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CHRIS ANDERSON la Tong bien tap tap chf Wired. Ong tung la bien tap vien phu trach thuong mai ciia tap chf The Economist. Ong bit dau su nghiep tai hai xb bao khoa hoc uy tin la Science va Nature. Ong cd bang khoa hoc, chuyen nganh vat ly tai Dai hoc George Washington, nghien cdu Co hoc Luong tur va Khoa hoc Bdo chi tai Dai hoc California d Berkeley. Vdi cuon Cai duoi dai, ong da gianh duoc giai thudng Gerald Loeb danh cho cuon sach ve kinh doanh hay nhat trong nam.

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THE LONG TAIL. Copyright © 2006, 2008 Chris Anderson. Nha xuat ban Tre dOc quy£n xuat ban ban tigng Vi§t theo Hpp ddng nhugng quy6n thdng qua Brockman Inc., thang 9.2006. The Translation and Publication of this book in Vietnamese language made possible through the financial support of the Public Affairs Section, Consulate General of the United States of America in Ho Chi Minh City. Sach dugrc dich va xu£t ban bang tigng Viet voi su h6 tro- ve tai chinh ciia Phong Th6ng tin - Van hba, T6ng Lanh sv quan Hoa Ky tai Thanh phd Ho Chi Minh. BMJ GHI BEN MUC TRUOt XUAT BAN DlOC THI/CHI6N B0TrHUVl6N KHTH TPH . CM Anderson, Chris, 1961Cii duoi dai I Chris Anderson; Nguyen Hong Quang [va nh.ng. khic] d. - T.P. Hb CW Minh: Tre, 2009. 436 tr.;21cra. Nguyen ban: The long tail. 1. Phan khuc thi trifling. 2. Marketing Internet. 3. Marketing—Doi mdi cong nghe. I. Nguyen Hong Quang d. II. Ts. III. Ts: The long tail. 658.802 -dc22 SWilll Ill I IIIIIIIII A54S J III IIllllIII llllI lllll II

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CAIDUOlDAI CHRIS ANDERSON Ngudi djch: NguySn H6ng Quang Vol su tham gia bin dich ban <S&u cua: NguySn Minh Ngoc - LS Hdng Vin

Chju trach nhifm xuat ban: Ts.QuachThuNguyft Bien tip: Twang Quy Bia: Bui Nam Sua bin in: Wt Trung Ky thu4t vi tinh: Thanh Ha

NHA X U A T B A N T R E

161B Lv Chinh Thing • Quan 3 • Thanh ph6' H6 Chi Minh DT: 39316289 - 39316211 - 38465595 • 38465596 • 39350973 Fax: 84.8.38437450 • E-mail: nxbtre@hcm.vnn.vn Website: http://www.nxbtre.com.vn CHI NHANH NHA XUAT BAN TRE TAI HA NOI

20 ng« 91, Nguyin Chf Thanh, Qufln Dong Da - Ha Nc}i DT & Fax: (04)37734544 E-mail: vanphongnxbtre@hn.vnn.vn

Kh6 13x20,5cm. S6': 72-2009/CXB/03-09/Tre. Quy§'t dinh xua't ban so': 65A/QD-Tre, ngay 9 thang 02 nam 2009. I n 3.000 cuon, tai X i nghi$p I n Nguyin Minh Hoang. DC: 100 L§ Dai Hanh, P.7, Q . l l , TP.HCM. DT: 38555812. In xong va npp lull chieu thang 02 nam 2009.

"Cai duoi dai la mot trong nhung cuon sach gay chu y nhat trong nam" - Businessweek "Cuon sach Cai duoi dai ciia Chris Anderson da lam dUOc dieu ma chi co nhung cuon sach hay nhat lam dtfot - kham pha mot hien tUQrng dang dien ra ma khong ai cd the phu nhan, va dua ra ly giai ro rang ve hien tuong do" - Bao dien tu Slate "Cuon sach cua Chris Anderson vara sau sac vita hap dan, dac biet neu ban thich theo doi nhting net lap lanh duoc tao ra khi thudng mai va van hoa hoa quyen vdi nhau". - Miami Herald "Chris Anderson, bien tap vien ciia tap chi Wired, da chi ra viec the gioi ky thuat so da tao dc?ng luc moi cho nhung quan tam doi vol cac san pham ngach nhu the nao... Cai duoi dai la su suy ngam ve hien tUotig do va kham pha ra nhirng su lua chon cho nhUng ai muon tim kiem nhirng san pham ngach". - The Globe and Mail "Trong tac pham rat dang doc nay, Anderson da dua ra mpt 16 trinh cho tucfng lai ciia nganh thuong mai, mot 10 trinh co the se lam sang to ban khoan ciia nhieu ngudi - ca ngudi ban hang va khach hang". - The Plain Dealer "Neu ban dang ban bat cu thu" gi co the duoc t|p hop lai vol nhau, nhu sach, am nhac, phim anh, phan mem va san

pham ky thuat so ma khong can cac trung tam phan phoi, Cai duoi dai co the la cuon sach hudng d i n giup ban trd thanh mot doanh nghiep thanh cong." - Business 2.0 "Toi dat Anderson va tac pham cua ong ngang hang vdi Malcolm Gladwell va Clayton M. Christensen theo nghia ong la mot trong nhirng manh ghep quan trong ve ly luan kinh doanh trong ky nguyen toan cau ky thuat so dang noi len". - Alan T. Saracevi, San Francisco Chronicle "Khong nghi ngd gi ntia, khai niem Cai duoi dai se viet lai phan ldn each chiing ta tiep can kinh te hoc ung dung va cuon sach nay la mQt cuon sach giao khoa tuyet vdi" - Rocky Mountain News Cong nghe va Internet dang bien the gidi trd nen nho hon va ket noi hem. Cai duoi dai la cuon sach dau tien giai thich chinh xac ve kha nang tiep can cac thi trudng ngach se tao ra cd hoi ldn nhu the nao." - Terry Semel, CEO, Yahoo! "Cai duoi dai la mot su thanh cong hiem thay: No viet ve mot chii de dudng nhu khong xa la - linh vuc ban va mua va khien chiing ta nghi ve chii de do theo mot each hoan toan mdi. Day la cuon sach dac biet thong minh va cung dua ra quan niem lac quan ve nhirng lu|t le mdi cua the gidi ma d do tat ca mpi ngudi cd the tim thay mot so dieu tam dac." - James Surowiecki, tac gia cuon sach The Wisdom of Crouds

Tang

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LOI CAM ON

GIOI THIEU

1 CAI DUOI DAI 39 2 SU HUNG THjNH VA SUY VONG CUA SAN PHAM HIT

3 LUOC SU CAI DUOI DAI

4 BA NGUON LUC CUA cAl DUOI DAl

101

5 MOT THE HE CAC NHA SAN XUAT MOI

Ill

6 NHUNG THI TRUONG MOI

159

7 NHUNG NGUOI TAO THI HIEU MOI

179

8 KINH TE HOC CAl DUOI DAl

220

9 CAl DAu NGAN

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10 THIEN DUONG CUA SU LUA CHON

287

II NHUNG NEN VAN HOA NGACH

303

12 M A N H I N H V O T A N

330

13 KHONG CHI LA GlAl TRI

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14 QUY LUAT CAl DUOI DAl

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15 CAl DUOI DAI MARKETING

386

Doan cu6i: CAl DUOI CUA TUONG LAI 423 LOI BAT

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Cuon sach nay nhan duoc dong gop tu" hang nghin nguoi n h d qua t r i n h tiep nhan y kien tuong d6i md, bat dau bang m o t bai bao duoc biet den rong rai va sau do la viec dua len blog trong qua t r i n h viet. Toi phai cam o n nhieu nguoi, ca trong phan cam on nay va phan chu thich 6" cuoi cuon sach. Nguoi dau tien ngoai ban than t o i da l a m viec cue nhoc nhat cWnh la vo toi, Anne. Khong mot d u an nao giong n h u d u an nay co the duoc hoan tat neu thieu su t r o gitip ciia m o t doi tac dac l u c Anne vuot qua tยงt ca tieu chuan ciia m o t doi tac n h u the. Su ling ho hen tuc va cam thong ciia co ay da giiip bien dieu do thanh hien thuc; nhung gi co ay phai trai qua that khong don gian, tut viec trong b o n tre vao tat ca cac Chti nhat t r o n g k h i t o i l a m viec tai Starbucks, den nhirng b u o i t o i khong duoc nghi ngoi, nhung k y nghi phai of nha, nhurig bila an t o i 6" nha hang khong thuc hien duoc va tat ca nhirng kho khan khac co the co do t o i phai tap t r u n g toan t a m toan y vao cuon sach nay. Nhung h o n het, co ay con la tro" t h u dac luc ciia toi, nguoi doc dau tien ciia toi, nguoi co van, ban tam tinh va la nguon k h i c h le va dong vien vo tan. (Cac con ciia chiing t o i Daniel, Erin, Toby, va Isabel cung mat m o t nam khong duoc su quan t a m nhieu ciia cha, va t o i cam on tat ca 11

CAI DUOI DAI da co each cu x i i diing muc va hy vong la quang t h o i gian ay khong de lai vet seo vinh vien nao). Trong qua t r i n h nghien cuu va xay dung n o i dung cuon sach, t o i that may man co su cong tac cua hai trong so nhung bo 6c l a m viec va t u duy sac sao nhat tren hanh t i n h la Louis Rossetto va Jane Metcalfe, hai ngudi ban, hang x o m va ngudi sang lap ra tap chi Wired,

nhi2ng n g u d i da cho t o i m u o n van p h o n g

Berkeley tuyet dep trong vai thang vao mua he nam 2005. (Toi la mot "hoc gia tai gia", mot danh hieu cho t o i cam giac la ngudi thong m i n h hon). Va mot ngudi ban than khac, Peter Schwartz, da cho t o i muon dia diem dep khong k e m trong van phong Emeryville cua Global Business Network, noi t o i da thuc hien phan xay dung y tudng l d n va thao lu$n vol tro ly viet ciia t o i la 1

Steven Leckart. Nhung doi tac khac ciia t o i la nhung dong nghiep tai tap chi Wired, dac biet la Bob Conn va Thomas Goetz, nha dieu hanh va t r d ly bien tap. H Q da dua ra nhung y tudng thong minh, khuyen khich va l a m giiip toi cong viec trong k h i toi phai tap trung phan ldn thdi gian vao cuoi sach. Bob cung la ngudi hieu d i n h bai bao Cai duoi dai lan dau tien, giup t o i IQC ra nhirng lap luan va dan y, mot su dong gop cd hieu qua cho den hien nay. Nhirng b i n h luan ciia Melanie Cornwell ve ban viet tay da chi ra nhieu l o i trong van hoa pop. Toi cung cam on Blaise Zerega, vdi t u each la quan ly bien tap da giu" cho co xe tiep tuc lan banh k h i t o i vang mat ban thdi gian, va Joana Pearstein, giam doc d u an 12

LOI CAM ON ciia chiing toi, ngudi da giup cung cap nhieu h i n h ve t r o n g giai doan b a n dau. T o i dac b i e t cam o n Si Newhouse v i da t i n t o i v o l nhung y tudng goi m d ban dau va cho phep t o i nghi den phat trien y tudng thanh cuon sach nay. Gidi hoc gia dong gop quan trong trong viec luong hoa anh hudng ciia Cai duoi dai va kham pha tac dong ciia chiing. Erik B r y n j o l f s s o n ciia T r u d n g Oman ly Sloan, MIT, va Jeffrey H u ciia trudng Quan ly Krannert da dua ra Udc lUOng ve Cai duoi dai ciia Amazon, dieu da giup t o i h i n h thanh khung phan tich de tu do xay dung ly thuyet va ciing co niem t i n rang cd the hoan thanh d u an. Nghien cuu khong ngung ciia ho trong l m h vuc nay rat dang chii y, va su ling ho ciia ho doi vol cong t r i n h ciia t o i rat dang tran trong. Tai Trudng k i n h doanh Harvard, cong t r i n h ciia Anita Elberse ve Cai duoi dai ciia Netflix va DVD rat h u u ich va t o i m o n g ba se sdm cong bo cong t r i n h cung n h u se tiep tac duoc l a m viec v o l ba. T a i T r u d n g K i n h doanh Stanford, Giao s u H a i m Mendelson da cho phep t o i t r i n h bay trudc ldp hoc va dua ra chii de nghien cuu Cai duoi dai t r d thanh m p t chii de. Do do, t o i that may man k h i duoc lam viec vol nhirng sinh vien ciia ong n h u Angie Shelton, Natalie K i m , Saloni Saraiya va Betheny Poole, nhung ngudi da viet cac nghien cuu t i n h huong ciia Yahoo! Music va eBay. Ve nghien cuu ciia eBay, chiing t o i cung nhan duoc t r d giup ciia Terapeak v d i nhurig so li?u quy gia ve Cai duoi dai khach hang va n g u d i ban t r e n t h i 13

CAl DUOI DAI trudng. Tai Dai hoc California, Berkeley, nha k i n h te Hal Varian da dua ra nhieu y tudng co van va khuyen khich t o i xem xet nhung khia canh m d i vdi su chinh xac cao hon. Mot trong nhurig nguon t u lieu va v i d u tntfc te nhat ve Cai duoi

dai la cong t y Rhapsody ciia h a n g

RealNetwork. T o i thifc su biet on Rob Glaser va Matt Graves, hai ngudi da thudng xuyen giup dd va khuyen khich toi. Reed Hastings, CEO ciia Netflix, khong chi la ngudi ling hp ngay tu: dau va cung cap so lieu, ma con la ngudi khuyen t o i rang cum tu "Cai duoi dai" co 1

the se hit, sau nay da t r d thanh Idi khuyen co ich. Dave Goldberg ciia Yahoo! da giup t o i bang kien thufc trong nganh am nhac, va Bill Fisher ciia DVDStation cung cap ca so liยงu va kien thiic trong linh vifc DVD dang thay doi. Robbie Vann-Adibe, trudc day tung lam tai Ecast, xiirig dang nhan nhung Idi cam on dac biet v i da khuyen k h i c h t o i bat dau d u an nay. Cac nha nghien cuu t u tudng va nha van da dong gop cho cuon sach nay dudi dang Idi noi va y tudng, bao gom Umair Haque, ngudi da giup rat nhieu ve phan Music House; Glenn Fleishman da dong gop l d n cho phan viet ve Amazon; Andrew Blau ciia GBN da giiip toi t u duy ve Cai duoi dai ru" quan diem Nguon hfc; Rob Reid vdi nhung email dai va sau sac ve nen k i n h te giai t r i dang chuyen doi da dude t o i da trich dan nhieu; Kenvin Laws vdi y tudng mang t i n h khai m i n h ve sufc manh ciia cac thi trudng ngach da co anh hudng quan trpng den bai bao dau tien ciia toi. 14

LOI CAM ON Dai dien cua toi, John Brokman, khong chi la ngudi dong vien va co van tuyet vol, ma con giup toi tiep can mpt the gioi cac nha t u tuong va khoa hoc. Nhung btfa toi va cac cuoc gap gd ciia toi dudi su sap xep ciia ong la quang t h d i gian t h u v i nhat trong cuoc doi toi. Bien tap vien ciia t o i d Hyperion, Will Schwalbe, da giup t o i rat nhieu; cau t n i c cuon sach hien nay chii yeu dua tren nhurig 161 khuyen co ich ciia ong va viec hoan thien ciia cuon sach la do sU nhiet t i n h thuong xuyen va chi dan tan t i n h ciia ong. Toi x i n dac biet cam On cha me ciia toi. Xin cam On cha toi, Jim Anderson v i da chi ra cho t o i tam quan trong ciia tam i i h i n toan cau va t i n h khiem ton trong gioi t r i thiic. Cam On me toi, Carlotta Anderson v i da khuyen k h i c h t o i bang su cWnh xac ve ngon n g i i va t i n h to mo vo b6. Nghien cuu trong nganh k i n h doanh sach la m p t trong nhung cong viec kho khan nhat v i nguon diJ lieu chuan (thong t i n ve doanh so ban ciia Amazon) khong dupe cung cap va chiing toi bupc phai su dung lai phan 1

Ion t u lieu ttifben thufba. Do do, toi x i n cam on dac biet den Morris Rosenthal va T i m O'Reilly. Cuoi ciing, x i n cam on John Bettelle, tac gia ciia cuon sach The Search, vdi v i d u ve viec dua len blog trong qua trinh viet sach da thuc day t o i m d ra blog thelongtail.com, noi t o i nhan dupe nguon y tudng, t h a m van, d t i lieu va kien thiic quy bau tuf hang n g h i n ngudi dpc thong m i n h , nhung ngudi ximg dang nhan dude Idi cam dn chan thanh ciia toi. 15

GIOI

THIEU

Chay theo cac danh sach ban chay nhat la n o i am anh ciia nude My. Van hoa My la mot cuoc dua ve su n o i tieng. Chung ta b i am anh b d l hit - tao ra chung, 1

lua chon chung, n o i chuyen ve chung va theo doi su len xuong cua chiing. Moi dip cuoi tuan la m o t cuoc dua gianh mua ve tai cac rap chieu bong va m o i t o i t h i i Nam la m o t cuoc dau tranh sinh ton kieu Darwin de t i m ra chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h p h u hop nhat va dat gid de theo doi vao tuan sau. Mpt vai bai hat hit dupe choi d i choi lai tren dai phat thanh, trong k h i cac nha quan l y nganh giai t r i b d h o i tai t i m kiem chii de t h u h u t khach tiep theo. Do la the" gioi chay theo hit. Hon mia the ky qua, cac phuong tien thong t i n dai chiing va nganh giai t r i phat trien dua tren nhuxig bp p h i m hit, nhirng dia vang va chuong t r i n h tivi n o i tieng. Khong nghi ngd gi niSa, hit da t r d thanh lang k i n h ma tu" do chiing ta cam nhan ve van hoa ciia m i n h . Chung ta nhan dang thoi dai thong qua nhirng nhan vat n o i tieng va cac san p h a m san xuat dai tra - chiing la nhirng chuoi ket n o i trai Ttf hit se dtfdc sii dung trong toan bp cuon sach nay, co nghia la: san pham dat ky luc, hang ilau, b i l l (.hay lltlau..â&#x20AC;&#x201D;r | THl/ VIEN KHOA HOC KY tHUAT B u l l DIEN 17 S

PHU BAN:

CAI DUOI DAI nghiem cuoc song ciia chiing ta. Mo h i n h lang xe cac ngoi sao man anh ma Hollywood thuc hien tu! tam thap nien tru6c day gid da len loi vao m o i ngo ngach thuong mai, vi nganh ban giay cho den dich v u am thuc. Cac phuong tien thong t i n ciia chiing ta b i am anh b d l nhirng san p h a m ndng. Noi torn lai, hit la vua. Tuy nhien, xem xet m o i vat k y hon mot chiit, ban se thay b u t tranh nay, n o i len cung v d i ky nguyen ciia dai phat thanh va truyen hinh sau Chien tranh the gidi lan t h i i hai, gid day dang dan bien dang. Hit dang bat dau mat dan anh hudng. So mpt van la so mpt nhung doanh so d i kem khong con n h u trudc kia. Hau het nhirng album trong so 50 album ban chay nhat m p i thdi dai la ciia thap nien 70 va 80 (The Eagles, Michael Jackson) va khong co album nao dupe san xuat trong vong 5 nam viia qua. Doanh t h u ciia cac rap chieu p h i m Hollywood da giam hon 6% trong nam 2005, cho thay mot thuc te la khan gia d i xem p h i m d rap dang giam d i d u cho dan so nude My van tang len. Moi nam, he thong tivl thong thudng lai mat them khach hang chay sang hang tram kenh truyen h i n h cap. Dan ong d do tud'i tit 18 den 34 - nhung khan gia dude nham t d i nhieu nhat ciia cac nha quang cao - da bat dau tat tivi de danh ngay cang nhieu thdi gian ludt Internet va choi games dien vi. T i l hang thap nien qua, bang xep hang nhirng chuong t r i n h tivi hay da giam xuong va chuong t r i n h hay nhat hien nay khong the sanh dupe v d i m u d i chuong t r i n h hay nhat vao n a m 1970. 18

Gioi thieu Noi torn lai, mac d u chung ta tiep tuc b i am anh b d i hit nhung chung khong con la nguon life lcinh te n h u trudc kia nira. Vay nhirng khach hang hay thay long doi da kia chuyen d i dau? Cau tra 161 la khong phai mot noi. Ho phan tan k h i t h i trudng phan khuc thanh vo so n h u n g t h i t r u d n g nghach. Mot k h u vuc tang trudng nhanh la Internet, gid dang tao ra m o t bien chtia hang trieu t h i trudng, m o i t h i trudng deu chong lai each l a m truyen thong va quang ba kieu truyen thong theo nhirng each khac nhau.

ITUNES GIET CHET N G O I SAO 1

DAI PHAT THANH Toi ldn len trong thdi ky huy hoang cua ky nguyen van hoa dai chung - thap nien 70 va 80. Moi thanh nien thoi do dude tiep can mia ta kenh tivi va tren m u t te, m o i ngudi deu x e m m o t so chuong t r i n h tivi giong nhau. Cd ba hay b o n dai phat thanh phat nhac rock d m o i thanh pho. Chiing d i n h hudng am nhac cho m o i ngudi; chi co vai dtia tre may man co tien mua cac dia nhac m d i la cd the m d rong t a m n h i n xa hon. Chung t o i deu xem p h i m bom tan vao mua he trong 2

iTunes: Ten mot phan mem quan ly am nhac do cong ty Apple dua ra nam 2001 cho may tinh MAC, co the ket noi vdi dich vu iTunes Store cua Apple de mua, tai nhac va video cac loai. Tieng Anh: blockbuster. TU long chi phim an khach. 19

CAI DUOI DAI rap va nhan t i n rtr cac td bao va dai phat thanh. Nhung dia diem t i m thay thong t i n ngoai luong la t h u vien va ciia hang sach tre em. Theo nhirng gi con lai trong tam t r i t o i t h i t h i i van hoa khong giong vol van hoa dai chiing ma t o i dupe tiep can chi la sach va mpt so tai lieu ban toi va toi suu tap, va chiing khong dupe truyen ba ra ngoai k h u nha ciia chiing toi. Ngupc vol tuoi tho ciia t o i la Ben, chang trai 16 tuoi l d n len trong ky nguyen Internet. Cau la con trai duy nhat ciia cap vp chong giau co d N o r t h Berkeley Hill, do vay cau co may tinh Mac trong phong ngii, mpt may iPod day d t i lieu (va dupe cho tien de tai nhac t i i iTunes Store hang tuan), va co mpt dam ban co ciing miic song n h u cau. Giong v o l cac ban ciia minh, Ben khong the tudng tupng ra m p t the gidi lai khong co bang thong rpng , dien thoai d i dong, MP3, TiVo va mua 1

hang true tuyen. Cac h i n h thiic ket n o i tren da cho phep tiep can khong gidi han va khong kiem soat doi vdi van hoa va san p h a m tren mang, tut chii l u u den ngoai le va tham chi ca xa h p i den. Ben l d n len trong mpt the gidi khac vdi toi - mpt the gidi i t b i chi phoi bdi cac phuong tien dai chiing va giai t r i truyen thong. Neu ban khong nhan ra m i n h trong nhirng trang viet nay, hay tudng tupng ra Ben. Cau ay dang tiep can n h i f n g san pham tien tien ciia tuong lai. 1

Nguyen van tieng Anh: Broadband. TiVo: Loai may thu hinh ky thuat so co dung luong 6 cung Ion, thuong dung de thu cac chuong trinh tivi de xem vao thdi diem khac vol thdi gian phat song. 20

Gioi thi^u Theo Ben, bite tranh van hoa la mot dong chay lien tuc tit cao xuong thap, v d i cac san pham thuong mai va nghiep d u canh tranh b i n h dang vdi nhau de gay su chii y v d i cau. D o n gian la cau khong phan biet cac san p h a m hit chii lUu v d i cac san pham chp den - cau chon nhirng g i cau thich tit thuc don nhieu vo tan nhirng bo p h i m ciia Hollywood va nghiep d u dupe xep canh nhau. Ben xem t r u y l n h i n h chi khoang 2 tieng/tuan, chii yeu la bo p h i m dai tap West Wing (tat nhien la thdi diem x e m khac v d i t h d i diem phat song) va Firefly mot bp p h i m dai tap ve chuong trinh vu tru da b i ngung phat ma cau ghi dupe bang may TiVo. Cau cung xem p h i m hoat h i n h dupe tai xuong bang phan m e m Bit Torrent, mpt cong nghe chia se peer-to-peer , 1

do p h i m

hoat h i n h do dupe phat lan dau tien tren truyen h i n h Nhat Ban (phu de tieng A n h dupe nhung ngudi xem them vao). Ve p h i m anh, cau say me p h i m khoa hoc vien tudng, v i vay la mot khan gia tuong doi chinh thong. Cau dam me cac bp p h i m khoa hpc vien tudng n h u Star va Matrix

Wars

Cau cung xem nhirng p h i m tai xuong tvt

mang, n h u p h i m hoat h i n h nghiep d u (dupe lam bang each dieu khien cac nhan vat trong games dien tir) va nhurig san p h a m dpc lap n h u Star Wars

Revelations,

m p t bp p h i m do ngudi ham mp t y san xuat co nhung 1

Cong nghe peer-to-peer dung de ket noi va chia se true tiep thong tin gifla hai hoac nhieu may tinh cung nhu gitia nhirng nguoi dung tren mang. 21

CAI DUOI DAl hieu uxig dac biet garth dua vol ca bp p h i m nguyen ban ciia Lucas. Mpt phan am nhac trong iPod cua cau dupe tai xuong t i i iTunes, nhung phan Ion la do ban be cung cap. Khi m p t thanh vien trong n h o m mua mpt dia CD, cau hay co ta se sao dia tang m o i ngudi. Sol thich ciia Ben la nhac rock co dien - Led Zeppelin hay Pink Floyd - hoa t r p n v d i am thanh ciia games dien tir. Dai phat thanh duy nhat ma cau nghe la NPR ma cha me cau m d k h i ngdi tren 6-to. Sd t h i c h doc ciia cau la tieu thuyet Star Wars va truyen tranh manga ciia Nhat Ban, phan ldn la qua cac trang mang truyen tranh. Giong n h u mpt so ngudi ban, cau yeu thich nen van hoa Nhat den noi da chon tieng Nhat la ngoai ngu" hoc d trudng. Khi toi con d i hoc, tre em hoc tieng Nhat vi Nhat la cudng quoc kinh te thong tri, do vay ky nang ngdn ngiJ duoc cho la m d ra co hpi nghe nghiep. Nhung gid day tre em hpc tieng Nhat de viet phu de p h i m hoat hinh va dpc truyen tranh manga chu" khong phai de dpc nhirng tac pham dupe dich tuong doi chinh thong. Ben gianh hau het thdi gian ranh de len mang, ludt web hay tham gia vao cac d i l n dan n h u Halo,

Star

Wars. Cau khong quan tam den t i n t u t - cau khong dpc bao hay xem t i n t u t tren truyen hinh - nhung theo d o i su phat t r i e n cong nghe m d i nhat va van hoa ngach

qua cac trang mang n h u Slashdot (tin tile ve

Hinh thtfc van hoa phai sinh do su ra doi ciia Internet. 22

Gioi thieu cong nghe) va Frark (chuyen la). Ca ngay, cau lien lac bang t i n nhan hen tuc vdi m u d i ngudi ban than nhat. Cau khong hay nhan t i n bang dien thoai di dong giong n h u cac ban. (Nhan t i n dupe nhirng ngudi hay ra ngoai Ua thich; IM la kenh chat Ua thich doi vdi nhirng ngudi 1

thudng xuyen d trong phong). Cau choi games vol ban be, chii yeu tren mang. Cau thich game Halo 2, dac biet la level cd su dieu chinh ciia ngudi choi. 2

Toi cho rang neu dupe sinh ra m u o n hon 25 nam, tud'i t h o ciia t o i chac cung giong n h u vay. Su khac nhau co ban ghia t u o i tho ciia Ben va ciia t o i chi la su lua chon. T o i chi dupe biet nhung gi dupe truyen phat tren song. Cau ay dupe tiep can Internet. Toi khong co TiVo (hay t h a m chi truyen h i n h cap); cau ay co tat ca va cd ca phan mem BitTorrent. Toi khong biet mpt chiit gi ve thir gpi la truyen tranh manga, cang khong biet phai t i m no d dau. Ben dupe tiep can tat ca. Neu co m p t n h o m b a n c h o i games t r u e t u y e n World Warcraft,

han t o i da co the xem lai bp p h i m hai nhieu

tap Gilligan's Island

That tinh t h i t o i ciing khong chac

cho lam. Cac chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h dupe xem nhieu hon vao thap nien 1970 so vdi bay gid, khong phai v i chiing hay hon, ma v i chiing ta cd i t su lua chon hon. Dieu chiing ta van n g h i la da cd su nd'i len ciia m p t nen van hoa dai chiing tren thuc te lai khong han la su thang 1

Chat: noi chuyen (tan gau) vdi nhau tren mang. Trinh do ciia tro choi, diffJc xep tii thap den cao. 23

CAI DUOI DAI the ciia cac tai nang Hollywood, ma diing hon la ket qua ciia hieu itng bay dan do cac phuong tien truyen thong tao ra. Uu diem ciia truyen thong la no co the phat mpt chtfbng trinh toi hang trieu ngudi xem vol hieu qua cao nhat. Nhung no khong the l a m ngupc lai - mang hang trieu chuong t r i n h den vdi mpt ngudi xem. Tuy nhien, Internet lai lam viec nay rat tot. Nguyen ly kinh te trong ky nguyen truyen thong doi hoi phai co cac chuong t r i n h hit - v d i so lupng l d n - de t h u hiit khan gia. Nguyen ly k i n h te ciia ky nguyen bang rpng t h i ngupc lai. Viec phuc v u hang trieu ngudi ciing mpt luc se la vo ciing ton kem va lang p h i d o i v d i mpt mang phan phoi dupe thiet ke cho giao dich den rung d o i tupng. Hien nay, n h u cau d o i v d i cac san pham van hoa hit van ton tai, nhung no khong con la t h i trudng duy nhat m2a. Nhirng san pham hit gid phai canh tranh v d i so lupng l d n san pham

ngach

(niche). NgUdi tieu diing

ngay cang nghieng ve t h i trudng cd nhieu sU lUa chpn nhat. Ky nguyen mpt-san-pham-dap-ung-tat-ca dang cham dilt va mpt dieu m d i me dang the cho, do la mot t h i trudng da sU lu"a chpn. Quyen sach nay viet ve t h i trudng do. Su tan vd ciia t h i trudng chii lUu thanh vo so manh vd van hoa la dieu gay that vpng doi v d i van hoa va nganh giai t r i truyen thong ciia chiing ta. Sau nhieu thap nien, cac nha quan ly da khong ngiing h u n due ky nang sang tao, lua chpn va quang ba cho san pham hit. Dot nhien nhirng san pham hit t r d nen khong du. 24

Gioi thieu Khan gia dang chuyen sU chu y t d i nhirng t n t i khac, m o t sU truyen ba m d ho ve... Dung la chung t o i khong biet goi cac san pham khong phai hit la gi. Chung chac chan khong phai la "cac hoa hau", bdi v i hau het khong n h a m muc dich thong t r i the gidi. Chung la "tat ca nhirng gi con lai". That ky la la chiing co the da b i bo qua. Suy cho ciing, chiing ta dang noi ve da so su vat. Hau het p h i m anh khong phai la hit, hau het am nhac khong d trong top 100, hau het sach khong phai la sach ban chay nhat, va hau het chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h tham chi k h o n g dUOc xep hang Nielsen, va nhieu h o n so do k h o n g dUOc len song vao gid cao diem. Tuy nhien, nhieu t h i i trong so do lai t i m thay hang trieu khan gia tren toan the gidi. Chiing khong dupe goi la hit, do do khong dupe t i n h den. T u y nhien, chiing l a i chiem v i t r i ma n h i i n g t h i trudng dai chiing trudc day da vd vun thanh. But tranh phac hpa ve m p t so tac p h a m hit co vai t r d chi phoi, t r o n g k h i nhirng san pham con lai khong cd vai trd gi, gid day da t r d thanh mot b u t kham r o i ram gom hang trieu m a n h nho. T h i trudng dai chiing ngay cang t r d thanh t h i trudng san pham Thi trudng

ngach.

ngach van l u o n t o n tai, nhung do gia ca

ciia cac san p h a m nay dang giam xuong - ngudi tieu diing t i m ra san pham

ngach,

san pham

ngach

tim

thay t h i trudng - nen dpt nhien t r d thanh life lifpng kinh te va van hoa khong the bo qua. 25

CAl DUOI DAI Thi trudng ngach m d i khong thay the t h i trudng hit truyen thong ma chi chia se vdi no. Trong suot the ky qua, chung ta da lua chon nhung san pham ban chay de su" dung co hieu qua nhat gia de hang hoa, man hinh, kenh phan p h o i va su chu y. Gid day, trong ky nguyen m d i cua khach hang mua ban qua mang va ky thuat so, nguyen ly ciia phan phoi dang thay doi m o t each co ban k h i Internet di vao turig nganh cong nghiep, t r d thanh kho chiia hang, thanh nha hat va phuong tien truyen thong vdi chi p h i chi bang mot phan chi p h i truyen thong. Chung ta co the v i qua t r i n h giam chi p h i phan phoi n h u qua t r i n h giam muc nude hay k h i trieu ha. K h i chi p h i giam xuong, mot vting dat m d i da co san d do dot nhien 16 ra. Nhung san pham ngach la su m d rpng rat ldn cac san pham trudc day khong co hieu qua. Nhieu san pham da co d do, cd dieu chiing ta kho t i m hay kho nhan biet. Chiing la nhirng bp p h i m khong dupe chieu d rap dia phuong, la nhirng ban nhac khong dupe len song tren dai dia phuong, la nhung dung cu the thao khong dupe ban tai Wal-Mart. Gi6 day chiing co the dupe t i m thay tren Netflix , iTunes, A m a z o n hay 1

d mpt dia diem ngau nhien nao do theo t i m k i e m ciia Google. T h i trudng vo h i n h da t r d thanh h i f u hinh. Ben canh do, cung co nhung san pham

ngach

hoan

toan mdi, do mpt nganh cong nghiep m d i no'i tao ra ghia the gidi thuong mai va p h i thuong mai. Chiing 1

Netflix: Dich vu cho thue dia tren mang pho bien tai My Amazon: Cong ty ban le tren mang (amazon.com). 26

Gioi thieu xuat hien d nhung n o i ma su chuyen nghiep khong de y den va t i n h nghiep d u chiem cho. Do la the gidi blogger , nhung ngudi san xuat bang hinh, ban nhac 1

nghiep du, tat ca dot nhien t i m thay khan gia n h d nguyen tac k i n h te cua thdi dai phan phoi ky thuat so.

QUY LUAT 98 PHAN TRAM Cuon sach nay bat dau bang mot bai toan ma toi da giai sai. Mot trong nhung cong viec ciia t o i v d i t u each bien tap vien ciia tap chi Wired la dua ra cac phat bieu ve x u the cong nghe. Bdi v i t o i bat dau nghe nghiep trong linn vuc khoa hoc va sau do t i m hieu kinh te hoc tai tap chi The Economist nen toi thudng t i m kiem nhirng x u the tren tuf nhung d i l lieu tho. May man la chua bao gid d t i lieu lai san n h u bay gid. Bi mat ciia k i n h te hoc the k y 21 nam trong cac may chii ciia cac cong ty xung quanh ta, t i i eBay den Wal-Mart . Mac 2

d u k h o n g phai liic nao cung de t h u thap cac so lieu nhung n h i m g ngudi dieu hanh tai cac cong ty do b o i trong dong dtf lieu m o i ngay va co cam quan tuyet vdi ve dieu gi co y nghia va dieu gi khong. Do do, m u o n hieu ve x u hudng t h i phai h o i ho. 1

Blogger: ngudi viet nhat ky tren mang. eBay: cong ty ban hang (mot phan thong qua dau gia) tren mang. Wal-Mart: He thong sieu thi lorn nhat the gidi do tap doan Wal-Mart dieu hanh. 27

CAI DUOI DAI Do la dieu t o i da lam vao thang gieng nam 2004, trong van phong ciia Robbie Van-Adibe, CEO ciia Ecast, m o t cong ty "hop nhac so" . Hop nhac so ciing giong 1

n h u hop nhac t u dong b i n h thudng - gom co loa phat va anh den d i i mau n h u thudng thay d cac quan bar. Su khac biet chi la d ch6, thay v i can mpt tram dia CD, hp chi can mpt dudng truyen Internet bang thong rpng va ngudi dan chUPng t r i n h lUa chpn bai hat tu" hang nghin bai dupe tai va l u u true trong m o t 6 ciing. Trong qua t r i n h tro chuyen, Vann-Adibe hoi t o i hay doan so phan t r a m ciia 10 nghin album hien co trong hop am nhac ciia cong ty dupe ban it nhat mpt lan trong quy. Tat nhien toi biet rang Vann-Adibe muon t h i i toi. Cau tra Idi thong thudng la 20% b d i v i Quy luat 80/20 co the ap dung trong m o i linh vuc. Cd nghia la 20% san pham chiem 80% doanh so (va thudng chiem 100% lpi nhuan). Nhung Vann-Adibe dang k i n h doanh san pham so, nen co sU khac biet. Do do t o i nghi se lieu doan t h i i con so khting hon la 50% trong so 10 nghin album ban dupe it nhat m p t ban trong quy. Cd ve n h u con so do qua cao t h i phai. Mpt niia trong so 10 nghin cuon sach hit trong ciia hang sach sieu cd thudng khong ban dupe mpt lan trong mpt quy. Mpt niia trong so 10 nghin dia CD hit ciia he thong ciia hang Wal-Mart ciing vay. Rat kho t i m dupe mat hang 1

Digital Jukebox. 28

uioi thieu nao ban dupe ty le l d n n h u vay. Nhung cam giac cua t o i rang san p h a m k y thuat so se khac, do do t o i da chon con so l d n n h u the. T o i da sai, rat sai. Cau tra Idi la 98%. Vann-Adibe noi: "That ngac nhien, phai khong? Tat ca m o i ngudi deu doan sai". Chinh ong ta cung phai kinh ngac: cong ty ciia ong luon muon nap them nhieu bai hat vao hop am nhac, v d i so so luong l d n h o n bat cut ciia hang l d n nhat nao va bao gom ca cac san

pham

ngach va van hoa ngach, v i l u o n co khach hang mua cac bai hat do. Cang them nhieu bai m d i t h i so luong ban ra cang nhieu. N h u cau doi v o l am nhac ngoai san p h a m hit dudng n h u khong co gidi han. Diing la cac bai hat khong duoc ban v o l so luong l d n nhung gan n h u tat ca deu ban duoc v o l so luong nhat dinh. Bdl v i chiing chi la nhirng tep d i i lieu trong co sd d i i lieu nen gan n h u khong mat chi p h i l u u kho va phan phoi. Do do, cac bai hat c i i hen tuc duoc them vao. Dieu Vann da k h a m pha ra chinh la: tong thi

trudng

ngach cd doanh t h u l d n va khong co gidi han. Ong goi do la "Quy luat 98%". Sau do ong noi v d i toi: "Trong the gidi v d i chi p h i dong goi gan n h u bang khong va khach hang duoc tiep can nhanh chong cac san pham theo m o t d i n h dang nhat dinh, hp se l u o n m u o n t i m kiem m o i t h i i Toi t i n rang dieu nay doi hoi mpt su thay d o i co ban tuf cac nha san xuat - t o i chi khong biet nhirng thay d o i do la gi!" T o i se tra I d i cau h o i do. T o i nhan thay rang con so

CAI DUOI DAl thong ke gay soc ciia Vann ham chiia mot su that thuyet phuc ve mot trudng phai k i n h te hoc m d i trong nganh giai t r i ciia thdi dai ky thuat so. Vol nguon cung khong han che, quan m e m ciia chiing ta ve vai tro ciia san pham hit va san pham

ngach deu sai. SU khan hiem

budc phai u u tien cac san pham hit - do chi co so lupng nhat dinh 6 tren gia de hang hoa va t h d i lupng tren song phat thanh, nen can phai chiia nhirng san

pham

hit. Neu do la tat ca nhirng gi dupe ban t h i cung la tat ca nhirng gi khach hang co the mua. Nhung dieu gi se xay ra vdi khoang trong vo han? Co the hit la each n h i n nhan sai ve k i n h doanh. Co nhieu san pham khong phai hit khac ton tai song song. Dieu gi xay ra neu cac san pham do tao ra mpt thi trudng ldn tuong duong, neu khong n o i la l d n hon, t h i trudng hit? Cau tra l d l that ro rang: no se l a m thay doi co ban m p t so t h i trudng l d n nhat tren the gidi. Do do, t o i bat dau d u an nghien cuu va cd co hpi tiep can tat ca nhung ngudi d i dau trong nganh giai t r i k y thuat so, nr Amazon den iTunes. 0" m o i n o i t o i tdi, cau chuyen deu giong nhau: cac san p h a m hit van co vai tro ldn, nhung cac san pham

ngach

dang noi

len t r d thanh t h i trudng ngay cang quan trpng. Quy luat 98% hoa ra gan n h u cd t i n h pho' quat. Cong ty Apple cho biet tat ca cac bai hat trong mpt trieu bai l u u t r i i tren iTunes tai t h d i diem do dupe ban i t nhat mpt lan trong quy. Netflix cho biet 95% trong tong so 25 nghin dia DVD (gid la 90 nghin) dupe thue i t nhat m p t lan trong quy. A m a z o n khong dua ra con so cu 30

Gioi thi?u the nhung theo mpt cong t r i n h nghien cuu doc lap ve san lupng ban sach cua cong ty nay t h i 98% trong 100 nghin dau sach dupe ban i t nhat m o t lan trong quy. Dieu nay ciing diing v d i nhieu cong ty khac. Moi cong t y deu co an tupng ve n h u cau doi v d i cac mat hang trudc day b i coi la p h i k i n h te, t i i dia DVD p h i m truyen h i n h nhieu tap ciia A n h dang pho' bien m p t each dang ngac nhien tren Netflix, den nhirng dia nhac a i dupe ban rpng rai tren iTunes. Lan dau tien t o i nhan ra rang: t o i dang chung kien h i n h dang thuc t h u ciia dudng cong n h u cau trong nen van hda ciia chiing ta k h i no khong b i lpc b d i t u duy k i n h te hoc khan hiem. H i n h dang ay diing la rat, rat la. Neu nghi rang bat a i thuf gi dupe dua ra t h i trudng deu cd khach hang t h i diing la la. Ly do la v i chiing ta khong nghi viec ban dupe m p t dPn v i trong mpt quy la dang ke. Chiing ta thudng nghi rang ban le la phai ban duoc nhieu. Ban se khong quan tam den viec t h i thoang m d i ban dude m p t san pham, v i m p t ciia hang ban le dia CD truyen thong s i i dung gia de dia 0,5 inch/dia cd the ban dupe 1 nghin dTa/quy. Do la gia t r i ciia khoang khong - tien thue, tra nhan vien, chi p h i khac... can phai t h u lai t i i m p t so lupng cac san pham hang thang. Noi each khac, viec bay ban cac san pham

ngach la lang p h i .

Tuy nhien, k h i khoang trong khong mat tien, dpt n h i e n ban cd cd h p i ban nhirng san p h a m trudc kia i t k h a nang cd khach hang, va chiing bat dau co gia t r i .

CAl DUOI DAl Day chinh la b i quyet dan den thanh cong cua cac cong ty Amazon, Netflix va cac cong ty khac. Tat ca deu nhan ra rang k h i hieu qua k i n h te truyen thong mat di t h i hieu qua k i n h te tren mang phat huy tac dung. Nhurig san pham

ngach

chi ban dupe vol so lupng

nho, nhung co rat nhieu san pham

ngach dupe ban,

nen tao thanh mpt nganh k i n h doanh lorn. Trong niia dau nam 2004, t o i bat dau nghien ciiu nay qua mpt so bai phat bieu va phat trien y tudng sau m o i lan n o i chuyen. Ban dau, bai n o i co nhan de "Quy luat 98%". Sau do la "Luat choi M61 trong Nen Kinh te Giai t r i Moi". Tuy nhien, liic do toi da co du" lieu tho nhd Rhapsody, m p t trong nhirng cong ty am nhac true tuyen. Ho da cung cap cho t o i die lieu ve lupng sii dung ciia khach hang trong m p t thang, va k h i t o i dung thanh do thi, toi nhan thay rang dudng cong nay khong gidng n h u nhirng gi t o i da thay trudc day. Ban dau, dudng cong do giong n h u bat k y dudng cong nhu cau nao khac, duoc xep t i i l d n d ÂŁ n nho. Mpt so san pham hit dupe tai v d i so lupng l d n d phan dau ciia do t h i , sau do no doc xuong nhanh v d i nhung bai hat kem nd'i tieng hon. Nhung dieu t h i i v i la no khong bao gid cham so 0. T o i kiem tra bai hat thu" 100 nghin va nhan dupe so lan tai xuong hang thang van d con so hang nghin. Dudng cong tiep rue, 200 nghin, 300 nghin, 400 nghin bai - khong ciia hang nao ban dia truyen thong nao cd the chiia nhieu bai hat den the. 32

Gioi thieu Van co n h u cau. Tai diem cuoi cua dudng cong, cac bai hat dupe tai chi 4 den 5 lan/thang, nhung van khong cham so 0. Trong thong ke hoc, nhung duong cong n h u the dupe gpi la "Dudng phan p h o i dai duoi", b d i v i phan

duoi

ciia no rat dai so v d i phan dau. Do do, tat ca nhirng gi t o i l a m la tap trung nghien cuu Cai duoi, chpn ten chinh xac, va thuat ngti "Cai duoi dat' da ra ddi. No bat dau tai trang 20 trong bai t r i n h bay "Nhirng quy luat m d i " ciia t o i . T o i cho rang chinh Reed Hastings, CEO ciia Netflix da thuyet phuc t o i cat bd phan dau ciia bai t r i n h bay. Vao m u a he n a m 2004, "Cai duoi ddf' khong chi la ten bai diยงn van ciia toi; t o i da viet g i n xong bai bao ciia m i n h cd ciing ten cho tap chi Wired ciia t o i . Khi bai bao "Cai duoi ddf

dupe dang tren tap chi

Wired vao thang 11 n a m 2004, no nhanh chong t r d thanh bai bao dupe trich dan nhieu nhat tU trudc den nay tren tap chi nay. Ba luan diem chinh ciia no - (1) Cai duoi cac san pham dai hon rat nhieu so vol nhirng gi chiing ta thay; (2) No cd hi?u qua k i n h te; (3) Tat ca thi trudng

ngach, k h i k i t hpp lai v d i nhau, cd the tao

thanh t h i t r u d n g khong lo - dudng n h u khong ai cd the nghi ngd, dac biet k h i dupe chiing m i n h bdi nhirng dtf lieu chua bao gid dupe cong bo.

CAI DUOI DAI

DUOI D A I 6 KHAP NOI Mot trong nhung dieu dang khich le nhat trong so hang loat phan h o i doi v d i bai bao cua t o i la so lupng phan h o i ciia cac nganh cong nghiep. Bai bao bat nguon rU mot phan rich ve mpt trudng phai kinh tยง hoc mdi trong nganh giai t r i va truyen thong, va t o i chi md rdng doi chiit k h i de cap qua cac nganh khac n h u eBay (hang hoa cu) va Google (danh cho cac nha quang cao nho) n h u nhung nganh k i n h doanh Cai duoi dai. Tuy nhien, ngudi doc nhan thay Cai duoi dai d khap mpi noi, tu" chinh t r i den quang ba cong chiing, tU am nhac den the thao trong trudng hoc. Dieu m o i ngudi nhan thufc ra la nhirng hieu qua mdi ve phan phoi, san xuat va quang ba dang lam thay doi khai niem ve thuong mai n d i chung. Cach tot nhat de mieu ta cac luc lupng nay la chiing dang bien nhirng khach hang, san pham va t h i trudng p h i l p i nhuan trudc day thanh nhung l i n h vuc mang lai l p i nhuan. Mac d u hien tupng nay bieu hien ro nhat trong nganh giai t r i va truyen thong nhung no cung cd bieu hien tuong t u tai cac cong ty n h u eBay, hay rpng h p n la nganh oto va t h u cong. Nhin rpng ra, cau chuyen Cai duoi dai thuc su la ve k i n h te hpc d u thUa - dieu gi se xay ra k h i kho khan giUa cung va cau dan bien mat va m p i thU t r d nen de tiep can v d i tat ca m p i ngudi. 34

Gioi thieu Mpi ngudi thudng yeu cau t o i chi ra m p t san pham khong thuoc pham t n i k i n h te hpc Cai duoi dai. Cau tra I d i thong thudng ciia t o i la: san p h a m do phai khong the phan loai dUOc, k h i su da dang khong nhung khong phai la dac diem ciia no ma la dieu m o i ngudi khong m o n g muon. V i du, hot m i , t o i n h d la no dUdc ban trong sieu t h i v d i nhan hieu chU to "Bot mi". Sau do t o i t i n h cd d i qua cUa hang thuc pham Whole Food va nhan ra la t o i da sai. CUa hang do cd hon hai m u o i loai bpt m i , tU bpt tho den bot pha t r p n v d i cac thanh phan huu CP khac. That ngac nhien la ciing cd mpt Cai duoi dai ve bpt m i . SU giau cd dang tang len cho phep chung ta chuyen tU nhirng khach hang luon mac ca k h i mua nhirng hang hoa cd thUPng hieu (hay t h a m chi khong co thuong hieu), thanh nhiing ngudi sanh soi v d i nhung sd thich trong ca n g h i n su dam me de phan biet chiing ta v d i nhirng ngudi khac. Chung ta dang tao ra nhirng hanh v i khach hang m d i , dupe mieu ta bang nhiing thuat ngU n h u "Tinh dpc dao danh cho so dong", "Chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h dac biet danh cho so i t khan gia", "He thong san xuat dupe t r p giup b d i may t i n h nham dap Ung n h u cau ciia nhieu loai khach hang" . Chiing 1

deu hudng den m p t diem chung: co nhieu Cai duoi dai hon.

Nguyen van tieng Anh lan ltfqft la "Massclusivity", "Silvercasting", "Mass Customization". 35

CAl BUOI DAl GIOI THIEU K I N H TE HOC C U A T H E K Y 2 1 Cuon sach nay cung la mot cong trinh nghien c\iu k i n h te, v o l su giup dd va tham gia ciia cac sinh vien va giao su cua trudng cac dai hoc Stanford, MIT va Truong Kinh doanh Harvard. Do cung la thanh qua tut hon mot t r a m bai phat bieu, phien tranh luan va lam viec v d i cac cong ty va tap doan cong nghiep cd quan diem rang Cai duoi dai dang thay dd'i the gidi. No cung nhan duoc su hop tac cua hang chuc cong t y va nha dieu hanh cung cap nhieu t u lieu n o i bo, dua ra quan diem chua tUng cd ve su nd'i len cua k i n h te hoc v i mo trong ky nguyen tren mang. Dieu dang mung la k i n h te hoc cua the k y 21 da cho thay bong dang trong cac dU lieu ciia Google, Amazon, Netflix va iTunes. Trong d u lieu l d n ve thoi quen ciia ngudi tieu diing dan he 16 hanh v i ciia khach hang k h i ho duoc lua chpn khong han che, m p t van de khong dupe quan tarn cho den gan day, nhung dang t r d thanh mau chot de hieu ve he thong k i n h te duong dai. Dieu dang ngac nhien la rat i t nha k i n h te nghien cUu nhung dU lieu nay, chii yeu v i hp khong dat van de (hau het cac nha nghien cUu ma t o i l a m viec ciing la d trong cac trudng lcinh doanh, chi cd vai ngudi la nha k i n h te). Cd vai ngoai le la nha k i n h te Hal Varian ciia Dai hpc California lam viec ban thdi gian tai Google va m d t so nha k i n h te theo ly thuyet dau gia l a m viec tai eBay - nhung hp chi la thieu so. Mpt so dU Ueu trong cuon sach nay chua tung dupe biet den. 36

Gioi thieu La ngudi ngoai dao, t o i da can den nhieu stf tro" giup tU cac chuyen gia trong m o i linh vuc. V i du, toi da dua ra nhieu cau h o i ve khai niem va each goi tai blog thelongtail.com ciia t o i . Thong thudng, qua ttinh nay dien ra n h u sau: t o i dua y tudng ban dau giai thich Quy luat 80/20 dang thay doi n h u the nao len mang, sau do hang chuc ngudi doc thong thai se dua ra b i n h luan, gin' email hay dua len blog rieng ciia hQ each phat trien y tudng do. Cach s i i dung so dong trong t u duy nay da t h u hiit dupe trung b i n h 5 nghin ngudi doc m o i ngay. Trong phan mem, ngudi viet gui ban so bp (ban beta) cho nhirng ngudi m u o n s i i dung nhat. De d o i lay vi?c dupe tiep can sdm v d i phan mem, ngudi sii dung phai t h i i nghiem chuong t r i n h tren may ciia hp, t i m ra l o i m a ngudi viet chuong ttinh mac phai. Viec k i e m tra ban be-ta rat quan trpng trong viec tao ra nhung phan m e m cd t i n h Ung dung cao. Hy vpng ciia t o i ciing cd the l a m giong the - t h i i nghiem nhieu y tudng trong cong chiing - de cuon sach tot hon, hay i t nhat ciing chinh xac hon. T o i se chi ra day su khac biet giUa nhiing y tudng t h u nghiem be-ta trong cong chiing va viec viet m p t cuon sach thuc sU. Mac d u nhieu ngUdl n6 luc viet sach - dua m p t so chUdng len mang va d o i k h i dua bai viet de mong nhan dupe gop y tap the - toi da chpn s i i dung blog n h u m p t t i p nhat k y cong khai trong qua t r i n h nghien cUu. Qua ttinh viet sach va hau het n o i dung p h a n tiep theo - t o i thuc hien ngoai mang 37

(offline).

CAI DUOI DAl Cuoi cung la van de ban quyen. Mac d u t o i nghi ra thuat n g i i "Cdi duoi ddf nhung t o i khong the d o i hoi bat cU quyen l o i gi trong sang tao ra khai n i e m nay. Viec van dung cac nguyen ly k i n h te m o t each co h i f u qua t r o n g n g a n h b a n le t r e n m a n g da duoc Jeff Benzos ciia Amazon tien hanh vao khoang nam 1994. Hau het nhirng gi t o i duoc biet la qua nhUng b u o i noi chuyen vdi ong va cac doi tac ciia ong tai Netflix va Rhapsody, cung vdi nhirng ngudi khac trong nghe rU nhieu nam nay. Nhung nha k i n h doanh do la nhung ngudi sang tao thuc s u Dieu ma t o i co gang l a m la tong hop y kien ciia ho de xay dung m o t khung khai niem. Tat nhien, do chinh la k i n h te hoc: t i m nhiing khung khai niem p h u hop, de hieu de m d ta hien tuong trong the gidi thuc. Xay dung khung khai niem la m o t budc tien, nhung dieu do chi co the thuc hien tU nhirng sang tao thuc su ciia tat ca nhirng ngudi phat hien va hanh dpng ve hi?n tuong nay ngay tU dau.

CAI DUOI D A l CONG NGHÂŁ DANG BIFJN THI TRUONG DAI CHUNG THANH HANG TRLfiU THI TRUONG NGACH

Nam 1988, nha leo n u i ngudi A n h Joe Simpson viet m p t cuon sach co tua de Cham (Touching

vao khoang

trong

the Void), m p t cau chuyen r u n g r p n ke ve

c h u y i n d i can ke v d i cai chet t r e n vung n u i Andes d Peru. Mac d u nhan dupe danh gia t i c h cue n h u n g cuon sach chi t h u dupe thanh cong han che va gan n h u r o i ngay vao quen lang. Mpt thap nien sau do, dieu k y la da xay ra. K h i cuon sach ciia Jon Krakauer cd t u a de Tan bien (Into Thin Air) dupe xuat ban v d i so l u p n g l d n t h i cuon Cham

vao khoang

trong

dupe b a n t r d lai. Cac dai l y ban sach da gidi thieu cuon Cham khoang

vao

trong ciing v d i cuon Tan bien va lupng ban

ra ciia cuon sach nay tiep tuc tang. Dau nam 2004, Hang p h i m IFC da ra m a t bp p h i m tai lieu ve cau chuyen lien quan den cuon sach v d i danh gia tot ve 39

CAI DUOI DAI no. Ngay sau do, nha xuat ban HarperCollins tai ban cuon sach tren dudi dang bia m e m va no da lot vao danh sach cac cuon sach ban chay nhat ciia Thdi bao New York trong 14 tuan. Gitia nam 2004, cuon vao khoang

Cham

trong da ban dupe hdn gap doi cuon Tan

bien. Dieu gi da xay ra? Do la do truyen t i n tren mang. Khi cuon sach Tan bien dupe xuat ban, mpt so ngudi da gidi thieu tren mang Amazon.com su giong nhau giUa cuon sach do v d i cuon sach Cham vao

khoang

trong k h i do con i t dude biet den, dong thdi ca ngpi het Idi. Nhirng dpc gia khac dpc nhirng danh gia do va t i m mua cuon sach xuat ban trudc. Sau do khong lau, phan m e m mua sach tren mang da khuyen khich ngudi mua "dpc gia mua sach Tan bien ciing nen mua cuon Cham vao khoang

trong" va bat dau gidi thieu

ca hai cuon sach n h u m p t bp doi. Khach hang quan tam va dong y hoan toan, ho viet Idi nhan xet mpt each day cam hiing. Sach cang ban dupe nhieu t h i cang cd nhieu Idi gpi y dupe nhan rpng va the la xuat hien mpt vong mua ban m d i v d i so luong ldn. Dieu dac biet dang chu y la k h i cuon sach ciia Krakauer dupe dua ra t h i trudng t h i cuon sach ciia Simpson gan n h u khong con dupe xuat ban. Neu dieu nay xay ra vao m p t thap nien trudc t h i dpc gia ciia Krakauer se khong bao gid biet den Simpson - va neu cd biet t h i ciing se khong the t i m mua dupe sach ciia ong. Cac nha ban sach tren mang da thay dd'i dieu do. Bang each m d rpng gidi han cac dau sach tren gia va 40

Cai duoi dai cung cap thong t i n tren mang ve x u the mua ban cung n h u y kien dpc gia, ho da tao ra hien tupng Cham khoang

vao

trong. Ket qua la cuon sach da r o i vao quen

lang lai dupe t i m mua. Do khong chi la gia t r i ciia cac nha ban sach tren mang, ma con la v i d u ciia m p t m d h i n h k i n h te hoan toan m o i trong nganh giai t r i va truyen thong, mpt mo h i n h vUa m d i dupe khai sinh. Viec ngudi tieu diing duoc lua chpn khong gidi han mua cai gi va bang

each

nao - tU cac dia DVD ciia cong ty cho mupn qua dudng b u u dien Netflix den cac bai hat ciia cac cong ty true tuyen iTunes va Rhapsody- da t r d thanh hien thuc. Khach hang se t i m k y h d n cac bai hat trong catalog theo nhung danh sach dai hon rat nhieu nhirng bai hat d cac ciia hang Blockbuster

Video va Tower

Records.

Cang t i m dupe nhieu hai hat, hp cang cam thay thich t h i i . Cho den k h i hp thudng thUc nhung bai hat ngay cang xa vdi nhung bai quen thupc, hp phat hien ra rang sd t h i c h thudng thUc am nhac ciia hp khong chinh thong n h u trudc day hp van thudng nghi (noi theo each khac, hp dan t i n rang van hoa chay theo hit ddn thuan la van hda khan hiem). Nhiing so Ueu ban ra va x u hudng trong cac nganh dich v u tren va cac nganh khac cho thay mpt t h j trudng k i n h doanh giai t r i k y thuat so dang noi len. T h i trudng k i n h doanh nay khac ve cd ban so v d i cac t h j trudng khac. Neu nganh giai t r i trong the k y 20 chay theo hit, t h i t r o n g the k y 21 se chay theo cac thi trudng

ngach.

CAl DUOI DAI Trong thdi gian qua dai vUa qua, chiing ta da chiu su thong t r i ciia mot so i t san pham hit, v i d u cac san pham sach bao va p h i m b o m tan theo mua ciing v o l van hoa nhac pop. Tai sao vay? Do la do k i n h te hoc. Nhieu gia thuyet ciia chiing ta ve t h i h i i u cong chiing la san pham ciia su" mat can doi cung va cau - phan ling t h i trudng doi v o l su phan p h o i thieu hieu qua. Co the noi van d i chinh la viec chiing ta song trong the g i d i vat l y va cho den gan day, h a u het cac phuong tien giai t r i ciia chiing ta ciing van hanh n h u vay. The gidi do gay can t r d l d n trong nganh giai t r i ciia chiing ta.

SU KHO KHAN VE DIA LY Khd khan doi vdi nganh ban le truyen thong la can phai t i m khach hang dia phuong. Mpt rap chieu p h i m thong thudng se khong cong chieu neu khong ban dupe it nhat 1.500 ve trong 2 tuan. Do la chi p h i tra cho viec thue rap chieu. Mot ngan de dia ciia ciia hang bang dia thong thudng can ban dupe i t nhat la 4 dia CD/ nam de ton tai; do la chi p h i thue gia de dia nhac. Dieu do ciing diing v o l cac ciia hang cho thue DVD, games video, ciia hang ban sach, bao... Trong moi trudng hpp, ngudi ban le se chi ban nhUng mat hang cd the dap Ung n h u cau de k i e m l p i . Tuy nhien, chi co mpt so lupng han che khach hang cd the den ciia hang - trong ban l d n h khoang 20 k m d o i v d i 42

Cai duoi dai mot rap chieu phim, khoang each ngan hon d6i vol ciia hang ban sach va t h a m chi ngan h o n niia (khoang 24km) doi v o l ciia hang cho thue bang hinh. Viec mpt bp p h i m tai lieu l d n t h u hut dupe niia trieu khan gia t i e m nang tren toan quoc la khong du; van de la can phai t i n h co bao nhieu khan gia tai mien Bac Rockville, Maryland, hay bao nhieu khach hang ciia cac sieu t h i d Walnut Creek, California se xem p h i m . So lupng khach hang t i e m nang phan tan tren toan quoc chua vupt qua dupe rao can dia ly de tiep can nganh giai t r i nay la rat Ion. V i du, bo p h i m The Triplets of Belleville, dupe de cii giai Oscar cho p h i m hoat h i n h hay nhat nam 2004, chi dupe chieu d sau rap tren toan quoc. Mpt v i d u khac dien h i n h hon la ve su kho khan ciia dong p h i m Bollywood d My. Moi nam, nganh cong nghiep p h i m ciia A n Do san xuat hon 800 p h i m . Co khoang 1,7 trieu ngudi A n Do song tai My. Tuy nhien, bo p h i m d i i n g dau bang bang tieng H i n d i co ten Lagaan:

Ngay xua d An Do, chi dupe chieu of hai rap

tai nude My. H o n t h i , do la m p t trong so i t p h i m A n Dp dupe chieu tai My vao n a m do. SU kho khan ve dia ly cd nghia la neu khan gia phan bo qua rai rac t h i cung dong nghia v o l viec khong cd khan gia. Mpt can t r d niia trong the gidi vat ly chinh la nhiing nguyen tac vat ly. Song phat thanh chi co the dupe phat di tu* m p t so t r a m phat, cap dong true chi cd the truyen m o t so k i n h truyen h i n h . Tat nhien, m p t ngay cung chi cd 24 tieng. Han die ldn ciia cong nghe truyen thong la viec s i i dung hoang p h i nguon luc han che. Ket qua 43

CAI DUOI DAI la no phai tap trung vao so lupng khan gia l d n trong mot k h u vuc dia l y nhat d i n h va chi phat d i mpt phan noi dung chuong t r i n h . Trong the ky trudc, nganh giai t r i da dua ra mpt giai phap doi v d i nhvmg kho khan tren: chi tap trung vao cac an pham t h u hut so lupng khan gia ldn. Ket qua la chi co cac tac pham hit tai cac nha hat, cac ciia hang, cac chuong trinh phat thanh va tren truyen hinh. Dieu do khong phai la sai. Cac nha xa h p i hpc se noi vdi ban rang tam l y con ngudi l u o n hudng tori nhirng tac pham hit - rang hit la su k i t hdp gitia su p h u hpp vdi so dong va each quang ba. Tat nhien, n h i n tU gdc dp tich cue, cac tac pham hit xUng dang cd cho dung ciia chung: nhiing bai hat hay, nhung bp p h i m hap dan, nhirng cuon sach l o i cuon thudng t h u hut so lUdng t h i n h gia ciing doc gia dong dao. Tuy nhien, hau h i t chiing ta khong chi muon thudng thUc nhiing san pham hit. T h i hieu ciia tat ca m p i ngudi khong han la nhung thU dang t h i n h hanh. Chiing ta cang k h a m pha su lua chpn khac, chung ta cang thay no t h i i v j . That khong may la trong nhung thap nien gan day, nhirng lua chpn khac da b i loai ra ben le b d i nhirng phUdng tien quang cao l d n t i i n g v o n dupe cac nganh cong nghiep dat hang. Kinh te hpc chay theo san p h a m hit se dupe t r i n h bay sau h o n d nhiing chuong t i i p theo. Do la su sang tao ciia mpt ky nguyen ma d do, su khan hiem dien ra d khap ndi: khong cd d u cho de chUa tat ca dia CD, 44

cai duoi dai DVD va games dien tir; khong du man h i n h de chieu tat ca cac bo p h i m duoc san xuat; khong du kenh de truyen d i tat ca cac chuong t r i n h truyen hinh; khong dii song phat thanh de choi tat ca am nhac duoc sang tac; khong d u thoi gian trong mpt ngay de tieu t h u tat ca nhirng thU tren. Do la the gioi ciia su khan hiem. Gid day, vol dich v u ban le va phan phoi tren mang, chiing ta dang budc vao the gidi ciia sU d u thUa. Su khac biet giUa hai the gidi tren that sau sac.

THI TRUONG KHONG GIOI HAN De hieu hon the gidi ciia su du thUa, chung ta hay t r d lai v d i mang ban le am nhac true tuyen Rhapsody. La m p t dich v u cung cap am nhac phai t r a tien qua mang do cong ty RealNetworks sd hUu, Rhapsody hien cung cap h o n 4 trieu bai hat. K h i n g h i e n cUu b a n g t h o n g ke hang thang ciia Rhapsody, ban se thay m p t do t h i dudng cau rat giong vol dudng cau ciia bat cU ciia hang bang nhac nao khac: n h u cau l d n d o i v o l nhirng bai hat t h i n h hanh, giam nhanh d o i v d i nhirng bai hat i t t h i n h hanh hon. Sau day la bang bieu t h i 25 n g h i n bai hat hit dupe tai xuong tU trang mang Rhapsody thang 12/2005. Dieu dau tien ban cd the nhan thay la phan ben trai ciia dd t h i chi cd so lupng bai hat rat it. Dieu do khong

CAI DUOI DAl So bai hat tai xuong tir Rhapsody (vdi tong so bai hat tuong duong vdi so bai hat bÂŁn tai Wal-Mart)

â&#x20AC;˘<o

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

So bai hat (nghin)

ngac nhien. Do la cac bai hat hit. Neu ban la chu mpt ciia hang ban dia va co khong gian bay dia han che, ban tat nhien se t i m each ban nhirng dia gan dinh ciia do t h i nhat. Mac du co hang trieu bai hat du the loai trong catalog nhung h? thong ban le am nhac l d n nhat ciia My WalMart chi lua chpn danh sach bai hat tupng doi gan vdi phan dau ciia do t h i . Nhirng bai hat nay dupe chUa t r o n g 4.500 dia CD. T r e n m a n g Rhapsody,

4.500

album hit chUa 25 nghin bai hat, dieu do ly giai tai sao t o i diing phan ben phai ciia do t h i d do. Dieu ban dang t i m kiem la danh sach ciia Wal-Mart, 200 album hit chiem 90% doanh so ban ra. Tap trung vao cac an pham hit tat nhien la viec lam cd y nghia. Suy cho ciing, cac an pham nay chiem phan ldn t h i trudng. NhUng bai hat thU 5 n g h i n hoac 10 46

Lai duoi dai nghin t r d len thudng co so yeu cau gan vdi 0. Vay tai sao chiing ta lai phai quan tam den nhirng ke thua cuoc d phia cuoi do thi? Do chinh la each chiing ta nghien cuu thi trudng trong the k y trudc. Tat ca nhiing ngudi ban le deu cd gidi han k i n h te va hp thudng bo qua mpt so mat hang de giu" lai nhirng mat hang ban chay. Trong nen van hda chay theo hit, ngudi ta thudng chi cham cham chii y den phan ben trai ciia do t h i va co gang doan xem san p h a m nao se dUdc xep vao ben do. Tuy nhien, chiing ta ciing thay doi each t u duy do. Sau m p t the k y chi chii y den phan trai, gid hay quay dau sang phan ben phai ciia do t h i . Chang cd gi dang chii y, toi h i e u Khong cd gi d do, diing khong? Cac ban da sai r o i - hay xem k y hon. Gid t h i k y hon nUa. Ban se thay hai dieu. ThU nhat, do t h i khong han tien gan den so 0. Chi cd ve n h u vay thoi b d i v i m p t dPn v i ciia true tung da dupe nen lai. De hieu rd hdn ve thi trudng ngach, chiing ta hay x e m k y hon. Do t h i tiep rue tU bai hat thU 25 nghin den bai 100 nghin. T o i da thay doi don v i do ciia true tung de do t h j tiep rue hien t h i rd hon. N h u cac ban da n h i n thay, so lupng cac bai hat dupe tai xuong van rat l d n . 0" phan cuoi ciia do t h j , van co 250 lan tai xuong cho m o i bai hat. Nhiing bai hat khong thuoc hit nay cd so lupng rat ldn, do do dong gdp dang ke vao doanh t h u . Phan ben phai ciia do t h i chay dpc theo t n i c hoanh chiem t d i 22 trieu lan tai/thang, tUc gan m p t phan t u doanh t h u ciia Rhapsody. 47

CAl DUOI DAI

Tat nhien la moi chuyen chua dung lai d do. Hay xem gan hon va t i m tiep. Lan nay, xem phan cuoi cua Cai duoi: Vol bai hat thu" 100 nghin den 800 nghin, nhirng bai hat khong the t i m thay of dau ngoai nhiing ciia hang bang dia chuyen nghiep.

Cai duoi dai N h u cac ban da n h i n thay, do t h j van chua cham so 0. Tren thuc te, k h u vuc nay ciia do t h i co 16 trieu lan tai xuong, tUc 15% doanh t h u ciia Rhapsody. Moi bai hat chi chiem t h i phan rat nho, nhung co qua nhieu bai hat, do do tao thanh t h i trudng ldn. Nam 2005, Rhapsody chi cd 1,5 trieu bai hat. Hien gid con so nay la 4 trieu (Hien cd h o n 9 trieu bai hat duoc trao dd'i qua h i n h thUc

peer-to-peer).

Dieu dang chu y la hau n h u tat ca cac bai hat deu duoc mua. Theo quan diem ciia m o t ciia hang n h u Wal-Mart, so luong cac bai hat dung lai d con so 60 nghin. Tuy nhien, d o i v d i mQt nha ban le tren mang n h u Rhapsody, t h i trudng nay dudng n h u khong cd gidi han. Khong chi cac bai hat nam trong so 60 nghin dau tien ciia Rhapsody duoc tai xuong i t nhat mot lan trong thang ma ca cac bai hat trong so 100 nghin, 200 nghin, 400 nghin, 600 nghin, 900 nghin va horn nUa. Ngay k h i Rhapsody bo sung them bai hat t h i ngay lap tUc nhung bai hat nay dupe tai xuong, cd k h i chi vai ngudi m o i thang va ho den tU m o t n o i nao do tren the gidi. Do chinh la Cai duoi

dai.

TU day, ban cd the t i m dupe bat cU thU gi dudi dang Cai duoi ddl Cd nhirng catalog, album tU lau dupe nhiing ngudi h a m m d yeu thich hay dupe t i m thay b d l n h i i h g khach hang m d i . Cd n h i i n g bai hat dupe phat true tiep, dupe t h u lai, p h o i k h i lai... Cd hang nghin thi trudng

ngach,

hang loat the loai ciia the loai ciia the

loai (hay tudng tupng m p t ciia hang Tower

Records

chuyen ban dta ciia cac ban nhac de kieu tdc giong 49

CAl DUOI DAI nhting nam 1980, hay nhac giai tri). Co ca ban nhac nude ngoai, trudc day khong the mua dupe dia a i a hp v l chi p h i nhap khau, va nhimg ban nhac khong ten tuoi hay nhiing thuong hieu tham chi i t ten tuoi hon - nhieu thuong hieu khong the len chan vao ciia hang

Tower.

Diing la co nhieu bai hat khong hay trong Cai duoi dai. Tuy nhien, ciing co khong i t bai hat do" trong nhung album dupe coi la hit. Ngudi nghe thuong bo qua nhirng bai hat nay k h i bat dia CD, cung n h u khong de y den chiing k h i nghe tren mang ma chi tap trung vao nhirng bai hat ma hp thich (v6i su gCi y ciia ngudi nghe tren mang). Do do, khong giong n h u cac dia CD - v d i chi p h i cho cac bai hat do" co the chiem 1/12 gia thanh album la 15 ddla, tat ca cac bai hat khong hay tren mang dupe l u u trU cung nhau va khong gay anh hudng gi den cac bai hat dupe lua chpn tuy theo sd thich ciia m o i ngudi. Dieu thuc su gay ngac nhien ve Cai duoi dai chinh la quy mo ciia no. 6" day, neu ban biet khai thac nhung thi trWcfng ngach t h i tong hop chiing lai, ban cd the dat dude doanh so sanh ngang v d i t h i t r u d n g san pham hit. Hay lay sach l a m v i du. Mpt ciia hang sach ldn trong he thong Barnes&Noble trung b i n h cd khoang 100 nghin dau sach. Tuy nhien, khoang m p t phan t u doanh so ban ra ciia cong ty tren mang Amazon la cac loai sach ngoai danh muc tren. Hay xem tac dong ciia viec nay: So lieu thong ke ciia A m a z o n cho thay t h i trudng sach nhdnh

chiem t d i m p t phan ba td'ng t h i

trudng sach. Dang chu y la t h j trudng nay dang tang 50

Cai duoi dai len. Neu x u the tang trudng nay tiep rue, t h i trudng sach t i e m nang se gap n i d i t h i trudng sach hien nay, chi vol m p t dieu kien la chung ta vtfpt. qua dupe nhiing kho k h a n ciia k i n h te hoc khan niem. Kevin Laws, nha t u ban mao niem, dong thoi trudc day tUng la nha t u van ve am nhac cho rang: "Loi nhuan l d n nhat n a m d nhiing mat hang cd doanh so nho nhat". Dieu nay diing doi v o l cac t h i trudng Cai duoi dai khac ma chung ta vUa nghien cUu: Thj truong mdi cua c&c skn phim ma ban chi co thi tim tren mang

Nhung san phim khc-ng ducc ban tai cac cua hang ban 16 thdng thi/cng DO l$u tCrcac c6ng ty va ucts lut?ng <H)c $p; thang Ba 2008 51

CAl DUOI DAI Hien nay, nhirng doanh nghiep thanh cong nhat dang khai thac toi da t h i trudng Cai duoi dai theo each nay hay each khac. V i du, Google co doanh t h u phan l d n khong phai t i i nhirng nha quang cao 1cm, ma nr nhung nha san xuat nho (Cai duoi dai quang cao). eBay cung khai thac t h i trudng nay - cac san

pham

ngach n h u dtd hay gay choi golf cu. Bang each vupt qua gidi han ciia dia l y va quy md, nhiing cong ty n h u tren khong chi m d rdng duoc t h i trudng da cd, ma con kham pha them nhung thi trudng ngach hoan toan mdi. Hern the, nhung t h i trudng m d i khong nam trong tam vol ciia cac nha ban le don thuan lai cd doanh t h u l d n hon rat nhieu so vol ky vong - va ngay cang l d n hon. Tren thuc te, k h i cac cong ty nay cung cap ngay cang nhieu san pham (don gian la v i ho cd the lam duoc dieu do), hQ phat hien ra rang cau thuc te se tang theo kha nang cung cap. Viec cd them nhieu su lua chon da giup giai phong n h u cau. Chiing ta chua xac dinh dupe n h u cau do xuat phat tU nhiing san pham

ngach hay m d i

phat sinh. Dieu chiing ta biet chac chan la vdi cac cong ty co day d u so Ueu thong ke - n h u Netflix, Amazon, Rhapsody - doanh so ban ra ciia cac san pham khong co trong cac ciia hang thong thudng chiem tU mOt phan t u den gan m p t phan hai td'ng doanh t h u - va ty le do tang len m o i n a m Noi each khac, phan t h i trudng t&ng trudng

nhanh

nhat khong phai la t h i trudng truyen

thong duoc cat trong cac kho chUa hang truyen thong. Nhiing doanh nghiep cd kho chUa hang v d t | n tren da hoc dupe mpt each cd hieu qua bai hpc trong phep 52

Cai duoi dai toan m o i : mot so lifting rat, rat ldn (san pham ciia Cai duoi) nhan vdi mot so tifctng doi be (doanh so ban ra ciia mot san pham) se cho tong doanh thu rat, rat ldn. Dang chu y la so lupng rat, rat l d n do dang tiep Uic tang len. Dieu dang chu y nUa la viec ban hang trieu san p h a m ngach

do van mang lai hieu qua k i n h te. Viec

khong phai tra chi p h i lvru kho - trong trudng hop cac dich v u so n h u ciia iTunes, khong phai tra chi p h i san xuat hay chi phai tra chi p h i giao hang khong dang ke - m p t san pham

ngach dupe ban ra mang lai hieu

qua n h u m p t san p h a m hit. Lan dau tien trong lich sU, viec san xuat nhirng san pham hitvk

san pham

ngach

cd cung chi p h i san xuat v i ca hai loai san pham do deu la cac t h u muc dupe l u u trU trong co sd dU Ueu l u o n san sang dap Ung n h u cau va co ciing gia t r i . Dpt nhien, so lupng khong con quyet dinh den l p i nhuan. Mpt nen van hda va thuong mai m d i se la:

CAI DUOI DAI Sir pho bien cua am nhac tren mang (Tai Rhapsody, thang 12-2005)

25,000 50,000 100,000 Ten bai hat xe'p theo sir pho bien

D 6 N G

900,000

TIEM A N

Co mpt each de thay su khac biet ve sU han che trong lua chpn ciia qua k h i i va su phong p h i i ciia hien tai la so sanh giiia cac hon dao trong dai duong va toan bp dai duong menh mong. Co nhirng h o n dao am nhac gom cac dia hat hit, hon dao di?n anh vcri cac bp p h i m b o m tan, quan dao cac chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h an khach... Chiing ta hay nghi ve duong nude ranh gidi gitfa cac hon dao va dai duong n h u nhirng han che ve mat k i n h te doi v d i rung loai hang hda, nghia la lupng ban ra

Cai duoi dai can thiet de dap ung cac kenh phan phoi. Nhirng hon dao dai dien cho nhung san pham dai chung phia tren dudng ranh gidi, do do mang lai l o i nhuan d i i de dua vao kenh phan phoi v o l so luong han che ve kho chUa hang hda d o i v o l hau het ngudi ban le. Hay n h i n ra phia chan trdi, ta se thay dinh cua cac hon dao noi len tren mat nude dai dien cho cac mat hang co so lupng khach m u a dong dao nhat. Tuy nhien, nhirng hdn dao do chi la phan nho len cua nhiing ngpn n u i chim dudl nude. Vdi viec chi p h i phan phoi giam xuong, giong n h u muc nude d dai duong ha xuong, bong nhien nhirng gi trudc day tiem an dupe 16 ra. Chua het, phan phia dudl dudng ranh gidi nude l d n hon rat, rat nhieu so vol nhirng gi 16 tren mat nude. Nhirng gi chiing ta dang chiing kien la viec cac nha ban le tren mang t i m each gia tang cao hieu qua kinh te ciia phan qua m i i trudc kia van chim trong nude. H o n 99% so l u p n g album tren t h i t r u d n g hien nay khong dupe bay ban tai he thong Wal-Mart. T r o n g so hon 200 n g h i n p h i m , chuong t r i n h truyen hinh, p h i m tai Ueu va bang h i n h dupe cong chieu thuong mai, chi cd t r u n g b i n h 3 n g h i n p h i m t r d thanh p h i m b o m tan. Dieu nay ciing dung d o i v d i bat k y nha ban le nao, vdi bat k y san p h a m nao, tU sach cho den dung cu nha bep. Phan l d n cac san p h a m khong dupe bay ban tai ciia hang gan nha ban. D u n g la k i n h te hpc khan n i e m t r u y e n t h o n g chay theo hit da l a m giam dang ke s u lUa chpn. 55

CAl DUOI DAI Khi chiing ta co the giam dang ke chi p h i ket noi cau va cung, chiing ta se tao ra sU thay doi, khong chi ve nhirng con so ma toan bo ban chat ciia t h i trudng. Day khong

dan thuan

la sir thay doi ve lUcfng, md cd sU

thay doi ve chat. Viec cung cap cho khach hang nhirng san pham trudc day chua he co se giup giai phong nhu cau tiem an doi vol cac san pham nay. Tiep do, k h i nhu cau tang len doi vol cac mat hang nhdnh, se ngay cang co nhieu mat hang dupe cung cap. MQi viec cii the dien ra, tao nen m p t dudng cong l a m thay d o i toan bp nganh cong nghiep - va ca van hda - trong nhirng thap nien tiep theo.

SI/ H U N G T H I N H V A SUY V O N G CUA S A N PHAM

HIT

VAN HOA CTJC B0 LA NGOAI L$, KHONG PHAI LA LUAT Lfi

Tnldc Cach mang cong nghiep, da so cac nen van hoa mang t i n h chat dia phuong. Nen k i n h te dua vao ndng nghiep, dan cu phan p h o i theo dat canh tac, va khoang each dia l y chia cat cac dan toe. Van hoa b i chia nho, tao nen m o i thU tU giong n o i dia phuong den am nhac dan gian. Viec thieu he thong giao thong va truyen thong toe do cao da han che qua trinh giao thoa van hoa cung n h u truyen ba cac x u hudng va t u tudng mdi. Do la thdi k y sd khai ciia van hoa ngach va la thdi k y b i chi p h o i b d i dia l y h d n la su tudng dong. Tac dong ciia van hda v d i m o i vung khong giong nhau v i cd qua i t phUdng tien truyen tai van hda dai chiing. Ngoai su lan truyen ciia m o t so v d kich va mot so luong nho sach van hoc, hau het van hda khong lan 57

CAI BUOI DAI nhanh hon su d i chuyen ciia con ngudi. Co mot ly do giai thich viec Nha t h d t r d thanh noi quy t u van hoa dai chiing tai cac nude phuong Tay la n o i nay cd co sd ha tang phan p h o i t o t va n h d k y thuat i n ciia Gutenberg - K i n h thanh da t r d thanh phuong tien truyen ba cong cong rpng rai nhat. Nhung vao dau the k y 19, k y nguyen ciia cong nghiep hien dai va su phat trien ciia he thong dudng sat da tao ra lan song do t h i hda rpng khap va su ldn manh ciia cac dai do thi d chau Au. Su! giao thoa thuong mai va giao thong da tao co hpi cho con ngudi hda nhap vdi nhau d mUc dp chua tung cd, tao ra nguon luc manh ve mpt nen van hda m d i . Tat ca nhung gi can thiet la mpt phuong tien truyen thong de chap canh cho su phat trien nay. Vao niia cuoi the ky 19, m p t so ky thuat m d i xuat hien da ciing co them cho su phat trien nay. T h i i nhat, ky thuat i n dupe nang len dang ke va t r d thanh x u the chii dao. T h i i hai, ky thuat "nia anh" lam cho viec chup anh t r d nen pho bien. Cuoi ciing, vao nam 1877, Edison phat m i n h ra may quay dia. Nhiing ky thuat m d i nay tao ra m p t lan song truyen ba van hda dai chiing dau tien, dupe truyen tai qua cac phuong tien truyen thong n h u bao va tap chi cd h i n h m i n h hoa, tieu thuyet, dia hat, so' tay chinh tri, bUu thiep, thiep chuc mung, sach cho tre em, va cac danh muc thuong pham khac. Ben canh viec pho' bien t i n tUc, bao chi ciing gop phan truyen ba cac mau thdi trang theo phong each

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit thanh t h i m d i nhat ciia New York, London va Paris d i khap noi. Them vao do, dau the ky 20, Edison lai tao ra m o t t h i trudng rpng l d n khac ve di?n arm, cung cap cho cac nghe si san khau mpt h i n h thUc ghi h i n h mdi, co the dupe "trinh chieu" d nhieu thanh pho ciing mpt liic, v d i m p t lupng khan gia l d n hon. Chiing ta la nhung sinh vat song theo cong dong, chiu anh hudng l d n t i l nhirng gi ngudi khac lam. Va gid day, v d i su ra d d i ciia p h i m anh, da xuat hien mot hinh thUc truyen thong khong chi cho chiing ta thay canh ngudi khac dang l a m gi, ma con cd site hap dan l d n t d i mUc khd cd the cudng lai doi vdi cong chiing... Do la b u o i b i n h m i n h ciia t h d i dai nhung ngudi n o i tieng . 1

Nhiing h i n h thUc truyen tai van hda day sUc thuyet phuc nay cd tac dung gan ket con ngudi, vupt qua khong gian va t h d i gian, tao nen m p t xa h p i cd t i n h dong bp. i i n dau tien trong lich sii, chiing ta chac chan rang hang x d m ciia chiing ta dpc nhung t i n trie ma chiing ta cung dpc tren bao vao m o i bud'i sang, va ciing thudng thUc m p t loai am nhac va dien anh, dieu do ciing dung v d i tat ca m p i ngudi tren toan quoc. SU phat trien m a n h me ciia k y thuat truyen thong dai chiing khong han dupe hoan nghenh tren toan the gidi. Nam 1936, nha triet hpc theo chii nghia Mac, Walter Benjamin, da bay to m o i lo ngai d o i vdi nguy co mat dan "tinh hoa ciia con ngudi" (nghe thuat sieu 1

Nguyen ban tieng Anh: Celebrity age. 59

CAl DUOI DAI viet) trong thdi dai san xuat bang may mdc nay. Ong nhan manh cac v i d u ve p h i m anh, cung v d i h i n h thUc am nhac ghi am thay v i bieu dien: Ong lo ngai "hinh thUc tai san xuat nghe thuat bang may mdc cd the lam thay doi thai do ciia cong chiing d o i v d i nghe thuat. Thai do bao t h i i doi v d i tranh ve ciia hoa si Picasso lai t r d thanh phan ling tien bo doi v o l p h i m ciia vua he Sacld... Tac pham t a m thudng dupe don nhan khong phe phan trong k h i tac pham nghe thuat lai b i chi trich day ac cam."

Nhung ong chua thay duoc het ban chat ciia sU viec. SU bung no' tiep theo ciia truyen thanh va truyen hinh cuoi ciing da l a m thay dd'i hoan toan cuoc choi. SUc manh ciia song dien tU the hien d kha nang truyen tai thong t i n mien phi di moi hudng can thiet, mot dac uhh gay siing sot ngay tU lan dau tien chiing duoc tung ra, giong n h u suxuat hien ciia mang Internet 50 nam sau. Kha nang tiep can tat ca m o i ngudi v d i mUc chi phi thap ciia mot chuong t r i n h phat thanh trong vong ban ldnh hang chuc dam hap dan den mUc dai phat thanh RCA da quyet dinh san xuat may dai phat thanh tU dau nhung nam 1920 vdi mUc t r d cap nhat dinh de lam tang so ngudi sii dung dai t h u chUdng t r i n h ciia RCA.

6 defy cd le Walter Benjamin muon dtfa ra su ttftmg phan trong thai dO vol san pham van hoa khac nhau, tuy khong han da chinh xac trong truotig hop phim ciia vua he Saclo, tut danh hai Charlie Chaplin. 60

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit Tuy nhien cac dai phat thanh dia phuong va k h u vuc van chi de phuc v u cac khan gia tai dia phuong va k h u vuc do. D o i v o l cac nha quang cao, so lupng khan gia nay chua d u 1cm. De p h u song toan quoc, can phai co m o t cong nghe khac. Nam 1922, bp phan dieu hanh tai dia phuong ciia cong t y Bell va bp phan dudng dai ciia cong t y AT&T da phat m i n h ra k y thuat truyen tai giong n o i va am thanh qua mang dien thoai dudng dai. Dai phat thanh WEAF ciia New York, trong thU nghiem ky thuat m d i nay, da tap hpp thanh m p t lich phat thanh t h u d n g xuyen va sang tao ra m p t so h i n h thUc t r u y e n t h o n g dau tien cd ket hpp v d i su ho t r p hay tai t r p mang t i n h t h u o n g mai. Cac chuong t r i n h nay dupe p h a n p h o i l a i cho cac dai p h a t t h a n h ngoai thanh p h o New York qua dien thoai dudng dai. Ke hoach do da ngay lap tUc thanh cong va tao ra nhUng m o i hen ket ho t r p lan nhau v d i cac dai phat thanh khac, t r u y e n tai t r e n toan quoc nhirng thong t i n the thao hay s u k i e n chinh t r i v o n xua nay chi dupe phat song tai d i a p h u o n g . Do la s u k h d l dau ciia h i n h thUc dupe biet den v d i la "mang l u d i " phat thanh hay "chuoi mat xich" phat thanh. Do cung la giai doan dau ciia m p t nen van hda toan quoc, tudng u n g v o l doan hoa am ba not ciia dai phat t h a n h NBC, ban dau la m p t he thong t i n hiÂŁu diing cho cac k y s u mang, dupe chuyen de dua t i n va giai t r i . T r o n g giai doan t i i 1935 den nhung n a m 1950, t h d i dai hoang k i m ciia T r u y e n thanh da gdp phan vao su 61

CAI DUOI DAI xuat hien rihieu ngoi sao n o i tieng tren toan quoc, tOf Edward R. M u r r o w cho den Bing Crosby. Sau do, truyen hinh ke tuc thanh cong ciia truyen thanh, cham dut thdi ky van hoa manh miin, cue bp. Den nam 1954, co den 74% ho gia dinh theo doi bo p h i m Toi yeu Lucy vao m o i t o i Chii nhat. Thoi dai hoang k i m ciia Truyen h i n h danh dau dinh cao ciia cai goi la hieu itng tan nhiet, thuat ngii chi nhirng 161 ban tan trong cac van phong ve mot su kien van hoa dai chiing. Vao nhiing nam 1950, 1960, hau het m o i ngudi trong ciing m o t co quan da xem ciing chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h vao t o i h d m trudc. Da so cong chiing ning xem phat thanh vien Walter Cronkite doc t i n tUc bud'i toi, va sau do chuyen sang xem cac chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h hit trong ciing b u o i t o i nhu: Nhac dan gian Beverly, Khoi sung, hay Chtfctng cua Andy

trinh

Griffith.

