Pandemic, Putin and plotters

Who in Africa has the brightest future?

Text Claus Stäcker, DW Head of Africa Department

The triple crisis of Corona, climate and the consequences of war is hitting the continent particularly hard. Although Russia invaded a neighboring country in violation of international law, it enjoys surprisingly great sympathy. Old alliances from the Cold War are being revived, new brotherhoods in arms are emerging. Autocrats and militiamen of all stripes smell morning air. They often appear to young people as saviors, because only a few democracies have so far succeeded in unfolding their advantages. Because the old elites have not yet been outshined by the new, reliable, convincing ones. The cost of living is skyrocketing and only in a few sectors is the crisis turning out to be a catalyst for development, in digitalization and in the service sector. Before Corona, Senegal, Ghana, Rwanda and Ethiopia had made the most progress. Rwanda shows how little is enough to move forward: Stability, vision and reliable leadership. The development that resourcepoor, populous Rwanda has taken since the 1994 genocide could serve as a shining example. President Paul Kagame’s authoritarian leadership style has many friends. At the same time, he shuts out critical, creative minds, does not allow dissent and keeps a tight grip on politics, the media, public opinion and the judiciary. Opposition in Rwanda is life-threatening.

North-east of Rwanda, in Ethiopia, a country of 110 million inhabitants, the Tigray war, brutal violence and new ethnic and religious conflicts, is delivering a bad example for the fragility of any progress. The state of Ethiopia is only held together by force and provides sad proof of how quickly a country can derail.

A fighter loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) mans a guard post on the outskirts of the town of Hawzen in the Tigray regionof northern Ethiopia.

It is therefore not development dictatorships like Rwanda that—in my deep conviction—will succeed in the long run, not coup plotters and military governments that decide at their discretion when to release their country back into the hands of civilians. Countries like Botswana will succeed, even if it is only of limited use as an example because of its special colonial history, its diamond wealth and its small population. But there is still a lot to learn from the Gaborone governments that have been acting calmly for decades: limited terms in office do work, unspectacular changes of power. Above all, changing governments succeed in managing resources wisely and strictly, diversifying their economies and allowing all strata of the population to share in the prosperity. Unlike in Rwanda, a minimum of freedom is given and democratic exercise and success are interlinked.

This creates social security, stability and the greatest satisfaction in Africa. And it pleases investors, because countries like Botswana are particularly predictable. And yet, the flat, sparsely populated country in the south also shows that the crucial thing is to reflect on its own reserves.

Old alliances from the Cold War are being revived, new brotherhoods in arms are emerging. Autocrats and militiamen of all stripes smell morning air.

The continent must break away from the decades-old logic that only a permanent injection of development aid, foreign investment and cash transfers from the diaspora will have a trickle-down-effect on prosperity. In my opinion, in 60 years of independence this has not been proven. Even the new, so altruistically appearing companion China is not fit to be a savior. It is true that China’s political-economic clout can be used in the short term and at a pace the West cannot keep up with, for improvements in infrastructure. In the long run, however, this alliance will lead to the same dependency from which many African countries sought to free themselves in the postcolonial era. Cheap Chinese products are already destroying local production of simple consumer goods. Dreams of millions and millions of jobs have not come close to being fulfilled. Between 2014 and 2018, Chinese direct investment created fewer than 140,000 jobs. So the countries that will do best are those that provide stability and social progress, unleash their own creative as well as economic potential and confidently explain to new and old investors what a win-win situation is for them. In my view, the development of creative potential can best succeed in inspiring democracies. But more examples should follow soon.