DSA June 2013 by Defence and Security Alert

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JUNE 2013

VOLUME 4 ISSUE 9

ISSN

0976-206X

9 770976 206003

> VOLUME 4 > ISSUE 9 > JUNE 2013

mission

The power of a King lies in his mighty arms â&#x20AC;Ś

Security of the citizens at peace time is very important because State is the only saviour of the men and women who get affected only because of the negligence of the State.

â&#x20AC;&#x201D; Chanakya

editor-in-chief “T h e c o u n t r y c o m e s f i r s t – a l w a y s a n d e v e r y t i m e ” .

rising power with regional and global ambitions must clearly define the end states it is reaching out for. The current asymmetric, unipolar order with the USA as the sole super power is now fading. What will it give way to? A new bipolar world order with USA and China as the two new super powers? Or will it result in a multipolar global order? The latter would suit India eminently. So how do we make it happen? India needs the support of all-weather friends like Russia, France and Israel who have been reliable weapon suppliers in the past. Aero-space cooperation has been the hallmark of the Indo-French partnership. The French have given the IAF many useful and effective jet fighters like the Ouragan, the Mystere and the Mirage. The Rafale MMRCA is now on the way. Is it time to take this relationship from the tactical and transactional level to the strategic and sustainable? The Arms Trade Treaty has put paid to Indian ambitions to buy its way to super power status. This treaty is designed specifically to hurt India the most (as it is the biggest arms importer). We should have seen it coming and indigenised more effectively, much earlier. We carefully need to scrutinise the voting record of countries on this treaty before we place more orders for weapons. We will be well advised to limit ourselves to tried and tested partners. This is where Russia, France and Israel came in. Will France help us build our own Defence Industrial Complex in the private sector? It is very well placed to do so. There is immense scope for cooperation in the civil and military nuclear field (France is helping Brazil build nuclear submarines). Aerospace cooperation is at its best with the Rafale and French help with the LCA and missiles. French firms are collaborating with Indian companies to build APCs and provide homeland defence technology. The French are helping us build the Scorpène submarine (including AIP submarines). The scope for the collaboration is immense and must be exploited fully by both sides. It would be a pity to lose this momentum.

Premier Li’s visit There was media hype surrounding the fact that Premier Li of China had selected india as his first foreign destination. Forgotten in this peace frenzy was the little detail that he was simply enroute to Pakistan for a right royal reception. The Depsang intrusion almost torpedoed this visit. The Indian Foreign Ministry was so eager for wrapping up a peace deal. They cleverly calculated that China was preoccupied with serious disputes with Japan, Vietnam and Philippines. This preoccupation could be exploited to seek a border settlement. They were in for a rude shock with the 19 km deep intrusion in Ladakh. It was only the Indian media and the public that stiffened the spine of this government and forced it to hold firm and not dissolve in hysterical panic and abject surrender. The problem simply is that since 1988, when Rajiv Gandhi visited Beijing to usher in Peace and Tranquillity, we have adopted a diplomatic style wherein contentious issues are simply swept under the carpet and we focus solely on the trade, commerce and cultural aspects to enhance the feel good factor. This has now gone on for 25 years and it is time to move on to some plain talking sans the rehtoric. The Chinese however are crystal clear on their core interests and Red lines. Tibet is absolutely a no-no. The same is not true of Jammu and Kashmir. Chinese troops have entered Gilgit-Baltistan in strength and their embassy is stapling visas for people from Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal. They have hived off 2,000 km from our land borders. The Chinese are enraged if we get too close to the USA, Japan or Vietnam or join quadrilateral Naval exercises. They want us to profess neutrality by proclaiming Non Alignment 2.0 in writing. In return they give nuclear bomb blueprints and Uranium to Pakistan, test its first bomb, give it M-9 and M-11 missiles and when the US objects put Pakistan in touch with the North Koreans to get Nodang and Taipodang missiles. Over 60-70 per cent of Pakistani tanks, jet fighters and artillery are supplied by China and we cannot even whimper in protest. This crassness and abject failure to assert our national interests is hard to understand. The government is to blame for this sorry pass. It has dismally failed to modernise the armed forces fast enough and now wants to blink at the first sniff of powder. The present Chiefs must tell the government that they can fight quite well with whatever we have. India is now no pushover and the Chinese Army hasn’t fought for the last three decades. A shade less of arrogance would do them a world of good. Can we therefore please show some more spine in our dealings with the Dragon or anyone else for that matter. Ladakh is very much a part of India and we cannot treat its people and territory as dispensable. The calculation that we should exploit China’s troubles with other neighbours to shamelessly pull off our own deal by ditching them is a tad too clever and reeks of cowardice. Such calculations could come back to haunt us a few years down the line.The rest of Asia is looking up to us rather nervously. Can we at least act as honourable men who can stand firm for national sovereignty?

Maj Gen (Dr) GD Bakshi SM, VSM (retd)

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

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Friends indeed !

From tactical and transactional to strategic and sustainable

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Vo l u m e 4 I s s u e 9 J u n e 2 0 1 3 chairman shyam sunder publisher and ceo pawan agrawal founding editor manvendra singh editor-in-chief maj gen (dr) gd bakshi SM, VSM (retd) director shishir bhushan corporate consultant kj singh art consultant divya gupta central saint martins college of art & design, university of arts, london business development shaifali sachdeva pr and communications arpita dutta creative vivek anand pant representative (USA) steve melito representative (J and K) salil sharma correspondent (Europe) dominika cosic administration devendra pillani production dilshad and dabeer webmaster sundar rawat system administrator mehar dogra photographer subhash circulation and distribution anup kumar e-mail: (first name)@dsalert.org info: info@dsalert.org articles: articles@dsalert.org subscription: subscription@dsalert.org online edition: online@dsalert.org advertisement: advt@dsalert.org editorial and corporate office 4/19 asaf ali road new delhi-110002 (India) t: +91-011-23243999, 23287999, 9958382999 e: info@dsalert.org www.dsalert.org

disclaimer all rights reserved. reproduction and translation in any language in whole or in part by any means without permission from Defence and Security Alert is prohibited. opinions expressed are those of the individual writers and do not necessarily reflect those of the publisher and / or editors. all disputes are subject to jurisdiction of delhi courts. defence and security alert is printed, published and owned by pawan agrawal and printed at graphic world, 1686, kucha dakhini rai, darya ganj, new delhi-110002 and published at 4/19 asaf ali road, new delhi (india). editor: maj gen (dr) gd bakshi (retd).

e are today witnessing a geopolitical transformation from a world where one super power dominated the globe after the collapse of the Soviet Union under the rigours of the cold war. Geopolity is shaping up into what many peoples of the world hope will become a multipolar configuration. Given the strength of its youthful population and a vibrant economy India stands centrestage in this evolution. We all see a rapid change in the geopolitics across the globe today and the reasons are quite obvious. Some states are rather aggressive in the projection of their own national interests in the hope of being powerful players within this new emerging entity while there are others who are peace-loving but yet quite alert on matters of security and defence at the same time. India has always been a peace-loving state right from the attainment of independence from Britain, but unfortunately we have some neighbours who have no concern for peace and their attitude toward us has always been aggressive and negative. Thus it is high time for India to review its strategic alliances with like-minded states with whom we have good rapport and from whom we get all support and we are in a position of supporting them. In spite of all odds we are very clear in the intention that we will never attack any other state but at the same time we will take all necessary steps to safeguard our nation and its people from all the aggressive moves of our neighbours. Presently India is having very cordial relations with all the EU states, US, Middle East and South East Asian states and France has proved be one of the strongest strategic partners for India. The recent alliance in the airpower sector with France has given an altogether new dimension to its partnership with France. Our major PSUs and private sector companies have tied-up with the French companies for a better performance in the field of defence and security. Whatever has been done so far with the French government and companies is not enough but I am sure many more alliances will be forged in the months and years to come to prove our strength within the geopolity. That day is not very far when India and France will become an example for the other states to participate more actively as has never happened before. Team DSA is open to provide its platform to all such efforts in the interest of bigger alliances where we can showcase the technology transfer, buy back, mergers and acquisitions in the fields of defence and security, energy and railways which are ultimately going to support both the states and improve their standing within the emerging geopolity. DSA is committed to bring more and more awareness on the policies and decisions in the interest of national security and we invite all French and Indian companies to use this strong platform as their own launchpad for better visibility, branding and outreach to the right quarters.

ndia and France share one of those strange all-weather relationships that rarely gets the credit or status that it deserves. It just exists in the backdrop of enormous global drivers, hardly ever drawing attention toward its dynamics. Even as the atmospherics always seem to be on the wavelength, the relationship doesn't create headlines, let alone breaking news. There is of course the occasional defence announcement that creates ripples, but that is always the way it has been. India and France are sort of taken for granted. Which is sometimes also a good thing, but there is a danger that it remains one of those expected relationships, for which neither side takes that additional step to take it to a higher level.

There are many reasons for taking it to a higher level. France and Britain are two of the Permanent Five widely regarded to be punching above their weights. It is a trait to be applauded in these difficult times globally. While Britain has contributed its mite to US led campaigns in the past, France always seems to tread its own track. At least that is the impression it would like to convey, even if most French nationals believe otherwise. It took a leading role in the air campaign in Libya and is now active on the ground in Mali. The latter is an important contribution to the global campaign against organised terror, even if Mali doesn't show up on the radars of most observers. France took the initiative, got the backing of its western allies and is now on the ground securing the country from millennial jihadis. India has announced a sum of money for rebuilding Mali, a most welcome gesture. And one which suggests a coordination with France that is an important building block for the future.

The Indo-French relationship has always had a significant defence component to it. The traffic of course being one way only. The latest announcement being the short listing of the Rafale as the final choice of the Indian Air Force for its humongous Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft, the mother of all deals globally. The final details are still to be worked out. What India should do is to leverage its French connections and build-up its domestic defence sector. Reliance has tied up with Dassault, the French manufacturer of the Rafale. This may pave the way for joint production in India. But that is not enough, for both. For the relationship to really mean something in the long run, the defence sector must be about joint research and development, the foundation of a strong base. There must be cooperation across the board, since there is much each can bring to the table.

India produces a large technical workforce, something which France aspires to do. France has always been a pioneer in the higher ends of technology, particularly in avionics and engines, the heart and soul of modern aviation. Interests of both countries don't overlap but complement. It is time this complementary nature is extended into the realms of tomorrow. The time to start it is now.

We wish for a strong strategic alliance between India and France in the coming years. Jai Hind!

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

manvendra singh pawan agrawal

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

contents

Indo-French Strategic Partnership: And The Rise 0f A Multipolar World Order

Special Issue June 2013

A R T I C L E S Indo-French Aerospace Relationship Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM, AVSM, VM, VSM (retd)

c o n t e n t s

India-Japan New Frontiers of Strategic and Economic Cooperation Ajit Doval IPS, KC (retd)

10 An ISO 9001:2008 Certified Magazine

Vo l u m e 4 I s s u e 9 J u n e 2 0 1 3

Stop the Blame Game: Now Time for Consensus and Action! 20 Pawan Agrawal The Indo-French Strategic Partnership: A Case for Multipolarity 24 Maj Gen (Dr) GD Bakshi SM, VSM (retd) Indo-French Nuclear Collaboration: Prospects and Challenges Ms (Dr) Manpreet Sethi

An Umbrella of French Connections in the Indian Ocean Region 32 – A Naval Perspective Rear Admiral (Dr) S Kulshrestha (retd) Defence Cooperation Between India and France Maj Gen PK Chakravorty VSM (retd)

The India-Pakistan Nuclear Stand-off Amit Gupta

Battle Space is Cyber Dr Rupali Jeswal and Damien Martin

Indo-French Strategic Partnership: An Extant Review Cdr Sunil Chauhan (retd)

Scorpène Deal: Not Going Anywhere Cecil Victor

India-France Strategic Partnership: The Way Forward Praful S Adagale

French-Indian Alliance Dominika Cosic

Geopolitical Ramifications on the Brahmaputra Front Roomana Hukil

Responding to Provocative Acts of China Col Rajinder Singh (retd)

Al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring: The End of an Era or the Emergence of a New Threat? Ilias Papadopoulos

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Exclusive Interview French Ambassador His Excellency Mr Francois Richier

DSA Report Indian Army Chief's visit to France

New DRDO Chief Dr Avinash Chander

strategic partnership

interview

INTERVIEW WITH HIS EXCELLENCY MR FRANCOIS RICHIER

AMBASSADOR OF FRANCE TO INDIA F

rance has been one of India’s most trusted and reliable arms suppliers since the 1950s. Both nations share the vision of a multipolar world order. In an in-depth and exclusive interview with the DSA, the French Ambassador, His Excellency Francois Richier answered a range of questions on the way ahead in Indo-French relations and how to transform this mutually beneficial relationship now from the tactical and transactional level to one that is more strategic and sustainable.

efence and security Alert: Relations between India and France have traditionally been close and friendly. With the establishment of the strategic partnership in 1998, there has been significant progress in all areas of bilateral cooperation through regular high-level exchanges at the Head of State / Head of Government levels and growing commercial exchanges including in strategic areas such as defence, nuclear energy and space. Both India and France would like to see the emergence of a Multipolar world order where these two nations will play a significant role. What do you see as the next steps to take this partnership to even greater heights? How can we transform this relationship from the tactical and transactional level to one that is more strategic and sustainable? HE The Ambassador: Since 1998, France and India have been building a special, strategic relationship by cooperating on the most sensitive subjects: armament high technology, civilian nuclear energy, space, counter-terrorism and security, including cyber defence since the State visit of President François Hollande in February. This strategic relationship is constantly strengthened, regardless of the developments in the domestic politics of our respective countries. In 1998, France was practically the only country to oppose India’s isolation that numerous countries had considered following India’s nuclear tests. President Hollande chose India for his first bilateral trip to Asia and, on this occasion, the French authorities were most touched by the heartfelt words of the Indian authorities, President Pranab Mukherjee regarding France as “one of India’s oldest, closest and most reliable partners”.

President Hollande chose India for his first bilateral trip to Asia and, on this occasion, the French authorities were most touched by the heartfelt words of the Indian authorities, President Pranab Mukherjee regarding France as “one of India’s oldest, closest and most reliable partners”

This partnership is natural: on both sides, we have a similar vision based on shared values, relating to democracy, rule of law, civil liberties, fundamental freedoms and respect for human rights. We are both attached to our sovereignty and strategic autonomy. Sharing high-end technology is the natural consequence of it. The enhanced industrial and technological partnership that will soon be created following the conclusion of the Rafale contract, the joint development of the SRSAM and the launching of the first Scorpene submarine built in India show that we can go very far together. Of the few States worldwide that possess the real means to ensure their own strategic independence, who else has attained such strong bilateral relations of trust as our two countries? And this, in some cases, since the 1950’s or early 1960’s like in the space area: we are now building joint satellites, launching on Indian launchers. We also share a history and never-waning mutual respect.

This strategic area will therefore be further deepened, as reflected in the new French White Book on Defence and Security, which specifically refers to the close cooperation between India and France. In parallel, French companies are investing massively in India, close to 18 billion USD stock, which is helping forge very strong economic and R&D relations, too. But you’re right – our civil societies need to know each other better. Hence the importance of research and scientific Indo-French exchanges, in connection with economic and education relations, which will be celebrated at the next Technology summit in Delhi (23-24 October). DSA: China’s rise as a great power has major implications for the world in general and India in particular. Will the rise of China continue to occur in a peaceful manner or do you visualise that it could lead to competition and conflict in the Asia-Pacific Region. It has already led to the rebalancing of the US posture and the Pivot to Asia. How do you view these developments and what are your views about the Freedom of Navigation on the high seas and the safety of the Global Commons whether in Outer Space, Cyberspace or the high seas?

force projection and cyber attacks capability. The new Chinese leadership is confronted with complex political choices and the necessity of controlling the demonstration of its power, particularly military power. It must conceive an economic strategy that meets the aspirations of a rapidly expanding middle class and rethink a development model that has been largely based on exports, neglect for environment and the leading role that is played by the major State-owned companies. It must also surmount the accelerated ageing of its population from 2020. We will see how the new Chinese leadership will act in the future. The recent visit of the Chinese Prime Minister to India and of the French President to China has highlighted the importance of dialogue and cooperation. Asia is one of the central subjects of the new French White Paper on National Defence and Security, which has just been approved by the French President. For France, stability of the Asian zone and the freedom of navigation are diplomatic and economic priorities. The new French White Paper underscores that in the event of an overt crisis, France would contribute politically and militarily at the appropriate level, alongside its allies. The rising economic importance of Asia and the growing French communities in the region make its stability and security a key interest for France. With growing power come new responsibilities, in particular the responsibility to contribute to peace and stability. In this respect, to quote President Hollande during his maiden State visit, India is also emerging “as a power of peace”. The “Global Commons” should be at the heart of the responsibilities that the Great Powers have to endorse for the benefit of the entire international community. What is being done to address the maritime piracy problem in the Indian Ocean, where France, India and China, amongst other countries, are cooperating to address this threat, is a good example of what we can do together. DSA: France has historically taken keen interest in the Indian Ocean Region. It has two island bases in the IOR and its navy patrols this ocean on a regular basis. With the recent pivot to Asia, the USA’s primary emphasis is on the Pacific Ocean rather than the IOR. Given the recent geostrategic developments, how can India and France enhance their naval cooperation in the IOR? The Ambassador: The Indian Ocean is an important priority zone for France, which is a neighbouring power with the several overseas territories – islands of Reunion, Mayotte, the Scattered Islands, the French Southern and Antarctic Lands. It is a major commercial and energy route, with terrorist and other threats. Thus, France bears the responsibility of protecting the French population, contributing to the freedom of navigation channels and fighting human trafficking and ensuring that its exclusive economic zones are respected. The fact that, under French leadership, the European Union launched in 2008 the Operation Atlanta against piracy shows the importance that this ocean holds not only for France but all of Europe. The new French White Paper has thus made the Indian Ocean one of the four priority zones for our national defence and security, along with the European periphery, the Mediterranean basin, a part of Africa – from Sahel to equatorial Africa – and the Gulf, where France has reinforced its presence with the establishment of a military base in Abu Dhabi. The security of the Indian Ocean is an aspect of the privileged relation between France and India, who are working jointly to fight piracy and trafficking. Strong ties also emerge from historic contacts between French overseas territories and India. In this context, I’m delighted that a regular air service between La Reunion and Chennai will be launched very soon. DSA: France was the first country with which India entered into an agreement on nuclear energy following the waiver given by International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group enabling India to resume full civil nuclear cooperation with the international community. What further steps do you visualise to strengthen our cooperation in this vital field of Nuclear Energy? Will France help India establish a Uranium Enrichment complex? Will France facilitate India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the MTCR, the Australia group and the Wassenar group?

As of today, the aggregate of French investments in India is moving close to 18 billion USD. French companies based in India employ more than 2,40,000 skilled workers, of whom 1,50,000 work in the services sector. These figures are far beyond what is commonly known

The Ambassador: While developing rapidly, Asia is one of the regions with high risks of tensions and conflicts. As a consequence, defence budgets rise rapidly in numerous countries.

The Ambassador: Nuclear cooperation between France and India is based on the bilateral agreement on the development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy signed on 30 September 2008 which entered into force on 14 January 2010. This agreement aims at expanding our existing cooperation to “full civil nuclear cooperation for the development and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes”.

China is already a major power in the economic, scientific and military fields. It has pursued its defence modernisation programme with an unflagging pace, particularly with regard to the development and modernisation of its nuclear arsenal, its

It includes all aspects of a civilian nuclear programme, including nuclear reactors, nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear fuel and nuclear waste management, as well as scientific cooperation. France is already involved in the expansion of the Indian domestic Nuclear

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

interview

Nuclear cooperation between France and India is based on the bilateral agreement on the development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy signed on 30 September 2008. This agreement aims at expanding our existing cooperation to “full civil nuclear cooperation for the development and use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes”

Energy programme and is currently engaged in discussions with India to actively contribute to its reactor programme. We also develop a fruitful scientific nuclear cooperation. The more India grows, the more it will need the cheap bulk electricity required for a developed country. The French EPR reactors deliver that and are the safest in the world. As for the export control regimes, France heartfully supports India’s membership to all four of them and is currently taking the lead in the NSG to support India. There are some resistances within the NSG which will need to be overcome. DSA: Reportedly, France is helping Brazil in constructing a nuclear submarine. Can India and France cooperate in this field? Could the two countries cooperate in jointly producing air-independent propulsion submarines for the global and Asian market?

The Ambassador: France’s cooperation with Brazil is focused on the conventional parts of the submarines. India and France are already co-operating in the field of conventional submarines with the construction under license at MDL shipyard in Mumbai of 6 Scorpene-type submarines. This co-operation is a first of its kind as all the vessels are built in the customer shipyard from the very first of the type. This project is based on important transfers of technology and know-how. On that basis, MDL now fully masters the construction of pressure hulls and other key equipment. We have not received a request from India regarding co-operation on nuclear submarines, which it is currently developing with Russia. For air-independent propulsion, our naval company DCNS is already working with DRDO to explore possible ways of co-operation. DSA: India is very keen to develop a vibrant defence industrial base in the private sector. How can France assist in this process? What must India do to encourage French FDI in Indian defence industries? It is learnt that Thales Group has tied up with an Indian company to produce APCs in India. Can you tell us more about this and other such deals that may be in the pipeline?

Our two countries share the same vision in the fight against terrorism and counter-terrorism is a pillar of our strategic partnership. We will continue to stand side by side in the fight against terrorism, as illustrated by the strong support provided by India to France during the French counter-terrorism operation in Mali last January

The Ambassador: France has developed a comprehensive and independent defence industrial base, in both public and private sectors. This has been and remains key to our strategic autonomy. Our countries are already sharing a lot in this area and benefit from each other’s experience, bearing in mind that keeping the industrial base at the top is, to say the least, as complex and challenging as developing it. Regarding strengthening links between Indian and French companies, different ways can be explored, such as ad hoc agreement, joint ventures or FDI. As a matter of fact, Thales and other French companies have already established such partnerships with Indian counterparts, both in public and private sectors and more are expected. The Rafale deal, once signed, will result in unprecedented industrial cooperation with extensive transfers of technology and 50 per cent offsets, which will contribute to further strengthening industrial partnerships between Indian and French defence companies.

As far as FDI is concerned, it is for India to decide what level seems appropriate. A dialogue with French companies can contribute to it. DSA: With the rise in the levels and scale of terrorist attacks in India, Homeland security has become a subject of vital importance. French Firms like the Safran and Thales groups are world leaders in biometric technologies and security solutions for urban infrastructure. Do you see scope for major tie-ups and joint ventures in this critical field where French technology can be leveraged with low cost of production labour in India? The Ambassador: Our two countries share the same vision in the fight against terrorism and counter-terrorism is a pillar of our strategic partnership. The joint statement issued during President Hollande’s visit clearly states that no compromise is possible with terrorists and that close consultations and cooperation have been established between our two countries. We will continue to stand side by side in the fight against terrorism, as illustrated by the strong support provided by India to France during the French counterterrorism operation in Mali last January. Our cooperation extends to a very broad range of issues, whether in the public or the private sector. There are many companies in France that possess state-of-the-art technologies, particularly in certain specialised sectors (surveillance equipment, screening etc). Most of these opt for joint ventures or an exclusive Indian distribution agent. Thus, there are prospects for intense cooperation in the private sector. An important Homeland Security Exhibition IFSEC India will be held in December this year and we are expecting the participation of major French equipment manufacturers or solution providers to this event.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

DSA: France is ranked 5th in the list of India’s trading partners among EU countries (after Germany, UK, Belgium and Netherlands). What steps is your government taking to enhance Indo-French bilateral trade ties? The Ambassador: The level of commercial exchanges between France and India remains beyond our mutual expectations. The India-EU trade pact is one of the ways to boost our bilateral trade. Negotiations are being led by the European Commission and France firmly believes it could lead to a win-win situation for both our countries. However, to have a comprehensive approach of Indo-French economic relationships, one should also focus on investments, which create a durable relationship. France is one of the top investors in India in almost all areas. As of today, the aggregate of French investments in India is moving close to 18 billion USD. French companies based in India employ more than 2,40,000 skilled workers, of whom 1,50,000 work in the services sector. These figures are far beyond what is commonly known. These impressive figures came to light after a series of interviews were conducted with the CEOs of most of the major French companies based in India. I have apprised the Indian authorities of these results, which have, in fact, completely changed our perspective. Before, there was a statistical approach to computing investments, based on the geographic location of financial transfers. Mauritius was, thus, considered as the top most investor in India. Now, with this economic approach that takes into account the different forms of investment and different financial schemes, we have discovered that France is, in fact, one of the topmost investors in India. This has equally changed the vision in France, with India being among the top destinations of our investments abroad. It also shows our confidence in the future of India. DSA: France and India view each other as important partners in space technology and applications. Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and French Centre National de Etudes Spatiales (CNES) have a rich legacy of cooperation and collaboration for four decades. What new frontiers can India and France explore together?

The Ambassador: Here too, we are moving forward. Since the early 1960’s, we have traversed a huge road together. Think of the French experts who were contributing to shaping the Sriharikota launchpad, or sharing the Viking engine. At the scientific level, we are now developing joint satellites, such as the Megha-Tropiques and SARAL for climate and ocean observation. At the commercial level, regular satellite launches have been taking place for several years from the Kourou space centre with Arianespace and from Sriharikota with the PSLV. On 14th February 2013, during the State visit of President Hollande to India, the Chairman of the French space agency, CNES (National Centre for Space Studies) and his counterpart, the Chairman of ISRO, reaffirmed their desire to collaborate by signing a statement of intent on long-term space cooperation between the two countries. Emphasis was laid on the expansion of the existing cooperation on the use of data and space applications. Operational oceanography, agriculture, water resource management, biomass, urban zone cartography, tele-epidemiology and atmosphere studies have been identified as possible subjects for sharing data captured by the two countries’ satellites and are likely to lead to the establishment of joint studies and analyses protocols. Space exploration beyond our galaxy would be an ideal theme of future collaborations to be defined in 2014. In early 2013, CNES and ISRO also identified technological areas for enhancingthis cooperation: orbital mechanics, navigation, rover guidance and robotics. These are the fields in which the CNES expertise is unanimously recognised. DSA: Do you think that the United Nations needs in-depth reforms, including of the Security Council to make it more representative and effective for the present state of global affairs. What are your views on India becoming a permanent member of the UNSC and in what time frame do you see this long overdue measure being implemented?

France is, in fact, one of the topmost investors in India. This has equally changed the vision in France, with India being among the top destinations of our investments abroad. It also shows our confidence in the future of India

The Ambassador: France is a strong supporter of an ambitious reform of the Security Council. A reform without India becoming permanent member would make no sense. No reform would jeopardise the capacity of the UNSC to cope with the security challenges of the future. France supports India’s candidacy to become a full-fledged permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. We want India to be in the Security Council to strive for the world’s security. It will also end the injustice of India not being able to join the Council in 1945. France has been supporting this reform for 20 years. It is a priority in our agenda and we try to convince our partners to move this negotiation forward.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

all-weather FRIEND

Indo-French Aerospace Relationship

most interesting and insightful article that posits aerospace cooperation as virtually the bedrock of Indo-French Strategic Partnership. The Air Marshal surveys the growth of Indo-French cooperation in military, civil and space applications. French Ouragan and Mystere aircraft took active part in the 1965 and 1971 wars and the French Mirage 2000 performed brilliantly in the Kargil conflict. France supports India for a permanent seat in Security Council. General Denis Mercier, Chief of Staff of the French Air Force, headed the official French delegation to Aero India 2013 in Bangalore. He held a meeting with his Indian counterpart Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, during which they discussed bilateral cooperation between the two air forces. Last 50 years French have supported Indian companies to autonomously produce helicopters, radars or anti-tank missiles in India through transfer of technologies, transfer of license and transfer of know-how. France is an all-weather friend ready to support India’s desire for self-reliance.

ndo-French relations date back to the 17th century visit of French traveller Francois Bernier who later served as the physician to Emperor Aurangzeb. Eighteenth century saw Anglo-French competition shift to Indian soil when French under General Dupleix took sides to confront British forces under Robert Clive. France later became one of the major European countries to establish colonies in India. Finally they had control over Pondicherry, Karikal, Yanam, Mahe and Chandannagar. After independence all French enclaves were peacefully transferred to India in 1954. In France there are about 55,000 People of Indian Origin (PIOs) holding French passports and about 10,000 Non-Resident Indians (NRIs – Indian passport holders). There are also large communities of PIOs in the Reunion Islands (about 2,30,000), Guadeloupe (about 57,000), Martinique (about 5,000) and St Martin (about 3,600), the overseas territories / departments of France. Thomas Jefferson, the third US president, is supposed to have said that France is every man’s second country. Paris and New Delhi have had warm and business friendly relations from the very beginning. Even during

the cold war, when the Western world would treat India more like a ‘Red’ state, the French helped India in setting up plutonium reprocessing plant. They also supported the space programme well beyond what any state was willing to do. Even during various US arms embargoes, starting 1965 India-Pakistan War, France continued to provide aircraft and other military spares for French equipment. French have always tacitly supported India as a nuclear power. ‘India Year’ was flagged off in France by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1985. Western world’s concerns in last two decades about rising China brought greater interest in building-up India as a counter balance. India and France signed a strategic partnership in January 1998. Of late Indo-French relations have hit a new high. President Sarkozy, was the Chief Guest at India’s Republic Day parade 2008, similarly, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was called as the guest of honour at France’s Bastille Day celebrations 2009, where 400 Indian soldiers paraded on the Champs-Elysées. For the last nearly three centuries, French was the language of the kings and the courts. Paris had become the home to the painters and artists.

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Fine arts flourished. The French gave the world terms liberty, equality and fraternity. Their wines and cuisine were world famous. In 1783 the Montgolfier brothers of France were the first to leave the earth’s surface in a balloon. In 1906 the Brazilian-born, Albert Santo-Dumont achieved a flight covering 722 feet in just over 22 seconds. Aviation had come up in a big way in Europe. The French were somewhat humiliated during the Second World War when the Germans got a near walk through. With the defeat of Germany and massive destruction in Europe, there was a power vacuum and both the British and the French were keen to dominate. General Charles de Gaulle rallied the nation around. The traditional rivalry across the English Channel made them take separate paths. To look after their national interests and not get overly dominated by US-UK combine, the French opted out of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) military structure in 1966. However, they participated in most NATO led activities especially those related to defence against the Communist Soviet Union. Early enough, French understood the future of aerospace and nuclear energy and spent a lot of national effort in this area.