Trong suot thap nien 80, 90 va t h a m chi ca trong the k y 2 1 , truyen h i n h tiep tuc la phuong tien truyen thong cong cong quan trong d My. Thdi diem sii dung nude cao nhat thudng dupe do vao gid nghi giUa hiep t h i dau ciia tran chung ket bong chay Super Bowl . Ky 1

luc sii dung mang dien thoai dupe do k h i khan gia gpi dien b i n h chpn t r o n g chuong t r i n h American

Idol

(Than twang Am nhac My) dau tien. Hang nam, doanh t h u quang cao tren truyen h i n h deu xac lap k y luc mdi 1 Day la khoang thdi gian ma hau het moi nguoi of trong nha de xem tran dau bong chay. 62

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit do cac cong ty chi tieu ngay cang nhieu cho chuong t r i n h quang cao tren vo tuyen vao gid cao diem. Chinh truyen h i n h da d i n h h i n h m p t trao l u u chinh. Gid cao diem cd the khong phai la khoang thdi gian doc nhat, nhung do la khoang t h d i gian cd y nghia duy nhat. Tuy nhien, vao cuoi thap nien 90, mac d u nhUng mang l u d i t r u y i n thong van gat hai dupe nhieu thanh cong ve doanh thu, nen tang van hda da cd sU thay doi ngam. NhUng ran nUt dau tien xuat hien tai h n h vuc m a gidi tre thudng nd'i loan: do la am nhac. Mac d u con ngudi thudng thUc am nhac trong giai doan dau qua nhirng chiec may quay dia hat, nhung phai den thdi k y dai phat thanh dUdc sii dung pho bien t h i nhirng than tupng nhac nhe m o i dupe tao ra. Trong thap nien 40 va 50, Chuong

trinh

Your Hit

Parade

dupe co d i n h phat song vao cac t o i Chii nhat, t u tao cho no h i n h anh n h u "mpt bang xep hang chinh xac, dang t i n cay ve t h i hieu am nhac ciia cong chiing My". TU do, sU xuat hien ciia dong nhac Rock and Roll va R&B da t h u h u t ngay cang nhieu gidi tre; danh sach cac bai hat theo sd thich ca nhan va DJ nd'i tieng ciia song phat thanh cung phat trien khong ngUng. Trong t h a p n i e n 1950, A l a n Freed va M u r r a y "the K " K a u f m a n da gop phan bien dai phat thanh thanh loai may dupe u u thich nhat chua tung cd tren the gidi. SU t h i n h hanh ciia dai phat thanh dat den hit k h i chudng t r i n h American

Top 40 ra ddi, m p t chuomg

t r i n h phat song hang tuan do ca si Casey Kasem k h d l xudng vao n a m 1970. ChUdng t r i n h nay dai 3 gid dong 63

CAl BUOI DAI ho, gioi thieu 40 bai hat diing dau trong bang xep hang 100 bai hat dia don hit ciia Billboard theo t h i i t u t i i duoi len. Den dau nhiing nam 1980, thdi luong chuong t r i n h duoc nang len 4 gid dong ho va khan gia cd the thudng thUc chuong t r i n h vao Chii nhat hang tuan tU 500 dai phat thanh tren toan nude My. D o i v o l the he tre l d n len trong thap nien 70 va 80, day la t i n hieu chuyen tai van hoa dai chiing. Hang tuan, hang trieu ngudi trong so hp ciing hda m i n h vao chuong trinh vol nhieu ngudi khac tren khap dat nude, cung theo doi ban nhac nao duoc len hang va xuong hang trong danh sach cac bai hat hit ma cac dia nhac ciia no ban chay den mUc khong b i t o n dpng tren ke dia ciia cac ciia hang ban bang dia.

SU K E T T H U C C U A THCfl D A I C A C CHUONG T R I N H HIT Budc vao the ky 21, nganh am nhac - co may san xuat cac bai hat hit - da phat trien bung no. Su thanh cong vang dpi ve 2 doanh t h u ciia cac ca si tre tuoi tU Britney Spears den n h o m Backstreet Boys - cho thay viec Icinh doanh da len I d i vao nhip song van hda ciia gidi tre My. Cac hang cd ten tuoi dS gdp phan hoan thien qua t r i n h san xuat nhiing nhac pham n o i tieng cd doanh t h u khd'ng lo, va nay cac bp phan tiep t h j ciia hp cd the d u doan va tao ra san p h a m dap Ung t h i hieu cong chiing v d i dp chinh xac cao.

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit Ngay 21 thang 3 nam 2000, Hang Jive Records da chiing m i n h thuc te tren k h i tung ra dia nhac thU hai cua *NSYNC mang ten No Strings Attached,

day la dia

nhac m d i va hay nhat cua ban nhac. Ban nhac *NSYNC da turng t h u duoc nhung thanh cong k h i hop tac vol mot hang l d n hon, BMG, nhung theo su t u van ciia cac co van tiep thi, ban nhac da chuyen sang hop tac vdi hang Jive thien ve nhac dong que de t h u hut nhieu hon nUa su m i n m d ciia cong chung b i n h dan (va lam thay doi h i n h anh cd ve dang l u i tan ciia ban nhac). Su thay dd'i nay da phat huy tac dung. Dia nhac m d i do ban dupe 2,4 trieu ban ngay trong tuan phat hanh dau tien va t r d thanh dia nhac ban chay va nhanh nhat tU trudc tdi nay. No dung dau bang xep hang trong tam tuan lien va tinh den cudi nam da ban duoc hon 11 trieu ban. Nganh am nhac ciing pha v d quy luat k i n h doanh. Ho da t i m ra nhUng phuong phap khac nhau de san xuat cac bai hat hit, va k h i n h i n lai, phuong phap nay cd ve rat kha t h i : quang cao h i n h anh nhirng dan ong tre khoe de t h u hiit cac cd gai. Bi quyet tao ra ca si Elvis t h i nay cung cd the duoc ap dung vol quy m d cong nghiep. Do chinh la chuan b i ky ve ngoai h i n h va h i n h anh ciia ca si n o i tieng trudc cong chiing. Con ban than a m nhac khong phai la van de chinh. A m nhac duoc thue l a m ben ngoai bdl mQt n h o m nhac si chuyen nghiep (cd khoang 52 ngudi da t h a m gia san xuat dia nhac No Strings

Attached).

Cac hang n o i tieng cd l y do de t u t i n k h i dau t u cho ca si. Ngudi h a m mo l u ludt keo den cac ciia hang. 65

CAl DUOI DAI Trong giai doan tU 1990 den 2000, so lupng cac dia nhac ban ra tang gap doi, mpt ty 1? tang trudng nhanh nhat trong l i c h sut cua nganh am nhac. Nganh am nhac chi thua nganh dien anh trong tat ca cac nganh giai t r i . Tuy nhien, ngay k h i *NSYNC dang v u i mung v i ban dupe rat nhieu dia nhac, t h i n M n g thay doi can ban lai am tham dien ra. Chi so chiing khoan Nasdaq da sut giam m p t tuan trudc k h i dia nhac dupe tung ra thi trudng, va tiep rue giam dang ke cho den het nam k h i bong bong dot.com tan vd. Khong mpt dia nhac nao khac dat dupe hit ban chay vao nam do va tong so dia nhac ban ra cung giam. Do la lan giam thU ba trong vong hai thap nien. Trong nhung nam tiep theo, ngay ca k h i nen kinh te phuc hoi, viec k i n h doanh trong nganh am nhac van t r i tr?. Mpt su thay d o i mang t i n h nem tang co ban da thay dd'i tU nam 2000. Td'ng doanh so ban ra giam 2,5% trong nam 2001, 6,8% nam 2002, va van tiep tuc giam. Den cuoi nam 2005, (giam them 7%), td'ng doanh so dia nhac ban ra d My da giam hon m p t phan t u so vdi thdi ky d i n h cao. Trong vong 5 nam tU 1996-2000 da xuat hien 20 trong td'ng so 100 dia nhac hit ciia m p i thdi dai. Nhung trong 5 nam tiep theo chi xuat hien hai bai hat dupe danh gia la bai hat ciia m p i thdi dai, do la Speakerboxxx/The

Love Blow ciia OutKat va Come

Away with Me ciia Norah Jone - xep thU 92 va 95 trong bang xep hang nay. 66

Sy hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit Theo nhirng con so tren, co the thay ky luc ban chay trong tuan dau tien ciia *NSYNC se khong bao gid b i pha vol. Hay ftfdng tUOng neu ban nhac cua cac chang trai nay dupe ghi danh trong lich sii khong phai v i da san sinh ra ca si Justin Timberlake ma con v i da dat dUOc d i n h cao trong t h d i dai bong bong cac bai hat hit, san pham cuoi ciing ciia dong nhac nhe sU dung co may tigp t h i t i n h xao de dat dUOc hieu qua toi Uu, trudc k h i co may chdn rang va b i hong. Do t h i dudi day m d ta doanh so ban ra ciia tat ca cac dia nhac hit tit nam 1958: dia vang (hon 500 nghin dia dupe ban), dia bach k i m (tU 1-2 trieu dia dupe ban), dia da bach k i m (tU 2-10 trieu dia dupe ban) va dia k i m cUOng (tren 10 trieu dia dupe ban). Cac album hit (vang, bach kim, da bach kim, kim cuang)

Trong giai doan tU 2001 den 2007, td'ng doanh so ban ra ciia nganh am nhac giam m p t phan t u . Trong do, so lupng cac dia nhac hit giam hPn 60%. Vao nam 2000, nam dia nhac dUng dau - g o m ca dia nhac hit 67

CAI DUOI DAl cua Britney Spears cho den dia nhac cua Eminem - ban duoc tong cong 38 trieu ban. Nam 2005, so lupng nam dia nhac diing dau ban dupe chi bang mpt niia con so tren, dat 19,7 trieu ban. Noi each khac, neu nganh am nhac dang chiu thiet hai, t h i viec san xuat cac dia nhac hit con chiu thiet hai nhieu hdn. Ngudi tieu diing dang chuyen sang cac dong nhac thU yeu, gom hang nghin loai nho. It nhat, doi voi am nhac, dieu nay giong n h u su ket thuc mpt thdi k y hoang k i m ciia cac san pham hit.

AI DANH GUC CAC DIA NHAC HIT? Dieu gi da khien cho mpt the he khach hang ciia nganh am nhac - nhUng n g u d i ham mo d dp tuoi thanh thieu nien - tU bd cac gian hang ban dia nhac hit? Cau tra Idi chi don gian la do "an cap ban quyen": tac dong cong h u d n g ciia d i c h v u chia se dU lieu Napster va viec trao dd'i dU lieu tren mang, ciing nhu viec sao chep va b u o n ban dia CD da thuc day su ra ddi ciia hoat dong k i n h doanh ngam ve am nhac, bat ke mpt bai hat nao, vao bat k y thdi gian nao. Can phai ndi m p t chut ve van dk nay. Mac d u cac v u kien trong linh vuc am nhac nhieu den mUc khong dem xue song hÂŁ thong trao dd'i dU lieu peer-to-peer

tiep tuc phat

trien, vdi hon 10 trieu ngudi s i i dung may tinh, hp chia se cac dU lieu am nhac v d i nhau hang ngay. Tuy nhien, cho d u cong nghe da chap canh cho t h j

Sy hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit hieu ciia khach hang t h i ciing khong co nghia la ngudi ham mo dupe phep s i i dung am nhac ma khong phai tra tien. Cong nghe cung cung cap cho khach hang mot sU lua chon phong p h u chUa tiing co ve cac the loai nhac. He thong mang trao d o i dU lieu co u u the hon bat cU m o t ciia hang bang dia nhac nao. Do do, ngudi ham m o da lUa chpn he thong mang nay. Ngay nay, ngudi nghe khong chi tU bo thoi quen mua nhieu dia nhac CD, ma ho cung mat luon ham m u o n suu tap cac dia nhac hit, dieu trudc day cd the khien ho phai lao den ciia hang ban dia vao ngay phat hanh. Do co the de dang lua chon m o t ban nhac nam hay t i m k i e m nhirng bai hat mdi, ngay cang nhieu ngudi chon each k h a m pha bai hat qua he thdng mang va ho thoa man vol nhiing gi t i m duoc. He thong trao doi dU Ueu peer-to-peer

pho b i i n den

mUc mot cong viec p h u da phat trien kem theo. D i dau la trang web BigChampagne, m o t trang l u u t r i i tat ca cac dU lieu dUdc chia se qua cac dich v u trao d o i peerto-peer. Qua cac so Ueu ciia trang web nay, cd the thay t h i hieu ngudi nghe dang chuyen tU cac nhac pham hit sang cac san pham

ngach.

Ngay nay, ngudi h a m m o dang trao doi vol nhau hon 9 trieu bai hat, hau het la cac bai hat khong nam trong Bang xep hang BillBoard

Hot 100 (mot t r a m bai hat

duoc Ua t h i c h nhat). Mot h i n h thUc thudng thUc am nhac cap thap m d i cung dang t h i n h hanh, do la nhac "mashups" (lien khuc) va m o t so the loai nhac dupe t r i n h bay tren nen chip 8-bit tung dupe s i i dung trong 69

CAI BUOI DAl may video games Nintendo. Ngoai ra, rat nhieu loai nhac rock da lam nen nhirng b u o i t r i n h d i i n an tuong nhung khong xuat hien tren song phat thanh. Dang chu y, cac ban nhac nam khong han duoc nhieu nguoi ua thich. Su n o i len ciia cac mang l u d i trao doi dU lieu khong phai la su thay doi budc ngoat duy nhat ve van hoa. Nam 2001, hang Apple da tung ra chiec may nghe nhac iPod dau tien, mot san pham nghe nhac MP3 mau trang, m a u ma don gian v d i chieu dai 10cm, rpng khoang 6cm va day chi cd 2,5cm. Do khong phai la may nghe nhac MP3 dau tien tren t h i trudng, nhung vdi thiet ke trang nha, cue k y gian di, va vdi chien dich tiep t h i hieu qua cao ciia hang Apple, chiec iPod da trd thanh vat dung k y thuat so cam tay diing de nghe nhac khong the thieu ciia nhieu ngudi. K h i m o i ngudi thdi khong diing may nghe nhac walkman va discman, chiec iPod mau trang cd day nghe da nhanh chong pho bien khap n o i va t r d thanh h i n h tuong van hoa mdi. Dieu dang ndi nhat ve chiec iPod nay chinh la bo nhd ciia no v d i dung luong len den 60GB (giga-byte). Chiec iPod cho phep ngudi sir dung dem di khap n o i ca mot t h u vien am nhac, len den 10 nghin bai hat, tuong duong v d i m p t cUa hang bang dia nhac loai nhd. Vai nam sau, chiec may iPod t r d thanh m p t cong cu ghi nhac ca nhan ciia hang trieu ngudi, dong hanh v d i hp k h i di dao pho, k h i lam viec hay k h i d tren cac phUdng tien giao thong cong cong. 70

Sy hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit Tuy nhien, viec ghi day nhac vao chiec iPod vdi cac bai hat se t d n hang nghin ddla. So vdi su mien p h i t h i iPod la m o t cai gia cat cd' dang k i n h ngac. Chiec may nghe nhac t u chon trong nha jukebox diing de tai mien p h i cac bai hat k y thuat so tU Internet xuong may t i n h da t r d thanh chiec may hap d i n khong k e m chiec iPod. Viec truyen ba, i n sao dia, va buon ban dia CD cung tuong t i t n h u vay, giong n h u chien dich quang cao noi tieng ciia Apple da de cap. Mang ludi trao dd'i di2 lieu peer-to-peer

phat trien b i i n g no', ngay cang pho bien

rpng rai n h d vao cac bp suu tap bai hat ciia hang trieu ngudi sir dung. Kยงt qua la: nhieu hien w p n g sao chep, suu tap va an cap ban q u y i n ngay cang lan rpng - gap hang t r a m lan so vol so lupng bang dia ciia bat ky mpt ciia hang nao, va ve co ban, tat ca bai hat do deu san cd trong bat k y may t i n h xach tay ciia ai do. Tat nhien, cac phuong phap ghi nhac mang t i n h dot pha nay ciing tao ra nhUng each thUc hoan toan m d i trong viec kham pha am nhac m d i . Neu viec sao chep dia CD va trao doi am nhac giUa nhiing ngudi ban la "each tiep t h i lan truyen" va m a n h nhat theo kieu nay (truyen tU ngudi nay sang ngudi khac), t h i viec chia se cac danh sach bai hat la h i n h thUc truyen ba vol quy m d cong nghiep. Tham chi con cd ca djch v u gpi y nghe nhac n h u trang web Pandora va hang t r a m dai phat thanh va mang k i n h doanh tren Internet, khong nhiing giup ngudi h a m mp biet den nhUng nghe si i t ten t u o i nhat, m a con doan biet t h j hieu nghe nhac ciia cac ca nhan v o l dp chinh xac ngay cang cao. 71

CAI DUOI DAI Dieu gi se xay ra neu co den 400 bang xep hang Top 40, m o i bang xep hang la mot loai nhac khac nhau. Hay co den 40 nghin hoac 400 nghin bang xep hang? Dot nhien, khai niem bai hat hit lai co them mot khai niem bai hat hit-ngdch.

Ben canh mot ngoi sao ca nhac

noi tieng nay co them vo so ngoi sao ca nhac nho hon, va n i cho chi co mot so nho cac ca si u u n i tren t h i trudng truyen thong, nay co den mot so luong rat ldn cac nghe si g l n - u u n i . Su pho' bien ciia "cac bai hat hit" phat trien manh me, m o i loai cd mot k h o i luong khan gia tuy nho nhung gan ket hon. Day khong phai la dieu tudng tuong m a chinh la thuc te dang hien hUu ciia t h i trudng am nhac hien nay. Dich v u am nhac chat luong cao tren mang nhu Rhapsody se het ke i t nhat 400 the loai va tieu the loai nhac (chia nhd cac the loai nhac thanh nhUng dong

nhac m d i , cu

the

nhu

electronica>beats&breaks>cut&paste"),

"nhac

dance/

moi dong nhac

nay co rieng bang xep hang m u d l bai hat hit ciia minh. N h u vay, se cd khoang 4.000 tieu bai hat hit duoc tao ra, m o i bai lai cd y nghia d o i vdi gidi ham m d the loai nhac do nhieu hon cac bai hat hit tren toan quoc trong danh sach do MC Casey Kasem k h d i xudng. TU do, vo so danh muc m u d i bai hat yeu thich dude lap ra mot each linn hoat cho m o i ngudi sir dung tuy theo t h j hieu am nhac va each thUc nghe nhac cu the ciia ho, cho d u nhiing danh sach nay chi pho' bien trong dien hep.

Sa hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit

D I E U B U O N N G A N H TRUYEN T H O N G Nhiing van de nay sinh trong nganh am nhac khong chi la van de ban dia nhac CD. Chuong trinh nhac rock tren dai phat thanh, v o n tU lau la chuong t r i n h quang ba dupe Ua thich ciia cac cong ty ldn, nay dang phai vat Ion de t o n tai. Nam 1993, ngudi My bo ra trung b i n h khoang 23 gid va 15 phut hang tuan de nghe dai. Nhung d i n m u a xuan n a m 2004, con sd nay da giam xuong con 19 gid 45 p h u t . The he ngudi nghe hien nay la lUa tud'i d u d i 27, va chuong t r i n h nhac rock la chuong t r i n h gap nhieu khd khan nhat. Nam 2005, t r u n g b i n h hang

man cd m o t dai phat nhac rock d

My p h a i d o n g ciia. Cac d a i p h a t t h a n h nay p h a i chuyen sang chuong t r i n h d o i thoai hoac t i l n g Latin, n h i i n g chuong t r i n h "nham chan" h o n nhac rock va pop (vi bat k h a n gia nghe lau hon). Con chuong t r i n h nhac r o c k va pop bay g i d chi I d i cuon duoc k h a n gia k h i phat bai hat dang t h i n h hanh. Bang xep hang American

Top 40 bay gid khong con sUc hap dan n h u

trudc; con chuong t r i n h ciia Casey Kasem t h i da hoan toan cham dUt. Cac chuyen gia b i n h luan chua thong nhat dupe da chi ra nguyen nhan chii yeu, nhung d day x i n de cap den m p t so nguyen nhan chinh: Âť

Sir x u a t h i e n cua m a y nghe nhac iPod: D i hen v d i viec ngUng sU dung dai phat thanh, vay con ai nghe chuong t r i n h phat t h a n h tren song FM?

CAI DUOI DAI •

D i e n t h o a i d i dong: Hanh khach t h a m gia giao thong cong cong la nhung v i ciiu t i n h ciia chuong ttinh dai phat thanh trong thap nien 80. Ngay nay, ho van tham gia giao thong cong cong, nhung lai danh thdi gian nhan t i n bang dien thoai di dong.

•

Dao luat v i e n t h o n g 1996: Bo sung t h e m mpt nghin dai phat thanh tren song FM, lam tang su canh tranh va l a m giam doanh t h u ciia cac dai phat thanh hien hanh. Dao luat nay ciing noi long nhiing gioi han sd h i i u ciia m o i t h i trudng.

•

Cong t y Clear Channel: thudng hay do' l o i cho n h i i n g p h i e n toai ciia dai phat thanh, cong ty truyen thong khong lo nay la m p t bieu tupng ciia su k i n h doanh tao bao ciia nganh truyen thong. Khi Dao luat Vien thong gay kho khan cho viec kinh doanh ciia cac dai phat thanh dia phuong vao cu6i thap nien 90, Cong ty Clear Channel da thau torn cac dai phat b i thua lo. Hien nay, cong ty nay da sd h i i u hon 1200 dai phat thanh, chiem mpt phan mudi tong so dai phat thanh loai nay. Ke hoach ciia cong ty la giam dang ke chi p h i phat thanh bang each thuc h i e n chuong t r i n h tap t r u n g hda va chuong t r i n h dai phat dia phuong bang may vi tinh. Ket qua la dan den m p t su dong nhat hoa n h a m chan.

Su thanh t r u n g v a n hoa p h a m khieu d a m cua FCC (Uy ban Truyen thong Lien bang): Day l u o n la mpt phan nhiem v u giam sat ciia FCC (nhu cong viec

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit cua canh sat) ct6i voi nhung gi duoc phat tren song dai phat thanh, n h u n g FCC h i e m k h i thuc hien nghia v u ciia m i n h m o t each manh me n h u trong suot 5 n a m qua. Muc tieu chinh la Howard Stern, mot dai phat thanh la cai ciia t u nhan. Sau k h i phai ganh chiu mUc phat nang chua tung co, Stern cuoi ciing phai t u bo viec phat song truyen thanh tren mat dat. Nhung cuoi n a m 2005, ong ta chuyen den dai phat thanh ve tinh Sirius, thang Gieng 2006, ong ta lai xuat hien - hau n h u khong b i kiem duyet trudc cac thinh gia dang k y nghe dai phat nay. Hien nay, cac dai phat thanh cd them ly do de lo ngai rang nhung gi ho noi hay hanh dong khong chi lam ton tien ciia ho ma cd k h i con lam ho mat viec. Ket qua la: su dong nhat hoa cang tang len. Ket cue ciia qua trinh xuong doc ciia cac chuong t r i n h phat nhac r o c k cho thay su ket thiic ciia k y nguyen Bang xep hang Top 40. Tuy nhien, ban than am nhac khong b i lang quen - nay la thdi diem tot chua tung cd cho m o t nghe si hay ngudi h a m md. Chinh Internet la nhan to k h a m pha cuoi ciing doi v d i nen am nhac mdL Cac h i n h thUc truyen thong n h u tiep thi, ban va phan p h o i nhac pham khong con duoc ua thich. Cac cong ty l d n va h? thong phan p h o i le tung phat trien v d i quy m d khong lo phia sau co may san xuat bai hat hit tren dai phat thanh, chinh la bieu tuong cho m d h i n h l a n h doanh dua vao n h i i n g bai hat hit xep hang bach k i m - nhung ngay nay hau n h u khong con

CAl DUOI DAI d u cac loai bai hat bach k i m de giup cac cong ty tren phat trien. Chung ta dang chung k i l n su ket thuc cua m o t t h o i dai. Nhiing ai co chiec may nghe nhac iPod mau trang cung co the nghe dai phat thanh mien phi. T h i hieu da chuyen n i nghe nhac theo phong trao s6 dong sang nhiing bai hat yeu thich theo each lua chpn ciia tiing ngudi va viec khai thac cac the loai nhac da vupt qua ca nhirng dong nhac chii luu, de d i n v d i ca nhirng dong nhac tuong doi i t ten t u o i hay quay ngupc thdi gian t r d ve vdi cac loai nhac cd dien. Trong bai phat bieu nam 2005, Rupert Murdoch, chu tich News Corp, cho rang ong la mpt trong nhiing ngudi dau tien cua nganh truyen thong thay dupe tam quan trong ciia n h o m Uu n i hien nay so v d i nhiing phan n i nghiep du: "Gidi tre khong m u d n dua vao mpt v i than thanh n i tren cao chi cho hp thay cai gi la quan trpng. Hp muon t u kiem soat phuong tien truyen thong ciia m i n h , thay v i b i phuong tien t r u y i n thong chi phoi". Nhiing gi dien ra trong linn vuc am nhac cung tuong t u n h u cac linh vuc khac trong nganh truyen thong va giai t r i . Hay xem xet nhiing so Ueu ciia nam 2005: â&#x20AC;˘

Viec ban ve xem p h i m Hollywood giam 7%, bat dau cd x u hudng tiep rue giam sut tU nam 2001 vdi ty le ngay cang giam nhieu hon.

â&#x20AC;˘

So dpc gia dpc bao, dat ky luc nam 1987, da giam 3% (con so giam l d n nhat t i n h theo rung nam) va

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit nay dang d muc dp thap chua n i n g thay ke n i nhung nam 60. â&#x20AC;˘

Doanh so cua cac quay ban bao dang d muc thap nhat trong 30 nam qua, ke n i k h i xuat hien viec thong ke so lieu.

â&#x20AC;˘

So luong ngudi xem truyen h i n h tiep tuc giam do cac khan gia chay theo cac kenh truyen h i n h cap, n i nam 1985, t h i phan khan gia ciia mang hidi truyen h i n h da giam t i i mot phan ba cho den gan mot niia.

Nganh giai tri dang mat di stic manh ciia no. Hien nay, chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h an khach nhat, CSI, chi duoc 15% ho gia d i n h don xem. Trong nhiing nam 70, con so nho be nay chua bao gid tiing xuat hien doi vol m u d i chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h duoc Ua thich nhat. Tren thuc te, t n i m o t ra t h i tat ca cac chuong t r i n h truyen hinh duoc ua thich deu co n i cuoi thap nien 70, dau thap nien 80 (chuong t r i n h gan day nhat la chuong trinh the thao Olympic Mua dong 1994, cung da phat song mudi l a m nam qua). Tuu trung lai, ngay nay hang t r a m kenh truyen h i n h cap da vupt qua mang ludi truyen hinh de den vdi khan gia nhung khong mpt kenh truyen h i n h cap nao giU v i t r i thong t r i . Tham chi chuong ttinh truyen h i n h von duoc xem nhieu nhat cung khong con giU dupe v i t r i thong t r i . Cac buoi tudng thuat giai bong chay World Series 2005 cd so ngudi h a m m d thap nhat trong lich sii, giam 30% lupng khan gia so vol nam trudc. ChUdng t r i n h truyen 77

CAI DUOI DAI h i n h phat cac tran cau d i n h nam 2005 giai bong r d My NBA ciing dat mUc thap gan ky luc, giam gan mpt phan t u lupng khan gia ke n i nam trudc. Nam 2006, ty le khan gia ciia le trao giai thudng am nhac Grammy cung giam 10%. Chuong trinh tudng thuat Olympic Mua dong 2006 co lupng khan gia thap nhat trong vong 20 nam qua, giam 37% ke n i The van h p i 2002 d thanh pho Salt Lake. Chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h le trao giai Oscar ciing dat khan gia thap nhat ke t i i nam 1987. Phong vien Patrick Goldstein cua t d Thdi bao Los Angeles

cho rang: "Ngay nay, chiing ta la mpt quoc gia

ciia cac san pham ngach. Van co cac bp p h i m b o m tan vdi doanh t h u khong lo, cac chuong t r i n h truyen hinh dupe ua thich, nhung dia nhac CD ban chay ky luc, nhung lai cd i t su kien nam bat dUPc tinh than va thi hieu ciia cong chiing hon. NUdc My dang danh nhieu thdi gian de xem cac chuong trinh truyen hinh cap hoac dpc cac blog nham vao so khan gia dac thii." Su xuat hien ciia TiVo va cac may t h u hinh ky thuat so DVR khac da kich dai sU tan ra ciia hieu Ung lan truyen do loai bo yeu to thdi gian. Ngay nay, tham chi neu m p i ngudi xem ciing chUPng t r i n h giong nhau, hp cd the khong phai xem ciing mot buoi toi hay ciing mpt thdi diem nhat dfrrih. Chang ai muon xem gidi thieu cac chuong trinh da dUdc phat va co the ai do se lam mat su bat ngd doi v d i cac chuong t r i n h ban chua xem v i trudc do hp da xem chUPng t r i n h nay.

Su hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit

NEN K I N H I t C H A Y THEO HIT C H I N H L A NEN V A N H O A C H A Y THEO

HIT

Mac du thdi dai cua san pham hit dupe cong chung yeu thich co the da dat den dinh diem, nhung tac dong cua no doi voi quan diem ciia chiing ta ve truyen thong thi chUa. Cac nganh cong nghiep giai t r i va truyen thong hien hanh van hudng ra khap noi de t i m kiem, botn tien va tao ra cac sieu pham. Cac san pham giai t r i n h u p h i m anh, chUOng t r i n h truyen h i n h hay dia nhac cd the mat nhieu tien de san xuat, tiep t h i va phan phoi. V i du, chi p h i trung b i n h ciia m p t bo p h i m ciia Hollywood hien nay vao khoang 60 trieu ddla My, va co the can them chiing do tien cho quang cao tiep t h i . NhUng hon bao gid het, kho cd the d u doan duoc bd p h i m nao se thu hut dupe khan gia, dieu nay giai thich tai sao cac dao dien va dien vien ten tuoi lai ddi thii lao cao den vay - v i ho mang lai su chac chan cho mpt cong viec kinh doanh day ray bat trac khd ludng. Nhung ke ca k h i cac ngoi sao b i that bai, cac xudng phim, hang noi tieng va cac mang ludi cung thuc hien phuong phap dau t u phan tan bdt rui ro. Giong n h u nhiing nha t u ban dau t u r u i ro, ho dat cupc vao m p t cP so d u an, dau t u vao m o i bp p h i m so tien d u de tao ra co h p i canh tranh gianh hit. Hp ky vong rang trong hoan canh tot nhat hau het cac d u an se hda von, chi can m p t so i t d u an thanh cong. Cd

CAl DUOI DAI nghia la so it bp p h i m dat hit se phai b t i t n i cho su" t r i tre ctia nhirng d u an khac. Do do, kieu k i n h doanh nay thuc su can nhirng san pham dat hit. Va khong chi la nhirng san pham sinh lai - chiing ta dang noi den nhirng bp priim thanh cong va hit. Chi p h i san xuat cao va kha nang thanh cong bap benh tao sUc ep len nhirng bp p h i m gianh chien thang, khong chi thang ma phai thang ldn. Va nhirng bo p h i m con lai t h i sao? The day, nhirng bp p h i m nay co the khong t h u dupe gi ca. Cho d u co the dupe hoan nghenh nhiet liet, tham chi dupe hang trieu khan gia chii y hay don xem, nhung neu cac san pham nay khong t h u lai dupe so tien da bo ra, bp p h i m do b i coi la khong hoan thanh cong viec ho t r p phan con lai ciia phuong phap dau t u nay. Bat tay vao viec tao ra mot san pham hit khong hoan toan giong n h u tao ra mpt bp p h i m hay. Co nhieu viec ban phai lam va khong dupe l a m de dat yeu cau thu hut hang chuc trieu khan gia bo tien mua ve xem phim. Ban phai tra mUc t h u lao cao nhat ma ban kham noi cho mpt sieu sao hang dau. Ban khong dupe lam cho npi dung p h i m "qua thong minh". Phim ciia ban can co mpt ket thuc co hau (happy-ending). Ban khong dupe de nhan vat chinh chet. Neu la mpt bp p h i m hanh dong, co nhieu hieu Ung h i n h anh se tot hon. Va neu m p i cd hpi deu ngang nhau, t h i co le ban nen lam mpt bp phim hanh dpng. Hien nhien la van co the bo qua quy luat nay va van co dupe bp p h i m hit, nhung tai sao lai phai 80

Sy hung thjnh va suy vong cua san pham hit mat cong cti t h i i co hoi khac? Nhat la ban lai clang dau t u m o t khoan tien 1cm. Kieu t u duy chay theo hit nay da lan ra ngoai khong gian Hollywood va len l o i vao nen van hoa toan quoc. Chung ta da chiu tac dong ciia nhirng doi h o i ve mat k i n h tยง ciia cd may san xuat cac an p h a m hit chi de ky vong dat doanh t h u ldn. Chiing ta da tiep t h u each tinh toan ciia viec dau t u giai t r i day r u i ro. Vi the chiing ta theo d o i sat sao doanh t h u cuoi tuan ciia phong ve gidng n h u chiing ta l a m the thao chuyen nghiep - giU diem va tach biet nhUng ngudi chac chan chien thang ra k h d i nhUng ke cd ve de thua tran. Bang viec gan chat v d i ten tud'i ciia ngoi sao, chiing ta k h u y l n khich viec thdi phong luong ciia nhirng ngoi sao trong danh sach loai A va theo sat ddi s6ng xa hoi am i ciia ho ma thuc ra viec ciia hp khong lien quan gi den l p i ich ciia chiing ta. TU sieu sao dien k i n h den mpt chii tich hpi dong quan t r i danh tieng, chiing ta luon quan tam tcfi diem cao nhat ciia the gidi hit mpt each thien lech. Ndi each khac, chiing ta da dupe huan luyen de nhin the gioi qua lang k i n h n h u o m mau ky luc. Neu m p t san p h a m khong phai la hit t h i chi la m p t su that bai. No da thua trong cuoc canh tranh ve hi?u qua k i n h te nay va v i vay ngudi ta cho rang le ra khong nen l a m ra chung. V d i kieu t u duy hudng t d i hit nay, lich s i i dupe viet b d i nhung ngudi h a m m d , va co sd danh gia chat lupng p h i m tot nhat chinh la doanh t h u ciia phong ban ve. Thuc te nay k h o n g chi xay ra d Hollywood. Do cung la each chiing ta danh gia so lupng 81

CAl DUOI DAl bang dia ban ra, lap day cac gid cao diem tren truyen h i n h va lap nen cac danh sach bai hat Ua thich tren dai phat thanh. Do la each xac dinh cac nguon luc khan niem nao dupe coi la "xUng dang" nhat, hay noi each khac, n o i tieng nhat. Cuoi cung, phan Ung ciia chiing ta v o l van hoa chay theo hit lai ciing co them loai van hoa nay. The gioi ciia cac gia de hang hoat dong theo quy luat ke thang ngudi thua: san pham nay chiem cho ciia san pham khac. Bupc p h a i lua chon, m p t each t u nhien, moi nganh giai t r i deu chon nhirng san pham noi tieng nhat, tao cho chung m o t u u the. V d i sUc ep kinh doanh, chiing ta thuc su da n d l rpng khoang each gitia cac san pham nay va nhirng san pham

ngach. Xet ve

mat l o n h te, dieu nay tuong t u n h u cau n o i "Neu chi co mpt i t ngudi giau, hay de cho hp t r d nen giau hon". Ket qua la do doc ciia do t h i dudng cau cang t r d nen doc hon. Tuy nhien, dieu do dang thay doi. Thay v i hinh thUc giai t r i d van phong k h i giao l u u van hoa chi dien ra giUa cac n h o m dong nghiep ciing t i n h each, chung ta ngay cang h i n h thanh nhUng hpi, n h o m den v o l nhau bang nhirng m o i quan tam, sd thich chung h o n la qua cac h i n h thUc giai t r i dupe xac d i n h trudc. Ngay nay, h i n h thUc giai t r i ciia chiing ta ngay cang kho dinh hinh ro rang - cd rat nhieu kieu khac nhau va m p i ngudi t u m i n h chpn n h o m giai t r i de t h a m gia - tap hdp lai vdi nhau khong chi theo dia gidi ma con theo sd thich.

L i / d c sCf CAI BUOI D A l TU WISH BOOK BEN THUONG MAI BhtN TU

Mac d u Cai duoi dai dang t u hien ra khap n d i n h u mot hien tuong ciia thdi dai Internet, nhung khdi nguon ciia no co tU trudc k h i cac cong t y tren mang n h u Amazon va eBay ra ddi, t h a m chi trudc ca su ra d d i ciia Web. Do la k y luc ciia m p t chuoi cai each k i n h doanh each day h o n m p t the k y - nhirng budc tien trong san xuat, t i m kiem, phan p h o i va ban san pham. Hay n g h i den tat ca cac yeu to p h i Internet l a m nen, chang h a n n h u , viec m u a b a n qua A m a z o n : v a n chuyen FedEx, cac so t h U t u tieu chuan quoc te ciia sach (ISBN), the t i n dung, cac dU lieu quan he khach hang, t h a m chi ca cac m a vach. Phai mat hang thap nien de nhirng cong doan cai tien t r o n g k i n h doanh nay xuat hien va phat trien. Internet cho phep dan ket cac budc k i n h doanh v d i

CAI DUOI DAl nhiing cong doan do theo each thtlc tang a l o n g sut manh k i n h doanh va m d rpng tam vol. Noi mot each don gian, su ra doi ciia cac trang Web da thong nhat cac yeu to ciia cuoc each mang ve chuoi cung von dupe ap l i tir hang thap nien. Tren thuc te, Cai duoi ddi va gia de hang vo tan co nguon goc tuf cuoi the ky 19 va ciia hang tong hpp khong lo dau tien - nhirng toa nha nhieu phong 6c tpa lac tren nhung k h u dat cong nghiep gan diem giao cac d u d n g xe liia d viing Midwest ciia My, bat dau tu* Chicago. Dudl v d m nha bang thep rpng menh mong, ky nguyen ciia hang hoa co san, da dang ve chiing loai va de lua chon da xuat hien day ap tren cac tam pallet g6 nang hang cao n h u mii, v d i khdi lupng hang hoa ban ra kha l d n do nen san xuat hang loat m d i me luc do cung cap. Tau hoa da gop p h l n pho' bieii su da dang hang hoa nay thong qua he thong tuyen dudng xe liia, t r d thanh nhan to lam thay dd'i nen k i n h te va van hoa ciia nude My. Ngudi dau tien chiing m i n h cho ngudi tieu diing My thay y nghia ciia nhiing dieu tren la mpt nhan vien dudng sat d North Redwood, bang Minnesota. Ten ong ta la Richard Sears. Nam 1886, m p t b u u kien dong ho ciia mpt ciia hang k i m hoan b i gui nham cho mpt ngudi b u o n ban dia phuong d N o r t h Redwood va ong nay khong m u o n nhan buu kien nham lan do. Sears da mua lai so dong ho do hp ong ta, ban cho cac nhan vien dudng sat khac theo dpc tuyen dudng va dupe mpt 84

Luge su cai duoi dai khoan lai hap dan. T i i do, ong mua nhieu dong ho hon va bat dau k h d i dung m p t cong ty phan phoi dong ho. Vao nam 1887, Sear chuyen viec k i n h doanh den Chicago va dang m o t t i n quang cao tren nhat bao Chicago Daily News m u o n t i m ngudi siia chiia dong ho (ong cho rang chang co ly do gi de vut d i nhirng chiec dong ho b i 16i da b i tra lai). Sau do, Alvah C. Roebuck da hen he v d i ong. Sau nam sau, hai ngudi da hop tac vol nhau va thanh lap cong ty Seas, Roebuck & Co. Cong ty da phat hanh catalog de chao hang dong ho cho ndng dan, nhung ngudi dang b i cac ciia hang tap hda dia phuong va tang ldp trung l u u liia gat. Theo lich sir ciia cong ty Sears, Roebuck & Co., cam ket ma cong ty dua ra rat don gian: "Vdi l p i the ban buon va sii dung dudng sat, buu dien va he thong phan phoi mien p h i tai ndng thdn, cong ty ciia chiing t o i la su lUa chon tot hon cac ciia hang gia cao d nong thdn". T i i thanh cong trong k i n h doanh dong hd, cong ty da nhanh chong m d rpng viec kinh doanh sang cac mat hang khac ma m o t gia d i n h nong thdn hay m p t cong ty deu can den. Cong ty Sears va Roebuck phan phat cac catalog cho cac ndng dan, ciing mpt biic t h u do chinh ong Sears viet, va Cong ty hoan thanh cac yeu cau dat hang ciia khach t i i m p t chuoi cac x i nghiep ngay cang l d n d Chicago. Cuoi ciing, hai ong da xay dung m p t cP sd t r i gia 5 trieu ddla, rpng 40 mau A n h (khoang 4 hecta) dupe s i i dung l a m nPi x i i ly cac dPn dat hang qua b u u dien va xay them ca m p t tda nha 85

CAI BUOI BAI van phong d k h u phia tay Chicago. Khi khai truong nam 1906, tda nha co dien tich mat san rpng xap x i 1 trieu met vuong. Xi nghiep san xuat theo don dat hang qua b u u dien nay la toa nha dung cho k i n h doanh Ion nhat the gidi luc bay gid. NhUng gi nha kho va hoat dong kinh doanh hieu qua ciia Sears va Roebuck tao ra chinh la mot cuoc each mang. Hay tudng tupng ban la mpt nong dan song sau trong thao nguyen Kansas rpng l d n each day hen 100 nam. Cho d ciia ban each xa cUa hang tap hoa gan nhat den vai gid dong ho d i xe va gia ca ciia hang hda tai ciia hang lan gia xang dau deu khong re chiit nao. Rdi m p t ngay, ngudi dua t h u hang tuan dem den cho ban cu6n Wish Book 1897 ciia Sears - day 786 trang, trong do co day d u mpi mat hang vdi gia ca phai chang khong the t i n dupe. Wish Book 1897 la m p t cuon sach tuyet vdi. Tham chi ngay nay, trong thdi dai ciia Amazon, van khd co the tap hpp dupe m p t so lupng mat hang phong phii den n h u vay. Cuon danh muc goi gpn trong kich cd ciia m p t cuon danh ba dien thoai nhung cd den 200 mat hang va chiing loai, tat ca dupe i n bang chU nho k e m theo 6.000 anh m i n h hoa. Don cii m u d i trang dau tien ciia cuon danh muc nay gom cd: 67 loai che, 38 loai ca phe, va 29 loai cacao. Tiep den la khoang vai t r a m loai gia v i va p h u gia khac nhau, vai t r a m loai hoa qua k h d va hoa qua dong hop, k e m theo m p t vai loai do an san cd d sieu t h i . Trang 11 cd den h o n 60 loai xa phong. Va 770 trang tiep theo 86

Luge str cai duoi dai la m p i loai hang hoa khac tu" thuoc uong den sung ong (co ca sung luc d quay vcri gia 68 xu), trang phuc, xe ngua va ca chiec dan vidldng gia 2 ddla My. Do la m p t cuon danh muc gay sung sd cho cac gia dinh nong dan. Vol thong diep nang ky n i mpt b u t thu, kha nang lua chpn cac san p h a m hang hoa da dang da tang len gap ngan lan so v o l so hang hoa dien h i n h cua m p t ciia hang tap hoa. H o n the, cuon catalog con dua ra mUc gia thap hern khoang 50%, ke ca chi p h i van chuyen. Cong ty ciia Sears da dua thong t i n den cac khach hang tiem nang bang mpt trong nhiing h i n h thUc "tiep t h i lan truyen" d o n gian nhat. Nam 1905, cong ty da gui t h u t o i cac khach hang quen d Iowa, de nghi hp phan phat 24 cuon catalog t o i hang x d m va ban be ciia hp. Nhiing khach hang nay gui cho Cong ty ciia Sears ten nhiing ngudi nhan cuon catalog. Ve phan minh, k h i nhiing ngudi khach m d i gui d o n dat hang den cong ty, t h i cac khach hang ban dau se nhgui dupe qua cho nhung dong gdp ciia hp: m p t cai Id sudi, xe dap hoac may khau. Ciing n h u vay, nhiing k y thuat chuoi cung ma Sears ap dung de dat dupe thanh cong k y di?u khong he xa la trong thdi k y h i f n nay: su ket hpp gitia hang hda cd trong kho ciia ciia hang, m p t he thong "ciia hang ao" ciia cac nha cung Ung va n h i i n g n g u d i van chuyen hang hda true tiep t i i nha may san xuat. Sears t h a m chi dupe coi la m p t dai l y dat hang theo yeu cau cho cac nha san xuat xe ngua. 87

CAI DUOI DAI Trong nhung nha kho chiia hang ciing co nhirng phat m i n h gay siing sot. De khac phuc trnh trang kem hieu qua ciia viec dua hang, cac nha quan ly ciia Sears da lap ra m p t he thong cho phep m o i don dat hang, k h i den cong ty, se dupe phan dinh ngay khoang thdi gian giao hang cu the. (Cac) mat hang dupe yeu cau phai dupe dat tai thiing dung tUOng ling trong phong tong hpp mua ban vao diing thdi gian da dinh. De dap ling diing thdi han, hang hda theo don dat hang dupe chuyen n i kho hang khong id den phong dong goi bang mpt he thong chuong bao va dudng trupt kha phiic tap. He thong phan phoi hang theo lich trinh nay da dem lai hieu qua cho viec x i i ly cac don dat hang qua bUu dien, cho phep co sd Chicago giai quyet dupe khoi lupng hang hda Icinh doanh l d n gap m u d i lan so vdi b i n h thudng. Chi trong m p t thdi gian ngan, he thong nay dUdc biet den n h u "ky quan thU bay" ciia gidi kinh doanh. Co ngudi ndi Herry Ford da den tham x i nghiep Chicago de t i m hieu ve k y thuat day chuyen day hieu qua nay. Nhung t r d treu la n i t cue chinh day chuyen ciia Ford da bupc Cong t y Sears phai tien them budc nUa de thich Ung v d i sU phong p h u hang hda, lap dai cvta hang bach hoa (superstore).

V d i sU hoan thien ciia h?

thong dudng sa hien dai, chat lupng tot, dan chiing co d u tien m u a otd, cac khach hang ndng thdn ciia Sears da khong gidi han viec m u a sam ciia nrinh qua cac catalog. Ciing luc do, qua t r i n h do t h i hoa rpng ldn ciia

Luoc su cai duoi dai My da bat dau, va nhieu ngudi von la khach hang ciia Sears da r o i nong t h d n ra l a m viec cho cac nha may. Nam 1900, dan so d nong thon van con ldn h o n thanh thi. Nhung den n a m 1920, con so nay da dao ngupc. Cac ciia hang trong thanh pho thich tich t r t i hang theo danh muc hang hoa. Nam 1925, Cong ty Sears m d m o t a i a hang d ngay k h u vuc x i nghiep ban hang theo d o n dat hang qua b u u dien tai Chicago. Su t h i i nghiem nay ngay lap tile gat hai thanh cong. Trudc k h i het nam, Sears da m d them bay a i a hang ban le trong do cd b o n a i a hang d k h u x i nghiep. Den cuoi nam

1927, cong t y nay da cd 27 ciia hang b a n le.

Khach hang dupe tan hudng su phong phii ve chiing loai hang hda v d i gia re, con hieu qua he thong cung Ung ciia Sears n i sU phat trien k i n h doanh theo d o n dat hang da cho phep cong t y dUa ra cho khach hang n h i l u mat hang lUa chon chUa tung cd trong chuoi ciia hang ban le a i a m i n h (gdp phan tao nen tang cho su h i n h thanh mo M n h Wal-Mart sau nay). Nude My da b i cuon vao vong lua chpn. Cac dai bach hda cung cap mpt khdi lupng hang hda ldn, phong phu, vol mUc gia phai chang. Cac ciia hang da gop phan cd v u cho niem t i n vao nen k i n h te co q u i mo ldn, m p t khai n i ? m (ciia hang l d n h e n se hieu qua hPn) ma de hieu no khong can gi khac ngoai viec so sanh bang gia hang hda ciia t i e m tap hda cd truyen v o l cac dai ciia hang. Vay cac ciia hang nay da tien xa den mUc nao?

CAl DUOI DAI

N U O I DUONG PHAN

DUOI

Thuc pham la linh vu"c cai each tiep theo. Sieu thi dau tien la ciia hang King Kullen dupe khai truong ngay 4 thang 8 nam 1930 tai Queens, New York, trong thdi k y t o i te ciia cuoc Dai Suy thoai. So v o l cac ciia hang gia re ngay nay, ciia hang King Kullen chi ban hon 1000 san pham, nhung da dupe coi la chat xuc tac cho mot thoi dai moi cua cong viec kinh doanh ban le thuc pham. Giong n h u Sears, cong ty King Kullen cung cap nhieu loai hang hoa hon, v o l gia thap hdn va tat ca dยงu co trong ciing mot ciia hang, tao dieu kien cho khach hang true tiep lua chon san pham n i cac gia hang. Ciing v o l dich v u t u chon va sU da dang hang hoa, nhu cau ve d i lai va tich trtf thuc pham da dan den trao l u u hang tuan d i mua sam so lupng loin d cac ciia hang bach hoa, ngupc han v d i thdi quen d i cho hang ngay ciia thdi ky trudc. Chia khoa thanh cong dau tien ciia sieu t h i la su ra ddi ciia xe chd hang trong sieu thi (duoc s i i dung lan dau nam 1937), xe oto, n d i do xe mien phi, t i i lanh gia dinh va thiing lanh d sieu t h i . Trong cuon lich sii chinh thUc ve nganh thuc pham, Vien Tiep t h i Thuc pham da m d ta tac dong ciia hien tupng nay n h u sau: Sieu thi da gop phan hinh thanh tang ldp trung luu trong xa hpi. Gia hang hoa thap da khien cac gia dinh cd dieu kien md hau bao chi cho viec mua oto, nha d, 90

Luoc sCr cai duoi dai chi cho giao due va cac nhu cau tien nghi khac trong cuoc song. Khi so lupng cac sieu thi tang len nhanh chong trong thap nien 50 va 60, sieu thi da dong vai tro quan trong trong viec tao ra tang ldp trung lifu d My. Trong le ky niem bac ciia sieu thi, Tong thong Kennedy da nhan xet rang cac ky thuat tiep thi rpng rai v6i chi p h i thap "...da gop phan tao ra dieu kien song tot hon va co dong gop quan trong doi vdi su phat trien ciia nen kinh te nude ta". Trong thdi ky Chien tranh Lanh, t i i 1958 den 1988, khoang 50 nghin ngudi Lien X6 da den nude My. Trong cac chuyen di nay, phan ldn ho da ghe tham cac sieu thi ciia M y Sieu thi chiing minh nen kinh te thi trudng t u do da cho thay thuc pham phong phii vdi gia phai chang dupe pho bien nhu the nao va trd thanh bang chiing ve su hieu qua cua chii nghia t u ban Trong cuon tu truyen cua minh, Boris Yeltsin da noi ve chuyen tham ciia ong tori mpt sieu thi d Houston nam 1989: "Khi toi nhin thay cac gia de hang hoa tran ngap hang tram, hang ngan do hop, thiing giay va hang hoa cac loai, lan dau tien toi cam thay thuc su buon va that vpng cho ngudi dan Lien X6. Mpt dat nude tiem nang giau co nhu nude chiing toi da trd thanh mpt nude ngheo kho den nhu vay! That buon k h i nghi ve dieu do". Mpt ciia hang bach hda d gdc pho nhiing nam 1920 chi cd khoang 700 mat hang, da so ban vol khoi lupng ldn va cac khach hang phai den nhieu ciia hang de mua thit, do nudng, cac san p h a m b o sUa va cac loai hang hda khac. Nay, tat ca cac mat hang do deu cd trong cung m p t sieu t h i . H o n nUa, so lupng chiing loai san 91

CAI DUOI DAI pham trong sieu thi ngay cang tang: 6000 loai vao nam 1960, 14 nghin loai nam 1980 va ngay nay sieu thi co hon 30 nghin loai hang hoa.

KHACH HANG QUA DIEN THOAI SU phat trien quan trpng tiep theo dien ra tai chinh m o i gia dinh, vdi sU ra ddi ciia 800 so dien thoai mien phi. Bat dau vdi su ky vong vUa phai, nam 1967, Cong ty AT&T tung ra mpt san pham m d i co ten goi "WAT noi bang (dich v u dien thoai viing rpng)", ciing dupe biet den vdi ten gpi "Cuoc gpi t u dong", chii yeu vdi muc dich giai quyet su thieu hut nhan vien true tong dai dien thoai. Nhirng ngudi true tong dai dang b i qua tai bdi sd lupng cuoc gpi ngudi nhan tra tien dang dupe gidi kinh doanh Ua chuong sU dung. Cong ty AT&T cho rang dich v u m d i ciia hang se giup giai quyet van de t h i e u nhan luc ciia nganh b u u c h i n h nhung c i i n g khong co ky vpng ldn. Cong ty AT&T chua bao gid ngd rang den nam 1992, chi trong 25 nam sau, 40% cuoc gpi sU dung he thong dudng dai ciia AT&T la cac cupc gpi mien phi. Cupc gpi mien p h i da cho phep viÂŁc mua sam theo catalog phat trien t r d lai. Thdi dai t u dong hda hien dai da gdp phan lam cho dan chung co dieu kien chuyen tU thanh pho ve song d viing ngoai 6, cho d u cac ciia hang dia phuong van con han che ve chiing loai hang hda. Mpt the he dan cu giau cd, thuc dung d vung ngoai

Luge sii cai duoi dai 6 san sang chi tien mua sam nhieu hdn, va den gitfa thap nien 70, the t i n dung giup ho mua sam theo n h u cau. 800 s6 dien thoai ban dau da t r d thanh nhan to xuc tac can thiet cho su bung no h i n h thUc mua sam gia (urih. Nguoc lai v o l thoi dai t h i n h hanh cac ciia hang bach hoa tong hop khong lo co m o i thU n h u ciia Sears, lan song mua theo catalog sau nay tap trung nhieu vao cac san pham

ngach hon. Cong nghe i n mau da tao

dieu kien cho cac nha ban le i n ra hang t r a m ngan hay tham chi hang trieu cuon catalog tren chat lieu t6t de t r i n h bay h i n h anh gian hang phong phti cua ho va gui t o i cac dia chi h o m t h u d i n h san. Ty le khach hang hoi am chi can 1% t h i ciia hang cung da co lai. Cac san pham

ngach lai m p t lan nUa t i m ra hudng

tiep can t o i nhirng khach hang thuoc dong chii dao. Cac do diing the thao, quan ao co thuong hieu, m l u npi that, do lot, do dac ngoai trdi, cac vat dung theo sd thich - m o i thang lai dem den cho khach hang mot danh sach het ke chi tiet san pham ban le chuyen dung. Vol nhirng t h i i can thiet trong tay n h u the t i n dung, may dien thoai, khach hang se cd ngay mat hang m i n h can chi trong m p t hoac hai tuan. So v d i an tuong ma su da dang ciia hang hda ban qua b u u dien dem lai, tien ich ciia may t i n h ca nhan nhanh chong lan at hien tupng m u a hang qua b u u dien.

CAl DUOI DAl CATALOG CUOI CUNG SU noi len ciia thuong mai dien tii tren Web tii dau nhiing n a m 90 da bat dau bang viec xay dung cac catalog tren Web v d i chiing loai hang hda da dang, t h a m chi viec dat mua hang t r d nen thuan tien hon, mUc gia thap hon va phuc v u duoc nhieu cong chiing hon. Internet da tao ra mpt hinh thUc gui kho hang mdi cho tat ca m o i ngudi - ma khong can i n an va gui catalog den cho khach hang. Rd rang catalog da phat huy tac dung khap m o i noi. Tat nhien, mpt so catalog hap dan hon nhirng cai khac. Nhung do la catalog nao? Jeff Bezos da t u dat cho m i n h cau h o i do k h i ong lam viec tai Quy dau t u D. E. Shaw d New York. Do la n a m 1994, thdi diem Internet bat dau khdi sac, tang trudng d mUc 2300%/nam chi n i mpt he thong co sd nho be. La mpt "ky su" tai nang (ky su lap t r i n h toan), sep ciia Bezos yeu cau ong t i m nhirng co hpi kinh doanh Internet. Hon m u d i n a m sau, trong mpt phat bieu d Thung lung Silicon, Bezos da noi ve thdi khac do: Toi den cho Hiep hpi thuong nhan (Direct Marketers Association) va lay mot danh sach tat ca san pham dang dupe ban n i xa. Quan ao la thU hang ban tii xa chay nhat. ThU hai la thuc pham cao cap. DUng cuoi danh sach la sach, va danh muc sach ton tai la vi co nhung to' chUc n h u Cau lac bp sach ciia thang va bdi vi khong co mpt danh muc i n tren giay nao de cap den sach. 94

Luge sCr cai duoi dai Nhung nam dau thap nien 90 la thdi ky phat trien bung no' ciia nganh sach d My. Cong ty sach Crown Books da chuyen hudng k i n h doanh vol mot chuoi ciia hang ban ha gia, khuay dong ede ky luc ban sach va khdi dau lan song ha gia tuong t u tren t h i trudng. Tiep theo, cong ty Barnes&Noble va Borders tien them mot budc bang each khai truong nhiing sieu t h i sach khd'ng lo. DUOc xay dung tren nen nhung rap chieu p h i m hay san bowling cu, nhung sieu t h i sach nay da cd den 100 nghin dau sach, gap nam lan so v o l mUc trung b i n h ciia cac ciia hang sach dia phUdng. Con so nay the hien sU gia tang chiing loai va kha nang Ufa chpn, khdi dau cho mot thdi dai sach bao phong p h u phuc v u ban doc. Sach t r d nen re h o n va nhieu h o n - con ngudi con can gi h o n the nUa? Lai mot lan nUa, Bezos tu dat ra chinh cau hoi do: Toi dang tim hieu van de do. Neu ban la ngudi sU dung Web vao nam 1994, vdi he trinh duyet va cong nghe so dang hien cd luc do, thi viec su" dung do thuc su rat khd khan. Cong trinh duyet Web thudng xuyen bi tac, mpi thU van hanh khong suon se va dung lupng dudng truyen dU lieu rat nhd, ke ca k h i ban cd chiec md-dem hien dai nhat thdi bay gid. Toi n i t ra ket luan rang vol cong nghe luc do, neu ban co the lam mot viec gi ma khong can phai sU dung Web, t h i ban cU the ma lam. Ban khong muon mua quan ao tren Web, ca khi do la bo suu tap tot nhat, vi quan ao ban cd the mua qua catalog va qua cac ciia

CAI BUOI DAI hang mot each hieu qua. Tieu chuan cua t o i la: hay chpn mpt mat hang ma khach hang chi co the mua qua trang Web. Thuc te cho thay viec lua chpn rat quan trong trong viec thuc day khach hang sii dung catalog. No ciing cho thay ban khong the co m o t danh muc sach do so tren giay; v i dieu do hoan toan p h i thuc te. Hang nam co hon 100 nghin cuon sach m o i dupe xuat ban, va ngay ca mpt sieu t h i sach l d n ciing khong the co het ngan day cuon sach. Sieu t h i sach l d n nhat chi cd 175 nghin dau sach va duy nhat co ba cUa hang du ldn den n h u vay. TU do nay sinh ra mpt y tudng: hay de trang web Amazon.com t r d thanh n o i dau tien ban co the de dang t i m va mua mpt trieu loai sach khac nhau. Dieu ma v i k y su nay dang hudng t d i la mpt co hpi trong nganh sach dang phat dat nay. Mac d u co rat nhieu nha xuat ban, song hau het viec phan phoi sach chi do hai cong ty ban buon dam nhiem, hp cd he thong ciia hang dat d v i t r i chien lupc tren toan quoc de dap Ung n h u cau dpc gia. Dieu nay gpi ra m p t co hpi tuyet v d i cho mpt nha ban le tren mang. Mac dti 175 nghin dau sach xem ra cd ve nhieu, nhung Bezos biet rang d u do la so sach l d n nhat co trong m p t ciia hang t h i ciing chi la m p t phan nho so sach cd tren t h i trudng. Va viec t i m ten sach va dpc torn tat sach r d rang se tao dieu kien cho khach hang t i m dupe cai hp thuc sU muon. 96

Luge sCr cai duoi dai Khi do, co khoang 1,5 trieu sach bang tieng A n h dUOc i n - cac ciia hang sach chi co khoang 10% so sach nay. Ngay nay, kho dU Ueu tren mang co the chUa mot danh sach sach i n len den 5,6 trieu cuon. Bezos ciing biet rang ngay cang co nhieu danh muc sach ciia cac nha xuat ban duoc dua len mang, gidi thieu cac sach hoc thuat, thuong mai, sach t u xuat ban va nhieu loai khac. Khong cd l y do gi ma Amazon.com khong gidi thieu tat ca loai sach nay. Dieu m a Internet da l a m la loai bd hau h i t cac rao can vat ly de tao ra su hfa chon vd tan. Cac ciia hang kien cd cd l d n cd quy m d hoanh trang van phai giai quyet van de chi p h i cho cac gia hang, tudng bao, nhan vien, dia diem, gid m d ciia va van de thdi tiet. Nhd vao kich thudc l d n h o n va hoat dong hieu qua hon cac nha sach dpc lap, cac sieu t h i sach cd the cung cap mpt su lUa chon dau sach l d n hon. Dau vay, ngay ca h i n h thUc k i n h doanh nay ciing cd gidi han nhat dinh, thua xa gidi han ciia nguon cung cap cac dau sach san cd. Ngay nay, vi?c m u a sam t r e n m a n g da v u p t xa phuong thUc mua sam theo catalog va hien dang chiem khoang 5% doanh so ban le ciia My. Viec mua sam tren mang van dang tiep tuc phat trien v d i toe dp cao, dat den 25%/nam, va dang d i dung hudng d u doan ban dau ciia Bezos rang viec ban le tren mang cuoi ciing se dat mUc 15% tong doanh so ban le hang hda, chiem h d n 1/10 trong tong so 12 t i ddla ciia nen k i n h te My. Mpt trong nhirng kho hang l d n nhat do la cac trang web tren mang ciia cac dai gia sach. Trang Bn.com la 97

CAI DUOI DAI trang Web cua thuong hieu Barnes&Noble gidi thieu bp suu tap sach tuong t u n h u Amazon. The giam gia co hieu luc v d i ca hai kenh cung Ung sach va ban co the yeu cau dich v u giao sach trong ngay d k h u vuc quanh Manhattan n o i B&N cd mpt so sieu t h i sach. Neu ciia hang khong co mot cuon sach nao do, nhan vien ban hang van cd the dap Ung yeu cau ciia khach hang bang each dat mua sach tren mang cho khach. Tuong t u nhu hoat dong tren mang ciia Wal-Mart, Best Buy va vo so nha ban le khac: Cac gia de hang hda vd tan tren trang Web ban le cho phep cac nha ban le dem lai cho khach hang nhieu chiing loai hang hda va sU thuan tien, ciing co long trung thanh ciia cac khach quen vol thuong hieu va m d rpng pham v i ra nhung khach hang mdi, nhung ngudi co the d gan hoac xa mpt ciia hang co dinh.

CAl DUOI

DAI 6 KHAP N O I

TU nhUng trang web ban le nhu eBay cho den trao luu dua viec ban le truyen thong len mang, nhurig Uu the ve nhung gia de hang hoa vo tan, thong t i n phong p h i i va nhiing h i n h thUc lua chpn thong m i n h se giup ban t i m dupe thU m i n h can. Day la y tudng ban dau ciia Bezos va thuc te da chiing to m p i viec dien ra diing n h u ong nghi. Do do, bay gid ban cd the thay cac thi trudng ciia Duoi dai d khap ndi. Giong n h u Google dang t i m dudng tan dung Duoi dai trong quang cao, Hang Microsoft ciing dang m d rpng

Luge sii cai duoi dai Phan duoi cua cac games video thanh nhung games nho va re tien ma ban co the tai xuong may tinh n i he thong Xbox Live cua hang. Cac d u an phan mem ma nguon m d n h u Linux va Firefox ciing la nhung nhan to Duoi dai ciia tai nang lap trinh, con dau t u ra nude ngoai lai tan dung l o i the ve lao dong ciia Duoi dai. Trong k h i do, Internet ciing gop phan phat trien Cai duoi ddi nhat ciia sach bao khieu dam cho m p i t h i hieu va ca sU lap d i . Ngoai ra, cung cd nhieu bang chiing thuyet phuc hon ve Cai duoi ddi n h u su phat trien ciia cac hang bia nho goi la "Cai duoi ddi ve bia", sU phat trien ciia cac loai ao phong, giay dep va quan ao khac lam theo yeu cau ciia khach hang goi la "Cai duoi ddi ve thdi trang", va sU phat trien ciia cac trudng dai hpc tren mang gpi la "Cai duoi ddi ve giao due". Cuoi ciing, de m i n h chung cho luan diem ma hoc thuyet nay da ap dung rpng rai, hay suy ngam Idi nhan xet ve "Cai duoi ddi ve an n i n h quoc gia" ciia John Robb, mpt nha phan tich quan sU dam trach trang web Global Guerrillas [Du kich toan cau]: Theo truyen thong, chien tranh (SU thay dd'i xa hpi bang bao ltfc) da b i han che trong cac quoc gia dan toe, trU mpt so trudng hpp ca biet. Cac quoc gia thudng cd sU doc quyen kiem soat bao luc. Ket qua dat dupe la sU phan chia bao luc b i han che va n i t ngan. Tinh trang dpc quyen nay dang xuong doc vi chiu tac dong ciia ba x u hudng:

CAI DUOI DAI •

Su pho bien hoa cac cong cu chien tranh. Nhung ke bao luc nhdnh (vi du: cac bang dang) hien nay co kha nang gay chien nhd mat trai aia toan cau hoa. Chi can vai ngudi, mot vai dao cat va mot cai may bay la co the lam nen mot vu khung bo (do la nhung vat dung don gian ket hop vdi don bay t u co sd ha tang kinh te thudng gap).

•

Tinh trang nguy niem lan rpng do cac nha san suit vu khi nhdnh gay ra. Viec nay da bien cac cupc t i n cong chi phi thap thanh nhung su kien kinh te - xa hpi noi bat.

•

Su gia tang hinh thuc truyen ba. Cac nhom mdi lap co the de dang tim kiem/dao tao hpi vien mdi, truyen tai thong diep aia hp den mpt lupng thinh gia ldn va tim kiem/phoi hpp hanh dong vdi cac nhom (dong minh) khac.

Ket qua la Cdi duoi ddi da phat trien. Nhung ke bao luc m d i da n d rd. Nhu cau doi v d i cac n h o m bao luc nhanh nay cung tang nhanh chong. Cac khai niem ldn (nhu cupc dau tranh giUa H o i giao va My), mac du khong dupe cac nha nude chap thuan, da tiep them sUc manh cho cac to' chUc bao luc nhanh n h u al Qaeda va nhUng phien ban a i a nd.

100

BA NGUON

LUC

CUA CAI DUOI D A I SAN XUAT, DUA RA THI TRUONG VA GIUP KHACH HANG TIM THAY HANG HOA CUA BAN

Ly thuyet Cai duoi ddi cd the torn tat lai n h u sau: K i n h te va van hoa cua chung ta dang ngay cang chuyen n i tap trung vao m p t so nho cac san pham hit (cac t h i trudng va dong san p h a m chinh) 6" phan dau a i a do t h i dudng cau, sang m p t so l d n cac san pham thU yeu (ngach) d phan duoi. Trong thdi dai khong b i bd bupc b d i cac gia hang hda va nhung diem yeu khac a i a qua t r i n h phan phoi, xet ve mat k i n h te, cac loai hang hda va dich v u danh cho doi tuong thU yeu cung co the hap dan chang k e m g i dong san p h a m chinh. NhUng n h u vay la chua d u . N h u cau tieu diing phai di theo nguon cung m d i nay. Neu khong, Phan

duoi

se nhd dan. V i Phan duoi khong chi dupe t i n h bang

101

CAI DUOI DAI chiing loai san co ma t i n h ca so ngudi quan tam den cac chiing loai do, Wnh thai thuc su ciia dudng cau chi xuiit hien k h i ngudi tieu diing cd duoc su lua chon vd han. Su ket hop viec ban hang, sii dung, hoac hinh thai tham gia khac ciia tat ca m o i ngudi lien quan den cac sam p h a m nhdnh

m d i xuat hien, gdp phan bien

su gia tang kha nang lua chon vd tan manh mot nguon lUc lcinh te va van hda. Cdi duoi ddi bat dau vdi mot trieu san pham ngach, nhung chang cd nghia ly gi cho den k h i cac san pham ngach t r d nen pho bien va nhieu ngudi can den chiing. T o m lai, tat ca duoc chia thanh sau dac diem ciia thdi dai D u o i dai: 1. Tren hau het cac thi trudng, cd nhieu san pham ngach hon cac loai san pham hit. Ty le nay ngay cang cd x u hudng tang len k h i cong cu san xuat t r d nen re h o n va pho bien hon. 2. Cac chi p h i tao ra san pham

ngach then nay dang

giam dang ke. V d i su ket hop cac ngudn luc nhu h i n h thUc phan p h d i k y thuat so, cac cong nghe t i m kiem hiing manh, va su pho bien ciia kha nang tiep can truyen thong bang thong rpng, cac loai thi trudng tren mang dang tai lap hinh thai kinh te ban le. V i vay, tren nhieu t h i trudng, cd the cd nhieu chiing loai san p h a m v o l k h d i luong ldn. 3. Tuy nhien, b a n than su da dang ciia hang hoa khong t u thay ddi duoc dudng cau. Ngudi tieu diing p h a i dupe h u d n g dan de t i m ra cac san 102

pham

Ba ngu6n luc cua cai duoi dai ngach p h u hop v d i n h u cau va l o i ich cu the ciia ho. Mot loat cong cu va bien phap k y thuat - n i khuyen nghi den xep hang - dang tro giup cho nhu cau tim hieu san pham ngach ciia ngudi tieu diing. Nhiing "bo he " nay co the hudng dudng cau chay 1

doc theo Phan

duoi.

4. Mpt k h i chiing loai hang cang nhieu len va cd cac bo loc, phan loai chiing, t h i dudng cau cang tien gan den diem tiem can true hoanh. Van cd cac loai san p h a m hit va loai san pham

ngach nhung su

Ua chuong san p h a m cao cap (hit) giam tuong doi va cac loai san pham

ngach tang tuong doi.

5. Tat ca cac loai san pham

ngach deu tang len. Mac

du khong m p t loai san pham

ngach nao dupe ban

vdi so lupng ldn, nhung k h i gdp nhieu loai san pham

ngach v o l nhau se tao ra m p t t h i trudng d i i

l d n de canh tranh v d i cac loai san p h a m hit. 6. Mpt k h i tat ca cac loai hang hda dupe tung ra t h i trudng, h i n h dang thuc ciia dudng cau se hien t h i , khong b i bien dang b d l nhiing nut cd' chai ciia viec phan p h o i , s u k h a n n i e m thong t i n va han che khong gian lua chpn ciia cac gia hang. Hem nUa, h i n h dang ciia dudng cau chiu su tac dpng ciia s i n p h a m hit i t hem mUc chung ta tudng. Thay v i vay, h i n h dang ciia dudng cau da dang n h u ban than s u phan bo dan cu. Tieng Anh la filter, se dupe de cap cu the hon cr phan sau ciia cuon sach. 103

CAl DUOI DAl Diem mau chot: Cai duoi dai thifc ra chinh la van hoa khong b i sang loc b d i nguyen l y cua k i n h t l hoc khan hiem.

PHAN DUOI SE KEO DAI DEN DAU Cac hien tuong duoc neu d tren se khong xay neu khong co mpt cu huych k i n h te ldn: chi p h i tiep can san pham ngach giam xuong. Dieu gi khien cac chi phi nay giam? Mac d u cau tra 161 doi vol cac mat hang khac nhau rat da dang, nhutig ngudi ta van diing ba nguon lUc chinh sau day de giai thich van de nay.

Nguon luc thU nhat la sit pho bien hoa cong cu san xuat. Vi du dien hinh la may tinh ca nhan, cong cu giup ngudi sir dung tiep can de dang m o i thU, tU bao chi, ca nhac den p h i m anh. SUc manh ciia may t i n h da lam cho so luong "nha san xuat" - do la cac ca nhan co the l a m duoc nhUng viec ma vai nam trudc day chi co 104

Ba ngudn luc cua cai duoi dai cac chuyen gia l a m duc/c - tang len hang nghin lan. Ngay nay co den hang trieu ngudi co kha nang lam ra mot doan p h i m ngan hay m o t dia nhac, hoac cong bo nhirng quan d i e m ciia m i n h cho ca the gidi biet - that dang ngac nhien, rat nhieu ngudi da lam duoc dieu nay. Tai nang khong phai d dau ciing co, song dang lan rdng: tao cho con ngudi kha nang d u de sang tao va chac chan nhan tai se xuat hien. Ket qua la so lUdng san p h a m duoc pho' cap rdng rai dang tang nhanh h o n bao gid het. Dieu nay gdp phan keo dai phan

duoi sang ben phai, l a m tang su

pho' bien ciia nhieu loai hang hda san cd. V i du, trong linh vuc am nhac, so luong dia nhac m d i phat hanh tang v d i toe do p h i thudng, den 36% trong n a m 2005, dat mUc 60 nghin bai hat (so v o l mUc 44 nghin bai dUOc phat hanh trong n a m 2004), phan l d n la do cac nghe si ngay nay cd the de dang t h u thanh va phat hanh am nhac ciia chinh ho. Dong thdi, cac ban nhac dang tai h o n 300 nghin dia nhac mien p h i len trang web MySpace, gdp phan keo dai h o n nUa phan |H Lire lirong 2: Pho bien h6a cac cong cu phan phoi

Ket qua: Nhie*u khach hang diroc tie'p c3n cac san phim ngach han lam day them Cai duoi.

105

duoi.

CAI BUOI DAl Nguon luc t h i i hai la su cdt giam chi phi mua sdm do viec pho bien hoa qua trinh phan phoi. Thuc te cho thay bat k y ai ciing co the l a m duoc tac pham phim hoac dia nhac, nhung san pham do chi co gia t r i neu nguoi khac co the thudng thiic chiing. May tinh tao dieu kien rte bat ky ai ciing co the t r d thanh nha san xuat hoac nha phat hanh, nhung chinh Internet m d i bien tat ca m o i ngudi thanh nha phan phoi. Dieu t h i i v l nhat la thuyet k i n h te bits vs. atom , 1

la su khac nhau giUa chi p h i chi vai x u de chuyen tai noi dung tren mang va chi p h i nhieu dola de lam cong viec do v o l xe tai, nha kho va gia de hang. Ngay ca doi vdi hang hda vat the, Internet ciing gop phan giam dang ke gia thanh chuyen chiing den tay ngudi tieu diing. Qua nhieu thap nien va tieu ton hang t i dola, Wal-Mart da thiet lap m o t chu6i he thong cung Ung hoan hao nhat, cung cap n h i l u loai hang hda v d i gia phai chang t d i hang chuc trieu khach hang tren khap the gidi. Ngay nay, ai ciing co the t i m thay m o i thU tren t h i trudng chi v d i mot kho hang tren mang eBay. Internet da gdp phan l a m cho hang hda t r d nen re hon va den duoc vol nhieu ngudi hon, do do day nhanh kha nang thanh toan bang tien mat tren t h i trudng d phan duoi. Ngupc lai, dieu do cung gop phan thuc day tieu diing, t i i do nang cao dudng cau va tang dien tich viing dudi dudng cong nay. Nguon luc thU ba do la kit noi cung vd cau, dem 1

Cong nghe so so vol cong nghe nguyen ni. 106

Ba nguon luc cua cai duoi dai Ngudn lire 3: Ket noi cung va cau

den cho ngudi tieu dung nhUng loai hang hda m d i va s i n cd, gdp phan keo phan duoi dudng cau. Dieu nay cd the duoc bieu hien dudl cac h i n h thUc t i m kiem san p h a m t U cong cu t i m k i e m "su uyen bac ciia quan chiing" ciia Google hay "nhirng goi y" ciia iTune, ciing vol vd so h i n h thUc truyen ba khac, tU cac trang blog den y kien danh gia ciia khach hang. Tac ddng ciia cac hinh thUc nay d o i v o l khach hang la gdp phan l a m giam "chi p h i t i m kiem" de t i m ra san pham

ngach.

Trong k i n h te hpc, chi p h i t i m kiem la nhUng gi t h u dupe trong qua t r i n h t i m cai m i n h can. Mpt so chi p h i khong t i n h dupe bang tien, v l d u n h u viec mat thdi gian t i m kiem, su phien nhieu, d j n h hudng sai hoac nham lan. Mpt so chi p h i khac co the t i n h dupe bang tien, n h u m u a sai mat hang hoac tra gia qua cao cho loai hang hda nao do chi v i k h o n g the t i m ra cai nao re hdn. Bat cU dieu gi giup ban de dang t i m thay san p h a m ban can v o l gia phai chang deu gdp phan l a m giam chi p h i t i m k i e m ciia ban. 107

CAI DUOI DAI Chung t o i se de cap den van de nay d phan sau ciia cuon sach, nhung nhiing ngudi tieu dung thudng la ngudi hudng dan hUu i c h nhat v i dong co ciia ho la d i n h h u d n g t o i nhat d o i v d i chiing ta. N e t f l i x va Google n a m bat m o i quan t a m ciia ngudi tieu diing bang each nghien cUu nhUng gi ma hang trieu ngudi tieu dung lam, dong t h d i bien nd thanh nhiing ket qua t i m k i e m va gpi y tuong Ung. Ngudi tieu dung ciing t r d thanh ngudi chi dudng dpc lap k h i hp dua ra nhan xet ciia n g u d i s i i dung hay neu y kien tren blog ve nhiing thU ho thich va khong thich. Ngay nay, k h i m u o n t i m m o t cai gi do m d i me, ban de dang tim dupe nhirng thong t i n cot yeu, va co the t i m thay cai m i n h m u o n nhanh h o n bao gid het. TU do khuyen k h i c h ban t i m hieu nhieu hon, vupt ra khoi pham v i ban da biet, gdp phan keo dai phan duoi do t h i dudng cau t d i cac san pham

ngach.

Ngoai ra, k h i khach hang trao dd'i y kien v d i nhau, hp cung phat hien ra t h i hieu ciia hp da dang hon nhiing gi quang cao san p h a m dem lai. Moi quan tam ciia hp chia nhd h o n theo nhiing n h o m sd thich ngay cang nhd, d i sau hon vao doi tupng san pham hp chpn. Day la m p t hien tupng thudng xay ra k h i nhieu ngudi cd cung quan diem tap hpp lai v d i nhau. D u thuc hay ao, dupe khuyen khich n h d viec ciing hen ket, hp ciing nhau k h a m pha nhimg dieu chua biet, t i m hieu xa hPn nhiing l o i m o n da cd. Viec k h a i thac tien i c h ciia n h i i n g cong nghe m d i ket n o i ngudi tieu dung lai v d i nhau da gdp phan keo 108

Ba nguon luc cua cai duoi dai dai do t h i dudng cau d i n i cao nhat xuong phia duoi. Noi each khac, Nguon luc t h i i ba dang gop phan l a m tang n h u cau tieu d i i n g san pham

ngach va keo dai

duong do t h i can bien, chuyen trong tam siic hiit sang ben phai. Hay coi n i n g phan ciia ba nguon luc nay la mot nha tap hop nhiing co h o i m d i tren t h i trudng dang noi len ciia Cai duoi dai. Cac cong cu san xuat duoc pho' bien hoa dang gdp phan l a m tang dang ke so luong cac nha san xuat. Nen k i n h te ky thuat so co hieu suat cao dang tao ra nhung t h i trudng m d i . Cuoi ciing, kha nang tan dung sU thong thai ciia hang trieu khach hang de giup con ngudi chon duoc mot san pham phu hop nhat dang lam xuat hien cac h i n h thiic gidi thieu, gai y va cac phuong phap tiep t h i mdi, ve ban chat la nhiing h i n h thiic tao nen t h i hieu m d i . Tat ca duoc the hien trong bang torn tat d bang trang ben:

109

CAI DUOI DAl Ngudn luc Pho bien san xuat

Nha kinh doanh Cac nha san xuat, che tao cong cu san xuat ciia Cai duoi ddi

Vidu May quay hinh thuf t so,

Pho bien viec phan phoi

Cac dich vu tim kiem ciia Cai duoi ddi

Amazon, eBay, iTunes, Netflix

Ket noi cung va cau

Cac bo loc ciia Cai duoi ddi

Google, blog, nhiing 161 gqii y, gioi thieu ciia dich vu Rhapsody va cac danh sach hang ban chay nhat

Cong cu phan mem may tinh bien tap phim video va ca nhac, blog

Ba chuong tiep theo se de cap cu the cac CO hqi kinh doanh m d i .

MOT THE HE CAC N H A SAN XUAT

MCll

DUNG DANH GIA THAP SUC MANH CUA MOTTRLtU NGUOI KHONG CHUVTiN NHUNG CO CHIA KHOA CUA NHA SAN XUAT

Vao b u o i t o i ngay 23 thang hai nam 1987, thiet b i do dac cua dai quan sat t h i e n van d u d i long dat Kamiokande I I d N h a t Ban da p h a t h i e n 11 h a t neutrino trong m p t v u n d keo dai 13 giay. Mac d u 11 hat neutrino khong phai la con sd l d n nhung dai quan sat nay thudng chi phat hien ra 2 hoac 3 neutrino trong mpt gid, va hiem k h i thay tat ca trong cung mpt lan. Nhu vay d day cd cai gi do dac biet. NhUng muon t i m hieu dieu gi thuc sU da xay ra t h i phai chd them vai gid nUa, k h i cd ket qua bao cao a i a nhUng quan sat khac. Cac nha thien van tU lau da dua ra ly thuyet rang khi m p t ngoi sao n d tung, hau het nang lupng dupe

CAI DUOI DAI giai phong dudi dang hat neutrino - la cac hat nho hdn nguyen n i va co khdi luong sieu nhe, bay xuyen qua cac hanh t i n h n h u vien dan xuyen qua t d giay mong. Mot phan ly thuyet nay de cap den giai doan dau tien ciia v u no, bang chiing duy nhat co the quan sat dupe la mpt tran mua cac hat phan tii; sau do phai chd mpt vai gid dong ho de v u n d lai dien ra va xuat hien anh sang co the nhin thay dupe. Ket qua la, cac nha khoa hpc d u doan k h i mpt ngoi sao bien thanh v u nd sao bang (supernova) gan chiing ta, chiing ta co the phat hien ra cac hat neutrino trong khoang 3 gid ddng ho trudc k h i co the rihin thay v u n d qua kinh thien van quang phd. Bien phap k i e m tra su tuong quan giiia cac hat neutrino va anh sang cd the n h i n thay dupe la song song tien hanh quan sat va do khoang each nam anh sang giiia chiing. Nhung van de khd khan ve phan quang hpc ciia viec nay la ban phai n h i n ve phia ben phai ciia bau trdi. Tuy nhien, day khong phai la van de k h d ddi v d i viec quan sat neutrino. Do co cau tao h i n h cau, thiet b i quan sat Kamiokande cd the ghi lai cac hat neutrino r o i xuong trai dat t i i bat ky hudng nao. Nhung de n h i n thay anh sang phat ra t i i v u nd, kinh thien van phai hudng chinh xac vao diem sang va vao diing thdi diem. Do vay, can phai ndi rang, co vo van diem can quan sat n h u the tren bau trdi. Khong the cd d u cac nha thien van chuyen nghiep theo ddi tat ca cac hien tuefng tren t r d i de, neu dupe, cd co hpi ghi lai v u n d n h u tren. Nhung cd den hang 112

Mot the he cac nha san xuat moi nghin nha thien van khong chuyen se rat v u i k h i dupe tit m i n h l a m cong viec nay. Su: dung k i n h thien van vol gia p h a i chang dupe ket n o i v d i may t i n h va k i n h Dobsonia cd dp m d ong k i n h kha rdng (binh thudng khoang 30cm) dupe lap trong lanh thien van dai khong qua 1,5m, cd bp cam bien h i n h anh (CCD - Charged coupled device) rat nhay cd the t h u duoc nhieu anh sang h o n mat ngudi, cac nha thien van khong chuyen hien nay cd the chup anh bau trdi tot hon cac nha thien van t h i k y trudc v d i nhiing lanh thien van to bang ca ngoi nha. Ngudi dau tien n h i n thay v u no sao bang (supernova) nam 1987 la m o t nha quan sat cd t r i n h dp cao hon dan k h o n g chuyen n h u n g chua dat d e n t r i n h dp chuyen nghiep, ten la Ian Shelton, m o t sinh vien cao hpc nghi hpc ghia chiing, l a m bao ve tai dai quan sat d Andes (Chile) de cd co h p i diing chiec lanh thien van 60cm ciia dai quan sat vao khoang t h d i gian trong k h i cac giao su thien van khong sir dung chung. Mpt trong nhiing khoang t h d i gian trong do la bud'i t o i ngay 23 thang hai n a m 1987 lpng gid. Dem do, Shelton quyet dinh s i i dung k i n h thien van de theo ddi v u no' keo dai 3 gid dong ho ciia m p t trong so cac thien ha ciia Dam May Sao Magellan Ldn. K h i su kien xay ra, chinh xac la m p t ngoi sao each chiing ta 168 nghin n a m va d khoang each 168 nghin nam anh sang da bien mat, m p t ngoi sao da n d d ria t i n h van Tarantula. Tuy nhien, tU trai dat va n i quan sat ciia Shelton, v u n d trong giong n h u dang xay ra 113

CAI DUOI DAI ngay trudc mat: mpt quang sang dpt ngpt xuat hien cV mpt gdc cua dam may mac du trudc do khong co dau hieu gi xay ra. Shelton liec n h i n cac anh chup 20 phut trudc k h i hudng ong l a n h ra ngoai khoang khong va dupe tan mat chUng kien su kien nay. Chac chan, do la: v u no' sao bang dau tien con ngudi dupe chung kien tan mat ke tU nam 1604. Moi lien quan ghia phat hien ciia Shelton va dai quan sat Kamiokande II la ca hai ciing nhan dupe dau hieu ve v u no ciing mpt luc. Dai quan sat neutrino phat hien ra v u no vao hoi 7h 35', con Shelton da quan sat thay mpt anh sang trang dau tien xuat hien vao khoang 10 gid GMT - chua day 3 tieng sau v u no neutrino. 6" chung muc nao do, hien tupng nay diing vdi ly thuyet. Tuy nhien, lieu hien tupng nay cd the dupe nhin thay sdm hPn khong, trudc k h i Shelton n h i n thay? May man thay, vao dem do, co hai nha thien van nghiep d u cham chi khac ciing theo doi bau trdi bang k i n h t h i e n v a n k h o n g chuyen n h d h o n . T a i New Zealand, Albert Jones, m p t cuu chien b i n h da rung quan sat thien van h o n 500 nghin lan, da co hudng quan sat tot vao chdm sao Tarantula Nebula vao luc 16h 30' gid GMT nhung n h u m o i k h i ong khong nhin thay gi. Mpt nha quan sat nghiep d u khac, Robert McNaugh, chup anh dupe v u no' vao h o i l O h 30' gid UT d Uc, gdp phan khang d i n h thdi diem v u no' ciia Shelton. N h u vay, anh sang ciia v u no' den trai dat vao khoang tU 9h30' den lOh. Do la dien bien ciia m p t trong nhUng k h a m pha vu 114

Mot the he cac nha san xuat mdi t r u v i dai nhat cua the k y XX. Hpc thuyet chu dao giai thich su van hanh ciia v u t r u da dupe chiing m i n h dua vao nhirng dong gop ciia nhirng ngudi khong chuyen d New Zealand va Uc, m o t nha thien van nghiep d u dang phan dau t r d thanh ngudi chuyen nghiep d Chile va cac giao su vat l y d My va Nhat Ban. K h i cac bao cao khoa hoc cuoi ciing tuyen bo k h a m pha nay ra toan the gidi, tat ca nhiing ngudi nay da ciing sd h u u ban quyen. Trong ban bao cao 2004, Demos, n h o m nghien cUu ciia Anh, m d ta hien tupng nay n h u mpt thoi khac quan trong hudng t d i k y nguyen "Pro-Am" - cac chuyen gia va nha nghiep d u ciing l a m viec chung: "Nghien cuu thien van hoc thudng do cac hpc vien 'nghien cuu khoa hoc ldn' dam nhiem. Nay, thien van hpc co the do cac n h o m cong tac Pro-Am thuc hien. Nhieu nha nghien ciiu nghiep d u tiep nic t u dong l a m viec va nhieu chuyen gia van ngoi i trong cac hpc vien nghien ciiu ciia hp. Nhung mang ludi nghien ciiu toan cau da xuat hien, ket n o i cac chuyen gia va nhirng ngudi khong chuyen cd ciing sd t h i c h lai v d i nhau, ciing t i m hieu cac v i sao chay sang, sao chd'i va cac hanh t i n h nhd". Trong cuon sach Nhin vao bong toi, de cap den rich sii nghien cUu thien van hien dai, tac gia T i m o t h y Ferris, m p t nha thien van nghiep du, nhan xet: "Neu ai do chpn m p t ngay de coi la t h d i diem nganh thien van hpc chuyen d d i tU h i n h thUc l a m viec g o m cac chuyen gia t u m i n h quan sat v u t r u qua k i n h thien van sang h i n h thUc ket n o i mang web toan cau ghia cac 115

CAI DUOI DAI chuyen gia va nhiing ngudi khong chuyen.... t h i ngay do co the la 23 thang 2 nam 1987". Moi ngudi n i t ra ket l u a n rang: "Nganh t h i e n van hoc dang nhanh chong t r d thanh mot nganh khoa hoc chiu su chi phoi ciia phong trao nguon m d Pro-Am rdng ldn, ciing hoat dong ben canh mot so co quan nghien ciiu cd qui mo nhd gom cac chuyen gia thien van va vat ly thien the". Cac cong nghe kha t h i ciia phong trao Pro-Am trong thien van hoc chinh la ong lanh Dobsonia, bo cam bien h i n h anh CCD va su xuat hien ciia Internet v d i vai tro la cong cu chia se thong t i n . Cac cong cu nay da nang cao v i the ciia cac nha thien van nghiep d u va lam tang anh hudng ciia ho d khap noi. H o n hai thap nien qua, thien van hpc da t r d thanh lihh vUc dupe pho' bien hoa nhieu nhat trong nganh khoa hpc, r d rang mpt phan la n h d vai t r d quan trong ciia cac thanh vien khong chuyen. Co quan hang khong v i i t r u My-NASA thudng yeu cau cac nha thien van nghiep d u nay theo ddi cac vi sao nhd nhat chnh cd the hudng tdi Trai dat, mpt nhiem vu quan sat dupe hen he qua t i n nhan t h u dien tU theo n h o m duoc gpi la 'Danh sach dia chi t h u dien n i hanh t i n h nhd' do Richard Kowalski chii t r i . Ong la mpt ngudi boc xep hanh ly 42 tud'i, ban ngay l a m viec tai Hang US Airways d Florida va bud'i t o i t h i l a m nha thien van. Mpt so ngudi trong 800 thanh vien nghiep d u co ten trong danh sach se tham gia ghi chep nhung quan sat ciia hp chi de cho v u i ; nhung nhirng ngudi khac lai h i vong t r d thanh ngudi cd tieng t a m bat h i i 116

Mpt the h? cac nha san xuSt moi k h i ho co m p t phat hien quan trpng. Dieu dang noi la khong ai trong so hp lam viec v i tien. Thien van hpc la m p t l i n n vuc t u nhien danh cho nguon nhan luc t i n h nguyen vien. Trudc kia, van de nghien cUu bau t r d i ddi hoi ban phai n h i n chinh xac vao diem sang va vao diing t h d i diem de chiing kien nhung hien tupng m d i day an tupng, n h u vu no' ciia cac ngoi sao hoac cac v i t i n h t i i . De chop dupe sU kien do, k i n h thien van dat hay re khong phai la van de quan trpng, ma chii yeu la cd bao nhieu con mat dang ddi len bau t r d i vao tung t h d i diem nhat dinh. Cac thanh vien nghiep d u da nhan sUc manh nhan luc ciia nganh thien van hpc len gap nhieu lan - va khong chi bang each n h i n ngam cac ngoi sao n i manh san nha hp. SETRDhome ("Tim kiem thuc the thong m i n h ngoai trai dat") la m p t d u an khai thac nguon luc may t i n h d u thUa ciia hdn niia trieu may t i n h ca nhan. Sau k h i thu thap cac khoang each t h d i gian va cac t h d i gian tieng dpng trang t i i khoang khong v u t r y , d u an phan phoi cac dU lieu song phat thanh vien vpng t h u dupe vao may t i n h ciia cac t i n h nguyen vien. Trong thdi gian hp khong sii dung may tinh, m p t man h i n h chd dac biet dupe kich hoat. Trong k h i hien thi hinh anh vu tru, may t i n h cung kiem tra chi tiet ning h i n h anh t h u thap dupe vdi muc dich xac d i n h dau hieu bat ky cd the den h i thuc the thong m i n h ngoai trai dat. V d i each chia se dU lieu cho may t i n h ciia cac t i n h nguyen vien, chUdng t r i n h cd the khao sat m p t k h o i lupng t i n hieu 117

CAI DUOI DAI l d n hen gap nhieu lan; va tat ca nhung gi ma cac hoi vien can lam la tai mpt so phan mem ung dung xuong may t i n h cua minh. Mpt d u an nguon m d khac lai nghien cuu hinh anh sao Hda. CO quan hang khong v u t r u My - NASA da dua len mang Internet cac bUc anh do cac tau vu tru Viking chup each day hang thap nien, yeu cau nhiing ngudi truy cap trang web ciia NASA nhan chupt vao tat ca cac ho mieng n u i hia hp co the nhin thay tren bUc anh, phan loai chung thanh loai m d i (fresh), da tat (degraded) hay "ma" (ghost)/khong con dau vet. Thong thudng, day la mpt cong viec chan ngat ciia cac nha khoa hpc va cac sinh vien nhung phai ton hang thang, tham chi hang nam de hoan thanh. Tuy nhien, chi can ba thang, n h d cd cac t i n h nguyen vien, d u an "Mars Clickworkers" da xac d i n h dupe hon 200 nghin ho mieng n u i hia. Tinh trung binh tren toan bp nhiing cu nhap chupt nay, su d i n h v i nghiep d u co dp chinh xac gan n h u cac chuyen gia dia chat. Trong phan m e m "ma nguon md", m p i ngudi deu co the dong gdp cho m p t d u an, tieu chi dupe dua ra la "vdi nhieu con mat theo doi, m p i I d i lap t r i n h may t i n h deu t r d nen b i n h thudng". Tuong tu, trong thien van hpc: v d i nhieu con mat theo doi, chiing ta se thay cac hanh t i n h gan ten chung ta - va van con du thdi gian de l a m mpt dieu gi do. Tat nhien, phong trao Pro-Am ciing co nhUng diem han c h i . Phan l d n hp chi t h u thap dU lieu, khong tao ra ly thuyet m d i ve vat ly thien the. Ddi k h i , hp khong 118

Mot the he cac nha san xult moi the phan tich chinh xac du" lieu t h u dupe. Tuy nhien, v i t r i a i a ho trong linh vuc nay co ve chac chan. Trong tap chi Sky & Telescope,

John Lankford, m p t ngudi

nghien cUu lich sU khoa hpc, nhan xet ve vai tro a i a cac nha thien van nghiep d u My: "Luon co mot su phan cong lao dong giUa nhung chuyen gia va ngudi khong chuyen. Nhung trong mong lai se kho co the phan biet dupe hai n h o m ngudi nay".

