U.S. Travel Outlook
Research Review EXAMINING CURRENT INDUSTRY TRENDS Dear Travel Colleague: Happy New Year! What a difference a year makes! After many surprising new challenges from ash clouds to oil spills to bed bugs, 2011 begins with the U.S. apparently poised for its strongest year of economic growth since the recession began three years ago. And, hopefully with better economic performance will come continued improvement in travel. Economy Looks Stronger at Year End The economy is stronger than originally thought and forecasts are once again being revised upward. Retail sales strengthened in the later months of the year, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The National Retail Federation predicted in-store and online holiday spending would hit $451 billion, up 3.3 percent over 2009. Online shopping increased more than 15 percent this holiday season as consumers spent $36 billion online between October 31 and December 24, 2010. This briskness in holiday sales is being attributed at least in part to "frugality fatigue" and pent-up demand, attitudinal shifts that might benefit travel as well. Gallup also reported that Americans' overall discretionary spending surged in the week ending December 26, especially among upper income households. Renewed spending among this group will likely be encouraged by the recent new tax legislation that will extend the Bush-era tax cuts for two additional years, extend unemployment benefits another 13 months and temporarily reduce the Social Security payroll tax by two percentage points. According to Travel Weekly, the White House estimates the payroll tax cut would put an additional $112 billion into circulation. These factors, coupled with the "wealth effect" associated with increasing stock values, could help to solidify this pick-up in spending that is so critical to future economic growth and the creation of new jobs. Employment news has also been more encouraging in recent weeks. The Washington Post reports that "the 388,000 people who filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits [during the week ending December 25] were the fewest since the summer of 2008, below the symbolic 400,000 threshold that many economists believe divide a healthy and unhealthy labor market." Nevertheless, there are some weak signs, and downside risks remain. Financial troubles in Europe could spill over into U.S. markets. The U.S. business sector still remains reluctant to spend on either new investment or increased hiring despite strong profits and ample cash balances. And,
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the price of oil is on the rise and could approach levels not seen since 2008 when gasoline soared above $4 a gallon, thus reducing Americans' disposable income and perhaps their spending once again. Some think gas prices will continue to rise to as high as $5 per gallon by 2012, contributing to higher travel prices as well. Most economists, however, seem fairly confident that the recovery is taking hold and becoming broader and more durable. Macroeconomic Advisers is now forecasting that the U.S. economy will grow 4.4 percent in 2011, Moody's Analytics expects 3.9 percent growth and Goldman Sachs predicts 3.4 percent growth. The Washington Post reports, "Any of those numbers would represent an improvement over 2010. Although official government numbers are not out, gross domestic product looks to have grown 2.7 percent over the past year, Moody's estimates." Despite the relatively good economic news and increasingly bullish forecasts by leading economists, American consumers are less sanguine. Gallup reports that they ended the year "in a rather sour mood," with only 17 percent satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. The latest Conference Board report also shows weakness in consumers' mood. The Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in November, decreased slightly, falling from 54.3 to 52.5 in December. Despite the decline, Lynn Franco, Director of the Consumer Research Center at The Conference Board, noted that consumer confidence is no worse off today than it was a year ago, but that it remains tepid and cautious. But, there is also evidence that Americans now appear more optimistic about the economic outlook for the upcoming year: 58 percent of Americans say "2011 will be better than 2010, 20 percent say 2011 will be worse, and 21 percent say it will be the same," according to Gallup. Americans living in the East and Midwest are a little more optimistic than those living in the South and West. Americans making $75,000 or more in annual income are slightly more optimistic than other Americans, and Democrats are considerably more optimistic than their independent and Republican counterparts, says Gallup. Air Travel Growth Shifting to More Normal Pace International air travel growth slowed in November, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). Passenger traffic rose 8.2 percent from a year earlier, slower than the 10 percent growth posted in October. Eleven-month global international traffic growth reached 8.5 percent. And, the level of international air travel is now 4 percent above the pre-recession peak of early 2008. Nonetheless, "the industry is shifting gears in the recovery cycle," said IATA Chief Executive Officer Giovanni Bisignani told Bloomberg. "Growth is slowing toward normal historical levels in the 5 to 6 percent range. Relative weakness in developed markets is being offset by the momentum of economic expansion in developing markets." IATA has revised its forecasts for 2010 and 2011 yet again, now predicting the global airline industry will net $15.1 billion in 2010 and $9.1 billion in 2011. Despite the turnaround, the industry's net profit margin for 2010 is "pathetic" at 2.7 percent, according to Bisignani. It is expected to fall back to 1.5 percent in 2011. Air travel demand also picked up in the U.S. According to the Air Transport Association of America (ATA), domestic passenger enplanements rose 5.8 percent in November 2010 while international enplanements were up an even larger 8.0 percent. Passenger revenue rose 14.5 percent in November compared to the same month in 2009, marking the 11th consecutive month of revenue growth. Miles flown by paying passengers rose 6.5 percent while the average price to fly one mile rose 7.5 percent.