Air Marshal Anil Chopra PVSM, AVSM, VM, VSM (retd)

After the WW II, aviation designer Marcel Dassault re-established the aviation industry. The MD 450 (Marcel Dassault) Ouragan (French: Hurricane) was the first French-designed jet fighter-bomber to enter production. The Ouragan was later operated by France, Israel, India and El Salvador. One real solid pillar in the Indo-French relationship since early fifties has been that of Aerospace.

In 1964, France and India initiated a programme of peaceful scientific space cooperation. India took initial support from France for the sounding rockets. French helped India build the launch complexes at Sriharikota. India’s first experimental communication satellite ‘Apple’ was launched aboard a French Ariane rocket in 1981. Ariane rockets have been used for putting the heavier, three to five ton satellites into geostationary orbit. Nearly 15 such launches have taken place till date. Similarly India launched the French Satellite Spot 6 aboard a PSLV. Our space collaboration has lasted over 50 years

Aviation unfolds Indian Air Force’s (IAF) connection with the French started when in June 1953, India ordered 71 Ouragans. The aircraft was named the Toofani (Hurricane). Deliveries were completed in March 1954. With an additional order for 33 second-hand Ouragans in March 1957 the total became 104. Toofanis faced combat in 1961 Goa operations. They

were also used in ground attack missions against rebels in Assam and Nagaland and in 1962 for reconnaissance missions in the Sino-Indian War. IAF started to replace the Ouragan in frontline service by another Dassault aircraft, the Mystere IVA in 1957. Toofanis were withdrawn from front-line service in 1965, although they continued to be used for some years for training and target towing. India’s first “supersonic-in-a-dive” aircraft joined the IAF in 1957. India procured 104 Mysteres and used them extensively in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1965. On 7 September 1965 an Indian Mystere shot down a Pakistani Lockheed F-104 Starfighter in a raid over Sargodha. The Mystere pilot Devayya was later awarded the Maha Vir Chakra posthumously 23 years after the battle. The phasing out of the fleet started soon after the 1965 Indo-Pakistani War and was completely phased out by 1973. In this period French also sold us the AS-30 Air-to-Surface missiles. Breguet Alize was a French carrier-based anti-submarine warfare aircraft. 12 were acquired by Indian Navy and operated from shore and from aircraft carrier Vikrant. They took part in Goa operations and during Indo-Pakistani War of 1971. The few remaining were employed in the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) operation ‘Pawan’ in Sri Lanka. They were finally phased out in 1991. The Aerospatiale Alouette III was a single-engine, French light utility helicopter later manufactured under license by

The writer is highly decorated and qualified aviator with more than 3400 hrs of flying experience on over 40 types of aircraft, Test Pilot and Qualified instructor and examiner of Indian Air Force. In near 40 years of Operational career in Indian Air Force, held important appointments such as Command of No. 1 Squadron (Mirage 2000), Air Officer Commanding of two major fighter bases. Team leader for an aircraft upgrade project in Russia. Commanded the prestigious Aircraft and System Testing Establishment where 4 proto-types were under testing and development at that time. Served as Assistant Chief of Air Staff (Inspections), directly responsible for Operational, Maintenance and Administrative Quality audit of entire Indian Air Force. In the last two years of service, served as Air Officer in Charge Personnel managing the Human Resources of entire IAF.

Delhi considers France as the most reliable Western ‘friend’. Traditionally India and France have been enjoying an exceptionally warm relationship, which is the fruit of deep affinity and the unwavering trust between the two countries since the independence of India

Western world’s concerns in last two decades about rising China brought greater interest in building-up India as a counterbalance. India and France signed a strategic partnership in January 1998. Of late Indo-French relations have hit a new high

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strategic partnership

all-weather FRIEND

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) as Chetak. Two more versions, lighter Cheetah and re-engined Cheetal were later developed for high altitude operations including in Siachen glacier. These aircraft are still in service in all the armed forces and Indian Coast Guard.

Airbus recently beat Russian competition and became the preferred bidder to supply six A330 aerial refuelling tankers to India, paving the way for exclusive talks between Airbus Military and the Indian government for a deal reportedly valued at around US$ 1.25 billion India’s push into non-alignment and reluctance to join a military pact with USA, forced India to look for cheap yet modern military hardware from Soviet Union in early 60s. Soon the Indian armed forces were to be mostly equipped with Russian weapon systems. The Indo-French aerospace umbilical cord was once again established when IAF purchased the British led, Anglo-French Jaguar Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft (DPSA) in the seventies. IAF went back for a pure French aircraft when they purchased 49 Mirage 2000s in the 1980s. In 2004, purchase of ten more Mirage 2000Hs were cleared. An upgrade was planned with the aim to give the aircraft more capabilities, bringing them to Mirage 2000-5 Mk 2 standards and extending its operational life by another 20–25 years. The US$ 3 billion contract was signed in 2011. Initially Mirage fleet was formed with two squadrons, number 1, the Tigers and 7 the Battle-axes at Gwalior. Later number 9 squadron, the Wolf Packs formed the third squadron. The Mirage 2000 brought in modern technologies and employment concepts. Aircraft had extensive use of carbon-fibre skin with light alloy honeycomb structure. It was the first Fly-By-Wire controlled aircraft of IAF. A refuelling probe gave it enhanced range and armament carrying capability. This 9 g capable aircraft for the first time introduced into IAF advanced hands-on-throttle-and-stick (HOTAS) controls and also weapon integrated multi-mode pulse-Doppler radar,

with look-down / shoot-down capabilities. Modern air-to-air missiles, Super R530F/D and Magic 2 were inducted. IAF got the first comprehensive EW suite on any aircraft with a self-protection jammer, Radar Warning Receiver, Chaff and Flare Dispenser, an escort jammer and an Elint Pod. 6.3 tonnes (14,000 lb) on nine pylons was a significant weapon load. Mirage 2000 performed exceedingly well in the Pak-imposed 1999 Kargil conflict. The battle took place over some of the highest terrain in the world, where both the aircraft and weapons had their own limitations. There were no conventional targets like airfields, command and control centre and convoys. IAF had to attack tents and fortified bunkers. The single biggest structure was a hangar capable of taking a helicopter. Line of Control had been penetrated up to 10 km (at some places) along a length of 200 km. Target heights varied from a low of 2,700 metres at Kargil, to 5,000 metres at Tiger Hill. Area was strewn with man portable SAM’s, such as the Stingers, forcing the IAF to high altitude bombing by fighter aircraft and in particular the Mirage 2000. Laser Guided Bombs were used against reinforced targets. The two Mirage squadrons reportedly flew a total of 515 sorties and in 240 strike missions dropped 55,000 kg (1,20,000 lbs) of ordnance. A very high sortie generation rate made the Mirage 2000 one of the most efficient fighters of the IAF in the conflict. Two old arch rivals – the Indian Mirage 2000H and the Pakistani F-16 A/B were on either side of the border but there were no air-to-air engagements. As per assessments Mirage 2000 is known to be slightly better at interception and attack role, the F-16 is better in Dog Fight. In March 1998 an agreement was concluded between HAL and Dassault Aviation authorising HAL to offer over-hauling facilities for Mirage and global customers. From 1971, till collapse of Soviet Union in 1989, the Soviet Union supplied US$ 33,622 million of armament to India, while France was third with US$ 2,113 million (after the United Kingdom US$ 7,001 million). In 2001, the IAF projected a

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

requirement for about 126 aircraft to replace its depleting numbers. Initially they were looking for a 20-ton class fighter aircraft of Mirage 2000 class. However, later the 20-ton limit requirement was removed. There was also need to replace strike aircraft like the MiG-27 and Jaguar, which were to retire by 2015/2020. A tender for a 24-ton Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) was issued. The Indian government was to buy the first 18 aircraft directly from the manufacturer. The remaining fighters were to be built under licence with a transfer of technology (ToT) by HAL. Dassault Mirage, Rafale, Lockheed Martin (F-16 C/D), Mikoyan (MiG-35), Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet, and Saab (JAS 39 Gripen) were the six contenders. At Rs 82,000 crore (US$ 14.92 billion) it was to be India’s mother of all (single largest) defence deals. The MMRCA was to fill the gap between IAF’s future Light Combat Aircraft and its in-service Sukhoi Su-30MKI air superiority fighter. After an intensive technical evaluation by the IAF, Eurofighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale were short-listed. On 31 January 2012 it was announced that Dassault Rafale (Gust of Wind) won the competition due to its lower life-cycle cost. Contract negotiations are now on. The cost of the deal is likely to be around US$ 20 billion, with options for purchasing more aircraft. This Dassault Aviation, twin-engine delta-wing aircraft is being called an omni-role fighter with semi-stealth capabilities. The Rafale is a very agile, multi-role combat aircraft; capable of simultaneously packaging air superiority, interdiction, reconnaissance and the airborne nuclear deterrent missions. The delta-wing is actively coupled with the canard wing to give high manoeuvrability. The aerodynamically unstable aircraft uses digital fly-by-wire flight controls. The Rafale is designed for a reduced radar cross-section (RCS) and infra-red signature. There is an extensive use of composite materials. The Rafale’s glass cockpit is designed around the principle of data fusion. A central computer prioritises information to display to pilots for simpler command and control.

Rafale also features an advanced avionics suite. The total value of the radar, electronic communications and self-protection equipment is about 30 per cent of the cost of the entire aircraft. The aircraft’s RBE2 AA active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar has been already test flown and is currently under final qualification. The Rafale is being produced for both the French Air Force and for carrier-based operations by the French Navy and it has been used in combat over Afghanistan, Libya and Mali. Indian shortlisting of the aircraft was welcomed in France. Dassault Aviation shares soared more than 21 per cent on the Paris Stock Exchange immediately after the news broke. French Defence Minister, Mr Gérard Longuet mentioned that he was proud of the honour that India has bestowed on our country by choosing Rafale aircraft. This is all the more as the competition was extremely tough: we were facing the American aeronautical industry as also in competition with the Russians, the Swedish and, in the final round, with Eurofighter. Officials are predicting mid 2013 signing of the deal. Pessimists feel that funds required to fund a populist election may slip the contract further. At 50 per cent offsets there is a great opportunity for Indian industry. The Indo-French aviation relationship will once again be sealed for decades to come. Delhi considers France as the most reliable Western ‘friend’. Traditionally India and France have been enjoying an exceptionally warm relationship, which is the fruit of deep affinity and the unwavering trust between the two countries since the independence of India. India and France make it point to send large delegations to the Paris and Bangalore air shows. Indian engineers received six-month training in France with Dassault in 1984 and they became the core group who started the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) in Bangalore. ADA oversees the development of India’s Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programme. Airbus recently beat Russian competition and became the preferred bidder to supply six A330 aerial

refuelling tankers to India, paving the way for exclusive talks between Airbus Military and the Indian government for a deal reportedly valued at around US$ 1.25 billion.

Air exercises As part of the strategic initiative of 1998, regular joint military exercises began between the two countries. The first of the Indo-French joint air-exercises Garuda series was held in February 2003 at Gwalior. This exercise exposed the crew to different approaches to air operations and also to check interoperability. Exposure to air-to-air refuelling and ground procedures was a key result area. Garuda II was at Istre in southern France in June 2005. Garuda III was at Kalaikunda in West Bengal, in February 2007. Singapore Air Force’s F-16s also participated. French had brought the AWACs and Mirage 2000-5s. Next exercise Garuda IV was held again in Istre in June 2010. Special Forces of the two sides participated this time.

Space civil airlines France has been collaborating with India in the field of space since 1960s. In 1964, France and India initiated a programme of peaceful scientific space cooperation. India took initial support from France for the sounding rockets. French helped India build the launch complexes at Sriharikota. India’s first experimental communication satellite ‘Apple’ was launched aboard a French Ariane rocket in 1981. Ariane rockets have been used for putting the heavier, three to five ton satellites into geostationary orbit. Nearly 15 such launches have taken place till date. Similarly India launched the French Satellite Spot 6 aboard a PSLV. Our space collaboration has lasted over 50 years. On October 12, 2011, India’s PSLV-C18 successfully delivered into orbit a 1,000-kilogram Indo-French weather observation satellite called Megha-Tropiques. This satellite is collecting inputs on solar radiation, humidity and temperature profiles, cloud features and precipitation patterns. The Indo-French SARAL (Satellite for Argos-3 and Altika)

satellite launched in February 2013, was part of seven satellites put into Earth orbit aboard a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). The 409 kilogram SARAL is meant to measure ocean currents and sea surface heights. This information is important to predict the weather in the short-term and climate in the long-term. Aerospace is emerging as a flagship for enhancing Indo-French relations. Today a significant part of India’s civil airline fleet is composed of Airbus series of aircraft. 7,200 Airbus aircraft variants are flying around the world today. The Airbus engineering centre in Bangalore is their flagship site in India. They have a total of 1,800 employees in India. Airbus R&D focus in India is on high-end engineering and design activities that include flight physics, structures, systems and testing. Dassault is also market leader for large-cabin business jets in India with 20 currently operating in India. Falcons are with many private jet operators. Airbus, the European aircraft maker, is planning to invest US$ 1 billion in India over the next decade to meet vigorous demand in the fastest-growing air travel market in the world. Ambitious projects are being driven in military cooperation. Military to military contacts are increasing through exercises. Both are in space cooperation for use of outer space for peaceful purposes. France supports India for a permanent seat in Security Council. General Denis Mercier, Chief of Staff of the French Air Force, headed the official French delegation to Aero India 2013 in Bangalore. He held a meeting with his Indian counterpart Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, during which they discussed bilateral cooperation between the two air forces. He also made a call on Dr V Saraswat, Director of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Scientific Advisor to Raksha Mantri. Last 50 years French have supported Indian companies to autonomously produce helicopters, radars or anti-tank missiles in India through transfer of technologies, transfer of licence and transfer of know-how. France is an all-weather friend ready to support India’s desire for self-reliance.

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strategic partnership

COMMON STAKES

Ajit Doval IPS, KC (retd)

hough the US decline is very gradual and may be reversed, the world is definitely transiting to a multipolar world order. In the face of a rising and increasingly assertive China, the India-Japan strategic partnership would be a defining partnership of this era. India and Japan must step up military to military engagements for safeguarding common security interests in the region. The participation of the Japanese Navy in the five nation Malabar 2007 Naval Exercise was the first step in this direction. Both navies can support the US Navy in joint-patrolling of the Indo-Pacific. The littoral countries can join a coalition of like-minded countries in East Asia and increase coordination between the navies, coast guard and marine police forces to meet challenges such as piracy, smuggling, illegal trade in narcotics, gun-running and keeping the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) open. In the event of a conflict, the navies could augment each other’s efforts to circumvent the Anti-access and Area Denial strategy of the Chinese Navy. Presently 223 Japanese companies have their operations in India. 27 per cent of the FDI into India from these companies come from the automobile sector followed by services (14 per cent), electrical equipment (11 per cent), industrial machinery (7 per cent) and trading (7 per cent). In 2012, Japan signed a deal to import 4,100 tonnes of rare-earth metals from India. There is significant scope for cooperation in the civil nuclear field as also the cyber domain. A very thought-provoking article by a former Director of India’s Intelligence Bureau.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

The writer is Director of Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), New Delhi and former Director, Intelligence Bureau, government of India.

he 21st century has been termed as the “Asian Century”, with different stakeholders interpreting it differently. Two variables are however accepted by all – firstly, economics will be the primordial driver of geopolitics and secondly, the centre of gravity will shift to Asia. The economic decline of the West and erosion in its strategic reach and stand-alone capabilities have catalysed the process where in the changing landscape, China and India, being new entrants have attracted greater attention. The fact that Japan was the first economic marvel of Asia and will continue to remain a major player is often lost sight of. In the post-war world Japan has continued its lead role in economic development as also emerged as a major technological power.

The two countries are Asia’s largest and richest democracies and are essentially status quoist powers that are skeptical of power assertion or projections to further geopolitical interests India’s civilisational linkages with Japan date back to the 6th century BC when Buddhism took roots in that country. Though geographically distant, the two countries for centuries have shared a conflict free relationship and common ‘oriental’ values and nurtured mutual respect for each other. Last year, Japan and India completed 60 years of established diplomatic relations. Except for a brief period after India conducted its nuclear tests in 1998, when Japan imposed economic sanctions on India, their relations have remained amicable. The two countries are Asia’s largest and richest democracies and are essentially status quoist powers that are skeptical of power assertion or projections to further geopolitical interests. The relationship gained momentum following Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit to India in the year 2000 when the “Japan-India Global Partnership in the 21st century” was signed. In the year 2006, the global partnership agreement was expanded to a strategic and global partnership, which, in effect means that neither country’s stance towards each other will change, irrespective of change of leader in respective countries. And in 2008, the two sides re-affirmed their commitment by advocating a “New Stage of Japan-India Strategic and Global Partnership”. This partnership can be taken to greater heights by accelerating cooperation in areas other than economic cooperation including addressing security threats and concerns.

India and Japan rightfully aspire for membership of the UN Security Council and push for broader reforms of the global body. Both countries need to make concerted efforts to press their demands for a permanent seat where China is playing an obstructionist role and wants to remain the unchallenged Asian power in the apex body. On 28 December 2011, the Prime Ministers of India and Japan issued a joint statement recognising that the main objective of the reform of the Security Council is for both Japan and India to obtain permanent council seats and expressed their resolve to “redouble their efforts” by “participating actively in the intergovernmental negotiations”. India and Japan should also cooperate in putting greater pressure on the issue of China’s nuclear proliferation to North Korea and Pakistan at the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG). Although India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Japan can play an influential role in the field of nuclear nonproliferation. Both countries should also start playing a major role in regional bodies such as the ASEAN Regional Forum, the East Asia Summit and the Regional Cooperation Agreement on combating piracy. A growing concern in the region is China’s increasing assertiveness in its maritime disputes with Japan and other littoral countries. These disputes are also linked to the economic well-being of these countries as the islands and shoals contain a rich reservoir of natural gas, fishery and other minerals which could fuel modern day world economies. The trend of nationalist protests in China over the Senkaku issue points towards its economic importance. To deter China from taking unprecedented military action in the South and East China Seas, the littoral countries are rallying closer to the United States for protection. At the same time, however, it is the joint responsibility of Japan, India and China to preserve the peace in these parts of the Pacific.

China’s ambitious maritime programme is seen with concern by most of its maritime neighbours and its naval build-up is seen as disproportionate to its security needs. Any rally around the flag effect jointly by Japan and India in cooperation with littoral countries may be misconstrued by China as fronting against it. As such both Japan and India must utilise the framework of the East Asia Summit to jointly address regional and global issues like counterterrorism, non-proliferation, peacekeeping, peace-building, maritime security, disaster management and the environment. They can jointly involve China, too, to cooperate on these issues for mutual prosperity and security. Due to economic inter-linkages, deep structural transformations are taking place in the Asia Pacific Region. The regional dynamics in this region broadly operate under four main sub-systems namely, the Traditional East Asia sub-system, the ASEAN-plus sub-system, the South Asian sub-system and encompassing all three the larger Asia-Pacific sub-system. Due to greater maritime trade, the oceanic region from the East China Sea to the Arabian Sea is broadly being called the “Indo-Pacific” region where both India and Japan are important stakeholders. China is a major player in this oceanic stretch and is rapidly modernising its navy to play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific. It already conducts anti-piracy operations in the western Indian Ocean. The security of its sea lines of communication is one of its core vulnerabilities as a majority of its trade and energy supplies transit through the Strait of Malacca which is a major chokepoint in the Eastern Indian Ocean. To counter this vulnerability, China aims to establish a string of ports and berthing facilities stretching from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean Region. To counter China’s activities, the East Asian littorals, many of which have long-standing offshore disputes with China are adopting a

Japan can take advantage of India’s demographic dividend for providing a larger labour force as compared to Japan where the population is ageing. Its industries could therefore set up joint-manufacturing units in India as it is fast becoming a major exporter of manufactured goods. India could benefit from Japan’s high-end technology and production of industrial goods

India is a major IT power with expertise in software manufacturing while Japan excels in the manufacture of semiconductor chips, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence. Both these advantages should be combined to harden cyberspace defence in India and Japan and build a robust communication network

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strategic partnership

COMMON STAKES

Rimland security concept by forming multilateral regional alliances. The US-Japan-Australia-India quadrilateral is the most prominent of the informal or loose alliances that are taking shape in the region. India and Japan are major powers located on both ends of the Indo-Pacific and have a greater role to play in any such grouping. Though any Chinese hostility in the South and East China Seas may not directly impact India, it may lead to temporary disruptions in maritime trade. India and Japan have a common stake in the region to safeguard their right to free navigation of seas, protect its supply routes, maintain access to resources and markets and carry out explorations for minerals to power their burgeoning economies. All these activities are mandated by the UNCLOS or the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas and both countries have every right to take steps to avoid interference by other countries in these activities.

In the next 15 years China, Japan and India will be three of the world’s largest economies. Despite the global economic meltdown, the Indian and Japanese economies should remain strong The United States like China is a major player in the Western Pacific. The US has recently announced its pivot to the Pacific and it is but natural to expect smaller countries in this region to align with it for support and as a hedge against the Chinese. India and Japan have good relations with the US and cannot avoid its larger role in the region where it has maintained bases for several decades. But both countries can play independent roles in providing maritime assistance to the smaller littoral countries for mutual economic and security benefits and allay China’s fears of growing American presence in the region. India and Japan must step up military to military engagements for safeguarding common security interests in the region. The participation of the Japanese Navy in the five-nation Malabar 2007 Naval Exercise was the first step in this direction. Both navies can support the US Navy in joint-patrolling of the Indo-Pacific. The littoral countries can join a coalition of like-minded countries in East Asia and increase

coordination between the navies, coast guard and marine police forces to meet challenges such as piracy, smuggling, illegal trade in narcotics, gun-running and keeping the Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) open. In the event of a conflict, the navies could augment each other’s efforts to circumvent the Anti-access and Area Denial strategy of the Chinese Navy. All countries except Pakistan and North Korea would not be averse to joining such a coalition. Indian and Japanese Navies should increase port of call visits to build greater rapport and interoperability to ensure the free right to navigation, combat piracy and security of the SLOCs. They could use each other’s ports for berthing facilities while patrolling the Indo-Pacific. For all this to happen, the Japanese government will have to amend its constitution to transform the Japanese Self Defence Forces (SDF) into a normal military force and play a larger role in ensuring world peace. Currently debates are ongoing in Japan over expanding the role and mandate of the SDF. The Indian and Chinese Armies have conducted joint counterterrorism drills in recent years. The scope of military to military engagements between India and Japan can also be expanded to the domain of counterterrorism as both countries face the common threat of sea-borne terrorism. The threat posed by small boats as was witnessed in the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai is a live threat facing both India and Japan due to their long coastlines. The Indian Navy also has tremendous geographical advantage in maintaining dominance over the Strait of Malacca which is a major Chinese vulnerability. They are perennially dependent on that route to ensure their energy security. In the next 15 years China, Japan and India will be three of the world’s largest economies. Despite the global economic meltdown, the Indian and Japanese economies should remain strong. Asia accounts for nearly 50 per cent of the world’s population. More than a quarter of the world’s GDP and 30 per cent of exports transits through Asia. In terms of size China is the second largest economy in the world followed by Japan which is the third largest. India currently is the tenth largest economy in the world. Both India and Japan have a

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

voracious appetite for consumer goods and imports. Yet for both countries China is the larger trade partner and India-Japan trade constitutes only 4 per cent of the total FDI flows into India. India-Japan economic cooperation is covered by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) of 2011 which governs 90 per cent of trade aspects between the two countries. Several complementarities exist in both countries which could further bolster their economic cooperation and trade. Japan can take advantage of India’s demographic dividend for providing a larger labour force as compared to Japan where the population is ageing. Its industries could therefore set up joint-manufacturing units in India as it is fast becoming a major exporter of manufactured goods. India could benefit from Japan’s high-end technology and production of industrial goods. Presently 223 Japanese companies have their operations in India. 27 per cent of the FDI into India from these companies come from the automobile sector followed by services (14 per cent), electrical equipment (11 per cent), industrial machinery (7 per cent) and trading (7 per cent). In 2012, Japan signed a deal to import 4,100 tonnes of rare-earth metals from India. This could be seen as a hedging strategy against China. India has also involved Japanese companies in critical infrastructural development projects like the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor. The Japanese maritime sector is virtually absent in India despite tremendous scope for cooperation. For this India will have to strengthen the handling capacities of its ports. Japanese maritime companies can also contribute in augmenting India’s port and berthing facilities for commerce. India is the largest arms importer in the world and is likely to spend US$ 100 billion in the next five to seven years on defence acquisitions. The India-Japan trade could therefore be expanded to the field of defence and strategic sector. Japanese defence, aerospace and security-related companies could enter into defence trade and production of dual-use technology items in India. Import of technology for defence manufacturing will enable the Indian industry in moving towards indigenous production. This would also aid in

employment generation in India where the size of the labour market is expected to grow substantially in the coming years. The three principles on arms exports and the security trade control system in Japan imposes restrictions on the sale of equipment for military purposes to another country. Japan is considering the sale of its US-2 amphibian aircraft to India which falls outside the ambit of military sales. But given the growing scope of Indo-Japanese relations an exception can be made for India for sale of military equipment. Japan has made similar exceptions for the US in the past. In India, poor infrastructure, red-tapism, large delays in customs clearances etc are seen as impediments for setting up businesses by foreign industrial houses for which administrative reforms are required. The Civilian Nuclear Energy sector also provides ample scope for expanding India-Japan cooperation. The Japanese technology in nuclear use for civilian purposes is considered extremely superior and India needs nuclear power to fuel its growing energy demands. Though it is not a signatory to the NTP or CTBT, India is a member of the NSG and is recognised by the world as a responsible nuclear power. In any case, it will have to enter into a civilian nuclear agreement with Japan to be able to import nuclear technology and material from US and France both of which depend on Japanese technology for their civilian nuclear programme. The negotiations over the civilian nuclear deal between India and Japan have been stalled due to frequent change of governments in Japan and debates over nuclear safety following the Fukushima disaster. Both countries are aware that as India seeks to expand nuclear power and development, they have expectations in Japan’s outstanding technology. As a means of dealing with climate change, Japan’s cooperation for peaceful use of nuclear power will further strengthen their strategic partnership. At the same time, as the cooperation proceeds, both countries will have to pay attention to nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. India, too, has to be mindful that Japan, being the only country subjected to nuclear devastation attaches great importance to international nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation centering on the NPT. Prime Minister

Manmohan Singh has spoken of a moratorium on nuclear tests and Japan would be closely watching India’s future actions in this regard, before extending meaningful and substantial peaceful nuclear technology support. Cyberspace is now considered the “fifth” battleground after land, air, sea and outer space. Cyber warfare provides tremendous advantages and deniability to the enemy as it is very difficult to trace the actual source of such attacks. Cyber warfare poses a potent threat to both India and Japan which have faced numerous cyber attacks in recent times. It is widely believed that Chinese hackers have targeted government and military installations in Japan and India exposing their vulnerabilities. In futuristic warfare, cyber attacks would aim to degrade military communication networks to cause psychological imbalance among decision-makers. India is a major IT power with expertise in software manufacturing while Japan excels in the manufacture of semiconductor chips, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence. Both these advantages should be combined to harden cyberspace defence in India and Japan and build a robust communication network. The Japanese SDF are greatly handicapped in cyber warfare as it is not specifically designated as part of its mission. For that to happen, a legal amendment is required to transfer SDF operations from the positive to the negative list of activities akin to normal military forces. Global Warming and Environmental Challenges are other areas where India and Japan could augment their cooperation and find common solutions to challenges of Carbon emissions, maritime pollution and dumping of waste materials into the sea and responding to natural disasters. In addition, both India and Japan are signatories to the Container Security Initiative (CSI) for preventing hazardous and radioactive substances from reaching the shores. Though there were differences in opinion between India and Japan over carbon emissions at the Climate Change Summit they can no longer afford to ignore environmental issues which can have devastating effects in both

countries. Japan is already severely prone to earthquakes and tsunamis and India has a burgeoning population where any natural disaster could cause large scale devastation. Finally, though there are several positives to the India-Japan relationship, a more robust engagement is limited due to certain constraints on both sides. Despite its global aspirations, India is still seen by many as a third-world power which is reluctant to assume a leadership role in the world. Japan is also wary of India showing its hand openly for the US against China. Even Japan plays a limited role in world affairs due to self-imposed constitutional restrictions and excessive pacifism in the post war era. Constant instability in Japan’s political system furthers the sense of unease in its relations with other countries and leads to uncertainties and delays in signing of agreements. Nevertheless, India and Japan share universal values like freedom, democracy, rule of law and respect for human rights. They have a common stake in economy and regional security. Both countries will have to play a more proactive and dominant role in Asia to safeguard their economic prosperity and national security interests. The combined strength of India and Japan will check China’s efforts from dominating the complete Asian continental space. The North Korean sabre-rattling can heighten India’s importance to Japan in defusing the crisis in North East Asia. India and North Korea have embassies in each other’s country. Japan can look forward to India’s cooperation in preventing a negative spiral. India and Japan have completed 60 years of diplomatic relations. But it is in the sphere of economic relations viz developing the dedicated freight corridor, the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, the high-speed railway project, the official development assistance by Japan towards poverty reduction, improving the social sector, environment, climate change and energy, that will mark India-Japan relations in the years to come. Japan is striving hard towards innovation technology. India will do well to partake of this Japanese breakthrough, as and when it comes.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

military collaboration

Indian Army Chief's Visit to France DSA report

oming just months after the French President Francois Hollande’s visit to India, Chief of Army Staff General Bikram Singh’s four-day tour of France has helped to fill out the larger strategic picture that the French President and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh outlined in their talks in New Delhi.