P H 6 BIEN H O A CONG CU S A N X U A T Dieu mdi me trong van de nay la hinh thUc thuc hien, chU khong han chi la khai niem. Thuc ra, Karl Marx cd the duoc coi la nha tien t r i dau tien a i a nen kinh te Pro-Am. N h u Demos nhan xet "Trong cuon He tu tudng Ditc, dupe viet trong khoang t h d i gian 18451847, Marx da cho rang t i n h trang lao dong - b i ap bUc, bde lot va ep budc - se b i thay the bang hoat dong tut giac". Cuoi ciing, ong h i vong se cd luc "trinh dp san xuat vat chat se mang lai t h d i gian d u thUa de con ngudi cd the l a m viec khac". Marx dua ra h i n h thai xa hpi xa hpi chii nghia, trong do "...khong ai cd pham v i hoat dong rieng biet nhung m o i ngudi cd the t h a m d u vao bat ky l i n h vUc nao m i n h muon... d i san vao buoi sang d i cau ca vao bud'i chieu, chan gia sue vao bud'i 1

toi, tranh luan vdi nhau sau bUa toi, y n h u t o i cd m p t y dinh ma khong nhat thiet phai t r d thanh t h d san, ngu dan, ngudi chan gia sue hay nha phe binh".

119

CAl DUOI DAI Ke tuc quan diem ciia Marx, Pro-Am la mpt su sang tao ciia Nguon luc dau tien ciia Cai duoi ddi, sU pho bien cong cu san xuat. NhUng tac dong ma chung ta chUng kien trong linh vuc thien van hoc cung co the thay trong nhieu linh vuc khac. Chang han n h u 40 nam trudc, dan ghi-ta dien va cac ban nhac nghiep d u da gdp phan pho bien nhac nhe. Su xuat hien may v i tinh va cac cong cu san xuat dang gdp phan phd' bien phong t h u thanh. Phan m e m lap n h o m nhac GarageBand ciia hang Apple, dUOc tang mien p h i k h i mua may t i n h Mac ciia hang, chao m d i ngudi sU dung may t i n h vdi Idi gpi y "Hay t h u lai bai hat hit tiep theo ciia ban" va cung cap cac cong cu de thuc hien viec t h u thanh. TUOng ty, may quay video ky thuat so va bp phan m e m hieu chinh dung cho may t i n h (dupe tang mien p h i kem vdi moi he dieu hanh Windows hoac v d i m o i may tinh Mac) dang dat cong cu l a m p h i m vao tay cac nha lam phim khong chuyen tai nha, v o n trudc kia chi danh cho nhUng nha l a m p h i m chuyen nghiep. Tuy nhien, da xuat hien Idi nhan xet theo quan diem ciia chii nghia b i n h quan. Mac d u cac may photocopy la cong cu dau tien chUng to sU sai l a m ciia tuyen bo "sUc m a n h ciia bao chi thupc ve nhUng ai sd h f f u chung", nhung chinh cac blog m d i thuc sU phuc hung cac nha xuat ban nghiep du. Ngay nay, hang ngay co hang trieu ngudi xuat ban tac pham ciia m i n h cho so lupng dpc gia l d n hpn bat ky m p t hang truyen thong clunh thong nao cd the dat dupe. Nhung thU gop phan 120

Mot thยง he cac nha san xuSt moi phat trien blog lai chinh la cac cong cu dupe pho bien rpng rai: suf xuat hien ciia cac dich v u va phan mem re tien, d o n gian, tao dieu kien cho viec xuat ban tren mang t r d nen d i dang va ai cung co the lam dupe. TUPng tU v o l viec i n an va hieu chinh anh bang may tinh, cac game video khuyen khich ngudi choi sang tao va co cac t r i n h dp choi khac nhau ciia chinh hp, va xuat ban sach i n theo yeu cau. Vai thap nien trudc, ngudi b i n h thudng chung ta hau n h u khong the lam dupe cac bp p h i m hit v i hai ly do: (1) chung ta khong co cac cong cu l a m p h i m can thiet, va (2) chung ta khong cd d u nang luc. Ngay nay, chi con mpt ly do cho van de nay - va t h a m chi l y do nay cung khong chac chan n h u nhung ly do tren. Hollywood, vdi tat ca hieu Ung ky thuat ddi hdi ciia nd, khong the t i m ra mpt nha lam p h i m v i dai tiem an nao tren trai dat nay. Cong nghe re tien va pho bien cd the lam tot hon ca mot nha san xuat p h i m tai gidi. Ngay trudc nang luc tao ra cong cu san xuat, con bay gid t h i ngUdc lai. Tac dpng ciia tat ca hien tupng nay la chung ta dang bat dau thay d d i tU nhiing ngudi tieu diing t h u dpng thanh nhung nha san xuat chii dpng. Va chung ta lam v i chung ta yeu thich cong viec do (tU "nghiep d u amateur"

bat nguon tU danh tU Latin amator,

yeu", va tU dpng tU amare,

"ngudi

"yeu"). Ban cd the thay

nhirng ngudi nghiep d u d quanh ban - d p h a m v i nay cac blog nghiep d u dang cd ciing m d i quan tam v d i dong t r u y e n thong chii dao, cac ban nhac nho dang phat hanh am nhac tren mang tren Internet ma khong 12)

CAl DUOI DAl can phai la ban nhac co ten nidi, tiep theo, ngudi tieu dung dang thong t r i viec danh gia, nhan xet tren mang. Hinh thUc mac dinh cua qua t r i n h san xuat da chuyen n i "Gianh quyen dupe lam" sang "Cai gi ngan ban lai?" Tac gia Doc Searl goi do la su thay ddi, tir "chu nghia tieu dung" sang "chu nghia san xuat" nang dong: "Nen kinh te tieu dung" la mot he thong do nha san xuat chi phoi, trong do ngudi tieu diing khong la gi khac hon nhirng nguon nang luong chuyen hoa "hang hoa" thanh tien. Do la ket qua hoan toan sai lech ve sue manh tuyet ddi ciia nha san xuat ddi vdi ngudi tieu dung ke t u khi nha san xuat gianh thing loi trong Cuoc each mang cong nghiep. Hang Apple da dem lai cho ngudi tieu dung cong cu bien hp thanh nha san xuat. ThUc tien nay dang thay ddi tan gdc ca thi trudng va nen kinh te phat trien dua tren thi trudng. Toi co the nhan thay thuc tien nay n i chinh nhiing dtia con nho ciia minh, nhirng ngudi, n h u toi dang viet day, dang tham gia vao cong nghe lam p h i m

machinima

- nhUng bp p h i m hoat hinh ngan tren may tinh dupe dung bang phan mem game video. Sii dpng cac cong cu hien t h i khong gian ba chieu ciia game n h u Halo 3 hay Sims bang true quan, cac dao d i i n machinima chi can viet mpt kich ban, kiem soat cac nhan vat va noi Idi thuyet minh. NhUng thU khac - dung canh, quay phim va cac mo hinh phuong tien giao thong - dupe thuc hien bang phan mem ciia game. Dieu nay giong n h u cd ca

122

Mpt the he cac nha san xuat moi mpt hang p h i m Pixar mini trong m6i thiet b i game video Xbox hay trong may tinh. Phan ung dau tien ciia bon tre la xem va thuong thiic cac bp p h i m machinima n h u mpt h i n h thiic giai t r i . Phan ling tiep theo la the hien su to mo muon biet each lam cac bp p h i m nay n h u the nao. Va cuoi ciing, bon tre h o i x e m chiing co the t u l a m bp p h i m n h u the khong. (Tat nhien, cau t r a I d i la co the). Cai m a macWnima thieu do la su trau chuot ciia mpt bp p h i m Hollywood, nhung the manh ciia no chinh la cam hiing sang tao. Mpt the he dang l d n len va chiing kien m p i ngudi giong n h u m i n h tao ra nhUng san pham sang tao an tupng. Dieu do khong the khong tao an tupng. Dieu khien ta nghi den "thien tai" k h i xem mpt bp p h i m hay nghe m p t ban nhac - do la do nhiing ngudi the hien cd thuc tai va bp may lang xe da gan ket hp vol tac pham nghe thuat vd song ma chiing ta ca ngpi. Tuy nhien, mot k h i chiing ta biet r d cac van de hau trudng, chung ta bat dau nhan ra rang chung

ta cung

co the t r d thanh thien tai. Do la k h i cac cong cu san xuat deu ro rang va truyen cam hung sang tao cho chiing ta. Khi cong chiing hieu cong viec do tuyet vdi n h u the nao, hp cang chac chan m u o n t u m i n h lam dupe. Ngay nay, hang trieu ngudi dan b i n h thudng da co cong cu san xuat va mau h i n h vai dien, giup hp t r d thanh nha san xuat nghiep du. Mpt vai ngudi ciing se cd tai nang va trien vong. V i phuong thUc san xuat da pho' bien rpng rai va cd nhieu ngudi biet each sii dung, 123

CAI DUOI DAI cho nen nhung ngudi co tai nang va trien vong, cho d u chi la mot bo phan nho trong vo van con ngudi, deu co the t r d thanh ngudn luc dang dUOc coi trong. Khong nen ngac nhien neu mot so tac pham nghe thuat cd tinh sang tao va anh hudng l d n nhat trong vai thap nien t o i lai la san pham cua nhung ngudi co sd thich rieng thuoc tang ldp Pro-Am, ma khong phai t i i nhiing tang ldp truyen thong trong the gidi thuong mai. Tac dong cua sU thay ddi nay la Cai duoi ddi se dUOc phd bien v o l tdc do chUa Uing thay.

H I E N T U O N G WIKIPEDIA Thang 1 nam 2001, mot thuong gia giau co ten la Jimmy Wales da bat dau xay dung mot t u dien true truyen do so theo mot each thUc hoan toan mdi - bang each ghi lai kien thUc chung ciia hang trieu chuyen gia nghiep du, ban chuyen nghiep va ca cong chung nhUng ngudi cho rang ho cd hieu biet ve mot linh vuc nao do. TU dien nay se phuc v u mien p h i cho tat ca m o i ngudi va dupe xay dung khong phai bang cac chuyen gia va ngudi bien tap duoc tra cong, ma bang nhiing ai m u o n dong gop xay dung tU dien. 6 n g Wales bat dau vdi m o t chuc n i d i n h trudc va Ung dung phan m e m cd ten goi Wiki (ten goi cd gdc gac tU Hawaii co nghia la "nhanh") cho phep bat ky ai su" dung web ding cd the vao trang nay va bien t | p , xda bd hay b d sung cho nhirng thU dang cd trong trang web. Muc tieu ciia

124

Mpt the he cac nha san xuat moi ong khong gi h o n ngoai viec xay dung mot kho kien thiic canh tranh vol t h i i vien cd khong 16 d Alexandria. Y tuong tren thiic s i i gay tranh cai. Trudc het, day khong phai la each thiic thong thudng k h i xay dung mot cuon bach khoa. Thong thudng, viec tap hop kien thUc cd can cU chinh xac la cong doan dau tien do cac hpc gia thuc hien. Ban dau, chi co mpt sd nha thong thai don dpc dam diing ra t h i i l a m mpt viec tudng n h u khong the l a m dupe. Trong thdi cd dai Hi Lap, m p t m i n h Aristotle da ghi lai tat ca kien thUc cd trong thdi dai ciia ong. 400 nam sau, nha quy toe La ma Pliny da lap nen m o t bp sach gom 37 tap ghi lai kien thUc ciia thoi do. Hpc gia Trung Quoc Do H u n

da n i viet m o t cuon bach khoa trong the k y thU 9. Va trong the k y 17, Diderot va m p t vai ngudi ban than (gom ca Voltaire va Russeau) da mat 29 nam de l a m nen bo Bach khoa hay Tit dien gidi nghia Khoa Nghe thuat vd Nghe

hoc,

nghiep.

Cong viec mang t i n h ca the da dan phat trien thanh cong viec ciia mpt nhom, nhat la sau Cach mang Cong nghiep. Cuoi the k y 18, m p t vai nhan vat ngudi Scot trong Ky nguyen Khai m i n h da ap dung cac nguyen tac san xuat cong nghiep ve quan ly khoa hpc va lanh nghiem day chuyen lap rap de tao thanh m p t cuon bach khoa chua tting cd tren the gidi. Cuon bach khoa toan t h u Encyclopaedia 1

Britannica

tai ban lan thU ba,

Tu Yu hay Du You (735-812), hoc gia, te tuting doi Difong, viet bp Thong dien. 125

CAl DUOI DAI xuat ban trong thdi gian 1788 -1797, da len den tam tap, cong them 2 tap phu luc, tong cong 16 nghin trang. Cac nhom chuyen gia duoc tuyen chon ky luong da viet cac n i ngu" mang t i n h hoc thuat dudl su chi dao cua mot ngudi quan ly, sap xep theo mot ke hoach cong viec cu the. Con ngay nay, Wales da dUa ra each thUc lam n i dien thU ba: tap hdp m d . Thay v i dua vao mot ngudi that thong thai hay mot nhom ngudi thong thai cd chpn IQC, Wikipedia da t h u hut hang chuc nghin ngudi ciia tat ca cac tang ldp - n i nhiing chuyen gia thuc su cho den nhUng ngudi quan tam truy cap trang web - vdi vo s6 ngudi quan ly t u nguyen tiep nhan cac dU lieu muc n i va theo ddi sU tien trien ciia no. Theo thong ke ve cuon bach khoa ciia Wales, Wikipedia cd 50 nghin thanh vien t u nguyen. Nha van Daniel Pink nhan xet: "Thay v i cd sU xac dinh tac gia rd rang, Wikipedia dua vao su phi tap trung hoa va t u to' chUc; nguon t u lieu m d dudi hinh thuc thuan n i y nhat. Hau het cac cuon bach khoa deu lac hau ngay thdi diem cuon sach dupe i n ra. Tuy nhien, su dung phan mem Wiki va vol mot so cong cu tro giup, ban cd dupe m o t san pham t u bien tap va hau nhu l u o n song dong. Mot m d h i n h san xuat khac dang tao ra m o t san pham de thay ddi, nhanh chong, on dinh va khong mat tien". Vao nam 2001, quan diem nay dudng n h u la phi ly. Nhung den nam 2005, i d i lorih doanh khong Idi lai nay da tao nen m o t cuon n i dien bach khoa l d n nhat the 126

Mot the he cac nha san xuat moi gidi. Ngay nay, Wikipedia cung cap horn 2 trieu n i muc tieng A n h - so v o i 120 nghin n i (65 nghin theo ban in) ciia cuon Britannica

va 60 nghin n i ciia Encarta

dUOc h o n 75 nghin ngudi gop siic tao nen. Neu cong them phan ban sao n i dien bang hon mpt t r a m ngon ngu" khac, ke ca Quoc te ngu va ngon ngti ciia nguoi 1

Kurd, tong cong so n i a i a Wikipedia phai len d i n 5,3 trieu n i . Neu ban muon dong gop cho Wikipedia, tat ca nhiing dieu ban can chi la truy cap Internet: dudi m o i n i muc deii cd mpt nut bam "sua ddi trang nay" cho phep ngudi sU dung t h a m gia chinh sUa n p i dung bai viet. Moi ngudi trong chiing ta la m o t chuyen gia v i van de nao do va cai hay ciia Wikipedia la khong cd mot van de gi qua hep den mUc khong the b d sung them bai viet. Dieu nay hoan toan ngupc han v d i n i dien

Britannica.

Neu ban m d cuon n i dien bach khoa v i dai nay va khong t i m thay n i muc ve van de ban muon tham khao hoac chi t i m thay n i muc giai thich chua day dii, ban chang the l a m dupe gi ngoai cam giac hue m i n h hoac viet m p t la t h u gdp y cho nha bien tap (va khong hy vong se nhan dupe t h u h o i am). Nhung v d i Wikipedia, ban co the t u m i n h an d i n h hoac tao ra n i muc do. Thay d d i n i cam giac tUc gian t h u dpng sang tham gia tich cue la ca m p t su khac biet ldn. Mpi ngudi thudng phan nan ve tU dien trudc day la khong cho phep sUa lai m p t Idi n d i dua ve thdi tiet, t h i nay ban co the l a m dUdc viec gi do.

127

CAI DUOI DAI THOI DAI XAC SUAT Thuc te cho thay hau het cac tut muc dau vao ciia Wikipedia "khong co can c i l chinh xac". Dieu nay co the hieu la: thuc trang cac tU muc ciia Wikipedia khong phai luc nao ciing chinh xac. Tat nhien, do la dieu khong the tranh duoc k h i ai ciing co the b d sung vao cac tU muc nay. Khac v o l cuon tU dien Britannica, moi tU muc deu duoc cac giao su day trach nhiem lua chon, kiem t r a va xay dung, con tU muc ciia Wikipedia ddn gian xuat hien, dupe hoan thanh tU luc khong co gi nhd su k y dieu ciia nut bam "SUa ddi trang nay". Cuoi nam 2005, John Seigenthaler Sr. da viet mpt bai b i n h luan tren t d Nude My Ngay nay (USA Today) ve muc tU trong Wikipedia noi ve ong, muc tU bat dau vol: John Seigenthaler Sr. la trp ly ciia Bp truoing TU phap Robert Kennedy vao dau nhung nam 60. Trong mot thoi gian ngan, ong b i coi la da co lien quan true tiep toi cac vu am sat anh em nha Kennedy, ca John Kennedy va ngudi em Bobby Kennedy. Chua co bang chung chung minh dieu nay. Ngoai phan de cap ong la t r p ly ciia Robert Kennedy trong thap nien 60, ro rang cac phan thong t i n khac ciia muc t i i deu sai su that va v u khong. Seigenthaler da goi cho Wales va yeu cau xoa muc tU nay (mac du ong ta co the t u m i n h lam viec nay), nhung sau do ong viet bai ve su kien nay, khuay len mpt cupc tranh cai tren toan quoc ve dp t i n cay ciia Wikipedia, va van de nay hien van con nong h d i . 128

Mpt the he cac nha san xuk mdi Cau t r a 161 khong don gian la co hay khong, bdl v i xet tren tung phan nho, ban chat noi dung do ngudi suf dung tao ra la mot m d hon don va khong chac chan, chiing ta thudng thay dieu nay d cap do v i md, nhung nhin tren pham v i tong the, Wikipedia la mot sU thanh cong dang k i n h ngac Can phai hieu dieu nay. Giong n h u Google va t r i tue chung ciia hang trieu blog khac, Wikipedia hoat dong dua tren logic ky la ciia cac thong so xac suat - thien ve kha nang cd the hon la su chac chan. Nhung t r i dc ciia chung ta khong sac sao lam trong l i n h vuc khoa hoc thong ke va xac suat. Chiing ta muon biet tU muc dua vao tU dien bach khoa diing hay sai. Chung ta cung m u o n b i l t Ueu cd mot ban tay thong m i n h nao (ly tudng nhat la mot ngudi) hudng dan cac k i t qua ciia Google. Chiing ta mudn t i n tudng vao n h i i n g cai chung ta dpc dupe. Khi cac chuyen gia - bien tap vien, phong vien, hpc gia - thuc hien cong viec nay, it nhat chiing ta biet rang co ai do lam cong viec kiem soat dp cliinh xac ciia thong tin. Nhung nay chiing ta ngay cang dUa nhieu vao nhiing he thong ma khong ai chiu trach nhiem quan ly; t r i tue don gian la ket qua " t u phat sinh", n d i each khac la dudng n h u nd xuat hiÂŁn dong thdi vol qua trinh tinh toan so lieu. Cac he thong xac suat khong phai la hoan hao, nhung chiing dem lai su chinh xac trong mpt khoang t h d i gian va v d i so lupng d i i ldn. Chiing dupe thiet k l cd "quy md", hoac cd the nang cap kich cd. Va mpt sai sot d u nhd ciing gay ra cai gia phai tra cho tinh hieu qua ciia ca quy m d td'ng the. 129

CAI DUOI DAI Nhung nhung sai sot nay co anh hudng n h u the nao? Dieu do that kho khan. Moi ngudi kho co the bo qua. Van co ly do de chung ta tiep tuc tranh cai ve hoc thuyet cua Darwin. Vay tai sao cuon sach Tri tue tap the cua James Surowjecki viet ve thuyet ban tay vo h i n h cua A d a m Smith va t i m hieu xem nhom da so co thong m i n h hon n h o m thieu so hay khong, van tiep tuc hap dan (va tiep tuc dupe m p i ngudi t i m doc) sau hon 200 nam ke tU k h i nhan vat ngudi Scot nay qua doi. Ca nen kinh te thi trudng va he tien hoa deu la nhung he thong xac suat, von khac vol t r i 6c a i a dpng vat co vu n h u chung ta. Tren thuc te, viec nhung nhan vat uyen bac da nhan biet va sU dung su hieu biet a i a minh de xay dung nen tang co ban cho nen kinh te hien dai aia chung ta, tU t h i trudng chung khoan cho den Google, chinh la bang chUng cho thay phan mem t r i tu? (kien thUc chung a i a chiing ta) da phat trien nhanh hdn phan ciing (he thong than k i n h a i a chiing ta). Cac h? thong dua tren xac suat, n h u ngon tU ciia nha van Kevin Kelly, dang "khong the kiem soat dupe". Cuon sach gay anh hudng l d n ngay tU ten gpi a i a ong da nghien ciiu tat ca cac bang chUng, n h u van de dan chii, viec l a m t h u n h o i bong, trat t u dudng n h u xuat hien n i t i n h trang l d n xpn, tU hudng dao chieu co the ciia entropy . Cuon sach da xuat ban each day chuc 1

' Trong linh vuc vat ly hoc, entropy la so do mire do hon loan ciia mot he nhieu doi tupng. Entropy cang cao thi he cang hon loan, ngupc lai entropy thap thi cac doi ttforig dong deu ve mot tinh chat nao do. 130

Mot thยง he cac nha san xuiit moi nam va hang thap n i e n qua chiing ta van ngac nhien ve n o i dung sau sac ciia cuon sach. Nhung do la sU that. Lieu Wikipedia co "dang t i n cay" ? Vay do, cau tra 161 la khong. Nhutig thuc sU co phai the khong ? Cuon bach khoa Britannica

dupe kiem duyet b d l m p t n h o m

tham d i n h nho hon, v d i t r i n h dp hpc van trung b i n h cao hon. Chac chan, cuon tU dien nay co (neu cd) i t thU bia dat hoac vd gia t r i hon Wikipedia. NhUng cung khong cd nghia la cuon sach khong co sai sot nao; tren thuc te, m p t cupc nghien cUu do tap chi khoa hoc Nature

tien hanh n a m 2005 cho thay trong 42 muc

tU ve chii de khoa hpc, Wikipedia cd trung b i n h bon loi trong m o i muc tU, va Britannica

cd ba loi. Ngay sau

k h i bai bao td'ng ket nay dupe tung ra, cac muc tU ciia Wikipedia da dupe chinh sua, con cuon Britannica

phai

chd den lan tai ban tiep theo m d i sUa dupe. NhUng l o i l d n nhat ciia cuon bach khoa

Britannica

la loi bd sot, chU khong phai loi trach nhiยฃm. Cuon sach de cap sd sai trong m p t so pham t n i va cd thong t i n lac hau trong nhieu pham t n i khac. Cd hang trieu muc tU don gian khong - va khong the co trong til dien nay - neu t i n h den each thUc bien tap tU dien. Nhung Wikipedia cd thexxl thay dd'i quy m d de bd' sung them nhUng muc tU m d i va nhieu muc tU xuat hien sau nay. Do do Wikipedia dupe cap nhat lien tuc. Uii the ciia cac he thong xac suat do la chiing hudng lpi tU t r i tue ciia tap the, vd vay cd the dat quy m d ca chieu rpng va chieu sau. Nhung vd he thong do dupe 131

CAI DUOI DAI hoan thanh bang each hy sinh su chac chan tuyet doi 1

ve mat v i mo, nen ban can nghi ngd ket qua cua no. Wikipedia co the la nguon thong t i n tham khao dau tien, nhUng khong phai la cuoi cung. Do co the la mot trang khai thac thong tin, nhUng khong phai la nguon cung cap su that cuoi ciing. Cac blog ciing vay, khong m o t blog nao chuan xac hoan toan. The gidi blog la m o t dang Cai duoi ddi, va l u o n co sai lam trong viec khai q u i t hoa chat lupng hoac ban chat noi dung trong Cai duoi ddi. Nhung cac blog n o i chung dang cluing to tac dpng ciia no khong thua kem cac dong truyen thong chii dao. Ban chi can dpc blog nhieu hon trudc k h i dua ra quyet dinh. Tuong tu, trang Google cd ve vUa thong thai vUa kho hieu. Google co the tao ra cac m d i lien ket ma ban va toi co the khong lam dupe, v i cac moi lien ket nay xuat hien tU toan hpc mpt each t y nhien vdi quy mo chiing ta khong the hieu thau dao dupe. Google la cong ty dau tien dupe sinh ra v d i su thong thai khac thudng ciia cac con so thong ke "quy m d l d n " ciia trang Web dupe kiem soat bang v i mach dien tU. V i the cong ty rat thanh cong, va dudng n h u khong ngUng phat trien. Tac gia Paul Graham cho rang: Ve ban chat, trang Web dang di theo mpt khuynh hucttig nhat dinh va Google dang g i n vdi khuynh hudng do. Vi the, su thanh cong cua hp dudng nhu khong mat nhieu cong sUc. Tuy nhien, Google dang chpn each chong choi vdi song gio, chU khong chiu ngoi hudng

132

Mot the h? cac nha san xuiit mdi song yen be lang va nguyen cau cho mo hinh kinh doanh ciia no giong nhu bao in, hoac co gang thuan theo chieu gio bang each chieu theo khach hang, nhu Microsoft va cac thuong hieu co tieng khac. Google khong no luc de thiic ep su vat dien ra theo each ciia no. Google t i m each xac dinh dieu gi sap dien ra va chuan b i san sang de don nhan. Suy cho ciing, trang Web nay la mot nha tap hop nhung t u duy khac nhau tren t h i truong va chiu su chi ph6i ciia quy luat so dong. Graham coi tam diem ciia van de la su ket noi cac con so thong ke co hoc, mot each giai thich logic duy nhat ve he thong rong 16n nay. Co le mot ngay nao do chiing ta cung dat dupe n h u vay.

SUC M A N H C U A S A N X U A T N G A N G H A N G Nhin chung, co the noi Wikipedia la ni dien bach khoa tot nhat the gioi: do sp hon, cap nhat hpn va co nhieu dan chiing thuc te sau sac h o n ca cuon

Britannica.

NhUng chat lupng a cap dp tiing muc n i dPn le rat khac n h a u Ben canh cac bai viet uyen bac dang ne, Wikipedia van con nhieu hat "san" (cac muc n i trong) va tham chi ca nhiing thU tap n h a m tii phat sinh. Trong cac n i muc pho thong vol sU theo doi ciia hang ngan con mat, Wikipedia the hien su chong cu quyet U?t d o i v o l nhirng quan d i e m va hanh dpng pha hoai. Mpt nghien cuu ciia IBM cho thay de siia chUa sai sot doi v o l cac muc tii thong dung ciia Wikipedia n h u 133

CAl DUOI DAI "Islam" chi can chua den 4 phut. Viec do khong phai do m p t bien tap vien chuyen nghiep thuc hien. Don gian, do la cong viec dupe thuc hien b d i mpt nhom tac gia nao do gom ca chuyen nghiep va nghiep d u (ProAm). Ngupc lai tat ca d u doan, he thong nay van hoat d o n g t o t . Ciing v d i qua t r i n h t r u d n g t h a n h ciia Wikipedia, dac t i n h t u chinh sua nhanh chong se lan sang nhieu muc n i khac. V a n de d day la k h o n g p h a i m p i tU muc ciia Wikipedia deu cd van de, nhung toan bo cuon tit dien dien n i nay lai co tinh sai sd. Ban cd the t i m thay mpt tU muc rieng biet, cliinh xac, cap nhat tren bat ky linh vuc nao tren Wikipedia, tham chi ca k h i rung n i muc khong han da hoan hao. N d i each k h a c , gia sir c h a t l u o n g ciia cuon Britannica

dat n i 5 den 9 diem, trung b i n h la 7 diem,

t h i chat lupng ciia Wikipedia chay n i 0 den 10 diem, vdi diem trung b i n h la 5. Nhung v d i so lupng tU nhieu gap m u d i lan cuon Britannica,

CO h p i ban chpn dupe

n i mpc tren Wikipedia phu hpp vdi chii de ban can tham khao van l d n hon. Dieu dac biet thuc su ciia Wikipedia la cuon n i dien dien n i nay dupe cap nhat hen tuc, n h u mpt thuc the song n i chUa lanh ban than v d i mpt dpi quan cham sdc khong lo va khong ngiing phat trien hoat dpng giong m p t he thong mien dich, than trpng va nhanh chong dap tra nhiing hien tupng de dpa cau tnic he thong. Giong n h u mpt he sinh thai, Wikipedia luon phat trien, lua chpn nhUng dac tinh giup cho Wikipedia vUpt 134

Mot the he cac nha san xuat mdi qua benh tat phat sinh trong he thong va ch6ng lai su de doa t i i ben ngoai. Cach thUc lam t i i dien truyen thong - cac chuyen gia bien tap, cac hoc gia viet bai, va kiem tra cheo - nham dat duoc su hoan hao cho cuon tU dien, tuy i t k h i dat dupe su hoan hao, nhung muc tieu hudng t o i su chinh xac va ro rang l u o n dupe quan t a m va chu trpng. Song ciing v i the ma qua t r i n h l a m t i i dien n h u the ton rat nhieu theft gian va tien cua. Hau het cac san pham ciia nganh xuat ban chuyen nghiep deu n h u vay: thuc te chiing ta k y vong mot cuon sach dupe i n hai mat diing nhu d u kien va se khong co loi chinh ta nao. Do la diem quy chuan chat luong, la thudc do cuon sach dat yeu cau hay khong. Mac du, v o l cac he thong xac suat, chi co m p t mUc dp sai so, do la: m p t so se t r d thanh tuyet vdi, m p t so khac se d mUc vUa phai, va mpt so se hoan toan khong dat. Do don gian la ban chat ciia su vat. Sai l a m ciia rat nhieu I d i chi trich Wikipedia do la hp da k y vong khac d i . Wikipedia don gian la m p t loai n i dien song khac v o l Britannica.

Do la m p t cong dong song, h o n

la mpt tai lieu t h a m khao bat bien. Su ky dieu thuc su ciia Wikipedia la d cho nd m d rpng cho nhiing ngudi sii dung nghiep d u t h a m gia bien tap va dong gdp y kien ma khong b j r o i vao t i n h trang hon loan. Ngupc lai, Wikipedia cd le la mpt cuon bach khoa t u to chUc hoan chinh nhat trong l i c h sii. Dao ngupc chieu m u i ten ciia entropy, Jimmy Wales da tao chat xuc tac bang viec dua ra m p t so n i muc thiet yeu va 135

CAI DUOI DAI co che cho ngudi khac b d sung n o i dung t i i muc. Viec lam do thuc su da tao ra m o t trat t u tU sU hon loan. Ket qua la chung ta co duoc mot hinh thUc tU dien bach khoa hoan toan khac: khong b i gidi han ve khong gian va qui ttinh san xuat. Wikipedia cho phep tat ca cac tU muc cd the co ciia bat ky mot t u Lieu tham khao nao tren the gidi va ca hang chuc ngan tU muc chua du tinh trudc deu cd the duoc dua vao Wikipedia, tU cac bai viet chuyen sau tren nhieu linh vuc da dude dang trong sach n h u co hoc luong t i i den tieu sii ciia cac nghe si hai. Hay ndi each khac, Wikipedia cd tat ca, t i i nhirng san pham hit den mot sd l d n san pham

ngach.

Hinh thUc cd dien ciia t i i dien bach khoa la mot tap hop cac thuat ngU van tU ciia nha thd. Cac quy chuan co ban trong do phai duoc chinh quyen cong nhan. Do vay, cd nhieu tU muc khac b i luoc bdt k h i cac linh muc ciia Britannica

ket luan la "khong thich hop". Ngupc

lai, Wikipedia tiep tuc m d rdng sd luong n i . Ve diem nay, ban cd the coi Wikipedia gidng nhu mot do t h i am nhac Rhapsody. Cd khoang 1 nghin n i muc phd thong nhat thudng thay trong bat ky cuon n i dien bach khoa nao: Julius Caesar, Chien tranh The gidi thU 2, thong ke hoc, v.v.. NhUng n i nay gidng n h u nhUng bai hat hit. L d i giai nghia ciia nhUng n i nay trong Wikipedia cd the canh tranh vdi nhiing chuyen gia hang dau, nhiing ngudi viet nen nhiing n i muc dang t i n cay va trau chudt de giai thich hien thuc mot each de hieu va uyen bac. Uu the chinh ciia n i dien t y tao Wikipedia ddi vol cac n i muc loai nay la kha nang cap nhat, khong 136

Mot the he cac nha san xuat moi han che do dai n o i dung giai thich va co cac hieu ling h i n h anh ho tro' (nhu tranh anh hoac do thi), co cac dudng k i t n o i da dang v o l cac t u lieu b d sung, va co the, co ca nhung gia thuyet va lap luan dupe trinh bay tot hon. 0" giUa do t h i , tU d o a n tU m u c t h U 1000, n o i Britannica

ket thuc, t o i doan n i muc thU 80 nghin la

nhUng c h i i de d i e n hep h o n : T h u t h u a t Caesar, Okinawa, p h a n t i c h h o i quy v.v... 6" day, mo h i n h Wikipedia bat dau tang sUc canh tranh v i mat hpc thuat chuyen nghiep. Vol quan niem khong gian khong han che, viec giai thich n i muc ciia Wikipedia co x u hudng dai h o n va hoan chinh hon. Trong k h i trung b i n h dp dai n o i dung giai thich n i muc ciia khoang 678

tii/tii

Britannica

muc, t h i 200 n g h i n n i muc ciia

Wikipedia (ldn bang 2 cuon Britannica

cong lai) cd

dung lupng n p i dung giai thich dai hPn. Ben canh do, vdi Uu the l d n la dupe k i t n d i v d i ben ngoai va thong t i n l u o n cap nhat, Wikipedia t r d thanh mpt diem k h d i dau cho qua t r i n h nghien ciiu k y hon. T i i p d i n la Phan duoi, n i n i muc thU 80 nghin d i n 1 trieu. Wikipedia cd nhiing n i muc ma cac cuon tii dien bach khoa khong cd. Cac tii rmic nay ve nhieu chii de - mat m a Caesar, t h u rac dong, he so tuong hen v i t r i ciia Spear - dupe x i p theo thU tii tii nhUng tii muc tot nhat trong Wikipedia (dupe cac chuyen gia chuyen sau viet) cho d i n nhung tii muc t o i nhat (tii tao, xep hang, va nhung t r d dua). Mac d u cd nhieu ngudi chi trich cac muc tii t o i nhat ciia Wikipedia, song u u diem quan 137

CAI DUOI DAI trong thnc su; cua Phan duoi ciia Wikipedia khong co bat ky cuon n i dien nao de cap d ยง n nhiing n i nhu vay. TU nhUng nganh khoa hoc co ban cho den tinh hinh chinh t r i dupe cap nhat tUng phut, Wikipedia dat den do ma cac tii dien khac - von b i han che do i n tren giay hay dia DVD - kho co the lam dupe. Cuon tii dien Britannica

khong (chua) co tii muc ve hien tupng Cai

duoi ddi, nhung trong Wikipedia, n i muc nay khong chi dupe giai thich tot va sau sac, ma con co dp dai 1500 tii (khong phai do t o i viet!). Cac tac gia ciia Wikipedia co x u huong tham gia mpt each nhiet tinh, n i do va m u o n gop phan nang cao t r i n h dp hieu biet ciia cong chung ve linh vuc ma hp hieu biet va yeu thich. Hp la mpt cong dong chi trong quang thdi gian 5 nam ngan ngiii da Ion gap nghin lan ban dau v d i su gdp mat ciia nhiing tac gia nghiep d u duoc quyen sU dung cac cong cu l a m tii dien mdi, don gian, dupe pho bien rpng rai: mpt trinh duyet Web va m p t dau n o i Internet. Day la the gidi ciia "san xuat ngang hang" vdi viec Internet da gdp phan lam nen hien tiidng tinh nguyen va nghiep d u rdng khap. Chung ta dang d trong buoi b i n h m i n h ciia mpt thdi dai ma d do, hau het cac nha san xuat tren bat ky l i n h vuc nao ciing lam viec khong luong, va diem khac biet chinh giUa hp va nhung nha san xuat chuyen nghiep don gian chi la khoang each "ngay cang ngan" ve nguon t u lieu danh cho hp de m d rpng tham vong trong cong viec. K h i cac cong cu san xuat t r d nen pho bien cho tat ca m p i ngudi, bat ky ai ciing cd the t r d thanh nha san xuat. 138

Mot the he cac nha san xuat moi

NEN K I N H TE D U A TREN U Y T I N Tai sao hp lai lam dieu do? Tai sao ai do tao ra mot vat co gia t r i (tu m p t tir muc trong tuc dien bach khoa 1

cho den viec theo doi thien van hoc) ma khong can phai co ke hoach k i n h doanh hay tham chi co hy vong dupe tra cong? Cau h o i nay la chia khoa de hieu ve Cai duoi ddi, mpt phan la co qua nhieu san pham tren do t h i dudng cong ciia cai dudi khong phai ngay k h i ra ddi da cd muc dich thuong mai. Quan trong hon, cau h o i nay t r d thanh van de dang quan tam b d i v i no chinh la bang chiing tiep theo cho thay chiing ta can t u duy lai cac t h i trudng. Dpng luc de san xuat cac san p h a m d phan d u d i khong giong v d i phan dau ciia dudng cong. Mot m d h i n h l a n h te khong the p h u hpp v d i t i t ca. Ban co the t u duy ve dudng cong Cai dudi ddi rang nd dupe bat d l u bang nguyen l y ciia m p t nen k i n h te tien te t r u y i n thong va ket thuc v o l nguyen ly ciia mpt nen l a n h te p h i tien te. GiUa hai phan nay la kieu pha trpn ciia ca hai nen k i n h te n d i tren. Tai phan dau, cac san p h a m cd l p i nhuan theo quy luat t i n h toan k i n h doanh v o l cac kenh phan p h o i t h i trudng rpng ldn, day uy luc song cd chi p h i cao. Do la pham v i ciia cac nha chuyen nghiep va chiing nao hp con yeu t h i c h n h i i n g gi hp dang lam, t h i do ciing la cong viec. Chi p h i san xuat va phan p h o i qua cao cd the khien l a n h te hpc k e m sang tao. Dong tien da chi p h o i qua t r i n h n i san xuat den k i n h doanh.

139

CAI DUOI DAI Xuong phan duoi, noi chi phi san xuat va phan phoi d mUc thap (nhd sue manh ciia qua trinh pho bien hoa cac cong nghe k y thuat so), muc tieu k i n h doanh thudng diing d v i t r i t h i i yeu. Thay vao do, con ngudi sang tao v i hang loat nhiing ly do khac - m u o n the hien, cho vui, thU nghiem... Ly do de ban co the goi do la mot bd phan cau thanh ciia nen ltinh te chinh la do mot nhan to quan trong khong k e m dong tien danh tieng. Dupe danh gia bang sUc t h u hut ciia mpt san pham doi v d i cong chiing tieu diing, danh tieng cd the bien thanh nhung thU co gia t r i khac: viec lam, sd hUu, khan gia va nhiing Idi m d i chao sinh Idi. T i m Wu, Giao su l u a t hoc ciia t r u d n g D a i hoc Columbia, goi do la "van hoa the hien minh". Lay blog lam v i du, ong viet: Van hda the hien minh phan anh triet ly ciia Web, co tinh den mpi yeu to. Cac tac gia viet Web lien ket vdi nhau, trich tu lieu mot each tu do va doi khi trich toan bp bai viet. Thu dien t u ket noi vdi cac bai viet Ua thich va cac cau chuyen vui, t r d thanh mpt phan ciia van hda cong sd My nhu mot hinh thUc giai tri. Loi ldn ciia van hoa the hien minh khong phai d viec sao chep, ma la khong xac dinh chinh xac tac gia. Tam diem ciia van hda the hien nay chinh la co may t i m kiem day quyen nang. Neu linh vuc ciia ban de dang dupe tim thay tren trang Google - ban nen an mUng dieu do. Vdi nhan dinh rang dudng cong do thi cd cac nha sang tao v o l nhung dpng luc khac nhau, chiing ta cung

140

Mot the he cac nha san xuiit moi 1

de dang thay su khac nhau doi v o l quan tam cua ho ve sd h i i u t r i tue. Hang Disney va ban nhac Metallica luon co gang de giu" va m d rpng ban quyen tac gia, nhung nhieu (tham chi con nhieu hon the) cac nghe si va nha san xuat khac coi viec phan phoi

peer-to-peer

la mpt each tiep t h i it ton tien. Cac nhac si co the diing each nay de quang cao buoi bieu d i i n ciia ho vol khan gia, cac nha l a m p l u m dpc lap coi phuong thiic phan ph6i nay n h u m p t each de gidi thieu qua tay nhieu ngudi, va cac hpc gia coi viec n i do tai dU lieu bai v i i t ciia hp la each tang anh hudng va tang lupng dpc gia. Quan diem nay da gdp phan lam thay dd'i t u duy ciia cac nha sang tao ve quyen tac gia. 0" phan d i n h ciia dudng cong do t h i , cac phong thu, cac cong ty l d n va cac nha xuat ban t i m each bao ve quyen tac gia mpt each quyet liet. 6" phan giUa dudng cong, lanh dia ciia cac t h u o n g h i e u dpc lap va cac nha xuat ban ciia trudng dai hpc, do la k h u vuc pha trpn. Xudng gan phan

duoi, trong k h u vuc p h i thuong mai la m p t sd

lupng ngay cang tang cac nha sang tao dang chpn each bd bdt m p t so n p i dung ciia quyen tac gia. Ke n i nam 2002, to chUc p h i l p i nhuan Creative Commons da phat hanh loai giay phep ciing ten, cho phep sii dung linh hoat m p t so an pham nhat d i n h cd ban quyen vi muc tieu cao ca (cho cac nha sang tao) trong viec phan phoi mien p h i , p h o i lai ban nhac va thong qua ngudi sii dung truyen ba cac quan diem, l p i ich va ten tud'i ciia hp. (Tren thuc te, t o i da l a m n h u vay v d i blog ciia toi, v i t i t ca cac ly do tren). 141

CAI DUOI DAI Tom lai, mot so tac gia quan tam tcfi van de ban quyen, con m p t so khac t h i khong. Luat phap khong phan biet hai n h o m ngudi nay - van de ban quyen t u dpng dupe cong nhan va bao ve t r u p h i ai do dut khoat t u bo. Ket qua la quyen luc cua " t u do" b i can t r d bdi noi lo sp b i quy ket an cap ban quyen va thudng b i nghi ngd, mpt phan khong nhd b d i v i nd gpi lai nhUng sU bat chudc m u quang bat hanh ciia cac khau hieu ciia xa h p i Dong A u cii lan phong trao hippy. Du gi t h i do ciing la nhUng gi chung ta can danh gia lai k h i sUc manh ciia "nen lanh te cho tang" dang noi len ngay cang rd - trong tat ca m p i van de, tU blog cho den ma ngudn md. Mpt phan cong viec ciia toi (bien tap cho tap chi co 650 nghin ban) la d phan dau ciia do t h i , mpt phan khac (trang blog cd 30 nghin ngudi truy cap) lai nam d phan dudi. Quyet d i n h ciia t o i ve van de ban quyen trong tUng trudng hpp nay rat khac nhau. Toi h i vong, mpt ngay nao do, t h i trudng va cac quy tac se phan anh xac thuc hdn thuc te xa h p i nay.

KHONG NGUONG KHI TU XUAT BAN Chung ta thudng nghi den sach bao qua lang kinh thuong mai, cho rang hau het cac tac gia deu m u o n viet m p t tac pham ban chay nhat va n h d do ma giau len. Nhung thuc te cho thay da sd cac tac gia khong chi m u o n t r d t h a n h ngudi cd sach ban chay nhat va con cd gang viet m p t tac p h a m dupe cong chung ddn

142

Mot thยง h? cac nha san xuk. mdi nhan rpng rai. Hang nam, gan 200 nghin cuon sach viet bang tieng A n h dupe xuat ban, nhung chi co dudi 20 nghin cuon co mat tai cac sieu t h i sach. Hau het sach viet ra khong ban dupe. Nam 2004, Nielsen BookScan co 1,2 trieu cuon sach, trong do 950 nghin dau sach ban dupe vol so lupng i t hon 99 ban cho m o i dau sach. 200 nghin cuon khac ban dupe it hpn 1 nghin ban m o i cuon. Chi co 2 5 nghin cuon ban dupe hPn 5000 ban m o i cuon. Trung b i n h m o i cuon sach d My ban dupe 500 ban. Noi each khac, khoang 98% so sach khong co lai, cho d u co chu d i n h hay khong. Nhu cau phai co sU cong nhan rpng rai t r e n t h i t r u d n g k h i e n n g u d i viet phai cd sU thoa hiep - t u nguyen chpn nhirng chii de cd nhieu ngudi quan t a m hon la chii de chuyen sau va viet theo phong each doi thoai h o n la mang t i n h hpc thuat. Da so cac nha van khong l a m viec nay va m p t so khac se khong l a m the. Thay vao do, da so ldn cac tac gia chpn each theo duoi niem say me ciia hp va khong h i vpng se k i e m dupe tien. Nhieu ngudi chi h i vpng tac pham ciia hp dupe m p t n h o m nho dpc gia quan tam t i m dpc - ni" nhiing ngudi ngang hang cho den nhirng ngudi cd tam hon dong di?u. Tac pham xuat ban khong cd lai kieu nay deu cd the sinh Idi. Cuon sach khong con la san p h a m ciia gia t r i ma ciia sU quang cdo cho chinh cac tac gia. Nhieu cuon sach khong cd lai nay la phudng tien tiep t h j tot nhat gdp phan nang cao danh tieng ciia tac gia, tiep t h i cong 143

CAI DUOI DAI viec t i t van cua ho, dem lai cho ho tien thue phat bieu, hay chi don thuan ghi dau an cua hp tren the gidi nay. Theo each n h i n do, tac pham t u xuat ban khong phai la phuong thiic kiem tien, ma la each truyen ba thong diep ciia hp. De hieu so lupc ve the gidi sach, hay xem trudng hpp trang web Lulu.com, mpt san pham m d i ciia "nha xuat ban" D I Y . Chi can bd ra chUa den 200 dola, Lulu 1

khong chi cd kha nang bien tac pham ciia ban thanh m p t cuon sach bia m e m hoac bia ciing, cap mpt ma so ISBN, ma con dam bao de cuon sach do cd ten trong danh muc sach ciia cac nha ban le tren mang. Mpt k h i cd ten trong danh mpc sach, cuon sach se san sang den vol hang trieu dpc gia va cd tiem nang sanh ngang vdi cuon Harry

Porter, neu lan gio b i n h luan thuan

c h i l u . Vol Lulu, cac cudn sach dupe i n theo tutig dpt, khoang vai chuc ban va se dupe i n bd' sung k h i can theo phuong thiic i n theo n h u cau. Day la m p t budc tien dang ke ciia hinh thiic xuat ban von b i coi la "phii phiem" trong vai nam trudc day. V i the, hang nghin tac gia hien nay dang chpn each thiic nay de xuat ban tac p h a m ciia minh. Sau day la danh sach nhiing cuon sach t u xuat ban tren Lulu: 1. Doan song cho nhitng ngudi ban ron : nhung mon an hang ngay dan gian vd khong

can dung

che bien thtic an. 1

Tieng Anh la "Do It Yourself" - tu xuat ban. 144

may

Mpt the he cac nha san xuat mdi 2. Gidng cho Havana

("So tay danh rieng cho nhiing

ngudi n u d i va ua thich giong cho Havana"). 3. Kham pha sinh vat hoc - Phong thi nghiem

tho set

doi vdi BIO 100, xuat ban lan t h i i 12. 4. Lam thi nao de dat diem SAT cao 5. Bdt dau viec kinh doanh

tochitc

nhat.

dam cudi nhu the

nao. Tat ca cac cuon sach nay da ban dupe ni 5.000 den 50 nghin ban, mpt con so khong toi. Tac gia dupe nhan true t i l p 80% l p i nhuan ban sach, nhieu hem dang ke so v o l ty le 15% l p i nhuan ciia cac nha xuat ban chinh quy. N h u vay la qua h d i doi v o l viec t u xuat ban v o n b i coi la chi danh cho nhUng ke thua cupc. Tuy nhien, da so cac tac gia khong diing dich v u t u xuat ban de k i e m lpi, hay h i vpng dat ky luc ban sach. Phan l d n trong so hang nghin khach hang ciia Lulu chpn phucrng thUc n i xuat ban v i hp biet rang nhiing tac pham hp viet khong the ban d u doanh so de co the hpp tac vol mpt nha xuat ban sinh lai dang gia. Nhung dieu do khong co nghia hp khong co dpc gia tiem nang, ma van de la so lupng dpc gia ciia hp khong d u Ion. Vai n a m trudc, da so cac tac gia tren se khong cd co h p i xuat ban sach - va thuc te se l a m nan long nhieu ngudi t r o n g so hp ngay k h i bat tay vao viet. Nhung ngay nay, chi p h i xuat ban xuong thap den mUc hau n h u m p i ngudi deu cd the xuat ban sach. TUc la con ngudi cd the viet nhUng cuon sach m a hp m u o n va hp

145

CAl DUOI DAl khong phai p h u thuoc vao su danh gia cua mot so nha xuat ban ve chat luong cuon sach co d u de tung ra t h i trudng hay khong. Tac dpng ciia h i n h thiic t i t xuat ban da anh hudng t o i toan nganh, t o i ca nhiing nha sach khong lo. Nam 2005, doanh so ban ra ciia Barnes & Noble tang hon 20% m o i dau sach so v o l nam 2004. Chii tich h o i dong quan t r i cong ty, ong Steve Riggio nhan d i n h ket qua nay co duoc la n h d ba ngudn luc: (1) Tinh hieu qua ciia h i n h thiic i n theo n h u cau, cho phep iihieu sach duoc xuat ban hon; (2) Su gia tang so luong cac nha xuat ban doc lap nhd; (3) Viec t u xuat ban. Ong cho rang: "Trong nhUng nam t d i , khai niem truyen thong ve viec xuat ban mot cuon sach se giam y nghia. Cac ca nhan se ngay cang sii dung Internet n h u giai doan dau ciia viec xuat ban tac pham ciia ho, cho d u do la sach, truyen ngan, nhiing tac pham dang viet, hay cac bai viet ve l i n h voic ho thong thao. NhUng noi dung tot nhat se duoc i n thanh sach. Toi rat t i n tudng ve trien vong ciia nganh sach bao v i tat ca cac phUdng thUc mdi va hieu qua trong budc xuat ban dau tien dang xuat hien va nhanh chong t r d nen tinh xao hon". Mot su khac biet l d n giUa phan dau va phan ciia dudng cung la cang x u d i xuong phan

duoi

dudi, ban

cang cd kha nang giU duoc cong viec/viec l a m hang ngay ciia niinh. Do la dieu tot. Su phan biet giUa nha san xuat "chuyen nghiep" va "nghiep du" dang m d dan va tren thuc te, cd the se khong con thich hop. Chiing ta san xuat khong chi nhung cai chiing ta duoc tra tien 146

Mot thยง he cac nha san xuiit moi de lam, ma ca nhiing cai chung ta m u o n lam. Ca hai cong viec do deu mang lai gia t r i . Hien tupng "cong dan l a m bao" cua Han Quoc, do trang bao t r e n mang OhmyNews k h d i x u d n g n a m 2000, la m o t m i n h chUng cu the. T r e n trang OhmyNews, k h o a n g 50 nha bao va nha b i e n tap chuyen nghiep theo ddi, bien tap va hoan chinh cac bai bao, ban t i n ciia h o n 40 nghin ngudi viet khong chuyen, n i cac hoc sinh pho' thong cho den cac giao sU. NhUng ngudi t u nguyen nay gUi khoang 150 den 200 bai viet m o i ngay, chiem den hon hai phan ba n p i dung bao ciia OhmyNews. Dd'i lai, hp nhan dupe m p t khoan t h u lao nhd: neu bai viet dupe dang tren trang nhat, chi can d mpt gdc nhd, tac gia bai viet cung nhan dupe khoang 20 dola. Tai sao hp l a m vay? Ong Oh Yeon Ho, ngudi sang lap trang web, cho rang "Ho dang viet nhUng bai bao de l a m thay dd'i the gidi, chU khong phai de k i e m tien". TU nhUng ngudi l a m p h i m cho den ngudi viet blog, cac nha san xuat bat dau khdi nghiep n i Phan

duoi

d u k h o n g m a y h i v p n g se k i n h doanh t h a n h cong nhung hp van cd the n a m dupe CP hpi. Hp san sang chap nhan nhieu r u i ro h d n v i hp khong co nhieu dieu de mat. Khong can phai x i n phep doi vdi mpt ke hoach lcinh doanh, tham chi khong can ca von. Ngay nay, cac cong cu sang tao kha re va t r i thUc dupe pho' bien rpng rai h d n chung ta tudng. Theo each n h i n nay, Cai dudi ddi cd the t r d thanh cupc t h i i thach su sang tao, m p t n d i de cac y tudng h i n h thanh va phat trien trudc k h i t r d t h a n h m p t h i n h thUc k i n h doanh. 147

CAl DUOI DAl NGHIEN CUU T I N H H U O N G : H O N D A O CO D O N Khong phai tat ca cac nha sang tao deu co chung mot dong l u c Con ngudi tao ra su vat vol nhieu ly do, tir muc dich the hien cho den tao uy tin. Dieu nay co tam quan trong trong viec lam Phan dudi luon bien doi hen tuc. Trong t h i trudng ky thuat so khong cd gidi han, tir iTunes cho den cac trang Web, cac san pham d phan dudi cd cd the nhanh chong t r d thanh san pham hit neu danh diing vao t h i hieu cong chiing. Viec t i m hieu cac dong co da dang ciia cac nha sang tao co tam quan trpng trong nhan thiic va khuyen k h i c h hp. Phat bieu tai mpt cupc h p i thao vao giiia nam 2005, Barry Diller, chii t i c h truyen thong danh tieng ciia cong ty IAC/InterActiveCorp, thiia nhan rang phuong thiic san xuat ngang hang k h a hap dan, nhung ong khong dong y v d i quan diem coi do la ngudn luc co kha nang thach thUc Hollywood. Ong t u t i n d u doan rang "nhUng ngudi cd tai nang se khong the b i thay the b d i 18 trieu con ngudi san xuat ra thU ma hp nghi la cd t i n h hap dan". Ong Diller da diing d diem nao? Neu ban coi "ngudi co nang luc" chi la nhUng ngudi cd mpt kha nang hien huu de tao ra nhiing san pham hit tren t h i trudng rpng, t h i Diller cd the diing. Nhung cd nhieu thU cung cd tinh sang tao hon cac tac pham hit ciia Hollywood, va ngudi cd the nam dupe CP h p i do lai cd the den tU nhieu ndi, bang nhieu con dudng. 148

Mot the he cac nha san xuSt moi VI d u n h u Akiva Schaffer, Jorma Taccone va Andy Samberg. Cho den nay, hp van thuoc n h o m ngudi to ra p h u hpp vdi tieu chi "tai nang" ciia Diller. Sau k h i tot nghiep dai hoc, ba ngudi ban than t h d i t r u n g hpc nay da c i i n g nhau d e n H o l l y w o o d . Ho chuyen den song chung d m p t ngoi nha l d n vdi gia thue re tien tren Dai Id Olympic va bat dau gpi ngoi nha la H d n dao Cd don. Sau do, hp co t i m each tham nhap vao nganh giai t r i dudi dang mpt n h o m hai. Mpt dien vien hai khong de gi dupe len truyen hinh tham chi n h u mpt nha van hai cung khd - con vdi mpt nhom m d i lap lai cang kho hon. Chac chan, bp ba nay da nhanh chong vupt qua tat ca nhiing t r d ngai thudng gap tren con dudng t i m viec lam d Hollywood. Tuy nhien, thay v i de m i n h r o i vao canh b i tU choi hen tuc, bp ba nay da dien kich Hdn dao Co don - ngay nay da t r d thanh ten chudng ttinh, chU khong chi la ten ngoi nha ciia hp - tren mang Internet. MUpn mpt so thiet b i video, nhom thiiy thii Hdn dao Cd don bat dau san xuat nhung doan video hai ngan va nhirng bai hat vui nhpn. Micah, em ciia Schaffer - t u van ky thuat va la mpt ngudi ling hp viec diing Internet - da tung cac doan clip nay len trang web thelonelyisland.com ciia hp nam 2001. NhUng cU dan H d n dao Co ddn k h d i dau vdi nhUng doan clip video white-boy

rap , dupe trinh dien vdi mpt 1

phong each hai tam thudng. Mpt trong nhUng doan clip 1

Co the xem doan phim tren tai dia chi: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LRZPRqk6x58 149

CAl DUOI DAI dau tien la ve "ka-blamo" (giong n h u "Ban da h o n Shannen Doherty") va nhUng thU khac ("Toi l a m nghe gom"). N h u mot thU phu du t h u hut su quan tam, doan video da lan truyen tren Internet. That ngac nhien, mot DJ ngudi Ha Lan da "nhao t r o n " doan video (ghep 1

chung v o l canh quay video khac), gop phan lam cho doan video nay t r d nen pho bien hon. Nhieu doan video khac da duoc t r o n lan va ngay cang cd nhieu ngudi ham m d h i n h thUc nay, nhom hai da thuc day x u hudng nay bang viec tung ra nhieu doan video cua hp vol su cho phep cua To chUc Creative Commons, cho phep ngudi x e m dupe t u do sir dung lai doan p h i m video v i muc dich sang tao. Chi trong vong vai nam, Hdn dao Co don da t r d nen "noi tieng tren Internet", dieu do ndi len rang hp co lupng khan gia ldn san sang danh thdi gian vao mang Internet hon la xem truyen hinh, lien nic theo doi nhung d i i n bien cua van hda mang. Vdi danh tieng tren mang, n h o m Dudes - n h u ngudi ham m d van gpi - da gianh dupe nhieu hpp dong viet kich ban va bieu dien hap dan hon. Tuy nhien, nhUng vd dien chinh ciia hp van tie'p nic dupe dua len mang. Doan p h i m dau tien ciia mpt loat doan p h i m hai dupe xem nhieu tren "Internet gid cao diem" cd nhan de la "Bu". Trang web thelonelyisland.com gidi thieu n h u sau: "NhUng thanh nien sanh dieu song d Malibu gpi 1

Disk-jockey: Ngudi chpn va choi cac dia nhac cho khan thinh gia qua dai phat thanh hoac true tiep nhu tai quan bar. 150

Mpt the h? cac nha san xu3t moi ten thanh pho la Bu v i neu dpc ten day d u ciia thanh pho t h i dai, ma n h u the t h i ban khong con la thanh nien niia". Khi su ham mp n h o m hai ngay cang tang, ten gpi tat a i a hp den tai ngoi sao Tina Fey a i a chuong t r i n h Trite tiep toi thit Bay' va ong bau bieu dien Lome Michaels. Giiia nam 2005, bp ba bay den Manhattan de tham gia buoi dien t h i i ciing vol mpt n h o m hai kich noi tieng nhat. Tat ca thanh vien ciia Dudes dupe dong y nhan viec ngay lap tUc. Thang 12 nam 2005, n h o m Hon dao Co don lam mpt doan p l u m white-boy rap khac de trinh chieu tren 5 M . . 2

Dupe long vao canh trong p h i m Chronicles

ofNarnia,

n h u d u doan, doan hai nay kha pha tap, bay ba va rat, rat buon c u d ! Ngay nay, nhom hai nay bieu dien ca tren truyen hinh, vao toi thU Bay theo n h u quang cao, do la thoi gian co nhieu khan gia quen thuoc (du dang giam) xem truyen hinh, chac chan da so hp da bat cuoi va nhanh chong quen nhiing gi vUa xem. Nhung m p t so ngudi da t h u lai v d hai vao may ghi dia DVD ciia hp va m p t so da nhan ra n h o m hai tai hoa nay dong t r o n g m p t doan long nhai p h i m

Narnia.

Vi the, hp da dua doan p h i m len mang tren mang. Sau k h i doan hai kich dupe phat tan qua cac dudng ket noi ciia ngudi ham mp, Hang NBC nhan ra trao l u u nay 1

Saturday Night Live (SNL): Chirong trinh hai kich 90 phut dtrpc truyen hinh tru"c tiep tai My tii 1975. Sartuday Night Live. 151

CAI DUOI DAI va dua doan hai cua n h o m vao trang web chinh thUc SNL va t h a m chi ca iTunes. Mot lan niia, anh hudng lan truyen cua doan video dupe tang len - va lan nay rpng Ion h o n bao gid het. Nha b i n h luan truyen thong Jeff Jarvis da mo ta anh hudng nay n h u sau: " 0 , t o i chua ning nghe thay ai khao nhau, b i n h luan hay thUa nhan viec cd ca mpt the he dang x e m SNL. Nhung dpt nhien, t o i nghe thay nhieu I d i don ve v d hai. Va khong phai v i hang trieu ngudi bat dau xem diing luc buoi bieu dien dang dien den doan gay cudi. Khong phai vay, nhiing loi don xuat hien la v i cong chiing bat dau phat tan doan p h i m t r o n g Narnia,

m p t doan p h i m r a t hai, t r e n mang

Internet va m p i ngudi da t r u y cap de xem". Dieu chac chan la nhiing dPt truy cap vao trang web SNL da tang gap 200 lan trong vong 2 tuan t i i k h i doan p h i m dupe phat tan tren mang. Cau chuyen ciia n h o m H d n dao Co don da diยงn ra t r p n ven. Nhiing ngudi b i n h thudng b i nganh giai t r i bd quen da sU dung mang va t r d nen nd'i tieng. Nganh giai t r i da thUc t i n h trudc hien tupng nay trong viec gay anh hudng t d i ldp khan gia khd t h u hut, do la the he tre d dp tuoi 20 va da phai hpp tac v d i nhiing con ngudi b i xem la tam thudng nay. Gidi tre da quan tam hon t d i chuong t r i n h hai tren truyen hinh, nhung do hp khong hay xem truyen h i n h nen cho den k h i n h o m Hon dao Co ddn quay lai vai hinh thvtc dien hai tren mang

(dupe mang ludi lien ket rpng l d n ciia ldp tre

khuech tnidng), nhom hai nay m d i thuc su t r d nen nd'i 152

Mot the he cac nha san xuat moi tieng. Do do, SNL, trudc kia b i cac cut dan tren mang coi thudng, dot nhien lai t r d nen than thien do nam bat dUdc sinh k h i ngam lan toa tren mang. Trudc kia, chuong t r i n h bieu dien thudng chon nhUng tai nang tU cac nha hat dia phuong i t tieng tam va dua vao doan kich. Ngay nay, ho co the t i m thay dien vien tai nang ngay tren mang. Bai hoc n i t ra tU cau chuyen nay la gi? Mot mat, nhUng bo loc trong nganh giai t r i da nhan ra sUc hut ciia n h o m H d n dao Co don va t i m each tiep can v d i n h o m Trong trudng hpp nay, co the cac bd loc da phat huy tac dung. Nhung neu ba chang trai vdi chiec may quay video trong tay dien t r d m o t each nhat nheo va dua doan phrm do len trang web ciia ho giong n h u "18 trieu ngudi san xuat ra thU ma ho nghi se kha hap dan" - n h u Diller m d ta m o t each xem thudng - t d i thuc su khong biet duoc dieu gi se xay ra. Su that la the he nhan tai m d i cd the se xuat hien tU 18 trieu ngudi dang t u lam ra san pham ciia ho - do la nhUng ngudi cd nhieu kha nang nhat trong viec cUu nganh dien anh va giai t r i trudc sU loi thdi ve san xuat. Cd the Diller noi diing. Cd the chi co mot vai ngudi viet dUOc k i c h ban p h i m truyen h i n h Nhirng

ngudi

ban

(Friends). NhUng hay n g h i xem cd bao nhieu ngudi co the tao ra n o i d u n g h a i k i c h hay, n h u doan p h i m Narnia,

va cd kha nang gay tieng vang vdi so lUdng

khan gia ngay cang nhieu tren mang - n o i ma cac san pham

ngach, chU khong phai cac san pham chinh, cd

vai t r d chi phoi. Hay n g h i x e m cd bao nhieu nhan tai 153

CAI DUOI DAI tiem an ngay nay co the nam dupe cd hoi t i m ra nhirng khan gia thuc su cua minh, nhd vao su pho cap cua Internet. Co the chung ta van can den sUc manh ciia co may san xuat Hollywood de lam ra nhirng bo p h i m da mau sac vdi chat lupng cao. Nhung ciing luc do, hang tram doan video duoc khan gia san xuat ciing co kha nang t h u hut m o t luong khan gia tudng t u . Su so sanh nay cd ve khap khieng n h u so sanh tao vdi cam - giUa mpt ben la nhUng thudng hieu k i n h doanh lau ddi vdi mpt ben la nhUng tay choi nghiep d u cd sd thich nhat thdi - nhung tren thuc te, ca hai deu canh tranh de gianh thdi gian va su chii y ciia mpt the he rihung ngudi xem thong thao Web. Neu hp dang xem mpt loai phim, hp se chang xem loai khac. Dieu Diller khong t i n h den do la ngay nay, nhu cau doi v d i cac bp p h i m hit da giam hPn so vdi n h u cau cac n p i dung co t i n h tap t r u n g va cd muc dich khong phai

danh cho m p i cong chung. Khan gia tiep tuc

giam quan tam doi vol cac bp p h i m va bang xep hang 40 bai hat hit, nhung lai dang quan tam t d i m p t loat cac ngh? si i t ten t u o i nhung than thiet va gan gui hon vdi m i n h . Vay, co den 99% blog khong t h u hut dupe lupng dpc gia nhieu hPn vai chuc ngudi t h i sao? Mpt phan t r a m nhd n h o i neu gop lai v d i nhau thanh so phan t r a m l d n hon t h i van t r d thanh con so l d n vdi hang nghin dpc gia. T u u trung lai, mpt phan t r a m do co the t h u h u t so lupng k h a n gia khong k e m cac hinh thUc truyen thong chii dao. Hang trieu ngudi k h i 154

Mpt the he cac nha san xuiit moi xem "video lan truyen" da the hien cam xuc giong n h u k h i khan gia xem cac chuong t r i n h bieu dien n o i tieng tren truyen h i n h . Vol cac tac gia t u xuat ban sach qua Lulu, ban than cac san pham thudng khong thu dupe nhieu loi nhuan, nhung do khong phai la van de. Cai chinh la san pham do ra ddi va co t h i phan trong long dpc gia. Day khong phai la mpt su sang tao cua linh vuc kinh doanh truyen thong, nhung lai canh tranh vol linh vuc do. Ngay nay, so ngudi san xuat nhieu hon nhUng tai nang dupe t i m kiem trong nganh truyen thong - lan song sang tao ciia gidi b i n h dan se ap dao nhUng ngudi chuyen trach doc ban thao kich ban va ngudi nghe thU bang ghi am ciia bat ky m p t phong t h u hay hang p h i m co thuong hieu nao. V i cong cu san xuat dupe pho' bien rdng rai, sd lupng nha san xuat ngay cang tang theo cap so nhan, khd cd the ngan can nhiing ngudi co y chi va k y nang trong viยงc tao ra nhUng san p h a m n h u vay.

CAU TRUC T H A M GIA Trudc kia, chung ta da tttng gap nhieu van de tuong tU n h u cau chuyen nay. Cuoi nhUng n a m 70, dau nhUng nam 80, su phoi am ciia ghita dien, su xuat hien ciia cac may ghi am da nang gia re va h i n h tupng dien liinh ciia ban nhac Sex Pistols da dem lai co hpi de the he tre, d u khong dupe dao tao ve am nhac nhung cd tai nang hoac dupe ngudi khac d d dau, ro the bat dau

155

CAI DUOI DAI lap ban nhac va t h u am. K h i dong nhac rock manh (punk rock) dupe bieu dien tren san khau, do la mot kham pha choang ngpp doi vdi the he tre dang hda m i n h vao khong k h i san nhay. Quan sat mpt so ngudi cung dp n i o i vdi m i n h vUa choi nhac cudng nhiet vUa nhay tren san khau, ai do co the thdt len: "tdi cung lam dupe nhu

vay".

Da cd luc con ngUdl quan niem de t r d thanh mpt nhac si, each tot nhat la hpc tap nhung nghe si bac thay. Vi the, ban can bat dau v d i viec chep nhac, doc nhac va cd the den trudng hpc nhac. Day la quan niem mang tinh cung nhac: lam tung budc theo quy ttinh, choi cac ban nhac k i n h dien, v i do la dieu m p i ngudi muon (khong ai muon nghe ban choi ban nhac k i n h dien mot each d d ec). Hay l a m

diing.

NhUng nhac punk rock da thay ddi cupc chPi. Nhac punk rock noi: "Tot roi, ban cd dan ghita, nhung ban khong

can choi nhac dung each. Ban cd the choi sai

each! Mpt nhac si tai nang cung the thoi, dieu quan trpng la ban co dieu gi do de the hien". Qua nhac punk rock, chung ta thay su xuat hien ciia nhung gipng ca mdi, am thanh mdi, manh liet va mpt cam xuc pha each chi cd the den tu ben ngoai he thong quy tac va chuan muc. That truyen cam k h i thay nhUng ngudi d do, d u khong tai gidi h o n ban, dang v u i ve, dupe ngudng mp va lam nhirng dieu la thudng. Xet ve mat k i n h te, dong nhac punk rock da ha thap nhirng rao can ddi vdi sang tao.

156

Mot the he cac nha san xuat moi Ranh gidi truyen thong giiia ngudi sang tac va ngudi sii dung dang b i l u m d . Ngudi sii dung ciing cd the la ngudi san xuat. Mot so ngudi da sang tao, d i len tU ban tay trang; m o t so ngudi bien tau tac pham ciia ngudi khac, hda t r d n chung mot each t u do hoac day y tudng. Trong the gidi blog, chiing ta n d i ve "nhiing khan gia cii" - nhUng doc gia da chuyen tU v i t r i ngudi sU dung thu dong thanh ngudi san xuat chii dong, neu nhan xet va gan ket blog t r d lai v d i dong truyen thong chii dao. Mot so ngudi khac a i n g dong gop vao tien t r i n h nay thong qua viec khuech truong thong t i n qua mang Internet ciia minh, lam mot viec tuong t u n h u cong viec ciia nhUng DJ dai phat thanh, nha phe b i n h tap chi am nhac va nha tiep t h i . Ket qua t h u dude ban dau se giong n h u dieu ma T i m O'Reilly, m o t nha xuat ban sach va la nha tien t r i ciia the he DIY ( t u l a m lay), goi la "Cau t n i c tham d u mdi". Mpt n h o m sinh vien Dai hpc Cahfornia d Berkeley, da m d ta cau t n i c nay v o l m p t lupc do sang tao m d i , n h u h i n h trang sau:

157

CAI DUOI DAl Cau true tham dir

Qua luoc do co the thay, cau true nganh v o n ciing nhac theo h i n h thiic cac chuyen gia san xuat va nhiing ngudi khong chuyen sii dung, nay da thay ddi thanh t h j trudng hai chieu, m o i ngudi cd the ddi v i t r i ciia nhau bat c i i n o i dau, bat c i i luc nao. Do la dau hieu ciia su thay d d i sau sac duoc thiic day bang viec phd bien hda cong cu san xuat va phan phoi.

158

NHtTNG T H I TRLfClNG M d i 1AM THfi NAO Bi TAO RA M0T TAP HOP cO T H E D A P U N G T U D A U D E N D U O I 1

Nam 1982, m o t n g u d i b a n sach co ten Richard Weatherford nhan thay rang may tinh ca nhan k h i m o i ra doi luc do co the tao ra mpt cupc each mang doi vol nganh l a n h doanh sach cu. Co hang ngan hieu sach cii tren khap nude My v o l danh muc sach khac nhau. Duong n h u ban co the t i m dupe bat cU cuon sach nao t r o n g so d o , n h u n g d o m a t i m d u p e cho r a . Weatherford cho rang van de n a m d khau thong t i n , mpt dieu ma may t i n h co the giai quyet dupe, do do ong da viet mpt ke hoach k i n h doanh ve viec xay dung mpt co sd dU lieu cho cac nha ban sach cii. Ong gpi cP so" dU heu nay la Interloc, viet tat cua tU Interlocutor (ngudi d o i thoai), m p t each noi bong bay ve "ngudi m o i gidi" hay "co" sach.

159

CAl DUOI DAI Weatherford da d i trudc t h d i dai vai thap nien va khong nhan dupe ung hp ve tai chinh cho d u an cua m i n h . Tuy nhien, nam 1991, ong dupe mot hang dich vp ve tap chi va sach la Faxon thue de cUu cong ty BookQuest cung n i n g thuc hien y tudng n h u the. DU an do khong co hieu qua v i van d i sdm hon t h d i dai mpt thap nien, nhung chi i t ciing nhan dupe ngudn tai t r p . V d i 50 n g h i n d o l a c u a cac n h a b a n sach, Weatherford da bat dau d u an Interloc nam 1993, trudc k h i cac trang web ra ddi. Day la mpt mang khep kin, cho phep cac nha ban sach t i m trong danh muc ciia nhUng ciia hang khac nhirng cuon sach ma khach hang can. No tao ra mpt tieu chuan ve dU Ueu (ma ngay nay van dupe diing) va phan m e m cho phep ngudi ban chuyen dU Ueu danh muc sach qua mpt mo-dem. Njim 1996, mang nay dupe phat trien thanh trang Web. Nam 1997, Marty Manley, m p t cuu lanh dao cong doan, co van ciia tap doan McKinsey va T r p ly Bp trudng Lao dpng ciia chinh quyen Clinton, t i m kiem mpt cuon sach khong con dupe i n nUa. Ong ta t i m thay Interloc va ngay lap tUc b i thuyet phuc b d i tiem nang ciia co sd dU heu giau cd ve sach nay trong t h i trudng sach. Ong t i m k i e m Weatherford va de nghi sap nhap Interloc thanh m p t cong ty mdi, n h a m thoa man ca khach hang sach va ngudi ban sach; cudi n a m do, hp thanh lap cong ty Alibris tai que huong ciia Manley d Berkeley. Chiing ta hay diing lai mpt chut de t i m hieu ve t h i trudng sach cu. Trong phan l d n cac thap nien gan day, 160

NhOng thj trudng moi t h i ixudng nay gom hai t h i trudng hoan toan khac biet. Khoang hai phan ba t h i trudng nay la sach giao khoa an nen lam ra dupe dat d gan cac ky tuc xa dai hpc, mpt phan ba dupe dat trong khoang 12 nghin hieu sach cu nho tren toan nude My co so khach hang khong nhieu. Ban sach giao khoa cu la nganh k i n h doanh co hieu qua - hang nam co hang trieu sinh vien mua va ban lai sach giao khoa v o n chi dupe dung trong m p t hpc ky. So lupng cac bp sach dupe ban lai tren p h u thuoc vao nhirng giao t r i n h ciia cac m o n hpc bat budc, gia ca phu thuoc vao canh tranh giUa cac hieu sach va s6 lupng sach dupe cung cap 2 lan mpt nam. NhUng nha xuat ban sach khong lo ngai dieu nay lam b d i v i dieu do cd nghia la hp co the nang gia cao hon doi v d i sach m d i do khach hang biet cd the ban lai sach cu. ThUc ra, viec nay trong k i n h te hpc gidng vdi viec thue h o n la mua ban. Thong thudng, cac ciia hang mua lai sach v d i gia bang mpt niia va ban lai v d i gia bang 75%. Dua tren viec sinh vien mua hay thue lai sach cu ma "gia thue" dao dpng n i mpt niia den mpt phan t u gia sach. Nguyen tac nay hoat dpng co hieu qua t d i mUc hien nay, nganh k i n h doanh sach cu d My t h u dupe 1,7 t i dola, chiem 16% doanh t h u ciia tat ca cac hieu sach dai hpc. De han che viec mua d i ban lai mai sach giao khoa - dieu se anh hudng den doanh t h u sach mdi, cac nha xuat ban da tai ban chung vdi so trang b i thay ddi (do do sach cu khong the dung dupe). Dieu nay l a m t h i t r u d n g sach cu l u o n l u o n dupe thay m d i . 161

CAl DUOI DAI Tuy rihien, doi v d i t h i trudng sach cu khong phai la sach giao khoa, hiÂŁu qua giam d i ro ret. Mpt hieu sach cu thudng chi cd the mua lai sach tU nhUng khach hang dia phuong v d i so lupng han che. Do do, Ufa chpn tai cac t h i trudng nay tUPng doi ngau nhien, phan anh gu ciia ngudi chpn va sU may man ciia viec t i m kiem hdn so v d i tong the t h i trudng sach. D o i v d i khach hang quen ciia cac cUa hang nay, su khan niem chinh la net hap dan, tao ra cam giac k h a m pha va phieu l u u . Nhung neu ban m u o n t i m mot cuon sach dac thu, qua t r i n h t i m kiem trong cUa hang cd the chang mang lai ket qua gi. Trong k i n h te hpc, l p i the ciia t h i trudng sach giao khoa la kha nang thanh khoan ldn. Cd nhieu ngudi ban va m u a m p t chiing loai san p h a m tUPng d o i hep den n o i kha nang t i m thay cuon sach mong m u o n vdi gia hpp ly la rat cao. Ngupc lai, han che ciia t h i trudng sach p h i giao khoa la kha nang thanh khoan thap khong cd nhieu ngudi ban lan ngudi m u a trong mpt tap hpp da dang chiing loai sach. Ket qua ciia viec cd qua nhieu san p h a m va qua i t n g u d i t h a m gia la kha nang t i m thay san p h a m ban m o n g m u o n rat thap. Do do, hau het khach hang hang khong bao gid m u o n den m p t hieu sach cu k h i hp m u o n m u a mpt cuon sach nao do. Weatherford nhan ra rang m p t ciia hang sach cu khong cd y nghia nhieu nhung ket hpp lai (vdi viec tat ca cac cUa hang sach cu dupe lien ket v d i nhau), day se la mpt t h i trudng ldn. Td'ng so dau sach ciia khoang 162

Nhung thi truong moi 12 nghin cua hang sach cu l d n hdn bat a i t h u vien nao tren the gidi. K h i m o i a i a hang sach dua d i i lieu len mang, Alibris se td'ng hop lai, roi dua tat ca ten sach cu va m d i t d i cac trang mang ban sach sii dung d i i Ueu AUbris. Cong ty nay cung cap du" Ueu cho cac nha ban sach tren mang l d n n h u A m a z o n hay bn.com, nhiing trang mang dUa len mang ca ten sach m d i va sach a i dong thdi, qua do khai thac dupe ca nhiing loai sach "khong con dUOc i n " , dong t h d i dUa ra sii liia chpn v d i gia re hon thay the sach m d i . Bang each t h u hut hang trieu khach hang t h a m gia t h i trudng sach cii, cong ty nay lai khuyen khich cac ciia hang sach cii trong viec dua du* Ueu len mang va do do lai lam AUbris co nhieu sach trong danh muc hon. Day la chu ky xoay 6c truyen thong va ket qua da l a m tang manh doanh t h u ban sach cu. Theo N h o m Nghien ciiu ve Sach, sau nhieu nam t r i tre, t h i trudng sach t r i gia 2,2 t i dola hien tang len hai con so, rieng t h j trudng sach tren mang t r i gia 600 trieu dola tang 30%/nam.

T R O T H A N H N H A T A P HOP AUbris la mpt "Nha tap hop" Cai dudi ddi - mpt cong ty hay dich v u tap hpp so liipng khong lo hang hda va giup khach hang tiep can chiing m p t each de dang. Dieu m a cong ty nay da l a m trong qua t r i n h ket n o i danh sach a i a hang ngan ciia hang ban sach cii la s i i

163

CAI BUOI DAl dung thong t i n de tao ra mpt t h i trudng co sUc thanh khoan thay cho t h i trudng khong co t i n h thanh khoan trudc kia. V d i so lupng danh sach va khach hang ldn, nd da khai thac dupe gia t r i ngam cua t h i trudng sach cu. H o n nUa, cong ty nay chi phai chi p h i rat thap so vdi chi p h i dang ra phai sU dung de xay dung danh muc sach tU dau, do da giao cho cac a i a hang sach t u thuc hien phan l d n cong viec dua len mang danh muc sach ciia minh. Do la phep toan ciia Cai duoi ddi: chi p h i ban hang cang thap t h i so lupng ban hang cang cao. Theo do, nhung nha tap hpp chinh la luc lupng thU hai trong viec pho bien hda khau phan phoi. Chung l a m giam chi p h i tham gia t h i trudng, cho phep ngay cang nhieu san pham vupt qua rao can de t i m den khach hang. Co the chi ra hang ngan v i d u khac va sau day chi la vai v i d u cu the. Trang mang Google chinh la nha tap hpp Cai dudi ddi quang cao (cac nha quang cao va xuat b a n vUa va n h d k i e m t i e n tU quang cao). Rhapsody va iTunes la nha tap hpp Cai dudi ddi am nhac. Netflix la nha tap hpp Cai dudi ddi p h i m anh. EBay la nha tap hpp Cai dudi ddi hang hda, Cai dudi ddi doanh nhan - nhirng ngudi ban hang cho hang trieu ngudi m u o n ban nhirng m o n qua sinh nhat ma hp khong m u o n diing. Cai dudi ddi khong chi dUng lai trong l i n h vuc ban hang. Phan m e m Bloglines tap hpp " t i n " tren mang theo chuan RSS cung dupe coi la "Nha tap hpp" v i da loi keo va thudng xuyen dat hang tren mang, trong do 164

NhOng thj truong mdi co hang trieu blog. Wikipedia la m o t nha tap hop cua Cai duoi ddi trong l i n h vuc t r i thUc va railing ngudi sd hUu t r i thUc. Danh sach v i d u tiep nic keo dai, bao gom m o i thU, n i y tudng den con ngudi. Trong chuong nay, t d i se tap trung vao nhUng Nha tap hop trong l i n h vuc k i n h doanh. Co the chia thanh nam loai co ban sau: 1. Hang hda vat the (vi d u Amazon, eBay) 2. Hang hoa so (vi d u iTunes, iFilm) 3. Quang cao/dich v u (vi d u Google, Craigslist) 4. Thong t i n (vi d u Google, Wikipedia) 5. Cong dong/khach hang sang tao n o i dung (vi d u MySpace, Bloglines) Moi loai tren cd the bao gom cac cong ty ldn den cong ty-chi-cd-mpt-ngudi. Mpt blog tap hpp t i n nic va thong t i n ve m p t chii de giong n h u cong viec may va cung la mpt nha tap hpp, n h u Yahoo! Mpt so nha tap hpp muon bao toan bp m p t nganh nghe, v i du Netflix (phim anh) hay iTunes (am nhac), trong k h i cac Nha tap hop khac chi tap t r u n g vao thi trudng

ngach,

n h u dich v u tap

trung vao d i n h dang SEC hay am nhac so. N h i e u n h a tap h p p hoat d p n g da n g a n h nghe. A m a z o n tap hpp ca hang hda vat the (tU dien n i den do diing trong nha bep) va hang hda so ( n i sach dien n i den p h l n m e m co the tai xuong dupe). Google tap h p p t h o n g t i n , quang cao va hang hda so (Google Video). MySpace, trang mang rat pho' bien d o i v d i cac ban nhac va ngudi ham mp, tap hpp ca n p i dung (hang 165

CAI DUOI DAl trieu ban nhac mien phi) va thinh gia, va theo do tao ra nhieu n o i dung ve cac ban nhac du6i dang 161 gi6i thieu, t i n tUc va cam xtic ciia ngudi h a m mo.

LOAI PHA TRON SO VOI LOAI KY THUAT SO DON

THUAN

Chiing ta hay bat dau bang each so sanh linh vuc t h i i nhat la ban hang hoa vat the tren mang va linh vuc thii hai, ban hang hoa so tren mang. Ca hai deu 1

tao ra Cai dudi ddi, nhung Cai dudi thU hai ddi hon Cai dudi thU ohat. Cac nha b a n hang hoa vat the t r e n m a n g n h u BestBuy.com va Netflix co the dua ra cac mat hang l d n h o n hang t r a m lain so v d i cac ciia hang truyen thong, n h u n g cu6i cung se den gidi h a n cuoi. Ngupc lai, cac cong ty ban hang hoa so, tU cac album den cac bai hat tren iTunes hay chuong t r i n h truyen hinh hoac ban nhac k h o n g chuyen t r e n Google Video, ve mat l y thuyet, co the keo dai vo tan, bao g o m tat ca m o i thU cd the tao ra (ba l i n h vuc khac ciia Nha tap hop la dich v u , san p h a m do khach hang sang tao va cpng dong deu dua tren thong t i n so, nen ciing co cung dac d i e m n h u tren). Chung t o i goi loai thU nhat la mpt ngudi ban le da dung b d i v i nd bao gom ca hai h i n h thUc la dat hang qua b u u dien (vat ly) va Internet (so). Trong v i d u nay, hang hda dupe phan p h o i qua b u u dien hoac chuyen 166

NhOng thi truong mdi phat nhanh va hieu qua co dupe la do chi p h i qua chudi cung giam va kha nang cung cap khong han che cac mat hang cung vol nhirng l o i the va thong t i n khac do mang cung cap. Hay lay cong viec k i n h doanh dia CD cua Amazon lam v i du. Trang mang nay co 1,7 trieu tufa dia CD. Cong v o l v d i so lupng CD ciia cac cUa hang, trang mang nay cung cap gan 2 trieu dia. Mac d u vay, so lupng CD van la hUu han. Bdi v i dia CD la mat hang vat the. Phai cd ai do chUa mat hang nay d dau do trudc k h i chung dupe ban ra. Do vay, van cd r u i ro nhat d i n h trong danh muc hang hoa cua Amazon, nghia la van cd the cd mat hang khong mua duoc theo danh sach ciia Amazon. Tat nhien, m p t so dia ciing se khong bao gid t i m dupe khach hang. Them vao do, chi p h i van chuyen cung dupe cpng vao m o i giao dich nen thuc te, gia ca khong bao gid giam xuong d u d l 3 dola. Quan trpng hon, cac bai hat trong m p t dia CD khong the ban theo tung bai: phai ban toan bp CD hoac khong ban. Rd rang, each thUc ban dia CD cua A m a z o n tot h o n nhieu so v o l m o i a i a hang don le va dieu do ly giai tai sao trang mang nay cd the tang lua chpn hPn 100 nghin lan so v o l m o i a i a hang. Dieu do giup Amazon tien xa h o n ve phan

dudi a i a Cai duoi ddi. Nhung

khong the den tan a i n g dupe. Theo SNOCAP, mpt d j c h v u quan ly ban quyen va giay phep so d o i v d i viec sii dung cac mang l u d i chuyen dU heu peer-to-peer

t h i cd

it nhat 9 trieu bai hat dupe chuyen m d i ngay. Dieu do 167

CAl DUOI DAl tuong duong v o i 1 trieu album, do la chua ke cac ban nhac thoi ky trudc k h i CD ra ddi se dupe chuyen thanh dang so trong tuong lai. Them vao do, co hang nghin ban nhac va nhUng ngudi t h u thanh nghiep d u san xuat va phan p h o i am nhac nhung khong ra CD. Cpng lai, so lupng ban nhac ngoai CD de dang vuot 1 trieu album nUa. Do do Amazon, mac d u cd tat ca l p i the ve k i n h te, co the chi chiem mot p h l n t u phan Cai duoi ddi trong l i n h vuc am nhac (co the v i the ma cong ty nay da dua ra dich v u tai nhac MP3 vao n a m 2007). Cach duy nhat de m d rpng phan sau ciia Cai duoi ddi, tU cac san p h a m hit den cac ban nhac nghiep d u cua cua qua khU va hien tai, la tU bd cong nghe t h u tU t i n h va chuyen sang cong nghe so. Do la cau tnic ciia nha tap hpp thU hai, nha ban le k y thuat so. Trong m d hinh ky thuat so don thuan, m o i san pham don gian la m p t t h u muc chUa CP sd dU Ueu, hau n h u cd chi p h i khong dang ke. Chi p h i phan p h o i chi don gian la cac bit bang thong rpng cd chi p h i ngay cang giam xuong. Chua het, nhUng nha ban le k y thuat so cd the lua chpn each ban san pham le (99% yeu cau tai tai mang iTunes) hoac theo dich v u (truy cap khong han che cac ban nhac tai Rhapsody). NhUng dich v u so thuong mai do deu la l p i the ciia Amazon, cpng vol mpt l p i the khac la chi p h i phan phoi hang thong qua mang bang thong rpng hau n h u bang khong. Day la each thUc de dat dupe chen thanh trong ban le - tUc la chi p h i bang khong d o i v d i san xuat va phan p h o i san p h a m tiep theo. Do viec tao them t h u 168

Nhung thj truong mdi muc d t i lieu va vai megabites trong may chu hau n h u co chi p h i bang khong nen cac nha ban le khong co bat cU lo ngai nao trong viec tang them san pham. Mot ngay nao do, (khi vuot qua vat can la ban quyen va hop dong thuong mai), viec tren se tat yeu dien ra. Theo do, su khac biet giUa nha ban le truyen thong va ban le Cai dudi ddi khong he don gian. Diing ra do la su tien trien n i mo h i n h dua tren bang n i tinh, den mo h u i h pha t r o n giUa bang n i t i n h va ky thuat so, den mo h i n h ly tuong chi gom ky thuat so. Cac catalog ky thuat so ciia hang hoa vat the lam giam chi p h i phan p h o i giup tien xa h o n ve phan sau ciia Cai dudi. Phan con lai co hieu qua cao h o n thuoc ve mo h i n h phan p h o i k y thuat so. Ca hai deu thuoc mo h i n h Cai dudi ddi, nhung cai sau dai h o n cai trudc.

