A New Autopia?

A NEW AUTOPIA?

With the rise of AI and an increasingly automated workforce, what does the future hold for employees?

Artificial intelligence will free humans from work. We will be able to move on to a more meaningful existence. - Ben Goertzel, Chief Scientist, Hanson Robotics

Our world is driven by technology, a sentence with an almost literal meaning when referring to the development of automated smart cars. Most of us have continuous connection to the internet, offering unlimited access to instant information. Meanwhile, developments in medicine, manufacturing and computing are all surging forwards.

These great advancements in technology are improving our daily lives. The price for this, however, is our jobs – a huge consideration for businesses, and a huge worry for those who might be replaced.

The media has been warning of robots and AI replacing jobs for years, but over the past few months the claxons have been ringing more often. A PwC report issued in 2017 stated that up to 30% of UK jobs were particularly susceptible to being taken by robots by 2030, and the Bank of England has estimated that 15 million jobs may be at risk. Will this lead to reduced working hours for all, and employment with jobs that are less repetitive, or mass unemployment? The answer is in how businesses and governments handle the change.

There are already predictions available regarding who will be affected. A 2013 report from Oxford University studied 700 professions, to assess how likely they were to become automated. The professions studied ranged from mental health workers and surgeons (0.3% and 0.4% chance of automation respectively), to data entry clerks and telemarketers (99% likely).

Worldwide, as much as 14% of the global workforce could soon be affected by digitisation, automation or other similar advances. Employers are recognising this fact; 71% of European businesses with over $100million annual revenue have said that retraining staff is the best way for them to handle any skill gaps caused by automation. However, only 59% of these companies see it as their responsibility to provide such retraining.

Unsurprisingly, it is the low-skilled that will struggle the most against this wave of automation, with PwC predicting that 44% of the demographic will be at risk of replacement. This is compounded by a predicted 15tn potential boost to global GDP from AI.

Ben Goertzel, Chief Scientist for Hanson Robotics, has stated, “Artificial intelligence will free humans from work. We will be able to move on to a more meaningful existence.

While it could be argued that most of those affected workers will enjoy freedom from repetitive tasks, without sufficient investment in upskilling or retraining, many could find their future only holds precarious short-term employment in highly competitive, low-skilled roles.

In order to fully realise Goertzel’s prediction, we will need to implement systematic retraining (or universal income) in tandem with automation.

This isn’t the first time that our workforce has faced such issues. When they have, despite an initial, brief period of panic and upheaval, more jobs in fact tend to be created. For example, the industrial revolution gave birth to the Luddites, yet it also transformed the economic landscape and created jobs that people wouldn’t have been able to imagine only a decade before.

With each year new occupations are created, mostly fuelled by technological development. Companies exist today to sell mobile phones, broadband, manage social media marketing, and handle online accounting – all of which would have been unimaginable 30 years ago.

Indeed, concerns are only relevant when we consider the unprecedented speed of modern technological progress.

The OECD recommends that countries invest heavily in adult training programs, and steer people away from ‘jobs for life’. Meanwhile, investment from companies, apprenticeships without age restrictions and training colleges will help ensure a flexible, adaptive workforce that will enjoy an industrious working life. Workers will need to be equipped with creative and social skills - instead of replacement, we should instead be discussing redeployment.

Time and time again, research shows that people want to learn more on the job, and they mostly relish the opportunity to upskill. This benefits workers as they have better earning potential, and a greater likelihood of doing something they enjoy. Redeployment also benefits the employer, who is rewarded with more engaged and loyal staff that are better at their jobs.

As long as we are able to offer viable alternative options to those workers at risk of displacement, there is no reason why we can’t welcome a new society that benefits greatly from the technological advancements we have made.