TCR Vol 3 No 1 by DhingPatulot

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Volume 3 - Number 1 â&#x20AC;˘ Dec. 31, 2012 - Jan. 14, 2013

WORLD

Strategic Analysis and Research by the

Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence Gen Garbo [Region VII police chief] threatens to physically remove me from my office by Dec. 31. But brute force cannot conquer my spirit. I will stand up for Cebu! ~ Suspended Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia on twitter â&#x20AC;Ś they have been saying that Governor Garcia could ask for a motion for reconsideration or file a petition in court. ... Gov. Garcia opted to file a petition in court. So why not stop the suspension? ~ Vice-President Jejomar Binay expressing support for his coalition ally, suspended Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia

3 End of the World As We Know It

The Global Trends 2030 paper of U.S. intelligence points to a recasting of the world's tomorrow. A two-issue special report based on major futures studies

NATION

17 Bringing Down Disaster Deaths

The Global Trends 2030 report warns of more disastrous disasters ahead. How can the world's third most-calamity-prone country prepare better for them?

TECHNOLOGY

25 High Tech for Food and Drink

Futures studies warn of food and water shortages. We review possible solutions: genetically modified crops, precision farming, better irrigation and wastewater recycling

HEALTH/LIFESTYLE

POINT & CLICK

35 Youth Bulge: Boon or Burden?

Global Trends 2030 warning: While nations can benefit from growing young populations, without proper management of the opportunity, instability can result

You can access online research via the Internet by clicking phrases in blue

CONTENTS WORLD NATION TECHNOLOGY HEALTH/LIFESTYLE Center for Strategy, Enterprise & Intelligence provides expertise in strategy and management, enterprise development, intelligence, Internet and media. For subscriptions, research, and advisory services, please e-mail report@censeisolutions.com or call/fax +63-2-5311182. Links to online material on public websites are current as of the week prior to the publication date, but might be removed without warning. Publishers of linked content should e-mail us or contact us by fax if they do not wish their websites to be linked to our material in the future.

Plotting the World’s March Toward Tomorrow Before anything else, a Blessed Christmas and a Joyous New Year to all our esteemed subscribers of The CenSEI Report. We express our gratitude for a new year and a new volume with our fortnightly readers, notwithstanding all the hype about the supposed end of the world on December 21. Not that analysts and editors at the Report gave much credence to the worldwide frenzy over the ancient Mayan calendar’s purported predictions. However, over the holidays and into the first week of 2013, the publication was researching, pondering and writing about end times of another sort: the major overhaul of today’s world forecast by leading futures studies. In this issue and the next, The CenSEI Report will digest those forward-looking studies and their implications for sectors covered by the World, Business, Nation, Technology, Health/Lifestyle and other sections. The primary resource is the Global Trends 2030 forecast, published in December by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, the latest in its series of long-term extrapolations done every four years. For this special package, each article will give findings and highlights of the seminal Global Trends forecast relevant to the story’s topic. For this issue, there are futures articles in Nation on coping with the coming mega-floods and storms, in Technology on know-how to head off looming shortages in food and water, and in Health/Lifestyle on the demographic challenge of aging societies and burgeoning cities. And for the second issue of the year, out on January 14, there will other articles on geopolitics, business, and energy futures. Like the Report’s other subjects for strategic analysis and research, futures articles benefit from related material, both supporting and opposing. Bringing in alternative reports, including those of other leading nations, institutions and experts, help validate facts, insights and analysis. Such cross-checking and corroboration are even more essential in projections and predictions of developments yet to happen. And all this accompanying material with online links, of course. Perhaps the biggest challenge in futures analysis and forecasting is breaking free of past ideas, events and conventions, but without setting them aside. Longstanding beliefs, aspirations, structures and cultures, whether decades-, centuries- or millennia-old, necessarily influence the march of events today and tomorrow. So the enduring past must needs be part of divining the future. On the other hand, as history and reality have always shown, tomorrow never fails to surprise with its twists and turns that so often break away from the paths of the past and the expectations of the experts. To get the future right, expect nothing and be ready for anything.

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The End of the World â&#x20AC;&#x201D; As We Know It

Global Trends 2030 and other futures studies plot the planet-wide forces and directions recasting tomorrow By Ricardo Saludo

After the Mayan calendar proved unfateful, an American apocalypse was averted too: Notwithstanding those escapes, wrenching change lies ahead for man and planet

FoxNews

STRATEGY POINTS In successive Global Trends reports since 2000, the rising middle class and challenges to U.S. hegemony are major factors shaping tomorrow With emerging nations and empowered individuals asserting their views and interests, tension, uncertainty and conflict will likely spike Top governance imperatives are collaboration among states and non-state entities, and engagement, not isolation, in the face of global problems

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The end of the world — as we know it

nother week, another apocalypse. After making hay and hype over the supposed end of the world when a 5,000-year cycle of the Mayan calendar ended on December 21, 2012, world media stoked another round of apocalyptic fears, at least for economy and market watchers, with reports and commentary on the impending “fiscal cliff” when U.S. tax cuts expire and budget reductions take effect on New Year’s Day. Fortunately for the world, the denizens of both ancient Mayan temples and today’s Capitol Hill proved anything but doomsayers. As a Mayan elder explains, the end of his age-old culture’s calendar merely signals the start of another cycle, just as the closing of 2012 on December 31 heralds the beginning of 2013. In Washington, meanwhile, economic armageddon was averted with a January 1 deal between the White House and the Senate extending tax breaks indefinitely and deferring spending cuts for two months. The Republican-controlled House subsequently approved the compromise, and spared world financial markets from a bloodbath on their first trading day of 2013. Yet the world of today does not need misconstrued ancient calendars and mismatched revenues and budgets to divine an end of the way things are. Leading nations, international agencies and global corporations constantly monitor, distill and extrapolate trends, forces and factors shaping the world and its key sectors, and make educated guesses about how the world, its structures, systems, processes and peoples may change in years, decades, even generations to come.

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GLOBAL TRENDS 2030: AN OVERVIEW MEGATRENDS Individual Empowerment

Diffusion of Power Demographic Patterns Food, Water, Energy Nexus GAME-CHANGERS Crisis-Prone Global Economy

Governance Gap

Potential for Increased Conflict Wider Scope of Regional Instability

Impact of New Technologies Role of the United States

Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances. There will not be any hegemonic power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a multipolar world. The demographic arc of instability will narrow. Economic growth might decline in “aging“ countries. 60% of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration will increase. Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others. Will global volatility and imbalances among players with different economic interests result in collapse? Or will greater multipolarity lead to increased resiliency in the global economic order? Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead of being overwhelmed by it? Will rapid changes and shifts in power lead to more intrastate and interstate conflicts? Will regional instability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, spill over and create global insecurity? Will technological breakthroughs be developed in time to boost economic productivity and solve the problems caused by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, and climate change? Will the US be able to work with new partners to reinvnet the international system?

POTENTIAL WORLDS Stalled Engines Fusion Gini-Out-of-theBottle

Nonstate World

In the most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. The US draws inward and globalization stalls. In the most plausible best-case outcome, China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation. Inequalities explode as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is no longer the “global policeman.“ Driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges. Summary from Global Trends 2030, page ii

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Such future-gazing tomes is the main subject of The CenSEI Report in its first two issues of 2013, with special focus on Global Trends 2030, the latest assessment and forecast of geopolitical, security, economic, social, technological and environmental directions for the world, published just last month by the United Statesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; National Intelligence Council. With similar projections for 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025, NIC provides long-term strategic analysis for the U.S. Intelligence Community. IC includes the State, Homeland Security, Energy and Treasury Departments; the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the National Security Agency (NSA); the military

and aerospace intelligence arms of the Defense Department; plus the intelligence divisions of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines, and Coast Guard. This article summarizes the most substantive themes, insights, arguments and data of Global Trends 2030, with cross-references to the earlier reports, as well as related projections done by other countries, international bodies, and major corporations. Three more reports in this installment of The CenSEI Report focus on future directions and challenges in disaster risk reduction, technology, and health. Another three articles in the next issue will cover strategic implications and recommendations in geopolitics, business and energy.

THE BURGEONING MIDDLE

Upper and Middle Class Populations in Selected Countries, 2030 and 2050 Forecasts 2030

2050

Middle Class Population

Upper Class Population

GDP per capita (PPP)

Middle Class Population

Upper Class Population

GDP per capita (PPP)

PRC

1,120

21,100

1,240

190

47,800

India

1,190

13,200

1,400

210

41,700

Indonesia

220

13,500

250

37,400

Japan

100

48,900

66,700

Republic of Korea

60,200

107,600

Viet Nam

11,900

100

33,800

World

4,990

580

19,400

5,900

1,500

36,600

185

190

65,500

120

290

98,600

Germany

51,300

77,800

Table from Centennial Group projection in 2011, cited in Asia 2050, published by ADB, page 24

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If Global Trends 2030 readers end up wondering if the much-hyped Mayan prediction of earthy demise got it wrong by just a decade or so, it’s understandable. Among the highlights are four major scenarios divined by NIC for the next two decades, from the most optimistic — productive collaboration among America, China and major non-state groupings — to the dismal and dangerous: world political and economic paralysis and escalating strife between haves and have-nots. Plus a planet-wide killer pandemic, deadlier and more destructive weather, and growing world food and water shortages (see Overview graphic from Trends 2030 report, page 4).