It needs to be remembered that metropolitan France is an Indian Ocean power by dint of the decision of the people of Mayotte, an island group in the Indian Ocean littoral north west of Madagascar, off the African continent and the Reunion Island, a tiny speck south west of Mauritius, to be part of metropolitan France. It underscores the importance of possession of such island territories far from one’s own maritime boundaries for the protection of one’s national interests and, if necessary, for power projection within the littoral. That is why China has created its “string of pearls” stretching from the Pacific to the western expanse of the Indian Ocean / Arabian Sea. The Americans have the Diego Garcia naval base, in the Maldives group off the southern coast of the Indian peninsula. France has a permanent military presence in the Indian Ocean with an airborne marine commando regiment posted at the Reunion Island and a detachment of the French Foreign Legion consisting of 240 men deployed at Mayotte. Things are happening on the African continent that should disturb the world immensely. Several nation states there are former colonies of France, some, like Mali are in ferment and France is militarily involved in trying to curb the Islamist fundamentalist insurrection. Chad too has had its moments of instability. India has huge stakes in Africa, especially all along the eastern seaboard from the horn of Africa in the north which is connected to Europe via the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. Both India and France have coinciding interests in containing piracy by impoverished Africans on the high seas along the lines of communications of commercial shipping and energy conduits. A strategic partnership on the African continent between India and France is eminently possible given the ambit of Francophone influence in the Dark Continent and India’s acknowledgedly benign presence and role in the decolonisation of Africa even though it may appear to be a contradiction in terms of logic and history. There has been so much turmoil in Africa that it appears ripe for a healing touch that France is duty-bound to provide and India can deliver. By creating a synergy through joint exercises, the experiences can be projected through the UN Peacekeeping Operations many of which are centered in Africa at the current time. India is averse to joining multilateral military fora for such joint operations but is always willing to contribute to peacekeeping under the UN flag and this has been seen to have been salutary, given the African milieu.

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In meetings with the French Minister of Defence Jean Yves Le Drian, Chief of General Staff Admiral Edouard Guillaud and Chief of Army Staff General Bertrand Ract-Madoux, General Bikram Singh always needed to keep the larger picture in mind even as a professional soldier his interests were stirred by the locale during the visit to the Land Forces Command in Lille and the Military School at Draguignan. The Indian Army is in the process of improving its short-range surface-to-air missile capability which is organic to its mechanised forces and armoured column protection. Simultaneously too, the army, which has just been given total control over the utility and armed helicopter units, was interested in how France manages its air-land battle operations. The visit to Land Forces Command gave General Bikram Singh an insight into French doctrines and tactics. Agreements have been signed between the French firm MBDA and the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation for the joint development of a new missile taking off, after rectification, of the glitch that caused the failure of the indigenous Trishul short-range missile. The new missile is to be called Maitri. The Indian Army is currently using the OSA-AK Strella four-tube ensemble on a tracked vehicle. The Indian Army has long been using the Milan anti-tank, shoulder-fired missile and is looking for upgradation of this proven system. The Military School at Draguignan has a specialised section dealing with artillery. After the liberation of France in 1945, the school was reconstituted in Idar-Oberstein. Simultanously, a Center for Ground Anti-Aircraft Forces was created in Nîmes, before becoming the School of Applied Ground-to-Air Artillery (EAASA). In 1976, the school moved to new buildings near Draguignan where a well-stocked museum shows the evolution of surface-to-air warfare in France. Apart from hardware and employment doctrines of air-land forces, General Bikram Singh had occasion to discuss the many nuances of global terrorism of which Mali is one manifestation with the French military brass. Ever on everybody’s mind is the impending withdrawal of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force from Afghanistan. General Bikram Singh’s interactions with the French could not have ignored the likely scenarios that could arise thereafter and the consequences, as seen in the beheading of a British soldier in a London street and the Boston Marathon bombings earlier. While metropolitan France is, as yet, free from the threat of terrorist attacks on the homeland, its involvement in Mali and other terrorist hotspots could cause a blowback situation. Even as General Bikram Singh’s visit was an opportunity to update and expand cooperation in the military field, dark shadows remained over the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft contract that Dassault won for the Rafale aircraft. Dassaualt’s insistence on keeping India’s premier aerospace firm, Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd out of the production and refusal to guarantee the end product unfortunately smacks of dictation and coercion that the government of India cannot afford to be seen to be buckling under, especially after the experience of the Bofors howitzer fiasco. While there is no direct linkage with the visit of General Bikram Singh to France, it is to be hoped that his visit would have a salutary effect on the negotiation process for military hardware. Already, the possibility of the deal falling through is being reported in the media. The proposed solution – the extension of the Russian Sukhoi-30MKI (with suitable updates) – sounds eminently sensible but it is to be hoped that the government of France under Hollande will not allow the tremendous potential of the Indo-French strategic partnership to die out.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

maoist menace

DARING THE STATE?

Stop the Blame Game Now Time for

Consensus and Action!

Pawan Agrawal The writer is Publisher and Chief Executive Officer of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine owned by Ocean Media Private Limited.

A broader road map is needed at an urgent basis to craft a strategy and multi-level plan involving the state police, CRPF and of course the Army and Air Force to eliminate this menace otherwise that day is not very far when we will see their attacks in New Delhi and other metropolitan areas as they are already networked with the other anti-national elements and anti-India forces

We have all seen the performance of our Army in the North-east and Jammu and Kashmir then why are we having reservations to involve them in anti-Naxal operations?

he audacious Naxal attack, this time on state and national level politicians must ring deafening alarm bells for central and state governments and the security forces. MHA and the state government should hang their heads in shame for this worst-ever attack on the political class by the Maoists. This is the first time that some political leaders have been killed but this may not be the last such attempt if the central and state governments do not take necessary strict action immediately. It is not the time to play dirty blame game of politics. It is the responsibility of all the political parties whether in power or in opposition to take all the measures collectively so that a message goes out that the whole nation is against this Naxal menace.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

n Saturday, the 25th of May, when the whole world was celebrating Buddh Purnima, birthday of Gautam Buddha, the Compassionate One, Maoists ambushed a Congress convoy in Bastar regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Darbha forest and killed senior Congress leaders Nand Kumar Patel, Mahendra Karma and many others. Veteran Congress leader VC Shukla was grievously wounded and had to be airlifted to Gurgaon for lifesaving medicare.

And why the funds have not been used for modernising the Chhattisgarh police force when the state is infested with Maoists who keep killing innocent people and security personnel with a terrifying regularity

The audacious Naxal attack, this time on state and national level politicians must ring deafening alarm bells for central and state governments and the security forces. It has been reported that the Naxals used AK-47 and INSAS rifles in this deadly attack. The paramilitary personnel deployed in Chhattisgarh, mainly for anti-Maoist operations number more than 30,000. Then there is the state police and the intelligence establishment. Still Maoists could carry out this ghastly massacre. MHA and the state government should hang their heads in shame for this worst-ever attack on the political class by the Maoists.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

maoist menace

DARING THE STATE?

Is there anyone who would take the responsibility of the frightening escalation of the Naxal movement? And who has stopped the governments at the centre and states to take the following necessary actions to counter and control this Naxal menace which has spread in more than 230 districts of our country, 30-35 of which are gravely affected and warrant immediate attention: Total failure operations

intelligence

Lack of coordination between the central police forces and state police Inadequate provision sophisticated weapons for security forces

of the

Improper training of security forces Lack of motivation and high spirits in the security forces Timely and hard decisions I don’t understand what the centre and state governments are waiting for? How this menace could spread so fast in the past three years? The number of innocent people and our security personnel who have been killed in the past three years is much higher than the Naxalites killed in the past thirty years. Is it still not alarming enough for the governments? This is the first time that some political leaders have been killed but this may not be the last such attempt if the central and state governments do not take necessary strict action immediately and for an effective and successful campaign they need to focus on the above six vital points without further delay. It is not the time to play dirty blame game of politics. It is the responsibility of all the political parties whether in power or in opposition to take all the measures collectively so that a message goes out that the whole nation is against this Naxal menace. It’s time for a strong coordination among all the political parties to develop a consensus to counter and control this anti-people, anti-national scourge immediately.

Why the inputs provided by the NTRO UAVs of Maoist movement into this area were not shared with the CRPF and local police? Other very important aspect is that our security forces are working with a very weak system of intelligence and these Naxalites are operating in such a well developed network in the jungles that they are aware about the movements of senior leaders and they could do exactly what they wanted to but unfortunately our forces are working with no intelligence and they could not locate and monitor the movement of hundreds of Naxalites in the area and so many innocent people were brutally killed. These hundreds of Naxalites might have taken many hours to reach at the place of attack and they were well aware of who are moving in the convoy and they killed selectively. This is so shameful for all the state police officers responsible for gathering the intelligence and they should be sacked for failing in their duty. More important is the role of the security forces to combat this menace. Our premier security force responsible for the entire internal security is Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF). Without its active involvement this problem cannot be contained. The worst part is that some of the state police forces don’t extend their required support to CRPF like gathering the strong intelligence and share the same with the CRPF personnel which is affecting the counter operations. The CRPF has done a commendable job and has sacrificed the most in the Naxal operations. This is something which has to be taken on a serious note now. The state police forces must train their people as per the requirement and share the maximum information at an urgent basis with CRPF so they may control the situation in the affected areas. The central government should have a very clear road map for coordination between the state police, CRPF and other agencies responsible for the anti-Naxal operations. We have seen that the major attacks recently could happen because of the lack of proper information sharing and inadequate intelligence.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Another very important aspect to be assessed by all the policy and decision-makers working for the anti-Naxal operations is that it has become a ritual in the governments – past as well as the present to set up an enquiry commission. Then why a high powered enquiry commission under some senior IPS or Army officer – who has long hands-on experience in counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations – has not been set up who should find out the lapses behind such a heinous act by the Naxals. The high powered enquiry commission must be mandated to unravel: Why the state government intelligence failed to gather the correct information as this is quite evident that hundreds of Naxalites could not have gathered in just a few hours? Why the inputs provided by the NTRO UAVs of Maoist movement into this area were not shared with the CRPF and local police? Why the security personnel along with the convoy did not have sufficient arms and ammunition with them? Why the state police did not conduct an immediate search and combing operation in the jungles to apprehend the Maoists? Why we are not harnessing the support of our Army and Air Force to decimate these anti-national left wing extremists? Why the funds provided to the state under the MPF are not utilised for procuring the best arms, ammunition and telecommunication systems? It should also be enquired how much funds have been provided by the central government to Chhattisgarh in the past few years and how and on what these funds have been utilised? And why the funds have not been used for modernising the Chhattisgarh police force when the state is infested with Maoists who keep killing innocent people and security personnel with a terrifying regularity.

A broader road map is needed at an urgent basis to craft a strategy and multi-level plan involving the state police, CRPF and of course the Army and Air Force to eliminate this menace otherwise that day is not very far when we will see their attacks in New Delhi and other metropolitan areas as they are already networked with many other anti-national elements and anti-India forces.

The Maoists and their sympathisers romanticise and claim that the Maoists have widespread grass-roots support among the tribals and the downtrodden people in the vast swathes of our country and that they are fighting for their rights and welfare. I want to ask these Maoists if they are so popular among the people of the areas they operate in why don’t they come forward and join the legitimate electoral process, fight and win the elections and form the government and do some real good work for the people they claim to represent? I am sure this is not what Maoists want or are mandated to do. They are not friends but enemies of the people of India and must be treated as such

We have all seen the performance of our Army in the North-east and Jammu and Kashmir then why are we having reservations to involve them in anti-Naxal operations? Now the time has come when there should be a serious debate and decision on getting the country rid of these left wing extremists, whatever the cost. The Air Force should also be involved in these operations as the situation has actually gone out of the control of security forces. This is just not a normal situation, the Maoists have converted it into a war against the democratic system of governance and we are waiting for them to come back to the mainstream, which because of their deep-rooted anti-national indoctrination is almost an impossibility. These Maoists and their Indian and foreign supporters are against a democratic, strong and united India with its burgeoning economy and rising stature among the comity of nations. They are being constantly prompted, provoked and funded by enemies of India to keep hurting and damaging India in every possible way.

that the Maoists have widespread grass-roots support among the tribals and the downtrodden people in the vast swathes of our country and that they are fighting for their rights and welfare. I want to ask these Maoists if they are so popular among the people of the areas they operate in why don’t they come forward and join the legitimate electoral process, fight and win the elections and form the government and do some real good work for the people they claim to represent? I am sure this is not what Maoists want or are mandated to do. They are not friends but enemies of the people of India and must be treated as such. If hard decisions and strong measures are not taken immediately then we might see more such attacks and the situation will spiral out of control especially when the country is headed for elections in many states and general elections thereafter offering umpteen opportunities to Naxals and other anti-national elements to create mayhem.

The Maoists and their sympathisers romanticise and claim

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

tremendous potential

THE INDO-FRENCH STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

A CASE FOR MULTIPOLARITY F

rance has been one of the most trusted and reliable all-weather suppliers of weapons to India – next only perhaps to Russia. It is a long and durable friendship that has stood the test of time and many conflicts. India wanted to avoid dependence on Great Britain alone and had hence opted for French fighter aircraft right from the 1950s onward. These have served India well in combat. Aerospace cooperation in fact has been a high-water mark of the relationship between two countries that share the vision of a multipolar world order. The Arms Trade Treaty adopted by the UNO has put paid to India’s ambitions of buying its way into super power-hood / regional power status. Given the fact that India is the biggest arms importer in the world – it seems specifically designed to derail our military build-up. It underlines the imperative need for India to now rapidly create a Defence Industrial Base in its Private Sector. France can certainly help greatly in this enterprise, given the experience it already has of the Indian military and civil aviation markets. Indian cheap labour could combine with French and Japanese technology to create win-win solutions in terms of economies of scale and joint export to other markets. There is tremendous potential in this strategic partnership. Will we be able to exploit this to our mutual benefit? That alone will help usher in a multipolar world order – sooner than anticipated.

he world today is in transition from an Asymmetric Unipolar to a Multipolar world order with a number of competing local nodes of power. However this transition will be very gradual and extended. With its campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US had experienced imperial overstretch and economic decline. It has wisely cut costs by extricating itself and is now re-balancing to face a rising and truculent China in the Asia-Pacific. The USA however will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across a range of issues – economic, technological, political and military that no state can match till 2020. Thus the US decline will be gradual, not precipitate. Energy sufficiency and exploitation of Natural Gas, Shale and Fracking technologies could arrest / slow this decline. However, the rise of other countries is a phenomenon by itself (termed not so much the decline of America but the “rise of the rest”). Thus regional powers like China, Russia, India, Japan, Brazil etc will be in a position to make the US pay a heavy price for any military

action that they oppose, especially in their own backyards – hence the term asymmetric unipolar to describe the current global scenario. There is no single peer group competitor for the USA at the global level but a whole range of stand-alone Regional Powers that can compete only in their own geographical backyards.

Regional powers like China, Russia, India, Japan, Brazil etc will be in a position to make the US pay a heavy price for any military action that they oppose, especially in their own backyards – hence the term asymmetric unipolar to describe the current global scenario. There is no single peer group competitor for the USA at the global level but a whole range of stand-alone Regional Powers that can compete only in their own geographical backyards Desired end states. Geopolitically, India has to define its desired /preferred end states and also those we wish to avoid / prevent from happening. Thus the present asymmetric unipolar situation could well give way to a bipolar

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

scenario with the US and China as the two competing poles of power. Geostrategically, this would be the worst case scenario for India and will marginalise it severely. Theoretically India’s best case scenario is a Multipolar World Order with India as one of the competing new Poles of economic and military power. These could be identified as USA, EU, China, India, Russia, Japan, Israel, Turkey, Brazil and perhaps Indonesia. Such Multipolar world orders were in position before both the World Wars and were characterised by rapid alignments and realignments. Such an outcome would serve India’s national interests admirably and seek to ensure that no single power centre was able to impose its hegemony over the rest and thus curtail their autonomy /autarky. This however, does not translate into another bout of pacifist non-alignment and neutrality. In conformity with International Relations (IR) theory, India will have to learn the art and science of balancing by means of rapid alignments and re-alignments dictated solely by National Interests.

Maj Gen (Dr) GD Bakshi SM, VSM (retd) The writer is a combat veteran of many skirmishes on the Line of Control and counter-terrorist operations in Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. He subsequently commanded the reputed Romeo Force during intensive counter-terrorist operations in the Rajouri-Poonch districts. He has served two tenures at the DGMO. He is a prolific writer on matters military and non-military and has published 24 books and over 100 papers in many prestigious research journals. He is Editor-in-chief of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine.

The sole guiding criterion would be the unalloyed pursuit of national interests. The simple fact is that the Chinese Pole of power is now the fastest rising and most menacing in its new found military and economic assertiveness. The PLA seems confident that it can now outmatch any military competition in Asia and put into effect its Anti-access /Area Denial Strategy to keep the USA out of any local wars in the Asia-Pacific Region. The confidence stems primarily from the growing strength of the PLAN and PLAAF as also the operationalisation of the DF-21D aircraft carrier killer missiles and associated satellite and Over the Horizon (OTH) Radar Systems. With its batteries of 1,200 conventional tipped tactical missiles, the PLA is unabashedly exhibiting its new found confidence verging on sheer arrogance.

How does India balance such an assertive China? Too tight an embrace of the USA at this juncture would be counterproductive. The American assurances of support (when push comes to shove) unfortunately are high on promise, low on delivery How does India balance such an assertive China? Too tight an embrace of the USA at this juncture would be counterproductive. The American assurances of support (when

push comes to shove) unfortunately are high on promise, low on delivery. Post 1962, the Americans had merely provided small arms and snow clothing. They had refused to give F-104 Starfighters or Phantoms. Thus the Pentagon’s emphasis then had remained on Pakistan. It does so till today. Offers of supply of high-tech equipment to India are hobbled with a slew of restrictive legislations, as if we were asking for aid and charity and not payment in hard cash terms. Then there is the history of US unreliability due to domestic legislations. Pakistan itself has suffered badly in the past as have we, especially in the wake of Pokhran, from such sudden sanctions. The institutional memory of serious delays / disruptions caused by US sanctions in our missile and LCA programme in the past, impel India to err on the side of abundant caution. In the end, India will have to rely primarily on its own hard power capabilities when the chips are down. The Chinese are clearly worried about an Indian swing towards America. India has bent over backwards to assuage Chinese sensitivities. However, China has in return, done nothing whatsoever to curtail its nuclear, missile and military support to Pakistan. The very level and scale of this proliferation support is unprecedented in the history of

France was the first country to sign a civil nuclear deal with India. It has invested heavily in civil nuclear plants to achieve complete energy security by reducing its dependence on oil supplies from the volatile Middle East

In the face of this rising Chinese challenge, India has to rapidly re-arm and re-invent itself. All its Soviet era weapon systems have now to be replaced. The USA and West, despite their rhetoric of building-up India as a counterweight to China, have pushed through the Arms Trade Treaty Agreement in the UNO. This is consciously designed to hurt India – the world’s largest arms importer and prevent it from purchasing its way to regional / super power-hood

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

tremendous potential

international relations and seriously undermines and grievously harms our National Security Interests. China’s unqualified support (bordering on a military alliance) has encouraged Pakistan to mount an asymmetric warfare offensive to bleed India for the past three decades. China will have to reciprocate concern for Indian sensitivities. Our stance on Tibet will have to be equated in future with China’s hostile stance on Jammu and Kashmir and support to the Maoist and North-east insurgents. Their support to Pakistan will have to be balanced with our reaching out equally aggressively to Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. It cannot be a one way street and China must reciprocate India’s efforts to assuage its security concerns. The PLA should not be overly arrogant as it has not fought a war for over 32 years now and will find that peacetime soldiering rusts the best of armies. The unified and militaristic leadership of the Maoist era has given way to many competing centres of power in China and an increasing gulf between the civil and military establishments.

The Chinese are clearly worried about an Indian swing towards America. India has bent over backwards to assuage Chinese sensitivities. However, China has in return, done nothing whatsoever to curtail its nuclear, missile and military support to Pakistan

India’s grand strategy: Countering the Arms Trade Treaty In the face of this rising Chinese challenge, India has to rapidly re-arm and re-invent itself. All its Soviet era weapon systems have now to be replaced. India has chosen to do it primarily by importing 70 per cent of its high-tech weapons. The USA and West, despite their rhetoric of building-up India as a counterweight to China, have pushed through the Arms Trade Treaty Agreement in the UNO. This is consciously designed to hurt India – the world’s largest arms importer and prevent it from purchasing its way to regional / super power-hood. We should first carefully scrutinise the voting record on this ATT resolution before we place any further arms orders.

This Treaty is designed to sucker us out of our dollars, take payments and then refuse to deliver weapons on the specious plea of Human Rights violations. We will carefully have to choose whom we buy the weapons from. Russia and France along with Israel have been our most trustworthy and reliable arms sales partners in the past. It would be sensible to bet on tried and tested arms relationships that have proved reliable in conflict situations in the past.

Building an indigenous arms industry in the private sector Above all India will have to redouble / treble its efforts to rapidly build a viable arms industry in the private sector that can assure quality products and generate much needed employment. This is where France could figure in a big way. Next to Russia, it has been our most trusted and reliable weapons supplier. The roots of this relationship are embedded in the Aerospace cooperation between the two countries. In 1953 we purchased 104 x Ouragans and later 104 x Mysteres that served us very well in the 1965 War. In fact a Mystere shot down an American F-104 Starfighter in that war and provided good close air support. The Mirage 2000 served us phenomenally well in the Kargil conflict and the IAF was deeply impressed with the efficacy and sortie generation rate of this aircraft. India’s Utility Helicopters fleet’s mainstay have been the 270 Light Alouette helicopters which were license produced in India. The French helped us manufacture anti-tank guided missiles. Later we got the Anglo-French Jaguar Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft which are still in service. The IAF is now going in for 126 x Rafale MMRCA fighters with a 50 per cent offset clause that should give a fillip to our local defence industry. French Company Snecma is assisting HAL in aero engines for the ALH as also the Kaveri engines for LCA. Turbomeca is helping HAL in making Shakti engines for the twin engine Dhruv. The key issue is whether India and France can now transit from a pure buyer-seller relationship to one that involves joint Research and Development and

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

involves French help in establishing a Defence Industrial Base in the Indian Private Sector.

Our stance on Tibet will have to be equated in future with China’s hostile stance on Jammu and Kashmir and support to the Maoist and North-east Insurgents. Their support to Pakistan will have to be balanced with our reaching out equally aggressively to Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. It cannot be a one way street and China must reciprocate India’s efforts to assuage its security concerns Air exercises: Since 2003 we have held the Garuda series of air exercises with the French Air Force that gave us valuable experience in Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air combat, operations with AWACs as also air to air refuelling. In one of these exercises at Kalikunda, the IAF competed against the F-16s of the Singapore Air Force to gain valuable experience in operating against this primary aircraft of the Pakistani stable. Aerospace: France had helped India establish the Sriharikota rocket test ranges. Later French Ariane rockets had launched our Apple Satellite and other geostationary satellites. Indian PSLV rockets have thereafter lifted 1,000 kg satellites of both Indian and French origin. Aerospace cooperation has emerged as the primary flagship of Indo-French relations. Maritime cooperation: The French had sold India 12 x Alize turboprop aircraft for anti-submarine warfare. These operated from the Vikrant aircraft carrier and rendered yeoman service. In 2005 India had signed a contract with the Thales (DCN) for six Scorpène submarines at a cost of US$ 3 billion. Four of these are to be manufactured in India and two are to be built in France. These include the CM-2000 diesel electric submarines in the 1,565 ton class and two AM-2000 AIP submarines in the 1,870 ton class. The delivery schedule has slipped badly and hopefully these will come in by 2016-2018 – before our Kilos are phased out entirely. Otherwise there will be a glaring gap in our submarine order of battle. India

and France have annually held Varuna Series of Naval Exercises. From 2002 onwards the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle (nuclear powered) has participated in these every year. France has four major Island Bases in the IOR namely Mayotte and La Reunion, alongwith bases in Dijibouti and Abu Dhabi. France may need India’s help in safeguarding these bases and play a significant role in the IOR in some contingencies. Nuclear civil / military cooperation: France was the first country to sign a civil nuclear deal with India. It has invested heavily in civil nuclear plants to achieve complete energy security by reducing its dependence on oil supplies from the volatile Middle East. It is in the process of setting up six Nuclear Power Plants in India. France could give India Uranium enrichment technology to fuel its new reactors and make India a joint base for providing nuclear support services to Asia and beyond. India has cheap labour and this coupled with French and Japanese technology could help spread civil nuclear power in Asia. France is also helping Brazil build a nuclear submarine. India and France could collaborate in the building of nuclear submarines in India. This would certainly enable India to match the Chinese nuclear submarine

fleet and strengthen its seaward leg of deterrence. Military technology: The Thales group is helping an Indian Company manufacture APCs (Armoured Personnel Carriers) as it is doing with Australia. It is this kind of co-operation that could help to establish a vibrant and functional Defence Industrial Base in India in the private sector. In the field of Homeland Security, the Safran group are leaders in biometric technologies. They are reportedly already engaged with the UID Project. The Thales group also has a range of Security solutions for Urban Infrastructure. French companies could partner with Indian Private Industry to produce much needed equipment for Homeland Defence. India and France are already collaborating in the production of missiles and technology for the Tejas aircraft. They could also cooperate in the manufacture of Drones, UAVs and UCAVs.

Conclusion France has been one of the most trusted and reliable all-weather suppliers of weapons to India – next only perhaps to Russia. It is a long and durable friendship that has stood the test of time and many conflicts. India wanted to avoid dependence

on Great Britain alone and had hence opted for French fighter aircraft right from the 1950s onward. These have served India well in combat. Aerospace cooperation in fact has been a high-water mark of the relationship between two countries that share the vision of a multipolar world order. Is it time to take the relationship from a tactical and transactional level to one that is more strategic and sustainable? The Arms Trade Treaty adopted by the UNO has put paid to India’s ambitions of buying its way into super power-hood / regional power status. Given the fact that India is the biggest arms importer in the world – it seems specifically designed to derail our military build-up. It underlines the imperative need for India to now rapidly create a Defence Industrial Base in its Private Sector. France can certainly help greatly in this enterprise, given the experience it already has of the Indian military and civil aviation markets. Indian cheap labour could combine with French and Japanese technology to create win-win solutions in terms of economies of scale and joint export to other markets. There is tremendous potential in this strategic partnership. Will we be able to exploit this to our mutual benefit? That alone will help usher in a multipolar world order – sooner than anticipated.

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strategic partnership

ENERGY REVOLUTION

Indo-French Nuclear Collaboration

Prospects and Challenges T

his very interesting article evaluates Indo-French Cooperation in the field of Nuclear energy. In the nuclear sector, the two countries share similarities such as a strong role of the government and in fuel cycles. Overlapping interests offer them an opportunity to carve out a productive and constructive nuclear engagement based on a history of a cordial and supportive relationship in the past. France is keen to export its nuclear technology and expertise to an India that has just entered the field of international nuclear commerce. India, on the other hand, with a fast growing economy is eager to invest in infrastructure for sustainable socio-economic development. The country is eager to dip into the French nuclear kitty in order to meet energy generation projections that estimate the need for electricity supply to grow from present day 200 GW to nearly 800 GW by 2030.

n 30 September 2008, just days after the Nuclear Suppliers Group enabled India’s entry into international nuclear commerce and even before the US Congress passed the 123 Agreement in October 2008, France had signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with India. It envisaged wide-ranging cooperative activities, including in nuclear power projects, research and development, nuclear safety, education and training. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed between AREVA and NPCIL in February 2009 which included discussions for setting up the European Pressurised Reactors of 1,650 MW capacity in India at Jaitapur in Maharashtra. The French Parliament unanimously approved the accord on 24 November 2009. By the end of 2010 a General Framework Agreement and an Early Works Agreement had been signed outlining the initial scope of work, division of responsibility for design, material, technology and services and regulatory aspects. The financial appraisal of the project was underway when the earthquake and tsunami struck Fukushima nuclear plants in Japan in March 2011. The impact of this unprecedented nuclear disaster was felt across the world, including at the nuclear plants planned at Jaitapur. Public apprehension over nuclear safety

resulted in protests that also became mixed-up with issues of choice of reactor technology, cost of nuclear energy, land acquisition and compensation etc to form a tangled knot. While the Indian government remains committed to its vision of enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the country’s energy mix, there has been a bit of a slowdown in the ongoing work.

Taking a leaf out of the French experience it would be worthwhile for the government to encourage conducted tours of nuclear stations for school and college students, the general public and most importantly for the media, which can prove to be a powerful tool for educating and influencing public opinion on the relevance and importance of nuclear power in India’s energy scenario As India seeks to restore public confidence and build public support for nuclear power, the French experience of handling challenges of public acceptance are worth noting. France today has 59 nuclear power plants producing 63 GWe that caters for nearly 80 per cent of the country’s electricity needs. This has been enabled by the pursuit of a resolute and consistent energy policy that the country consciously adopted after suffering the oil crisis in the early 1970s. The shock awakened France to its energy vulnerability owing to

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Ms (Dr) Manpreet Sethi The writer is an ICSSR Senior Fellow affiliated to the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi.

the large scale dependence on fuel imports and in its search for energy security, it hit upon nuclear power as the most viable source of electricity. Through the 1970s-90s, its nuclear programme was projected as a symbol of national pride and contributor to energy independence. The French were able to foster this mindset not only by the safe, consistent and cheap production of nuclear electricity but through a well planned education campaign that included encouraging the common man to visit nuclear plants and related industrial facilities. This helped dispel public fears about nuclear power and reduced the distance between ‘high technology’ and common man. In India, the nuclear establishment and decision-making has been largely removed from the general public. Taking a leaf out of the French experience it would be worthwhile for the government to encourage conducted tours of nuclear stations for school and college students, the general public and most importantly for the media, which can prove to be a powerful tool for educating and influencing public opinion on the relevance and importance of nuclear power in India’s energy scenario.

Why nuclear energy for India? That India cannot afford to abandon

nuclear energy is an imperative arising from its ever increasing electricity requirements and ever decreasing options. India is a rapidly growing economy which is also simultaneously experiencing population growth. It has a low per capita energy availability of only 778 kWh compared to even the middle income countries that have 5,000 to 7,000 kWh. India is projected to have the highest growing electricity demand in the world at 5.7 per cent per annum.

in sufficiently large quantities within the country, which is not the case in India. Hauling gas over pipelines from other countries, which for India has to be overland through Pakistan has little political and strategic traction. Renewable sources of energy are an option and the country has been exploiting hydro and wind energy. But they have limitations in terms of full time availability, energy storage and cost competitiveness.

Nuclear energy, in contrast, is a dense form of energy and needs far lesser land to produce the same amount of electricity. Meanwhile, contemporary trends such as improvements in nuclear plant capacity factors, reduction in construction time etc have rationalised per unit cost of nuclear electricity. Given its benefits and the maturity of India in handling nuclear technology since the country today has more than 300 reactor years of safe commercial operation, India cannot afford to rule out nuclear energy from its basket of fuel sources.

How is the country to meet this demand? Coal currently provides nearly 55 per cent of the total electricity production in the country, but dependence on imports is rising by the day since indigenously available coal is of low quality with high ash content and caught in a domestic wrangle of its own. As environmental concerns, which will only increase as extreme climatic events affect populations across the world, compel greater dependence on carbon neutral sources of energy, the focus will have to shift from coal. Natural gas is a relatively clean and cheap source of electricity, but only if it is available

India benefits from collaborating with the French nuclear industry which is the most powerful global nuclear player that controls significant market shares in all nuclear activities ranging from uranium mining to nuclear waste management. France offers the entire range of services to India – from collaborating in construction of the reactor to providing lifetime fuel supplies through its own infrastructure

Meanwhile, tie-ups between the Indian and French manufacturing industry allow India to reap the benefit of French quality at Indian prices. Jobs are created in the Indian market and overall this could contribute to increasing the public support for nuclear energy

India and France also share common cause in reinforcing national and international approaches to nuclear safety and non-proliferation

Why cooperation with France? The challenge rather is to steadily increase the share of nuclear electricity. While India is indigenously building 700 MWe plants, the import of even higher capacity reactors offers the possibility of rapid addition. Cooperation with France has to be seen from this perspective since the construction of the nuclear park at Jaitapur which would on

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strategic partnership

completion of six reactors provide 9,900 MW of electricity would signify a big jump.

France has also suggested that it would be willing to provide reprocessing technology to India, an issue on which the other nuclear suppliers are more diffident India benefits from collaborating with the French nuclear industry which is the most powerful global nuclear player that controls significant market shares in all nuclear activities ranging from uranium mining to nuclear waste management. France offers the entire range of services to India – from collaborating in construction of the reactor to providing lifetime fuel supplies through its own infrastructure. At the same time, France has no objection to India reprocessing the spent fuel obtained from such reactors built by the French. In fact, the French nuclear programme also follows the philosophy of a closed fuel cycle and perceives spent nuclear fuel as a resource rather than just as waste. For instance, the reprocessing plant at Normandy recovers 8.5 tonnes of plutonium and 810 tonnes of reprocessed uranium each year from 850 tonnes of spent fuel treated at the plant. The plutonium is fabricated into MOX fuel which is currently being used in about 20 of the 900 MWe reactors. The reprocessed uranium is converted into U3O8 for interim storage or to UF6 for re-enrichment in the centrifuge facilities. With these arrangements working well, EdF claims that 20 per cent of its electricity is now produced from recycled materials. India too has used MOX fuel in some of its reactors and there is a consonance of views here that provides potential for further cooperation. In fact, France has also suggested that it would be willing to provide reprocessing technology to India, an issue on which the other nuclear suppliers are more diffident. Meanwhile, tie-ups between the Indian and French manufacturing industry allow India to reap the benefit of French quality at Indian prices. Jobs are created in the Indian market and overall this could contribute to increasing the public support for nuclear energy. The

strategic partnership

ENERGY REVOLUTION emergence of India as a possible nuclear manufacturing hub would not only be a boon for the domestic nuclear programme but also help India to position itself as a meaningful nuclear supplier in the future. At the same time, India offers a chance for the French nuclear industry to tie-up with the fairly advanced Indian industry for manufacture of nuclear components and systems. The Indian industry has been able to meet all requirements of indigenous nuclear power plants, including steam generators, turbines, electrical equipment, heat exchangers, pumps, pressure vessels etc. This domestic capability offers French nuclear vendors the opportunity to localise their supply chain for plants to be constructed in India as well as for export to other projects elsewhere. Given that India can prove to be a low cost production hub, it would enhance competitiveness of French PWRs. Not surprisingly, therefore, joint ventures between Indian and French companies have already been formed. In July 2009, BHEL formed a joint venture with AREVA and Bharat Forge Ltd and Sheffield Forgemasters of the UK as a technical partner, to set up a manufacturing facility for heavy forgings in India. The plant was expected to begin operations by 2012 and to supply 8-10 forgings during the first year of operation. AREVA has also finalised terms of agreement with the Indian engineering company Tata Consulting Engineers Limited for the supply of engineering services. Such business models serve the interest of both sides – for the parent company, the local support partner brings the benefit of already developed facilities, trained people, manufacturing experience and awareness of the local context; the second partner of the JV gains through technology transfer, access to markets and exposure to global operating best practices. India and France also share common cause in reinforcing national and international approaches to nuclear safety and non-proliferation. For the growth of a safe and responsible nuclear industry, it is important that safety regulations are accorded the

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

highest importance and the risks of nuclear proliferation are minimised. The French nuclear exports can boom only when these two conditions are met. In the case of India too, the promise of nuclear energy for large scale electricity generation can be realised only if safety is ensured. Any accident in a nuclear utility is certain to spell the doom of the national nuclear enterprise. Therefore, it is in the interest of both nations to press for acceptance of international nuclear safety best practices. Owing to a long history of bilateral cooperation, India and France have a good mutual understanding of each other’s political system, working methods and industry practices. In the nuclear sector, they share similarities such as a strong role of the government and in fuel cycles. Overlapping interests offer them an opportunity to carve out a productive and constructive nuclear engagement based on a history of a cordial and supportive relationship in the past. France is keen to export its nuclear technology and expertise to an India that has just entered the field of international nuclear commerce. India, on the other hand, with a fast growing economy is eager to invest in infrastructure for sustainable socio-economic development. The country is eager to dip into the French nuclear kitty in order to meet energy generation projections that estimate the need for electricity supply to grow from present day 200 GW to nearly 800 GW by 2030. Meeting this target requires nothing less than an energy revolution in the next couple of decades. A continued demographic growth, rising aspirations of a young and demanding populace, lack of indigenous fuel resources, mounting proof of climate change requiring GHG reductions are challenges that call for a long-term vision and commitment. Five decades ago Homi Bhabha had stated “No power is costlier than no power”. This is more true today than ever before since an electricity shortfall that obstructs national economic growth and development would prove to be extremely costly – not just in economic but also in social developmental goals.

new drdo chief

TEAM DSA CONGRATULATES AND WELCOMES DR AVINASH CHANDER AS SCIENTIFIC ADVISOR TO DEFENCE MINISTER AND DRDO CHIEF Dr Avinash Chander has been appointed as the new Scientific Advisor to Defence Minister, Secretary Deptt of Defence R&D and DG DRDO. “I feel honoured to take up this new responsibility. Dr Saraswat has set DRDO on a good course, I have to continue and take it to the next level” said Dr Avinash Chander on his appointment. In recognition of his immense contributions towards strengthening the National Defence, Government of India has recently honoured him with the prestigious PADMA SHRI Award. Dr Avinash Chander, is an eminent Missile Scientist and the Chief Architect of the Long Range Ballistic Missile System AGNI. He Envisioned and evolved the Strategies for Long Range Missiles and led the design and development of AGNI series of Missile Systems – AGNI A1, A2, A3, A4 and A5 providing cutting edge, decisive Strategic Weapon systems to the Armed Forces, leading to the Successful development of the Nation’s pride, ‘5000+ Km range AGNI 5 Strategic Weapon System’ propelling India to join the elite club of five advanced nations. Development of Agni Range of missiles in highly restrictive International Control Regimes was possible only out of his technology forecast, perspective planning and relentless efforts. He created the infrastructure, industry base, production lines, and integration facilities to produce different classes of AGNI Missile Systems. Today, the AGNI A1, A2, A3 Missiles occupy the pride of place in the inventories of the Indian Armed Forces Shri Avinash Chander had joined DRDO in 1972 after completing graduation in Electrical Engineering from IIT Delhi. He obtained MS in Spatial Information Technology from JNTU, Hyderabad. He is a Fellow of Indian National Academy of Engineers, Fellow of Systems Society of India, Fellow of Andhra Pradesh Academy of Sciences and Vice-President of Astronautical Society of India. The distinguished scientist has received numerous awards and honours including DRDO Scientist of the Year, Astronautical Society of India Rocketry and related Technologies Award, Dr. Biren Roy Space Science and Design Award, Agni Self-reliance Award, Path Breaking Research/Outstanding Technology Development Award, Outstanding Technologist Award by Punjab Technical University, Technology Leadership Award, Distinguished Alumnus Award of IIT, Delhi.

Exclusive for DSA by World News Tomorrow WORLD NEWS TOMORROW – European Centre for Information Policy and Security (ECIPS) indicated that during 2011 NATO requested India to an MOC (memorandum of cooperation) to combat possible cyber warfare. During the same year India and US had signed a cyber security cooperation agreement. Although NATO officials remarked in context of India's sensitivity against military alliances and its commitment to non-alignment, little has happened since. According to some global security experts it seems that India hosts some of the world best Hackers and IT specialists. The latest cyber hacking of the RPG Group of companies in India, became the latest victim of online banking fraud when cyber criminals hacked into the firm's Mumbai-based current account and siphoned off Rs 2.41 crore in three hours on May 11. The President Baretzky of the ECIPS (European Centre for Information Policy and Security) indicated that these same risks would apply to cyber warfare and military capability that is linked to the net. The President Baretzky stressed their concerns that the possibility of a cyber attack within India or from hackers with the territory is a very real threat to India seeing that any cyber attack from criminals residing in India on foreign companies could spark unprecedented and unwanted results. The ECIPS urged Indian authorities to reach out and to reconsider its non-alignment in fighting of cyber crime in the global arena.

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strategic partnership

SCOPE AND SCALE

he Admiral takes an exhaustive look at the scope and scale of Indo-French cooperation in Maritime affairs. He lists French need to protect its island territories and SLOCs in the Indian Ocean as also France’s strategic sales of weapons as possible areas of cooperation. A very significant strategic factor for the Indian Navy is the technology transfer in respect of the French Scorpène submarines, a contract for the same was inked by India in 2005, with Armaris (Thales) and Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN) for construction of 6 Scorpène class submarines in India, at a cost of € 3 billion. The submarines would be assembled at Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL), but all the critical parts like torpedo tubes, missile launchers, sonars, propellers etc would be manufactured by DCN and the electronic packages would be provided by Thales. The Scorpènes are supposed to be better than the Agosta 90B’s supplied by France to Pakistan. The Scorpène has a heavier hull, higher speed and a lesser manning complement. It can be fitted with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system. France has set the tone by engaging with India in a strategic outreach of transfer of technology and joint development ventures in defence, nuclear power and satellites, it only has to nurture this with foresight to become the main partner in the story of India’s indigenisation and its gradual rise as a regional power.

rance continues to accord strategic importance to the Indian Ocean region in the post cold war scenario. This article aims to highlight how France has cultivated and nurtured its influence in the region through its geographical presence / naval ties and the interdependencies developed through military equipment sales.

France has its outposts at Mayotte and La Reunion and military bases in Djibouti and Abu Dhabi. The Mayotte archipelago consists of two major islands and a number of small islets between NE Mozambique and NW Madagascar in the Mozambique Channel. Though geographically it is a part of the Comoros Islands, its people preferred accession to France in 2009. The Foreign Legion detachment in Mayotte has strength of 270 personnel and can act as a rapid reaction force. This contingent exercises mainly with Madagascar armed forces, adds to security and maritime surveillance of the Mozambique Channel and can be used for humanitarian assistance tasks in the area. Mayotte has an EEZ of 63,078 sq km. Reunion (La Reunion) is an island ~120 km SW of Mauritius and East of Madagascar.

Reunion provides a convenient access to SLOCs in eastern and southern coast of Africa. France maintains a small naval presence at Reunion Islands through its naval base at Pointe des Galets, which has a frigate, a support ship and some patrol craft. Reunion has an EEZ of 31,5058 sq km.

Indian Navy has been carrying out joint naval exercises with French Navy since 1993, however it is to the credit of the French Navy that it was the first navy to re-commence the exercises in 2000, post the 1998 Pokhran blasts Republic of Djibouti is strategically located in the horn of Africa, with Gulf of Aden and Red Sea as its eastern borders. It shares its borders with Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Djibouti’s location offers a controlling position over the busiest shipping lanes in the world. Its Camp Lemonnier military base (ex France) has been leased to USA and is being upgraded by an investment of US$ 1.4 billion to house over 1,000 US Special Forces. France, under a defence treaty, pays € 30 million / year for keeping up to 3,000 troops under the

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Forces Françaises de Djibouti. France has also stationed marine, air force and army units at Djibouti with fighter aircraft at Ambouli airport. Djibouti provides a military access to SLOCs between Red Sea and Indian Ocean, which carry the bulk of French energy supplies. Interestingly, since 2012, China too has got a foothold in Djibouti, as its China Harbour Engineering Company is executing a US$ 64 million project of constructing an ore terminal for export of salt to SE Asia. “The permanent French military installation in Abu Dhabi shows the responsibility that France, as a global power, agrees to assume with its closest partners, in a region that is a fault line for the whole world.” – President Nicolas Sarkozy, 2009. In 2009, France signed an agreement with Emirates to operate a military base at Abu Dhabi. The naval base is at port Mina Zayed and can berth French naval ships except aircraft carriers. The air force base is at Al Dhafra which can house fighter aircraft. The army base (Urban Combat Training and intelligence) is at Zayed and the famous

Rear Admiral (Dr) S Kulshrestha (retd) The writer is a Gold Medalist in MSc (Solid State Physics). He was awarded Sword of Honour and has specialised in Quality Assurance of Naval Armaments. He superannuated in the post of Director General of Naval Armament Inspection. As DGNAI, he was directly responsible for timely availability of reliable and safe naval armament to the Indian Navy.

13th Démi-Brigade de Légion Étrangère has been relocated to this base from Djibouti, without diluting the French military presence at Djibouti. Abu Dhabi is located near the junction of Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. This base provides France access to the SLOCs in Persian Gulf and ensures safety of its oil supplies. In 2011 France has signed an agreement with Kenya for cooperation in the fields of international security, economic partnership and scientific collaboration amongst others. France has also gifted a patrol boat for helping Kenya in its fight against sea piracy. France has nurtured its relationship with South Africa with which it holds regular military exercises. Both countries are looking for greater cooperation in ensuring maritime security in association with other countries. France, Mozambique and South Africa carried out ‘Operation Oxide’ an anti-piracy naval exercise in 2011. In addition to the above, the French presence also comprises of its Territory of the French Southern and Antarctica Lands, which have Scattered Islands (around Madagascar), Crozet Islands (South of Madagascar) and the St Paul, Amsterdam and the Kerguelen Islands in southern Indian Ocean. Further south, it has its claims in the Antarctica. The Combined EEZ of all the French territories in the Indian Ocean amounts to around 1 million sq km! The claimed EEZ in the Antarctica region is about 1.7 million sq km. Thus it can be seen that France has a significant strategic presence from Emirates in the Persian Gulf, Djibouti in the Gulf of Aden, off Madagascar and down to the Kerguelen Islands in the Southern Indian Ocean Region. Further it has ensured that its national interests in its energy supply lines and the extensive EEZ are carefully monitored and guarded.

Export of military equipment

He has two MPhil degrees pertaining to nanotechnology and associated issues and has a Doctorate from ‘School of International Studies’ at the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). He is also an alumnus of the prestigious National Defence College (NDC), NHCC and DSSC. He is an ardent exponent of indigenisation. He has been writing in defence journals on issues related to Armament technology and indigenisation.

France had been the third largest exporter of military equipment till last year when it was overtaken by China.

Military exports have very high significance in building deep security bonds with the recipient states, as unlike the commercial purchase agreements, the military hardware has other commitments and costs attached to it

France had been the third largest exporter of military equipment till last year when it was overtaken by China. Military exports have very high significance in building deep security bonds with the recipient states, as

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

SCOPE AND SCALE

unlike the commercial purchase agreements, the military hardware has other commitments and costs attached to it. Military contracts require consent of the participating governments (which more often than not lead to hefty payoffs). These contracts last over much longer periods due to requirements of spares and subsequent upgrades, the equipment is by and large unique and the costs of replacing the same with similar items from a different country, often entails setting up of completely new infrastructure with its testing and maintenance facilities. The purchase prices are not easy to compare, they depend to a large extent upon the relationships between the supplier and the recipient state. States engage in defence purchases to hedge against the eventuality of confronting perceived / actual adversaries, so they need assurances of continued and quick supplies during breakout of hostilities. They also expect that the supplier being a developed country would exert influence in their favour in the international forum and if need be, they reciprocate by taking stances as called upon to by the supplier state. The military equipment supply contracts are mutually complex, dependent upon foreign policy and impinge upon national interests of both the countries, they are not necessarily available to a state with just a large amount of surplus cash. Such contracts thus create a strategic mutual interdependency for the states.

In February this year, France and India have signed a contract worth US$ 6 billion to co-develop a Short Range Surface to Air Missile, by MBDA and DRDO, for deployment by both the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force France has been a major arms supplier to the region enveloping the Indian Ocean, as can be illustratively deciphered from the EU report for Arms Export1 pertaining to declarations by member countries for the year 2009.

France has exported military equipment to following regions during 2009: NE Asia (comprising China, Both Koreas, Japan, Mongolia and Taiwan) – € 432687787. South Asia (Comprising of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka) – € 1144433941. SE Asia (Comprising of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor Leste, Vietnam) – € 662697312. In addition to the above, military equipment sales in the general region buffeting the Indian Ocean, ie to Sub-Saharan Africa (€ 206824042) and Oceania (€ 669510368) indicate seriousness of strategic interests of France in the Indian Ocean Region. In fact France has created an overarching umbrella of strategic relationships in this region which can only be outmatched by USA. Coming to arms sales to India and Pakistan in 2009, the EU report reveals that France sold defence equipment worth € 224144732 to Pakistan and worth € 914654240 to India. As far as Pakistan is concerned, since April 2010, France has suspended sale of Missiles and other electronic equipment worth € 6 billion meant for JF-17 aircraft. It is understood that France was worried about protection of its technology as the items were to be assembled in Pakistan.

Franco-Indian naval links Indian Navy has been carrying out joint naval exercises with French Navy since 1993, however it is to the credit of the French Navy that it was the first navy to re-commence the exercises in 2000, post the 1998 Pokhran blasts. The joint exercise was carried out with the aim to validate tactical doctrines and new weapons and sensors, it was titled ‘Springex 2000’. Indian Navy has subsequently institutionalised

the annual exercises with French Navy and they are called Varuna. The last Varuna exercise in 2012 was carried out in the Mediterranean. It comprised replenishment at sea, surface and air target strikes, helicopter operations and anti-submarine warfare amongst others. Such exercises have led to development of joint operating doctrines in carrying out Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief and anti-piracy operations.

With China ramping up its own influence in the region by providing lucrative arms deals, affordable infrastructure and a rapidly growing PLA Navy, France would face a serious contender especially since it will not be able to match the prices offered by either China or the USA Another very significant strategic factor for the Indian Navy is the technology transfer in respect of the French Scorpène submarines, a contract for the same was inked by India in 2005, with Armaris (Thales) and Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN) for construction of 6 Scorpène class submarines in India, at a cost of € 3 billion. The submarines would be assembled at Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL), but all the critical parts like torpedo tubes, missile launchers, sonars, propellers etc would be manufactured by DCN and the electronic packages would be provided by Thales. The Scorpènes are supposed to be better than the Agosta 90B’s supplied by France to Pakistan. The Scorpène has a heavier hull, higher speed and a lesser manning complement. It can be fitted with Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system. The first four are likely to be the CM-2000 version with 12PA4 V 200 SMDS diesel electric propulsion system, having a length of 61.7 metres and a displacement of 1,565 tons. The last two could be the AM-2000 version with both the diesel electric as well as the MESMA AIP system. The AIP version could be 70 meters in length with a displacement of 1870 tons. The submarines will be equipped with Submarine Tactical Integrated

1. Twelfth annual report according to article 8(2) of council common position 2008/944/cf sp defining common rules governing control of exports of military Technology and equipment. Official Journal of the European Union (2011/C 9/01).

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Combat System SUBTICS, Integrated long range sonar suite S-Cube, search and attack periscopes by Thales Optronic Systems and SATCOM / VLS communication systems by Elbit systems.

The sphere of influence being desired by France in the Indian Ocean region has been shaped by a combination of its own energy and EEZ security requirements as well as by forging long term relationships with countries through supply of military equipment The armament suite would comprise of up to four SM 39 Exocet (by MBDA) missiles (36 SM-39 have already been ordered) with a range of 180 km and up to 16 torpedoes (not yet finalised) of the type Black Shark / SeaHake / Spearfish etc. The submarine delivery has however suffered delays due to problems at MDL, procurement of items from local sources and pulling out by the Spanish consultant Navantia. However US$ 75 million worth of contract orders have already been placed by DCNS for Indigenous procurement with companies like Flash Forge, Visakhapatnam and SEC Industries Hyderabad. Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Company Ltd is likely to forge strategic partnership with DCNS for building warships. The success of the submarine programme is imperative in realising blue water aspirations of the Indian Navy.

As far as the Indian Navy is concerned the Indo-French cooperative strategic relationship is well entrenched and likely to flourish more and more with passage of time and maturity Further, in February this year, France and India have signed a contract worth US$ 6 billion to co-develop a Short Range Surface to Air Missile, by MBDA and DRDO, for deployment by both the Indian Navy and the Indian Air Force. Thus it can be seen that as far as the Indian Navy is concerned the Indo-French cooperative strategic relationship is well entrenched and likely to flourish more and more with passage of time and maturity.

There appear no conflicts of interests between aspirations of France and India in the IOR region The sphere of influence being desired by France in the Indian Ocean region has been shaped by a combination of its own energy and EEZ security requirements as well as by forging long term relationships with countries through supply of military equipment. In a way, France has sprinkled its gems wisely and commands influence far in access to its maritime forces in the area. Its major competitor today is the United States, with which it has friendly relations. However with China ramping up its own influence in the region by providing lucrative arms deals, affordable infrastructure and a rapidly growing PLA Navy, France would face a serious contender

especially since it will not be able to match the prices offered by either China or the USA. As far as India is concerned it is on a path of indigenous weapon development and production, therefore the foreign constituents in military procurement would rapidly reduce within the next decade. There appear no conflicts of interests between aspirations of France and India in the IOR region. France has set the tone by engaging with India in a strategic outreach of transfer of technology and joint development ventures in defence, nuclear power and satellites, it only has to nurture this with foresight to become the main partner in the story of India’s indigenisation and its gradual rise as a regional power.

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strategic partnership

PRAGMATIC EVALUATION

DEFENCE COOPERATION BETWEEN INDIA AND FRANCE

pragmatic evaluation of Indo-French defence cooperation over the years. The Scorpène submarine deal valued at US$ 3 billion was signed in October 2005 with a subsidiary of the Thales group and DCN. Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) will assemble six submarines as per a technology transfer agreement. These submarines will be armed with 36 MBDA SM 39 Exocet anti-ship missiles and Black Shark torpedoes. Apart from this 49 Mirage 2000 are being upgraded at a cost of US$ 3 billion. India is procuring 126 Rafale Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) from Dassault Aviation which would be worth US$ 15 billion. The Commercial Negotiating Committee is in progress and is leaving no stone unturned to complete the process expeditiously. After Russia, France has been perhaps India’s second most trusted arms supplier.

he French entered India during the Mughal period mainly as professionals who could provide expert advice particularly in the field of medicine. In the 18th century French General Dupleix was involved in the power play with local South Indian rulers of the Deccan and fought battles against the British led by Robert Clive. Despite winning the initial battles the French were defeated in the Battle of Arcot in 1751 and finally surrendered to the British in 1752. There was again a mixed bag of successes till they were finally defeated at Wandiwash in 1760. Like Great Britain, France established colonies in India at Pondicherry (now Puducherry), Karikal, Yanam and Chandannagar currently in West Bengal. France established diplomatic relations with India on attaining independence in 1947. The attacks by Pakistan in October 1947 compelled India to have credible armed forces that could guard her critical security interests. However, our country in the 1950’s believed that disputes with neighbours could be resolved by non-alignment and non-violence. At that time our indigenous capability to produce defence equipment was confined to artillery shells, small arms with its associated ammunition and the 25 pounder Gun. There was a dire need to buy defence equipment which was necessary to keep the three services in a state of readiness to meet anticipated threats from Pakistan. India naturally looked to Great Britain from whom she procured the Vampire aircraft and other military equipment. India

found that it was incorrect to only rely on Great Britain and searched for defence equipment from other countries. France stood as a good alternative. The first procurement from France was undertaken in 1949. The equipment comprised mountain kits for troops operating in Kashmir from the Indian Army. Further 71 pieces of MD-450 Ouragan aircraft were acquired in 1953. These were followed by purchase of 110 Mystere-4A fighters and 164 AMX-13/Model-51 light tanks in 1956. The other important items procured from France pre 1962 were 12 Alize anti-submarine warfare aircraft and the popular SA-316 B Alouette light helicopters which were effective in high altitude. The French equipment supplied was appreciated by the armed forces but political divergences strained defence relations between France and India. Our country did not wish Great Britain to be our sole arms supplier and at the same time while receiving French military equipment was critical of French colonial policy. It was only after French withdrawal from Indo-China and Algeria that relations between the two countries improved.

Defence relations 1962-1971 Defence relations with France remained isolated until 1962 despite procurement of arms by India. The Chinese War of 1962 was a major turning point for India’s defence policy. The military defeat in 1962 compelled India to modernise her armed forces. The modernisation

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

involved purchase of arms from many countries and France assisted India in this regard wholeheartedly. The initial deals struck with France may not be big in terms of numbers but there was a change of attitude which lay the foundations for a strategic partnership. The deals between 1962 to 1968 averaged about US$ 15 million annually and it was a decade in which defence relations strengthened between India and France. It is pertinent to note that both the United States and the United Kingdom kept their arms deals closely linked to their foreign policies whereas France had a more neutral stance in the field of weapon deliveries to India. The US had promised to deliver Phantom fighters before the Chinese War but the same were not executed, instead combat clothing and logistic equipment was supplied during the war. Further Pakistan kept receiving military equipment despite protests from India and by 1964 the US military aid to India came to a complete halt. French supplies during this decade amounted to three Alize aircraft, 50 AS-30 Air to Surface missiles, 2000 ENTAC and 4000 SS-11 Anti-tank missiles. Other equipment included 270 light helicopters and 500 Hothicks 120 mm AM 50 mortars which were delivered in the 1970s.

France is also assisting our Research and Development agencies to enable transfer of technology with regard to missiles by arranging possible tie-up with European missile consortium MBDA During the war with Pakistan

Maj Gen PK Chakravorty VSM (retd)

in 1965, France in consonance with the US applied an arms embargo against both sides. However, it’s interesting to note that it kept supplying India French spare parts and lifted the embargo in March 1966. While US and UK tightened sanctions against India France became a reliable weapon supplier.

India is procuring 126 Rafale Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) from Dassault Aviation which would be worth US$ 15 billion. The Commercial Negotiating Committee is in progress and is leaving no stone unturned to complete the process expeditiously This period also witnessed the entry of the Soviet Union as the principal arms supplier to India. While the US refused to supply the Phantom aircraft to India the Soviets supplied the MiG-21 fighters. India purchased US$ 470 million dollars of arms from the Soviet Union annually from 1962 to 1971. The highest was US$ 940 million in 1969 and even today Russia is India’s biggest arms provider. Thus during this period the Soviet Union and France were trustworthy arms suppliers of India.

Relations post war for liberation of Bangladesh-1971 The liberation of Bangladesh made India realise that it was the most powerful nation in South Asia. Further US and UK were not able to comprehend the situation and stopped weapon deliveries which lasted till 1986. The Soviet Union became India’s major arms supplier with deliveries of US$ 1.1 billion in 1972 and going up to US$ 1.4 billion in 1979. During this period French exports were about US$ 20 million annually. India gradually realised there was a need to enlarge India’s procurement market. Further US chose to help Pakistan to raise

the mujahideen to fight the Soviet troops in Afghanistan during 1979. They provided all weapons and aircraft to win over Pakistan. As India was looking for superior technology they looked towards the West particularly France and UK. India acquired the Franco British Jaguar Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft in 1979. This was followed by procurement of 1000 R-550 Magic-1, short range air to air missile to equip fighter aircraft and 40 PA-6 diesel engines for Offshore Patrol Vessels of the Indian Navy. The Indian Army placed an extensive order for second generation MILAN Anti-tank Guided Missiles which commenced in 1981 and were delivered consistently till 2002. The US decided to supply the state-of-the-art F-16 jet fighters with Sidewinder missiles to Pakistan to improve its offensive air capabilities. The Indian Air Force needed a suitable match for this versatile jet fighter. The French Mirage 2000 was considered appropriate and the contract was signed for 40 aircraft in 1982. This was a gigantic step in boosting defence ties. A Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the two countries followed by the establishment of an armaments committee and an Indo-French Defence Cooperation Working Group which concentrated on sale of arms rather than on broader security issues affecting the two countries. Throughout the cold war France remained India’s principal arms supplier after the Soviet Union. The break-up of the Soviet Union saw India emerge as a major player in Asia with a liberalised economy and an open approach to issues pertaining to security. France was observing India’s liberalisation and felt the need for strategic cooperation between the two countries. India conducted its two nuclear tests in 1998 and like the United States, France too imposed sanctions. However, France was able

The writer is an alumnus of National Defence Academy who was comissioned into the Regiment of Artillery on 31 March 1972. A Silver Gunner who has undergone the Long Gunnery Staff Course, Staff College and is a graduate of the National Defence College. He has commanded a Medium Regiment and a Composite Artillery Brigade. He was Major General Artillery of an operational Command, Commandant of Selection Centre South in Bangalore and Additional Director General Artillery at Army Headquarters. He has also served as the Defence Attache to Vietnam and is a prolific writer on strategic subjects. He is the consulting editor for Brahmand 2012 and is compiling a monograph for CLAWS, Firepower-2030.

The Chinese War of 1962 was a major turning point for India’s defence policy. The military defeat in 1962 compelled India to modernise her armed forces deals between 1962 to 1968 averaged about US$ 15 million annually and it was a decade in which defence relations strengthened between India and France

While US and UK tightened sanctions against India France became a reliable weapon supplier

Soviet Union and France were trustworthy arms suppliers of India

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

PRAGMATIC EVALUATION

to comprehend India’s requirement and accordingly commenced a four pillar defence cooperation. These were high level visits between representatives of each country, joint training and exercises, research and development programmes and arms procurement.

Strategic cooperation President Jacques Chirac of France clearly comprehended India’s capabilities and accepted the invitation of Chief Guest at the Republic Day Parade on 26 January 1998. He laid the foundation for higher defence cooperation between the two countries. The high level visits resulted in understanding of the defence policies of both countries and the tasks of the armed forces. On 20 February 2006, President Chirac again visited India and signed an Agreement on Defence Cooperation. The Agreement led to a strategic dialogue which takes place twice a year to address global issues. Further a High Committee on Defence Cooperation was established. The meetings are held annually chaired by the representatives of both countries. This committee is divided into two sub-committees, one for military cooperation and the other for defence equipment. It is pertinent to note that both countries have also established an Indo-French Joint Working Group on International Terrorism. The group meets twice a year and exchanges inputs to improve the capability to deal with terrorism. Joint exercises have been conducted between the two countries since 1998. Geographical separation makes army exercises difficult but number of exercises has been held between the two navies and the air forces. It is of interest to note that France was the first country to conduct a naval exercise after the nuclear tests by India in 1998. The Varuna series of joint naval exercises commenced in 2001. Since 2002 the French nuclear powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle regularly participates in these exercises. These exercises have benefited both navies and improved their interoperability. Air exercises between the two air forces are periodically being conducted. The first exercise

Garuda I was held in February 2003, in Gwalior (India). During this exercise the Indian Air Force was exposed to French mid-air refuelling for the first time. Garuda II was held in Southern France at the Air Force Station 125. The duration of the exercise was 15 days and the issues practised included Beyond Visual Range (BVR) combat and Inflight Refuelling (IFR). The French side comprised of five Mirage 2000 fighters, one Boeing KC-135 Flight Refueller and one E-3F AWACs aircraft. The Indian Air Force team comprised six Sukhoi-30, one Il-78 Flight Refueller and two Il-76 transport aircraft. Both the air forces benefited tremendously from these exercises.

Our country did not wish Great Britain to be our sole arms supplier and at the same time while receiving French military equipment was critical of French colonial policy. It was only after French withdrawal from Indo-China and Algeria that relations between the two countries improved France has been assisting our DRDO and Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs). The greatest assistance has been provided in the aviation sector. French company Snecma is assisting Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) on the aero engines for the Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) and is assisting DRDO in the production of Kaveri engines for the Light Combat Aircraft (Tejas). Turbomecca is also cooperating with HAL to develop Shakti engines for the twin engine Dhruv ALH. Further GIAT is cooperating with Combat Vehicles Research Development Establishment (CVRDE) of DRDO to redesign the turret for Main Battle Tank Arjun Mark-II. France is also assisting our Research and Development agencies to enable transfer of technology with regard to missiles by arranging possible tie-up with European missile consortium MBDA. Post 1998 France is in the process of lapping up major arms deals with India. The upgrades would include new RDY-3 radar, a new night vision compatible Scorpène submarine deal valued at US$ 3 billion was signed in October 2005 with a subsidiary of the Thales group and DCN.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) will assemble six submarines as per a technology transfer agreement. These submarines will be armed with 36 MBDA SM 39 Exocet anti-ship missiles and Black Shark torpedoes. Apart from this 49 Mirage 2000 are being upgraded at a cost of US$ 3 billion digital cockpit improved electronic warfare systems and MBDA Mica family of medium range missiles. Apart from this India is procuring 126 Rafale Medium Multi Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) from Dassault Aviation which would be worth US$ 15 billion. The Commercial Negotiating Committee is in progress and is leaving no stone unturned to complete the process expeditiously. This deal is extremely important for the Indian Air Force as it would place it in a higher league with these state-of-the-art aircraft.

Way ahead India and France are strategically involved in intense defence cooperation. Apart from business of arms, France considers India as a strong regional power in South Asia. France possesses a dozen islands in the Indian Ocean which are extremely difficult to guard due to the vast geographic separation. To suitably secure these France would need India’s assistance to secure these territories. Further India finds France technologically matching US standards, thereby enabling modernisation of India’s armed forces. There are two contentious issues with regard to defence cooperation between France and India. France’s supply of defence equipment to Pakistan and China is disliked by India. France has to play to Indian sensitivities on the subject to improve defence relations with India. Defence cooperation between France and India has progressed due to pragmatic path followed by both the countries. The French President François Hollande's visit to India in February 2013 was low on hype but high on substance. With luck in our favour the future would witness enhanced defence cooperation between the two countries.

neighbourhood watch

NUCLEAR CONUNDRUM

The India-Pakistan Nuclear Stand-off

here are three levels of deterrence in South Asia – nuclear, conventional, and unconventional – and neither India nor Pakistan can claim to have achieved security at all three levels. The situation is further complicated for Pakistan by the Indian decision to put a missile shield around Mumbai and New Delhi. Pakistan suffers from a lack of conventional deterrence against India. Despite infusions of military assistance from the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has lost the conventional arms race to India. It is for this reason that Pakistan has built tactical nuclear weapons. Given the ambiguity underlying Pakistan’s use of nuclear weapons it is quite difficult to paint a picture of conventional war that does not escalate into a nuclear one. Indian military officials have talked in terms of a Cold Start doctrine but external observers, notably Timothy Roemer, the then American ambassador to India, have raised doubts about whether India had the military capability or the political will to carry out such an operation. An excellent article, though we do not necessarily agree with the writer’s conclusions that India’s only option is economic development to make other countries pressurise Pakistan not to wage asymmetric war against India. That is a forlorn hope that has not worked so far.

o understand the India-Pakistan nuclear stand-off and its implications for conventional conflict one has to move beyond the facile calculations that are made by strategists on both sides of the border and instead focus on the entire spectrum of conflict that is likely to emerge between the two countries. What this article argues is that the nuclear stand-off will push Pakistan to continue using unconventional means to wage conflict against India and nuclear deterrence will only help it to maintain a range of options against New Delhi.

Three levels of deterrence in South Asia There are three levels of deterrence in South Asia – nuclear, conventionaland unconventional – and neither India nor Pakistan can claim to have achieved security at all three levels. Both countries have achieved nuclear deterrence and the costs of a nuclear war for either side would be horrendous.

A look at Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine makes it clear that not only will Islamabad fire its nuclear weapons first, but it will have to fire them all in one salvo. Pakistan cannot afford the luxury of firing some missiles to deter say an Indian conventional attack and then to enter into negotiations to deescalate the conflict. For that to happen, Pakistan (and even India) would require an advanced C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) that neither country possesses A look at Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine makes it clear that not only will Islamabad fire its nuclear weapons first, but it will have to fire them all in one salvo. Pakistan cannot afford the luxury of firing some missiles to deter say an Indian conventional attack and then to enter into negotiations to deescalate the conflict. For that to happen, Pakistan (and even India) would require an advanced C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications,

Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) that neither country possesses. In the case of Pakistan, the emphasis of the United States and the West has been on guaranteeing the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and not making them into more deployable and more efficiently usable weapons systems. The United States, therefore, has spent over US$ 100 million to help Pakistan safeguard its weapons from Jihadi attacks but it has not given Pakistan the surveillance, reconnaissance and electronic capabilities to successfully wage a limited nuclear war.1 Nor has the United States given Pakistan the ability to deploy its weapons in forward positions and make them readily usable for tactical purposes. Thus, for Islamabad, the option becomes use your entire force and cause maximum destruction or use a few weapons and then face an Indian retaliatory barrage that cripples Pakistan’s conventional and nuclear capabilities. A use it or lose it first

1. See, David Sanger and William J Broad, US secretly aids Pakistan in guarding nuclear weapons, The New York Times, November 18, 2007, Available at, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/18/washington/18nuke.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 Also see, Paul K Kerr and Mary Beth Nikitin, Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Proliferation and Security Issues, Congressional Research Service Report RL 34248, March 19, 2013, pp. 20-21.

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Amit Gupta The writer is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Security Studies at the USAF Air War College, Montgomery, Alabama, USA. The views in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the USAF or the Department of Defence.

strike then becomes Pakistan’s best and only alternative.

reached a point where thousands of warheads were aimed at each other.

The Indian Air Force, for example, would be able to maintain air superiority over Indian skies and thus ward off a Pakistani counter air offensive

A more reasonable analysis comes, instead, from the writings of Chairman Mao Zedong on the subject – one which China has not deviated substantially from in the development of its nuclear force structure and strategy. Mao’s China recognised that Beijing could not get into an expensive nuclear arms race with the West or for that matter the Soviet Union. What the country required was to have the guaranteed capability to take out a few cities in an opponent’s territory and this would be enough to deter the other side. Thus a minimum deterrent capability that took out 6-10 cities was seen as ensuring deterrence.

The situation is further complicated for Pakistan by the Indian decision to put a missile shield around Mumbai and New Delhi – both cities being prime targets for a Pakistani nuclear strike. American estimates suggest that missile shields have a 40-70 per cent success rate thus contradicting the Israeli claim that their Iron Dome shield worked at a 90 per cent efficiency rate. While such a shield may not offer an impregnable defence it does complicate the Pakistani task of attacking India and, therefore, raise the need to use all of Islamabad’s weapons in one salvo – or, as noted below, create the need to use unconventional means to deliver such systems. India, similarly, given its second use policy cannot afford to launch say three or four nuclear weapons and then sit back and let the international community negotiate a ceasefire. There would be no guarantee that Pakistan did not have a few weapons left over to launch a second attack. Yet the nuclear calculus in South Asia makes little sense given the impact any kind of nuclear attack would have on a society. Indians and Pakistanis have fallen into the trap of basing their nuclear assumptions on those of the nations of the West that saw the prospects of thousands of nuclear warheads being launched in a war. In fact, the targeting of both super powers during the cold war had

In the South Asian case, the numbers are even smaller. An Indian attack that decimated Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi would essentially leave Pakistan with an economy and society that is in the 19th century. A similar Pakistani attack on Mumbai or New Delhi would put back India’s developmental efforts by a couple of decades as not only would the nation struggle to recover but foreign investors would flee the country. One may argue, therefore, that nuclear deterrence has been achieved by both sides and neither has to worry about feeling vulnerable in this spectrum of conflict. The same cannot be said, however, for conventional or unconventional deterrence.

Pakistan has unconventional deterrence against India because while the ISI is able to actively support Jihadi activity in India, New Delhi has not been able to effectively respond in kind. Pakistan, over the past decade, has been able to both be an American partner in the global war on terror as well as the hub for regional and global terrorist activity

Strategically, if the countries of Asia see India, as they currently do China, as the goose that lays the economic golden egg then they would work to pressure Pakistan against carrying out unconventional warfare against India. Such a policy, however, would require a forward thinking leadership in New Delhi

Conventional deterrence Pakistan suffers from a lack of conventional deterrence against India. Despite infusions

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neighbourhood watch

NUCLEAR CONUNDRUM

of military assistance from the United States, China and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has lost the conventional arms race to India as the Indian armed services are getting a far more effective conventional combat capability. The Indian Air Force, for example, would be able to maintain air superiority over Indian skies and thus ward off a Pakistani counter air offensive. The Indian Navy, with the inclusion of new aircraft carriers and a nuclear attack submarine force, becomes a very difficult proposition for the Pakistani Navy to counter. In fact, there is some discussion that in the event of a war the Indian Navy would be able to successfully block the flow of oil to Pakistan thus damaging its war effort. And, the Indian Army’s overall strength makes it likely that it would eventually prevail over the Pakistani Army in a drawn out conflict. It is for this reason that Pakistan has built tactical nuclear weapons and they present a real security challenge to Pakistan as well as lower the nuclear threshold in South Asia.

India, similarly, given its second use policy cannot afford to launch say three or four nuclear weapons and then sit back and let the international community negotiate a ceasefire. There would be no guarantee that Pakistan did not have a few weapons left over to launch a second attack. Yet the nuclear calculus in South Asia makes little sense given the impact any kind of nuclear attack would have on a society Pakistan’s current nuclear doctrine is fairly ambiguous about the circumstances under which its nuclear forces would be used. A 2007 report by the Italian scientists group, the Landau Network, stated: “Gen Aslam Beg in the FRIENDS meeting made some reference to keeping (in the future) the total number of devices between 75 and 90 just to readdress the conventional balance vis a vis India, that possesses an army three times as big as Pakistan, an air force five times as big as Pakistan and a navy six times as big as Pakistan. The bombs have been declared by

Gen Musharraf to be in a “disassembled state”, meaning probably that the fission core is kept separately from the non-nuclear (ignition) components. Nevertheless, according to Gen Kidwai of SPD, the bombs can be assembled “very quickly”. The same Gen Kidwai stated that Pakistan has “ground and air capability for the delivery of nuclear weapons”. This apparently means that bombs / warheads can be delivered by airplanes and / or missiles. Gen Kidwai said explicitly that nuclear artillery is not part, at the moment, of the Pakistani nuclear programme.”2

The Indian Navy, with the inclusion of new aircraft carriers and a nuclear attack submarine force, becomes a very difficult proposition for the Pakistani Navy to counter. In fact, there is some discussion that in the event of a war the Indian Navy would be able to successfully block the flow of oil to Pakistan thus damaging its war effort What is crucial to understand from the above statement is that the Pakistani military leadership believes that the security of their nuclear weapons is guaranteed by keeping them disassembled and that they will be used to try and stop a conventional Indian military attack. The use of tactical nuclear weapons, however, makes it difficult to maintain secure command and control over such systems. For tactical missiles to serve as a deterrent they have to be handed down to field commanders, kept close to the area of battle and be readily operational. This then leads to the distinct possibility that these weapons could be captured by Jihadi groups or even launched by rogue commanders. There also remains the possibility that faced by an Indian onslaught, a commander who was afraid of being overrun would use his nuclear weapons and precipitate a broader nuclear conflict rather than lose them to the invading force. At the very least, it weakens Pakistan’s three man authorisation of the use of nuclear weapons since these systems would now be in the hands of multiple commanders. Further

complicating

the

conventional scenario is the stated Pakistani intent on when nuclear weapons would be used by the military leaders in Rawalpindi. Again, in interviews given to the Landau Network, Pakistani decision makers stated: “Nuclear weapons are aimed solely at India. In case that deterrence fails, they will be used if India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory (space threshold) India destroys a large part either of its land or air forces (military threshold) India proceeds to the economic strangling of Pakistan (economic blockade) India pushes Pakistan into political destabilisation or creates a large scale internal subversion in Pakistan (domestic destabilisation).”3 These four thresholds for nuclear retaliation retain a high level of ambiguity and complicate the conduct of any conventional action against Pakistan. How, for instance, is a large part of Pakistani territory defined in terms of the space threshold? After all, Lahore is 25 kilometers from the Indian border. What Pakistan can tolerate along the Line of Control in Kashmir is quite different from what it would accept, therefore, in the plains of the West Punjab which is its cultural and economic heartland. Thus, an incursion of even a few kilometers in West Punjab might be considered a loss of a large part of its territory. Similarly, what exactly is meant by the economic strangling of Pakistan? Would it be triggered by a diversion of river waters, for example, or would it be something more militarily hostile like a naval blockade? Or could it even be India exerting diplomatic pressure for universal economic sanctions against Pakistan that trigger such a response? Then there is the question of political destabilisation and internal subversion. What exactly does political destabilisation mean?

2. See, Nuclear safety, nuclear stability and nuclear strategy in Pakistan, A concise report of a visit by Landau Network - Centro Volta, available at, y/pakistan%20Januray%202002.pdf 3. Ibid.

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There is no credible way to measure what a threshold would be in such circumstances. Moreover, Pakistan accuses India of fomenting the insurgency in Baluchistan and the question here becomes at what stage would Islamabad seek nuclear retaliation against such perceived attempts by India. While Prime Minister Singh has denied any involvement in the Baluch insurgency and India had no compunctions about signing the Sharm-al-Sheikh declaration, this does not mean that Pakistan would not retaliate against India if things started to go seriously wrong in Baluchistan.

The Indian Army’s overall strength makes it likely that it would eventually prevail over the Pakistani Army in a drawn out conflict Given the ambiguity underlying Pakistan’s use of nuclear weapons it is quite difficult to paint a picture of conventional war that does not escalate into a nuclear one. Indian military officials have talked in terms of a Cold Start doctrine but external observers, notably Timothy Roemer, the then American ambassador to India, have raised doubts about whether India had the military capability or the political will to carry out such an operation. The key issue, however, is not Indian capability but rather the Pakistani response and that, most likely, will be to try and not have a protracted conventional conflict with India. A drawn out conventional conflict would potentially have adverse outcomes for Islamabad: a possible collapse of its conventional forces and India seizing significant portions of territory; or, much worse, the economic collapse of Pakistan. The latter is perhaps a far more serious problem since Pakistan is headed towards a difficult period in its relationship with the West after the United States and NATO pull out of Afghanistan in 2014.

Unconventional deterrence Pakistan has unconventional deterrence against India because while the ISI is able to actively support Jihadi activity in India, New Delhi has not been able to effectively respond in kind. Pakistan, over the past decade, has been able to both be an American partner in the global war on terror

as well as the hub for regional and global terrorist activity. From an Indian perspective, the blowing up of the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the November 2008 Mumbai attacks demonstrated that the ISI could get away with committing acts of terror against India with little chance of a retaliation from the Indian government or for that matter the international community. Given that an Indian missile shield would limit the effectiveness of a Pakistani first salvo there has to be some thinking in Pakistan of using unconventional means – like the fishing boat delivered commando force – to hit an Indian city with nuclear weapons. Such an attack would also make sense because, despite the claims of Indian security forces, the country has not made significant strides in enhancing its anti-terrorism capabilities.

Nuclear weapons conventional war

and

If India does not have unconventional deterrence against Pakistan and Islamabad’s threshold for launching a nuclear strike is quite low, can New Delhi successfully carry out a conventional war against Pakistan? The answer is No. Pakistan will tolerate border skirmishes but a full-fledged conventional war would require the generals in Rawalpindi to start thinking in terms of exercising the nuclear option. And, given the crudity of Pakistan’s C4ISR, one has to expect an all out launch. There is one more issue that needs to be understood in this context. India has a lot to lose from a war while Pakistan will lose very little. India seeks to become a major economy in the international system and the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has forecast that it will be the third largest economy in the world by the 2020s. This economic growth is only possible, however, if India is able to reassure foreign investors that it is indeed a good place to invest in. The occasional terror attack will not deter investors but the potential for a nuclear war will. Pakistan on the other hand has little to lose. Its economy is stuck in the 1950s in terms of its manufacturing

capabilities and its government has been able to survive largely due to the fact that it has received multiple economic bailouts from the West. The latter may not happen anymore because after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 most commentators expect a reset in US-Pakistan relations. In this case Washington will not tolerate the latitude Pakistan had in its Afghan policy during the War on Terror. Nor will the United States continue to give the type of military and economic assistance that it has over the past decade. Instead, there will be the desire to stop rewarding a country that is known to be a “frenemy.” Pakistan may well end up in the same position that it was in the late 1970s and the mid-1990s – a pariah in the international system – and, consequently, have little to lose in initiating a devastating war with India. Since conventional war threatens to rapidly escalate and India lacks unconventional deterrence what can New Delhi do to place greater constraints on Islamabad? The answer lies in becoming a more dynamic economy that becomes an attractive place for international investors. In the last decade, despite the foot dragging and incompetence of the Indian government and its Victorian era bureaucracy, more and more countries have shown a desire to invest in India. The countries of the Gulf as well as the nations of South East Asia have all made it clear that they see India as a favourable destination for their investments. In contrast, people doing business with Pakistan seek to hold their meetings in Dubai for safety reasons. If India were to allow such investments to freely flow into the country both an economic and strategic agenda would be achieved. Economically, the country would develop at the high growth rates that business analysts believe it can. Strategically, if the countries of Asia see India, as they currently do China, as the goose that lays the economic golden egg then they would work to pressure Pakistan against carrying out unconventional warfare against India. Such a policy, however, would require a forward thinking leadership in New Delhi.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

internal security

PERMEABLE THREAT

Battle Space is Cyber

he Internet abridges natural gaps, bringing intelligence, information and reasoning and this ability is what permits humans to process information and formulate explanations and further assists us to ascribe meanings to observed phenomena. But what happens when the phenomenon being observed has been manipulated, indoctrinated and is of an insidious nature? Internet World Statistics show as of June 30th 2012 that India has 137,000,000 Internet users, an 11.4 per cent penetration per IAMIA (Internet and Mobile Association of India) and 62,713,680 Facebook subscribers as of December 31st 2012, a 5.2 per cent penetration rate. The pipe bombs allegedly thrown from a car by Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev resembled the design described in “How to Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” an article in the first issue of the AQAP English-language magazine, Inspire.

he Internet turned 20 this year, this technology has reshaped and reorganised the way humans think, connect and communicate. It manipulates the environment to meet human needs. The rapid evolution of the Internet has made it an indispensible tool nestling itself deep, in the core of our daily lives. It has made societies solvent and given communication a permeable path. With increased communication comes the exchange of ideas, acculturation, advancement and development be it towards a positive or negative direction. It is a place to congregate without borders!

The landscape of modern combat is also being reshaped by Cyberspace. Destruction now can bypass the military force and attack via “cyber-brute-force” suppressing a country’s military control systems, navigation, communication system, shutting down or paralysing critical infrastructure and affecting the country’s economy, cyber-weapons linking nuclear weapons Internet World Statistics show as of June 30th 2012 that India has 137,000,000 Internet users, an 11.4 per cent penetration per IAMIA (Internet and Mobile Association of Indian), and 62,713,680 Facebook subscribers as of December 31st 2012, a 5.2 per cent penetration rate (http://www.internetworldstats. com/top20.htm)

In the list of online infection risk India ranks 9th and in personal computer across the globe, India ranks 7th (https://www.securelist. com/en/analysis/204792255/ Kaspersky_Security_Bulletin_2012_ The_overall_statistics_for_2012#8)

technology/cern-to-recreate-world’sfirst-web-page-as-web-turns-20years-old)

The web can promote and support acts of terrorism by means of propaganda, promotion, instructional dissemination and execution, financing, training, recruiting and can also facilitate specific attacks. The Internet can be a dangerous and diverse tool at the hands of madmen. Combating the dark forces of Terrorism is a complex obstacle that brings a deluge of challenges.

A recent survey by McAfee named India next to Brazil, Romania and Mexico the least able to defend against cyber attacks.

The writer is an Intelligence and Terrorism Analyst, Clinical Psychologist and Clinical Hypnotherapist based in South-East Asia. She has also received training in specialised areas including counter-terrorism, intelligence and tactical operations. She specialises in cognitive learning processes and neural pathway response and how these factors apply to specialised trainings. She is an expert in the field of non-verbal micro and macro expression for deception and detection and also using non-verbal assets for psychological self-assessment in conjunction with Emotional Intelligence to enhance the human mind, personality, image and spirit.

Cyber espionage is a preferred weapon of foreign entities bent on disruption and outright theft.

CERN, The European Organisation for Nuclear Research published a statement in April 1993 that made the World Wide Web technology available on a royalty-free basis. (cds.cern.ch/record/1164399)

In a July 2012 article for DSA titled “Insurgency and collective consciousness “ I wrote on “on ground coherence and collective consciousness” where I state – “… a disturbance in the human behaviour is seen, when this behaviour receives collective affective resonance, a collective consciousness is formed and the motivation to take action develops. Increasing evolution brings increasing complexities in human mechanism, which is correlated with increasing interior consciousness and gross external factors.

“There is no sector of society that has not been transformed by the invention, in a physics laboratory, of the Web,” Rolf Heuer, CERN director-general, said in a statement. “From research to business and education, the Web has been reshaping the way we communicate, work, innovate and live. The Web is a powerful example of the way that basic research benefits humankind.” (http://news.msn.com/science-

Affective resonance is considered to be the original basis for all human communication. This resonance forms collective consciousness which signifies “Joint or mutual knowledge,” “Internal knowledge or conviction. Thus an autonomous individual comes to identify with a larger group / structure and as such, patterns of commonality amongst individuals bring legible unity to those structures. In simple terms when a common theme binds a group, collective

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Dr Rupali Jeswal

consciousness is experienced and this can be seen in any groups of like-minded people. The four dimensions of cohesion Commitment Communication Cooperation Command” (Homeland security / HOLISTIC ANALYSIS Insurgencies and Collective Consciousness).

The Internet creates an arena of virtual marketplace and this poses an international threat, e-jihadist supply and meets the demands with a focus on violent Jihad. The experienced meet the sympathisers, the aspirants and the wannabes. Ideologist, explosive experts, handlers and actioners – all have the space and speed to connect, communicate and disseminate Now the same can be applied for cyberspace, a theatre for “online collectivism” aptly termed by computer scientist and digital visionary Jaron Lanier in his essay “Digital Maoism”. A philosophy of collective consciousness fuelled by this

massive amount of information is reshaping the future of humanism.

A recent survey by McAfee named India next to Brazil, Romania and Mexico the least able to defend against cyber attacks

She is a member of ICPA (International Corrections and Prisons Association), IACSP (International Association for Counter-Terrorism and Security Professionals), APA (American Psychological Association), APP (Association of Professional Psychologists), FPRI (Foreign Policy Research Institute) and UK Certified Hypnotherapist and General Hypnotherapy Register.

We will see the growth of cyber espionage and targets are not limited to infrastructure systems within a country but may be any or all organisations, large or small, that hold data which is potentially valuable to cybercriminals and can be used as stepping-stones to reach other companies. “Premeditated minds like parachutes, work best when open.” The Internet abridges natural gaps, bringing intelligence, information and reasoning and this ability is what permits humans to process information and formulate explanations and further assists us to ascribe meanings to observed phenomena. But what happens when the phenomenon being observed has been manipulated, indoctrinated and is of an insidious nature? Onwards with cyber espionage, hackers and crackers, intruders, e-Jihad, cybercrime,

Damien Martin The co-writer is an IT and Security professional, Counterterrorism and Combatives expert based in Japan for the last 10 years. He specialises in cyber threats, social engineering and corporate security and a regular keynote presenter for ASIS and OSAC. Currently he is the Director for the IACSP Japan and an Associate Professional with the OPSEC Society and a Certified Master Anti-terrorismSpecialist.Heistheonly PDR (Personal Defence Readiness – Tony Blauer’s SPEAR system) coach in North East Asia.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

internal security

PERMEABLE THREAT

economic warfare, with development of telecommunications, electronics and computer software’s managing infrastructure and social systems – evolution of society to being in jeopardy by potential malicious software. The world is running on microchips, where a surge of an EMP can disrupt and shut down a country, collapsing all systems ripping the workings of modern society. The Internet creates an arena of virtual marketplace and this poses an international threat, e-jihadist supply and meets the demands with a focus on violent Jihad. The experienced meet the sympathisers, the aspirants and the wannabes. Ideologist, explosive experts, handlers and actioners – all have the space and speed to connect, communicate and disseminate. As global counterterrorism efforts have led to greater cyber security awareness it has also led to the jihadist’s efforts in promoting safe online behaviour and increased use of ciphertext guarding the content of their communication in cyberspace.

The major concern when dealing with Cyber threats is ubiquity and anonymity. What other international medium is highly accessible, far-reaching, ridiculously inexpensive, whereby information is transferred at the speed of light, the attacker invisible and untraceable? Unlike a missile trajectory, IP (Internet Protocol) pathways can be masked and the locations appear opaque. Implicating a source and assigning blame to the attack progenitor is extremely difficult The case of the Boston bombing: The unclassified report from the Terrorist Explosive Device Analytical Center found that the pipe bombs allegedly thrown from a car by Dzhokhar and Tamerlan Tsarnaev resembled the design described in “How to Make a Bomb in the Kitchen of Your Mom,” an article in the first issue of the AQAP English-language magazine, Inspire. At least one of the Watertown bombs used an elbow pipe wrapped in black tape, as discussed in Inspire. http://openchannel.nbcnews. com/_news/2013/04/26/17932143exclusive-government-doc-showshow-closely-boston-marathon-

bombers-followed-Al-Qaeda-plans? http://www.breitbart.com/ Big-Peace/2013/04/26/ReportSuspected-Bombers-Followed-AlQaeda-Bomb-Designs http://photoblog.nbcnews. com/_news/2013/04/17/17793425anatomy-of-a-bombing-photosshow-battery-wires-used-indevice?lite Details have emerged that the surviving Boston bomber told investigators he and his brother learned how to build explosives by reading the online publication. In the Lone Mujahid Pocketbook there are clear instructions on pressure cooker bombs and use of spherical bb shrapnels. Internet’s capabilities dictate the rules of engagement in cyberspace to initiate on-ground battles and at the same time create a fertile ground for new, aspiring jihadist. The landscape of modern combat is also being reshaped by Cyberspace. Destruction now can bypass the military force and attack via “cyber-brute-force” suppressing a country’s military control systems, navigation, communication system, shutting down or paralysing critical infrastructure and affecting the country’s economy, cyber-weapons linking nuclear weapons. “The cyber domain in some ways is like the air domain, in being a realm that had no relevance for military planning until all of a sudden a new technology offered access to it.” (Statement of General Keith B Alexander, Commander, United States Cyber Command, House of Committee on armed services, 23rd September 2010). To understand the hostile capabilities of cyber-initiated wars is like reading a paper before a lamp. With all cyber attacks it is necessary we understand the ingredients needed, they are; Actors, Instruments and Victims. This recipe for electronic disaster impacts all nations alike. The major concern when dealing with Cyber threats is ubiquity and anonymity. What other international medium is highly accessible,

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

far-reaching, ridiculously inexpensive, whereby information is transferred at the speed of light, the attacker invisible and untraceable? Unlike a missile trajectory, IP (Internet Protocol) pathways can be masked and the locations appear opaque. Implicating a source and assigning blame to the attack progenitor is extremely difficult. Conversely, fundamental design flaws in web infrastructure allow a far-reaching cumulative effect created from basic tasks and instigated by hackers. Cyber threats give the sweet taste of freedom and information availability an acerbic coating. The web can promote and support acts of terrorism by means of propaganda, promotion, instructional dissemination and execution, financing, training, recruiting and can also facilitate specific attacks. The Internet can be a dangerous and diverse tool at the hands of madmen. Combating the dark forces of Terrorism is a complex obstacle that brings a deluge of challenges. Defining how we deal with Cyber threats and attacks internationally is crucial to peace and security. If Cyber weapons are treated with indifference in comparison to other weapons then it can open the doors to multifaceted retaliation if a nation is provoked. If China initiates an offensive cyber attack on the US would a missile strike in defence be in the scope of theatre? Is there a playbook that specifies a coaction? { If A

// a cyber to Entity

attack by Entity B is received

Then attack

// with

Entity cyber

B will retaliation

Else attack }

// via

Entity B will ballistic means.

Does a US power grid deleteriously taken offline, warrant a similar attack in response, or is it excessive to retaliate with ballistic force? The Tallinn manual answers these questions and is at the forefront of International Law in regards to Cyber security. We saw with the 9/11 attacks that

the US military was not directly attacked nor were prefabricated explosive devices used. Instead public service vehicles (aircraft) were commissioned to ambush public service buildings like the New York World Trade Center Twin Towers. Planes carrying innocent passengers deliberately redirected off course to create one of the worst terrorist attacks in history. Although the Pentagon was targeted, it was only part of the overall scheme. Military installations were not part of that plan. This method of fear campaigning just like Cyber Terrorism changes the consciousness of war. It is almost like reverse-asymmetric warfare and utilises one of the Thirty-Six Stratagems from the Book of Qi – “Kill with a borrowed Knife”. Utilising the enemy`s equipment to attack the enemy on their territory. Minimum cost to implement, maximum psychological impact reinforcing that pernicious virus – Terrorism.

Is the Internet a “necessary evil”? Furthermore the capillary action in this process is not unlike the demand for information that forges our lives. Just as plants regulate the rate of transpiration by the degree of stomatal openings, so must governments contemplate how best to regulate the flow of information for the safety of its citizens Understanding probability and possibility of a cyber onslaught is part of the risk assessment process. What is the likelihood and what are the consequences of a major city infrastructure cyber incursion? Calculating the possibilities and probabilities at any given moment can be time consuming and costly for both sides. Collating data on natural disasters could be one approach in ascertaining the fallout. That fallout would be the socio-economic impact of natural disasters and would lay the footings for an attack test bed. Observing the combined impact of the 2011 Japan disasters (Earthquake, North Eastern Tsunami and the Fukushima Nuclear Plant explosions) is one possible way to simulate the consequence of an attack. This information, OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) is easily obtainable online. The amount of public data available on Chernobyl,

Three Mile Island and Fukushima is more than sufficient for any malicious group to plan an operation. If we use critical thinking to observe the possibilities and probabilities of how Maoists for example could jeopardise security via cyber initiatives, then an offensive strategy can be put in place proactively. Naxals as we have seen, are not just rural groups preying on villages. They are more than likely using the full extent of the Internet to harness the will of others, influencing, incorporating and building support. The World Wide Web is reminiscent of a transpiration lecture in a biology class at school. The transpiration process is the transfer of water from plants, to the atmosphere. Transpiration is needed for a plant to survive but can also kill it and is commonly known as a “necessary evil”. Is the Internet a “necessary evil”? Furthermore the capillary action in this process is not unlike the demand for information that forges our lives. Just as plants regulate the rate of transpiration by the degree of stomatal openings, so must governments contemplate how best to regulate the flow of information for the safety of its citizens. First and foremost terrorist concerns should be addressed before commercial and intellectual property rights. Every year in the United States several bills attempt to pass such as SOPA, PIPA, CISPA et al. Do any of these attempts of regulation address access to terrorist methodologies? How is it that content of a terrorist nature appears and is readily downloadable by any user? Current media web sharing propagates the advocacy of terrorism. The proliferation of young supporters to extremist views is increasing, influential minds absorbing via modern effective media streams. Enforcing the right policies to amalgamate security of governments and law-abiding citizens is critical. The safety of individuals outweighs commercial piracy. Sophism and intellectual rhetoric redirects focus on eliminating irrefutable threats like violence and terrorism. Instead, diluted versions of policies are implemented and lives are put at risk.

What is the evidence to support concern? As of 2009 the US established Cyber Command (USCYBERCOM). USCYBERCOM centralises command of cyberspace operations, organises existing cyber resources and synchronises defence of US military networks. It incorporates approximately 40 teams (13 offensive and 27 training and surveillance). In April 2012 The National Police Agency of Japan (NPA) launched a cyber offense wing in response to continuous attacks originating locally and abroad. With more and more countries developing cyber commands the international scene is slowly picking up the slack and turning the defensive to the offensive. India, much like the rest of the world, lacks the technologically savvy legal professionals to implement cohesive policies. There is light at the end of the tunnel however with the introduction of the Tallinn Manual (released in March 2013). This manual provides a comprehensive start on International Law applicable to Cyber Warfare. Upgrades – future of the Internet. To date there has been more concern with securing data than securing the underlying infrastructure. Now that the Internet is no longer a teenager we should expect a more mature outlook overall. As the WWW continues to implement IPv6 and DNS encryption there still continues to be areas unchecked. These loopholes are vulnerabilities constantly exploited by terrorists. Although we can expect significant change to the way we use the Internet, that change may take some time to come into effect globally. Lets hope authorities can stay ahead of the cyber counterterrorist curve and protect the most important asset – The people.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

COMPREHENSIVE COOPERATION

Indo-French Strategic Partnership: An Extant Review F

rance has made a conscious decision to build a comprehensive political and strategic cooperative relationship with India. Further quantitative transformation will hinge on future continued collaborations in defence, civil nuclear cooperation and bilateral trade and commerce. With convergence of strategic interests with India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, Indo-French defence cooperation would be mutually beneficial. It is notable that France was the first country to sign a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India after the Nuclear Suppliers Group agreed to lift sanctions on India's nuclear trade. For France, aerospace products, nuclear related equipment and electrical machinery and equipment constitute the largest items of exports to India, while India’s largest exports to France are petroleum products, clothing, boilers and organic chemicals. There is undoubtedly a considerable untapped potential for further growth in our bilateral trade, given the synergies present in the two economies.

he roots of Indo-French strategic relations date back to the early 1980s, when France began to recognise India’s strategic, diplomatic and economic emergence. This manifested in France supporting India’s demands in several strategic matters: Permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council, better participation in the decision-making process of international institutions (expanded G8, then G20) and access to civil nuclear cooperation. This rapprochement was made concrete by the launch of a strategic partnership in 1998, as well as by a strategic dialogue a year later, based on annual high-level meetings and consultations conducted semi-annually by the Diplomatic Advisor to the French President and India’s National Security Advisor. Since then the relations between the two nations remained upbeat though a bit low key and fresh impetus to Indo-French relations was provided by the first visit of President Nicolas Sarkozy in January 2008. The President was Chief Guest at the Republic Day Parade and was accompanied by a large delegation (over 250). The high level discussions focused on three main domains – strategic partnership, economic ties and student exchange and the two countries signed several major agreements in various sectors,

notably defence, space, nuclear and healthcare. Significantly during this visit India and France decided to set a target of € 12 billion for bilateral trade by 2012 which was reaffirmed during the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to France in September 2008 and during President Sarkozy’s second visit in December 2010. In Defence it was agreed that the Defence Cooperation was to go beyond the buyer-seller relationship, as hitherto. In the international geopolitical arena France supported India’s bid for a permanent membership of the UN Security Council and backed India’s entry into the G-8. It is notable that France was the first country to sign a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India after the Nuclear Suppliers Group agreed to lift sanctions on India’s nuclear trade during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to France in September 2008. The Agreement called, “Cooperation Agreement Between the Government of the Republic of India and the Government of the French Republic on the Development of Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy,” was signed by India’s Atomic Energy Commission Chairman Anil Kakodkar and the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner in the presence of India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and French

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

President Nicolas Sarkozy. The Agreement added a new dimension to Indo-French strategic partnership and opened the way for India to do business with France in nuclear reactors, nuclear fuel supply, nuclear safety, radiation and environment protection and nuclear fuel cycle management. The Agreement was contextualised in the global need to find non-polluting energy sources in order to combat climate change. The two countries also reaffirmed their common concerns and objectives in the field of non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery including a view of possible linkages to terrorism. As follow up, in December 2008 French company AREVA signed an agreement with the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) for supply of 300 tonnes of uranium to the nuclear plants of India which were running at 45 per cent of their capacity. The contract came as a follow-up of the nuclear cooperation agreement signed between India and France in September 2008. The September visit also saw the agreement on the use of outer space for peaceful purposes being signed, which extended and clarified the areas of cooperation, emphasising in particular the study of climate change using space-based facilities for Earth observation and the development of telecommunications

Cdr Sunil Chauhan (retd)

satellites for commercial purposes. This agreement made it possible to develop the Megha-Tropiques satellite, launched on 12 October 2011 and the SARAL satellite.

It is notable that France was the first country to sign a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with India after the Nuclear Suppliers Group agreed to lift sanctions on India's nuclear trade during Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to France in September 2008 The momentum in the bilateral relations of the two countries continued in the next years, with France inviting India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to be Chief Guest at its National Day celebrations on July 14, 2009, the Bastille Day parade to mark the 220th anniversary of the French Revolution. The invitation by French President Nicolas Sarkozy sought to reciprocate India’s gesture of making the French President Chief Guest at the Republic Day celebrations in 2008. Along with the Prime Minister Indian Armed Forces were invited to take part in the Parade and 400 Indian Armed Services personnel from the three services took part in the French National Day parade on 14 July 2009. The Maratha Light Infantry led the parade followed by Navy and Air Force units accompanied by their own bands. Fight against terrorism, the situation in Pakistan,

Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, West Asia and the Gulf, furthering cooperation in the defence and nuclear sectors were the main issues discussed between the two leaders. Of course, during this visit the French President openly voiced France's hopes to sell the Rafale fighter planes to India. Following these succession of visits, the French President made a working visit to India in December 2010. This visit made it possible to strengthen the partnership between France and India and open new prospects for cooperation, through the signing of a series of agreements and the adoption of concrete projects in all areas – nuclear, space, university, economics and trade. Apart from Delhi, the French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Bangalore and Mumbai and several agreements and a joint statement emerged out of the visit. To review the progress made since the presidential visit in 2010, the French Ministre d’État visited India in October 2011 and had meetings with the Prime Minister, the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Finance and discussed the major issues and current crises for a concerted response from the international community. With the change of guard, the new President of France Francois Hollande visited India on 14-15 February 2013, to emphasise on

The writer is a Defence, Aerospace and Homeland Security professional and an independent researcher focusing on international security issues, maritime strategy, military affairs and force structuring, defence procurement and policies, climate change and disaster risk management. He was commissioned in the Indian Navy in 1985. He is a Fellow of the International Congress on Disaster Management (FICDM) and a Certified Master Trainer of Trainers from Emergency Management Institute (EMI), Emmetsburg, US. He is also a resource for Indian Institutes and Agencies for training on security issues, conducting table top exercises and risk assessment. With the change of guard, the new President of France Francois Hollande visited India on 14-15 February 2013, to emphasise on expanding the bilateral cooperation in the economic and defense sectors. At a time of the European economic crisis and important international events, this visit underscores France's recognition of India’s strategic, diplomatic and economic emergence, and as an important ally in the emerging geo-economical-political scenario

It was agreed that the Defence Cooperation was to go beyond the buyer-seller relationship, as hitherto. In the international geopolitical arena France supported India’sbid for a permanent membership of the UN Security Council and backed India's entry into the G-8

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

COMPREHENSIVE COOPERATION

expanding the bilateral cooperation in the economic and defence sectors. At a time of the European economic crisis and important international events, this visit underscores France’s recognition of India’s strategic, diplomatic and economic emergence and as an important ally in the emerging geo-economical-political scenario. With shared democratic values, both India and France hold convergent views on major regional and international issues. Both countries are committed to international peace and security, nuclear non-proliferation and counterterrorism. The strategic partnership is arrayed in civil nuclear cooperation, defence cooperation, space cooperation, cooperation in the area of security and the fight against terrorism and in the area of foreign policy. But the key to this strategic partnership will depend on the economic and commercial linkages that are an important component of India’s bilateral relations with France. France is ranked fifth in the list of India’s trading partners among EU countries, after UK, Belgium, Germany and Italy. Indo-French bilateral trade has been growing over the years. In 2012, the Indo-French trade increased by 5 per cent compared to 2011 from € 7.46 billion to € 7.91 billion. However, the global slowdown in 2009 and the Eurozone crisis in 2011-12 saw the trade growth slowdown. In 2012, the overall bilateral trade increased by 5.98 per cent, riding on an increase in French aerospace and nuclear exports to India but there was a decrease of 2.06 per cent in the Indian exports to France over the same period. French exports to India were 0.75 per cent of its global exports in 2012 and French imports from India were 0.91 per cent of its global imports in 2012. For France, aerospace products, nuclear related equipment and electrical machinery and equipment constitute the largest items of exports to India, while India’s largest exports to France are petroleum products, clothing, boilers and organic chemicals. There is undoubtedly

a considerable untapped potential for further growth in our bilateral trade, given the synergies present in the two economies.

126 jets at an estimated cost of US$ 18 billion the Indo-French defence cooperation will be further cemented.

Bilateral economic and commercial ties have been encouraged by leaders in both countries and a large number of visits have taken place in the last five years. These visits in the commercial and economic field are reflective of the importance given by both governments to expanding trade ties. During the visit of the French President in February this year, several issues were discussed and new avenues of cooperation were explored by the two sides to give economic ties a push and to boost the bilateral trade.

With shared democratic values, both India and France hold convergent views on major regional and international issues

Defence and civil nuclear energy are important areas where India and France held discussions on expanding cooperation. The Indo-French defence cooperation dates back to the 1950’s with uninterrupted sales and maintenance despite India’s 1998 nuclear tests. The French Mirage-2000 aircraft plays a strategic role in the Indian defence plans. However the relation was restricted to the relation of a buyer and seller upto 1998, when the strategic partnership took Indo-French defence cooperation further with joint research and development, production, marketing, regular co-operation between the different services and arms and joint training exercises being agreed upon. Currently, India and France are engaged in increasing the military cooperation in many fields. Indo-French defence cooperation agreements promote bilateral strategic ties in fields like, defence strategies, defence research and development, production of weapon systems and capabilities, procurement of weapon systems and capabilities, joint military exercises, transfer of sophisticated armament technology, counter mechanism to thwart international terrorism, sharing of military expertise, sharing of military hardware expertise, joint development of value-added military technologies and hardwares. With the Indian government last year selecting French Dassault Aviation’s Rafale fighter jets over Eurofighter Typhoon to provide

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Indo-French ties in the last two decades have flourished remarkably well albeit in an understated way. France has recognised this and has made a conscious decision to build a comprehensive political and strategic cooperative relationship with India. Further quantitative transformation will hinge on future continued collaborations in defence, civil nuclear cooperation and bilateral trade and commerce. With convergence of strategic interests with India in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region, Indo-French defence cooperation would be mutually beneficial. However, with the recent amendments to the Indian defence procurement procedures announced by the government of India, highlighting thrust on indigenous production, progress on Indo-French defence cooperation will depend on transparency, cost-effectiveness and transfer of technology. On civil nuclear cooperation, France and India can benefit together with the latter’s emergence as a supplier of a full range of nuclear services at home and in the region. Hopefully France will adhere to former president Sarkozy’s ‘full’ civil nuclear cooperation, including the transfer of uranium enrichment technology. Amidst the Eurozone crisis, of course the area of concern remains trade and commerce which in 2012 did not meet the target set in 2008, viz US$ 16 billion and aggregated to only US$ 9 billion. With India sending clear signals of growing confidence in engaging with France for trade enhancement, the next few years may write a new chapter in the Indo-French strategic partnership.

strategic partnership

MILLSTONE AROUND INDIA’S NECK?

Scorpène Deal: Not Going Anywhere

Cecil Victor The writer has covered all wars with Pakistan as War Correspondent and reported from the conflict zones in Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia in South East Asia as well as from Afghanistan. He is author of India: The Security Dilemma.

How did it acquiesce to buy an equipment that the Pakistanis, our arch-enemies, had only very recently bought from the French? Even more surprising was the fact that the only real reason for anyone to buy the Scorpène was the option of installing the “game changer” known as the “air-independent propulsion (AIP)”

he writer takes a critical look at the Scorpène submarine project and asserts that we may like to give greater priority to our Nuclear Submarine production line.In the national interest India needs to accelerate its second submarine assembly line for the Arihant class of nuclear submarines at Visakhapatnam rather than flirt with the foreign acquired air independent propulsion technology. The AIP has limited scope compared with nuclear propulsion and the Indian Navy’s role and responsibilities are no longer just Pakistan-centric. It has to keep an eye on chokepoints as dispersed as the southern tip of South Africa, the Suez passage to the Malacca Strait-south Java route to the Pacific Ocean. For this it will need deep-diving, long endurance submarine capability which can only come from nuclear propulsion. A thought-provoking article. The cost-benefit ratio of these options would have to be worked out.

The Scorpène deal was afflicted by allegations of kickbacks and some of the alleged middlemen who received kickbacks include those who have also been implicated in other defence deals at a later date. The perpetrators of the Navy war-room leak are believed to have had a connection in the Scorpène submarine deal as well

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

strategic partnership

MILLSTONE AROUND INDIA’S NECK?

or those who had observed the Indian defence indigenisation programme over the decades it had come as a surprise that India should have chosen to buy the Franco-Spanish Scorpène submarine in the early years of the 21st century. More so because at one point in the earlier century, the nation was convulsed over the fact that the manufacturer, the German HDW shipbuilders, had also sold the same submarine that it had supplied to India to the white racist regime of South Africa as well. How did it acquiesce to buy an equipment that the Pakistanis, our arch-enemies, had only very recently bought from the French? Even more surprising was the fact that the only real reason for anyone to buy the Scorpène was the option of installing the “game changer” known as the “air-independent propulsion (AIP)” that enabled the submarine to stay underwater for an extended period of time without having to surface every night to discharge diesel fumes and recharge its batteries. That India opted to include the AIP technology only in the last two of six vessels it had ordered further confounded the observers.

ATV uncertainties For a nation that was on the verge of achieving a historic breakthrough in its Advanced Technology Vessel – an euphemism for a nuclear-powered submarine (which, incidentally is about to see the miniaturised nuclear plant installed in the indigenous Arihant submarine attain criticality within the month of May) – that would give it an absolute underwater capability that would be constrained only by the need to give the crew rest and recreation. The AIP technology gives a submerged capability of only about a month (under strict ration conditions). More significantly the Scorpène deal was afflicted by allegations of kickbacks and some of the alleged middlemen who received kickbacks include those who have also been implicated in other defence deals at a later date. The perpetrators of the navy war-room leak are believed to have had a connection in the Scorpène submarine deal as well.

True, the uncertainties that surrounded the ATV project and the delays in its fructification would have spurred any government to seek other options. However, with a stable full of Russian-made Kilo class submarines to shift the whole logistical train to a new submarine appears to have been the handiwork of a lobby that had long advocated “diversification” of sources of supply away from an overdependence on ex-Soviet sources. There is also no gainsaying the fact that every attempt at diversification of sources of supplies of every type of weapons platform has become tainted by the cancer of kickbacks. Among the earliest was the Jaguar deal for an aircraft produced jointly by an Anglo-French consortium. Later came the Mirage fighter, a purely French product.

If the Ministry of Defence is trying to offload the Scorpène millstone from around its neck, the current state of affairs is understandable. However, the Navantia-DCNS combine has also made investment in the Indian offset programme under which several indigenous products would be incorporated into the Scorpènes as the projects unwinds to a conclusion In most of these deals France has been seen to take full advantage of India’s predicament both in the internal political discourse over arms deals and the ambient military situation in the neighbourhood in its pricing of its products. That is why the Scorpène deal came as a surprise to observers at the time.

Options and alternatives It needs to be remembered that Russia as the successor state to the Soviet Union was helping India to iron out the kinks in its ATV project, especially in the miniaturisation of the nuclear power plant which is the heart of a nuclear-propelled and armed, submarine. India already had about ten Russian Kilo class submarines in its gradually aging fleet. It had the option of purchasing more of the upgraded Kilos to ensure that the fleet remains cost-effective and modern at the same time, even as the Indian attempt at going into nuclear propulsion with

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Russian assistance went through its teething troubles. Also, the Russians leased a Charlie class nuclear submarine, renamed Chakra by the Indian Navy, to help train Indian crew to the art and science of nuclear submarine management. These were outstanding examples of good strategic relations between two nations given the fact that at the time India was also under international sanctions for not signing the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The “diversification lobby” managed to arrange the Scorpène deal by which Mazagon Dock would make four of the submarines after the first two were assembled in foreign shipyards (the work was subcontracted to Navantia of Spain which was a partner with France for the original joint venture). One of the conditions which contributed to the series of delays in implementing the contract was that Mazagon Dock Ltd would procure the equipment to be installed in the submarine.

Scorpène in limbo The project has been floundering ever since it was signed. The deal was signed in 2005 under which India would buy six Franco-Spanish Scorpène diesel submarines, with an option for six more and extensive technology transfer agreements. It is now eight years and “Project 75″ as it was named has yet to deliver the first Scorpène submarine. The French (DCNS) and the Spanish (Navantia) are blaming the Mazagon Dock Ltd for the delay in providing the desired systems for the Scorpène family and have quoted massive escalation clauses. The Navantia team walked out of the project on March 31 when the contract ended and the French have presented the Ministry of Defence a large bill as part of its escalation clause. The Indian Navy has been informed that the project has been delayed by a further 18 months and the first vessel can be delivered only in 2016. The first part of the project for six Scorpènes can now be completed only by 2019 if the rest are delivered every nine months.This would mean that the projected lifespan of the Russian Kilo class submarines would have ended long before the Scorpènes would have been put in place.

Millstone around neck If the Ministry of Defence is trying to offload the Scorpène millstone from around its neck, the current state of affairs is understandable. However, the Navantia-DCNS combine has also made investment in the Indian offset programme under which several indigenous products would be incorporated into the Scorpènes as the project unwinds to a conclusion. That the first two vessels were to be constructed abroad was because the facilities created for the four German HDW submarines had rusted and deteriorated with disuse and the technical manpower pool created for submarine construction had retired and disbanded or incorporated in the workforce deployed on the ATV project. The time gap between one submarine project and the next is responsible for the deterioration of the production line which is different in many ways from that required for surface ships.

The time gap between one submarine project and the next is responsible for the deterioration of the production line which is different in many ways from that required for surface ships Mazagon Dock Ltd are reported to have completed laying the hulls for the four submarines assigned to it. The French firm DCNS, a world

leader in shipbuilding technology, has already opened several joint ventures with Indian firms as part of the offset programme. One such facility for the creation of equipment and components required for the French submarine has been opened at the SEC company of Hyderabad. The facility at SEC, will produce 14 key components that can be fitted directly into the submarines. The components include ballast vent valves, high pressure air cylinders, hull hatches and weapon handling systems.

The offset factor It is these factors that will force the Ministry of Defence to reopen negotiations with DCNS and Navantia for the new prices they are quoting. Mazagon Dock will have to be made to fulfil its commitments and the project be brought back on track because recent developments could have an adverse impact on the Public-Private Partnership arrangements that the government has been encouraging. Already, Indian companies that had created joint venture arrangements with well-known foreign firms that have been discovered to be involved in giving kickbacks to Indian and foreign agents to secure the deals are beginning to dissociate themselves from the foreigners. For example Rheinmetal of Germany has had to part ways with its Indian partner after it was blacklisted. Eight other foreign

firms that had evolved joint ventures with Indian firms in anticipation of lucrative deals for which they could offer their technology and technical expertise have come to grief for using illegal methods to secure the deals. In the national interest India needs to accelerate its second submarine assembly line for the Arihant class of nuclear submarines at Visakhapatnam rather than flirt with the foreign acquired air independent propulsion technology. The AIP has limited scope compared with nuclear propulsion and the Indian Navy’s role and responsibilities are no longer just Pakistan-centric. It has to keep an eye on chokepoints as dispersed as the southern tip of South Africa, the Suez passage to the Malacca Strait-south Java route to the Pacific Ocean. For this it will need deep-diving, long endurance submarine capability which can only come from nuclear propulsion. The next generation of nuclear submarines will have to be of the hunter-killer (submarine-submarine killer) variety which must come on stream by the time the Kilo class diesel submarines complete their designed lives and be ready for decommissioning. The Scorpène deal has been a drag and it is time to decide its fate one way or the other and move on.

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strategic partnership

EVOLVING SYNERGY

India-France Strategic Partnership

The Way Forward

pragmatic analysis of the defence and security ties between India and France. India and France, share many problems and for the solutions of which they can cooperate. Moreover they can work together in development cooperation with Francophone Western Indian Ocean Islands. In light of regional powers’ ambition to reshape world order along the guidelines of a balanced multi-polarity, a goal already expressed by France, the prospects for a more cooperative relationship between France and India in the region increase. Further, France seems eager to help India rise in order to counter China's growing influence in the region. Lastly, India’s commitment to maintain peace in the conflict prone regions and its assistance jointly with France and other EU nations will certainly boost the strategic level of cooperation and understanding between the two countries, with regards to collaboration in defence and security areas.

ndia’s relationship with the European Union (EU) gives it limited opportunities to build closer cooperation with its member states. However, direct bilateral relationship of India with EU member states, especially, France and Germany has resulted in immense cooperation and collaboration in various fields including defence and security. India-France relations of present has its significance, deeply rooted in the historical linkages it has shared with India which has yielded positive results beneficial to both the countries’ commitment towards becoming a truly strategic partner in the 21st century.

The significance relations

the

The significance movement of the year 1998 begins with the visit of the French President Jacques Chirac to India, to the recent visit of the French President Francois Hollande of 2013 to India gives clear signs of progress for both the countries to develop deeper and wider areas of cooperation and prospects in the near future. France amongst EU shares major advantage when dealing with India at bilateral level; however, one

cannot ignore the other strategic partners, within the EU member states as United Kingdom, Germany, Poland and Ukraine (As non-EU member state, but signed strategic partnership with India in 2012). France was the first western country to lift the arms embargo that hit both India and Pakistan in the aftermath of the 1965 conflict. Although India was never in the radar screen of the French decision-makers for cooperation and partnership. It is not merely trade that dominates the relations between the two countries but it also has deep linkages due to the defence and security cooperation. Its support for Non-Alignment Movement, during the cold war and further fulfilling India’s growing military hardware and equipment requirements makes it a strategic partner for India in the 21st century.

Strategic partnership between India and France The milestone for the foundation of the India-France relations although had deep historical linkages and the strategic culture that has paved its seeds in year 1998 for the beginning of the strategic partnership. The successive visits by the Indian Prime

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Minister and the French President in September 2005 and February 2006 re-affirmed the strategic character of the partnership. Also the year 1998 got major twist in the relationship after India conducted its nuclear tests in May 1998 which was taken positively by France to appreciate India’s role in the 21st century to become a nuclear power. Later in 1999 it reloaded the release of India’s nuclear draft as a ‘logical and indeed wanted step’.

Joint production and collaboration projects are becoming increasingly frequent between French and Indian defence companies

Defence cooperation The defence association with India dates back to the early years of the Indian republic, when India had to outline a new foreign and defence policy, when France emerged as India’s most reliable arms supplier during the cold war; however it was greatly shadowed by the Soviet Union. In order to understand the Indo-French defence relationship it could be divided into three parts as one during the cold war 1947-1962,

Praful S Adagale The writer is a PhD Research Fellow working in YCNISDA, University of Pune, India. His areas of expertise and specialisation include International Security, European Studies and Terrorism Analysis.

where defence ties between the two countries emerged but remains largely strained by colonial issues. The second phase during the 1962-1971, when India embarked on modernising its defence system and France surfaced as one of its main arms suppliers and the third phase of 1971-1991, where India asserted its defence capabilities and heavily relied on Soviet supplies. Its first assistance to India in establishing defence relations came in 1949, when it acquired mountain kits for its Kashmiri troops, which further cemented after India’s purchase of a long list of armaments, the MD 450 Ouragan aircraft. The 71 pieces which were ordered in 1953 were delivered the same year. During the following nine years, significant arms deals were struck between the two countries: India purchased 110 Mystère-4A fighter aircraft and 164 AMX-13/Model-51 light tanks in 1956, 12 Alizé anti-submarine warfare aircraft in 1959 and 3 SA-316B Alouette III light helicopters (useful for high altitude landings) in 1961. Indo-French deals between 1962 and 1968 averaged only US$ 13 million per year, when they had reached US$ 322 million in 1957 and US$ 282 million in 1958. For the same six years, the Indo-British deals averagend US$97 million a year. French supplies to India for that period of time amounted to 3 Alizé aircraft, 50 AS-30 air-to-surface missiles (AS – abbreviated Aerospatiale: A French aerospace manufacturer), 2000 ENTAC and 4000 SS-11/AS-11 anti-tank missiles. Other orders were passed, such as that of 40 SA-315B Lama and 230 SA-315B Lama light helicopters in 1968 and 1971 respectively, as well as 500 AM-50 120 mm mortars, but none of

these were delivered until the 1970s or later. A transfer of technology agreement was signed in 1983 for 30 TRS surveillance radars (TRS – abbreviated Thales Raytheon Systems) and for 7 PSM surveillance radars (PSM – abbreviated Persistent Surveillance Mission), in 1988. To give an institutional framework to the expanding defence cooperation a Defence MoU was signed in 1982 and an Indo-French Defence Cooperation Working Group was constituted. The year 1998 to 2000 was the period of understanding and cooperation between the two countries to raise their bilateral relations to strategic level for which a strategic dialogue in year 1998 and 1999, with India’s Defence Minister George Fernandes, with his first trip abroad to Paris where in May 1999 the high committee for defence met for the first time and in February 2000, an operation defined in the Indian press as India’s first post Pokhran naval exercise with a UN security council member. In year 2000, for 10 new Mirage 2000 jets and constitutions an indigenously designed submarine, avionics for MiG-2T and GPS navigation packages for Sukhoi-30 aircraft. Some of the major defence deals signed with France: 1999 – Deal for six PA-6 Diesel Engines was concluded.

India-France relations of today has its significance, deeply rooted in the historical linkages it has shared with India which has yielded positive results beneficial to both the countries commitment towards becoming a truly strategic partner in the 21st century

The milestone for the foundation of the India-France relation although had deep historical linkages and the strategic culture that has paved its seeds in year 1998 for the beginning of the strategic partnership. The successive visits by the Indian Prime Minister and the French President in September 2005 and February 2006 re-affirmed the strategic character of the partnership

The defence association with India dates back to the early years of the Indian republic, when India had to outline a new foreign and defence policy, when France emerged as India’s most reliable arms supplier during the cold war

2000 – Deal for ten Mirage 2000H and Mirage-2000TH jets worth US$ 320 million but was delivered in 2004. 2001 – Deal for TM-333 Ardiden turboshaft engines for the Dhruv LCH combat helicopter.

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strategic partnership

EVOLVING SYNERGY

2005 – Deal for US$ 3 billion for 6 Scorpène submarines. 2010 – Deal for the upgradation of 50 Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 aircraft worth Rs 9,640 crore. India has cleared the Rs 6,600 crore acquisition of 490 French advanced missile systems to arm the Mirage2000 fighter jets, which are being upgraded under a separate Rs 10,947 crore programme finalised in July, 2010 India signed a deal with French companies Thales and Dassault Aviation. “The cost of the contract for upgrade of the Mirage 2000 with Thales is Euro 1,470 million while the cost of the contract with HAL is Rs 2,020 crore (around Euro 340 million). The upgrade of the aircraft is expected to be completed by mid 2021. India clears a Euro 950 million deal to procure 500 air-to-air missiles from a French firm for IAF’s Mirage 2000 aircraft fleet. The missiles would be deployed on the 51 Mirage 2000 aircraft, which are already undergoing upgrades at French facilities under a Euro 1.47 billion deal signed in 2012. France selected as the Lowest Bidder for the Indian MMRCA Programme for the purchase of 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA), as the deal will now cost Rs 76,000 crore upward, making it the largest deal ever signed between the two countries.

Joint military and security cooperation The involvement of France with India in the field of space cooperation is also as old as its cooperation in defence areas. The relationship between the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and the Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES) is the government agency responsible for shaping and implementing France’s space policy in Europe is well established. The joint research on a new satellite for climate and weather applications, to be launched in 2005 on India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (ISRO and Arianespace signed an agreement on PSLV in 1998). Further cooperation is also expected in the fields of aerospace, aeronautics and space

science, under the twin umbrella of the Society of Indian Aerospace Technologies (SIATI) and the French Aerospace Industries Group: (GIFAS), representing hundreds of high-tech companies, while the new INSAT-3B ISRO satellites are still launched from French Guyana. The recent success has been an Indian rocket successfully launched into orbit on Indo-French tropical weather satellite and three other smaller satellites from the spaceport in which the French Arianespace provides launch facilities for Indian Satellites (INSAT), while India’s PSLV has been used to launch satellites for European customers. During President Sarkozy’s December 2010 visit to India, an MoU was signed between the French Space Agency (CNES) and the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) on future areas of co-operation in Earth Observation for climate change and space exploration. The French space agency, (CNES), has built three instruments of Megha-Tropiques: Both level 1 and level 2 as SAPHIR (Sounder for Atmospheric Profiling of Humidity), ScaRaB (Scanner For Radiation Budget Measurement) and GPS-ROS (Global Positioning Systems – Radio Occultation System). The fourth, MADRAS (Microwave Analysis and Detection of Rain and Atmospheric Structures) is a joint effort of ISRO wand CNES.

Indo-French cooperation in the nuclear field has a long history. There was a personal friendship between Homi Bhabha, father of the Indian nuclear energy programme and Frederic Joliot-Curie, noted French nuclear physicist

Defence and cooperation

technology

Joint production and collaboration projects are becoming increasingly frequent between French and Indian defence companies. For example the French aviation giant Snecma is already collaborating with HAL on the production of aero engines powering the Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) and is working with the DRDO on producing Kaveri engines for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). Turbomeca is also cooperating with HAL, to co-develop

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the Ardiden 1H – called Shakti engine for the twin-engined Dhruv ALH. The US$ 3 billion 6 Scorpène submarines deal was signed in October 2005 between India and Armaris (a subsidiary of France’s Thales group) and Direction des Constructions Navales (DCN). Another area of interest and major concern for all the nations is to protect and prevent the incoming threat from the ballistic missiles. In that case, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) of India, is developing a Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system to be deployed by 2015. Like the Dhruv, LCH is powered by two Shakti engines jointly developed with France’s Turbomeca. The Maitri short-range (15 km) surface-to-air missile is a point defence system being co-developed by DRDO in collaboration with MBDA of France under a 2007 government -to-government agreement. Six Scorpène submarines, to be built at Mazagon Dock Ltd (MDL) shipyard under a transfer of technology agreement with France’s DCNS, will be delivered to Indian Navy under Project 75. The submarines are being acquired under a 2.4 billion Euro contract signed in 2005 and will be commissioned in the navy from 2013 through 2018.

Nuclear cooperation Indo-French cooperation in the nuclear field has a long history. There was a personal friendship between Homi Bhabha, father of the Indian nuclear energy programme and Frederic Joliot-Curie, noted French nuclear physicist, who registered the first French patents for atomic piles in 1939 and Francis Perrin, who later became the High Commissioner of the (CEA – French Atomic Energy Commission), which was created in 1945 and was made responsible for promoting the use of nuclear energy. A joint agreement was concluded to extract thorium from monazite sand. Since then, France has supported India in the set up of a heavy water production facility at Baroda and also facilitated in the construction of the fast breeder test reactor at Kalpakkam. The agreement to set up nuclear power reactors in Maharashtra was signed on February 4, 2009 between French nuclear energy giant, AREVA and the

state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL). The US$ 9.3 billion contract is to build a 9,900-megawatt nuclear power plant at Jaitapur in the western state of Maharashtra. This deal is significant in the sense that on the one hand it will help India tackle the looming energy crisis while on the other hand open avenues of nuclear trade and also further strengthen the relationship between India and France. According to the agreement, the two companies will start technical and commercial discussions for setting up two to six European Pressurised Reactor (EPR) units of 1,650 MW each at Jaitapur in Maharashtra and fuel supply for the lifetime of the reactors, which could last up to 60 years. More than 100 French companies have also committed to putting in Euro 10 billion in the next couple of years, which include the setting up of two new nuclear generation power plants, or European Pressurised Reactors (EPRs), in Jaitapur, to be developed by French nuclear giant AREVA and the US$ 1 billion investment by Michelin to set up a radial tyre manufacturing unit near Chennai.

Terrorism In dealing with the challenges of countering terrorism, although India and France are not located in close proximity to each other but share a close understanding on the need to ensure peace, stability and security in a highly fragile world. France and India reiterated their determination and confirmed their commitment to work together towards peace and global security such as regional crises, terrorism, climate change, sea piracy, drug trafficking and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems, as well as to promote arms control and global disarmament. Indo-French Joint Working Group meeting on International Terrorism was held on September 7, 2001 in Paris. The Indo-French extradition treaty signed in January 2003 was a significant step towards bilateral cooperation in fighting terrorism. A special Joint Working Group on Terrorism has been established for cooperation in the fight against terrorism.

Conclusion

References

France is one of the major countries in EU with whom we have both defence and security cooperation. France has all to gain from cultivating strong ties with India which is looking at purchasing defence equipment. Furthermore, the more clients France has for its defence industry, the cheaper its products will be for its own armed forces. The bigger the scale of production, the cheaper the unit cost for each defence product and this is an important parameter for the French military and civilian officials when they deal with a partner like India. India and France both are important maritime powers in the region and have been encouraging bilateral naval exercises and have initiated several strategic dialogues that cover a wide spectrum of relations. The implication of the above facts is that both, India and France, share many problems and for the solutions of which they can cooperate. Moreover they can work together in development cooperation with Francophone Western Indian Ocean Islands. In light of regional powers, ambition to reshape world order along the guidelines of a balanced multipolarity, a goal already expressed by France, the prospects for a more cooperative relationship between France and India in the region increase. Further, France seems eager to help India’s rise in the Asian region as well and help to counter China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). India-France (through Reunion) is an Indian Ocean littoral country that has historical and cultural connections with the Francophone Western Indian Ocean Islands, where France has economic and strategic interests. It’s involvement with India in the IOR will boost further cooperation in tackling piracy and organised crime. Lastly, India’s commitment to maintain peace in the conflict prone regions and its assistance jointly with France and other EU nations will certainly boost the strategic level of cooperation and understanding between the two countries, with regards to collaboration in defence and security areas.

1. B Krishnamurthy, Indo-French Relations: Prospects and Perspectives (New Delhi: Shipra Publications, 2005), p. 68, 109. 2. Constance, Roger, “Indo-French Defence Cooperation: Friends in need are friends indeed”? Published in Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) New Delhi, 2007, pp. 2-3. 3. Sumit, Ganguly, (ed.), “India as an Emerging Power’, (London: Frank Cass, 2003), p. 3, 159, 172. 4. Great Expectations: Indo-French Defence Relations, Kanwal Sibal, http://www.vifindia.org/article/2011/ june/23/Great-Expectations-Indo-FrenchDefence-Relations 5. Cabinet clears Rs 6,600 crore French missile deal, The Times of India, available at http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ india/Cabinet-clears-Rs-6600cr-Frenchmissile-deal/articleshow/11368604.cms 6. India clears 950 million Euro deal for missiles, Zee News, available at http:// zeenews.india.com/news/nation/ india-clears-950-million-euro-deal-formissiles_750319.html 7. Government clears Euro 950 mn |Mirage 2000 missile deal available at http:// business-standard.com/india/news/govtclears-euro-950-mn-mirage-2000-missiledeal/154429/ on January 04, 2012. 8. http://www.dailypioneer.com/ pioneer-news/top-story/12674-indianrocket-launches-4-satellites-successfully-. html 9. Vidhan Pathak, “China and Francophone Western Indian Ocean Region: Implications for Indian Interests”, Journal of Defence Studies, Vol 3. No 4. October 2009, p. 1-79. 10. Dr Ashok Sharma, “Growing Indo-French Nuclear Bonhomie: Ensuring India’s Energy Security”, published in Centre for Land Warfare Studies, available at http://www.claws.in/index. php?action=master&task=285&u_id=9 a 11. India, France aim for Euro 12 billion bilateral trade by 2012 available at http:// www.business-standard.com/india/ news/india-france-aim-for-euro-12-bnbilateral-trade-by-2012/417409/

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strategic partnership

EUROPEAN PERSPECTIVE

French-Indian Alliance

n interesting European perspective on India-France relations. Both countries have ambitions to be at least regional leaders. And it is a very realistic ambition. France is, not only in Europe, but one of the world’s few nuclear powers. Thanks to nuclear plants they have energy independence and they are also benefiting from selling to other partners their technology. Paris is looking for partners in other continents and India is one of the most logical choices. French President, Francois Hollande has a completely different style, different political orientation and different goals than his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy. One thing however, is unchangeable – relations with India. For many years France and India, two political and nuclear powers have had very close and good relations. Is this a sign of an emerging multipolar world order?

elations between India and France have traditionally been close and friendly. With the establishment of the strategic partnership in 1998, there has been a significant progress in all areas of bilateral cooperation through regular high-level exchanges at the Head of State / Head of Government levels and growing commercial exchanges including in strategic areas such as defence, nuclear energy and space. France was the first country with which India entered into an agreement on nuclear energy following the waiver given by International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers Group enabling India to resume full civil nuclear cooperation with the international community. There is also a growing and wide-ranging cooperation in areas such as trade and investment, culture, science and technology and education. France has consistently supported India’s increasing role in international fora, including India’s permanent membership of the UNSC.

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was, without any doubts, charismatic leader with clear vision of position of his country inside European Union and global politics as well. What were the crucial points in his vision? Inside EU – very close, strategic relations with Germany. This tandem called Merkozy (combination of German chancellor Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy names) was the primary power in Europe. Both politicians – Merkel and Sarkozy – were from the same political family (Christian Democrat faction) and had more or less similar vision.

They understood necessity of economic changes and reforms, they wanted to face and combat with recession and progressively strengthen European integration. Some of analysts used to say that Merkozy wanted to impose their hegemony on other European countries. It was at least partially true because before every single European summit, it was bilateral meeting between French and German leaders that decided key issues. Firstly they negotiated their common position and later on announced this to the rest.

During the first visit of Sarkozy a targeted goal of € 12 billion in bilateral trade was set. Till now this very ambitious goal has not been reached. But in 2009 was formed The Indo-French CEOs Forum which has been tasked to identify new avenues for cooperation and take initiatives to facilitate business links between both countries Apart from relations with Germany, Sarkozy was orientated, (which is quite unusual for a French leader) to the euro-atlantic, which means that he wanted also to build strategic relations with the United States. It was really a very rare position in France, especially comparing with his predecessors like Jacques Chirac for instance. Chirac was one of the biggest antagonists of George Bush and leader of anti-American front inside Europe. Sarkozy chose the other way, he wanted to be the second partner, after United Kingdom, for USA. Unfortunately he did not have enough strong partners in Washington, because Barack Obama was – like most of democrats – more interested in

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internal rather than external relations. So Europe was not so attractive for him. Taking the case of Russia. Almost all French presidents are interested in good relations with Russia. Sarkozy had good contacts with Vladimir Putin, Russian President and former Prime Minister. Of course, it was primarily energy politics and common business relations on the agenda. Even Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 did not break this harmony. Last but not the least, relations with India. Nicolas Sarkozy has visited India twice: In January 2008 and December 2010. The Prime Minister of India was the Guest of Honour at the 14 July Bastille Day Celebrations (National Day in France) in 2009. A 400-strong contingent of the Indian armed forces led then the Bastille Day parade – the first time ever that Indian troops took part in another country’s national day parade. The 16th session of the Joint Committee for Economic and Technical Cooperation, at the level of Ministers of Commerce which deals with issues related to commerce and trade, was held on 23-25 June, 2010 in Paris. Indo-French Air Force Exercise Garuda IV was held at Istres air base in France from 14-25 June 2010. We shall underline that during the first visit of Sarkozy a targeted goal of € 12 billion in bilateral trade was set. Till now this very ambitious goal has not been reached. But in 2009 was formed The Indo-French CEOs Forum

Dominika Cosic

which has been tasked to identify new avenues for cooperation and take initiatives to facilitate business links between both countries. All these examples expressed how important for both countries were good mutual relations. In May last year, the presidential election was won by socialist candidate, Francois Hollande, politician with rich political experience, very well known in France. The curious fact is that his former partner and mother of his children, Segolene Royal was socialist candidate in a previous presidential election. For many years it was Madame Royal who was more popular and recognised part of this tandem. What changes improved Hollande’s chances in French politics? It’s not easy to judge only after one year of his term, especially since many things can change, but there is now a colder atmosphere in German-French relations. It is reasonable and easy to understand. Hollande is socialist, chancellor Merkel’s roots are Christian Democrat. However, after these initial months, it is visible that both countries have different ideas for the European economy. For the final opinion we should await the outcome of parliamentary elections in Germany, which will take place this year. If they will deliver victory of socialist candidate we should expect return of German-French cooperation and domination. 12 months is also not enough time to say something constructive about relations with non-European partners. However, everything confirms that relations with India are still the number one priority for the new French President. During the G20 Summit in Los Cabos in June 2012, first meeting of Hollande with Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh took place. France and India have instituted a Strategic Dialogue at the level of National Security Advisors whose 24th round took place in New Delhi on September 4, 2012. The latest round of Annual Foreign Office Consultations at the level of Foreign Secretaries was held in New Delhi on June 28, 2012. The 3rd meeting of the JWG on Counter-terrorism was held in

New Delhi on November 19-20, 2012. For a one year period, it is not a bad record. Let’s look at other figures: In 2011, bilateral trade had increased by 6 per cent to € 7.46 billion. In the first ten months of 2012, there has been a decrease of 3.71 per cent in the bilateral trade over the same period of 2011. In 2011, India was the 13th largest foreign investor in France in terms of project numbers. Indian investments in France have been growing and Indian companies have invested around Euro 1 billion from April 1996 in different sectors. A landmark Agreement on Civil Nuclear Cooperation was signed between India and France on 30 September, 2008 during the visit of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh to France. Subsequently, during the visit of President Nicolas Sarkozy to India from 4-7 December 2010, the General Framework Agreement and the Early Works Agreement between NPCIL and AREVA for implementation of EPR NPP Units at Jaitapur were signed. Government of India has selected Rafale from Dassault Aviation, France for procurement of 126 MMRCA for the Indian Air Force. Contract negotiations are currently ongoing. We should ask – why good relations are of such importance for France and India? There are few reasons at least. Both countries have ambitions to be at least regional leaders. And it is a very realistic ambition. France is, not only in Europe, but one of the world's few nuclear powers. Thanks to nuclear plants they have energy independence and they are also benefiting from selling to other partners their technology. Paris is looking for partners in other continents and India is one of the most logical choices. Aside of any other reasons, India is much less controversial and more reasonable partner than for example China. There has also not been any negative experience in common relations that has added to the traction in this relationship. So from the French perspective India looks like one of the best partners. It seems that from the Indian perspective also the situation is similar.

The writer is a journalist and political correspondent based in Brussels. She specialises in NATO and European Union affairs. She is correspondent (Europe) of Defence and Security Alert (DSA) magazine. Relations between India and France have traditionally been close and friendly. With the establishment of the strategic partnership in 1998, there has been a significant progress in all areas of bilateral cooperation through regular high-level exchanges at the Head of State / Head of Government levels and growing commercial exchanges including in strategic areas such as defence, nuclear energy and space. France was the first country with which India entered into an agreement on nuclear energy following the waiver given by International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group enabling India to resume full civil nuclear cooperation with the international community

During the G20 Summit in Los Cabos on June 2012, first meeting of Hollande with Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh took place. France and India have instituted a Strategic Dialogue at the level of National Security Advisors whose 24th round took place in New Delhi on September 4, 2012. The latest round of Annual Foreign Office Consultations at the level of Foreign Secretaries was held in New Delhi on June 28, 2012

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neighbourhood watch

NEW BATTLEGROUND?

Geopolitical Ramifications on the Brahmaputra Front

hina’s relentless refusal to disseminate inter-basin hydrological data with its lower riparian countries denotes its mindset. In the absence of a water sharing treaty between the two countries, India, being the lower riparian, coherently, deems vital for China to act as a responsible upper riparian neighbour and concede water cooperation. Some apologists for China state that the river runs into India from China with nearly 78 bcm of water and receives an additional 629 bcm, China’s unilateral dam construction activities should leave India uninhibited. This does not factor in the aspect of the lean season flow. The buzz around the construction of the 38-gigawatt Motuo Dam ie the ‘world’s largest dam’ at the Great Bend would create major effects on the downstream nations. The natural course of the water flows will, thenceforth, shift from southward to the northward. Such re-routing of the water course could be positively disasterous for India and Bangladesh. India cannot afford to beat around the bush and must stridently try to deter any such move.

rahmaputra River or Yarlung Tsangpo (also known as the purifier) is the highest and fastest flowing river in the world, ranked as the fourth largest river, in terms of, annual discharge. An international transboundary river that supports, nearly, a quarter billion people, the Brahmaputra, ostensibly, holds major geostrategic implications for the transnational riparian countries. The Brahmaputra’s mean annual runoff volume output from Tibet aggregates 165, 400 km3 ie greater than the combined cross-border flows of the Mekong and Salween flowing from Tibet into India.1 India, on the contrary, is the main beneficiary of transboundary river flows from the Tibetan plateau as its major dependency lies on the Brahmaputra, Indus and the Ganges. The Sino-Indian geopolitical race has now emerged as a defining factor in seeking to downplay interstrategic interests notwithstanding the emerging demands of ‘the other’. China’s reassurances of its run-of-the-river projects remain in distaste with India considering its past experiences. The 2006, Three Gorges Dam project, spawned a new political strife in the diplomatic relations between India and China which, primarily, led to flash floods, recurrent landslides, ecological pollution and over reservoir-induced seismicity. China’s relentless refusal to disseminate inter-basin hydrological data with its lower riparian countries

denotes its mindset and subdued nature on transnational hydraulic interplay.

Hydro-affairs during the lean season Irrespective of the proposed Chinese dam construction, implications of the Brahmaputra River continue to defy geostrategic alterations between the two countries in the future course of events. Factors including climate change, inflating demand-supply ratios, human-induced pollution, geotectonic movements and chaotic water management systems are impinging exorbitant stress levels over the river course. In the absence of a water sharing treaty between the two countries, India, being the lower riparian, coherently, deems vital for China to act as a responsible upper riparian neighbour and concede water cooperation in the name of securing international riparian linkages.

Any upstream impoundment or diversion of the water course would leave Bangladesh devastated at its deltaic plains Dam building has been exhibited to play an integral part in formulating the state structure of Communist China. As an indispensible tool to the national development process of the country, dam building is regarded as the prime means to curb China’s exacerbating water woes. The Chinese government, Indian Ministry of Water Resources and the Central Water Commission

assert that the Chinese diversionary projects will cause a bare minimal effect on the paleo channel and the lower terrain of the basin. Contended that the river runs into India from China with nearly 78 bcm of water and receives an additional 629 bcm, China’s unilateral dam construction activities should leave India uninhibited. 2 However, it is conceded that China’s hydrological assertions must be vested in its self-interest to protect and secure the downstream channel during the lean and non-monsoon seasons. When the season is lean, China is not going to halt its power plants. India will, then, receive only the surplus amount of water. As articulated, India may reconsider paying significant heed to the ecological dangers as projected by the Ministry of External Affairs, but China’s geostrategic impasse over the boundary delineation, Tibetan issue, Sino-Pak nuclear proliferation reticence, hydro-politics of Brahmaputra River or overarching military build-up should purport major regional security flashpoints with global contrecoup for India to deal with. The most likely to be affected is North-east India and Bangladesh. It will enhance the siltation of the riverbed, resulting in an aggravation of flash floods, impact inland water transportation systems, depleting the lower basin of nutrient-rich sediments coupled with adverse effects on the marine life and ecosystem of the river basin amplified by desertification.

1. Chellaney, Brahma. Water: Asia’s New Battleground. India: Harper Collins Publishers, 2011. 2. Biswas, K Asit; Uitto, I Juha, Sustainable Development of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins. New York: United Nations University Press, 2001.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

Roomana Hukil

Global climate change is already perceptible in the region; resultant melting of the glaciers and, sequentially, leading to reduced water flows eminently in the lean seasons ie March-April and October-November. This ails the livelihood, fluvial and ecological systems of the basin. It is also tampered by sandstorms, uncertain weather patterns, draughts, floods etc. As these climatic disorders perpetuate, the stress exhibited over the basin to cater to the growing demands of food security and fresh water availability accentuate. The buzz around the construction of the 38-gigawatt Motuo Dam ie the ‘world’s largest dam’ at the Great Bend would demark major effects on the downstream nations. The natural course of the water flows will, thenceforth, shift from southward to the northward. Such re-routing of the water course to where the largest water resources are concentrated, may inject a new impediment for the Sino-Indian relationship. However, no significant confirmation has been given by China that should cause India to worry at this point. In a scenario, where China affirms its dam-building projects over the Great Bend, India, should, thus, stay vigilant. But, by beating around the bush, India will only concentrate on covert impediments by covetously overlooking at its overt ramifications. The issue is not about China siphoning large water chunks of the Brahmaputra to meet its domestic use but where and when. China’s geological projections over the water course during the lean season and / or at the Great Bend may, significantly, indeed set security alarms on for the Asian regime. However, rampaging about yet but futile implications without hydro-engineered statistics provides zilch impetus to caution.

Overarching efficacies for South Asia Reasonably, when compared to any other

Asian country, the Chinese dams are enormous in size and purpose and, thus, carry profound transnational implications for its riparian neighbours. As claimed, China’s upstream damming will ‘help reduce flood damage’ and ‘manage the waste’ through discharge into the ocean and will not, ‘significantly’ affect the downstream river states. These claims compound a strategic empirical that comprehends the geopolitical alignment. The dam construction projects will, indeed, foster greater reduction during the floods, as it will, significantly, decrease human-induced wastage into the Bay of Bengal also caused due to the impaired water management systems of the country. The greatest impact of the impoundment and diversion of the Brahmaputra will be borne by Bangladesh. Bangladesh is already undergoing water stress in its major cities which is accentuated by saltwater intrusion, extreme weather calamities, exhausting natural resources etc. The slightest Chinese diversion of the Brahmaputra River is, likely, to depreciate the flow of several streams in Bangladesh besides affecting the hydrology, sediment load, quality and salinity of the delta areas. Bangladesh has 54 major cross-border rivers with only one dam and three irrigation barrages. China, on the contrary, has about 24,000 mega-dams. Any upstream impoundment or diversion of the water course would leave Bangladesh devastated at its deltaic plains. Whereby, met with undermined food production, exacerbated poverty levels and a disrupted ecological system. The annual flooding during the monsoons, aided by the country’s low-lying topography, often causes major damage and destruction in Bangladesh. As compared to India, Bangladesh’s population heavily relies on its limited natural resources that are being exploited at an alarming rate. Its per capita saline water availability is fivefold than India. Since, the Brahmaputra is the

The writer is a Research Officer at the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. She did her Masters in Conflict Analysis and Peace Building from Jamia Millia Islamia in 2011 and works under the Non-Traditional Security Programme and coordinates the activities within the Armed Conflicts in South Asia Programme at the institute. Her areas of interest are water conflicts in South Asia, geopolitics, climate change, human security and sustainable development.

The most likely to be affected is North-east India and Bangladesh. It will enhance the siltation of the riverbed, resulting in an aggravation of flash floods, impact inland water transportation systems, depleting the lower basin of nutrient – rich sediments coupled with adverse effects on the marine life and ecosystem of the river basin amplified by desertification

As an indispensible tool to the national development process of the country, dam building is regarded as the prime means to curb China’s exacerbating water woes. The Chinese government, Indian Ministry of Water Resources and the Central Water Commission assert that the Chinese diversionary projects will cause a bare minimal effect on the paleo channel and the lower terrain of the basin

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

neighbourhood watch

NEW ATTLE GROUND

most significant river to Bangladesh (599 km mean annual runoff volume) it supports more than half of the population. The central issue for both India and Bangladesh is that they receive excessive water during the monsoon season and less water during the lean season. This upstream appropriation of the Brahmaputra River impedes the problem by reducing transboundary flows when water is utmost required ie during the dry season. Concurrently, unlike Bangladesh, India is not heavily dependent on just one or two river systems originating from Tibet. Besides the Brahmaputra, it relies on multiple rivers such as the Indus, Sutlej, Kosi etc. India is also the major source of cross-border river flows to other countries namely, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Myanmar. A diversion along the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra River course would only mean a reduction in water availability in the dry season ie 50 per cent of the 31.25 bcm, presently available. Ergo, it would imply a mean reduction of 50 per cent hydropower generation in Arunachal Pradesh which is insignificant; considering the ample hydropower generation capacity in the region. Mounting national water demands, the depletion and degradation of natural resources and effects of climate change are increasingly altering the balance of power paradigm between the South Asian riparian states by laying greater emphasis on provisions for fresh water supplies. The heightened hydrophobia in South Asia has only emerged due to the diversification of geological transformations. The riparian nations fathom such transitions and any vexatious activity by ‘the other’ is perceived as a threat to their national interest accumulating to the political distrust in Asia.

The veracity behind the 2012 floods The floods of the 2012 were an unprecedented event along the Brahmaputra River course. The heavy monsoon rains that led to a massive flooding along the North-eastern coast of India caused wide scale loss to human life and property specifically in the areas of Assam, Manipur and Meghalaya. Factors that caused the mishap were reasoned to be the impact of climate

change and the increased sedimentary deposits from watershed areas due to deforestation. With climate change, the glaciers are receding at a faster pace which is known to have a serious impact on the hydrology of the Brahmaputra basin. Parameters, directly, overarching on temperature, like potential evapotranspiration, are on the rise. As the annual precipitation is not projected to significantly change, a seasonal amount is likely to intensify the rainfalls. Various climate change indicators, such as the duration of the longest dry seasons indicate the frequency and protracted draughts. An increase in the number of consecutive dry days and the leveraged five day precipitation amount in the Tibetan Plateau during the monsoon season, coupled with temperature trends, indicate that the North-eastern frontier of India is eminently sensitive to the future projections resultant from changes in the environment. Climate change effects are, therefore, much likely to cause intense natural catastrophe in North-east India on an annual basis. With the increased sedimentary deposit over the river course, its sediment-carrying capacity has impacted a continuous bed rise of the flows, intensified braiding and soil erosion which has culminated in strategic losses of its discharge carrying capacity. 429.76 km3 (out of 537.2 km3 annual mean runoff) contributes to the total volume of the water flows during the four month monsoon season. Due to a constant silt deposition over the main course of the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries, the streams cross channel over the years and, have now become inadequate to safely transmit the huge flow volumes. More so, the excess hydro-flows spill over onto the bank and / or breaches the old embankments by overarching them or cause heavy seepage. This results in a widespread flood. Little can be attributed to the Chinese hydro-structure build-ups over the middle reaches of the transnational river. 90 per cent of China’s dam proposals are along the tributaries of the Brahmaputra River. Should a situation arise where India receives reduced flows during the dry season, it will only block the run-of-the-river projects along a

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

tributary and not the entire reservoir. If China sticks to its stance on its hydropower generation capacity then India should be complacent with China’s geostrategic moves. China’s re-assertions of the projects being ‘run-of-river-only’ embark China’s dire need for hydro-power generation. Consequently, this does not temper anything significant for India. Hydro-power generation, primarily, is applied for non-consumptive usages of water and should result in augmenting the dry season flow by 10-20 per cent. This, contrarily, is a good sign for irrigation in India’s North-east and Bangladesh. Second, India should wave a red flag only and until it is observed that China is diverting a constant amount of water northwards throughout the year. India already receives 50 per cent of the Ganges water in the east. Should it then be required of India to compromise on its position over the Brahmaputra, the central government will have a lot of answering to do with Arunachal Pradesh. A major chunk digression of the waters would prove detrimental to the downstream states. Post the diversion process, the dry season flow could diminish by 20-30 per cent. India and China, at this stage, are relatively in safe hands; however, one cannot rule out geopolitical nuances of the evolving riparian relationships since it always takes two to tango!

