traded lower for the seventh day in eighth. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also slumped. Most key S&P sectors were in the red, dragged by financials and energy. The country is facing its first government shutdown in 17 years, with only a few hours left for the House to pass a stand-alone spending bill which will fund the government through to December 15. Budget spending must be agreed by Congress before Tuesday, to prevent a shutdown which could force federal employees to take unpaid leave. U.S. Treasuries ticked higher, driven by a bid for safe haven assets. U.S. stock markets are currently trading down about 0.6%, gold is trading about 0.9% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.7% lower, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.4% lower at about 2:00pm Chicago time. Looking to the daily continuation chart of Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery,
traders noted that the market “fell out of bed” today as prices had been relatively sideways before tumbling sharply during mid-day trading. Despite making a move higher to close at nearby technical support of $15.400 per cwt (about $340 per ton) the bulls were unable to maintain their momentum and prices dropped back below the lower boundary of the recent sideways trading range. Today’s collapse saw prices fall though this previously mentioned level of support and ultimately though the lower Bollinger band at $15.215 per cwt (about $335 per ton) which had acted as the price objective. Further support is seen at the psychosocially important $15.000 per cwt (about $331 per ton) level. Today’s trading range is noted as $15.110-$15.420 per cwt (about $333-$340 per ton). Friday, there were 1,532 contracts traded, up from 778 contracts traded on Thursday. Open interest – the number of contracts outstanding – on Friday increased by 213 contracts to 9,403. Tags: chicago rough rice futures Print - See more at: http://oryza.com/news/us-rough-rice/oryza-afternoon-recap-%E2%80%93chicago-rough-rice-futures-tumble-lower-corn-soybeans#sthash.e3hAYR0Z.dpuf •
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today – Brazil Real Up 1.6%
Print Sep 30, 2013 U.S. dollar index was down -0.08% from the open today, when it traded at 80.224 at the close. •
Euro was +0.02% higher today by the close, trading around 1.3525 by end of day, after trading between an intraday high of 1.3556 and low of 1.3469. Thai baht was stronger +0.27%, trading at 31.245 at the close of business. Indian rupee was weaker -0.19%, finishing the day at 62.6175. Brazilian real was +1.62% stronger than the open at today’s close, when it ended at 2.2165 reais per dollar. Pakistan rupee was -0.25% weaker at the close, trading at 106.0600. Vietnamese dong was virtually unchanged at 21113.
Mexican peso was +0.04% stronger today, when it traded at 13.1354 pesos per dollar by the close of business today. Chinese yuan was weaker -0.04% at 6.1209. Argentine peso was -0.04% weaker at 5.7915 pesos per dollar. Tags: foreign exchange rates •
- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/fx/oryza-rice-currency-analysis-today-%E2%80%93brazil-real-16#sthash.XGN3UJat.dpuf
Thailand Central Bank Chief Warns Against Populist Rice Mortgage Program
Print Sep 30, 2013 Thailand’s central bank chief has urged the government to minimize spending under populist schemes such as the rice mortgage program to help improve the country’s economy. He says that commodities subsidies could eventually make beneficiaries addicted to easy money and such subsidies should be corrected and kept to a minimum. The central bank chief’s advice comes in the wake of reported shortage of funds with the Thai government to run the rice mortgage program in 2013-14 due to low sales. There are also growing demands from rubber and corn farmers to implement a similar program. Under the rice mortgage program, the Thai government buys common white paddy rice from farmers at up to 15,000 baht per ton (about $478 per ton). However, high prices have made Thai rice uncompetitive in the international market. The government has made several attempts to lower the support prices, but it had to continue the program for the third consecutive year in 2013-14 due to resistance from farmers. The government plans to spend around 270 billion baht (about $8.6 billion) to buy around 16.5 million tons of paddy rice from farmers under the rice mortgage program 2013-14. Tags: Thailand rice mortgage scheme •
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- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/thailand-central-bank-chief-warns-againstpopulist-rice-mortgage-program#sthash.kmll2QKj.dpuf
Russia Expands Taman Port
