PAK-SCMS BULLETIN PAKISTAN: SATELLITE BASED CROP MONITORING SYSTEM Government of Pakistan
Volume II, Issue 11
Prelude: SUPARCO, the National Space Agency of Pakistan, has developed algorithms, techniques and procedures for fast track release of reliable and reproducible information on agriculture. FAO, UN is contributing in improvement of this bulletin through provision of technical advice. The other organizations collaborating in this endeavor are:
1-November-2012
Crop Situation: October, 2012
The Kharif and Rabi seasons integrate into each other during the month of October. The Kharif crops progressively lose chlorophyll contents, culminating the process of photosynthetic activity and reaching maturity. The harvest operation of Kharif crops kick off in October and stretch over to November and beyond. This includes harvest of rice, chilies, autumn maize & onions and other seasonal Pakistan Meteorological crops. The picking of cotton starts Department (PMD) much earlier but ends in synchroniza Provincial Crop Reporting tion with the above crops. The harServices (CRS) National Fertilizer Develop- vest of sugarcane starts by mid November and continues up to February ment Center (NFDC) and Indus River System Authority or March. The growth patterns of all (IRSA). above crops slow down during October and onwards, ending up in senescence of crop plants. This phenomenon is appreciably obvious in the form Inside this issue: of falling values of vegetation indices Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 31st October, 2012 of the satellite images. Crop Situation Octo1 ber, 2012 Ghazi Khan accruing from Rodkohis, flash floods and rains. The extent of The month of October also makes a the flooded area was 187.2 thousand ha and loss of cotton crop was 43 Crops Statistics 2012-13 2-4 debut in sowing of Rabi crops. The thousand bales. sowing of chickpeas, oilseeds, vegetaNormalized Difference bles and fodders was completed dur- The estimates released by SUPARCO place cotton production at 13.9 Vegetation Index 5-7 ing this month. The sowing of potato million bales from an area at 3.442 million ha. The price of cotton re(NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional & crop was also completed in the maize mained in the range of Rs. 2200-2700 per 40 kg. Cotton in most of the -potato-maize cropping patterns. The fields is/will be harvested in a few days and most of this area will be sown sowing of wheat was initiated in Oc- under wheat crop during late November or in December. Vegetation Difference, 8 31st October, 2012 tober and continues through next two months. The sowing of wheat For rice, there were colossal damages at a little more than 0.4 million tons Temporal Vegetation starts from rain-fed areas after maize viz. Sindh 301 thousand tons, Balochistan 92 thousand tons and Punjab 13 9-11 changes harvest, availing moisture conserved thousand tons. The rice crop estimate by SUPARCO is 7.2 million tons. from monsoon rains. In irrigated ar- The harvesting of coarse rice started in October in all provinces. Most of Agro-met Conditions: 12 Oct, 2012 eas, the sowing of wheat crop in Oc- this harvesting was completed during October. The harvesting of basmati tober, is generally confined to fallow rice started in October and will be completed by mid of November. Maximum-Minimum lands. The sowing of wheat in cottonTemperature: Oct, 13-14 wheat and rice-wheat cropping patRains/floods in Sindh (Jacobabad & Shikarpur) and Balochistan (Jafferabad & 2012 tern will be completed in subsequent Nasirabad) caused damage to rice crop. Similarly there were extensive months, after the harvest of cotton damages to cotton crop in Rajanpur and Dera Ghazi Khan districts of PunIrrigation Water Supply 15 and rice crops. Situation: Oct, 2012 jab. These areas suffering damage in Punjab will be available for sowing of wheat crops. However, part of the flood areas in Sindh and Balochistan Daily Hydrological During Kharif season, there have been may not be available for sowing of Rabi crops, with water ponding over Status at Indus Basin: 16 extensive damage to standing crops extended timelines. Oct, 2012 by floods from monsoon rains. The revised losses for cotton and rice The harvesting of sugarcane, by diktat of Sugarcane Factory Act 1950, is Fertilizer Situation: 17 crops have been estimated at Rs. 27.6 designed to be started in October each year. This year, as in the past, Oct, 2012 billion viz. cotton Rs. 12.4 billion and sugarcane crushing will be delayed from the above legislated harvesting Field view crops in Pun18-19 rice Rs. 15.2 billion. In cotton, there schedule. The crop production by SUARCO is estimated at 68.5 million jab Oct, 2012 was an extensive damage to the crop tons from an area of 1.24 million ha. in the districts of Rajanpur and Dera Maize Crop 2012-13
20
Pakistan Satellite based Crop Monitoring System Bulletin is a joint monthly publication of SUPARCO and FAO, UN.