Individual empowerment. A quick comparison

of the 2030 overview with the past four Global Trends projections, done in 2000, 2004 and 2008, shows both enduring issues as well as shifting perspectives. The first megatrend of individual empowerment underscores the growing clout and assertiveness of citizens. “Individual empowerment will accelerate substantially owing to poverty reduction and a huge growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, and better health care,” Global Trends 2030 forecasts (page 8 in the report). A number of projections expect the world middle class population to reach between 2 billion and

Share of Global Middle Class Population, 2000-2050

Graph from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, cited in Global Trends 2030, page 9

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3 billion by 2030 from today’s 1 billion or so, based on $10-$50 spending a day at purchasing power parity, which accounts for price differences between countries. Sharing and augmenting the U.S. report from across the Atlantic is the Europe’s own Global Trends 2030, subtitled “Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World,” and produced last year by the European Union Institute for Security Studies. The EUISS 20-year projections echoed several of the NIC’s 2030 themes, especially the main ones in the EU report’s introduction (page 6) and reiterated in the executive summary:

“The empowerment of the individual, which may contribute to a growing sense of belonging to a single human community. Greater stress on sustainable development against a backdrop of greater resource scarcity and persistent poverty, compounded by the consequences of climate change. The emergence of a more polycentric world characterised by a shift of power away from states, and growing governance gaps as the mechanisms for inter-state relations fail to respond adequately to global public demands” (emphasis from report) With a different spending threshold, the Asian Development Bank’s Asia 2050 report forecast nearly

RETURN OF THE MIDDLE KINGDOM Global Power Index Projections, 2010-2050 Earlier Trends reports used economic output, population, military spending and technology for a four-component index. NIC has added more criteria, like health, education and governance, for an alternative barometer of world clout, under which China’s return as the world’s leading power is delayed by a decade to the 2040s.

Graph from Global Trends 2030, published by U.S. National Intelligence Council, page 16

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5 billion middle class by 2030, with more than half of them in Asia (see The Burgeoning Middle table). But big questions loom: How assertive and empowered Asia’s affluents would be, especially the 1.1 billion projected to be China. How long and with what methods can authoritarian governments keep citizens with more money and education to accept no increases in their freedom? The 2030 report explains: “Historically, the rise of middle classes has led to populism and dictatorships as well as pressures for greater democracy.” It adds that $12,000 per-capita economic output may be “the level above which democracies do not revert to authoritarian systems” (page 10). On the way there, however, the road would have many twists and turns, bumps and holes. And sadly, as the world has often seen when people break free, from the original Exodus to Syria’s uprising, blood. Diffusion of power. Even more than the growing and increasingly assertive global middle class, cited in the first chapter of the 2025 report, the Global Trends series has constantly expounded on the diffusion of power from the dominant West, led by the United States, to other global and regional players. Indeed, this geopolitical balance of global clout, military and economic might, and social and cultural influence is the constant U.S. concern, prominent in every report, even as other major themes may res and fade, from world financial crisis to global warming and resource scarcity. That America’s global dominance will decline as China and other power centers, both state and nonstate, rise — this trend has grown more and more clear and inevitable with every report. In the 2015 projections, there was no credible challenge seen to the U.S. This perspective was not surprising since non-government organizations provided most of the insights and information for the study, and it was

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done in 2000, before the 9/11 attacks the following year and China’s surge to become the world’s secondlargest economy late in the last decade. Trends 2030 now makes plain (page 15): “In a tectonic shift, by 2030, Asia will have surpassed North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending, and technological investment. China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030.” At the regional level, new powers will challenged established ones. Vietnam is expected to approach Thailand’s regional clout by 2030, possibly renewing their age-old contest for clout in Laos and Cambodia. In Latin America, Brazil will likely affirm its position as “colossus of the South,” ahead of Mexico and Columbia, while Egypt, Ethiopia and Nigeria “have the potential to approach or surpass South Africa in overall national power” — if their governance improves and enhances socio-economic development (page 15 in 2030 report). The EU report adds: “There will be a plurality of actors, and no single world power will play a hegemonic role. This will generate greater freedom of manoeuvre for all international actors and give middle powers a more prominent role on the world stage. Polycentrism will be accompanied by an economic power shift toward Asia ... There will be a shift in economic power to China and India from the U.S., Europe and Japan.” In this recasting of the global pecking order, both historians and futurists see not just uncertainty, but tensions if not conflict. The 165-page “Global Strategic Trends - Out to 2040,” put out by Britain’s Defense Ministry in 2010, expects “the locus of global power will move away from the United

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ON THE JOB Working Age Population in BRICs and G-6 Countries, 2000-2055

Malacca Straits • 15 million barrels per day of oil (18% of global total.) • 70% of China’s oil imports • 60,000 shipping movements per year. • 25% of all global trade • History of piracy Asian Meridian hotspot map from U.K. Defense Ministry paper

States (US) and Europe towards Asia, as the global system shifts from a uni-polar towards a multi-polar distribution of power. This shift, coupled with the global challenges of climate change, resource scarcity and population growth, is likely to result in a period of instability in international relations, accompanied by the possibility of intense competition between major powers.” The U.K. forecast spotlights coming hotspots, including current or dormant border disputes flaring

up (page 66) as well as major economic hubs and their trade choke points, particularly the East Asian crescent from Japan and Korea through China’s booming coast and the increasingly tense South China Sea, to the Malacca Straits choke point and the mineral-exporting areas of Indonesia and Australia. The British paper called it the Asian Meridian (see map above from page 64 of the U.K. report). Through the area passes a quarter of world shipping. Some two-thirds of the cargo going through is for China,

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MARCH TO THE CITIES Top Ten Countries in Urban Population Growth, 1950-2050 India

49% 70%

China

78% 98%

Nigeria

82% 50%

USA

34% 29%

Indonesia

78% 72%

Pakistan

Lighter portions of bars and percentage share data show how much migration to cities contributed to increase in urban population

54% 59%

Bangladesh

86% 78%

DR Congo

41%

1950-2000 overall population growth 59%

Philippines

1950-2000 urban growth

50%

2000-2050 overall population growth 42%

2000-2050 urban growth

UR Tanzania 87% 62% 0

100

200

300

400

500

Urban population change (in millions)

Graph from Patterns of Potential in Human Progress: Reducing Global Poverty, published by Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver; page 58

Chart from World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision, by U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012), page 14

including 80% of its oil imports and those of Japan too, plus almost half the world’s coal exports from Australia and Indonesia.

Indian Navy’s readiness for forays into the area to protect offshore oil projects contracted with Vietnam in areas also claimed by China.

The report predicts: “The importance of these choke-points is likely to grow out to 2040 placing the region at the intersection of probable Indian, U.S. and Chinese spheres of influence.” In fact, that’s already happening with the planned Chinese garrison in the disputed Spratly Islands, the U.S. expanding its forces rotating through the Philippines, and the

Demographic patterns. The NIC’s Trends 2030

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report forecasts a world population of 8.3 billion, up from 7.1 billion today. It cites four major demographic trends that will shape national conditions and international relations: “aging both for the West and increasingly most developing states; a still significant but shrinking number of youthful societies and

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cross-border issue; and growing urbanization, which will spur economic growth but place new strains on food and water resources” (page 20 of NIC report). The aging of nations will strain pension funds and living standards as a markedly decreased proportion of the population is working. Most rich countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will join Japan and Germany in the 40-plus median age bracket, along with China and Vietnam (see Median Age map on page 36).

On the other hand, many youthful countries will enter the so-called “demographic window of opportunity” when the working-age population is sizable compared with both the elderly and the very young who are unable or less able to be economically productive. According to the U.N. report “World Population to 2030,” particularly the tables on pages 79-81, China entered that demographic window in 1990, coinciding with its two decades of double-digit annual growth. Thailand began this phase in 1995, followed by Vietnam in 2005, Malaysia in 2010, and the Philippines in 2015. One business blogger

RESOURCES UNDER STRAIN Outlook for Food, Energy and Metals, 2020 and 2030 By 2020

By 2030

Food

• Average crop prices increase by 15-20% against long-rate average, but lower than 2008-2010 spike. • Global food production grows by 1.5% per year. • Stocks-to-use ratios remain at crisis thresholds. • Fish-as-food demand increase by 11-17% compared with 2010.

• Cereal prices increase by 70-90% compared with 2010; up to 130-170% with climate change. • Crop demand reaches 2.7 billion tonnes, from 1.9 billion tonnes in the 1990s. • Meat demand growth between 2001 and 2030 estimated at 1.7% per year. • Fish-as-food demand grows by 20-30% compared with 2010.

Energy

• Demand for energy increases by 17% (from 2010) by 2020. • To meet oil supply in 2020, over $3 trillion of investment in the oil sector is needed. • Prices for oil are around $120 per barrel. Gas prices remain differentiated by regions, with Asia’s being significantly higher than North America’s.

• Demand for energy grows by 29%. Coal demand grows by 20% and gas by 44%. • By 2035 a total of over $37 trillion of investments in the energy sector, half of which will go to the power sector, is needed. • Proces for oil are at $100-140 per barrel in real terms.

Metals

• 30-50% demand growth for major metals; rare earth demand doubles from 2010 levels. • Copper faces a 30% supply gap in absence of considerable additional investment. • Heavy rare earths remain in deficit until around 2018-20.

• 90% demand growth for steel, 60% for copper (2010 baseline.) Demand for aluminum more than doubles. • Copper could face a 50% supply gap in absence of considerable additional investment. • Potential for temporary shortages of specialty metals with wider deployment of novel technologies.

Table from International Energy Agency and Food and Agriculture Organization, compiled by Chatham House for U.S. National Intelligence Council (published in “Resources Futures,” page 3)

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sees a singular opportunity for the country in this approaching demographic window. The other major demographic trend is also ongoing and virtually unstoppable: migration to cities and across borders, mainly driven by economic need and opportunity. Internally, the move is from countryside to city: “In a tectonic shift, today’s roughly 50-percent urban population (3.5 billion urban of the world’s 7.1 billion people) will almost certainly climb to near 60 percent (4.9 billion of the world’s projected 8.3 billion)” (page 26 in report). That’s

1.4 billion additional city-dwellers — more than all the people in China today — with the Philippines among nine countries expected to collectively account for 26% of the increase, with China and India adding 37% (page 26). These future urban populations will demand homes, food, water and jobs over the next 18 years. It’s a gigantic economic opportunity: the projected urban construction alone for homes, offices, and transport facilities over the next four decades — mostly in Asia and Africa — “could roughly equal the entire volume

Map from Global Trends 2030, page 66

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of such construction to date in world history” (page 24). But the unprecedented urbanization will also strain food, water and energy resources more than ever before. Not to mention intensifying both competition for jobs and social animosity over inequality and poverty.