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During the past month, reports have continued about the new air travel security procedures. A recent study by the U.S. Travel Association and Consensus Research concluded that current air travel security screenings are damaging the U.S. travel industry, as well as the U.S. economy. A majority of the U.S. adults responding to the survey believe security protocols could be more effective (75% say "there has to be a better way") and less invasive at the same time. In releasing the survey, U.S. Travel President and CEO Roger Dow said there are many ways to screen passengers well in advance and prior to hitting checkpoints at the airport; the current system treats every traveler equally – a major time and resource waster. U.S. Travel is supporting the call for a Trusted Traveler Program that would remove frequent and pre-qualified travelers from many of the current security hassles. U.S. Travel has also convened a Blue Ribbon Panel for Frictionless Aviation Security comprised of industry and security experts and former government officials. The panel is expected to issue its report and recommendations next month on how to improve air travel security in a way that maximizes security and minimizes the burden on travelers. Continuing Strengthening Seen in U.S. Lodging Industry The U.S. lodging industry continues to improve. According to Smith Travel Research (STR), the U.S. hotel industry posted these results for November 2010: supply (+1.4%), demand (+10.5%), occupancy (+ 9.0%), average daily rate (ADR) (+2.5%) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) (+11.8%). According to Mark Lomanno, STR's president, "the most encouraging result this month is an acceleration of room rate growth across a wide swath of the industry. A continuation of this trend bodes very well for 2011." Among the top 25 markets, New Orleans continued to show the strongest performance. In addition, three other markets – Atlanta, Chicago and Denver – also posted RevPAR increases exceeding 20 percent. The latest Rubicon Perspective also indicates that room rates are improving and finally approaching pre-recession levels. Group business continues to strengthen, with group commitments for the next 12 months up nearly 6 percent year-over-year. New group sales over the past month, or group pace, remains strong, up 15.5 percent over the comparable period last year. Transient demand is leading the way, ahead by 7.4 percent versus the same time last year, with transient pace up 5.7 percent. Business demand (transient weekday retail and negotiated segments) continues to drive the growth, with commitments up 13.4 percent year-over-year. Leisure occupancy (transient discount and qualified segments) is up 1.5 percent year-over-year. Readers might find Jan Freitag's recent analysis of "the clarity of the crystal ball" at STR an interesting and informative read. Reviewing several recent years of forecasts, Mr. Freitag concludes that in general, STR analysts are a little bit too optimistic when forecasting demand, no matter if forecasting increases or decreases. He found ADR forecasts to be too timid, that is neither positive enough in good times nor negative enough in bad times. STR plans to update its forecasts much more frequently (at least quarterly, if not more often) and is also now offering 18-month forecasts for major markets as well as chain-scale forecasts. As the hotel recovery continues to build, Colliers PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) has edged up its forecasts for U.S. hotel performance for 2010 and re-affirmed the outlook for 2011. In the recently released December 2010 edition of Hotel Horizons®, PKF-HR forecasts that lodging demand grew 7.8 percent in 2010, nearly four times more than the increase in supply, producing a record 5.7 percent rise in occupancy. As anticipated, ADR growth turned positive in the third quarter; however, and consistent with history, ADRs have, and will continue to, lag the recovery in