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Crops Statistics 2012-13 Cotton Crop The picking of February sown cotton started in June and the picking of May sown cotton started in September. The cotton picking touched peak in October. The cotton picked in October is of the best quality with respect to Micronaire, fiber strength and other characters. The cotton varieties introduced during the year 2011 and 2012 are as follows:
S.No 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
Variety BH - 167 CIM - 573 FH – 942 NIAB - 852 NIBGE - 115 SLH - 317 A- One
Institute/organization CRS, PCCC, Bahawalpur CCRI, PCCC, Multan CRI, AARI, Faisalabad NIAB, Faisalabad NIBGE, Faisalabad CRS, Sahiwal M/s Weal AG Co, Multan
S.No 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.
Variety Bt CIM - 598 FH - 114 IR – NIBGE - 3 MNH - 886 NS - 141 Sitara - 009 Tarzen - 1
Institute/organization CCRI, PCCC, Multan CRI, AARI, Faisalabad NIBGE, Faisalabad CRS, AARI, Multan M/s Neelum seeds, Vehari M/s Agri Farm Services, Multan M/s Four Brothers, Lahore
The statistics of cotton arrivals by 1st November released by Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) indicate the arrivals in Punjab were 4.303 million bales against 5.004 million bales last year, down by 0.700 million bales (14 percent). In Sindh the situation of cotton arrivals improved to 2.548 million bales against 1.699 million bales last year, an increase of 0.849 million bales (50 percent). On the whole, the cotton arrivals were at 6.851 million bales against 6.704 million bales last year. There is an increase of 0.147 million bales (almost 2.2 %) during 2012 against the year 2011.
Province Punjab Sindh Total
Cotton Arrivals in Ginneries (000 Bales)- 1stNovember 2012 4303.1 2548.0 6851.1
2011 5004.5 1699.2 6703.7
Change 000 bales (-) 701.4 848.8 147.4
Percent (-)14.0 49.9 2.2
The cotton statistics for 2012-13 are as follows:
Province Punjab Sindh Balochistan Total
Area
SUPARCO 2012-13+ Yield Production
Crop Reporting Services 2012-13 Area Yield Production
000 ha
Kg/ha
million bales
000 ha
Kg/ha
million bales
2622 780 40 3442
650 820 500 687
10.0 3.8 0.1 13.9
2356.4* 572.4* 41.0** 2969.8 **
649** 1059** 415** 777**
9.000** 3.560** 0.100** 13.660**
+ SUPARCO estimates are inclusive of damage of 43000 bales of cotton over an area of 17.2 thousand ha. * First estimate by Crop Reporting Services (CRS). ** These data are courtesy of the Cotton Assessment Committee of the Ministry of Textile.
Rice Crop The rice crop was affected by flash floods in Jacobabad, Kashmore, Shikarpur, Jafferabad, Nasirabad and some other areas. The damages mostly accrued in the low lying areas, submerged under deep water. A ground validation team of SUPARCO visited these areas during 2-4th October 2012 along with the local authorities of Agriculture Extension and Crop Reporting Services of Sindh Government based in Shikarpur and Jacobabad districts. The peripheral areas were also damaged.
