Stagnation

Friday, August 20, 2021

We track weekly new claims for unemployment benefits in California as an indicator of the direction of the labor market and the state's economy. Basically, we are stalled around the 60,000 mark and have been all summer. We need to be around 40,000 to be back to normal. Possibly, we are seeing the impact of the delta variant of the coronavirus.

How this stalling will affect the political scene in California is an open question, what with the recall ballots already in the mail. It has, however, upended the governor's strategy of emphasizing the economy "roaring back,"

As always, the latest data on new claims are at https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf.