Preparing for Elections in Liberia
UNLocK 2010
UNLOCK | THE FUND FOR PEACE
Copyright Š 2011 The Fund for Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace Publication CR-11-13-UL
Contents
This report is the final report in a project designed to integrate data and perspectives from populations in conflictaffected zones into CAST, the FfP’s conflict assessment early warning methodology. The project is made possible by the National Endowment for Democracy. The statements and views are solely the responsibility of the Fund for Peace.
Introduction
5
Data and Methodology
6
Analysis of Key Counties
11
Election Issues
15
Conclusion
17
About The Fund for Peace
18
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
3
4
The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Introduction
E
lections are important for the renewal of the social contract between the people and their government. But that process of renewal can be rocky, as was vividly illustrated in Côte d’Ivoire in late 2010. In light of how
difficult elections can be, the Fund for Peace has been working with civil society in Nigeria, Liberia, and Uganda for improved local capacity in communication and conducting situational assessments in the run-up to 2011 elections. The Ugandan election took place on February 18, the Liberian election is scheduled for October, and the Nigerian election is scheduled for April, 2011. This report, the latest in a series of reports on Liberia, analyses events in the country during 2010 and examines some of the challenges that face Liberia in the lead-up to the 2011 presidential elections. It is the culmination of a one-year project carried out in partnership with Liberia Democracy Watch (LDW) and funded by National Endowment for Democracy (NED). Over the past year, reports from the UNLocK civil society network have highlighted land conflict as one of the greatest threats to peace in Liberia. In years past, there have been instances where fighting over land resulted in several deaths—IRIN estimates there have been 250 land dispute-related deaths in Liberia between 2003 and 2010. These conflicts have occurred at all levels, from the community to the county level. Aside from the violence these conflicts have already caused and the potential for further violence in the future, particularly where land issues overlap with ethnic and or religious tensions, it appears that they have the potential to impact the elections as well. As will be discussed later, disputes over county or other
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
administrative boundaries can cause confusion over the constituencies where residents of disputed areas should register to vote, paving the way for electionrelated conflicts or accusations that the process might be manipulated. Another major issue is deficiencies in infrastructure and basic public services, illustrated by the fact that Public Services was the most reported indicator (from the CAST indicator framework) during the year. Aside from the daily challenges this creates for Liberians and the frustrations it generates, this could impact how smoothly elections are conducted and could further marginalize populations in rural areas who have difficulty reaching registration and polling stations due to poor road conditions. Finally, and more specific to the upcoming elections, there is widespread distrust of the political establishment and accusations that that electoral process has already been manipulated during the voter registration process. An example of such manipulation is the bussing of voters to register in other districts to bolster support for particular politicians or to potentially influence the representation allotted to each county. There have also been reports that the number of polling stations is not proportionate to the population in some counties. Regardless of whether this is true, the popular perceptions could inflame tensions before, during and after the elections.
5
Data and Methodology
T
he Fund for Peace has been working through its UNLocK program with civil society in Nigeria, Liberia, and Uganda for improved local capacity in communication and conducting situational assessments in the run-up
to elections in each country in 2011 (in February in Uganda, April in Nigeria, and October in Liberia). Over the course of 2010, about 45 representatives from Liberian civil society, based throughout the country,
formed into a network for information sharing and conflict early warning. The Fund for Peace trained them in the conflict assessment methodology, CAST (Conflict Assessment System Tool), and created a
Reports by Indicator External Intervention
Factionalized Elites
Security Apparatus
Human Rights and Rule of Law
Public Services
State Legitimacy
Economic Pressures
Uneven Economic Development
Human Flight and Brain Drain
Group Grievance
Refugees and IDPs
100
Demographic Pressures
120
80
60
40
20
0
6
The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Data and Methodology
Number of Reports by County: February 2010-January 2011
80 60 40 20
0 Sinoe
River Gee
River Cess
Nimba
Montserrado
Maryland
Margibi
Lofa
Grand Kru
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
Grand Gedeh
A total of 535 reports were received through the UNLocK network between February 2010 and January
Grand Cape Mount
Findings
Grand Bassa
Gbarpolu
Bong
Bomi
National
website for the participants to enter incident and issue reports on conflict related indicators. Five workshops and several smaller follow-up meetings were held over the course of the year. The last workshop was a findings workshop held in Monrovia in January, attended by civil society representatives from around the country who had participated in previous training workshops during the year. During that workshop, The Fund for Peace staff and local participants reviewed the data from the entire year to see what pressures were of most concern to the network as reported by the participants, organized by indicator and county. Then the participants discussed which areas they felt had the highest risk of election violence, based on their analysis of the data and their knowledge of the conflict landscape. This report is a summary of those findings and discussions.
