DSA January 2014 by Defence and Security Alert

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lthough the motives and reasons for going to war have remained constant, the nature of war fighting has changed. War is no longer fought the way it was barely a couple of decades back. The use of air power has changed beyond comprehension. From the screaming dog fights of World War I to the unseen stealth fighters of the 21st century. And now the advent of unmanned delivery of aerial combat capability, the nature of applying air power has changed exponentially. Naval war fighting is as old as civilisation. From the early mass movement of galleons to the super silent SSBNs of today, naval capabilities have come a long way indeed. The future of ship design is the incorporation of stealth features, much like those in combat aircraft. And that future is already upon us. Modern navies around the world are inducting stealth capable ships, investing in advanced aviation capabilities and new materials to further hide submarines. Application of naval power has, therefore, undergone enormous changes. It remains an essential to being regarded a global power. In this maelstrom of military changes and evolution of war fighting, the armies are not to be left behind. In fact even in the most unchanging military service there have been significant changes. So much so that the nature and structure of global armies is undergoing a massive change. As the nature of war fighting has evolved in the air and in the seas, it has done so on land as well. And in very drastic ways. The mass slaughter of the First World War are a thing of the past, and thankfully so. Lives of the mass produced foot soldier are no longer something taken for granted. This is as true for their equipment as it is for their deployment. The change in land war fighting has affected the perception of an army as a modern military means. Even as this change is palpable there is still a constant about an army and its application. This rests on the premise that the ultimate determinant of power is the ability to put boots on the ground. That measure has remained constant through human history and continues to retain its importance. It is the hallmark of power. How that power is to be projected, however, has determined the changing nature and structure of global armies. Different countries have applied their lessons learnt in various ways to realising their structural visions of their respective armies. Lessons learnt have varied according to different political and military experiences, obviously. This has resulted in drastically differing solutions to the most basic military questions – how much is required, how is it to be used and what are its costs. Around these fundamental queries have revolved the various structural changes implemented across the world. Some have cut down dramatically on manpower, while there has been an increase in other countries. Mechanisation of war fighting has increased in some quarters, while at the same time the foot soldier, the infantry man, has seen a resurgence elsewhere. It all boils down to the self-analysis conducted at the national and strategic levels by the concerned countries. That they have carried out such reviews is testimony to the fact that a constantly changing and challenging global environment is forcing a rethink and a re-look at an institution long regarded as sacrosanct. In the modern era and especially given the challenges imposed by political dynamics of the 21st century, nothing can any longer be taken as sacrosanct. Long regarded as the most rigid of national institutions, global armies are being armed in a manner that keeps tasks at the forefront. Rather than relying on mass as a force multiplier, armies are now being restructured keeping capability as the cornerstone. Increasing specialisation amongst the enlisted troops today is a far cry from the generalisation of yore. As a result of which there has been an explosion of budgeting for Special Forces worldwide. As the nature of conflict became largely covert and low-intensity so did the need to invest in Special Forces capabilities. Technology followed likewise, growing ever more precise and expensive. Thus the need to undergo a re-look at the nature and structure of armies worldwide. The bedrock has been capacity and the intention of force. All of this is the logical outcome of the rationalisation of force, which after all, is the application of national power.

Manvendra Singh January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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ime and circumstances have changed drastically in the past few decades in every sphere of human existence. We are fully aware that economic development and progress transpiring round the globe have also been instrumental in presenting challenges, threats, competitions and rivalry among nations simultaneously. Defence forces have been an integral part of every civilisation and creation of modern military wherewithal has contributed to both economic growth and political realignments across continents. We are witnessing these defence forces, especially National Armies, emerging as bulwarks of nation states. Their enhanced potential in terms of being better equipped mentally and materially is adding value to their performances. Modernisation of the army has been a focus area for every nation, leading to procurement of best technologies, gadgets and military know-how with an endeavour to keep their army personnel abreast and conversant with latest developments – the state-of-the-art. This contributes to improved vigilance or what has come to be known as “situational awareness”, in safeguarding their borders and nation. There has been a complete transformation observed in the army during the past few decades as some states have acquired economic prosperity resulting in a diversion of resources to this modernisation process of their armies and their fighting men. There has been a paradigm shift in the procurement of arms and ammunition, training and use of technologies to attain best results. A unique and contemporary concept of joint exercises has emerged in the last few decades which has proved to be an innovative approach in sharing military knowledge and skills by various nations. This has helped states understand their challenges and made their army top brass aware of an alternative option which would contribute to greater development and economic progress over time. Veritably, these joint exercises have manifested and strengthened bilateral relations between these nations. Some may say that these exercises are a wastage of resources but the fact remains that this concept has actually generated peace and mutual proximity, camaraderie and trust among armies of states, affirming a pathway to humanity and global peace. The role of armies during peacetime too has become profound by their active participation in disaster management during national calamities. India has become a very important hub for the entire Asia-Pacific region as far as geopolitics is concerned. The Indian Army has been conducting many such joint exercises with the developed and developing countries. The recent exercises with Russia, US, UK and other countries have added value to the overall performance of the Indian Army and their counterparts too.

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I am sure that global armies of the future will prove to be real peacemakers and contribute to peace and prosperity with their honed war skills. Anno Domini 2014 is round the corner as we go to Press and I conceive many new developments which will affect global geopolitics. The US-led International Security Assistance Force will be back home from Afghanistan and our premonition indicates unpredictable turbulence. Its impact on India is based on the record of the Nawaz Sharif government in Pakistan which has been dubious to say the least during its earlier tenure during late 1990s, when Kargil War happened and the Prime Minister feigned ignorance and innocence. But India has been a peace loving country and will continue to demonstrate the same commitment to peace and humanity in defiance of threats and challenges. We are confident that our army is efficiently qualified and ready to face all eventualities. On behalf of Team DSA I wish a very happy, prosperous and peaceful 2014 to all our readers, contributors, associates and everyone who has a nationalist approach to life. Jai Hind!

January 2014 Defence AND security alert

Pawan Agrawal

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Contents

GLOBAL ARMIES

CHANGING NATURE AND STRUCTURE A R T I C L E S

Need For Slim, Trim, Light And Agile Security Mechanism Lt Gen (Dr) DB Shekatker PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd)

Resurgent Russian Military Prof PL Dash

Defence Reforms For The Coming Decade Lt Gen Kamal Davar PVSM, AVSM (Retd)

Factors Affecting Future Military Structures Lt Gen OP Kaushik PVSM, AVSM, VSM, M-in-D (Retd)

Structuring Armies To Combat WMDs Dr Vinod Jyothikumar

Pakistanâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Generals In A Quandary Major Gen AK Hukku (Retd)

Understanding Pre-contact Cues Damien Martin

Cyber Armies And Social Media Emerging Threats For India Dr Rajendra Prasad

The Future Soldier Radhakrishna Rao

Ballistic Missile Defence Will The Shield Get Better? Arjun Subramanian P

Strategic Partnership And The Games America Plays Cecil Victor

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Contents SPECIAL ISSUE JANUARY 2014

An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Volume 5 Issue 4 January 2014

F E A T U R E S

Sneak Peek

3 24

Changing Nature Of Global Armies Team DSA

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW 28 Rear Admiral Tony Graham Director Ships, Defence Equipment and Support, UK Ministry of Defence

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW 54 Mr Sartaj Singh DGOF and Chairman Ordnance Factories Board POST SHOW REPORT 58 UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission To India 2013 EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW 60 Commodore Rajan Vir President, Indian Maritime Foundation Defending The Himalayas 63 Team DSA

46 Get Connected

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January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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SHEDDING FLAB

NEED FOR SLIM TRIM LIGHT AND AGILE

LT GENERAL (DR) DB SHEKATKAR PVSM, AVSM, VSM (RETD)

SECURITY MECHANISM

The writer has served as Additional Director General Military Operations and Additional Director General Perspective (Strategic) Planning at Army Headquarters, New Delhi. Presently he is the National President of Forum for India’s Integrated National Security and Samarth Bharat Vyas Peeth.

There is an age old philosophy of good governance and national security since Mahabharat, which was reaffirmed by famous Indian strategic philosopher Chanakya: “If you wish to prevent a war be prepared for it. But never be too eager for a war”. Thanks to the political, diplomatic, ideological leadership, India’s security and defence philosophy and strategy became over-focused towards Pakistan. In doing so unfortunately we totally ignored our bigger adversary and competitor China.

f we study Manusmruti the guiding Indian philosophy of governance and national security, we will ﬁnd that there are “four categories of threats, challenges, impediments to national security”. Manusmruti is written in Sanskrit the mother of all languages and scripts. If translated in English these are:

 External Threats Externally Abetted. Examples are Pakistan’s attack in Kashmir in 1947, China’s attack in 1962, Pakistan attack on India in 1965, Kargil War. Terrorist attack on Mumbai 26/11 etc.  External Threats Internally Abetted. Examples are insurgency in north-east India, terrorism in Punjab, Kashmir, insurgency in Assam, Terrorist attack on Parliament, 26/11 etc.  Internal Threats Externally Abetted. Insurgency in north-east supported by China and ISI, terrorism in India, bomb blasts at Bodh Gaya in Bihar, illegal migration in India etc.  Internal Threats Internally Abetted. Insurgency in Manipur, unrest in Meghalaya, Maoists, Naxalite threats, terrorism in India, bomb blast by Indian Mujahideen, increasing radicalism in India, USA. Radicalism in Pakistan where Muslims are killing Muslims, LTTE in Sri Lanka, communal violence in India etc. Since our independence, India has been subjected to all four types of threats as explained above. Before independence the philosophy, role, organisation of security mechanism was to protect the interests of British Empire in India and abroad. India’s national strategic orientation (specially of Indian Army) was basically an overseas expeditionary force, with limited home defence (North West frontlines and Burma (now Myanmar). However post-1947 it changed to defence of homeland, defence of motherland from external aggression. Despite this change the Indian leadership failed to grasp the reality. Defence of homeland from whom? Who will be

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

the aggressor? What will be the motivations for aggression on India? Why, where and how will India be attacked? How should India prepare to assure defence and security of India’s territorial integrity and India’s national interests? For some reasons we again failed to understand the philosophy advocated in Manusmruti and by Chanakya that “by failing to anticipate, failing to predict and failing to prepare, you (nations) are actually preparing to fail and get defeated on battleﬁeld and in combat”. It is this failure to organise and prepare India’s security mechanism, intelligence mechanism and armed forces; encouraged both Pakistan and China to attack India and capture our territory not once but again and again. China continues to enlarge her hold on Indian territory in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh even today.

Trends Around The World

Intelligence agencies, security and defence mechanism will have to share greater responsibility. We should never make a mistake of blindly copying NATO model and philosophy in Asia-Pacific Region. NATO has totally failed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East and North Africa in every aspect of international governance, peace and stability.  Geopolitical, geostrategic uncertaintities and unpredictability will not only persist but also likely to increase in future. This will demand constant and continuous “predictability and anticipatory threat analysis” by security and defence experts to ensure that we are not taken by surprise.  Shift from geopolitical to geoeconomic will dictate geostrategy and security.  Transformation of conflict is underway with unconventional, irregular, non-standard conflicts and terrorism gaining prominence and priority. Even the war terminology is being influenced due to the nature and urgency of conflict resolution; such as “war of necessity – and war of choice”. The so called strategic and security experts must realise that war is a war; either by choice or default, either due to the urgency and necessity of response or by choice. The characteristics of weapons, armaments, aircraft, gunships, the lethality of bombs or bullets does not change in different forms of conflict / war.  Efforts will be concentrated on introducing and enforcing international intervention in local conflict, which may either extend the conflict or give further impetus to unrest (like in Syria) forcing ruling regimes and armed forces to use force to ensure stability.  Despite nuclearisation of Indian subcontinent space and scope still exists for limited high intensity conventional war like Kargil War. Pakistan was fully aware of India’s nuclear capability and still took calculated risk to attack Kargil. Pakistan was convinced and confident that India’s threshold of tolerance will not encourage India to escalate war in other sectors to punish Pakistan for the misadventure.  Force structure, organisation and control of security mechanism will have to be clear to face threats and dangers

arising from nuclear, chemical and biological protection. This technology and capability in the hands of non-state actors will create new challenges. There will be a likely shift from weapons of mass destruction towards disruption of masses. It will be difﬁcult to pinpoint and hold nations accountable.  How to use combat force in war against terrorism in own country? India cannot and should not adopt US model to combat terrorism. Wars of necessity or wars of choice are not fought by USA on American soil within geographical boundaries of USA. The situation and ground reality in Indian context is entirely different.  Political initiatives and diplomacy is being supplemented and strengthened by politico-economic and politico-military diplomacy.  The future war in Indian context will most likely be limited in time, scope and space.  The armed conﬂicts will be based on full knowledge and detailed information about warring rivals.  The criteria and emphasis will shift from how many killed and how much is destroyed to how quickly killed and destroyed!! This will need philosophy and mechanism for surgical strike and not the philosophy of “cold start”.

Reorganising And Restructuring

Sudden terrorist attack on America forced the government to “do something” to assure the combat capability of American forces and also to reassure the world about the credibility of America’s military might. Out of anger and frustration of the government of the time USA got involved in an unwinnable war in Afghanistan (the war of necessity) and later in Iraq in 2003 (the war of choice)!! My aim to explain the ill-effects of wrong vision, wrong philosophy, wrong strategy is not to criticise America, but to learn from the mistakes of America, because India has

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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SHEDDING FLAB

While discussing reorganisation, restructuring the security mechanism in India there is a need to examine the emerging trends in the world. Geographical distances, boundaries, have almost lost their relevance due to increasing connectivity, inter-dependence, inter-operability and greater transparency and so on entered into “Strategic Partnership” with America and “defence cooperation” is one of the most important aspects for America. We are conducting joint training with US Army, Navy, Air Force and may be with Intelligence agencies also. We are purchasing armaments, aircraft, equipment, technology. In the long run our vision, philosophy, thinking, strategy is bound to get impacted. No directive, instruction can prevent this. What has happened in Iraq? It is questionable if Americans will be allowed by Al Qaeda, Taliban and Pakistan to pull out all the combat assets from Afghanistan. The cost is estimated to be approximately 30 billion US dollars! What will be the end result? Today “Al Qaeda and Terrorist Philosophy and Concept” which was conﬁned to Afghanistan till 2000, has spread over to half the globe! The population of at least 43 countries aligned to a religious and idedogical philosophy has started harbouring suspicion and hate towards America. The American and European youth is getting ideologically radicalised. Why home-grown terrorism, radicalism is gaining roots and strength in America, Europe and even in India? Where have the active members and supporters of SIMI and Indian Mujahideen come from? Are they not home-grown? Why have they emerged? Armaments, technology, combat strength and combat philosophy have inbuilt limitations.

Cause Of Concern For India

I have deliberately explained and highlighted at length the “ill-effects of the uncontrolled military might” anywhere in the world. Gradually the “young Indian minds” across India (“the leadership in Indian Armed Forces is no exception”) are gradually getting influenced with American way of life, thinking process, consumerism, undesirable and unwarranted dependence on technology. Youth in India is looking towards America as a role model not realising and understanding the adverse impact of such philosophy by Americans themselves. The same youth will join the Indian Armed Forces shortly and gradually rise to senior ranks who will influence the strategic vision and philosophy of India’s security and defence mechanism. No minister, policy formulator, decision-maker, head of intelligence and security organisation feels satisfied unless he makes a pilgrimage to USA during his / her tenure!! When they return home they advocate the application of American philosophy in Indian context. We must never forget the fact that Indian security mechanism and Indian Armed Forces are basically focused to ensure territorial integrity of India and our Integrated and Comprehensive National Security. India must aim to protect our national interest in the region from Suez Canal to Straits of Malacca and Cape of Good Hope and gradually reach out to our “area of influence” up to Pacific and South China Sea. Basically Indian Navy and Air Force together and not independently should be capable enough to protect our interests. Indian Army must resist the temptation to get involved in the affairs of other countries as part of any military alliance, except our commitments to the United Nations.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

So far India has been successful in keeping away from any military alliance. Our forces operate outside India only under UN flag. USA will be keen to co-opt India in Afghanistan post 2014 (as we were invited to join US alliance in lraq in 2003) and may be in North African Region. We must remain firm and resist all temptations. Thanks to the political, diplomatic, ideological leadership, India’s security and defence philosophy and strategy became over-focused towards Pakistan. In doing so unfortunately we totally ignored our bigger adversary and competitor China. For long we ignored our Eastern and Northern theatre of operations spreading from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh. The neglect was to such an extent that some areas and formations were relegated to the “operational status of Priority Three” for infrastructure development, defence preparations and procurement. This impacted the “operational philosophy”. The philosophy was “let us deal with Pakistan first, we will contain China later”. It is this flawed philosophy and orientation that time and again gave opportunity to China to develop and expand infrastructure, combat capacity and combat capability against India right from Arunachal Pradesh to Karakoram Pass in Ladakh and even in PoK. May be it was part of grand strategy jointly formulated by China and Pakistan against India. No wonder China is almost 30 years ahead of India in capacity building along disputed territory and was very keen to “freeze” capacity building and combat potential building by both sides. Fortunately India did not fall prey to such offer during the visit of our Prime Minister to China in October 2013. It is this inbuilt weakness of India’s security mechanism which encouraged China to enhance her hold an area of influence all along under a cleverly-designed phrase of “the historical problem” and “different perceptions” about territorial claims!! China has cleverly increased the area of control, area of domination and area of influence from Karakoram Pass to Daulat Beg Oldi to Arunachal Pradesh. One wonders as to who will be accountable and answerable for such a ground reality? There are powerful elements within our governing mechanism which are convinced that they will be able to negate and neutralise combat superiority of China at political and diplomatic level, which was the thinking before China’s aggression on India in 1962.

Downsizing

Barring few exceptions, all over the world the trend since 1988 has been to reduce the defence expenditure. Many countries in the Western World have reduced the armed forces and connected defence expenditure. The strength of British Army, French Army, Navy, Air Force has been reduced. Even the USA and China are in the process of restructuring and reorganising the armed forces. China is in the process of reducing the fat from PLA. USA is in the process of relocating combat asset in Pacific Region. British Empire is struggling hard to remain United Kingdom! One of the causes of dismemberment of Soviet Union was the heavy burden on the economy of Soviet Union to maintain super power status. We must always remember that “Economic security of a nation is the first form of security. Everything else flows out of that”. And therefore armed power supported by adequate industrial and economic power constitutes the only safeguard against any threat to country’s security, safety, stability, independence and overall well-being. In Indian context the word “largest” must be replaced with “most efficient” in

all organs of governance including security and defence.

India’s Security Mechanism

An indepth, honest and unbiased examination of India’s security mechanism, its uncontrolled, unplanned growth as a result of our knee-jerk reaction to sudden shocks to our national governance and security doctrine (if we have any) has become an impelling sine qua non. At philosophical, doctrinal, strategic level we feel shy of carrying out Anticipatory Threat Analysis and prepare ourselves and our nation to meet the emerging threats while these are in a state of infancy. We allow them to grow bigger and more dangerous and then call upon the Armed Forces to control the situation! The Army, Navy, Air Force also need to look inward and carry out honest critical self-assessment, since no other organ in our governing mechanism is capable of concluding a performance audit of defence mechanism. There are enough ornamental and ceremonial organisations within defence mechanism which do not alter any combat advantage. This valuable human resource can be redeployed, reorganised to improve combat potential and combat capacity. This will reduce the demand for additional manpower / human resource.

What Is The Way Ahead?

 There is enough “fat”, “obesity” all over. There is an urgent need to reduce the fat and obesity before the security and defence mechanism suffers a “heart attack” like Kargil, Parliament attack, 26/11 and recent intrusion, armed ingress and terrorist attack across Line of Actual control between India and China. In any case there seems to be an impression (may be wrong) in the decision-making, policy making bodies about the PoK, Aksai Chin and some parts of Arunachal which are under our adversaries’ illegal possession and control ever returning to India’s possession. Successive governments and their advisers are playing for time under various pretexts. There is a ruling philosophy: “things will be forgotten or get resolved with passage of time, or we cannot take harsh decision during our party rule; let the difficult issues be resolved by coming generations, these are the historical problems and so on … Everyone in “Expert Groups” speaks of “future challenges” from our adversaries, (which of course is necessary), but has any one in any forum of decision-making and governance ever spoken as to what will happen to Indian land, Indian territory under illegal and adverse possession of our adversaries?  A slim, trim, agile, alert, proactive and combat worthy mechanism is urgently needed; firstly to prevent a war (launched by our adversaries), conflict, terrorist attack or communal violence. In case we get caught again like Kargil, Parliament Attack, 26/11, intrusion in Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh, we should be able to respond immediately “with whatever we have” and not “whatever we want”. In any case learning from our past experience it is reasonable to assume that “whatever we want” will always come after the war / conflict is over and not before the commencement of war or emergence of conflict. The essence of capable

and sound leadership lies in ensuring desired and good results with whatever we have. That is true professional calibre and excellence.  There is an urgent need to cut or disband ornamental, ceremonial, recreational organisations (fat) which are part of Defence and Security mechanism. How many powerful, combat worthy, effective nations across the world have such organisations as part of their saecurity and defence mechanism?  There is a need to impose a strict ban on manpower accretion at least for ﬁve years to start with which can be extended to another ﬁve years. Manpower should not be confused with “human resource”. “Human resource” is created or generated out of existing manpower. The professional calibre of leadership should be measured based on conversion of manpower into “combat worthy human resource”.  Our national vision, philosophy orientation, strategy, policy for infrastructure development in border and coastal region should be to meet the emerging threats from more powerful adversary. If we are powerful enough, combat worthy with a sustainable national endurance to respond to, or face a bigger adversary, we can always take care of smaller adversary. China is preparing to replace USA as world’s only super power by 2030. Once China is powerful enough to take care of USA, India will get accounted for automatically. Without getting caught, trapped by “honorary degree of status of regional power” offered by Western countries, India’s focus and orientation must be to face the bigger adversary. However while dealing with smaller rival or adversary who claims “India to be the only enemy in the world” nuclear bomb to be used only against India and jihad against Indians “we must remember the philosophy of Chanakya that weak have one very strong weapon in their hands, the errors of those who think they are strong”. Al Qaeda, Taliban, Osama bin Laden were not militarily powerful, they were weak, but they had full knowledge of weakness of America’s security mechanism. Same was the case with Pakistan while planning terrorist attack on India’s Parliament and 26/11.  There is a need to shift our focus from “mechanised” to “avionics”. In the 21st century warfare avionics will play a major role. Avionics will have the capacity and capability to switch over from mountains to deserts and other types of terrain. It will not be so in case of Mechanised Combat Capability. The employability will be limited to Rajasthan and Punjab and the area towards Pathankot and Jammu Sectors. We should retain the present combat strength but there is just no need to increase it further.  There is a need to recognise, re-orientate and re-focus our

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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combat elements in task and mission oriented formations up to Brigade and Division.  There is a need to control the temptation to raise more headquarters like Corps and Command. HQs do not win a war or combat. Our historical combat experience shows and proves beyond doubt that professionally unsound, wanting, ineffective and incapable leadership at higher levels always brought combat defeat and professional disrepute to our nation. I do not wish to go into speciﬁc details. It is the cutting edge, junior and middle level leadership duly guided by professionally sound higher leadership which saved the situation and retrieved adverse fallout.  The focus and overall emphasis should be towards in-house readjustments, reorientation, redeployment of human resource and reorganisation of existing strength.

