BAJÍO WESTERN www.datoz.com
3Q20
We are Datoz We combine continuous commercial real estate research with cutting edge software to provide transparency to the industry through impartial and constantly updated market intelligence. Our research team monitors and records the activity of 24 industrial real estate markets and 5 corporate office markets throughout MĂŠxico. Research efforts include field verification activities that reinforce our data precision and provide our researchers with physical evidence to support our monthly market updates. Datoz proprietary software allows users to connect online any time and from anywhere. Our suite of products offers the possibility to search verified available spaces, download property brochures, view details from thousands of lease and sale transactions, customize data-sets, download statistics and indicators in friendly and customizable formats, among many other features.
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Index
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3Q20 BajĂo-Western
We are Datoz
1
Index
2
Economic outlook
3
Market location
4
Inventory
5
Vacancy rate
6
Gross absorption
7
Asking and closing prices
8
Construction activity
9
Summary
10
Glossary
11
Methodology
12
Contact information / Privacy policy
13
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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3Q20
Economic Outlook According to INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía), national industrial activity decreased 11.6% annually in July 2020. This is due to the drop by 23% and 9.5% in construction and manufacturing, respectively. Nevertheless, monthly industrial output rose by 6.9% when comparing September with August. Analysts at Monex Financial Group highlighted the urge of manufacturing in the gradual industrial recovery. Manufacturing employment contracted by 4.7% annually as of July 2020, while the monthly rate had an increase of 0.9%, according to INEGI.
In July 2020 consumption decreased by 15.1% year over year, this is the lowest in the last two months.
Inflation growth reached 4.05% in August 2020, driven by an increase
in the prices of some agricultural products, according to INEGI.
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Market location
BAJÍO WESTERN
Aguascalientes
San Luis Potosí
Guanajuato Guadalajara
Querétaro
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INVENTORY 3Q20
Inventory
The bajío-western region’s total inventory, which includes the markets of Aguascalientes, Guadalajara, Guanajuato, Querétaro and San Luis Potosí, closed 3Q-2020 with a total of 235.1 million ft2 of GLA, approximately 2.24% more than the same period a year earlier.
This increase was driven by Guadalajara, adding over 1.9 million ft2 of GLA in the last 12 months reaching a total inventory of 48.2 million ft2. Guanajuato, the largest market in the region, reached 65.1 million ft2 of GLA.
Ags.
S.L.P
Market Inventory measures the total size of a real estate market taking into account delivered building as well as those planned and under construction from all classes (A, B and C).
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MARKETS
INVENTORY
Guanajuato
65,145,253
Querétaro
62,262,107
Guadalajara
48,180,985
San Luis Potosí
35,259,492
Aguascalientes
24,247,560
Total
235,095,396
Guanajuato
10%
28%
15%
21%
26%
Guadalajara
*ft2
**Bajío-Western
© Source: Datoz
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Querétaro
VACANCY RATE
3Q20
Vacancy rate
2020 Guanajuato
8.78%
8.75%
Querétaro
7.16%
8.04%
San Luis Potosí
6.65%
6.99%
Guadalajara
4.58%
6.09%
Aguascalientes
2.06%
2.50%
Average
6.48%
7.11%
In the third quarter of 2020, a vacancy rate of 7.11% was recorded for the region, roughly 16.7 million ft2 of GLA and a year-over-year increase of 63 basis points. Guanajuato and Querétaro’s vacancy rate increased to 8.75% and 8.04%, respectively, while Aguascalientes recorded the lowest rate of the region, only 2.50%.
2019 2020
*Bajío-Western region
The ratio of available space to total inventory is described as availability rate.
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
© Source: Datoz
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GROSS ABSORPTION
3Q20
Gross Absorption
MARKETS
3Q-2020
Guadalajara
1,088,576
Guanajuato
769,458
Querétaro
272,510
San Luis Potosí
71,569
Aguascalientes
-
Total
2,202,113
The bajío-western region recorded YTD gross absorption of 6.1 million ft2, Guadalajara and Guanajuato drove this gross absorption with 2.6 million ft2 and 1.8 million ft2, respectively. During 3Q-2020 regional gross absorption amounted to 2.2 million ft2, 192.94% more than 2Q-2020 and a year-over-year increase of 11.07%. Guadalajara was the top performing market in the region, with gross absorption of 1.1 million ft2 across 11 transactions for logistics and warehousing activities, followed by Guanajuato and Querétaro with 769,458 ft2 and 272,510 ft2, respectively.
1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Gross absorption refers to the amount of space leased or sold to and end-user during any given period.
