indexwatch saptamanal, nr.183, 27 mai 2013
●
Dan Rusu, Head of Research
[EXC
tel +40(264) 43 05 64; int 225
] T P ER
email dan.rusu@btsecurities.ro
focus
Japonia devine piesa centrala in tabloul macroeconomic global Costul finantarii Japoniei a crescut cu 50% in ultimele 2 luni, in conditiile unui grad de indatorare de peste 200% datoria publica guvernamentala ca procent din PIB (%); randamentul la titlurile de stat cu scadenta la 10 ani (%) 300%
5.0 datoria publica guvernamentala ca %PIB (lhs)
275%
randamentul la obligatiuni guvernamentale 10Y, % (rhs)
4.5
250%
237%
232%
225%
210%
200% 181%
215%
192%
186%
4.0
3.5
3.0
183%
170%
164%
175%
186%
244% e244%
2.5
154% 140%
150% 118%
125%
1.5
106%
99%
100%
2.0
132%
91%
1.0 0.84
83%
75%
0.5 © BT SECURITIES
2Q2013
4Q2012
2Q2012
4Q2011
2Q2011
4Q2010
2Q2010
4Q2009
2Q2009
4Q2008
2Q2008
4Q2007
2Q2007
4Q2006
2Q2006
4Q2005
2Q2005
4Q2004
2Q2004
4Q2003
2Q2003
4Q2002
2Q2002
4Q2001
2Q2001
4Q2000
2Q2000
4Q1999
2Q1999
4Q1998
2Q1998
4Q1997
2Q1997
4Q1996
2Q1996
4Q1995
2Q1995
4Q1994
0.0 2Q1994
50%
100% evolutia de la un trimestru la altul a randamentului la obligatiuni 10Y, %
80% 60%
+ 51%
40% 20% 0% -20%
© BT SECURITIES
-40%
2Q2013
4Q2012
2Q2012
4Q2011
2Q2011
4Q2010
2Q2010
4Q2009
2Q2009
4Q2008
2Q2008
4Q2007
2Q2007
4Q2006
2Q2006
4Q2005
2Q2005
4Q2004
2Q2004
4Q2003
2Q2003
4Q2002
2Q2002
4Q2001
2Q2001
4Q2000
2Q2000
4Q1999
2Q1999
4Q1998
2Q1998
4Q1997
2Q1997
4Q1996
2Q1996
4Q1995
2Q1995
4Q1994
2Q1994
-60%
sursa: AMECO, BT Securities Research
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