Notes on the Macroeconomic Outlook J. Bradford DeLong U.C. Berkeley March 2011
The Largest Global Post-‐WWII Downturn
No SwiH Recovery in Employment
The Global Collapse of Risk Tolerance
The U.S. Unemployment Rate
The U.S. Employment-‐to-‐PopulaNon RaNo
If U.S. Unemployment Were Declining Now as Rapidly as It Declined from Its Reagan-‐Era Peak Then...
Expected 10-‐Year InflaNon in the U.S.
10-‐Year Safe and Risky Nominal Interest Rates in the in the U.S.
Vs and Ls
Developing Asia Proves More Keynesian and More Monetarist
Developing Asia Is Extraordinarily Hungry for Resources
Real Oil Prices
A SoluNon? A Model?
Yes: Canada as Norway
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