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The rice crop damages have been worked at about 406 thousand tons viz. 301 thousand tons in Sindh, 92 thousand tons in Balochistan and 13 thousand tons in Punjab. The value of the damage at Rs. 1000 per 40 kg of paddy or Rs. 1500 for IRRI rice (Rs. 37500 per ton) is estimated at Rs. 15.2 billion. The harvesting of coarse rice in Sindh and Punjab started in October and has been mostly completed. The harvesting of basmati rice in Punjab started in October and will be completed by mid of November. Because of excessive rains during late August and September, the crop growth was generally good. The rice statistics for 2012-13 are as follows:
Area
Province Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Total
SUPARCO 2012-13 Yield Production
Provincial Crop Reporting Services 2012-13 Area Yield Production
000 ha
Kg/ha
million tons
000 ha
Kg/ha
million tons
1990 810 73 109 2982
2097 3134 1910 3249 2416
4.2 2.5 0.1 0.4 7.2
1703.9 * ** ** ** **
** ** ** ** **
** ** ** ** **
* First estimates by Provincial Crop Reporting Services. ** Data not released.
Sugarcane The crushing of sugarcane by design of provincial legislation has to begin from 1st October. However, it is a usually delayed. About 3 percent of the sugarcane area harvested early, is used for sowing of wheat crop. SUPARCO last year estimated sugarcane production of about 70 million tons. The sugarcane year 2012-13 (1-October to 30-September) started with an opening stock of 1.1 million tons of sugar. The ECC of the Cabinet has already allowed an export of surplus 0.2 million tons. The sugarcane statistics for 2012-13 are as follows:
Province Punjab Sindh KP Total
SUPARCO 2012-13 Area Yield Production 000 ha tons/ha million tons 850.7 56.0 47.6 290.2 56.8 16.5 99.4 43.7 4.3 1240.3 55.2 68.5
Crop Reporting Services 2012-13 Area Yield Production 000 ha tons/ha million tons 756.8 * ** ** 271.1* ** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
* First estimates by Provincial Crop Reporting Services ** Data not released The statistics released by Pakistan Sugar mills Association are as follows.
Sugarcane Year 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08
Area million ha 1.06 0.987 0.943 1.029 1.241
Yield Tons /ha 55.2 55.9 52.4 48.6 51.5
Production million tons 58.37 55.31 49.37 50.04 63.92
Cane Crushed
Sugar Produced
million tons
million tons
48.00 44.51 34.61 33.14 52.78
4.65 4.12 3.13 3.13 4.74
% Recovery 9.68 9.25 9.05 9.46 8.98
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Maize Maize is a highly important crops for promotion of livestock sector, as it an essential component of feed ingredient. There are two growing seasons of maize i.e spring and autumn. Punjab avails both seasons of maize growing, KP grows maize only during autumn season. The maize crop cultivation is not popular crop in Sindh and Balochistan, because of economic factors. The Sindh has massive attraction for supply of fodders for urban livestock and for vegetables and fruits for Metropolitan Karachi and Hyderabad cities.
Rabi Crops Sowing of oilseed crops started in September and wheat started at the end of October in Potohar and other barani areas. The sowing of wheat crop in fallow fields of irrigated areas would start in November and that in the cotton-wheat and rice-wheat cropping pattern during December. Zero tillage sowing of wheat crop was propagated by agriculture department but like most of other public sector investment programs, the adaptation was subdued and it did not pick up, once the support from public sector dried up. In Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the conditions seem to be favorable for wheat