Food, water and energy nexus. Which brings

up the fourth megatrend in NIC’s assessment: growing strains on food, water and energy resources. Says the 2030 forecast: “an expanding middle class and swelling urban populations will increase pressures on critical resources — particularly food and water — but new technologies — such as ‘vertical’ farming in high-rise structures which also reduce transportation costs — could help expand needed resources” (page 30). Some worrisome data from the report: Food demand is forecast to rise by more than 35% by 2030. That’s like feeding an additional 2.4 billion people — the combined populations of China and India. If global food productivity were increasing 2% a year, as it did between 1970 and 2000, crop output can match the projected 2030 demand. But nowadays, the gains amount to a mere 1.1% a year, and still falling. In fact, world food consumption exceeded production in all but one of the last eight years. NIC also warns that projected water needs of 6.9 billion cubic meters by 2030 will exceed current sustainable supplies by 40%. And that’s not even counting the impact of climate change, especially spreading drought and desertification. No wonder China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and other countries have been buying farmland abroad, what The Economist magazine calls “outsourcing’s third wave.” Just last month, London’s Royal Institute for International Affairs at Chatham House published

“Resources Futures,” a 214-page report on global food, energy, mineral and water resources. Its overall findings paraphrased: “Volatility is the new normal,” with world prices and supplies continually buffeted by surging demand, supply shocks, and commodity market fluctuations. Environmental change and degradation are posing new production constraints, while resource trade and control are triggering political conflicts. To cope with resource challenges, Chatham House admonishes, “collaborative governance is the only option.” But if the world’s record in international cooperation on climate change is any indication, especially since the 1992 Rio de Janeiro summit, it is hard to be optimistic about the community of nations working together to address strains in food, water, energy and minerals supplies.

Game and world changers. Looking at the

six so-called Game Changers in Trends 2030 (see Overview highlights), three overriding realities emerge, both not really new to the world. First, there will be intense and increasing uncertainty, volatility, instability and conflict in the decades ahead, especially with new powers rising, more assertive citizens spreading, resources dwindling, and domestic and international frictions growing amid the widening gap between haves and have-nots. The second perennial challenge is the need for consultation and collaboration among nations, sectors, international and domestic organizations, corporations, citizens and other stakeholders in the many problem areas facing the world. This imperative has been around since nations came into being. However, it is more widely needed now with globalization making countless domestic actions and problems, from water and land use

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POTENTIAL BLACK SWANS THAT WOULD CAUSE THE GREATEST DISRUPTIVE IMPACT

Severe Pandemic

No one can predict which pathogen will be the next to start spreading to humans, or when or where such a development will occur. An easily transmissible novel respiratory pathogen that kills or incapacitates more than one percent of its victims is among the most disruptive events possible. Such an outbreak could result in millions of people suffering and dying in every corner of the world in less than six months.

Much More Rapid Climate Change

Dramatic and unforseen changes already are occuring at a faster rate than expected. Most scientists are not confident of being able to predict such events. Rapid changes in precipitation patterns-such as monsoons in India and the rest of Asia-could sharply disrupt that region’s ability to feed its population.

Euro/EU Collapse

An unruly Greek exit from the euro zone could cause eight times the collateral damage as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, provoking a broader crisis regarding the EU’s future.

A Democratic or Collapsed China

China is slated to pass the threshold of US$15,000 per capita purchasing power parity (PPP) in the next five years or so-a level that is often a trigger for democratization. Chinese “soft“ power could be dramatically boosted, setting off a wave of democratic movements. Alternatively, many experts believe a democratic China could also become more nationalistic. An economically collapsed China would trigger political unrest and shock the global economy.

A Reformed Iran

A more liberal regime could come under growing public pressure to end the international sanctions and negotiate an end to Iran’s isolation. An Iran that dropped its nuclear weapons aspirations and became focused on economic modernization would better bolster the chances for a more stable Middle East.

Nuclear War or WMD/Cyber Attack

Nuclear powers such as Russia and Pakistan and potential aspirants such as Iran and North Korea see nuclear weapons as compensation for other political and security weaknesses, heightening the risk of their use. The chance of nonstate actors conducting a cyber attack-or using WMD-also is increasing.

Solar Geomagnetic Storms

Solar geomagnetic storms could knock out satellites, the electric grid, and many sensitive electronic devices. The recurrence intervals of crippling solar geomagnetic storms, which are less than a century, now pose a substantial threat because of the world’s dependence on electricity.

US Disengagement

A collapse or sudden retreat of US power probably would result in an extended period of global anarchy; no leading power would be likely to replace the United States as guarantor of the international order.

Table of low-probability disruptive events from Global Trends 2030, page xi

and health to Internet policies, have impact across borders or even across the planet. Subsumed under this issue is the role of the United States, which must learn to work with countries and other entities which it used to dominate.

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The third perennial also intensified now is technological change, which has been disruptive and transformative since man discovered fire and writing. But now, the rapidity of both developing and disseminating new gadgets, products and processes,

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The end of the world — as we know it

has made the challenge of managing and adapting to technological change even more urgent and difficult. Moreover, widespread access to disruptive or even destructive knowhow and gear, such as cyber and bio-weapons, makes the techno-challenge a matter of life and livelihood for thousands, if not millions. The 2030 report closed with a quartet of “alternative worlds,” each of which brings to a dominant level one of four key factors that shape global conditions and decisions today. All these tendencies — rich-world isolationism, big-power cooperation, socioeconomic and international inequality, and non-government and citizen assertiveness — rarely operate by themselves. But as part of a common scenario planning method, each one is made a dominant phenomenon in each alternative world. In this way, every factor’s importance and impact are assessed and presented across a wide spectrum of issues and situations spanning the globe. In the real world, of course, all four tendencies, along with many others, pull at the world and its key players, urging them toward isolation or collaboration on global problems, animosity or partnership between haves and have-nots, and distrust and dominance or democratize devolution between public and private sectors, states and citizens. And the best part about Global Trends 2030 and other future-gazing exercises, the Mayan calendar included, is that humanity gets to shape tomorrow by their ideas, decisions and actions today, whatever the doomsayers may say. In short, reality is always a surprising black swan, never conforming even to the most brilliant anticipations.

News & Strategy Alerts World What the new leaders in Tokyo and Seoul mean for Asia New Japanese Prime Minister Abe aims to revive the economy and stand up to China. The Philippines may gain from both initiatives Seoul’s new leader Park called for reconciliation with the North. Let’s hope Pyongyang takes the challenge

Re-elected five years after resigning as prime minister, new Japanese leader Shinzo Abe on Dec. 26, has vowed to boost the economy and defend the nation’s interests, according to an Associated Press report. That includes addressing territorial disputes with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyutai islands in the East China Sea. Abe has also sought to revise Japan’s view of its wartime conquests, reportedly planning to revise a 1995 national apology for its invasion of neighboring countries in World War II. But the top mission is the economy, which may have entered another period of downturn, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Bank research. With reconstruction spending for the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami due to wind down, exports must again provide growth stimulus. But that boost has been slow in coming due to the global slump and China’s slowdown. South Korea has also a new president. After a tight race, reports Time magazine, South Koreans picked their new leader on Dec. 19 in the person of Park Geun Hye of the establishment Saenuri Party, the first female president of their country.

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Philippines to include other countries, as The Philippine Star reports. Apart from maritime security and economic assistance, having Japan’s know-how and aid can also help the Philippines in disaster response and risk reduction. Partnership with Japan could also help mitigate the impacts of climate change and boost the tourism industry.

In the first New Year address by a North Korean leader in 19 years, Kim Jong Un calls for better ties with the South and economic progress, boosting hopes for harmony The Guardian

Meanwhile, South Korea’s President-elect Park Geun Hye will most likely renew talks with its north neighbor, North Korea. Time reported that when North Korea torpedoed the South Korean naval ship Cheonan in March 2010, Seoul blocked nearly all trade with the North. Later that year, Pyongyang shelled Yeonpyeong Island, about 12 km from the North’s coastline.

While the election focused on domestic issues like regulating big business and improving the lot of middle class, Park’s foreign affairs matters more for the world. As with any leader in Seoul, the foremost challenge when she takes office in February is Pyongyang. Fortunately, the rare New Year's address by Kim Jong Un, the first in 19 years by a North Korean leader, called for improved ties with the South and economic progress.

Then-President Lee Myung Bak ordered the South Korean military to prepare for retaliatory strikes on the North’s missile bases in the event of further provocation. He also canceled inter-Korean Red Cross talks scheduled two days after the incident. In 2012, Pyongyang’s failed long-range rocket launch in April and a successful one in December further strained relations with Seoul.

Now, with Japan’s worries about China and South Korea’s perennial problems with the North, both countries are likely to stay close to their top military ally, the United States. And to hold fast with Washington’s other friends, such as Manila, which is keen to get handme-down military gear from Tokyo and Seoul.

Despite those provocative actions, President-elect Park called for reconciliation with the North on the very day of her election victory, The New York Times reported. She may enter into bilateral talks and agreements to improve economic ties and persuade North Korea to curtail its nuclear program as well as set the two Koreas on a path of reunification — the “100% completion of Korea.”

With Abe’s push to assert Japan’s interests vis-a-vis China, the Philippines may see stronger, possibly defense ties with Japan. As for the U.S., a strategic planning officer of its Pacific Command, Brigadier General Michael Compton, has raised the option of expanding its Balikatan military exercises with the

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Pyongyang will likely play tough at first and test Park’s mettle. But with its own new leader installed a year ago, the North may also be ready to try a different tack from its past aggressive stance. Maybe.

