Making it Happen
www.derrystrabane.com/communityplanning
Making it Happen the journey so far
John Kelpie Chief Executive Derry City and Strabane District Council
Plenary Objectives • Update on the progress in developing our Community Plan; • Receive feedback from the thematic working groups; • Outline our proposed next steps and timelines in developing our strategic plan; • Launch our local Community Planning process.
Our Co-Design Process to Date
Council Elected in May 2014
Stakeholder Plenaries July 2014 Sept 2014 Feb 2015 June 2015
Task & Finish Working Groups
Statutory Partner Workshops
Citizen Survey
20 Jan 15
31 Mar 15
08 May 15
18 Nov 15
Baseline data and evidence base
20 Nov 14
18 Nov 15
8 Working Groups
Cross Cutting: Good Relations Sustainability Rural Development Communications
Children & Young People
Our Emerging
Draft Outcomes
Community Development – Outcomes Aim: To improve the quality of life of all our people now and in the future
We are supported to be more actively engaged and involved in the life of our community and can influence the decisions which affect out lives.
We live within more cohesive communities and have access to good quality services and facilities.
Our community and voluntary groups are more resilient and sustainable.
Health and Well-Being– Outcomes Aim: To improve the quality of life of all our people now and in the future
We have improved physical health, mental health and emotional wellbeing and health inequalities have been reduced.
We are more physically active.
We are better supported to age well and live independently.
Children and Young People – Outcomes Aim: To improve the quality of life of all our people now and in the future
Our children and young people feel safer, healthier and more respected and included.
Our children and young people have enhanced opportunities to fully realise their potential to become active, responsible citizens.
Entrepreneurship, Enterprise and Regional Competitiveness Aim: To grow and sustain our economy to create more and better employment opportunities for everyone.
We have grown our economic base by being a more entrepreneurial and creative region which is business ready and we have a compelling investment proposition. We are better economically connected – regionally, nationally and internationally and significantly contribute to the economy on both sides of the border. We have achieved competitive advantage and international recognition by being more specialised, more innovative and more productive in our priority sectors and specialist clusters.
Education and Skills Aim: To grow and sustain our economy to create more and better employment opportunities for everyone.
Our young people have improved levels of attainment from primary to post primary and a desire for life long learning. We have increased access to more learning opportunities through the expansion of our higher and further learning institutions.
We have increased and better labour market opportunities with a simplified employment and skills system to assist us obtaining and sustaining work.
We have a better skilled, educated and flexible work force to stimulate productivity and improve competitiveness.
Tourism, Arts and Culture Aim: To grow and sustain our economy to create more and better employment opportunities for everyone.
We live in the cultural destination of choice on the island of Ireland, championing our people and place by delivering world-class visitor experiences.
Physical and Environmental Regeneration Aim: To live in a low carbon, sustainably designed and connected region.
We benefit from more well-designed, maintained and utilised high quality public realm, greenways and public spaces. Our local development plan contributes to the development of sustainable, safe and cohesive communities and to meeting the housing need and demand of all our citizens. We are supported to practice environmental stewardship through a programme of active learning, participation and volunteering. Our built and natural heritage assets are better protected, enhanced and shared so we increase biodiversity, attract economic growth and improve social well-being.
Energy, Infrastructure and Transport Aim: To live in a low carbon, sustainably designed and connected region.
We are recognised as a low carbon region with a more secure and affordable energy supply. Resources are used for as long as possible, have maximum value extracted from them and are recovered and regenerated at the end of their service life to achieve a Zero Waste circular economy.
We have a more integrated, sustainable and accessible transport system, which maximises connectivity, supports economic growth and improves safety, social inclusion and quality of life. We have access to clear drinking water, our waste water is treated to protect the environment and human health and our storm water is more effectively managed to minimise disruption to essential facilities.
Examples of our emerging
Draft Actions
Social pillar Emerging Action:
We will work towards maximising the delivery of our district wide sports strategy and within phase 1 will have developed two regional facilities, one in the Westbank of Derry and one in the town of Strabane.
Follow us on Twitter: @dcsdcouncil
Economic pillar Emerging Action:
Expansion of Ulster University campus at Magee site in Derry
Like us on Facebook: Derry City & Strabane District Council
Environmental pillar Emerging Actions:
Strategic road network including: Delivery of A5 Delivery of A6
Visit us at: www.derrystrabane.com
Transition Community Planning Partnership Arrangements
• Political Reps, Statutory Partners, Departments and other key partners; • Meet 3-4 times per year; • Equality Group to be established.
