UNLocK Report 5
Liberia: Elections and Beyond
June-November 2011
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
Copyright Š 2011 The Fund for Peace. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace.
The Fund for Peace Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Produced with the assistance of Liberia Democracy Watch
UNLocK Reports Series Editors Joelle Burbank Nate Haken Report Written by Erin Crandell Julie Andrus The Fund for Peace Publication FFP : CULRR1122 (Version 12F) Circulation: PUBLIC
The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org
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UNLocK Liberia
Overview
Introduction & Contents This report was compiled by Erin Crandell and Julie Andrus under the supervision of Nate Haken and Joelle Burbank at The Fund for Peace and in consultation with Liberia Democracy Watch. It is part of a series of reports that integrate data and perspectives from populations in conflict-affected zones into CAST, the FfP’s
conflict assessment early warning methodology. The project, the Early Warning and State Building Initiative, is made possible with funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York, Humanity United, and National Endowment for Democracy. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of The Fund for Peace.
Summary
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Methodology
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Analysis by Select Indicators
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Counties Analysis
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Looking Ahead
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About The Fund for Peace
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About Liberia Democracy Watch
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Comparative Periodic Analysis Reports by Indicator 50 Number of reports per indicator, June-November 2011
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External Intervention
3
Factionalized Elites
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Security Apparatus
0
Human Rights and Rule of Law
Public Services
State Legitimacy
Economic Pressures
Uneven Economic Development
Group Grievance
Refugees and IDPs
Demographic Pressures
Human Flight and Brain Drain
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UNLocK Liberia
Elections and Beyond
June-November, 2011 Incumbent president and recent Nobel laureate Ellen Johnson Sirleaf was declared the winner of the runoff election held on November 8th, 2011. After asserting that the October 8th election was not as fair as the United Nations and other international bodies declared it to be, opposition leader Winston Tubman and his supporters boycotted the run-off election, resulting in a turnout that was only about 37% of the voting age population, and almost half of the turnout in the October 8th election. This is the second election held in Liberia after years of civil war, and this is the first to be overseen by an independent Liberian election board. While international communities declared the election to be free
and fair, there were many reports gathered during the June to November period of intimidation of political opponents, election irregularities and government corruption. In this atmosphere, the boycott places this election in an even more precarious position in terms of how legitimate the population views it. Liberia also faces many other issues with public services and demographic pressures, including high rates of violent crime and problems within the healthcare and education systems. These problems will continue to affect Liberia’s ability to progress as a democratic state, and could cause tension between the people and the new government.
This report, the fifth in a series of publications on Liberia, compiles incidents submitted by Liberian civil society organizations participating in the UNLocK Liberia early warning network from JuneNovember 2011. Organized by county, incidents are categorized by Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) indicators and reflect the pressures currently weighing on Liberia, as viewed by participating civil society members. Concerns over availability of public services, violent crime, and state legitimacy top the list. The objective of this publication is to provide a snapshot of the conflict landscape within Liberia for use by relevant actors in preventing future conflict.
Findings The network generated reports from UNLocK Liberia participants over a six month period (June 1 2011-November 18 2011) highlighting political, social and economic pressures at the local and county levels. This report contains a summary of civil society field reports, by CAST indicator, with maps identifying the counties about which reports were submitted. Those counties are indicated in red. A red background should not be taken to mean that those counties have more risk factors that those that are not highlighted. The lack of a red background merely indicates that UNLocK generated no data from those areas. Rather, the red counties should be interpreted as a measure of civil society engagement and used as a barometer for addressing the problems particular to that region.
Broken down by indicator and county, there were 137 total reports for this time period. Some of the reports fell under multiple categories and are listed as such. Public Services (39 reports) and State Legitimacy (33 reports) were the most frequently reported concerns of the 12 CAST indicators, followed by Demographic Pressures (25 incidents), Security Apparatus (16 incidents), Human Rights (12 incidents), Economic Pressures (7 incidents), Human Flight (7 incidents), Group Grievance (6 incidents), Uneven Development (4 incidents), Refugees and IDPs (3 incidents), Fractionalized Elites (1 incident), and External Intervention (1 incident). Geographically,
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the
highest
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number
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reports were about issues in Montserrado County (64), followed by Nimba County (24). Each of the remaining 13 counties had between one and four reports for this period. It is important to note that while this report reflects incidents of conflict and instability it is not meant to act as a comprehensive tally. Rather it is a reflection of civil society participation in the Liberian conflict early warning network during this period and the challenges that participating organizations and individuals chose to highlight.
UNLocK Liberia
Methodology
About the Program From March 2010-November 2011 the Fund for Peace conducted eight conflict assessment workshops in partnership with Liberian Democracy Watch. In Bong, Bomi, Grand Bassa, Grand Gedeh, Nimba, and Lofa Counties as well as Monrovia, individuals and civil society organizations were trained in a conflict assessment methodology utilizing FfP’s Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) framework. Adapted for relevance to Liberia’s local conflict landscape, CAST
equips participants with the tools to assess, anticipate, and prevent violent conflict. Since the UNLocK Early Warning System was established in 2008 participants have been submitting incident reports to a password protected database organized by date, location and indicator. These incident reports are then compiled to generate an image of the conflict landscape in Liberia which is then used to anticipate and respond
to the major pressures which could lead to conflict. In the short term this information acts as a warning; allowing people to avoid potential conflict zones. More broadly, this information allows government and civil society to utilize conflict sensitive approaches to development and policy. As of this publication over 800 incident reports had been filed representing participation from at least 80 civil society organizations.
Indicators The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought include social, economic, and political/military pressures on the state:
Social
Economic
Political/Military
Demographic Pressures
Uneven Development
Legitimacy of the State
Refugees or Displaced Persons
Economy
Public Services
Group Grievance
Human Rights
Human Flight/Brain Drain
Security Apparatus Factionalized Elites External Intervention
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Analysis
Select Indicators Reported Demographic Pressures Liberia
other parts of the country will help to counter the issue (County 11).
Demographic Pressures was the fifth most common reported incidence category during this period. There were reports relating to land conflict, sanitation and population pressures.
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•
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12 11 6
There is a land comflict in Bomi (County 1) and Grand Cape Mount (County 5) around the Sime concession of palm and rubber plantations. The dispute was reported to be between the concession and the surrounding communities.
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Tensions over land were reported in Ganta, Nimba (Country 12) between the Gio and Mandingo ethnic groups.
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Rural-urban migration is reported to be a problem in Monrovia. Some hope that the new practice of building universities in
Two communities have been affected by waterborne diseases in St. Paul River (County 11). Rapid population growth in Monrovia has overwhelmed urban planning and infrastructure, which has contributed to poor sanitation, flooding and other problems (County 11).
•
Water scarcity was reported Gardnersville community, Monrovia, during the dry season (County 11).
Reported Pressures on the Security Apparatus Liberia
5 12 1
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Issues relating to the Security Apparatus in Liberia were the fourth most reported issue area. The most frequently reported problem was general acts of violence (8 reports). There were also reports of police abuse and impunity (3 reports) and problems with non-state armed groups (3 reports).
•
Unexploded ordinance was discovered in Sasstown, Louisiana in Bomi (County 1).
•
An arms cache was found in Bo Waterside in Grand Cape Mount (County 5) in October.
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•
On September 19, 2011, a Special Security Service (SSS) officer was shot dead during President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s visit in Ganta, Nimba County (County 12).
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A suspected armed robber was killed by the police after several gunfire shots on Johnson Street in Montserrado (County 11) at midnight.
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy State Legitimacy was the second most reported issue area with 33 incidents during this period. These reports largely had to do with issues surrounding the election. The most-reported issues were Government Corruption (5 reports), Intimidation of Political Opposition (7 reports), Riots and Protests (8 reports), and Election Irregularities (5 reports). Government Corruption reports featured incidents involving vote buying and corruption related to the election, as well as other incidents of corruption.
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In Montserrado (County 11), the Former Liberia Party Chairman, Mr. Israel Akinsaya was accused of issuing fake checks totaling more than US2.5 million to Lonestar Cell Company and resigned from the party over the incident.
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The Unity Party (UP) sub-office in District # 6, ELWA community in Monteserrado (County 11) was allegedly burned down by unknown persons.
Three suspects were arrested in Montserrado (County 11) for the burning of a car belonging to Mr. Eugene Nagbe, Deputy Campaign Chairman of Unity Party (UP).
Liberia 8
In Montserrado (County 11), the Director General of the Liberia Broadcasting System (LBS), Mr. A. Ambrose Nmah, was reportedly asked to resign for allegedly airing on the state radio a live broadcast of a news conference hosted by opposition CDC.
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•
•
•
In Nimba (County 12), there were reports that a political candidate transported people from Monrovia to Yarwein Mensonnoh in Nimba County to vote for him. In Montserrado (County 12), nine opposition political parties have staged protests against the current election final tallying being carried out by the National Elections Commission (NEC). The government reportedly used the July 26 independence celebration in Lofa County (County 8) to dedicate two sub-offices of the ruling party in
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There were also a number of reported incidents of election irregularities, although overall, international observers declared the elections to be generally free and fair.
A Judge of the Nimba Court (County 12) was reportedly bribed to rule unfairly for a land dispute case.
There were multiple complaints of alleged intimidation of political parties or candidates prior to the recent election, both from the ruling party and the opposition party.
•
•
Voinjama and Zorzor in an apparent abuse of government resources for political purposes. There were a number of protests during this period. Some were election related, while others were about work and salary conditions.
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Employees of the National Investment Commissions (NEC) staged a protest to increase salary in Montserrado (Country 11).
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The citizens of District #1, Nimba County (County 12) protested for Hon. Noah R. Kiador to resign his Parliament seat.
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on Public Services •
Liberia
1
The second most reported category was a string of incidents in the prison system, including a mass breakout, abuses, and inadequate services.
12 11 4
•
7
•
Reports indicate high levels of crime in Liberia, including notable shootings, a bomb discovery and a mass prison breakout. Crime/Policing incidents made up almost two-thirds of the Public Services incidents between June and October. Liberia has also continued to have problems with services and infrastructure such as road, health and education systems. Incidents occurred in Bomi (County 1), Grand Bassa (County 4), Grand Kru (County 7), Montserrado (County 11), Nimba (County 12), and River Gee (County 14). Nineteen of the reports received pertained to Crime and Policing, including robberies, shootings and violence. A teacher at a school in Congo Town was allegedly beaten to death by unknown men. (County 11)
•
The
Buchanan
Cent ral
Prison
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Ganta citizens (County 12) protested to the government of Liberia at a hospital where people died from lack of heath care.
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Even after education reform, some children remain the main breadwinners in their families and are not attending schools in Montserrado (County 11).
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Citizens
In Montserrado (County 11) there are often no medical facilities in the prisons and there are disease outbreaks and very poor living conditions.
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Once suspects are sent to jail, their rights are often denied, even for pretrial detainees. There were reports of pre-trial detainees being held for almost four years in Montserrado (County 11).
There were many reports that inadequate road systems, creating serious obstacles for people trying to reach polling stations during the election.
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A bridge linking Sanniquelle to Yekapa in Nimba County has collapsed due to heavy rainfall. (County 12)
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Two bridges on the road connecting Kpam town and Tunuelin town in Nimba are badly damaged due to heavy rain during the past rainy season, making it difficult for farmers in that area to take their goods to Kpain Market. (County 12)
A police officer of the Liberia National Police was reportedly arrested with a group of armed robberies on Somalia Drive, Barnesville Community. ( County 11)
Liberia still faces troubles providing basic education, water and health services to its citizens.
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complained
that
Yarwein-
Mehnsohnneh, Nimba (County 12) lacked a high school and that children were only able to attend school up to 9th grade.
experienced a large prison break, with more than 60 prisoners escaping. (County 4)
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Citizens of Upper Caldwell and Sasstown communities complained of a presence of armed gang harassing people at night. (County 1)
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There were not enough text books and school materials for high school students in Ganta (County 12) and the schools are not equipped with libraries.
Analysis: Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on Human Rights Over three quarters of the Human Rights related incidents reported between June and October, 2011 were infringements on media freedom, many of which were suspected to be politically motivated in the context of the election. The local offices of some media outlets were attacked, as were journalists reporting on political figures. There were also three Gender Based Human Rights incidents reported and one incident of sexual violence. Incidents were reported in Nimba (County 12), Montserrado (County 11) and Grand Gedeh (County 6). There were multiple reports that Vice standard bearer of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC), Amb. George M. Weah ordered a Liberian journalist to delete
a photo taken during the party campaign visit to Ganta, Nimba (County 12). The photo reportedly involved a man who was hit and injured by a CDC convoy. The Love FM Radio on 10th Street, Sinkor was attacked by unknown men in Monrovia, Montserrado (County 11). Two journalists of the SKY Communication Radio were reportedly attacked by supporters of the Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) in the town of Lugee, Zwedru. (County 6) Two Liberian journalists were allegedly attacked by security guards on duty at the residence of the Presidential candidate, Rev. Kennedy G. Sandy of the Liberia Transformation Party (LTP) in Old Road community. (County 11)
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Liberia
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Analysis
The Counties
Number of Reports by County
Liberia Lofa
Bomi Montserrado
Montserrado
Gbarpolu M GP
60 Bong
Nimba
bi gi ar M Grand
Bassa R
C er iv
s es
Grand Gedeh
River Gee
30
National
Sinoe
River Gee
River Cess
Nimba
Maryland
Margibi
Lofa
Grand Kru
Gbarpolu
0
Bong
Bomi
Maryland
Grand Gedeh
Kru
Grand Bassa
Gra nd
Grand Cape Mount
Sinoe
Montserrado County Liberia
Montserrado
Montserrado is located on the coast in the North West of Liberia and is host to Liberia’s capital City, Monrovia. Montserrado had the most reported incidents, accounting for 64 of the 116 reports. The highest reported category was State Legitimacy (20 reports), followed by Demographic Pressures (15 reports), Public Services (11 reports), Human Rights (7 reports), Security Apparatus (7 reports), Economic Pressures (5 reports), Group Grievance (3 reports), and External Intervention, Fractionalization of Elites, and Human Flight (1 report each). Monrovia: Monrovia accounted the vast majority of reports in Montserrado with 62 of the 64
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reports. State Legitimacy mostly had to do with election irregularities and political intimidation and corruption. Demographic Pressures reports largely related to urbanization and population density problems, though there were reports relating to issues such as Alcoholism, Drugs, Land Competition, Youth Bulge, and Orphans as well. There were issues with public services, largely relating to insufficient policing, as well as lack of access to health care and education. There were also reports of Human Rights abuses relating to media intimidation surrounding the election. There were a number of reports of police abuse and violent crime.
Analysis: Counties
A suspected armed robber was killed by the police after several gunfire shots on Johnson Street at midnight. Six (6) Political parties refused to sign the Code of Conduct of Liberia National Police (LNP). The Director General of the Liberia Broadcasting System (LBS), Mr. A. Armbrose Nmah, was reportedly asked to resign for allegedly airing on the state radio a live broadcast of a news conference hosted by opposition CDC. Monrovia cannot withstand the population influx--infrastructure is insufficient. High rates of teen pregnancy are leading to abandoned children and there is a lack of government support for the orphanages.
There has been a high increase in inflation in the past year. This is partly due to external influences on the economy There is a lack of awareness of the potential impacts that oil exploration could have on Liberia. A list of opposition individuals accused of wanted to promote war in the country was circulated in the country. The source of the list was unknown. Teaching of the bible in public schools, which is technically prohibited, is a source of religious tension in some areas because the laws are poorly understood and the practice continues. Some fear the recent law passed to change legislative elections to simple majorities could exacerbate ethnic
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tensions because minorities could feel unrepresented. The police lack the means to reach distant areas and need to ask for support for transport. They sometimes have vehicles but no fuel. There were reports of abuse of government resources during the campaign period, both by the Unity Party and the CDC. Once suspects are sent to jail, their rights are often denied, even for pre-trial detainees.
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Analysis: Counties
Nimba County Located in the northern most point of Liberia, Lofa County is the country’s fourth most populous region. Spanning six districts, Lofa County’s primary challenges include homelessness, infrastructure development, violent crime, police corruption and tribal competition. With 67 out of the total 209 reports, Lofa County represents the most incidents reported from a single county for UNLocK Liberia’s February-May 2011 period. This is a marked increase from the number of reports received from Lofa County in the previous period and is mostly the result of an UNLocK workshop held in Voinjama in April, in which many of the reports were collected. Although the spike in reporting does not necessarily signal an increase in the pressures facing Lofa, it does allow for a more in-depth analysis of events in that county. One event that stood out was a devastating storm that hit Lofa County in early February. Leaving over 200 people dead and many more homeless, the storm accounted for nine separate incident reports on its own. Vionjama In Voinjama homelessness and dilapidated infrastructure were reported.
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At the epicenter of the devastating storm which hit Lofa County in early February Voinjama is left to combat an ever growing homeless population. Already high due to demolition associated with road construction, the storm left many more homes uninhabitable.
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Some hand pumps reportedly ran dry in Voinjama, making it difficult for residents to access clean water and sparking
competition among residents for use of the remaining pumps.
Liberia
Zorzor In Zorzor ethnic tensions and possible trafficking of children were reported.
•
Tensions between the Lorma and Mandingo groups, which are a problem throughout Lofa County, were the subject of multiple reports from Zorzor District.
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Multiple reports were received about an alleged incident of child trafficking in Zorzor, in which approximately 40 children were found in the back of a truck, with the driver claiming they were being taken for Islamic study. The driver was taken into custody.
Quardu-Gboni In Quardu-Gboni concerns with public services and infrastructure were reported.
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Participants complained about the lack of a high school in Quardu-Gboni District.
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Quardu-Bondi was hit by the same storm which devastated Voinjama in early February and 16 homes were reportedly washed away.
Foya Foya reported concerns with crime and infrastructure.
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A school teacher was murdered, prompting demonstrations by his students.
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Residents of the town of Ngeiga in Foya District complained to UNMIL that they are desperately in need of viable roadways.
Kolahun Land conflict, possibly with an dimension, was reported in Kolahun.
•
ethnic
There reportedly was a land use dispute between the people of the Wulukoha clan and residents of Johnny Town, Voinjama.
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Nimba
UNLocK Liberia
Conclusion
Looking Ahead According to International observers President Johnson Sirleaf’s victory in the elections, and subsequent run-offs, was free and fair. However, the fact that only 37% of the population participated in the election is extremely significant. When opposition leader Tubman urged his voters to boycott the run-off after incumbent President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf failed to receive over fifty percent of the vote, it showed that there is a large portion of the population that still has no faith in democratic processes in Liberia, even with a leader as progressive and internationally lauded as President Johnson Sirleaf. While these concerns are natural, given the relatively young state of the Liberian democracy, some of these concerns stem from the state’s inability to effectively provide public services, including education, health and a working road system. The reports received during this time period
noted an unmet need in public services, which is keeping Liberia from developing. The Liberian police force also has a long way to go in terms of upholding the laws and providing security. Crime rates remain high and there have been numerous reports of police corruption and brutality. If any government is to have the support of its populace, they must ensure that their citizens’ needs are met. While the Liberian election was not as bloody or contested as other elections that occurred this year, there were quite a few reports of media control and violence against members of the media. Maintaining a free and fair press should be a priority for the National Elections Commission (NEC) in the next election because a strong and independent media is crucial to having an election that is received as fair and balanced.
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It will also be necessary to continue overall reforms of the NEC to further distance it from the incumbent administration and make it the independent body that it reports itself to be, in order to prevent further conflict in the next election. While the support of international observers like the Carter Center is extremely useful, the existence of a local, independent body is an important step to further establishing democracy in Liberia. President Johnson Sirleaf may find it difficult to try and promote change and govern a population that for the most part did not support her party in the elections. Under current Liberian election regulations this will be President Johnson Sirleaf’s last term as president, so it will be interesting to see in the next election in 2017 how the country will transition from twelve years under President Johnson Sirleaf and the Unity Party.
About
The Fund for Peace
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Transnational Threats
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) nonprofit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security. We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and
Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security international organizations, the military, nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector.
approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers. The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states. We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers. We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments,
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective: to promote sustainable security and the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our programs fall into three primary thematic areas:
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Conflict Early Warning and Assessment; Transnational Threats; and Sustainable Security.
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About
Liberia Democracy Watch
Liberia Democracy Watch was established in late 1996 in the build up to the 1997 elections in Liberia. The organization was founded by a group of university graduates envisioned a society devoid of socio-political abuses, corruption and the weaning respect for the rule of law. As part of its first engagement, LDW was a founding member of the elections observatory group: Liberia Elections Observers Network (LEON), a
collection of local elections observers group funded by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) which comprised the Catholic Justice and Peace Commission (JPC), FOCUS and many other local organizations. Between 1997 and 2005, Liberia was wrought with socio-political and economic abuses necessitating the shift to human rights and related issues.
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