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Bringing Down the Death Toll from Disasters

Measures that can help save more lives when disasters strike By Marishka Noelle M. Cabrera

STRATEGY POINTS Typhoon Pablo claimed more than 1,000 lives, and left many others suffering from its other consequences: homelessness, hunger, and lack of electricity and water Reports say disasters are expected to become more severe in the coming years Building resilient cities, long-term planning, and strict implementation of laws and action plans are some measures to protect citizens from calamities

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he nation witnessed the wrath of Typhoon Pablo (international name Bopha) as it swept across eastern Mindanao, leaving over a thousand dead and hundreds more missing, per a GMA News Dec. 20 report. Hundreds of thousands of families have been affected, and many are still suffering from illness, lack of food, electricity, clean water, and decent shelter weeks after the deadly typhoon hit. At least 66,000 homes were destroyed, while damage is estimated at ₱24.22 billion. Among the worst-hit areas are Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley, areas that have been known to be typhoon-free most of the year. And just a year ago, Typhoon Sendong claimed the lives of more than 1,400 people when it hit Mindanao, as reported by ABS-CBN News in Dec. 2011, with the cities of Iligan and Cagayan de Oro among the hardest-hit areas. It has been said that the world will continue to experience extreme weather conditions, and that climate change is making them more intense. For instance, the report “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” published by the U.S. National Intelligence Council, cites a March 2012 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report in predicting that even though the number of cyclones is not likely to increase by 2030, “the destructive power of tropical storms will intensify.” Empirical evidence, the report notes, indicates that a general warming trend is impacting weather and ecosystems. According to the report: “Recent weather has been characterized by an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events—floods, droughts, tornadoes, glacial lake outbreaks, extreme coastal high-water levels, heat waves, etc.—and this pattern almost certainly will continue during the next 20 years.”

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The report also points out that, “owing to population growth and the expansion of urban centers and rural agriculture, more people and infrastructures will be vulnerable to such extreme weather events, the key unknown is whether improved disaster risk-management measures will be adopted to effectively cope with these changing conditions by 2030.”

Abnormal the new normal. “The abnormal is the new normal,” United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said at the high-level segment of the U.N.-backed climate change talks in December in Doha, Qatar. He cited other recent catastrophes, such as the floods in Beijing and Manhattan, drought from the United States to India, and reminded everyone that no one – rich or poor – is immune to climate change. With changing weather conditions facing the world today and in the future, what can the Philippines do to become disaster-proof?

The Philippines ranks high in disaster risk. The Philippines is the third most disaster-prone country in the world, following the small islandstates of Vanuatu and Tonga, based on the World Risk Index, as shown in the “World Risk Report 2012.” The index calculates the risk in relation to the extent by which communities are exposed to natural hazards such as storms, earthquakes or droughts, as well as their degree of vulnerability. The report from the Alliance Development Works, a group of German development and relief agencies, in cooperation with the United Nations University-Institute for Environment and Human Security and The Nature Conservancy, points to environmental degradation as a significant factor that reduces the adaptive capacity of communities in dealing with disaster risk, thus making them more vulnerable.

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Findings from the World Risk report underscore the role of socio-economic development in reducing disaster risk, even for countries with high exposure such as the Philippines To be sure, the World Risk report says very high exposure is a significant risk driver. However, a high development level of society can counteract this risk substantially, as in the case of the Netherlands. The country ranks 12th among states most at risk worldwide, yet social, economic, ecological, and institutional factors reduce the risk dramatically. In terms of risk ranking worldwide, the Netherlands ranks 51st. On the contrary, Liberia, which has relatively low exposure (number 113 in the Exposure Index), ranks 7th on the Vulnerability Index. Findings from the World Risk report underscore the role of socio-economic development in reducing disaster risk, even for countries with high exposure such as the Philippines. This shows government needs to play a major role in reducing the impact of disaster.

Tropical countries will continue to experience frequent heavy rainfall. In

“Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation,” a 2012 special report from the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “It is likely [emphasis in report] that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.” Countries in the high latitudes and tropical regions are particularly vulnerable as heavy rainfall associated with tropical cyclones are likely to increase because of continued warming, the report says. National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) Secretary General Jose Ramon Albert echoes this in an article on the NSCB site. Albert says the annual mean surface temperature in the Philippines rose by 0.65 degrees Celsius during the period 1951 to 2010, based on data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). This may explain why the number of hot days and warm nights is increasing. More importantly, Albert posits that while the frequency of tropical cyclones has not changed considerably, the characteristics of these hazards have changed. Typhoon Sendong, for example, was a relatively weak cyclone, but it brought great amount of rain. Citing data from a working paper entitled “Climate-Related Disasters in Asia and the Pacific,” Albert writes the paths of tropical cyclones are also changing, with pathways shifting towards central Philippines.

Strict implementation of laws and action plans is crucial. The Philippine government

covered substantial ground when it came up with action plans to mitigate the impact of disaster in the country. The Strategic National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction 2009-2019 (SNAP) under then-President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is a road map containing programs, activities, and desired outputs, as well as lead and responsible government agencies.

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For its part, the Climate Change Commission came up with the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change 2010-2022 (which may be downloaded from the Climate Change Commission site) to ensure and strengthen the adaptation of the country’s natural ecosystems and human communities to climate change. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan 2011 to 2028 provides an approach to disaster risk reduction and management based on four interrelated aspects: • • • •

Prevention and mitigation Preparedness Response Rehabilitation and recovery

proper contingency and developmental planning strategies are indispensable, and that it is only with public policy application of technology and geophysical and engineering knowledge that disasters can be effectively mitigated. Some of their recommendations include: • Strict implementation of Article 51 of the Water Code of the Philippines, which states banks of rivers and streams and shores of seas and lakes are subject to the easement of public use, and prohibits, among others, the building of structures of any kind • Known flood-prone areas should have strict guidelines pertaining to urban development in flood plains • Government should take longer-term actions to solve the growing urban population in Metro

(The CenSEI Report previously provided readers with the relevant features of the SNAP and the National DRRM plan, in the issue dated January 9-15, 2012) These road maps, as well as laws such as the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010 and the Climate Change Act of 2009, are in place, but the challenge lies in their strict implementation. Urban planner Nathaniel Einseidel, who was Manila’s planning chief from 1978-89, is quoted in an August Agence France-Presse (AFP) report in The Manila Times as saying, “It’s a lack of appreciation for the benefits of long-term plans. It’s a vicious cycle when the planning, the policies and enforcement are not very well synchronized.”

Addressing unresolved problems of planning and development. The floods brought about by typhoons Ondoy and Pepeng in 2009 highlight the unresolved problems of planning and development, posits a 2010 paper by University of the Philippines professors Carlo A. Arcilla, Ph.D., and Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Ph.D.. The authors conclude that

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Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Ph.D. delivers his lecture on climate change and disaster risk reduction Diliman Interactive Learning Center, University of the Philippines

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Manila and decongest the drainage system of illegal settlers • Improve weather forecasting of typhoon tracks Architect and urban planner Paulo Alcazaren raises the issue of the patchwork political structure in Metro Manila. He says in the AFP report that the 16 cities and towns that comprise the capital region, each with its own local government, often carry out their own infrastructure plans without coordination. Alcazaren points out that for government plans to be effective, it must re-draw or overlay existing political boundaries.

for Disaster Risk Reduction in its worldwide list of 29 model communities as “exemplars in disaster risk management and reduction,” in an Oct. 7 report in the Philippine Daily Inquirer. Albay province, Makati City, and San Francisco town on Camotes Island, Cebu, were noted for their “best practices” in challenges like flood management, early-warning earthquake reconstruction, and legislation.

international aid agency Oxfam Snehal Soneji called on President Benigno Aquino III to work with the local government of Cagayan de Oro City to work out safe relocation sites for the families displaced by Sendong. In a December 2011 news release by Oxfam posted on the PreventionWeb website, the destruction brought on by Sendong brings to the fore the need to empower local governments and communities to prepare for disaster.

In the U.N. report, “Making Cities Resilient 2012,” building resilient communities requires “the political will and intervention of active, competent local governments.” Resilience-building activities mentioned in the report include: building local alliances and ensuring that all departments understand their role in disaster risk reduction and preparedness; assigning a budget for disaster risk reduction and provide incentives for individuals, businesses, and the public sector to invest in reducing the risks they face; investing and maintaining critical infrastructure; and assessing the safety of schools and heath facilities, among others.

Three local government units have already been commended by the United Nations Office

Rebuild communities through alternative livelihood. When disaster ravages communities,

Empower local government units to better prepare for disaster. Country director for

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an atmosphere of despair prevails as victims struggle to get back on their feet. Government intervention in disaster rehabilitation and alternative livelihood becomes all the more necessary in restoring a sense of normalcy in the community. The International Labor Organization, together with the Department of Social Welfare and Development and the Department of Labor and Employment, for instance, helps typhoon-affected families in Iligan and Cagayan de Oro City “rebuild their lives though decent productive work,” according to a February article on the ILO site.

Address social vulnerability. Lastly, poverty reduction remains at the crux of the problem and should, thus, be at “the heart of all strategies at all levels,” the World Risk Report concludes. It, likewise, posits that extreme natural events do not necessarily turn into disasters. Rather, disaster risk is always made up of two components: exposure to natural hazards and climate change, and the other is social vulnerability. This means that disasters are also caused by social structures and processes within a society, and that governments are equally responsible for the fate of its citizens in the midst of extreme weather occurrences. Departing from the World Risk Report, formulating and implementing future strategies to reduce disaster risk in the Philippines should have a social development component. Decreasing social vulnerability by poverty reduction, the promotion of better coping capacities through good governance, and strengthening adaptive capacities through education are only some broad recommendations that can help spare citizens from catastrophic events.

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News & Strategy Alerts Nation

President Aquino, farmers, fisherfolk hold dialogue on APECO issue The 120 farmers, fisherfolk, and Agtas accused Aurora Pacific Economic Zone and Freeport Authority (APECO) of land grabbing and harassment, and were left unsatisfied over President Aquino’s solutions to the issue President Aquino ordered the National Economic Development Authority to review the project, but rejected calls to scrap APECO After marching 350 kilometers over 17 days from Aurora, Quezon to Manila to meet with President Benigno Aquino III, the 120 farmers, fisherfolk, and Agtas were left disappointed, according to a Dec. 12 report from Rappler. The marchers were accusing the Aurora Pacific Economic Zone and Freeport Authority (APECO) of land-grabbing and harassment. They also wanted the President to deny government funding to a project located in Casiguran, Aurora, to which the President replied that he was no dictator and that as long as the law remains in effect, he has the duty to implement it. As presented in The Philippine Daily Inquirer, the Casiguran marchers also presented the following demands: • Settlement areas for fisherfolk families displaced by the project; • Distribution of 105 hectares of prime agricultural land to 56 landless farmers of Sitio Reserva, Barangay Esteves; • Guidelines and measures to ensure the credibility and integrity in securing free and informed consent of the affected people in ancestral lands; • Ensuring respect for stewardship contracts of 90 households under the integrated forestry programs in 288 hectares of APECO-covered areas.