Manpower Control

While serving at Army HQ New Delhi as Additional Director General, Perspective (Strategic) Planning; based on the directive given by the Vice Chief of the Army Staff, who later became Chief of the Army Staff of Indian Army; with due consultation with Additional Director General Manpower Planning, Additional Director General of Staff Duties and Financial Planning, we had worked out reduction of 50,000 persons in the Army. Initial figure was 85,000, but later it was reduced to 50,000; (termed as temporary suspension). The aim was to cut out the fat and generate financial saving to make up the deficiencies in equipment and infrastructure. Initially this was to be tried for five years. This was an in-house exercise with due understanding with Ministry of Defence. There was tremendous resistance from within, to even reduce just ten soldiers. Standard answer was from different directorates “not during my time and over my dead body”. The reasoning was that any reduction will adversely impact “combat power”. The fat was to be reduced from supporting arms and services, with no impact whatsoever on promotions and career advancement. A way was found to control recruitment for those arms and services where the “fat” was too obvious to be hidden. In the bargain I became very unpopular for enforcing the decision. This was probably the first and the last attempt to reduce the manpower in Indian Army. We were convinced that despite this temporary suspension neither Pakistan nor China will attack India! Fortunately for some, I moved out from Army HQ on promotion, to the role of Lt Gen and the entire process was stalled successfully. Just a few months later Kargil occurred. The entire process was not only stopped, but more strength was added to Indian Army! There is a need to consider human resource ceiling at 10,00,000 for Army and similarly for other Services. Money saved be permitted to be utilised by Army, Navy, Air Force to make up existing deficiency and in-service infrastructure to improve quality of life of our soldiers, airmen and shipmen. The government must give a written undertaking that money saved will not be diverted for other purposes to gain cheap popularity and win few more votes at the cost of security and defence mechanism. On number of occasions in the past Army got rude shocks due to sudden slippage in financial allocation. This can result in lack of trust and confidence in our governing mechanism (not to be confused with political leadership).

global armies

SHEDDING FLAB

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

RISING FROM ASHES

Since India’s leadership at various levels and every aspect of governance is going out of the way to please USA under the banner of “Strategic Partnership” it is important and will be useful to consider the harsh truth frankly stated by Secretary of Defence on 10 September 2001 (just one day before 9/11). He was speaking about the bureaucratic inefficiency in USA. He said: The inefficient bureaucracy poses serious threat to National Security. Bureaucracy is adversary. Not the people, but the process. Not the civilians, but the systems. Not the men and women in uniform, but the uniformity of thought and the action we impose on them!! How true he was then! Are we any different today in India?! I am very positive the masterminds of 9/11 attack did not get encouraged by the statement of Secretary of Defence of USA made on 10 September 2001. They were planning for 9/11 since 1995. I have enough reasons to be sure and I stand by my analysis. The important issue is can we learn from the above statement made on 10 September 2001 at least in 2013-2014? My experience of four decades in dealing with civil and police officials in different parts of India at different levels, in my different ranks and appointments is that there is absolutely nothing wrong with bureaucrats, (no matter which clothes and uniforms they wear), the problem is with “bureaucracy” which is a system of functions and state of mind. To conclude, it would be useful to always remember that wars and conflicts will always be with us till humankind survives. The causes, forms, format of war and conflict may change but these will remain with us. We must recognise and accept wars to be one of the mankind’s most enduring endeavours. Our children, coming generations and their children must learn to defend themselves and secure themselves. If we anticipate and prepare from now, if we can anticipate the nature of tomorrow’s challenges, conflicts, patterns of warfare, recognise, restructure our security and defence mechanism and we begain to counter new dangers (for this there will be a need for more frequent doctrinal revisions), perhaps that future world, emerging world may be safer, than what we have witnessed and what we are witnessing. Indian subcontinent has seen more than its share of wars and conflicts and also human misery in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal. Slowly the wind is moving towards China. Can India and China remain good neighbours? Would China like to learn from India’s experience and prevent bloodbath in China. We can see the symptoms now developing in China. Finally, as I stated earlier and repeat again the advice of Chanakya: If you know your adversary and if you can deter them, you will live in peace for hundred years!! You cannot deter your adversary with extra, avoidable fat on your body, a sluggish, ineffective physical structure, but you can deter your adversary with a trim, slim, active, agile, rugged and robust structure.

PROF PL DASH

The writer is Professor of International Relations and ICCR India Chair, University of World Economy and Diplomacy, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.

RESURGENT

RUSSIAN MILITARY

ew countries in the world have the tradition of maintaining and sustaining a mighty army. Since the time of Peter the Great, Russia has an established military tradition of a great power. With the tide of time it has fought many wars; won some and lost others, but the tradition is transcendental and continues to inspire young Russians in the ethos of their military generals. The war with Napoleon in 1812, the Crimean War of early 1850s, the Russo-Japanese war of 1905, the First World War of 1914-1918 and the Second World War of 1939-1945 are few inspiring examples. Beyond the Second World War, Russia possessed too the glory and glamour of a military super power whose status was struck down to nothingness by Soviet demise. Without any visible signs of a precipitous decline, leading to collapse of a great power, when the Soviet Union fell apart in December 1991 with the weight of its own internal contradictions, Ronald Reagan’s

‘evil empire’ suffered setbacks of its own follies. The worst sufferer was the Soviet Army – the leviathan of the super power – that perished without a murmur. Russia, the biggest and the most powerful republic among the ﬁfteen became its successor, but what happened to the army?

Soviet Army In Disarray

The Soviet sunset in December 1991 had clearly debilitated the once mighty Russian Army. Compulsory conscription was regularly dodged. The loss in Afghan War with an ofﬁcial ﬁgure of 15,000 dead and thousands maimed along with Chechen War engagement sapped the Russian Army morally and materially. The country that had never shrunk territorially from the time of Peter the Great, suddenly began to feel exasperating times of defeat, debilitation, defamation and degradation on all

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global armies

RISING FROM ASHES

His resurgence plan up to 2020 had four components: downsizing the leviathan to an effective force, modernising the military’s technological prowess, boosting the falling morale of the soldiers in all rungs of the military from soldiers to Generals and from marines to Admirals and revive the social prestige of the armed forces fronts. Russia could no longer be unctuous. If the naval might was any reckoner of military strength, Russia was at bewilderment. Of the four mighty fleets of Soviet era, the Black Sea Fleet was mired in the muddy waters of conflict between the Ukraine and Russia. With Baltic independence, the power of the Baltic Fleet was almost lost although Russia continues to maintain its naval and military base in Kaliningrad. The Northern Fleet has always been in the permanently frozen zone of the Artic. The only fleet that remained operationally effective is the Pacific Fleet. In all directions from the White Sea to the Black Sea and from the Yellow Sea to the Red Sea, Russian naval shrinkage was apparent. Yet Russia remained determined, indomitable and unsurpassable in military terms. It continued to occupy the second place after the US in arms export to rest of the world year after year and maintained its dominant position in world arms market. Russia realised that its military industrial complex was the most profitable sphere of foreign exchange earning; hence could no longer be ignored. Russia’s force projection was at stake. The glory and glamour of the erstwhile super power evaporated. But the arms industry remained intrinsically Russian. It was the only industry that was part of the globalisation process and Russia strenuously struggled to retain its position in the world arms and weapon’s market among other arms exporters – who happen to be the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. It is these five countries, which sell arms and weaponry to rest of the 200 odd countries of the world. Russia’s resurgent overtures to sustain its domineering military position in the world to ensure the status of its military force projection need analysis.

The Slump

Through the Yeltsin years, the Russian military industrial complex was plagued by political indecision, bureaucratic lethargy, shortage of funds, widespread corruption, inadequate research and innovation and loss of export opportunities. It was impossible to arrest the slump in defence production. Alone in 1992, procurement by the Russian Defence Ministry from military industry was cut by 70 per cent and the military was in doldrums was apparent when defence production in 1993 fell by 33.4 per cent. During this time, MiGs were lying unclaimed in the factory because delivery schedule was shattered. The factories went bust, employees did not get their salary, wage arrears piled up and workers’ despondence was at its peak. By the fall of 1995, Ministry of Defence’s debt to the MiG producing Nizhnyi Novgorod factories peaked at 42 billion Roubles. 400 defence enterprises stopped production altogether and another 1,500 plants were working part time. The situation with other weapons producing units was no better. Russia’s military

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industrial complex passed through as much difﬁculties as did civilian enterprises across the country in the wee years of independence. However, the only difference was that industrial enterprises in the civil sector were privatised; in the military sector they remained yet nationalised.

RUSSIAN ARMY THEN AND SINCE 1991

2011

3.7 million

1.1 million

63,900

13,000

Fighter jets

3,800

2,500

Military Bases

1,200

350

76,500

15,000

13,800

12,000

110

Total Strength Tanks

Fighting machines Fitted with guns Marine ﬂeet Subs ﬁtted with Rockets Tanks with 1,000 mm Guns Warships

Source: Argumenti I Fakty, No 2, (1627), January 2012, p 5

Gazprom To Defence

Few countries in the world have the distinction of possessing gas pipeline three and a half times the length of the equator, but Russia does. With a total length of gas pipelines running to about 156,000 kilometers and yet increasing with passage of every year, Gazprom’s gas distribution network is really stunning. Finland 100 per cent, Austria 75 per cent and Germany 45 per cent are dependent on gas from Russia. Despite all American efforts George Shultz put in the early 1970s to scuttle a proposed gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, it was Willy Brandt, who ensured that gas from Russia must flow to Europe. He prevailed upon America and provided the Soviet Union with pipes of bigger diameter so that the Siberian gas pipeline would connect Europe to Baikal and beyond. The Brezhnev-Brandt dreams materialised when at 13.15 hours on 1 October, 1973 Soviet gas from Gazprom flowed to Europe for the first time. Gas continues to be the main Russian weapon in its western backyard and dependent countries look to Russia for succour and uninterrupted supply.

fathom. Has anyone ever thought why the Soviet Union disintegrated, but Gazprom did not? Why all state owned properties were privatised, while Gazprom remained under state control? What was behind this mystery? When the whole country passed through the chaos of transition, Gazprom continued as usual, churning profit for the state and virtually sustaining the state with that profit. When the country’s 87 per cent of the GDP came from sale of oil, gas and metals in post-Soviet Russia, it is commonsense to gauge what role Gazprom played in the crucial years of Russia’s transition from Soviet to post-Soviet system. Gazprom continues to serve the Russian cause in a sense that it is the biggest defence Russia has against any enemy and its profits continue to oil all other Russian industry, including the military industrial complex.

North Calling

Russia’s endeavour to assert its military presence extends to the North Pole. In June 2007, Putin surprised the world by staking Russian claim to the North Pole. The saga of this astonishing claim began thus. A group of Arctic experts, who spent 45 days in the Polar zone, came out with evidences that the Lomonosov ridge has a direct underwater, continental shelf extension to the North Pole. As per UN Maritime Convention, the physical extension of continental shelf would allow a country to stake claims to the Polar zone. The Russian claim created an international furore with US Senator Richard Lugar claiming that the US will be at the receiving end because it has not ratified the UN Maritime Convention that has been pending since 1982. Other three polar countries Canada, Norway and Denmark expressed anguish over the Russian claim. Before the Russian claim came, all five countries had a 200 mile permissible economic zone from their coast toward the pole, but none ever reached it. Undeterred by the criticism of throwing territorial pretensions at its polar neighbours, Russian polar expert, Artur Chillingarov, went in a submarine, descended down to 14,000 feet below the seabed and put a titanium cast Russian tricolor firmly below the North Pole. This symbolised final Russian claim to the vast territory many times larger than

Speaking before both chambers of the Russian Parliament on December 12, 2013, Putin asserted: “Let no one have illusions that he can achieve military superiority over Russia” many small European countries. This also symbolised Russia’s growing military prowess, its resurgence, ambition and finite desire to treat the country in superlative military parlance. The North Pole has 10 billion tons of oil and gas below the seabed and plenty of diamond. According to a New York Times report, the “US Geological Survey has estimated that about 30 per cent of the world’s untapped natural gas reserves (about 509 trillion cubic meter) and 13 per cent (about 90 billion barrels) of untapped oil reserves lie in the Arctic.” Russia became cynosure of all eyes, when all these underwater wealth supposedly passed onto it by a single valorous act. It earned Putin the glory and the country its lost pride as a super power. The act was symbolic of Russia’s resurgent military might that sent a clear message to all around the world that Russia would not always take things lying low. It can flex muscle if need be. From Georgia to Kurile to North Pole Russia has demonstrated its stern presence in recent years and desires to be felt important everywhere. In the first week of December 2013, Putin ordered the Russian Army to strengthen military presence in the polar region of the Arctic and a week later, while speaking before both chambers of the Russian Parliament on December 12, 2013, he asserted: “Let no one have illusions that he can achieve military superiority over Russia.”

Southern Venture

Major financial allocation, mainly from the Gazprom profit, began to flow for restructuring the Russian Army under Vladimir Putin. Unlike his predecessor and mentor Yeltsin, Putin quickly understood the importance of the Russian Army, its hugeness in terms of time and space. It was the need of the hour to rebuild a fallen morale and ruptured ego of the Russian military. As commander-in-chief of the

Much water has flowed under the bridge since then. Russia has replaced the Soviet Union. It continues to hold the key of gas supply to Europe. Gazprom is one of the most feared institutions in Russia. Due to its economic strength it has been able to spread its wings to such fields as football clubs, newsprint business, insurance companies, pension funds, banking business, television broadcast and aviation companies. The intricate Gazprom network and its influence on the society are too difficult to

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global armies

RISING FROM ASHES

Medvedev was too candid when he admitted his country’s frailties by saying: “There is a need to learn, learn how science and success go in consonance. There is nothing to get embarrassed” Russian armed forces, he underscored the signiﬁcance of its revival, particularly after the Kursk submarine tragedy that buried Russian marines in watery grave in the Barents Sea and Putin watched helpless. His resurgence plan up to 2020 had four components: downsizing the leviathan to an effective force, modernising the military’s technological prowess, boosting the falling morale of the soldiers in all rungs of the military from soldiers to Generals and from marines to Admirals and revive the social prestige of the armed forces. Parents were unwilling to send their children to the war front in Chechnya and the Chechen War continued to take its toll. The Caucasus was in ferment until Putin succeeded in ensuring relative peace through a Kremlin orchestrated election that put the king warrior of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov in power after assassination of his father, Ahmad Kadyrov. As the Kadyrov-Kremlin duumvirate continued to rule Ichkeria, Georgia under Shaakashvili made the security fabric of the Caucasus fragile; and the Russian military has no easy escape route to disentangle itself from either.

Georgian Example

Yet Russia’s action in Georgia in August 2008 demonstrated the might of a resurgent military, no more meek, no longer weak and powerful enough to impose Russia’s will on others along the erstwhile prefectures on any exigency. A swift blitzkrieg of six days sobered Georgia from its euphemism of becoming a NATO member to remain grounded to the reality of its own military potential. The Russian Army sent a clear message to an expanding NATO that meddling on its backyard would cause bloodbath and not peace. This was Russia’s ﬁrst stern message in the southern direction

after the military slump and it had salutary effects both on NATO and Tbilisi.

Eastward Foray

Medvedev’s visit to Kunashiri – one of four Kurile Islands – in the wee days of November 2010 elicited sharp reaction from Japan. This was ﬁrst such visit by a Russian president to the remote border areas in the Far East that accentuated a fresh security debate on the already unsettled dispute over the Kurile Islands. Russia and Japan have been locking horns over four disputed islands – Habomai, Itorofu, Shikotan and Kunashiri – over which Russia had regained control after end of the Second World War. Japan had occupied these islands since its victory in Russo-Japanese War of 1905. In the welter of time, a series of events preceding a century the Kurile chain of islands has alternated possession between Russia and Japan. Currently under the Russian possession, the chain of islands, lying between the southern tip of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula and northern tip of Japan’s Hokkaido Island, is a protective security barrier to accessing the Sea of Okhotsk from the Paciﬁc Ocean. The divide lay open: Russia’s political and military leaders do not wish to eschew control over the Kurile and their Japanese counterparts insist on getting the island back; the stalemate continues. Three months after Medvedev’s visit, in February, 2011, Russia announced to arm these islands to bolster its security arrangement in the Far East – a clear indication of its resurgent military might.

Medvedev’s Ten Commandments

A visit to the US Silicon Valley on his way to the G-8 Summit in Canada in the last week of June, 2010 was all that took Russian president Dmitri Medvedev aback. He personally saw California’s working ethos – the melting pot that has assimilated workers and IT professionals from all over the world. It was very much unlike Russia lacking migration savvy laws for foreigners to permanently settle in Russia and work. Medvedev was too candid when he admitted his country’s frailties by saying: “There is a need

to learn, learn how science and success Medvedev’s third thesis relates He assured that Russia will go in consonance. There is nothing to get to property rights in Russia. The be partner to all who are president exhorts that Russian embarrassed.” However, Russia is not the interested to work with it in property laws are modern, but US. Russian Ivan is not the US Sam. joint ventures and projects, inadequate to address all related Both countries stand diametrically invest in Russia and trade with issues; hence the urgency for a opposed to each other. Yet it is from it. Russia will be a partner in all recast of these laws. The fourth here came the Russian president’s wish major international events and point Medvedev touched upon list to emulate a model for his dream city of innovation at Skolkovo in the play its role for stability and was his most favoured refrain micro-borough of Moscow. The objective about technological innovations. success of the country is how to tap the best talents from across Medvedev feels that Russia the country, if not from across the world and engage them in must be a leader of technological innovation thanks to innovation projects including military innovations. which Russia can create plenty of jobs for people in the scientific and service sectors. Fifthly, Russia requires a Education To The Fore strong financial system that would provide resources The president’s ten commandments for Russia’s progress for modernisation of the country. Given the country’s and prosperity came from far off California apparently strong base of natural and mineral resources, it has because he was highly impressed by the US achievements. huge possibilities of FDI to develop and there will be Medvedev’s pronouncements put enough emphasis no dearth of money. on education. The very first point states: “we wish that in our country, talented people get all opportunities for Sixthly, Medvedev draws attention to the health of the self-realisation. For this purpose a thorough overhaul of Russian population, increase birth and decrease death the Russian education system from primary to higher rates. For years since the Soviet Union broke apart, Russia education level is underway and a lot of funds are allocated.” was treating death as a way of life and losing out a million But education is so mired in corruption that it has not even people every year. Thanks to the many efforts undertaken spared the Highest Attestation Commission that awards by Putin, this sinister tendency has been arrested and research degrees. it is only in 2009 that Russia registered an incline in the rate of new born numbers. Five thousand more people The second announcement concerned information have been added in 2013 alone. Hopefully greater availability and freedom of expression in Russia. The attention to demography will help the nation stabilise its president is acutely aware of the closed Soviet system of population decline. yesteryears, when he grew up. Information monopoly by the state and media muzzling are quickly dissipating, Seventhly, the president dwelt on Russian democracy thanks to digital television and proliferation of Internet and frankly admitted: “Russia is not insured for political that would be accessible to almost 90 per cent of the mistakes, but will work in the direction of bettering Russian population. Wider accessibility of information its political system without any prescriptions from in the hands of the common Russians, Medvedev hopes, abroad.” Eighthly, the president highlighted the need for would help fight the biggest enemy of Russia – corruption. stability in the country. The past two decades were fairly mind boggling. The transformations were incredible. This was a period of flux and the country has slowly come out of it. The citizens sincerely wish to maintain stability because stability in fundamental to progress and development. Drawing attention to the unstable situation in the Caucasus, Medvedev called upon all those present in his Stanford University lecture to work with Russia to ensure stability. The ninth and tenth points of the president’s concerns were on Russian foreign policy, the unchanged and predictable course it would take in future. He assured that Russia will be partner to all who are interested to work with it in joint ventures and projects, invest in Russia and trade with it. Russia will be a partner in all major international events and play its role for stability and success of the country. However, a critical look at Medvedev’s innovation city project at Skolkovo underscores high government patronage, tax holidays for interested entrepreneurs and investors, competitive environment for all to trade, produce, sell, generate profit – and all this in an environment free of red tape. How and when Russia will achieve this is unknown. But observers tell a different tale: all good innovative ideas from Skolkovo help the military to be strong enough to defend the country and ensure stability for its progress.

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global armies

NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY that “India has lacked an ability to formulate future-oriented defence policies, managing only because of short-term measures, blunders by its adversaries and force superiority in its favour.” K Subrahmanyam had gone to the extent to recommend a high powered Blue Ribbon Commission periodically under an eminent civilian personality with high credibility like a Ratan Tata or a Narayan Murthy supported by eminent retired and serving service ofﬁcers, diplomats, scientists and intelligence experts to holistically analyse India’s defence needs and suggested that the recommendations of such a committee must remain binding on the government!

DEFENCE REFORMS FOR THE COMING DECADE

The status quo and pacifist mentality of the Indian mind is, perhaps, reflective of a primordial and philosophical orientation which is inconsistent with the security challenges which India now confronts in a troubled and politically unstable neighbourhood. It is worth reflecting that do we need crisis situations to shake us out of our slumber or do we formally and periodically introspect, analyse and put into place corrective measures emerging from a well thought out all-encompassing national security strategy?

eforms pertaining to national security are singularly important to confront likely challenges a nation may face in the years ahead. Reforms must not be knee-jerk reactions in response to emergencies, a national crisis or a major military failure but be time-sensitive, formally institutionalised and factor in a realistic and holistic mosaic of the current and emerging ground realities and challenges which are likely to confront the nation in the coming years. Thus Defence Reforms have to be conceived and determinedly implemented in the short-term, medium-term and long-term time perspective respectively. The noted American strategic analyst George Tanham succinctly expressed some years back that “Indian elites

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show little evidence of having thought coherently and systematically about strategy.” It is indeed paradoxical that an ancient civilisation with its heritage embellished in both the spiritual and the military, surviving the vicissitudes of time and countless upheavals, now a 66 years young nation, geographically located in one of the most violent expanses of the world, having fought five externally foisted wars since its independence, has in reality, hardly looked at its security in an institutionalised and systematic manner. The status quo and pacifist mentality of the Indian mind is, perhaps, reflective of a primordial and philosophical orientation which is inconsistent with the security challenges which India now confronts in a troubled and politically unstable neighbourhood. It is worth reflecting that do we need crisis situations to shake us out of our slumber or do we formally and periodically

Late K Subrahmanyam had gone to the extent to recommend a high powered Blue Ribbon Commission periodically under an eminent civilian personality with high credibility like a Ratan Tata or a Narayan Murthy supported by eminent retired and serving service officers, diplomats, scientists and intelligence experts to holistically analyse India’s defence needs and suggested that the recommendations of such a committee must remain binding on the government! introspect, analyse and put into place corrective measures emerging from a well thought out all-encompassing national security strategy?

Blue Ribbon Commission

The serious debacle and humiliation suffered by the nation in 1962 at the hands of the Chinese had prompted the then government to constitute the Henderson Brooks Committee to go into the reasons of the defeat. Its report, even 50 years after the event, still remains shrouded, inexplicably, in secrecy for reasons which are difficult to fathom. Despite the 1965 and 1971 Wars with Pakistan or even with Pakistan becoming a nuclear state in 1998, continuing border and maritime tensions with an increasingly powerful and belligerent China, no periodic formal security reviews were, surprisingly, ever undertaken. However, the 1999 Pak perfidy in Kargil which definitely did surprise the Indian establishment prompted the then NDA government to constitute an all encompassing high powered commission, the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) under the widely respected, late K Subrahmanyam to delve deeply into all aspects of Indian security. The latter, in one of his last interviews before his demise had succinctly expressed

Not many are familiar with the term ‘Blue Ribbon Commission’. Briefly, it is an independent and exclusive commission of non-partisan experts and eminent personalities constituted to look at any issue or concern of national significance. The term “blue ribbon” comes from the commission members being “the best and the brightest” in their respective fields. Many democracies, the world over, appoint such commissions to periodically look into their security problems.

Glaring Omissions

LT GEN KAMAL DAVAR PVSM, AVSM (RETD)

The writer is a distinguished soldier having served in all theatres of operations in his 41 years of service. A veteran of the 65 and 71 operations, he was wounded in action in the 1965 ops. Was the first armoured corps officer to be specially selected to be GOC Ladakh where he implemented many operational and logistical innovations. Has been Chief of Staff of a Corps HQ in Jammu and Kashmir and then as GOC 11 Corps responsible for the defence of Punjab. He was especially selected by the government of India to raise the Defence Intelligence Agency after the Kargil War. After retirement the General writes and lectures on security issues. He is widely known to passionately espouse the cause of jointness in the Indian Armed Forces. As the first DG, DIA, many intelligence initiatives including abroad were taken by him.

By any standards, the KRC ibid did a commendable job in comprehensively analysing and recommending measures to tone up security in India in all its myriad nuances and complexities. Most of the major recommendations of the KRC, further streamlined by a specially constituted Group of Ministers Committee in 2001, mercifully, have been implemented in letter if not in total altruistic spirit! Some critics of the KRC have, however, opined that its reforms “had failed to deliver.”