Local Community Plans are LIVE!
Sign up now:
www.derrystrabane.com/localplans
Local Community Planning Groups • 8 local groups (7 aligned to District Electoral Areas and 1 for Strabane Town);
• To draft a Local Community Plan based on local needs and our strategic outcomes; • Chairs sit on Transition Community Planning Partnership; • First workshops to be held in Feb 2016; • Online recruitment process live now!
Community Planning why it is important for me.
Georgina Kee Sollus Centre
Panel Discussion
Ciara Ferguson
Gavin Killeen
Paul McNaught
Social Pillar
Economic Pillar
Environmental Pillar
Making it happen by addressing inequality
Ellen Cavanagh Derry City and Strabane District Council
Context
- Equality/Overarching Concept - Statutory Duties
- Good Practice
Embedding Equality Audit of Inequalities
Equality & Disability Action Plans
Strategic Community Plan Council & Stakeholder Plans
Enhanced Equality Impact Assessment
Our Approach
- Evidence (Primary & Secondary) - Direct Engagement
- Consultation
What will the Impact Assessment do? Examine - Aims, objectives and actions - Consider evidence Assess Impacts - S75 groups - Multiple identities - Social and rural need - Cross cutting themes Identify - Measures to mitigate any adverse impact - Alternatives to better achieve equality of opportunity
Monitoring, Review and Adjustment
- Impacts (part of EQIA) - Equality and disability action plans - Linkages to Council and stakeholder plans
Equality Group Benefits - Local experiences - Evidence - Gaps/differences Role - Identification of impacts/issues - Mitigation and alternatives - Identification of indicators
Making it happen by economic profiling
Professor Neil Gibson Ulster University Economic Policy Centre
The context for the Community Plan – aspiring to success Professor Neil Gibson: Director, Economic Policy Centre December 2015 ulster.ac.uk
Agenda • The baseline outlook – a need to exceed expectations • The Derry / Strabane labour market outlook • The Community Plan – how will UUEPC help? • Next steps
• Baseline outlook- a need to exceed
expectations
ulster.ac.uk
NI indicators pointing in the right direction (mainly)
Source: Numerous (Q2 2015)
Labour market has begun to pick up • •
NI employment: 25,000 jobs shy of peak levels in 08 UK employment: 1.5M jobs above peak levels in 08
• NI self-employment: 17,000 jobs shy of peak levels in 08 • UK employment: 665,000 jobs above peak levels in 08
Source: ONS
NI labour market was hit harder, but is climbing faster Employment change, NI, 2012-15 NI actual employment
NI Employment at UK growth rate
10 8
(000's)
6 4
10
• NI has created 48,000 jobs in 3 years
8
• Had NI followed UK sectoral growth patterns there would only have been 37,000 jobs
6 4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
A shift to domestic strength
Note: NI employment fell by 80,000 (9.1% of total employment) UK employment fell by 790,000 (2.5% of total employment)
Source: UUEPC (Autumn 2015)
But outlook suggests tougher times ahead GVA (% p.a.) Employment (000's)
2015 1.9% 19
Northern Ireland forecast 2016 2017 1.5% 1.5% 8 4
2018 1.5% 0
2019 1.7% 2
2020 1.8% 2
Source: UUEPC (Autumn 2015)
As cuts and debt levels take their toll
Source: UUEPC (Autumn 2015)
Latest fiscal data highlights the big debate
Source: HMRC, NI Executive, PESA
Note: Expenditure figures are sourced from the NI Budget 2015-16 Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding
25% of NI’s total expenditure on benefits
Source: NI Executive (2015-16)
Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding
Autumn statement a U-turn? • Surprising shift in Chancellor’s plans. Softening austerity, moving to tax increases and no tax credit removal (yet) • All the figures depend on the 2.4% outturn for UK economy (which is assumed by OBR) so don’t count on this being the final word! • For NI this means basically flat cash for departmental spend (actually a small increase) meaning cost control vital • More capital spend and no need to earmark money to offset tax credit effects of the budget
A Fresh Start? • Fresh start agreement encouraging, after a frustrating wait • Not huge extra general money – most earmarked for specific ‘division’ measures • Confirmation of Corporation Tax reduction in 2018 to 12.5% (though who pays still unanswered) • But some important points – sharing savings on benefit fraud, establishing a fiscal council, end of welfare penalties • Some sense of ‘last chance’ feeling. A grasping of the need to change and that Treasury are no longer listening to the ‘special case’ argument in a general sense • The big challenge is now – hospital system, water charges, rates system, education and policing, housing – all tough decisions that have got to be made soon.