2011. Nationwide, Public Services received the most reports (117), followed by Demographic Pressures (101 reports), Human Rights (84) and State Legitimacy (70). These pressures are discussed in more detail below. By county, Montserrado (which includes the capital, Monrovia) received the most reports (95), followed by Bomi with 72 reports, Grand Bassa with 71 reports, and Grand Gedeh with 63 reports. The fact that some counties received more reports than others does not mean that pressures are necessarily higher in those areas—often it is a result of the fact that there may be more participants from those areas. This project does not intend to collect an even distribution of reports, however. Rather, it is an attempt to get a better sense of what sorts of problems civil society is concerned about in different geographic areas. It does not attempt to quantify the relative intensity of those problems. During the findings workshop, participants identified counties they believed needed more reports to better reflect concerns of civil society on the ground.
7
Data and Methodology
Demographic Pressures 101 reports: There were 41 reports received on land competition or land conflict during the year, broken out by county, making it one of the most reported measures. This issue was reported in 11 counties (Bomi, Gbarpolu, Grand Bassa, Grand Cape Mount, Lofa, Margibi, Montserrado, Nimba, River Cess, River Gee and Sinoe), making it one of the most widespread issues as well. The problems reported ranged from disputes between families or individuals, to larger disputes between towns, districts or counties. In some cases, fighting broke out, with injuries reported or people displaced. One issue that was reported multiple times, and that could have implications for the 2011 elections, is the ongoing dispute between Bomi and Gbarpolu Counties over several towns. The dispute created confusion during the voter registration process, due to uncertainty over which county residents of the disputed towns should register in, and registration was disrupted by protesters, who were allegedly encouraged by the Superintendent of Gbarpolu County. Besides competition of land, there were 20 reports of drug and narcotics abuse, ranging from drug use among the youth to reports of individuals trafficking large quantities of drugs. There were reports of involvement of members of the military and police as well. There were also 13 reports of natural disasters, mostly flooding or storm damage, that left people homeless in various counties including Montserrado, Nimba and Bong. In addition, there were reports of overcrowding in Monrovia, a lack of safe drinking water, particularly in rural counties, and coastal erosion in Buchanan.
8
Refugees/IDPs 8 reports: There were relatively few reports about refugees or IDPs, most of which were received in January 2011 and had to do with an influx of refugees from Cote d’Ivoire into Liberian counties adjacent to the Ivoirian border, such as Grand Gedeh, Nimba, Bong, River Gee and Maryland. There were also some reports of Liberians displaced by flooding during the year.
Group Grievance 24 reports: Ethnic tensions was the most frequently reported issue within the indicator for Group Grievance, with half (12) of the total reports received. These tensions were reported in Bomi, Bong, Gbarpolu, Grand Gedeh, Nimba and Lofa counties. Many of the reports had to do with tensions between the Mandingo and other ethnic groups such as the Loma, Krahn or Gola. These tensions appeared to escalate in some areas during the voter registration process (January 10-February 6, 2011).
Human Flight 15 reports: Reported issues relating to human flight included a “brain drain� as educated people left the country in search of better opportunities, leaving Liberia with a shortage of doctors, teachers and other professionals. There was also an internal migration of educated or skilled people from rural areas to Monrovia and other cities, exacerbating the lack of services in those areas. For instance, a new government hospital in Tappita, Nimba County, remained closed because doctors had not yet been found to staff it. Rural-urban migration was most reported in counties in the Southeast, including Maryland, Grand Kru, Grand Gedeh, River Cess and River Gee.
The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Data and Methodology
Uneven Development 21 reports: The most reported issue relating to uneven economic development (with 13 reports) was the issue of regions economically disadvantaged compared to other parts of the country. These reports highlighted a rural-urban divide, linked to the issue of brain drain (discussed above under Human Flight). Many of these reports came from counties in the Southeast, which are cut off from urban centers by poor roads and lack of infrastructure, particularly during the rainy season. Reports on regional disparities were received from Bomi, Bong, Grand Gedeh, Grand Kru, Maryland, Nimba, River Cess, River Gee and Sinoe Counties. Members of the network reported dissatisfaction with basic services available in those areas, including insufficient schools and hospitals, poor road conditions, and lack of economic opportunity. As might be expected, rural areas with several reports of uneven development also tended to have reports of problems with public services.