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occupancy. Despite the strong growth in demand, PKF-HR is still forecasting a slight 0.1 percent decline in hotel ADR for 2010. The 0.1 percent decline in ADR combined with the 5.7 percent increase in hotel occupancy results in an annual RevPAR gain of 5.6 percent for 2010. PKF-HR's outlook for 2011 has also improved, albeit to a limited degree, as follows: demand (+3.3%) and RevPAR (+6.3%). While hoteliers are expected to become more aggressive in raising ADRs, pricing power is not expected to fully return until 2012, which will contribute to RevPAR gains of 10.4 percent in 2012 and 10 percent in 2013. Hotels in the top 50 city markets outperformed national trends in 2010. Part of this reflects the return of group demand as larger markets became more appealing because of low room rates. 2010 was the year in which urban markets represented significant value as a meeting destination. Modest Gains in Leisure Travel Expectations are that travel performed well during the holiday season. While final numbers are not yet available, ATA predicted that air travel would be up 3 percent this holiday season over 2009. AAA also projected a 3 percent increase in travel between December 23 and January 2, with 92.3 million Americans expected to take a trip 50 miles or more away from home. Leisure travel is also expected to do better in 2011, with a 1.6 percent increase in volume predicted by U.S. Travel. A recent survey of Travel Leaders travel agencies found that, based on current bookings so far for 2011 and conversations with clients, the majority (88%) expect their clients to spend the same (50%) or more (38%) on travel in 2011. According to the survey, last-minute leisure travel is starting to decrease and as travel returns to more normal levels, optimum pricing will require more advance planning. Data on both domestic and international leisure booking windows suggest that the number of travelers booking within four weeks of departure is down to 23 percent from nearly 30 percent, while the percentage of clients booking eight weeks out or more is up to 61 percent, compared to about 55 percent last year. Over the past few years, consumers have come to expect a plethora of travel deals and bargains. but 2011 may be the last year to find many of these as travel suppliers begin to raise rates and fares in earnest. What Trendwatching.com calls "pricing pandemonium" is likely to continue as we see more upscale hotels and resorts offering short-term, steeply discounted rooms via "flash sales," on members-only sites like Jetsetter, Vacationist and SniqueAway and through social media channels. Peter Yesawich, Ypartnership's chairman and CEO, predicts that driven by the popularity of Groupon and LivingSocial, the "collective buying craze will begin to re-shape demand, particularly for travel service providers who are long on inventory on selected dates and disinclined to spend scarce marketing dollars to drum up demand the old fashioned way."
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Business Travel Continues its Comeback In the business travel arena, we expect continuing recovery as well, along with more crowded airplanes and higher prices. Pretty much all of the forecasts call for higher airline and hotel prices in 2011. USA Today reports that according to American Express Business Travel, the average domestic airfare during Q3 '10 was up 6 percent over the previous year. International airfares increased by 8 percent during the same period. Amex projects domestic economy class airfares to rise 2 to 6 percent and long-haul international business class fares to climb 3 to 7 percent in 2011. In addition, jet fuel prices have increased 40 percent in the past 18 months, according to ATA. Many expect fuel prices to continue to rise, contributing to fare gains. And, STR's latest forecast suggests that hotel rates will rise 3.9 percent in 2011. One possible bright spot may be car rentals, where Amex projects strong competition might force a 2 percent drop in rental car prices. In the meetings arena, a recent IMEX America survey revealed these major trends expected by meeting industry executives this year: (1) Environmentally conscious meeting management will increase as many organizations put their green event policies in writing and begin tracking their efforts. The "locavore" movement, which emphasizes the consumption of locally produced and sourced food, is also expected to continue this year. (2) Meeting technologies such as telepresence and Eyeliner (a system created by the company Musion that uses high-definition video projection to allow remote moving images to appear to be live on stage, i.e. holograms) will allow more options to meeting planners. Hybrid events, blending live and virtual elements, will become better integrated and more common. (3) Social media will be used more to make content more personalized to specific individuals than for mass outreach. (4) Mobile meetings apps will continue to proliferate but the challenge will be to integrate them appropriately into events. (5) Incentive travel will increase with more bookings at luxury and international properties/destinations. (6) Meeting planners will continue to look for ways to engage with their host communities to create "give-back activities" that leave a positive legacy.