The Derry /Strabane labour market outlook
ulster.ac.uk
Demography not favourable
Source: NINIS
Area
Mid Ulster
Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon
6%
Lisburn & Castlereagh
4%
Newry, Mourne & Down
2%
Northern Ireland
-1.3%-1.3% Antrim & Newtownabbey
Belfast
-2.7% -1.9%
Fermanagh & Omagh
-2%
Mid & East Antrim
-3.7% -3.6%
Causeway Coast & Glens
-4%
North Down & Ards
Mid Ulster
9.1%
Derry & Strabane
Projected population change for the 11 Local Government Districts (2012-2022)
Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon
Lisburn & Castlereagh
10%
Population change - working age (2012-2022)
Area Newry, Mourne & Down
6%
Northern Ireland
Antrim & Newtownabbey
3.2%
Fermanagh & Omagh
2.5% 2.7% 2.7%
Belfast
North Down & Ards
2%
Mid & East Antrim
4%
Causeway Coast & Glens
12%
Derry & Strabane
Population change (2012-2022)
A need to change the population outlook 9.8% 10.1%
8% 8.1%
4.0% 4.1% 5.2%
1.2%
0%
Projected change in working age population (16 to 64) for the 11 Local Government Districts (2012-2022)
8% 5.4% 5.5% 5.9%
3.3%
0.5%
0%
-0.5%
7% of NI employees work in Derry & Strabane
Derry & Strabane Year
Full-time
P art-time
Total
Full-time
P art-time
2009
33,016
18,263
51,278
64%
36%
2011
31,852
18,606
50,458
63%
37%
2013
32,345
17,907
50,253
64%
36%
Source: DETI
The labour market has improved– though area still has highest unemployment level
Source: ONS
Public sector dominates the labour market
Source: ONS & NINIS
In NI context ICT a clear strength
Source: ONS & NINIS
What would happen if economy rebalanced?
Source: ONS & NINIS
If the labour market were as strong as the UK average?
Note: employment rate based on employees as % of 16-64 population: D/S = 52.3%, UK=71.0%
Source: ONS & NINI
Inactivity remains a critical problem
Source: DETI
The decade to 2011 did not change the labour market too much
Source: Census
The welfare debate- has anyone focussed on the key problem?
Source: DSD
45% increase in DLA recipients since 2000
Source: DSD
With some of the highest DLA rate in NI.. Top 20 Derry-Londonderry DLA claimant super output areas (2015): Derry- Londonderry Clondermot 1
DLA Rank (/890 SOA's)
DLA rate (total pop)
870
24.2%
Brandywell
867
24.0%
Culmore 2
856
22.8%
Carn Hill 2
848
22.3%
Carn Hill 1
839
21.1%
Beechwood
838
21.1%
Creggan South
837
21.0%
Strand 1 (Derry LGD)
835
20.9%
The Diamond
833
20.8%
Crevagh 2
832
20.8%
Shantallow West 1
828
20.6%
Creggan Central 1
820
20.2%
Shantallow East
819
20.2%
Westland
811
19.7%
Lisnagelvin 1
810
19.7%
Creggan Central 2
809
19.7%
Shantallow West 2
785
17.8%
Altnagelvin 1
778
17.4%
Culmore 3
757
16.7%
Springtown 1
750
16.5%
Note: for full list see Annex A
Source: DSD & NINIS
With some of the highest DLA rate in NI.. Top 18 Strabane DLA claimant super output areas (2015): Strabane
DLA Rank (/890 SOA's)
DLA rate (total pop)
East
868
24.0%
Castlederg
857
22.9%
Sion Mills
842
21.3%
West 2 Ballycolman
829
20.7%
816
20.0%
Newtownstewart
761
16.8%
Glenderg
756
16.7%
Clare
688
14.4%
Dunnamanagh
681
14.2%
Victoria Bridge
680
14.2%
Finn
678
14.2%
South 2
651
13.8%
North
622
13.2%
Slievekirk
602
12.7%
South 1
597
12.6%
Artigarvan
556
11.8%
Plumbridge
524
11.4%
West 1
466
10.6%
Source: DSD & NINIS
Earnings in private sector a further concern
Median gross annual earnings for full-time employees in the public and private sec tors for DCSDC, 2 0 1 4 (£ ) Desc ription Work Postc ode Residential Postc ode NI All persons
£18,112
£16,580
£18,764
Public Sector
£28,988
£26,057
£23,105
Private Sector
£16,605
£15,409
£16,375
Note: Chart shown displays workplace annual wages
Source: NISRA, ASHE
Skill levels (of residents) weakest in NI O f those who left sc hool in 2 0 1 2 /1 3 DCSDC Q ualific ation Number %
NI %
2+ A-levels A*-E
1,227
55.5
55.7
5+ GCSEs A*-C
1,688
76.4
78.6
