More and counting!!

By Poonam Naik

In 2023 the most populous country on the planet will be India. China’s population is peaking while India’s has continued to grow. And the UN predicts that on 14th April 2023 India’s population will overtake that of China’s. That is hugely significant in symbolic terms – but what is more important is the composition of the Indian population, specifically the size of its working age population. India has more people of working age than any other population group. When this happens, it can lead to what’s known as a demographic dividend because of the opportunity it offers for economic growth, particularly for developing countries.

India’s demographic bulge started much later than China’s in the 2010s and it’s forecast to continue to around 2050 with the biggest growth in the next decade. The big question is will India be able to capitalize on this opportunity?

A bigger working age population in theory should mean greater productivity but in India there are clear obstacles to its success. For a start, about 90% of jobs in India are informal which means most workers don’t have a regular salary. Informal sector workers are quite productive, but the problem is that these are in very insecure jobs. And when situations like COVID happened, many of these workers were out of work. Also, only 20% of women of working age are actually working.

Part of the problem is that while girls are being educated to a higher level, its often not high enough to work in offices.

For men with the same education, there are many jobs like truck drivers, mobile phone repairers, and postal delivery workers.

The challenge for the Indian government is to create the economic environment to encourage both domestic and foreign businesses to create jobs so that it can reap the rewards of being the most populous country on the planet.

India is projected to have population of 1.668 billion by 2050 overpassing China’s 1.33 billion. China has aban- doned its one child policy while India never had any such policies.

The population boom in India has its effects here as well. Indians have formed the first largest group of migrants to arrive and call Australia home. And it is visible in your local festive markets and the Westfield. As a result, there are many different types of ethnic stores and businesses which have propped up. Social problems from home have started raising its ugly head here as well.

It also means we have an increasing number of Desi readers to bring great reads to.

Happy New Year 2023 to all our readers!