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0 Guadalajara *ft2
**Bajío-Western region
Guanajuato
Querétaro
San Luis Potosí Aguascalientes
© Source: Datoz
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ASKING AND CLOSING PRICES
3Q20
Asking and closing prices
MARKET
ASKING
CLOSING
Guadalajara
$0.42
$0.38
San Luis Potosí
$0.40
$0.39
Guanajuato
$0.38
$0.35
Aguascalientes
$0.37
-
Querétaro
$0.37
$0.43
Average
$0.39
$0.39
During 3Q-2020, weighted average lease rates came in at $0.39 USD/ft2/month, for both closing and asking rates. Querétaro had one of the highest closing rates in the region, currently averaging at $0.43 USD/ft2/month.
$.50 $.40
The asking price is the rate per ft2 at which a building’s space is offered. On the other hand, the rate at which a space has actually been leased or sold is the closing price.
$.30
Asking
$.20
Closing
$.10 $0 Guadalajara
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3Q20 Bajío-Western
San Luis Potosí
*USD/ft2/month **Bajío-Western Guanajuato
Aguascalientes
Querétaro
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© Source: Datoz
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
3Q20
Construction activity
During 3Q 2020, Guanajuato and Querétaro recorded construction starts, adding over 683,000 ft2 of GLA across five projects. Approximately 51% less than the same period a year earlier. Built-to-suit buildings represent 80.01% of ft2 under construction.
Featured projects
Construction Activity measures the total amount of construction initiated during any given period including speculative, built-to-suit (BTS) and built-to-own (BTO) spaces.
NAME
PARK
GLA
OWNER
BTS-Confidencial
Pilba
430,566
Artha Capital
Guanajuato
León
Flex Space León
Stiva
82,366
Stiva
Guanajuato
León
BTS-Huawei
El Marqués
24,757
El Marqués
Querétaro
El Marqués
MARKET SUBMARKET
*ft2 **Bajío-Western ****GLA (Gross Leasable Area) © Source: Datoz
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3Q20 Bajío-Western
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SUMMARY
3Q20
Summary The bajío-western region (Aguascalientes, Guadalajara, Guanajuato,
Querétaro and San Luis Potosí) closed the third quarter of 2020 with a total inventory of 235.1 million ft2, a 2.24% year-over-year increase. By the end of 3Q-2020, the region’s vacancy rate was 7.11%, around 16.7
million ft2. Guanajuato’s vacancy rate stood at 8.75% and Querétaro’s rate at 8.04%. YTD gross absorption totaled 6.1 million ft2, meanwhile 3Q-2020 recorded a gross absorption of 2.2 million ft2. Weighted average asking and closing prices both ended 3Q at $0.39
USD/ft2/month. During the 3Q-2020, construction starts in Querétaro and Guanajuato recorded 683,411 ft2.
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3Q20 Bajío-Western
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GLOSSARY
3Q20
Glossary Inventory (ft2): Measures the total size of a real estate market taking into account delivered building as well as those planned and under construction from all classes (A, B and C). Availability rate (%): The ratio of available space to total inventory. Availability (ft2): Measure of the total space available for lease and sale including delivered buildings as well as those under construction and planned from all classes (A, B and C). Gross absorption (ft2): Refers to the amount of space leased or sold to an end-user during any given period. Asking price: The rate per square foot at which a building’s space is offered. Closing price: The rate at which any given space has actually been leased or sold. Ongoing speculative construction (ft2): Speculative space under construction at the end of any given period. Construction activity (ft2): The sum of construction starts including speculative, built-to-suit (BTS) and built-to-own (BTO) projects.
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3Q20 BajĂo-Western
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METHODOLOGY
3Q20
Methodology We work with an extensive network of market participants and maintain constant contact to update information on a monthly basis. In this manner, we ensure that key market data comes directly from the professionals involved in diverse activities that affect commercial real estate in each and every market. Our researchers verify all collected data and visit markets regularly to corroborate information that can only be validated through physical surveys and on-site inspections. We continuously work to standardize number formats, calculations and ratios in order to present our results in a simple and comprehensible manner. Once data has been thoroughly verified and meets quality standards, it is merged and loaded unto our database, which in turn compares it against other entries pertaining to the same property and market to validate its place in a building’s historic timeline. Furthermore, our analysts continually review our data-sets in order to proactively amend anomalies and in doing so help maintain the highest standards of quality for real estate data in Mexico.
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3Q20 BajĂo-Western
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Legal notice The material presented in this document by Datoz Real Estate refers to information collected from the market and provided by trusted sources. The contents shall be exclusively informative without legal value or effect or of any other nature, so Datoz Real Estate is not responsible for any damage that results from or may derive from the use or misuse that is made of these contents. For more information about this report or any other investigative material of Datoz consult our website www.datoz.com.
Contact 01 (81) 2721 0850Â www.datoz.com Calzada San Pedro No.104-A. Col. del Valle.Â
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