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Aquino ordered a review of the APECO, but rejected calls to scrap the project. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) would conduct an independent review of the project, and the marchers were assured they would be consulted. As of late, the supposedly weeklong review was extended by Aquino for another 2-3 months, the NEDA said in a Dec. 22 Inquirer report. In 2007, father-and-son duo Senator Edgardo Angara and Representative Juan Edgardo Angara of the lone district of Aurora authored Republic Act No. 9490, which created the Aurora Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA), according to the official site of Senator Angara. Congress passed R.A. No. 10083, known as the Aurora Pacific Economic Zone and Freeport Act of 2010, renaming the ecozone as such. In a Dec. 23 news report from the Inquirer, Angara defended the Casiguran free port as the APECO’s air and sea ports are the nearest to Benham Rise, an area potentially rich in minerals and natural gas. Further, Angara believes the port will take on strategic value as China continues to assert claims over supposed territories in the West Philippine Sea. As officials highlight the fruits that APECO will bring, people are reminded of the stark contrast between the idea of progress as defined by policymakers and businessmen, and development as felt by farmers, fisherfolk, and indigenous people whose lives are inextricably linked to nature—which will be greatly impacted by the creation of the ecozone. The government will be tested in its ability to balance competing interests, and discern which path of development it wishes to take. When President Aquino reminded the Casiguran people to be open-minded, he should remember that his role is not only to promote economic development, but to do so with the protection of the most vulnerable sectors in

mind. The Indigenous People’s Rights Act of 1997 states: “The State shall protect the rights of ICCs/IPs to their ancestral domains to ensure their economic, social and cultural well being...” If the APECO law is found to encroach on the rights of people living there and found to include lands marked for agrarian reform and ancestral domain claims, then there should also be no qualms in amending it.

The RH Law: What’s next for the Catholic Church? With the Reproductive Health Act in force, the Catholic Church in the Philippines must now employ both court action and mass advocacy to counter the new law. More than legal and political strategies, the Church must mobilize clergy and faithful to persuade Filipino couples that natural family planning is not only a morally upright method of birth control, but also an effective one. The recent collision between the Catholic Church and the Aquino administration over The Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act of 2012 (Republic Act No. 10354) brings to mind the perennial issue of separation of church and state. The Philippines, where 86% of the people are Catholics, is a democratic republic enshrining separation of Church and State in the Constitution (Article II, Section 6). The separation of Church and State is defined as “the principle that government must maintain an attitude of neutrality toward religion.” It also “prevents the government from officially recognizing or favoring any religion.” The tenet is an offshoot of the philosophy of John Locke, who had inspired America’s founding fathers. It was William Howard Taft, Governor-General during the

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American colonization, who introduced the principle in the Philippines.

of their children. In this area, it is not authorized to employ means contrary to the moral law.”

Nonetheless, Catholicism has had a deep influence in shaping Filipino society and embedded its worldview in the Filipino psyche and culture, noted academic Julius Bautista in “Church and State in the Philippines: Tackling Life Issues in a Culture of Death.” So also in government: For centuries, the Spanish friar wielded both religious and political authority in colonial towns, which were built around churches under Spain’s reduccion policy of conquest also implemented in the Americas.

The State legislates laws that it deems beneficial for its citizens while the Church imparts moral teachings as the hierarchy deems good for the faithful. However, not everything legal is moral, nor is everything popular necessarily right. St. Thomas Aquinas said that a law without a moral content is a perversion of law. Thus, even if seven out of every 10 Filipinos support the RH Bill, that doesn’t make it morally right in the eyes of the Church.

In the past quarter-century, the Church played an active role in “extra-constitutional interventions, most notably in the removal of Presidents Ferdinand Marcos and Joseph Estrada.” Politicians still seek the blessings of prominent religious leaders as a tacit form of endorsement. This influence is seen in legislation. Ever since Malta legalized divorce in 2011, the Philippines is now the only country that does not allow divorce. The Church has always opposed birth control, especially the use of contraceptives and abortion, with its policy articulated in Pope Paul VI’s encyclical Humanae Vitae. This has led to arguments, including one by 30 University of the Philippines economics professors, that the Church is hampering progress turning a blind eye to overpopulation. However, the Church insists that population is not the problem but the inequitable distribution of wealth. Furthermore, The Catechism of the Catholic Church (paragraph 2372) postulates: “The state has a responsibility for its citizens' well-being. In this capacity it is legitimate for it to intervene to orient the demography of the population. This can be done by means of objective and respectful information, but certainly not by authoritarian, coercive measures. The state may not legitimately usurp the initiative of spouses, who have the primary responsibility for the procreation and education

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Jesuit theologian Father Nicomedes T. Yatco, in his book Jesus Christ for Today’s Filipinos, posted a challenge to the Church to make its teachings more relevant to the everyday lives of the Filipinos. Many Filipinos are just nominal Catholics who may not have really internalized their faith to manifest in their daily conducts and dealings. The same is echoed by the theologian Lode Wostyn, CICM, in his book Doing Ecclesiology. Wostyn said that the Church has failed to effectively communicate with the people. Often, the clergy speaks in a metaphysical language that makes little sense to the ordinary people. With the RH Law signed for promulgation, the Aquino administration is calling for unity, an apparent bid to head off moves questioning RA 10354 in the Supreme Court and mobilizing Catholic voters against administration candidates. But more than legal and political strategies, the Church must first and foremost mobilize the clergy and the faithful to deliver its moral message to counter the State’s contraceptive program. “The Church advocates Natural Family Planning as the only morally acceptable way of practising responsible procreation,” declared the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines’ 1990 guidelines on population control. But Filipino couples must also be persuaded that NFP is not only upright, but also effective. The Church should take pains to deliver that message and not leave it to the State.

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Meeting Future Food and Water Demands through Technology Technological breakthroughs will be necessary to make the most of dwindling resources By Jerome Balinton

Infographic from “By the Numbers: Food Security in Asia and the Pacific,” October 2012, Asian Development Bank

STRATEGY POINTS Genetically modified food crops, precision farming, and irrigation are at the forefront of technological breakthroughs to meet increased global food and water demand, the U.S. National Intelligence Council says Growth in global population, increased incomes, urbanization, and dietary changes will all contribute to a surge in global food and water demand Climate change threatens global food security

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Meeting future food and water demands through technology

n the future, technological breakthroughs will be necessary to address the increased global demand for food and water, the United States’ National Intelligence Council (NIC) suggests in its “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” released in December, the fifth installment in its series aimed at stimulating strategic thinking by identifying future critical trends and potential discontinuities. The NIC predicts that the key technologies to be likely at the forefront to address the demand will include genetically modified crops, precision agriculture, and water-irrigation technologies.

million hectares, 8% of arable land worldwide. Generally, they are confined to the main traded agricultural crops. The following table shows the main GM crops grown in 2007. percentage in GM CROP AREA

SOYA 51%

MAIZE 31%

CANOLA 5%

COTTON 13%

Genetically modified crops. The NIC report

also identifies genetically modified (GM) crops as a key to meeting the challenge of providing sufficient and affordable food and fuel from plant crops for a world with an expanding population and a changing climate. “The rapidly evolving genetic knowledge of plant cells, enabled by the tools of molecular biology, is likely to accelerate during the next 15-20 years, providing the means to increase the yield of major food crops,” the NIC report says. However, according to the United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific’s “Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Asia and the Pacific (April 2009)” report, critics argue that GM crops threaten human health and the environment and will allow large corporations to tighten their grip over agricultural production and thus widen socio-economic disparities.

The UNESCAP report says that at this far the largest user of GM crops is the United States, with around 50% of the global GM crop area, followed by Argentina (19%), Brazil (15%), Canada (7%), and India (6%). The Asia-Pacific countries that plant significant amounts of GM crops are Australia, China, and India (cotton), and the Philippines (maize).

The UNESCAP report says that currently GM crops are used to a fairly limited extent. In 2007, the global area of approved GM crops was 114

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Graphic based on TCR compilation of data from “Sustainable Agriculture and Food Security in Asia and the Pacific,” United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, April 2009

Are GM crops safe for consumption?

According to the UNESCAP report, the other issue concerning the use of GM crops to meet global food

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demand is the risk. “There is again much uncertainty, with relatively little biosafety research to assess the health, environmental and socioeconomic risks,” says the report. However, according to a World Health Organization (WHO) primer on genetically modified foods, “GM foods currently available on the international market have passed risk assessments and are not likely to present risks for human health. In addition, no effects on human health have been shown as a result of the consumption of such foods by the general population in the countries where they have been approved.” According to WHO, different GMOs (genetically modified organisms) include different genes inserted in different ways, and this means that individual GM foods and their safety should be assessed on a case-by-case basis, and that it is not possible to make general statements on the safety of all GM foods.