Ten years having elapsed since India’s ﬁrst comprehensive security review and increasing multi-faceted security problems both within and external in the country, led the present government to constitute the Naresh Chandra Committee on Security Reforms in 2011. This 14 member Task Force was mandated to review the unﬁnished tasks of the KRC Report and make suggestions relating to the higher defence management structure of the nation and also examine why some of the critical recommendations relating to intelligence and border management were found wanting. It is pertinent to note that the KRC had previously observed

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NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY Naresh Chandra Task Force and according to media reports, the government may be announcing this appointment in early Janaury 2014. The Special Operations Command, which this Task Force has recommended for synergising the special operations of the three Services, may also see the light of the day and be put directly under command of the COSC as also the urgently needed tri-Service Cyber Command as and when it will be raised (though not recommended by the Task Force yet).

that “the political, bureaucratic, military and intelligence establishments appear to have developed a vested interest in the status quo.” The Naresh Chandra Committee commenced work in mid 2011 and submitted its report to the government in mid 2012. Its ﬁndings since then have been thoroughly vetted by the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), the concerned ministries and the National Security Council Secretariat. A major observation of the Committee had been that uniformed ofﬁcers from the three services must be posted to the Defence Ministry in adequate numbers for the uniformed community must have a greater say in matters of national security. It lamented that despite the Service Chiefs and the highly specialised Services Headquarters staff being at their disposal for advice in the management of national security, the political establishment is totally relying on feedback of Defence Ministry civil servants, drawn from diverse professional backgrounds not even remotely connected with security matters. It is worth noting that even George Tanham had pithily observed a couple of years back that “India has pursued the policy of civilian control to a point where the military have almost no input at all in the formulation of higher defence policy and national strategy.” According to media sources, to include and enhance the status of Service Chiefs in the national security decision-making processes, the Task Force had also recommended amendments in the Business Rules, namely

The Naresh Chandra Committee had, surprisingly, recommended a slightly toned down version of the CDS by suggesting another 4 star rank officer from any of the three Services (making it a total of four 4 star officers) to act as a permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) and according to media reports, the government may be announcing this appointment in early Janaury 2014

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

the ‘Government of India Allocation of Business Rules’ and the ‘Government of India Transaction of Business Rules’ framed in 1961. Surprisingly, under these enactments, the Service Chiefs do not even ﬁnd a mention and the Defence Secretary, under these Rules is responsible for the “Defence of India and every part thereof.” In addition, the Defence Secretary is deemed to represent the three service chiefs in most forums! To any objective bystander or an ordinary citizen of India, such glaring and basic omissions are more than unacceptable.

Permanent Chairman of COSC

One of the major and widely endorsed recommendations of the KRC had been the establishment of the office of the Chief of Defence Staff, a five star rank officer, to act as a single point military adviser to the government and handle the tri-Services commands including the vital Strategic Nuclear Forces Command (SFC), Andaman and Nicobar Command, the Defence Intelligence Agency etc. However, the Naresh Chandra Committee had, surprisingly, recommended a slightly toned down version of the CDS by suggesting another 4 star rank officer from any of the three services (making it a total of four 4 star officers) to act as a permanent Chairman of the Chiefs of Staff Committee (COSC) and according to media reports, this appointment will also replace the Defence Secretary to render tri-Service advice to the government – an aspect which will now naturally meet with stiff resistance from South Block ‘babus’. Among the three services, as is widely known, the Indian Air Force, for not very professional reasons, was in opposition to the CDS concept (mentioned to me also personally some years back by a former senior Cabinet Minister), a posture which also suited Defence Ministry bureaucrats. Even the government has stated its position on the CDS, time and again, that “the views of political parties are being ascertained.” Thus in the absence of total unanimity on the decision to have a 5 star rank CDS, some security analysts feel that the committee’s recommendation can be temporarily agreed to and utilised, in the interim, for energising cohesion among the three Services. However, at the recently concluded Combined Commanders Conference, the three Service Chiefs have now categorically conveyed to the government their unanimous agreement on the appointment of a permanent Chairman Chiefs of Staff as was recommended by the

It brooks no emphasis to state that the elements, instruments, spectrum of potential conflicts and all determinants of national defence and security need to be regularly studied. Our security planning must cater for the complete spectrum of conflicts ranging (in ascending order) from aid to civil authority, disaster management, counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations, combating proxy wars, executing expeditionary operations, conduct of varying levels of conventional war to a war involving weapons of mass destruction. Military doctrines, combat profiles, force structuring and induction of new state-of-the-art weaponry, information and cyber warfare, psychological warfare, intelligence operations and now space warfare apart from research and development in weapons and equipment et al need to be thoroughly deliberated upon in comparison with capabilities of likely adversaries. It must never be lost sight of that the Indian armed forces have a two-and-a-half front obligation(China, Pakistan and internal security) – even all together in a worst case scenario. It must also be appreciated by all that very large armed forces like the Indian military, which encompass multi-dimensional strategic forces including land, sea, nuclear and aerospace, cannot be left to the whims and fancies of any single service and have to be deployed and operationally employed in an integrated manner for which jointness, unity in thought and action and economy of effort among the three services is sine qua non. This is only possible with a CDS overseeing the entire gamut of operations and other aspects of all the three Services as is the practice in the powerful military nations of the world. One day, I pray that a strong pan India political leader, will also address the problem of true jointness for the Indian armed forces, over-ride any individual Service parochialism and get the three Services to truly integrate for the larger national good besides eliminating bureaucratic sluggishness that is endemic to the Indian state. Systemic flaws in our security establishment require resolute addressal.

Army In Command of LAC

The Naresh Chandra Committee had reportedly also made many more useful recommendations. It correctly had opined that India must prepare militarily to deal with an assertive China as it also simultaneously seeks to enhance cooperation in diverse ﬁelds with it. It notes that China will continue to utilise Pakistan as part of its grand strategy for containing India in a “South Asian box.” It has suggested that the Indian Army be given management of the Indo-Chinese borders and retain overall operational control over all forces deployed on the Sino-Indian border. The Naresh Chandra Committee, had further opined that Pakistan remains unable and unwilling to set its house in order. Its army continues with its myopic and self-destructive

The Naresh Chandra Committee had also made sound recommendations regarding better liaison between the MoD and the other ministries like the MHA and MEA by various institutionalised measures. This committee has also stressed the need for an agency to tackle militancy and terrorist activities across the nation – perhaps alluding to a set-up like the widely debated National Counter Terrorism Centre which some states in India have been opposing till date policies of using Islamic / Taliban terror groups to promote terrorism in India and Afghanistan and seeks strategic depth in the latter. The committee has recommended that India must employ all political, diplomatic, economic and military measures to ensure that Afghanistan does not fall a victim to Pakistani efforts to convert Afghanistan into a fundamentalist vassal state. As is universally acknowledged, Pakistan is making all out efforts to establish a pliant extremist regime in Kabul after the US and NATO forces depart, as planned, from the land of the Hindu Kush in 2014. In addition, the Pakistanis do not wish India to continue even with its humanitarian and developmental activities in Afghanistan and this aspect needs more than resolute factoring by the Indian state in its formulations for the region next year. That Pakistan and its infamous ISI will make all efforts to divert out of work terrorist elements from Afghanistan into Jammu and Kashmir after the US drawdown from Kabul is a foregone conclusion.

Synergy Between Ministries

The Naresh Chandra Committee had also made sound recommendations regarding better liaison between the MoD and the other ministries like the MHA and MEA by various institutionalised measures. This committee has also stressed the need for an agency to tackle militancy and terrorist activities across the nation – perhaps alluding to a set-up like the widely debated National Counter Terrorism Centre which some states in India have been opposing till date. Importantly, once the CCS and the GoI fully clear the Report and any other suggestions for improving national security formally, the government must ensure its speedy and faithful implementation. The Prime Minister himself has expressed that “as we look around us, a net deterioration in the international strategic and security environment becomes too obvious.” In addition, Dr Manmohan Singh has strongly opined that India must become a “net provider for security in the region.” It is thus time the Indian state not only becomes sensitive to the many formidable security challenges it will face in the foreseeable future but be more than prepared to successfully confront them as it gears itself for a larger regional and global role. Accordingly, it is imperative that the nation carries out a holistic review of all aspects of security, periodically, say on the lines of the Central Pay Commissions every 10 years and after due analysis, faithfully implements the relevant recommendations for the armed forces and other security and intelligence organs of the state.

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TECHNOLOGY AND SOLDIERING troops who survived initial explosion being in sheltered positions. Nuclearised battleﬁeld environment, therefore, will need more of engineers, reserve food and water supplies, medical services, repair and replacement services and reserves of manpower.

Gas And Chemical Weapons

FACTORS AFFECTING FUTURE MILITARY STRUCTURES

Cooperation and joint planning will be required to decide about the balance of weapon mix and future technological developments are likely to offer many an alternative. Warfare is getting sophisticated and complex day by day and new developments in military science will call for greater integration among the three Services.

rganisations of armies, all over the world, have been inﬂuenced by technological developments. In fact, technology and soldiering are closely interwoven. In the European theatre, the Roman Armies became famous because of their new weapons of war and measures they took to enhance the mobility of their armies. Their smart small swords, compact and all supporting battle formations, ability to move over all types of terrain, resting in well defended fortresses and simple logistic systems enabled them to defeat any adversary and hold captured territories with very little forces. On the contrary, failure to appreciate the ﬁrepower of the long bow led to the French cavalry to disaster at Agincourt. Similarly, failure to appreciate the potential of machine gun, barbed wire and heavy artillery resulted in massive slaughter during the First World War. Even in our case, the failure to recognise the full implications of the aeroplane, led Indian armed forces to humiliating defeat against the Chinese during the 1962 war.

New Weapons

Today, the problem is more complex because of tremendous momentum gained by invention of ﬁre arms. The atom bomb ended the Second World War but it was never used tactically. Nerve gases, although discovered, were never used, space based weapons were not thought of and neither there was

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

any knowledge of cyber terrorism – the high technological form capable of causing immense damage to infrastructure without ﬁring a single bullet. These new weapons will be to the next war what the tanks and the aeroplanes were to the First World War and their impact will bring about even more radical changes in strategic and tactical thoughts as well as the organisations of global armies, Herman Kahn said nearly 60 years ago, “The uncertainties and risks of the future are increased by the mounting race of technological progress … progress is so fast, the problems are so unprecedented and the lead times for cultural assimilation so long, that it is difﬁcult to believe that we will understand our systems well enough …”

Nuclear Weapons

Use of tactical nuclear weapons is well on the card in the next war as more and more armies are getting equipped with these weapons. Technological advances have provided means to deliver them in the immediate battleﬁeld as well as to places which are hundreds of kilometers away by means of missiles, aerial bombs, guided rockets, artillery projectiles and landmines, causing physical destruction and neutralisation by radiation. Heavy casualties will be inﬂicted upon bodies of men in the open. Impact on buildings and communication will cause massive destruction and blockage of routes. Radiation will put ground out of bounds and will necessitate relief of

Gas was used during the First World War to cause multiplying casualties to the adversary. But these were not sufﬁciently potent to cause lethal effects. Today, those countries who are dispossessed with nuclear weapons are in the process of developing nerve gases and chemical weapons. The world has tasted these weapons in Syria more recently. Effect of nerve gases and chemical weapons is almost identical to those of nuclear weapons. No amount of effort by world bodies will be able to stop their production and, therefore, any future war is likely to see and experience use of these weapons exhaustively. Provisions will have to be made for extra reserves and other services as are required for a nuclear war. It must be understood that chemical weapons are easy to make and we can expect them to be used in conditions well short of general war as it happened in Syria recently.

Technological Change

There has been an explosion in surveillance and target acquisition systems. All weapon platforms, from individual weapon to the crew served, have thermal imagers which can pick out armoured vehicles at 5 km range at night and during all weather conditions. Battleﬁeld radars today and those which are likely to come in service during next 30 years will be light, more powerful and easier to use with readily understandable displays. Remotely piloted vehicles which can traverse areas upto 150 km beyond the forward edge of battle area, will be freely available and thus will reduce requirement of sending patrols or asking for reconnaissance by aircraft.

Electronic Developments

Remarkable progress in the field of electronics has revolutionised the battlefield environment. Now we have small, light and easily portable radios capable of providing communications internationally. Satellite communications now provide communication whereby, although undesirable, Chief of Army Staff from Delhi can talk direct to the soldier in contact with the enemy. This will have large implications for command and control and may even make some of the intermediate headquarters redundant. We now have channel multiplexing, secure speech and data facilities and burst transmission. At the same time we must remember that an opponent’s as well as our capacity to disrupt transmissions has also increased. In short, there has been more progress in the field of electronic battle in the last 30 years than in the previous 150 years. These developments have made concealment much more difficult, causing serious implications for the movement of reserves and counter moves in depths. It is no longer possible to achieve surprise and even deception, keeping in view the variety of sensors to be deceived, will be complex and expensive in resources. As Herman Kahn has said, “Perhaps the most surprising thing that could actually happen would be an absence of surprises.”

Firepower

We hope to see, in future, artillery guns ﬁring beyond 50 km with much greater accuracy, better speed in action and rate

of fire. Multiple launching rocket systems will bring in large quantities of precision guided ammunition into the enemy’s depth. Artillery is getting equipped with missiles which can engage targets upto 350 km range and, to an extent, take on tasks and targets which until now were allotted to aircraft. There have also been equally revolutionary developments in Air Defence missiles and guns. Developments in anti-tank guided missiles, introduction of lasers onto the battlefield and development in mine warfare have caused significant implications for mobility on the battlefield.

Mobility

LT GEN OP KAUSHIK PVSM, AVSM, VSM, M-IN-D (RETD) The writer has been the Chief of Staff of the Eastern Command, Indian Army and a former Vice Chancellor of Maharshi Dayanand University, Rohtak, Haryana.

The most signiﬁcant development in mobility has been the helicopter. Today, it is capable of ﬂying trucks, weapon carriers and complete subunits, enabling airmobile air assault formation to overcome obstacles. It will enable force commanders to keep their reserve formations and units well behind and quickly move reinforcements of troops to areas where the adversary’s forces are leading to as also to close real gaps before the enemy contacts those localities.

Cooperation And Integration

Land and air forces in future will be required to participate in very complex battlefield environments. Success will demand full integration and cooperation between all the elements taking part in the battle. This will call for complete understanding of each other’s functioning. Armies that lacked this cooperation and integration were destroyed in the past and, in future, fate of such armies will be no better. In fact, cooperation and joint planning will be required to decide about the balance of weapon mix and future technological developments are likely to offer many an alternative. Warfare is getting sophisticated and complex day by day and new developments in military science will call for greater integration among the three services. In a happy development in this direction India’s armed forces have made proposal to the Ministry of Defence to establish three joint commands – the proposed commands are the Special Forces Command, the Cyber Command and the Aerospace Command. It will involve integration of assets of three Services and will be headed by a three star rank officer belonging, respectively, to the Army, the Navy and the Air Force. Infact, there is an urgent need to merge the existing operational commands of three Services and form tri-Service Theatre Commands and also create a Chief of Defence Staff – a five star general to coordinate the working of three Service headquarters at the centre.

Information Technology

Mass of information, which surveillance and target acquisition sources and improved communications make available to the commands, has created a ‘data deluge.’ If not properly ﬁltered, collated, analysed and presented, instead of being a help, it could prove to be an obstacle. It has to be timely too in a futuristic mobile battle. Special units and organisations will be needed

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

TECHNOLOGY AND SOLDIERING

to handle the mass of information available and disseminate in time to the people who need it. Computers will play an active role not only in performing the above requirement but also in decision-making.

Mass of information, which surveillance and target acquisition sources and improved communications make available to the commands, has created a ‘data deluge.’ If not properly filtered, collated, analysed and presented, instead of being a help, it could prove to be an obstacle. It has to be timely too in a futuristic mobile battle Militarisation Of Space

This has been going on for the last about six decades and military satellites now cover nearly half of space activities globally. Even communication satellites floating in the space can be easily converted into military uses. In fact, it is difficult to believe that a nation having satellite launch capability will not make use of it militarily. I, therefore, feel that next two to three decades will see much intensive weaponisation of space. Military satellites today are being used for communication, navigation, reconnaissance, surveillance, meteorology and electronic intelligence. In times to come, space will be considered by powers as a separate factor – “Space Power”. The US has declared a Space Policy the salient features of which include – Space power is as important to the nation as land, sea and air power; military activities will be conducted to achieve US national security objectives, interference with US Space Systems will be viewed as against US sovereign rights. Hence, dominance of space is their objective. While considering factors for planning military operations, achieving space superiority will be considered as a separate factor like the “air superiority”. Economics of developed states have become dependent on information which mostly transmits through space. Services that the space provides to developed societies like television, telephone, paging services, meteorological data etc have become an essential part of their lives and they will be compelled to take into account the security threats to these systems. Hence, the spread of conflict into space seems very likely. Developed states are busy, covertly and overtly, in achieving military domination of space. Armies all over the world are involved in recasting their structures keeping the weaponisation of space in view.

Cyber Terrorism

Computer based decisions and information and procedural

details contained in ADP systems will be made attractive targets for cyber attacks. Operation “Desert Storm” was the beginning where use of computers and satellites was made to destroy enemy’s will to fight – Iraq was totally defeated. It was again used in Falkland War – Argentina versus the UK in 1982. Future wars would be fought on exploitation of cyber spectrum – exploit what is known to you and paralyse information systems of the enemy. It will include cyber combatants represented by states, mercenaries, criminal organisations and ideologically driven groups. Cyber war against armed forces will be used in jeopardising command and control, electronic radars and missiles, psychological warfare and computer hacking. In computer hacking, the hacker may be sitting thousands of miles away and totally unknown to you and yet he may be totally destroying, degrading, exploiting or compromising your information systems – both military and civilian. Its prime weapon will be the computer virus. It was effectively used against Georgia by Russia in 2008 and more recently against Iran’s nuclear installations in 2010. Someone used a cyber weapon which caused a thousand centrifuges in Iran to self-destroy. Well executed cyber attacks can cripple a nation’s military assets and strategic networking, energy grids, banking, communications and entire information structure. Unlike missiles and bombs which can be traced back to an adversary, in cyber warfare the enemy mostly remains unknown. Several countries have set up cyber military forces to avoid deadly attacks that can come from anywhere and any time. China already has three “hacker brigades” and 30,000 computer professionals in its militia. China based online espionage gangs have been regularly accessing classified documents from several Indian security establishments. Judging the seriousness of emerging threat, the Indian armed forces have made a proposal to the government to establish a Joint Tri-Service Cyber Command to be headed by Lt Gen rank officer. I hope the government takes a decision soon in the matter and not leave the proposal “pigeon holed” for many years.

Continuous Battle

The days are gone, when battles used to end as the day ended. Night vision aids now allow operations to continue throughout the night and in any case ﬂow of information will not stop due to fall of darkness. It will be continuous operations day and night, without any stop, till the adversary is totally defeated. Continuous operations will have inherent implications. It will require sufﬁcient manpower to operate instruments and continue battle by replacing those commanders and staff who need to get essential sleep. It must be remembered that performance of individuals deteriorates sharply when deprived of sleep for more than 24 hours. Hence, trained force replacements will be needed and so will be the stockpiling of logistics and specially the ammunition, to sustain continuous operations.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The battlefield is not only getting extended in time but also in space in that along with battles being fought in forward areas, doctrines today emphasise battle being taken deep into rear areas by special forces. The US attack on Iraq more recently clearly illustrates the concept. Hence, Headquarters and logistic units in the deep rear must be prepared and organised to withstand the effects of battle from the very beginning. A Look At Future War During the limited wars that US fought in West Asia in last three decades, air emerged as the dominant factor in war and the decisive arm. Role played by long range missiles and blockade of seaports in breaking the enemy’s will to fight were equally important. Similar scenario is likely in the Indian environment. Three important lessons emerge for us to ponder upon. First, air power will need secure bases from which to operate. Those bases will have to be sited in depth and properly defended not only against the approaching hostile aircraft but also against the terrorist elements that will be at large in Indian insecure internal environments. Only the land forces are capable of fulfilling the responsibility. Second, the situation may demand whereby it is only possible to transport a land force to and supply it in its theatre of operations by means of air transport. This will call for heavy capacity fixed wing aircraft as well as heavy lift capability helicopters. Third, movement through sea, carrying our essentials of fuel and energies as well as supplying land war zones by sea, will need protection of our sea ports against sabotage and the terrorists. From the aforesaid it emerges that in addition to building up adequate air force, we will need well planned, prepared and trained land forces to guard against the terrorist attacks. It, therefore, calls for a review if a separate command, on the lines of the US, is needed for homeland security. Full scale nuclear war is not a possibility but the threat of destruction by nuclear weapons remains. It will, therefore, call for dispersal of forces and material. This may make constant regrouping of forces impracticable. Hence, theatre forces may have to be composed and organised on self-support basis. The lines of supply will be threatened with extinction and most of reinforcement, replacements and supplies even within the theatre will have to be carried by air. The scenario will call for excellent signal communications. Air transport may also be molested and hence, we may like to build upon aircraft capable of landing on the roughest and smallest of landing grounds emphasising need for heavy helicopters. Land battle may follow a course in which base installations, centres of communications, airfields and troop dispersal areas will get bombarded. Only rich targets would receive atomic attention, for it is unlikely that this weapon will be in unlimited supply and in any case our retaliation to such an attempt will be swift and precise. There will be a need to get maximum work from the minimum of resources and therefore, information of new army establishments efforts will have to be made to make the best use of its components. There may not be the time or facilities available to leapfrog headquarters and formations

From the aforesaid it emerges that in addition to building up adequate air force, we will need well planned, prepared and trained land forces to guard against the terrorist attacks. It, therefore, calls for a review if a separate command, on the lines of the US, is needed for homeland security due to highly mobile nature of battle. Flexibility will be personified by the commander in the manoeuvring within his theatre. Base installation will have to combat the difficulties of extreme dispersion. There will be dramatic increase in the ability on both sides to locate each other on the battlefield and in the accurate firepower they can bring to bear to neutralise and destroy what they have located. Surprise and deception will be difficult to be achieved in view of mass means of detection, surveillance and vision available and therefore, best form of security will be well planned, prepared, trained and rehearsed troops and formations to take to the battlefield at shortest possible time. Jointness of commands for better integration and optimum utilisation of resources will be necessary. Ministry of Defence needs to take an immediate decision on three Services joint proposal to create three commands – the Special Forces Command, the Cyber Command and the Aerospace Command.

Homeland Security Command

Homeland security needs to have separate organisations. Terrorist activities are likely to increase in India. Our neighbourhood will remain disturbed, resulting in providing safe havens to terrorist organisations. In the event of war with our adversaries, terrorist organisations will be super active. To allow armed forces to concentrate against major threats across borders, for internal security we should organise a separate command – “Homeland Security Command”. Battlefield environment of the future makes it necessary to consider the type of soldier we need to recruit. Do we need people who are more intelligent and technically aware? We will have to ensure that such recruits are also physically and mentally robust to withstand an environment of fear, isolation and casualties resulting in mental and physical stress. We need to get the weapon mix and balance between the elements of our forces right for the future. Need for more helicopters, more EW resources and more air defence weapon systems and missiles should be analysed in depth keeping the emerging threats and the nature of operations. Training of soldiers needs to be re-orientated towards new environments developing and specially in the technological field. The limits of technology are set not by the scientists but by the way the soldiers apply the equipment which they have been provided. We must exploit the potential of technology to the limit, but we must beware the technological fix which underestimates military skill and the human factor.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

EVOLVING SALIENCE

CHANGING NATURE OF GLOBAL ARMIES

In the emerging age of economic constraints, diminishing recourses and prohibitive costs, most nations are cutting down on large standing armies. At the same time, they are looking at exploiting technology for increased lethality of weapons with enhanced ranges and precision, concurrently optimising information technology to have smaller forces with network-centric warfare (NCW) capability. Downsizing of armies and modernisation programmes are being pursued in focused manner as part of revolution in military affairs (RMA). These being common to all armies, other changes in some of the armies are given in succeeding paragraphs.

US Army

British Army

Terrorist As Military Asset

The sub-conventional has emerged as the favourite in recent years, irregular forces having demonstrated greater strategic value above the conventional and even nuclear forces. Even the US and NATO forces have been battling irregular forces and themselves are now engaging in hybrid wars by optimising proxy radical forces available on hire, as evident in Iraq, Libya and Syria. Militarily strong countries like US and China too are employing sub-conventional means in terms of irregular forces and proxies. China is spawning Maoist insurgencies world over, engaging with Taliban and Al Qaeda and arming and supporting Maoists in India and Nepal, plus United Wa State Army in Myanmar are proof of this. Technology has also empowered the terrorists and many irregular forces, mostly state-sponsored, have acquired capabilities near comparable to conventional forces. These irregular forces are making good use of information technology and are well networked with modern communication. The advent of weapons of mass disruption has increased the lethality of terrorists and irregular forces.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Chinese Army

China has revealed the structure of its military units in its current Defence White Paper. The army has a total of 850,000 soldiers, while the navy and air force have strength of 235,000 and 398,000, China said in its Defence White Paper. The white paper reveals details of China's military structure. According to state-run news agency Xinhua, this is the first time such information has been disclosed publicly. China’s People’s Liberation Army is on a fast path to modernisation. It confirms information on the military’s structure that previously was only available from analysts outside mainland China: The names of the PLA’s divisions and brigades and the numbers of active personnel they contain, in addition to the missile line-up. Following years of double-digit budget increases, the military has acquired submarines and naval destroyers. Aircraft carriers and Chinese-made fighter planes are in development. It had already tested destroying missiles in mid-air during 2010. A great deal of information of PLA remains classified but the paper justifies the large strength due to “multiple and complicated security threats” facing China and China’s need to protect its “national unification, territorial integrity and development interests”. What is unique about the transformation of the PLA in military terms is that it is not merely a process of normal modernisation of hardware and software as a result of technological innovation at home and abroad. It is war driven, catering for particular external security threats, specific adversaries and anticipated combat modes. Additionally, China has been actively pursuing her plan of ‘informisation’ of the PLA.

