Kardashev Scale
“Boomers vs Doomers: Arguments for and against the Limits of Growth backed by science and philosphy” or “A Causal Layered Analysis of Sustainability”
Nikolai Kardashev White’s Law
culture evolves as the amount of energy harnessed per capita per year is increased, or as the efficiency of the instrumental means of putting the energy to work is increased
Future and Alternative Energies
Emergy
Exergy ENERGY Embodied Energy
Energy Development
Energy Crisis Paradoxically, both groups want to ensure the same thing: survival
Resource based view
Negawatt Power
Hubbert Peak Theory
Energy Efficiency
SURVIVAL
Peak Oil
The disproval of steady state theory could be extrapolated to disprove the long term viability of steady state economics
Energy Budgect
Demand
Supply
Energy Descent
Transhumanists say: let’s free ourselves from our bodies
Odum
Synthetic ecology says: let’s free ourselves from our environment.
Neocatastrophism Tether Propulsion VASIMR Interplanetary Space Flight ion drives Intergalactic Space Travel Interestellar Space Travel Interplanetary Transport Network
Space Fountain John McCarthy Space Elevator Launch Loop Keith Lofstrom Space Tourism Space Exploration
Space Colonization free-rider problem fund the study of space habitats.
British Interplanetary Society world's longest established space society.
National Space Society
an organization with the vision of "people living and working in thriving communities beyond the Earth."
Orbital Ring Paul Birch
promotes strong free market, capitalist views about space development.
sees existence as having no inherent goal
NASA Michael Griffin
Space and Survival
Dysteleology
Dyson Cloud Dyson Sphere Freeman Dyson Louis J. Halle Paul Davies
Doomsday Argument
Great Filter
Weak Anthropic Principle
Rare Earth Hypothesis
“easily” demonstrated. tautology, truism
Fermi Paradox
Brandon Carter
given enough universes, a small fraction thereof will be capable of supporting intelligent life. Ours must be one of these, and so the observed fine tuning should be no cause for wonder.
Fine Tuned Universe
a time-consistent model of discounting
deals with the study of relationships between organisms and their environment at large spatial scales relationship between the abundance of species and the size of their ranges within a region
There is an underlying principle that constrains the universe to evolve towards life and mind.
thermodynamically open system which is operating out of, and often far from, thermodynamic equilibrium in an environment with which it exchanges energy and matter
Market Socialism
TECHNOLOGY
Post Capitalism
Intelligent information-processing must come into existence in the Universe, and, once it comes into existence, it will never die out.
Aleph
Information Explosion
Logistic Growth Hyperbolic Growth Population Growth Exponential Growth
Social Ecology
Techno Utopianism
An Essay on the Principle of Population Earth in the Balance Al Gore
Moore’s Law
Rachel Carson Silent Spring Capacity Development
Post-Scarcity
A hypothetical form of economy or society, in which things such as goods,services and information are free, or practically free. This would be due to an abundance of fundamental resources (matter, energy and intelligence)
Futurists Futurism
Contingency
sensitively dependent on complex environmental conditions
Boomsters
Stochasticity Predictability random within constraints Possible Probable Wildcards Preferable Normative
American School
Paul Ehrlich
Claude E. Shannon Shannon Entropy Genes Adam Smith The Wealth of Nations Neoclassical Economics Planned Economies
Economical Equilibrium
ECONOMICS
John Maynard Keynes Treatise on Money Widow’s Cruse
Market Economies
Scarcity
An economy of relatively stable size featuring stable population and stable consumption that remain at or below carrying capacity. Entirely physical concept.
Zero population growth
Herman Daly Uneconomic growth Degrowth
DEMOGRAPHICS
Population Dynamics Nurgaliev’s Law Intrinsic Rate of Increase
Marxism
Robert Costanza
Jevons Paradox
Carrying Capacity
investigate the long-range future of humanity and the Earth
Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits to Growth
Ecological Forecasting
John von Neuman Game Theory
Teleonomy
The quality of apparent purposefulness and of goal-directedness of structures and functions in living organisms
Systems Theory
World3
Jay Forrester
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
An approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. SD models solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all variables in small time increments with positive and negative feedbacks and time delays structuring the interactions and control.
Possitive Feedback Negative Feedback Urban Dynamics
Wiked Problem
System Archetypes
Describe common patterns of behavior in dynamic complex systems.