The promise of precision agriculture. The

NIC Global Trends 2030 report says that precision agriculture holds promise for increasing crop yields by reducing the use of inputs such as seed, fertilizer, and water; minimizing the negative environmental impacts of farming, and improving the quality of crops. “The development of cost-effective, versatile, and highly automated forms of precision agriculture suitable for a wide range of farm types and sizes could help provide worldwide food security even in the face of resource scarcities and environmental restrictions,” the NIC says in the report. The NIC adds that trends in precision agriculture point to increasing automation of farm vehicles and implements. Within the next five to 10 years, autonomous tractors probably will begin to take on a full range of roles in large-scale farming,

which will begin to resemble automated manufacturing facilities. According to the International Rice Research Institute, precision agriculture aims to better match fertilizer applications with the spatial and temporal needs of the crop for nutrients. In large-scale farming, sophisticated technologies often based on crop sensors, global positioning systems, or remote sensing are being developed and used to carry out precision agriculture. However, IRRI also says that precision farming is unsuitable to most Asian rice farming, where fields and the entire landholding of one farmer are typically small—usually fractions of a hectare up to only a few hectares. Thus, sophisticated sensors must be replaced with other means for rapid, cost-effective acquisition and processing of location-specific information for a field. In Asian settings, where accessibility to computerbased decision tools giving field-specific guidelines and Internet access is limited, two alternative ways the farmers could get information are: mobile phones with SMS (short message service), and interactive voice response (IVR). “With such mobile phones, text messaging and call centers are options for getting information to farmers. These require trained staff to handle texts and calls and ensure that accurate, timely, and consistent information is provided to farmers,” the IRRI says. With IVR, a farmer calls a phone number with a voice recording that presents a menu of questions about the farmer’s rice field and growing conditions. The farmer answers each question by pressing an appropriate number on the keypad. Once all questions are answered, the farmer receives a text message with a guideline on the amounts, sources, and timings of

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8,900 cubic meters per hectare per year in Asia, where approximately half of the irrigated area is devoted to flooded rice production. China and India, which account for about 72% of the region’s agricultural withdrawal, average 7,500 cubic meters and 9,200 cubic meters per hectare, respectively. Other countries – the Philippines, Malaysia, Japan, South Korea, Nepal, and Sri Lanka -- show much higher withdrawal rates, ranging from 15,000 to 31,500 cubic meters per hectare per year. A guided tour through the Food and Agricultural Organization’s “Water at a Glance” report (2007).

fertilizer application for his or her specific rice field, the IRRI explains.

Improving irrigation. According to the United

Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization’s “Water at a Glance” report (2007), irrigation holds the most promise for increasing food productivity and security, provided it is managed efficiently and combined with other inputs such as fertilizers and improved seed varieties. Irrigation can increase yields of most crops by 100 to 400%. On this regard, water management will be critical to achieving global food security because agriculture today consumes approximately 70% of global freshwater supplies, and agricultural irrigation wastes about 60% of the water withdrawn from freshwater sources. Apart from wastage, however, irrigation as currently practiced is responsible for other problems, according to Wilfredo David in his paper, “Water Resources and Irrigation Policy Issues in Asia,” published in the first issue of Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development (June 2004). According to David’s research, the average water withdrawal per hectare of irrigated land is about

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“Irrigation places a heavy demand on water largely because of the very low water use efficiency of the predominantly irrigated flooded rice of tropical Asia. This large wastage results in undesirable hydrologic side effects such as waterlogging and salinity problems,” David reported in his paper. David also identified other adverse effects of irrigation, i.e., declines in water tables or piezometric water levels due to excessive pumping, as well as decreases in dry-season flows of major rivers due to massive water diversion for irrigation. He also reported that certain forms of irrigation (flood recession or inundation schemes) are adversely affecting wetlands and marshes, decimating the fish population. Water-table declines and dry-season river flow declines have been evident in the crop-growing areas of China, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, according to David.

Challenges to food, water security. According to the NIC Global Trends 2030 report, the demand for food, water, and energy will grow by approximately 35%, 40%, and 50%, respectively, owing to an increase in the global population to 8.3 billion in 2030 (UN estimate: 8.2 billion), up from 7.1 billion in 2012. In a longer-range projection from 2004, the UN Economic and Social Affairs Population

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CHANGES IN HISTORIC AND PROJECTED COMPOSITION OF HUMAN DIET AND THE NUTRITIONAL VALUE

towards 2030/2050, indicate that global food consumption per person (expressed as kilocalories/ person/day) will rise by an average of 0.29% yearly through 2030. As average income levels rise and more people gain access to adequate diets, the growth of food consumption will moderate to 0.15% a year during 2030–2050.

Changes in food demand. According to the Asian

Development Bank’s “Food Security and Poverty in Asia and the Pacific: Key Challenges and Policy Issues” (April 2012), as incomes increase growth in the world’s per capita grain consumption is expected to slow due to the low income elasticity of food, particularly for grains.

The ADB report says that with rising affluence, people usually shift their diets to a lower share of coarse grains and more meat, fruits, and vegetable oils. Rapid urbanization also contributes to the changing diets, as higher-value processed food, dairy products, and tropical beverages, such as coffee, become more readily available. Graph from “The Environmental Food Crisis: The Environment’s Role in Averting Future Food Crisis,” (2009), United Nations Environment Programme

Division predicted, in its “World Population to 2300” report, that global population would reach 8.9 billion in 2050. The growth in demand for food and water is also attributed to the increasing consumption patterns of an expanding middle class and swelling urban populations. Of the projected population in 2050, rapid growth will be concentrated in urban areas of less developed countries, particularly in Asia, the UNESA Population Division said in its report, “World Urbanization Prospects, The 2011 Revision” (March). Projections of the Food and Agriculture Organization, in a June 2006 interim report on world agriculture

Aside from rising global population, increasing average income levels, urbanization, and dietary changes, the NIC and ADB in both of their reports, raise the alarm that climate change also threatens global food security. According to FAO in its 2011 report, “The State of the World’s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture,” climate change brings an increase risk and unpredictability for farmers – from warming and related aridity, from shifts in rainfall patterns, and from the growing incidence of extreme weather events. Poor farmers in low-income countries are the most vulnerable and the least capable of adapting to these changes. The NIC said “climate change will worsen the outlook for the availability of these critical resources [food, water, and energy].”

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Meeting future food and water demands through technology

The ADB meanwhile said, “Growing pressure on ecosystems to produce food, as well as changing temperature and precipitation patterns, will have unpredictable and deleterious effects on existing food-producing resources. The continued or increased occurrence of extreme weather events will further exacerbate vulnerabilities of communities and natural systems.”

Agriculture and water. The increase in the demand in food production to feed the growing population in Asia and other parts of the world also mean increase in the demand for water, studies of the United Nations agencies suggest.

PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Infographic from “The Environmental Food Crisis: The Environment’s Role in Averting Future Food Crisis,” United Nations Environment Programme (2009).

The link between water and food is a simple one. Food production requires substantial amounts of water. Per the FAO’s “Water at a Glance,” agriculture is by far the biggest user of water, accounting for almost 70% of all withdrawals, and up to 95% in developing countries. While the daily drinking-water requirements per person are from two to four liters, it takes 2,000 to 5,000 liters of water to produce a person’s daily food. But the global freshwater resources that are used in food production and human consumption is facing scarcity, particularly in developing countries. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report, “Water for Food: Innovative Water Management Technologies for Food Security and Poverty Alleviation” (2011), several regions are already facing acute physical water scarcity – North Africa, South

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Asia, and the drier regions of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), “Water scarcity is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity today. More than 1.4 billion people live in water stressed river basins and by 2025, this number is expected to reach 3.5 billion,” UNCTAD reports. Having said all that, the above-mentioned UNCTAD report also says that there is enough water in the future, but only if we make better use of what is available. But how?

Drainage technologies. Irrigation and rainfall are usually the main issues in agricultural water management and so they attract the most attention. But in many situations, drainage – the reverse of applying water to crops -- also plays key part. Excess water is drained from the land in order to provide the right moisture conditions for crops to grow, the UNCTAD report said.

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WATER WITHDRAWAL AND USE BY SECTOR AND GEOGRAPHICAL REGION

Infograph from “Sick Water? The Central Role of Waste Water Management in Sustainable Development,” United Nations Environment Programme and UN Habitat, 2010.

“Drainage technologies are well known and established across the world but drainage is one of the neglected areas of AWM that deserves more recognition,” the report said. According to the report, in arid and semi-arid areas, where irrigation is indispensable for agriculture, drainage can prevent water logging and the build-up of salts in the soil profile, which comes from poorquality irrigation water. Drainage is also important in the humid and subhumid tropics, such as East and Southeast Asia and parts of West and Central Africa, where the main objective is to remove excess water from high or intense rainfall, according to the report. Lack of drainage and inadequate protection from flooding are major obstacles to agricultural development and constrain farmers from intensifying and diversifying their cropping, the report maintains.

Desalinization. Another innovative technology to make better use of saline water is desalinization, the process that removes salt from saline water to produce freshwater.

The UNCTAD report says that desalination processes have evolved significantly over the past 30 years, and this has led to the general acceptance of two main technologies, thermal and membrane, which together account for almost 98% of the world’s current desalination operating capacity – now in excess of 35 million cubic meters per day, much of which is in the Middle East. “Desalination is used mainly for drinking water and for industry. Estimates suggest that less than 10 percent of desalinated water is used for irrigation and this is mostly in Spain where desalination is heavily subsidized,” the report says. Aside from the drainage and desalinization technologies, the UNCTAD report says that other innovative strategies for managing sudden excesses of water and frequent dry spells include terracing, contour bunds, infiltration pits, tillage, integration of tree tops, and green manuring. The report says those strategies require little or no capital investment, the only challenge is for the farmers to identify pragmatic options for gradual

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Meeting future food and water demands through technology

improvement that are manageable by part-time farmers with limited skills and without access to regular extension advice.

Recovering wastewater. The UN Environment Programme and UN-Habitat report, “Sick Water? The Central Role of Waste Water Management in Sustainable Development” (2010), recommends that both the public and private sectors recognize wastewater as potential resource, as it points out that the world currently draws 70-90% of fresh water resources to grow food, after which the water is returned to the ecosystem mixed with agricultural chemicals, along with human and industrial sewage. “Wastewater treatment and reuse in agriculture can provide benefits to farmers in conserving fresh water resources, improving soil integrity, preventing discharge to surface and groundwater waters, and improving economic efficiency,” the report maintains. According to the report, defusing the wastewater crisis is achievable and measurable, but will require an entirely new dimension of investments. Currently, most of the wastewater infrastructure in many of the fastest growing cities is non-existent, inadequate, or outdated, and therefore entirely unable to keep pace with the demands of rising urban populations. According to the report, experience has shown that substantial investments done in the right manner can provide the required returns. However, finding a solution will require not only investment but also carefully integrated national to municipal water and wastewater planning that addresses the entire water chain: drinking water supply, production and treatment of wastewater, ecosystem management, agricultural efficiency and urban planning.