Team DSA

he structure of global armies is changing not only because of the changing nature of warfare but because the dimensions of modern conﬂict are undergoing change including with the impact of technology on warfare. Technology has always played a role in warfare. Improvements in military weapons throughout history have forced armies to continually adopt new ﬁghting tactics to win battles and conquer armies. This is still true in the modern era where advances in robotics and targeting systems have led to smarter weapons with deadlier payloads. Technology has also enabled addition of space, cyberspace and the electro-magnetic as vital domains of warfare, which coupled with information advantage are the hallmarks of asymmetric war.

roughly 3,500 to 5,000 troops. Two additional brigades in Germany have already been scheduled for elimination this year. The across-the-board budget cuts known as ‘sequestration’, calls for some US$ 500 million in military spending reductions by 2022 although the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee is opposed to ‘sequestration’

The US Army Chief of Staff, General Ray Odierno, recently announced that the army would institute the largest organisational change since World War II by eliminating combat forces from 10 bases across the US as part of a planned reduction of 80,000 active-duty troops over the next five years, which he significantly described as the “tip of the iceberg”. The announcement supports the US Army effort to downsize the active-duty force to 490,000 as the military winds down from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The cuts were a result of the 2011 Budget Control Act that required US$ 487 billion in military spending cuts over a decade. This is the fourth round of budget cuts for the military since President Obama took office. Under the plan, the army will cut its brigade combat teams to 33 from 45 by 2017 at bases in Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, New York, North Carolina, Texas and Washington State. A brigade is

The British Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond announced in July 2012 that seventeen units are to be reduced from the British Army as part of sweeping reforms that will reduce its overall strength by 20,000. The cuts will require at least two more tranches of redundancies during 2013 and in 2014, which implies that soldiers will hear about their future at the same time as British forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan especially as the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mandate in Afghanistan has been extended till end 2014. The changes are part of plans to implement a new structure, which will see the army split into three; reaction forces, adaptable forces and force

troops. The reaction forces will be the army’s spearhead and will be trained, equipped and prepared for speedy intervention operations anywhere in the world. The adaptable forces will take over from the reaction forces, but will take 18 months to prepare for combat. They will be made up of existing full-time regiments and reserves. Underpinning both will be the force troops or “theatre troops” which will comprise all the units required to support the front line; artillery, engineers, signals, intelligence and medical corps.

LEADING

ARMIES US Army

French Army

France did away with conscription since the beginning of this millineum and it retains an all-volunteer force of 122,328 with reserves of up to 30,000. Though not a member of the America-led North Atlantic Treaty Organisation it contributed to multilateral operations as in Kosovo and Afghanistan and was involved in unilateral intervention in some of its former colonies like during the Chad crisis in north Africa and more recently in Mali. After withdrawing from NATO the French took the unusual step of forging military relations with its former tormentor (twice invaded by the Germans in World War I and World War II) with the creation of the Franco-German Brigade whose duties lay largely in Europe. Coinciding with the phenomenon known as the “Arab Spring” French foreign policy has shifted gears from the insistence on diplomatic means to end regional conﬂicts to military intervention either directly or through the use of local proxies as it did in Libya and Syria. However, Paris has realised that it could be playing into the hands of the hidden corps of Islamists operating under Al Qaeda and its splinter groups and has since moderated its actions in these trouble torn areas. However, it is not averse to toppling long-standing Arab regimes even while there is no clear direction that those it is supporting are true believers of democracy or just opportunists.

Chinese Army

British Army

French Army

Russian Army

Saudi Arabian Army

Iranian Army

Russian Army

The main structural change under implementation is a move from the current vertical chain of command of the armed forces, a military district-army division-regiment structure, to a military district-operative command brigade regime, in order to increase efﬁciency by abolishing redundant elements. Mobile permanent readiness brigades, consisting of battalions, will be capable of operating tactical manoeuvre groups, either independently or together with other brigades under joint command. In addition, each military district will establish rapid response brigades, which will most likely be formed out of airborne units. Other

Israeli Army

Indian Army

Pakistani Army

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

EVOLVING SALIENCE Israeli attack into Lebanon to undercut the inﬂuence of the Hezbullah was not the usually efﬁcient operation that Israel was known for.

Network-centric warfare (NCW)

The current size of the Israeli Army is estimated at a rough 133,000 active soldiers and 380,000 soldiers in reserve. This compact force has managed to get the better of its Syrian, Egyptian and other Arab enemies by dint of a very superior air force. Yet it needs to be remembered that Camp David happened because of general realisation that war will bring diminishing returns for all sides, inclusive of Israel. With Saudi Arabia ready to exercise it nuclear option, it remains to be seen how the Israelis will react. Clearly nukes do not ﬁre only in one direction and Israel cannot be sure that the Sunni-Shia conﬂict will remain focused on this schism.

Indian Army changes are primarily in the officer cadre and manning system, which has undergone a major transformation in recent years. With end of the cold war, it sufficed to downsize the armed forces by reducing the number of conscripts drafted into compulsory military service. However, higher costs of acquiring new generation of weapons and military equipment, combined with the longer training periods needed for soldiers to learn how to use them, created a need for soldiers with better qualifications. The transformation has conscription on diminishing scale; cutting the number of officer posts by nearly half and restricting recruitment of new officers. The plans include a manning system based predominantly on contract service but Russia could still maintain an army with a declared strength of one million soldiers, most of them conscripts. With the new structure of the officer cadre, it will be possible to mobilise soldiers in numbers corresponding to not more than 30 per cent of the peacetime force (one million soldiers).

Saudi Arabian Army

Saudi Arabia takes is role as protector of the Sunni brand of Islam very seriously. It is through the dispersal of the Wahabi strain of Islam through the Pakistan military establishment during the military dictatorship of General Ziaul Haq that the germ of Al Qaeda was created in the Afghan-Pakistan salient. Islamic fundamentalism of the Sunni-Wahabi variety was funded with petrodollars and patronage throughout the region. It is also the epicentre of the ongoing Sunni-Shia conﬂict throughout West Asia and the Middle East and at the heart of Saudi disillusionment with the American opening to Iran in return for a rollback of Teheran’s nuclear ambitions.

It is imperative that we resort to force structuring in synch with 21st century requirements. What we need is a fully NCW capable force. Emerging trends of warfare have greater emphasis on the sub-conventional. Force application throughout the war continuum must be at the locus of engagement with the enemy. It must be ‘Joint’ and could be virtual; not necessarily physical but including diplomatic, economic, information operations, military and economic domains

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

With an on-paper strength of 150,000 personnel the Saudi Arabian Army’s real inﬂuence lies in the thousands of Sunni militant organisations that receive funds and political support from the House of Saud. Many of the madrassas in Pakistan where the Taliban was created are funded by Saudi money. These operate as the vanguard against the Shias of the region. Many of these groups use improvised explosive devices for mass slaughter of Shias not just in the Af-Pak salient but also Iraq as well. This Sunni-Shia divide lies at the heart of the Saudi disenchantment with the US over its recent entente cordiale with Shia Iran. The Sunni nexus between Pakistan and the Saudis is very likely to fructify into the transfer of the Islamic Bomb – a Zulﬁkar Ali Bhutto formulation – and delivery of missiles from Pakistan to Saudi Arabia by the new Pakistan Army Chief Raheel Sharif. The Saudis had paid for the nukes as long ago as 2004 and these were held in trust with the Pakistan Army. The transfer is believed to have already begun.

Iranian Army

TheIslamic Republicof Iran army is a mixed volunteer /conscript force of 350,000 men with an equal number of reservists. After the war with Iraq, the Iranian Army has largely tried to be self-reliant with the creation of indigenous weapons platforms like tanks and missiles. As the fountainhead of Shia religious culture, Iran is to regional and global Shiaism what the Saudis are to Sunnism. Both are in mortal combat and as developments in the Arab world post the Arab Spring phenomenon both fund and mentor their respective ﬁefdoms to the hilt. How the Pakistani transfer of nukes and missiles to the Saudis will affect Iranian position on its own nascent nuclear programme has to be watched very carefully.

Israeli Army

Looking on is Israel which has never wanted any Arab nation to acquire nuclear weapons technology. It bombed the Iraqi Osirak facility and put an end to Saddam Hussein’s nuclear ambitions in the bud. There were reports that it was preparing to do the same with the Iranian facility before the Americans stepped in to try and broker a deal through dialogue. The Pakistan-Saudi nuclear deal will force Tel Aviv to some drastic action, particularly if the Sunni-Shia confrontation spilling over into the Syrian / Lebanon salient. It needs to be recalled that the

The ongoing asymmetric war being fought by the army precludes any downsizing of troops. Already, the teeth to tail ratio has been tailored down through many cuts undertaken previously. In fact, all the three Services of the Indian military will be engaged throughout the spectrum of conﬂict, the navy even battling the sub-conventional at sea and their installations / establishments on land. Moreover, states both big and small will continue to use proxies in pursuit of their national objectives. The thinking that sub-conventional warfare and irregular forces are only used by a country against a conventionally superior adversary is passé. Both China and Pakistan are actively engaged in supporting insurgencies within India. The internal situation may turn worse post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Additionally, while scores of police units have been raised and employed against the Maoist insurgency, these have not been very successful in battling the Maoists. There have been sporadic calls for deploying the army against the Maoists which mercifully have not been agreed to but there is no telling what the future holds especially if the situation worsens, including possibility of use of weapons of mass disturbance by the insurgents. More signiﬁcantly, India has not developed a deterrent against state-sponsored terrorism and for taking control of enemy fault lines, even as our fault lines are being exploited by our adversaries. Another equally important issue is forging synergy between the three Services including developing military NCW capability, which is going at snail’s pace. It is imperative that we resort to force structuring in synch with 21st century requirements. What we need is a fully NCW capable force. Emerging trends of warfare have greater emphasis on the sub-conventional. Force application throughout the war continuum must be at the locus of engagement with the enemy. It must be ‘Joint’ and could be virtual; not necessarily physical but including diplomatic, economic, information operations, military and economic domains. These national level applications must be in place 365 days and 24x7; even during ‘peace’ since the military continues to be engaged in low intensity operations. The army would require to continue as a manpower intensive and has to be equipped and networked for such operations with the internal security organs of the state. The navy is similarly faced with low-intensity maritime threats, heightened after

Asymmetric warfare

26/11 Mumbai terror attack and requires addressing at a different plane. The air force in support role will need its own force multipliers, interoperable with sister Services. Moving up to higher levels of the war continuum even the army will need to be more and more machine intensive. At the tri-Service / national levels, the far end of war would deal with the application of Ballistic Missile, Anti-Ballistic Missile Defence and Nuclear weapons. Each zone of the war continuum requires transformation and synergy with different instruments of state power and a differential in the level of man-machine interface requirements. Inter-Service jointness simply must be enforced as fait accompli.

Pakistan Army

There has been no major structural change in the Pakistani Army in recent years but the most significant one that should concern India is its increased radicalisation. It is no secret that infiltration of radicals into Jammu and Kashmir was undertaken by Pakistan in 1947 itself, which began the brotherhood between the Pakistani Army and radical Islamists. This has been gaining momentum since the loss of East Pakistan (now Bangladesh), the biggest surrender of soldiers after World War II (93,000 prisoners of war) and the very fact that the Pakistani Army has not won a single war to-date. Yet the army has remained in power officially for majority of the time and controls the reins of the Pakistan even when the so-called democracy is in place, even today. Pakistani military has nurtured powerful proxies today, the LeT having emerged as one of the prominent ones focused against India. The restructuring under the ISI being done is the mating of the Mujahid units with various terrorist organisations and regular troops. It is the Taliban-Mujahid combination that will target Afghanistan post US pullout. Needless to mention that both Afghan Taliban and Pakistan Taliban can be expected to join hands and the Mujahids will support them in the garb of Taliban fighters, as would regular Pakistani soldiers. On the eastern front, the LeT are being mated with Mujahids units, not that Punjabi Taliban would be taboo to join. So what India should be expecting to face is the combination of Pakistani regulars-LeT-Mujahids-Taliban tasked with terrorising and attacking, planning and coordination of which will be done by Islamabad. The continued radicalisation of the Pakistan Army has serious implications for our national security interests.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

sea power equations

INTERVIEW

UNITED KINGDOM DEFENCE MARITIME

TRADE MISSION TO INDIA

ndia and the United Kingdom have an enduring and mutually rewarding Strategic Partnership encompassing a wide arena of bilateral relations. India and the UK are leading maritime nations and Indian Navy and Royal Navy have a chequered history of collaborations and joint operations.

Constructor Rear Admiral Tony Graham BEng, MSc, CEng, MBA, FRINA, RCNC Director Ships, Defence Equipment and Support, UK Ministry of Defence was in India 2-6 December 2013 leading Defence Maritime Trade Mission organised by British High Commission Defence Section and UKTI DSO. Defence and Security Alert (DSA) was the media partner for this prestigious maritime mission.

Rear Admiral Tony Graham addressing the UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission 2013 delegates at Mumbai

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The relationship is very much a partnership. This is demonstrated by the breadth and depth of our annual bilateral activity programme.

Each year we conduct a bilateral exercise, high level engagement between senior ofﬁcers, subject matter exchanges and attendance on courses in each country. DSA: India has a vast and vulnerable coastal border of over 7,500 km warranting an impregnable security apparatus. What equipment and technologies can the UK offer to the Indian Navy and Coast Guard to secure our coastal areas?

In an exclusive interview with DSA at Mumbai, Admiral Graham shares his views and vision for maritime cooperation between Indian Navy and Royal Navy and collaboration between Indian and UK defence industry.

Admiral Graham: The UK has vast experience in protecting its shores, being an island nation. The Royal Navy is inducting brand new vessels into its ﬂeet, like Type 45, Astute submarines and shortly the new Queen Elizabeth Class aircraft carrier and eventually Type 26, all ﬁtted with state-of-the-art equipment.

Defence and Security Alert: Both India and the UK are prominent maritime nations with regional and global maritime interests. Please share the contours of Indo-UK maritime cooperation with DSA readers around the world.

The UK has a large defence industry with many companies specialising in systems and sub-systems, which are ﬁtted on new Royal Navy platforms and have huge experience in systems integration, all of which would be complementary to new build Indian ships.

Rear Admiral Tony Graham: The relationship and maritime cooperation between the IN and RN is based on a shared heritage and because we are both maritime nations.

DSA: Navies around the world are increasingly becoming prime movers for diplomacy and foreign policy. What role is the Royal Navy playing in bringing India and the UK closer?

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

sea power equations

INTERVIEW As the IN continues on its extensive modernisation programme and builds on its increasing blue water capability, with the induction of modern, indigenously built vessels there will be opportunity for closer cooperation between the two navies. The RN has extensive recent operational experience that it can share with the IN through exchange of

These companies from the UK are keen to share their technology with the Indian Navy and Coast Guard and are willing to enter into partnerships with Indian industry, either via the DPSUs or the private sector

Rear Admiral Tony Graham in conversation with Mr Pawan Agrawal, Publisher and CEO of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine

Admiral Graham: The RN and IN have a very active engagement programme. The former Indian CNS Adm Verma visited the UK as the official guest of the then First Sea Lord (1SL), Sir Mark Stanhope, in June 2012 and we anticipate a reciprocal visit to India by Adm Sir George Zambellas, the new 1SL, in 2014. We have had a series of ships visits to Indian waters during recent years including, this year, HMS Kent, HMS Westminster, HMS Bulwark, HMS Ecoho, RAF Fort Rosalie and HMS Illustrious will visit Goa in December. We also have officers from the RN attending staff colleges in India and IN officers at staff college in the UK. Our bilateral maritime exercise ‘Konkan’ is a feature of the RN annual exercise programme. This year the exercise was held in October, in the waters off Goa, with HMS Westminster and INS Delhi carrying out ASW training. There is also an active programme of professional training with officers and senior rates attending courses in the UK. In short, the IN and RN have a very strong professional working relationship that is based on a strong bond of friendship and mutual respect. DSA: As you are aware, India is in the midst of a massive defence modernisation and acquisition drive. The shopping list of the Indian Navy is also pretty long. Many leading UK companies are a part of your delegation. What kind of potential do you see for the UK industries in the burgeoning Indian market?

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Admiral Graham: Nearly all the companies on the delegation have their equipment currently in service with the Royal Navy on the new platforms. These companies are keen to share their technology with the Indian Navy and Coast Guard and are willing to enter into partnerships with Indian industry, either via the DPSUs or the private sector. DSA: The terrible tragedy of INS Sindhurakshak at Mumbai recently highlights the importance of Submarine rescue and escape. What kind of Submarine escape and rescue expertise and capabilities do the Royal Navy and the UK companies have which they can share with India? Admiral Graham: The UK has a company called James Fisher Defence that specialises in submarine rescue and were involved in the rescue of the Russian Pritz mini-sub with the LR5 vessel. The company specialises in training pilots to mate the rescue vessel with the stricken submarine, as well as building the submersible and putting in place the necessary complex logistics for a successful rescue. James Fisher Defence are currently one of two companies bidding to win the tender to supply two rescue systems for the Western and Eastern coasts of India. DSA: The ‘Konkan’ series of bilateral naval exercises commenced in 2004 and have continued since providing opportunity to both the navies to build interoperability and share best practices. What more can both the navies do to widen and strengthen maritime cooperation? Admiral Graham: The relationship between the IN and RN has grown in strength in recent years.

L to R Dr Glenn Kelly, Head UKTI DSO, Mrs Mamta Jain, Head Corp Comm, DSA, Rear Adm Tony Graham, Mr Pawan Agrawal, Ms Caroline Robson UKTI DSO

UKTI delegates

personnel, doctrine and procedures and future ship visits and exercises. DSA: Navies are also called upon to undertake anti-piracy, disaster relief and other humanitarian missions. What strategies and cooperation do you envisage developing between the Royal Navy and the Indian Navy? Admiral Graham: As maritime threats evolve so too will the tactics and procedures to counter them. Also, as we gain experience in dealing with natural disasters, such as the RN’s relief mission to the Philippines, we will be able to share our lessons learnt. The passage of such information will be done through our exercise and training programme

and bespoke staff to staff talks. The lines of communication between the IN and RN are very open with the day-to-day relationship being coordinated by the Naval staff in the respective High Commissions in London and New Delhi. The relationship between the IN and RN will only grow from strength to strength. I was extremely grateful for the Indian hospitality during the visit. We received thoughtful input from the companies we met and during the tours we made. I found India to be a vibrant nation and I was particularly impressed with the obvious pride and passion of all involved in the Indian maritime enterprise. So thank you for being such great hosts for the UK Trade Mission and I really look forward to returning soon.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

DISARMAMENT THE KEY the old threats continue to hang over the world and that many new ones have emerged.

Threats overt or covert

More than one agent may be used in an attack

Threats from weapons of mass destruction

Delivery systems include bombs, shells, spraying, mines, hand grenades, animal vectors (such as ﬂeas)

Strategic and economic targets -Administrative and key centres, animals, crops, food

NBC Threats

STRUCTURING ARMIES TO COMBAT WMDs It is time for all governments to revive their cooperation and to breathe new life into the disarmament work. Efforts to eradicate poverty and to protect the global environment must be matched by a dismantling of the world’s most destructive capabilities. The gearshift now needs to be moved from reverse to drive. 32

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

uclear, biological and chemical weapons are rightly called weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Designed to terrify as well as destroy, they have the potential to kill large number of people in thousands in a single attack and their effects may persist in the environment and in our bodies, in some cases indeﬁnitely. Many efforts have been made to free the world from the threat of these weapons and some progress has been made. Paradoxically, despite the end of the cold war, the past decades have seen more setbacks than successes. Few countries have failed to comply with their disarmament and non-proliferation commitments and terrorist groups have emerged that recognise no restraints. It is time for global armies to wake up to the awesome reality that many of

Nuclear weapons kill by the effects of heat, blast, radiation and radioactive fallout. The attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed an estimated 200,000 people, virtually all civilians. The nuclear weapons in one strategic submarine have a combined explosive force several times greater than all the conventional bombs dropped in World War II. Biological and toxin weapons kill by using pathogens to attack cells and organs in human bodies, although they can also be used to target crops and livestock on a massive scale. Some are contagious and can spread rapidly in a population, while others, including anthrax and ricin, infect and kill only those who are directly exposed. Toxins are poisons produced by biological organisms. Some (eg botulinum toxin) are lethal even in microscopic amounts. Chemical weapons kill by attacking the nervous system and lungs, or by interfering with a body’s ability to absorb oxygen. Some are designed to incapacitate by producing severe burns and blisters. Symptoms can appear immediately or be delayed for up to 12 hours after an attack. Persistent agents can remain in a target environment for as long as a week.

Resuscitate Disarmament

It is time for all governments to revive their cooperation and to breathe new life into the disarmament work. Efforts to eradicate poverty and to protect the global environment must be matched by a dismantling of the world’s most destructive capabilities. The gearshift now needs to be moved from reverse to drive. Biological and chemical weapons have been comprehensively outlawed through global conventions, but these need to be universally accepted and fully implemented. Nuclear weapons must also be outlawed. Before this aim is realised, there must be new initiatives to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and the threat posed by them. It is equally urgent to prevent proliferation and to take special measures to ensure that terrorists do not acquire any weapons of mass destruction. An effective strategy for countering WMDs, including their use and further proliferation, should be an

integral component of the global army strategy. As with the war on terrorism, our strategy for public security and our new concept of deterrence, the approach to combat WMDs represents a need for fundamental change from the past. To succeed, global army must take full advantage of today’s opportunities, including the application of new technologies, increased emphasis on intelligence collection and analysis, the strengthening of alliance relationships and the establishment of new partnerships with former adversaries. Weapons of mass destruction could enable adversaries to inﬂict massive harm on the countries’ resources, global economies, our military forces at home and abroad and our friends and allies.

Stigmata Of WMDs

DR VINOD JYOTHIKUMAR

The writer is a skilled Advance microscopy specialist and molecular microbiologist. He received his PhD from University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK. He has expertise in bacterial genetic manipulations, sample preparations and advance ﬂuorescence microscopy techniques. He also implemented and actively volunteered in educating general public about biosafety regulations, systems, procedures and training.

Why not discuss small arms, which currently are causing the greatest number of victims? Or napalm, phosphorus or cluster bombs, which may cause excessive suffering or have indiscriminate effects? It is not a question of either / or. The global army structure should focus on weapons of mass destruction, which is a big enough challenge. Other institutions address the problems of other weapons and methods of warfare. There are signiﬁcant differences in the use, effects, legal status and strategic importance of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. Nuclear weapons continue to pose the most dramatic threats. Some experts regard the differences as so signiﬁcant that they will not lump the three types of weapons together under the single term of WMDs. Nevertheless, as weapons of terror all three categories fall under the same stigma, which makes it logical to deal with them as a group. The three principal types of challenges posed by the existence of WMDs in the current security environment:

1. The challenge of existing WMD arsenals: The lower political and military tension between the great powers, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, largely remains. There are no major territorial disputes between the great powers and no one expects war to occur between them. Yet, they maintain or are modernising their strategic capabilities. The development of a shield against incoming missiles by one country is viewed with much distrust by others as possibly affecting the deterrent capacity of their forces. The nuclear de-escalation and reductions that have taken place so far are welcome, but one must be aware that part of this is only a removal of redundancies. 2. The challenge that additional countries may acquire WMDs: Some countries were made to retreat on this path. It is these cases that have led to fears that the NPT may unravel. While the world community has reason to be

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

DISARMAMENT THE KEY

Biological and chemical weapons have been comprehensively outlawed through global conventions, but these need to be universally accepted and fully implemented. Nuclear weapons must also be outlawed. Before this aim is realised, there must be new initiatives to reduce the number of nuclear weapons and the threat posed by them alarmed by these cases, it also has reason to assess the risks of proliferation soberly. The world is not milling with countries tempted to acquire WMDs as soon as the opportunity is there. Indeed, some countries have voluntarily eliminated the nuclear weapons that they had. An even larger number of countries have rejected any acquisition of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and are abiding by their commitments. They may do so for a variety of reasons: an absence of perceived threats, a lack of technical capability and a wish to join the global effort to rid the world of weapons that they ﬁnd abhorrent. The greatest challenge in the process of disarmament is to pursue political developments, globally and regionally, that make all countries feel secure without WMDs. 3. The challenge that terrorists may get access to WMDs: Past experience, suggesting that there is limited interest in these weapons by non-state actors is no safe guide for the future. Their use of WMDs could occur either within a state or across borders. In either case, terrorists must have their feet on the ground somewhere. It is important to insist, therefore, on the duty of all countries to prevent their territory from being used as a base for such activities. Where borders are porous or government authority is weak, outside assistance should be offered. There is broad support for many measures, like improved control over nuclear and other dangerous materials and strengthened international cooperation between police, intelligence and ﬁnancial institutions. Also needed are domestic and foreign policies that do not lead groups of people to turn to terrorism out of

a sense of despair or humiliation. The long impasse in the cooperation to strengthen global treaties on arms control and disarmament and to develop new instruments, has resulted in insecurity and vast resources being spent on arms races. What we now need are fresh thinking and fresh assessments of what could and should be done to revive the process.

