Recession and the Implications for Grand Strand Tourism: Summer Update Myrtle Beach Area Chamber of Commerce July 9, 2009
Dr. Don Schunk Research Economist BB&T Center for Economic & Community Development Coastal Carolina University
SC Total Employment Jan 1990 – May 2009 June 2000: 1,883,300 jobs
May 2009: 1,852,000 jobs
Job Growth, S.C. & U.S. Jan. 1940 – May 2009
Unemployment Rates, May 2009
Headwinds Affecting Consumer Spending
U.S. Labor Market Indicators Jan. 1976 – June 2009
Households are saving more‌
Households are trying to reduce debt‌
Households are not taking on new debt‌
Total Income is generally flat‌
Job losses, flat incomes, household rebalancing translates into weak consumer spending
May 2008 to May 2009: US Retail Sales down 9.6%
Horry County Retail Sales Jan. 1990 – April 2009
YTD 2009 (through April): Horry County Sales down 16% vs. 2008
U.S. Consumer Confidence
Implications of weak spending • Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy • Sluggish spending will continue to pressure the overall economy…. Which will continue to pressure consumer spending
Horry County Labor Market Indicators Jan. 1990 – May 2009
May 2008 to May 2009: Employment down 6.7% (8,700 jobs)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 1990Q1 – 2010Q4 2008Q1
0.9%
2008Q2
2.8%
2008Q3
-0.5%
2008Q4
-6.3%
2009Q1
-5.8%***
2009Q2
-3.1%
2009Q3
-1.2%
2009Q4
0.1%
2010Q1
1.0%
2010Q2
1.6%
2010Q3
2.0%
2010Q4
2.5%
***’09Q1: 1st release = -6.1% 2nd release = -5.7%
S.C. Labor Market Indicators 1976Q1 – 2010Q4
Unemployment: 2009 12.8% 2010 15.0% Job Growth: 2009 -4.2% 2010 -1.6%
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Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism Grand Strand Lodging Performance: The Most Recent Tourism Cycle and Predicting Short-Term Changes in Occupancy Levels
Dr.
Taylor Damonte Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism Wall College of Business Coastal Carolina University
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Average occupancy for hotels, condo-hotels, and campsites and the average reservations level for vacation rental properties along the Grand Strand appear to have similar cycles.
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
The Brittain Center’s weekly sample of hotels, condo-hotels & campsites consists of approximately: 31% hotels 62% condo-hotels 8% campsites The sample size during the most recent 52 week period averaged 10,961 units.
* The sample measures reservations and listed price of rental homes based on their website listing.
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center For Resort Tourism
The Brittain Center’s Weekly Scientific Random Sample of Vacation Rental Homes*
* The sample measures reservations and listed price of rental homes based on their website listing.
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism Grand Strand Hotel, Condo-Hotel, and Campsite Occupancy and Vacation Rental Home Reservations, Jan, 2008 – July 2009
Vacation Home Rental Performance, L.T. Damonte, August, 2006 - 2008 Weekly Average Reservations of Vacation Rental Properties
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism Weekly Average Occupancy in Hotels, Condo-Hotels, Campsites, Clay Brittain Jr. Center For Resort Tourism Jan., 2008 through July, 2009
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Average daily rates for the HCHC segments of the lodging industry versus the vacation rental property segments follow similar cycles though they have had different rates of change during some seasons of some years.
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism Average Daily Rates Most Recent 52 Weeks & Prior 52 Weeks
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Through observing rental websites for a random sample of vacation rental properties, the Brittian Center is able to create forecasts for changes in VRP occupancy. These forecasts can be used as a leading indicator of changes in hotel, condo-hotel, and campsite occupancy up to four weeks in advance.
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
For example, VRP reservations for the current week have been up by more than 2 occupancy points compared to the previous year. Average occupancy for HCHCs during the weekend of July 3rd – 4th, 2009 was nearly 97%, higher than it has been since 2006. However, VRP occupancy levels begin to decline slightly during the rental week to come, which suggests that weekend occupancy for HCHCs will likewise decline slightly compared to the previous weekend
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Clay Brittain, Jr. Center for Resort Tourism
Questions?
Coastal Carolina University
THANK YOU.