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News & Strategy Alerts Technology

Mind-controlled hand offers hope for the paralyzed Health technologies including mind-controlled prosthetics will be available in 15-20 years The very high cost of mind-controlled prosthetics could limit availability to well-off patients The technological breakthrough that started out from developing equipment for military purposes has evolved into useful equipment that will benefit persons with paralysis. The Lancet on Dec. 17 published a paper of University of Pittsburgh scientists who looked into “whether an individual with tetraplegia could rapidly achieve neurological control of a high-performance prosthetic limb using this type of an interface.” With further development “individuals with long-term paralysis could recover the natural and intuitive command signals for hand placement, orientation and reaching, allowing them to perform activities of daily living,” the Associated Press quoted the scientists as saying in a Dec. 17 news posted in the Philippine Daily Inquirer interactive portal. In The Lancet, the scientists said they implanted two 96-channel intracortical microelectrodes in the motor cortex of a 52-year-old individual who is paralyzed from the neck down, unable to move her arms and legs due to a condition called spinocerebellar degeneration. The Associated Press report stated that two weeks after the operation, the prosthesis was connected and the woman embarked on 14 weeks of training. After only the second day, she was able to move the limb through mind power. The training aimed at achieving skills in nine tasks,

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such as gripping and moving small objects, stacking cones, and bumping a ball so that it rolled outside a loose coil of wire. At the end, the volunteer completed the tasks with a success rate of up to 91.6%, and more than 30 seconds faster than at the start of the trial. The report says the researchers said they were sure this is a success as they used an exhaustive benchmark test designed to identify genuine changes and root out flukes or anecdotal evidence. One of the funders of the latest study is the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), a branch of the US Department of Defense that looks into futuristic technology with a potential military use, including wounded veterans. In September 2011, one of DARPA’s mechanical arms was successfully controlled via neural signals captured by a brain implant in 30-year-old volunteer Tim Hemmes, who was paralyzed seven years ago after a motorcycle accident damaged his spinal cord. In the following video, Hemmes touches the hands of his girlfriend for the first time in seven years, and gives her a high-five. This development is one of the health technological breakthroughs the US National Intelligence Council foresees in its “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” the fifth installment in its series aimed at stimulating strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and

Mindcontrolled hand offers hope for paralyzed UPMC

potential discontinuities in the future released on Dec. 10. “Human augmentation could allow civilian and military people to work more effectively, and in environments that were previously inaccessible,” the NIC said in its report. According to the report, successful prosthetics probably will be directly integrated with the user’s body. Brainmachine interfaces could provide “superhuman” abilities, enhancing strength and speed, as well as providing functions not previously available. This forecast has already evolved into something that could be of great help to people who need it. However, the report said the high cost of human augmentation means that it probably will be available in 15-20 years, and possibly only to those who are able to pay.

Beijing tightens controls on the Internet even more Chinese authorities already operate the most sophisticated system of censorship Censorship of the Internet in China is being tightened further, suggesting insecurity of the country’s new leaders over the Internet’s potential to disseminate information apart from party press releases

Governance of the Internet in China is being tightened, according to a Dec. 28 Associated Press report posted on the Philippine Daily Inquirer. The report says the new communist leaders are increasing already tight controls on Internet use and electronic publishing following a spate of embarrassing online reports about official abuses.

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“The measure suggests the newly installed leaders of the Communist government including Xi Jinping anxiety about the Internet’s potential to spread opposition to one-party rule and the insistence on controlling information despite promises of economic reforms,” the report said. According to the report, last week China’s legislature took up a measure to require Internet users to register their real names, a move that would curtail the Web’s status as a freewheeling forum to complain, often anonymously, about corruption and official abuses. Likewise, the report said the government says the latest Internet regulation before the National People’s Congress is aimed at protecting Web surfers’ personal information and cracking down on abuses such as junk e-mail. It would require users to report their real names to Internet service and telecom providers. According to the report, the main ruling party newspaper, People’s Daily, has called in recent weeks for tighter Internet controls, saying rumors spread online have harmed the public. In one case, it said stories about a chemical plant explosion resulted in the deaths of four people in a car as they fled the area. “Proposed rules released this month by the General Administration of Press and Publications would bar Chinese-foreign joint ventures from publishing books, music, movies and other material online in China. Publishers would be required to locate their servers in China and have a Chinese citizen as their local legal representative. “That comes after the party was rattled by foreign news reports about official wealth and misconduct,” the Associated Press report stated. Tightening controls on the Internet or censorship might be justified on some level to protect its citizens from

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In TED video, Michael Anti (aka Jing Zhao) talks about China’s internet censorship

fraud and crimes, but the possibility should not be discounted that the Chinese government is also wary about having alleged abuses exposed and discussed on the ubiquitous Internet. China has the world’s most complex Internet censorship system, featuring IP blocking, keyword filtering, DNS hijacking and so on, according to the study, “Internet Censorship in China: Where Does the Filtering Occur?,” by Xueyang Xu, Z. Morley Mao, and J. Alex Halderman. Meanwhile, according to “Freedom on the Net 2012: A Global Assessment of Internet and Digital Media,” as CNN puts it, China has the world's largest population of Internet users, yet the authorities operate the most sophisticated system of censorship. Its "great firewall" has become notorious for literally shutting down Internet "chatter" it views as sensitive. Earlier this year, censors blocked related search terms to prevent the public from obtaining news on prominent human rights activist Chen Guangcheng, who caused a diplomatic storm when he escaped house arrest and sought refuge in the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Despite calls to ease controls on the Internet which the human rights advocates insisted covered by the right to free expression and information, the Chinese government remains unmoved, saying that doing so would risk the security and economic growth of China.

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Youth bulge:

boon or burden?

Young cohorts can spur both economic development and conflict By Pia Rufino

STRATEGY POINTS Countries stand to benefit from a large and growing youthful populations but youthfulness can also contribute to instability in the absence of employment outlets By 2030, most countries will see a still-significant but shrinking number of youthful societies due to declining fertility and maturing populations

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2030, most countries will see a stillsignificant but shrinking number of youthful societies owing to declining fertility and maturing populations, the U.S. National Intelligence Council says in its predictive analysis “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds.” The tally of countries with youthful populations (with median age of 25 years or less) is projected to fall from 80 to about 50 by 2030 due to fertility declines.

Youthful labor force drives economic growth.

A 2001 National Bureau of Economic Research study says the so-called demographic dividend happens when the country has an increasing supply of young workers aged 15 to 64 years old, as cited in a Bloomberg Businessweek July 2012 article. “If supported by the right policies in public health, education, and finance, the dividend increases productivity,” the study concluded. A bigger and younger labor pool will drive economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member-states, especially the Philippines. The article cited Bank of America as saying, “As factories, jobs, and investment flow south to tap younger and cheaper labor, economic growth in the ASEAN is poised to accelerate, propelling the area’s currencies and fueling consumer and property booms.”

Based on the report, “aging countries face an uphill battle in maintaining their living standards while more youthful ones have the potential, owing to the “demographic dividend,” to gain an economic boost if they can put the extra numbers of youth to work.” (See charts below for median ages of country populations)

MEDIAN AGE OF COUNTRY-LEVEL POPULATIONS, 2010-2030

Youthful (25 or younger)

Mature (over 35 to 45)

Intermediate (over 25 to 35)

Post-mature (over 45) Charts from Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, U.S. National Intelligence Council , Dec. 2012, p. 21

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Asia Pacific houses more than half of the world's young people -- some 650 million between the ages of 10 and 24. In some parts of the region, young people make up nearly 20 per cent of the population. By 2030 youth population here is expected to be over 700 million, based on the United Nations Environment Programme website.

YOUTH: A PRECIOUS NATURAL RESOURCE

Projected median age, 2030

Japan, South Korea, and China are among the fastest-aging countries in the world, while developing nations in Southeast Asia are among the youngest in the region, the Bloomberg Businessweek article noted. Frederic Neumann, a senior economist at HSBC in Hong Kong, says the Philippines’ working-age population – those between 15 to 64 years old – will continue to increase, unlike in other Asian countries with older populations. He told The New York Times in August, “The Philippines stands out as the youngest population. As other countries see their labor costs go up, the Philippines will remain competitive due to the sheer abundance of workers joining the labor force.”

Shortage of young workers. The increasing life expectancy and declining birth-rates that leads to the greying of the population points to an unprecedented shortage of younger workers, according to the world's largest professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). In its 2008 study “Managing tomorrow’s people - Millennials at work: Perspectives from a new generation,” PwC says companies in 2020 will have to deal with complex workforce of different generational expectations and needs and suggests that the organizations “look seriously at the millennial generation” as this group is expected to drive the businesses forward in

Graphic from “Young Workers Give Southeast Asia an Edge,” Bloomberg Businessweek, July 26, 2012

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en ol vi

To determine the work expectations of Millennials, PWC surveyed a total of 4,271 graduates and among the key findings are:

the coming years. PwC defines “millennials,” or “Generation Y,” as those who entered the workforce after July 1, 2000.

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oy m

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Youth bulge: Boon or burden?

• Millennials expect job mobility and are enthusiastic about working overseas • The millennials will not reject traditional work practices. The majority expect some element of office-based work, and only 3% expect to work mainly at home or other locations. Most expect to be working mainly regular office hours or within flexible hours. • Training and development is the most highly valued employee benefit. The number choosing training and development as their first benefit choice is three times higher than those who chose cash bonuses.

Youth and violence. The NIC Global Trends

2030 report also sees a link between youthful populations and violence. It says around 80% of all armed civil and ethnic conflicts (with 25 or more battle-related deaths per year) have started in countries with youthful populations (median age of 25 years or less). According to the NIC, with the developing nations' maturing age structure, a drop in the number of intrastate conflict is expected.