The nuclear de-escalation and reductions that have taken place so far are welcome, but one must be aware that part of this is only a removal of redundancies

Mustard agent can cause cancers of the head, neck and respiratory tract, hematological malignancies, immune system dysfunction, infertility and birth defects in offspring. Long-term effects of nerve agents include neurological and psychiatric problems and cardiac arrhythmias. Fetuses are especially vulnerable because, unlike children and adults, they lack most of the protective mechanisms for metabolising or protecting against WMD agents (thus, rates of leukemia among the survivors of the Hiroshima bomb were far greater for those exposed in utero than for other age groups). There has been little study or acknowledgment of the long-term risks of WMDs, because people have concentrated almost exclusively on short-term problems. Long-term risks may be severe and life threatening, but the lack of recognition of the sequelae means survivors receive no help. Reducing these effects depends on deploying effective detection systems to alert to WMD risks, establishing systems for rapid responses with facilities for decontamination and treatment of casualties, providing information to the affected population and providing uncontaminated food, water and environment after an attack.

It is clear that a lowering of the WMDs threat requires many parallel and reinforcing approaches in the fields of arms control, disarmament, non-proliferation and anti-terrorism, at all levels – unilateral, bilateral, regional, plurilateral and global. Progress has been made over time and further progress is perfectly possible. Shortcomings in existing rules and regimes can be easily identified – in verification, compliance and enforcement. Gaps must be filled and what is broken must be fixed. This should be done, however, without breaking the consensus that brought the rules and regimes into being – above all, the basic bargain between nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament. While leadership and initiative by individual nations, including the great powers, have much to contribute in the efforts to counter WMDs, all countries are stakeholders and must be included in the effort. Just as peace and order in a nation are best maintained if the consent and participation of its citizens are secured, international progress towards peace, order and the reduction of arms, including WMDs, can best be attained through the participation and cooperation of all governments and peoples.

 The development of chemical science and industry as well as the rapid expansion in biotechnology and life sciences create opportunities for important peaceful uses, but also for the production of chemical weapons and horrific uses of viruses and bacteria as weapons.  The terror attacks on the United States on 9/11 demonstrated to the world in a flash that, if terrorists succeed in acquiring WMDs, they might use them.  The know-how to make nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and weapons-usable material – enriched uranium or plutonium, modified viruses and precursor chemicals – is available to a widening group of states and non-state actors.  Rapid changes in the life sciences influence the availability of the information and expertise required to make toxins and genetically modified viruses and other pathogens.  The existence of an illicit private global market where WMDs expertise, technology, material and designs for weapons could be acquired is a special threat at a time of active worldwide terrorism.  The expansion expected in the use of carbon-dioxide-free nuclear power will lead to the production, transportation and use of more nuclear fuel, increasing the risk that enriched uranium and plutonium might be diverted to weapons. Radioactive substances or nuclear waste not under full control might be acquired by terrorists and be used in dirty bombs – devices that disperse radioactive material to contaminate target areas or to provoke terror.

Given the wide array of WMDs and delivery mechanisms, preparedness for all possible events is extremely challenging. The basis of an effective response involves  Stay upwind and uphill  Monitor to identify agents (more than one may be used)  Decontaminate or isolate people affected  Give antidotes as appropriate for nerve agents  Provide treatment for bioweapons (antibiotics, vaccination)  Provide respiratory support if necessary (respiratory paralysis is a common primary event

that is often temporary), but remember that victims may pose a risk to responders who lack adequate protection  Good communication and coordination of information from pharmacies, laboratories, ﬁrst responders, emergency medicine and medical and public health staff  Deal swiftly with any contaminated food, water and environment to prevent casualties extending beyond those directly affected (the main cancers among survivors of the atomic bombs dropped on Japan were of the gut because of ingestion of contaminated food and water)  Preparedness measures include supplies of bottled water and safe food stored in non-permeable containers

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The long-term health effects of WMDs depend on the agent used, dose, route of exposure and victims’ genetic susceptibility. The Japanese atomic bombs resulted in cancers, infertility and adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Major reasons why global armies must refocus on WMDs and revive efforts to achieve disarmament, arms control, non-proliferation and compliance:

Management of mass casualties

Long-term Effects

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

THE DUALITY SYNDROME

PAKISTAN’S GENERALS

Pakistan to allow an Afghanistan led reconciliation instead of trying to manoeuvre the power structures in that country. If interference by Pakistan is stopped, peace prospects have a distinct chance. Peace in Afghanistan also holds a big promise for Pakistan and the entire region. The Iran-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline is waiting round the corner for just such a moment. Pakistan can become the hub for energy supply to India, China and even as far as Myanmar. Thus propelling the economies of these energy hungry countries to greater heights. Pakistan itself would ﬁnd jobs being created for its millions of unemployed youth, diverting them from extremism and pulling the country’s economy out from its continuing state of collapse.

IN A QUANDARY Yet another demon haunts the Pakistani Generals now. Since Pakistan’s creation nationalism in that country has rested on two conceptual pillars, Islam and India as enemy No 1. Generation after generation in Pakistan has been exploited on the basis of these concepts. Yet the Generals know well that the latter is more a figment of their imagination than an actual fact. It is not surprising therefore that battered by spiralling insurgency and terrorist activities, early this year Pakistan Army doctrine took a dramatic turn by defining enemy No 1 being “within”.

he Generals of Pakistan’s Army are in a quandary. On the one hand US’ determination to carry on with the drone war, unmindful of the Pakistani public opinion, gets the desired results in eliminating ruthless extremists such as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) Hakimullah Mehsud and his ilk. On the other hand the Generals can hardly heave a sigh of relief publicly at the death of the man who relentlessly drew Pakistani blood of civilians and army personnel. There is overwhelming relief amongst the people of Pakistan over the killing of the TTP leader, yet some political parties such as Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Jamaat–e-Islami (JeI) continue to deride the attack. Indeed the JeI has gone as far as declaring Mehsud as a martyr drawing severe criticism from the army. In turn Munawar Hussain, the amir of JeI, has slammed the army and warned it to stay away from politics. A long time relationship between the army and JeI is going sour. With Fazalluh, the new amir of TTP, announcing that he is not interested in negotiations and his organisation will continue to target the army and other institutions, loss of JeI support has set the army thinking. Wither should the Generals look?

from India was not downgraded, journalists and retired Generals conceded that it was high time Pakistan Army acknowledged the source of real threat to their country. Unwilling to step back from a mirage created and instilled in their minds, the Generals remain in a quandary, recognising the problem yet not admitting the whole truth.

The Wages of Jihad

Osama Shock

Yet another demon haunts the Pakistani Generals now. Since Pakistan’s creation nationalism in that country has rested on two conceptual pillars, Islam and India as enemy No 1. Generation after generation in Pakistan has been exploited on the basis of these concepts. Yet the Generals know well that the latter is more a ﬁgment of their imagination than an actual fact. It is not surprising therefore that battered by spiralling insurgency and terrorist activities, early this year Pakistan Army doctrine took a dramatic turn by deﬁning enemy No 1 being “within”. It has taken many long years and more than 30,000 Pakistani lives for the Generals to recognise the enemy “within”. Even though the GHQ was quick to add that the threat

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The dilemma for the army brass does not end there. Musharraf signed up with the US as an ally in its war on terror while surreptitiously backing the Afghan Taliban taking his ally and benefactor, the US, for a walk down the garden path. At the same time he used billions of dollars of US aid for purposes other than ﬁghting the war on terror. Never mind the assurances he gave to the US and NATO of his army’s sincerity in support of operation Enduring Freedom, his duplicity assured continued support to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. As the US realised the game Musharraf was playing, with Kayani by his side, aid to Pakistan and support to Musharraf were reined in by Washington. Events overtook Musharraf and he was soon cast aside. Kayani took over the reins and guided the destiny of his country through the quagmire of Afghanistan on the same lines as his predecessor. Struck by the embarrassment of Osama bin Laden being discovered living in Abbottabad in the face of ﬁrm Pakistani denials, the die against the Generals was cast in stone. Irrespective of the recent claims of normalisation of US-Pak relations, mutual trust has been severely eroded. With that has come yet another dilemma. As a determined Afghan Taliban carries on its jihad an equally determined TTP follows suit in Pakistan. Ominously it has extended its presence in Afghanistan across the Durand line. With direct links to Al Qaeda by both organisations and being mutually supportive of each other, Pakistani Generals have started to see the grave danger that lies ahead for their country. What if some years down the line TTP and

India Is No Enemy

What if some years down the line TTP and the Afghan Taliban join hands and decide to wage jihad in Pakistan? Indeed that could be disastrous for Pakistan, it portends an end to its very existence. Pakistani Generals recognise this possibility now. To continue their support to Taliban or to oppose them, is their biggest dilemma now. They are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Pakistani Generals are in a real quandary! the Afghan Taliban join hands and decide to wage jihad in Pakistan? Indeed that could be disastrous for Pakistan, it portends an end to its very existence. Pakistani Generals recognise this possibility now. To continue their support to Taliban or to oppose them, is their biggest dilemma now. They are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. Pakistani Generals are in a real quandary!

Strategic Depth

Then, is there a way to steer out of this mess to which Pakistan has largely contributed of its own misplaced volition? Yes there is. The very first step is to jettison the concept of seeking depth in Afghanistan. An idea that seized the minds of the Generals specially after they stage-managed the expulsion of Soviet forces from Afghanistan. Euphoric after their success and inspired by their growing nuclear arsenal, Pakistani Generals began to dream big. The thought of gaining control of Afghanistan by a similar strategy led Musharraf ambitiously astray. Unwarranted ambition inexorably led his country into the disastrous situation it presently finds itself in. If Pakistan has to recover from its predicament it should redefine its strategic aims in Afghanistan and indeed in the subcontinent. It would be far more beneficial for

MAJOR GENERAL AK HUKKU (RETD)

The writer is a former infantry ofﬁcer of the Indian Army. He was the Military Attache at the Embassy of India in Paris, with concurrent accreditation to Benelux countries. He was a divisional commander in the Kargil War of 1999 and subsequently was the Chief Military Intelligence Advisor in the Cabinet Secretariat at New Delhi. Later he was a Centre Director at the National Technical Research Organisation. Post retirement he has been speaking at international seminars and giving lectures in NY at the UN HQ, in Paris at the American University and Ecole Militaire, in Brussels to NATO ofﬁcers and IPC, in Germany at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation and to ISAF personnel and in Kuala Lumpur on various strategic issues of South Asia.

The next step for it is to firmly demolish the second pillar of nationalism: that enemy No 1 is India. The army’s doctrine of 2013 has taken a tentative step in that direction by recognising the enemy “within” as the number one threat. The embryo is in place, Pakistan Army has to go further and allow it to take birth. The Kashmir issue has to be settled amicably with India, terror organisations like LeT in the guise of Jamaat-ud-Dawa have to be reined in firmly. All extremist operations have to end, their training camps closed down. A new dawn has to emerge over the subcontinent if peace and prosperity are to replace the endless horror of death and destruction for want of a vision. Pakistan will find India going the extra mile if it moves in this direction. Failing which Pakistan could drag the region down into a vortex of violence and tragedy. Taking these decisions will not be easy for the Pakistan Army, but it is their only hope for redemption.

The ﬁnal step that the Pakistan Army must take is to reconcile with the fact that if democracy has to be nurtured in their country, the army has to step back. An elected government must take decisions on foreign policy, interstate relations and the path the country must follow to achieve national aims as decided by the parliament and the cabinet. Army should have no role in politics, undoubtedly a thorny path to follow. But this is the only option left for Pakistan now. Otherwise the Generals will remain paralysed in their quandary, paving the way for their countrymen towards an endless cycle of death and destruction. With a new Chief of Army Staff in Pakistan one has to wait and watch which way the wind will blow.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Indo-Russian partnership

HONOUR FOR A VISIONARY

RUSSIA AWARDS ORDER OF FRIENDSHIP TO DR PILLAI T

he President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin by his Top of Form Decree № 890 dated December 6, 2013 “On conferring state awards of the Russian Federation to foreign citizens,” has awarded the Order of Friendship to Managing Director of the joint Russian-Indian venture “BrahMos Aerospace” Dr A Sivathanu Pillai for his great contribution to the strengthening of friendship and cooperation with the Russian Federation. The Defence Minister Mr AK Antony has congratulated Dr Sivathanu Pillai, CEO BrahMos Aerospace on being awarded the ‘Order of Friendship’. Dr A Sivathanu Pillai, born in 1947, is the founder-CEO and Managing Director of the BrahMos Aerospace, a joint venture of the Russian Military Industrial Corporation “NPO Engineering” and Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) of India. For many years, Dr Pillai has worked closely with Russian organisations in various areas of military-technical cooperation. As one of India’s leading experts in the ﬁeld of rocket science, Dr Pillai has played a key role in the realisation of the unique idea of the joint venture “BrahMos Aerospace,” which is a world leader in the production of cruise missiles. Thanks largely to the purposeful work of Dr Pillai, brand “BrahMos” has become a symbol of the current stage of special and privileged Russian-Indian strategic partnership and a synonym of higher achievements, innovation and success in the world of rocket and aerospace industry as a whole.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Dr Pillai is an honorary doctor of several universities, including State Marine Technical University, St Petersburg. For his outstanding contribution to the development of science and technology, Dr Pillai was awarded the Order of Peter the Great by the Moscow Academy of National Security, Defence and Law, which also conferred on him the title of Academician. In one of his interviews, Dr Pillai said, “India believed our cruise missiles should be very stealthy, ﬂying at very low altitude and striking with precision. After seeing the whole World in terms of development, we decided to take the long road and go off the beaten path … selecting not a subsonic cruise missile solution, but choosing instead a weapon with supersonic speed. We think that the key to "future war" is speed. A supersonic missile needs a highly capable engine to reach the desired speed. This is why we focused on solid propellant technology.”…”This is a highly-guarded technology for any nation. So we found the way to work together in a joint venture conﬁguration. The name for this cooperation was derived from Brahmaputra and Moskva – two big rivers of our respective countries.” This is how BRAHMOS was developed and produced. And what a spectacular and world leading achievement it has been for BrahMos Aerospace and Dr A Sivathanu Pillai. Team DSA congratulates Dr Pillai for being awarded the “Order of Friendship” by President Putin and bringing honour to the Nation. All of us at DSA are proud of our association with Dr Pillai and BrahMos Aerospace.

global armies

PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKE

Conflicts between people and nations are nothing new. However, detailed analysis of and attention to, threat indicators has increased in recent years. If we can anticipate the aggressive actions of others by utilising accurate information about the precursors to those actions, we can substantially reduce our risk of injury.

crucial factor in cohesive security is awareness. Awareness pertains to individuals, entities or political cognizance. The ability to protect is directly connected to the availability, accuracy, understanding and usability of gathered intelligence. In conjunction with a successful action plan, the speed at which that intelligence is applied predominantly determines the outcome. The faster the information is relayed, the faster the reaction or response can be. Being aware is the ability to obtain information from the surrounding environment and situation prior to and during, an attack. This constant stream of proactive information gathering is in the form of what Tony Blauer aptly labels ‘Pre-contact Cues’ (PCC).

Anatomy Of An Attack

In the Information Technology and Security field, corresponding terms used are ‘Indicators of Compromise’ (IoC) and ‘Attack Precursors’. These industry terms are also applied to a military landscape or political state of affairs. Threat indicators are warning signs that exist everywhere around us and are in a constant state of flux; their transitional nature, constantly altering during states of offence, defence and neutrality, all of which are affected by actions and reactions, making them difficult to recognise. In global politics, threat indicators are sometimes less obvious or harder to distinguish between, especially in the events of a precautionary measure of mobilising troops, sabre-rattling or war drumming. Conflicts between people and nations are nothing new. However, detailed analysis of and attention to, threat indicators has increased in recent years.

As the ﬁeld of view narrows, reaction time diminishes respectively and planned movements are converted to responses as pressure then morphs those responses into reactions. The closer the threat is to the Point of Interception (PoI), the more the availability of choice is reduced. At the PoI, the preemptor has two choices: one is to strike back; the other is to do nothing and accept the outcome. If the defence strategy of offensive action is too late, this will change the balance of power. Preventing a sudden reaction by responding in a calculated manner is a preferred action for the would-be victim. The judicious use of time is the weapon of choice, these days, as information dissemination and proliferation is increasing rapidly. The main reason weapons were invented and developed was to reduce personal injury, inﬂict greater damage and increase distance between attacker and target. The farther away an object is, the longer it takes to reach its destination. The Point of Engagement (PoE) is from the onset until the end; the onset being the moment of initial awareness until the point of interception and beyond.

Individual Attack

Pre-emptive Vs Preventative

Pre-contact cues fall into a broad category referred to as ‘threat indicators’.

Prior to a physical altercation, an attacker gives away telltale signs. These ‘tells’ or pre-contact cues can be in the form of facial expressions, or a change in breathing, stance or demeanour and include ﬁne or gross motor movements, some overt, others covert. Understanding what cues to be aware of will help identify a planned attack. The higher the perception level, consciousness and overall awareness, the greater the ability to avoid or negate an attack. Prior to any violent initiative, potential energy is transformed into kinetic energy where movement has a point of commencement ﬁred-off by the likes of anger, frustration or intent. By way of example, in a one-on-one confrontation model, the attacker launches a persistent assault so as to incapacitate the target as fast as possible. This type of attack cannot suddenly

come into existence, nor will it go unnoticed by the trained eye. If the target is taken by surprise, however, the attack may feel sudden, despite science telling us otherwise. Any attack has to be generated and that which spawns its generation takes time. Time is relative to distance and velocity (Time = Distance divided by Velocity [T=D/V]). The farther away an object is, the more time needed to reach its target and, thereby providing an interval to prepare for counteraction. If events can be reasonably predicted with sufﬁcient time to spare, they can be duly countered. If we can anticipate the aggressive actions of others by utilising accurate information about the precursors to those actions, we can substantially reduce our risk of injury. Studying the precursors relating to the transference of potential energy to kinetic energy and training PCCs is akin to having a slow motion device designed speciﬁcally for combatants.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Military history on a global scale is peppered with examples of pre-emptive strikes and preventative wars. Some claim these are natural human protective mechanisms. The old maxim of all is fair in love and war implies that these can be acceptable behaviour. Who threw the first punch? What politician made an inflammatory comment to a neighbouring country? Which partner filed for divorce first? When affirmative action takes place, these questions are sidelined and focus is directed on who will prevail and prosper and who will face defeat and ruin. Ethically and legally, it may boil down to what is considered a threat. Looking back to the year 1625 and the advent of International

Law, we see the likes of Francisco De Vitoria, Alberico Gentili and Hugo Grotius, who laid down the foundations for International Law based on Iex naturalis and Ius naturale; (Natural Law and Natural Justice). They took a warring example of reinforcing defence by taking the offensive and justifying that position as preventative. We see the same in recent years with the Republic of South Korea, which is currently occupying the disputed islands of Liancourt Rocks located in the Sea of Japan (known in Japanese as ‘Takashima’ and South Korean as ‘Dokto’). This is a pre-emptive move rather than strike by the Republic of South Korea. However, it illustrates the pre-emptive mechanism and the potential for escalation to a preventative or pre-emptive war by the opposing side. Another is the invasion of Iraq in 2003 as a pre-emptive war. The Bush Administration claimed that Iraq was harbouring Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) yet none were found. The intention with a pre-emptive strike is to gain the advantage of initiative and to harm the enemy at a moment of minimal protection; for instance, while vulnerable during transport or mobilisation. However, the concept of pre-emptive war can be used to start a war by claiming that the nation would soon be under attack and, therefore, had to defend itself. The concept is controversial because it can be abused and used as a justification to start a war on questionable grounds. "(A) War against Iraq initiated by the United States cannot be morally justified. The argument that some day in the future Saddam Hussein might pose a threat to us means that any nation, any place in the world, is subject to an American invasion without cause." – Dr Ron Paul, March 2002 A pre-emptive strike is an offensive or invasion prevention technique, used to gain a strategic advantage in an impending (allegedly unavoidable) war before an attack materialises. A pre-emptive strike is launched in anticipation of immediate enemy aggression, the difference is that a preventive war is launched to destroy the potential threat of an enemy, when an attack by that party is not imminent or known to be planned, while politically, the waging of a pre-emptive war has fewer stigmas attached than does the waging of a preventive war. The initiation of armed conflict, that is being the first to ‘break the peace’ when no ‘armed attack’ has yet occurred, is not permitted by the UN Charter unless authorised by the UN Security Council as an enforcement action. Some authors’ view is that, if it is confirmed that an adversary has begun preparations for an attack, an attack has in fact ‘already begun’; the UN does not uphold this point of view. Logically, the pre-contact model flows from precaution to prevention and to pre-emption. To comprehend both ‘preventive’ and ‘pre-emptive’, we first must be able to distinguish a threat from a taunt. Appropriate use of preventive or pre-emptive measures, is reliant upon first correctly assessing whether or not there is a real danger of attack by the enemy. Beyond that, clearly defining threats, vulnerabilities and risks is needed. A threat, is ‘a statement of an intention to inflict pain, injury, damage, or other hostile action on someone in retribution for something done or not done.’ In Law, a threat is defined as ‘a menace of bodily harm, such as may restrain a person’s freedom of action.’ To be considered a threat must be intent. If an attacker holds a knife in an aggressive stance directed at a person, what is the threat? What is the vulnerability? What is the risk? The attacker in this scenario is the threat; the knife is an extension of that threat. The attacker potentially is still dangerous with or without the knife. Vulnerability is to be susceptible to physical or emotional injury. The potential victims vulnerability could be the vital areas that sustain life like the throat for airway and / or oxygen to the brain. The risk is related to consequence and, in this example, the risk would be the possibility of injury, loss of life, or loss of potential to provide for oneself or family. When the vulnerability

is slight and threats are moderate or low, risk can be determined to be low. But what if these indicators are high? In the face of danger, whether it be political, military, corporate or personal, does the existence of a threat warrant offensive behaviour or responses? At what point does the blurred divide between pre-emptive and preventative become clear? To obtain clarity in comprehending defence of threats, we need to understand and train PCCs. “War is nothing but long periods of boredom, punctuated by moments of sheer terror.” – Old war maxim

Corporate Ground Zero

DAMIEN MARTIN

The writer is an IT and Security professional, Counterterrorism and Combatives expert based in Japan for the last 10 years. He specialises in cyber threats, social engineering and corporate security and a regular keynote presenter for ASIS and OSAC. Currently he is the Director for the IACSP Japan and an Associate Professional with the OPSEC Society and a Certiﬁed Master Anti-terrorism Specialist. He is the only PDR (Personal Defence Readiness – Tony Blauer’s SPEAR system) coach in North East Asia.

To ‘be the ﬁrst and to be the best’ is a slogan that resonates throughout the Champ de Allars of marketing. Bringing a product to market before the competition by snaring potential customers’ disposable income and dominating the selling space is the ultimate aim. This is done by not only being creative and innovative but watching the actions and reactions of the market and competitors. The global arena holds countless examples of political and corporate engagements with the use of indicators and cues and what it takes to stay ahead of the curve. Competitive Intelligence and corporate espionage is rife with efforts to be more avant-garde than their closest competitors so as to not only prevail but dominate. A perfect example is the smartphone race between Apple Inc and Samsung Electronics, both of whom are in the hot seat of a personal device war. When Apple announces a product release, Samsung releases a product in direct competition. As this market lures customers in, it also attracts more competitors.

Examples of companies that failed to pick up cues over recent years are Blockbuster video and RIM Technology, the producers of the BlackBerry. A decay of innovation cascades exponentially for those companies failing to pick up the relevant cues. Even within the field of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS), a similar approach of identifying threat indicators is used to reduce injury and consequence. In OHS, Pre-contact control is about reducing risk and accidents, ensuring operators of equipment are well versed in the machinery prior to use. Hazard control via preventative measures addresses issues before an accident or incident occurs. This same mindset is used in personal protection, on the battlefield and throughout many political spheres. Measuring risk and evaluating consequence, is a qualitative and quantitative process that relies on awareness and recognition of indicators. Recognising Pre-contact Cues is undeniably an important aspect of any security strategy. Implementing PCCs is an invaluable tactic to protect oneself, unit or country. On a political scale, pre-emptive strikes are not controversial however, preventive war is. Predicting an outcome, without first cultivating situational and PCC awareness, is largely an exercise in mathematical probability, rather than an informed deduction. Whether it’s the complex terrain of global politics, the battlefield, corporate competitiveness, or on the street, keep your eye on your adversary and stay ahead of the curve.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

PROLIFERATING MALWARE plausible that the next world war could outbreak and end in the theatre of cyberspace without a single gun being ﬁred. As a matter of fact, the cyberspace is gradually evolving as a new domain of hostility and impending annihilation of a victim country and its peoples targeted by the invisible cyber hitting capability of an opponent against public facilities, transport infrastructure, banking networks, industrial operations, power grids, hi-tech defence command and control and even nuclear power generation infrastructures and establishments and so on, thus culminating in the “strategic paralysis” of the whole country in one swift blow.