Economic Pressures 42 reports: There were 15 reports of rising unemployment, 8 of rising inflation, and 11 on issues of illicit economic activity such as illicit mining, drug trafficking or other types of smuggling. Illicit mining (mostly of gold) was reported in Grand Cape Mount, Grand Gedeh, and Sapo National Park in Sinoe County. In terms of major incidents of drug trafficking (distinct from issues of drug use and abuse, covered under the indicator for Demographic Pressures), at least 15 suspects were arrested during a raid in Kakata, Margibi County, with a quantity of drugs.
State Legitimacy 70 reports: With 20 reports, police corruption was the most reported problem within the indicator for State Legitimacy, followed by local government corruption with 13 reports, riots and demonstrations with 12 reports, executive branch corruption with 8 reports, and judicial corruption with 7 reports. Reports on police corruption mainly had to do with police soliciting bribes from motorists at checkpoints or demanding payment before beginning to investigate a crime. The most reports on police corruption (8) were from Grand Gedeh County, but the issue was reported in Bomi, Grand Bassa, Margibi, Montserrado, and Nimba Counties as well. Reports of corruption within local government frequently had to do with the alleged misuse of the county development funds. These issues were reported in Bomi, Bong, Gbarpolu, Grand Gedeh, and Nimba Counties. Several reports were also received on corruption in the education system, including teachers demanding bribes from students for grades. Several incidents of demonstrations and protests were reported, especially in Montserrado and Grand Bassa Counties. Most were strikes of workers demanding better pay or working conditions, but there was also a series of demonstrations in Monrovia by several hundred widows of soldiers who died during the war, demanding compensation from the government.
External Intervention 6 reports: Only 6 reports of external intervention were received during the year. One dealt with a land dispute along the Liberian-Guinean border in the town of Yeala, Lofa County. The remaining reports concerned the Liberian government’s dependence on outside assistance to provide basis services such as health care, education and roads. Although Liberia is
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
highly dependent on foreign aid, giving it a high level of external intervention, the low number of reports for this indicator can be explained by the fact that members of the network tend to report the issues that concern them most directly in their daily lives, and tend to report events and incidents more than longstanding conditions.
9
Data and Methodology
Public Services 117 reports: Public Services was the most reported indicator nationwide between February 2010 and January 2011. There were 27 reports of problems or inadequacies in the education system, 24 reports of problems with the health system, 24 reports of problems with the roads, and 19 reports of crime or inadequate policing. Reports were also received on a lack of access to sanitation and clean water, problems with the prison system, and inadequate fuel supply. Reported issues with the education system included a lack of schools or teachers, particularly in rural areas; corruption in the schools; and teachers going without pay. Complaints about the education system were received from Bomi, Bong, Gbarpolu, Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, Montserrado, Nimba, and River Gee Counties. This issue was exacerbated by the “brain drain” of trained professionals leaving for urban areas or other countries, as described under the indicator for human flight. Issues with the health system included a lack of access to hospitals or clinics, especially in rural areas; a lack of staff and supplies within the clinics; and hospitals that remained closed due to a shortage of doctors, such as the new hospital in Tappita, Nimba County. Complaints about the health system were received from Bomi, Bong, Grand Bassa, Grand Cape Mount, Grand Gedeh, Grand Kru, Margibi, Maryland, Montserrado, Nimba, and River Gee Counties. The road system was in poor shape throughout the country, but conditions were particularly poor in the Southeast and during the rainy season. Poor road conditions caused travelers to spend multiple days going even short distances, and prevented goods from reaching many areas, causing shortages and sharply rising prices. Residents of Maryland demonstrated in protest of the road conditions. Reports on the road system were received from Bomi, Bong, Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, Maryland, Montserrado and River Cess Counties.
10
Human Rights 84 reports: The indicator for human rights received the third largest number of reports with a total of 84 between February 2010 and January 2011. The most reported issues included sexual violence (25 reports), brutality (19 reports), child labor (10 reports), and gender-based human rights (9 reports). The abuses reported were not a matter of state-sponsored repression—instead, they were a result of a lack of capacity to uphold the rule of law and hold perpetrators to account. Human rights abuses were reported in 14 of the 15 counties: Bomi, Bong, Gbarpolu, Grand Bassa, Grand Cape Mount, Grand Gedeh, Lofa, Margibi, Maryland, Montserrado, Nimba, River Cess, River Gee and Sinoe.