Attractiveness Principle Balancing process with delay A variation of Limits to Growth archetype with restrictions caused by multiple limits. Any product or kind of business cannot ever be “all things to all people”
Success to successful Tragedy of the commons
Growth and underinvestment
The limit to growth is the current production capacity. It can be removed by sufficient investment in new capacities.
a computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems
World Dynamics John Collins
the former mayor of Boston
a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requireme ts that are often difficult to recognize
Shifting the burden Eroding goals Escalation
Global Footprint Network
Thomas Kuhn Normal Science
Post Normal Science
A methodology of inquiry that is appropriate for cases where "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent"
UNCERTAINTY
Super Wiked Problem While the items that define a wicked problem relate to the problem itself, the items that define a super wicked problem relate to the agent trying to solve it.
Uncertain Risks
Hyperbolic Discounting
it is reasonable to assume that there is an implicit risk that the reward will not be available at the future date
Bayesian Analysis
A time-inconsistent model of discounting hyperbolic discounts the value of future rewards much more than exponential discounting
Dynamic Inconsistency Temporal Discounting Minimisation Time Preference TIME A type of deception involving
y = x * ert
Present-bias
no such thing as sustainable growth
Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk
Extrapolation
The value of future goods diminishes as the length of time necessary for their completion increases.
George Reisman
Future Techniques
Causal layered analysis (CLA)
LIMITS
Seeks to move beyond the superficiality of conventional social science research and forecasting methods insofar as these methods are often unable to unpack discourses — worldviews and ideologies — not to mention archetypes, myths, and metaphors. Focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies. Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels 1. litany – the official unquestioned view of reality. 2. social causation level, the systemic perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this level. 3. worldview/discourse. Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. The way in which different stakeholders construct the litany and system are also explored. 4. myth-metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue. Moreover, in this loop of data–meaning–episteme–myth, reconstruction is not lost. Action is embedded in epistemology. With the CLA framework, the politics of epistemology is considered part of the research process. Politics is acknowledged and self-interest disclosed. Freeing methodology from politics is a never–ending task; however, within the CLA framework this is accomplished not by controlling for these variables but by layering them. CLA begins and ends by questioning the future.
Brundtland Commission
The notion of finitude
SUSTAINABILITY
is an economic one
Trophic Structure of the Economy Steady state economics against technological development
Intrinsic Rate of Increase keyword intrincisc. could be crucial in determining “natural” growth pattern.
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Global Change and the Earth System, a planet under pressure
Preservationism
Bioethics Anthropocentrism Environmentalism Ecosophy Ecocentrism Conservationism Deep Ecology BioConservatism
Sustainable Development
Planetary Management Environmental resource management
Opposed to techno Progressivism
Anthropocene
Global Governance Globalization Johan Rockström
Arne Naess
Paul Crutzen
Nobel Laureate
planetary life support systems
Will Steffen
Lovelock
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Gaia Hypothesis
Planetary Limits Climate Change Biodiversity loss Ozone depletion
Biogeochemical Ocean acidification Atmospheric aerosols
Ecological Footprint
Land use Freshwater Chemical pollution
Resource Depletion
Earth system science
seeks to integrate various fields of academic study to understand the Earth as a system
denial coupled with rationalisation in situationswhere complete denial is implausible.
Sysemic bias Favoritism
Time preference arises because of the possibility of being less able or unable to enjoy the use of goods in the future.
Strategic Foresight
contribution of future studies
Living Systems Flow Systems Simulation
Limits to Growth
Ecological Footprint
a measure of how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resource it consumes and to absorb its wastes, using prevailing technology
Julian Lincoln Simon
Scenarios Trends Forecasting Mega Trends Futures workshops Social network analysis Back-view mirror analysis Cross-impact analysis Simulation and modelling Backcasting (eco-history) Pragmatic foresight Civilizational foresight Systems Thinking Technology forecasting Morphological analysis Systems engineering Progressive foresight Failure mode and effects analysis futures methodologies have been influenced by the Future history poststructural thrust, with concerns for not what is being forecasted but what is missing from particular Futures biographies Monitoring Trend analysis forecasts and images of the future. Optimism Bias Futures wheel Relevance tree Daniel Kahneman Environmental scanning Delphi method Reference class forecasting Nobel Prize in Economics developed to eliminate or reduce optimism bias in Scenario method forecasting, planning, and decision making. predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actualoutcomes in Technology roadmapping a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast
Connect extrapolatory research with normative research
Ludwig von Bartalanfy Emergence Alexander Bogdanov Equilibrium Techtology
Ecological System Ecosystem Model
Second Order Cybernetics
Gregory Bateson
Systems
Control Theory
The study of teleoological mechanisms. The study of the communication and control of regulatory feedback both in living beings and machines, and in combinations of the two. The interdisciplinary study of the structure of regulatory systems.