CYBER ARMIES AND SOCIAL MEDIA

EMERGING THREATS FOR INDIA As cyber communications are in the various stages of dynamic evolution, there seems to be no foolproof firewall to guarantee the safety and security of computer networks from the well-meditated and well-knit designs of cyber attackers. Perhaps the most alarming aspect of the multi-billion dollar venture of cyber offensive is that hackers always manipulate to reach ahead of the security devices engineered to protect the public and private communication and information networks.

yberspace is the new space of human mind, which is being marked by ubiquitous independence of thinking and doing; and is beyond the controlling mechanisms of national sovereignty of any single modern nation state or its peoples, whether strong or weak in terms of power proﬁles. In the present day world, we rely heavily on ever-increasing array of networks to run our national life, plan to and fro trips, power our corporate business and civilian houses, run our economy and facilitate governmental services. National security, defence research and development, banking, ﬁnancial transactions, energy sector, transport and communicability, economic prosperity and so on depend on the reliability and integrity of national communication and information systems and infrastructures. In such circumstances, threats from the hordes of enemy’s cyber armies pose some of the most serious challenges of our times. Cyber security is simultaneously national and international, government and corporate or public and private in character. Critical infrastructures may face growing cyber threats and challenges due to the advancements, availability and sophistication of malicious software tools. Also, the increasing automation of our critical infrastructures provides more cyber access points to our enemies and non-state actors to exploit and attack.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The expanding arena of the communication and information network, which has transformed the world into a “global village” to think globally and act commonly with lot of interdependence for the protection and promotion of personal, professional and national interests without jeopardising those of others, has also exposed all cultures and societies to face all-pervasive and indomitable threats of cyber offensives launched by vested interests and attackers being state or non-state actors. Over the passage of time, the paradigms and pervasiveness of social media have re-deﬁned expanding contours of communication media and social interactions. This article focuses on the broad integrals of cyber security threats and its social media connection as an important aspect of India’s national security, which is very often being threatened by the usability, inter-operability and impact of social media networks.

New Zone Of Hostility

Many sensitive and informed minds have come to realise that the cyberspace could predominantly become another theatre of warfare in the 21st century and could initiate the use of Internet-based invisible force as “an instrument of state policy”, in which the battle fronts could be everywhere due to the use of computers. It is quite

Apparently, invisible cyber warriors have no physical boundaries and frontiers to compromise, while planning, programming and practically launching their offensives. What is more startling, even satellites launched for communications, navigation, earth observation and many other applications could be targeted and made dysfunctional by manipulating their software data, eventually turning outspace platforms as extended targets. Thus, in the years to come, cyber threat could emerge as most potent challenge for India’s traditional and non-traditional security (NTS), especially through the deadly arrays of transnational cyber crime, cyber terrorism and disruption of communication and information security by enemy hackers from China, Pakistan or any other rival / inimical country. Evidently in recent years, the world in general and India in particular, experienced the magnitude and extent of state-sponsored espionage and penetration into the critical infrastructure networks perpetrated by China and its client-state Pakistan-based hackers. More critical yet, cyber threats are also germinating from a number of non-state actors like terrorist outﬁts, organised criminals, anti-globalisation activists and anarchists seeking to inﬂict tremendous harm to the world peace and security in general and for whom India and other democracies are very often the prime targets.

Chinese Intentions

The Chinese indulgence in cyber spying against India has not been a new challenge. Indian defence establishment has been one of the most obvious targets of China-based cyber attackers. In the same vein, computer networks of Indian diplomatic missions around the world, many Indian companies of the corporate sector, think tanks and media groups had fallen prey to the wave of cyber

crimes germinating from Chinese sources. China was found guilty for stealing of information from computer networks from across the world, including India, which came to lime-light with the release of a diligently researched and excellently written report “Shadows in the Cloud”. This report was the conclusive proof of the systematic research by a dedicated team of cyber experts from Information Warfare Monitor and the Shadow-server Foundation.

DR RAJENDRA PRASAD

The writer is Professor, Department of Defence and Strategic Studies and former Dean Faculty of Science, DDU Gorakhpur University, Gorakhpur, UP presently Visiting Researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI), Paris and also at the Foundation Maison des Sciences de L’Hommes (FMSH), Paris, France under India-France Cultural Exchange Programme.

India’s defence institutions targeted by Chinese cyber hackers included National Security Council Secretariat, 21 Mountain Artillery Brigade based in the North-east and Air Force station in New Delhi. In another case, the information networks operated by the Indian military training schools were also intruded by China-based hackers. As ascertained, some of the data stolen by Chinese hackers included the secret assessments of the security scenarios in Assam, Manipur, Nagaland and Tripura as well as the magnitude of Naxalite threats in different Left-Wing Maoism-infested states of India.

Apparently, if such cyber offensives were repeated several times, or launched in conjugation with more cross-border, foreign-aided, Pak-sponsored terrorist attacks designed to kill and maim Indian people along the entire length and width of the country, including the sensitive Jammu and Kashmir, the North-east and almost half a dozen Naxalite affected states, disrupting social fabric and economic institutions and weakening Indian government in power, then the compound impact could be enormously very high.

Global Phenomenon

In what has been underlined as the largest ever spate of cyber offensives discovered, it was found that a group of hackers succeeded in manipulating the computer networks of more than 70 organisations, governments and corporate companies around the world. Such hacking events present a substantial case for large-scale investments in the procurement and use of large-scale emergency equipment, reducing vulnerable network connectivity through updated and coordinated secure access protocols and better monitoring systems that catch such intrusions. Notably, as cyber communications are in the various stages of dynamic evolution, there seems to be no foolproof ﬁrewall to guarantee the safety and security of computer networks from the well-meditated and well-knit designs of cyber attackers. Perhaps the most alarming aspect of the multi-billion dollar venture of cyber offensive is that hackers always manipulate to reach ahead of the security devices engineered to protect the public and private communication and information networks.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

PROLIFERATING MALWARE

Social media can attenuate and undermine the “cause-action-effect” relationship by mobilising the masses for constructive transformation or positive reform, provided that other variables are in positive action mode. Of course, situation can be monitored effectively in varying degrees, but the power of social media communication is strong enough to cross geographical and administrative boundaries of states Even the US cyber defence experts of mighty Pentagon have found it intractable to nullify all cyber offensives. Terrorists, white collar criminals, anti-social elements and business tycoons, you name any entity, all of them have mastered the art and craft of realising their vested interests through cyber hacking.

Unfettered Social Media

In addition to cyber onslaughts against India by China or Pak-based hackers, the threat of cyber security has become compounded especially when the number of Internet users started multiplying all over the world and people of diverse origins and cultures are occupied with online ﬁnancial transactions. Social media have surfaced as part of life for a majority of Internet users. Presumably, almost all Internet users have at least one or more accounts in different social media platforms. Thus the risk factors of social media are multiplying. Firstly, “identity theft” can be the main threat to many social media users, as millions of online users use their personal information in order to getting themselves registered with one or more social media platforms. Such plethora of information with personal data of

so many people is one of the easiest targets for many cyber criminals. Secondly, many Internet-users are also provided with information about their credit or debit cards and use those cards freely to buy different products, items or services through these social media platforms. This is how the cyber criminals, terrorists and anarchists around the world get the opportunity to continuously strive to intrude inside the personal details of many users from those social media platforms. Amazingly predators, hackers, corporate business rivals, foreign state actors and non-state actors intrude into social networking sites in the search of information or people to target for victimisation. Information carved out from social networking sites can be manipulated to design a specific offensive that does not emanate by route of the social networking sites. There are visible pros for social media to substantiate its primacy. One can garner social media to extend one’s domain of public relations and fine-tune communication strategies. Resultantly, social media have carved out its special place to fill up the gap as the other media / newspapers have met with some sort of retardation over the passage of time. Now, due to the rise and continuing evolution of network-centric social media, one can supplement existing partnership capabilities with tools such as Podcasts, Twitter, LinkedIn and Facebook to accelerate the creation, accumulation and dissemination of knowledge power, enlarge the spirit of teamwork and multiply communication between fellow-workers. Social media is here to stay in the foreseeable future and there are potential options to deal with the risks involved. Educational training should be given a priority. The follow-up message is: “Educate

yourself and put the power of social media behind you. Use it to your advantage”.

The Vile And The Sublime

Today, at the domestic root of insecurity and discontent at the national level, exist the rising but frustrated expectations of the people, which no incumbent government in India can solve so easily. The social media has provided people the means to stand up and speak their minds. If some insurgent or terrorist sitting in the far-flung and remote village or jungle of the north-east India can use the mobile phone or uses Internet from a safe hide-out to give timely information to alert his group about the movement and manoeuvrability of security forces, so can social activist Anna Hazare’s followers and sympathisers employ Twitter and Facebook to garner sympathy of the urban Indian people towards the “India against Corruption” campaign. However, from the point of view of National Security, a clear-cut distinction must be made between the intents of insurgent episode and the Anna Hazare’s movement. Certainly, any action in the guise of mass protest, but wrapped with the intents of terrorism, separatism, jihadism or anti-national context which is harmful for India’s National Security, can never be entertained. The inference to be drawn from the social media scenario is that it is a means of communication and can be equally useful as a vehicle of nation-building as well as for socio-political transformation for public well-being or human security, which emphasises the empowerment of the people on one side, while gaining “freedom from fear and want” on the other. This is a phenomenon that could potentially change the nature of human interactions. Across India, corporate houses, small businessmen and farmers are using social media tools like mobile phones, Twitter, Facebook and so on to serve and flourish their business activities and financial transactions. Social media can attenuate and undermine the “cause-action-effect” relationship by mobilising the masses for constructive transformation or positive reform, provided that other variables are in positive action mode. Furthermore recent events, like rape in Delhi, Asaram Bapu episode, Telangana issue, recent Hindu-Muslim riot in some areas of the western Uttar Pradesh and many other developments give credence to the fact that even governments at the centre and various states in India have been worried due to the rapid expansion in the intensive and extensive uses of social media platforms, causing ripple effect. Of course, situation can be monitored effectively in varying degrees, but the power of social media communication is strong enough to cross geographical and administrative boundaries of states.

Using Social Media Intelligence

At this critical stage, it can be suggested that social media intelligence could offer rich dividends for public security and safety. If the successive governments in the centre and the states in India are sensible enough to come closer to social media respectfully and trustfully, they can

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

A combination of suitable cyber laws and technology would offer rich dividends. We need to develop cyber forensics and also to evolve compatible judicial system and common procedural laws in conformity with other countries dealing with cyber crimes, cyber terrorism and cyber threats and challenges germinated from the enemy country or actual rivals use it to reinforce various tenets of traditional as well as non-traditional National Security in the changing national, regional and international scenarios. Despite critics and their vitriolic discourses, it would be in the ﬁtness of things to realise that social media intelligence could become part of national intelligence framework in a democratic country like India. Notably, the Internet-based social media sites represent predominantly prime public spaces and, as a result, social media intelligence could enhance the opportunities to ensure public security and safety, enabling public and private agencies with everything from early warning of impending disorder to a better grasp of the “rising expectations of the people” and guaranteeing human security with its tangible dividends in any situation. However, like any other form of intelligence, basic rules for the intended information accumulation, assessment and use of social media intelligence must rely on the solid foundation and norms of democratic legitimacy, that is to say – a legal framework, a political justiﬁcation, parliamentary authorisation and participation, adequate farsightedness and an informed citizenry.

The Way Ahead

It is high time that cyberspace security should be prioritised in our national security set-up, without losing sight of the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model of cyberspace security through the large-scale adoption and utilisation of scientific and technological ICT potential of India from the point of view of national security management. For our Defence Services and Second Line of Defence, a unified cyber command is irrevocably required. Notably, mere technology is not a solution to the problems of India’s cyberspace security. A combination of suitable cyber laws and technology would offer rich dividends. We need to develop cyber forensics and also to evolve compatible judicial system and common procedural laws in conformity with other countries dealing with cyber crimes, cyber terrorism and cyber threats and challenges germinated from the enemy country or actual rivals. Over and above, we need to develop counter-cyber potential to serve National Security, nation-building and conflict resolution at different levels in the follow-up of democratic norms. It requires undaunted soul-searching, because democratic India is faced with multifarious threats that are categorised as external, internal, internally-added external and externally-added internal threats. In such circumstances, do not let the Internet-centric social media become unwitting source or vehicle of above-marked threats to National Security.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

WINNING EDGE

n the backdrop of uncertain and challenging security environment, the armed forces around the world are steadily going in for innovative technological tools and smart fighting systems designed to enhance the mobility, situational awareness and fighting fitness of the individual soldiers with an eye on staying at the winning edge of the war. The ultimate objective is to radically transform an average, ordinary soldier into agile, more lethal and more responsive warrior with an easy access to the battlefield information on a real time basis and enable him to face the manifold threat with a heightened level of confidence. In short, a smart, well equipped soldier forming part of a military unit should remain a key enabler across the broad range of missions. And in this quest lies the evolution and steady progress of the concept of future soldier programme. But then with budget shortages looming large over the modernisation of defence forces, the thrust is shifting towards “leaner and meaner” armies with technological tools and fighting equipment capable of tackling the multiple threats emanating from a combat zone. The widely discussed

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

future soldier and soldier modernisation programme encompasses all the ingredients essential to enhance the combat capability of the individual soldier while enhancing his overall personal security. There is no denying the fact that a network enabled defence force can signiﬁcantly boost its performance by the seamless sharing of data and voice communications. Situational awareness, real-time tactical information and greater synchronisation of the operational strategies and combat activities hold the key to the improved performance of a modernised soldier.

Greater Man-machine Coupling

Signiﬁcantly, India’s Future Infantry Soldier As a System (F-INSAS), the phase one of which is now on, focuses on a range of devices and systems designed to improve the performance of an individual soldier. As it is, F-INSAS is divided into a number of sub-systems – modern weapons, body armour and individual equipment; weapon sights and hand-held target acquisition device as well as communications equipment to make soldier capable of transmitting and receiving complex voice, data and video

systems. And portable computers in the shape of ‘wrist displays” for soldiers serve as a major force multiplier in so far as turning a soldier into an information savvy warrior is concerned. The F-INSAS programme clearly takes into account the need for a highly motivated and well equipped soldier empowered by a latest state-of-the-art technological tools. The logic is that

a greater man-machine coupling makes for an enhanced level of mobility and a vastly improved striking punch. All said and done, F-INSAS needs to be efficiently tweaked for use by the infantry soldier taking into account the emerging ground realities of the battlefield. For in the futuristic battlefield scenario dominated by short-lived skirmish and incursion, a well equipped infantry soldier has a very vital role to play. Indeed, the future soldier programme should focus on the familiarisation of the operations and management of a decentralised command and control set up. Here the decision-making responsibilities will need to be shouldered by junior level officers. It is not for nothing that the Indian future soldier programme seeks to stress on empowering the individual soldiers with modular command, control, computer, communications and information (C4I) system to facilitate the transmission of real time data, voice and images in a seamless and integrated manner. In the ultimate analysis, F-INSAS

happens to be a programme of the Indian Army to enhance the “lethality, survivability, mobility, sustainability and situational awareness” of the future soldiers. F-INSAS is considered somewhat similar to the American Land Warrior System.

RADHAKRISHNA RAO

The writer specialises in space technology, aeronautics, defence and security issues. He is a Visiting Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation. Before taking to full time writing he was associated with the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) for about two decades.

F-INSAS architecture is conceived with a view to transform an individual soldier in terms of his combat capability while reducing the overall burden thrust on him. F-INSAS has been described as one of the highly ambitious soldier modernisation programmes involving the acquisition of more than 500,000 sets of gadgets and weapons systems to equip the Indian Army’s 465 infantry and paramilitary battalions by 2020. Perhaps India can take a leaf out of the Integrated Advanced Soldier (IAS) programme of Israel which makes for a vastly enhanced level of man machine interface. Under the IAS system an individual soldier will have all the relevant information on his ﬁnger tips with the lightweight, body mounted miniature devices he is equipped with. What’s more, information gathered by individual soldiers could easily be shared on a real time basis for getting a better situational awareness of the battleﬁeld environment.

The F-INSAS programme of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) boasts of features such as lightweight and modular ballistic protection, protective combat clothing with an NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) component, sensor and display integrated ballistic head gear, gun mounted sights comprising TV and laser range ﬁnding system, all of which are linked to relevant information system device. On another front, F-INSAS programme would also focus on the latest health monitoring system and smart shoes in addition to seeking to develop a collimating eyepiece that can ergonomically project the same type of data as two 17 inch LCDs.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

WINNING EDGE

An innovative technology developed by the Madras Institute of Technology (MIT) at Chennai fits well into the concept of modern soldier. This technology is designed to minimise the response time of defence forces by precisely detecting the source location of a random gunshot followed by the deployment of a drone or UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) to the site of action to capture live visuals Indian defence set up should take cognisance of the global trend of infantry battalions being increasingly supported by man portable, anti-tank weapons as well as Man Portable Air Defence Systems (MANPADS). With the focus shifting on short duration localised wars and civil wars, many countries across the world are keen on getting a sharper insight into future operating environment in an era of asymmetric warfare. Interestingly, the efﬁcacy of future soldier has clearly been demonstrated in the battleﬁelds of Iraq and Afghanistan.

MIT Chennai’s Contribution

An innovative technology developed by the Madras Institute of Technology (MIT) at Chennai fits well into the concept of modern soldier. This technology is designed to minimise the response time of defence forces by precisely detecting the source location of a random gunshot followed by the deployment of a drone or UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) to the site of action to capture live visuals. According to Dr Senthil Kumar, Associate Professor of Avionics Division at MIT, this technology is of great help in zeroing on the exact location from where a gunshot is fired. Meanwhile, DRDO has held discussions with Dr Kumar to identify the parameters for the deployment of drones at strategic locations. This technology can ideally be used for counter-terrorism operations of paramilitary and defence forces. The Indian future soldier programme can derive strategic advantages from the ambitious plan for an advanced, indigenous Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV). It is planned to procure around 2,600 of these vehicles over the next two decades. To be developed at a project cost of US$ 10 billion, it would be among most ambitious indigenous defence programmes taken up so far. It is designed to enhance Indian Army’s mobility, fire power and lethality in the years ahead. The power packed FICV would feature the strike power of a 45-ton MBT (Main Battle Tank) equipped as it is with an anti-tank missile system, a rapid fire cannon, a Future Force Warrior

7.62 mm machine gun and a grenade launcher. Indian heavy engineering and defence industries planning to bid for the project are allowed to forge alliances with overseas defence enterprises since the task of developing an engine and power transmission for FICV is beyond the capability of Indian industry at present. Mahindra Land Systems, Larsen and Toubro (L&T) as well as Tata Motors are among the Indian companies that are keen to bid for the project. In the aftermath of the technical and financial evaluation of the bids, two contenders will be invited to develop a prototype of the vehicle each. The winning bidder will meet around two third of Indian Army’s requirements with the runner-up supplying the balance. Incidentally, the Indian defence forces are looking for a compact air transportable, all terrain tracked vehicle manned by a crew of three and capable of transporting seven fully equipped infantry soldiers safely into the war zone without being hit by enemy weapons. The new generation infantry combat vehicles must cater to the full range of NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) warfare and maintain a stock of anti-nuclear radiation medicine as part of its first aid kit. Nano technology in the fibres of the soldiers’ clothing will pave way for the perfect mirroring of the environment. Moreover the clothing will also ensure the safety of future soldiers against chemical and biological weapons. What’s more, the new genre uniform being designed for the future soldier should also be capable of absorbing the shock of a bullet much better than current bulletproof vests. As it is, the shortcoming of a traditional body armour is that it can only absorb a limited range of strikes from enemy weapons. A uniform with nano technology fibres can easily withstand unlimited number of machine gun fires. Another significant development is the insertion of a nano muscle fibre that can actually simulate muscles giving soldiers extraordinary strength. What’s more, the uniform of a future soldier would feature soft woven, ultra strong fabric with capabilities to become rigid when a soldier breaks his legs while at the same time affording him protection against pollution, poisoning and other related hazards. Similarly, the helmet of the future soldier enables him to view the computer generated data on the preparedness of the enemies, location of friend or foe, movement of UAVs and so on with a high degree of clarity on a real-time basis.

The latest genre night vision devices that are highly sensitive to low radiation levels of visible and near IR (infrared) light should empower the future soldier to face multiple challenges in a hassle free manner. Indeed, both night vision and thermal vision have become key ingredients of the vastly enhanced performance of a future soldier. The ceramic-Kevlar body armour and night vision gadgets can transform the future soldier into bullet proof warriors capable of waging a war under the cover of darkness. The thrust of the American future soldier programme is on invisibility and invulnerability.

Robotic Soldiers

The explicit purpose of Future Combat System is to progressively replace the human soldier with an array of automated, autonomous and remote technologies like robot soldiers, drones, long-range and non-line of sight precision guided munitions. US defence establishment believes that by 2020 highly networked robotic soldiers would play a vital role in the battlefield. As a prelude to this, by 2015, one third of all US Army land vehicles will be unmanned with autonomous and remote operational capabilities. In line with the stunning advance in the area of developing weaponised unmanned aerial platforms, there has also been an appreciable progress in the realisation of ground based systems well suited for short lived skirmish, urban warfare, anti-terrorist operations and guerrilla warfare. The rationale that propelled the development of unmanned ground based soldier systems is that in the complex and challenging modern day battlefield environment, soldiers would need all emerging technological innovations on hand to come unscathed from the rigours of dull, dirty and dangerous battlefield environment. Over the past one decade, there have been phenomenal advances in the development of military ground robots equipped to perform many of the roles normally handled by soldiers. Clearly and apparently, the ”robotic soldiers” are fast becoming the preferred choice of military for land combat missions just as drones are the most favoured aerial systems for air reconnaissance and precision strike missions. A Rand Corporation study published in June 2012 says, “The application of robotic systems has a net positive impact on army operations including significant cost savings, effectiveness improvements, manpower reduction and casualty reduction or avoidance.” Rightly, this fact-filled study concludes that the improved ground robots would become vital combat assets in combat logistics patrols, supporting dismounted combat operations and in a wide array of reconnaissance roles. The US Army vision for 2020 projects the future ground robots as “an integrated family of robotic systems that multiplies force effectiveness, improves war fighting capability and assures battlefield dominance”. Of course, the US Army is clear in its perception that the key to the success of the next generation ground robot system lies in “autonomy and intelligence”.

DRDO’s Project

Taking into account the emerging contours of the futuristic battleﬁeld environment, India is now developing a robotic soldier system as part the strategic vision of boosting the unmanned ﬁghting capability, joining select group of countries active in this advanced defence technology area. Under a project conceived and launched by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), a high

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The explicit purpose of Future Combat System is to progressively replace the human soldier with an array of automated, autonomous and remote technologies like robot soldiers, drones, long-range and non-line of sight precision guided munitions. US defence establishment believes that by 2020 highly networked robotic soldiers would play a vital role in the battlefield performance robotic fighting system would be developed with a particular focus on intelligence that eventually leads to differentiation between a foe and a friend. As envisaged now, they would be good enough for deployment in difficult battlefield zones such as Line of Control (LoC) and in fighting insurgent groups. In particular, the stress would be on minimising the loss of human lives. As stated by DRDO chief Avinash Chander “We are going to look for a very high level of intelligence in robotic soldiers. It is a new programme and a number of laboratories are already working on the system in a big way. Giving details, Chander notes that the development of a robotic soldier system is a priority area for DRDO. To begin with, the home-grown robotic soldiers would be assisting the Indian Army in a limited manner and that too under a low key battlefield scenario. In the initial phase, the robotic soldiers would be told by human soldiers to identify the enemy formations. But in due course of time, the robotic soldiers would be at the front end of the war-field and human soldiers would be guiding them. The advantage is that the unmanned fighting systems like robotic soldiers could be seamlessly integrated into the network battlefield architecture to derive maximum advantage in terms of nullifying the “fighting spirit and combat resources” of the enemy formations. Essentially, the programme of future soldiers was conceived and pioneered by US and its allies in late 1990s. The basic concept of future soldier was that by all means the superiority over the enemy ground forces could be achieved by equipping an individual soldier with an integrated set of high technology tools and lightweight fighting equipment in addition to uniforms capable of sensing and providing protection to the soldiers against gun shots and chemical agents. These soldiers will be linked to an array of real time battlefield information resources to establish combat superiority under all phases of a battlefield environment. Significantly, the Future Integrated Soldier Technology project of the United Kingdom aims at boosting infantry’s combat effectiveness to establish battlefield superiority. The goal is to integrate an advanced system of state-of-the-art fighting equipment and weapons with sighting devices and radios that individual soldiers carry in order to increase the overall effectiveness in the battlefield. Thanks to the availability of satellite based navigation capability on a wide enough scale, modern soldiers will not have any problem, coordinating an attack like a swarm of bees or insects. The Land Warrior System put in place by the US defence major General Dynamics is conspicuous for features such as expanded situational awareness, tactical level messaging and integrated lethality.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

ASYMMETRIC ADVANTAGE

Ballistic Missile Defence Shield

BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENCE WILL THE SHIELD GET BETTER?