References Chellaney, Brahma Water: Asia’s New Battleground. India: Harper Collins Publishers, 2011. Biswas, K Asit; Uitto, I Juha, Sustainable Development of the Ganges-BrahmaputraMeghna Basins. New York: United Nations University Press, 2001. Hukil Roomana,“India, China and Bangladesh: The Contentious Politics of the Brahmaputra River,” 9 March 2013. Sharma Nayan, “When the Brahmaputra Flooded,” 17 July 2012. “Emerging Sino-India Relations: Issues and Challenges”, National Maritime Foundation, 14 March 2012. Chellaney Brahma, “Ominous Rise of a Thirsty Dragon,” Centre for Policy Research, 12 August 2011. Kumar Dr Amit, “India China Trans-Boundary River Issues,” National Maritime Foundation, 12 December 2012.

Secutech Thailand 2013

the “all inclusive security fiesta” not to be missed! Secutech Thailand 2013 is returning to Bangkok International Trade and Exhibition Center the third time on 3 – 5 July, ready to showcase the most advanced security, fire, and safety technologies to the Thailand market! This year, Secutech is expected to bring in 120 exhibitors from around the world, including leading international brands such as AXIS, CHUBB, HIKVISION, HONEYWELL, PANASONIC, ROBERT BOSCH, SAMSUNG TECHWIN and VIVOTEK. An equal presence of heavy-weight local brands is guaranteed at the show ground, too, allowing visitors to build business partnerships with BANGKOK OA COMS, DIGITALCOM, DIGITAL FOCUS, GUTS, JES CQTEC, INDIGO DISTRIBUTION, TSOLUTIONS and many more! Furthermore, Secutech Thailand is expected to attract 6,000 quality buyers with purchasing power across sectors and around the world.

Show Highlights As the most professional exhibition for the security, fire and safety industry in Thailand, Secutech Thailand is never simply a trading platform, but also an educational platform for the hottest technologies and applications. Prior to the exhibition, Secutech have already reached out to new buyers across Thailand through home security seminar and industrial zone tours. At show, exhibitors bring in products ranging from HD IP and SDI cameras, DVR/ NVR, access control, RFID and biometrics, to intrusion alarms. Fire protection or disaster prevention equipment can be scouted, too. Also, alongside the show, there will be themed seminars featuring well-celebrated keynote speakers to share with the audience how to best protect and prosper with security and safety solutions. For example, the third edition of Global Digital Surveillance Forum Thailand is themed “HD surveillance- How to get the real HD quality you need”, and provides a well-rounded view on HD product selection for SIs and distributors. Likewise, given last year’s tremendous feedback on fire& safety seminar, this year, Secutech Thailand will assemble an even stronger speaker team from both public and private sectors to address to the urgent need to solve fire safety problems in Thailand.

Vertical solution seminars targeting retail, hotel and industrial zones 1. Retail Seminar- Supported by Thai Retailers Association, the most innovative retail solutions will be discussed through case studies. 2. Hotel Seminar- Secutech Thailand is to bring the finest hotel safety solutions that ensure visitors a safe and pleasant stay when visiting Thailand. 3. Industrial Zone Seminar- Prompting to 10 key industrial zones, the seminar will respond to the establishment of safety standards to decision makers running manufacturing bases in Thailand.

First ever retail simulation with HD surveillance! Incorporating HD surveillance into retail stores can not only deter shoplifting, but also improve operational efficiencies. Live demonstrations of security applications in retail simulated settings is a great chance for retailers to compare the different technologies that best suit their various needs. Secutech Thailand tackles all aspects of security, fire and safety issues in Thailand through forms of exhibition, seminars, and live demonstration--- it is an “all inclusive security fiesta” that you ought not to miss! For inquiry, please contact the organizer at stth@newera.messefrankfurt.com; or visit the official website at www.secutechthailand.com

neighbourhoodwatch

DIABOLICAL DESIGNS?

RESPONDING TO PROVOCATIVE

ACTS OF CHINA

ensions rose in the wake of the recent Chinese intrusion in Ladakh. The writer takes a look at China’s sustained hostile acts of encircling India, building-up Pakistan as a regional counterweight and supporting the Maoist insurgency. What are the chances of an India-China conflict and how would we fare? The writer asserts that a lot of water has flown down the Indus since 1962 and India is now no pushover. The Chinese Army has not seen any combat for the last 32 years. Besides India can play its Tibet and Xinjiang cards if China goes too far in supporting the Maoists and abetting Pakistan in waging its asymmetric war against India.

t was reported in the Indian media that on April 15, 2013, some 50 Chinese troops established a tented camp in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) Area of Ladakh, some 10 kilometers inside Indian Territory. It is not the first time it has happened. Even in 2011, as per media reports, then, Chinese troops had entered Indian border in Ladakh (Demochek village) and threatened our villagers and Border Roads Organisation persons to stop developmental activities. These are definitely provocative acts and India ought to take serious note of them.

In addition to this, in 2010, China had inducted around 10,000 troops in Gilgit area of Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). It is now being reported that Pakistan intends to lease the Northern Areas to China for development. Besides, recently China published a map, in which Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh have been shown as part of China. Chinese embassy in India has been issuing stapled visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh. China has been slowly and steadily posing a serious threat to India while posturing with friendly vibes. All these gestures of peace, friendship and dialogues are to keep India diverted, while China leapfrogs to be a military and economic power in the world without any competitive retardation from India. China is projecting herself as the “Only Future Super Power’ in

the world and therefore it would like India to fall in line. In fact, it does not relish a strong and united India, which can put spokes in her wheels of global ambition. There are strong indications of China covertly providing assistance to Maoists / Naxalites and other militant organisations of India. China, therefore, has been systematically undermining the integrity of India through her ‘outsourced war’ on India – outsourced to internal insurgents of India and Pakistan. It is evident from some recent Chinese actions that Chinese hegemony would soon torment Asia and India. Is India ready to take on China?

There are strong indications of China covertly providing assistance to Maoists / Naxalites and other militant organisations of India. China, therefore, has been systematically undermining the integrity of India through her ‘outsourced war’ on India – outsourced to internal insurgents of India and Pakistan. It is evident from some recent Chinese actions that Chinese hegemony would soon torment Asia and India. Is India ready to take on China? In an interview in 2011, General VK Singh, former Chief of Army Staff, Indian Army, had expressed a view that notwithstanding the current thaw with China, situation needed to be watched as intentions can change with the growth in capabilities. China, in September-October 2010, had inducted a PLA contingent into Gilgit-Baltistan region of PoK. China

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

has got another contract in Sri Lanka to build a port. Recent intrusion by Chinese troops in DBO sector of Ladakh, make General VK Singh sound prophetic. It now seems that General VK Singh had rightly made this observation, as China remains India’s biggest bugbear. We need to note some of these Chinese acts holistically: China is in illegal occupation of some 43,180 (38,000 + 5,180) sq km of Aksai Chin and Shaksgam valley in Jammu and Kashmir. China claims entire Arunachal Pradesh of India. Recently China had published a map, showing Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin as part of China. China has created a ‘String of Pearls’ around Indian coastline from Gwadar in Pakistan to Hambantota in Sri Lanka to deep water port in Sittwe, Myanmar and also in Thailand. It wants to dominate the sea routes of trade in the Indian Ocean and checkmate India in her trade with Africa and ASEAN. China has inducted a brigade sized force into FCNA of Pakistan with definite intent to checkmate India from any offensive designs in Northern Areas of Pakistan with purpose of choking Karakoram Highway. She has been always propping up Pakistan to ensure India remained tied down. Her nuclear supply deal with Pakistan ought to be seen as such.

Col Rajinder Singh (retd)

Chinese embassy, in 2010 had started issuing separate visas (stapled visas) to people of Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh to assert her stand that they were disputed. It is 180 degree turnaround from her earlier stand of bilateral issue between India and Pakistan. China has constructed rail / road communications in TAR (Tibetan Autonomous Region) and Xinjiang province close to Indian border. In the east, a road is under construction to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. China is helping Myanmar to get nuclear weapons with the help of North Korea. China tried to block aid to Arunachal Pradesh from Asian Development Bank. China strongly opposes India’s membership of UN Security Council. China supports Maoists militancy / insurgency and also separatist movements in Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura and Assam. This has been admitted by Maoists leaders on the TV channels. Paresh Barua of ULFA has recently been sheltered in China after he escaped from Bangladesh. What is worse is the fact that China was trying to discredit India and harm its economic interests. The reported case of sale of ‘Malarial Drug’ to Nigeria as “Made in India” is an evidence enough of its designs. Therefore, the peace gestures and peace-dialogues are only measures to mask her real intentions.

In order to deal with India, China has embarked upon a three-pronged strategy: Covert cyber war: China has been covertly conducting ‘Cyber Warfare’ against India, aimed at affecting the command and control systems by virus attack on Indian official computers, either to make them dysfunctional or hack them to extract vital information. Also, carry out a clandestine trade war to capture markets frequented by Indian goods – like the Nigerian Malaria drug incident, where spurious medicines were being sold under brand name India. China’s outsourced war on India: Pakistan is her important cog in the ‘Outsourced war’ on India. Besides, it would support Maoists / Naxalite and other militants of north-east, south and central India. The main purpose of the outsourced but low cost war on India is to: Engage Indian Army and cause attrition to it, thereby reducing her military potential to match Chinese military might; At opportune moments spark border crises to gauge our intentions, as highlighted by recent intrusion into DBO region of Ladakh. This is just to probe India. There could be series of such probing actions along 4,000 km of border from Arunachal Pradesh in the east to Ladakh in the west. Once India is adequately weakened, thrust fait accompli on her to accept Chinese version of border demarcation in Arunachal Pradesh. Encircle and contain India: Establish important sea ports in the Indian Ocean to dominate the sea routes to India through

The writer is an alumnus of National Defence Academy and commissioned into 3 Bihar battalion in June 1971. He is a graduate of Defence Services Staff College, Wellington and Army War College, Mhow. He has vast experience of handling militancy, terrorism and insurgency intimately for over 20 years in Nagaland, Assam, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir.

The basic threat of China today, therefore, remains three pronged, ie one, contain India by creating hostile environments in Indian neighbourhood and rolling back Indian influence into its borders; two, support Maoists / Naxalite insurgency and three, discredit and harm India's economic interests. It has already launched WoM (war by other means) or what some call an ‘Outsourced war’ on India

Do we really see a Chinese blitzkrieg to knock out India and annex Arunachal Pradesh? This gives rise to another question: Is China economically or militarily capable of delivering such a coup de grace on India?

India is a NO ‘Military push over’, as it was in 1962. China knows this very well. It cannot repeat 1962, however it might wish to. The Chinese Army that hit us in 1962 was combat hardened. The present PLA has not fought a war for the past 32 years

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

neighbourhoodwatch

DIABOLICAL DESIGNS?

‘String of Pearls’ policy. Cultivate hostile governments in India’s n e i g h b o u r h o o d l i k e N e p a l , Sri Lanka, Myanmar. Use Pakistan to keep India engaged in unwanted protracted military conflict and retard her economic progress. This is part of ‘Outsourced War strategy’.

Any conventional conflict with India might turn nuclear if India faces a defeat like 1962. India does have tactical nuclear weapons of low yields to be used in the mountainous regions of Himalayas and Sukhoi-30s have a much larger strike range China had been following a policy of encirclement of India both by sea and land. Its ‘string of pearls’ spreads from Gwadar in Pakistan through Hambantota in Sri Lanka to Myanmar. Besides, China had been busy in making foray into South Asia around India. It has Pakistan very friendly to it. The Maoist Nepal, despite temporary setback, also looks to China as a powerful backer. She had also cultivated Bangladesh and sees it as a major anti-India plank for seeding and supporting separatist movements in India’s north-east states. It supported Sri Lanka with weapons and equipment, during its final war with LTTE in the year 2008-09. Thus, India has been now confined to its own geographical limits. China has been supporting the military regime in Myanmar to go nuclear through covert assistance from North Korea. If it happens then, India would be fully flanked in the north, east and the west by nuclear states. It would be very dangerous situation for India. Why is China doing so? What are her worries of India? According to Mr Bhaskar Roy, an Indian Defence Analyst, there were three reasons for the same. First reason was the establishment of tri-Services command in the Andaman and development of Indian Navy to control the vital trade sea routes in the Indian Ocean. India’s counter piracy actions in conjunction with ASEAN countries irked China. Second was the nuclear test conducted by India and her resilience to hold against sanctions? It saw India emerging as a power to be reckoned with in the world. Third reason was

Indo-US nuclear deal and emerging Indo-US strategic partnership, thus threatening balance of power towards India. Do we really see a Chinese blitzkrieg to knock out India and annex Arunachal Pradesh? This gives rise to another question: is China economically or militarily capable of delivering such a coup de grace on India? While China might not be in a position to inflict “1962-type humiliation” on India, it can continue to provoke India through such acts as latest intrusion in DBO sector of Ladakh. If persisted with, such intrusions might culminate into a border incident in the near future, which would result into strained Sino-Indian relations for a considerable time. Strained relationship might also usher an era of cold war in this century. At the worse, it might lead to local conflicts on the border in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh or even in Himachal Pradesh. However one does not see a full scale war of the “1962-kind” unless there was shaky leadership in both or either country. Following reasons would amplify this line of thought: Firstly, India is a NO ‘Military pushover’, as it was in 1962. China knows this very well. It cannot repeat 1962, however it might wish to. The Chinese Army that hit us in 1962 was combat hardened. The present PLA has not fought a war for the past 32 years. Being a status quo nation we don’t have to worry much about ‘military boots’ China can muster against Indian troops, as long as they are well entrenched to defend themselves. Chinese cannot bring more than 2:1 superiority against India – which is not adequate in hard and rugged mountainous conditions, where you need to create some 7:1 superiority as an attacker against the conventional 3:1 in the plains for any reasonable chance of success. Secondly, the numerical superiority of China in manpower and equipment is a misnomer. Today’s wars are “Designer Wars” with 100 per cent surety of success. If you cannot ensure this, you do

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

not go to war. Qualitatively, Indian armament and equipment is in much healthier condition as compared to 50 per cent of modernisation of Chinese forces being still incomplete. China might have some 3,000 aircraft against India’s 790 or so. But it can only make some 1,176 aircraft effective in totality, which does not give it a decisive edge for a likely blitzkrieg. Also, Gulf War-2 has shown as to how the sheer numbers fail before technologically superior weapons. Chinese Navy too does not have an edge over Indian Navy despite the numbers being in favour of China. It has some 800 naval ships against India’s 150. Sixty per cent of Chinese naval ships are Second World War junk and India has all modern crafts with AWACs (Airborne Early Warning System). China might have 68 Submarines and India only 16 but India need not worry much about them. We have one aircraft carrier, VIRAT and second one is in the pipeline. China has recently added one. It is therefore not yet a Blue water navy. Our navy has to just defend our coastal areas including our economic zone in the Indian Ocean and we are capable of it. Indian Navy is a major hurdle for China for her projection of power in the Indian Ocean and the littoral states. If aircraft carrier, Gorshkov and some Nuclear Submarines from Russia come in we will be very well off. To carry out blitzkrieg China must create a decisive concentration of forces in Tibet for months together, which will not go unnoticed by India. Thirdly, any conventional conflict with India might turn nuclear if India faces a defeat like 1962. India does have tactical nuclear weapons of low yields to be used in the mountainous regions of Himalayas and Sukhoi-30s have a much larger strike range. Fourthly, with two more divisions raised in Arunachal Pradesh the Chinese numerical superiority in TIBET is negated. India has the reserve strike formations with flexible roles in mountains. Fifthly, with Pakistan engaged with the Taliban for some considerable time China does not yet enjoy the advantage of ‘two-front’ approach against India. However, we should be able to cope up with not only “Two” fronts but “Three” fronts, if threat

from internal security, like Maoists / Naxalites insurgency is also counted. This is what General VK Singh had hinted, in his interview. Sixthly, it is not going to be an all out war due to international pressure because of its likelihood of escalation into a nuclear conflagration. Arihant has provided the second strike capability to India and the world knows it. Our Agni-3 is an ICBM with a range of 2500-3000 km. Agni-V with a range beyond 5,000 km is in the pipeline. Thus, India is well equipped to take on China. In view of the above, though a Full Scale War with China is a remote possibility but one cannot rule out some local skirmishes in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh region or even Himachal Pradesh. Incidents like current intrusion can lead to such a confrontation. India cannot afford to slacken its vigil. The basic threat of China today, therefore, remains three pronged, ie one, contain India by creating hostile environments in Indian neighbourhood and rolling back Indian influence into its borders; two, support Maoists / Naxalite insurgency and three, discredit and harm India’s economic interests. It has already launched WoM (war by other means) or what some call an ‘Outsourced War’ on India. In the past, it had fuelled insurgencies in the north-east from Nagaland to Manipur and Tripura. It is now alleged that Paresh Barua, ULFA leader of Assam, has been staying In China for the past six to eight months. It, now, also supports Indian Naxalite movement and Indian Maoists. The aim of all this is to break up India into 20-30 smaller states. There was an interesting article on this by a Chinese defence strategist, Zhong Guo Zhan Lue Gang. The article was published in Chinese language on www.iiss.cn on August 08, 2009. An Indian defence analyst, DS Rajan, working with Chennai Center for China Studies (C3S), had analysed this article and observed: “The thrust of the article was to break up India into 20-30 states. To do so, it advocated usage of hostile neighbours such as Pakistan and Maoist Nepal and cultivation of other

countries around India. Besides, it sought to support insurgencies, such as ULFA and other north-east separatist movements. Strangely, it also suggested creating separatist movement in West Bengal with the help of Bangladesh”. From the internal security aspect, China is more vulnerable than India. India still holds the key to its ‘Tibet Headache’. Though India had long accepted Chinese sovereignty over Tibet, but it enjoys adequate leeway with Tibetan leaders in India. The riots in Tibet in 2008 should warn China of the consequences of playing with fire. Why shouldn’t India pay back in the same coin for Chinese support to the Maoists? Add to this the rising tension over the ownership of the Spratly group of islands in the South China Sea, which China has proclaimed as its sovereign territory. But other countries too have laid claims over them. Both Malaysia and the Philippines have reiterated their claims on some of the islets and reefs of this group which are in their continental shelves. The Philippines also enacted a law in March this year to make their claims official as per the UN Laws of the Seas. China refused to recognise these claims and cautioned Manila against it. The Spratly islands area is estimated to have rich gas deposits though no realistic survey has been made yet. The South China Sea is a very important strategic shipping route which Chinese want to control. It has proposed joint development of the resources there, but under the conditions its sovereignty over the area is accepted by the others. Some time back India helped Vietnam in exploring oil in these islets and China objected to it. Consider the problem brewing up in the Xinjiang province or the ‘East Turkistan’ as it was known before Chinese occupied it in 1949. The Uyghur Muslim minority of Xinjiang is really up in arms against the Han majority. It is said the Han population in East Turkistan in 1949 was only 6 per cent but it has now gone up to 41 per cent. Like the Uyghur Muslims Minority, there are 55 ‘nationalities’ or the ethnic groups other than the “Hans” in People’s Republic of China (PRC). In the TAR (Tibetan

Autonomous Region) and the Tibetan areas of Qinghai, Gansu, Yunnan and Sichuan of Qinghai province, Tibetans have become a demographic minority. Same has happened with Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region where now Hans form 80 per cent of the population and “Mongols” only 17 per cent. These demographic shifts are causing resentment. In fact, the Uyghur’s were getting more aggressive and they are represented by an organisation IMET (Islamic Movement of East Turkistan), which has links with Al-Qaeda. The activists of IMET are spread out in 14 countries. However the recent crisis in Urumqi was started by a more liberal and more secular organisation of Uyghur. This organisation, called WUC (World Uyghur Congress) is based in Washington and funded by NED (National Endowment for Democracy) a US based NGO which is funded by US Congress. WUC cadres are trained by Holland based UNPO (Unrepresented Nations and People’s Organisation). But Al-Qaeda trained IMET is more dangerous as it has its tentacles in Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Austria etc. Thus if China persists with her support to the Maoists she could be paid back in the same coin. In the light of all this, one does not expect major military conflict other than the exploitation of India’s vulnerabilities by China as part of WoM (war by other means). China has its vulnerabilities and India has to exploit them, as a tit for tat policy. It no more can allow China a free hand to exploit Indian vulnerabilities. Thus, there is a likelihood of a spurt in the verbal spats as part of the cold war. In fact, this century is the century of a cold war between two Asian Giants which has just begun. India can no more ignore deliberate Chinese acts of intruding into Indian territory. India has to respond not only by matching military actions but also by cultivating nations like Vietnam, Japan, Australia and USA. To counter China’s trump card of Pakistan, India has to pay more attention to Afghanistan. Come what may Pakistan must not have exclusive access to it.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

global security

NEW CALIPHATE?

Al-Qaeda and the Arab Spring

The End of an Era, or the Emergence of a New Threat?

he immediate objective of the Al-Qaeda was to drive all non-muslim forces from the areas that comprised the 7th century Caliphate, unify these lands and eventually re-establish that political entity and run it by the Islamic law (Sharia). The political forces opposing these goals were a series of dictatorships that were of a secular nature (Egypt, Syria, Iraq etc). These regimes became the prime target of Al-Qaeda as they constituted the barrier between the organisation and its objective. Even in the countries that toppled the established regimes by largely peaceful means, the following elections brought to power Islamic parties. This is a clear indication that although Al-Qaeda was not the driving force behind the Arab Spring, the dynamic behind it was indeed Islamic. Al-Qaeda in its part was quick to adapt its narrative to the shifting realities. The organisation claimed that the Arab Spring was possible due to them, since it was the group that had educated the Arabs to rise and oust the dictatorships. A thought- provoking view of the Arab Spring.

n order to understand how Al-Qaeda affects the Arab Spring and vice versa, we will need to root back to the ideological foundations of the terrorist organisation. The immediate objective of the group was to drive all non-muslim forces from the areas that comprised the 7th century Caliphate, unify these lands and eventually re-establish that political entity, and run it by the Islamic law (Sharia).i The political forces opposing these goals were a series of dictatorships that were of a secular nature (Egypt, Syria, Iraq etc)1. These regimes became the prime target of Al-Qaeda as they constituted the barrier between the organisation and its objective, becoming the main target of them during the 90s and henceforth.

Concerning the case of Libya besides the rise of radicalism, a further problem was created, the spillover of the crisis in Mali Al-Qaeda’s theory was that they would be the ‘vanguard party’ for the Islamic world to rally around them and that by violent strikes the dictators would fall and the people, free from their influence, would then

form the Caliphate. There were three main components in Al-Qaeda’s rhetoric. Firstly the dictators are the main enemy to the accomplishment of their goals, secondly the dictator’s fall would only be accomplished by armed struggle and finally this struggle would be conducted by a sub-societal group not by the whole of the society.

The Arab Spring On 18 December 2010 a Tunisian man immolates himself protesting for police corruption in Sidi Bouzid. This action creates a spiral effect that escalates to widespread demonstrations among the Arab world, calling for political reformation. This phenomenon, which became known as the “Arab Spring” initially was largely peaceful, namely in the cases of Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Bahrain, where the dictatorships were toppled via large scale demonstrations. In other countries the Arab Spring took an openly violent path, namely in the cases of Libya and Syria. In the case of Libya, a NATO intervention overthrew Col M Gaddafi in support to the Libyan insurgents after a

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

The writer holds a Master’s degree in International Relations and Strategy, with a specialisation in intelligence. His main research interests are intelligence and counterterrorism / counterinsurgency. He has served in the Greek Special Forces and in Greek NATO base and also participated in a series of seminars and lectures concerning political violence and international affairs.

violent civil war raged for a while, whereas in Syria the conflict also escalated in a civil war that draws to this day.

Al-Qaeda’s theory was that they would be the ‘vanguard party’ for the Islamic world to rally around them and that by violent strikes the dictators would fall and the people, free from their influence, would then form the Caliphate

The Arab Spring for Al-Qaeda Some analysts have claimed that the Arab Spring would be a severe blow to Al-Qaeda and to support that claim they have provided the following arguments.ii The first is that Al-Qaeda in its ideology, considered that society could not topple the dictatorships and not without violence. In that respect, Al-Qaeda was proven wrong in the cases of peaceful removal of the dictators we mentioned above. Furthermore the dictatorships served as a rallying banner for the organisation’s conscription, so losing them affects their ability to recruit new members. Finally Al-Qaeda was slow to endorse these public movements and in some cases the dictatorships fell without any kind of the organisation’s support. All of the above are true, but do not necessarily lead us to the right conclusions. Even in the countries that toppled the established regimes

1. These regimes were also called “near enemy”, to differentiate them from the “far enemy” that was the United States and collectively ‘the West’. i . More on Al-Qaeda ideology and objectives, see Devin R Springer, James L Regens, David N Edger, Islamic Radicalism and Global Jihad, Georgetown University Press, Washington DC, 2009, chapter 2. ii. See Donald Holbrook, “Al-Qaeda’s Response to the Arab Spring”, published in Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume 6, Issue 6, December 2012.

Ilias Papadopoulos

by largely peaceful means, the following elections brought to power Islamic parties.2 This is a clear indication that although Al-Qaeda was not the driving force behind the Arab Spring, the dynamic behind it was indeed Islamic, thus making the organisation and its ideology relevant.

in Palestine, while it also adopts anti-Israeli rhetoric. We cannot overlook that as the events unfolded, the organisation tried to shape the post-Spring status quo of the region by calling for the implementation of their traditional objective, the formation of the Caliphate and the establishment of Sharia law.

Al-Qaeda in its part was quick to adapt its narrative to the shifting realities. The organisation claimed that the Arab Spring was possible due to them, since it was the group that had educated the Arabs to rise and oust the dictatorships.iii They also claimed that it was their past attacks what restrained the Westerners from supporting the dictatorships, allowing eventually the Spring to be successful. These claims of course are far reaching and are not true, but they are also indicative of Al-Qaeda’s intention to reshape its narrative and to adapt to the new environment. Furthermore the organisation for the first time in its history tries to approach movements like the Islamic Brotherhood of Egypt and Hamas

So we conclude that in the past Al-Qaeda had a particular narrative that suited the status quo ante. As that shifts, so does the narrative of the terrorist organisation in their effort to remain relevant and to further their reach to the society. The objective of Al-Qaeda always was the formation of the Caliphate and the implementation of Sharia law within its boundaries. The main obstacle for that in the past were the dictatorships in the greater area. Now with them largely gone, the main obstacle becomes the yet-to-be-established democracy. For that reason the organisation’s rhetoric changes in order to reach the modern day audience, condemning democracy in the same way as it condemned the dictatorships in the past.

Even in the countries that toppled the established regimes by largely peaceful means, the following elections brought to power Islamic parties. This is a clear indication that although Al-Qaeda was not the driving force behind the Arab Spring, the dynamic behind it was indeed Islamic, thus making the organisation and its ideology relevant

2 . We refer to Egypt’s presidential elections of 2012 and Tunisia’s constituent assembly elections of 2011. iii. More on the Al-Qaeda’s adaption to the new situation forming see Shiraz Maher & Peter Neuman, “Al-Qaeda at the Crossroads: How the Terror Group is Responding to the Loss of its Leaders & the Arab Spring”, published in ICSR, August 2012.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

global security

NEW CALIPHATE?

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Tenure India 1 year 2 years 3 years In turn the Arab Spring provided a series of benefits to Al-Qaeda. The greatest of them is the treatment of jihadists in the new order. In the previous era, radical Islamists were treated as subversive elements of the society and were persecuted by the dictators for the sake of stability. As soon as the dictators were toppled, the political prisoners were freed, while the radicals that were active had a free pass to operate in their countries.iv Furthermore in the chaos that followed the uprisings, it was easier for Al-Qaeda to establish safe havens and to move weapons through the region. The benefits of Al-Qaeda become more obvious in cases where the Arab Spring was conducted by violent means, particularly the cases of Libya and Syria. In these cases Al-Qaeda was able to implement their traditional rhetoric of violent subversion and thus become crucial to the struggle. Particularly in the case of Syria, where its ruler Bashar al Assad is a member of a Shi’a sect, the Alawis, allows Al-Qaeda to call for a jihad against the ‘apostate’. While the conflict is yet to be decided, a sectarian element can clearly be discerned. Furthermore Syria neighbours a region of Iraq that had been proclaimed an Islamic State supported by Al-Qaeda in 2006. Although Al-Qaeda’s presence in Iraq had been seriously hampered

as a result of Gen D Petraeus doctrine, now in light of US forces withdrawal from the country, they seem to regain their foothold and support FSA’s actions in Syria. This means that if left unchecked, Al-Qaeda could create a unified area of operations between Syria and western Iraq, possibly proclaiming a new state that would serve as a stepping stone for the creation of the Caliphate.

Israel and the EU should be prepared to deal with a new status quo in the region, in which Al -Qaeda will play a more prominent role than she used to play in the past Concerning the case of Libya besides the rise of radicalism, a further problem was created, the spillover of the crisis in Mali. This was created as after the ending of the Libyan civil war, when foreign fighters and weaponry were moved in Mali to participate in a long standing civil conflict and pledging their cause to Al-Qaeda. The turmoil created; eventually lead in a French military intervention in the country supporting the legitimate Malian government that ruled in the South.v

Conclusion At this moment the Arab Spring has ended in all countries but Syria.

That doesn’t mean that we will not feel the aftershocks of it in the future, the case of Mali bears witness to that. Radicalism has acquired a foothold in the area, whether that was with or without the support of Al-Qaeda and this will affect the behaviour of these countries towards their non-militant neighbours, particularly Israel and the EU. The only open chapter in the Arab Spring, Syria, threatens to further destabilise the region. Besides the apparent strategic triangle of the Sunni FSA, the Alawi President Assad and Israel, the crisis revives the long standing question of western Iraqi partition. Also in Syria a series of foreign warbands are active under the FSA, with a direct affiliation to Al-Qaeda (eg the Al-Nusra Front). When the war is over regardless of the outcome, these bands will put to use the expertise they acquired in Syria. While mainly US efforts to control the political influence of the Islamic factions in Egypt and Libya could be partially useful, it will not be the solution. Israel and the EU should be prepared to deal with a new status quo in the region, in which Al-Qaeda will play a more prominent role than she used to play in the past.

iv. See Gilad Stern & Yoram Schweizer, “In Their Own Words: Al-Qaeda’s View of the Arab Spring”, published by Middle East Media Monitor, Foreign Policy Research Institute, September 2011. v . For more in the case of Mali, see “Extremism Spreads in West Africa and the Sahel”, IISS Strategic Comments, Volume 8, October 2012.

June 2013 Defence AND security alert

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JUNE 2013

VOLUME 4 ISSUE 9

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