Security Apparatus 22 reports: Reports on police impunity or abuse accounted for the majority of reports (14) for the security apparatus. Most reports concerned excessive use of force by the police and lack of investigation into police abuse. In addition, there were some reports of mob violence against suspected criminals as a result of a lack of confidence in the legal system. Reports on the security apparatus were received from Bong, Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, Lofa, Margibi, Maryland, Montserrado and Nimba Counties.
Factionalized Elites 25 reports: The majority of the reports relating to factionalized elections dealt with polarization among government officials. There were reports from several counties (Bomi, Bong, Grand Bassa and Nimba) that polarization between members of the County Legislative Caucuses were preventing legislation from being passed. In addition, Members of Parliament reportedly came to blows over the passage of the proposed Threshold Bill that would adjust representation of electoral constituencies based on the 2008 census.
The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Analysis of Key Counties
B
elow is an analysis of reports received from selected counties during the past year. Some counties were selected because the amount of data received allowed for a more in-depth analysis, while others were selected
because, although they may have received fewer reports, the pressures there seem to be greater. The following analysis is not intended as a comprehensive assessment of the social, economic and political
dynamics in each of these counties—rather, it presents the perspectives of local civil society representatives who participated in the project throughout the year.
The Indicators
Social
Political and Military Demographic Pressures
Legitimacy of the State
Refugees or Internally-Displaced Persons
Public Services
Group Grievance
Human Rights
Human Flight/Brain Drain
Security Apparatus
Economic Uneven Development
Factionalized Elites External Intervention
Economy
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
11
Analysis of Key Counties
Montserrado Montserrado Reports by Indicator: Feb. 2010-Jan. 2011 24 18
recommended that officials at the Central Bank of Liberia be charged with corruption. Six reports had to do with riots or demonstrations, including workers demanding back pay and war widows of the Armed Forces of Liberia demanding benefits.
12 6 0 See page 11 for a key to indicators
Montserrado County, which includes the capital of Monrovia and is home to over one third of the country’s population, received the most the most reports (95) between February 2010 and January 2011. The most reported indicators included Legitimacy of the State (23 reports), Public Services (17 reports), and Demographic Pressures (16 reports). Legitimacy of the State: Eight reports for this indicator had to do with corruption in the executive branch, including the arrests of three top officials from the Ministry of Finance for allegedly soliciting $10,000 bribes from the management of the Cocopa Rubber Plantation Company in Nimba County. In addition, the Liberia Anti Corruption Commission (LACC)
12
Public Services: There were four reports of burglary and armed robbery, including an alleged bank robbery. There were also complaints about a lack of sanitation, which left some areas of Monrovia flooded with dirty water and garbage, particularly during heavy rains. Other issues included an outbreak of violence among student political parties at the University of Liberia; complaints about traffic accidents, particularly those involving motorcyclists; and insufficient funding for the hospital. Demographic Pressures: There were five reports on natural disasters, including severe flooding and erosion that reportedly displaced hundreds of people. The problem of flooding appeared to be linked to overpopulation in Monrovia. The Minister of Public Works blamed some of the problems on the construction of houses in waterways and wetlands and the dumping of garbage in drains, preventing proper drainage during heavy rains.
The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Analysis of Key Counties
Bomi Bomi Reports by Indicator: Feb. 2010-Jan. 2011 24 18 12 6 0 See page 11 for a key to indicators
Bomi received the second largest number of reports of any county during the year. The most reported indicators were Demographic Pressures (20 reports), Human Rights (18 reports), and Public Services (13 reports).
Demographic Pressures, 13 reports were on land conflict. These conflicts were between families and towns within the county as well as a boundary dispute between Bomi and Gbarpolu Counties. The boundary dispute, in particular, could have implications for the elections because it is unclear in which county voters from the disputed areas would register. This issue is discussed in more detail under the section on elections. Human Rights: Most of the human rights reports had to do with sexual violence. There were also some reports of brutality, including police brutality, as well as child labor. Public Services: There were reports of an inadequate police presence in the county, a lack of schools (particularly high schools), a lack of health clinics, and poor access to water and sanitation.