In the modern era, weapons that offer asymmetric advantage are ballistic missiles. A ballistic missile has certain characteristics that make it hard to intercept. There are three options for intercepting it: Boost phase interception, midcourse interception and intercepting the missile at its terminal stage. At present, terminal BMD systems have attained some level of technological maturity compared to other options. But how reliable is this technology in negating the threat? This is a major question under debate.

symmetry has since time immemorial been a most sought after strategy as it offers a high chance of victory with lesser capability and resources. Several battles in history stand out as examples where lesser capable forces defeated a powerful adversary by employing strategy that were asymmetric in nature. In the modern era, weapons that offer this asymmetric advantage are ballistic missiles, which are famously described as the poor country’s air force. A ballistic missile has certain characteristics that make it hard to intercept. It travels at very high velocity which makes it extremely difﬁcult to intercept with another kinetic weapon. Hence, the best defence against this weapon would be to destroy it on the ground. However, this presents its own set of challenges like the requirement of persistent surveillance capability covering a wide area and the need for a strike platform in the

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

vicinity of the detected target. The complexity involved in this task is highlighted by the low success rate achieved in the operation to hunt Iraqi Scud missiles during the Gulf War (1991). This task of identifying, tracking and targeting gets further complicated due to the advancement made in ballistic missile technology. Most of the ballistic missiles, at present, use solid fuel and are increasingly mobile leaving only a small strike window.

Post-launch Intercept

The other option is to intercept the missile after it is launched. Here, there are three options for intercepting it: Boost phase interception, midcourse interception and intercepting the missile at its terminal stage. At present, terminal BMD systems have attained some level of technological maturity compared to other options. Ballistic missile defence involves complex technology at

every stage from surveillance, detection to interception. For the ﬁnal stage ie interception stage, the preferred method is to achieve hit-to-kill capability which offers better probability of warhead destruction compared to the use of fragmentation warhead detonated through a proximity fuse. This is like hitting a bullet with a bullet for which all the systems in the kill chain have to function effectively as there is no room for error. The proliferation of ballistic missile technology has resulted in many countries acquiring this asymmetric weapon. Even economically and technologically backward country like North Korea has managed to develop long-range ballistic missile capability. These developments have forced some developed and developing countries to invest in ballistic missile defence systems. Countries like United States, Israel, Russia, India and China have active ballistic missile defence programmes as the ballistic missile capability of their adversary presents a major threat. Other countries facing similar threats like Saudi Arabia, Japan and Turkey have acquired BMD systems off the shelf from the US. But how reliable is this technology in negating the threat? This is a major question under debate.

Patriot BMD

The Gulf War of deployment of the it was announced intercepted 80 per

early nineties saw the operational Patriot BMD system. After the war, that the Patriot batteries deployed cent of the Scud missiles launched

against Israel and Saudi Arabia. But later analysis based on the data available on the Patriot’s performance proves it wrong.[1] A group of MIT physicists, led by Professor Theodore A Postol, closely scrutinised the video evidence of Patriot-Scud engagements and found the army’s claims of Patriot accuracy unfounded.[2] One other example would be the ARJUN SUBRAMANIAN P Iron Dome system (technically it The writer is an is built to defend against crude engineering graduate unguided rockets. However, the in Electronics and Communication from basic technology involved is same Anna University, Chennai. as any missile defence system). In He did his masters the operational employment of the course in East Asian system during Operation Pillar of Studies, Dept of East Defence, the system is said to have Asian Studies, University achieved 90 per cent success by of Delhi. Presently he is engaging 479 rockets ﬁred against an Associate Fellow at Israel. Independent analysis done the Centre for Air Power later reveals a different picture. Studies, New Delhi. According to Nathen Farber’s calculations, less than half the incoming rockets reported by the IDF actually reached populated areas. At the same time, he says that the number of incoming rockets that successfully hit was more than double the 58 reported by the IDF. This led Farber to call the IDF’s claim of a 90 per cent successful interception rate “exaggerated,” at best. [3]

Prithvi Air Defence

Apart from the operational deployments, all the BMD tests conducted by the concerned agencies have also come under criticism. The prime criticism being that these tests were highly scripted and stage-managed. Independent analysis done based on the test data proves this argument. One example would be the Indian BMD tests. It was announced by DRDO that out of the eight tests conducted so far seven were successful. Narrowing down to the analysis done on the last test (November 2012) which was declared successful, it is apparent that the system will not be effective if tested under realistic conditions.[4] The target missile’s Prithvi apogee was raised to 110 km to simulate a ballistic missile with a range of 600 km velocity was too low for a missile of that range and it was a unitary warhead (non-separating). [5] Analysis of 2D video does not assuage all doubts on its success. But given that simultaneous intercepts were done for ﬁrst time and work is still in progress, the performance of the system can be expected to keep on improving with time.

Attacker Has Advantage

What has been achieved so far in BMD technology, though enormous, does not meet up to the requirements at present. However, offence and defence is a cat and

1. http://www.thebulletin.org/iron-dome-behind-hoopla-familiar-story-missile-defense-hype 2. Gordon R Mitchell, Placebo Defense: Operation Desert Mirage? The Rhetoric of Patriot Missile Accuracy in the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Quarterly Journal of Speech, Vol 86, No 2, May 2000, pp 122. 3. www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.557145 4. Please refer: Arjun Subramanian P, Indian BMD: Pointers and Future, Issue Brief, Centre For Air Power Studies, 28 December 2012. 5. Ibid

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

ASYMMETRIC ADVANTAGE

The Gulf War saw the operational deployment of the Patriot BMD system. After the war, it was announced that the Patriot batteries deployed intercepted 80 per cent of the Scud missiles launched against Israel and Saudi Arabia. But later analysis based on the data available on the Patriot’s performance proves it wrong. One other example would be Israel’s Iron Dome system. The Israeli Defence Force’s claim of a 90 per cent successful interception rate is “exaggerated,” at best

mouse game and it is no different in this area. Currently, the balance is heavily tilted towards offence as the offender has a variety of options to defeat the BMD system. The attacker could employ simple countermeasures such as deploying decoys (simulation and anti-simulations) by modifying the radar and Infrared signatures, deploy onboard jammers, use MARV, MIRV and could go for salvo launch to saturate the defences. Against this backdrop the question arises again on how feasible is it to intercept a ballistic missile? Is it worth to spend so much money on developing these systems? What if the attacker employs nuclear armed cruise missiles to strike targets? These are valid questions, but the bigger question is, is there any other better option to

deal with the ballistic missile threat? For getting a glimpse of what has so far been achieved in this area it is pertinent to look at the US missile defence systems. Being the country which heavily invests in the missile defence projects, the sophistication it has achieved in this area is far ahead of any other nation. The US missile defence projects can be broadly classiﬁed into two: Strategic Missile defence system (Ground based Midcourse Defence (GMD)) and Theatre defence systems (Patriot, THAAD and Aegis sea-based system). Among these systems, the sea-based Aegis system scores high as far as the tests are concerned. According to the data published by the US Missile Defence Agency (MDA), out of 34 tests conducted so far 28 were successful, Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS)

Prithvi Air Defence (PAD)

What has been achieved so far in BMD technology, though enormous, does not meet up to the requirements at present. However, offence and defence is a cat and mouse game and it is no different in this area. Currently, the balance is heavily tilted towards offence as the offender has a variety of options to defeat the BMD system 1,000 km [7] and the US Sea Based X-band radar can track and discriminate targets the size of a baseball at a distance of 2,500 miles.[8] Improvements are also being done to the interceptors by improving the burn rate performance, manoeuvrability, guidance, improving the terminal homing by using a dual sensor (radar and optical) etc.

New ABM Systems

THAAD system

including intercepts of two targets by two interceptors during a single test. [6] Among the successful ones 11 were mentioned as separating warheads and 12 being unitary. A study on the entire range of issues involved with this points that the system is capable of intercepting, at the least, unitary warhead launched in the minimum energy trajectory without the employment of countermeasures. In the entire kill chain involved in the ballistic missile defence, the United States has to a great level improved the detection, tracking and discrimination (warhead from decoys) of targets with long-range L-band, S-band, X-band radars and Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS). It has been reported that the AN/SPY-1 (s-band) radars have tracked ballistic missiles at ranges in excess of

The bright side for future of ballistic missile defence is that some new technologies like directed energy weapons and magnetic rail guns are under research which appear promising for this application. Directed energy weapons like high intensity laser beams produced by non-chemical methods, High Power Microwaves (HPM) and Charged Particle Beams (CPB) are potent system which offer a lot of advantage over kinetic kill vehicles; there is absolutely no concern on the number of rounds as it is unlimited, no G force involved and hence no issues of manoeuvrability, it could take on multiple warheads in a short time as only the angle of the beam needs to be varied accordingly. In January 2012, the US Navy rolled out the electromagnetic rail gun, which is capable of launching high-speed projectiles at targets out to 100 miles without explosive propellants and can alsobeguidedontargets.[9] TheUSNavyisseriouslyconsidering rail guns for missile defence application to protect its vessels from anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles.[10] Another notable development in this area is the testing of a new HPM weapon (Counter-Electronics High Power Microwave Advanced Missile Project (CHAMP) last October by Boeing.[11] The HPM weapons can be used to disable the adversary’s missile guidance network.[12] These new technologies look promising for future missile defence applications and the only critical issue is sufficient funding for research and development of these systems. Governments should fund research in this field and enter into partnership with friendly governments to pursue R&D to speed up the process, to encourage further innovation and finally to try and tilt the balance of advantage from offence to defence.

6. http://www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/aegis_tests.pdf 7. Edited by Duncan Lennox, Ground Based Mid-course Defence (GMD) segment, Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems, Issue 55, 2011. 8. www.mda.mil/global/documents/pdf/sbx_booklet.pdf 9. Defencetech.org/2013/04/10/railguns-remain-in-navys-future-plans/ , defensetech.org/2013/01/18/navy-railguns-future-is-in-missile-defense/ 10. ibid 11. http://www.businessinsider.com/beoings-counter-electronics-high-power-microwave-advanced-missile-project-2012-10?IR=T 12. Richard Harrison, Directed Energy And The Future Of Missile Defense, Journal of International Security Affairs, 20 August, 2013.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

armaments

INTERVIEW barrel of the gun developed by OFB came off during trials recently further delaying the induction process. What went wrong and when can the country expect to have a world-class artillery field gun? What steps do you propose to take to fast forward the production and induction programmes of many other arms and ammunitions that have long been in the OFB pipeline? Sartaj Singh: 155 mm x 45 Calibre Artillery Gun Project ‘Dhanush’ is progressing as per schedule. This is our first major project to provide user a state-of-the-art weapon comparable to the best of the world. The developmental exercise is going through the required cycle of trial evaluation, analysis and improvement. We are confident to meet the functional and quality requirements of Indian Army. There are many other projects where OFB is working with DRDO and other institutes of excellence for development of new weapon and ammunition systems. In the coming years we will be introducing futuristic weapon systems as per the vision documents of Indian Armed Forces.

ORDNANCE FACTORIES BOARD Indian Ordnance Factories is a giant industrial setup which functions under the Department of Defence Production of the Ministry of Defence. Indian Ordnance Factories is a conglomerate of 41 Factories, 9 Training Institutes, 3 Regional Marketing Centres and 4 Regional Controllers of Safety. OFB is mandated to manufacture world-class products without compromising with the safety aspects of products and processes.

r Sartaj Singh, DGOF and Chairman Ordnance Factories Board is BE, MTech and joined Indian Ordnance Factories Services in 1976. He has a distinguished career graph at OFB working in various departments and capacities. He has undergone prestigious NDC course at National Defence College, New Delhi and has visited many countries viz France, Austria, Switzerland, Russia, Czech Republic, Sri Lanka, UAE and Nigeria etc. Mr Sartaj Singh has received Santu Shahney Memorial Award and Tipu Sultan Prize. In this exclusive interview he shares his views and vision with DSA readers. Defence and Security Alert: Congratulations Sir on taking over as DGOF and Chairman of Ordnance Factories Board. How do you envision OFB playing a stellar and critical role in making India self-sufﬁcient in arms and ammunitions manufactured by our ordnance factories? Sartaj Singh: Ordnance Factory Board is a premier organisation fulﬁlling the need of Indian security forces for Arms, Ammunition and troop comfort items. OFB is now engaged in the production of sophisticated items such as 30 mm multi-barrel anti-aircraft Naval guns, Shoulder Fired Rocket launchers, Mortars, sophisticated Shells with Timer Fuzes and Shells for Tank Ammunition.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

We are continuously upgrading and expanding our capacity in line with the requirement. OFB has taken many initiatives to ensure that indigenous capability and capacity is created in the areas where at present we depend on foreign support. We are also expanding ourselves into new areas so as to become a solution provider to our customers. DSA: OFB is one of the largest arms, ammunition and explosives manufacturing organisations in the world and is reputed to be the “Force Behind the Armed Forces” of India. But we keep reading in the newspapers that Indian armed forces are perennially deﬁcient in arms and ammunitions. Please share with our readers the actual state of affairs as this adversely impacts India’s defence preparedness and security environment. Sartaj Singh: Ordnance Factory Board is continuously increasing supplies to the user through greater interaction with Indian industry and in some areas creating capacity in-house. We are aggressively pursuing the modernisation plan so as to continue meeting customers’ requirement. DSA: India has not developed or acquired 155 mm howitzers since Bofors. The urgency and importance of artillery ﬁeld guns cannot be overemphasised. The

Mr Sartaj Singh, DGOF and Chairman Ordnance Factories Board

DSA: Indian Army has placed a big order on OFB for T-90S tanks to be manufactured under Transfer of Technology from Russia. What other big ticket orders has OFB received from Indian Armed Forces and how healthy is your order book?

Sartaj Singh: OFB is conﬁdent of developing FICV with collaboration from other Government agencies and Indian Private Industry. We are constantly pursuing the project and we are hopeful to provide an effective solution to the Indian Army.

Sartaj Singh: Indian Army has placed long term requirements on us for most of our major products so as to utilise our capacity in full. We are also in process of receiving orders in remaining areas shortly. OFB order book is sufﬁcient for at least next 4-5 years. Moreover, we need to expand so as to meet the projected requirements of our users.

DSA: Many leading Indian business houses have entered the exciting domain of manufacturing defence and security products, some in collaboration with topnotch international companies. Is OFB planning to join hands with private players to strengthen Indian defence and security industry and also quicken the pace of induction of critical products and technologies?

DSA: There is a big and burgeoning export market for arms and ammunitions manufactured by OFB. How do you view the export potential and the role it can play in cementing bilateral relations with friendly countries? Sartaj Singh: Export promotion is key target area for us. We have taken up many projects where exportable arms and ammunitions as per the international standards are produced. We are actively participating in Export promotion to friendly countries. DSA: With the advent of Network Centric Warfare, WMDs and Robotic Soldiers, there is a paradigm shift in the way future wars will be fought. How is OFB planning to meet these emerging challenges? Sartaj Singh: OFB in collaboration with DPSUs and Indian industry is working for development of autonomous weapon systems with capabilities to integrate network centric command and control. DSA: The government of India has decided to carry on with the FICV programme. As it is in “Make India” category, OFB should be a prominent contender. What kind of competition do you foresee and how conﬁdent are you of bagging this prestigious contract?

Sartaj Singh: OFB is doing many projects with Indian industries which are mature and technically competent for defence products. We look forward to greater synergy with Indian industry to make India self-reliant. DSA: OFB signed an MoU with JSC Rosoboronexport and SPLAV SPA of Russia for co-production of SMERCH ammunition. What is the status of this significant joint venture? Sartaj Singh: OFB is pursuing the initiative for development of in-house capacity in manufacture of long distance artillery weapons. We are confident that we may be able to establish this production capacity in near future. DSA: As head of OFB, what ideas and thoughts would you like to share with DSA readers around the world especially on the new direction that OFB may embark upon under your dynamic and able stewardship? Sartaj Singh: I would like to convey to your readers that OFB is changing fast for meeting the aspirations of Indian Security Forces and making India self-reliant in the field of Arms and Ammunitions. We are constantly striving to meet international standards of quality in defence production.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

world affairs

SUSPECT DIPLOMACY It is an international treaty that deﬁnes a framework for diplomatic relations between independent countries. It speciﬁes the privileges of a diplomatic mission that enable diplomats to perform their function without fear of coercion or harassment by the host country. This forms the legal basis for “diplomatic immunity”.”

CECIL VICTOR

Article 29 reads: Diplomatsmust The writer has covered not be liable to any form of arrest all wars with Pakistan as or detention. They are immune War Correspondent and reported from the conﬂict from civil or criminal prosecution, zones in Vietnam, Laos though the sending country and Cambodia in may waive this right under South East Asia as well as Article 32. Under Article 34, they are from Afghanistan. He is exempt from most taxes and under author of India: The Article 36 they are exempt from most Security Dilemma. customs duties. However, there is a proviso in Article 31 that actions not covered by diplomatic immunity include activity outside diplomat’s ofﬁcial functions.

Strange Conspiracy

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

AND THE GAMES AMERICA PLAYS

Machiavellianism is a widely used negative term to characterise unscrupulous politicians of the sort Machiavelli described in The Prince. The book itself gained enormous notoriety and wide readership because the author seemed to be endorsing behaviour often deemed as evil and immoral.– Wikipedia.

t is not for nothing that when perverse diplomacy is set in motion the name of Niccolo Machiavelli pops up. In the case of Devyani Khobragade, the Deputy Consul General for Political, Economic, Commercial and Women’s Affairs, the issue in debate is whether she enjoys diplomatic immunity and was she treated as per the Vienna Conventions. A statement issued by Preetindra Bharara, an American of Indian descent, who is attorney for the Southern District of New York, (Manhattan to be precise) within whose jurisdiction Ms Khobragade and her family reside, has issued a lengthy statement defending his actions and that of the State Department in peering into the oriﬁces of the lady in question. He has tried to make out that all “courtesies” were extended to Ms Khobragade. Were they the diplomatic courtesies enshrined in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations?

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

Disingenious Argument

In his recounting of the arrest of Ms Khobragade and his defence of his treatment of her person Mr Bharara has listed the actions of the US Marshals. A plain reading of his despicable self-defence shows up the fact that a person who is arrested without prior notice (which would have given her time to hide instruments that could help her to break out of jail or commit suicide) was subjected to actions which Bharara admits as being universally applied to “every defendant, rich or poor, American or not, in order to make sure that no prisoner keeps anything on his person that could harm anyone, including himself. This is in the interests of everyone’s safety.” Clearly, by Bharara’s own admission, there were no courtesies as listed under the Vienna Convention extended to her and she was treated like an ordinary prisoner. From Bharara’s statement it is clear that Devyani Khobragade had no time to seek out

Article 29 reads: Diplomats must not be liable to any form of arrest or detention. They are immune from civil or criminal prosecution, though the sending country may waive this right under Article 32. Under Article 34, they are exempt from most taxes and under Article 36 they are exempt from most customs duties and hide within her oriﬁces any instrument of destruction. Here is why: “Ms Khobragade was accorded courtesies well beyond what other defendants, most of whom are American citizens, are accorded. She was not, as has been incorrectly reported, arrested in front of her children. The agents arrested her in the most discreet way possible and unlike most defendants, she was not then handcuffed or restrained. In fact, the arresting ofﬁcers did not even seize her phone as they normally would have. Instead, they offered her the opportunity to make numerous calls to arrange personal matters and contact whomever she needed, including allowing her to arrange for child care. This lasted approximately two hours. Because it was cold outside, the agents let her make those calls from their car and even brought her coffee and offered to get her food.” She was arrested “discreetly” which means that even she did not know that the arrest was imminent. She was kept in the car for two hours, making it impossible to hide anything anywhere. The supposed “courtesies” enumerated above do not constitute the “immunities” enshrined in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961.

Apart from the anger generated by the excreable manner in which the lady was treated within the government of India as well as the rest of the country, there is the haunting spectre of a criminal conspiracy between Attorney “Preet” Bharara and Secretary of State John Kerry to humiliate India. Minister of External Affairs Salman Khurshid was constrained to point to such a conspiracy given that the case had been in the process of judicial review in India for several months and the decision, clearly concocted between Bharara and Secretary of State John Kerry to clandestinely evacuate the husband of the maid employed by the Khobragades and his two children from India. If the Secretary of State of the most powerful democracy in the world could not find time to pick up the phone and ask his counterpart in the most populous democracy in the world about the alleged illegality of Ms Khobragade’s actions it reveals a mindset that is Machiavellian and unnecessarily perverse. If any actions of Indian official were contrary to diplomatic behaviour John Kerry should have raised objections with New Delhi and there are several options that could have been exercised inclusive of declaring her a persona non grata or an “undesireable person” and asking New Delhi to withdraw her from the US. That the US chose to act only on the basis of the complaint filed by a person (the maid) against whom an Indian court had issued warrants for arrest and well after the husband and children had been shifted to the US smacks of malicious premeditation and hence conspiratorial. It militates against the concept of “strategic partnership” of late increasingly applied to the burgeoning Indo-US relations. This is what hurts. There is still time, before things get worse, to pull back from the brink. The US can drop the case against Ms Khobragade and India can recall her home. As for the maid and her family, if America wants migrants of this ilk they are welcome to their shenanigans.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

sea power equations

POST SHOW REPORT a track record of signiﬁcant success in the global market place. As a representative of the UK Ministry of Defence, my role is to ensure that UK Industry understands your needs from a customer perspective and are able to work with you to our mutual beneﬁt. As a customer myself I understand the need for trustworthy and professional suppliers who are able to offer value for money and good customer service.” The mission had three objectives:  To educate UK defence companies about the opportunities of doing business in India.  To provide a cost-effective platform for UK companies to engage with a broad range of Indian companies and customers.  To deepen UK / India maritime links at commercial, military and government levels.

UK DEFENCE MARITIME TRADE MISSION TO INDIA U K Trade and Investments’ Defence and Security Organisation organised a week long UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission To India 2013 from 2nd to 6th December 2013 at Mumbai, Chennai and Goa. The UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission was led by Constructor Rear Admiral Anthony Graham, Director of Ships from the UK MoD’s Defence Equipment and Support organisation. There were representatives from 10 UK companies on the trade mission, which represented a broad spectrum of leading edge above and below water capabilities. The trade mission as a whole was organised by the UK Trade and Investment’s Defence and Security Organisation, a government body charged with helping UK defence and security companies enter, grow and thrive in overseas markets. This was the ﬁrst trade mission organised speciﬁcally to engage with the Indian defence maritime sector. As an introduction and preamble to the Mission, Rear Admiral Tony Graham said, “Both the UK and India have a strong maritime heritage and share a common understanding of the importance of the sea, of the maritime trade conducted upon it and of the need to ensure that access to it for lawful purposes is maintained. We both recognise that this requires a credible and capable maritime force, with a blend of surface and sub-surface vessels capable of conducting a broad range of missions, at extended ranges

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

and often for prolonged periods, independently or as part of coalition operations. Counter-piracy in the Indian Ocean or indeed the challenge to support Disaster Relief Operations such as the ongoing operation in the wake of the typhoon in the Philippines, serve as constant reminders not only of the utility of maritime forces, but of their flexibility to re-role away from their more traditional defence related roles. As maritime nations we share clear interests, with both countries perusing national projects for carrier aviation, the development of future surface combatants and indigenous submarine programmes. The importance of the Indian naval maritime sector is recognised globally by the huge shipbuilding programme for Indian Navy, Coast Guard and replenishment vessels, where most shipyards are at full capacity. With our joint appreciation of the importance of the sea and shared commitment to global maritime security, I have no doubt that there are considerable benefits to be gained from closer cooperation between our two nations across a broad range of collaborative maritime industrial and commercial initiatives. I bring with me representatives of UK Industry, all of whom supply systems for the UK Ministry of Defence with a pedigree of proven warfighting capability with the Royal Navy, a reputation for innovation and leading edge technology and

The mission visited three locations – Mumbai, Chennai and Goa with meetings with major public and private sector shipyards, trade associations and local maritime businesses in each location. In Mumbai, we had a ‘launch’ conference with presentations by Indian businesses and the UK government. This set the wider context of the defence maritime sector in India for the rest of the week’s interactions. The week overall was very successful with engaging Business to Business networking sessions and company brieﬁngs. It enabled UK companies to get a good sense of the opportunities for collaboration and co-development in the Indian market. The missioners had excellent interactions with Mazagon Dock, Goa Shipyard, Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering and Larsen and Toubro shipyards. They also had some insightful meetings with the National Maritime Foundation and the Goa Chambers of Commerce. The presence of the Indian Navy and Coast Guard, ie the ultimate customers, was warmly welcomed. Real business opportunities were discussed and many of the UK companies came away with good commercial leads and connections. Many UK companies also expressed a wish to attend DefExpo and the NAMEXPO in 2015, in order to reinforce the excellent connections established during this trade mission. The UK government and British High Commission in New Delhi look forward to further facilitating a stronger, deeper and wider engagement in the Indian defence maritime sector. Some of the important topics discussed at Mumbai were  The Indian Defence Procurement System  Indian Navy Procurement Plans – [Indian Navy]  Indian Coast Guard Procurement Plans – [Indian Coast Guard]  The Indian Maritime Landscape Cmde Rajan Vir (Retd) President, Indian Maritime Foundation  Technology Transfer, Self-reliance and Indigenisation Col Rajiv Chib, Associate Director, PwC  Partnering with Indian Supply Chain – Opportunities and Challenges Mrs Nafeesa Moloobhoy, Managing Partner, AS Moloobhoy & Sons.

