HEALTH & WELLNESS
A Post-Pandemic World? COVID-19 may soon reach an endemic phase. What will that look like? ASHLEY ZLATOPOLSKY CONTRIBUTING WRITER
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wo years after COVID19 was first declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization, medical experts are now hopeful the deadly virus will become endemic. “When something is endemic, it’s essentially part of the population on what is a small, but consistent basis,” explains Dr. Steve McGraw, EMS medical director for the Oakland County Medical Control Authority and medical director of Hatzalah of Michigan, a Jewish organization that provides rapid response to medical emergencies in the Oak Park area. In an endemic phase, overall COVID-19 cases would become static, rather than rising or falling. The virus could eventually become similar to influenza, which has been classified as endemic for decades. Endemic diseases are also more predictable and manageable. However, the classifications can sometimes be tricky to differentiate: to be considered an epidemic, an outbreak sees a sudden increase in cases.
If that disease then spreads across several countries and affects a large number of people, then, like COVID-19, it becomes a pandemic. If the disease reaches an equilibrium, an endemic phase is likely. CREATING AN ENDEMIC LABEL Yet if COVID-19 becomes endemic as experts predict and hope, what will that mean for the general population? Doctors and health organizations still believe a robust policy response will be necessary, as will regular vaccinations, potentially on a yearly basis. McGraw says that before COVID-19 can be considered endemic, enough evidence has to be gathered on an international scale. “They’re going to want to see other populations, not just in the United States but throughout the world, reaching this kind of smoldering, steady state,” he explains of a decision to
Dr. James Bragman
Dr. Steve McGraw
label COVID-19 as endemic. In his opinion, however, McGraw argues that we’ve already reached the endemic phase of the virus that has now killed more than 6 million people worldwide and more than 35,000 people in Michigan. “We have a very low frequency of transmission,” he explains. “Our positivity rate is under 5%. We are much less vulnerable than we were.” McGraw says vaccines have done a tremendous job in reducing vulnerability to the
Dr. Russell Faust
deadly virus, while natural immunity has also done its part in potentially moving COVID-19 into an endemic phase. “We can’t go through a surge again like we did without the virus manifesting some really dramatic mutational change,” he continues. “It would almost need to be a different virus to really put us down again.” continued on page 100 MARCH 31 • 2022
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