sowing in normal tempo. In Sindh, a diminutive decrease in wheat area is likely to accrue due to continuing flood water inundation. The fields from where, the water can not be drained in November may not be available for wheat sowing except for the dismal practice of sowing by broadcasting seeds in the standing water. The estimated loss of wheat production has been estimated at about 150 thousand tons viz. Sindh 90 thousand tons and in Balochistan 60 thousand tons. In addition, there is also loss of chickpeas, oilseeds, fodders, vegetables and other crops. The cumulative loss in both these provinces during Rabi season is estimated at around Rs. 6 billion. The potato crop was sown after harvesting of autumn maize in Sahiwal division of Punjab, during October. The sowing of gram/chickpeas crop was started in October and will be completed by mid November. The wheat crop statistics during the last two years, as released by SUPARCO and Provincial Crop reporting Services was as follows:
Province Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Pakistan
Wheat Crop Estimate by SUPARCO 2011-12 2011-12 2011-12 2010-11 Area Yield Production Area 000 ha Kg/ha 000 tons 000 ha 6621.0 2770 18340.2 6695.00 1482.2 2519 3733.7 1509.00 757.9 1599 1211.9 645.20 349.0 2133 744.4 305.00 9210.1 2609 24030.2 9154.20
2010-11 Yield Kg/ha 2764 2585 2015 1968 2655
Wheat Crop Estimate by Provincial Crop Reporting Services 2011-12 2011-12 2011-12 2010-11 2010-11 Province Punjab Sindh KP Balochistan Pakistan
Area 000 ha 6500 1100 700 400 8700
Yield Kg/ha 2723 3364 1571 2000 2678
Production 000 tons 17700 3700 1100 800 23300
Area 000 ha 6691.0 1144.4 724.5 340.8 8900.7
Yield Kg/ha 2846 3747 1595 2139 2833
2010-11 Production 000 tons 18505.0 3900.8 1300.1 600.2 24306.1
2010-11 Production 000 tons 19041 4287.9 1155.8 729.1 25213.8
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Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level SUPARCO is acquiring MODIS 250 m resolution data on daily basis and SPOT VGT data on 10 daily basis to assess crop growth. SPOT-5 high resolution data are being acquired during each cropping season to assess land surface changes in image classification. The graphs depicting temporal changes for various regions are as follows:
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Divisional Level
Volume II, Issue 11
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI): Crop Growth Profile at Provincial level
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Vegetation Change in October, 2012
Vegetation Change 2012 vs. 2011 during October
Satellite Imagery: SPOT VGT 1000m
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Temporal Change: Kallar Tract, Punjab
Temporal Change: Sahiwal Division, Punjab
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Temporal Change: Larkana Division, Sindh
Temporal Change: Indus delta, Sindh
Temporal Change: Southern Punjab
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m
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Temporal Change: Sindh
Temporal Change: Peshawar Valley, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Temporal Change: Pat Feeder Area of Balochistan
Sowing/Land preparation
Active Growth
Maturity
Harvesting
Satellite Imagery: MODIS 250m
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
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Agro-Met Conditions: October, 2012 The agro met conditions in October were as follows: a) Rainfall
Month
Province