And a just-released survey conducted jointly by the Incentive Research Foundation and Corporate Meetings & Incentives found that incentive travel budgets are expected to improve slightly in 2011. Twenty-three percent of respondents expect their budgets to be slightly better in 2011 than in 2010. That's more than twice as many as the 10 percent who last year predicted that 2010 budgets would be slightly better than in 2009. Only 22 percent of respondents expect budgets this year to be lower than in 2010; 10 percent expect them to be "significantly lower." However, that still adds up to a third of all respondents. International Travel Achieves New Record in 2010
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International travel worldwide has bounced back strongly and is expected to have hit a new record in 2010. IPK's World Travel Monitor indicates world travel volume and spending rose 5 percent and 7 percent, respectively, last year. 2010's recovery was powered by emerging markets in Asia, South America and the Middle East. Big spenders last year in terms of international tourism expenditures include China (+22%), the Russia Federation (+26%) and Brazil (+54%), according to the UN World Tourism Organization. Among the 10 largest source markets, there were positive but modest increases from Germany (+1.5%), the U.S. (+2.5%), France (+2%), Italy (+3%) and Japan (+8%). Looking ahead to 2011, the world economy is expected to continue to recover and international travel will likely increase another 3 to 5 percent according to IPK's World Travel Monitor and UNWTO forecasts. Much more detail is available in the ITB World Travel Trends Report 2010/2011 prepared by IPK International. In the U.S., 45.3 million international visitors traveled to the U.S. during the first nine months of 2010, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, up 11 percent over the same period of 2009. September 2010 registered the 12th consecutive monthly increase in U.S. arrivals and the ninth consecutive month of growth in U.S. travel and tourism-related exports. Growth continued in October when international visitors spent an estimated $11.9 billion on travel to, and tourismrelated activities within, the United States, up 18 percent over the same month the prior year. International visitors have spent an estimated $111.5 billion on U.S. travel and tourism-related goods and services year to date (January through October), an increase of 11 percent when compared to the same period last year and the sixth consecutive month of double-digit growth. During the same period, Americans spent just over $85.8 billion abroad year to date (up 4%) – resulting in a $25.7 billion trade surplus for travel and tourism through the first 10 months of 2010. 2011 should be a very exciting year for international tourism as the new Corporation for Travel Promotion gets up and running. President Obama has agreed to appear in a video promoting travel that is expected to debut at U.S. Travel's International Pow Wow in May in San Francisco. The Board of the new Corporation has launched a basic "B-to-B" website to keep industry and government officials informed and is exploring usage of the Discover America brand. Travel Weekly reports the Board is also working to retain an executive search firm to recruit a CEO. Data Suggest Industry is On the Mend According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, spending on travel and tourism jumped 8 percent in Q3 '10, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Air travel was the biggest contributor to the gain and was reported to have been driven by increased demand as the cost of flying declined. Air carriers also have increased hiring for the first time since early 2008. Overall, total tourism-related employment increased 2 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. The biggest gain in tourism-related employment was in accommodations, which posted a 2 percent jump, the largest increase since 2002. Hotels raised their prices in the third quarter, though at a slower pace than in the second quarter. Overall spending on accommodations was up 9.5 percent. Though tourism output continues its upward trend, the Wall Street Journal reports, it remains below the peak set in the third quarter of 2007 before the recession hit. Suggested Readings As the year drew to a close, many posted their lists of major trends and forecasts. Some of the most interesting include:
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Insights December 2010 – Are We There Yet?, Peter Yesawich, YPartnership 2010 In Review Dusting Off a Crystal Globe: 11 Travel Trends for 2011 Preview 2011: Executives Outline Expectations Preview 2011: Hotels Preview 2011: Airlines Preview 2011: Cruise Preview 2011: Technology Trendwatcher's 11 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2011 Rohit Bhargava's The Top 15 Marketing & Social Media Trends To Watch In 2011 11 Social Media New Year's Resolutions for 2011 With all my very best wishes for a healthy, happy and prosperous New Year! Sincerely,
Suzanne Cook, Ph.D. Senior Advisor, U.S. Travel Association
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