Print Sep 30, 2013 The Russian government has ordered the expansion of the port of Taman to improve export of commodities, including grains, and to shift freight from the Black Sea ports of neighboring countries (mainly Ukraine, Turkey) to the port of Taman. Local sources told Oryza that at present, rice is exported via the ports of Novorossiysk and Temryuk, and the expansion of the port of Taman, which is in the same area, is expected to boost Russia’s rice export logistics capacity. Currently, the port of Taman is underutilized due to lack of railroad connections. According to the Russian government order, about 228 billion rubles (about $7 billion) will be spent in a government private partnership to establish a dry cargo port area in Taman and develop the existing infrastructure of the port in the western part of the Taman peninsula. The expansion is also expected to create additional jobs in the region. Russia’s rice production in 2013-14 is estimated at around 710,000 tons, and rice exports are estimated to reach around 230,000 tons, according to the USDA Post. Tags: russia rice exports •
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- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/russia-expands-tamanport#sthash.qDNnX6g9.dpuf
Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough Rice Futures Seen Lower Along With Other Grains
Print Sep 30, 2013 Chicago rough rice futures for November delivery were paused 3.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $15.365 per cwt (about $339 per ton) as of 8:30am Chicago time. The other grains are seen mostly lower during this morning break ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen trading about 0.5% lower, wheat is seen trading slightly lower, and corn is seen trading about 0.5% higher. •
U.S. stocks tumbled at the open Monday, as increasing worries over a government shutdown at the end of the day weighed on global markets. U.S. Treasuries ticked higher, driven by a bid for safe haven assets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined sharply at the open. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also opened lower. The country is facing its first government shutdown in 17 years, with only a few hours left for the House to pass a stand-alone spending bill which will fund the government through to December 15. Budget spending must be agreed by Congress before Tuesday, to prevent a shutdown which could force federal employees to take unpaid leave. U.S. stocks are currently trading about 1% lower, gold is currently trading about 1% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 1.5% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading about 0.5% lower at 8:30am Chicago time. Tags: chicago rough rice futures - See more at: http://oryza.com/news/cbot/oryza-overnight-recap-%E2%80%93-chicago-roughrice-futures-seen-lower-along-other-grains#sthash.tQeaAdiv.dpuf
South Korea Tenders to Buy 5,126 Tons of Rice Add new comment
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Print Sep 30, 2013 South Korea has issued a tender to purchase 5,126 tons of non-glutinous milled medium or short grain rice, according to the state-run Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation. The agency is looking for U.S. No. 1 rice but there is no restriction for the origin. The last date for submission of applications is October 14, 2013 and electronic bidding will be held from 10 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. on October 15, 2013. The delivery is expected to take place in December 2013. Tags: South Korea rice tender - See more at: http://oryza.com/news/tenders/south-korea-tenders-buy-5126-tonsrice#sthash.y2yTUDRH.dpuf •
South Korea Tenders to Buy 5,126 Tons of Rice •
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Print Sep 30, 2013 South Korea has issued a tender to purchase 5,126 tons of non-glutinous milled medium or short grain rice, according to the state-run Korea Agro-Fisheries & Food Trade Corporation. The agency is looking for U.S. No. 1 rice but there is no restriction for the origin. The last date for submission of applications is October 14, 2013 and electronic bidding will be held from 10 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. on October 15, 2013. The delivery is expected to take place in December 2013. Tags: South Korea rice tender - See more at: http://oryza.com/news/tenders/south-korea-tenders-buy-5126-tonsrice#sthash.Cq6fpKpG.dpuf •
Vietnam Exports 4.96 Million Tons of Rice in January 1 - September 26, 2013
Print Sep 30, 2013 •
Vietnam has exported around 4.96 million tons of rice in January 1 - September 26, 2013, according to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA). Total rice exports so far this year has earned the nation around $2.12 billion (FOB), suggesting an average rice export price of around $429 per ton (FOB). In September 1 - 26, 2013, Vietnam exported about 281,483 tons of rice worth around $122 million for average export prices of around $434 per ton which is up about 2% from about $426 per ton recorded in August, 2013, but down about 1% from around $440 per ton recorded in September 2012. According to the VFA, domestic paddy prices in the Mekong Delta for common stock stand at around VND 4,850 - 4,950 per kilogram (about $229 - $234 per ton, using current exchange rates).Vietnamese 5% broken domestic rice prices stand at around VND 6,600-6, 700 per kilogram (about $312 - $317 per ton, using current exchange rates), and 25% broken rice prices stand at around VND 6,400-6,500 per kilogram (about $303 - $307 per ton, using current exchange rates). Tags: Vietnam rice exports 2013, Vietnam Food Association (VFA)
- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/vietnam-exports-496-million-tons-rice-january1-september-26-2013#sthash.r5GaYIwO.dpuf
Vietnam Rice Sellers Increase Most of Their Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged
Print Sep 30, 2013 Vietnam rice sellers increased their quotes for 5% broken rice, 25% broken rice and Jasmine rice by about $5 per ton each to about $360 - $370 per ton, $335 - $345 per ton and $520 - $530 per ton respectively today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes unchanged. 5% Broken Rice Thai 5% rice is quoted around $420 - $430 per ton, about a $60 per ton premium over Viet 5% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $360 - $370 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian 5% rice is quoted around $415 - $425 per ton, about a $30 per ton premium over Pak 5% rice (of new crop) quoted around $385 - $395 per ton. 25% Broken Rice Thai 25% rice is quoted about $405 - $415 per ton, about a $70 per ton premium over Viet 25% rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $335 - $345 per ton, up about $5 per ton from Friday. Indian 25% rice is quoted about $375 - $385 per ton, about a $40 per ton premium over Pak 25% rice (of new crop) quoted around $335 - $345 per ton. Parboiled Rice Thai parboiled rice is quoted around $445 - $455 per ton. Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $405 - $415 per ton, about a $15 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice (of new crop) quoted around $420 - $430 per ton. 100% Broken Rice Thai broken rice, A1 Super, is quoted around $390 - $400 per ton, about a $65 per ton premium over Viet broken rice (of summer-autumn crop 2013) shown around $325 - $335 per ton. Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted about $310 - $320 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pak broken sortexed rice (of new crop) last quoted around $340 - $350 per ton. Tags: Asia rice quotes, Thailand rice quotes, India rice quotes, Pakistan rice quotes, Vietnam rice quotes - See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/vietnam-rice-sellers-increase-most-their-quotesother-asia-rice-quotes-unchanged#sthash.6gAQEn0f.dpuf •
India State Announces $10 Per Ton Bonus Over 2013-14 Paddy Minimum Support Price
Print Sep 30, 2013 •
India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu has announced a bonus of around Rs. 50 – 70 per quintal (about $10 per ton) of paddy, over the minimum support prices announced by the central government for 2013-14. In Tamil Nadu, farmers can now sell their common paddy rice variety to the government at Rs. 1,360 per quintal (about $216 per ton) and grade A paddy rice variety at Rs. 1,415 per quintal (about $224 per ton) from October 1, 2013. The central government had increased the minimum support price of paddy rice by around 16% from the previous year in 2012-13. In comparison the y/y increase in MSP was about 5% in 2013-14. The Chhattisgarh state had announced a bonus of about $50 per ton over the central government support prices last year. A similar thing may happen in several states in India in the coming months to please voters ahead of general elections in 2014, say local sources. Tags: India rice prices
- See more at: http://oryza.com/news/rice-news/india-state-announces-10-ton-bonus-over-201314-paddy-minimum-support-price#sthash.8PuIdWL9.dpuf
October 2nd, 2013 Long grain white rice - high quality Thailand 100% B grade
425-435
Vietnam 5% broken
360-370
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India 5% broken
415-425
↔
Pakistan 5% broken
385-395
↔
Cambodia 5% broken 445-455
↔
U.S. 4% broken
600-610
↔
Uruguay 5% broken
615-625
↔
Argentina 5% broken 615-625
↔
↔
Long grain white rice - low quality Thailand 25% broken 400-410
↔
Vietnam 25% broken 335-345
↔
Pakistan 25% broken 335-345
↔
India 25% broken
370-380
↓
U.S. 15% broken
575-585
↔
Long grain parboiled rice Thailand parboiled 100% stxd
435-445
↔
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd
420-430
↔
India parboiled 5% broken stxd
400-410
↓
U.S. parboiled 4% broken
660-670
↔
Brazil parboiled 5% broken
580-590
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken
↔
NQ
↔
1110-1120
↔
Long grain fragrant rice Thailand Hommali 92% Vietnam Jasmine
530-540
India basmati 2% broken
↔
1515 -1525
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
↔
↔
Brokens Thailand A1 Super
390-400
↔
Vietnam 100% broken 330-340
↔
Pakistan 100% broken stxd
340-350
↔
India 100% Broken stxd
310-320
↔
Egypt medium grain brokens NQ U.S. pet food 370-380 Brazil half grain
↔
↔
345-355
↔
Medium grain milled U.S. Calrose 4% broken
645-655
Egypt medium grain 6%
NQ
↔
↔
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com - See more at: http://oryza.com/global-news/oryza-quick-glance-worldnews#sthash.ikp0FVVQ.dpuf