The Future of Work

Developing a workforce strategy reflective of the workforce

BY RON PAINTER

IN SOME RESPECTS, I am less susceptible to market-induced strain than the average businessperson.

This can be one limitation of a workforce professional’s perspective. On the other hand, it is also an attribute: I am permitted to operate and observe in a lesser state of anxiety, and so sometimes a greater state of clarity. I have the privilege—and mandate—of looking at the U.S. labor market from 20,000 feet high, with an eye toward the horizon.

Plus, in the end I am buffeted by many of the same labor market conditions as all of you. I too have been navigating employees’ shifting perspectives on the nature and rewards of work.

There are trends which we in the workforce industry may see, now, that others do not. This is our job. And there are also questions which persist no matter how high above the ground level we fly. Their answers may only come in hindsight, once the maelstrom of the moment is behind us. Let me suggest some things we know and some things I speculate.

WHAT WE KNOW:

• The labor force participation rates, particularly for men in the prime working years (age 24-55) are at some of the lowest levels recorded.

• Public policies enacted in eras past have imprisoned more that 3 million people—disproportionately black males, and most of them nonviolent offenders—who are sidelined from the workforce upon release.

• More baby boomers left the labor market over the last 18 months than would have been expected. They took critical skills and expertise with them and tightened the market as a whole.

• Fewer people are aging into the labor market than out, as U.S. birth rates are below replacement levels.

• The Association for Advancing Automation (A3) reported a 37 percent increase in robotics sales in 2021 compared to the same period in 2020, with much of that activity coming from industry sectors outside traditional sector-leads.

• Research on the introduction of automation suggests significant job stability and growth for high-skill and entry-level jobs, but a decline in middle-skill jobs.

I SPECULATE THAT:

• From demographic trends, the workforce of the next decade is, for the most part, already in the labor force.

• The immediate mega-trends of growth in remote work and decay in workforce participation will have consequences for how work is accomplished, how businesses recruit, and how workers interact with automation.

• Everybody likes to speculate, and this itself has consequences: these megatrends, which are already topics of interest, will provide thinktanks, policymakers, and pundits endless opportunity for research and white papers and conversation, which may have a further reinforcing effect, making these trends increasingly more visible and more salient.

I think that every business needs a workforce strategy that is its own—one reflective of its work product, labor needs, community, and crucially, its culture. Perhaps more than ever, a company’s core values–– its purpose, and how it relates to its workforce and stakeholders–– are understood to be important.

Workforce development boards should be focused on the regional labor market and the skills that market demands. The ways those skills can be obtained provide an essential service to their region’s job seekers, businesses, and policymakers.

Workforce boards who are engaged in rigorous, data-driven study of the demographics of their workforce and intently focused on partnerships with their community’s transportation, housing, education, health care, and child care networks provide an even more substantial value, and I think that they will become increasingly the norm.

All the noise of the moment aside, I believe that the next big challenge for business, workforce, and country is bridge-building which honors the human side of the ledger. These times carry great potential. We are all learners and innovators in this changing world if we embrace our opportunities to be.

Ron Painter is the president & CEO of the National Association of Workforce Boards.