UK Companies Trade Mission

Defence

Maritime

Selex Electronic Systems is an international leader in electronic and information solutions for defence, aerospace, space, security, high-integrity surveillance, network management, information security and mission-essential services. MBDA is a leading global player in its field of Missiles, offering a comprehensive product range incorporating today’s most advanced technologies. TATA Steel is one of the world’s largest steel producers and they supply steel and related services to construction, automotive, packaging, rail, lifting and excavating, energy and power, shipbuilding, aerospace and other demanding markets worldwide. Chess Dynamics is a principal defence and aerospace supplier to UK and overseas customers and offers a range of naval and maritime gun fire control and surveillance systems under the family name of Sea Eagle. In addition they offer a range of electro-optical surveillance systems for applications in border, coastal and infrastructure protection under the family name of Hawkeye. Kelvin Hughes surveillance division is a global radar system solution provider meeting the surveillance, safety and security needs of the world’s navies, coastal and border operators and security patrols. CTruk has rapidly established itself as the market leader for the provision of twin hulled, composite vessels for the offshore wind sector; with its 20T multi-purpose catamaran, CWhisper SWATH and amphibious rescue craft already proven in the harsh environment of the North Sea. BAE Systems is a global defence, aerospace and security company and its wide-ranging products and services cover air, land and naval forces, as well as advanced electronics, security, information technology and support services. Atlas Elektronik is a centre of excellence for maritime and port security offering world leading systems for protection both above and below the water line and the iconic Cerberus system. Thales UK offers unrivalled and proven expertise with tangible benefits for client navies around the world. Strongfield Technologies is a specialist supplier of High-tech components and equipment for Defence and Space applications and provides Engineering, Design and Consultancy support for Defence and Aerospace programmes. Defence and Security Alert (DSA) was the Media Partner for UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission To India and Team DSA had the privilege and honour of interacting with Rear Admiral Tony Graham, delegates and industry representatives from the UK and other participants. Team DSA is happy to report that UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission To India 2013 concluded successfully and Rear Admiral Graham and his delegation went back with happy memories and promises to return soon.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

sea power equations

INTERVIEW

BE SEA MINDED KEY TO SAFEGUARDING INDIA'S INDEPENDENCE

ommodore Rajan Vir (Retd) is the founder-president of the Indian Maritime Foundation (IMF) based at Pune. He is retired from a fruitful and illustrious career in the Indian Navy. Through IMF, he strives diligently to create awareness about the oceans and rekindle maritime consciousness and pride being Indian. He established IMF in December 1993 with the help of colleagues who have served in the Indian Navy and the Indian Merchant Marine. The retired seaman and his team conduct annual coastal cleanup initiatives in different parts of the country and spread awareness on India’s maritime interests – especially in the field of naval and geostrategic affairs, shipping and ports. Researching India’s maritime heritage and publishing their observations in a quarterly journal, SeaGull, which carries national and international articles on the Navy, Merchant Navy, Coast Guard, ports and marine environment, along with reports on current issues of maritime interest, is a significant part if their activities. IMF also organises lectures on naval careers, history and marine environment in schools and colleges to promote maritime consciousness among children and youth. A few years ago, it also set up the Society of Indian Marine Artists (SIMA) to promote marine art. Members of SIMA participate in workshops and field trips near sea and water bodies around Mumbai. After the 26/11 terror attack on Mumbai, Vir has also started conducting lectures and seminars for postgraduate students at the University of Pune on subjects like submarine warfare; underwater technology; search and rescue operations; and terrorism and piracy at sea. Vinita Agrawal in conversation with Commodore Rajan Vir at the UKTI Organised UK Defence Maritime Trade Mission To India held in Mumbai. Commodore Rajan Vir was a keynote speaker at the event and made a point of introspection on how India lost its freedom rather than won its autonomy. The answer, he says, lies in being Sea Minded. The Commodore also shares his memories about the days of partition and of bidding farewell to Lord Mountbatten. Defence and Security Alert: Commodore, you mentioned in your speech that it was imperative for Indians to understand how India lost its freedom, perhaps even more important than studying how it gained independence. Could you explain what you meant by that?

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

neglected then we have to pay a heavy price for it. Even though in times of Shivaji, some awareness of having a strong navy grew and built upon to some extent, it was not enough. You see, it takes a 100 years to build the navy and another 100 years to develop its ﬁghting spirit. So it came with a heavy price of losing out independence. We teach in schools how we won our independence but don’t introspect why India lost its freedom. So why did it happen? We were a nation with 5,000 years of history and these small European nations with population of just a million people had their way with us. Here lies the importance of sea power. Every Indian should think of this and not take it for granted that it happened. There should be a systematic introspection by the youth. People should be sea minded if not sea faring. More people should join the navy. Even if they don’t and may belong to any profession but in their minds they should take pride in the fact that India is a maritime nation with a 7,500 km coastline. They should take pride in the oceans the way they take pride in the Himalayas. DSA: When you express your concerns over the neglect of developing a navy during pre-colonial years you often say that you are ashamed of the Taj Mahal and describe it as an exercise in self-aggrandisement by emperor Shahjahan Why do you say that?

Commodore Rajan Vir (Retd)

Rajan Vir: I was referring to India's maritime past. You see India had a glorious maritime history in 300 BC during the reign of King Ashoka. Even during the Gupta period the golden days continued. But things changed for the worse around 13th century CE. Indians became inward looking, superstitious and ritualistic and took for granted its sea frontiers. Going out to the sea was perceived as a harbinger of bad luck and disease. It was assumed that the sea frontiers would take care of itself. As a result of that, we did not develop our navy. Subsequently, the Mughals invaded our land from Central Asia. They too did not know the importance of sea power. Even though they were trading by boats and facing the dangers of piracy they did not strengthen their sea prowess. Instead, Aurangzeb used to beg for escorts from the East India Company. In return he would give them concessions in trade. This is how it began ... a trading company became a coloniser and it brings out very clearly that if sea power is

Rajan Vir: I am ashamed of Taj Mahal because it was built by Indian workmen whose thumbs or hands were cut off so that another monument couldn’t be built like that. Besides, the architect was Turkish or Iranian. He was not an Indian. It is a false sense of pride that Indians have in building the Taj Mahal. Taj Mahal represents self-aggrandisement and ego and Shahjahan emptied all his coffers with a result that his son Aurangzeb was disgusted with him. Even though we don’t like Aurangzeb and he was not a great king from our point of view because all the conversions took place in his reign, however he was humble enough to state that only Rs Seven should be spent on his own grave. If one goes to see the grave in Khuldabad, it is really a modest and insigniﬁcant grave as compared to the Taj Mahal where so much money was spent. At the same time in another country – Russia, the great czar of Russia was intent on building his navy because he realised that Russia would be nowhere in the leading nations of Europe without developing its sea power. This is what I meant that Shahjahan should have developed India's navy instead of building the Taj Mahal. DSA: It has been sixty seven years since India gained independence. What are your recollections of that turbulent year of 1947? Rajan Vir: Well you see, I am originally from Lahore. My parents came to India during the partition in 1947. We all thought that Lahore was going to come to India. It was generally believed that River Ravi would be the line of demarcation between the two countries. It would act like a natural border. I was attending the government college of Lahore at the time, which was a very prestigious college,

as it is even today. I came to Delhi for summer vacation to my sister’s place in May or June of 1947 and never went back again because the partition happened. It came as a complete shock to us that Lahore was in Pakistan and that we would now have to leave as we were non-Muslims. Punjab and Bengal had been partitioned and Radcliffe who was in charge of the boundaries commission gave Calcutta to India. He was also giving Lahore to India. When Jinnah observed this he declared “I am being given a moth-eaten Pakistan.” Then the British gave him 2-3 days to consider the matter. Partition was in fact going to happen in 1948 but the British hurried the matter and effected it in 1947, as we all know. In the process a line was drawn on the road at Wagah border and Lahore went to Pakistan. Those were momentous years at that time, when independence was being discussed, Pakistan was being discussed and meetings going on to work out pressing issues by the great leaders of our nation like Gandhi and Nehru with Lord Mountbatten. Mountbatten had endeared himself to India. He was the Viceroy and the Governor General of India at that time and our leaders wanted him to continue that way. I think historically there is no other parallel in the world to such a situation – I mean here is a vanquished nation which had been colonised for three hundred years. Finally we were breaking the shackles of slavery and yet asking them to stay back and help us out. Lord Mountbatten did in fact agree to stay on for almost a year. He left India in 1948. DSA: How did your career in the navy begin? Rajan Vir: Like many other youth of my age at the time, I also acutely felt the trauma of partition and of losing everything, the trauma of not knowing what the future held for me because Punjab University went to Pakistan so in India we set up an East Punjab University in Solan. I lost one year – my BSc exams which were supposed to take place in April took place in October. So I was hanging around waiting, doing nothing ... and that’s when I saw the advertisement about the navy. I then appeared for the Federal Service Examination like the UPSC today. I got selected and the whole course of my life changed. During the course of my service, I was a Naval ADC to the president Rajendra Prasad for two years. I served many distinguished leaders and dignitaries and Heads of State, who were coming and staying at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. We had the responsibility of looking after these guests like Chou En Lai, His Holiness the Dalai Lama, Panchen Lama, Indonesian President Sukarno and many others. DSA: Commodore Rajan Vir, you were present among the crowds when India bid farewell to Lord Mountbatten. Please tell us more about your memories of that day. Rajan Vir: Yes. When Lord Mountbatten departed from India in 1948 we as a nation were very sad to see him go. Not a single eye was dry that day as the crowds waved goodbye to him. Lord Mountbatten identiﬁed completely with India. Another thing that comes to my mind is that earlier that year, on 30th January 1948,

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

sea power equations

global armies

INTERVIEW to that country. The same thing applies to the 200 mile territory around the coastline of Lakshadweep and Andaman Islands. Hence our total ocean territory extends to up to 200 million square kilometers, which is two thirds of the entire land mass of India. So it becomes clear how important it is for India to nurture and develop its navy.

Commodore Rajan Vir (Retd) and Vinita Agrawal

Mahatma Gandhi had been assassinated. I recall that almost half a million people had gathered outside Birla House. I too was one of them. The next day, when he was cremated at the spot that is now known as the Raj Ghat, Lord and Lady Mountbatten not only attended the funeral but sat cross legged before his funeral pyre in his full naval uniform. There were full size photographs in the papers of the last Viceroy of India squatting reverently in front of a Hindu funeral pyre. It was a historic picture! DSA: Did you have the opportunity of seeing Lord Mountbatten face to face? Rajan Vir: Oh yes! Later on, in service, when I joined the navy and was on the Mediterranean fleet in Malta, I came face to face with him. You know that Lord Mountbatten went back to serving the navy after he departed from India. I was there when Vikrant was commissioned in 1956 and when it was brought out at Portsmouth. Mountbatten who was then the chief of UK Defence Staff, came on board. I was the officer of guard. The moment was captured on film. In 1971, when my wife and I were invited by the British Maritime Foundation as a guest speaker, I took out this historic photograph and showed it to the guests. I also mentioned the story about how the Mountbattens had endeared themselves to India because the president of the British Maritime Foundation at that time, it so happened, was countess Patricia Mountbatten. She was my opposite member in the British Maritime Foundation and that was rather amazing. I presented that picture of her father presenting the guard of honour where I was the officer of guard. Not only that in that picture you can see the mast of HMS Victory a historic ship. In fact that vessel was one of the ships in the battle of Trafalgar. It is one of the sights to see now. And you can see the mast of HMS Victory in that picture. DSA: Could you explain the EEC – the Exclusive Economic Zone in our ocean frontiers? Rajan Vir: The EEC extends to 200 miles around a country’s coastline. This is the area of exclusive economic zone. For every country, 12 miles into the sea from the coastline is the area of sovereign waters. It is sanctified national territory. And further 200 miles the country has the special economic zone where all living and non-living resources including fisheries, gas, oil etc belong

We have island territory that extends far out into the oceans in the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. We have the Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands which are important strategic locations. These islands give us a frontline position in the oceans. But we have to safeguard these positions and this requires a tremendous amount of hard work.

Commodore Rajan Vir (Retd) with Lord Mountbatten

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

The Chinese forces are everywhere in these oceans and the string of pearls is a popular concept denoting the line of islands in southeast Asia that China has dominated in snaking its way towards the Indian subcontinent via the sea route. They come as close as Sri Lanka in their advancement towards us so it is very important to safeguard these locations from imminent attack. Our strategic islands will serve us well in times of need so we cannot afford to neglect them.

MOUNTAIN STRIKE CORPS

DEFENDING THE HIMALAYAS Team DSA

The major raison d’etre for the raising of the new Mountain Strike Corps is the awareness that it is now no longer possible for India to shift forces from a theatre opposite China to a theatre opposite Pakistan and vice versa without leaving exploitable gaps in our defence on both fronts. More especially since the growth of infrastructure of roads, bridges and forming up places has been lagging behind schedule because of the difficulties in cutting roads in such rugged mountain terrain.

DSA: What is your message to the youth of India who don't really understand why India lost its freedom and how significant it is to be an independent country today? Rajan Vir: Well, the message for the youth of India is simple – Be Sea Minded. This is what we are engaged in passionately. I find very little in our history of that period to be proud in the area of sea prowess. I want our children to cherish the freedom that we have and understand the importance of safeguarding that freedom. For a country of our size, the defence forces – army, navy and air force combined are like an insurance. In times of peace no one really thinks about us but in times of dire need it is we who come to the rescue of our frontiers and citizens. Like I said before, it takes a 100 years to build a navy and another 100 years to put the fighting spirit in it. People ask us these are times of peace so what are you doing these days apart from attending cocktail parties? So we have to tell them that all the time we are preparing for war. That is the message that we need to give to the youth. We have an efficient, vibrant navy now that the youth can be proud of. Many youths do not even realise how big our country is, we are a subcontinental nation. We are many nations rolled into one. We need to be very proud of the country we live in and cherish its freedom. The Indian Ocean is the only ocean in the world that is named after a country – our country. That is because once upon a time in history we were so powerful on the sea route. We must strive once again to revive that glory! Vinita Agrawal is a Gold Medallist in MA, Political Science from the MS University, Baroda. She is a researcher and poet and has worked freelance for over 20 years. She has published papers on Comparative Analysis of Media in India and Pakistan and Cultural connectivity in the SAARC region.

n November the Ministry of Defence issued the ‘formal sanction letter’ for the raising of a Mountain Strike Corps for the defence of the Himalayas from Ladakh in the west to Arunachal Pradesh in the east. Hopefully the last hurdle has been crossed for creating an adequate ﬁghting force to keep the increasingly assertive Chinese at bay along the Line of Actual Control where on several hundred occasions Indian “actual control” was missing because of a paucity of manpower and infrastructure. The Mountain Strike Corps of two independent infantry divisions and two independent armoured brigades – a total of about 80,000 men – has raised questions as wide-ranging as the one by the

Finance Ministry which controversially asked whether the Chinese did pose a threat to Indian security to warrant such a rise; to estimates from retired military personnel that made out a case for as many as three new Mountain Strike Corps to be able to ensure a viable “actual control” all along the 4,056-km traversing the Indian states of Jammu and Kashmir in the west through Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand to Arunachal Pradesh in the east. In recent years the Chinese have increased the frequency and depth of penetration especially in the Daulat Beg Oldi-Depsang Valley area of Jammu and Kashmir and have laid claim to the entire Arunachal Pradesh not just Tawang Valley as they did previously.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

global armies

MOUNTAIN STRIKE CORPS

In recent years the Chinese have increased the frequency and depth of penetration especially in the Daulat Beg Oldi-Depsang Valley area of Jammu and Kashmir and have laid claim to the entire Arunachal Pradesh not just Tawang Valley as they did previously

Bofors 155 mm howitzer

Given that the current infrastructure of roads and bridges do not allow easy passage of heavy guns and artillery to forward positions through heights beyond 15,000 ft an airborne gun could provide concentrated accurate (direct line of sight) gunfire at enemy targets and create a killing zone similar to a ground-based artillery battery of six guns

“Actual Presence” Is The Key

It needs to be underscored that wherever there is an eyeball-to-eyeball deployment of Indian and Chinese troops as in Nathu La in Sikkim after the one bloody encounter that battered the Chinese in 1967 there have been no further attempts to acquire additional territory by frontal attack. The Chinese have been nibbling (‘salami slicing’) at our territory all along the northern sector wherever we have not had enough troops patrolling our claim line as in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir. It needs to be recalled that the Pakistanis too took advantage of the absence of Indian troops who had shifted out for the winter in the Dras-Kargil sector in 1999. Clearly what India needs to demonstrate is ‘actual presence’ in all kinds of terrain and all kinds of weather conditions or both China and Pakistan will take full advantage of the situation. The major raison d’etre for the raising of the new Mountain Strike Corps is the awareness that it is now no longer possible for India to shift forces from a theatre opposite China to a theatre opposite Pakistan and vice versa without leaving exploitable gaps in our defence on both fronts. More especially since the growth of infrastructure of roads, bridges and forming up places has been lagging behind schedule because of the difﬁculties in cutting roads in such rugged mountain terrain.

Chinese Containment Policy

The Chinese had tried to stop any accretion of infrastructure on the Indian side of the LAC so that India remains at a disadvantage through the introduction of the Border Defence Cooperation Agreement (BDCA) which sought to restrict India from creating new infrastructure close to the LAC. By creating a vast infrastructural network in the Tibet Autonomous Region China is able to deploy as many as 30,000 troops within two days whereas it will take India more than four days to be able to deliver a battalion strength of troops at any point along the LAC (as was illustrated during the Depsang crisis not long ago). By restricting India’s ability to deploy more troops at short notice the Chinese are trying to ensure that their attacking force will always have at least a 3:1 advantage over Indian troop deployments all along the Line of Actual Control. India needs to correct this imbalance and swing the ratio around to its advantage by ensuring that even while China is able to deploy three times more troops at any point along the LAC it will not be able to

Pinaka MBRL truck

make a breakthrough of the kind that it did in 1962. For this India will need about one lakh troops facing China in Jammu and Kashmir and a similar number in what is known as the “Sugar Sector” bordering Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. The new Strike Corps of about 80,000 men should help ensure that more than three lakh Chinese troops can be held at bay given the rule of thumb that it is appropriate for an attacking force to deploy three times more personnel against entrenched troops to be able to secure a breakthrough. This is even more appropriate in mountainous terrain given the length and alignment of the Line of Actual Control.

Armour In The Mountains

The new Mountain Strike Corps has two attached independent Armoured Brigades. Armour in the mountains? One could ask. But yes, India deployed tanks in Daulat Beg Oldi against the Chinese in 1962. The terrain is salt ﬂatlands very liberally strewn with huge boulders. Tanks are able to operate there and create an offensive capability against the Chinese within the “Sugar sector”. However, more importantly, tanks can be deployed through the Geygong-Gaygong gap in north Sikkim and open up areas of penetration south of the Brahmaputra on the approaches to the former Tibetan capital of Lhasa. This access through the Geygong-Gaygong gap also makes it possible for India to cut off Chinese troops inside the Chumbi Valley if they attempt to disrupt the very narrow Siliguri corridor between West Bengal connecting India’s north-eastern region to the rest of the country. Hitherto India has been deploying ten Mountain Divisions in the Himalayas to oversee the Line of Actual Control. This has proven to be very inadequate. Hence the addition of a new Strike Corps. Given that there is an ongoing attempt to reduce the tail-to-teeth ratio and make a ﬁghting force “lean and mean” it is to be seen how this concept is applied to formations in mountains where infrastructure is at a minimum. That this is a new formation it could be amenable

to a bit of tweeking of its mix of ﬁghting arms and services. In a region where air maintenance and air bridges sustain Indian troops in the high mountains it may not be possible to make any drastic or even signiﬁcant cuts in the “tail” portion of the deployment.

Ofﬁcer Corps

The other major issue is to find suitable officers to man the new echelons from Captain at the lower rung to Lt General at the very top. India already suffers a shortage of several thousand officers in the army and has had to depend on the experience and close camaraderie between Junior Commissioned Officers who are older in age than the officers but are fighting fit and steeped in the art of both conventional and sub-conventional warfare. They become mentors to young officers who have just come out of training institutions in Dehradun, Khadakwasla, Chennai and Chhattisgarh. Work on the raising of the new Mountain Strike Corps began two years ago with the collection and training of the specialised infantry segment at Misamari and Lekhapani in Assam. However, the new Corps, the 17th Corps as it will be called, will need a gestation period of about six years to acquire the “light” varieties of all types of weapons from assault rifles to 155 mm howitzers of the Bofors kind which demonstrated their capabilities very successfully during the Kargil War in the Jammu and Kashmir Himalayan ranges. India is buying the 155 mm ultralight howitzers through the “military sales” route from the US.

Mountain Warfare Weaponry

Indian troops are at the point of discarding the indigenously designed and developed Indian National Small Arms System (INSAS) genre of handguns and have been buying Israeli small arms which are more adaptable to the unconventional warfare unleashed by terrorists against India. However, the experience of warfare in the mountains is different and it has been found that any weapon with a range less than 1,000 meters could be a disadvantage when troops can be facing

an enemy entrenched on the opposite slope. India has had to buy what is known as “anti-material rifles” that have long barrels and fire a bullet with a calibre of 7.62 mm or more (The INSAS and the Israeli weapons are of 5.56 calibre). These weapons are bunker busters and can destroy softskinned armour, artillery and mortar emplacement at ranges well beyond anything that current small arms issued to Indian troops in the mountains can. Experience of warfare in mountains in Afghanistan has shown that airborne assets like helicopters tend to be vulnerable to infantry weapons like rifles and rocket propelled grenades. This situation could severly affect the ability of the air element to support ground forces in the mountains both in close air support with airborne artillery or provide airbridges for logistics support. Our own experience in Kargil in the use of airpower in support of ground forces resulted in the loss of one helicopter and one aircraft to enemy shoulder-fired missiles.

Firepower Support

Both the Indian Army and the Indian Air Force have belittled the idea of the use of air mobile artillery. Retired army officers have given the specious plea that the recoil of firing a 105 mm gun from an airborne platform could destroy the platform. The IAF has said that it is an outdated concept. Given that the current infrastructure of roads and bridges do not allow easy passage of heavy guns and artillery to forward positions through heights beyond 15,000 ft an airborne gun could provide concentrated accurate (direct line of sight) gunfire at enemy targets and create a killing zone similar to a ground-based artillery battery of six guns. So far as the criticism that the aircraft could explode it needs to be recalled that there has never been even one explosion in an aircraft that has been used as air mobile artillery firing 105 mm guns since the Vietnam War where it was used extensively. To be able to bring downenoughfirepoweronanattackingenemywellbeforehecan engage our troops in their defensive positions the other options are that the Bofors howitzer and the Pinaka multibarrel rocket launchers be dismantled and carried to positions overlooking Chinese lines of ingress The intention of firepower support is to decimate the enemy numbers so that the defenders can stop the attack on the forward edge of battle itself. The last time, in 1962, the Chinese used pincer tactics to avoid a direct contact with Indian troops and to surround them. This tactic happened even as an Indian commander (Brigadier Dalvi) refused to open fire with mortars at the Chinese for fear of sparking a generalised war along the whole of the Himalayas. There is much that can be learned by the new Mountain Strike Corps from the debacle of 1962.

January 2014 DEFENCE AND SECURITY ALERT

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