A shortage of skilled workers is also among “Five Trends that Are Dramatically Changing Work and the Workplace” (2011) that the workplace furnishings supplier Knoll foresees in the years ahead. The problem: there are fewer younger people to replace those of the Baby Boomer generation (widely regarded as those born from 1946 to 1964) who will be eligible to retire in the next few years. The trend requires acceptance of Generation Y’s distinct work style expectations and active participation of the older workers, the study posits.

Many participants of the anti-government protest movements across the Middle East, where youth aged 15 to 29 comprise the largest proportion of the population, young people who are frustrated over a lack of jobs. In a Feb. 2011 interview with the Council on Foreign Relations on the demographics of Arab protests, Ragui Assaad, professor at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey School of Public Affairs, says the youth bulge is turning out to be a challenge for the region because governments have failed to put together economic policies that make use of these human resources.

The study also cites a 2010 Johnson Controls study on work preferences of Generation Y finds that the group “embraces greater work autonomy and flexibility and yet still holds on to some traditional values about work and the workplace.”

On the other hand, "In East Asia and Southeast Asia with their open economies and good education systems, they've been able to use the youth bulge as an advantage," he remarks.

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If a large cohort of young people cannot find employment and earn satisfactory income, the youthbulge will become a demographic bomb, because a large mass of frustrated youth is likely to become a potential source of social and political instability - Justin Yifu Lin, “Youth Bulge: A Demographic Dividend or a Demographic Bomb in Development Countries?”, blog post on “Let’s Talk Development,” Jan. 5, 2012

Different research has shown mixed results as to whether youth bulges lead to conflict. Some studies suggest that youth bulges are associated with an increased risk of political violence, but the importance of youth bulges in causing political violence is expected to fade in most parts of the world over the next decades because of declining fertility, according to the 2012 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs paper “A clash of generations? Youth bulges and political violence.” Meanwhile, the United States Agency for International Development 2010 briefing note “Youth Bulges and Conflict” found a common finding across the latest studies: Youth bulges alone do not cause conflict. However, “when unstable politics and social deterioration are combined with large numbers of disadvantaged young men, the new problems arise.”

Put them to work. According to a World Bank blog posted on January 2012, youth employment

is a key to country’s success in turning the youth bulge into a demographic dividend. However, if a large cohort of young people cannot find employment and earn satisfactory income, the youth bulge will become a demographic bomb, because a large mass of frustrated youth is likely to become a potential source of social and political instability. In 2011, 74.8 million youth aged 15 to 24 were unemployed, an increase of more than 4 million since 2007, based on figures from the International Labor Organization’s “Global Employment Trends 2012.” According to that report: “Globally, young people are nearly three times as likely as adults to be unemployed. Moreover, an estimated 6.4 million young people have given up hope of finding a job and have dropped out of the labor market altogether. Even those young people who are employed are increasingly likely to find themselves in part-time employment and often on temporary contracts.” In Southeast Asia, youth unemployment continues to remain a major challenge, with unemployment rate of 13.4% in 2011 or five times higher than that for adults, according to the ILO. The factors that contributes to unemployment: inability of education and training systems in the region to keep pace with the rapid structural transformation taking place and hence the changing skills requirements.

Most neglected. “The world’s 1.2 billion

adolescents and young adults are probably the most neglected—by policy analysts, business thinkers, and academic researchers—of all the age groups,” writes David E. Bloom in the International Monetary Fund quarterly publication Finance and Development March 2012 issue. Bloom is a Professor of Economics and Demography at the Harvard School of Public Health.

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Youth bulge: Boon or burden?

In his analysis, “Youth in the Balance,” Bloom says today’s youth who will enter the labor force in the future “will not necessarily be more healthy and productive than their parents.” The factors that jeopardize their health for years to come: decline in physical activity (a consequence of urbanization and a transition to more sedentary occupations) and rising obesity and alcohol and tobacco consumption. Less stability—at home and on the job—has negative implications for the emotional and mental health of the world’s young people.

What to do? Bloom says in order to benefit from large

News & Strategy Alerts Health/Lifestyle

Making brain cells from urine Scientists have discovered a method to transform cells in human urine into valuable neurons. The benefits of using induced pluripotent stem cells from cells present in urine are: the cells can be sourced from any patient and it avoids the debate over the ethics of using embryonic stem cells

share of youth in the population the following measures should be considered: • Improvements in training and education (at all levels, in both access and quality)

• Mandatory or volunteer-service programs— ranging from national military service to volunteer organizations such as the U.S. Peace Corps— can socialize young people, instill a sense of community, and boost self-esteem, while imparting marketable skills • Cultivating financial literacy, health literacy, and entrepreneurial skills • Provision of reliable and modern infrastructure, more carefully tuned labor-market policies, greater access to financial markets, governance that takes youth issues into account, and universal health care • Addressing the challenges of gender, income, and rural urban disparities, and managing the expectations of young people • Setting up forums to hear the concerns and ideas of adolescents and young adults and stimulating change

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Now, what comes out of one end of man may well find its way to the other end. Urine could become a ready source of brain cells, according to a Dec. 9 report from Nature. The article cites a study in Nature Methods on a “relatively straightforward way to persuade cells discarded in human urine to turn into valuable neurons.” In the process, the cells become neural progenitor cells, which can develop into brain cells. “These precursor cells could help researchers to produce cells tailored to individuals more quickly and from more patients than current methods,” the study says. Since the technique does not involve embryonic stem cells, it avoids both moral issues from the use of fetuses, as well as health concerns when transplanted in people, including the risk of causing tumors. The report also mentions an earlier study by stemcell biologist Duanqing Pei and his colleagues at China's Guangzhou Institutes of Biomedicine and Health, under the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Pei’s research shows that kidney epithelial cells in urine could be programmed into Induced pluripotent stem cells, or iPS cells.

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elimination from the organism, and efficacy—is vital for further use in cell therapy. Cited in the Nature report, geneticist Marc Lalande, who creates iPS cells to study neurogenetic diseases at the University of Connecticut Health Center in Farmington, says the benefit of sourcing cells from urine is that it can be collected from nearly any patient.

Diseases or conditions where stem-cell treatment is

Moreover, the use of iPS cells “avoid the heated debates over the ethics of embryonic stem cell research because embryos and oocytes are not used,” according to a 2009 paper published in Endocrine Reviews on the ethical issues in stem cell research.

promising or emerging Illustration from Wikipedia

Researchers routinely reprogram cultured blood and skin cells into iPS cells, the Nature report notes, but urine is a much more accessible source. The iPS cells can go on to form any cell in the body. In a 2011 study, researchers from the Department of Neurology of the University of Michigan discussedhow to use basic stem cell research in translational therapies for patients with ailments of the brain and nervous system, such as Huntington disease, Parkinson’s, and Alzheimer’s. The abstract says: “With a greater understanding of the capacity of stem cell technologies, there is growing public hope that stem cell therapies will continue to progress into realistic and efficacious treatments for neurodegenerative diseases.” Researchers found that “neural stem cells from specific brain areas or developed from progenitors of different sources are of therapeutic potential for neurodegenerative diseases,” in a 2012 study published in the British Medical Bulletin. Further, an in-depth understanding of the biological properties of neural stem cells—including the mechanisms of therapy, safety,

Campaign to combat child malnutrition and low body weight The Philippines needs to double its effort in reducing the prevalence of underweight children Malnutrition among infants and young children was found to be associated with the mothers’ level of education, health, and nutrition status Malnutrition is estimated to be one underlying cause of child mortality Figures from the Department of Education (DepEd) nutritional status report as of Aug. 31 show there are 562,262 kindergarten and elementary pupils in public schools who are severely malnourished, as cited in a December Philippine Daily Inquirer report. However, DepEd school-based feeding programs can only cover 42,372 school children, or 7.54% of the

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identified severely malnourished pupils, in 1,010 public elementary schools in 28 provinces. Meanwhile, a study by the Food and Nutrition Research Institute of the Department of Science and Technology ((FNRI-DOST) revealed that almost one in every three Filipino children aged 6 to 10 is underweight and under-height for their age, due to undernourishment, as reported in The Philippine Star in December. Malnutrition is projected to be one underlying cause of child mortality, according to the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) 2009 discussion paper “Global Study on Child Poverty and Disparities: the Case of the Philippines.” To address the problem, various policies were put in place—from infant feeding to micronutrient supplementation to weight and height monitoring. The PiDS paper also cites a 2003 Situation Analysis of Children and Women in the Philippines, which says that malnutrition among infants and young children is linked to mothers’ level of education, health, and nutrition status.

related to universal primary education, promotion of gender equality and empowerment of women, improvements of maternal health and combating HIV/AIDS.” To meet MDG goal of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger, the Philippines needs to halve the proportion of underweight children under five-years-old three years from now—from 27.3% in 1990 to 13.7% in 2015, according a Dec. 10 Philippine Information Agency report. However, the country needs to double its efforts in achieving the goal of reducing the prevalence of underweight children. According to the 2011 updating survey by the FNRI-DOST, 20.2% of Filipino children 0 to 5 years old are underweight According to UNICEF, the following strategies are proven to be effective in reducing the number of undernourished children: providing Vitamin A supplements for children, protecting newborns from iodine deficiency by campaigns promoting consumption of iodized salt as well as breast-feeding. Further, UNICEF says frequent weighing of infants helps ensure that undernutrition is detected early and addressed.

According to United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), World Health Organization, and the World Bank joint child malnutrition estimates, “child malnutrition impacts cognitive function and contributes to poverty through impeding individuals’ ability to lead productive lives. In addition, it is estimated that more than one third of under-five deaths are attributable to undernutrition.” The joint report also highlights the important of reducing child malnutrition prevalence in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)—particularly those related to the eradication of extreme poverty and hunger and child survival. “Given the effect of early childhood nutrition on health and cognitive development, improving nutrition also impacts MDGs

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2009 You Tube video on hunger, malnutrition and child deaths uploaded by MaximsNewsNetwork

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