Ba biroc de' dat du-gc kho hang da dang vd t i n Oilm cat kinh tÂŁ

c CO o Q

LNhabanle thong thuong: Nguonglol nh<4n dfii vdi cua hang (nhu i Tower Records)

2. Nha ban le da hinh: Nguong lot nhu^n doi vol cua hang khong phai tra chi phi ban le (nhuAmazon.com) San phim 169

3. Nha ban le ky thu^t s6 don thuan: NguOng loi nhuan C6i vol cua hang khfing co hang hoa v|tt thi (nhu Rhapsody).

CAI DUOI DAI

T I M HIEU P H A N SAU C U A C A I D U O I Chung ta hay trd lai cau chuyen ciia Amazon de tim niem xem mo M n h nay hoat dong tren thuc te n h u the nao. A m a z o n bao gom ca hai mo hinh: pha t r o n va ky thuat so; mo h i n h sau duoc phat trien trong qua t r i n h k h a m pha each l a m m d i de giam chi p h i va giiip d i xa hon ve phan sau ciia Cai duoi. Budc 1, n h u chiing ta da biยงt, la danh gia ban dau theo Bezos rang: thuong mai dien n i co l o i the co ban ciia m p t trung tam phan p h o i dich v u theo don dat hang va l p i the ciia each ban le true tiep theo catalog ma k h o n g phai tra chi p h i i n va giii d i hang trieu catalog. Do la A m a z o n 1.0. Budc tiep theo la giam thieu r u i ro ciia kho hang bang each loai bd chi p h i doi vdi nhiing mat hang trong kho ciia cong ty. A m a z o n thuc hien dieu do v d i chuong t r i n h k y giii hang hda. A m a z o n bat dau chuong t r i n h nay t r o n g l i n h vuc ban sach. Chuong t r i n h Loi the Amazon (Amazon Advantage) cung cap cho cac tac gia mpt de an ma m d i nghe cd ve n h u kha vd ly: Tra p h i hang n a m la 29,95 dola, chuyen sach ciia ban den Amazon, k h i sach dupe ban, cong ty t h u 55% doanh so. Tai sao m p t tac gia lai chap thuan? Bdi v i chuong t r i n h k y giii tien them m p t budc trong viec khac phuc t r i hoan va t i n h bat trac ciia don dat hang dac biet.

170

Nhung thi truong moi Noi ngan gon, no bao dam rang cuon sach cua tac gia se l u o n co va co the de dang tiep can ma khong phai cau x i n nha xuat ban nao ve dieu do. Budc thU ba trong viec giam chi p h i la m d rdng danh muc ao bang each k h a i thac cac nha ban le l d n va cac m d i quan he cua hp v d i cac nha san xuat va phan phoi. Bang each cung cap cong nghe thuong m a i dien n i t i n h v i cho cac nha ban le l d n n h u Toys "R" Us va Target, A m a z o n da tao ra co h p i ban hang cho cac doi tac do va de cho ho x i i l y hoan toan van de kho hang. Vol m o i khach hang mdi, Amazon them vao danh sach a i a m i n h hang trieu mat hang. Tat nhien la khong phai tat ca cac nha ban le l d n deu san sang trao tuong lai a i a hp vao tay ciia Amazon va m p t so thudng duoc yeu cau t r d thanh nha cung cap dpc quyen trong l i n h vuc cua hp ve do dung gia dinh hay dd choi. Mac d u dieu nay han che kha nang m d rpng m d hinh Amazon song ve nguyen tac, viec t r d thanh m p t Nha tap hpp-cho-thue cho phep A m a z o n hudng thanh qua a i a mpt hoat dpng dich v u ma khong phai thuc hien b i t cU nghia v u gi. N h u eBay cd the chUng m i n h , ban phan m e m va may chii de t h u mpt khoan p h i co the la hoat dpng co l p i nhuan cao nhat. Tuy nhien, sU tang trudng a i a mo h i n h danh muc ao hda ra khong phai den n i cac doi tac l d n ma la cac doi tac nhd. Nam 1999, A m a z o n thuc hien chUPng t r i n h "Marketplace" m d r p n g viec ban hang sang ca lanh dia a i a eBay bang each cung cap dich v u cho tat ca khach hang. Cac nha ban le va phan p h o i l d n nhd, 171

CAl DUOI DAI tir cac ciia hang d i n cac ca the, co the ban hang tren mang Amazon.com giong nhir san p h a m ciia chinh Amazon - va khach hang co the mua bat c i i san pham nao m o t each de dang. Cuoi n a m 2004, Amazon co hon 100 nghin dia chi ban Marketplace va doanh so t h u dupe tii ben thU ba nay chiem gan 40% tong doanh so ciia cong ty. Su n o i len nhanh chong ciia mo l u n h thuong mai ao nay da day kho hang hoa truyen th6ng t r d lai phan dau. Chua het, nhiing nha ban le theo day chuyen n h u Best Buy phai phan p h o i cac mat hang n h u may chup anh ky thuat so tai tat ca cac ciia hang ciia no voi phong doan nhat d i n h ve n h u cau 6" dau va den mUc nao. Khong can phai noi, khach hang va san pham phai d ciing dia diem - cung va cau phai gap nhau tai cac ciia hang. Tuy nhien, chac chan nha ban le se doan sai, i t nhat la sai mpt phan, va se co noi het hang trong k h i n o i khac lai thUa hang. Vdi m d h i n h phan p h o i hang hda Marketplace ciia Amazon, san p h a m l u o n co san sang tren toan quoc va dupe sap xep va giao ban cung nhau tai mpt dia diem trung tam - do la trang mang ciia Amazon. Sau do, k h i khach hang yeu cau, san pham dupe dong goi va chuyen thang t d i khach hang b d i cac nha ban le. Giong n h u cac nha ban le theo chuoi, Amazon cung ket n o i va tap t r u n g hda chuoi cung, nhung u u diem ciia m d h i n h nay la kho hang va khach hang khong nhat thiet d cung m p t dia diem. Dieu nay lai tao dieu kien de dang hon cho cung va cau gap nhau. Tham 172

NhOng thj trudng mdi chi neu chung khong gap nhau, Amazon ciing khong phai tra chi p h i ma ben thu" ba phai chiu. Khi chuong trinh nay tiep tuc, Amazon tiep can ngay cang gan hon viec pha bo su dpc quyen ciia toan bp gia de hang. Cong ty khong can phai d u doan trudc xem 6" dau co n h u cau, cung khong can phai doan xem n h u cau l d n den dau. Tat ca r u i ro ciia chuong t r i n h Marketplace dupe chuyen cho he thong cac nha ban le nho, nhiing ngudi phai dua ra quyet dinh ciia hp dua tren t i n h toan xem can phai k i n h doanh cai gi (Chiing ta se thao luan them ve su dpc quyen ciia kho hang trong phan "Cai dau Ngan").

KHO HANG THEO YEU CAU Kho hang hda ao la each tiep can mdi trong viec kham pha Cai duoi, nhung viec loai bo tat ca kho hang vat ly cd the giup kham pha phan dai hon ciia no. Budc tiep theo ciia A m a z o n la t i m each tiep can gan hon tdi coi niet ban bang each xay dung m d h i n h l u u kho dudi dang so cho den k h i hang hda duoc phan phoi. Mpt trong nhUng van de trong k i n h doanh sach la rat nhieu sach chi ban dupe m p t hay hai quyen/nam. N h i n chung, nhUng dau sach ban dupe m u d i quyen cung khong the t r u nd'i. Ngay ca k h i chi p h i chUa sach chi la 1 dola cho den k h i ban dupe (giU sach trong vong 1 nam), ngudi ban sach ciing phai dat van de lieu cd tiep tuc giU sach nhung chi ban dupe vdi so lupng i t 173

CAI DUOI DAI hay khong. Dieu ma ngudi ban le mong m u o n la co duqic mot mo hinh lanh te hieu qua doi vol nhung quyen sach chi ban dupe 1 ban/nam. Dieu do co nghia la phai day p h i hru kho xuong gan bang khong. Giai phap cua Amazon la in-theo-yeu-cau. Sach dupe l u u d dang du lieu so cho den k h i dupe dat mua, k h i do chung dupe i n bang may i n laser va trong giong n h u nhirng quyen sach b i n h thudng. Do chi phai l u u d dang dvt heu so trudc k h i dupe i n ra nen chi p h i hoan toan tuong Ung vdi l o i nhuan. Ndi theo each khac, chi p h i san xuat va l u u kho cua nhirng cuon sach in-theoyeu-cau khong dUOc mua chi bang khong. Hieu qua k i n h te cua m d h i n h nay cao den mire m o t ngay nao do chiing ta co the ban bat cir quyen sach nao da tung dUOc xuat ban. Neu ban la ngudi ban sach, ban se khong ban tam ve loai sach va khong can chUa san sach bdi v i chi p h i se gan n h u bang khong. Do la mo h i n h ly tudng. Thuc te hien nay la hau het sach ban chay dupe i n nhieu trong kho hang va sach in so lupng i t chi dUdc i n vai t r a m quyen. Tuy nhien, viec giam chi p h i do tien bd ciia cong nghe se bien cac con so do thanh con so ly tudng la mpt ban i n cho mpt cuon sach. A m a z o n da bat dau trien khai may i n cong nghiep trong kho hang ciia cong ty. Vao giUa nam 2005, cong ty da m d rdng manh me nang luc bang each sap nhap vdi BookSurge, m p t cong ty hang dau in-theo-yeu-cau. Sau do vai thang, cong ty da ap dung cong nghe nay sang l i n h v u c p h i m a n h bang each m u a cong ty 174

Nhung thj truong moi CustomFlix, m o t cong ty san xuat dia DVD-theo-yeucau. Gio day, A m a z o n co the duy t r i kho hang ma 1

khong can khoang khong vol chi p h i bang khong: sach va p h i m anh dupe l u u t n i dudi dang tep du" lieu cho den k h i chiing dupe dat mua. Thuc ra, A m a z o n khong phai la cong ty phat m i n h ra khai niem in-theo-yeu-cau. Day la giac m o n i lau trong nganh i n sach, nhung cho den gan day, in-theoyeu-cau van chUa vuot qua dupe rao can ve ky thuat va k i n h te. That ngac nhien la viec i n mot quyen sach bia m e m dep lai khong he kho. T n i k h i ban co chuyen m o n (phan biet cac trang co anh ben trong cuon sach), ban se khong the phan biet dupe mpt cuon sach m d i mua t i i A m a z o n la do nha xuat ban an hanh hay do m p t may i n laser tai m p t t r o n g cac kho hang ciia Amazon Bat chap nhiing u u the ve k i n h te n h u tren, nganh cong nghiep i n an con lau mdi chuyen ddi han sang mo hinh in-theo-yeu-cau. In theo kieu truyen thong dUdc coi la re hon nhieu do sd lupng in ldn. Chi phi chuyen mpt cuon sach sang dang dU lieu sd theo mau in-theo-yeucau van con cao. N h u tdi da viet, in-theo-yeu-cau chi dap Ung dupe mpt sd k h d giay, do do sach cd khd to hoac nhd hdn can phai dupe thiet ke va dinh dang lai. 6" day, can phai giai quyet dupe van de ban quyen. Vdi sach cii hdn, can phai dupe sU cho phep ciia tac gia. Tuy nhien, nhieu tac gia lo ngai rang gia sach in-theo-yeucau (cao hon vai dola so v d i i n truyen thong) se l a m g i a m sd lupng ban, do do hp khong chap nhan. 175

CAI DUOI DAI Tuy nhien, tiem nang cua mo hinh in-theo-yeu-cau la rat Ion. Chi p h i Ion nhat doi vol nha xuat ban la chi p h i tra lai sach n i cac ciia hang ban sach, m o t dieu duoc chap nhan hien nhien trong nganh xuat ban. Ly do cac cUa hang sach yeu cau cao hon la do hp m u o n cUa hang se khong b i thieu sach va chi p h i i n thUa lai do nha xuat ban chiu. NhUng neu cac a i a hang sach biet rang nhu cau ciia hp co the dupe dap Ung bang mo h i n h in-theo-yeu-cau giUa nhiing lan tai ban, hp co the se khong can thiet phai yeu cau nhieu hon thuc te va giup lam giam lupng sach tra ve mpt each can ban. Do do, hieu qua ciia mo hinh in-theo-yeu-cau khong chi diing lai P viec giup d i kham pha xa hon Cai dudi ddi, ma la l a m tang hieu qua ciia Phan dau ciia Cai dudi. Khong can phai ban cai, day la mo h i n h co sUc t h u hut Ion va se phat trien cung vdi Ung dung a i a cong nghe.

SIT CAO CHUNG D6NG LOAT CUA KHO HANG Bien phap giam gia toi da la diing sii dung cong nghe truyen thong va chuyen sang sii dung ky thuat so dang bit. Cac nha tap hpp ky thuat so l u u trU kho hang a i a hp trong cac d' ciing va phan phoi thong qua dudng truyen bang rpng. Chi p h i san xuat, l u u kho va phan p h o i san pham tiep theo gan n h u bang khong, va p h i ban quyen se dupe tra k h i hang hda dupe ban. Do la t h i trudng theo-yeu-cau cuoi cung: b d i v i hang 176

Nhung thj truong m6i hoa d dang so nen chung co the dupe nhan ban va ban bao nhieu lan tuy thich, n i 0 cho den hang t i lan. Mot san pham

hit va khong ban dupe chi t o n tai n h u hai

tep trong co sd du" Ueu, b i n h dang ve cong nghe va chi phi luu tru. Ngay nay, mo h i n h nay dang dupe iTunes, Rhapsody va cac dich v u am nhac khac sii dung rpng rai. Tuy nhien, chiing ta hoan toan co the ap dung sang nhieu linh vuc khac. Xu hudng chii dao trong thdi dai ciia chiing ta la so hda san p h a m trudc day la vat the va mang chiing ve nha qua mang. Vdi bang hinh, t h i trudng k y thuat so bao gom cac dich v u bang-hmh-theo-yeu-cau mang tinh thuong mai do cac cong ty Internet cung cap va bang h i n h tren mang do cac trang mang n h u Google Video cung cap. Cong nghe trao dd'i dU Ueu peer-to-peer

n h u BitTorrent

dang tao ra hang t r a m t h i trudng bang l i i n h k y thuat so p h i thuong m a i va iTunes dang k i n h doanh phan m e m tai n i tren mang cho may iPod. Mpt so n p i dung trao ddi la bang hinh truyen hinh, tao ra mpt t h i trudng bang h i n h sd tren mang gidng n h u TiVo tren bau trdi. Cac nha cung cap khac ban p l i i m anh tren mang, gidng n h u Netflix (la cong ty d i dau trong l i n h vuc nay). Games dien n i von trudc kia dUdc ban thong qua dia hoac DVD, nay dupe chuyen thanh cac tep chuyen den ban games trong tiing p h o n g khach. Dieu nay tao ra m p t t h i trudng mdi, bao gom d i i loai, ni" games cd dien, games phu, den viec ket hpp n p i dung p h u t r p n h u cac n h a n vat va t r i n h dp m d i . Nintedo dang n h a m vao t h i 177

CAl DUOI DAI tnrdng tren v d i ban dieu khie'n games m d i cd ten la Cach mang (Revolution), co chile nang WOng thich vdi cac games cu, vdi day d i i cac games theo m d h i n h Cai duoi ddi - games v u i nhdn hay cd' dien cd the tai xuong vdi chi p h i nhd. Dieu w o n g tu" ciing dien ra d o i v d i sach dien n i va sach am thanh, bao va tap chi tren mang, hay phan mem. Tat ca nhirng gi trudc day duoc phan p h o i bang giay hoac nhua v d i rat nhieu sU phUc tap trong l u u chUa va phan phoi. Nay t i t ca dUOc chuyen sang dang so vdi nhirng quy luat k i n h te tudng Ung trong the gidi so. Qua trinh chuyen doi doi vol moi san pham la khong giong nhau, do do tai sao sach va tap chi giay van la su lUa chon Ua thich ciia nhieu ngudi. Tuy nhien, su khac biet dang dan t h u nho va l o i the ciia viec phan phoi san pham ky thuat so la khong the cudng lai dUdc.

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N H I I N G N G U d l T A P T H I HIEIJ

MClI

NHUNG CON KutN CO LOA. CHUNG DANG NOI GI THE?

Ngay xua ngay xua, chi co m p t each de quang ba cac a l b u m b a n chay la d a i phat thanh. K h o n g co phuong tien nao co nhieu ngudi nghe n h u vay. Chen chan vao danh sach ciia dai phat thanh la viec kho khan (dac biet la sau k h i viec dua tien de quang cao san p h a m b i cam), nhung m p t bai hat neu dupe phat di phat lai t h i se co nhieu kha nang trdi thanh ban chay. Sau do, vao nhUng n a m 1980, MTV ra d d i t r d thanh phuong tien thU hai tao ra cac bai hat hit. MTV it co kha nang quang ba a m nhac m d i , n h u n g anh hudng a i a nd doi vol mpt the he t h i khong phuong tien nao cd the sanh k i p . D o i v d i cac cong ty am nhac ldn, do la thdi k y h u y hoang. Canh tranh dien ra thuc su khac nghiet n h u n g do la cong viec k i n h doanh ma hp am hieu. Hp hieu quy luat va cd the van dung chiing trong k i n h doanh.

179

CAI DUOI DAI N h u n g gid day, dai phat t h a n h p h a t nhac r o c k duong n h u dang of giai doan cuoi cua qua t r i n h thoai trao va MTV khong con phat nhieu bai hat nUa. Vay t h i truong am nhac se d i ve dau? NhUng cong ty l d n biet rang cau tra Idi la qua mang, khai thac tiem nang ciia luc l u o n g quang ba dang thay the t h i t r u d n g truyen thong trong viec tao ra n h u cau. D u vay, hp van dang t i m each lam the nao de khai thac tot nhat t h i trudng nay. Chiing ta dang d trong thdi k y v d i nhUng thay ddi co ban ddi v d i cac nha quang ba t h i trudng. Niem t i n vao quang cao va cac to chUc tra tien quang cao dang b i x o i mdn, trong k h i n i e m t i n vao cac ca nhan dang tang len. Khach hang chia se mang ngang hang t i n 1

nhau. Cach tiep can n i tren xuong dang mat dan tac dung, trong k h i do, thong t i n tU dudi len dang phat huy hieu qua. Cong ty Dell da chi hang t r a m trieu dola m o i nam de quang ba chat lupng va cham sdc khach hang nhung neu sii dung Google tra n i khoa "dell hell" , 2

ban se t h u dupe 42 nghin trang co ket qua chi trich san pham Dell. Tham chi vdi n i khoa "dell", ban se t i m dupe Idi chi trich d ngay trang ket qua thU hai. Su dao ngupc tren dang lam thay ddi hoan toan phuong phap quang ba san pham, n i san pham ca the den ngudi tieu dung. So dong dang chi phoi thong diep. Doi v d i m p t the he khach hang quen mua hang qua 1

Tire nhirng ngudi sii dung cong nghe peer-to-peer. Tam djch: Dell toi. 180

Nhung nguoi tao thj hieu moi cong cu t i m k i e m t h i thuong hieu ciia m o t cong ty khong phai la nhiing gi cong ty quang cao ma la nhiing gi Google noi ve cong ty do. NgUol tao t h i hieu moi chinh la chiing ta. L61 noi ciia chiing ta gid day t r d thanh hoi thoai xa hoi, duoc truyen tai qua b i n h luan blog va y kien khach hang, duoc d o i chieu va kiem tra ky ludng. NhUng con kien gid da cd loa. Cau h d i l a m the nao de thuc day nhu cau trong mot t h i gidi n h u vay co tam quan trong then chot, va trong chuong nay, t o i se mieu ta nhiing ky thuat de dat duoc dieu do. Tuy nhien, trudc tien t d i se bat dau trong nganh am nhac, n o i k h d i dau ciia qua t r i n h k h a m pha Cai duoi dai Ba ban nhac se ke chuyen ve mot t h d i ky ma quyen luc da chuyen n i cac nha san xuat am nhac sang ngudi ham m d va nhiing tang ldp khac nhau ciia xa hdi. Ket qua k i n h doanh ciia ba ban nhac tren la khac nhau - m o t that bai, m o t thanh cong, m o t n i t ra bai hoc rang cac ban nhac cd the se khong can thudng hi?u - nhung ciing nhau, chiing mieu ta nhUng thach thUc ciia viec ban am nhac trong ky nguyen m d i khi cac khach hang dUOc trao quyen.

B O N N I E MCKEE Thang 9 nam 2004, cong ty thu thanh Reprise (mot chi nhanh ciia tap doan Warner) phat harm album dau tay ciia m o t ca si luc do 19 t u o i ten la Bonnie McKee. Do la m o t sU k h d i dau day k h d khan. Cong viec t h u

181

CAl DUOI DAI thanh phai thuc hien hai lan va b i t r i hoan m p t nam trong k h i cong ty phai t i m dau ra cho dia nhac - va cho ca si. Mac du con tre nhung McKee da sd hUu giong khan rat truong thanh, da t u sang tac va rung gap nhieu rac r o i vol t u o i tho chim ngap trong ma tuy va t i n h due. Co da ket hon of t u o i 18 nhung lai cong khai hen ho vdi nhUng ngudi dan ong khac, co k h i vol ngudi gap doi n i d i ciia co. Than tupng ciia co la mpt ca si boc dong co ten Fiona Apple di theo dong am nhac rat kho phan loai. DUa tren qua khU bat hanh va gian nan ciia co, Reprise cuoi cung da quyet dinh xep McKee vao the loai nhac rock t u bien t u dien gidng n h u Sheryl Crow. Hp dat ten album ciia co la Trouble (Dieu phien muon) va tien hanh m p t chien dich quang bao tren dai phat thanh danh cho ngudi l d n nham vao p h u nU d dp nidi cudi 20 va dau 30. D u bao do ciia cong ty chUa dung nhieu dieu khong chac c h i n - t h a m chi cac bai hat khong the giup doan dupe n p i dung va dia diem xuat xU ciia ca si - va ddi vdi bai hat m d i khong gidi thieu xuat xU t h i co rat it kha nang thanh cong. Dai phat thanh cung khong con la phuong tien quang ba duy nhat. Do do, trong khi chuan bi, cong ty da dua trudc mpt sd bai hat len mang am nhac, trong do cd mang Yahoo!, noi cd dich vu phat thanh Internet mien p h i cd ten la LAUNCHcast. Mpt t r o n g n h U n g dac d i e m d u p e b i e t d e n nhait ciia LAUNCHcast la trang mang nay cho phep hang trieu ngudi t r u y cap lua chpn ban nhac va gidi t i n h theo y 122

Nhung nguoi tao thj hieu mdi thich, nghe nhac cua nhUng ban nhac va ca si do mien phi. Reprise m u o n t h i i xem t h i n h gia co the giup xac dinh loai h i n h am nhac ciia McKee. LAUNCHcast dupe xay diing tren he thong danh gia bai hat "tuy theo t h i hieu", nghia la he thong nay se giiip ban t i m bai hat dua tren sd thich ciia m i n h . K h i moi bai hat duoc phat, se co m p t ciia sd nho yeu cau ban danh gia bai hat, ca si va album theo t h i i t u nr mpt den nam sao va theo yeu cau, n i "khong bao gid m u o n nghe" den "Liic nao ciing m u o n nghe". K h i ban nghe nhac va dua ra danh gia, phan mem ciia Yahoo! se nhap thong t i n ciia ban va thay ddi danh sach bai hat cho cac bai hat tiep theo. N h u n g do k h o n g c h i la v a n de p h a n

mem.

LAUNCHcast ciing cd muc tieu t i m hieu nhung t h i n h gia va sU dung y kien ciia hp de d i n h hudng ngudi nghe. Do day la dich v u tren mang vdi hang trieu ngudi truy cap nen Yahoo! cd the t h u hang tram trieu y kien khen che m o i nam, dua ra danh gia ve gu ciia ngudi nghe vdi dp chinh xac cao. Dieu nay cho biยงt thong t i n khong chi ciia ngudi nghe ma con giup cung cap cho hp am nhac theo sd thich va d i n h hudng cho nganh am nhac. Ngoai la m p t dich v u am nhac m i e n p h i , LAUNCHcast con la m p t co may tham do d u luan ldn. Nd thudng xuyen d i theo nhip dieu ciia van hda, t i m hieu t h i hieu ciia hang trieu t h i n h gia de cac ca si t i m each dap Ung. Neu cd nhieu ngudi ndi rang hp thich Groove Armada va The Crystal Method t h i cd the cd m d i lien h? nao 183

CAI DUOI DAI do grtfa hai dong nhac nay, mac d i i sif that la mpt dong nhac dupe danh gia la "nhip dieu cham", con dong kia la "nhanh va manh". Su lien he do khien Yahoo! dUa hai ban nhac tren trong ciing mpt danh sach mpt each thudng xuyen hon, va neu danh gia tich cue ciia tWnh gia tiep rue tang len t h i m o i lien he do lai cang dupe tang cudng. Mac d u Yahoo! tao ra danh sach bai hat cho timg doc gia, doi k h i trang mang nay ciing gidi thieu mot so ca si va bai hat m d i de xem dpc gia phan Ung n h u the nao. Cac dai phat thanh cung lam dieu nay nhung thudng chi vdi nhirng ca si da thanh danh va sau mpt qua t r i n h t h i i nghiem ciing n h u quang ba thuong hieu. Su khac biet la d cho Yahoo! dupe coi la cd hang trieu dai phat thanh, m o i dai dude dieu chinh de dap Ung m p t khach hang. Nd cd nang luc phat song vd tan va do do, ciing giong n h u cd kho chUa hang vd tan, no khong cd sU phan biet the loai am nhac. Do do, nd co the t h i i nghiem ca si va album m d i - vai nghin bai hat m o i nam, hau het so do khong dupe phat song tren dai phat thanh truyen thong. Neu m p t bai hat m d i dupe m p t so ngudi nghe danh gia cao trong lan nghe dau tien, Yahoo! se dUa bai hat do vao danh sach. Khong giong vdi dai phat thanh truyen thong, Yahoo! biet kha rd nhUng thinh gia thich bai hat do n h u gidi tinh, dp tuoi, ma vung dien thoai, va t h j hieu nghe nhac bang each xem lai thai dp va each cho diem ciia hp d o i vdi cac bai hat trudc. Neu dupe s i i dung dung, nhirng thong t i n tren se giup m d 184

NhOng nguoi tao thj hieu moi ra m o t each quang ba am nhac m d i - truyen mieng, dUOc khuech dai b d l phan hoi n i nhiing ngudi nghe. Dieu do da keo Reprise den v d i dich v u nay. Nham t i m hieu t h i n h gia cho gipng ca McKee, Reprise quyet dinh sii dung kha nang cua Yahoo! trong thU nghiem nhiing ca si m d i bang each dUa len mang bai hat cua cd co ten la "Somebody" trong danh sach bai hat danh cho ngtidi ldn, giong n h u doi tuprig t h i n h gia ciia dai phat thanh ma cong ty d i n h sU dung. Cong ty da chi them tien de dUa bai hat a i a McKee den vol nhieu ngudi nghe hon v o l hy vong nhan dupe danh gia a i a khach hang ve giong a i a co. Sau vai tuan, Yahoo! da co cau tra l o t "Somebody" t r d nen rat nd'i tieng, nhung vdi cac n h o m dan so khac nhau va dieu ngac nhien la khong phai v o l n h o m p h u nU lUa t u o i 25-35 ma cong ty da nham vao. Bao cao a i a LAUNCHcast cho biet thong t i n ve thinh gia a i a McKee trong tuong quan vdi do t u d i n h u sau: THANH PHAN NGUOI NGHE Phu ntf 13-17 tuoi Phu nti duoi 13 tuoi Phil nil 18-24 tudi Nam gidi 13-17 tuoi Nam gidi 18-24 tudi Nam gidi dudi 13 tudi Phu nU tren 25 tudi Nam gidi tren 25 tudi

29,9% 17,2% 15,9% 8% 6,4% 4,4% 11% 7,2%

Bai hoc d day la r d rang. Respise da phan doan sai. Thay v i t h u hut p h u nU d do t u d i 20 va 30, Bonnie cd 185

CAI DUOI DAI sUc hut doi vol p h u m i tre hon nhieu, vol gan mot niia so ngudi nghe dudi 17 tudi. Thay v i dUa ra lien he v d i nhiing nghe si n h u Sheryl Crow, ngudi nghe thudng t i m kiem cac nghe si n h u Avril Lavigne, Britney Spears va Gwen Stefani. Hda ra nhieu cd gai tre cd the phat hien ra t u d i tho dU ddi va cam nhan dupe cau chuyen lang man trong nhac cua McKee. GiUa thang 11 nam 2004, "Somebody" t r d thanh bai hat duoc choi nhieu thU m u d i tren LAUNCHcast. Cudi ciing, ket qua la Bonnie McKee lot vao Top 50 lenh t i m kiem nhieu nhat tren mang. Thong t i n tren budc cac nha quan ly am nhac phai thay ddi co ban each quang cao cho Bonnie McKee. Hp thay ddi h i n h anh ciia cd, nhan manh nhiing net dpc dao. Hp ket luan rang cd khong gidng vdi Sheryl Crow hay Britney Spears ma la mpt ca si n d i loan nham t h u hut tam ly gian dU ciia cac t h i n h gia thieu nU. Do la m p t quyet d i n h thong m i n h , nhung khong mang lai hieu qua. A l b u m ciia cd chi ban dupe 17 nghin ban. Bat chap thong sd ve dan sd va dia ly ciia khan gia nghe bai hat ciia co, bai hat ciia co van khong dupe phat tren song. Robin Bechtel, ngudi dieu hanh chien d j c h quang ba cho biet: "Dieu chung t d i n i t ra la neu mpt ban nhac xay dung dupe dpi ngu ngudi ham mp tren mang trudc, hp se co cd hdi ban nhieu CD hon k h i bai hat ciia hp dupe phat tren dai phat thanh va MTV. Nhieu nghe si khong di theo each do da that bai hoac khong duoc phat tren dai phat thanh, hoac la chi dupe tai nhiing bai hat hay tren mang ma khong dupe 186

Nhung nguoi tao thj hieu moi mua toan bo album. Dudng n h u ngudi ham mo khong quan tam den ca si ma chi quan tam den bai hat". Ba cho rang n h u cau doi vdi bai hat ciia McKee da co ban duoc dap ting miHn p h i tren mang. SUc hut cua ca si nay r d rang khong du l d n de khien ngudi nghe muon nghe cac bai hat khac. Van de khong phai la dua len va quang ba, ma la thieu su ung hp chinh thong tir dong dao ngudi nghe. Ban dupe bai hat tren mang ngay nay khong chi la dUa ra mpt bai hat hay, nd doi hdi phai xay dung dupe co sd ngudi ham mp, neu ly tudng t h i la nhirng ngudi biet each truyen thong diep tren mang.

B A N N H A C MY CHEMICAL

ROMANCE

Reprise tim thay mpt vi dp phu hpp ve luc lupng ngudi ham mp vdi ban nhac punk-pop nam thanh vien tai New Jersey co ten My Chemical Romance. Ban nhac nay cho ra mat album Three Cheers for Sweet

Revenge

cung vdi thdi diem album ciia McKee nhung day la album thU hai cua hp. A l b u m dau tien cua hp ban dupe 10 nghin ban, so lupng nhd nhung dam bao chac chan. nam thang trudc k h i ban nhac nay cho ra ddi album thU hai vao thang 5 n a m 2004, Reprise tien hanh dua cac b a i h a t

len mang

n h u Shoutweb.com

AbsolutePunk.net tap trung vao so ngudi nghe chii chot cua album thU nhat vdi hy vpng se tao dupe sUc hut r p n g hdn.

187

CAI DUOI DAI Cong ty ciing dUa ban nhac nay len hai trang mang t u o n g d o i m d i ( l u c d o ) l a P u r e V o l u m e . c o m va MySpace.com. Cong ty da dUa cac bai hat tren mang tren PureVolume de quang ba va tang mien p h i Video Clip bai hat " I ' m Not Okay (I Promise)". Sau k h i dUa len mang, Reprise co the thay dupe ket qua. Qua d i i Ueu truyen tai, cong ty cd the thay su" quan tam tang len doi v d i cum t u "Not Okay", nhUng cung cd nhieu lenh t i m kiem doi vdi bai hat "Helena". Theo do, cong ty cho ra ddi dia don tiep theo la "Helena" va vol su yeu cau ciia ngudi ham md, bai hat nay da duoc phat song. Vao cuoi mua he, "Helena" t r d thanh bai hat dupe yeu cau nhieu nhat ciia ban nhac. Khi ban nhac cong dien vao thang 9, Reprise m d rdng quang cao sang Yahoo! Music and AOL, bao gom ca am thanh, hinh anh va cac buoi bieu dien tren mang. Trong k h i do, ngudi ham mp truy cap vao dia chi tren m a n g c i i a b a n n h a c va MySpace. Ban n h a c My Chemical Romance co so lupng t h u dien n i l d n nhat ciia tap doan Warner. Ban nhac da ban dupe 1,4 trieu album, t r d thanh mpt trong nhung ban nhac ban nhieu dia nhat trong nam. Ly do chii yeu la dai phat thanh va MTV dua ban nhac den vdi dong dao dpc gia nhung ban nhac nay bat dau nd'i tren mang tren mang va da xay dung dupe uy t i n trong mpt n h o m dpc gia chii chot. Su khac nhau giUa ban nhac My Chemical Romance va McKee la gi? Ngoai tai nang, My Chemical Romance

188

NhOng nguoi tao thj hieu moi co left the la da co co sd ngudi ham mp qua album dau tien va nhung buoi cong dien tren mang. Co hang ngliin nguoi mong m u o n mua bai hat cua ban nhac nay va khi cong ty dua ra mot so bai hat tren mang, hp phan hoi vol b i n h luan manh me, bao gom ca viec yeu cau phat thanh. Dieu do da dua ban nhac len song va dupe biet den vol so lupng dpc gia m d i va dong dao hon. Ngupc lai, McKee lai la ca si tuong doi i t dupe biet d i n va hau n h u chua bieu chin true tiep. Mac d u khan gia thich bai hat cua co tren Yahoo! nhung dieu do chua dti de tac dpng vao hanh v i ngudi ham m d . Hp khong mua album va khong m u o n biet t h e m ve cd. Tren dia chi MySpace, My Chemical Romance cd h o n 1 trieu "ban", McKee co 12 nghin. Do la dieu khac biet.

BAN NHAC BIRDMONSTER Vi du cuoi ciing la ve mpt ban nhac nhd hon nhieu nhung t d i biet rat r d v i nd lien quan den m p t dong nghiep trudc day ciia t d i . Trong qua t r i n h viet cuon sach nay, t d i quyet d i n h nghien cuu su tien trien ciia ban nhac Birdmonster, m p t ban nhac day trien vpng den tU San Fransisco vol ngudi sang lap la Peter Arcuni, trp ly bien tap tap chi Wired. Kinh nghiem ciia ban nhac nay rat cd ich. Birdmonster la m p t v i d u dien h i n h cho thay ba luc lupng ciia Cai dudi ddi dang pha v d nguyen trang trong nganh am nhac. Giong n h u tat ca cac ban nhac rock 189

CAI DUOI DAI khac, Birdmonster phai xoay t r d de co hop dong bieu dien. Nhung thay v i quay ray cac chu cau lac bo t h i cac thanh vien lai t i m ra each thUc thong m i n h hon. Theo thU t u ciia cau lac bo, nhung ngoi sao bieu dien duoc dang ky dau tien. Sau do, k h i ngay thang dUOc an dinh, cau lac bo se t i m cac tiet muc phu. Do lich ciia cau lac bo dUOc dUa len mang nen co h o i tham gia tiet muc phu co the duoc t i m thay qua lenh t i m kiem "TBA" va mot vai n i khoa khac lien quan den cau lac bo dia phuong. Do don thuan la van de hen he va dua ra de nghi duoc bieu dien. Tuy nhien, duoc chii cau lac bo de y den la chua dii; ho can biet rang ban co the t h u hut mot dam dong. Do do, Birdmonster sii dung chien thuat quang cao tren Internet. No bat dau v o i viec lap ra danh sach giii t h u tren mang va khuyen khich ngudi h a m m d dang ky t r d thanh "ban" tren dia chi ciia ban nhac tren MySpace. Nd dua vai bai hat len va liet ke m o t so hop dong bieu dien cung v d i nhiing tam anh. Nhiing ngudi truy cap cd the kiem tra, nghe hat va xem cac bUc anh ve lan bieu dien trudc va doc I d i b i n h ciia doc gia. Birdmonster cung t h u hut cac dai phat thanh tren Internet.

Chinh

"Ted",

chii

trang

mang

BagelRadio.com.com ciia San Fransisco da thuyet phuc chii cau lac bo danh cho Birdmonster bud'i bieu dien ldn va la hop dong dau tien cho loat cong dien bai hat Clap Your Hand Say Yeah. Birdmonster da bat dau co duoc cho dung trong cuoc canh tranh giUa cac ban nhac, ciing v d i ban nhac rock da do White Stripes. 190

Nhung ngudi tao thj hieu mdi Do la hie vuon xa h o n muc dich ky cac hop dong bieu dien true tiep. Ban nhac da t h u ba bai hat trong mot phong t h u dia phuong va t u l a m thanh dang m o t album nho, sau do giii den dich v u am nhac co ten CD Baby va uy thac dich v u nay ban chung tren mang. Den lupt CD Baby lai truyen bai hat so den iTunes va cac mang am nhac hit khac de ban hay truyen d i giong n h u cac bai hat n o i tieng khac. Ban nhac sau do g u i cac bai hat va b i n h luan ca nhan qua t h u dien n i den m o t loat blog MP3, nhan dupe danh gia tich cue doi v d i vai bai hat n h u Music f o r Robots, do do cang t h u hut them khan gia. Trang mang tren MySpace ciia ban nhac bat dau nhan duoc y kien a i a ngudi ham mp, sau do la cac nha quan ly, cong ty bang dia yeu cau ky hpp dong. Tuy nhien, m p t dieu ngac nhien da dien ra sau do: Birdmonster khong chap thuan cac Idi mdi. Nhu Arcuni da ndi: "Chung t d i khong phai la bat hpp tac v d i cac cong ty am nhac nhung l p i ich a i a viec nay (rui ro va phan thudng) khong giup nhieu cho ban nhac". Mpt cong ty am nhac ve co ban cd b o n chUc nang: (1) Phat hi?n tai nang; (2) Tai t r p (cac ban nhac phai tra trudc p h i thue phong t h u giong n h u dau t u t u ban); (3) Phan p h o i va (4) Quang ba. Theo quan diem a i a Birdmonster, hp khong can mpt cong t y de l a m nhung viec do. Mpt CP sd ngudi ham mp dia phuong dong dao qua quang ba tren mang da cd dpng tai nang ciia hp. Cong nghe t h u k y thuat so

191

CAI DUOI DAl da l a m cho chi p h i t h u thanh re hon bao gid het - ho cd the t h u bai trong vai ngay tai phong thu, sau do p h 6 i k h i va hoan thien tai nha bang may t i n h ca nhan. Chi p h i cho toan bo mot album thap h o n 15 nghin dola, so tien hp co the vay va chi tra bang tiet kiem. CD Baby va cong ty Cinderblock cung cap dich v u phat hanh va kha nang tiep can cac trang mang n h u iTunes, Rhapsody va cac mang hang dau khac. MP3 blogs va MySpace giup quang cao m i e n p h i . Hp ly giai: vay t h i tai sao phai gan b d v d i m p t cong ty k h i hp co the t u t h u va phan p h o i am nhac cung n h u giU dupe su dpc lap sang tao? Neu album t u phat hanh ciia hp cd ket qua tot, hp se cd v i the dam phan manh hon vdi cong ty am nhac trong viec dua dia nhac ban tai cac ciia hang, hay vdi album thU hai, giong n h u ban nhac My Chemical Romance phat hanh sau album thU nhat. Neu dia nhac thU nhat khong cd k i t qua tot, ban nhac van con cac bud'i bieu dien true tiep va cong dien v o n la phan tot dep nhat doi v d i mpt ban nhac. Do do Arcuni bo viec tai Wired (chung t d i b i thiet!) va bat dau cupc song ciia m p t nhac si chuyen nghiep t r o n g k y nguyen so DIY, k h i cong nghe da chuyen quyen luc n i cac cong ty t d i cac ban nhac.

QUYEN LUC C U A T i N H B A O T A P T H E Bang xep hang am nhac ciia Yahoo!, Google PageRank, MySpace, danh gia ciia khan gia tren Netflix 192

NhOng nguoi tao thj hieu moi la nhiing trang mang tap hop tri tue cua so dong. Hang trieu ngudi thudng xuyen tao ra gu thudng thUc mdi. Mot so hanh dong v o l t u each ca nhan, so khac theo nhom l o i ich va mot so khac don thuan la nhung dam ngudi duoc phan m e m theo ddi t u dong de biet each sU dung mang hang ngay ciia hp. Lan dau tien trong lich sU, chung ta co the do dem cac h i n h thUc tieu diing, cac x u hudng va sd thich ciia toan bp t h i trudng tieu diing trong m p t thdi diem va cd the nhanh chong dieu clrinh san xuat de dap Ung. NhUng ngudi tao t h i hieu nay khong phai la ldp ngudi sieu-tinh-hoa ma chinh la chiing ta. Cac nha nghien cuu x u hudng k i n h doanh tai tap doan co van Frog Design cho rang hien tupng nay chinh la mpt su thay d d i trpng dai: Chiing ta dang ni biet Ky nguyen Thong tin va budc vao Ky nguyen Khuyen nghi. Ngay nay, viec tiep can thong tin qua de dang, ban cd the thay thong tin tren dudng pho. Tap hpp thong tin khong con la van de dua ra quyet dinh diing dua tren thong tin mdi la khd khan... Khuyen nghi cd vai trd nhu Idi chi dan trong md bong bong thong tin, gidng nhu ngudi chii cua hang rupu chi dan tdi t i m ra rupu vang Phap de uong vol mon m i dng. Su truyen mieng chinh la luc lupng thU ba ciia Cai duoi dat khai thac t i n h cam ciia ngudi tieu dung de ket n o i cung va cau. Luc lupng t h U nhat p h d bien hda qua t r i n h san xuat, tao ra sU phan bd ciia Cai dudi.

193

CAI DUOI DAI Luc lupng t h u hai pho bien hoa qua trinh phan phoi, lam cho hang hoa luon co the tiep can. Nhirng hai luc luorig tren la chUa dii. Chi den k h i xuat hien luc lUpTig thUba, giup con ngudi t i m thay nhUng gi hp muon trong the gioi hang hoa sieu d u thUa ve chiing loai, kich thudc thi t h i trudng Cai dudi ddi m o i thuc sU xuat hien. NhUng ngudi tao ra t h i hieu m d i don gian la nhirng ngudi co quan diem dupe k i n h trpng. Hp gay anh hudng den hanh v i ciia ngudi khac, bang each khuyen khich mua nhirng mat hang ma le ra nhirng ngudi do le ra se khong mua. Mpt so ngudi tao ra t h i hieu la nhUng chuyen gia truyen thong: nhirng nha phe b i n h am nhac va p h i m anh, bien tap vien hay ngudi t h i i nghiem san pham. Do quan tam ciia chung ta dupe m d rpng vdi sp bung no' da dang chiing loai san pham nen nhu cau doi vol nhirng l d l khuyen dang t i n cay do cung dupe m d rpng den nhUng thi trudng

ngach nho

nhat. Nhirng cong ty n h u Weblogs, Inc. da thanh cong trong viec tao ra blog de dap Ung nhUng quan tam hep, tU b i n h lan k h i nen den cac dung cu ket noi Internet khong day hay cong nghe sinh hpc. Nhirng ngudi tao t h i hieu khac la nhirng nhan vat nd'i tieng. Hp dua ra nhirng chi dan dang t i n cay va co anh hudng ngay cang l d n d o i vdi tieu dung. TU viec quang cao san p h a m t r e n t r u y e n h i n h den nhUng thanh cong l d n ciia tap chi InStyle (vdi sang tao ldn nhat la khong cat anh phan chan ciia nhan vat de quang cao giay), sUc manh ciia nhUng nhan vat noi 194

Nhung ngudi tao thj hieu moi tieng dang tang len ve mat tao ra anh hudng d o i vdi nganh ban le. Co the ban khong dong y nhung Jessica Simpson chinh la ngudi tao ra t h i hieu. Nhung khong phai tat ca ngudi noi tieng deu la ngoi sao Hollywood. Do van hda ciia chiing ta b i phan nho thanh m p t trieu nen van hoa sieu nhd nen chiing ta dang chiing kien m o t su n o i len ciia nhiing ngudi n o i tieng trong pham v i hep. Trong the gidi cong nghe, hp la nhiing blogger cd the hie n h u n h o m sang lap ra DailyCandy - m p t blog ve t h d i trang, hay BoingBoing - mpt dia chi ve cong nghe va van hda ngach, vao thdi diem t o i viet cuon sach nay dang la blog noi tieng nhat the gidi. BoingBoing cd kha nang phat hien ra san pham hap dan, n h u game "20 cau h o i " gia 15 dola dUOc xay dung dUa tren he thong than k i n h dien tU va dupe hudng dan sU dpng t n i c tuyen, da t h u hut d i i khach hang tren mang va ban het hang chi trong m p t ngay. Nhiing ngudi nd'i tieng trong p h a m v i hep khac tham chi con cd p h a m v i hep hon, n h u nhung ngudi dua nhac pham t r d thanh nd'i tieng trong cac danh sach bai hat ciia iTunes hay nhan vat tao ra nhUng blog am nhac nd'i tieng n h u Pitchfork Media. Thai dp ciia dam dong cung tao ra t h i hieu va day la h i n h thUc de dang nhat ciia t i n h bao phan phoi. NhUng v i d u ve dam dong la dan t r u y cap Flickr, m p t trang mang chia se h i n h anh cho phep ban sang tao ra cac loai anh ciia rieng ban (ban cd the n h i n thay Paris Hilton trong anh, nhung t d i n h i n thay cd ta trong

195

CAl DUOI DAl dien thoai Sidekick, do do toi dat ten anh la "Sidekick") va nhirng ngudi ket noi tren mang danh sach cua cac trang mang ho m u o n truy cap trong tudng lai. Nhirng thanh vien cua dam dong do co the khong nghi rang ho la ngudi dua ra khuyen nghi hay chi dan. Hp chi lam nhung viec ciia rieng hp. Nhung hang ngay co ngay cang nhieu phan mem theo doi hanh dpng ciia hp va n i t ra ket luan tU do. Su n o i len ciia cac cong cu t i m kiem n h u nhirng luc lupng k i n h te ciia Thung lung Silicon la su phan anh gia t r i ma chung ta thUa nhan trong danh gia va phan tich hanh dpng ciia hang trieu ca nhan.

QUY LUAT CUA CAC B0 LOC Thuat ngU chung mo ta nhUng khuyen nghi va tat ca nhung cong cu khac giup ban t i m thay chat lupng trong Cai dudi ddi la cac bp loc. NhUng cong nghe va dich v u nay loc mpt loat lua chpn de dua ra nhUng lua chpn p h u hpp nhat d o i v 6 i ban. Do chinh la dieu Google thuc hien k h i no xep ket qua: no loc trang mang de t i m nhUng trang co lien quan nhat doi v d i lenh t i m kiem ciia ban. Do ciing la dieu ma trang "Most Popular Track" ("NhUng bai hat dupe yeu t h i c h nhat") ciia Rhapsody dang thuc hien. Cac bp loc tao t h a n h thU ma Rob Reid, m p t trong nhUng nha sang lap ra trang listen.com gpi la "tang chuyen dpng" ciia Cai dudi ddi. Dieu nay k h o n g co 196

Nhung nguoi tao thi hieu moi gi dac biet t r e n Internet va nhu" ong ta chi ra, no khong m o i : That thii vi khi quyen luc va tam quan trong cua tang chuyen dpng khong chi la hien tuong tren mang. Trong n h i e u nam, Hang hang khong American Ahlines kiem dupe nhieu tien t u he thong dat cho dien t u Sabre (la tang chuyen dong dupe chia se trong nganh hang khong doi vol he thong duong bay phuc tap cua thap nien 70 va 80) hon la toan bo nganh hang khong thu tien khach khi di may bay. Trong thoi gian dai, cong ty Baby Bell kiem dupe l p i nhuan t u nhung trang vang a i a ho - tuc la tang chuyen dong a i a tat ca doanh nghiep dia phuong - hon la n i cac doanh nghiep doc quyen ke thua. Cvng vay, d thdi ky dinh cao, tivi Guide da thach thiic he thong truyen hinh cap ve mat l p i nhuan. Trong the gidi khong cd gidi han lua chon, boi canh chu khong phai hang hoa - chinh la vua. Trong thi trudng Cai dudi ddi ngay nay, tac dung chinh a i a cac bp lpc la giup con ngudi chuyen n i the gidi hp da biet ("san p h a m hit") den the gidi hp chua biet ("thi tntdng

ngach") thong qua con dudng phu hop

va dupe dieu chinh theo t h i hieu. Theo nghia nao do, nhung bp lpc tot cd tac dung thuc day n h u cau d phia dudi Cai dudi bang each dua ra hang hda va d i c h v u cd sUc I d i cuon h d n m a u so chung nhd nhat. Reed Hastings, CEO ciia Netflix, da m d ta tac dung ciia bp lpc t r o n g t r u d n g h p p nay la nhUng co may khuyen n g h i t i n h v i va nhUng thuat toan xep loai IQ7

CAI DUOI DAI trong viec thiic day n h u cau xa h o n trong Cai dudi DVD tren mang ciia ong ta: Trudc day, Blockbuster cho biet co khoang 90% phim ma cong ty nay thue la p h i m moi duoc cac rap cong chieu. Cd rihieu phim kem an khach hon duoc thue qua mang: khoang 70% la phim moi va 30% phim cii. Dieu nay khong diing doi vol Netflix. Khoang 30% so luong thue la phim moi va 70% la phim cu, khong phai vi chiing toi co ngudi dang ky khac nhau. Do la vi chiing toi tao ra nhu cau ve phim anh va chiing toi giup ban t i m ra nhung bo phim hay ma ban se thuc su thich. Chiing toi lam viec do qua thuat toan vdi nhung khuyen nghi va xep loai. Hastings tin rang khuyen nghi va nhiing bd loc khac la mot trong railing loi the quan trong nhat ciia Netflix, dac biet d o i v d i nhirng p h i m k e m an khach. Khuyen nghi cd the tao ra m p t loat n h u cau m d i trong quang cao vol chi p h i hau n h u bang khong. Neu Netflix goi y m p t bp p h i m dua tren thong t i n ma trang mang nay biet ve sd thich ciia ban va nhiing ngudi khac danh gia bp p h i m do t h i led gpi y do co sUc thuyet phuc hon bang quang cao n h a m vao lupng khan gia ldn. Nhung n h i i n g gpi y nay dupe dua ra t u dpng tU thong t i n khach hang ciia Netflix va so lupng "quang cao" la khong gidi han (cac trang mang dupe dieu chinh doi vdi m o i khach hang va m o i lan truy cap). Quang cao va quang ba chiem hon m p t niia chi phi ciia m o i bp p h i m hit ciia Hollywood. Cac hang p h i m nhd h o n khong the l a m theo each do. NhUng khuyen 198

NhOng nguoi tao thj hieu mdi nghi ciia Netflix tao ra co hpi cong bang hon thong qua viec cung cap quang cao mien p h i cho tat ca cac bp p h i m le ra khong co co h p i quang cao, do do trai rpng nhu cau mpt each cong bang hon giua p h i m hitvh p h i m b i n h thudng. Do chinh la luc lupng dan chii hda dang ke trong nganh cong nghiep rat p h i dan chii nay.

M0T BO LOC KHONG THE DUNG CHO T A T C A Khi chiing ta nghien ciiu sau he ve bo lpc va each hoat dpng ciia chiing, ta se co cai n h i n tong the ve chiing loai lpc. Hay bat dau v d i am n h a c Dudi day la mpt trong so rat nhieu loai bp lpc ma m p t ngudi sii dung b i n h thudng tren trang Rhapsody co the sii dung k h i t i m bai hat m d i . T i i trang chii, ngudi t r u y cap co the bat dau lua chpn cac the loai am nhac, do la loai h i n h phan loai da cap. Vi dp, ban bat dau chpn the loai Alternative/Punk va sau do chpn Punk Junk. Trong the loai do, cd danh sach ban chay nhat, diing dau la bai Bloc Party. Neu ban n h a n chupt vao Bloc Party, b a n se thay mpc pattern

matching

cung cap m p t danh sach cac ca si

cd lien quan, t r o n g do cd Gang of Four (Nhom Bon ten). Nhan chupt vao do se xuat hien danh sach "hau b o i " (followers) (Gang o f Four sang tao ra the loai Punk Funk t r o n g l a n x u a t h i e n d a u t i e n vao dau n h i i n g n a m 1980), do la m o h i n h n g u d i b i e n tap

199

CAI DUOI DAI khuyen nghi (ban cung co the b i thuyet phuc b d l danh gia cua bien tap vien). Mot trong so nhirng hau b o i cua Gang o f Four la Rapture. Nhan chuot vao do, neu ban thich, chpn mot dai phat thanh dupe chinh p h u hop v d i ca si, ban se thay m o t loat bai hat ciia Rapture va nhirng ban nhac ma ngudi nghe thich nghe Rapture cung thich. Do la m o t dang ciia loc p h o i hop. K h i nghe cac bai hat do, ban cd the thay rang trong so cac ban nhac, ban se thich nhat LCD Soundsystem. Nhan chuot vao do, nghe mot luc, va k h i ban muon nghe mot ban nhac mdi, hay nhan chuot vao playlist ciia ban nhac. Ban se thay ban nhac Zero 7 va co the se m u o n nghe them. Nhirng ky thuat khuyen nghi da dan ban nr loai nhac rock den nhac nhe, tU phan giUa ciia Cai duoi

den

phan cuoi va tat ca cac budc deu cd y nghia nhat dinh. Mac khac, nhirng khuyen nghi tren ciing khong phai luc nao cung hoan hao. Mot trong so nhieu van de la cang d i sau vao thi trudng

ngach t h i khuyen nghi se

it d i va het kha nhanh do cd i t ngudi co sd thich va lUa chon n h u vay. Mot van de khac la mac d i i dich v u nay cd the dua ra nhUng goi y tot va khuyen khich ban t i m hieu the loai mdi, song nhirng Idi khuyen thudng khong thay dd'i theo t h d i gian. Sau m o t thang va k h i da nghe tat ca khuyen nghi, co the se khong cd khuyen nghj mdi. Chua het, m o t gidi han khac la nhieu loai khuyen n g h j cd do t i n cay khac nhau d o i vdi nixig the loai 200

NhOng nguoi tao thj hieu moi khuyen nghi nhac rock khong dang t i n bang nhac co dien va ngupc lai. Trong mo M n h chay theo hit, m o t 161 khuyen nghi danh cho tat ca. Trong mo b i n h m o i nay, k h i thj truong

ngach va t h i trudng nho h o n d u

thUa hang hoa t h i n h u cau chuyen m o n hoa xuat hien. Mot v i du vยง dieu nay la iTunes, mac du dat duoc nhieu thanh cong nhung van co x u hudng thien ve nhac pop, qua do giam thieu tac dung doi vol cac dong nhac khac. Trong he thong iTunes va cac dich v u tuong tu, cac the loai khac nhau - n h u rock, jazz hay co' dien - deu dUdc dua ra theo cung m o t each la u u tien phan loai la "nghe si". Nhung ai la "nghe si" ciia dong co' dien nha soan nhac, dan nhac hay ngudi chi huy? Lieu mot ban concerto dai 30 giay co y nghia gi? Doi vdi nhac Jazz, ban cd x u hudng d i theo su nghiep ciia tUng ca si hon la ban nhac. Hay ban cd the chi quan tam den mpt nam nao do va m u o n xem cac ban nhac xuat hien trong nam do. Trong trudng hpp nay, ban se bd tay. Phan m e m iTunes se khong giup dupe ban. Tren day la nhUng that bai ciia mo h i n h va bp lpc one-size-fits-all (mpt dung cho tat ca). ITunes co the di tiep ve phia d u d i ciia Cai duoi, nhung sU chu trpng vao t i n h ddn gian va dU Ueu cd mau so chung nhd nhat da bupc nd t r d thanh m p t mo h i n h khong the dap Ung cd hieu qua tat ca cac the loai - va do do khong the dap Ung tat ca khach hang. Dieu nay khong chi dung doi v d i iTunes ma con dung v d i tat ca cac dich v u am nhac hien cd. Bdl v i khong loai bp lpc nao cd the dap Ung dupe tat 201

CAI DUOI DAI ca the loai nen nguoi nghe phai sU dung nhieu loai bo loc. Ban co the bat dau kham pha am nhac m d i bang each d i theo khuyen nghi, sau do k h i da den duoc vol the loai ma ban thich, ban cd the phai chuyen sang t i m k i e m m u d i tac pham hay nhat, hay t i m nhUng bai hat nd'i tieng nhat. Sau do, k h i ban t i m thay ban nhac yeu thich, ban cd the phai t i m nhUng ban nhac giong the bang bp lpc ket hpp. Khi ban t i m kiem sau mpt tuan va thay rang khong cd khuyen nghi mdi, ban se can m p t loai lpc khac de bat dau cupc kham pha mdi. Do cd the la mot danh sach bai hat - t i m hieu sd thich ciia ngudi khac- de t i m d i n m o t the loai khac va tU do lai bat dau cuoc k h a m pha m d i .

K H O N G P H A I TOP T E N N A O CUNG D U O C C H O N B I N H D A N G Cho den tan gan day, chung ta khong cd nhieu each t i m k i e m am nhac n h u hien nay. Ngoai cac khuyen n g h j mang t i n h ca nhan con co danh gia ciia cac bien tap vien tap chi, Idi khuyen ciia cac ciia hang bang dia va nhieu h o n ca la dai phat thanh. Danh muc bai hat tren dai phat thanh, dac biet ngay nay, la v i du dien h i n h ciia bp lpc n o i tieng nhat. Danh sach 10, 40, 100 bai hat hay nhat la san p h a m ciia van hoa chay theo hit, tU bang xep hang Nielsen den danh sach b a n chay nhat ciia T h d i bao New Y o r k . Tuy nhien, t r o n g the gidi Cai dudi ddi, v d i rat nhieu bp 202

Nhung ngudi tao thj hiiu mdi loc khac xuat hien, diem yeu cua danh sach mudi bai hat hay nhat ngay cang boc lo ro. Viec xep hang dua tren su noi tieng khong co gi sai - n i t cuoc t h i do la v i d u ve bo loc " t r i thUc so dong" nhung nhurig danh sach nay thudng xuyen xep dong loat cac loai bai hat k e m an khach, cac the loai, tieu the loai khong nd'i tieng vao m o t dong. V i d u la cac blogs. K h i t d i viet cuon sach nay, Technorati dua ra danh sach m u d i blogs la: 1. BoingBoing: Danh muc nhirng dieu tuyet vdi 2. Daily Kos: T i n h Wnh dat nude 3. Drew Curtis' FARK.com 4. Gizmodo: The Gadgets Weblog 5. Instapundit.com 6. Engadget 7. PostSecret 8. Talking Points Memo: ciia Joshua Micah Marshall 9. Davenetics Politics Media Musings lO.Dooce Chiing ta thay duoc dieu gi? Khong nhieu. Cd hai blogs ve do diing trong danh sach, hai hay ba ve chinh tri, mot vai loai khong the phan loai (BoingBoing, FARK, PostSecret) va m o t blog ca nhan (dooce). Noi each khac, danh sach tren duoc chon m p t each ban ngau nhien ciia nhUng thU khong lien quan den nhau. TUdng tu, danh sach cac blog hit cung giong n h u ndi 203

CAI DUOI DAI danh sach cac mat hang ban chay nhat trong sieu t h i ngay horn nay: 1. SUa DairyFressh 2% v i t a m i n D 2. Banh m i h o n hop Hayseed Farms 3. Chuoi, theo nai 4. Ngu coc Chunchios loai to 5. Thiic an kieng Woopsy, loai hop 12 6 Chang co y nghia gi. Khong ai de y xem lieu chuoi co ban chay h o n do uong co ga hay khong. Dieu m p i nguoi quan tam la do uong co ga nay lieu co ban chay hon do uong co ga khac hay khong. Cac danh sach chi co y nghia nao do k h i so sanh ciing loai v d i nhau. Ket luan d day la: dieu do cho thay ban can phai coi thi truong ngach la thi truong ngach. K h i ban nhin t h i trudng ba chieu bang lang kinh mpt chieu, ban se khong thu dupe dieu gi. Do la mpt danh sach nhung la danh sach vd nghia. Dieu cd y nghia la can xep hang trong mpt loai (hay tieu loai) chU khong phai la nhieu loai. Hay t r d lai v d i am nhac. K h i t d i viet cuon sach nay, m u d i nghe si hit ciia Rhapsody la: 1. Jack Johnson 2. Eminem 3. Coldplay 4. Fall Out Boy 5. Johnny Cash 6. Nickelback 204

Nhung ngudi tao thj hieu moi 7. James Blunt 8. Green Day 9. Death Cab f o r Cutie 1 O.Kelly Clarkson T r o n g so do co h a i "ca si t r u d n g t h a n h d o n g alternative", mot "hon hpp/hiphop", mot "Brit-rock", mot "emo", mot "outiaw country" (dong que nd'i loan), mot "post-gunge", mot "punk-pop", mot "indie-rock" va mot "teen beat" (nhac cua thieu nien). Lieu cd ai quan tam viec nhac outlaw country ban chay hon teen beat vao man nay hay ngupc lai? Lieu danh sach nay co giup ngudi nghe t i m them nhUng bai hat hp thich? Vay ma Top 10 (Top 40 va Top 100) la lang kinh chiing ta nhin vao van hda am nhac trong gan nUa the ky qua. Do la dieu vd nghia nhung la tat ca nhirng gi chiing ta cd. Hay so sanh dieu do vdi mpt loai danh sach top ten khac la dong nhac jazz chau Phi-Cuba: 1. Tito Puente 2. Buena Vista Social Club 3. Cai Tjader 4. A r t u r o Sandoval 5. Poncho Sanchez 6. Dizzy Gillespie 7. Perez Prado 8. I b r a h i m Ferer 9. Eddie Palrnieri 1 O.Michel Camilo 205

CAI DUOI DAl Do m d i dich mux la mpt danh sach m u d i ban nhac hay nhat. Do la danh sach cac bai hat cung loai va cd y nghia t i i dau den cuoi. Viec xep loai la cd the v i chiing

ta cd thiia thong t i n ve x u hudng tieu diing va

cd d i i khoang trong de xep cac bai hat Top 10 - chii khong chi co m p t loai bai hat Top 10. Trong trudng hpp nay, Tito Puente diing dau trong the loai nhac nay - con ca l d n trong ho nho. Doi vdi t h i n h gia ciia loai nhac nay, day la ca si ldn. Doi vdi nhiing ngudi khong quan tam, anh ta don gian la m o t nghe si khong ten tuoi va b i lang quen. Cac album ciia Tito khong lpt vao bang xep hang am nhac chung va khong phai la nhirng bai hat ban chay. NhUng chiing vupt trdi trong the loai nay, tao ra cai ma cay but Erick Sconfeld gpi la "ban chay ciia thi trudng ngach". Cac bp lpc va khuyen nghi co tac dung nhat trong t h i trudng nay, dua ky thuat quang ba va phat hien vao t h i trudng nho nay.

LIEU C A I D U O I D A I CO CHITA D A Y PHE P H A M ? Tai sao bp lpc cd vai tro quan trpng doi vdi hoat dpng ciia Cai dudi ddP. Bdi v i neu khong cd chung, Cai duoi ddi chi con la chiec thung rong. Ly thuyet thong t i n dupe xay diing dua tren nguyen ly chuyen tU t i n hieu sang tap am, trudc het ap dung trong phat thanh, sau do la bat cU loai may phat t i n hieu dien nao. Khai niem tU t i n hieu-den-tap am hien 206

Nhung nguoi tao thi hieu moi nay duoc su dung rdng rai de chi nhurig v i du cho thay vUpt qua t r d ngai con la thach thUc. Trong t h i trudng "Phan Dau Ngan" truyen thong, m p i t h t i dien ra b i n h thudng b d i v i hang hoa dupe trung bay tren gia hang hda da dupe lua chpn de cd i t r u i ro nhat. NhUng trong thi trudng Cai dudi ddi, nghia la tat ca m o i thU dupe trung bay, viec co ban dupe san pham hay khong lai la van de ldn. ThUc te, neu khong kiem soat t h i nhirng thu" ngau nhien hay hang hda chat lupng toi co the giet chet t h i trudng. Qua n h i l u tap am se anh hudng tieu cue den tain ly tieu dung. Cong viec ciia nhung bp lpc la loai bo tap am do. Cd the v i n h u dai gao tir vd trail hay dai cat t i m vang, vai trd ciia bp lpc la chpn ra nhung san pham dap Ung dupe t h i hieu va loai bo nhirng san pham khong dap Ung dtidc. T d i se giai t h i c h dieu nay bang viec dua ra mpt quan niem sai pho' bien. Do la quan niem Cai dudi ddi gom nhung hang hda ban "khong tot bang" nhirng hang hoa ban chay. Noi mpt each khac, hp cho rang Cai dudi ddi chUa day phe pham. Neu a l b u m / s a c h / p h i m va bat cU thU gi co chat lupng tot t h i se t r d thanh hit, co diing khong? Noi ngan gpn la khong. Thi trudng

ngach hoat dpng theo quy luat k i n h te

khac v d i t h i trudng chinh. Ly do do giai thich tai sao phan nhieu hang hda Cai dudi dai lai gay phan cam, dac biet k h i chung ta quen vdi l o i t u duy khan hiem. Dau tien, hay d i thang vao van de: Cai dudi dai thuc ra day phe pham.

207

CAI DUOI DAI Tuy nhien, no ciing co day tac pham tuyet v o l va co chieu sau - va co nhieu tap pham. Dieu do cung giong vol mang Internet. Tru6c day m u d i nam, ngudi ta phan nan ve viec co qua nhieu rac tren Internet va dung la n h u vay. Sau do xuat hien cac cong cu t i m k i e m nham chat loc t i n hieu tU tap am. Cuoi cung la sU xuat hien cua Google, mpt cong cu khai thac dupe t r i tue cua so dong de bien vo so kien thUc r o i rac thanh san pham dpc dao nhat ma the gidi tUng chUng kien. Dieu nay khong chi dung v d i Internet ma con diing vdi bat cU thU gi khac. Luat Sturgeon (bp luat dupe dat theo ten nha van theo trudng phai khoa hpc vien tudng Theodore Sturgeon) chi rd: "90% ciia m p i thU la do thUa". Hay nghi ve nghe thuat, khong phai d trong mpt trien l a m ma trong m p t ciia hang. It nhat 90% la do thUa. Dieu do cung diing doi v d i am nhac, sach hay bat cU thU gi. Ly do chung ta khong nghi n h u vay la do hau het rac dupe lpc qua he thong phan phoi le dua tren su khan niem. Tren mpt gia hang hda hay bat cU phuong tien phan p h o i nao, ty 1? giUa hang hda tot va khong tot la van de quan trpng bdi nd phan anh trd choi ke thang ngudi thua: khong gian ciia loai thU nhat loai trU khong gian ciia loai thU hai. Neu mpt ciia hang do choi cd chin do choi t d i va m p t do choi tot, ban se cho rang do la ciia hang toi va se khong m u o n den. Giong n h u vay, ciing chang dai gi t i m k i e m hang thung dia CD m a khong thay cd dia nhac quen. 208

Nhung nguoi tao thj hieu moi Tuy nhien, k h i gia dung hang hoa t r d nen vo tan, tro choi se khong con la ke thang ngudi thua nUa. Hang t i trang web rac khong gay ra van de n h u hang t i CD rac duoc dat tren ke dia cua Tower Record. Kho hang co t i n h "phi t h u dich" doi v o l cac trang mang va ty le tot/xau don thuan giong n h u van d i t i n hieu-tap am, hoan toan co the duoc giai quyet bang cong cu thong tin. Noi chung do khong phai la van de. Ban chi can co bp lpc tot. Noi each khac, tap am van t o n tai nhung Google cho phep ban khong can quan tam den chung. NhUng bp lpc m u o n nam! Dieu nay dan d i n chia khoa ve su khac biet ciia Cai duoi ddi. Tat ca khong can phai lpc trudc k h i dua vao phan p h o i do nhUng quy d i n h trong qua t r i n h phan phoi hay tU nhUng ngudi hen quan (bien tap vien, quan ly phong thu, ngudi phat hien tai nang, nhUng ngudi quan l y a i a Wal-Mart). Do do, thanh phan a i a hang hoa rat da dang, giong n h u bat cU thU gi trong the gidi a i a chung ta. Cd mpt each de mieu ta hien tupng nay (sii dung ngon ngU thong tin) la Cai dudi ddi cd bang tan rpng: tU xau den tot. Ngupc lai, m o i ciia hang chi cd bang tan rat hep: chii yeu la d khoang song tot. (Cd rat nhieu hang hda n h u n g hau het deu khong p h u hpp d o i v d i ciia hang; m a hang hda trong t h i trudng Cai dudi ddi t h i ton tai ca t o t va k h o n g tot), Do do, phan

dudi cd bang t a n r p n g va p h a n dau

cd bang t a n hep. T r e n b a n g bieu, d i e u do duoc m d ta n h u sau: 209

CAI DUOI DAI Chat lirong

Can hru y rang l u o n co hang hoa chat lupng cao trong tat ca cac phan ciia do thi, tU dau den cuoi. Tuy nhien, cung co hang hoa chat lupng k e m ciia Cai duoi va mUc chat lupng trung b i n h se giam hon d phan sau. Tuy nhien, vol bp lpc tot t h i dieu do se khong co van de gi. Cho nao ciing co the t i m thay k i m cuong. De lam ro hon, sau day la mpt so v i dp ve tieu chuan co the dupe s i i dung de danh gia n p i dung: "Chat luong cao"

"Chat luong thap"

Phu hpp

Khong phu hpp

Dupe lam tot

Dupe lam khong tot

Tuoi

lion

Thuc chat

Gia tao

Hap dan

Nham chan

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NhOng nguoi tao thj hieu moi R6 rang, khai niem "chat lupng cao" va "chat lupng thap" chi co t i n h chu quan va tat ca tieu chuan tren chi dua tren danh gia cua ngtfdl sii dung. Do do, khong co thudc do tuyet doi nao doi vol chat luong. Hang hoa "tot" vol ngudi nay co the la "xau" d6i vol ngudi khac. Dieu do giai thich tai sao cac thi trudng ngach khong giong nhau. T i n hieu cua ngudi nay cd the la tap am a i a ngudi khac. Neu m d t nha san xuat nham vao mot khach hang nao do t h i ve ly thuyet se de mat nhirng khach hang khac. Cach thUc de thoa man tat ca m o i ngudi dong nghia v d i viec khong ai duoc thoa man hoan toan - dieu do giai thich tai sao chiing ta sU dung cum n i mau so chung

nhd

nhat.

Y nghia a i a bieu do tren la doi vol nhieu ngudi, hang hda tot nhat la d phan

dudi. Neu ban quan tam den

mpt thiet b i am thanh noi t h i mat hang tot nhat khong phai d phan dau tai he thong Best Buy. San p h a m do qua dat, qua phUc tap va kho ban cho khach hang thong thudng. Thay vao do, se cd hang d phan sau tai m p t ciia hang chuyen biet. Bdi v i mat hang nay p h u hpp v d i ngudi hieu am thanh noi, nhung khong phu hop vol sd thich ciia m p i ngudi n d i chung. Cd the ndi san pham

ngach khong phai p h u hpp vdi m p i d o i

tupng. 6" phan phai ciia do t h i cung cd nhiing mat hang chat lupng khong tot. Thach thUc doi vdi bp lpc la lam the nao phan biet hai loai tren. Neu dupe t r p giup tot - cong cu t i m kiem, khuyen nghi va cac bp lpc tot - t h i

211

CAI DUOI DAI kha nang tim thay hang hoa tot cua ban ldn hon d phan dudi. Cac san pham ban chay co x u hudng hap dan so dong t h i hieu. San pham

ngach lai n h a m dap

Ung t h i hieu rat hep. Dieu do giai thich tai sao cong nghe lpc quan trpng n h u vay. Chung khong chi day n h u cau d phan duoi ma con l a m tang kha nang thoa man bang each ket n o i con ngudi va san p h a m p h u hpp h o n v d i nhau so v d i san pham d phan Dau.

CAI DUOI QUAY LEN MOI THU" KHAC Cd mpt each nghien cUu khac nhu bang dudi day. Khi Cai duoi ddi t r d nen dai hPn t h i ty le t i n hieu/tap am se thap hon. Do do, each duy nhat de m p t ngudi tieu dung bat dupe t i n hieu tot la phai cd bp lpc manh hon.

Loc tin hieu tu tap am

212

Nhung nguoi t?o thj hieu mdi Tai sao ty 1? t i n hieu/tap am lai tut xuong dan d phan sau a i a Cai dudi? Bdi v i co qua nhieu hang hoa 6" do va thuf ban m u o n t i m b i che lap b d i nhieu thU khac. Ly do giai thich dieu nay that don gian: hau n h u m o i thU tren the gidi nay nam d phan

duoi.

Mpt trong nhUng ket qua a i a nen van hoa chay theo hit la chung ta thudng cho rang cac mat hang hit chiem phan l d n hon tren t h i trudng so vdi thuc te. Thuc te, chung la nhUng dien h i n h n i e m cd. Dieu nay dupe Nassim Taleb mieu ta la "Van de con Thien nga den". T h u a t ngU t r e n do D a v i d Hume, nha t r i e t hpc Scotland song vao the ky 18 dua ra. Ong ta lay do lam v i du ve sU phUc tap trong viÂŁc n i t ra quy luat chung tU qua trinh quan sat sU vat. Hume dat cau hoi la chiing ta can thay bao nhieu con thien nga trang trudc k h i ket luat rang tat ca thien nga deu trang va khong cd con thien nga den nao. Mpt tram? Mpt nghin? Chung ta khong the biet dupe. (Thuat ngU Thien nga den co tinh an dir. cho den k h i chau Uc dupe t i m ra, nhan thUc chung deu cho rang tat ca thien nga cd mau trang. Nhan thUc do da b i tan v d vdi viÂŁc con thien nga den dau tien dupe n h i n thay). Van de la chiing ta i t k h i dat nhung sU viec h i hUu trong b o i canh chung. Trong dan so se cd vai ngudi cue giau. Mpt so giau do thong m i n h , m p t so do may man va chiing ta khong the phan biet r d rang. Trong tac p h a m Fooled by Randomness,

Taleb che gieu cuon

sach ban chay cd tua de Anh hang xdm trieu phu v d i npi dung ke lai nhung cii lUa trong dau t u va thdi quen 213

CAl BUOI DAI cua cac trieu p h u rang ban co the hpc va cung t r d nen giau co. Tuy nhien, Taleb cho rang nhan to ngau nhien co vai tro quan trpng doi v o l nguoi hang x d m do trong chien luoc dau t u . Ong d i n h nghia hien tupng Thien nga den la: Mot hien tupng ngan nhien dap ting ba tieu chi: co tac dpng ldn, khong the tinh toan dupe va co tac dpng gay ngac nhien. Thii nhat, no co tac dong ldn phi thudng. Thii hai, su xuat hien ciia no co tan suat thap nhung khong the tinh toan trudc dupe. Thii ba, thuoc tinh co huu ciia mpt hien tupng Thien nga den la tac dpng gay ngac nhien ciia no: trong khoang thdi gian nhat dinh, khong co yeu to co tinh thuyet phuc nao cho thay su xuat hien ciia hien tupng do. Ong cd the de dang mieu ta n h u vay vdi mpt bp p h i m hit. Thuc te la phan ldn san pham ( n i am nhac den pliim anh) khong phai la hit va cd the chi cd so lupng khan gia t i n h bang con so hang t r a m chU khong phai hang trieu. Cd the do chat lupng kem, cd the do khau quang ba, ciing cd the do nhan to ngau nhien giong n h u tac dpng ngau nhien bien mpt san pham thanh hit (giong n h u bp p h i m "Ai thd nhirng con cho"). Dieu nay la he qua nr nhien ciia quy luat phan phoi "luat quyen luc"- thuat ngU mieu ta m p t dudng cong vdi so lupng nhd hang hda ban dupe so lupng l d n va so lupng ldn hang hda ban vol so lupng nhd (thuat ngU nay xuat phat tU dudng cong cd dang 1/x). Do hau het hang hda khong ban chay nen so lupng 214

Nhung nguoi tao thj hieu moi vat chat co san - hay noi rpng ra la so luong hang hoa ban khong m u o n mua - tang len k h i Cdi duoi ddi tien gan phia tnic hoanh. Sau day la mpt so du" lieu trong nganh i n sach, cho biet so lupng cac loai sach dupe ban nam 2004. Sach ban nam 2004 So lirong ban

Sd dau sach

Don vi

1 trieu trd len

17.396.510

500 nghin - 999.999

13.798.299

250 nghin - 499.999

22.252.491

100 nghin - 249.999

324

46.932.031

50 nghin - 99.999

767

51.858.835

5 nghin - 49.999

23.04

280.000.591

1 nghin - 4.999

67.008

149.093.614

100-999

202.938

65.548.499

It hon 99

948.005

14.346.417

Tong so

1,2 trieu

665 trieu

Ngudn: Book Industry Study Group Dieu n i t ra la cho d u ban t i m bat cU cuon sach nao t h i 6" phia sau ciia Cdi dudi se co nhieu cuon sach hon khong nam trong su quan t a m cua ban. Dieu do giai thich tai sao ty le giUa t i n hieu-tap am giam xuong, bat chap thuc te rang ban co nhieu kha nang t i m thay thU ban can hon of phia sau ciia Cdi dudi. Dieu nay co ve n h u la m o t nghich ly, nhung khong phai. Do chi la van de ciia nhUng bo l o c 215

CAI DUOI DAI

LOC TRUOC V A LOC SAU Hien nay, the gidi cd day nhung bp lpc khac nhau. Trong t h i t r u d n g khan n i e m ma chung t a da song trong phan l d n cua the k y trudc, t i i gia de hang hoa, den man anh va kenh truyen hinh, tat ca cac nganh cong nghiep deu cd nhiem v u la t i m kiem va quang ba cho nhiing hang hoa tot. Do la nhiing gi ma ngudi phat hien tai nang trong bp phan A&R tai cac cong ty bang 1

dia da lam, cung n h u cac nha dieu hanh Hollywood, quan ly ciia hang ban le ("khach hang") hudng tdi. Tai cac phong hpp tren khap the gidi, cac d p i nghien cuu t h i trudng phai x i i ly dU Ueu d u doan nhUng mat hang se ban chay trong tudng lai va dang de cd mpt cho tren gia hang hda, man h i n h va tren sach bao... TU quan trpng nhat ciia doan van tren la "dp bao". SU khac nhau giUa hai loai lpc ma t o i da de cap d tren la loai lpc nay dung trudc k h i dua hang hda ra t h i trudng. Nhiem vp ciia loai lpc nay la xac d i n h x e m t h i trudng can gi va khong can gi. Tdi gpi do la "Lpc trudc" Ngupc lai, khuyen n g h j va cong nghe t i m k i e m ma tdi dang tap t r u n g vao chinh la loai "lpc sau". Loai lpc sau diing de t i m kiem nhiing thU da ton tai ma ta quan tam, t i m ra nhUng thU tot (cd hen quan, t h u vi, nguyen Artists and Repertoire: Nghia den la Nghe si va Tiet muc, la bo p h | n chuyen phat trien tai nang va chuong trinh bieu dien, thu am cua nghe si trong cong ty bang dia. 216

Nhung ngudi tao thj hieu moi ban...) va bo qua, t h a m chi loai bo nhiing t h i i khong tot. T o i cho rang k h i chia m p i t h i i ra t h i trudng va de cho t h i tnioTig hia chpn co nghia la luc do loai lpc sau cWnh la ngon n g i i ciia t h i trudng. Chiing d i n h hudng hanh v i tieu diing va khuech dai no hon la t i m each dU doan ve no. Sau day la m p t so v i dp m i n h hoa: Loc trudc

Lpc sau

Bien tap vien

Blog

Quan ly cong ty bang nhac

Danh sach bai hat

Quan ly phong thu

Gidi thieu

Ngu*6i mua tai cura hang

Khach hang

Quan ly thi trtfdng

Khuyen nghj

Quang cao

Khach hang

Sp khac biet quan trpng la loai lpc sau khuech dai, chU khong phai la d u doan hanh v i tieu dung. Trong thi trudng Phan dau Ngan, k h i chi p h i phan phoi dat do va khoang trong tren gia hang hda co gidi han, t h i trudng phai sang lpc nhiing mat hang tot nhat. NhUng nha san xuat, ban le va quan ly t h i trudng phai d u bao nhu cau ciia con ngudi de cd the ban dupe hang. Tat nhien la hp khong phai luc nao cung doan dung. Cd rat nhieu mat hang xUng dang cd mat tren t h i trudng nhung b i bd qua va ngupc lai. Tuy nhien, nhUng ngudi ton tai dupe da chiing to kha nang quan trpng la doan biet t a m ly tieu diing.

217

CAl BUOI DAl Tuy nhien, trong t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi v o l chi p h i phan p h o i thap va gia de hang vo tan, chiing ta can phai tu" duy rang m o i thU se duoc bay ban. Do do, trong t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi, vai t r d cua bp lpc chuyen tU ngudi gac cong sang ngudi co van. Thay v i du doan t h i hieu, bp lpc sau n h u Google lai do ludng nd. Thay v i xep loai ngudi tieu dung theo dan so va dia ly, bp lpc sau n h u nhiing khuyen nghi ciia Netflix coi ngudi tieu dung la nhiing ca nhan thich dieu nay va khong thich dieu kia. Thay v i giU hang hda ngoai t h i trudng, bp lpc sau n h u blog MP3 tao ra t h i trudng cho hang hoa cd san bang each khuyen khich nhu cau. Jeff Jarvis gpi su khac biet nay la giUa " t h i trudng ngudi thU nhat va ngudi thU ba". Nhin chung, cac blog dang to ra la luc lupng nam giU sUc manh khuyen nghi. Do la nhUng dia chi dpc lap, l i n h dpng n h u PVRblog va Horticultural (mpt blog ve lam vudn), blog thuong mai n h u Gizmodo va Joystiq, va nhUng khuyen nghi ngau nhien ciia bat cU blogger nao ban vd tinh dpc dupe. (Dudng n h u co mpt moi lien he t u nhien giUa nhUng nha thong thai m u o n chia se kien thUc tren blog). Hp cd the thieu ten tud'i va tam n h i n nhung da tao dung dupe uy tin: nhiing ngudi dpc biet rang do la con ngudi thuc su ma hp cd the t i n dupe. Tat nhien, giong n h u bp lpc trudc khong hoan hao n h u nha t i m kiem tai nang khong phai luc nao ciing chpn dupe ngh? si va ban dupe dia - bp lpc sau ciing cd nhUng han che. Do bp lpc sau cd the do nhUng ngUdl khong chuyen nghiep thuc hien nen thudng thieu tinh 2)8

Nhung nguoi tao thj hieu mdi phe b i n h dpc lap va nhieu k h i co sp ac y ngau nhien. Hon nua, van de ciia bo lpc sau la nhirng phan hoi dupe dUa ra sau k h i da co su viec. Ket qua la, mac du nhirng khiem khuyet co the dupe cac bien tap vien chinh sUa va nhiing cap mat t i n h tudng soi xet, va tham chi co phan hoi tap the ciia bp lpc sau giup hieu dinh, nhung chung co the khong bao gid bien mat hoan toan. Dieu t h u v i la k h i xem xet vai tro ciia minh, t o i nhan ra rang m i n h dong vai tro ciia ca hai bp lpc. Vdi t u each la bien tap vien ciia m p t tap chi cd so trang han c h i , tdi thuc hien vai tro ciia mpt bp lpc trudc. T d i t u cho minh quyen duoc phan loai va d u doan xem bai bao nao xUng dang dupe dang. Nhung tap chi Wired ciing thuc hien nhieu muc gidi thieu hang hda, k h i do, t d i lai la bp lpc sau. Chung t o i t i m k i l m tir t h i gidi ben ngoai va lay ve n h i i n g thU tot nhat cho dpc gia ciia chiing t d i . Tdi cho rang mien la t h i trudng can su hUu han t h i van cd n h u cau d o i v d i bp lpc trudc cd Id si. Nhung thdi dai ma nhUng ngudi n h u t d i phai q u y i t d i n h t h i trudng can gi va khong can gi dang dan di vao d i vang. Khong lau nUa, m p i thU se dupe dua ra t h i trudng va CP hdi thuc su se la hia chpn n i nhiing thU do.

