Retail's Path Forward

2024 policy priorities will ensure success for the retail industry

BY MATTHEW SHAY

AMERICAN CONSUMERS demonstrated strength and resilience, despite continued economic pressures in 2023, and household spending kept economic expansion on a path forward. Though consumers have shifted where they are allocating their dollars, spending has held up well in the face of headwinds like inflation, higher gas prices, more stringent credit conditions, and elevated interest rates.

Holiday shopping is in full swing, and at the time of this writing NRF is forecasting record spending and meaningful growth of between 3% and 4% this holiday season. A record 182 million people planned to shop instore and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year—almost 16 million more than last year. While it is not surprising to see holiday sales growth returning to pre-pandemic levels, overall household finances remain in good shape due to a strong labor market and real wage gains, which will continue to support consumers’ ability to spend.

Though we’re still developing our outlook for the economy and retail industry for 2024, we have identified policy priorities that will ensure retail industry success in the year ahead.

Passing the Credit Card Competition Act: Credit card swipe fees cost retailers $126 billion last year. This bipartisan legislation would inject competition into the credit card market and reduce this costly burden on retailers, saving them $15 billion per year and the customers they serve.

Passing the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act: Retailers and consumers are facing unprecedented levels of theft and violence in stores nationwide. NRF’s 2023 National Retail Security Survey found that, in addition to retail crime accounting for more than $112 billion in industry losses in 2022, retailers have been forced to close a specific store location (28%), reduce operating hours (45%), or reduce or alter in-store product selection (30%) as a direct result of retail crime. The bipartisan Combating Organized Retail Crime Act would ensure coordination and resources across federal, state, and local agencies to address this growing problem.

Combating New Labor and Workforce Regulations: NRF will be working hard to oppose new regulations by the Biden administration that hinder retailers’ ability to offer tailored, flexible compensation plans for salaried employees, violate retailers’ right to control their own private properties, and dictate who must be considered part- and full-time employees.

Removing Barriers to Global Trade: NRF will continue to push for a positive trade agenda that looks to open markets and provide benefits for U.S consumers. Ensuring a reset with China is critical to ensure that China not only abides by its trade commitments, but so that we can resolve key trade disputes and remove the costly 301 tariffs. In addition, we need Congress to renew key preferential trade programs such as the Generalized System of Preferences, the Miscellaneous Trade Bill, and an early renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

Matthew Shay is president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association.