Cumulative Rainfall Bhawalnagar 16 mm, Bahawalpur 3 mm, Chakwal 25 mm, D G Khan 9 mm, Faisalabad 28 mm, Islamabad 6 mm, Jhang 50 mm, Joharabad 11 mm, Jhelum 12 mm, Kamra 9 mm, Lahore 29 mm, M B din 6 mm, Mianwali 14 mm, Multan 4 mm, Mangla 2 mm, Muree 20 mm, Noorpur Thal 18 mm, Okara 13 mm, Gujranwala 4 mm, Sahiwal 3 mm, Sargodha 19 mm, Sialkot 6 mm, T. T. Singh 19 mm Astore 10 mm, Garhi Dopatta 7 mm, Gupis 20 mm, Kotli 7 mm, Muzafarabad 25 mm, Hunza 3 mm, Rawalakot 29 mm, Pattan 60 mm, Balakot 16 mm, Bannu 3 mm, Cherat 18 mm, Chitral 4 mm, Kakul 33 mm, Dir 69 mm, Lower Dir 14 mm, Drosh 23 mm, Kalam 48 mm, Kohat 13 mm, Malam Jabba 34 mm, Parachinar 77 mm, Peshawar 16 mm, Risalpur 37 mm, Saidu Sharif 20 mm
Punjab
October 2012
Gigit Baltistan/ Azad Kashmir Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Sindh
Shaheed Benazir Abad 1 mm
Balochistan
Lasbela 66 mm, Turbat 4 mm,
Monthly Cumulative Precipitation: October 2012
October 2011
Disputed Territory
Disputed Territory
Monthly Temperature: October, 2012 Minimum Temperature
Maximum Temperature
Disputed Territory
Disputed Territory
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Maximum Temperature : October, 2012 The range of maximum temperature during October, 2012 were as follows:
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Minimum Temperature : October, 2012 The range of minimum temperature during October, 2012 were as follows:
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
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Volume II, Issue 11
Irrigation Water Supply Situation : October 2012 The irrigation water supplies were generally short in Punjab,KP and Balochistan during October 2012 compared to corresponding period of last year. The shortfall was 1.3 percent in Punjab with 4 percent in Jehlum-Chenab zone mainly. The water supply in Indus zone of Punjab was 1.8 percent higher than last year. The shortfall in K.P was 6.8 percent. The shortfall in Balochistan was 68 percent. The water supply in Sindh during October was 75 percent higher than last year. Punjab JhelumMonth
Aug
2012
Sep
Oct
Total
Indus
Total
3.441 3.445 -0.004 -0.11 1.924 2.249 -0.325 -14.46 2.174 2.135 0.039 1.82 7.539 7.829 -0.290 -3.71
6.783 6.645 0.138 2.08 4.477 4.534 -0.058 -1.27 4.551 4.612 -0.061 -1.32 15.811 15.791 0.020 0.12
Year
2012 2011 Change % change 2012 2011 Change % change 2012 2011 Change % change 2012 2011 Change % change
Sindh
KP
Balochistan
Total
0.176 0.155 0.020 13.15 0.073 0.117 -0.044 -37.29 0.139 0.150 -0.010 -6.76 0.389 0.422 -0.033 -7.90
0.523 0.508 0.015 2.89 0.095 0.268 -0.173 -64.44 0.052 0.164 -0.113 -68.64 0.669 0.940 -0.271 -28.80
15.079 11.937 3.142 26.32 7.843 6.210 1.632 26.29 8.103 6.842 1.261 18.43 31.024 24.989 6.035 24.15
Million Acre Feet
3.343 3.201 0.142 4.44 2.553 2.285 0.268 11.72 2.376 2.476 -0.100 -4.04 8.272 7.962 0.310 3.89
7.597 4.628 2.969 64.14 3.197 1.291 1.906 147.62 3.361 1.916 1.445 75.41 14.155 7.836 6.320 80.65
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Daily Hydrological Status at Indus Basin: October, 2012 SUPARCO is closely monitoring hydrological status at Indus basin and water reservoirs capacity. With onset of monsoon, the reservoirs capacity has started building up. At the end of October, the water level in Tarbela was 1516.43 feet above mean sea level (amsl) and Mangla 1188.85 feet.
Reservoir Level(feet) above mean sea Level on the date of Reservoir 1-Oct 11-Oct 20-Oct 31-Oct Full Capacity 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 Tarbela 1546.12 1546.52 1535.74 1534.20 1526.59 1537.90 1516.43 1536.08 1550.00 Mangla 1205.40 1209.30 1200.60 1191.20 1194.90 1201.90 1188.85 1198.00 1242.00 The inflows at RIM stations at Indus and other rivers are as follows:
October 2012: Daily River Water Inflow (000 cusecs) Indus at Indus at Indus at Jhelum at Chenab at Kabul at Day Tarbela Chashma Taunsa Mangla Marala Nowshera 1 54.5 120.7 80.6 23.1 18.8 15.3 2 54.6 96.8 80.6 21.4 20.4 14.2 3 51.1 111.3 72.5 19.8 18.5 13.5 4 52.4 95.7 70.8 18.1 16.9 13.0 5 51.2 98.5 70.8 18.1 17.9 12.4 6 47.4 91.2 74.6 16.5 16.9 18.8 8 46.8 85.8 74.5 16.5 18.4 10.3 9 45.9 77.1 75.1 17.0 16.7 10.7 10 44.5 77.9 70.9 15.9 12.8 10.2 11 43.6 79.1 72.3 14.4 12.0 9.8 12 43.3 80.3 72.3 12.9 11.5 10.4 13 41.0 83.6 69.8 15.8 11.2 10.6 15 36.8 83.0 67.3 14.5 11.2 10.1 16 41.2 68.9 61.5 14.5 13.8 10.1 17 39.5 68.6 59.7 14.5 14.4 10.2 18 38.6 63.5 61.5 14.5 10.8 12.0 19 38.1 63.0 56.5 12.5 13.0 11.6 20 37.0 63.4 55.9 13.9 10.4 10.9 22 37.8 61.5 55.7 14.3 10.9 12.4 23 35.4 72.0 54.3 12.3 12.7 12.0 24 34.9 62.3 54.3 14.2 9.2 12.2 25 32.8 61.4 54.3 14.2 9.7 11.7 30 30.8 50.6 48.7 11.1 8.5 11.2 31 29.9 57.6 48.7 11.2 8.5 10.5 Condition No Flood No Flood No Flood No Flood No Flood No Flood
Source: Punjab Irrigation Department, Lahore
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Fertilizer Situation: October, 2012 As per report of the National Fertilizer Development Center indicates that the total availability of urea during Rabi 2012-13 is estimated as 2996 thousand tons. This includes 684 thousand tons of opening balance, 1900 thousand tons of domestic production and 412 thousand of imports. The estimated off take of urea is projected at 3 millions tons. The available quantity DAP in Rabi 2012-13 would be 943 tons. This comprises 227 thousand tons of opening inventory, 336 thousand tons domestic production and 380 thousand tons of imported supplies. The estimated off take of DAP is 785 thousand tons. The estimated closing inventory will be around 158 thousand tons. 2012-13 Month
2011-12
Nitrogen Phosphate Potash
Total
Nitrogen Phosphate
% Change
Potash
Total
Nitrogen Phosphate
Potash
Total
(000 tons)
Aug Sep Sub Total Oct* Total
173.7 168 341.7 266.6 608.3
32.2 102 134.2 128.5 262.7
0.5 206.38 3.2 273.2 3.7 479.58 2.8 397.9 6.48 877.48
*P= Provincial assumed at the level of last year
296.2 289.8 586 288.5 874.5
49.9 70.5 120.4 104.8 225.2
1.7 2.3 4 2.8 6.8
347.8 362.6 710.4 396.1 1106.5
-41.4 -42.0 -41.7 -7.6 -30.4
-35.5 44.7 11.5 22.6 16.7
-71.8 39.1 -8.0 0.0 -4.7
-40.7 -24.7 -32.5 0.5 -20.7
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PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
Field View of Crops in Punjab: October 2012 Cotton at boll formation
Cotton at picking stage
Cotton crop at Kamalia
Sugarcane crop at Kamalia
Rice crop at Kamalia
Maize harvesting at Kamalia
Rice field at Toba Tek Singh
Cotton and Sugarcane at Toba Tek Singh
Autumn maize at Kamalia
Corn hervesting at Toba Tek Singh
Corn cobs sun drying
Corn cobs for sun drying at Toba Tek Singh
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Field View of Crops in Potohar: October 2012 Filed preparation at Rawalpindi
Filed preparation at Gujar Khan
Prepared filed at Gujar Khan
Fertilizer for Wheat filed
Farmer at work
Field preparation at Mandra
Millet pile at Gujar khan
Wheat germination in Gujar Khan
Prepared field at Gujra khan
Early sown Wheat at Mandra
Farmer at work in Cucurbits field at Mandra
Cucurbits field at Mandra
PAK-SCMS BULLETIN
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Maize Crop 2012-13
SUPARCO Autumn Maize Estimates 2012-13 Province
Area
Yield
Production
000 ha
Kg/ha
000 tons
Punjab
470.4
4909
2309.2
KP
441.2
1817
801.6
911.6
3412
3110.8
Total
Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission SPARCENT, Islamabad, Main Islamabad Highway 44000, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel.: (+92) 51 4611792 Fax: (+92) 51 4611796 E-mail: sgs@ suparco.net.pk http://www.suparco.gov.pk
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