219

KINH TE HOC C A I DUOI D A l KHAN HIEM, DUTHUA VA SU CAO CHUNG CUA QUY LUAT 80/20

Mua he nam 1897, m o t nha thong thai ngudi Italia ten la Vilfredo Pareto dong ciia ngoi trong van phong trudng dai hpc cua ong ta tai Thuy SI de nghien cUu ve sU giau co va t h u nhap ciia nude A n h trong the ky 19. Do la t h d i ky ciia Karl Marx va cau hoi ve sU phan bo ciia cai van chua cd Idi giai. Pareto phat hien rang sU phan phoi ciia cai dien ra khong dong deu tai A n h - hau het ciia cai do mdt thieu so ngudi nam giU. Khi ong t i n h toan ty le chinh xac, ong phat hien rang khoang 20% dan so sd hUu 80% ciia cai. Quan trong hon, ong so sanh con so nay vdi cac nude va k h u vpc khac va thay ty le do khong thay dd'i. Dieu ma Pareto da phat hien ra la cd m d t m o i lien he toan hoc cd the d u doan dUdc giUa su phan phoi ciia cai va dan so. Ong ta goi dieu nay la Luat ciia 220

Kinh tg hoc cai duoi dai Nhom thieu so. Dieu nay dung d m o i thoi dai va m o i dat nude. Pareto la m o t nha k i n h te hoc l o i lac, nhung it co kha nang dien giai, do do khong nhieu ngudi hieu dUOc tam quan trong trong phat kien ciia ong. Ong tiep nic viet nhieu bai luan van ve gidi cam quyen, dieu khien ong phai tra gia bang mang song dudi thdi phat xit Mussolini. Nhung ly thuyet ve phan phoi khong deu tiep nic sUc song va ket luan ciia Pareto gid day duoc biet den la Quy luat 80/20. Nam 1949, nha ngon ngU hoc dai hoc Harvard George Zipf t i m ra quy tac tuong t u trong sti dung ngon ngU. Ong t h l y rang trong k h i mot so u i duoc sti dung rat thudng xuyen t h i nhieu n i it k h i duoc sii dung. Mac du dieu nay khong gay ngac nhien nhung Zipf cung cho rang mdi quan he tren la cd the d u bao va thuc te giong vol dudng cong ciia cai ciia Pareto. Tan so sU dung mdt n i tuong duong vol mdt chia cho thU n i sU dung ciia n i do trong tong s6 t i i . Co nghia la n i thU hai xuat hien bang khoang 1/2 n i thU nhat, va n i thU ba bang 1/3 n i thU nhat... Day duoc goi la Quy luat Zipf. Zipf phat hien rang dieu tren ciing dung d o i v d i nhieu hien niong khac, tU thong ke dan so den cac nganh cong nghiep. Ong phan tich giay ket hon tai k h u vuc rdng 20 day nha d Philadenphia va thay rang 70% giay ket hdn la giUa nhUng ngudi song d nhiing n o i xa khong qua 30% khoang each tren. Sau do, cac nha nghien cUu da phat trien quy luat tren doi vol tat ca m o i thU, u i nguyen t i i trong nganh nhua den quy m d cac thanh pho. Tam diem ciia ket 221

CAI DUOI DAI luan tren la tinh pho bien ciia quy luat phan p h o i siic manh, tire so do 1/x ma Pareto lan dau tien da phat m i n h trong do t h i ciia cai ciia m i n h . Luat siic manh la tap hop cac do t h i ma ban co the t i m thay trong cuon sach nay, n i van de sinh hoc hay doanh so ban sach. Cdi dudi ddi chinh la luat siic manh khong b i cat bed su khan hiem trong phan phoi, n h u thieu gia de hang hay khong d i i kenh phan phoi. Do do t h i chi t i e m can chU khong bao gid cat tnic hoanh, nen dudng cong do se keo dai den vd t | n . Do la dudng cong "Cdi dudi ddf ma t d i da lay ten de dat ten cho cuon sach nay. Doi v d i t h i trudng tieu diing, dudng cong sUc manh se tiep nic co ba dieu kien: 1. Su da dang (cd nhieu hang hoa) 2. Su bat b i n h dang (mpt so cd chat lupng tot hon so khac) 3. Tac ddng ciia mang Internet n h u su truyen mieng va uy t i n cd tac dung khuech dai sU khac biet ve chat lucmg. Ndi theo each khac, quy luat phan p h o i xuat hien khi co su khac biet, su chenh lech va tac dpng khac n h u uy t i n de khuech dai nhiing mat hang tot va giam thieu nhUng mat hang khong tot. Ket qua tren dUdc Pareto gpi la "su mat can bang co the d u doan dupe" ciia t h j trudng, van hda va xa hpi: ngudi giau ngay cang giau hPn. Khong can phai ndi, nhiing quy luat tren da Ipt ta phan l d n the gidi ma chung ta dang song. 222

Mnn te hoc cai duoi dai

SU K H O K H A N T R O N G P H A N PHOI D A BOP MEO T H I T R U O N G N H U T H E N A O ? De nghien cuu quy luat siic manh trong the gioi hien thUc, hay xem xet doanh t h u ban ve cua Hollywood. Neu sap xep du" heu theo each thong thudng, chung ta se t h u dupe ket qua quen thuoc: mpt vai p h i m ban chay d phia tren cua dudng cong va phan ldn p h i m (khong ban chay) d phan dudi ben phai. Bdi v i tat ca cac dudng cong bieu t h i sire manh deu co h i n h dang n h u vay k h i dupe sap xep giong nhau nen can co su so sanh de t i m ra su khac biet r d h o n giiia chung. Khi ve dudng cong tren do thi, ban can ve mpt dudng t h i n g doc n i tren xuong dudi. Dp doc php thuoc vao ning mat hang, nhung cho d u do la mat hang sup hay mat hang cua cac cong ty niem yet tren t h i trudng chiing khoan, t h i hinh dang n i nhien ciia mot t h i trudng cung la dudng thang. Tuy nhien, trong the gidi hien thuc, dudng cong do khong giong n h u vay m p t chut nao. Thay vao do, nd bat dau bang dudng thang va sau do chuc xuong. Trong trudng hpp doanh thu p h i m , nd trong giong do t h i d trang ben. Hay x e m dieu gi xay ra xung quanh con so 100. Doanh t h u giam xuong nhanh chong cho den k h i cham 0 d khoang 500. (Thiic ra, doanh t h u thap nhat k h i chieu d rap la 423 dola ciia p h i m The Dark Hours, m p t 223

CAI BUOI DAI bp p h i m k i n h d i cua Canada dupe l a m v d i ngan sach eo hep va nhiing dien vien khong ten tudi. Theo m p t sd ngudi da tung xem t h i p h i m nay khong he d d chut nao). Dieu gi da xay ra? Cd phai rihiing bp p h i m dot nhien cd chat lupng k e m d i tai so 100? Lieu hp co dung l a m p h i m sau 500 bp phim? Hay co van de ve danh gia? Doanh thu ban ve cua Hollywood, 2005 $1,000,000,000 $100,000,000 $10,000,000 $1,000,000 $100,000 $10,000 $1,000 Tong $100 doanh $10 thu $1

Doanh thu dir kie'ntheo mi& hinh cunig/c&H

Doanh Sure tÂŁ

10 Thur hang phim Dang b u o n la cau tra I d i la khong phai n h u tren. Khong co van de gi ve danh gia. Chat l u p n g p h i m khong he kem di sau con sd 100 (cd the con tot hon). Cac nha san xuat cung khong dung san xuat sau 500 bp p h i m . Tren thuc te, cd khoang 13 nghin bp p h i m dupe chieu d nude My m o i nam, day la chua ke cd hang ngan bp p h i m nude ngoai khong duoc chieu tai My. Thpc ra, nhUng bp p h i m sau thU t u 100 khong nhan dupe su quan tam nhieu ciia cac rap. N o i theo each 224

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai khac, "kha nang cong chieu" tai My chi vao khoang 100 p h i m / n a m . Nguyen ly k i n h te ciia cac rap chieu p h i m ctia phuong that nghiet nga. Khong can biet la bp p h i m co chat lupng hay khong tai Bombay, p h i m dupe chieu tai Stamford, Connecticut hay bat cii" noi nao khac phai dii hay de co the t h u hiit vai nghin khan gia den r a p / man. Thong thuong can phai co chi p h i quang cao Ion, hpp dong bieu dien va m p t hay hai ngoi sao de co the lam dupe n h u the. NhUng bp p h i m khong co d i i tieu chi tren se khong tim dupe dudng day den cac rap ldn. Tren thuc te, dudng day nay se loai bd nhiing bp p h i m khong mang lai hieu qua k i n h te. Chiing cat dudng cong ciia do t h i . Cac nha l a m p h i m khong diing lai d do; m p t

dudng

cong bong ma se tiep tuc chay n i cho b i cat, cho thay rang neu tiep nic dupe t r i n h chieu, nhiing bp p h i m ciia hp se mang lai doanh thu. Trong "the gidi hien thuc", nhung bp p h i m do bien mat k h d i t h i trudng. Ndi m p t each gian dPn, chung khong n i chet. Cdi dudi dai se trong n h u sau:

225

CAI DUOI DAI R6 rang la nun' t h i i khong te n h u t o i da mo ta. Neu may man, m o t so p h i m thuc sU hay dUOc chieu tai Sundance se dUOc cac cUa hang thue san don. Hau n h u do la nhung bo p h i m nr thU 100 den 500 co doanh t h u thap, nhung khong bao gid cham ngucmg khong. So con lai, n i 500 den i t nhat la 13 nghin t h i sao? Dang tiec la hau het so nay khong duoc cong chieu tai rap. Neu vay, chiing khong co doanh thu. Co nghia la chiing khong ton tai theo each hieu ciia phan trudc. Tat nhien la tren thuc te, chiing dang t o n tai. Chi la v i chung khong xuat hien trong nganh p h i m anh do gia t r i ciia p h i m dua tren lang kinh rap chieu phim. Vay nhiing bd p h i m nay d i ve dau? Hau het chiing khong vuot ra khdi cac lien hoan p h i m hay cac phong chieu t u nhan. Mot so p h i m xuat hien tren truyen h i n h hay duoc lam thanh dia DVD neu nha lam p h i m dat dUOc thoa thuan ban quyen am nhac va cac giay phep khac. Mot so khac cd the dude cung cap mien p h i tren mang. Cd ve n h u bUc tranh nay kha u am, nhung nhUng bd p h i m b i day ra khdi kenh phan phoi, n h u dUOc lam thanh DVD hay dUa len Internet, dang tao thanh mot t h i trudng m d i . Chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h duoc ghi thanh DVD dang t r d thanh l i n h vuc cd toe do tang trudng nhanh nhat lien quan den DVD. T h i trudng bang hinh tren Inernet mac d u m d i h i n h thanh nhung van con nhieu tiem nang. V d i viec cac rap chieu p h i m dang mat khach va doanh t h u DVD va ban le tang len, cong chieu tai rap khong con la each duy nhat de tiep can t h i trudng. 226

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai Bai hoc d day la: ket luan ciia chiing ta cho rang n h u cau doi v d i p h i m anh dot nhien diing lai tai mdt diem nao do, thUc chat chi la do con ngudi tao ra trong qua ttinh t i n h toan chi p h i cong dien. Ndi each khac, hay tao ra lUa chpn khong han che va tao dieu kien cho khach hang de dang t i m thay nhiing gi hp muon, ban se thay rang n h u cau se tiep tuc phat trien tai cac thi trudng

ngach

chua bao gid dude k h a m pha - n h u

video, karaoke, t r u y e n hinh... N e t f l i x da thay d d i nguyen tac k i n h te qua viec cung cap san pham

ngach

va qua do l a m thay d d i hieu biet ciia chung ta ve viec khach hang thpc sU m u o n gi. Dieu nay ciing diing d d i v d i hau het cac mat hang khac. Trong t h i trudng sach, Barnes & Noble phat hien rang 1,2 trieu sach d phia dudi dudng cong chi chiem 1,796 danh t h u ciia cac cUa hang, nhung chiem 10% doanh t h u ban tren mang bn.com. He thong PRX, n o i sd hUu m p t t h u vien cong cpng khong i d cho chuong ttinh phat thanh tren mang, cho biet cd 80% npi dung it dupe quan t a m chiem 50% doanh thu. Tai A n Dp, m p t t r o n g nhUng t r a n g m a n g l d n nhat cung cap chuong dien thoai la rediff.com cho thay: n h u cau ddi vdi nhac chuong vupt k h o i Top 20 chuong dang tren bao chi vdi nhung lenh t i m kiem nhac chuong m d i tren mang. 80% doanh t h u Top 20 nhac chuong tren bao sut giam con 40% k h i ngudi diing t i m k i e m tren mang trong sd gan 20 n g h i n bai hat. T h i t r u d n g am nhac dang b i tac dpng l d n . Theo Nielsen SoundScan, trudc day, nhung album m d i chiem 227

CAI DUOI DAl 63% doanh t h u nam 2005; con lai la album cu. Tren mang, con so nay dao chieu: am nhac m d i chiem khoang m o t phan ba doanh t h u va cac ban nhac cii chiem hai phan ba.

QUY LUAT 80/20 Quy luat phan bo noi tieng nhat ciia Pareto/Zipf la Quy luat 80/20, thudng duoc diing de giai thich rang 20% san pham chiem 80% doanh thu, hay 20% thdi gian ciia chiing ta chiem 80% nang suat, hay bat c i i su so sanh nao cd dac diem n h o m thieu so cd tac dong vUOt t r o i so v o l n h o m do so. Quy luat 80/20 n d i tren b i hieu sai v i ba ly do: thu nhat, khong bao gid co con so chinh xac la 80/20. Hau het cac nghien cUu ciia t d i cho thay con so thuc la 8 0 / 10 (chua den 10% san p h a m chiem 80% doanh so). Neu ban lo ngai rang 80/10 khong cong d i i 100 t h i ban da t i m ra nham lan t h i i hai. 80 va 20% ciia cac thong so, do do khong nhat thiet phai cong d i i 100. Thong so t h i i nhat la doanh thu, thong so t h i i hai la so luong san pham. ChUa het, hien chUa cd bat cU tieu chuan nao bieu t h i m o i quan he giUa hai thong so tren, hay thong so nao la hang so. Ndi rang m o t t h i trudng cd h i n h t h u 80/10 (10% san pham chiem 80% doanh so) cd the giong n h u 95/20 (20% hang hda chiem 95% doanh thu). Cuoi cung, quy luat tren b i hieu sai k h i duoc ap 228

Kinh te hpc cai duoi dai dung de mieu ta nhung hien tuc/ng co ban chat khac nhau. D i n h nghia nguyen t h i i y la ve san p h a m va doanh thu, nhung Quy luat nay lai dupe van dung v d i san p h a m va l p i nhuan. Mdt trong nhung thieu sot a i a quy luat nay la nhan thuc rang 20% hang hoa chiem hau het doanh thu. Dieu nay cho thay quy luat 80/20 da khuyen khich viec hla chpn hang hda, b d i v i neu dp" doan dung, hang hoa liia chpn se anh hudng l d n den cong viec k i n h doanh a i a ban. Dieu do giai thich tai sao t d i cho rang Cdi duoi ddi da dat dau cham het cho quy luat tren. Quy luat nay chi la su* cong nhan rang m p t sd mat hang ban chay hon mdt sd khac, dieu cung diing d d i v d i t h i trudng Cdi dudi

ddi

Tuy nhien, dieu ma Cdi dudi ddi khuyen khich la khong nen le thupc vao quy luat tren. Tham chi neu 20% hang hda chiem 80% doanh t h u t h i ciing khong cd ly do gi de khong ban cac hang hda con lai. Trong t h j trudng Cdi dudi ddi, do chi p h i l u u kho thap nen van cd l y do de ban m p i thU, bat chap doanh sd ciia san p h a m do n h u the nao. Biet dau vdi cong cu t i m kiem va khuyen nghi tot, 80% san p h a m ban kem se thay the 20% san p h a m ban chay. Do nha ban le truyen thong phai tra chi p h i l u u kho ldn nen san p h a m khong ban dupe se khong cd l p i nhuan. Do do, hau n h u tat ca l p i nhuan deu do 20% san p h a m ban chay mang lai. T d i da chi ra d phan dau 229

CAI DUOI DAl ciia bang dudi day m o h i n h ly tudng cho ngudi ban le truyen thong. Sir phat trien cua quy luat 80/20 Nha ban le thong thuong San phim Doanh so Loi nhuSn

Nha ban le Cai dudi dai S3n phim Doanh s6 Loi nhuan

Cac san phim chi ban tren mang

Tuy nhien, d o i v d i nha b a n le Cdi dudi ddi, cau chuyen lai rat khac. Thif nhat, hay gia thuyet rang kho hang gid day l d n hon m u d i lan, do do 20% san pham gia thuyet chiem hau het doanh t h u doi v d i ngudi ban le t h i i nhat chi chiem 2% kho hang ciia ngudi thU hai, n h u phan cuoi ciia bang phia tren da chi ra. Cot doanh thu thU hai phan anh quy luat phan phoi. 2% san pham hit van chiem doanh so ldn, trong trudng hop nay la 50%. 8% tiep theo chiem 25% doanh thu. Cuoi ciing, 90% con lai chiem 25% doanh t h u (mac du day chi la gia thuyet nhung nhUng so lieu nay tuong doi sat vdi thong ke ciia Rhapsody va Netflix). Tuy nhien, quy luat k i n h te Cdi dudi ddi soi sang d cot thU ba, lpi nhuan: do chi p h i l u u kho thap nen m o i san p h a m ban k e m tiep theo co l p i nhuan l d n hdn nhieu so v d i t h i trudng truyen thong. 230

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai Chung ta hay lay t h i trudng DVD lam v i du. Cot dudi day cho thay hieu qua k i n h te cua viec ban DVD tai tap doan ban le Wal-Mart. Quy luat kinh te ban le DVD 1 .... L

80% ! **jflfr_ 50%

j**** ^ *"

I f ! _ 30%

._ E

1 1 10 12 14

_ 10% .o% _-ifl% _. -20% 30% 20 22

Thdi gian ban (thang)

Dieu ban thay d day la hieu qua ciia cac san pham mdi phat hanh thuc su rat thap. Cac phong t h u ddi gia t i i 17-19 dola cho m o t dia DVD va cac nha ban le ldn (Wal-Mart, BestBuy) ban chiing v d i gia 15-17 dola trong tuan dau tien va tuan t h i i hai, lo trung b i n h 2 dola mot DVD. (Lo thuc te con l d n hon). Sau thang t h i i nhat, gia b a n b u o n (cho cac ciia hang) ciia DVD giam nhanh h o n gia ban le (cho ngudi tieu diing) va c h i i n g dan mang l a i l p i nhuan. T u y nhien, gan 80% doanh so DVD ban le la t i i cac dia ban trong 2 thang dau tien, trudc k h i chiing mang lai I d i nhuan dang ke. Tai sao cac ciia hang ban dia m d i re 231

CAI DUOI DAI n h u vay? Bdl v i doi v o l cac cua hang l d n t h i chiing cd vai trd n h u chirn mdi keo khach hang mua cac dia khac co l o i nhuan cao hon. Cac nha phan p h o i DVD khuyen khich dieu nay bang each cho phep tra lai cac dia m d i khong ban dupe de giam thiet hai cho ngudi ban le. Mac d u dieu nay cd y nghia d d i v o l nha ban le ldn cd san pham khac ban k e m nhung nd lai cd anh hudng tao ra gia ca cho cac cUa hang khac, bao gom ca nhiing nha ban le DVD chuyen biet n h u Blockbuster. Cac nha ban le day l p i nhuan ban san p h a m m d i xuong, lam cho hieu qua k i n h te ciia Phan Dau giam d i . Do do, viec Blockbuster dang phai vat l p n de t o n tai khong co gi l a m la. Tuy nhien, neu ban day n h u cau x u d i xuong

phan

duoi, tao ra m d t t h i trudng khong p h u thupc vao san pham m d i t h i ban co the nang cao dang ke Idi nhuan. N h u ban da thay trong bieu do d trang trudc, dia cang cii t h i l o i nhuan cang cao. Dieu do giai thich tai sao nha ban le Cdi dudi ddi co l p i the - hp cd gia de chUa cac dia cii. No cung cho thay tai sao nhiing khuyen nghi va bp lpc khac quan t r p n g n h u vay trong t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi. Bang each khuyen k h i c h ngudi tieu diing chuyen t i i the gidi hit (chi p h i cao) den the gidi ngach (chi p h i thap), nhiing nha ban le thong thai cd t i e m nang de tang hieu qua m p t each CP ban. (Day la dieu Netflix dang lam: mua re san p h a m m d i bat chap viec cac khach hang khong hai long ve sp thieu hang va t r i hoan - b d l v i dieu nay cho phep Netflix duy t r i Idi nhuan). 232

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai Phan tren eta giai thich tai sao cot loi nhuan Cdi dudi ddi cho thay su phan p h o i d6ng deu l o i nhuan so v d i phan doanh t h u . Cac san p h a m Cdi dudi ddi co the khong chiem phan l d n doanh t h u nhung do chi p h i re nen chung mang lai I d i nhuan rat cao k h i chi p h i l u u kho gan n h u khong dang ke. Do do quy luat 80/20 cd ba diem m d i trong t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi: 1. Ban co the cung cap nhieu hang hoa hon. 2. Do viec t i m k i e m hang hoa de h o n nhieu (nhd khuyen nghi va cac bo lpc) nen doanh t h u trai deu h o n giUa san p h a m hit va san pham

ngach.

3. Do hieu qua l a n h te cua san pham ngach gan n h u giong v d i san p h a m hit nen mang lai l p i nhuan dong deu. Mac d u quy luat tren van t o n tai nhung trong t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi, hieu luc ciia nd giam d i .

LIEU PHAN DUOI DAI HON CO N G H I A P H A N D A U N G A N DI? Mpt trong nhUng cau hdi dat ra vdi toi khi nghien cUu sau h d n ve t h j t r u d n g Cdi dudi ddi la ve tac dpng ciia viec tang chiing loai hang hda d o i v d i toan bp dudng cong n h u cau. K h i nhUng nha tap hpp co the ban ngay cang n h i e u m a t hang, l a m dai t h e m

phan

dudi t h i lieu p h a n D a u cd b j ngan lai? Hay dai them? Hay k h o n g dd'i?

233

CAI DUOI DAI Co ba khia canh giup day n h u cau x u o i xuong duoi, t d i san pham

phan

ngach. T h i i nhat la su da dang co

san ciia san pham. Neu ban cung cap cho ngudi tieu diing m u o i su lua chon, ho se chon m o t trong m u o i san p h a m do. Neu ban dua cho ho 1.000 san pham, nhu cau doi vol mudi san pham dau tien se giam xuong. ThU hai la viec "chi p h i t i m kiem", nic chi p h i n i viec t i m k i e m tren thuc te den cac khuyen nghi va bo loc khac, se giam xuong. Cuoi cung viec cung cap san pham gioi thieu, n h u cho nghe t h i i 30 giay doi vol mpt bai hat hay cho dpc m p t phan ciia cu6n truyen tren mang. D i e u nay l a m g i a m r u i ro t r o n g m u a ban, khuyen k h i c h nguoi tieu dung t r d nen mao niem hon. Chiing ta co mpt so each giai thich sp viec nay bang dU heu. ThU nhat la so sanh mpt t h i trudng cung cap chiing loai tuong ddi han che vdi t h i trudng cung cap nhieu hon cac san pham cung loai. ThU hai la theo doi mpt nha tap hop/ban le Cdi dudi ddi trong mpt khoang thdi gian, xem dieu gi xay ra k h i kho hang ciia hp tang len. Cach nUa la xem tac dpng ciia viec ha thap chi p h i t i m k i e m tren mang, dua ra so sanh ciing chiing loai vol kho hang truyen thong. Mpt nghien ciiu nam 2005 ciia dai hpc MIT dupe Erik Brynjolfsson php trach, ngudi trudc day da nghien ciiu kho hang Cdi dudi ddi ciia Amazon, t i m hieu tac dpng ciia dieu nay tai mpt ciia hang ban le quan ao p h p nU. Cong ty nay k i n h doanh ca h i n h thUc tai ciia hang va tren mang vdi cung m p t loai san p h a m va gia ca. SU

234

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai khac biet la d tren mang, no co dung cu t i m kiem, de xem cac san pham, chung loai va co dua ra de nghi "xep hang". Ket qua la cac khach hang - t h a m chi ca n h i i n g khach hang t r e n mang va m u a theo catalog - co x u hudng m u a hang d phan sau ciia Cdi dudi. 80% hang hoa d p h i a sau chiem 15,7% doanh t h u d o i v d i ciia hang, n h u n g con so nay qua mang la 28,8%. N h u vay, u i cong thUc 20/80, cd the thay v d i ciia hang b i n h thudng, cong thUc nay la 84/20 va qua mang la 71/20. Do la tac dong ciia viec giam chi p h i t i m kiem trong ciing mot kho hang. De do tac dpng doi v o l cac kho hang khac nhau v d i chenh l i n h ldn, chung t o i tien hanh so sanh giUa m p t ngudi ban le truyen thong va ngudi ban hang tren mang v d i kho hang khong gidi han. Thuc te, do la su so sanh giUa hai kieu ban hang: truyen thong va tren mang. Chiing t d i quyet dinh chpn nganh giai t r i v i nganh nay tuong doi phat trien tren mang, de cd the so sanh tuong doi khach quan v o l so li?u cd san. Chiing t o i so sanh ca am nhac va dia DVD. Thay v i chpn m d t nha ban le truyen thong, chiing toi sii dung dU lieu trong nganh nay do Nielsen cung cap - mang SoundScan d o i v d i am nhac va DVDScan cho p h i m anh. (Phai cd mpt so dieu chinh can thiet de cd the so sanh mdt each chinh xac. Trong am nhac, chung t d i phai t i m each so sanh doanh so ban album thong thudng

235

CAI DUOI DAI va ban bai hat tren mang, va sau do la doanh so ban le v o l ban hang theo dang ky. V o l dia DVD, chiing t o i so sanh doanh so va so heu thue don ban v o l thue theo dang ky tren mang. Mac d i i van de phuong phap khong phai la chii de ciia cuon sach nay nhung day la van de can thiet trong x i i ly so heu, n h u ban rung bai hat tren mang, nham giam thieu sai so va ve duOng cong mot each chinh xac nhat). Vdi mot so dieu chinh, ket qua that dang k i n h ngac. Dudng cong tren mang co do thoai h o n rat nhieu. Trung binh, mot album - ngoai top 1000 - duoc ban qua mang gap 2 lan so v d i tai ciia hang. M o i DVD ngach

- cung ngoai top 1000 - co do pho' bien tren

mang gap ba lan so v d i tai ciia hang. Mot each so sanh khac la xem nhUng tac pham hit giam tac dong doi vol t h i trudng tren mang n h u the nao. Day la so lieu ve am nhac. Tai ciia hang, 1000 album hit chiem 80% doanh thu. (Thuc te, tai cac ciia hang ban le truyen thong, 100 album hit chiem 90% doanh thu). Nguoc lai, tren mang, 1000 album do chi chiem i t hon mot phan ba doanh thu. Noi each khac, mdt niia t h i trudng tren mang la cac album ngoai top 5000.

LIEU CAI DUOI DAI LAM TANG NHU CAU H A Y C H i P H A N BO LAI? Lieu Cdi dudi ddi lam ldn chiec banh hay chi chia lai nd? Noi each khac, v d i luong hang hoa trong kho 236

Kinh t l hoc cai duoi dai tang nhieu lan, cac nha ban le tren mang co khuyen khich khach hang mua nhieu hon hay chi mua it h o n cac san p h a m hit? Noi chung, cau tra Idi p h u thuoc vao tung l i n h vuc: m o t so mat hang se khuyen khich mua nhieu hon k h i san pham

ngach trd nen pho bien,

mot so mat hang lai khong. Mac d i i su chii y va kha nang mua sam ciia con ngudi la hUu han nhung ban van co the danh nhieu thoi gian va tien bac hon. Mot so hinh thUc giai tri, n h u am nhac, khong tao ra su "loai trU" trong chu y ciia con nguoi, co nghia la ban van co the nghe nhac trong khi lam viec khac. V i du, mOt so ngudi giai thich ve su tang len so gid xem truyen h i n h trong thap nien 70 va 80 la do the he do da l d n len a i n g vdi tivi n h u mdt phan cupc song ciia hp; k h i su m d i la khong con, tivi chuyen n i phuong tien cd t i n h "loai t n i " sang phuong ti?n khong cd t i n h loai t n i , do do chung ta xem tivi nhieu hon. Nhiing phuong tien truyen thong khac, n h u nhan tin, doi hdi t h d i gian, nhung chiing cd the co hieu qua va mang lai sp thoa man l d n hon. Thuc te, chiing ta luon phai t i m each de tieu t h u lupng thong t i n ldn, xem cac trang ket qua t i m kiem tren Google va viet blog. Cd the bay gid t d i khong dpc nhieu h o n trudc day, nhung nhUng gi t d i dpc cd y nghia hPn nhd nhung bp lpc tot (phu hpp v o l sd thich ciia t d i hon) giup lpa chpn trudc nhUng gi t d i se dpc. Cung v i nhUng gi t o i dpc cd trpng tam nen t a m bao quat ciia t d i cung dupe nang len. Theo nghia nao do, t d i da nen su chii y trong k h i dpc. 237

CAI DUOI DAI Tuy nhien, neu ban ket hap giua su" khan hiem nguon t h u nhap co the sii dung va sU khan hiem ve thdi gian t h i mot so phuong tien thong t i n dai chiing khong co tinh "doi khang" lai t r d nen doi khang. Ly do moi ngudi xem nhieu tivi v i khong phai tra tien. NhUng neu ban phai tra tien m o i k h i xem, t h i chac chan ban se phai tap t r u n g de xem. Theo quan diem ciia ngudi tieu diing, dieu nay cho thay l o i the ciia dich v u mien phi trong viec tao co hpi kham pha mien p h i phan sau ciia Cdi dudi. Ban se tieu diing nhieu hPn neu dieu do khong budc ban phai tra tien. Ket luan d day la: Sp chii y ciia con ngudi co the md rdng hon k h i khong phai tra tien. Tac dpng CP ban ciia Cdi dudi ddi la chuyen sp chu y t d i cac thi

trudng

ngdch trong gidi han nhu cau thong qua sp thoa man doi vdi ket qua t i m k i l m . Chung ta khong phai tra nhieu t i i n cho viec do.

LIEU GIA CA TANG LEN HAY GIAM XUONG 6 P H A N DUOI? Tdi thudng xuyen nhan dupe cau hdi ve tac dpng ciia Cdi dudi doi vdi gia ca. Lieu gia cd giam xuong d phan sau ciia Cdi dudi? Hay lai tang len, v i hang hda co mUc dp tieu t h u hep va cu the se cd sUc hut manh hdn doi vdi khach hang? Cau tra Idi la dieu do p h u thupc vao tung loai san pham. Mpt each de danh gia la phan biet giUa t h i 238

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai trudng "muon" va t h i trudng "can", moi t h i trUdtig n h u vay co tac dong khac nhau doi vdi gia ca. "Thi trudng can" la nhirng t h i trudng ma khach hang biet rang hp dang t i m kiem va khong the t i m d dau khac ngoai tren mang. V i dp, do la mpt cuon sach khoa hoc tUPng doi khd ndi ve mdt van de ma ban quan tam. Khi rim thay no, ban se khong qua quan tam den gia ca. Ban co the thay dieu nay trong chinh sach giam gia ciia Amazon. Cong ty nay giam gia 30-40% cho sach ban chay, sau do giam khuyen mai t i i t i i den 0 doi vol nhung sach co doanh sd hang tram nghin. Ngupc lai, am nhac va cac h i n h thuc giai t r i khac la nhung t h i trudng "muon" dien hinh. Vol gia ca hdp ly, ban co the thU nghe mdt ban nhac m d i hay kham pha phan sau ciia Cdi dudi ma khong lo t o n tien. Do do, nhieu cong ty am nhac da t h i i nghiem giam gia doi vol cac bai hat cu hay nhiing bai hat i t dupe biet den. Theo do, gia doi vol am nhac se t p dpng giam xuong ty le thuan vol sp nd'i tieng ciia tac pham. Google da dua ra dau gia t u dpng d o i vol tiing quang cao dua tren n i khoa va eBay ciing dUa ra dau gia vdi tat ca mat hang. Cau tang t h i gia cung se tang. Mpt t h i trudng da dang ve gia ca vdi hoat dpng thuc sp hieu qua se dan den sU giam doanh t h u tiem tien va tao ra mpt dudng cong cd dp m d ldn hon. Tuy nhien, it nhat la vdi am nhac, dieu nay se l a m mat d i nhung lpi the ciia mo h i n h m p t gia (nhu iTunes dUa ra gia co dinh la 0,99 dola) va chong l a i cac nha ban le CD

239

CAl DUOI DAl truyen thong do i t co kha nang dieu chinh gia. Khi nganh am nhac gap kho khan, no se t i m ra nhirng mo h i n h k i n h doanh m d i . K h i do, chting ta se cd d i i li?u day d i i hon de tra I d i cau h d i tren.

NHUNG "HE TH6NG SIEU NH6" CUA C A I D U O I D A I Mpt trong nhirng dac diem ciia quy luat phan phoi siic manh la t i n h "pho' quat", nghia la d i i ban cd md rdng van de ra xa den dau t h i quy luat nay van diing. Cac nha toan hoc gQi hien tuong nay la "tinh diing don nhat trong pham v i da cap", nhung y nghia ciia no la Cdi dudi ddi duoc tao thanh b d i nhieu Cdi dudi nho, moi Cdi dudi la m p t the gidi nhd. Khi nghien cuu ky dU lieu, ban co the thay dudng cong sUc manh diing la tap hpp ciia tat ca cac dudng cong nho ciia cac dong nhac. T h i trudng am nhac dupe tao thanh n i hang nghin thi trudng

ngdeh nho va khi

tap hpp cac dudng cong nho vdi nhau se tao thanh mpt dudng cong Cdi dudi ddi. Nhung neu n h i n ky t h i moi dudng cong se co phan dau va phan dudi. Vi dp, toi da cat Cdi dudi ddi am nhac ciia Rhapsody theo dong nhac, xac dinh v i t r i ning ban nhac trung binh theo so lupng tai xuong ciia ning dong nhac nhu bang dudi day. Sau do tdi cat mpt dong nhac la AfroCuban Jazz - de ve dudng cong ciia dong nhac do. Dieu ban n h i n thay la tap hpp trung b i n h cac dong 240

Mnn te noc cai duoi dai nhac se tao thanh Cdi duoi ddi, va trong m o i dong nhac lai co mpt Cdi dudi ddi nho. Dieu nay dien ra trong toan bo nganh am nhac, nic mpt dudng cong ldn chUa cac dudng cong nho va cac dudng cong nho hon. Cai duoi nho trong Cai duoi ldn

Thi loai (chi g6m chir cÂŁi diu A)

(Ngudn: Rhapsody)

Dieu nay cung dung d o i v d i cac t h i trudng khac, nr sach den blog. Peter Hirshberg, m p t nha quan ly l a m vifc tai cong ty t i m k i e m blog Technorati, mieu ta sp ndi len cua "NhUng Cdi dudi ddi theo nganh" ma cong ty nay dang theo ddi, cho thay su p h d quat ciia quy luat phan p h o i sUc manh d d i v d i cac blog, tU blog ve an uong den blog ve day con. Ong ndi: " K h i ban sii dung mpt lang k i n h de n h i n anh sang trang, ban se thay mpt quang p h d gom cac tia sang Cdi dudi ddi hien ra". Su xep loai chi thuc su cd y nghia ddi v d i ning loai chU khong phai ddi v d i toan he thong. 241

CAl DUOI DAI Tai sao dieu nay lai quan trong? Thu nhat, no cho thay rang cac bo loc chi co tac dung trong tung the loai chii khong phai toan bp t h i trudng. ThU hai, no giai thich mot nghien l y ro rang ciia Cdi dudi ddi. Hinh dang d i xuong tir tren cao ciia dudng cong phan phoi siic manh la do tac dong ciia cac dudng ngach phan h o i su quang ba b d i khach hang d i n h hudng su lua chpn ciia ngudi tieu diing, l a m cho nhiing san pham cd uy t i n ngay cang cd uy t i n hon va mat uy t i n ngay cang mat uy t i n hon. Thanh cong tiep noi thanh cong. Trong ly thuyet mang, dieu do tao ra hien tupng ngudi thang gianh dupe tat ca, cd nghia la dang ton tai nhUng co may tao ra hit dang ghet. T o m lai, nhiing bp lpc ngay nay lam cho sp quang ba thong qua khach hang co sUc manh hon do co nhieu ngudi tham gia danh gia nhieu loai hang hoa hon. Lieu dieu do cd lam cho dudng cong sUc manh t r d nen doc hon, l a m tang khoang each giUa nhiing san pham hit va san pham

ngach hon la nham tao ra tac dpng can

bang? Ndi each khac, tai sao he thong khuyen nghi tren mang cd vai trd quan trpng trong viec keo dai Cdi dudi, tai sao nd khong l a m ngupc lai: day n h u cau ve phan Dau, l a m tang sU chenh lech giUa san pham hit va ngach? Do la dieu ban cd the hy vpng k h i tac dpng ciia mang t r d nen manh me hdn con trong thuc te, dieu chung ta thay trong t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi la mpt dudng cong cd dp doc nhd va i t khac biet hon giUa thi trudng hit va thi trvtdng

ngach. 242

Mnn te hoc cai duoi dai Ly do la nhUng bo loc va cac khuyen nghi co tac dung ldn nhat d thi trudng

ngach,

trong cung mat

hang. Giiia cac mat hang vdi nhau, tac dung ciia chiing khong ro. Co nhiing san pham hit trong mot mat hang va trd thanh san pham chinh trong mat hang do. Do la mot ngoai le. Nhieu san pham thong thudng khac dupe xep d phan giUa va theo nghia nao do tao ra su canh tranh vol nhieu san pham hit ciia mat hang khac, do do khong co x u hudng ban chay hon. Mot ca si ndi tieng cap vung cd the ban duoc nhieu dia hon so vdi ca si trong viing do, nhung khong cd nghia la ca si do chi p h o i toan bo nganh am nhac. Bai hoc n i t ra trong cau tnic sieu nhd la su n d i tieng dien ra d nhieu pham v i khac nhau va lam tudng d m d t viing khong co nghia l a m l a m vua ciia ca dat nude.

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CAl DUOI DAI

CAI DUOI D A I THOI GIAN Tai sao mot so mat hang lai ban chay hon mat hang khac? Cho den gid, chung ta m d i chi nghien cUu chii yeu ve chieu sau va mUc do hap dan ciia mpt so mat hang cu the - chiing la mat hang chii luc hay mat hang ngach,

chat lupng cao hay thap. Tuy nhien, co mpt

nhan to khac tac dpng den sp p h d bien la thdi dai. Bdi v i nhirng mat hang co n h u cau ldn thudng ban chay hon n h u cau nhd, mat hang m d i ban chay hon mat hang cii. N h i n vao dudng cong co ban ve cau, chiing ta se khong ly giai dupe van de tren. Sp p h d bien thpc ra co nhieu khia canh: v i du, nhirng nhan to anh hudng den v i t r i ciia m p t album khong chi la chat lupng nhac, ma ca loai nhac, ngay phat hanh, su ndi tieng va/hay quoc tich ciia ban nhac, tac dpng ciia cac nghe si ciing loai... Tuy nhien, chiing ta chi biet mpt dieu rang do la album ban chay nhat ma khong biet t d i nhUng nhan td gan bd v d i nhau n h u tren. Do do, m p t san p h a m hit horn nay chinh la san pham

ngach ciia ngay mai. Hau het tat ca san pham

deu cd doanh t h u giam ciing v d i thdi gian. Bp phim Twister

la p h i m ban chay thU hai nam 1996, nhung

ban DVD ciia nd ban qua A m a z o n chi bang mdt niia bp p h i m tai lieu ciia kenh truyen h i n h History Channel ve Cach mang Phap. 244

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai Einstein mo ta t h d i gian chinh la true t h i i t u cua khong gian; ban hay nghi do la khia canh t h t i t u ciia Cdi dudi ddi Ca san pham hit va sdn pham ngach deu co doanh thu giam xuong ciing vol thoi gian; san pham hit co the co doanh thu cao hon, nhung cuoi ciing cung giam xudng tai Phan duoi. Nghien cUu de chUng m i n h ket luan tren se con tiep tuc nhung ve mat khai niem, buc tranh tren se co h i n h dang n h u sau: Cai duoi thdi gian

Dieu dac biet t h u v i ve t h d i gian va Cdi dudi ddi la Google cd ve n h u dang thay dd'i quy luat tren. D o i v d i phudng ti?n thong t i n tren mang hay m o i phUdng tien 245

CAI BUOI DAI truyen thong khac, tin tuc mdi tao ra sUc manh. Tin t u t ngay horn qua giong n h u ca u o n va k h i n o i dung b i dUa ra k h d i trang mang t h i su p h d bien cua no gan n h u bien mat. Tuy nhien, k h i cac trang mang ngay cang duoc Google tai lai, quy luat tren khong con dung. Google khong qua quan t a m den thoi gian ma dat Uu tien ve su lien quan cua cac lenh t i m kiem hon la do cap nhat. Do do, k h i t i m kiem, ban se t i m duoc trang co hen quan nhat chU khong phai trang cap nhat nhat. Bdi v i nhiing trang web cu cd nhieu thdi gian de nhan duoc hen he nen ddi k h i chung cd loi the hon cac trang m d i . Ket qua la t i n h p h d bien cua cac blog va tin tUc tren mang gid day giam cham hon trudc kia nhd cac cong cu t i m kiem. Google cd the coi la mpt cd may thdi gian va chung ta dang tUng budc cam nhan dupe tac dpng cua nd trong qua t r i n h phat hanh, quang cao va t h u h u t su chu y ciia con ngudi.

BI KICH BI B6 ROI CUA K I N H TE HOC D U T H U A Ndi mpt each rpng ra, Cdi dudi ddi la su du thUa. DU thUa gia de hang, d u thUa phan phoi, d u thUa sp lua chpn. Mpt trong nhung d i n h nghia ve k i n h te hpc do trang Wikipedia dua ra la: Kinh te hoc: (dt) La nganh khoa hpc xa hdi ve sp lUa chpn trong khan hiem.

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Kinh te hpc cai duoi dai Co nhiing dinh nghia khac ("la su" phan p h o i cac nguon luc hiiu han de thoa man ham muon khong han che",...), nhung co m p t diem chung: do la su nhan manh yeu to khan hiem, dac biet lam the nao de phan phoi cac nguon luc co han. Trong ky nguyen d u thUa hau nhu tat ca m p i thU, tU nhan d i n h ciia Moore (cho rang gia/tinh nang a i a may t i n h tang len gap doi sau 18 thang) den phuong ti$n l u u kho va truyen tai. Day chinh la van de. That kho de cudng dieu ve tac dpng a i a quan niem tren doi vol kinh te hpc k h i ban khong the sd hUu mien phi mpi thU - quy tac bao t n i m ve su trao doi va each thUc san xuat. V i dp, A d a m Smith da sang lap ra lanh te hpc hien dai bang each tinh den viec trao ddi ve thdi gian, hay su tien nghi, va tien. Ong ly giai ve viec m d t ngudi song gan thanh phd va tra nhieu tien thue nha hon, hoac song xa thanh phd va tra i t h o n la "tra tien chenh lech de ddi lay su tien nghi". Ke tU do, k i n h te hoc chi nham vao viec chia chiec banh h i i u han. That vay, k i n h te hpc tan cd dien khong tap t r u n g phan tich dau vao d u thUa, khong p h i i nhan rang dxi dupe cung cap mien p h i va khong dua dxi vao cong thUc tinh toan. Nd de nganh khoa hpc khac n h u hda hpc giai quyet van de. Tuy nhien, chiing ta dang budc vao k y nguyen a i a khong gian gia de hang vd tan. Hai thupc tinh chii yeu ve sp khan hiem trong k i n h te hpc truyen thong - la chi phi san xuat va phan p h o i san p h a m tiep theo -

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CAI DUOI DAI clang giam dan ve 0 trong cac t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi ky thuat so, k h i cac tep d i i lieu co the sao chep va truyen tai v d i chi p h i gan n h u bang khong. Chac chan la can phai giai quyet van de do ve mat k i n h te hoc. Rd rang su d u thiia l u o n xay ra quanh ta, dac biet trong cong nghe. Gia thuyet ciia Moore la v i du dien hinh. Dieu ma Carver Mead, ngudi d i dau trong nganh ban dan va la giao sU dai hoc Caltex dUa ra nam 1970 khi ong noi v o l sinh vien ve "den ban dan bd di" la khi cac bong den ban dan da t r d nen d u thiia, co nghia la cd gia bang khong. Su thay dd'i t u duy u i viec lam ra toan nhiing loai may tinh khan hiem sang "hoang phi" cong cu, ndi van ve la bang each chi ve ciia so' va bieu tupng tren man hinh, da dan den cupc each mang ve may tinh ca nhan. Chung ta khong con gi de ndi ve sp hoang p h i ldn - mdt chiec sieu may tinh dude sii dung cho vui! - ciia chiec Xbox 360. Nhiing quy luat tren ciing diing trong nhiing linh vuc tuong tu* n h u l u u kho, truyen tai va bat cii hang hda nao cd the so hda. Ngoai van de cong nghe, cupc each mang xanh da mang lai sp d u thiia trong nong nghiep (do do, de nang gia, chiing ta phai tra tien cho ndng dan de hp khong trong them cay). Nguon lpc thiic day dang sau sp" nd'i len ciia Trung Quoc va A n Dp chinh la sp d u thiia ve lao dpng, neu khong t h i hay de cho hp lang p h i con ngPdi ciia hp di? Tham chi cd the coi y tudng la d u thiia, bdi v i chiing cd the lan truyen khong gidi han do dac t i n h "khong 248

Kinh te hoc cai duoi dai loai trU" ciia chung. Nhu Thomas Jefferson, cha de cua he thong bang sang che cua My, da chi ra: "NhUng ai nh|n dUOc mot y tudng t i i t o i la n h | n duoc 161 chi dan cho chinh anh ta ma khong lay mat ciia toi; nhiing ai soi nen cho toi se nhan dupe anh sang ma khong l a m toi toi". Hon mpt t h | p nien trudc, George Gilder, tong do cua n i tudng dU thUa, dua ra m p t suy nghi co ich ve l i n h vpc nay: Trong hau het hch sU loai ngudi, hau het moi ngUol deu tin rang kinh te hpc la tro choi ke thang-ngudi thua - rang sp khan hiem cuoi ciing se chien thang sp dU thua. Muc su Malthus la ngudi ung ho quan diem rang dan so tang len ve hinh hpc trong khi san lupng nong nghiep tang len ve so hoc. Theo quan diem ciia ong, su khan hiem ve luong thuc cuoi ciing se lam giam tang trudng. Karl Marx nhin nhan kinh te hoc theo quan diem dau tranh giai cap ve "phuong tien san x u i t " khan hiem. Sp tap trung vao tinh khan hiem ciia cac nha lcinh te hpc xuat phat n i thpc te la su khan hiem la co the do dupe va se giam xuong bang khong. Ho gidi han mpt mo hinh kinh te de t i m ra ket qua hoan toan co the do dupe, mpt diem tdi han trong vong san xuat cong nghiep. Sp d u thUa khong the do dupe va khong co gidi han. Khi chiing trd nen phd bien, gidng nhu khong khi va nude, chiing trd nen vd hinh - "moi trudng ben ngoai". Tuy nhien, sp d u thUa la ngudn hie thiic day kinh te tang trudng va thay ddi.

249

CAI BUOI DAl Vay lam the nao de can bang dieu nay vol kinh te hoc tan cd dien? Gilder dua ra khuyen nghi sU dung do "bo d i " . Trong tat ca cac cuoc each mang cong nghiep, nhan to mau chot cua san xuat la giam dang ke chi phi. So vol chi phi trudc day trong san xuat, nhan to mdi gan nhu bang khong. Ngudn luc vat ly trong each mang cong nghiep gan nhu bang khong khi so sanh vol ngudn luc siic vat va co bap con ngudi. Dot nhien, ban cd the lam nhung viec trudc day khong the. Ban co the van hanh nha may trong 24 gid/ngay lam ra san pham theo each ma trudc day khong the hieu ndi. Dieu do co nghia la ngudn luc vat ly gan nhu mien phi. Toan bo nen kinh te can phai co cau lai de khai thac nguon luc nay. Ban phai "bd di" nang lupng may hoi nude va nhung may mdc tudng t u de chien thing, trong chien tranh cung nhu trong hoa binh. Dieu do goi ra y tudng ve viec dat nhan dinh tren t r o n g m d t b d i canh k i n h te nhat dinh. Neu nhiing ngudn luc d u thUa chi la mpt nhan to trong he thong b i tac dpng b d l sp khan hiem, chung se khong tao ra thach thUc d d i v d i k i n h te hpc chinh thong. Chung se cd tac dpng nhat dinh va l a m giam chi p h i giao dich Ngudn luc tao ra hieu qua san xuat giup lam giam gia va tang san lupng, dong thdi cd tac dpng nhat dinh ddi vdi cac ly thuyet k i n h te. Thuc te la su d u thUa ciia Cdi dudi ddi, v d i tat ca sUc manh ciia no, dang b i tac dpng b d i cac nhan to

250

Kinh t i hoc cai duoi dai kiem che nhu" vay. Mac d i i su" lua chon cac phirong tien gan nhu la vo han nhirng sy chu y va thdi gian cua con ngudi van la hiiu han. T h u nhap de tieu diing ciia chiing ta cung co han. Noi chung, day van la tro choi hon hop hen quan den chiec banh. DUa cho anh ta/co ta mpt trieu chuong trinh tivi nhung co ta/anh ta ciing khong xem nhieu chuong t r i n h hon trudc day, chi co dieu se xem chuong t r i n h khac, phii hpp hon vdi cd ta/anh ta ma thdi. Cuoi ciing, can chii y rang k i n h te hpc, v d i tat ca su hap dan ciia nd, khong giai quyet dupe m p i van de. Nhieu hien tupng chi cd the danh cho cac nganh khoa hpc khac, tU tam ly den vat ly, hoac khong cd m p t ly thuyet hpc thuat nao dien ta. Su d u thUa, cung giong nhu tang trudng, la nguon luc dang thay dd'i the gidi ciia chiing ta theo nhirng each ma chung ta dang trai nghiem hang ngay, bat chap viec chung ta cd giai thich hay khong giai thich dupe ve nd.

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CAI D A U NGAN THE' GIOI MOI CUA CAC GIA DE* HANG LlÂŁU TOT HON HAY TOI Tfi HON?

D u m u o n hay khong t h i t h i trudng ciia rmung san p h a m hit van hien hviu; cung n h u su" t o n tai ciia cac ciia hang ban le v d i khong gian chat choi, he thong truyen thong han che va chi p h i cho nhu cau toi thieu nhat. Vol su phat trien ciia thuong mai dien n i , doanh t h u ban hang tren mang d My van thap hon mUc ban le 10% va chi v u o t qua h i n h thUc b a n hang theo catalog. T h | m chi nhiing ngudi co suy cho thuong mai dien n i cung khong k y vong se chiem hon mot phan t u mUc tieu dung ciia nhirng thap nien vUa qua. Ly do la cac ciia hang truyen thong dem lai sU tien dung, dap Ung nhu cau ngay lap nic. Hon nUa, chinh chung ta ciing mang tam ly bay dan va thich lam nhu moi ngudi. D i theo so dong de tao tam ly thoai mai hdn va viec chia se k i n h nghiem cung lam m o i ngudi xich lai gan nhau hdn. 252

CSi d^u ngln D i l u do giai thich h i n h dang khong doi xiing ciia dudng cong Cdi dudi ddi. T h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi co chieu hudng phang hon t h i trudng truyen thong, song van thu duoc l o i nhuan. D u khac nhau d m p t so khia canh, nhung chung ta lai cd nhieu diem tuong dong tren nhieu mat khac. Do khong chi la thuc te hien nhien ma con can thiet de giup dua ra cac khuyen nghi va bp lpc thong t i n khac thuc day phan con lai ciia t h i trudng tren mang hoat dpng. Trong chuong nay, chung ta se ciing t r d lai v o l phia ben trai ciia do t h i ham sd, phia bang A. Chung ta se phan tich ca u u diem ciia ban hang truyen thong va chi phi, cung n h u cong nghe truyen thong va cd may tao nhUng san pham hit ciia Hollywood. Hay bat dau ni tinh u u viet trudc. Tuy t h i trudng cac san p h a m dang t h i n h hanh co the khong chi p h o i xa h d i va thuong mai nhieu n h u thap nien trudc, nhung van con anh hudng n d i bat. Trong do phai ke den vai t r d ciia chung n h u la ngudn ciia van hoa dai chiing, tao co sd cho cac thi

trudng

ngach phat trien. Nhung Nhd tap hap Cdi dudi ddi thanh cong can phai c h i l m l i n h dupe ca t h i trudng san p h a m dang thinh hanh va thi trudng

ngach. Hp can m d rpng dap

ling nhieu nhu cau da dang t i i chung nhat den dac t h u nhat, tao k i t n d i cho dudng thoai thoai ciia m d h i n h Cdi dudi ddi. Ngudi tieu diing thudng m u o n mua sam m p i thU chi

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CAI DUOI DAI trong mot cua hang. Ho m u o n co the mua dupe tat ca san pham ho dang t i m kiem trong mot ciia hang nhat dinh. Ciia hang nao dem lai cho nguoi tieu diing sU t u t i n se la ciia hang thanh cong. Niem t i n vao sU hia chon cuoi ciing va vao nhan thiic rang san pham tot nhat se duoc loc ra n i moi lua chon (hoac i t nhat la lua chpn trong l m h vuc do) ly giai tai sao Cdi dudi ddi hap dan den vay. Neu chi co san pham thuoc phan Dau, ban se nhanh chong n h | n ra khach hang m u o n nhieu hon the song ban khong the dap Ung. Neu chi co san pham d phan dudi, ban co the thay ngay ngudi tieu dung se khong biet nen bat dau n i dau. Ho khong the dan sau hon vao t h i trudng v i m o i san pham ban chao hang deu la lam v o l ho. Vai tro cung cap san pham d ca phan Dau va phan dudi n a m d cho ban co the khdi dau n i mpt the gidi ma khach hang da biet - the gidi ciia cac san p h a m quen thuoc - de khai thac va xac dinh nhu cau. Cau chuyen ciia trang mang MP3.com - mot trong nhiing dich v u nghe nhac tren mang dau tien - da chiing m i n h cho vai trd quan trong do. Nam 1997, nha k i n h doanh Michael Robertson da khdi dau sU nghiep k i n h doanh theo mo h i n h gan giong m d h i n h Cdi duoi ddi lanh dien. MP3.com cho phep bat ky ai cung co the dua cac dU lieu nhac len trang web. Y tudng ma ong ap l i la dich v u nay se vuot qua each t h u nhac truyen thong, cho phep ca si ket n o i true tiep v d i thinh gia. MP3.com se t h u l o i nhuan tU chi p h i cac ban nhac tra cho viec dUa am nhac len trang web. Thdi k y thong t r i 254

Cai d^u ng^n ciia cac cong ty phat hanh dia nhac se sup do, tao dieu kien de tram hoa dua nd. Dii rang MP3.com phat trien nhanh chong va sdm thu hut dUdc hang tram ngan ban nhac, nhung cac ban nhac kem nd'i tieng da khong thu hut them dupe luong khan gia m d i va nhiing ban nhac phd' thong lai khong dupe ban. Them vao do, MP3.com lai b i mang tieng v i chinh nhUng gi cong ty nay da lam: mot tap hop ho Ion cac ban nhac te hai khong dang dupe quang ba. Van de a i a MP3.com chinh la viec nd la Cdi dudi ddi duy nhat. Trong qua t r i n h t o n tai, cong ty khong hh ky thoa thuan giay phep v d i cac cong ty am nhac l d n nao ve viec cung cap dong nhac chii l u u hay nhac thuong mai dang t h i n h hanh. Do do, nd khong tao dupe diem khdi dau tuong d6ng cho ngudi tieu diing, khong co so luong san pham ban dau de tao nen tang cho viec tiep nic khai thac t h i trudng. (De t i m ra m p t mo hinh lcinh doanh hop ly, MP3.com sau do da cung cap dich vp cho phep ngudi sti dung dua nhirng dia nhac thuong mai ciia hp len mang, dan den hang loat vu kien nmg trong nganh t h u thanh va cuoi cung day cong ty den cho dong ciia). That bai ciia m d h i n h MP3.com va thanh cong ciia mo hinh iTunes - von i t hudng vao cac nha soan nhac doc l | p - nam d cho ngay tU dau, iTunes da dat dupe thoa thuan v d i cac cong ty dia nhac l d n ve cung cap mpt loat dong nhac chii l u u . Sau do, iTunes bd' sung ngay cang nhieu n p i dung am nhac chuyen biet v i "cac nha phat hanh dia nhac cd ban quyen" da chuyen cho 255

CAI DUOI DAl iTunes cac dia ciing v o l hang t r a m ngan nhac si doc lap. Do do, ngudi sii dung iTunes co the ngup lan trong t h i trudng da dupe cac hanh v i thuong mai phan dinh the loai nhac m p t each r d rang, n i do tao diem tua de m d rdng k h a m pha loai nhac chuyen biet. (Can l u u y them la thanh cong ciia MySpace - mo h i n h nhac dpc lap mien p h i rat giong MP3.com - cung dang de nghien cuu. Dudng n h u su ket hop rat hieu qua giUa t i n h cpng dong v o l n d i dung ciia trang web la Idi giai dap d thdi diem nay. Spi day gan ket xa hpi giUa hang chuc trieu ngudi ham mp giup d i n hp lpc bdt nhiing san pham am nhac kho cd the t i m thay neu thieu sp hpp tac, trong k h i n d i dung khien hp co ly do de tiep tuc truy cap trang web. Thuc te nay cho phep trang web tranh dupe hien tupng sup do' da ning danh chim cac dich v u ket n o i xa h d i trudc kia - loai dich v u khong tao ra dupe su gan ket chac chan).

CAl DUOI THANH T H I Cac thanh pho ldn tao nen mpt the loai "thi trudng hit" khac. Neu ban ve so do phan n h o m dan cu toan cau, ban se co duoc do t h i ham so dang dudng cong. Trong k h i dan cu dong diic tap trung d so i t cac thanh pho n i Thupng Hai t d i Paris, t h i nhieu n o i lai cd dan cu thua thdt. N h u Richard Florida da khang d i n h "the gidi co m i i i nhpn" trong cuon sach Su noi len cua tang ldp sang tao:

256

Cai d^u ngln Con ngUol tu tap theo nhom khong phai don gian chi vi tam ly bay dan hay vi hp thich nhung trung tam nao nhiet day du tien nghi, dii rang ca hai ly do nay deu diing. Ho va nhom aia ho tu tap vi lpi the ma sp dong due dem lai - nang suit, hieu qua ciia quy mo san xuat va sp chia se kien thuc. Khi cac nha sang tao, kinh doanh va trp giup tai chinh lien ket chat che voi nhau ca trong va ngoai cong sd, sang kien se de dupe de xuat, phat trien va dua vao ung dung nhanh chong hon. Nhung m u i nhpn dan cu nay - hay cac thanh pho ldn tren the gidi - ton tai v i l p i the k i n h te va van hda do dan cu tap trung dong due da b u trU cho chi p h i song d thanh t h i . Nhung that la nghich ly, m p t trong nhUng l p i the do lai la n h u cau da dang doi v d i cac san pham ngach. Mpi thU deu san cd d cac thanh pho n h u New York, Luan Don, Paris va Tokyo. Muon do an quoc te U? Tat ca deu cd d day - tU m d n lau a i a Eritrea, Bengal t d i Mong Co. Nhirng t h u v u i choi giai t r i d i i loai, dich v u dap Ung m p i n h u cau va neu ban biet r d tung doan pho nao hay ngach tudng nao de k h a m pha t h i t h a m chi cd hang ta san p h a m canh tranh v d i Amazon. Tai sao nhi? V i cu dan d thanh pho do dong tdi mUc nhUng n h u cau thudng phan tan nhat lai t r d nen tap trung. Xet theo nghia do, m p t thanh pho cd the dupe coi la Cdi dudi ddi ciia khong gian do t h i , giong n h u Internet la Cdi dudi ddi a i a khong gian y tudng hay khong gian van hda.

257

CAI DUOI DAI Nhu" nha van Steven Johnson da tung vi von: Mot cua hang chi ban duy nhat san pham cue ao se khong the t i m thay thi trudng trong t h i tran chi cd 50 ngan dan, nhung d thanh pho New York, lai co ca mot khu vuc chuyen ve ban cue ao. Cac nen van hoa ngach cung phat trien trong nhung thanh pho ldn theo dung nguyen ly do: neu ban cd gu thudng thuc khac ngudi thi ban se cd nhieu co hoi t i m dup*c ngudi cung sd thich vdi ban d thanh pho 9 trieu dan. Nhieu nam trudc day, nha nghien cUu do thi Jane Jacobs da nhan xet rang thanh pho l d n tao m d i trudng thuan l o i cho su phat trien ciia t h i trudng nhd chuyen biet. Ba viet rang: Thi tran va ngoai 6... la que huong tu nhien ciia cac sieu t h i khong id chU khong phai ciia a i a hang tap hda, a i a cac rap chieu phim tieu chuan hay rap chieu bong cho khach ngoi trong oto chU khong phai rap hat. Don gian vi sd luong ngudi vdi nhu cau khac nhau qua it, d i i rang cd the cd (rat it) ngudi san sang chi tien neu cd nhUng dich vu do. Trong khi do, thanh phd lai la que huong t u nhien aia sieu thi nhd, a i a rap chieu phim tieu chuan ket hop nha hang cao cap; banh nUdng kieu Vien, ciia hang tap pham do nude ngoai, phim nghe thuat..., tat ca deu ciing ton tai, tU binh thudng cho den ky di, tU do so cho den nhd be. O" bat cU noi sam uat va dong due nao tai cac thanh phd ldn deu cd the thay sd luong san pham nho nhieu hon san pham ldn.

258

Cai dau ngan

BAO VE CHIEC G I A DE H A N G H O A Trudc khi chon vui cac gia de hang hoa truyen thong vao d i vang, hay co Idi khen ngoi trudc da. Hien nay, gia bay hang ban le la cau n o i giUa khach hang v d i chuoi cung phat trien ngay cang manh, nham tan dung triet de thdi gian va khong gian. V d i chieu cao 2,13m, rpng 1,2m va sau 0,6m, gia de hang hda sieu t h i cd sue chtfa n h u m p t xe tai nhd. Duoc thiet ke theo tieu chuan cong nghiep, xep day hang tram mat hang, chiec gia de hang hda t r d thanh bieu tuong thdi thuong cua su no d i i . Ngay nay, sieu thi trung binh chUa dupe hon 30 nghin mat hang, tat ca dupe bo t r i va bay bien hop ly tren cac gia de hang hoa sao cho dat mUc doanh so ban toi da vdi chi p h i toi thieu. Sieu t h i cd chUc nang ky dieu - vUa la kho chUa do hUu hieu vUa la may ban hang da dupe cai tien. Gia de hang hda phan anh sUc m a n h tuyet d o i ciia khoa hpc ban le. Hang hda t r o n g cac sieu t h i ngay nay dupe dong gdi va sap xep theo quy tac t r U do va la dinh ciia dudng cau co gian. Viec phan p h o i hang hoa t o i Uu dupe cac t r u sd ban le hang loat phan tich tUng ngay va dieu c h i n h t r e n thuc te dpa vao so lieu xuat kho. Md h i n h sap do tren gia dupe thiet ke de dap Ung mpi nhu cau ciia chung ta: thoa man nhu cau hien tai, kich cau m d i va dat doanh so ban cao nhat chi v d i 259

CAl BUOI DAI khong gian han hep nhat. Moi goc cua gia de hang hoa sieu t h i deu dupe cac chuyen gia ban le phan tich ky hrdng, phan n h o m va giam sat thong qua he thong camera chim va nhan d i n h dang co tan so dai phat thanh. Quay de do ban le la k h u d n mat a i a mpt doanh nghiep, chiem gan 60% nen k i n h te My va l i n h vpc nghien cuu ve quay hang ban le ciing da khang dinh dupe vai tro quan trpng a i a m i n h . Chiing ta biet gia t r i thuc te a i a chiec gia de hang hoa giam theo chieu dpc n i tren xuong dudi. Chiing ta cung biet dich xac gia t r i dong dola doi v d i m o i loai san pham va loai ban le de co dupe v i t r i de do thuan lpi ngay dudi t a m mat (chang han d sieu t h i , v i t r i ky dieu d chinh giUa cd sUc ban gap n a m lan so vol v i t r i dudi cung). Ket qua la, cac ciia hang q u y l t dinh chinh xac mUc "phi chenh lech" ma nha san xuat phai tra neu m u o n hang hda ciia hp dupe xep d vi t r i ban hang thuan lpi, giup tang doanh so ban cho nha san xuat va mUc chenh lech cho ngudi ban. Trong k h i do, nghien ciiu chieu ngang ciia gia de hang hda cho phep phan tich mUc toi Uu hoa loai hang hda. Gid day, chung ta biet dich xac rang can xep hang hda v d i bien dp nao de t h u h u t anh mat ludt qua a i a khach hang ma khong de lang p h i mat bang gia de hang hda von da chat hep. Nhd cd ma vach va cac diem ban hang vdi he thong phan m e m l u u kho, chiing ta ciing l u o n biet each l a m day gia de hang hda v d i n h u n g mat hang p h i i hop. T o m lai, nhd cd nhung dau dc chuyen ve nghien cUu 260

Cai dau ngan t h j truong hang thap nien qua, chiing ta da biet each tan dung triet de m o i khoang khong gian ban le. Xet rmung tien bo da dat duoc, ciing v d i su d u thUa, lua chpn da dang va tac dong ciia chuoi cung toan cau den giam gia ban, kho ma phan bac dUOc tam quan trong ciia gia de hang hoa. Do chinh la hien than su phat trien ciia chii nghia t u ban.

THUE KHOANG KHONG MOT TAC Tuy nhien, xet tren nhieu phuong dien, gia de hang hoa lai rat lang p h i . Hay bat dau v o l thuc te nay. Phi thue hang thang doi v o l chiec gia hai-den-bon-foot

qua la ky quae. That vay, ban co the chat 6 foot vudng

hang tren 1 f o o t vuong gia de hang, nhung quy tac ban le "ngon tay cai" chi ra rang doi vol moi foot vuong de do, ban can them khoang hai den ba f o o t vuong danh cho l o i d i , quay thanh toan va k h u vuc chung. Tuy vao loai ciia hang m a kho chUa do va k h u vuc hanh chinh co the t o n t h e m 25% khong gian san. Dau nam 2005, p h i thue quay ban le d cac sieu t h j l d n ciia My trung binh len tdi gan 40 ddla/foot, khien mUc thue gia de hang hda tren m o i f o o t vuong dao dong tU 26 dola den 33 ddla/thang. Ke do phai ke t d i nhiing chi p h i phat sinh trong ban le truyen thong: d o i n g u ban hang, giam gia vo h i n h 1

Tuong ductag 0,6-l,2m. 1 foot (ft) = 0,3048m. 1 foot vuong ttrofng ducttig 0,093m . 6 foot vuong = 0,557m . 2

261

CAI DUOI DAI doi v d i hang hda hru kho, nang lupng va cac vat dung khac, an cap va cac van de "that thoat khac", tien lai, bao hiem va chi p h i tiep t h i . T i n h tong the tat ca cac loai chi p h i tren cd the tuong duong v d i chi p h i l u u khong, day td'ng p h i thue gia de hang hda 12 inch vuong len i t nhat la 50 ddla/thang. Cong v d i 40% gia 1

ban le, td'ng mUc p h i thue ciia hang t r u n g b i n h 1 foot vuong tU 100 dola t d i 150 dola tien ban hang thang va don gian la de tra p h i thue khong gian. V i m d i ngan tren gia de hang hda rat quy, nen chi nhiing san pham cd trien vong nhat v d i mUc ban ky luc hoac mUc lai da duoc d u tinh, m d i duoc bay ban. Do la m d t phep t h i i tan nhan ma phan l d n cac san p h a m khong the vuot qua duoc. Theo Hiep hdi ngudi tieu dung, trong sd 15 ngan san p h a m m d i duoc gidi thieu den cac sieu t h i hang nam, chi cd rat i t san pham cd cho dUng tren cac gia de hang hoa, con khoang t i i 70% den 80% k h o n g t r u ndi. Hien nay, 22 dola la mUc gia trung b i n h hang nam de m d t chiec dia DVD cd mat d ciia hang thue bang dia. Chi nhirng p h i m hit nhat m d i cd the b u lai cho khoan tien chi p h i ban dau (do cung chinh la ly do tai sao ngudi ta gpi ciia hang cho thue bang dia la "Blockbuster", tUc bom tan). Neu dieu do chua d i i b i quan t h i hay xem mUc p h i ban hang tiem an con cao h o n p h i true tiep. Ban phai tra chi p h i co hpi cho nhiing san pham ma khach hang khong the t i m thay va mUc cau ngam khong dupe dap 1

1 inch vuong tuefng duong 6,45cm .12 inch vuong = 77,4cm 2

262

Cai dau ngan ung v i khong gian han c h i ciia gia de hang hoa. Thoi dai Google da m d mang tam mat cho chiing ta trudc lpi the beo bd ciia dich v u t i m kiem. K h i chung ta danh vao trang Google bat cU m d t tU gi m u o n t i m (du co danh sai chinh ta d i chang nUa) t h i k i t qua luon l u o n hien ra. Gid day, chung ta thudng nhan duoc nhiing ldl khuyen hUu ich tU nhirng ngudi d i trudc, gidi thieu cho chiing ta nhUng san p h a m ma ta khong the h i n h dung hay t p t i m dupe. Song khong the t i m thay nhiing chi dan tren d ciia hang dia phuong Safeway, n o i m a san p h a m duoc phan loai ciing nhac ("do hop"), con nhiing loai hang hoa khac chi cd nha quan ly biet va phuong tien t i m kiem duy nhat la hdi ngudi ban hang - ngudi lam cong an mUc luong t o i thieu. Do k h o n g p h a i la l o i ciia Safeway hay l o i ciia ngudi ban hang truyen thong. Don gian la nhiing ngudi ban hang do gan ket d m h menh vol the gidi ciing nhac ciia cac gia de hang hda va l o i di, noi ma san p h a m budc phai tuan t h i i theo nguyen tac khong khoan nhupng ciia nguyen t i i vat chat, chU khong phai bit . 1

Mpt trong nhUng quy tac khong may ciia cac do vat la chiing khong the trudng t o n qua t h d i gian va khong gian. Rd rang, m p t vat chi cd the hien hUu d m d t n o i vao mpt t h d i diem nhat dinh. Chang han m p t hop ca ngU khong the t o n tai dong t h d i dudi nhieu mac phan 1

Don vi cd ban ciia thong tin theo he thong so nhi phan, phd bien trong ngon ngu tin hpc 263

CAI DUOI DAI loai, du rang lpi ich va each tim kiem cua khach hang co the dua ra nhieu goi y n h u "ca", "thuc p h a m dong hop", "nguyen heu lam banh sandwich", "it beo", "giam gia", "hang ban chay nhat", "dong gop cho truong hpc", "thap hon 2 dola"... Ngudi ta khong the bo t r i lai ciia hang de dap Ung n h u cau cu the ciia n i n g khach hang. Cung khong the cd phep mau sap xep lai cac chai r u p u cho p h u hpp vdi ket qua t i m kiem. NhUng chai r u p u do khong the dpt ngpt xuat hien tren gia de hang hda ngay ben canh de toi Uu hda kha nang nhiing ngudi da mua chai rupu Gouda lau nam va dliu den n h u ban t u nhien lai thich loai Pinot. Nguyen t i i cUng dau d cho do. Ciia hang chi co the biet m d n hang ban dat vao gio khi ban tdi quay thanh toan, va thdi diem do qua mupn de cd the cd bat k y hanh dpng gi, ngoai t n i viec dua cho ban m p t phieu giam gia cho nhiing lan mua hang sau. d dau do, cac nha nghien cUu ban le co le dang m o t d i n h i i n g xe mua hang thong m i n h sii dung nhan d i n h dang cd tan so song phat thanh de giam sat hang hda va dUa ra khuyen nghi trong qua t r i n h ban mua hang. Tuy vay, ngay ca cac nha khoa hpc nay ciing van khong the bien van de thanh hien thuc hay khien khach hang cd dupe nhung I d i khuyen ay. Trong mpt the gidi vat chat, khach hang hang chuyen dpng con hang hda t h i khong.

264

Cai dau ngin

HIEU UNG WAL-MART Khi con la mot anh chang phat pho trac mdi doi muni, giong n h u nhieu ban dong trang lira, t o i cung lam viec tai mot ciia hang bang dia. Ciia hang do tuong doi lcfn nam d k h u b u o n ban d Washington D.C, nay da dong ciia. Vi chii yeu cung cap bang dia cho nhirng ngudi l a m viec quanh do n h u luat su, nhan vien hanh chinh, quan ly phap ly nen ciia hang cung kha co tieng tam. Tuy v | y , t d i van con n h d n h u i n l o i d i giUa cac day bang dia nhap (chii yeu la dong nhac m d i ciia A n h v i thdi ay la giUa thap nien 80) chay dai den tan cho ghe tdi ngoi, nhin ra ciia de giai dap cac thac mac ciia khach hang. Ca bUc tudng phia sau chat day dia d o n 12inch v d i nhUng guong mat n d i tieng n h u Depeche 1

Mode va Billy Idol; con nhac cd dien ddi hdi ngudi nghe tinh te hdn nen dupe bd t r i trong phong rieng v d i he thong am thanh chat lUdng cao. Tat ca nhUng k y Uc do n h u d p i ve k h i t d i dang tho than giUa nhUng gian bang dia t r o n g Wal-Mart d Oakland, California. (Va thuc sU chang biet tU "tho thdn" cd chinh xac de m d ta m p t chang 15 budc d i t d i di l u i d I d i d i hay khong nUa?). Wal-Mart chiem t d i khoang 1/5 tong doanh sd ciia nganh am nhac ciia My, 1

Tut loai dia co dudng kinh hdn 30cm. 265

CAl BUOI DAl hien la nha cung cap dich v u am nhac ban le l d n nhat toan quoc. T r u n g b i n h m o i tuan khoang 138 trieu nguoi My den Wal-Mart, bien noi day thanh nguon luc van hoa thong nhat duy nhat of dat nude nay. Vol l o i the vuot t r o i ve quy mo, nhirng nha ban le ldn, ke ca cac ciia hang n h u Best Buy da l a m thay ddi bd mat nen cong nghiep am nhac qua h o n mot thap nien. Ngay nay, sd luong cac ciia hang am nhac k i n h doanh doc lap n h u ciia hang t d i da tung l a m viec da giam sut nghiem trpng; phong nghe nhac cd dien gid dang mat dan khach hang. Khdi can phai ndi cung thay la con rat i t dia nhap khau. Thay vi nhiing bp suu tap tong hpp cd mat d cac ciia hang chuyen biet t h i trong cac ciia hang l d n khong co nhieu dia chpn lpc dang t h i n h hanh. Oai oam thay, nhung ciia hang l d n lai ban qua i t dia nhac d cac the loai khac nhau, nhung do lai la nguyen ly ciia nen kinh te ciia nhiing ngudi khong i d . Tuy vay, gia ban van rat on va khach hang t h i van hao hUng. Thanh cong vol ngudn cung hieu qua ma chi vol gia ban buon, cac ciia hang ban le l d n ngay nay t r d thanh bieu tuong hien dai ciia ban le truyen thong. Chao m u n g cac ban den v o l Cai dau ngan. The nao dupe gpi la ngan? Mpt ciia hang Wal-Mart t r u n g b i n h cd khoang 4.500 ten dia (so v d i 800 nghin ten dia ma A m a z o n chao ban). Dang chu y hdn, k h i x e m k y quay am nhac d Wal-Mart ma t d i tan bp qua d Oakland, day la sd lupng dia ma t d i thay trong m o i loai:

266

Cai dau ngan "Rock/Pop/R&B" "Nhac Latin" 'Thanh ca" "Nhac dong que" "Nhac cd diin/Nhac dยง nghe"

1.800 1.500 360 225 225

Mot lan mia co the thay co hai day nhac chinh: m o t la "Rock/Pop/R&B" va hai la "Nhac Latin". Tat ca cac loai nhac khac deu b i xep gop vao n h i i n g day cao 12,19cm, dai 15,24cm. Nhac "Jazz", "Nhac cd dien", "Nhac quoc te", "Nhac de nghe" va "Nhac the he m o i " deu thuoc mot day. Theo David Gottlieb, ngudi tutig la nha quan l y am nhac, Wal-Mart chi co khoang 750 trong tong sd 30 nghin album m o i ra hang nam. TUc la chi chiem 2,5% ngudn am nhac m o i va tong sd 4.500 ten bai trong kho am nhac chiem chua bang m o t mia toan bo so dia am nhac. Toan bo cac the loai nhac, tU nhac nhay (Dance) cho den nhac 161 (Spoken-Word) hoac la thieu hoac la bi danh dong v o l n h i i n g loai nhac n h u "Rock/Pop/ R&B". Khong the t i m thay n h i i n g dia nhac n h u Tha huong noi phd Ion (Exile on Main Street) Rolling Stones hay Dung

lo lang

cua n h o m

(Nevermind)

ciia

Nirvana. Den day t h i Cai dau ngan da hien h i i u . T i n h trang khan hiem, d i n h tre kieu nut cd chai, su phan p h o i b i bop meo va su doc quyen cua khong gian bay ban, tat ca deu goi gon trong m o t ciia hang ldn. Mot lan nUa, ta lai thay m o t nghien l y a i a su d u thUa: Budc vao WalMart, ban b i choang ngqrp b d i su phong phu, nhieu lua 267

CAI DUOI DAI chon. Nhung quan sat ky hon thi cai ngheo nan ciia su doi dao m d i Id ro. Cung n h u nhirng gia dia d WalMart v d i chieu dai 1,6 cay so va sau 30,48cm. Thoat n h i n tudng n h u m p i thU deu san cd, nhUng trong mpt the gidi co chieu dai 1,6 cay so t h i vd bpc ciia sp phong p h u nay rd rang la khong d i i .

TRONG THU VIEN VCfl N H U N G QUYEN SACH XEP S A I CHO Mdt trong nhirng van de phien toai nhat ddi vdi hang hda vat the la chung budc ta phai phan loai theo each ciing nhac va bat bien ma Wal-Mart la m p t v i dp. Dieu do cd nghia la ao chan gid co the nam d loai "Ao khoac" hoac "Do the thao", nhung khong the trong k h u "Do mau xanh" hoac "Do nildng". Binh thudng t h i do khong la van de to tat, nhung v d i nhieu ngudi phan loai nhu vay that ngd ngan (md h i n h l a n h te hpc van nang ciia nganh ban le khong can quan tam den m d t so i t khach hang chi coi trong su phan loai). Nhung v d i vai tro la ngudi quan ly ciia hang, ban phai doan xem khach hang se t i m den quay hang nao de t i m ao chan gid. Nen sau k h i bay bien ciia hang theo each phan loai ma ban cho la diing t h i ban se chang the lam gi ngoai viec hy vpng each bo t r i ciia ban cung diing vol each nghi thong thudng ciia m p i ngudi. Nhung neu khach hang khong nghi theo each do t h i sao nhi? Chi con hy vpng la hp se h d i nhan vien ma thdi.

268

Cai dau ngan Tuy nhien, cung vol cuoc each mang trong cong nghe ban le tren mang la kha nang tai phan loai va bo t r i san pham giup khoi nguon gia t r i thuc ciia san pham do. Cac ciia hang tren mang co the liet ke kho hang theo bat ky each phan loai nao ho muon, d u so lupng hang hoa nhieu den mUc nao d i chang nUa. Dieu do khong chi thu hut su chu y cua cac khach hang tiem nang - nhirng nguoi khong the t i m dupe san pham theo each phan loai thong thudng - ma con giup kich cau d nhUng khach hang ma tho at dau khong co y dinh tim kiem san pham, song rot cupc lai quyet dinh mua hang chi v i each sap dat thong m i n h ciia cUa hang. Su hieu qua va thanh cong cua mo Wnh ban le tren mang da lam 16 ro cai gia ma each ban truyen thong phai tra cho su thieu linh hoat va su don gian hoa qua mUc ciia no. Gia cao va han che trong lua chpn la mpt van de; con viec thieu kha nang giup khach hang t i m ra san pham ma hp muon lai chinh la mpt van dk khac. Trong khoa hpc thong tin, giai quyet kho khan ve each thUc phan loai su vat dupe coi la van de ciia "Ban the hpc". Ban the hpc co nhieu nghia khac nhau, tuy vao nhUng m o n hpc khac nhau, nhung doi vol cac thii thu va chuyen gia may t i n h (va ca ngudi quan ly ciia hang, d u hp cd biet dieu do hay khong), n i nay am chi each thUc sap xep su vat. Khung phan loai thap phan Dewey la m d t each de bo t r i sach, Bach khoa toan 1

Britannica 1

thit

la m p t each phan loai thong t i n . Bang tuan

Do Melvln Dewey tao ra nam 1876. 269

CAI DUOI DAI hoan cac nguyen to hoa hoc la mot each sap xep cac nguyen to. Nhin chung, cho den nay, tat ca each phan loai tren deu thanh cong. Tuy nhien, k y nguyen Google khien chung ta dot ngdt nhan ra rang nhirng each thiic co d i n h do da han che hieu biet cua chung ta ve the gioi den nhudng nao. Hay bat dau vol Khung phan loai thap phan Dewey, theo do, the gidi t r i thiic diioc chia thanh m u d i cap bac: •

000 May tinh, thong t i n va cac thong t i n tham khao thong thudng

•

100 Triet hoc va tam ly hoc

•

200 T o n giao

•

300 Khoa hoc xa h d i

•

400 Ngon ngii hoc

•

500 Khoa hoc t i i nhien va toan hoc

•

600 Cong nghe

•

700 Nghe thuat va sang tao

•

800 Van hoc

•

900 U c h sir va dia ly

Den day co ve hop ly, diing khong? T a m d'n, hay ciing xem xet miic phan loai t h i i hai, con so t h i i hai nhe. Day la each sap xep cho Loai 200, T o n giao: •

200 T o n giao

•

210 Triet hoc va ly thuyet ve t o n giao

•

220 Kinh thanh

270

Cai dau ngan •

230 Cd doc giao

•

240 Left ran a i a dao CO doc va than hoc

•

250 Pham chile CO doc giao va cac nha tho" dia phuong

•

260 Than hoc xa h o i va giao h o i

•

270 Lich sii CO doc giao va cac m o n phai CO doc giao

•

280 Cac giao phai Co doc giao

•

290 Ton giao hoc so sanh va cac ton giao khac

Ban da thay van de r o i , dung khong? Dao Hoi, dao Do Thai, dao Hindu, dao Lao va tat ca cac t i n ngufemg khac tren the gidi, v d i so ludng giao dan chiem gan het dan so the gidi l a i b i danh dong vao thanh m o t nhdnh nhd t i n ngudng "khac" m a t h d i . Su phan loai nay chi phan anh nen van hda ciia nude My the k y 19, khi ma he thong nay duoc phat trien (va cd le v d i ban than Melvil Dewey), chU khong lot ta duoc the gidi ciia dUc t i n . Thanh that ma n d i , K h u n g phan loai thap p h a n Dewey khong phan anh dung t h i gidi t r i thUc, ma chi la the gidi ciia cac quyen

sach ma t h d i . N h u Clay

Shirky - nha nghien cUu hang dau ve tac dong ciia cong ngh? Internet trong l i n h vuc van hda, xa h d i da rung p h a n nan: Ngudi ta dang tim each toi Uu hda so luong sach bay tren gia. Bo cue ciia khung phan loai do khien no giong nhu each sap xep cac khai niem: bo t r i thanh cac muc khong chong cheo nhau vdi chi tiet cu the d nhung 271

CAl DUOI DAl cap dp thap hon - nghia la moi mpt khai niem chi dupe xep vao mpt pham tru ma khong dupe vao bat ky pham tru nao khac. Nhung doi khi, co cau do lai lpn xpn, va co cau - von la cau tnic cau thanh nen he thong - lai dupe thiet ke de giam thieu thdi gian t i m kiem tren gia sach. Hien nhien la chiing ta da co nhung budc tien dai tu" the ky 19. Cac t h u vien da xay dung danh muc the phan loai sach theo nhieu tieu chi: tac gia, tieu de, cac tU khoa, chu de thay the. Cuoi cung la danh muc dien tU va each t i m theo tU khoa khien viec t i m kiem t r d nen de dang hon. Tuy vay, sach van dupe xep tren gia theo Khung phan loai thap phan Dewey. Dieu nay co nghia la dti rang ban da xac d i n h dupe v i t r i l u u giU quyen sach ban m u o n (tuy ban khong dang k y vao he thong t h u vien thdi Victoria ket n o i toan the gidi kieu Melvil Dewey), ban cd the khong t i m dupe quyen do trong so sach bay tren ke. Tham chi k h i cd danh muc the, t h i sach van phai doi mat v d i nguyen ly ciia vat chat. Hay xem dieu gi se xay ra neu sach b i dat sai cho hoac xep vao sai de muc phan loai. Dieu do se chang khac gi viec sach b i boc hoi. Neu khong co ai do t i n h cd bat gap va xep sach vao dung ke, t h i tren thuc te, quyen sach ay se bi that lac (dii rang no van dang nam d dau do thoi). Bdi vay, khong cd gi ngac nhien k h i nhac den gia de hang, ngudi ta lai thudng n g h i t d i theo nghia tieu cue "Shelf life" de cap t d i thdi gian m a hang hda b i qua han - cd the la nghia den (chang han: nhUng qua chuoi 272

Cai (Mu ngSn bat dau chuyen sang m a u nau) hoac nghia bong (nhu nhung dia giay co chii de Halloween vao thang 3). Trong l i n h vuc p h i m anh va truyen hinh, "shelved" co nghia la hiiy hoac hoan. Gia (de hang) la n o i m o i thU den de tU gia cdi ddi. Mat khac, hay nghi tdi mpt the gidi dupe sap xep tam thdi theo mpt thdi diem cu the nao do. H i n h anh ciia the gidi do se giong n h u m p t dong do nam tren ban, chU khong phai rung hang do vat dupe sap xep quy cii tren ke. Tat nhien, each bai t r i dau tien dudng n h u rat lpn xdn, nhung don gian, do la m d t loai h i n h to' chUc mang tinh t u phat, theo ngU canh va neu can thiet co the de dang sap xep lai cho p h u hpp v o l ngU canh mot Nhin dudl lang k i n h ciia Google, h i n h anh do cung tuong doi giong trang web - m d t the gidi ciia su da dang vd tan va mpt trat t u hiem k h i dupe quyet d i n h trudc; the gidi ciia bo cue nang dpng vol hinh dang thay ddi tuy vao nhan quan ciia ngudi quan sat. Gan day, t d i m d i den t h a m T h u vien cong cpng d Seatde, dupe kien tnic su ndi tieng Rem Koolhaas thiet ke de t r d thanh h i n h m a u t h u vien the k y 2 1 . V i kien tnic su do da phai d d i mat v o l thach thUc phai xep nhung gia de hang hda cho p h u hpp v o l viec sii dung cong cu t i m kiem. Koolhaas da nhiin ra s u can bang tuong d d i giUa may t i n h va sach dang bien ddi va x u hudng do se tiep tuc, nen ong da khong dua nhieu gia dhih ve each thUc sap xep dau sach. Ong da b d t r i cac gia de sach tren tay v j n ciia cac dudng xoan t r o n dc de cd the n d i r p n g hoac t h u hep theo yeu cau. 273

CAI DUOI DAl Song ngay ca trong he thong l i n h hoat dang khen nhu v$y, ong cung can xep sach theo trat t u nao do. 1

Do phai mat khoang m o t hoac hai t h i k y de thay ddi van hoa t h u vien, nen trat t u dupe sii dung la trat t p rat quen thuoc v d i chiing ta - Khung phan loai thap phan Dewey. Tuy nhien, trong T h u vien cong cpng Seattle, nhUng con sd Dewey dupe danh dau tren nhung tam tham cao su t r u p t thanh ranh tren nen be tong d san nha. V i cac gia de hang hda se thay d d i p h u hpp vdi sp thay ddi cac Uu nen thong t i n tren the gidi, nen duong nhien tam dem cao su cung se bien d d i theo. Neu mpt ngay nao do, he thong Dewey het t h d i t h i co the nhiing tam dem cao su se chang bien thanh cai gi khac ngoai cho ly tudng de lau giay. Mpt t h u vien bao t h i i khong cd bat k y m p t gia d i n h nao ve khung canh tuong lai.

M U A S A M T A I N H U N G C U A H A N G H O N HOP NhUng gi dung vdi cac thu vien lai cang diing vdi cac ciia hang ban le. Trong t h u vien, i t nhat la cd he thong phan loai tieu chuan, theo do danh mpc the la cong cp t i m kiem, con cac t h i i t h u phai biet r d sach trong t h u vien ciia m i n h . Tuy vay, x i n chuc ban may man, nhanh chong t i m dupe cuon sach ma ban thich trong m p t sieu t h i la lam! He qua ciia viec phan loai nhat thdi va bd t r i tuy tien la khach hang buc bpi, san pham e am va bupc phai chuyen sang nhung mac hang 274

Cai dau ngan va san pham n d i tieng, d d n gian v i do la loai hang de tim. Hien Wong mong t p cung diยงn ra vol phan lcm cac ciia hang khac n i ban phan m e m t d i quan ao. Hay lay mot v i du, m d i day t d i vao Blockbuster gan cho toi d de t i m Akira, m d t loai p h i m hoat h i n h k i n h dien ciia Nhat. Nen t i m d k h u nao nhi? Khoa hoc vien tudng? Phim hoat hinh? Nude ngoai? Hay hanh dong? Cuoi ciing t h i hoa ra d quay nao cung chang can thiet vi hp khong cd p h i m do. Neu ban khong the t i m dupe thU ma ban muon, t h i cac ciia hang ban tnic tiep chang the phat huy duoc l o i the v d n cd ciia m i n h la l a m vUa long khach hang ngay lap tUc. Song ddi v o l Amazon, van de d o n gian chi la danh chU "akira" vao thanh t i m kiem (luu y rang ciing chang can phai viet hoa hay t h a m chi phai viet dung). Ten phim ngay lap nic hien ra cung v d i hai ban phong tac khac (ca p h i m mdi va p h i m cii). Neu toi m u o n t i m theo the loai n h u d tren, t h i each nao cung ra ket qua; trong danh sach nao ciing cd ten phim. Dich vp tron gdi danh cho phim Bong ma trong vd sd (Ghost in the Shell) cung dupe chao m d i day hap dan, cho thay m p t Uu the ciia tiep t h i va v i t r i sap dat. Tuong n i n h u vay, A m a z o n cung khuyen nghi t h e m hai bp p h i m khac ma hp nghi toi co the quan tam: Cong chiia Mononoke

hay Bong

ma trong vd so tap 2. Hien nhien la ca hai p h i m deu co san va re h d n so v d i d Blockbuster. K i n h nghiem d ca hai ciia hang d d i v d i t d i deu n h u nhau. Theo nghia do, so sanh nha ban le tren mang v o l ciia hang ban truyen thong ciing n h u so Google v o l t h u 275

CAI DUOI DAl vien vay. Do khong gian han hep cua gia de hang hoa ma cac ciia hang budc phai xay dung he thong phan loai va dUa vao phuong phap do. Toi ban khoan khong hieu theo Khung phan loai thap phan Dewey, quyen sach ma ban dang cam tren tay thuoc chu de nao. Cong nghe? Kinh te? Kinh doanh? Van hoa? Chang co de muc nao la thoa dang ca. Dang b u o n thay, chang co pham t n i nao bao ham "tat ca nhUng the loai tren". Ngupc lai, Google se chang xep quyen sach nay dudl bat ky cai m u nao. V i t r i n i nhien ciia quyen sach tren the gidi nay se xuat hien tuy thuoc vao thuc te dupe dong dem b d i nhUng dudng d i n (link) trong tuong lai. Nha xuat ban cd the coi do la "sach Icinh doanh", nhung neu the gidi qua quyet nd mang nghia "kinh te hpc phd' thong" nhieu h o n va ket n o i theo quan niem n h u vay thi cuon sach se thuoc pham t n i do, dong thdi se mang them nhiing dac trung khac nUa ma ngudi ta thay la p h u hpp. Trong the gidi ciia Google, ngU nghia va each sap xep hoan toan tuy thuoc vao the gidi quan ciia ngudi sii dung. Mpt thU lai co the mang rat nhieu nghia khac nhau doi vol nhiing ngudi khac nhau. Do do, thuat t i m kiem ciia Google don gian chi dua tren t r i tue ciia dam dong, bang each tinh toan nhUng ket qua p h u hpp nhat cho nhung n i khoa ma ngudi sii dung danh vao. Trong k h i do, A m a z o n se t p xep cuon sach nay vao nam hay sau chii de. Con khach hang se cd tieng ndi ciia rieng hp k h i "tagging" cuon sach, nic la dat ten chii de ma hp cho la p h u hpp cho de muc se l u u ket qua t i m kiem ("Internet", "blogger", "de dpc sau", "hieu qua 276

Cai dau ngan Pareto ", "mon do t h u vi"...). Nhung nguoi khac co the 1

thay chii de dat cho cuon sach, giup cuon sach t i m dupe cho diing ciia m i n h trong the gioi. Qua t r i n h dat ten chii de do tao ra cai gpi la "folkonomies" - nghia la each phan loai hoan toan dua tren sp" hia chpn ciia ngudi sii dung. Ly t h i i la d cho, A m a z o n danh gia rat cao each dat chii de nay va tham chi xep nhiing chii de do trudc ca danh sach phan loai hp da d m h san. Tuy vay, do m d i chi la k h d i dau ciia qua t r i n h thao gd dan chuoi sach vo tain. Phan m e m ciia A m a z o n se nghien ciiu tiing t i i trong cuon sach va quyet dinh m p t danh sach "thong ke cac cum t i i la", la cac tap hpp t i i khong xuat hien nhieu, neu cd, d cac cuon sach khac. Xet tren phuong dien do, nhUng cum tU nay khong chi cau thanh nen dau an dac t h u cho cuon sach ciia t d i , ma con chi ra nhUng y tudng hay, l i n h vuc nghien cUu rieng biet rat hUu ich. Phan mem ciing se het ke nhUng t i i viet hoa duy nhat giup xac d m h nen tang thuc te ciia cuon sach. Sau do, A m a z o n se sU dung tat ca cac cong cu phoi hop lpc thong t i n de t i m nhirng cuon sach ma khach hang xem va m u a ciing v d i cuon sach ciia toi. Dieu nay giup xac d m h cuon sach thong qua nhiing cuon sach thupc the loai tudng t u . 1

Vdi mot nhom cac ca nhan va nhieu each phan bd nguon luc khac nhau cho moi ca nhan trong nhom do, viec chuyen hi mpt phan bd nay sang mot phan bo khac ma lam it nhat mot ca nhan co dieu kien tot hon nhung khong lam cho bat cii mot ca nhan nao khac co dieu kien bi xau di dupe goi la mot sU cai thien Pareto hay mot sp tdi uu hoa Pareto. 277

CAl DUOI DAI

SU K H O K H A N V E D I A L Y Mot nhupc diem nUa cua cac gia de hang hoa la chiing p h u thuoc vao nhan to dia ly. Nhung do vat tren gia chi san co vdi ai cd mat n o i co gia ma thoi. Tat nhien, do lai ciing la l o i the b d i a i a hang dem lai sp thuan tien va hai long k h i giao hang ngay lap nic den tan tay cho ban. D t i ta cd dau t i i thdi gian tren mang thi rot cupc chiing ta ciing van chi song trong mpt the gidi vat chat ma thdi. T r d ngai chinh ma each ban le truyen thong phai vuot qua la can t i m k h a c h hang d dia phitong. D i i chiing ta cd ndi den p h i m anh, dia CD hay bat ky san pham nao khac, t h i cac a i a hang ban le truyen thong se chi co nhiing mat hang de trang trai cupc song, nhiing san p h a m n h a m t h u l p i (va dola) nhieu nhat t i l so dan dia phuong it di. 6" My, 20% dan cu phai d i h d n 8 dam de tdi ciia hang sach gan nhat, 8% mat t d i h o n 20 dam. So luong cac ciia hang bang dia nhac, rap hat, ciia hang cho thue video cung chang khac la may. T h a m chi khong phai ai ciing mua dupe hang. Hay nhd la trong khong gian ma nhan td dia ly chiem vai t r d chu dao, t h i so lupng khach hang qua dan trai cung chang khac gi khong cd khach hang. Nen n h u cau d dia phuong can d i i l d n va tap t r u n g de b u dap chi 278

Cai dau ngln phi phan phoi theo dia ly. Noi each khac, khong d i i cau d dia phuong cung dong nghia voi chang co ciia hang nao. Nguyen ly nay diing doi vol m o i loai hang hoa. Dieu do giai thich tai sao cac a i a hang ban do trupt tuyet lai vang bong of nhUng noi co k h i hau nong va ciia hang do lan lai thudng khong cd mat trong noi dia (du rang rat nhieu ngudi d i t r u o t tuyet hay lan lai xuat than tU nhUng noi n h u vay). Cd the ngudi dan d dia phuong do co nhu cau mua hang, nhirng m d t lan nUa van de lai dat ra vdi chii cac ciia hang la lieu cd dii cau d dia phuong hay khong. Cach t i n h toan gan giong n h u sau: Hang ban = Phan tram sd dan cd the" mua hang Tru di Phan tram sd dan khong nam trong ban kinh 10 dam so vdi ciia hang Trudi Phan tram ngifdi dan khong bao gid vao cda hang Trudi Phan tram sd ngudi khdng xem mat hang tren gid Van van va van van... Nhung khong nhat thiet phai la n h u vay. Theo each do, ban cd the nghi t d i md h i n h Cdi dudi ddi d khach hang, ciing giong n h u d san pham. Hay mudng tuong true hoanh ciia do t h i la so lupng t h i tran, con true tung chi so khach hang t i e m nang d m o i m p t t h i tran. Mot nha ban le truyen thong se phai tap trung vao phan dau ciia do t h i , n o i tap t r u n g nhieu khach hang nhat. 279

CAI DUOI DAI Tuy vay, nhu* chung ta da biet, phan ldn khach hang lai nam d phan dudi, phan bo rai rac khap cac t h i tran. Do chinh la b i an toi te cua nganh ban le truyen thong. Cac ciia hang danh bo mac mang k i n h doanh do, don gian v i kha nang tai chinh ciia ho khong cho phep. Thuc chat t h i do la mang k i n h doanh ciia nhUng nha ban le tren mang. Hp cd the vUOn t d i tat ca cac khach hang d ca nhung thanh pho dong due lan vang ve, nen hp cd the khai thac Cdi dudi ddi t r o n g phan p h o i cau. Do chinh xac la cong viec ma cuon catalog Sears va Roebuck da l a m m p t the k y trudc: khai thac sU phan bo cau da dang d nude My. Ngay nay, chung ta chi l a m dieu do nhanh hdn, v d i chi p h i re h o n va da dang hon.