Mathematical Biology
Biostatistics
when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, the rate of consumption of that resource actually tends to rise
the idea of sustainable growth at healthy rates as an oxymoronic stupidity whose pursuit is, unfortunately, infinitely more tragic than comic
Complexity Theory Systems Analysis Chaos Theory Systems Science
Solipsistic Epistemology Self-referential Maturana Desolate Theology Varela Constructivism
Analytic
Kenneth Boulding The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth
Sustainable Development
Cybernetics
Autopoiesis
literally means "self-creation" and expresses a fundamental dialectic between structure, mechanism and function
Entropy determines what is possible in the economy.
Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling
Temes
Norbert Wiener Heinz von Foerster
Homeostasis
Systems Biology
Recognized the connection between physical laws and economic activity.
Donella Meadows
Information Theory
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
Evolutionary Biology
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
Ecological Economics
Complexity Theory
Synthetic Biology
Anthony Giddens
Vaclav Smil
European School
BIOLOGY
The Entropy Law and the Economic Process
Bjørn Lomborg
focus on applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis
Memes
John Stuart Mill
Steady State Economics
Zero Growth
Overpopulation
What is Life?
...the increase of wealth is not boundless. The end of growth leads to a stationary state. The stationary state of capital and wealth… would be a very considerable improvement on our present condition. ...a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the art of living, and much more likelihood of it being improved, when minds ceased to be engrossed by the art of getting on."
The Population Bomb
Posits that the abundance of matter and energy in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth. the basic forces influencing the state of humanity and its progress are not due to inherent limitations caused by the so-called "finite" amount of natural resources. Natural resources are not finite since those are economic terms defined by economics. The extent of wealth depends upon the level of technology and the ability to create new knowledge. Based on the model that humans "produce" or "create" wealth rather than permanently "transform" natural resources
Julian L. Simon The Ultimate Resource
Uncertainties
Doomsters
Club of Rome
World Commission on Environment and Development Our Common Future
CORNUCOPIANISM
MALTHUSIANISM
For a finite-size system to persist in time (to live), it must evolve in such a way that it provides easier access to the imposed currents that flow through it.
Ecosystems
Free enthalpy
Principles of Political Economy
Full World Economics
THE LIMITS TO GROWTH
Worldwatch Institute State of the World
Ibn Khaldun
John McHale The Future of the Future
Malthusian Growth Model
Robert Malthus
Harrison Brown The Challenge of Man’s Future
an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services facilitated by increasing population, increasing per capita consumption, or both
Constructal Theory
Information Entropy
LIFE
Capitalism
Economic Growth
Law of Accelerating Returns
Patterns Design Generation Constructal Thermodynamics Self-organization Constructal Flow
Entropy Extropy
Negentropy Theorem of Minimum Entropy Production Autocatalytic Reactions Erwin Schrödinger
Green Capitalism
Economic Democracy Anarchist Communism Post Scarcity Anarchism Post-capitalistic dystopia Techno Capitalism
GROWTH Technological development
Protect people’s freedom to experiment, innovate, and progress.
Vernor Vinge Ray Kurzweil
post structuralism post colonial multi cultural history
D’Arcy Thompson
Illya Prigogine
THERMODYNAMICS Far from Equilibrium Systems
Kevin Kelly What Technology Wants
Final Anthropic Principle
Transhumanism
RAND SRI Acceleration Studies Foundation
an animal's metabolic rate scales to the ¾ power of the animal's mass
the study of the relationship of body size to shape,anatomy, physiology and finally behaviour
Dissipative Structures
Neural Networks
First, futures studies often examines not only possible but also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. Futures studies has decisively moved from ontological concerns about the nature of the predicability of the universe to epistemological concerns about the knowledge interests in varied truth claims about the future.
Kleiber Law
Allometry
Universe needs observers in order to exist.. Only universes with a capacity for consciousness can exist
Ultimate Fate of the Universe
Artificial Consciousness Strong Artificial Intelligence Synthetic Intelligence Mind uploading
FUTURE STUDIES
Metabolism
Occupancy-abundance relationship
The Life Principle
Frank J. Tipler
Friendly AI Artificial Intelligence
a new science of probability
the metabolic rate of organisms is the fundamental biological rate that governs most observed patterns in ecology.
Macroecology
Runaway positive feedback loop Nanosocialism Techno Progressivism Proactionay Principle Singularity
Futurology
Metabolic Theory of Ecology
Nobel Prize Chemistry
Maximum level of complexity and consciousness
Ossip K. Flechtheim
Darwinian Evolution
ECOLOGY
Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics
Omega Point
Eleonora Masini Why Futures Studies
Neoevolutionists Social Evolutionists EVOLUTIONARY THEORY
Strong Self-Samplig Assumption
Exponential discounting
Falsified by the 1965 discovery of the cosmic microwave background radiation
Law of Complexity/Consciousness
Oswald Spengler Decline of the West
The philosophical question of humanity's long-term survival. Dangers that have the potential to destroy, or drastically restrict, human civilisation
Participatory Anthropic Principle
Steady State Theory
Teilhard De Chardin
Studies meta patterns of social change
Existential Risk
"The age of the Universe 'now' is not random but conditioned by biological factors ... [changes in the values of the fundamental constants of physics] would preclude the existence of man to consider the problem."
non scientific, not falsifiable
States that all large regions and times in the universe must be statistically identical
The Phenomenon of Man
James Dator Advancing Futures Studies
claims that it is more important to reduce existential risks to increase the probability of eventual colonization rather than to accelerate technological development so that space colonization could happen sooner.
The conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence is always 1 Life is thermodynamicaly susceptible. The Universe adapts to the conditions necessary for life.
Perfect Cosmological Principle
only makes isolation and totality more evident
Dennis Gabor Inventing the Future
I’m a miner; this is my quarry
Differential Technological Development
ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE
Copernicus
Christopher McKay Terraforming Mars
Comte
Climate Change
Niklas Boström
Joel Garreau Radical Evolution
domino effect
Mathematical physicist and cosmologist, holding a joint appointment in the Departments of Mathematics and Physics at Tulane University
Macrohistory
Prediction Markets
possitive feedback tipping point
Strong Anthropic Principle
hypothetical planetary engineering process
Bertrand de Jouvenel The Art of Conjecture
Looking for words foreign to our current discourse Simulation Hypothesis
Robert Dicke
Modified Anthropic Principle
the easier it was for life to evolve to our stage, the bleaker our future chances probably are.
Geoengineering
World Future Society
Black Swan
Jan Narvenson
Space Colonies Principle of Mediocrity Alliance to Rescue Civilization Life Support Systems Copernican Principle Controlled Ecological Life Support System Nuclear Submarines Drake Equation Sylvia Engdahl Space Architecture Critical Stage Closed Ecological System Space Habitats Transhab period of time when a civilization has both the technology to Terrestrial Analoges Bernal Sphere O'Neill Cylinder expand into space and the technology to destroy itself Eden Project Biosphere 2 Bishop Ring Stanford Torus an artificial, materially-closed Von Neuman Probe ecological system in Arizona Gaia Spore BIOS-3 a closed ecosystem at the Institute of Self-Replication Bigelow Commercial Space Station Biophysics in Krasnoyarsk, Russia. Institute of Mechanical Engineers Clanking replicator Universal Constructors Bigelow Aerospace International Center for Closed Ecosystems Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies space technology startup company that is pioneering Russian Academy of Sciences work on expandable space station modules European Space Agency planetary engineering applied specifically to the Earth Private Space Flight deliberately manipulating the Earth's climate to counteract Robert Haynes the effects of global warming from greenhouse gas emissions Ecopoiesis Planetary Ecosynthesis James Lovelock Planetary Modeling The Greening of Mars Terraforming
Space makes us think about our space
Future of Humanity Institute
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Any philosophical account which holds that final causes exist in nature
V.I. Vernadsky
Carl Sagan James Oberg Planetary Engineering on Mars NASA Engineer New Earths
Catastrophe
TELEOLOGY
Space Geostrategy
against nuclear warfare
reverse colonization
Discounting might explain our neglet to think about the future
Outside Context Problem
Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps
the relationship between outer space and the long-term survival of the human species and civilization. Its investigation is justified by the fact that space colonization and space science could prevent many human extinction scenarios.
Gerard K. O'Neill The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space
Somol, Cybernecology
Malthusian Catastrophe
probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. Simply put, it says that supposing the humans alive today are in a random place in the whole human history timeline, chances are we are about halfway through it.
Eschatology
the philosophical view that existence has no telos or final cause from purposeful design
Marshall T. Savage Manifest Destiny The Millennial Project
John Tierney
Doomsday
Atheism
In the long run a single-planet species will not survive
Space Advocacy Space Frontier Foundation
an emerging field of academic discourse and research focused on the complex interactions of ontology, epistemology, and methodology Opposes Dysteleology
modern philosophical naturalism
Space Militarization
Ecological Collapse
a specific, plausibly verifiable or hypothetical occurrence which has an exceptionally destructive effect on the human race.
Integral Theory
Alternative to increase technological development: reduce existencial risk
Societal Collapse
Doomsday Event
The long-term survival of the human race is at risk as long as it is confined to a single planet.
Space Settlement Institute searching for ways to make space colonization happen in our lifetimes.
a metatheory that attempts to explain how academic disciplines and every form of knowledge and experience fit together coherently
Stephen Hawkings
Space Studies Institute
Survivalism
the theory that life-exterminating events such as gamma-ray bursts have acted as a galactic regulation mechanism in the Milky Way upon the emergence of complex life in its habitable zone.
AQAL