www.emico.co
FORECASTING ECONOMICS
The weather and economy are inextricably entwined
P WHEN IT COMES TO CONSTRUCTION, UNANTICIPATED WEATHER CAN CAUSE COSTLY DELAYS.
14
NETWORKS
eople have been trying to predict the weather for millennia and have been using science to do so for the last 150 years. When Admiral FitzRoy set up what was to become the Met Office in the 1860’s, it was primarily in response to the shocking loss of life in British waters; 7,402 ships were wrecked off the coasts with a loss of 7,201 lives between 1855 and 1860 alone. What started as little more than an advance warning system where harbours were informed by telegraph that a storm was on the way, is now the governmentbacked Met Office, costing £80m annually and employing over 1,500 people. It’s not just about whether to bring an umbrella with you when you leave the house. Back in the 1860’s, fisherman had their lives saved by advanced storm warnings, and farmers could decide whether to hold of on planting crops. Fairs, fetes and markets would be scheduled around them. That impact on businesses and trade continues today, in a much more pronounced fashion. Accurately predicting the weather is now big business, with companies like CSIRO working with private clients in different sectors. The aviation and marine industries are two of the biggest that need access to this data, with adverse weather conditions adding time and cost to trips. Utilities companies are also keenly interested in the weather, and climate in general. Accurate information allows them to know what energy will de demanded on a particular day. If it’s cold, there will be demand for lots of gas for the fire and central heating, if it’s hot then electricity for the air conditioning. Then of course there is trade. The weather has a huge impact on business; in the UK a difference of 1°C usually has a 1% impact on sales. With a