KHONG GIAN CHAT CH0I SU ra ddi ciia dai phat thanh - va roi truyen hinh da dem lai hieu Ung b i n h quan chii nghia. Theo each t i n h ciia t h i trudng t h i hieu qua k i n h te ciia truyen thong la khong the p h i i nhan dupe: Truyen thong cho phep ban tiep can hang trieu ngudi v d i chi p h i re. Trong k h i chi phai tra chi p h i co d m h cho truyen dan va giay phep, t h i ban lai t h u dupe cac khoan khac nhau tU quang cao. Cang tiep can dupe cang nhieu ngudi, thi so tien ban t h u dupe cang ldn. Trong nguyen ly Cdi dudi ngan ciia t h i trudng cac san p h a m hit, m p i thU chi dpn gian n h u vay. 280

Cai dau ngan SU ra ddi cua truyen thong vao giiia the ky 20 da bat ngd dua lai kha nang mang cac chuong t r i n h bieu dien den tiing nha, cap nhat t i n tUc t o i tUng ngudi. So vol viec den nha hat hay rap chieu p h i m xem true tiep, thi dai phat thanh va truyen hinh la luc lupng dan chu hoa dang k i n h ngac, giup m d rpng luc lupng khan gia xuong t d i phan

dudi ciia nhu cau ve t i n tUc va cac

chuong trinh giai t r i nhieu hon bat ky nhan to nao khac trudc do hoac sau nay. Tuy vay, ciing can n h d rang cong nghe truyen thong cung co nhung han che. Song phat thanh chi cd the truyen tdi cac dai t h u phat song va so lupng cap dong true quyet d m h so kenh truyen hinh. Rd nhat la chi co the phat song 24 g i d m o i ngay. Neu la nha quan ly truyen h i n h hay truyen thanh, ban co the thay r d tac dpng thuc te ciia nhirng han che nay. Moi mpt ranh tren nut xoay d dai phat thanh, hay moi kenh tren he thong cap deu cd gia ciia nd. Ddi khi, do la chi p h i x i n giay phep phat thanh hay p h i keo day cap; doi luc, do lai la ky vpng ciia ngudi quang cao. Trong trudng hpp nao d i nUa thi chi co each duy nhat de co l p i nhuan (hoac it nhat la hda von) la t h u hut dupe lupng t h i n h gia d i i dong de tan dung triet de nguon l p i tU m o i chUPng t r i n h phat song. Giai phap truyen thong la tap trung vao nhUng n p i dung hit. Ben canh viec s i i dpng hieu qua nguon luc khan hiem bang each tap hpp va tap trung khan t h i n h gia, nhiing n p i dung hit con giup tranh t h i i dupe hieu

281

CAl DUOI DAl qua mang ludi trong tiep t h i , con duoc goi la truyen mieng (buzz). Mpt k h i quang cao khien san pham hit nhan dupe su men mp cua cong chiing, t h i thong t i n truyen mieng co the dua sp men mp do len mpt tam cao mdi, do chinh la each de dat dupe v i t r i cd anh hudng neu thuc sU san p h a m hit da d i sau vao tam k h a m ciia khan gia. Nhung l a m the nao de tao ra san pham hit? Cd hai lUa chpn co ban sau: (1) T i m kiem tai nang hiem cd va dac biet; (2) Sii dung cong thUc n h u cau t o i thieu nhat de san xuat san pham t o i u u hda. Ban cd the udc doan loai nao thong dung nhat. K i t qua la, chinh van hda giai t r i va phuong tien truyen thong dpa tren san pham hit la luc lupng thdng t r i niia cuoi the ky 20. Dieu do dupe xac d i n h bdi: •

Sp miet mai t i m kiem nhung san p h a m dap Ung dupe m p i nhu cau

•

Co gang phong doan n h u cau

•

Khong de "that bai" cd cho trong thi. trudng

•

Su han che trong hia chpn

Umair Haque, cay but chuyen viet ve k i n h te hpc trong linh vuc truyen thong so, da dua ra cum n i "quan tam ciia khach hang" de m d ta hien tupng tren. Mpt chuong trinh truyen hinh dupe xay dung dua tren cong thUc tren nham t h u hut sU quan t a m rdng, neu sau dupe t h i cang tot, rat de dupe cong chung don xem (cung v d i nhUng chuong t r i n h quang cao d i kem). Nhung chuong trinh do con cd the t h u hut lupng ngudi 282

Cai dau ngan xem clong hon neu khong co hinh thUc giai t r i nao khac va phan ldn chang dudng hch sii truyen hinh da chUng to dieu do. Doi vdi p h i m va truyen thanh cung vay: Hang tram nam qua, nguyen tac chung trong kinh te hoc ciia linn vpc giai t r i da cho thay nguon lpc va kha nang phan phoi co tinh khan hiem, trong khi sp quan tam ciia khach hang lai dvf thUa. Khong phai ai cung co the san xuat phim, dua t i n qua he thong truyen thong hay lam chii mot toa soan bao. NhUng ngudi co the lam dupe dieu do la nhiing ngudi kiem soat dupe phuong tien san xuat. Do la thi trudng ciia ngudi ban va hp cd dii dieu kien de lang phi sp quan tam ciia khach hang. Hay xem mdt so lieu thong ke ve quang cao tren truyen hinh nhe. Sau k h i cd su dieu chinh vao giUa thap nien 80, thdi lupng trung binh hang gid danh cho quang cao tren he thong truyen h i n h tang tU 6 phut 28 giay nam 1982 len 12 p h u t 4 giay nam 2001 (tang gan 50%!). Tai sao nhi? Vi ngudi My tiep tuc danh nhieu thdi gian xem truyen h i n h hon, tham chi k h i luong quang cao tang len. Hp van tiep tuc quan tam den truyen hinh, d i i rang su hai long ngay cang giam sut, vay t h i tai sao lai khong tranh t h i i dieu do nhi? N h u Hague da ly giai, tU each tiep can he thong, "tang t h d i lupng quang cao la cai gia ma ngudi choi t r e n t h i trudng phai chap nhan". Nen chang cd gi phai k i n h ngac k h i quang cao lai chiem vai t r d chi phoi.

283

CAI DUOI DAI

HIEM H O A CUA "CHU NGHIA

HIT'

Phai mat mot thoi gian dai de co the quen di nhiing bai hoc ciia the ky trudc ve su khan hiem nguon phan phoi. Nhung chiing ta dang bat dau l a m n h u vay, bat nguon n i the he dau tien trudng thanh cung Internet. Nam 2001, nhung lan song "cU dan mang" dau tien da budc vao nidi trudng thanh. NhUng dUa tre dung Internet nam 1995 k h i len 12 tudi da budc vao m d i 18 (ma theo Nielsen la k h d i dau giai doan nhan khau hoc 18-34, chinh la d d i tuong ma cac nha quang cao muon nham tdi). Dang chii y, nam thanh nien la nhom it xem truyen h i n h hon. Doi mat v d i hai hia chon: sU da dang vo t | n ciing viec de dang ne tranh quang cao tren mang va truyen hinh, ho da theo hia chon thU nhat - lan dau tien con sd nhUng ngudi xem truyen h i n h trong do tudi 18-34 bat dau giam trong nUa cudi the ky. D u k h u y n h hudng chuyen d i c h do con m d nhat nhung nd da hien hUu: khan gia dang r d i bd truyen thong de den vdi Internet, n d i kinh ti hoc Cdi dudi dai ngU t r i . Trudc su hia chon phong p h u hon, ho hudng su quan tam sang nhung gi ho cho la quan trong nhat - va hda ra do lai khong

phai la chi p h i da duoc lap

t r i n h vdi vd sd cac chuong t r i n h quang cao. Theo each noi ciia Haque, khan gia da bat dau n i t lai sU quan tam ciia ho, hoac i t nhat la chu y den nhirng quan tam ciia m i n h hon. 284

Cai <Mu ngln Bai hoc n i t ra n i nganh giai t r i rat ro rang: hay chia ra nhiing gi m o i ngudi muon. Neu hp m u 6 n san

pham

ngach t h i hay cung cap san pham do. Tuong n i n h u vay, k h i chung ta suy nghi lai ve mUc tien se tra cho nhung san pham hit va cac ngoi sao, chiing ta a i n g bat dau nhan ra ban chat khac biet ciia hang hoa va nhirng ngudi tham gia san xuat hang hoa, ciing n h u dpng luc ciia ho trong t h i trudng m d i nay. Ban chat ciia con ngudi la n h i n m o i vat dudi gdc dp tuyet doi va cue doan, hoac den, hoac trang, hoac thanh cong hay that bai. Thuc te, the gidi la m d t m d hon don dan xen giUa nhiing mang mau khac nhau, nhung lai dua tren nhiing so lieu t i n h toan. Chung ta da quen rang khong phai tat ca cac san p h a m deu cd so khach hang dong, v i phan l d n nhirng san p h a m ta nhin thay tren ke deu duoc ban vol so lupng ldn, it nhat la k h i so vdi nhUng san pham vang mat tren gia. Song phan ldn hang hoa, n i am nhac cho t d i vai vdc deu chi nhan dupe su yeu thich het sUc khiem ton. Hau het cac san pham deu that bai trong viec t r d thanh san p h a m hit, du rang chung van tiep nic ton tai. Tai sao vay? Vi nguyen l y k i n h te ciia n h i i n g ciia hang l d n khong phai la nguyen ly k i n h te chung. Cac ciia hang l d n la ngoai 1?, chU khong phai la p h d bien, song chung ta lai cho rang ca m d t nen cong nghiep dang khan hiem. Chang han, nguyen ly l a n h te ciia Hollywood khong gidng n h u nguyen l y ciia cac kenh video tren mang va ky vpng ve tai chinh ciia Madonna khong gidng vol ban nhac Clap Your Hands Say Yeah. Viec Ha vien My gia 285

CAI DUOI DAI han dieu khoan keo dai ban quyen them mot thap nien niia theo yeu cau ciia n h o m van dong hanh lang cong ty Disney chi la giai phap mia vdi. Nhiing gi co l p i cho Disney khong chac da mang lai Idi ich cho nude My. Va ciing n h u vay doi v d i luat phap han che cong nghe sao chep dU lieu so hoac truyen video. Van de la Cdi dudi ddi khong cd hie lUdng van dpng hanh lang, nen thudng chi cd Cai dau ngan la cd t i i n g ndi. T u duy khan hiem con khien ta r o i vao nhung chiec bay tam ly khac: •

Mpi ngudi deu m u o n t r d thanh ngoi sao

•

Mpi ngudi lam viec deu v i tien

•

Neu khong thanh cong t h i la that bai

•

Chi cd thanh cong ldn m d i la thanh cong thuc sU

•

"Noi t n i c tiep v d i video" = chat lupng k e m

•

"TU xuat ban" = chat lupng k e m

"Dpc lap" = "hp khong the dat dupe thoa thuan"

•

Nghiep d u = khong lanh nghe, khong thanh thao

•

Tieu thp dupe so lupng i t = chat lupng kem

•

Neu san pham tot t h i san p h a m do se hit

Cuoi cung la khai niem "qua nhieu sU hia chpn" gay nen sp choang ngpp, m p t su phan Ung thong dung nhung au t r i , dang de chung ta phan tich trong mpt chuong rieng.

286

THIEN D U O N G

C U A SU L l / A C H O N

CHUNG TA DANG BUOC VAO KY NGUYEN CUA NHUNG SU LUA CHON CHUA CO TIEN LÂŁ VA DO LA DIEU TOT

Nam 1978, chuong t r i n h Saturday

Night

Live da

cong chieu v d kich ngan co tua de "Ciia hang do co Scotland", ve mot ciia hang tpa lac trong k h u k i n h doanh cac mat hang t h d i thudng nhung chi ban ddc co bang dia Scotland. NhUng ngudi chii ciia hang phai doi mat vdi mdt bai toan hoc biia k h i ciia hang rat vang khach - hp ban rat nhieu the loai bang dia ma l y ra phai thoa man duoc su quan tam ciia bat ky khach hang nao. Nhung lai chang cd khach lai vang t d i . V d kich gay cudi d cho nhung ngudi chii ciia hieu cha hieu biet gi ca. Lieu con ciia hieu nao ngd ngan hon ciia hang bang nhac Scotland nay hay khong? Tuy nhien, nam 2004, m d t ciia hang cd ten "Gao danh cho n g u d i giau" da dupe k h a i t r u d n g d k h u Manhattan. Ciia hang nay ban banh gao v d i h d n 20 287

CAl DUOI DAl huong vi. Ngudi ta cho biet, ciia hang kinh doanh phat dat va da m d them h i n h thiic ban hang qua b u u dien. Cung thoi gian do co mot he thong ciia hang co ten la White House chi ban toan do n o i that gia d i n h mau trang. He thong nay thanh cong t o i mUc da l a m xuat hien mot he thong khac co ten goi la Black House. Cau chuyen hai hudc trong qua khU da t r d thanh su thuc ciia hien tai. Chiing ta dang d trong t h d i ky bung n d manh me nhat cac h i n h thUc k i n h doanh trong lich sii. Ban co the thay dieu do dang dien ra quanh ban va nhUng sd heu se giup mirih chiing ro rang hon. Theo cong ty quang cao OMD, co t d i 19 nghin loai ciia hang ca phe Starbucks. Theo sd heu thong ke ciia cong ty Mintel International's Global New Products, chi tinh rieng nam 2003, cd t d i 26.893 loai thuc p h a m va san pham gia dung da duoc tung ra t h i trudng, trong do cd t d i 115 loai san pham lan nach, 187 loai n g u cdc an sang va 303 loai nude hoa danh cho p h u nU. Quay t r d l a i thap nien 60, d o n g xe I m p a l a ciia Chevrolet ban duoc hon 1 trieu chiec trong sd 8 trieu chiec ban ra tren t h j trudng hang nam, chiem gan 13% t h i phan trong tong sd khong qua 40 loai xe. Ngay nay t h i trudng xe h o i da phat trien gap m u d i lan v d i hon 250 mau xe khac nhau (hon 1000 mau neu t i n h ca cac phien ban khac nhau). Chua den m u d i loai m a u xe co doanh sd h o n 400 n g h i n san pham, chiem h d n mdt niia t h i phan. 288

Thien dudng cua su lua chon Tai sao lai co su" bung nd ve su" Ufa chpn nhu vay? Toan cau hoa va chuoi cung qua l d n do toan cau hoa mang lai co the la 161 giai dap cho cau h o i nay. Cac nha lanh doanh 6 mpt quoc gia gid day co the cung cap san pham mang t i n h toan cau. Tren thuc te, Cue Nghien cUu k i n h te quoc gia Udc tinh, tU nam 1972 den 2001, sd lupng cac loai hang nhap khau vao My tang gap ba lan. Mpt phan a i a Idi giai dap nam d ly do ve nhan khau hpc. Nhu t d Tuan Kinh doanh

da thdng ke:

Trong thap nien 50 va 60, nUdc My co sp thdng nhat hon nhieu, khong chi ve sac tpc - vi chua cd lan song ngudi nhap cU n i My Latin - ma con ca trong t u tudng. Ly tudng chii dao khong chi la bat kip vol Joneses ma phai chinh la Joneses - nghia la cung t r d thanh chii 1

nhan ciia nhung chiec xe hoac may rua bat hay may cat co. Khi aia cai tang len vao thap nien 70 va 80, mUc dp giau co da dupe xac dinh laL Chiing ta da thay ddi phuong cham n i "Tdi chi muon la ngudi binh thudng" trd thanh "Tdi muon la ngudi dac biet". De canh tranh vuon tdi tham vpng do, cac cong ty bat dau chuyen tii san xuat hang loat sang san xuat hang loat theo yeu cau a i a khach hang. Rot cupc, Cdi dudi ddi da hien hUu. Cong ty iTunes da cung cap sd lupng dia nhac gap gan 40 lan so v d i he thdng Wal-Mart. Netflix cd the cung cap lupng dia 1

Thuat ngu nay xuat hien trong tieu de ciia tap truyen tranh ciia Arthur R. Momand dang tren td New York Globe, cd nghia la co gang co cuoc song du da bang ban, bang be. 289

CAI DUOI DAl DVD gap 80 lan so vol cua hang Blockbuster va tham chi co the cung cap nhieu hon neu co nhieu DVD hdn tren thUc te. Ve so dau sach, A m a z o n cung cap nhieu gap 40 lan so vdi nha sach Borders. So sanh giiia eBay va mpt ciia hang trung b i n h se thay k h d ma t i n h toan duoc sU da dang, nhutig khong nghi ngd gi mia, cac mat hang cd k h i len den hang nghin.

QUA NHIEU SU LUA CHON Thiic te tren khien chung ta choang ngop khi nghi ve thdi dai tren mang vol moi thti deu san co. Cac cong ty ban hang tren mang cung cap hang hda da dang tdi miic khd ma hinh dung dUdc vao thdi diem chi each m o t thap nien - hang trieu san p h a m v d i nhiing bien the va phoi hop khac nhau. NhUng lieu cd phai ai cung can nhieu hia chon den vay khong? Chung ta co the giai quyet dUdc thuc trang nay khong? Do la cau hdi thudng xuyen duoc dat ra trong thdi buoi hi?n nay, k h i nguon cung tren mang ngay cang tang. Theo quan diem thdng thudng, cang nhieu hia chon cang tot, vd dieu do phan anh thuc te: m o i ngudi khong giong nhau va ho can t i m k i e m nhUng thU phii hop v d i m i n h . Nhutig trong cuon sach nd'i tieng dUOc x u a t b a n n a m 2004 mang Ufa de The Paradox

Choice (Nghich ly ciia lua chpn), Barry Schwartz da lap luan rang qua nhieu hia chon khong chi gay nham lan ma con khien ngudi ta cam thay bat an.

290

Thien duong cua sy lya chon Ong da trich dan mpt cong trinh nghien cuu noi tieng ve hanh v i a i a ngudi tieu diing noi sieu t h i . Dudi day la npi dung chi tiet ciia tai heu "Tai sao sU lua chpn lai khien ngudi ta nan long": Cac nha nghien cUu a i a trudng dai hpc Columbia va Stanford da ke m d t chiec b a n t r o n g ciia hang chuyen ve do an, tren do bay nhieu m i i t v d i cac loai hUOng v i khac nhau va tang phieu t r i gia 1 dola cho khach hang mua bat k y lp mUt nao. Trong niia thdi gian dau, hp bay sau loai huong vi, nUa t h d i gian sau la 24 hudng v i . Cac nha nghien cUu da rat ky ludng, khong gidi thieu nhUng huong v i phd' bien n h u v i dau (vi khach hang co the se chi chpn loai thdng thudng) va hp cung tranh n h i i n g loai mUt la l a m n h u mUt chanh. Ket qua thu dupe rat r d rang: doi vdi sau loai hUdng vi dau tien, khach mua chiem den 30% tong so khach thU; vdi 24 loai huong v i sau, so khach hang chi chiem 3% khach thii. Dieu t h u v i la dpt mUt v d i nhieu huong vi thu hut nhieu ngudi thU hdn - chiem 60% so vdi con so 40% danh cho dpt mUt co i t huong vi; nhung hp lai khong mua mUt. Cac nha nghien cUu cho rang cang dua nhieu lua chpn, khach hang lai cang it va so ngudi hai long con i t hon. Khach hang to ra lung tung, t h a m chi la nan long v i su d u thUa do - tai sao hp phai t r d thanh chuyen gia am hieu cac loai mUt trudc k h i chpn cho m i n h loai mUt phu hpp? NhUng lUa chpn khac da day hp ra k h d i k h u vuc cac loai mUt Ua t h i c h - n h u mUt dau, mUt q u i t , 291

CAI DUOI DAl m u t m a m xdi - de budc vao l i n h vuc la hon cua dau ta va dai hoang. Su do d u va tiec nudi cua khach hang khien bUc tranh t r d nen am dam. Bong nhien co qua nhieu van de ndi len. Schwartz da dung nhung 161 sau de mo ta ket luan do: Khi sd lupng su lua chpn tiep tuc tang len, thi mat tieu cue bat dau xuat hien. Khi sd lupng su lua chon tiep tuc tang hon nua, thi nhung tieu cut leo thang den muc chung ta cam thay ngpt ngat. Den luc do, sp lua chpn khong con co tac dung giai phong chung ta, ma ngupc lai lam chung ta met moi. Tham chi, cd the ndi khien ta b i le thupc. De lam diu di loai dpc td thoi hien dai nay, Schwartz khuyen ngudi tieu dung nen "han che", hay n o i theo thuat ngU khoa hpc xa hpi la khong dupe "tdi Uu hoa". Noi each khac, nen thoa m a n v 6 i n h i i n g gi san hdn la cU b i am anh bdi nhung thU tot hdn 6 dau dau. (Trong bai danh gia tren mang Amazon ve cuon Nghien ly cua lua chon, mpt cay but hai hudc da nhan xet rang anh ta bat gap tan 20 cuon sach ve cung m p t chu de, khong the quyet d i n h nen m u a cuon nao va rot cupc da ra ve tay trang). Toi von la ngu6i hay hoai nghi. Thay v i cho phep m p i ngudi chpn, t h i giai phap hay la chpn giup hp. Bai hpc ciia khoa hpc ban le trong m d t the k y qua (va ca lich sU cac cUa hang bach hoa d che dp Xd-viet cu) da cho thay do khong phai la dieu ma phan l d n khach hang m o n g muon. 292

Thien duong cua su lua chpn Hien nhien, su" hia chon phong p h i i khong phai bao gid cung la su" ket hop hoan hao. Trudc stf hia chpn, ta thudng t y hdi: "6, m i n h dang thich gi nhi?" va khong phai t u nhien ma su suy xet se den vol tat ca m o i ngudi. Nhung giai phap khong phai la han che lua chon, ma quyet dmh de lua chon do khong lam nan long ngudi. Nhu chinh Schwartz ghi nhan: "Mdt ngudi dan song d thi tran nhd den tham Manhattan b i choang ngdp v i tat ca nhUng gi dien ra n o i day. Mdt cu dan New York, von da qua quen v d i su soi dong ciia thanh pho, lai khong cam nhan dupe dieu nay". Khi di qua quay ban mUt d ciia hang sieu t h i , trong toi chpt nay suy nghi hoai nghi dau tien ve nghien ciiu hen quan den mUt m a Schwartz da t r i c h dan. San pham dupe bay ban chat day chiec gia cao h o n 6m, tu mut dau tay, mUt m a m x d i den cac loai m i i t khac. Dudi day la ten m p t so loai mUt: chanh, bac ha vang, ca chua-que-dinh hudng, le-que, le-va, thach hat tieu, quit-mam xdi, dao, cherry-man, dai hoang-dau, cherry chua, va, hon hop q u i t - m a m xdi-dau, cherry den, budl, dUa, dUa-du d i i , dau viing Guam, nho den, hat tieu Jalapeno (ca loai xanh va loai do), dai hoang, qua hoa hong dai, tao cd v i bac ha... ke ca nhiing loai cung m u i vi nhung nhe hdn. Khong chi cd sau hay 24 huong v i ma co t d i hdn 300 loai mut. Tong cong, ciia hang do cd t d i 42 nhan hang vdi trung b i n h 8 l o a i / n h a n mac. T d i t r d chuyen v d i ngudi quan ly. Da nam n a m tU k h i nghien cUu ve mUt dupe tien hanh, sieu t h i da tang so mUt len gan g i p 293

CAI BUOI DAI doi. Ngudi quan ly noi vol toi rang, "Tren thi trudng bay ban cang nhieu loai mutt va khach hang co x u hudng t h u nhirng loai t h u v i hon".

DA DANG LA KH6NG DU Thuc te tren dung la da gay ra cam giac lung tung. Hoac la nghien ciiu ban dau co true trac, hoac cac nha quan ly sieu t h j My phot Id y m u o n ciia ngudi tieu diing. Tdi da giii t h u dien n i cho cac tac gia ciia cong trinh nghien ciiu ban dau va h d i ho heu cd nguyen nhan nao dang sau hien tuong nhUng ngudi quan ly sieu thi, von la ngudi can duoc biet nhat ve lua chon ciia khach hang, lai hd hUng trudc nhung ket luan ciia nghien ciiu do. Cac tac gia da cd l d l giap dap ma ho d u d m h se xuat ban trong mot nghien cUu m d i . Trong tac pham "Bilt nhUng dieu ban thich trong tuong quan v d i phat hien ra nhiing dieu ban muon: A n h hudng ciia muc tieu lam nen lua chon doi v d i su thoa m a n cac quyet dinh", v j giao su trudng dai hoc Columbia Sheena Iyengar va cac dong nghiep da n i t ra ket luan: Bat chap nhirng cai dd do cd qua nhieu su hia chon dem lai, ngudi tieu diing van muon duoc lua chon va ho muon cd that nhieu lua chon. Tuy vay, l o i ich ma su lua chon mang lai khong phai la ban than su lua chon ma chinh t i i qua trinh dupe lua chon. Bang each cho phep khach hang nhan thUc ban than niinh la chii the ra quyet dinh va tao nen su ua thich cung nhu ket 294

Thien duong cua su lya chon qua lua chpn cuoi cung trong suot qua trinh lua chon, vai tro cua su lpa chon dupe tai khang dinh. Hay can nhac 161 yeu cau trong bai bao "Toi ung ho giai phap nhieu lua chpn" dupe dang tren t d Forbes mdi ra gan day "Hay cung cap cho khach hang su lua chpn phong phu va giup hp tim Idem lua chpn". Gid day chung ta da hieu tai sao. Giai phap ma hp t i m ra la tao nhung lua chpn theo each thUc thuc sU giup ngudi tieu dung. Hay ciing dat vao trudng hpp cua mdt ngudi ban le tren mang de xem giai phap nay phat huy tac dung n h u t h i nao. Chang han Amazon cung ban mUt. Nhung khong chi la sau hay 24 loai m u t ma h o n 200 loai, v i A m a z o n da hen ket thi trudng vol cac nha cung cap thUc an loai nho. Tuy vay, van cd su khac biet l d n trong each gidi thieu cac san pham da dang tren thuc te va tren mang. Tai ciia hang truyen thong, san p h a m se dupe bay tren gia. Neu khach hang khong biet hp m u o n loai san pham nao, t h i chi dan duy nhat nam t r o n g t d quang cao san pham dupe gan v o l mat hang do, va su phong doan r i n g nhUng san p h a m cd so lupng l d n n h i t la mat hang hit nhat. Trong k h i do, cac khach hang tren mang lai cd su trp giup l d n hon. Cd v d van k y thuat khai thac thdng tin hi^n cd tren t h j trudng va l a m cho qua t r i n h lua chpn de dang h d n nhieu. Ban cd the phan loai san pham qua cac tieu chi: gia, mUc thang diem, ngay thang san x u i t hoac the loai. Ban cd the dpc nhan xet

295

CAI DUOI DAI cua khach hang da mua trudc do. Ban cung cd the so sanh gia ca cac loai san pham, va neu mudn, t h i t i m kiem tren Google cang nhieu san pham n h u ban h i n h dung cang tot. Cac khuyen nghi se gidi thieu cac san pham ma "nhUng ngudi n h u ban" da mua, va con ngac nhien hon, do thudng la nhung san pham ma khach hang dang thuc su can. D u rang ban khong a m tudng ve loai san pham do, nhung mUc danh gia san

pham

hit se cho biet dau la lua chon hit nhat, giup qua trinh lUa chpn de dang va cung giam thieu nhung dang tific trong giao hang qua dudng b u u dien. Rot cuoc, neu bat ky m p t ai khac chpn mpt san pham nhat dinh, t h i do khong the la lpa chpn t o i . Van de doi vdi t h i i nghiem ve mux la d cho t h i nghiem do da dupe tien hanh khong theo quy cii; tat ca cac loai mUt dupe gidi thieu dong thdi va hudng dan cho khach hang chi la nhung kien thUc san cd ciia hp hoac nhiing gi dupe viet tren nhan mac san pham. Do ciing cWnh la van de ciia cac gia de hang hda trong sieu thi. Tat ca nhirng gi ban cd the trong cay chinh la kien thUc ciia ban - ke ca nhung thdng t i n da i n vao t r i nao ban bang k i n h nghiem hoac qua quang cao, thong diep tiep t h j tren nhan mac va ghi tren gia de hang hda. Phan l d n thdng t i n ma ngudi ban le tren mang sii dung de sap xep sU hia chpn da dang va l a m cho qua t r i n h lua chpn t r d nen de dang - thdng qua mUc danh gia sU Ua chupng, so sanh gia ca, nhan xet - ciing la nhUng thdng t i n ma nha quan ly sieu t h i cd san. Nhung nha quan l y sieu t h i han nhien la khong chia se thdng 296

Thien duong cua su \ua chpn tin do vdi ban - ngudi tieu dung. Bdi le chang cd each nao de chia se, mdt phan v i cd qua i t khong gian gidi thieu san pham tren m o i gia. Nghich ly ciia hia chon don gian la bieu hien ciia su han che ciia the gidi vat chit, noi thieu thong t i n can thiet de dua ra quyet dmh. TU duy theo le thudng la hoan toan chinh xac: Se tot hon neu cd nhieu lua chon hon. Nhung gid day chiing ta hieu rang, chi cd su da dang khong thdi la chua dii; chiing ta can thdng t i n ve sU da dang do va nhirng gi ma ngudi tieu diing trudc kia da lam, k h i dung trudc nhirng lua chpn tudng t u . V d i kha nang nhan biet va sap xep the gidi mang von hon loan thanh mot trat t u theo thU t u ket qua ma chiing ta muon, Google da giup t i m ra giai phap. Su eo le ciia lua chon hoa ra lai la van de ve khan hiem sU giup dd trong lua chon chU khong phai la bac bo sU da dang. Sap xep sai, sU lUa chon se khien ta b i le thuoc; ngupc lai sap xep diing, lua chpn se giai phong chiing ta. Virginia Postrel, m p t cay but ve k i n h te hpc ciia sp da dang, da ly giai tai sao qua nhieu nghien ciiu mang tinh hpc thuat ve su lua chpn dudng n h u lai mau thuan vdi bai hpc n i t ra u i k i n h nghiem k i n h doanh thuc tien hang the ky qua: Vi muc dich khoa hoc, nhirng thi nghiem tam ly da cung cap mpt each he thong nhung thdi quen va tap quan kinh doanh khien sp lua chpn tren thpc te, dac biet la cac quyet djnh khi di mua hang, trd nen de dang hon. Dd la v i cac t h i nghiem dupe thiet ke de hieu t u duy, chU khong phai nam bat quy luat thi trudng... Tren 297

CAl DUOI DAI thut te, con nguoi khong phai la khong thich lua chon, tham chi ca doi vol nhung lua chon khien ho lac loi vi choang ngop. Ho cd thai do lung ning. Trong the gidi thuc, dac biet la tren thi trudng, ho thudng nhan duoc su tro giup nao dd de ra quyet dinh. Trong bai phan tich dang tren t d Thoi bao New York, Postrel chi ra rang cac nha k i n h doanh bat dpng san, cac nha hoach dinh tai chinh, cong cu t i m kiem, va dich v u dua I d i khuyen tren A m a z o n cung l a m tuong tu. "Moi kenh am hieu m p t chut ve chiing ta va m p t chut ve nhung gi cd gia t r i , ma khong l a m giam so lupng lUa chpn. Hp lam dieu dd m d t each thdng m i n h nham t i m r a san p h a m chung ta Ua chupng nhat. NhUng kenh t i m kiem nay giup ta thuc su la ban than minh." Do do, dich v u cudl hdi t r o n gdi da gia tang, mac du nd chua he ton tai each day khoang 20 nam. Postrel g i i i thich "Do nhung han che mang t i n h truyen thong ngay cang giam xuong va t h i trudng cudl h d i cd nhieu su lua chpn, tU thiep m d i den dich v u cho thue xe limousine, nen cac dam cudl ngay cang p h u t tap va cd ca tinh hon". So lupng thanh vien Hiep hpi t u v i n cudl hdi da tang tU con so 27 nam 1981 len 4.000 n a m 2004. John Hagel - mpt nha t u v i n quan ly - cung bo sung them: "Cang cd nhieu su lua chpn, chiing ta cang phai quyet d i n h x e m chung ta thuc su m u o n gi. Chiing ta cang suy ngam x e m chung ta thuc su m u o n gi, t h i chung ta cang t h a m gia sau h o n vao qua t r i n h sang tao s i n pham m a chiing ta mua va s i i dung (thdng qua

298

Thien duong cua su lua chpn qua trinh lua chon a i a khach hang). Chung ta cang tham gia sau hon vao qua t r i n h sang tao san p h a m va dich vu, t h i chung ta cang co nhieu lua chon cho ban than".

NEN KINH TE CUA SU DA DANG Lieu su lUa chon phong phu co khuyen khich ngudi tieu diing mua sam nhieu hon khong? Tren thuc te, chiing ta biet nhieu v i d u ma su hia chon doi dao va phuong thUc tot h o n trong t i m k i e m san p h a m da khuyen khich khach hang sam nhieu hon. Chang han, toi nhan ra la Napster da thUc t i n h dam me t i m k i e m nhUng ban nhac m d i trong t o i va Rhapsody da cho phep tdi theo dudi dam me do m o t each de dang (va hop phap) hdn, nhung ciing khien t d i phai chi tieu gap doi so tien cho dich v u nay. Ciing n h d cd Netflix ma gia dinh t d i dupe xem DVD nhieu hon. Su tang len nhanh chong a i a so cu dan New York deo tai nghe tren dudng chUng t d ho nghe nhac nhieu hon so vol t h d i k y trudc k h i may nghe nhac iPod ra ddi, giup m d rpng hieu Ung ma the he Walkman da tao ra trudc kia. NhUng lieu co phai ngudi New York chi tieu nhieu h d n cho am nhac hay khong? Dang b u o n la con so chinh xac lai khong the n i t ra ket luan n h u vay. Chang han, theo thong ke dau nam 2006, trong hon 4 nam d j c h v u iTunes d i vao hoat dpng, Apple da ban 42 trieu may iPod va 1 t i bai hat cho iTunes de

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CAI DUOI DAl dam bao dat khoang 24 bai cho mot iPod (trung b i n h chua bang tong so 2 CD). Con so tren cung chang an tuong cho lam. Doanh so ban dia CD da giam gan 20% ke tU k h i iPod duoc dua ra cong chung. Vay ngudi tieu diing lam each nao de nap day 8 cung va the nhd ciia ho? Hoan toan dung n h u ban mudng tupng: m u p n ban dia CD, tai nhac mien p h i giUa cac may t i n h (ket n o i giUa cac may t i n h ngay cang tang d u d d i luc b i luat phap nghiem cam) va trao dd'i thong qua mang LAN trong phong ky nic xa ciia cac trudng dai hoc. Tren thuc te, d u co quan niem rang cang cd san nhieu hang hda t h i doanh so ban cang tang, nhung so h^u thong ke hiem h o i da p h i i nhan quan niem nay, dac biet trong trudng hop cac san p h a m cd so lupng nhieu. Tuy vay, theo m d t vai nghien cUu ve tam ly ngudi tieu diing, k h i lua chon cd y nghia t h i cang nhieu lUa chon cang tot - hay chi don gian nd giup tang kha nang ban t i m duoc san pham m i n h m u o n hoac i t nhat la san pham ma ban thich thu. Cd rat i t nghien cuu t i n h huong giong n h u nghien cUu tac dOng ciia viec tang so luong huong v i sUa chua giup tang doanh so b a n mat hang nay. M d t trong nhUng tai heu dupe biet den nhieu trong nghien cUu "cang nhieu lua chpn cang tot" dupe mang ten "SU 16a mat ciia lua chpn", trong dd tap trung phan tich cac ngan hang, cau lac bp ban dem, song bac de chi ra rang ngudi tieu dung lUa chpn nhieu h o n k h i lua chpn 300

Thien duong cua sy lya chon do di ciing vol nhieu lua chon khac. Ngudi tieu diing thich cac rap chieu p h i m cd nhieu phong chieu hon, cac song bac vol nhieu ban hon; k h i ho diing trudc cang nhieu lua chon t h i cang giam thieu nguy co b i vudng vao nhirng san pham ma hp khong muon. Tuong t p n h u vay, Malcom Gladwell da nhan manh trPdng hpp nghien cUu ve nhiing doi t h i i canh tranh trong san xuat nude sot m i spaghetti. NhUng nha san xuat cho rang khong nen loai Ragii trong qua trinh san xuat loai nude sot dac biet, ma thay vao do la thiic day sp da dang - n h u cac dac t i n h cUng, san xuat tai gia, cay - va m d rdng t h i trudng bang each san xuat nhiing nude sot chuyen biet va phan chia t h i trudng. Viec dua ra nhieu lua chpn da dap Ung dupe nhu cau ciia ngudi tieu diing va phan nao da khien nude sot spaghetti nam trong sau loai nude sot co toe dp tieu t h u nhanh nhat tren t h i trudng. Francis Hamit, mpt cay but chuyen viet ve cac chii de ciia nganh xuat ban, da giai thich rang, trong k i n h te hpc co ban, can phai can bang giUa su da dang vol mUc tieu thu: Bang bieu trong cuon sach giao khoa Kinh te hpc cii ky ciia toi la mpt trong nhung vi du kinh dien chung to moi quan he giua san xuat may bay nem bom tam xa vol xay nhung ngoi trudng mdi. Trong trudng hpp tren, ap lpc la van de chi phi. Con doi vol sp lua chpn, ap lpc chinh la thdi gian. Can phai cd thdi gian de tim s i n pham ban muon va so dong ngudi tieu diing se

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CAl DUOI DAI mua nhiing san pham ho thay dau tien, chu khong co rim them nhung san pham gia thap hon. Dieu do giai thich tai sao cac ciia hang ban le dat nhung san pham nho ngay canh quay tinh tien. Su san co va tien dung se giup tang doanh so. Vi the ma nhung ciia hang nay dupe biet tdi vdi cai ten "ciia hang tien dung" nhu ciia hang 7/11 da kiem bon tien n i ban sua, banh mi, bia va nude giai khat vdi gia cao gap nhieu lan so vdi gia d sieu thi. Dieu co ban khong phai la luong hang hda dupe ban ra, ma la can bao dam rang moi t h u deu s i n cd ngay lap nic. Qua trinh phan phoi trong thdi dai ky thuat so co hai tac dpng den m d h i n h nay - khong chi m d rdng kha nang t i m kiem ciia khach hang, ma con giam thieu thdi gian t i m kiem. Theo thdi gian, dieu nay se giup tang doanh so ban va m d rpng t h i trudng n d i chung. N h u chung ta da thay d Chuong 8, Cdi dudi ddi trd nen dai hon va cung day hon.

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NHONG N£N VAN HOA NGACH

CU0C SONG TRONG Trl£ GIOI CAI DUOI DAI sE N H U T H £ N A O ?

Trong rmung ngay tan den t o i ciia dong nhac disco dau thap nien 80, m p t the loai van hoa am nhac Cdi duoi ddi da xuat hien tai m o t n o i trudc kia ning la k h u cong nghiep ciia thanh pho Chicago. Gan niia thap nien sau k h i album Saturday

Night Fever ra ddi, qua t r i n h

thuong mai hda the loai nhac clap va R&B gap nhieu kho khan va da d i den hoi ket. Ngudi nghe loai nhac nay da quay lung lai. Ho qua chan ngan vdi nhiing ban nhac nhat nheo dupe san xuat theo cong thUc ciia nganh am nhac chi co gang sao chep lai nhUng ban nhac hit trudc do. NhUng khan gia ciia mpt tran bong chay d Comiskey Park ciia Chicago da dUOc yeu cau mang theo tat ca nhUng dia nhac disco ma ho khong thich va sau khi tran dau ket thuc, ho vUa nem nhUng chiec dia dd vao dong liia ldn vUa la l d n "Disco rac rudl". 303

CAI DUOI DAl Nhirng tai mot cau lac bo ban dem co ten Warehouse, DJ dia phuong Frankie Knuckles da tao ra mot t h i i am nhac mdi. A n h hang hai ket hop va t r o n cac loai nhac khac nhau de sang tao ra mpt loai nhac hoan toan mdi. Knuckles dem phoi dong disco cd dien, pop Eurobeat vdi nhip tong hpp, am thanh n i loai trong dien n i mdi thdi bay gid, thanh mdt t h i i am nhac hoa t r o n dien cudng, giau nang lupng ciia nhirng t a m hdn m d i dupe tai sinh. Dupe dat theo ten ciia cau lac bp, the loai nhac m d i nay dupe biยงt den vdi cai ten house music . 1

Trong cuon Lich sit nhac House cua Chicago,

Smart

Cosgrove da mo ta khung canh n h u sau: Frankie khong chi la mot DJ, Anh con la kien tnic su ciia loai am nhac nay, la ngudi dua nghe thuat hoa am phoi khi len mpt tam cao mdi. Nhung vi khach thudng xuyen ciia Warehouse van nhd den cau lac bp do nhu mpt noi co khong khi soi dong nhat d Chicago, trung tam dau nao di tien phong trong phat trien the loai nhac nhay, noi ma nhiing ban nhac kinh dien ciia Philly do Harold Melvin, Billy Paul va O'Jays bieu dien dupe phoi vol nhung ban disco dang thinh hanh nhu "Disco Circus" ciia Martin Circus va du nhap dong nhac pop ciia chau A u cua cac n h o m nhac td'ng hpp nhu Kraftwerk va Telex. Loai am nhac do da nhanh chong lan sang cau lac bp khac d Chicago mang ten MusicBox, n o i ma DJ Ron Hardy la ngudi tiep tuc phat trien the loai dd len tam Nhac tai gia. 304

Nhung nen van hoa ngach cao mdi ve am thanh va khong gian bien dien quay cuong, tot mtic ngudi ta cho rang lay cam hung tU viec sti dung heroin. Cuoi cung the loai am nhac dd da chu du tdi mien Bac nude Anh, n o i nhac house t r d thanh nen tang ciia the loai nhac sau nay duoc biet v d i la Rave scene. Diem dang l u u y ve su nd'i len ciia the loai house la d chd nd vtia la su phan Ung doi v d i su sup do' ciia thdi dai cua nhting san pham hit, vtia tao ra m o t nen van hda soi dong cho rieng m i n h . Cac DJ va cau lac bo da sang tao ra m p t loai h i n h am nhac mdi, khac xa vdi the loai nhac pop. Su phat trien cua cac cau lac bp da lam dai them Cdi dudi am nhac va he thong am nhac da chting kien sp tien trien a i a nhieu the loai nhac day sang tao. De hieu ly do tai sao, chiing ta hay nghien ctiu su phat trien a i a nhac house. Nguon goc ciia the loai nay bat nguon t t i nhting DJ huyen thoai n h u Larry Levan von xuat than la DJ ciia cau lac bp Paradise Garage d New York. Cuoi thap nien 70, nhting DJ n h t i Levan va David Mancuso ciing hda am p h o i k h i trong mpt chuoi cac nhac pham ma gid day da t r d nen quen thupc, khien m p i ngtidi den cac cau lac bp nhay thau dem suot sang. Dieu gi da dtia den su toa sang ciia cac ngoi sao DJ? Ngay nay, nhieu nhan to van con dong vai t r d quan trpng. Khdi dau la su lan r p n g ciia nhting cong nght: de dang mua dupe, t t i ban p h o i am den may t h u da he. Dd la nhan to dau tien l a m nen Cdi dudi ddi - su 305

CAI DUOI DAl p h d bien hoa cong cu san xuat. Cong nghe san xuat re da lam giam chi p h i t h u d studio; va cong nghe re ciing khien hang t r a m cong ty t h u bang dia dpc lap co the t h u am va quang ba ve bang dia v o l gia phai chang. Mot sd cong ty t h u am nhac house co ten m d i nhat, chang han n h u cong ty t h u thanh West End da t h u am hang tram dia nhac chi trong thoi gian vai nam ngan ngiii. Tac dpng k i n h te ciia su kien tren la su bung n d dia t h u thanh, tao ra khoang trong ve thong t i n hen quan den dia t h u - va co hpi cho nhirng ai m u o n dong vai tro bp lpc thong t i n giup mpi ngtidi t i m kiem nhting dia t h u do. Nhting bp lpc n h t i vay lai khong the hoat dpng hieu qua neu thieu kha nang tiep can nhting dia nhac nen ngay t t i dau va doi hoi kenh phan phoi vol rao can d mtic thap. Do chinh la dieu ma cac cau lac bp va cac btia tiec cung cap, do do tao nen luc lupng can thiet thti hai - qua t r i n h phd bien hoa khau phan phoi. Trong k h i dai phat thanh b i chi p h o i b d i thong t i n m p t chieu dtiPi h i n h thtic tiep t h i hang bang dia nhirng cong ty bang dia dtia ra nhting album ma hp cho rang se t r d thanh dia hit va chi sau dd m d i biet lieu phong doan ciia hp dung hay khong, t h i cac cau lac bp lai cd dtidc phan h d i ngay ttic khac ciia khan gia. Neu DJ chdi m p t ban nhac ma nhting ngtidi den cau lac bp khong danh gia cao, su khong hai long ciia hp the hien r d ret - hp se khong nhay. V o l nhip btidc ciia m i n h , nhting ngudi den cau lac bp bo phieu ngay cho ban phoi am dd, truyen niem trong dpi va su thich 306

NhOng nen van hoa ngach thu toi DJ. Cac DJ da cham den Cdi dudi dai ciia am nhac va khuyen n g h j n o i dung ma khan gia ciia ho thich nghe de co niem hting k h d i nhay theo nhac. Khi chi p h i san xuat va bieu dien tiep nic giam, nhac house chiing kien sii phat trien manh me vol nhieu loai nhac chuyen biet khac nhau n h u nhac deep

house,

funky house va dub house. Trong b d i canh do, cac DJ can co mot co che m o i de d i n h huong t h i trudng tieu diing phUc tap. Nhung ban than co che nay lai co nhieu nghien ly. Nhieu nam qua, cac nha san xuat nhac house da sii dung nhieu biet danh k h i phat hanh dia nhac. Tai sao lai phai co nhieu biet danh den vay, neu muc dich ciia hp chi la ban dia nhac m a thoi? T u u trung lai, tat ca nhiing the loai biet danh deu la m o t dang khong g h i ten, tao su hon loan ve thong t i n gay hoang mang tren thi trudng. Nhung doi v o l cac DJ, thdng t i n quan trong lai nam d cong ty phat hanh, chU khong phai ban nhac. Cac cong ty am nhac doc lap giong n h u mot chiec the cung cap thdng t i n , cho biet the loai nhac va t i n h chuyen biet ciia dia nhac dd d t r i n h do nao. Cong ty phat hanh cho phep DJ t i m ra nhung ban nhac cd the lam hai long su trong doi ciia khan gia v o l chi p h i thap va hieu qua cao. Theo nghia dd, cac cong ty phat hanh tao nen tang cho su tong hop thdng t i n v o n tan mat tren san nhay. Tren thuc te, d m o t k h i a canh nao dd, ten t u d i ciia cac DJ khong con mang nhieu y nghia n h u trudc, v i cac cong t y phat hanh nhac da cung cap phan l d n 307

CAI BUOI DAI thong t i n co gia t r i . Chang han n h a bo doi am nhac Berlin - Moritz Von Oswald va Mark Ernesms, dupe bik den nhieu v o l cai ten Basic Channel, da cung n h o m cong tac phat hanh bang dia dudi nhieu nhan mac da dang. Mac Burial Mix danh cho loai nhac sau, manh cd giong noi; mac M danh cho the loai nhac

house

manh, sii dung nhac cu d mtic t o i thieu; Rhythm & Sound danh cho nhac t r t i u tuong v o l anh hudng ldn ciia nhip dieu manh; va mac Chain Reaction de chi nhac dien t i i trtiu tuong, sti dung nhieu nhac cu vol anh hudng l d n ciia nhac house

manh.

Moi cong ty phat hanh nhac the hien dac trung rieng ciia dia nhac do nhieu nghe si the hien. Nhan so luong nay len vol hang ngan, ban se hieu thuc trang tieu diing ciia t h i trudng am nhac house phUc tap den mUc nao - va tai sao ngay cang can g h i ten cac cong ty phat hanh tren bang dia. V i cac DJ co the sii dung thdng tin i n tren nhan mac dia nhac, nen hp khong can danh t h d i g i a n de nghe tUng b a n nhac m a Oswald va Ernestus hpp tac san xuat - thay vao do, hp chi can don gian la tap trung vao cac nhan mac p h u hpp nhat vdi doi tupng ngudi nghe. Hp cd the ludt tren Cdi dudi ddi ciia t h i trudng am nhac house m p t each hieu qua ma khong t o n nhieu chi p h i . Cac nha san xuat nhac house cung dua vao chien lupc m d rpng kha nang tiep can san pham. Ngupc lai, so v d i each dan nhan mac san pham, von la each tieu ton ngay cang nhieu thdi gian cho tranh chap kien tung hen quan den van de ban quyen, cac nha san xuat nhac 308

NhOng nen van hoa ngach house (va cac nha san xuat chui noi chung) t i i lau da nhan ra rang viec cho phep cac san pham ciia hp dupe phoi va t r o n am se dem lai l o l ich k i n h te. Mpt dia nhac house thanh cong thudng t h u hut cac nha san xuat phoi am lai; dieu do tao nen mpt he thong. Vi nhting ban phoi am nay thudng dupe p h o i cho cac the loai khac nhau, nen thudng la ban bo sung cho ban goc. Khi so ltidng ban bd' sung tang len, gia t r i ciia he thong se gia tang manh me. Hieu ting tang manh nay lai tao nen co che cho phep cac DJ v o n la ngtidi tong hpp am thanh cd the d i n h htidng Cdi dudi ddi ciia t h i trudng am nhac, r o i nhanh chong, de dang phat hien ra nhting ban nhac cd anh htidng l d n trong tting the loai rieng biet.

TU THOI QUEN 'HOAC DEN TH6l QUEN 'VA' Cdi dudi ddi dang cung cap cho khach hang su lua chpn vo tan. Su phan p h o i d u thtia v d i chi p h i re ciing dong nghia v d i sti da dang, phong p h i i , re tien va khong gidi han - va ciing dong nghia vdi thuc te la ngudi nghe thudng cd k h u y n h hudng dan trai theo sti Itia chpn. Nhin t t i khia canh nganh giai t r i va truyen thong co ban, dieu nay giong n h t i cupc chien giiia nganh truyen thdng truyen thong va Internet. Nhting van de la d cho, m p t k h i ngtidi ta chuyen sp quan tam sang Internet, khong phai la do hp chuyen t t i he thong truyen thdng nay sang he thong truyen thdng khac, ma

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CAI DUOI DAl su" quan tam cua hp t r d nen dan trai. Lpa chpn vo tan rot cupc lai tuong dong v o l sti phan re. Viet trong cuon Corante, V i n Crosbie, mpt nha phan tich ve truyen thong da ly giai n h u sau: Moi thinh gia, khan gia hoac dpc gia thudng la mpt the tong hoa duy nhat ciia cac quan tam chung va quan tam dac thu. Du rang nhieu ca the cd the cung chia se mot so quan tam chung, chang han nhu ve thdi tiet, nhung hau het, neu khong muon ndi la toan bo trong so hp lai cd nhting quan tam dac thu rat khac nhau. Moi ca the thuc sp la mpt the tong hoa duy nhat aia nhung quan tam chung va quan tam dac thu. Chi khoang 30 nam trudc day, mpt-ngtidl-My-trung-binh khong cd kha nang tiep can bat ky mpt phuong tien truyen thong nao de thoa man quan tam dac thu aia minh. Tat ca nhting gi hp cd la phuong tien truyen thdng dai chung ma cd the phan nao dap itng thanh cong nhieu quan tam chung (hay lpi ich "dai chung'). Roi sau dd, cong nghe truyen thong phat trien va bat dau dap ting dupe nhung quan tam dac thu a i a hp. Trong suot thap nien 70, tien bp trong i n an 6p-xet da dan den sp nd rp a i a hang loat cac tap chi chuyen nganh, khong con canh tupng chi cd leo teo vai t d tap chi tren sap bao nua, ma thay vao dd la hang tram tap chi ve cac chii de dac thii. Su pho' bien dau tien ciia he thong cap truyen hinh tuong tp trong thap nien 80, r o i den he thong ky thuat so cuoi nhung nam 90 da lam tang so dai truyen hinh ma ngudi My cd kha nang tiep can t t i con so bon len den hang tram, ma phan ldn la cac kenh chuyen biet (nhu kenh Home & 310

NhOng nen van h6a ngach Garden TV [Nha & Vtidn], Kenh Golf, Kenh Quan sp...). Sau dd, Internet ra ddi da m d ra kha nang tiep can vdi cong chung trong suot thap nien 90 va moi ca nhan trung binh cd the vao hang trieu trang web ma phan ldn de cap cac chu de rat dac thu. Ket qua la ngay cang cd nhieu ca nhan, von trudc kia chi su dung phuong tien thdng tin dai chiing v i dd la tat ca nhung gi hp cd the tiep can, thay vi tiep tuc xem nhung an pham, cac kenh truyen hinh va trang web dai chiing, thi gid day lai dang b i hut vao nhung an pham, cac kenh truyen hinh hay trang web chuyen biet. Cang ngay, so ngudi xem cac chuong trinh truyen thdng dai chiing cang it di. So lupng ngudi do se sdm trd thanh so dong. Cac ca nhan khong he thay dd'i; ho van thudng bi phan re. Dieu thay doi d day la thdi quen truyen thdng. Gid day hp muon thoa man nhting quan tam rieng re ciia minh, nhung lpi ich da von cd t t i lau. Su phan re hien dien nhieu nhu chinh cac ca the vay. Mpi chuyen da, dang va se luon la nhu vay. Sp chuyen ddi tti cai chung sang cai dac thii khong phai la dau cham het cho cd cau quyen life hien thdi, cung khong phai la sti chuyen t t i cai toan the sang nen van hda ciia sp" nghiep d t i hay ciia may t i n h ca nhan. Ma thay vao dd la sif can bang ciia phuong t r i n h hien thuc, hay su tien trien t t i thdi dai "node" - lua chpn gitia cai chung v o l cai p h d bien (van hda dai chiing trong ttidng quan v o l cac nen van hda nhd) sang thdi dai "va". Gid day, van hda ciia chiing ta ngay cang la mpt tong hda ciia dau vd dudi, ciia cai chung vd cai dac t h i i , ciia he t h d n g vd ca nhan, ciia nhirng nha 311

CAl DUOI DAI chuyen nghiep vd nghiep du. Van hoa dai chung khong sup do ma chi ngay cang giam bdt vai tro. Theo do, nhting luc can doi vdi van hda san pham

ngach

ngay cang i t d i . Chung ta da chting kien nhting hieu ting dd trong nganh am nhac. Trong the gidi dia nhac CD, am nhac cd dien chiem khoang 6% doanh sd ban, mtic qua thap de co the cd cho dung tren mpt gia de dia cua he thdng Wal-Mart. Nhting d mang iTunes, ntii cd nhieu dat dung vd cho vd van the loai da dang, t h i doanh sd ban dat t d i 12%. Phim tai heu thtidng hiem k h i dtipc t r i n h chieu d rap hat, nhting lai la m p t trong nhting the loai p h i m dtipc yeu thich d Netflix, vdn dat gan m p t ntia doanh sd k i n h doanh trong linh vpc p h i m tai lieu d My, chang han n h u cac p h i m Capturing

the

Friedmans

(Tom gon gia dinh Friedman) va Murderball (Qua bong chit

choc).

STJ N O I LEN C U A N E N V A N H O A D A I CHUNG C H I A N H A N H SONG SONG Vao thang 7 nam 2005, Anil Dash, mpt nha quan ly ciia cong ty cong nghe blog SixApart da "tan cong" t d Thdi bao New York bang each mac chiec ao phong co chU "GOATSE" trong mpt tam anh m i n h hpa cho bai bao viet ve nhting kho khan neu m u o n thay ddi nhting dieu Google ndi ve ban. Thich t h u ve t r d dua dien rd ciia Anil, tdi con ngac nhien h o n k h i biet rang hau n h t i

312

NhOng nen van hoa ngach khong mpt nhan vien nao cua t o i (va ro rang la khong mpt bien tap v i e n ciia Thdi hao New

York)

hieu

GOATSE co nghia gi. (Toi budc phai he lp ra rang do la but anh nay d o m ddm mat ma nhiirig ke tinh nghien tren mang da co liia gat rang do la dudng link den mpt buc anh quyen n i , giong n h u bUc anh ciia Natalie Portman. Thuc te, bUc anh do khong den mUc khieu dam n h u vay). Song nhieu anh ban t o i ciing gan Idi giai thich vol bUc anh dd de lam t r d dua. Toi cho rang ai cung hieu y nghia ciia GOATSE, nhung toi da lam, Hda ra tren thuc te, chi mpt vai ngudi trong so nhting ngtidi tren mang ma t d i biet la cd the hieu dtipc. Tdi da khong nhan ra thiic te la tdi chi thupc mpt nhom xa hpi nhd. GOATSE hda ra lai la mpt trong nhiing mat ma b i an ma chi cac thanh vien ciia n h o m xa hpi dd hieu dtipc, von dd chinh la dieu ma Anil bieu dien khi anh ta da xac xtipc mac chiec ao i n c h i i dd trong bai bao ciia t d Thdi bao. Toi quyet dinh se t h i i nhting tieu chuan khac de xem heu chiing cd mang t i n h phd' bien n h u t d i nghi hay khong. Tdi bat dau bang viec truyen d i mpt so cum t t i sao rong khac t t i so it ban tren mang tdi nhting ngtidi ban trong ddi thudng, chang han n h t i "Tat ca nen tang ciia ban thupc ve chiing t d i " ; "Nhieu luc lac hon ntia" 1

(More C o w b e l l ) ; " T d i san sang h p p tac v d i d o i 2

Cau tieng Anh la "All Your Base Are Belong To Us", la cau de khang dinh chien thang hay sU vupt trdi. "More cowbell" la cum n i dupe sii dung trong nen am nhac pop cua My, xuat phat tU mpt chuong trinh hai kich 313

CAl DUOI DAI phuong... [dien t h e m vao cho trong]", v.v. va v.v... Nhung cum t t i nho ma t o i nghi la phd bien hoa ra lai dupe sU dung rat han che, tham chi ngay d trong cong ty cua toi. K h i t o i tien hanh mot cupc tham do khong chinh thUc tai h p i thao ve quan he cong chung ma t o i la d i l n gia, t o i da phat hien ra rang chi khoang 10% dai bieu da tting nghe qua nhirng cum t t i nay - va ddi vol m d i cum t t i , ty le 10% la rat khac

nhau.

Neu ban t i m tren Wikipedia nhting cum t t i thupc ve Internet, ban se t i m thay hang t r a m t t i loai n h t i vay. Dtidi day la mtidi cum t t i dtipc nghe den nhieu nhat (dii rang mpt sd tti gid co le lai lac hau roi). Ban da tting nghe thay bao nhieu trong sd do? •

Ellen Feiss

•

The Star Wars K i d

•

Dancing baby

•

Bert is Evil

•

Bonzai Kitten

•

Tourist Guy

•

MC Hawking

•

1337

•

Subservient Chicken

•

First post

Vi dp tren ndi len dieu gi? Nd chi ra rang nhom xa hpi ciia t d i khong phai luon la n h o m xa h p i ciia ban, .... Toi thii Bay khi thu thanh bai hat "(Diing sp) ngifdl tho gat" phat vao ngay 8/4/2000. 314

Nhung nen van h6a ngach ngay ca k h i chung ta cung lam viec, cung chdi va song trong cung mot the gidi Dong sang, di mong la n h u vay. Chinh nhting lute luong va cong nghe cua Cdi dudi ddi - von da dan den su phat trien 6 at ciia su da dang va ltia chon phong p h u trong san pham ma chung ta tieu thu - dang dtia chung ta t o i vong xoay cua n h o m xa hpi. Khi nen van hoa dai chung dtit gay, no se khong hinh thanh nen mpt h i n h thtic dai chung khac. Thay vao do, nhting manh dtit gay se t r d thanh hang trieu the loai tieu van hda, cung t o n tai va ttidng tac theo nhirng hinh thtic phtic tap. Ket qua la, chung ta khong coi van hda n h u mpt tam chan ldn ma la sp ket n o i a i a nhting spi chi dan xen vdi nhau, m o i spi chi l u o n cd san va lien k i t t n f c t i i p vdi nhting nhom ngtidi khac nhau. Tom lai, chung ta dang chting k i i n m p t sti chuyen rninh tti nen van hoa dai chung thong thudng sang nen van hda dai chiing chia nhdnh

song song. Du chung

ta cd nghi theo each nay hay each khac, t h i m o i chiing ta deu thupc ve nhting n h o m xa hpi khac nhau, ddi luc chong cheo (nhti van hda lap di va LEGO), ddi luc lai khong (nhti tennis va nhac p u n k - f u n k ) . Vdi ban dong nghiep, vdi ngtidi than, chiing ta chia se m d t vai sd thich chti khong phai tat ca. Cang ngay, chiing ta se chia se nhieu sd t h i c h v d i nhting ngtidi chiing ta khong biet hoac t h a m chi khong nghi la ca nhan (nhti tac gia cac blog, nhting ngtidi ciing tao danh sach san pham m i n h thich d tren mang).

315

CAI DUOI DAl Moi chiing ta - dii co nghi minh thuoc ve dong van hoa chii l u u hay khong - t h i tren thyc te lai dang di theo nhung nhanh van hoa khac nhau trong m o t so linh vuc ciia cuoc song. Chang han, t o i la ngtidi xem p h i m an khach, nhting khong han nghe am nhac dong phd thong va dac biet la co gu doc sach chuyen biet la cac tac pham ve k i n h te he thdng (rat tiec la cuon sach nay t h i khong phai!). H o n the ntia, k h i chiing ta theo mot gu rieng biet t h i chiing ta thtidng d i xa hon ntia, cho phep sti nhiet thanh dtia chiing ta t o i nhting dam me ve rtiou vang hoac dd cd - v i sti ltia chon phong p h i i giiip ta l a m dtioc dieu do. Virginia Postrel da nhan xet rang su: biing nd kha nang hia chon da dang da phan anh sti da dang vdn da hien htiu ngay trong phan bd dan cti: Moi khia canh nhan dang con ngudi, tti kich cd, hinh dang, mau sac tdi khuynh hudng gidi tinh va tai nang tri tue deu rat da dang. Phan dong chiing ta tap hop thanh nhting nhom d khoang gitia ciia sti phan bd cd the thdng ke duoc. Nhung con nhieu dudng cong ddi xung va nhieu ngudi lai nam d duoi ciia it nhat mpt trong nhting dtidng cong dd. Chiing ta cd the suti tam nhting cau chuyen ky quae hoac doc nhting cuon sach bi truyen, cd niem tin ton giao khac thudng hoac di nhting ddi giay ky quai, mac phai can benh la hoac thich thu k h i xem nhting phim bi cam. Tti xtia den nay, nhting nhan xet tren van luon diing, nhting chi den bay gid t h i chiing ta m d i cd the

316

Nhung nen van hoa ngach cd hpi theo dudi cua chiing. Sp" ndi len ciia nen

van

hoa san pham ngach se giiip dinh hinh lai m o i trudng xa hpi. Con ngudi se thupc ve mpt trong hang ngan nhom loi ich, vdi spi day ket n d i den t i i chia se l p i ich nhieu hon la khoang each dia ly va m d i trudng lam viec. Ndi each khac, chiing ta dang chia tay thdi dai "ban uong nude" , thdi ma tat ca chiing ta cung lang 1

nghe, ciing xem va ciing dpc t t i mpt ngudn han

hep

chii yยงu la nhting npi dung dtipc m p i ngtidi ciing tia thich. Chiing ta dang btidc vao t h d i ky ciia nhting nen van hda sieu nhd vdi n d i dung rat khac nhau. Nam 1958, Raymond Williams - mpt nha xa hpi hpc Mac-xit, da viet trong cuon Culture

and Society

(Van

hoa vd Xd hoi) n h t i sau: "Khong co quan chiing; ma chi cd each nhin m p i ngtidi n h t i quan chiing ma thdi". Cd le ong cung khong the h i n h dung het chain ly ma minh ndi ra.

LIEU THONG TIN CO PHU HOP V O I M O H i N H D 6 KHONG... Nen van hda san pham ngach nay se nhti the nao nhi? Chiing ta cd the quan sat su thay ddi ciia truyen thong de t i m ra cau tra Idi. T i n ttic bao chi la l i n h vuc dau tien chju tac dpng ciia Internet, va gid day ca mpt 1

De chi not ma mpi nhan vien ciia cong ty hay tu tap, ndi chuyen gau trudc khi vao lam viec 317

CAI DUOI DAI the he da trudng thanh ciing vdi ky vong co the n i do tiep can bat ky nguon thong t i n ve bat c i i chu de nao vao bat ky luc nao. Dieu do tot cho nhiing ngtidi nghien tin nic, nhiing lai la t h a m hoa cho nghe dtia t i n . Sii n i t doc ciia bao giay, vol miic an hanh giam hon mot phan ba so vol thoi k y phat trien d i n h cao giiia thap nien 80, la m i n h chiing cu the nhat ve anh hudng nghiem trong ma Cdi duoi ddi da gay nen d o i vdi nhiing nganh k i n h doanh lau ddi. Da cd thdi sUc manh ciia bao chi bat nguon n i kha nang lam chii phuong tien san xuat. Ngudi ta ning hay noi: "Diing bao gid cai ly v d i nha bao". Nhung t t i dau thap nien 90, t i n nic bat dau xuat hien tren man liinh may tinh, chti khong chi d nhiing t d bao giay. Bat ky ai cd may t i n h ca nhan va dtidng truyen Internet dot nhien co stic manh ciia bao chi. Thoat tien, chinh nhting td bao va cac cong ty truyen thong truyen thong khac da dupe t h u l p i . Nhting khi ngay cang co nhieu ngtidi xay diing trang web cho ca nhan va r o i tao blog, t h i cang k h d phan biet dtidc bao chi chuyen nghiep vol bao chi nghiep dti. Trong nhiing linh vtic ma hp yeu thich, t h i tam hieu biet va kha nang viet ciia cac blogger co the bang hoac t h a m chi hon cac nha bao. Ddi k h i v d i t t i each la ngtidi trong cupc chti khong chi la quan sat vien, cac blogger t h $ m chi con co the tiep can nguon thdng t i n tot h o n nha bao. Richard Posner, m p t luat sti danh tieng va ciing la mpt hpc gia ve luat, cho rang dd la m p t sp: dd'i ngoi rat hiem k h i xay ra. Trong m p t bai b i n h luan ve sach dang 318

Nhung nen van hoa ngach tren to Thdi hao New York (ma co le la vi muc dich cham biem), ong da nhan xet rang blogger co the nham toi mOt bo phan doc gia sau hon bat k y m o t t d bao hay mot kenh t i n ttic truyen h i n h nao, ma khong t o n mot xu. Tren thuc te, vol vai tro la cac thi trudng

ngach,

cac trang blog t h u hut lan luot cac khach hang ciia truyen thong dai chiing von chi tap trung vao quan chiing n o i chung: Cac blogger co the chuyen sau vao mot so chii de cu the ma khong nhieu nha bao lam viec cho cac cong ty truyen thong co the lam dupe, v i cac nha bao cang budc pbii co kien thuc chuyen sau thi cong ty cang phai thue nhieu nhan luc hon de dap Ung dupe moi linh vuc. Mpt td bao viet se khong thue nha bao vi gioi danh may chu, nhung nhieu ngudi trong gidi blog lai cd kien thuc bi truyen dd va chinh ho da keo do' sp thong t r i ciia Dan Rather trong nganh truyen thdng My. 1

Dieu khien cac nha bao thuc su phien long la: d i i rang cac blog ca nhan khong the dam bao tinh xac thuc, nhung khong gian blog ndi chung lai cd he thong sua loi tot hon cac phuong tien thdng t i n dai chiing. Toe dp thu thap va sang loc thdng t i n nhanh chong da thay the cho phuong tien truyen thdng thdng thudng. Khong chi cd hang trieu blog, hang ngan blogger cd kien thUc chuyen mon, vdi diem l p i the khac la dpc gia cd the dang tai cac nhan xet lam tang gia t r i ciia blog va thdng tin trong nhirng ldl nhan xet 1

Dan Rather la mQt trong nhirng nha bao xuat sac nhat cua nen truyen hinh My trong suot nam thap ky qua. 319

CAI DUOI DAl cung nhu d ban than blog chay trong khong gian blog voi toe do truyen t i n dien n i . Khong gian blog o i n g cd he thong giam sat tot hon bao chi thdng thudng va cung cd nhieu diem khac biet. Md hinh phan tich cd' dien a i a Friedrich Hayek rim hieu each thtic thi trudng tap hop luong ldn thdng tin mdt each hieu qua, bat chap dac tinh phi tap trung aia thi trudng, su thieu vang ngudi dieu phoi va kien thtic rat han che d nhting ngudi tham gia t h i trudng. Tren thuc te, khong gian blog la mot thuc the td'ng hop - khong phai la 12 trieu thuc the rieng le, ma la mdt thuc the gom 12 trieu nha bao, cay but biem hoa va binh luan vien, ma khong ton bat ky chi phi nao. Nhu the la hang t i n Associated Press hay Reuters cd hang trieu phong vien ma phan nhieu trong so ho am hieu nhung linh vuc chuyen biet, tat ca o i n g lam viec khong luong cho nhting td bao mien phi khong dang quang cao. De tim hieu co che dd, hay oing xem bang bieu aia Technorati ve mtic do tia chuong (dtioc t i n h theo cac dtidng ket n o i den trang web), ke ca blog va bao chi thdng thudng, hay "MSM" (mainstream media) theo loi ndi a i a dan blog:

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Nhung nen van hoa ngach Truyen thong chinh thong va blog canh tranh tren mang

Ngudn: Technorati Hay xem m p t trong nhting cpt trang. Daily Kos (la cot trang thti tP d trong bang bieu). Do la trang web ve chinh t r i theo chti nghia t p do, chii yeu do Markos Moulitsas Ziiniga, mpt nha hoat dpng xa hpi 6" Berkeley, (lieu hanh. Trang nay co so dtidng ket n o i den nhieu hon td Chicago

Tribune

va hang ngay t h u hut gan 1

trieu lppt ngudi ghe tham. Hay n h i n dudng cong d phia xa hon (dung hang 65 gan ra vupt ra k h d i k h u d n khd' trang giay) de t i m Instapundit. Dd la blog ca nhan ciia Glenn Reynolds, m p t giao su luat 45 t u d i ciia T r u d n g 321

CAI DUOI DAI dai hoc Tennessee. Bat cu* k h i nao ong r 6 i rai, v i giao sti nay lai dang rat nhieu bai viet ve cac chu de quan tam, t t i chinh t r i hoc t t i do den cong nghe nano. Do la ngtidi co t r i tue, co chinh kien va nhanh nhay nen ong da t r d nen ndi tieng. V i n d i tieng, nen ong cd tam anh htidng ldn. Dtidng ket ndi t t i trang web cua ong cd chieu htidng tao nen dong ket n d i t d i trang web hit, ma thtidng vtiqft hon tat ca chi t r t i nhting trang t i n ldn nhat. Trang web cua ong dtipc k i t n d i (dtidng link) nhieu htin trang cua Sports

Illustrated.

Moi blogger ke tren cd luong "dtidng link" cao hon hau het cac t d bao d My. Tat nhien, do la phep so sanh khap khieng v i cac bao thtidng tap trung mang ldnh doanh vao phat hanh cac an pham. Nhting neu ban la doanh nghiep l a m bao, bang bieu tren cung khien ban khong khdi ban khoan ve ttidng lai cua nganh nay trong the gidi Cdi dudi ddi. Trong cuon ThU gtii nhd dau tu mqo hiem tre tuoi, Christopher Hitchens da viet rang m d i sang ong thtic day va kiem tra su song cua m i n h bang each chop lay t d Thdi bao New York vdi trang dau co dong chti "Td bao dua tat cd nhirng

tin tiec dang xem". Dong chti

dd da ton tai thap nien nay qua thap nien khac, ngay nay qua ngay khac. Toi da mtidng ttipng rang, hau het doc gia cua t d bao k i n h dien nay t t i lau da khong con de y den bieu tuong pho truong trong giong cd m d do ntia. Ban than t d i hang ngay ciing n h i n dong chti nay va m o i luc n h t i vay t d i van thay b u t bdi. Neu t o i van cd the l a m b a m trach cti la tai sao ho lai nhuc ma toi 322

Nhung nen van hoa ngach va ho coi t o i Id cdi gi va dieu do co nghia qudi quy gi neu do ro rang khong phai la su ngao man, tit kieu va phe binh nhti no von toat len, t h i i t nhat t o i ciing biet rang rninh van dang song". Khau hieu ciia t d Thdi bdo New York cd xuat x t i tit cuoi the ky 19. Nam 1897, Adolph Ochs, chii tda soan mdi da nghi ra cum t t i nay, xem do n h t i mpt don tan cong doi vdi nhting t d bao doi t h i i d thanh pho New York thdi bay gid, von dtipc biet den nhti nhting t d bao la cai. Nghia ban dau ciia khau hieu do da mat d i va gid day cum t t i do nghe vtia ngao man, lai vtia trich thupng. Lieu da bao gid khau hieu do diing hay chtia? Co le la khong va hien nhien la ngay nay t h i cang khong chinh xac. Nhti Jerry Seinfeld da cham b i e m rang: "That kinh ngac la so ltidng t i n dien ra hang ngay tren the gidi lai thtidng chi vtia van v d i k h u d n khd' t d bao". Ben canh khau hieu do, t d Thdi bdo New York gid day phai canh tranh khong chi v d i cac t d bao d thanh pho New York va d n o i khac ntia, ma con v d i mpt tap the t r i tue va thdng t i n tren mang ciia cong chiing. Quyen lpc nam trong con mat ciia ngtidi quan sat, chti khong phai da gan v d i ban than thuc the. Su t p hao ciia cac nha bao va bien tap vien ciia t d Thdi bdo chinh la d cho, bat chap sU canh tranh tren, hp da manh cong trong viec tiep tuc dtia t i n , dat chtiPng t r i n h nghi sp". Ro rang, t i n ttic va thdng t i n khong con la p h a m v i chuyen biet ciia nhting ngtidi chuyen nghiep ntia.

323

CAI BUOI DAI Voi su* co mat cua khoang 15 trieu blogger, kha nang mot so i t blogger se dang tai nhung t i n bai quan trong va co y nghia la rat tot va cang tot hon. K h i nhirng bo loc ciia chiing ta duoc cai thien, kha nang nhan ro nhiing bo loc do se cang nhay ben hon. T i i each tiep can truyen thong, sii canh tranh se tang len, d i i t i i phia nao di chang niia. Cac doc gia se t h i c h dieu nay hon. Dii m u o n hay khong t h i sii phan nho ciia van hoa la tat yeu.

HANG TRIEU MANH VO NH6 Lieu sti phan nho ciia van hoa la dieu tot hon hay xau hon? Nhieu ngtidi cho rang van hoa dai chiing dong vai tro nhti mot chat ket dinh xa hoi, gan ket moi ngtidi lai v d i nhau. Nhting neu gid day, k h i chiing ta chi l a m nhirng viec ciia rieng chiing ta, t h i lieu cd con nen van hoa dai chiing khong? Lieu l o i ich ciia chiing ta cd con ttiong t t i vol l o i ich ciia hang x d m hay khong? T r o n g cuon sach Republic.com,

giao sti luat ciia

t r u d n g Dai hoc Chicago Cass Sunstein da lap luan rang, nhting nguy co do la cd that - nen van hda tren mang tren thiic te dang khuyen khich sti phan ciic giiia cac n h o m xa hdi: "Khi l i n h vtic truyen thong toan cau phat trien chay theo khach hang, xa h o i se dung trtidc nguy co b i phan nhd, cac cong dong chung cd nguy co b i giai the". Ong da nhac t d i t d bao nd'i tieng Daily Me, m o t t d bao ciia ca nhan Nicholas Negroponte ciia

324

NhOng nen van hoa ngach Phong Truyen thong Dai hoc MET. Doi voi Sunstein, the gift ma trong do tat ca chiing ta deu dang dpc t d bao Daily Me la the gioi "ban khong can xem qua cac chii de va bai viet ma ban khong t i m kiem". Khong may khd khan, ban se biet dich xac thong t i n ma ban m u o n tim, khong hon, khong kem". Christine Rosen, nghien ctiu vien cao cap ciia Trung tam Dao dtic va Clnnh sach cong da chia se lo ngai tren ciia Sustein. Trong bai luan i n tren t d The New Atlantis, ba viet: Neu nhiing cong nghe nay tao dieu kien thuan loi cho sir phan cue trong chinh tri, chiing se cd anh hudng nhu the nao den nghe thuat, van hoc va am nhac? Khi chiing ta vdi vang n m each nhanh nhat, thuan loi nhat va ca nhan nhat de cd dupe thii ta muon, heu chiing ta cd tao nen nhung san khau ca nhan tp do hay nhiing phong thu am tinh xao? Lieu cd phai chiing ta dang cd suy cho chii nghia ca nhan sang tao hay chii nghia ca nhan hep hdi? Dd la sp m d rpng lpa chpn hay bao mdn gu tham my? Rosen lap luan, tac dpng ciia nhung cong nghe nay la sp ndi len ciia "vai t r d ciia cai tdi", nghia la sp theo dudi gu rieng ciia m d i ngudi m p t each hoan toan v j k y va hep hdi. TiVo, iPod va n p i dung ciia tat ca cac loai dich vp n h u vay cho phep chung ta sang tao ra cau chuyen ke van hda cho rieng m i n h . Ba n d i tiep, v d i y cho rang dd la dieu rat t d i te: Bang each tao cho chiing ta ao anh ve kha nang kiem 325

CAI DUOI DAI soat hoan toan, nhung cong nghe nay co nguy co khien chung ta khong bao gid con biet den cam giac ngac nhien niia. Nhiing cong nghe dd khuyen khich sp lap lai ciing nhac ciia nhung noi am anh, thay vi uom mam cho gu tham m y Oai oam thay, Uong mot the gidi nhd hep do cong nghe chi phoi, chiing ta lai thay viec ton trpng ca tinh rieng ngay cang t r d nen khd khan. Lieu Rosen cd diing hay khong? T d i cho la khong; tren thuc te, doi v d i toi, dudng n h u su that lai hoan toan ngtipc lai. Mdt the gidi ciia nhung dieu rieng biet thuc ra lai la the gidi ciia lua chon d o i dao, nhung rihting dinh hudng d i i manh dudi h i n h thUc khuyen nghi va cac dang bo loc khac xuat hien khuyen khich ngay cang nhieu su t i m t d i . Chung ta l a m day nhiing chiec iPod v d i nhiing ban nhac n i nhting ngudi ban va TiVo khong ngung goi y nhting chuong t r i n h t r i n h mdi ma chiing ta cd the thich dua tren gu thudng thtic ciia nhiing ngtidi khac. Thiic tien t t i Netflix cho chiing ta thay rang: k h i duoc yeu cau chon bat k y p h i m nao trong tuyen tap hang chuc ngan phim, ngtidi tieu diing khong chi v u i dau vao nhiing p h i m tai heu ciia thdi The chien lan t h t i hai, nguoc lai, ho m d rpng gu thtidng thtic ciia rninh, kham pha nhiing p h i m k i n h dien trong thang dau tien va chuyen sang loai p h i m ket hpp khoa hpc v i i n tudng vao thang t h t i hai. Trong k h i do, khong gian blog la vec-to l d n nhat dtipc tao nen danh cho nhting tieng n d i m d i . PhtiOng phap ket noi y ttidng vol thong t i n cd gia tri, t t i bat cti nguon nao, chuyen nghiep hay nghiep dti, dang tao 326

Nhung nen van hoa ngach nen mot lpc ItiOng manh me va da dang. Rui ro chinh d6i vol blog la su phan tan do co qua nhieu nguon t i n . Bat cti ai doc t i n tren mang ma khong m d mang nhan quan van hoa cua minh, t h i den mot luc nao do se chi thay cai gdc t o i ciia the gioi blog, hoac can duoc dao tao lai ve y nghia ciia cac dudng d i n . Do khong cd thdng t i n nao tren cac trang web mang tinh ap dat nen ban co the tham khao nhieu ngudn thong t i n de dua ra quyet dinh. Dieu do danh dau su ket thuc ciia thdi ky n h d i nhet thdng t i n chinh thong ciing nhirng the che l u o n cho m i n h la diing. Nd ciing danh dau su nd'i len ciia thdi dai thong t i n da chieu ddi hdi va ciing xting dang duoc nghien ctiu. NhUng ngudi trac tudi sau muoi khuyen chung ta nen nghi ngd su ap dat, song ho lai khong cho chung ta phuong tien de lam dieu dd. Ngay nay, chung ta da cd cong cu. Van de la lam the nao de sir dung chung m o t each cd hieu qua nhat ma khong b i choang ngpp bdl thdng t i n thieu chac chan. Dieu quan trpng la m p t xa h p i biet nghi van va co kha nang giai dap nhting cau h d i ay se la xa h p i lanh manh hon nhting xa hpi chi don gian chap nhan nhting gi ma mpt n h o m nhd cac chuyen gia va the che truyen dat lai cho hp. Neu su gan ket chuyen nghiep khong con la bieu trung ciia q u y i n hanh, t h i chiing ta can xay dung m p t h? thdng chuan muc cho rieng m i n h . Dieu dd khuyen k h i c h chiing ta nghi cho chiing ta. Wikipedia la budc k h d i dau de k h a m pha m p t chii de, chti khong dua ra thdng t i n cuoi ciing. 327

CAI DUOI DAl Thoi ky t h u dong cung da d i den h6i ket. Ban co the tam niem dieu do vao thdi ky dinh cao a i a truyen hinh khi chiing ta o i n g xem mot noi dung tren truyen hinh, nhting vao t h o i diem do, co k h i ban than chiing ta cung thtidng thtic nhting n o i dung dd theo each nhin ciia rieng minh - "choi bowling m o t n u n h " trong thdi 1

gian chieu chuong t r i n h truyen hinh. Ngay nay chiing ta l a m rat nhieu viec khac nhau tren mang, nhting bang each doc cac bai viet, n d i chuyen tren mang hoac chi theo gtiong ciia m o t so ngtidi, chiing ta cd nhieu co hdi gap gd cac ca nhan khac. Nhirng gi chiing ta da de m o t mat trong nen van hda dai chiing lai chinh la nhting gi chiing ta dang the hien v d i m o i ngtidi. Ngay nay, chiing ta khong hoan toan b i phan tan, ma d i i n g h o n la dang tai ket hop v d i nhau de tao thanh nhting n h o m nhd theo cac k h u y n h htidng khac nhau. Gid day, nhting "ban uong nude" gan n h t i hien htiu khap m o i n o i v d i nhieu loai khac nhau va m o i ngtidi n i quyet d m h se den chiec ban uong ntidc nao. Thay v i gan ket long leo b d l chat ket d i n h trung lap 1

Lay theo tieu de aia cuon sach Choi bowling mot minh: SU sup do vd hdi sinh aia cong dong My (2000) cua Robert Putnam. Trong do, Putnam da lay vi du ve choi bowling de minh hpa cho ly do tai sao su sut giam ve thanh vien trong cac td chuc dan su dan tdi sut giam mule do dan chu. Mยงc du so ngudi choi bowling tang len trong suot 20 nam qua, nhung so ngudi tham gia choi theo doan, doi lai giam. Hp chi choi vdi tinh chat ca nhan, khong tham gia vao thao l u | n hay tuong tac xa hpi de anh hudng tdi moi trudng dan chu ciia cac doan, dpi. 328

NhOng nen van hoa ngach trong nen van hoa dai chiing nhan tao, t h i chiing ta co kha nang gan bo chat che vol nhau hon neu cang nhieu ngudi chia se sd thich ve von hda

ngach.

Mac dii su suy vong ciia cac the che van hoa chinh thong co the day m o t so ngudi d i theo k h u y n h hudng khep k i n ciia nhUng ca nhan ciing quan diem nhung toi lai cho rang qua thdi gian, su hieu k y cung v o l kha nang tiep can thong t i n gan n h u vo tan se khien m o i ngtidi cdi m d hon, chti khong phai khep n i i n h hon. Thdi dai ciia nhting cai chung cd ve giong n h t i trang thai t t i nhien ciia su: vat, song nd chi la san p h a m ciia cong nghe truyen thdng cuoi the k y 19 ma thdi. Trtidc do, hau het cac nen van hda deu mang tinh dia phtiting. Trong tuong lai, van hda se dua tren su chia se sd thich va nhieu nen van hda se cung t o n tai song song. Van hoa dai chiing cd the ngay cang mat vai trd, nhung van hoa chung ciia con ngudi t h i khong. Chiing ta van se chia se quan niem vol nhting ngtidi khac, nhting khong phai vol tat ca m o i ngtidi.

