JANUARY AWP IN REVIEW

Pricing Stabilizes

After closing the books on 2022, uncertainty continues to permeate throughout the dealer network. While the expectations of Spring typically bring slight increases in Average Wholesale Prices (AWPs) in January, the back half of 2022 was anything but typical. With July through December AWPs correcting downward up to 20% or more, January pricing showed some welcome stabilization. Compared to the prior 90 days, AWPs for most categories were relatively unchanged.

Metric Cruisers rose more than most, while ATV and Side-by-Side AWPs continued to decline. Smaller volume categories like PWC, Marine, and RV reflected positive gains directly attributed to a better product mix. On a year-over-year basis, all categories decline moderately to significantly as post-pandemic pricing continues its retreat to normal levels. The minor exception was Metric Cruisers, which remain in demand versus supply as OEMs resolve their supply chain challenges.

Slow Start

January auction volume continued to come in lower than in prior years, a stark contrast to growing dealer inventory levels. Between concerns over supply chain issues and the rapid drop in wholesale values, many dealers continued to stock and hold inventory through the back half of 2022. With the market transitioning back to normal, smart dealers will take advantage of the Spring market to clean out their closets. Any excess inventory held past May is at risk of another round of significant devaluation, especially as the economy slows. Auction product mix shifted slightly, with an increase in the ratio of Sport bikes and declines in the mix of Domestic and Metric Cruisers.

Looking Forward

Spring brings new product, tax return money, and improving weather conditions across the country. We anticipate further price stabilization and slight upticks across the category spectrum in February and March. We also expect pricing to be more muted this Spring than in typical years and then a significant decline in values again this Summer and Fall. Inventory management over the next 120 days could be makeor-break for many stores. Now is the time to act if you’re already sitting on excess inventory. While retail sales and profit margins are always the priority, dealers will need to be aggressive this year in both their retail and wholesale auction strategies to avoid being buried in the wrong inventory at the wrong price when a midyear recession arrives.

*All data provided by National Powersport Auctions includes live and online transactions from all NPA locations. Closed OEM auction data is excluded. For more info visit NPAUCTIONS.COM.

JANUARY ‘23 VS. JANUARY ‘22 AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICE CHANGE