indexwatch saptamanal, nr.192, 16 septembrie 2013
●
Dan Rusu, Head of Research
tel +40(264) 43 05 64; int 225
email dan.rusu@btsecurities.ro
focus
Crestere generalizata a increderii in economie la nivelul tarilor europene European Sentiment Indicator inregistreaza valori in crestere pentru majoritatea statelor membre evolutia indicatorului de sentiment ESI detaliata pe sectoare, AUG2013 / AUG2012 (pts YoY) 20 16.7 13.4
15
12.2 10.6
10.6
10.1
9.2
8.9
8.9
7.9
10
7.7 5.9
4.8
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9 2.5
5
2.5
1.2
1.0
0.8
© BT SECURITIES
0.6
0.0
-0.1
-0.2
0 -1.3
-2.1
-5
16.9
Grecia
14.7 12.9
Ungaria
12.2
Spania
Croatia
10.7 9.8
Spania
9.5
zona euro
6.8
Italia
6.3
Portugalia
5.6
Belgia
5.6
Ungaria Suedia Franta
4.1
Olanda
2.8
Cehia
2.2
Austria
1.6
Polonia
1.4
Letonia
1.2
7.4 6.8
Danemarca
6.4
Suedia
5.4
zona euro
5.2
-5
0
5
10
15
16.1
Lituania 4.8
Germania
4.7 4.6
8.6
3.1
Croatia
Croatia
2.5
Germania
7.0
2.1
Danemarca
6.5
Malta Belgia
8.3
zona euro
6.4
-1.5
Grecia
5.3
0.8
Polonia
Polonia
4.7
Austria
-2.0
Ungaria
Suedia
4.5
zona euro
-2.3
2.3
Austria
Slovenia
3.9
Olanda
-4.1
0.9
3.8
Spania
-4.8
0.7
Portugalia Belgia
3.8
Romania
-4.9
Franta
3.5
Italia
4.5 2.8
Bulgaria
2.7
Slovenia
2.5
Polonia
-5.0
2.1
Estonia
0.6
Letonia
-0.3
Olanda
3.0
Cipru
-5.9
Estonia
2.9
Slovacia
-6.5
Slovacia
2.5
Finlanda
-6.5
-3.2
Cipru
1.7
Letonia
Polonia
-4.3
Romania
1.3
Franta
-8.9
Cipru
-1.9
Bulgaria
-4.5
Luxemburg
Cehia
-9.2
Cehia
-2.7
-5.7
-10
-3.2
Letonia © BT SECURITIES
-13.0 -20
0.6
0
10
20
30
Grecia 40
© BT SECURITIES
-11.4 -20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Slovacia
Olanda
UE27
Romania
-1.4
10.2 9.2
Austria
-1.2
Luxemburg
Belgia
2.8
Cehia
12.7 10.3
Suedia
3.0
Finlanda
17.2 12.8
UE27
10.1
Danemarca
27.9 19.7
Italia
14.1
Bulgaria
Letonia
Estonia
Bulgaria
Polonia
Finlanda
Franta
Suedia
Cipru
Malta
Cehia
Danemarca
Olanda
Belgia
Austria
Romania
Portugalia
Belgia
Slovacia 20
Spania
19.5
Olanda
Malta © BT SECURITIES
19.9
Grecia
5.1
Letonia
-10
Germania
Finlanda
-1.7
-15
Portugalia
Estonia
UK Lituania
Slovenia Portugalia
7.7
Danemarca
5.4
Danemarca
-6.3
8.8
3.7
Lituania
-11.8
9.0
6.1
-1.3
Malta
Croatia zona euro
5.4
Finlanda
Luxemburg
9.8
Bulgaria
-2.1
Estonia
10.4
UE27
Germania
-2.9
-1.8
Cehia
20.6
Luxemburg
10.5
Lituania
4.6
Franta
-3.6
13.8
4.1
-1.1
Slovacia
14.4
Irlanda
Italia
Croatia
0.6
15.2
Ungaria
24.7
Ungaria
18.5
Slovenia
Cipru
0.4
Bulgaria
zona euro 9.8
Austria
21.1
Italia
retail (pts YoY)
UK
30.6
UK
8.0
Germania
constructii (pts YoY)
Malta Spania
16.0 13.5
UE27
5.5 4.2
32.2
Portugalia
6.9
UE27
34.8
UK
UK
Germania
consumatori (pts YoY)
Grecia
Slovenia
Cipru
Lituania
servicii (pts YoY)
Lituania
Romania
Grecia
UE27
industrie (pts YoY)
Slovenia
Italia
Spania
Croatia
Ungaria
UK
-3.9
Romania
Suedia
-12.5
Estonia
-12.6 -20
-0.6
Slovacia
-7.9
-1.2
Franta © BT SECURITIES
-10
0
10
20
-3.8
Finlanda 30
-18.0 -30
© BT SECURITIES
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 sursa: Eurostat, BT Securities Research
Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) este un indicator de sentiment calculat lunar de catre Comisia Europeana pe baza unor chestionare adresate reprezentantilor unor sectoare cheie ale economiei tarilor UE, precum si consumatorilor finali. Metodologia de lucru presupune calculul a 5 indicatori individuali pe sectoare si ponderarea valorilor obtinute pentru fiecare dintre acestia in functie de reprezentativitatea fiecaruia, dupa cum urmeaza: Industrial 40%, Servicii 30%, Consumatori 20%, Constructii 5% si Comert tip Retail 5%. Marimea esantionului difera in fiecare tara in functie de populatia totala si de numarul total de companii dintr-un anumit sector.
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