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M A N

H I N H

V O

T A N

VIDEO SAU THOI DAI CUA TRUYEN HINH

"Khong phai v i nhiing khan gia la ngudi tam thudng va ng6 ngan ma truyen hinh trd nen tam thudng, thieu lanh manh va ngd ngan. Truyen hinh chi la each thtic truyen dat, vi don gian mpi ngudi co x u hudng dac biet giong nhau d nhung sd thich tam thudng, thieu lanh manh va ngd ngan ciia minh, nhung lai vo cung khac nhau trong nhting sd thich tao nha, mang tinh tham my va cao quy." - David Foster Wallace

Khong ai cd the h i n h dung tuong lai ciia truyen hinh se n h t i hien nay. Vao ngay 19 thang 1 n a m 2006, Google da khai truong dich v u tien ich Google Video mpt t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi gom nhting hinh anh dpng. Ctia hang video hao nhoang t r e n iTunes ciia hang Apple co the co nhieu ndi dung truyen hinh hon, nhting Google lai cho phep bat ky ai ciing cd the dtia video

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Man hinh vo tan aia ho len trang web mien p h i va dat gia ma khong ton bat ky chi p h i nao. Ket qua co the phong doan dupe la sp xuat hien a i a mot tap hpp Ion xpn, gan n h u tuy tien ve n p i dung, t t i nhting mau quang cao b i cam den video ve tre em da dtipc dang tai. Tuy nhien, dieu do cung giup hinh dung ve mpt the gioi a i a sp" da dang vd tan, noi video thuong mai va nghiep d u canh tranh true tiep v d i nhau... va thtidng t h i phan thang thupc ve nhting tay nghiep du. Trong bat cti ngay nao, trang YouTube cung deu tai nhting video cap nhat va nd'i tieng nhat tai thdi diem do. Khi cuon trang mang xuong, ban se t i m thay cac clip cd npi dung thuong mai (tti Bdo cdo cua

Colbert

den nhting lam lac a i a Britney Spears) dtipc t r o n v d i nhting chp ngan ve nhirng chti cho ngoc nghech, cac chuong ttinh quang cao hai, va ca canh m p t con bach tuoc an mpt chu ca map (qua that la k i n h ngac). Nhting trang tiep theo va tiep theo ntia la nhting video clip giong nhti vay: n h t i canh trtipt tuyet, nhting bai hat vui nhpn va nhting ngtidi choi games rat, rat gidi. Den mua Xuan nam 2006, nhting ngtidi t r u y cap trang YouTube da dua len m a n g 100 n g h i n doan video/ngay va nhting ngtidi x e m da xem khoang 100 trieu clip/ngay bang each dua true tiep len trang nay hoac htidng dan ngtidi t r u y cap t d i mdt trang mang khac nhti vao cac blog. Dieu do tudng duong vol 5 trieu gid xem video/ngay, bien YouTube t r d thanh trang mang co so dpc gia ttidng dtidng v d i m p t he thong

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CAI DUOI DAI truyen h i n h hang trung. Google da mua cong ty nay vol gia 1,65 t i dola vao cuoi nam 2006. Ngay nay, Google Video va YouTube da trcV thanh kenh phan phoi Ua thich khong chi doi vol cac nha san xuat tac pham Cdi dudi ddi, ma con d o i vol cac studio va truyen M n h mang m u o n t h u hut nhirng khan gia moi. He thong truyen thong co the giup Google Video trdi thanh ciia hang hru t r t i d t i heu, hoac don gian la noi chtia nhung thong t i n gidi thieu ve cac chuong trinh bieu dien sap tdi. Google Video da t r d thanh nguon cung cap thong t i n cho cong dong ngudi My goc An, noi hp co the t i m thay nhung chuong t r i n h H i n d i von chi duoc phat song d A n Dp (dang de nghi ngd tinh hpp phap!). Gid day, nhirng nha l a m p h i m A n Dp cd the biet lieu cd ai m u o n tra 12 dola (hoac 3 dola cho mpt ve xem phim/ngay) de thudng thUc nhting tac pham ciia hp hay khong. Ly do khong co d i i de phan phoi gid khong the bien m i n h cho sti cam doan ntia. Trong k h i dd, Microsoft, Yahoo!, AOL va nhting cong ty dich vu Internet khac da bat dau m d t h i trudng video cho rieng m i n h . Trang web l d n nhat thupc the loai nay dang t r d thanh doi t h i i canh tranh ciia truyen h i n h chinh thong. So lupng ngtidi xem video ca nhac ciia Yahoo! da dtia trang web nay len v i t r i nam gitia MTV va V H 1 ve t h i phan khan gia. Ngay cang nhieu ngtidi xem cac v d hai kich dtipc yeu thich ciia Jon Stewart tren mang so vol xem qua truyen hinh. Nhting chtiOng 332

Man hinh vo tan trinh video tren mang thdi ky cao diem n h t i T i k i Bar TV thtidng t h u hut hang t r a m ngan ngtidi xem m d t ngay, ttiong dtiong so lupng ngtidi xem cac chtiong trinh truyen hinh cap ttiong doi ldn. Vao thdi diem viet cuon sach nay, chuong t r i n h The Abrams Report

tren kenh t r u y e n h i n h MSNBC, v d i

ngan sach nhieu trieu dola va n h o m san xuat hang chuc ngtidi, cd so luting ngtidi xem trung binh moi ngay khoang 215 ngliin. Trong k h i dd, Rocketboom, m o t chtiong trinh hai kich m d i ttiong t t i n h t i Jon Stewart duoc xay dung tren mang bdl mdt e kip chi cd hai ngtidi vol vai bang video, hai chiec den va chiec ban do bia cac-tdng, da thu hut khoang 200 nghin ngtidi xem m o i ngay. Gid day, chtiong t r i n h nay cung ban quang cao va chi trong m a n dau da t h u ve 40 ngan dola t t i nam doan quang cao (spot) keo dai 30 giay/doan. Cd le con so tren khong the cao dtipc bang doanh so ciia truyen hinh, nhting chac chan cac dai truyen h i n h cung them khat ty 1? l o i nhuan nhieu n h t i the. ThUc te horn nay da dtipc dp" doan t t i mdt thap men trtidc, nhting phai chd den k h i bang tan rdng t r d nen phd bien t h i dieu dd m d i dien ra. The he trudng thanh oing Internet va co t h d i quen sti dung bang tan rpng d cac phong k y tuc xa dai hpc My gid day hoan toan co the thti thai thtidng thtic video tren man hinh v i tinh. Dii rang cang ngay thtic te cho thay hp cang khong can phai lam n h t i the. Sti bung n d ciia he thdng truyen hinh gia dinh dang ket n d i bang tan rpng t d i ca phong ngii. He thdng TiVo, cac may quay video k y thuat sd 333

CAl DUOI DAl va cac chtiong trinh video-game ket noi bang tan rpng nhu: Xbox 360 dang gop phan dua nhirng noi dung tren mang t d i cac tivi thong thudng. Chung ta de nhan thay rang nhting mau video tren Google Video se chang the de doa bo phim truyen hinh The Sopranos. Nhting rot cupc t h i phan phoi khong phai la rao can duy nhat doi vdi truyen hinh, ma chi p h i san xuat chinh la mpt trong so nhting lire can. Viec san xuat chtiting t r i n h CSI can nhieu thiet b i hon mot chiec camera va chi co nganh truyen thong dai chiing mdi co the san xuat nhting bo p h i m do sp nhu Lost. Nhting nhting chtiPng t r i n h co chi phi san xuat chi bang mot phan nho chi phi ciia chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h truyen thong ciing cd the t h u hut dtipc khan gia. Dung chi nghi t d i Nhting video hdi htfdc nhat cua My, von la thti rat de nghi ra. Hay nghi tdi cac chuong trinh the thao dia phtiting va cac quan tam han hep hon; nhting chtiong t r i n h quang cao thti v i ban muon xem hoac nhting bai thuyet t r i n h d cac hpi thao ma ban khong the tham du\ Blogger Thomas Hawk da ly giai: Chang han horn nay toi xem chtiong trinh CSI Miami, nhung neu cuoi man co chtiong trinh tau lupn va toi lai la ngtidi dac biet ham mo mon tau ltipn, thi khi chuong trinh t h i tau lupn d California dtipc truyen Uen mang, chac chan toi se xem chtiOng trinh do thay viCSI. Neu horn nay tdi xem mpt chtiong trinh truyen hinh, nhting tdi lai thich dpc tac pham ciia tac gia Hunter 334

Man hinh vo tan S. Thompson hon xem truyen hinh va neu chuong trinh tren mang cho phep toi xem buoi noi chuyen cua Hunter S. Thompson tti trudng dai hoc Wyoming, thi chac chan toi se xem buoi noi chuyen do thay vi CSI. Gia sU tdi 16 tudi va ban nhac tdi Ua thich khong nam tren bang td'ng sap ma lai la ban nhac choi loai nhac skate punk . Do dd, ddi vdi tdi, nhung chuong ttinh am nhac skate punk duoc sang tac de dang va dua len mang chac chan se thu vi hon chuong trinh American Idol. 1

Ngay nay, sd lupng khan gia truyen hinh trong dp tudi tu* 34 den 80, vdn la dp tudi ly tudng ve nhan khau hpc cho cac nha quang cao, da dat mUc cao nhat va bat dau cd chieu hudng sut giam, v i sUc hap dan mang tinh tuong tac cua Internet va cac games video ngay cang thu hut nhieu hon sp quan tam ciia hp. Nhin chung, sd lupng khan gia xem truyen h i n h van luon cao, nen hien chua phai la thdi ky khung hoang ciia truyen hinh. Nhung thdi diem Internet t r d thanh ddi thii thuc su ciia truyen h i n h dang den gan. Van de la phai t i m ra each giai quyet.

Day la loai nhac phd bien trong mon trupt van, dong thdi pbin ldn nhirng thanh vien trong cac ban nhac skate punk cung tung la nhurig ngudi choi mon the thao nay. 335

CAI BUOI DAI

CAl DUOI HINH THANH Neu ltitit nhe ngon cai de chuyen qua hang tram kenh truyen hinh so, tivi co the tao cam giac mat tp" do. Dung la n h u vay. Dieu ma chung ta tudng tupng ve nganh truyen hinh hoa ra lai chi la mpt manh nho cua the gidi video ma thdi. Co cau cac kenh truyen hinh hien tai hau n h u chi cung cap nhung chuong trinh dupe chu trpng du de lap day khung thdi gian 24 gid trong 7 ngay. Nen kenh DIY va kenh History Channel tieng Tay Ban Nha dupe cho la du tieu chuan, trong khi kenh Halo 2 Physics Hacks hay kenh Cool Robots (NhUng chii Robot de thuong) lai chua dat dupe tieu chuan dd. Ban cho rang do la su mat mat cd the chap nhan dupe? The con bp p h i m an khach vao nam ngoai Project

Runway

tren kenh Bravo, t t i lau da b i dau t h u dia ky thuat so ciia ban xoa d i hay chtia bao gid dtipc t h u lai? Ngay nay, vai tro chi p h d i ciia m p t so kenh truyen h i n h va sti suy tan ciia tivi la bieu hien ciia nhirng can t r d trong mang ludi truyen h i n h cap. Tivi van d trong t h d i ky ciia nhting chiec gia de hang chat hep, mac d i i bai hpc ve Cdi dudi ddi la sp da dang thtidng bao gid ciing t o t hon. Hon m p t thap nien qua, sp gia tang dung ltipng cap khong the so sanh v d i sp phat trien trong sang tao video va sir gia tang so ltipng khan gia tiem nang tren mang. TiVo co the giup khac phuc p h a n nao, i t nhat la bang each dtia nhan t6

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Man hinh vo tan quyet dinh la thdi gian ra khdi phuong t r i n h tinh toan, nhirng chiing ta con lau m d i dat den mo h i n h ciia iTunes - cho phep tai xuong bat c i i n d i dung nao vao bat ky thdi diem nao. Trong tat ca cac nganh truyen thdng truyen thong, truyen binh gid day la nganh cd kha nang t i e m tang ldn nhat phai chiu tac dong ciia cac nhan to Cdi dudi dai: â&#x20AC;˘ Nganh truyen hinh san xuat nhieu ndi dung hon bat ky nganh cong nghiep truyen thdng va giai t r i nao. Uoc t i n h t r u y e n h i n h san xuat hang n a m khoang 31 trieu gid ndi dung truyen Mnh. Dii rang con so nay khong n h i e u bang dai phat thanh, nhung phan ldn chuong trinh phat thanh chi la trd chuyen hoac gom cac chuong t r i n h am nhac da duoc t h u thanh san, nen phat thanh khong cung thuoc mpt n h o m v d i truyen liinh. Them vao do, moi nam cd khoang 115 trieu bang video so dupe ban cho cac may quay video xach tay. So lupng bang video san xuat hang n a m qua la dang k i n h ngac, nhung... â&#x20AC;˘

Chi mpt t i le rat nhd trong so dd den dupe tay ban. ThU nhat, trung b i n h m o i gia d i n h My bat dupe khoang 100 kenh tivi. Mac d u nghe t h i cd ve nhieu - ttic la khoang 876 ngan gid phat video m o i n a m - nhung con so do chi bang chua day 10% lupng video dupe phat d My (khi ban t i n h ca h o n 400 kenh truyen h i n h quoc gia n i ve tinh bang tan cao

CAl DUOI DAI va he thong so, va tat ca cac kenh truyen hinh ciia phuong n e n khap ca nude). Te hon, t r t i phi gia dinh ban co may quay video (va con so nay chi chiem khoang 15% so cac gia dinh My) va neu mot ai do danh mot khoang thdi gian r o i rai cua minh de tim trong danh sach phat song cac chuong trinh va thu lai, con neu khong t h i chac chan ho se de Id hau het cac chuong ttinh tivi. Mdt k h i ban da bo Id mot chuong t r i n h nao t h i chac chan se khd co co hoi xem lai. Chi cd mpt t i le rat nho nhirng chuong ttinh dd duoc phat lai d cac kenh khac va chi mpt bp phan i t hPn nhieu dupe sao sang dia DVD. â&#x20AC;˘

Thuc ra t h i ty le n d i dung dupe san xuat ra so vdi noi dung den dupe tay ngudi tieu diing cao hon bat cti nganh cong nghiep nao. Cac nganh kinh doanh khac co the san xuat nhieu ndi dung - n h u nganh i n an chang han - nhung nhting npi dung i n nay san hon rat nhieu (xem Google). Nhung chi co truyen hinh coi nhting npi dung quan trpng ma no san xuat ra la thti bo di. Diing nhti vay, rat nhieu npi dung da b i bd xd. Nhting khong phai tat ca va khong nhieu chtiong trinh b i bo d i sau thdi ky huy hoang.

Khong thieu nhirng con ngtidi thong rninh dang nghi each de dtia tivi ra khoi t i n h the be tac tren. Nhting dieu dd khong he de dang. Trtitic het v i phan l d n cac dai truyen hinh chi la nhirng ngtidi thue npi dung chti khong sd htiu n p i dung. Dieu dd co nghia la hp khong cd quyen t h u l p i t t i nhting n d i dung t t i lieu.

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Man hinh vo tan Tham chi doi vdi nhung ngtidi sd h i f u cac noi dung truyen hinh, viec phat hanh video khong theo t n i tinh vao thdi diem phat song ban dau ciing vd ciing khd khan. Quyen ciia tac gia rat han che, tham chi con phut tap hon k h i cd nhirng thoa thuan phan phoi theo khu vuc (von mau t h u l n vdi ban chat toan cau ciia Internet) va su hia chon ciing phat song. Van de ban quyen am nhac trong video cang nan giai hon. Ban muon biâ&#x201A;Źt ly do tai sao ban khong the xem cac tap phim WKRP in Cincinnati

qua dia DVD? V i the loai

phim sitcom ( p h i m hai t i n h huong) nay dien ra d trudng quay tren nen vo van cac ban nhac rock k i n h dien. Se rat ton kem va khd khan de x i n giay phep cho nhiing ban nhac da dupe sii dung trong chuong trinh. (Tren thtic te, chtiong t r i n h nay dtipc coi la m d t trong nhiing chtiong t r i n h hit kho i n thanh dia nhat b d i v i nhiing kho khan trong viec dtia chtiong t r i n h nay ra thi trtiting l d n hon bat cti chtiong t r i n h nao khac). Cac chtiong trinh k i n h dien n h t i Married...

with

Children

da duoc sao ra dia DVD tren nen nhac khac vdi nen nhac phat song ban dau, khien ngtidi ham md b u t boi.

TTVI N G O A I K H U O N K H O T H O N G T H U O N G Nhting con mdt the loai video khac, ngay tti dau da dtipc sang tao de phat tren Internet. Loai video dd von la san pham ciia sii lan truyen cac may quay video ky thuat so va cong cu san xuat h i n h anh dpng tren

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CAI BUOI DAl man h i n h - lai khong phai chiu nhirng han che ve luat phap. V o n dupe san xuat ngay n i dau de chieu tren mang mien phi, nen loai video nay cung cap nguon chuong t r i n h phong p h u va mao hiem nhat cho thoi dai hau truyen thong. Hay xem Barrio305, mot dich v u truyen hinh tren mang cung cap video am nhac My Latin, cac cuoc phong van va van hoa Latin d do t h i . Noah Otalvaro nha dong sang lap dich v u nay da noi: "Hay nghi den MTV...

nhung

bang

t i e n g A n h - T a y Ban Nha

(Spanglish)". Moi ngay, dich v u nay cung cap khoang 50 ngan p h u t video t o i 5 ngan ngudi su: dung. Neu so vol tieu chuan ciia truyen l u n h t h i con so nay con nho be (am nhac My Latin khong phai danh cho bat ky nguoi nghe nao), nhung dieu ly t h u nam d each thtic phat trien cua dich vu. Trang web tren duoc xay dung dtia tren md hinh phan phdi video do Brightcove sang tao. Cd nghia la Otalvaro va nhting ngtidi anh em khong phai nghi each chuyen video cho ngtidi sti dung; ho chi viec dtia cac video do len mang nhti dang tai vao blog va Brightcove se p h u trach mang phan phdi. Thuan l o i hon, neu cac trang web khac mudn su: dung ndi dung a i a Barrio305, hp chi vi?c copy ma HTML vao trang web a i a m i n h va hp se cd video dd. Dang chu y, Barrio305 cung thu dtipc doanh so t t i quang cao do so ltipng ngtidi xem ngay cang tang. Jeremy Allaire, nha sang lap ra cong ty Brightcove, da m d ta hieu ting nay n h t i sau: 340

Man hinh vo t?n Cung voi viec ngudi tieu dung do' xd truy cap Internet, bat chap dp cham i ach cua modem dial-up va cac trang web cong kenh, hp se do xd truy cap trang web nay - mpt trang web dem lai cho hp nhieu tien ich ma khong mot cong ty hay mpt nganh kinh doanh don le nao cd the lam dupe. Hp se quen rang moi lien he giua hp vdi chuong trinh video dupe thpc hien nhd cd ket noi ciia mdt hop den dupe noi vdi tivi, ma thay vao dd, hp se thudng thtic thoai mai cung mpt luc ca chuong trinh truyen hinh lan truy cap trang web bang bat ky mpt may tinh ca nhan nao. Quan trpng hon ca, nen kinh te hpc dai chiing ca ve muc dp va pham vi ma Internet dang cung cap se dupe md rpng sang linh vpc san xuat video, linh vpc ma san xuat va phan phoi video se khong mat may cong sue, chi don gian nhti tao mpt trang web va cung la nen san sinh ra hang trieu nha san xuat va lap trinh mdi. Chinh Gregg Spiradellis, nha dong sang lap trang web hoat hinh Jib Jab, da tting v i von: "Khan gia chinh la mang ltidi ket noi".

NGAN HON, NHANH HON VA NH6 GQN HON Dieu dau tien dang chti y ve npi dung ciia Google Video va Barrio305 la hau n h t i tat ca cac video deu keo dai toi da la 3 phut. Dp dai nay v o n hiem k h i thay tren truyen h i n h thtidng danh thdi ltipng 30 p h u t / chtidng trinh (hoac 22 p h u t m p t k h i ban t r t i thdi gian

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CAI BUOI DAI quang cao). Thay vao do, day la dieu vo cung m d i me - mpt su hai hoa gitia xem truyen h i n h t h u dong va ludt web chu dong. Khi ban nghi n h u vay, t h i thdi luong 30 phut se chang co gi la ky dieu; don gian chi la each chia ke hoach phat song thanh nhieu phan bat dau va cham dtit trong thdi gian mot tieng. Ngoai ke hoach phat song, cac hinh thtic giai t r i va t i n nic se xuat hien vdi bat cti ltipng thdi gian nao t t i nhting mau video keo dai 30 giay, den chtiong t r i n h hoa nhac 3 tieng, t h i 30 phut se chang cd gi la quan trong. Giong nhti rat nhieu tap quan khac ma chung ta da coi la sti hia chon van hda, thdi quen cting nhac san xuat cac chuong t r i n h video khoang 30 phut thtic sir phan anh sir khan hiem trong phan phoi. Den mot ngay, thdi quen do se phai nhat di, nhtiting chd cho hang loat video cd thdi ItiOng khac nhau, phan anh dtipc sti da dang ve thdi gian tap trung ciia con ngtidi cung nhti the loai noi dung phong phu, chti khong phai sijf tien dung trong xay dung chtiong t r i n h va tiu tien quang cao. Song dd cung con la m p t v i dp ve tac dpng doi k h i gay kinh ngac ve sti chuyen dich tti m d hinh phan phoi htiu han sang vd han; nd cung chting to cho thay t t i duy khan hiem tham can co de bam re trong nen van hda ciia chung ta. Chuyen sang video bang tan rpng va cham dtit lien he vdi cac chtiong t r i n h da len hch trtidc se khien dp dai trung b i n h ciia cac chitting trinh 342

Man hinh vo tan ngan di. That bat ngd, no se lien quan t d i nhung gi chiing ta muon; chut khong phai nhirng gi ma cac kenh truyen hinh muon. Tuong t t i nhti vay, sti nd'i len cua video tren may dien thoai cam tay, khdi dau bang video tren iPod va cac may dien thoai cam tay cd the quay video, se dien ra dong thdi vdi nhting n o i dung video ngan gpn de xem trong luc tranh t h u thdi gian k h i tren dtd buyt, chd ban, hoac luc dang nghi gitia gid lam. Dac biet, cac chtiong trinh the thao cung dtipc chia cat thanh hang chuc doan video cd thdi luting khac nhau: ca chtiong trinh, nhung diem ndi bat, cac ltipt choi cltinh, hai phut cudi... Tdi cho rang cac chtiong t r i n h 30 p h u t chinh cung giong nhti sd phan a i a bao giay - mot h i n h thtic do sti khan hiem vยง phan phdi tao ra va gid day da qua thdi ky hoang k i m . Nhu cau se dan den sti chuyen hudng sang nhirng n p i dung giai t r i ngan hon nhting dai hon ve phan n p i dung thtic te va sti toai nguyen tang len. Nhting nhting thdi ltipng trung b i n h tuy hung se khong con chd dung.

HOLLYWOOD TAI GIA Mpt the loai video khac co the dtipc chuyen ddi trong the gidi Cdi dudi ddi la p h i m anh. 0" day, chiing ta da chung kien nhirng thay ddi mang t i n h dtit doan. Mpt trong nhirng chuyen b i e n l d n nhat t t i van hda dai 343

CAl DUOI DAl chung sang van hoa ngach eta dien ra ni dau thap nien 80 d i lien vdi sp ra ddi cua may ghi am va quan trong hon la cac ciia hang cho thue bang dia. Trudc do, so lupng p h i m ma ngudi My trung hru co the xem vao bud'i t o i la khoang ba den b o n p h i m chieu tren truyen hinh, cpng vdi mot vai v d kich co the dang trinh chieu d rap hat dia phtiOng. Sp" ra ddi cua cac p h i m video cho thue da dtia hang ngan p h i m den m o i gia d i n h vao m o i toi. Ket qua la, su chuyen dich n i kieu truyen thdng thiic ep (du dudi 1

hinh thUc truyen hinh hay d rap hat) sang truyen thong niu keo. Dpt nhien ngudi tieu dung dupe trao quyen t p do yeu cau bat cU mpt bp p h i m nao ma hp thich, loai quyen lpc ma chi each day vai thap nien, chinh Walt Disney ciing khong the hinh dung ra dtipc. Su m d rpng kha nang lua chpn p h i m da gan lien vdi nhUng chuyen bien l d n ve chi p h i tiep can phim anh. Trttdc kia, tieu chuan se la m p t ngudi - mpt ve, t h i gid day, chi v d i chi p h i rat nhd, ban cd the chieu p l u m cho so lupng ngudi xem tuy thich trong gia dinh ciia m i n h . Trudc kia, Hollywood v o n k h i n h ghet va phan d o i k i c h liÂŁt budc chuyen bien nay, r o i budc phai mien ctidng chap nhan va gid day lai nhiet thanh ling hp. (Hay n h d lai nhUng giai doan ban p h i m ban dau d cac ciia hang ban le v d i gia tU 70 dola den 80 dola - cai gia dupe t i n h dtia tren so tien ma mpt gia d i n h b i n h thtidng phai tra cho b u u dien de xem bp p h i m m i n h yeu t h i c h 2-3 lan). 344

Man hinh vo tan Rob Reid, ngtidi sang lap ra dich via am nhac ky thuat so thoi ky dau Listen.com, da mo ta tac dpng lanh te ciia qua ttinh chuyen bien nay: Dau thap nien 80, cong nghe cho phep don vi tieu diing co ban nhat ve phim chuyen tu* xem phim d rap sang xem phim d nha - mpt trang thai ddi hdi sp "giai thoat" so lupng ldn phim anh de dap ting nhu cau mdi ve phim. Xem phim d nha la giai phap tiet kiem ngan sach hern, nhung van con rat nhieu lpc can. Thoat hen, ngudi ta thuyet phuc Hollywood rang se la khong diing ban chat ciia ngtidi My neu mpt gia dinh cd nam ngudi lai chi tra chua den 20 dola de xem bd phim ma hp muon (ngupc lai vdi bp phim ma kenh CBS chpn, tat nhien la mien phi - neu ban cho rang 30-40 phut quang cao se khong anh hudng chut nao den tinh than ciia ban). Ket qua la, cac smdio lap luan (va lap luan nay sai nhu thpc te da chung minh) rang mtic dinh gia va chenh lech d cap dp thap cd the dupe tinh toan tren co sd tinh mtic gia ma moi ngudi phai tra de tiep can mpt chtiong trinh truyen hinh - chti khong phai la td'ng so thdi gian va so tien ma ngtidi tieu diing tieu ton cho san pham ciia anh. Ndi each khac, cac smdio rat kinh ngac khi nhan ra rang mpt gia dinh nam thanh vien (hay nhd khong phai la bon v i dd la thap nien 80) da tra 20 dola de xem bp pWm ET: The Extraterrestrial

(ET: Sinh vat ngoai

hanh

tinh) trong rap se chang bao gid chiu bd ra 20 dola de thue bang ET. Hp da quen mat hai dieu: T h t i nhat la td'ng so thdi gian va tien bac ma m p t gia d i n h danh 345

CAI DUOI DAl cho p h i m anh se tang len k h i gia d i n h do co the xem bat k y mot p h i m nao ho muon, chti khong phai bat cii p h i m nao dupe tiep t h i trong thang do; t h i i hai va it ro rang hon la hp da quen khong t i n h rang tong so tien ma ET mang lai cung se tang len k h i bp phim vuon tdi hang trieu ngtidi vo danh - nhting ngudi se khong tra 20 dola ma co the chi la 2,95 dola de xem bp phim nay. Sp xuat hien ciia may quay va cac ciia hang cho thue bang dia da m d ra thdi dai ciia sp liia chpn vo tan. Cac ciia hang nay da tang so ltipng p h i m cho thue vao cac toi t h t i bay len hang t r a m lan. Truyen hinh cap ciing tang so kenh truyen hinh len hang tram lan. Ngay nay, N e t f l i x cung tang n g u d n cung len hang t r a m lan. Internet se tang len sd lan la vd tan. Moi k h i cong nghe m d i cho phep cd nhieu liia chpn hon, d u dd la may quay hay Internet, t h i doi hdi ciia ngtidi tieu diing ciing se tang len. Ndi mpt each don gian, sti liia chpn la dieu ma chiing ta mudn va rd rang la dieu chiing ta da luon m u d n cd.

346

K H O N G CHI L A GIAI TRI CU0C CACH MANG SAN PHAM NGACHSE DI DFJN DAU?

Trong chuong nay, toi se phan tich nam v i du ve Cdi duoi ddi ngoai linh vuc truyen thong va giai t r i . Cac v i du se di tU nganh che tao sang dich v u va md rpng nguyen tac ciia Cdi dudi ddi sang cac nganh k i n h doanh cd dong gop phan ldn trong cac nen k i n h te ciia the gidi.

EBAY Doi vdi mdt cong ty khdi nghiep chua day mudi nam vol y dinh ban dau chi n h u m p t t h i i nghiem nhd de xem heu Internet cd the dong vai t r d tot hon mpt ciia hang ban re nhUng do vat cii hay khong, t h i su phat trien ciia eBay diing la mpt hi?n tupng. Mdi ngay co khoang 60 trieu thanh vien dang ky ban hoac mua hon

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CAl DUOI DAI 30 trieu san pham, bien eBay thanh mot trong cac nha ban le l d n nhat the gidi - l a m trung gian cho nhiing giao dich t r i gia hon 100 trieu dola m o i ngay. D u so lupng san pham tuong duong nhau, nhung co su khac biet ldn giua eBay va Wal-Mart. Phan ldn hang hda tren eBay khong the t i m thay tren cac gia de hang d cac ciia hang l d n truyen th6ng va phan l d n nhiing ngudi ban hang khong phai la nhung nha ban le truyen thong. Thay vao do, eBay the hien nguyen ly ciia Cdi dudi ddi ca d khia canh san pham lan khia canh ngudi ban hang. Do la mdt m d hinh t h i trudng cd dien do nhirng ngudi sii dung tao nen, con ban than eBay chi don gian la tao dieu kien cho cac hoat dong dd. EBay da ap dung m p i thii thuat ciia Cdi duoi ddi, m d rpng sp" da dang den mUc khd h i n h dung dUdc trudc k h i cd sp ra ddi ciia Internet. Cung gidng n h u Amazon, eBay dupe xay dung dUa tren quan niem ve kho phan phdi hang hoa: Tat ca nhUng gi eBay cung cap chi la mpt trang web ma tai do, khach hang va ngudi ban gap gd, thoa thuan gia ca (mpt niia thdi gian thpc hien thdng qua qua trinh dau gia khdi diem, mia thdi gian con lai la mua theo gia an d i n h trudc). Do dd, chi p h i hru kho ciia eBay bang khong. EBay ro rang khong dOn gian den mUc chi bat may t i n h len va doi theo su bien ddi ciia gia ca, nhung mo h i n h nay cung gan n h u vay. EBay con la mo h i n h t u phuc vu, trong do ngudi ban thiet lap mpt danh sach cac san pham ciia rieng minh, t p lo dong gdi va giii thu. Do dd, eBay co the lcinh doanh phat dat, ma sd ngudi l a m viec lai rat i t . Doanh thu 348

Khong chi la giai tri trung b i n h tren mpt ngudi lao dpng dat khoang 5 trieu dola, gap gan 30 lan cua Wal-Mart. Cuoi ciing, eBay con cung cap nhUng bd foe thong t i n , chii yeu dudi hinh thUc t i m kiem va phan loai nhieu tang nac, giup khach hang t i m dung san p h a m m i n h can. Pham v i san p h a m ma m d h i n h eBay cung cap da vuot tren k y vpng ciia m o i ngudi. EBay ro rang da dong vai tro ldn hon mdt dich v u ban hang ton kho ciia nude My. Cong ty nay ciing la nha k i n h doanh xe oto cu ldn nhat va ban nhieu nhat cac p h u kien oto. EBay ciing la mdt trong nhirng cong ty ban dung cu the thao l d n nhat va nha buon ban may tinh l d n nhat. Vdi viec thau torn Half.com (gom nhirng san pham co lupng tich trU qua ldn) va Shopping.com (ban cac san pham m d i tren mang), gid day eBay da m d rpng t d phan dau den phan cuoi ciia Cdi dudi, ban ca nhirng san pham hit m d i nhat, nhUng s i n pham ngach xa n h i t va c i nhirng s i n pham duy nhat. Theo nghien cUu ciia cong ty ACNielsen n a m 2005, hon 724 nghin ngudi My cho biet eBay la nguon t h u nhap cliinh yeu hoac thU yeu ciia hp. 0" A n h , Nielsen phat hien ra r i n g i t nhat mpt p h i n t u mUc t h u nhap ciia hPn 68 nghin don v i doanh nghiep thii cong, n i cic ciia hieu CD den nganh dieu khac deu dua vao trang web nay. Trung b i n h cU m o i mpt doanh nghiep dua vao eBay thue khoang chin nhan cong va gan mpt niia so doanh nghiep dd t h u hon A lai nhuan n i trang web nay. 3

Rot cupc, eBay la nhd tap hop cac doanh nghiep nhd. Nhung eBay lai khong p h i i la t h j t r u d n g Cdi dudi 349

CAI DUOI DAI ddi hoan hao, v o l ly do ma t o i va n h o m sinh vien ciing cong tac ciia trudng Kinh doanh Stanford k h i nghien ciiu trudng hop eBay da phat hien ra ngay n i dau. Mpt trong nhiing cau hoi ma chiing t o i dat ra la: tai sao eBay k h o n g co n h i i n g y t u d n g n h u d t r a n g web Amazon, chang han n h u khuyen nghi, danh gia ve san pham, xep hang theo gia, cham diem va nhiing bo loc tinh v i khac. Cau tra 161 la that ngac nhien, eBay thuong khong biet nhiing san pham nao dupe ban tren trang web ciia minh. EBay biet ai dang ban va ai dang mua, nhutig v i danh muc san pham do ban than ngudi ban lap nen va m o i ngudi ban lai mo ta san pham theo each khac nhau, nen khong ton tai cai gidng n h u "doti v j hru kho" hay SKU, mac ten (so san pham duy nhat) ma hau het nhUng nha ban le sii dung de theo ddi san pham ciia minh. (Chi co m p t vai trudng hpp ngoai le n h u dia CD hay oto - nhutig san p h a m m a eBay khuyen khich ngudi ban sii dung mUc phan loai va thuat ngU chuan trong cac kho hang hoa ciia hp). Thieu cac thong t i n d cap dp san pham, eBay khong the cung cap nhieu cong nghe bp lpc t h o n g t i n h i e u qua n h u phuong tien khuyen nghi, von da thuc day n h u cau tang len manh me d nhUng nha ban le Cdi dudi ddi khac. Hdn nUa, do ngudi ban co the gidi thieu san pham theo nhieu each khac nhau, ke ca viet sai ten, nen d o i v d i khach hang se cang khd khan hdn de biet dUdc heu hp co thpc sp t i m dung tat ca cac mau ma san pham ma hp dang can hay khong. 350

Khong chi la giai tri Thuc te do phan anh kha nang rat de b i ton thuong ciia eBay; neu khac phuc dupe diem yeu nay, eBay se la mot t h i trudng tuyet vol. Phan ldn doanh so ban cua eBay k h o n g p h a i den n i n h u n g cu gia ban bup be Beanie Baby cu ky, ma n i gan 400 nghin ngudi ban vUa va nhd khap n o i tren the gidi, nhiing ngudi sU dung eBay n h u la n o i gidi thieu san pham ciia m i n h . NhUng phan l d n hp lai cd trang web rieng va Google Froogle, Yahoo! Shopping, va cac nguon td'ng hpp khac cung khong ngung t i m cac each thUc thong m i n h hon de lay nhUng thdng t i n can thiet n i hang t r a m ngan thuong gia va tao nen m p t t h i trudng ao cung cap nhiing so sanh san pham ma eBay khong cd dupe. Thach thUc doi v o l eBay la l a m dupe tuong n i trong p h a m v i dich vu ciia minh, ngan chan d o i t h i i canh tranh bang each cung cap nhUng bp lpc thdng t i n tot hon, giup khach hang t i m diing san pham hp can va mua san p h a m dd v d i niem t i n khong chi vao ngudi ban ma con vao san pham nUa.

MAY T R 0 N KITCHEN AID Cd the ban khong nghi rang hien tupng Cdi dudi ddi cung hien hUu trong nhUng chiec may t r p n l a m bep, nhung nd lai t o n tai va tat ca deu lien quan den mau sac. KitchenAid dupe biet den khong chi vol chat lupng ciia cac do dung l a m bep dang cap, m a con v i mau sac da dang ciia san pham. KitchenAid dupe x e m la

351

CAI DUOI DAl mot trong nhutig t h t i tao nen k h u y n h hudng mau sac da dang tren the gidi. Neu ban den m o t ciia hieu ban le n h u Target, ban se thay ba loai mau ciia may t r o n KitchenAid duoc trung bay: trang, den va m d t loai mau khac. Loai mau thU ba thudng la mau dac biet, chang han n h u mau xanh co-ban ma KitchenAid da thuong luong v d i nha ban le de ddi lay khong gian trung bay cho khong chi la hai mau ma la ba mau. So luong da dang nho khong chi giup l a m n d i bat san pham KitchenAid trong sd nhUng chiec may t r o n khac va tang tong doanh sd ban, ma cong ty nay con phat hien ra rang them mot mau thU ba thuc su da l a m tang sd luong may t r o n mau trang. Ly do ma KitchenAid dua ra la sU trung bay day mau sac da t h u hut khach hang den v d i quay hang KitchenAid trong k h u vuc ban do gia dung tai ciia hang ban le, va nhirng pham v i mau sac khac nhau lam nen net rieng biet ciia ten m d i KitchenAid ma khach hang danh gia cao. Tuy vay, mpt k h i chu tam vao nhung mau sang mau, sau k h i suy nghi, nhieu khach hang da nhan ra rang hp da t i m lai dupe gia t r i va tran trpng mau trang cd dien, trudng t o n ciing t h d i gian va do chinh la san pham cudi cung hp quyet d i n h mua. Den gid t h i tam on. Nhung m d i ciia hang ban le nen chpn mau thU ba nao? Va nhting mau nao KitchenAid nen m d i chao? Cong ty co m p t bp phan chuyen gia ve m a u sac va nhUng chuyen gia khac ra quyet dinh, nhung can cd mpt "he thdng lpc dau tien", nen ddi hoi su t h a m gia ciia nhan t d khach hang. Mpt k h i quyet 352

Khong chi la giai tri d i n h dupe dtia ra va san pham dtipc bay tren gia t h i nhirng bien so khac dtipc xet den, nhu" dieu kien trung bay va cac san pham cua cac doi thu canh tranh khac. That kho de biet duoc tai sao hp lai ban san pham nay hoac khong ban san p h a m kia. Chi den gan day, gan n h u da cham dtit qua t r i n h chpn lpc va quyet dinh: KitchenAid se cung cap cho cac nha ban le bat k y mau nao, nhting m o i nam chi co khoang tti sau den bay mau dtipc dtia ra ban cho khach hang va nhting mau do tuy thupc vao sp hia chpn cua nha ban le. Nhting trong t h d i gian t t i 2001 den

2003,

KitchenAid da xay dung mdt he thong tren mang cung cap tdt cd cac mau sac - thdng thudng cd hon 50 mau vol cac mau ma khac nhau. Neu ban m u a may t r p n tren trang Amazon hay KitchenAid.com, ban cd the chpn bat k y mau nao trong bang gidi thieu mau. Bao gom ca nhting ke thdng thtidng v d i mau sac tao bao chi cd tren mang nhti: mau ho tran, mau vd quyt, mau nam viet quat, mau nho, mau xanh ngpc, mau hung do, mau vang chanh va cac m a u khac ntia. Dieu t h u v j la d cho k h i khach hang dtipc phep hia chpn mau tuy thich t t i bang 50 mau cua KitchenAid, hp khong chi dting lai d con so sau hay bay mau n h t i nhting cufa hang ban le. Thay vao dd, hien ttipng Cdi dudi ddi xuat hien. Tat nhien la m a u den va trang van la nhting mau ban chay nhat, cung v o l phan l d n nhting loai khac ntia cd mat trong cac ciia hang thdng thtidng. Nhting tat ca cac m a u khac ciing van ban dtipc. M o i nam, t r o n g bang m t i d i m a u dtipc tia t h i c h nhat, xuat 353

CAl DUOI DAI hien nhung mau ma khong ai nghi rang thinh hanh. Nam 2005, mau vo quyt nam trong so do. Khong mot nha ban le truyen thong nao dam chpn mau do va thanh that ma noi, den ca KitchenAid cung khong dam chac l y do tai sao mau do lai t r d nen t h i n h hanh. Nhirng nhan to co the anh hudng t d i lua chpn mau sac bao gom: nhirng do vat xuat hien trong cac chuong t r i n h tivi dtidc yeu thich, mau ma nhirng ngudi cd anh h u d n g ve k h u y n h h u d n g t h d i trang sti d u n g n h u Martha Stewart hoac chi la sti thay d o i mau sac theo m u a m p t each n g a u n h i e n . N h t i n g c h i d e n k h i KitchenAid cung cap kenh thong t i n tren mang cho phep khach hang ltia chpn tU hang loat cac san pham, t h i cong ty nay m d i biet khach hang cd n h u cau tiem tang ma bay lau nay cong ty khong tan dung dtipc.

LEGO Neu ban chi biet LEGO qua le sinh nhat ciia bpn tre va qua san pham bay ban trong ciia hang do choi, t h i ban m d i chi h i n h dung ra mpt ntia cong ty. Phan con lai la LEGO cung cap san p h a m cho nhirng ngtidi dam me, t t i nhting dtia tre m u o n co nhieu nguyen lieu xay nha cho den ngtidi ldn, von coi gach la do de xay nhting k h u o n mau cuoi ciing. LEGO k h d i dau la mot doanh nghiep dat hang qua thti, bang each chon do qua catalog truyen thong. Gid day, cong ty nay dtidc to chtic chat che hdn qua mang. 354

Khong ch! la giai tri Mpt ciia hang do choi thong thtidng co the trting bay vai chpc san p h a m ciia LEGO. Nhimg ciia hang tren mang co t d i gan mpt ngan san pham tir nhirng t u i ngoi cho t o i t r a m khong gian hiiy diet Deathstar t r i gia 300 dola. Ngu ban m u o n biet sp" khac biet giiia t h i trtiting tren mang va t h i trudng ban le truyen thong doi vdi san pham ciia LEGO, hay xem danh sach cac san

pham

hit. Chi cd m p t vai san p h a m la con trong kho, chang han n h u m d h i n h tau v u t r p trong p h i m Star

Wars

(Chien tranh giiia cac v i sao) t r i gia 140 dola va m p t tui to cac nguyen lieu v o l gia 43 dola. Da den luc dting lai de xem xet anh hudng ciia Cdi dudi ddi It nhat la 90% san p h a m ciia LEGO khong cd mat trong cac a i a hang ban le truyen thong, m a chi co trong catalog va tren mang, n d i ma nen k i n h te hpc ciia l u u kho va phan p h o i cd ve than thien h d n v o l rihirng san pham

ngach.

N h i n chung, n h t i n g p h a n

khong thupc ban le ciia nha k i n h doanh nay chiem t t i 10 den 15% doanh so ban hang nam t r i gia 1,1 t i dola ciia LEGO. Nhting chenh lech l p i nhuan t t i nhting san pham nay cao h d n nhting san p h a m dtipc ban qua cong ty Toys "R" Us, v i khong phai chia se l p i nhuan vdi nha ban le. V i cac ciia hang tren mang cd the dap Ung yeu cau ciia tat cd ngtidi h a m mp, t t i nhting dtia tre cho t d i nhting ngtidi dam me da trtidng thanh (chti khong chi la san chdi

thti cho cau be 9 tuoi), ma gia

ca tren mang cd the cao hdn, t t i nhting vien gach 1 dola cho t d i nhting do v | t trong p h i m Star Wars da m d ta d tren t r i gia 300 dola. 355

CAI BUOI DAI Cong viec can l a m tiep theo ciia LEGO la t h u hut sii t h a m gia cau lac bo Brickmaster ciia no v o l miic p h i thanh vien la 40 dola/nam. La hoi vien, ban se nhan duoc m o t t d tap chi day hon v d i rat nhieu d u an t y lam, nam bo dd chuyen biet de bay d ciia ra vao va mdt ve tham gia trien l a m LEGOland. Dd la each LEGO phan loai khach hang, t t i khach hang b i n h thtidng tdi khach hang dam me va LEGO cung t i m each vtiOt ra ngoai k h u d n k h d chat hep ciia chiec gia ban le ciia t h i trudng gidng nhau d d i v d i m o i loai khach hang. Sau dd, da den hie can nghiem tuc ve kha nang sang tao ciia ban. LEGO cd lich sti lau d d i trong viec cung cap cac cong cu tren mang de khuyen khich mua ban m d h i n h va cac d i i an p h d i hop san xuat khac. Nam 2000, d i i an "My Own Creation" (Sti sang tao ciia rieng toi) da dan den cupc t h i ltia chpn m d h i n h sang tao nhat ciia ngtidi s i i dung. Mo h i n h doat giai nhat la mpt xtidng 16 ren ma LEGO cap giay chiing nhan cho tac gia va m d i chao n h u la mpt bp dd quang cao. Sau do, d p an tren con dtia ra chtiong t r i n h LEGO Mosaic, cho phep ngtidi sii dung dtia nhting h i n h anh ma sau dd se dtipc chuyen thanh m d h i n h gach LEGO hai chieu len trang web va m p i ngtidi deu cd the tai xuong. Nam 2005, LEGO khai trtidng dp" an phdi hpp san xuat tham vpng nhat cho den nay - dd la Nha may LEGO. Nha may ao nay cho phep ban tai phan mem sang tao m d hinh rieng roi dtia len trang web ciia LEGO. Khoang m p t tuan sau, ban se nhan dtipc m p t hop do nghe cd h i n h anh m d h i n h ciia ban d ngoai bia, trong 356

Khong chi la giai tri do co tat ca cac loai gach dac biet va nhutig vat lieu niia. Dieu dac biet ly t h i i la moi ngudi co the mua bo dd nghe aia ban va tren thifc te, nhieu mo hinh rat dep do ngtidi sti dung sang tao ra da duoc bay ban. Hon 100 nghin mo hinh dang dtipc thiet ke theo each do, va mot so mo hinh xuat sac nhat con duoc dtia ra vol t t i each san pham chinh thtic ciia LEGO. LEGO tham chi con tra cho ngtidi sang tao m d t so tien ban quyen nhd. Tuy nhien, tat ca nhting dieu dd khong the l a m nen Nha may LEGO. San xuat hang loat theo yeu cau ciia khach hang la tuyet vol, nhutig k h i ban co 7 nghin vien gach vat heu v o l 75 mau (nghia la hoti ntia trieu kha nang co the), t h i v o l viec cho phep ngtidi sti dung cd toan quyen xay dung se dat ra thach thtic khien ngtidi dd b i qua tai. Do dd, LEGO da han che hia chon theo hai each. Thti nhat, m o i mo h i n h chi duoc xay diing bang mot loai gach, chang han n h t i "vat heu oto". T h t i hai, nhting vat heu nay nam san trong cac t u i da dtiOc goi ky vol so ltidng gach nhat diiih, nen ban se cd nhieu vat heu hdn so ban can. Neu ban khong t i n h toan can than, t h i mot chiec xe don gian von chi co gia 10 dola d ciia hang ban le, se d d i gia len t d i 100 dola d Nha may LEGO, ddn gian v i sti dung nhting t u i vat lieu nay khong hieu qua. May m a n la chiing ta van cd giai phap t i n h the. Nhting ngtidi d a m me LEGO tap hdp co sd d t i lieu liet ke cac loai t u i vat heu trong m o i bang pha mau va lap ttinh phan m e m giup ngtidi xay s i i dung nhting t i i i vat heu nay hieu qua hdn, t r a n h mua phai nhutig t u i vat 357

CAI DUOI DAI lieu ton kem chi de dung mot vien gach don le. Va LEGO da lam rat t6t viec khuyen khich giai phap nay. Nhung doi v d i hau het m o i ngudi (trong dd cd tdi), giai phap nay van rat khd va han che trong thuc hien, nen LEGO dang can nhac each thUc cai tien, bat dau bang nhung phan m e m thiet ke de sti dung. Tdi da h d i Michael McNaUy, nha quan ly cap cao ve quan he gitia cac nhan mac heu LEGO rang ong co thay sti ttiong dong ve each tiep can cua cac cong ty khac trong viec cung cap cho thi trudng

ngach va khuyen

khich san xuat thdng qua ngtidi tieu dung hay khong. That l y thti, ong da de cap ngay den trudng hop cua iTunes cua Apple. ITunes cho phep ban tai xuong nhting bai hat rieng re chti khong phai toan bo album. Ban cd the lap mdt danh sach bai hat yeu thich rieng cho m i n h va chia se v d i nhting ngtidi sti dung khac, dieu dd cung gidng n h t i viec ngtidi sti dung sang tao tren nhting vat lieu tieu chuan cua LEGO. McNally cho biet, "Nhting gi iTunes l a m duoc trong am nhac la nhting gi Nha may LEGO dang l a m cho nhting ngtidi me xay dung". Chao mting den Cdi dudi dai ciia nhting vien gach l a m bang chat deo.

SALESFORCE.COM Btidc vao nam 2005, Mark Benioff gap phai mot tinh the te nhi. Cong ty ciia ong, Salesforce.com da t i m each tiep can the gidi von d i rat nham chan - ban phan mem

358

Khong chi la giai tri cho ngtidi ban hang - theo each sang tao. Thay v i lam nhu" cac cong ty khac la cung cap mpt bp dia quan ly dau m o i cai dat tren may a i a cong ty mua, ong lai van hanh phan m e m tren he thong may chii ciia m i n h va mdi chao khach hang tra p h i dang ky de s i i dung tren mpt trinh duyet web tieu chuan. Ong da bien viec cung cap phan m e m thanh m p t dich vu, dac biet t h u hut sp quan t a m ciia cac doanh nghiep nho va vtia, von chang thich t h i i gi v o l viec p h u t tap la duy t r i phan mem ciia rieng hp. Salesforce.com lam an rat phat dat: tinh den nam 2005, cong ty da phat trien rat nhanh va t h u hut su quan t a m ciia cac cong ty phan m e m lem n h u Oracle va SAP, cac d o i t h i i nay o i n g bat tay nhau canh tranh v o l dich v u a i a ong nham ha guc Salesforce.com Nguyen tac t p ve thong thuong se la co gang phat trien manh h o n bang each b d sung ngay cang nhieu chUc nang cho san p h a m ciia Salesforce.com n h a m duong dau v o l cac ddi t h i i canh tranh Ion. Thuc su t h i do chinh la dieu ma thoat tien Benioff da lam. Nhung sau do, ong chpt nhan ra la co the lam theo each khac. Phuong phap cung cap phan m e m tren mang se cho phep hang t r a m nha thiet ke nho d nhting n o i co chi phi thap nhti A n Dp chang han den vol cac khach hang. Theo le thtidng t h i cac cong ty khong m u d n hpp tac vdi cac nha thiet ke nhd, v i sp rang phan m e m che tao ra se cd loi, it dtipc quan t a m va se khong the phat trien dtipc. Bang each giup nhirng ngtidi dang ky dich v u khong p h a i giai quyet nhting van de phtic tap n h t i cai 359

CAI DUOI DAI dat va bao t r i phan mem, thay vao do la cung cap phan m e m thong qua t r i n h duyet Web ni: xa, Benioff da tao nen m p t he thong ma nhutig nha thiet ke khac co the lam tuong tp. Ong da ting dung l y thuyet Cdi dudi ddi vao nganh k i n h doanh phan mem. Ly thuyet to ra rat p h u hop. Cung n h u trong cac nganh k i n h doanh khac, deu co p h a n dau va phan

dudi ciia p h a n mem, t r o n g do

Microsoft d m p t dau, con dau kia gom hang trieu nha lap t r i n h don le, nhieu ngudi trong so hp dang d A n Dp va Trung Quoc. GiUa hai dau dd la cong viec ciia vd so n h o m nho cac nha thiet ke, von co each tiep can hieu qua khach hang tren toan the gidi. Nhutig van chi la m d h i n h phan p h o i tap trung d phan dau: Su dpc quyen gan n h u tuyet d o i ciia Microsoft la t h i trudng cuoi ciing b i chi p h o i b d l cac san p h a m hit. Nhutig cung mong t p n h u trong nganh truyen thdng va giai tri, cd ba luc lupng dang tac dpng lam thay doi k i n h te hpc ciia nganh k i n h doanh phan mem. Chi phi lap trinh phan mem von da giam manh cung vol sti phd cap ciia may tinh ca nhan, lai sut giam nhanh hdn v i Internet da dtia hang trieu lap trinh vien tai nang nhting chi p h i re d A n Dp va Trung Quoc den v o l phan con lai ciia the gidi. Chi p h i van chuyen phan mem cung thap hon v i CD-ROM da nhtidtig chd cho phtiting phap tai phan mem. Chi p h i t i m phan m e m tot nhat cho nhting nhu cau cu the ciia ban cung chua bao gid thap den the n h d cd mang ludi ket ndi dong dao nhutig nhom ngtidi sti dung tren mang cd the cung dtia ra nhting 360

Khong chi la giai tri khuyen nghi (va ca su" ho tro") re h o n chi p h i cao phai tra cho cac nha t u van. Kha nang cung cap phan mem thong qua mpt t r i n h duyet web dupe van hanh n i xa ma khong anh huong gi t d i may t i n h ciia ban da giiip giam hon nua chi p h i - ca tren irate te va ca tam ly. Binh thuong, n h u cau d o i v o l cac san p h a m phan mem chuyen biet l u o n t o n tai, t t i nhting phan m e m dtipc chia se tren mang, den nhting phan m e m dung thti trtitic k h i mua. Nhting do thtidng khong phai la t h i trtiting ldn, chu yeu do nhting van de thtidng gap nhti n i l ro, sti phtic tap va nhting chuan muc ciia phan mem phai ttidng thich k h i chay tren may tinh ca nhan va phti hop v o l he thong van hanh. Mo hinh phan mem dtipc cai dat tren may chii da gpi m d kha nang giai quyet n h t i n g v a n de dd, bang each de nhting nha chuyen m o n x t i ly cac van de phtic tap va dung t r i n h duyet web n h t i m p t giao dien dong nhat cho ngtidi sti dung va t a m la chan d o i v o l he dieu hanh. Cuoi nam 2005, Salesforce la cong ty dau tien khai trtidng t h i trtiting phan m e m Cdi dudi ddi. Nhting nha lap t r i n h thupc ben t h t i ba cd the viet cac phan m e m ting dung chuyen biet (chang han n h t i tap trung vao kiem diem lai ket qua thiic hien hoac tuyen nhan vien). Phan m e m n a y se dtipc chay t r e n m a y c h i i ciia Salesforce, va hen ket v d i cac p h a n m e m khac ciia Salesforce. Ngtidi ta hy vpng hang tram, tham chi hang nghin lap t r i n h vien nhd h d n se dap ting tat ca cac yeu cau dac t h t i ciia k h a c h hang Salesforce, cho phep Salesforce tap t r u n g vao nhting n h u cau thdng dung 361

CAI BUOI DAI hdn. Noi each khac, Cdi dudi se giup ciing co Phan dau. Tinh den dau nam 2006, co hon 200 phan m e m ung dung dupe ban tren t h i trudng va Benioff khang dinh rang h i n h dang ciia dudng cong doanh so ban cd the d u doan trudc dupe. Ong cho b i l t : "Tdi tham chi rat ngd ngang. Do thuc su la m d h i n h hoan hao ciia Cdi duoi ddi. Het n h u trong sach vay!". SAP c i i n g n h a n h c h o n g d i theo each l a m ciia Salesforce, vdi chien luoc he thong tren mang ciia rieng m i n h va m o t vai cong ty nhd hon ciing theo dudi mo h i n h tuong tti. Tat ca cong thtic ciia m d h i n h Cdi duoi ddi thong thtidng deu dtidc ap dung. Nhirng cong ty n h t i vay tap hop nhting phan m e m chuyen biet trong he thdng ciia iriinh va cung cap co che loc thong t i n (tti danh muc san pham

hit den nhan xet ciia ngudi

sti dung). Dieu do gitip m p i ngtidi t t i t i n dich chuyen dan theo dtidng cong xuong nhting ting dung ciia thi trwdng ngach co the p h u hpp v d i yeu cau ciia hp hPn la nhting phan m e m cting nhac gidng het nhau vdn da chi p h d i t h i trudng ngay nay. Mo M n h nay da gan dau vdi dudi mdt each hoan hao. Con qua sdm de nhan xet ve tinh hieu qua ciia nhting t h i trudng phan m e m m d i nay, nhting r d rang dd la m i n h chting cho thay viec giam chi p h i k h i vtion den tM trwdng ngach cd the l a m thay ddi cupc choi nhP the nao. N h u Joe Kraus, CEO ciia JotSpot (mpt cong ty phan m e m khac d u d i n h ap dung chien ltidc k i n h doanh nay) da ndi: "Cho den ngay nay, sp" chti y mdi chi tap trung vao hang chuc t h i trudng ciia hang trieu 362

Khong chi la giai tri khach hang thay v i hang trieu t h i trudng cua hang chuc khach hang". Joe Kraus ciing nam trong sd luong ngtidi ngay cang tang dat n i e m t i n vao sti n d i len cua hang trieu t h i trudng do.

MANG TIM KIEM GOOGLE Thi trtidng quang cao truyen thdng la thi trudng cd dien va chay theo hit vol chi p h i cao nen ddi h d i phai tap trung vao n h o m khach hang va ngudi ban cd t h i phan ldn. Cach thtic hoat dpng ciia t h i trtidng nay la nha quang cao, v i d u n h t i tap doan General Motors (GM) thtidng cd ngan sach quang cao ldn. GM thanh lap m d t cong ty quang cao cd nhiem v u thiet ke m a u quang cao va sau dd, mdt cong ty truyen thdng se dua cac m a u quang cao dd len tivi, dai phat thanh, an pham i n va tren mang. Cting hie dd, cac phtiong tien truyen tai quang cao dd lai cd stic manh k i n h doanh quang cao rieng. Chiing ket n d i cac nha quang cao va khach hang bang cac phtidng tien quang cao. Neu m p i t h t i dien ra sudn se, hang trieu dola se dtipc chuyen t t i ngtidi nay sang ngtidi khac. Tat ca cong viec quang cao chi ddi hdi stic lao dpng va chi p h i danh cho c h i p m d i cong viec ma khong dtia vao b i t cti he thdng danh gia chuan nao. Do dd, phong each ban hang va m d i quan he ca nhan cd vai t r d then chot trong viec gianh dtipc hpp dong k i n h doanh. 363

CAl DUOI DAI Hau het cac muc quang cao, cho d u la trong cac Trang Vang hay tran chung ket bong chay Super Bowl, deu duoc ban thong qua dien thoai hoac qua chao hang. Chi co so i t 161 de nghi quang cao dupe cac cong ty chap nhan. Trong thdi gian gan day, nhting ngtidi ban quang cao khong chi tao quan he gan g u i v d i khach hang ma con dong vai tro cd van quang cao, thong bao cho ngtidi m u d n quang cao each thtic hieu qua trong sti dung phtiOng tien quang cao va nghi ra each tiep can mdi de dat dtidc muc dich quang cao. Cach lam nay ttiting ddi tot nhting do chi p h i ton kem nen ngtidi ban quang cao chi tap trung vao cac khach hang ldn, giau va cd tiem hfc. Noi each khac, each lam tren chi khuyen khich tang them Phan dau cua Cdi dudi ddi Gidng nhti trong tat ca cac t h i trtidng khac ma chung ta vtia nghien ctiu, phan dau cua do t h i chi chiem phan rat nhd trong t h i trtidng tiem nang. Nhting do chi p h i quang cao theo each truyen thdng qua cao nen nhting ngtidi cd i t tiem hfc h o n budc phai sti dung phtiOng tien cua rieng ho: goi dien, t i l san xuat va dtia cac quang cao ciia ho tren cac t d bao dia phtiOng. Dd la phtidng phap quang cao chii yeu ciia the ky trtitic. Tuy nhien, vao nam 2001, trang mang t i m kiem Google, phtiOng tien t i m k i e m nhanh nhat the gidi luc dd m d i t r o n 2 m d i , da bat dau dtia ra mot mo hinh lcinh doanh phu hop hon. Do each t i m Idem ciia Google hoan toan m d i nen nd ciing dtia ra each quang cao hoan toan m d i . Hoc theo m d h i n h do Bill Gross, mot nha k i n h doanh da tao ra Overture, Google da sang tao 364

Khong chi la giai tri ra m o t m o h i n h ma sau nay t r d thanh cong cu quang cao Cdi dudi ddi co hieu qua nhat ma the gidi n i n g chiing kien. Dieu ma Google nhan ra la neu nd giam dupe phan ldn chi p h i mua va ban quang cao, t h i nd se tang dupe dang ke so lupng ngudi m u o n m u a va ban quang cao. Phan m e m may t i n h se giai quyet co ban van de tren, do do l a m giam chi p h i tham gia va tham nhap t h i trudng. Md hinh quang cao ciia Google co ba dac tinh Cdi dudi ddi quan trpng. ThU nhat, nd dupe xay dung tren each tim kiem n i khoa chti khong phai la cac hinh anh nhti chiing ta van thay, ma so ltipng t t i va cum tii t h i qua la vd tan. T i m n i nao ciing giong nhau - xem bieu do t i m Idem (trong khoang nam 2001) do Joe Kraus, ngtidi sang lap ra trang mang t i m kiem Excite, cung cap: Cac tinh tim kigfm tai Excite (khoang nam 2001)

100 Thur tp tim kiem

365

1,000

10,000,000

CAI DUOI DAI Mudi t i i khoa dupe t i m nhieu nhat chi chiem 3% tong so t i m kiem. Phan con lai co hang chuc trieu t i i khoa. Dieu Google nhan ra la m o i t i i khoa t i m kiem la mot CO hpi quang cao duy nhat: co den hang chpc trieu each bieu hien y d i n h va sd thich, m o i y d m h hay sd thich cd the dupe chuyen thanh m p t CO hoi quang cao ldn neu cac quang cao dupe xac chrih chinh xac bang thuat toan PageRank nhti nhiing thuat ngti trong cpng cu t i m kiem ciia Google. Nhting lam each nao de ban hang chpc trieu quang cao khac nhau? Chi cd mot cau tra Idi, dd la hay de cho phan m e m may tinh giai quyet. Do dd, ky thuat Cdi dudi ddi t h t i hai ciia Google la ha dang ke chi phi tiep can t h i trtidng. Ky thuat nay dtipc xay diing theo mo h i n h t t i dpng dPn gian va rat i t t o n kem. Bat cti ai ciing cd the t r d thanh nha quang cao ciia Google bang each mua mpt tti khoa trong cong doan dau gia t p dpng vdi gia k h d i diem chi la 0,05 dola cho m p t lan nhan chupt. Mo h i n h t i i dpng k h o n g chi gitip Google va nha quang cao ha chi phi, ma con gitip viec quang cao hieu qua hon. Google cung cap cong cp de cac nha quang cao t t i thiet ke va t h t i nghiem de tao ra mau quang cao hieu qua nhat (khach hang t i m thay va truy cap vao dia chi ciia nha quang cao). Khong i t nha quang cao co t i n h "van veo" n i khoa va nhai quang cao de dat dtipc mpc dich. Ndi chung, khong ai hieu cong viec kinh doanh bang hp. Tac dpng ciia m d h i n h nay la Google da tao ra nhieu 366

Khong ch? la giai tri quang cao ti phan sau ciia Cdi dudi hon bat cti cong ty nao. Ngay nay, co hang nghin nha quang cao nho chtia bao g i d quang cao d bat cti dau da s i i dung Google. Bdl v i m d h i n h ciia Google la t t i dpng nen tiu the ve dien quang cao ldn, chi p h i re va kha nang thay ddi, cai thien mau quang cao de dang khien cho cac nha quang cao d d x d s i i dung t h i trudng m d i nay. Hp khong can cac m d i quan he, khong can nhan vien Google phai hen he. Ket qua la ho can it nhan vien hon va xuat hien m o t m d h i n h ma quang cao d phan

dudi

cung hieu qua n h u d phan dau ciia dd t h i . ThU ba, Google tao dieu kien tot cho cac nha quan tri mang. Trudc day, chi cd hai phuong phap quang cao chinh d d i v d i cac nha quan t r j mang. Ho hoac la thue luc luong ban quang cao de t h u hut khach hang, hoac la tham gia vao m o t mang ludi va phai tra chi phi t t i cao xuong thap. Giai phap ma Google dtia ra la cong nghe t i m k i e m dtidc sti dung de t i m quang cao phu hop ddi vdi m o t t t i khoa cung cd the dtia quang cao len d j a chi ciia ben lien quan t h t i ba. Ngay nay, bat ke la ban t r u y cap vao trang mang ciia Thdi bdo New York hay viet blog, ban cd the dtia vai dong theo ma HTML tren d j a chi ciia ban va nd se hien tren quang cao Google - bat ke n d i dung nao ma ban cung cap. Dieu nay cung dien ra n i dong: khong can bat cti sU cho phep hay cuoc dien thoai nao. M o i k h i mau quang cao dd dtipc t r u y cap, ngtidi quang cao phai tra tien cho Google va Google chuyen m o t phan tien cho ban. 367

CAl DUOI DAI Google khong quan tam ban la nha quang cao chuyen nghiep hay nghiep du, hay n o i dung ban dua len phong p h u hay te nhat. Neu quang cao cua ban khong co hieu qua, Google se t u dong thay the bang quang cao khac. Bdi v i cac trang mang khong khien Google phai tang chi p h i nen ke ca nhirng quang cao vo bo, khong co ai truy cap cung co the t o n tai. "Chi p h i co h o i " se do nha quan t r i mang ganh chiu. Dieu nay tao ra each thtic rat tot de mo rpng t h i trudng 1

quang cao Cdi dudi ddi bao gom hang tram ngan blog. Tai cupc hpp cd' dong dau tien cua Google, CEO Eric Schmidt giai thich tai sao ong gpi nhiem v u ciia Google la "Phuc v u Cdi dudi d d f . Ong bat dau bang viec dtia ra m p t bieu do vdi true tung la dola va true hoanh la con ngtidi. Tap doan WalMart dan dau. Phan cu6i ciia Dudi la con so 6 trieu. Schmidt giai thich: Chung toi danh gia thi tnidng nam ngoai va tp hoi: "Chiing toi phai lam gi?" Neu ban danh gia mpt nha quang cao, ban se thay ho se la nhiing cong ty ldn nhat tren the gidi nhu Wal-Mart va cac cong ty nho nhat the gidi la cac ca nhan. Chiing toi goi do la Cdi dudi ddi Nhieu ngtidi da noi ve nd - dd la mpt y tudng thu vi. Chung toi danh gia cao dieu nay va cho rang "Chiing ta da lam tot cho den giai doan hien nay d phan gitia - dd la cac cong ty dieu hanh tot co quy md vtia. Nhung con cac cong ty rat ldn ntia, lieu chiing ta co lam tot?" Do dd, nam ngoai chiing tdi da dua ra nhieu cong cu phu hpp cho tat cac cac nha quang cao ldn 368

Khong chi la giai tri sii diang clich vu cua chung ta trong tat cat cac chi nhanh aia hp de tao ra nhieu quang cao bdi vi trong mo hinh aia chiing toi, quang cao tao ra kha nang d u doan, tao ra su hoi tu, va cu the tiep tuc. Con cac ca nhan, nhung doanh nghiep nho t h i sao? Nhung cong ty-mpt ngudi, cong ty-hai ngudi, cong tyba ngudi n h u Joe va Bob t h i sao? Chiing t d i da xay dung mdt loat cong cu nhd, t u ddng cho phep hp t u dpng sii dung dich vu nay. Bang each dd, chiing tdi di theo ca hai hudng. Di ve phia sau a i a do thi bang cong cu t u ddng, chiing tdi nham vao cac nha quang cao d phia dudi muc chuan theo each quang cao truyen thong. Di ve phia trudc ciia do thi, chiing tdi nham vao doanh nghiep rat ldn va chua bao gid cd cd hdi tiep can cac dich vu tren mang. Schmidt sau dd giai thich vdi tdi viec hang trieu khach hang cd quy m d vtia va n h d tao ra t h i trtidng quang cao khong lo Cdi dudi ddi n h t i the nao: Dieu ngac nhien ve Cdi dudi ddi lai la Phan dudi cd dp dai nhti the nao va con cd bao nhieu doanh nghiep chtia the quang cao theo each truyen thong. Nhan thtic rang cac doanh nghiep n h u ciia chung tdi cd the tao ra ddng gdp Pareto luon am anh tdi hon bat cti 1

ai. Dieu nay da dtipc cac nha khoa hpc chi ra t t i lau, nhting khong dtipc chti y. Khi danh gia ve cong viec ciia chiing tdi, chiing t d i ket luan rang m i n h da lam tot doi v d i khach hang d phan gitia. Sau k h i doc bai

Xem chii thich d chuong 9, trang 277. 369

CAI DUOI DAl bao tren tap chi Wired, chiing toi quan sat Phan dudi va t u hoi: "Chiing ta phai khai thac co hoi nay nhu the nao?" Hay nhin vao do thi Pareto trong thuong mai quoc te tinh theo loi nhuan. D i n dau la tap doan Wal-Mart. Vay dung cuoi la doanh nghiep nao? Hoa ra do la mpt ngudi ban ro of An Do chuyen ban cac san pham t u lam. Phan duoi ciia do thi gom khoang 1 t i ngudi, ctiinh la GDP ciia the gidi. Hay bat dau t t i phan cuoi dd t h i va di ngupc len den k h i ban gap ngudi cd the tiep can Internet. Hp la nhung ngtidi dtipc giao dpc, la nhung doanh nghiep nhd va muon quang cao san pham ciia hp. Sau dd chung tdi tti hdi: "Md hinh ciia chiing tdi cd the cd lpi gi doi vol nhting ngudi nay trong viec nang cao loi nhuan ciia ho?" Cau tra ltil la neu chiing ta tao dieu kien cho ho md rpng thi trudng ra ben ngoai khu lang ciia ho, hp se tiep can thi trtidng ldn hon, cd nhieu dat hang hon, gia ca canh tranh hon... Cd rat nhieu ly do tai sao dieu nay dien ra cham, chii yeu la do co sd ha tang. Cd the ndi chiing ta da bd qua 90% doanh nghiep, ttiotig duong 100 trieu doanh nhan. Con so tren ldn den mtic neu ban cat di phan ldn ciia mieng banh thi dd van la mdt thi trudng khong lo. Lpi nhuan hang nam ciia Google hien nay la hon 5 ti ddla/nam va tang len gap ddi sau m o i chin thang. Mac dti phan l d n lpi nhuan xuat phat t t i phan trtitic ciia do t h j song phan ldn khach hang lai d phan dudi, dieu dd cho thay phan ldn tang trtidng trong thdi gian tdi se den t t i phan dudi. Va Google t h i chi vtia m d i bat dau.

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Khong chi la giai tri Mot trong iihung dieu t h i i v i ve Google la no dang khai thac Cdi dudi ddi theo bao nhieu each. N h u da trinh bay d phan trudc, Google la ngudi khdng i d ve quang cao, tao ra t h i trudng v d i so luong l d n cac nha quang cao va cac trang mang tai quang cao. NhUng Google con ndi tieng h o n vdi t u each la ngudi khdng id v l thdng tin va each nd sang tao ra ky thuat thoat khdi md h i n h cti. Mdt trong nhting van de ma he dieu hanh iTunes ciia may nghe nhac Apple gap phai la nd ttiong d d i han che ve the loai am nhac. Dieu tuong t t i cung xay ra trong l i n h vpc thdng t i n - thdng t i n co the d u d i dang tti ngti, nhting cung cd the bieu hieu trong nhirng dang khac. Google nhan ra rang cac dang khac nhau ddi h o i dinh dang khac nhau. Neu t i m kiem mot dia diem, ban p b i i t i m mpt ban dd. Neu t i m kiem h i n h anh, ban phai tim mpt d m h dang anh. Neu t i m kiem mpt doan video, cd the ban m u d n t i m m p t clip. Md h i n h cti khdng the giai quyet cac van de tren. Google dtia ra cac the loai t i m kiem khac nhau: Google Local (dia diem), Google Scholar News (cac cong t r i n h nghien ctiu hpc thuat), Google Maps (ban dd), Google Product Search (san pham), Google News ( t i n ttic), Google Book Search (sach), Google Video (bang hinh)... Hien nay, v d i viec Yahoo!, Microsoft va cac cong ty khac theo chan Google, t h i trtidng t i m k i e m se dtipc phan thanh cac t h i trtidng n h d h d n ttiy theo n h u cau khac nhau. Moi san pham t i m kiem ciia Google cd d m h dang rieng va lay ra t t i kho d t i lieu l d n cho phep t i m 371

CAI DUOI DAI thay ket qua htiu ich va p h u hop. Noi each khac, no t u dieu chinh cac lenh t i m kiem de dua lai ket qua phu hop nhat doi vol tting each the hien. Y nghia ciia dieu nay la neu ban biet dtiOc ban dang m u o n t i m k i ยง m dieu gi va neu ban sii dung phuong tien loc va co t i n h phan loai, ban se t i m duoc ket qua tot hon so vol each t i m thong thudng. Ket qua cang n h u y, con ngudi cang t i m each khai thac, cang lam cho Cdi duoi ddi t r d nen dai hon.

372

QUY LUAT CAI DUOI D A I LAM THE" NAO Dii TAO RA M0T THIEN DUONG DANH CHO KHACH HANG

Bi mat de tao ra m o t the gioi k i n h doanh Cdi dudi ddi thinh vtiting co the dtiOc torn tat bang hai m £ n h lenh: 1. Hay giup ngtidi tieu dung tiep can tat ca m o i san pham. 2. Hay gitip t o i t i m ra bat cti t h t i gi ma t o i m u o n . M£nh l£nh thti nhat noi de hon lam. Chi co hdn mot chuc bo p h i m trong tong so 6000 bo p h i m tai Lien hoan p l i i m Sundance thtidng nien la dtiOc t r i n h chieu rnien p h i , hau het so con lai khdng dtidc phep chieu ngoai lien hoan b d i v i ban quyen am nhac khdng cho phep dieu dd. Dieu dd ciing dung d o i v d i hau het chtidng t r i n h tivi tren mang: viec giai quyet ban quyen DVD va ban quyen am nhac qua t o n kem.

373

CAI DUOI DAI Cac quyen ttiong ruf o i n g lam cho viec cong bo rpng rai am nhac co dien va games t r d nen k h d khan va be tac. Chi den k h i chiing ta t i m dupe each xda ban quyen ciia tat ca ban nhac va tat ca phan quy d i n h tren catalog mpt each khdng suy nghi, t u ddng va trong tat ca cac nganh cong nghiep t h i nhting rao can ve luat phap m d i khdng gay t r d ngai doi v d i su l d n manh ciia Cdi dudi

ddi.

Dieu can thiet t h t i hai la tang toe dp. Ap dung cac bp lpc ket hpp va danh gia ciia khach hang, cac trang mang sii dung pham m e m thdng m i n h dang dtia ra gpi y doi v d i khach hang de l a m cho Cdi dudi dai hon. Dieu nay khac v d i each tung hting hay mo hinh vtia dap ting n h u cau chung, vtia dap ting t h i hieu ca nhan. Phtiong phap lanh doanh Cdi dudi ddi coi tat ca khach hang la nhting ca nhan, dap ting n h u cau ciia tat ca khach hang thay v i chi tap t r u n g vao n h o m khach hang ldn. Trong nganh giai tri, su" gdi y cd hieu qua l d n trong viec quang ba san pham, cho phep cac bp p h i m von it dtipc biet den va cac ddng nhac ngoai ddng chii ltiu t i m dtipc ngtidi thtidng thtic. Doi v d i khach hang, each lpa chpn dtipc don gian hda dua tren mpt gpi y tot se lam tang t i n h k h a m pha va khoi lai niem dam me doi vdi am nhac va p h i m anh, gitip tao ra t h i trtidng giai t r i rpng l d n hon. (Trung binh, m o i khach hang ciia Netflix thue bay dia DVD m o i thang, cao gap ba lan b i n h thtidng). Lpi ich cpng htidng ve van hoa la tao ra sti da dang hon, l a m dao ngtipc tac dpng dpa tren 374

Quy luat cai duoi dai thuong hieu cua ca m p t the k y gap kho khan trong phat hanh va dat dau cham het cho sp thong t r i cua 1

van hoa hit. Bay gid ban da co cai n h i n tong the, sau day la chin quy tac de thanh cong trong k y nguyen Cdi dudi ddi:

GIAM CHI PHI Quy tac 1: Tang... hay giam kho hang Nhirng

ngon lUa thap sang

con dudng

mon (Gop

gio thanh bao). Trudc day, cac nha kho ldn, tap trung da dat dupe hieu qua cao t r o n g mo h i n h giao hang theo don dat hang qua dudng b u u dien. Ngay nay, cac bp phan p h u trach k i n h doanh tren mang ciia cac tap doan Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Target va n h i e u tap doan khac dang sii dung cac mang l u d i nha kho hien co ciia cac tap doan de dua ra so lupng hang hda l d n hon trong kho ciia rieng hp rat rihieu, bdi v i mang ludi hang hda tap t r u n g tao ra hiÂŁu qua h o n cac kho chUa hang rieng le. Nham dua ra rihieu san p h a m hon, cac cong ty n h u Amazon da m d rpng "kho hang ao" - tUc la hang hda thuc te dupe dat tai cac nha kho ciia cac doi tac nhutig dupe t r u n g bay va b a n t r e n dia chi cua A m a z o n . Chtidng t r i n h Marketplace ciia A m a z o n dang lien ket cac loai hang hoa ciia hang nghin nha ban hang nhd. Chi p h i ciia Amazon: bang 0.

375

CAI DUOI DAl Kho hang so - nhif iTunes - la each l a m co chi p h i it nhat. Chiing ta da chiing kien hieu qua ciia qua trinh chuyen d o i tir viec chuyen chd bang tau cac dia rihtia, den viec so hoa cac san pham am nhac. Dieu nay se sdm xay ra trong nganh dien anh, games video va games tivi. Da qua thdi chi co t i n nic ciia bao giay, phat thanh tren mang t h i dang thach thiic nganh phat thanh truyen thong va ai biet dude la ban dang doc cuon sach nay tren mpt man hinh nao do? Loai bd han che ciia hang hoa vat the hay nhiing can t r d ciia dai tan trong cong nghe truyen phat la each hviu hieu de giam chi phi, tao ra m p t loai thj truong

ngach

hoan

toan m d i . Quy tac 2: Tao dieu kien de khach hang lam viec Md h i n h "San xuat ngang hang" da tao ra eBay, Wikipedia, Craigslist, MySpace, va da cung cap cho Netflix hang t r a m nghin Idi gidi thieu pliim. Trong k h i dd, dich v u n i ddng cho phep Google ban quang cao va Skype dang ky 60 trieu ngudi diing trong 2 nam n i d i . Ca hai v i d u tren cho thay khach hang da san sang lam viec cho cac tap doan mdt so cong viec ma dang ra hq phai tra tien. Day khdng phai la thue lam ben ngoai, ma la "thue cong chiing lam". Lpi ich ciia viec tren khdng chi d khia canh k i n h te ma con d cho khach hang co the lam cong viec tot hon. Ldi gidi thieu do khach hang tai len mang thudng day d i i thdng tin, sue tich va quan trpng hPn la dupe nhting khach hang khac t i n nhiem. Ve td'ng the, khach hang 376

Quy luยงt cai duoi dai khong b i han che ve thoi gian va cong siic; chi co each thiic "san xuat ngang hang" la co kha nang m d rdng toi eta Cdi duoi ddi. Doi vol dich v u t u dong, cong viec dUOc nhiing ngudi quan tam nhat den van de nay thuc hien va chi nhting ngtidi nay biet hp m u o n gi.

TU DUY VE THI TRUONG NGACH Quy tac 3: Mpt each phan phoi la khdng du Mpt so khach hang cd y thich d i mua sam tai ciia hang. Mpt so muon mua hang tren mang. Mpt so muon tim hieu tren mang va mua tai ctia hang. Mpt so m u o n mua ngay, so khac lai m u o n chti. Mpt so mua d ctia hang gan, so khac mua ctia hang xa. Mpt so san pham cd nhu cau tap trung, so khac cd n h u cau rai rac. Neu ban chi tap trung den m p t loai khach hang, ban se cd nguy cd de mat cac n h o m khach hang khac. Nghe cd ve giong n h t i chung ta dang d trong the gidi sieu vat ly, nhting t h i trtidng Cdi dudi ddi se l a m bien ddi thdi gian va khdng gian. Nd se khdng b i han che bdi yeu td dja ly hay thdi gian, sd thich cua con ngtidi. Lpi the cua iTunes chu yeu la do trang mpng nay cd the tai nhieu san p h a m va phuc vu 24/7. Ngay nay, b a n cd the x e m CSI t r e n t i v i , bang h i n h theo yeu cau, t a i nhac iTunes, DVD (mua hay thue), va h i n h k y thuat sd va x e m bang bat cti phtiOng t i e n nao, t t i m a n h i n h t i n h the l o n g hay Sony PSP. Cung n h t i vay v d i cac chtidng t r i n h phat thanh, ban cd the 377

CAI BUOI DAl thu dtipc qua song phat thanh mat dat (true tiep hay phat lai), phat thanh ve t i n h , qua Web, t a i len mang va neu m u o n la qua t h u dien n i . Su da dang cac kenh t r u y e n thong tao dieu kien khai thac t o i da t h i t r u d n g nay. Quy tac 4: Mot san pham la chua du Ngay trudc chi cd m o t each de mua nhac la mua album CD (nhung chi ban dtipc so luong CD rat it, den n6i m o t so nghe si san sang cho khdng). Bay gid hay xem su lUa chpn tren mang: album, ca khuc don le, nhac chuong, doan nhac mien p h i 30 giay, nhac hinh, nhac remix, doan nhac remix cua ai do, nghe true tiep hay tai xuong, vol nhieu the loai va mUc dp khac nhau. Umair Haque gpi do la "Sp phan nhd san pham". Cang ngay, chien lupc gianh chien thang cang nham chia n p i dung thanh cac p h a n n h d de khach hang thudng thUc m o i bp phan theo each rieng cua hp, ciing n h u pha tron vol npi dung khac de tao ra dieu mdi me. Bao chi ciing b i phan nhd thanh cac bai bao rieng le, sau dd cac bai bao nay dupe lien ket vdi nhau bdi mpt trang mang chuyen biet hon de tao ra mpt san pham khac, cd tinh tap trung hon t t i cac nguon khac nhau cac blogger dong vai t r d n h t i mpt DJ, pha t r o n thong t i n de tao ra nhting n p i dung m d i . Trtidc day, chiing ta da chting kien dieu tticfng t t i trong qua t r i n h phan tach nhan hieu va san sap - hang chuc loai ntitic sot m i spaghetti t r d n v d i nhau de tao

378

Quy luat cai duoi dai ra huong v i doc dao. Gid day, hien tupng nay xuat hien 6" m o i noi, tU cac nhan vat va dp kho ctia games video (tao ra games cua rieng ban) den viec ban each nau mpt m o n an trong mpt lan nau an. Moi sp ket hpp n h u vay sU dung mang ludi phan p h o i khac nhau t d i m o i khach hang khac nhau. Mdt phuc v u mpt, nhieu phuc vu nhieu. Quy tac 5: Mot muc gia la chua du Mpt trong nhUng nguyen ly dupe biet den rdng rai nhat trong k i n h te hpc v i m d la sUc manh ctia sp l i n h hoat ve gia. NhUng ngudi khac nhau mong m u o n tra gia khac nhau v i nhUng ly do khac nhau, n h u hp cd bao nhieu tien va cd bao nhieu thdi gian. Tuy nhien, cung giong n h u ly do dua ra m d t loai san p h a m trong thi trudng truyen thong, thudng cung cd ly do phai dua ra mpt gia, hay it nhat la m p t gia trong cung m p t thdi gian. Nhung trong t h i trudng cd nhieu san pham, viec dmh gia linh hoat la m p t ky thuat co hieu qua de t o i da hda gia t r i ciia san p h a m va quy m d t h i trudng. Vi dp, eBay dua ra h i n h thUc dau gia (thudng gia thap hon nhung s u phien toai va dp khdng chac chan cao hdn) hay "Mua ngay" (gia cao hon). Ngay ca iTunes, von trudc day dua ra m p t gia cung nhac la 0,99 d o l a / san pham, se giam gia neu ban mua cac bai hat trong cung m p t album. Rhapsody t h a m chi con d i xa hon, dua ra gia t h t i nghiem tU 0,79 dola den 0,49 dola va nhan thay rang giam gia m p t nUa se ban dupe san p h a m gap ba lain. 379

CAI DUOI DAI Doi vol san pham am nhac hay bat cu san pham nao khac k h i chi p h i san xuat va phan p h o i giam dan ve 0, mo h i n h k i n h doanh tot nhat la dua ra gia ca linh hoat. Cac nha ban le co the nang gia doi v d i cac mat hang dupe Ua thich nhat va giam gia d o i v o l cac san pham i t hit hon. Tai sao dieu nay chUa dien ra? Bdi v i viec dua ra gia khoang 0,7 ddla/bai hat chti yeu la de tranh "xung dpt" vol viec ban dia CD am nhac van dupe coi la tao ra l p i nhuan ldn. Mpt ngay nao dd, viec dmh gia se t r d nen linh hoat hon, cho phep cac nha ban le t h u hut khach hang d phan cuoi ctia Cdi dudi.

M A T KIEM SOAT Quy tac 6: Chia se thdng tin Su khac nhau giUa m d t gia chUa day cac san pham giong nhau va mpt kho san pham "xep loai dua tren tieu chuan ban chay" chinh la thdng t i n . Trong mpt trudng hpp, ciia hang biet san pham nao ban chay nhat nhung khong n d i v d i khach hang. 6" trudng hpp khac, hp n o i v d i khach hang. Dieu nay cung dung v d i viec "phan loai theo gia ca", "phan loai theo Idi gidi thieu" va "phan loai theo nha san xuat". Tat ca thdng t i n tren deu de t i m , van de la l a m the nao de chia se cd hieu qua nhat v d i khach hang. Cang nhieu thdng t i n cang tot, nhung thdng t i n chi nen dua ra de giup hia chpn tot h o n chU khdng phai de gay nham lan.

380

Quy luat cai duoi dai Tuong tu", thong t i n ve viec mua hang k h i chuyen thanh goi y cho khach hang co the la m o t cong cu quang cao manh. Thong t i n co chieu sau ve san pham, n i gioi thieu den cac chi so, co the tra 161 cac cau h o i ma neu khong duoc giai dap se khien khach hang n i choi mua. Viec giai thich tai sao mot khach hang duoc cung cap m o t loat goi y se l a m tang niem t i n doi v o l he thong va giup khach hang sii dung no hieu qua hon. SU minh bach co the tao ra niem t i n ma khong ton mpt xu nao. Quy tac 7: Hay nghT "va", dung nghT "hoac" Mpt trong nhUng bieu hien a i a loi t u duy ve su khan hiem la gia thiet cho rang t h i trudng co tinh dupc/mat. Noi theo each khac, do la m p t sai l a m cho rang tat cat mpi thU dupe lua chpn hoac la co, hoac la khong. Dua ra mau san pham nay hoac dua ra mau san pham kia. Ban mau sac nay hoac ban mau sac kia. Con tren gia ban hang hoac cac kenh truyen hinh, cU t u nhien ma sinh ra t i n h trang chi co mpt san pham cho m p t v i t r i . Nhung v o l nhUng t h i trudng cd t i e m nang vd tan t h i chien lupc diing dan la l u o n phai dua ra tat ca cac san pham Van de dat ra d o i v o l su hia chpn la nd ddi h d i phai phan bi?t. Nhung qua t r i n h phan biet lai d d i h o i t h d i gian, n g u o n luc va k h a nang suy doan. A i do p h a i quyet d j n h dua t r e n m d t tieu chuan nao dd, de thay thU dupe lua chpn cd the tot h o n thU khac. Dieu nay

381

CAl DUOI DAI co the dung d cap v i mo, nhung thudng khdng dung d cap v i m d . Hay xem xet hien tudng "quay lai ni: dau" doi v d i cac dia DVD. Mac d i i hau het m o i ngudi thich loai dia co ket thiic b i n h thudng nhung luon cd ngudi thich dia quay lai n i dau k h i ket thuc. Gid day, ngudi ta cd the cd ca hai hia chpn. Md rong ra viec lua chon ngon ngU, kieu man hinh chuan hay man hinh rdng va tham chi cac the loai p h i m khac nhau vol nhieu mUc xep loai (PG, PG-13, R, khdng kiem duyet ) - tat ca cac lua chon 1

deu duoc khach hang nao do sii dung, mac du cd nhiing su lua chon chi thu duoc thieu so khach hang. Tat ca nhung "su hia chon phu" dd cd duoc la do kha nang l u u t n i l d n ciia ciia DVD, cho phep cac dao dien "phung p h i " d' dia v d i n o i dung v o n khdng bao gid co trong cac dia truyen thong, n h u kieu man anh nha hat hay kieu bang video. Dieu nay cung dung doi vol t h i trudng so tren mang, n o i ma viec giam gia va tang t n i luong bao dam rang d u ban m u o n bat cU dung luong nao, ban se cd va cung v d i thdi gian se co mien p h i . Kha nang l u u t n i cang l d n t h i ban cang it phai phan biet trong k h i sii dung. "Va" la quyet dmh de hdn "hoac" rat nhieu. Mpt so tii viet tat do Hiep hpi dien anh My quy dinh cho cac doi tupng khan gia, chu yeu la gidi han vdi tre em doi vol cac phim co canh bao luc, noi tuc, sii dung ma tuy va tinh due: PG (Parental Guidance) - phim tre em co the xem vdi sU chi dan ciia cha me; PG-13 - tre em dudi 13 tudi khong dupe xem; R (Restricted) - gidi han tre em, chi dupe xem neu ngudi ldn cho phep.

382

Quy lu?t cai duoi dai Quy luat 8: Tin tudng thj truong lam viec giup ban Trong t h i trudng khan hiem, ban phai t i n h xem se ban cai gi. Trong t h i trirdng du" thiia, ban chi can diia ra san p h a m va chd ddi t h i trirdng liia chon. Sir khac nhau giira "lpc trudc" va "lpc sau" la viec suy doan v d i viec Udc tinh, va Udc t i n h t h i chinh xac hon suy doan nhieu. T h i trudng tren mang se khdng co gia t r i neu khong cd duoc kha nang Udc t i n h tuyet v d i ciia dam ddng. Bdi v i ho cd nhieu thdng t i n nen se tuong d o i thuan l o i trong so sanh hang hda va truyen ba sp lua chpn ciia m i n h . Chang han, cac dung cu lpc ket hpp la W n h thUc quang cao san pham dua tren t h i trudng. Xep loai theo mUc dp Ua chupng la t i n hieu khac ciia t h i trudng, dupe khuech dai b d i hang loat phan h d i truyen mieng. Sp xep loai phan anh quan diem chung, dupe lupng hda de tao dieu kien cho viec so sanh va phan loai cac san pham de dang hern. Tat ca cac cong cu nay cd the tao ra sU da dang cd y nghia ddi vdi khach hang ma khdng cd nha ban le nao can phai suy doan xem san p h a m nao se ban chay. Bai hpc: Diing suy doan; Hay Udc tinh va hanh dpng. Quy tac 9: Hieu rd sue manh ciia tu do TU do la tieu cue v i nd gay ra t i n h trang an cap ban quyen va cac l i i n h thUc khac l a m mat gia t r i ciia san pham. Tuy nhien, m p t trong nhung dac d i e m quan trpng ciia t h i trudng sd la nd cho phep sU tU do, b d i v i

383

CAI DUOI DAl chi p h i gan n h u bang khong nen gia ca cung co the gan bang khong. Thuc te da t o n tai n h i f n g h i n h thtic k i n h doanh n h u the tren mang, n h u Skype va Yahoo! Mail. NhUng trang mang nay cho phep ngudi sU dung dung hop t h u mien phi, sau dd thuyet phuc ho nang cap hop t h u bang each tra tien de nhan duoc "uu dai" la horn t h u co chat lupng va hinh thUc tot hon. Do dich vu so rat re nen so khach hang dung mien p h i hau nhu khdng gay t o n k e m bao nhieu cho cong ty de ho bien m d t phan rat nho trong sd khach hang nay thanh nhUng khach hang tra tien. Vi du, cac doan clip 30 giay, doan hinh anh gidi thieu dupe dua len mang b d l v i chi p h i rdt thap. Cac nha san xuat games thudng tang ngudi choi m d t sd phan demo, sau dd neu thich, hp se phai dang ky de chPi mUc tiep theo. Nam 2005, tap doan Universal dua len mang m i i n p h i m d t doan clip dai 9 phut ctia bp p h i m Serenity

(mpt bp p h i m khoa hpc vien tudng). Tai sao

lai n h u vay? Bdl v i tap doan nay co the l a m dupe dieu dd do chi p h i cua viec dua len mang gan 10% thdi lupng ctia m p t bp p h i m hau n h u khdng dang ke so v o l gia t r i quang ba ctia viec dan dp mpt khach hang va dua ra m p t cau chuyen hap dan va chd anh ta den rap chieu p h i m . Hau het tivi hien nay la mien p h i va dung t h u nhap tU quang cao de b u lai. Tuy nhien, cac mang van t i m each t h u tien, mac d u chi p h i san xuat do cong ty truyen thong tra va chi p h i dua len mang thap. Tai sao

384

Quy luat cai duoi dai chiing ta khong cung cap m i i n phi, chieu n i dau den cuoi (chii khong phai la ngat giiia chiing) r o i quang cao hoac t i m them khan gia de quang cao san pham? Suy cho ciing, trong t h i truong d u thUa co tinh canh tranh, gia ca thudng cd x u hudng dua tren chi p h i . Nhd cd sUc manh ciia k i n h te hpc ky thuat so, chi p h i lai dang giam xudng.

385

CAl DUOI D A l

M A R K E T I N G

LAM THfi NAO BE* BAN CAC MAT HANG VON KHO BAN

Vao dau mua xuan nam 2006, mpt n h o m nhan vien lap ke hoach cua cong ty quang cao Campbell-Ewald d vung ngoai 6 Warren thupc thanh pho Detroit da xem mot doan quang cao tuong tac tren mang rat ky la (va thanh cong m p t each ky la) la "Subservient Chicken". Hp t p h o i rang liÂŁu co the tao ra mpt doan quang cao giong n h u vay cho oto hay khong. Khong phai cho bat cU loai xe nao, ma la cho xe Tahoe SUV ciia hang Chevy, loai xe da n i n g mang lai Wong lai cho cong ty me ciia Chevy la GM trong gan mpt thap nien qua, nhUng luc 1

do dang gap nhieu kho khan do gia xang len toi 3 dola/ gallon. Cong ty Campbell-Ewald da p h u trach mang quang cao cho Chevy t i i k h i hai ong Cambell va Edwald gap 1

Ten viet tat ctia General Motors, tap doan oto ldn nhat nude My. 386

Cai duoi dai marketing Louis Chevrolet vao nam 1914. Cong ty quang cao nay gid day can chiing to rang no khong chi hoat dpng tot trong qua khii, ma con co the ke thiia xiing dang nhiing di san trudc day. Nhutig co m o t dieu ro rang la nhutig giai phap thong thudng - dua qua nhieu quang cao ve dtd tren truyen M n h - se khdng mang lai hieu qua. ThU nhat, quang cao tren truyen hinh to ra khdng hieu qua n h u tnidc day. Cong ty t u van McKinsey d u doan rang den 2010, quang cao tren truyen W n h se chi cd hieu qua bang m d t phan ba so v d i nam 1990 do chi phi tang, so ngudi x e m giam xuong, nhieu h i n h thUc quang cao khac phat trien va kha nang bd qua cac doan quang cao do sU t r p giup ciia TiVo. ThU hai la mpt so van de khac n d i len n h u chien tranh Iraq, bien ddi k h i hau va m p t lan song ve m d i trudng lan nhanh khap dat nude, tat ca da khien cho viec ban m p t chiec xe ngon xang cd dpng cd nd vang ren t r d nen khd khan hdn bao gid het. Nhom lap ke hoach Campbell-Ewald da hy vpng rang giai phap cho viec ban xe Tahoe p h u thupc vao viec sii dung Web. Dd khdng chi la v i viec quang cao tren mang cd t i n h tudng tac, do vay se t h u hut dupe su tham gia l d n h d n quang cao tren truyen h i n h v d n cd tinh thu dpng, ma con giup tiep can nhiing khach hang khdng con quan tam t d i truyen h i n h nUa. T h d i k y ma truyen h i n h thdng t r i d d i song ciia nude My da t r d thanh qua khU. N h o m d d i tupng m a quang cao n h a m vao la n a m gidi t u d i u i 18-34 dang ngay cang danh nhieu thdi gian hdn de ludt mang, chdi games va khong 387

CAI DUOI DAI con quan tam den cac chuong t r i n h truyen hinh. N i i gidi t r o n g do t u d i tren cung dang d i theo k h u y n h hudng tren. Ban cang co nhieu tien t h i cang co thien hudng xem cac chuong trinh truyen hinh theo thdi gian rieng ctia m i n h n h d su t r o gitip ciia TiVo hay hop truyen h i n h cap - va cd the khdng xem cac chuong t r i n h quang cao. Nhom Campbell-Ewald da t i n h toan n h u sau: thuong hieu ciia Chevy la "Mot cuoc each mang My". Vay t h i hay lam m d t dieu gi do mang t i n h each mang! Nhung quang cao tren mang - n h u "hay lai oto bang each nhap chuot" - la chua d i i . Can nang cap chung len can t d chUc mot cupc t h i tren mang xem ai cd the tao ra m p t doan quang cao tdt nhat tren truyen h i n h cho chiec xe Tahoe. Cong ty Chevy se cung cap video clip va am nhac - chii yen la cac doan quang cao thong thudng, n h u doan bang ve mpt chiec Tahoe lao nhanh tren mpt tuyen dudng vang, dUng lai ben b d vach da cd phong canh dep; hay mdt sd lai xe lai nhung chiec Tahoe t d i m p t k h u n g canh dep hoang so tren con dudng go ghe. Nhung ngudi t r u y cap cd the t r o n va thay ddi b d i canh hay them p h u de. SU siia chUa qua mang ddi vdi doan quang cao 30 giay la y tudng co t i n h each mang thuc s u Bat dau vao thang 3, cupc t h i da dien ra trong bdn m a n sau do. Trong cac quang cao dupe phat tren tivi trong mpt tap p h i m dac biet ciia series The khan

gia

dupe

hudng

dan

vao

Apprentice,

trang

mang

Chevyapprentice.com de sang tao cac doan quang cao 388

Cai duoi dai marketing sii dung h i n h anh va cac cong cu bien tap don gian. Cuoc t h i do da t h u h u t hon 30 nghin hfdt tham gia, vol da so nhiet tinh ca ngoi nhieu diem manh cua chiec Tahoe - nhting chiec ghe co the xoay thoai mai, ctia xe dtiOc t r o life, tieu t h u nhien heu Wong d o i (nhan manh W "Wong doi") tiet k i e m Tuy nhien, sau do xuat hien nhting nhan xet tieu c u t vol n o i dung nguoc lai thong diep cua Tahoe k h i de cap den sti nong len ciia trai dat, sti vo trach n h i e m ctia xa hoi, cuoc chien d Iraq va sti phan cam ctia nhting loai xe dac biet ldn. Kho chiu hon la co nhting thdng diep rat sau cay: "Ban thich mtia he khdng? Hay l a m quen vdi nd"; "Gia dau cao ngat ngtidng. Cd the tot h o n neu ban d i bd". Tat nhien la cung cd nhan xet n h t i "Chiia Gie-su se d i bang phuong tien gi?" Tren trang web ctia m i n h , Tahoe da bi budc m o i toi, n h t i M n h dang vuong chan chan, hay toi ac chong lai loai ngtidi. Dieu toi te nhat la nhiing doan clip gay cudl va tai hai dtiOc dtia len trang YouTube va dtiOc xem hang tram ngan lan - so lan xem vtiot qua so lan truy cap vao trang chu ciia Chevy. Cong ty Campbell-Ewald da nhan dtidc dung nhting gi mong m u o n - mot ky luc cd t i n h lan truyen giong n h t i doan quang cao Subservient Chicken - nhting theo chieu htidng hoan toan k h d n g mong muon. Mot dam ddng t r e n mang da cau ket vdi nhau de chong lai san pham quang cao. Chtia het, mot ltidng khan gia l d n ngang v d i k h a n gia ciia m o t he thong truyen h i n h cap dang v u i mting nhay mtia tren sti bat hanh ciia m o t thtiomg hieu ndi tieng ciia My. 389

CAl EXJOI DAl Khong lau de cac blogger va phong vien nhan ra r a n g m o t s u k y l a d a n g x a y r a t a i t r a n g web Chevyapprentice.com. Dau tien, tat ca m o i ngudi deu cho rang dd la mpt v i du ntia ve mdt tap doan ldn khdng "dat dtipc muc dich" tren Internet. Sau do, k h i nhting doan quang cao tiep nic duoc dtia len mang, ho cho rang Chevy da khdng the nhan ra nhting gi dang dien ra tai trang web cua rninh. Chi dan dan m o i t h t i mdi t r d nen r d rang rang Chevy khong co y dinh dd bo nhting doan quang cao mang t i n h tieu cue Tren thuc te, n h o m Campbell Ewald ngay t t i dau da biet la se xuat hien m d t so phan ting tieu cut va hp cho rang viec dd bd chung se khien cong ty mat uy tin. Td'ng giam doc cua Chevy Ed Peper da cho biet tren blog FastLane cua GM rang xe Tahoe cd the chay bang ethanol va tiet kiem xang h o n cac loai xe SUV khac, nhting d o i v d i nhting gi Chevy dupe chi ra, ban chat cua xe nay van the. Trong nganh quang cao, cac chuyen gia v u i mting theo d d i sti kien am y tren va thdng bao v d i cac cong ty rang dieu dd cho thay ban khdng the thay ddi thtiting hieu trudc sti tan cong cua d u luan. Tuy nhien, theo muc tieu dat ra t h i chuong t r i n h Apprentice cua Tahoe chinh la m p t chtiong t r i n h thanh cong. Trang mang cua nd da t h u htit dtipc 629 n g h i n ltipt truy cap vao t h d i diem xac d i n h dtipc ngtidi thang cupc la Micheal Thrams, den t t i k h u ngoai d A n n Arbor. Dd la cudi thang Tti. Nhting ngtidi t r u y cap vao xem trang mang nay trung b i n h 9 phut/Ian va cd gan hai phan ba trong 390

Cai duoi dai marketing so do da t r u y cap mang Chevy.com. Trong ba m a n hoat dpng, Chevyapprentice.com d i n ngtidi x e m t d i trang mang cua Chevy nhieu h o n Google hay Yahoo!. Khi vao trang mang nay, nhieu ngudi da yeu cau thdng tin hay de lai cookie . 1

San liipng ban tang vpt mac d i i luc dd dang la mua xuan va so lupng ban ra ciia SUV da tang den d i n h diem vao mua t h u . Trong chin thang dau tien sau k h i dupe gidi thieu vao thang gieng nam 2006, so lupng xe Tahoe ban ra da chiem hon m p t phan t u tong so xe ban ra SUV, vttpt h o n loai xe ban chay ke tiep la Ford Expedition v o l t i le la 2:1. Vao thang 3, thang bat dau chien dich quang cao, t h i phan ciia Tahoe chiem k y luc la 30%. Vao thang tu, theo cong ty dich v u thdng tin ve dtd Edmonds, m p t chiec xe Tahoe t r u n g b i n h dupe ban trong 46 ngay - khoang t h d i gian n i t ngan so vol mpt nam trudc, k h i cac mau xe khac can t d i gan bon thang. Ngay ca n h u n g I d i la d ciia n h u n g nha quang cao chuyen nghiep ciing giam xuong sau k h i Scott Donaton, bien tap vien t d bao Advertising

Age,

da dat cau h d i trong m p t bai viet rang ai la ngudi cho rang chien d j c h quang cao Tahoe cho thay s u n i i ro tti nhting phan h o i ciia khach hang. Ong da viet: "Diing la chi cd vai ngtidi cd quan d i e m n h t i vay - cac ban cd the t t i do r a d i ; nganh quang cao k h d n g can su phuc vu ciia nhirng ngtidi dd. Chiing t d i cd san m p t m o n do 1

Trong ngon ngir lap trinh, cookie la cac thong tin ve ngudi vao mang de lai sau khi vao mpt dja chi web. 391

CAl DUOI DAl choi dudng ray xe lua n h u m o t m o n qua tang cho nhung ngtidi dd". Donaton da cong kich thang vao gia t r i trung tam cua "thdi ky vang son" cua nganh quang cao dtia vao truyen thdng dai chung: rang bang each k i e m soat thdng diep quang cao cua m d t san pham, Madison Avenue cd the kiem soat duoc nhan thtic ve san pham 1

dd". Ed D i l w o r t h , m d t nha dieu hanh cua cong ty Campbell da noi: " K h i ban tien hanh mot chien dich quang cao cd sti tham gia cua khach hang, ban se nhan dtiOc mpt so phan ting tieu cut. K h i do, ban se phai ltia chpn: ddng quang cao lai u? Dieu dd khdng cd l o i . Ben canh dd, ban cd nghi rang trtitic dd khach hang da khdng don doan ve Tahoe chac? Tat nhien la co, sti khac biet chinh la trong thdi dai YouTube, tham vong kiem soat nhan thtic cua khach hang da t r d nen mong manh hon bao gid het. "Ban cd the lua chon, hoac la co t h u trong boong-ke, hoac dtia san pham ra ngoai de nhan dtiOc b i n h pham cua khach hang. Co t h u trong boong-ke chinh la m o t tham hoa". Tai sao doan quang cao ve Tahoe lai cd tac dung, dti da b i tan cong b d l nhting ngtidi khdng thich san pham nay? Trtitic het, quan niem cho rang SUV khdng cd tac dung bao ve m d i trtidng khdng phai la dieu gi m d i d o i v d i nhirng khach hang tiem nang. Thtic te, co the viec nhting chiec xe ldn b i cao budc gay ra d nhiem 1

Dai 10 Madison tai thanh pho New York, gan khu Manhattan, dupe coi la bieu Wong aia nganh quang cao My. 392

Cai duoi dai marketing m o i miofng lai co siic hap dan d o i v d i mpt so khach hang tai cac bang bao t h u ciia ntidc My. T h i i hai, cong 1

ty Chevy dupe coi la da t h u hut dupe su ung hp ciia khach khang thong qua viec td chUc cupc t h i tren mang va sau do da khong d d bd nhUng nhan xet tieu cue. Doi vdi m p t thuong hieu xe oto My k e m hap dan, dieu dd gan gidng n h u bien cai khdng the thanh dieu co the. Tuy nhien, n h u cau chuyen ve Tahoe da chi ra, cong ty nay cung phai tra gia. NhUng ngudi truy cap mang, chU khdng phai nhting nha quang cao, la ngtidi dtia ra thdng diep tren mang, dac biet k h i hp dtipc m d i dtia ra suy nghi ciia rieng hp. Viec t i m k i e m sp can dp* va MOng tac vol khach hang tat yeu se dan den t i n h trang mat kiem soat. D o i v o l nhting ngtidi l u o n t i m each bao ve thtidng hieu ciia cong ty trong ca sti nghiep ctia hp thi viec b i mat vai trd sang tao va kiem soat thdng diep ve thtidng hieu la mpt dieu vtia quai la, vtia dang sp. Tuy nhien, khdng cd each gi de ngan can dieu do. Ngtidi tieu diing ngay cang t h a m gia nhieu vao viec danh gia san pham. YouTube da tran ngap cac doan quang cao tieu cue ve Chevy va dieu dd da vtidt xa nhting gi ma chtidng t r i n h Tahoe Appretice mang lai, ca theo nghia tieu cue va t i c h cue. YouTube dang tai doan clip ve "Chevy Lowrider Commercial" v d i n p i dung la nhirng chiec xe Chevy cd t r e n dtidng phd, "Chevy Ridin'", m p t doan slide show cd canh nhieu 1

Nguyen van la Red-state: nhung bang ung ho Dang Cong hoa, nhin chung cd xu hudng bao thu, khong coi trqng van de mdi trudng. 393

CAI DUOI DAl chiec Chevy hang sang p h u hoa cho ban nhac rap hit "Chevy Riclin' High". Tham chi co ca doan chp "Chevy Tahoe Memorial", mot doan video t h i i v i ve mot thanh nien lai xe ngoan ngheo, b i trech banh va cuoi ciing lam hong chiec xe SUV yeu quy ciia anh ta. Quang cao do khach hang thuc hien da dan den hanh v i cu x i i thuc su dao nguoc NhUng cong ty trudc day chi m u o n ap dat khach hang, nay lai yeu cau khach hang len tieng. NhUng san pham khong con dinh hinh b a n sac ciia cong c h u n g nUa ( n h u GapKids, the Malboroman), nguoc lai, chung d d i h o i cong chung giup d m h h i n h ban sac ciia chung. Tuy nhien, chang cd dieu gi ky la hon y tudng la ban cd the ban mdt san pham bang each dua nd ra va de m o i ngudi dua ra nhan xet ve no. Tat ca deu n d i ho m u o n nghe ngudi tieu diing. Hay can than ve viec ban m u o n dieu gi: ho se khdng chiu i m mieng lai dau. Dd la su nd'i len ciia Cdi dudi ddi ngudi tieu diing. Cung v d i su v d v u n ciia cac t h i trudng la su v d vun ciia nganh quang cao. NhUng doan quang cao nham vao tat ca moi ngudi tren cac phuong tien truyen thdng khong con chi phoi khach hang nUa: ho hoac la khong xem phuong tien do nUa, hoac la chu y t d i cac thong diep quang cao khac. Trong su dao nguoc quyen luc gan hen vdi su ndi len ciia cac trang web do ngudi truy cap chi p h d i - cac ca nhan duoc t i n tudng hon, cac t d chUc i t duoc t i n tudng hon - t h i thdng diep quang cao cd hieu qua nhat lai den tU nhting ngudi tieu diing vdi nhau. Khdng gi cd the ngan dtidc sii truyen mieng va 394

Cai duoi dai marketing Web la phuong tien khuech dai 1cm nhat su truyen mieng do m a the gidi tting chiing kien. Van de d o i vdi cac t h i trudng b i v d v u n va nhiing ngudi tieu diing dupe dap Ung n h u cau rieng la cd qua nhieu t h i trudng va qua nhieu ngudi tieu dung. Khdng mdt cong ty nao cd the tao ra nhiing thdng diep quang cao d i i de nham t d i tat ca ngudi tieu dung tiem nang doi vdi san p h a m ciia ho. Trong m d t each nham l a m duoc mot dieu gan n h u vay, Google da tao ra nhting doan quang cao theo t t i khoa cd hen he vdi s i n pham, song cung b i han che ve t t i khoa va b i quy ket la p h u thupc v i o cac "dtidng l i n k thue q u i n g cao". Do dd, c i c h tot nhat de q u i n g ba d o i vdi nhting khach hang Cdi dudi ddi la t i m x e m ai la ngtidi cd i n h htidng vdi hp va tap trung no hie vao dd. Dieu dd cd nghia la i t dtia ra thdng diep q u i n g cao hem va l i n g nghe ngtidi tieu diing nhieu hon. That may la nhting cong cp de lang nghe lai chua bao gid tot n h t i hien nay. Vtia la cong cu truyen mieng tot nhat, cac trang web ciing la phticmg tien cd the do luting hanh v i khach hang mpt c i c h hieu q u i nhat. Cd hang chuc cong cu tren mang cd the n d i vdi ban ve viec ngtidi tieu dting danh gia s i n p h a m ciia ban n h t i the nao va ai t r o n g so nhting ngtidi dd cd i n h htidng ldn nhat. Nhting cong cu dd la: â&#x20AC;˘ Bo loc Technorati (hay Google Alerts): Ban cd the cai dat cong cu nay va nd se cho ban biet vao bat cti t h d i d i e m nao, bat cti b l o g nao, hay n h t i n g 395

CAI DUOI DAI duting link dan t d i URL ma ban yeu cau hay sii dung theo dinh dang ciia ban. Duoc tai qua email hoac thdng t i n RSS (mdt kenh thdng t i n giup ngtidi dang k y co the doc thdng t i n bang Bloglines hay My Yahoo!), nhting thdng t i n do co the den vol ban 6 at neu ban khdng hia chon dieu kien mot each ky luting. Tuy nhien, chung la nhting thong t i n gan nhat phan anh nhip dap ctia the gidi tren mang, neu ban co thdi gian de theo doi chiing (hay nhd ai do gitip theo doi). â&#x20AC;˘

Google Trends: Trang mang nay gitip ban theo ddi m d t c u m t t i hay m o t san p h a m dtiOc t i m kiem thtidng xuyen tdi mtic nao, va so sanh nd ve ca mat thdi gian va ca v d i cac san pham khac. Khdng chi co vay, nd con chi cho ban nhting thanh pho va k h u vtic dia ly nao t i m k i e m chiing thtidng xuyen nhat. Chang han, t h t i theo ddi mot muting hieu ldn nao dd bang each so sanh "[thtiong hieu] sucks" so vol "[thtiotig hieu] rocks" . Neu ban lam viec cho 1

thtidng hieu dd, trtidc het hay co gang. â&#x20AC;˘

Social n e t w o r k s : Mot trong nhting stic manh ciia cac trang mang n h t i MySpace va Facebook la ban co the t i m k i e m tren cac trang thtidng hieu hay danh gia san p h a m va sau dd phan tich b o i canh: ai de cap den san p h a m dd, ho dang n d i gi va ho cd anh htidng tdi ai. Dieu cd the giup tao ra nhting thdng t i n ve "nhting khach hang dau tien", nhting ngtidi cd the tao ra d t i luan hay x u htidng.

Suck: toi t i Rock: gay cam htfng, choang ngrjrp. 396

Cai duoi <3a\ marketing Mot trong iihting co gang ciia t o i k h i ghe tham cac cong ty [trong qua t r i n h viet cuon sach nay] la h o i ho ve viec m o t khach hang se t i m k i e m gi k h i lam cong viec ma rihting khach hang trung b i n h thtidng l a m rim kiem bang Google ve cong ty ma hp muon t i m hieu. Ban se ngac nhien ve viec co bao nhieu cong ty khong biet cau tra 161. Chinh hp da khong sii dung Google. Van de khong chi la trang mang ciia hp se xuat hien 6 dau trong lenh t i m kiem, ma la nhutig thong t i n nao khac se xuat hien tren ciing m p t trang. Trong nhieu trtidng hpp, m p t trong nhutig ket qua tjm l d l m gan nhat la ten cong ty do dupe dua len mang Wikipedia. Thong tin do dupe viet bdi nhutig ngudi binh thudng co quan tam t o i cong ty va hp thudng la nhutig ngudi ling hp nhiet thanh nhat, hoac la chong doi cong ty manh nhat. Thay vi tong hpp hai ddng thdng t i n tren de cd dupe thdng t i n trung hda (cd the la chinh xac), muc tieu ciia Wikipedia la ung hp nhting chi trich va thtidng danh m p t muc cho nhting y kien trai ngupc xung quanh cong ty. Tat ca cac cong ty deu cd y kien trai ngtipc va doi vol nhting ngtidi chi trich t h i hp khdng tti bd bat cti thdng t i n d i i nhd be nao. Thtidng t h i mpt dang can bang nao dd se dat dtipc de nhting thdng t i n mang t i n h chi trich khdng chi phoi, nhutig dieu thti v i vdi t d i la cd qua i t cong ty t i m each stia chtia nhting thdng t i n ve hp. Viec tao ra thdng t i n ban dau tren Wikipedia de t h u hut m p i ngtidi stia chtia va giao cho m p t ngtidi theo ddi ve thdng t i n dd la chuyen b i n h thtidng. Nhting viec 397

CAl DUOI DAI xuat hien thong t i n khong trung thuc lai la van de l d n - cac cong ty se thay khd x d neu phai ty: sua chua thdng tin ctia chinh niinh, dd la do viec t i m dia chi IP de dang se giup dieu tra dupe ai la ngudi da dua thdng t i n len mang, ai la ngtidi stia va k h i dd cong ty cd the b i dtia ra cong luan ve viec da tay thdng t i n ve minh. Cd mot so each khac la len hit stia chtia t t i may tinh d nha hoac may n n h cong cpng (each nay giti dtidc b i mat song lai khdng trong sach ve dao dtic), hay keu gpi mpt hdi dong dpc lap gitip stia chtia l o i va cac thdng t i n thien kien. Tra Idi cac blogger co ve de hon ve ly thuyet, song khdng kem phan nhay cam va ton thdi gian tren thtic te. Cong viec dd la phai lang nghe (giao cho ai dd theo doi cac thdng t i n dang tai) va sau do xac d m h xem each thtic va thdi gian tra Idi. Neu mdt blogger ca ngpl m p t cong ty hay m p t san pham t h i can gui mdt email cam On (blogger se nghi "Hp da dpc blog cua tdi!") va cd the tao ra mpt ngtidi trung thanh lau dai. Doi v d i blog chi trich t h i khd khan hon. Tuy nhien, mpt hinh thtic tra Idi nao dd se tot hon la i m lang, mpt phan la v i dieu dd cho thay sp: t o n t r p n g d o i v d i blogger dd, mpt dieu t r p gitip dang ke cho viec thay ddi t i n h the. Muc tieu ctia blog la dtia van de ra cong chung, nen viec tra Idi d muc b i n h luan, ndi m p i ngtidi se dpc, thtidng mang lai hieu qua cao hdn la m p t btic t h t i ca nhan. Tot nhat la m p t ngtidi khac khong phai la nhan vien PR dtia ra cau tra Idi. Gidng n h t i tat ca chung ta, blogger m u d n t h u hut sp" chti y va ngtidi tra Idi cang gan v d i chu de chi trich t h i cang tot. V i dp, 398

Cai duoi dai marketing tra 161 t i i nha quan ly san pham se tot hon la t t i nhan vien trp" giiip khach hang, bdi v i dieu do co nghia la 161 chi trich do dtipc lang nghe va xem xet k y lifting bdl nhirng ngudi co trach nhiem l a m ra san pham. Tuy nhien, ve nguyen tac, do la tat ca nhirng gi ban co the lam de chi p h o i d u luan. Mpt chien lupc quang cao Cdi dudi ddi co the lam dupe nhieu nhat la tao ra nhan thtic bang each khuyen khich sti truyen mieng gitia nhting khach hang tiem nang. Neu mpt san pham khong tot t h i khong the dung email, dti co gtii bao nhieu d i chang ntia, de giU cho no khong b i dao thai hay quen lang. Thuc te co mpt nganh cong nghiep hen tpc cho ra ddi san pham chat ltipng kem va cho den gan day tiep nic thanh cong vol chieu quang cao k i n h hoang. Do la Hollywood, nhting tdi khdng am chi hau het nhiing bp phim dtipc san xuat tai dd. Tuy nhien, each thtic ma mpt bp p h i m nhan dtipc tai t r p va dtia vao san xuat cho thay trtitic k h i m p i chuyen t r d nen rd rang ve cd trien vpng t h i sp* r u i ro ldn da dtipc dat vao kich ban va nhirng dpi lam p h i m . Nhieu bp p h i m da khdng dat dtipc ky vpng. Den day, sti giong nhau gitia Hollywood va cac nha t t i ban dau t t i mao hiem da t r d nen khac nhau. Cac nha dau t t i mao h i e m se giai the cong ty k h d n g cd t r i e n v p n g l a m an h i e u q u a . N h t i n g Hollywood van tiep nic phat hanh p h i m bang bat cti each nao vol gia thuyet rang mpt chien dich quang cao hieu qua se keo d u ltipng khan gia den rap de t h u dtipc tien dau t t i . 399

CAI DUOI DAI Tuy nhien, gia thuyet do ngay cang t r d nen k e m chac chan. V a n de of day la su t r u y e n m i e n g lan nhanh va hieu qua t d i mUc nhung bd p h i m t o i se b i loai ra gan n h u ngay lap ttic. Mo h i n h quang cao cu ctia Hollywood la ban cd the nghien rang, mua nhieu quang cao va " m d r d n g " ra hang n g h i n rap chieu phim, dieu se bao dam bo p h i m dd cd ItiOng khan gia l d n t r o n g vai cuoi tuan, i t nhat cho den k h i cong chung d i xem va nhan ra rang doan p h i m quang cao hay hon rat nhieu p h i m that. Tuy nhien, ngay nay, viec " m d rdng" la chtia du. Hai mtiol nam trtidc, mot bo p h i m trung b i n h b i giam doanh so ban ve tai rap 30% d m a n cong chieu t h t i hai so v d i m a n t h t i nhat. Ngay nay, con so t r u n g b i n h la hon 50%. Nhting bd p h i m t o i dtipc biet den t t i trtidc k h i chung duoc cong chieu (nhd nhting trang mang cua ngtidi ham m d p h i m nhti Rotten Tomatoes va Ain't It Cool News), va phan ting cua k h a n gia d o i v d i cac bud'i chieu t h t i nghiem, trtidc day dtipc tien hanh b i mat, gid day duoc dtia len blog chi vai p h u t sau k h i ket thtic p h i m . Vao thdi diem mdt bp p h i m dtipc cong chieu tren thtic te va dtipc dam dong bao chi danh gia, t h i nhan xet cua khan gia ve viec lieu bp p h i m nay co thanh cong hay khdng da dtipc lan truyen tren khap the gidi, xa h o n ca nhting cpng dong khan gia trung thanh cua Hollywood trtidc day thtidng t u ban tan vdi nhau. Dd la tat ca nhting gi quang cao cd the lam. 400

Cai duoi dai marketing Ly do a i a viec doanh t h u ban ve giam xuong d m a n t h i i hai nhanh n h u the khong phai la v i chat luong phim kem hon tnidc day. Luon tdn tai nhUng bd p h i m hay, d d va phan nhieu la d mUc trung binh. Van de mdi la chiing ta nhan ra hai loai p h i m sau nhanh h o n rat nhieu. Chung ta cd the doc nhieu danh gia ve p h i m hon - ca tich cue va tieu cue, chuyen nghiep va khdng chuyen - va nghe dieu ma cac khan gia khac, bao gdm nhung ngudi xem t h i i nghiem, danh gia. Dieu nay giup quang cao nhirng p h i m hay, song lai cd hai cho nhUng bd phim t o i . Su truyen mieng tren mang la thuoc giai doc d d i v d i each quang cao ciia Hollywood va loai phim tot se duoc thang hoa, trong k h i loai p h i m t o i se bi dao thai. That khdng may cho Hollywood la hQ khdng the cai thien duoc t i n h h i n h nay. Con quy da ra khdi chat NhUng khan gia dang kiem soat thdng tin. Dieu gi se xay ra k h i cac cong ty khdng lang nghe ngudi tieu diing? Hay lang nghe cau chuyen b u o n ciia Jeff Jarvis va chiec may t i n h hong ciia ong ta. Thang 6 nam 2005, Jarvis, mdt nha chien hide nganh xuat ban tai manh pho New York (ong ay va tdi lam viec tai bd phan khac nhau trong o i n g mdt cong ty k i n h doanh cd phieii) cd van de v d i chiec may t i n h xach tay hieu Dell ciia m i n h . Gidng n h u m p i ngudi, ong da gpi dien cho bp p h | n t r p giup ky thuat va dang buon la cung gidng n h u m p i ngudi, ong da b i n i choi. Mpt vai m a n troi qua va Jarvis ngay cang ttic gian. Ong da b i lUa! Bp phan d j c h v u khach hang ciia cong t y Dell that thdi nat! Cong t y nay se khdng the yen o n v i chuyen nay! 401

CAI DUOI DAI Trong hoan canh do, phan ting thong thtidng se hoac la phan nan vol ban be, hoac khong bao gid mua may t i n h Dell niia, hoac tham chi vhk t h u cho chinh ngudi sang lap ra cong ty Dell la Michael Dell. Nhung Jarvis la mdt trong nhiing khach hang the he mdi. Ong ta co trang blog kha nd'i tieng la BuzzMachine, mot blog cd luong doc gia gan bang mdt t d bao (va ciing cd luc co entry ling ho cuoc t h i American Idol). Do blog giong n h u mot con t h u doi va Jarvis danh may nhanh hon hau het m o i ngudi ndi, nen ong ta quyet d m h dua len blog su khong hai long ctia m i n h ve Dell. Ong ta da viet dieu do mot each chi tiet va trong thdi gian dai. Ong lay ten ciia chii de la "Dell khon kiep" (Dell Hell), m o t cai ten nd'i bat. Moi lan dua bai len mang, ong lai cudng dieu ve cong ty, ve san pham ctia no va dich vu khach hang. Khong chi kha nang k i e m soat c h i t luong ye'u kem, ma con te hai hon: khong lang nghe khach hang, mot tdi loi chinh trong ky nguyen Internet. Ong da viet: "Tdi nhan dupe t h u ctia nhan vien cong ty Dell, hp rd rang khong de y k h i viet t h u t r i Idi 'Chao ong Langley'. Toi dinh chinh lai va ndi ten la Jarvis. Hp viet lai: 'Chao ba Kolar'." Neu trudng hpp ctia Jarvis la b i t thudng t h i nhting bai viet tren blog ctia dng ta co le chi dtipc vai ngtidi dpc va roi vao quen lang. Nhiing nhirng gi dng viet xay ra nhieu den mtic no khdng p h i i la bat thtidng. Thtic te, Dell da t r i i qua mot cupc khung h o i n g ve kiem soat c h i t ltipng, mac d t i cong ty nay da khdng nhan ra. Cong ty Dell da phat trien va t r d nen qua ldn, chiu qua 402

Cai duoi dai marketing nhieu ap luc t r i t h i trudng chung khoan pho Wall dan toi phai cat chi p h i va b i mat kiem soat ke t i i k h i ngudi sang lap ra nd quyet dinh nghi h i i u sdm. Ket qua la co hang nghin khach hang gian d i i giong n h u Jarvis. Khi dng ta "xuat ban" bai viet dau tien, dieu dd giong nhu viec danh liia vao dong r o m . Su n d i loan bat dau d muc b i n h luan ciia bai viยงt dau tien tren va sau do dudl dang t h u dien t i i . Cd gan 2.500 b i n h luan ddi vol khoang m d t chuc bai viet sau khi phong trao chong Dell h i n h thanh. Trong vong ba man, cd hang nghin duoc l i n k den cac bai viet ciia Jarvis va cum t t i "Dell Hell" da dtidc dtia vao t t i viing tren mang. Cac phuong tien thdng tin dai chiing da chti y; Jarvis va chiec may tinh hong ciia dng t r d thanh chii de ciia m o i t d bao, t t i New York Times den MSNBC. Chi den hie dd cong ty Dell m d i phat hien rang cd mpt dam ddng dang gian d t i tai ciia cong ty m i n h . Ngay lap ttic, cong ty nay da tien hanh m p t sd viec de bao chtia: x i n l o i Jarvis, thay may t i n h cho dng ta, ntia se cai t d quy t r i n h k i e m soat... Nhting da qua m u p n . Thtidng hieu nay da b i b d i xau. Mpt lenh t i m k i e m tren Google la "Dell" da hien t h i cac bai viet ciia Jarvis tren trang dau va Wikipedia cung cd muc ve Dell ndi ve tham kich vtia qua. Gid day, da hai n a m t r d i qua, khdng phai khong co ly k h i n d i s i i viec tren da gitip thay d d i cong ty dd. Michael Dell da t r d lai, cam ket dtia cong ty t r d lai chinh sach cd b a n coi khach hang la t r u n g tam. Ong ta da t r i hoan ke hoach chuyen hau het phan t r p giup ky 403

CAl DUOI DAI thugt ciia cong ty sang A n Dp. (Khong phai v i the ma viec thue lam ben ngoai la mpt dieu xau, diing khong? Chi co dieu no khong dupe thuc hien tot va t r d thanh bieu tupng de ket t p i Dell la da dat l p i nhuan len tren l p i ich ciia khach hang). Dell cung da cai to quy t r i n h san xuat, khong chi cai tien ky thuat mpt each can ban, ma con t i m each cai tien M n h thUc va khuyen khich ddi m d i . (NhUng t t i sau day dupe viet tren chiec may xach tay m d i ciia Dell, m p t dieu kha ngac nhien bat chap viec bay lau nay t d i van trung thanh vdi may tinh hieu TliinkPad. Nhutig nhan thUc ciia t d i ve Dell da thay ddi...) Ngay nay, neu ban danh "Dell Sucks" tren Google 1

Trends, ban se biet dupe hai dieu. ThU nhat, cd ba thdi diem t t i khoa tren dtipc ndi t d i nhieu nhat - nhting bai viet dau tien ctia Jarvis, t h d i diem sau dd m p t thang k h i sti chong d d i ma dng ta k h d i dau dtipc bao chi quan tam, va mpt nam sau, k h i mpt sd may tinh laptop ciia Dell bde chay (do sti dpng p i n ciia hang Sony, t o i m u d n b d sung ngay chi tiet nay). Sau dd, n i khoa dd xuat hien d mtic dp tdi thieu, that may rang den chiing dd la du. Thti hai, dia diem t i m kiem tii "Dell Sucks" nhieu nhat la Austin, bang Texas, mpt dja diem khdng he ngau nhien la t r u sd ciia Dell. Diing, cong ty Dell dang t i m kiem t t i "Dell Sucks", cd ve n h t i vay. Cong ty nay dang lang nghe n i phia khach hang. 1

Tam djch: Dell chd ma, khon nan. 404

Cai duoi dai marketing Day la mot kinh nghiem thii vi. Neu ban co mot chiec may t i n h Dell gap van de khong the giai quyet dupe (phai diing la n h u the va khong con each nao giai quyet nUa), va m p t blog, hay giii thong bao van de ciia ban. Sau do chd doi. Theo nhUng thong t i n g i n day, ban se dupe hen he trong vong mpt man t t i cong ty Dell de gitip giai quyet. Cong ty nay hien co m p t n h o m nhan vien gioi chiu trach n h i e m mang blog va giai quyet ngay van de trtidc k h i qua mupn. Dell da chuyen t t i mpt cong ty khdng hieu biet ve ngtidi tieu dung tren mang de t r d thanh cong ty biet lang nghe nhat tieng gpi ciia Cdi dudi

ddi

Bang bieu trang 321 ve 50 dia chi mang xep theo cac dtidng link den da cho ban m p t cai n h i n sp bp ve btic tranh tao anh htidng m d i . Dieu ma bang bieu dd khdng chi ra la phan btic tranh t t i dia chi hang 51 den 8 trieu. Ty le gitia phtiting tien thdng t i n chinh thong va nghiep d u giam xuong, thap chi d dia chi t h t i 200, nhting blog cd anh htidng l d n da cd so ltipng dpc gia rihieu hern mpt kenh thdng t i n truyen thong. Tai sao toi lai chpn tieu chuan la nhting dtidng link den l a m thtidc do tao anh htidng? Bdi v i chiing la each tot nhat de do su truyen mieng tren mang. Hyperlink tao ra su thay d d i sau sac ve each chiing 1

ta danh gia anh htidng. Cach truyen thdng de danh gia tac dpng va stic m a n h ciia truyen thdng dtidc dtia tren quy m d khan gia, sd ngtidi dpc, ngtidi nghe, ngtidi

Sieu ket ndi 405

CAl DUOI DAl xem, so ltipng phat harm, so luong ngtidi dang k y va dai loai n h u the. Cach nay chu yeu dua tren so ngtidi tiep can truyen thong. Chung ta khdng bao gid biยงt ho nghi gi ve nhting t h t i doc dtipc, ho l a m gi sau k h i co duoc an ttipng. De hieu tai sao each danh gia m d i - dem so dtidng link d ยง n - la each tot hon nhieu, ban phai thtic sti hieu duoc ban chat cua hyperlink. Giong nhti nhirng y ttiting thtic sti l d n va cap tien, hyperhnk se ddi h d i hang thap nien de cd the hieu thau dao. Thuat ngti nay lain dau tien xuat hien tren Internet n i T i m Berners-Lee, ngtidi da sang tao ra trang Web vao n a m 1990, nhting ve mat l y thuyet, dieu nay co n g u o n g6c t t i Ted Nelson, ngtidi da ttiting m o n g ra mot mang ltidl toan cau k i t noi cac van ban vol nhau bang ke hoach Xanadu khong bao gid dtipc hoan thanh t t i n a m 1960 - va tham chi dieu dd con dtipc xay dpng n i y ttiting ban dau ve mpt bp nao toan cau do Vannevar Bush dtia ra vao nam 1945. Chi den gid day, chung ta m d i biet tac ddng day d u ctia nd. Khi nghi ve nd, ban se thay sieu ket noi la hinh thtic cuoi ciing ctia sii hao phong tren mang. Khi mpt ai dd ket n o i v o l m d t dia chi khac, dieu ma hp dang l a m la n d i v d i nhting ngtidi dang x e m trang mang ciia m i n h la hay chuyen qua trang mang khac. Hp ndi: "Thiia quy vi, gid t d i de nghi la neu quy v i m u o n t i m hieu them, x i n m d i hay r d i k h d i trang ctia t d i va t d i dia chi khac n h t i the nay. T d i t i n rang dia chi dd se khdng l a m mat t h d i gian ciia quy v i . T d i t i n rang quy v i se hai long 406

Cai duoi dai marketing k h i chuyen trang. T o i t i n rang quy v i se t r d lai trang a i a toi, va k h i t r d lai, quy v i se cam On t o i v i da sang suot goi y dudng link dd". Tuong t u n h u the, dieu ma ai dd ndi vdi ban k h i ho ket n o i vdi ban la: "Tdi biet ve ban va tat ca nhUng gi thudc ve ban, do vay t d i se chuyen m o t phan uy t i n a i a tdi cho ban. Uy t i n dd da duoc t d i xay dung trong nhieu nam vdi doc gia. Tdi se truyen lai sti t i n tudng ma doc gia danh cho t d i tdi ban dtidi h i n h thtic thdng tin trao dd'i qua mang cd su Uu tien rd rang". 1

Ddng thdng t i n trao dd'i qua mang tdi t t i dtidng link a i a ben thti ba (hay t t i ket qua t i m kiem dtidc nhting dtidng link dd) la sU chuyen dong t t i nhting doc gia cd xu htidng yeu thich, t o n trong va danh gia cao nhirng thong tin d dd, bdi v i ho d i theo khuyen nghi ctia m o t nguon tin cay. Khai niem chuyen ddng vdi su thien v i tich cue la khai m e m hoan toan m d i . Trong md hinh truyen thdng cti, chung ta da biet so ltiqng ngtidi xem, ngtidi nghe, nhting chiing ta khdng biet m o i ngtidi nghi g i . Cac phtidng tien dd chi phan anh chung chung. Mot so ngtidi thich san pham, m o t so khac t h i khdng, song rat k h d cd the phan biet gitia ho vdi nhau neu k h d n g phan n h o m hoac lam viec gi dd ttiting nr. Tuy nhien, sti chuyen dong dtia t r e n hyperlink, hien chiem h d n m o t ntia chuyen ddng tren moi trang mang, la chuyen dong cd the danh gia duoc xu htidng ve mot van de nao dd nhd sti truy t i m nguon goc ciia van de quan t a m . 1

Nguyen ban tieng Anh la Traffic. 407

CAI DUOI DAl Ly do khien dieu nay quan trpng la b d i v i Google, la each chiing ta kiem tien n i web, dang danh Uu tien cao nhat cho cac hyperlink. Khi danh gia van de nao co lien quan, Google khong dua tren phan tich ve nghia ctia n i ma dua tren danh gia so lupng cac dtidng link den. NhUng dudng link dd co vai t r d n h u cac la phieu, nhting la phieu t i n nhiem va the hien sti lien quan. Chung hoan toan co the do dem duoc. Do dd, v i t r i trong hien t h i t i m kiem tren Google ctia mdt van de p h u thupc vao so ltipng dtidng link ve van de do. V i t r i cao se bien thanh chuyen dpng, den ltipt nd, chuyen ddng lai d i kem vdi sp thien v i tich ctic bdi vi nd dtipc khuyen nghi bdl Google, va sti chuyen dpng mang t i n h thien v i tich ctic dd bien thanh nhting dia chi cua trang mang quang cao. Ve co ban, dieu nay la mdt su hoan ddi k i n h te: Google chuyen uy t i n thanh sti chti y (chuyen ddng) va cac trang mang quang cao chuyen su chti y thanh tien. Dieu dd ly giai tai sao ngay nay, sii truyen mieng tren mang thdng t r i quang cao. Cach quang cao cti gid day cd the dtipc khuech dai len hang nghin lan, dtipc do dem va lan toa tren pham vi toan cau, va sau dd dtipc tra bang tien. Dieu dd giai thich tai sao m d hinh quang cao Cdi dudi ddi lai bat dau bang viec t h u h u t cac dtidng link den de chi phdi d t i luan - nhiing dam dong dtipc tao thanh t t i cd sd, cd dac t i n h tti-dtidi-len, hiiu cd, chinh thdng va dtipc bao mat. Cudi ciing t h i m d 408

Cai duoi dai marketing hinh quang cao nay se chi phoi hanh vi aia nguoi tieu diing trong the k y 2 1 . Hay de y den nhting cong ty l d n nhat, nhting cong ty da quoc gia trong qua t r i n h dich chuyen quyen lye tti cac t d chtic den cac ca nhan. Do lo ngai tai san thuong hieu b i mat nen cac cong ty nay thtidng la nhting t d chtic do dif nhat trong viec t t i bd cac thdng diep quang cao tti-tren-xudng, mang t i n h menh lenh va chi huy. Dieu nay khien cau chuyen cua Kenh sd 9 ciia Microsoft t r d nen dang ngac nhien hdn. Dau nam 2003, h i n h anh ctia Microsoft dtidng n h t i da d dtitii day trong con mat ciia d t i luan. Cong ty nay hen tuc b i dieu tra ve cao budc ltia ddi, dieu da gay rat nhieu khd khan cho cong ty trong hau het thdi gian cudi thap nien 1990. Gia cd phieu ciia nd khdng tang va Google da ttitic mat vtidng mien ctia Microsoft la cong ty phat dat nhat ve cong nghe thdng t i n . Cd ve n h t i Microsoft khdng the thay d d i h i n h anh ciia nd. Chang ai nghi ngd dieu nay. Trong hang thap nien, hinh anh cua cong ty la h i n h anh ciia hai nhan vat la Bill Gates va Steve Ballmer. Moi k h i n g h i ve ho la ban n g h i ngay ve M i c r o s o f t . Neu ban n g h i ho la rihting nha doc quyen day da t a m t h i khdng cd each nao l a m ban thay d d i quan diem ve cong ty. Neu ban nghi rang hp v i p h a m hien phap trong viec tao ra cac san p h a m gay ra t i n h trang p h u thupc ciia ngtidi tieu dung vao san p h a m dd - m p t san p h a m ma cong ty Apple o i n g cd the l a m - t h i van de d d se khdng the 409

CAI DUOI DAI thay doi cho dxi cong ty co tien hanh chien dich quang cao l d n the nao d i chang ntia. Do la suy nghi ma Len Pryor l u o n dau dau sau k h i d u mpt cupc hpi thao ve phat trien ciia Microsoft. Ong la nha quan ly cua Microsoft phu trach mang "Xay dpng sp* gan ket ciia khach hang" nhung cong viec ngay cang t r d nen khd khan. NhUng ngtidi viet mat ma da bat dau chting kien n h u cau ngay cang tang doi v d i he dieu hang Linux hay Apple. Nhting cong ty n h t i Yahoo! va Google dang thtic sti lam an phat dat tren mang. Sp xuat hi?n ctia Web 2.0 co nghia la nhting cong cu viet phan m e m chay tren cac t r i n h duyet Web (chti khong phai tren mpt may t i n h de ban), dang re hon va day quyen ltic, d i i de cho ra d d i hang nghin cong ty m d i ma khdng can den phan m e m ctia Microsoft. Pryor da tting thti nghiem viec dtia len blog ndi dung ctia Hpi thao phat trien vao cuoi 2003 va nhan dtidc rat nhieu quan tam ctia d t i luan. Tuy nhien, k h i cupc Hpi thao dd ket thtic t h i blog ctia dng cung b i dong. Lam the nao de Microsoft cd the m d rpng each thtic lien he v d i khach hang trong thdi gian ca nam va tiep can dtipc nhting chuyen gia viet phan m e m tham gia nhting cupc h p i thao dd? Pryor von la ngtidi sp di may bay. Mpt ngtidi ban than ctia dng da song sot sau k h i may bay suyt b i dam dau nhting nam 1990 va sti kien do da anh htidng sau sac tdi Pryor. Pryor cam thay hoang sp k h i n g h i den viec dat mang song ctia m i n h vao tay cua hai vien p h i cong xa la. Trtidc k h i len may bay, dng thtidng b i dau da 410

Cai duoi dai marketing day va ong da phai danh phan l d n t h d i gian t r e n chuyen bay tram t u va nam chat tay trong t u i quan vol tam trang sd hai. Sau dd dng gap mdt p h i cong ciia hang hang khdng Delta Ahlines. Pryor hdi vien phi cong nay ve chi tiet chuyen bay ciia may bay phan luc, cd bao nhieu he thong ctiu t r d dupe trang b i va may bay se b i rdi trong trudng hop nao. Cuoc noi chuyen da cd tac dung. Khi da hieu suy nghi ciia vien p h i cong do, ong da hieu ve do an toan ciia cac chuyen bay. Tdi gQi dd la su m i n h bach trong hoat ddng - ban cang hieu biet bao nhieu ve viec m d t he thong hoat ddng n h u the nao, t h i ban cang t t i t i n k h i d trong he thong dd. Day cung la nguyen ly ma United Airlines da suy nghi khi hang nay quyet d i n h de cho hanh khach nghe nhting

CUQC

trao doi gitia khoang chi huy ciia may bay

va tram mat dat d kenh 9 trong he thong am thanh ciia may bay. Neu may bay gap phai viing khdng k h i loang, ban cd the nghe thay p h i cong va t r a m k i e m soat khdng l u u n d i chuyen vdi nhau ve van de dd va se cam thay an tam ve mtic dd b i n h thtidng cua cuoc ndi chuyen tren. Pryor suy n g h i xem lieu phtidng phap tren cd the giup m p i ngtidi hieu hon ve Microsoft hay khdng. Neu dng cd the tao dieu kien de dang hdn cho cac nha lap t r i n h ben ngoai hieu dtidc cong viec ciia cac ky sti Microsoft - l a m cho qua t r i n h hoat dong ciia cong ty m i n h bach h d n - t h i ho se bdt lo ngai ve Microsoft. 411

CAI DUOI DAl Thang 12 nam 2003, Pryor da t r i n h bay y tudng do vdi Vic Gundotra, Tong dieu hanh p h u trach quan he vol cac ky stf lap trinh. Pryor thiia nhan, do la mot chut lieu linh. Ong da noi vol phong vien Fred Voglestein ciia tap chi Wired rang "Toi da dtia van de nay ra trong tat ca cac cuoc hpi thao dtipc dtia len truyen hinh. Toi m u o n cong khai cac tieu chuan ky thuat phan mem cua Microsoft - hoan toan ap dung ma nguon md. Vic da ndi vdi t d i can than trong h o n nhting ong thich y ttiting dd". Gundotra da cho ong hai thang va 20 nghin dola de thtic hien y ttiting dd. Pryor da lap m p t n h o m gom nam ngtidi g6m ca ong ta, vdi may quay d c h i dp t u dpng de phong van cac ky sti ve nghe nghiep va san pham ctia hp. Y ttiting ciia ong la dtia cac clip - n i do va hau n h t i khong chinh stia - len mang ma tat ca m p i ngtidi trong va ngoai cong ty cd the xem va b i n h luan. Thoat dau, diยงu nay nghe co ve ngtipc ddi. Lam t h ยง nao ma Pryor co the vtipt mat nhiing luat sti, nhan vien PR, cac nha q u a n l y va d p i n g u q u a n g cao ciia Microsoft nhti vay? Dieu gi xay ra neu Kenh so 9 vo tinh lam Id sd htiu ban quyen dtipc viet tren bang trang d cong ty? Dieu gi xay ra neu mpt doi ttipng cam thay boi r o i trtidc may quay va n d i nhirng thdng t i n khong nen ndi? Con viec mdt ky sti gioi xuat hien trong bp dang ciia m p t tay gan dd? Kenh so 9 da dtipc phat n i ngay 6 thang 4 nam 2004 va hai dieu da lap ttic t r d nen r d rang: Sp lo sp ciia cac luat sti, nha lam quang cao, co van PR da t r d thanh thuc te - va dieu nay cd l p i cho cong ty. Mpt trong 412

Cai duoi dai marketing nhiing video dau tien dtidc dtia len Kenh so 9, m o t cuoc phong van nha nghien ciiu Bill Hill, la v i du hoan hao. Le ra Hill can phai chai toe va cao rau. Cau tra 161 ctia ong ta la "He dieu hanh Windows khong phai la he dieu hanh quan trong nhat" da di chech chti de. Ong ta noi vol cac nha viet chtiong trinh: Con ngtitii, chti khong phai phan mem, mdi la nhting cau true hoat dong quan trong. Cuoc phong van do co ve lap d i va dang suy nghi, ro rang khong phai la t h t i ma doi ngti PR thong qua, cang khong phai la t h t i ma ho san xuat. Nhting no da t h u htit dtiOc sii quan tam l d n va hien van la mot trong nhting video dtiOc xem nhieu nhat tren mang. Mot email giii den ngtidi p h u trach marketing trong bo phan Windows da viet: "Ai noi vdi dng la dng cd the lam viec dd? Tdi muon gap Pho Chti tich ctia dng". Mot luat sti ndi; "Mot so thdng t i n cua chp dd khdng dung. Ong cd nghi la cac cd ddng se kien chiing ta ve dieu do hay khdng?". Sau dd da dien ra hang chuc cuoc cai va d sanh ciia cong ty: Mot ngtidi trong ddi PR da chan Pryor lai va h d i "Ong n g h i dng la ai?". Nhting cap tren ciia Pryor lai ting ho dng ta va ke hoach do tiep tuc dtidc trien khai. Trang mang ciia Pryor dac biet dtidc cac nhan vien ciia cong t y quan tam. Nhting chinh dich v u ket n d i nhanh vol n h o m khach hang muc tieu - la cac nha viet phan m e m doc lap - da gitip Kenh sd 9 t o n tai. Vao cuoi ngay t h t i nhat, sti lan truyen tren mang da keo 100 n g h i n ngtidi xem. Ntia n a m sau, sd ngtidi x e m la 413

CAI DUOI DAI 1,2 trieu/thang. Ngay nay, Kenh so 9 da co gan 4,5 trieu ngudi xem hang thang. No da dua len mang 1.500 doan video chp. Ban cd the da tting nghe n o i ve Robert Scoble, mpt blogger cua Microsoft da t r d thanh nhan vat nd'i tieng tren mang, ngtidi da l o i keo cac ky sti viet phan mem bang each dtia len mang nhting bai viet trung thuc va thang than ve sep ctia anh ta. (Anh ta da chuyen t d i lam viec cho mpt cong ty m d i thanh lap chuyen dtia ndi dung len mang nam 2006). Nhting Scoble la gtiOng mat dtipc biet d i n nhieu nhat trong cupc each mang ve t i n h m i n h bach cua Kenh so 9 tai Microsoft. Tren thtic te, cong ty co 71 nghin nhan vien nay hien cd hon 4.500 blogger dtia len mang c i c chti de ve cong nghe, tU cac phan mem mdi den SQL. Mpt trong so dd la Larry Hryb, giam doc chtiting t r i n h LIVE's Xbox, ngtidi dtia len mang 2-3 bai viet/ngay dtitii btit danh Thieu ta Nelson va dtia len mang cac doan clip h i n g tuan. Nhting bai viet cua anh ta da bien each PR truyen thong t r d nen lac hau. Neu ban m u o n xem nhting thdng t i n xac thtic va cap nhat nhat lien quan den he thong t r d choi cua Microsoft, t h i blog cua Thieu ta Nelson la mpt dia chi d i e hfc. Ngay nay, Microsoft da t r d thanh cong ty co tinh dpc quyen g i i m di va van do hai ngtidi khdng i d lanh dao, song vai t r d cua hang nghin ngtidi gidng n h t i chung ta da tang len. Bat cti s i n pham nao cua Microsoft ma ban sti dung hay quan tam den l u o n dtipc thdng t i n cong khai do mpt ky sti hoac nhan vien q u i n ly s i n 414

Cai duoi dai marketing pham p h u trach. Mac du khong ai co duoc so doc gia ldn n h u Scoble trudc day nhung chat lupng ciia cac cuoc d o i thoai da cd su cai thien do cong ty da chii y hon den cac san pham ngach. Toi tinh cd de y den phan m e m am nhac va video ciia Microsoft Media Center va t d i da truy cap vao mdt so blog ciia manh vien ciia trung tam dd. Mdt bai viet dien hinh dang tren nhUng blog dd thudng ke lai cupc ttanh luan ndi bp ciia Microsoft ve viec l a m the nao de dua ra mdt album k h i khong cd h i n h m i n h hpa bia: heu cd nen sii dung cd chU tuong d d i gidng nhau hay chieu rdng album cd d m h de giU cho toan bo "gia de dia" co tinh ddng nhat hon? Dd chi la van de n h d va khdng phai la chii de quan t a m ciia dai da sd khach hang ciia Microsoft nhung la van de t o i quan tam. K h i san pham cuoi cung ra ddi va cd dau an ciia tdi, t d i se cam thay cd su gan b d va t i n h cam cua m i n h v d i Microsoft tang len so v d i nhUng gi t o i van cam nhan ve p h l n m e m ciia Microsoft. Microsoft thudng van dua vao cac hoat ddng PR r a m rd de giti uy t i n ciia cong ty nay. Gid day, no da chuyen cong viec dd cho cac nhan vien ciia cong ty. Vay t h i bp phan PR se la m gi? Vai t r d truyen thdng ciia PR la giii thdng t i n cho bao chi se van tiep tuc cho den k h i bao chi con ton tai. Vay t h i Cdi dudi ddi ve bao chi t h i sao - n h i i n g luc ludng cd anh hudng m d i , t t i bao chi trong l i n h vuc chuyen sau n h t i Techcrunch va Gizmodo t d i cac blogger? Tiep theo la vai t r d ctia cac nha tap hpp xa h p i ve thdng t i n 415

CAI DUOI DAI rihti Digg va Reddit (ma tap chi Wired ciia chiing t o i sd him)? The gidi ciia hp la n o i m a h i n h thiic quang cao co siic manh nhat - sii truyen mieng - bat dau, nhung hau het trong so ho khdng m u o n nghe m o t ca nhan l a m PR. DUa len blog co t i n h xac thiic va mang tinh ca nhan, khdng phai la cong viec duoc tra luong. Nhieu blogger dudng n h u khdng thich each tuyen truyen san p h a m ciia cac chuyen gia PR sieu pham thuc su, va chong lai cac nhan vien bao chi dang t i m each khai thac trang Digg ma khdng tiet Id rang anh ta hoac cd ta dtidc tra tiยงn de l a m dieu dd. Vay bay gid ban hay tudng ttiting ntinh la nhan vien PR chuyen nghiep. Ban se l a m gi? Bam lay nhting gi dang co va tiep tuc gqi dien, g i h t h t i cho cac t d bao truyen thong (co l a m n h t i khdng hieu rang vai t r d ciia chiing dang giam xuong va anh htidng dang mat di)? Gih t h t i rac den cac blogger va chd d p i dieu tot dep nhat? Hay la coi cac blogger co anh htidng giong nhti bao chi truyen thong va bo qua cac phtidng tien truyen thdng khac? T d i da chting kien ca ba each l a m tren va trong vai trtidng hdp da dat dtipc thanh cong han che. Mac d i i cd sU bat dong ve phuong phap song r d rang la co rat nhieu blogger khdng ngai d o i thoai vdi cac nhan vien PR, mien la dtitii h i n h thtic email hay b i n h luan, phan anh viec cac nhan vien bao chi da dpc blog va hieu dtipc n p i dung cua nd. NhUng cong ty n h u Microsoft va Sun dang chuyen dd'i chien ltipc PR theo htidng dac 416

Cai duoi dai marketing bi$t chii y den cac blogger, m d i hp t d i cac cuoc hop bao va cho phep ho tiep can cac san pham sap dua ra thi trudng. Tuy nhien, ve ban chat t h i truyen thdng xa hdi la phuong tien truyen t i n ngang cap; cac blogger m u o n nghe thdng t i n t t i ai dd l a m ra san pham tot, h d n la t t i nhting dai dien cong ty dtidc tra luting. Van de la nhting ngtidi lam ra san pham tot thtidng ban ron, do dd ho tra lifting cho nhan vien PR de tiep can vdi ben ngoai. Tdi t t i hoi khdng biet heu giai phap cho van de nay la nang cap vai t r d cua PR t t i p h u trach quan he v d i ben ngoai, sang p h u t r a c h quan he ben t r o n g , t t i thdng t i n cho ben ngoai sang htidng dan nhan vien ve viec l a m sao de quang ba h i n h anh cua cong t y cd hieu qua nhat. Sau day la nhting viec phai l a m doi v d i viec giao due ben trong cong ty: •

A i la ngtidi cd anh htidng den chting ta (va l a m the nao biet dieu dd).

•

Dieu g i / a i anh htidng den ho.

•

Lam the nao de t h u hut sti quan tam tren mang.

•

Lam the nao de blog cd hieu qua.

•

Sti dung beta-test

invite list n h t i m o t each quang

cao. •

Nghe thuat x i n dtidng l i n k .

•

Quang cao, cac cuoc t h i , meo quang cao, ban htidng dan va cac l i n k dung de d u do.

417

CAI BUOI DAI โ ข

Chia se chit khdng

phdi Id chia se qua

nhieu;

Chung ta da n o i den viec khach hang can phai biet ban dang l a m gi va k h i nao. Nha quang cao chuyen nghiep Abigail da mieu ta su thay ddi tren n h u sau: "Theo nghia nao do, Cdi duoi ddi da dua chung ta trd" lai nhting nguyen tac co ban nhat trong giao tiep gitia ngtidi v d i ngtidi: tting diยงn ra n h t i vay trtidc k h i truyen thdng va cac phuong tien thdng t i n dai chiing t r d thanh each duy nhat de biยงn ngon ngti ve mdt sti vat thanh ngon ngti dtipc truyen tai. Bdi v i dd la m p t sp phat trien mang t i n h tien hda va ngtidi ta khdng danh nhieu thdi gian de thdi phong, nen su that ve mdt san pham thtidng chi dtipc bpc Id d t h i trtidng". Vay la chiing ta vtia n o i ve chii de chinh la quang cao tren mang. Tuy nhien, viec chting kien su v d v u n ve van hoa va sp h i n h thanh cac nhanh van hda dinh h i n h tac dpng ctia the gidi tren mang ddi v d i the gidi thuc te cung rat t h u vi. Khdng lau trudc day, Berkeley, California, noi t d i song (mac d i i t d i khdng co cam tinh vdi nhting t h t i van hda kich dpng i d i song lap di, i d i song cua nhting nam 60 hoac su sting bai t a m ntitic nong cong cpngj chinh la n o i h i n h hanh cac h i n h thtic van hda ngach. Dd la noi con ngtidi thoat khdi the gidi ctia nhting san p h a m hit va khdng b i chting chi phdi. Tuy nhien, ngay nay, nhting phong trao d i t i m thtic an nau theo kieu thti cong, dtd cd ddng co da nhien heu, nhting khach hang bao ve m d i trtidng va nhting doanh

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Cai duoi dai marketing nghiep huong ve nen bo xa hoi - tat ca co nguon gdc n i nhiing dia diem phan-van hoa n h u Berkeley - dang lam thay ddi bUc tranh tieu dting, n i he thdng Wal-Mart den cac chuong trinh truyen h i n h gid cao diem. Lay sdcdla lam v i du. TU Thuy Si den Hershey , chac 1

chan la tat ca m p i thU co the sti dung de tao ra t h i trudng m d i cho hat cacao da duoc khai thac. Tuy nhien, each day khdng lau, dieu tuong t u da dupe ndi den ddi vol mdt loai hat khac ma chting ta phai tra cho Starbucks 3 dola vao m d i budi sang. Chting ta khdng bao gid dupe danh gia thap sUc manh ctia nhiing t h i trudng sieu nho ddi v o l nhiing thU ma trudc day dupe cho la chi t o n tai dudi mpt h i n h thUc. Ngay nay, sdcdla dang nhanh chong t r d thanh mdt loai ca phe m d i . Hoac thanh rtipu m d i . Bia mdi. Banh m i m d i . Che m d i . Hay dau d h u m d i . Tat ca cac mat hang tren da dupe p h i t h i trudng hoa k h i mpt nha kinh doanh nao do nhan ra rang dang cd mpt t h i trudng ldn d phan sau ctia Cdi dudi ddi. Dieu dd xay ra k h i nhiing khach hang giau cd nhat vol khau v i tinh te nhat xuat hien, chd d p i m d t nha k i n h doanh nhan ra rang cd n h u cau tiem an ddi vol san pham khong thupc loai thdng thudng danh cho tat ca m p i ngudi. Tdi da t h a m cong ty TCHO, m p t cong ty san xuat sdcdla bang t h t i cong m d i dupe thanh lap de kiem nghiem nhan d i n h tren. Dieu dau tien hp noi vol t o i la nhUng sd lieu gay ngac nhien ve t h i trudng sdcdla Cdi 1 Hang san xuat socola ldn nhat nude My. 419

CAl DUOI DAl dudi ddi. Tai My, t h i trudng socola nhin. chung i t co su tang trtidng, vol doanh so ban ra khong tang nhanh hon dan so va l a m phat. Tuy nhien, socola "thuong hang" co toe dp tang trudng 16%/nam. Trong dong "thupng hang", co mpt vai san pham co toe dp tang trudng con cao hon. Socola hiiu co tang trtidng 70%/ n a m va loai "thtiOng m a i cong bang " tang trtidng 1

khoang 2 nghin%/nam (mac dti xuat phat t t i doanh so rat nhd). Khach hang ctia cac san pham ngach socola dang di theo Id t r i n h dupe dat ra b d i nhting nha san xuSt ca phe trtidc day. Thay v i m u a mdt dong socola, sau dd pha che va dong hop n h t i phan l d n cac cong ty khac trong l i n h vtic nay (bi cac nha san xuat sdcdla t h u cong gpi mdt each nhao bang la nhiing "ngtidi nau lai" socola), hp lai mua hat n i mpt noi, sau dd theo ddi hanh t r i n h ctia nd, t t i khau van chuyen den len men, say k h d va nghien thanh bpt. Khi ban mua m d t thanh TCHO, ban se thay cd m p t so hieu tren dd ma ban cd the t i m nd tren mang Google Earth de thay nhiing luong hat l a m nen thanh sdcdla nay t t i m p t k h u rupng, den kho giti hang. Tai m o i chang dting chan cua nd, ban cd the thay h i n h anh ve quy t r i n h san xuat va ngtidi san xuat. Cac me hang khdng giong nhau, bao gom sti pha t r o n khac nhau cua nguyen lieu, phtiOng tien 1

Nguyen ban tieng Anh la Fair Trade, la mot trao luu hien nay d cac nude phat trien tren the gidi, chi mua hang nhap td cac nude ngheo vol dam bao rang ngudi san xuat dupe doi xd cong bang, khong bi boc lot sue lao dpng. 420

Cai duoi dai marketing va qua trinh che bien. Doi vol khach hang quan tam den dieu do, thong t i n n h u vay luon co san tren mang. Do qua la sp toan cau hoa den rung loai thtic an. Thong t i n luon co gia tri. Moi ngtidi se tra them tien de biet thtic an cua hp dtipc cung cap t t i dau, nham hieu chac c h i n ve chat ltipng cung nhti sti thinh vtipng cua nhting cong nhan s i n x u i t . Nhting hang hoa nao khac cd the dtipc p h i t h i trtidng hoa theo each tren? Theo nghia nao dd, sti nd'i len cua cac s i n pham nong nghiep htiu co, che tao bang tay hay ttiong tti nhti "thu cong" dang d i n chting ta quay t r d lai thdi ky trtidc day ctia nhting ngtidi ndng dan dia phtiOng, s i n x u i t bang tay va k y nang truyen thong. Vay t h i tai sao chting lai la mpt phan trong qua t r i n h chuyen dich van hoa do cong nghe chi phoi trong the ky 21? Bdi v i chung phan anh qua trinh t r d lai cua cac s i n pham ngach. Den ltipt nd, qua t r i n h nay lai b i t nguon t t i hang loat chan ly hien nhien ve van hda cua the gidi p h i t trien: giau cd (cac san pham ngach thtidng cd chi p h i cao hon), khau vi ngay cang tinh te va hieu biet, cd sti trung hda, tham chi cd x u htidng da dang hda, va cac kenh phan phoi (nhti Whole Foods den Starbucks) cd k h i nang cung c i p da dang s i n p h a m horn b i t cti t h d i ky nao trong lich sti. Sau dd la sti xuat hien ciia cac trang web. Khdng ke den viec chung cd vai t r d n h t i la m p t t h i trtidng s i n pham, thay vao dd, hay n g h i den nd n h t i mpt n o i bay td quan diem. Hien tai t h i hau het cac s i n pham dtipc

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CAl DUOI DAI ban khong qua mang, giong nhu* trudc day. Tuy nhien, trong nhting nam tdi, se co ngay cang nhieu san pham dtidc quang cao tren mang, khai thac Idi the cua cac cong cu tren mang de nhan biet cac n h o m nhd khach hang va tac ddng den sti lan truyen bang mieng mot each cd hieu qua hon bat cti thdi ky nao trong lich sti. Khdng phai tat ca cac nganh cong nghiep deu cd sif da dang vd tan ve san pham, song tat ca cac nganh cong nghiep deu co sti da dang vo tan ve khach hang. Cuoi cung, chting ta co the ting x t i vdi ho nhti nhting ca nhan rieng biet. Dd la bud'i hoang hdn ciia nhting doan quang cao keo dai 30 giay tren truyen hinh.

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Doan cuoi

CAl DUOI

CUA TLfdNG LAI

Voi khoang 5 nghin dola, ban co the mua mot chiec may co ten May i n Desktop Factory 3D. Do la mot chiec may de ban dep, mac d u van con hoi dat. Tuy nhien, gia ca dang giam nhanh giong n h u gia nhiing chiec may i n laser mot thap ky trtidc day. Chinh nhting cong nghe mdi dang lam thang hoa t r i ttiting ttigmg. Han cac ban con n h d cau chuyen ve Nha may LEGO, noi ban co the thiet ke mau, dtia len mang va tat ca do dac se dtidc giao trong vong m o t den 2 man. Gid day ban cd the khdng phai chd dai de nhan hang ntia. May in 3D la mot nha may trong gia dinh, cd the san xuat ra nhieu t h t i vdi kich cd khac nhau. Mot ngay nao dd, loai may in nay se thdng dung n h t i may i n mtic va khdng qua dat. Chting ta hay n g h i xem dieu dd se ra sao. May i n 3D hien nay cd nhieu loai, nhting loai thdng dung nhat sti dung m o t tia laser de bien ddng nhtia long hay bot t r d thanh nhtia ciing theo bat cti hinh thti nao ma ban m u o n . Chi can dtia m o t tep d t i lieu vat ba chieu, n h t i m o t chtiting t r i n h CAD, hay tham chi tep

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CAl DUOI DAI d t i lieu anh cua mot nhan vat trong phim, tia laser se giup tao ra hinh a n h Tung lop, ning lop mot, mot phien ban bang nhtia hoan hao ctia vat the se n i t t i 16 ra. May i n Desktop Factory 3D co the chuyen d t i heu thanh vat the ngay trong ngoi nha ctia ban. Do la cong nghe san xuat tan tien nhat ctia Cdi dudi ddi do vat. Khi may i n 3D co the sti dung chat lieu khac ngoai nhua, n h u k i m loai hay thiiy tinh, chung ta co the t u san xuat p h u ning, do choi va co the ca mot chiec may ma chiing ta tai xuong t t i mot ngtidi ban hang tren mang. Chung ta da lam duoc dieu do doi vol san pham so: ban co the chon each de nhan duoc t t i Amazon phan mem ve thue trong vong mtitii ngay, hay don gian hon la tai phan m e m nay n i tren mang xuong va sti dung dtidc ngay. Nhting dich v u khac ciing cho ban sti lira chon ttiong tti: nhan dia CD vao m a n t d i hay tai phan m e m bai hat ngay lap ttic. Mot ngay nao do, dieu nay se dtidc m d rdng d o i v d i hang hda vat the. Ban co the i n anh d nha h d m nay; ban co the i n khung anh d nha trong ttiong lai. Ban co the da h i n h dung ra dtidc vien canh dd. Nha thiet ke video game huyen thoai Will Wright dang hoan tat cong doan cuoi ciing ctia game tiep theo ctia ong ta co ten Spore. Trong game nay, ban co the thiet ke nhan vat ctia rieng ban, t u trang t r i va nhan each hoa nhan vat ciia ban. Neu ban hai long ve tac p h a m cua m i n h , ban co the tai no len mang Spore. Sau do, chi mat khoang 20 dola, ban co the i n 3D nhan vat ciia ban n h u that - ve m a u sac, chai lieu... M o i nhan 424

Cai duoi ciia tuong lai vat do co t i n h doc nhat va se dung d ctia trudc nha ban mpt hai m a n niia. Hay nghi ve dieu do n h u Cdi dudi ddi trong b u o n ban va m p t y tudng tao bao ve tudng lai. Giong n h u tat ca m p i thU, Cdi dudi ddi ctia mong lai se dai ra, dupe l u u t r t i dudi dang dU lieu va dupe chuyen den nha ban bang cap quang. Sau do, no se dupe hien thuc hda, t r d thanh vat the hoan chinh de sti dpng ngay k h i can. Dieu nay nghe giong khoa hpc vien tudng, nhung nd ciing giong n h u viec chiing ta muon cd ca m p t t h u vien am nhac bd t u i each day chi mpt thap nien. Trong the gidi giai t r i va thdng tin, chiing ta da vuot qua rao can ciia gia sach va kenh truyen, cung nhu khong con b i chi p h o i b d l m p t h i n h thUc giai t r i danh cho tat ca m p i ngudi n h u trUtic day nUa. Khong lau nUa, chiing ta cd the se vupt qua rao can trong san xuat hang loat. Sp bung n d ma chiing ta da chting kien trong van hda n h d k y thuat sd se keo theo sp bung nd trong cac l i n h vuc khac ctia ddi song. Cau hdi ctia ngay mai se khdng phai la lieu rang nhieu sti hia chpn se la tot hdn, ma se la chting ta thtic sp mudn gi? Trong the 1

gidi v d tan, m p i t h t i deu cd the xay ra.

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CAI DUOI DAI

LOfI B A T

Trong nhting thang sau k h i cuon sach Cdi dudi ddi duoc xuat ban lan dau tien, co hai su kien dang n h d da xay ra. ThU nhat (va that ngac nhien doi v d i m o t cuon sach viet ve quyen luc cua san pham ngach), no da t r d thanh cuon sach ban chay nhat, nam trong danh sach m u d i cuon sach ban chay nhat ctia Thai bdo New York va la cuon sach p h i h u cau ban chay nhat tai Trung Quoc. Nhung dieu quan trong h o n la no duoc doc va phan anh trong cac nganh cong nghiep m a t d i chua bao gid coi la doi tuong cua t h i trudng Cdi dudi ddi. Hang t r a m doc gia da viet cho t o i de mieu ta Cdi dudi ddi dang co mat d m o i noi, t t i cong dong Cong giao (Giao due tai gia cua Cong giao la Cdi dudi ddi ve giao due!) den sach bao khieu dam (cd the dd la v i d u xac dang nhat ve t h i hieu da dang ciia cpng dong dan so, nhting toi se de dieu nay cho ngtidi khac binh luan). Tdi thtidng xuyen dtipc hdi ve nhting v i dp lien quan den tac dpng ctia Cdi dudi ddi ben ngoai l i n h vtic k y thuat so trong truyen thdng va giai t r i . Trong nhting chtiting dau ctia cuon sach, t d i da dtia ra nhting v i dp, t t i eBay den LEGO, nhting dpc gia m u o n biet heu x u the v d v u n ciia t h j trtidng va viec khach hang yeu cau cac san p h a m ngach cd dien ra trong nganh ban le

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Cai duoi cua tuong lai truyen thong va hang hoa dong goi hay khong. Cau tra l o i la co, mac du khong dien ra mot each manh me n h u trong l m h vuc ky thuat so, n o i k i n h tยง hoc phan p h o i dang thay d d i v o l tdc do nhanh nhat. Linh vuc thoi trang la m p t v i d u dien hinh, gdm cac san pham ngach dang ban tren t h i trudng n h u cac ctia hang nho va trang phuc sang trpng (tao ra x u the tai phan Dau Ngan trong nganh ban le truyen thdng) den nhting san p h a m m d i n h t i trang phuc cd dien (eBay la nha ban le ltin nhat ve the loai nay) va nhting chiec ao phong t t i may tren cac trang n h t i Threadless.com. D u lich la m p t v i dp ntia. Sti bung n d cua cac hang hang khdng gia re d i tien phong bdl easyjet va Ryanair da lam giam dang ke chi p h i d i lai cua hang trieu ngtidi tdi cac thanh p h d va k h u vuc ben ngoai cac tour du lich chu dao, t t i Dong A u den nhting thanh phd va t h i trail n h d d Tay A u . Mpt l i n h vuc ntia can n d i den la t h i trudng am thuc htiu cti va "lam t h u cong" da bat dau nhti mdt t h i trtidng am thuc nhanh tai nhting n d i nhti Berkeley ctia tdi va phong trao Slow Food d vting que Italia, gid day da t r d thanh t h j trtidng chinh qua kenh phan phdi Whole Foods. Viec Wal-Mart t i m each gom d u stia htiu cd de thoa m a n n h u cau ciia hang trieu khach hang t r u n g l u u d My la m p t v i dp n d i bat ve viec nhting luc ltipng d phan sau Cdi dudi ddi da tham nhap vao Phan Dau n h t i the nao. Mpt trong nhting v i dp tuyet v o l va dang ngac nhien

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CAI DUOI DAl (thtic sti) ve sir m d rpng ciia ly thuyet nay da dien ra nam ngoai trong linh vpc rtipu manh. Cong ty pha che rtipu l d n nhat ctia My la Anheuser-Busch da thanh lap m o t bd phan cd ten la Cung cap r u o u Cdi dudi ddi de ban cac san p h a m r u o u "ngach", t t i "bia t t i che" cho den cac loai r u o u dia phtiOng. Toi da lien he vdi Anheuser-Busch de nghe true tiep giai t h i c h cua Clydesdale ve viec tai sao lai co su chuyen hudng t t i san pham hit den san p h a m ngach trong nganh rtiou. T d i hieu rang Internet dang l a m giam chi p h i phan phoi trong nhieu nganh va cho phep ngtidi tieu dung nhieu sti hia chon hon (tren "gia de hang vd tan") nhting khdng hieu dieu do cd ap dung dtidc doi v d i nhung chiec chai va gia de hang htiu h i n h hay khdng. Pat McGauley, Phd Chti tich ctia Bp phan Cung cap rtidu Cdi dudi ddi da giai thich: viec Anheuser-Busch ban cac loai bia "ngach" khdng phai la do co thay dd'i cd ban ve phan phoi, ma do x u htidng quan tam ngay cang ndi len doi vdi cac san pham ngach trong nen van hda ctia chting ta. Anheuser-Busch cd l p i the dpc dao so v d i cac cong ty ciing l i n h vtic la nd la cong ty dti ldn de kiem soat he thong phan phoi (cac cong ty khac dtipc ben t h t i ba phan phoi, nen kho cd the ban cac san pham ngach), do vay co the thti nghiem nhieu san p h a m h o n cho cac khach hang ngach. Trong mtidi n a m qua, cong ty nay da m d rpng rat nhieu san p h a m bia. Cac loai bia l a n h va do uong 428

Cai duoi ciia tuong lai manh cua cong ty da tang n i con so 26 vao nam 1997 len 80 vao nam 2007. Ngay nay, cong ty nay san xuat bia huU co, dd uong cho p h u nuf va nhieu loai do uong khac n h u Bare Knuckle Stout den ZiegenBock (chi ban ti Texas). Nhung dieu l a m t o i thuc sU ngac nhien la loai bia m o i nhat cua cong ty. De t i m ra rihting loai bia co huong v i dpc dao hon, cong ty nay da dtia ra san pham khong phai la bia htiu co, bia t h u cong, bia cha phtiOng ma la bia danh cho ca ngtidi an kieng. Cuoi nam 2006, n d da dtia r a l o a i b i a k h d n g chtia g l u t e n g o i la Redbridge, dtidc l a m t t i cay hia m i e n thay v i lua m i 1

hay hia mach. Doi lai, loai bia nay cd htiting v i tuyet hao. Hien nay, dang cd nhieu ngtidi quan tam tdi cac san pham khong chtia gluten, vay tai sao khdng san xuat bia nhti the? Tren thtic te, t h i trtidng nay la m p t cti h p i mang tinh cd dien cua Cdi dudi ddi, mot dieu t d i da phat hien ra k h i t d i biet rang n h u cau d d i v o l may htit b u i "ngach" se la robot htit b u i t t i dpng (Roomba) va Dyson cong nghe cao, den may htit cd bp lpc dac biet de htit phan hoa va vay dpng vat. Mpt v i dp khac ve sti xuat hien ciia Cdi dudi ddi la toan cau hda van hda. Trong the thao, t i n nic va giai tri, chung ta dang thay ddi t t i duy, tti viec chi tap trung vao n h i i n g khan gia d m p t k h u vpc d j a ly, den viec 1

Mqt loai ke trong de lam ltfdng thpc d cac vung co khi hau am. 429

CAI BUOI BAI hudng tori nhieu khan gia ti nhieu k h u vtic d j a ly tren the gioi. Mot san pham hit of ntidc nay la san p h a m ngach ti nude khac. Tai Nhat Ban, p h i m hoat h i n h anime va truyen tranh manga la san pham hit, tai My, chung la san p h a m ngach. Telenovelas la san p h a m hit tai My Latin, tai nhUng n o i khac, nd la san p h a m ngach. D o i vdi bong da, nd la san p h a m hit hau n h u d tat ca m o i noi, t r t i My, n o i cac tran dau bong da khong duoc phat tren truyen hinh, t r t i nhting t r a n t r o n g k h u o n k h d World Cup. V i d u ntia la cricket. Day la m o n the thao dtipc yeu thich tai cac nude Khdi Thinh vuong chung va cac ntitic Tieu luc dia ciing n h t i cac ntidc thupc dia cua A n h 1

trtidc day. Tai A n Dp, Pakistan, Uc, N a m Phi, New Zealand va Vtiong quoc Anh, tat ca cac tran dau cricket ldn deu dupe truyen liinh true t i l p . Tai nhting n o i khac, chting gan n h t i khong cd mat. Theo nguyen ly k i n h te ctia truyen hinh, dieu nay co the ly giai dtipc: Ban chi cd the dtia len song nhting n p i dung dtipc cong chting quan tam. Nhting cd hang trieu ngtidi yeu bong chay ben ngoai mpt sd ntidc tren. Hp cung m u d n dtipc xem true tiep (hay ghi h i n h lai) gidng n h t i ngtidi dan tai cac ntidc sd tai. Gid day, nhd six xuat hien cua phuong thtic sao ltiu video tren Web, hp co the x e m n h t i the. Cd khoang 25 trieu ngtidi A n nhap cti, hau het hp d cac ntidc khdng phat m o n cricket tren truyen hinh. Hay 1

Tut tieu luc dia An. 430

Cai duoi cua tuong lai nghi ve ho la Cong dong Cricket Nhap cu, m o t n h o m khan gia co t i e m nang ldn. Dieu tuong t u cung xay ra doi vdi Cong ddng Rugby, Soccer, Sumo Nhap cu, v.v... Sau dd, hay chuyen sang tinh xem n h o m khan gia toan c i u ve cac m o n the thao ciia My: Nhom Bong da Nhap cu, n h o m Bong chay Nhap cu, n h o m Bong r d Nhap cu. Sau dd, hay chuyen sang ITnh vuc tin tire, trd choi truyen hinh, am nhac... Hay x e m dieu dd cd nghia la gi? Ngay nay, k h i ngay cang cd nhieu dai truyen h i n h chuyen t t i cac chuong t r i n h truyen h i n h true tiep sang truyen h i n h tren mang theo yeu cau, chung ta se btitic vao k y nguyen ma cac t h i trtidng phan tan se cd vai trd quan trong n h t i cac t h i trtidng tap trung trtidc day. Video Cdi dudi ddi se hen ket cac cong ddng thdng qua van hda chung ctia ho, ngay ca neu hp chi dtipc coi la van hda ngach trong m d i trtidng ma hp sinh song. Chting ta da chting kien dieu nay vdi sti ndi len cua dai phat thanh tieng Latin tai My; dieu dd se sdm m d rdng t d i cac nen van hda nhap cti khac, tai My va ca tren toan the gidi. Chting ta thtidng nghi ve Cdi dudi ddi n h t i m d t lpc lupng ciia sti phan tan, nhting nd cd the la m d t luc ltipng cua sir hpp nhat trong the gidi von da b i phan tan. Cd the se can m p t quyen sach khac viet ve nhting su viec hen quan den su hien dien da dang va dang ngac nhien ctia Cdi dudi ddi. Nhting dieu dd can phai chd d p i m p t t h d i gian khac va co the mpt tac gia khac. Dieu t d i m u d n n d i trong nhting ddng cudi ciing nay la de cap m p t each ngan gpn nhting hieu l a m p h d bien 431

CAl DUOI DAI nhat ve ly thuyet cua toi, nhiing dieu da hen nic xay ra doi vol cac bai dien thuyet ciia toi sau k h i cuon sach dupe xuat ban lan dau tien. Cho den nay, sp hieu l a m pho bien nhat la Cdi dudi ddi d p bao sp ket thiic ciia ky nguyen hit. Cac san p h a m hit van chiem m o t p h a n ciia dudng n h u cau giong n h u cac san pham ngach. Dieu ket thuc chinh la sU thong tri ciia cac san p h a m hit. Trong thdi gian qua lau, hit va cac san p h a m nham â&#x20AC;˘tdi hit da the hien su thdng tri, b d i v i nhting cong ty htidng t d i cac san pham hit dtipc tiep can kenh phan p h d i ban le va kenh phan n d i chi co chd cho cac san p h a m ban chay. Nhung gid day, cac san p h a m ban chay phai chia t h i phan vdi hang trieu san pham ngach va dieu nay se dan den mpt t h i trtidng rat khac. Hay de t d i giai thich. Ve co ban cd ba loai san p h a m hit ma chting ta co the gpi la Loai 1, 2 va 3. Hai loai dau la san p h a m hit " t t i tren xuong" dtipc san xuat b d i cac cd may tao ra san pham hit truyen thdng ciia cac cong ty ldn, phong t h u thanh, nha xuat ban... Loai t h t i ba la san pham hit " t t i dtidl len" do ngtidi tieu dung tao thanh, mpt t h i trtidng ctia cac san p h a m da dang va cd quyen lpc ngay cang tang. â&#x20AC;˘

Loai 1: San p h a m hit " t t i tren xuong" dac

tiling:

san pham tot va dtipc ddng dao ngtidi tieu dung htidng t d i (nhti Coldplay va World Cup). NhUng san p h a m nay t h u htit dtipc ngtidi tieu diing l d n ngay t t i dau va giU dtipc anh htidng lau. 432

Cai duoi cua tuong lai â&#x20AC;˘

Loai 2: San pham hit tong hop " t t i tren xuong"; nhung san pham khong hoan hao dupe quang ba mot phan npi dung, thanh cong trong viec thu htit nhieu khach hang mac d i i hp co the khong thich (nhP Garfield: A Tail of Two Kitties). Nhiing san p h a m nay t h u htit dPpc nhieu khach hang k h i tung ra nhung so lupng ngudi dung nhanh chong giam.

â&#x20AC;˘

Loai 3: san p h a m hit " t t i dtidi len", xuat hien do su truyen mieng va dupe ngtidi tieu dung ung ho (nhti Clap Your Hands Say Yeah hay March of the Penguins).

NhUng san pham nay khong thu

htit dtipc ngtidi tieu dung k h i dtia ra nhting ngay cang cd nhieu khach hang. Tdi cho rang san pham hit loai 1 se tiep tuc cd vai trd ldn. Loai 3 tham chi con cd vai trd ldn hon, do web rhi'nh la ltic ltipng khuech dai sti truyen mieng ldn nhat ctia chting ta. Nhting loai 2 se giam xuong do ngtidi tieu dung truyen t i n ve sti yeu kem ctia nd nhanh hon bao gid het. Dieu rut ra d day la: Trong mpt the gidi Cdi dudi ddi, nhieu san pham hit " t t i tren xuong" se giam anh htidng va n h t i n g san p h a m hit " t t i d t i d i len" se tang anh htidng. Dieu dd khdng cd nghia la sti ket thtic cua cac san p h a m hit - nd la sti nd'i len ctia mdt loai hit mdi. Mdt cau h d i khac la lieu ly thuyet Cdi dudi ddi cd nghia la cac nha san xuat vd danh se cd hy vpng t r d nen giau cd. Dang tiec la cau tra Idi la: khdng don gian n h t i the. 433

CAI DUOI DAI T h i i nhat, hay xem ly thuyet cua t o i thiic sii da n o i gi. Npi dung cot l o i cua no co hai phan: (A) Neu ban co the giam dang ke chi p h i san xuat va phan p h o i t h i ban co the san xuat nhieu hon dang ke cac mat hang; (B) Trong b o i canh co nhieu mat hang va nhieu cong cu sap xep de dang cac mat hang do de dap ling n h u cau ciia cac ca nhan t h i ngtidi tieu diing se tieu diing ngay cang nhieu hon cac mat hang da dang theo sd thich ca nhan, hon la cac mat hang giong nhau n h u trudc day. Ve co ban, co ba loai doi ttiting tham gia vao t h i trtidng Cdi duoi ddi: khach hang, cac nha tap hdp va nha san xuat (can chti y rang ban cd the t r d thanh ca ba doi ttiong tren b d i v i chung khdng he khdng ttiong thich v d i nhau). â&#x20AC;˘ Nguoi tieu dung. Tac dpng: chti yeu ve van hda. Hp co nhieu liia chpn htin, do v | y se cd nhieu sd thich ca nhan hdn dtipc dap ting mac dti tac dpng ctia vi?c nay la sti xuat hien ctia van hda ngay cang b i chia nhd. â&#x20AC;˘

Cac nha tap h p p . Tac dpng: chu yeu ve k i n h te. Chtia bao gid viec lien ket cac hang hda da dang va tao ra cac cong cu de to' chtic chting, t t i cong cu t i m kiem den khuyen nghi cua ngtidi tieu dung, lai de dang n h t i bay gid. Cac mat hang da dang va n h u cau da dang dong nghia v d i cd h p i . Ciing can ltiu y rang, giong n h t i se khdng cd m p t san pham nao p h u hpp vdi tat ca m p i ngtidi, ciing

434

Cai duoi cua tuong lai khong co mot nha tap hop nao dap ung dtiOc tat ca n h u cau t i m kiem. Toi cho rang nhung v i du theo kieu dtidc-an-ca n h u eBay, Amazon, iTunes va Google la nhUng hien mong ban dau. NhUng nha tap hop doi vdi cac san pham chuyen bi§t (nhu t i m kiem theo hang doc cua dich v u bat dong san Zillow) se tang len. •

Cac n h a san xuat. Tac dong: chti yeu p h i k i n h te. Doi v o l cac nha san xuat, ltii ich ctia Cdi dudi ddi khong hoan toan tao ra t h u nhap true tiep. Moi trang blog trung binh ciia Google Adsense se mang lai loi ich rat nho va m6i kenh n e n MySpace se khong ban dti dia Cdi duoi ddi de tra d i i chi p h i ghi dia, chU chua noi gi den chi p h i tra luong. NhUng kha nang tap hop nhting kenh nho be n h t i the se co y nghia khac. Mot blog se la cong cu mang tinh ca nhan rat ldn, hen quan den nhieu thti, t t i cung cap vi£c lam den cac hop dong t t i van. Hau het cac kenh cua MySpace nham Idi keo khan gia t d i cac cuoc bieu dien trtic tiep, la muc tieu ma hau het cac ban nhac htidng tdi. T t i quan diem k i n h te p h i tien te dtia tren uy tin, Cdi duoi ddi la ndi chao ddn nhieu cti dan den sinh song h d n ntia.

Doi vdi mot blogger hay mot nha xuat ban nhd, Cdi duoi ddi khdng mang lai sti giau cd. Neu nhting gi ban dang l a m mang lai gia t r i , no se mang den cho ban sti chti y hdn, danh tieng h o n va nhieu ngtidi biet ve san

435

CAI DUOI DAl pham ciia ban hem. Nhung viec chuyen nhung nguon luc p h i tien te do trai thanh tien lai tuy thupc vao ban, va m o i ngtidi co each rieng de l a m dieu do. Doi vdi nhieu ngtidi, dtipc ton trpng thtidng la du de thoa man hp. Nhung dieu quan trpng la ky vpng dung mtic. Cdi dudi ddi khong xoa bo dtipc sti vd danh ma chi giam thieu nd. Nhting doi vdi hau het chung ta, nhting ngtidi song, lam viec va vui choi trong the gidi dudi, t h i sti thay ddi ve van hoa theo htidng nhting sd thich thieu sd da va dang mang lai nen van hda nang dpng va giau co hon. Lam each nao va k h i nao lpi nhuan den t t i nen van hda do se la hien thtic ctia vai thap nien t d i .

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"Cdi dudi ddi l i mpt trong nhiing cuon sich gay chu y nhat trong nam." — BusinessWeek "Trong tic pham rat dang doc nay, Anderson da dua ra mot 16 trinh cho tuong lai ciia nganh thuong mai, mot 16 trinh cd the se lam sing td ban khoan cua nhieu ngudi - ca ngudi bin hang va khich hang." — The Plain Dealer "Cong nghe vi Internet dang bien the gidi trd nen nhd hon v i ket noi hon. Cdi dudi dai l i cuon sich dau tien giai thi'ch chinh xic ve kha ning tiep can cic thi trudng ngich se tao ra co hoi ldn nhu the nao." — Terry Semel, CEO, Yahoo!

T r o n g cuon sach ve k i n h doanh quan trong nhat sau cuon sich The Tipping Point, Chris Anderson da chi ra r i n g tai sao tuong lai cua thuong mai va van hda khong phai chay theo nhung san pham hit, ma con cd nhung t h i i tudng nhu bi quen lang —

Cdi dudi dai vo ttin ciia nhiing san

pham ngach tren dudng cong nhu cau.

"Cuon sach nay xiing dang d tren gia sach cung vdi cac cuon sach The Tipping Point va Freakonomics. " — Reed 1 Listings, CEO, Netflix

"Nhan quan ciia Anderson tiep tuc co anh hudng sau sac den tu duy chien luqc cua Google." — Eric Schmidt, CEO, Google

"Bat cti ai quan tam den truyen thong - dung ra la bat cii ai quan tam den xa hoi cua chung ta va tuong lai can phai doc cuon sach nay." Kol> Glaser, CEO, RealNetworks

THE LONG TAIL. Copyright 0 2006, 2008 Chris Anderson. Nha xuat ban Tre doc quyen xuat ban bin tieng Vi^ttheo Hop dong nhuong quyen thdng qua Brockman Inc., thang 9-2006,

CSI dudl dii Gia: 84.000 d