Kardashev Scale
“Boomers vs Doomers: Arguments for and against the Limits of Growth backed by science and philosphy” or “A Causal Layered Analysis of Sustainability”
Nikolai Kardashev White’s Law
Lynn White The Historical Roots of our Ecological Crisis
culture evolves as the amount of energy harnessed per capita per year is increased, or as the efficiency of the instrumental means of putting the energy to work is increased
Howard T. Odum Emergy Zoran Rant Exergy
Future and Alternative Energies
ENERGY Embodied Energy
Used in Industrial Ecology
Energy Development
Energy Crisis
Resource based view
Negawatt Power
Hubbert Peak Theory
Energy Efficiency
Peak Oil
SURVIVAL
Launch Loop Keith Lofstrom Space Tourism Space Exploration
free-rider problem
world's longest established space society.
National Space Society
an organization with the vision of "people living and working in thriving communities beyond the Earth."
Orbital Ring Paul Birch
the relationship between outer space and the long-term survival of the human species and civilization. Its investigation is justified by the fact that space colonization and space science could prevent many human extinction scenarios.
Dyson Cloud Dyson Sphere
Space Geostrategy
Weak Anthropic Principle
Rare Earth Hypothesis
“easily” demonstrated. tautology, truism
Fermi Paradox
Brandon Carter
given enough universes, a small fraction thereof will be capable of supporting intelligent life. Ours must be one of these, and so the observed fine tuning should be no cause for wonder.
Principle of Mediocrity
Fine Tuned Universe
The Life Principle
There is an underlying principle that constrains the universe to evolve towards life and mind.
Dissipative Structures
Universe needs observers in order to exist.. Only universes with a capacity for consciousness can exist
thermodynamically open system which is operating out of, and often far from, thermodynamic equilibrium in an environment with which it exchanges energy and matter
Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics
Ultimate Fate of the Universe
TECHNOLOGY
Information Explosion
Logistic Growth Hyperbolic Growth Population Growth Exponential Growth
Social Ecology
Runaway positive feedback loop Nanosocialism Techno Progressivism Proactionay Principle Singularity
Protect people’s freedom to experiment, innovate, and progress.
Techno Utopianism Law of Accelerating Returns
An Essay on the Principle of Population
John Locke
Empiricism
Jean Jacques Rousseau
Human nature is not fixed Humans were once solitary animals
Kant Hegel Marx
Human Nature
behaviorism Psychiatry determinism
Noble Savage
any system of law which is purportedly determined by nature, and thus universal
Legal Positivism refers to the rejection of natural law
German Idealism Romanticism Historicism
World Future Society
Neo Positivism
Logical Positivism
Positivism
Metaphysics Comte
Antipositivism Post Positivism Karl Popper Willard Van Orman Quine Thomas Kuhn
A hypothetical form of economy or society, in which things such as goods,services and information are free, or practically free. This would be due to an abundance of fundamental resources (matter, energy and intelligence)
Futurism
Contingency
sensitively dependent on complex environmental conditions
Ibn Khaldun
John McHale The Future of the Future
Boomsters
Stochasticity
Predictability random within constraints Possible Probable Wildcards Preferable
Macrohistory
Studies meta patterns of social change
Oswald Spengler Decline of the West
First, futures studies often examines not only possible but Normative also probable, preferable, and "wild card" futures. Uncertainties Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a holistic or systemic view based on insights from a range of American School different disciplines. Third, futures studies challenges and focus on applied projects, quantitative tools and systems analysis unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. Futures studies has decisively moved from ontological concerns about the nature of the predicability of the uniEuropean School verse to epistemological concerns about the knowledge investigate the long-range future of humanity and the Earth interests in varied truth claims about the future. Complexity Theory
RAND SRI Acceleration Studies Foundation
Chaos Theory
MALTHUSIANISM
Harrison Brown The Challenge of Man’s Future
Doomsters
THE LIMITS TO GROWTH
Worldwatch Institute State of the World
DEMOGRAPHICS
Club of Rome
The Predicament of Mankind
Population Dynamics Nurgaliev’s Law Intrinsic Rate of Increase
...the increase of wealth is not boundless. The end of growth leads to a stationary state. The stationary state of capital and wealth… would be a very considerable improvement on our present condition. ...a stationary condition of capital and population implies no stationary state of human improvement. There would be as much scope as ever for all kinds of mental culture, and moral and social progress; as much room for improving the art of living, and much more likelihood of it being improved, when minds ceased to be engrossed by the art of getting on."