5+ GCSEs A*-C inc. GCSE English & Maths
1,296
58.7
63.5
4 in 10 don’t have basic Maths and English skills
Source: Census
Financial assistance reflects market
Note: Lending refers to years 2011-2014 total
Source: InvestNI
The critical challenges • • • • • • • •
What is the vision? Jobs, equality, wealth? What else is being done that does not fit into the plan? Job creation Demography Inactivity levels Skills, particularly for residents, though school leavers too Infrastructure Attitudes (2/3 Roman Catholic young people and ½ Protestant young people do not want to be in the city when they are 25. Boland & Murtagh UB research on City of Culture) • Creativity and ambition? – Probably not (anymore) • Funding
The critical strengths • Creativity and ambition? Increasingly so • Recent success – City of Culture (80% young people attendance, over 50% proud of their city) • Partnership and relationships • Ability to have hard conversations • The physical attributes • Culture, recreation and entertainment • Schools and university • Pockets of sectoral expertise • Diversity of employment structure
The Community Plan- how will UUEPC help?
ulster.ac.uk
How we will help • Forecasting • Modelling the economics of the plan • Inter-dependence and sense checking • Thinking towards Social Value Frameworks
Modelling the North West • Forecast of demography, jobs and output (less relevant) for the Derry / Strabane labour market • Base case outlook – most likely outcome for the area • Consideration of the neighboring Donegal labour market (possibly some basic modelling) • Useful to set the need for better – but precision at Local Level is limited
Modelling the Community Plan • Taking the capital expenditure and project plans and using the jobs data to model the impacts • Mulitpier effects – the supply chain and spending effects will be considered
• Conversion into GVA
Interdependencies and sense checking • Qualitative (traffic light) assessment of the interdependencies between the various components of the plan • Sense checking the overall impact, the viability of the spending plans and the pace of change
• Assessing skills / infrastructure potential obstacles to success
Thinking about Social Value Frameworks • Measuring the wider set of Outcomes – Social Wellbeing – Economic Wellbeing – Environmental Wellbeing • Using the metrics set out in the outcomes matrix • Equality assessment critical here • More ‘experimental’ type of modelling – uncertain outcomes at this stage
Summary & next steps
ulster.ac.uk
Next Steps Building the forecast model (January) Working with the Community Plan team on the emerging outcomes to begin the building of the impact model (Jan / Feb) Developing the economic impact assessment (Feb/ Mar) Sense checking the outcomes (Jan/ Feb) Developing the interdependency matrix (Jan/ Feb) Write up of the model and the potential economic impact (Mar) Considering Social Value Frameworks (ongoing)
Summary The economic outlook is challenging, after a strong 2015/2016 as domestic economy shows strength Austerity and consumer debt the main risks Inactivity and skills issues sadly still prominent Strong ROI economy a boost
Plans need to be creative (in ideas and funding)
Thank you
Contact details Professor Neil Gibson Director Ulster University – Economic Policy Centre
Email: n.gibson@ulster.ac.uk Telephone: 02890 366 561
Annex A: 1-20 Derry- Londonderry Clondermot 1
DLA Rank (/890 SOA's)
DLA rate (total pop)
870
24.2%
Brandywell
867
24.0%
Culmore 2
856
22.8%
Carn Hill 2
848
22.3%
Carn Hill 1
839
21.1%
Beechwood
838
21.1%
Creggan South
837
21.0%
Strand 1 (Derry LGD)
835
20.9%
The Diamond
833
20.8%
Crevagh 2
832
20.8%
Shantallow West 1
828
20.6%
Creggan Central 1
820
20.2%
Shantallow East
819
20.2%
Westland
811
19.7%
Lisnagelvin 1
810
19.7%
Creggan Central 2