Demographic Pressures: Within the indicator for
Lofa Lofa Reports by Indicator: Feb. 2010-Jan. 2011 8 6 4
a lack of participating civil society groups in the area, Lofa has the potential to be one of the most unstable areas of the country, particularly during the elections. There are existing ethnic tensions in northern Lofa, near Voinjama, that erupted in violence in February 2010, killing four people. Following that incident, tensions continued to be reported throughout the year
2 0
See page 11 for a key to indicators
Although Lofa County was not one of the counties generating the most reports due to its remoteness and
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
The most reported indicator in Lofa County was Group Grievance, with six reports, mostly about ethnic and religious tensions. Demographic Pressures received four reports, including reports of land conflicts along ethnic lines. Human Rights also received four reports.
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The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Election Issues
A
s voter registration took place between January 10 and February 6, 2011, evidence of several flashpoints emerged that could escalate and the elections approach in October.
Boundary Disputes Disputes over county boundaries became potential flashpoints as the registration process got underway because it was unclear in which county residents of disputed towns would register. Members of the network reported this problem in a few disputed towns along the border of Bomi and Gbarpolu counties. The Superintendent of Gbarpolu County was suspended for two weeks for allegedly encouraging a group of angry protesters, led by the “country devil,” to interrupt the voter registration process in the towns of Sawmill and Yomo, towns disputed between Bomi and Gbarpolu. The accusations were disputed by the Gbarpolu Legislative Caucus.
Government Capacity and Civic Education Other potential issues have to do with the government’s limited capacity to carry out the election process, as well as a lack of understanding among the general public of how the process will work. Members of the network reported that it has been difficult for people to reach registration centers in more remote areas, particularly in Grand Kru and Lofa counties, and that many people in rural areas don’t
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
have a sufficient understanding of the voting process. There were also complaints about a lack of capacity among registration officials, including problems spelling names.
Manipulation of the Electoral Process There have been reports of manipulation of the registration process, both on the part of the electoral commission and political parties or politicians. There were reports that politicians were trucking people to register in certain areas in order to consolidate their political influence there. Not only are such activities illegal, but there was also concern that voters, who would need to vote in the same place that they registered, might not have a means of getting to the polling stations on election day. There have also been a number of complaints about the National Elections Commission (NEC), including that the NEC has failed to respond to reports of bribery between officials of competing political parties, and that the NEC has allegedly named some parties for illegal campaigning while failing to name others in more glaring circumstances. This issue of redrawing political districts following the 2008 census, as required by the constitution, continues
15
Election Issues
to spark controversy. After political deadlock over the Threshold Bill, which would have determined representation based on the new census data, politicians now suspect that the total number of registered voters will be divided by 73 to determine the allocation of representatives, increasing the political importance of where voters register.
Citizenship of Voters Many have voiced concerns about foreigners entering the country to register to vote. This problem is compounded by the fact that many Liberians lack proper identification documents.
reports of people who had been denied registration based on a presumed lack of citizenship, including several hundred who were allegedly denied registration in Bong County based on their names, which indicated they might be foreign. This has led, in some areas, to particular groups feeling that they have been discriminated against in the registration process. For instance, statements have been made accusing Mandingoes from Guinea of attempting to register to vote in northern Lofa County, near Voinjama. This prompted outrage from Mandingoes, who claim that they are being discriminated against. The influx of tens of thousands of refugees from the instability in Cote d’Ivoire also has the potential to exacerbate these tensions.
During the voter registration process, there were many
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The Fund for Peace | UNLocK
Conclusion
L
iberia’s presidential elections in October, the second since the country’s 14 -year civil war ended in 2003, will be a major test of Liberia’s trajectory towards peace and stability. Although much progress has been made since
the end of the war towards establishing a functioning democracy and promoting economic development, a variety of social, economic and political pressures still remain and tensions could flare if the elections are not well managed and viewed as free, fair and transparent. In collaboration with local civil society organizations,
Preparing for Elections in Liberia
this report has attempted to highlight some of these pressures in order to better inform targeted interventions that could help to prevent the risk of violence and promote an election that contributes to sustainable security in Liberia.
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About The Fund for Peace
T
he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan , 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent war and alleviate the conditions that cause conflict.
We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the FfP focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. conceptual framework and a data gathering technique for measuring conflict risk.
What Makes FfP Unique •
The FfP adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states. We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.
•
We produce The Failed States Index, an annual ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that is published by Foreign Policy magazine.
Our Approach •
•
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The FfP has worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments, international organizations, the military , nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector. Combining social science techniques with information technology, we have produced the patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST), a content analysis software product that provides a
The FfP offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our activities relate to six interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early warning and State Building; Peace and Stability Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human Rights; and Sustainable Development.
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www.fundforpeace.org
CR-11-13-UL