World Commission on Environment and Development Garrett Hardin Paul Ehrlich Our Common Future The Tragedy of the Commons The Population Bomb United Nations Conference on the Human Environment Process of preparation of the Environmental Perspective to the Year 2000 and Beyond
Posits that the abundance of matter and energy in space would appear to give humanity almost unlimited room for growth. the basic forces influencing the state of humanity and its progress are not due to inherent limitations caused by the so-called "finite" amount of natural resources. Natural resources are not finite since those are economic terms defined by economics. The extent of wealth depends upon the level of technology and the ability to create new knowledge. Based on the model that humans "produce" or "create" wealth rather than permanently "transform" natural resources
John Maynard Keynes Treatise on Money Widow’s Cruse
Herman Daly Robert Costanza Uneconomic growth Degrowth
New Economics Foundation
Richard Dawkins The Selfish Gene
Memetics Biodiversity Adam Smith The Wealth of Nations Neoclassical Economics Planned Economies
Economical Equilibrium
Ecological Economics
Memes
Principles of Political Economy
ECONOMICS Scarcity
Marxism Anthony Giddens Richard Heinberg The End of Growth
Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen
“Prosperity without Growth Report”
Recognized the connection between physical laws and economic activity.
Claude E. Shannon Shannon Entropy
Otto Schmitt Biomimetics
Genes
BIOLOGY
Systems Biology
Kenneth Boulding The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth
Julian L. Simon The Ultimate Resource
Systems
Ecological System Ecosystem Model
Ecological Forecasting
Second Order Cybernetics
Teleonomy
John von Neuman Game Theory
The quality of apparent purposefulness and of goal-directedness of structures and functions in living organisms
World3
Systems Theory
An approach to understanding the behaviour of complex systems over time. SD models solve the problem of simultaneity (mutual causation) by updating all variables in small time increments with positive and negative feedbacks and time delays structuring the interactions and control.
World Dynamics John Collins
Describe common patterns of behavior in dynamic complex systems.
Attractiveness Principle Balancing process with delay
Post Normal Science
a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requireme ts that are often difficult to recognize
Shifting the burden Escalation
A methodology of inquiry that is appropriate for cases where "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent"
Success to successful Tragedy of the commons
While the items that define a wicked problem relate to the problem itself, the items that define a super wicked problem relate to the agent trying to solve it.
Present-bias
the idea of sustainable growth at healthy rates as an oxymoronic stupidity whose pursuit is, unfortunately, infinitely more tragic than comic
Extrapolation
Bayesian Analysis
Dynamic Inconsistency Temporal Discounting Minimisation Time Preference TIME A type of deception involving
Vaclav Smil
Scenarios Trends Forecasting Mega Trends Futures workshops Social network analysis Back-view mirror analysis Cross-impact analysis Simulation and modelling Backcasting (eco-history) Pragmatic foresight Civilizational foresight Systems Thinking Technology forecasting Morphological analysis Systems engineering Progressive foresight Failure mode and effects analysis futures methodologies have been influenced by the Future history poststructural thrust, with concerns for not what is Futures biographies being forecasted but what is missing from particular Monitoring Trend analysis forecasts and images of the future. Optimism Bias Futures wheel Relevance tree Daniel Kahneman Reference class forecasting Nobel Prize in Economics Environmental scanning Delphi method developed to eliminate or reduce optimism bias in Scenario method forecasting, planning, and decision making. predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actualoutcomes in Technology roadmapping a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast
it is reasonable to assume that there is an implicit risk that the reward will not be available at the future date
A time-inconsistent model of discounting hyperbolic discounts the value of future rewards much more than exponential discounting
Bjørn Lomborg
Systems Analysis Systems Science
Uncertain Risks
Hyperbolic Discounting
The limit to growth is the current production capacity. It can be removed by sufficient investment in new capacities.
Julian Lincoln Simon
UNCERTAINTY
Super Wiked Problem
Growth and underinvestment
Models of Doom: A Critique of the Limits to Growth
Thomas Kuhn Normal Science
the former mayor of Boston
Wiked Problem
System Archetypes
Eroding goals
a computer simulation of interactions between population, industrial growth, food production and limits in the ecosystems
Jay Forrester
Possitive Feedback Negative Feedback Urban Dynamics
A variation of Limits to Growth archetype with restrictions caused by multiple limits. Any product or kind of business cannot ever be “all things to all people”
Control Theory
The study of teleoological mechanisms. The study of the communication and control of regulatory feedback both in living beings and machines, and in combinations of the two. The interdisciplinary study of the structure of regulatory systems.
SYSTEM DYNAMICS
Living Systems Flow Systems Simulation
Limits to Growth
Groping in the Dark: The First Decade of Global Modelling
Autopoiesis
Solipsistic Epistemology Self-referential Maturana Desolate Theology Gregory Bateson Varela Constructivism Mathematical Biology Ludwig von Bartalanfy Emergence Alexander Bogdanov Equilibrium Techtology
Biostatistics
Donella Meadows
Cybernetics
literally means "self-creation" and expresses a fundamental dialectic between structure, mechanism and function
Analytic
Temes
Norbert Wiener Heinz von Foerster
Homeostasis
Entropy determines what is possible in the economy.
Eduard Pestel and Mihajlo Mesarovic Mankind at the Turning Point
Information Theory
Synthetic Biology
The Entropy Law and the Economic Process
Nicholas Stern Stern Report
Complexity Theory
A Mathematical Theory of Communication
Evolutionary Biology
Market Economies
An economy of relatively stable size featuring stable population and stable consumption that remain at or below carrying capacity. Entirely physical concept.
Zero population growth
Free enthalpy
John Stuart Mill
Steady State Economics
Zero Growth
For a finite-size system to persist in time (to live), it must evolve in such a way that it provides easier access to the imposed currents that flow through it.
LIFE
Full World Economics
Overpopulation
CORNUCOPIANISM
FUTURE STUDIES
reject metaphysics attempt to reduce statements and propositions to pure logic
Scientism
Eleonora Masini Why Futures Studies
Post-Scarcity
Futurists
Ossip K. Flechtheim James Dator Advancing Futures Studies
Rachel Carson Silent Spring Capacity Development
Vernor Vinge Ray Kurzweil
Robert Malthus
Earth in the Balance Al Gore
Moore’s Law
Malthusian Growth Model
Extropy
Constructal Theory
Information Entropy
What is Life?
Capitalism
Economic Growth
an increase in the production and consumption of goods and services facilitated by increasing population, increasing per capita consumption, or both
Patterns Design Generation Constructal Thermodynamics Self-organization Constructal Flow
Entropy
Negentropy Theorem of Minimum Entropy Production Autocatalytic Reactions Erwin Schrödinger
Green Capitalism
Economic Democracy Anarchist Communism Post Scarcity Anarchism Post-capitalistic dystopia Techno Capitalism
GROWTH Technological development
Neural Networks
Politics
Post Capitalism
Aleph
Artificial Consciousness Strong Artificial Intelligence Synthetic Intelligence Mind uploading
Transhumanism
Market Socialism
Intelligent information-processing must come into existence in the Universe, and, once it comes into existence, it will never die out.
Friendly AI Artificial Intelligence
sociology evolutionary psychology sociobiology psychology developmental psychology anthropology
THERMODYNAMICS Far from Equilibrium Systems
Kevin Kelly What Technology Wants
Final Anthropic Principle
Omega Point
Illya Prigogine
Nobel Prize Chemistry
Frank J. Tipler
a concept that states an intelligent being would be able Maximum level of complexity and consciousness to think an infinite number of thoughts in an open universe
a new science of probability
Jan Narvenson
Falsified by the 1965 discovery of the cosmic microwave background radiation
Teilhard De Chardin
Dennis Gabor Inventing the Future
a time-consistent model of discounting
Participatory Anthropic Principle
Steady State Theory
The Phenomenon of Man
Futurology
Strong Self-Samplig Assumption
Exponential discounting
"The age of the Universe 'now' is not random but conditioned by biological factors ... [changes in the values of the fundamental constants of physics] would preclude the existence of man to consider the problem."
non scientific, not falsifiable
States that all large regions and times in the universe must be statistically identical
Dyson’s Eternal Intelligence
Natural Law
The philosophical question of humanity's long-term survival. Dangers that have the potential to destroy, or drastically restrict, human civilisation
The conditional probability of finding yourself in a universe compatible with your existence is always 1 Life is thermodynamicaly susceptible. The Universe adapts to the conditions necessary for life.
Perfect Cosmological Principle
Christopher McKay Terraforming Mars
Bertrand de Jouvenel The Art of Conjecture
claims that it is more important to reduce existential risks to increase the probability of eventual colonization rather than to accelerate technological development so that space colonization could happen sooner.
Existential Risk
domino effect
Mathematical physicist and cosmologist, holding a joint appointment in the Departments of Mathematics and Physics at Tulane University
Theology
Climate Change
Differential Technological Development
ANTHROPIC PRINCIPLE
Copernicus
the tendency in matter to become more complex over time and at the same time to become more conscious
Thomas Hobbes Giambattista Vico David Hume
Niklas Boström
Joel Garreau Radical Evolution
possitive feedback tipping point
Strong Anthropic Principle
Law of Complexity/Consciousness
Francis Bacon René Descartes
Prediction Markets
Robert Dicke
Modified Anthropic Principle
the easier it was for life to evolve to our stage, the bleaker our future chances probably are.
hypothetical planetary engineering process
Socrates
Simulation Hypothesis
Ecological Crisis
Geoengineering
Ethics
Black Swan
probabilistic argument that claims to predict the number of future members of the human species given only an estimate of the total number of humans born so far. Simply put, it says that supposing the humans alive today are in a random place in the whole human history timeline, chances are we are about halfway through it.
Any philosophical account which holds that final causes exist in nature
Great Filter
Future of Humanity Institute
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
TELEOLOGY
Alliance to Rescue Civilization Life Support Systems Copernican Principle Controlled Ecological Life Support System Nuclear Submarines Drake Equation Sylvia Engdahl Space Architecture Critical Stage Closed Ecological System Space Habitats Transhab period of time when a civilization has both the technology to Terrestrial Analoges Bernal Sphere O'Neill Cylinder expand into space and the technology to destroy itself Eden Project Biosphere 2 Stanford Torus Bishop Ring an artificial, materially-closed Ark Bioshelter Von Neuman Probe ecological system in Arizona Gaia Spore BIOS-3 a closed ecosystem at the Institute of Self-Replication Bigelow Commercial Space Station Biophysics in Krasnoyarsk, Russia. Institute of Mechanical Engineers Clanking replicator Universal Constructors Bigelow Aerospace International Center for Closed Ecosystems Asilomar International Conference on Climate Intervention Technologies space technology startup company that is pioneering Russian Academy of Sciences work on expandable space station modules European Space Agency planetary engineering applied specifically to the Earth Private Space Flight deliberately manipulating the Earth's climate to counteract Robert Haynes the effects of global warming from greenhouse gas emissions Ecopoiesis Planetary Ecosynthesis James Lovelock Planetary Modeling The Greening of Mars Terraforming Carl Sagan James Oberg Planetary Engineering on Mars NASA Engineer New Earths
Outside Context Problem
Doomsday Argument
Eschatology
the philosophical view that existence has no telos or final cause from purposeful design
Malthusian Catastrophe
Catastrophe
Colonizing the Galaxy in Eight Easy Steps
against nuclear warfare
reverse colonization
Space Colonies
V.I. Vernadsky
Dysteleology
Marshall T. Savage Manifest Destiny The Millennial Project
Freeman Dyson Louis J. Halle Paul Davies
Gerard K. O'Neill The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space
Doomsday
Atheism
In the long run a single-planet species will not survive
John Tierney
Space and Survival
promotes strong free market, capitalist views about space development.
an emerging field of academic discourse and research focused on the complex interactions of ontology, epistemology, and methodology Opposes Dysteleology
sees existence as having no inherent goal
NASA Michael Griffin
Space Advocacy
Societal Collapse
a specific, plausibly verifiable or hypothetical occurrence which has an exceptionally destructive effect on the human race.
Integral Theory modern philosophical naturalism
Space Militarization
Ecological Collapse
Doomsday Event
The long-term survival of the human race is at risk as long as it is confined to a single planet.
Space Settlement Institute
Space Frontier Foundation
a metatheory that attempts to explain how academic disciplines and every form of knowledge and experience fit together coherently
Stephen Hawkings
Space Studies Institute
Survivalism
the theory that life-exterminating events such as gamma-ray bursts have acted as a galactic regulation mechanism in the Milky Way upon the emergence of complex life in its habitable zone.
AQAL
Space Fountain John McCarthy Space Elevator
Space Colonization searching for ways to make space colonization happen in our lifetimes.
Supply
Odum
Tether Propulsion VASIMR Interplanetary Space Flight ion drives Intergalactic Space Travel Interestellar Space Travel Interplanetary Transport Network
British Interplanetary Society
Demand
Energy Descent
Neocatastrophism
fund the study of space habitats.
Energy Budgect
Chronocentrism
Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk
y = x * ert
no such thing as sustainable growth
denial coupled with rationalisation in situationswhere complete denial is implausible.
Sysemic bias Favoritism
The value of future goods diminishes as the length of time necessary for their completion increases.
Strategic Foresight
George Reisman
Time preference arises because of the possibility of being less able or unable to enjoy the use of goods in the future.
Future Techniques
Causal layered analysis (CLA)
LIMITS
Seeks to move beyond the superficiality of conventional social science research and forecasting methods insofar as these methods are often unable to unpack discourses — worldviews and ideologies — not to mention archetypes, myths, and metaphors. Focuses less on the horizontal spatiality of futures and more on the vertical dimension of futures studies.
post structuralism post colonial multi cultural history
Causal layered analysis opens up space for the articulation of constitutive discourses, which can then be shaped as scenarios. Causal layered analysis consists of four levels 1. litany – the official unquestioned view of reality. 2. social causation level, the systemic perspective. The data of the litany is explained and questioned at this level. 3. worldview/discourse. Deeper, unconsciously held ideological, worldview and discursive assumptions are unpacked at this level. The way in which different stakeholders construct the litany and system are also explored. 4. myth-metaphor, the unconscious emotive dimensions of the issue. Moreover, in this loop of data–meaning–episteme–myth, reconstruction is not lost. Action is embedded in epistemology. With the CLA framework, the politics of epistemology is considered part of the research process. Politics is acknowledged and self-interest disclosed.
Murray Bookchin Our Synthetic Environment
Sustainable Development
Freeing methodology from politics is a never–ending task; however, within the CLA framework this is accomplished not by controlling for these variables but by layering them.
Jevons Paradox
Carrying Capacity
Full World Economics
when technological progress increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, the rate of consumption of that resource actually tends to rise
Ecological Footprint
CLA begins and ends by questioning the future.
a measure of how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resource it consumes and to absorb its wastes, using prevailing technology
Masanobu Fukuoka
Arne Naess
SUSTAINABILITY Sustainable Development
International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme Global Change and the Earth System, a planet under pressure
Environmental resource management
City-World Cosmopolis Constantinos Doxiadis Ecumenopolis John McHale
Connection to urbanism etc from bucky fuller and world design
Buckminster Fuller
United Nations Global Governance Globalization Johan Rockström
Globalism
Operating Manual for Spaceship Earth
Whole Earth Catalog World Design Science Decade
Opposed to techno Progressivism
Peter Berg Raymond Dasmann
Bioregionalism Regionalism
Change
ECOLOGY deals with the study of relationships between organisms and their environment at large spatial scales
Industrial Ecology
Anthropocene
Life Cycle Analysis
Nobel Laureate
Occupancy-abundance relationship relationship between the abundance of species and the size of their ranges within a region
Robert Frosch Nicholas E. Gallopoulos
Metabolism Allometry
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Climate Change Biodiversity loss Ozone depletion
Biogeochemical Ocean acidification Atmospheric aerosols
Ecological Footprint
an animal's metabolic rate scales to the ¾ power of the animal's mass
Darwinian Evolution
D’Arcy Thompson
Earth system science
Total Human Ecosystem
Urban Ecology
Landscape Ecology
Gaia Hypothesis
Land use
Evolutionary Theory
Kleiber Law
the study of the relationship of body size to shape,anatomy, physiology and finally behaviour
Biocentrism Lovelock
Zev Naveh
Ecosystems Ecology
Richard T. T. Forman
seeks to integrate various fields of academic study to understand the Earth as a system
Freshwater
Ecological Urbanism
Bill Mollison David Holmgren
Chemical pollution
Sustainable Human Habitats
Permaculture
an approach to designing human settlements and agricultural systems that is modeled on the relationships found in nature. agriculture that can be sustained indefinitely.
Resource Depletion
Howard T. Odum
Geography
Landscape
Ecosystems
Mohsen Mostafavi
Yellowstone Central Park Frederick Law Olmsted Emerald Necklace
Artificial Ecosystems
Landscape Urbanism
Alan Berger Charles Waldheim Chris Reed James Corner
Howard T. Odum
EcoCity Richard Register
Green Urbanism Smart Growth
Stan Allen
Landscape Architecture
Rem Koolhaas
Urbanism Geoplasty
Organic Farming
Agriculture
Probability
Chance Randomness
Modern Science Natural Philosophy
Parmenides a term applied to the study of nature and the physical universe that was dominant before the development of modern science. Heraclitus The study of natural philosophy seeks to explore the cosmos Democritus by any means necessary to understand the universe.
Cosmology
Aristotle
Nature
the study of nature on the grand scale
Etiology
the study of intrinsic and extrinsic causes
Infinity
Eden
New Urbanism Andres Duany Intelligent Urbanism Ekystics
Architecture
Forestry
Astronomy
Ebenezer Howard
Gardening
Horticulture
Agroforestry
Garden Cities
Joseph Paxton
EVOLUTION
the metabolic rate of organisms is the fundamental biological rate that governs most observed patterns in ecology.
planetary life support systems
Will Steffen
Social Evolutionists
the irreversible accumulation of historically mediated information.
Metabolic Theory of Ecology
Macroecology
Paul Crutzen
Planetary Limits
Inventory of World Resources
Bioethics
predictable directional change
Ernst Haeckel
Deep Ecology
Anthropocentrism Environmentalism Ecosophy Ecocentrism Conservationism Aldo Leopold A Sand County Almanac BioConservatism
Planetary Management Hashim Sarkis
Preservationism
Social Ecology
Applied Ecology
Global Footprint Network
Brundtland Commission
Development
Neoevolutionists
Green Building
Planning Environmental Planning
Darwin On the Evolution of Species