809
19.7%
Shantallow West 2
785
17.8%
Altnagelvin 1
778
17.4%
Culmore 3
757
16.7%
Springtown 1
750
16.5%
Source: DSD & NINIS
Annex A: 21-40 Derry- Londonderry Ebrington 2
DLA Rank (/890 SOA's)
DLA rate (total pop)
745
16.3%
Culmore 4
744
16.3%
Caw
743
16.2%
Rosemount
739
16.0%
Foyle Springs 2
719
15.4%
New Buildings 1
711
15.1%
Crevagh 3
691
14.4%
Shantallow West 3
690
14.4%
Springtown 2
669
14.1%
Ebrington 1
627
13.3%
Ballynashallog 1
621
13.1%
Crevagh 1
617
13.0%
Victoria (Derry LGD)
601
12.7%
Clondermot 2
596
12.6%
Shantallow West 4
591
12.5%
Enagh 1 (Derry LGD)
569
12.1%
Kilfennan 1
564
12.0%
Claudy 1
563
11.9%
Lisnagelvin 2
562
11.9%
Source: DSD & NINIS
Annex A: 41-58 Derry- Londonderry Eglinton 1
DLA Rank (/890 SOA's)
DLA rate (total pop)
543
11.6%
Pennyburn 2
535
11.5%
Culmore 1
508
11.2%
Altnagelvin 3
451
10.4%
Kilfennan 2
412
9.9%
Holly Mount 1
397
9.8%
Claudy 2
391
9.7%
Foyle Springs 1
386
9.7%
Pennyburn 1
385
9.7%
New Buildings 2
371
9.4%
Banagher
345
9.1%
Enagh 2 (Derry LGD)
309
8.5%
Holly Mount 2
304
8.5%
Eglinton 2
286
8.3%
Strand 2 (Derry LGD)
277
8.3%
Ballynashallog 2
197
7.3%
Altnagelvin 2
139
6.6%
41
4.8%
Culmore 5
Source: DSD & NINIS
Making it happen Maintaining links with the Programme for Government
Joe Reynolds Office of the First Minister and Deputy First Minister
Programme for Government 2016-21 Joe Reynolds Director – Programme for Government and Delivering Social Change
The Current Programme • 5 Priorities
• 82 Commitments • 3 Horizontal Principles • 1 SRO for each Commitment • No role for Local Government
The imperative for change Delivery focus
vs.
Outcomes focus
Unitary Accountability
vs.
Collegiality
Driving activity
vs.
Achieving outcomes
Acting alone
vs.
Collaboration between sectors
Competition for budgets
vs.
Pooling resources
Simple answers
vs.
Acknowledging complexity
The way forward
How the framework will support Outcome Based Accountability OBA Questions
Our response
What are the quality of life conditions we want for Development of themes and outcomes to the children, adults and families who live in our constitute the framework community? What would these conditions look like if we could see them? How can we measure these conditions? Development of indicators How are we doing on the most important of these Establishment of monitoring and reporting measures? processes to support implementation Who are the partners that have a role to play in doing better? What works to do better, including no-cost and low-cost ideas? What do we propose to do?
Development of the programme of action to deliver against outcomes
Management of the framework at an outcome level Linkages to Community Plans
Framework Structure Programme for Government Framework Template
Themes Outcomes
Cross cutting principles
Indicators
•
[To] 3/4 per theme
[Be] [Identified] [Through] [Engagement] Shared Common Long Linked to ownership reference term wellbeing
[Equality?] [Good Relations?] [Balanced Sub-Regional Growth?] [Sustainable Development?] Measure Achievement of Outcomes and Cross-Cutting Principles
•
20-30 headline indicators – second level indicators to probe, for example, key inequalities and sub-regional issues
•
Published regularly and used as a basis for accountability
Timeline Stage
Timeframe
***Community engagement and evidence gathering
Jan ‘15 on
Stage one engagement on framework (political direction)
Dec ’15
***Stage two engagement (thematic development)
Jan/Feb ’16
Political engagement (pre-election)
Mar ‘16
Action planning
Apr ’16
Political engagement (post-election)
May ’16
***Operationalisation
Jun-Sep ’16
***Implementation
May ‘16 on
Remaining Connected Visit our website on: www.derrystrabane.com/communityplanning Email us at: info@derrystrabane.com Derry City & Strabane District Council @dcsdcouncil
#YOURCP