UPDATEMARKET AUGUST2022 respondremainmoreForStateline,AlpineDonnerofEnclosedthethem.WeapprisedcommittedthemonthsTheTruckeeandLakeTahoehousingmarketisnowafewintoachangingpattern.Asthisdecidedshiftfromextremityofthepasttwoyearstakesshape,wearetokeepingyou,ourvaluedfriendsandclients,ofthenewmarketdynamicsasweinterpretaimtoprovideyoutheclarityyouneedtomakebestdecisionforyourinvestmentinourcommunity.wehavecompileddatafromthelastfouryearssinglefamilyhomeinventoryandsalesinallofTruckee,Summit,DonnerLake,MartisValley,Northstar,Meadows,OlympicValley,NorthLakeTahoetoandWestLakeTahoetoRubicon.theremainderof2022weanticipatehomesalestobeorlessinlinewithpre-pandemicyears,inventorywillsteadilyontherise,andmortgagerateswilltoinflation. Source:Tahoe-SierraMLS;allstatsforsingle-familyhomesinTruckee-TahoeasofJuly29,2022.
HOMEPRICES:Pricingappearstobesoftening.Normally, inventorydemandreturningbelievemayunsustainable.toAsappreciationthepandemicThescenariosincreasedthisisaresultofdecreasingsalesdemand,coupledwithansellermotivation.Wedon’tbelievethateitherofthesearethecaseinourcurrentmarket.recentnumberofhomesalesisapproachingthatofpre-volume.Thoughvaluehasdecreasedslightlyfrompeak,sellersarestillhappytocapturethe50-60%gainoverthelastyearandahalf.thismarketshiftcontinues,priceappreciationwillnotreturntherapidrateofthepandemicyears,itwassimplyBytheendofthisyear,thereisriskthatpricesgodown10-15%fromthepeakpricesofearly2022.Wethat2023homepriceswilllikelyremainflatbeforetoanaverageappreciationrateof3-8%.Asbuyerandthepaceofhomesalescooldown,housingwillcontinuetogrow. FORSELLERS buyers4-6targetwillhigh.onmarketappropriately:Pricingalistingiscritical.Inthe2020-2021asuccessfulsalewaslessdependenttherightprice,asthebuyerdemandwassoNow,propertiesthatarepricedtoohighnotseethesamelevelofinterest.Thetimeinthemarketwillbenomorethanweeksbeforeahomestartslookingstaleto(ie.whyhasn’tthishousesold?). FORBUYERS: lovequicklyoptions.somerises.slowdownTherehasbeenanaturalinpriceappreciationasourinventoryWiththeincreaseininventorythereisreliefasabuyerwithmoreavailableItisstillimportanttobepreparedtoactifyoufindtherightproperty—ifyouit,bedecisive. MARKETUPDATEOVERVIEW
toWeInventoryexpectationisStandingsingle-familyhomeinventoryhascontinuedtogrowthroughthemiddleofsummer.Ourthatinventorywillpeaksomewherearound330activehomelistingsasweapproachfall.willbeabout40-50%morethanthatoflatespringandearlysummer2022.continuetobeinaseller'smarket,albeitalessrobustone.Thenumberofhomesalesperyearisstartingreturntothepre-pandemiclevelsseenin2018-2019.
MONTHSOFINVENTORY|JULY2018–JULY2022 MonthsofInventoryistheinterplaybetweenactiveinventoryandthenumberofsalesinthelastyear.Itcanalsobelookedatastheamountoftimeitwill taketosellallofthepropertiescurrentlyonthemarketifnoadditionalhomeswereaddedtothesupply. dynamicsfourInthischart,theblacklinerepresentswhereaneutralmarketbegins.Thelowerthebluelinethemorethemarketfavoredsellers.Thefirsthalfofthelastyearssawfairlynormalmarketcycles.InMayof2020,themarketbegantoshifttoheavilyfavorsellers.InMay2022anotherdecisiveshiftinmarketbegan,movingtowardsamoreneutralmarket.Thisisstilltrueaswemoveintomid-August. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART1A Seechart1Bforfurtherbreakdown InventoryofMonths7.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.00J-18A-18S-18O-18N-18D-18J-19F-19M-19A-19M-19J-19J-19A-19S-19O-19N-19D-19J-20F-20M-20A-20M-20J-20J-20A-20S-20O-20N-20D-20J-21F-21M-21A-21M-21J-21J-21A-21S-21O-21N-21D-21J-22F-22M-22A-22M-22J-22Months(beginningJuly2018)MonthsofInventoryNeutralMarket
MONTHSOFINVENTORY|YEAROVERYEAR uptickyear,MonthsInthischartwearelookingatthesamefouryearsofdatafromchart1A,butlayeringeachyearontopofoneanother.ofinventoryishistoricallyontheriseduringthesummermonths.TheMay-July2022inventoryhasbeenmuchhigherthanmostofthepreviousyetstillfarlowerthanitwasinmid2018throughmid2020.Wearenowseeingamorerapidriseininventoryassummerpusheson.Weviewthisastheavailablesupplyapproachingthecurrentlevelofdemand. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART1B InventoryofMonths7.006.005.004.003.002.001.000.00ASONDJFMAMJJMonths(beginninginAugust)June18-May19June19-May20June20-May21June21-May22NeutralMarket
HOMESSOLD|JULY2018–JULY2022 rangeTheJulyThischartrepresentsthenumberofsinglefamilyhomesalesforthe12monthsprecedingeachdate.Forexample,July2018respresentsthesalesfrom2017throughJuly2018.surgeofhomesalesduringtheheightofthepandemicstartedinmid2020,peakedlastsummer,andranuntilearly2022.However,wearenowinthesimilartothepre-pandemicmarket.Theregionappearstobeeasingbackintothestatusquoof1,000-1,200homesalesperyear. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART2A Seechart2Bforfurtherbreakdown Months(beginningJuly2018) 2000180016001400120010008006004002000J-18A-18S-18O-18N-18D-18J-19F-19M-19A-19M-19J-19J-19A-19S-19O-19N-19D-19J-20F-20M-20A-20M-20J-20J-20A-20S-20O-20N-20D-20J-21F-21M-21A-21M-21J-21J-21A-21S-21O-21N-21D-21J-22F-22M-22A-22M-22J-22
HOMESSOLD|YEAROVERYEAR salesAboveInthischartwearelookingatthesamefouryearsofhomesalesdatafromchart2A,butlayeringeachyearontopofoneanother.wecanseewherethemarkethasbeenatthesametimeofyearacrosseachofthesefouryears.Currently,theannualnumberofisjustoverthe2018-2019pre-pandemiclevel. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART2B SalesofNumber2000180016001400120010008006004002000ASONDJFMAMJJMonths(beginninginAugust)2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-2022
ACTIVEHOMES|JULY2018-JULY2022 InventoryActiveIfmarket,middleTheactiveinventoryhistoricallydrivestheseasonalrythymofourmarket.Thefirsttwoyearsofthischartrepresentournormallocalmarketcycle.BeginningintheofMay2020,thebuyersoftheearlypandemicperiodrushedtopurchasemuchoftheavailableinventory.Despiterecordnumbersofhomescomingontheinventorywasstillatlessthanhalfofthepre-pandemiclevels.Now,bytheendofJuly2022wehaveseenasignificantinventoryspike.thisisthefirstindicationofreturningtoanormalmarket,wearelikelytoseethemonthovermonthstandinginventorynearlydoublebythesummerof2023.Months(beginninginJuly2018)STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART3A Seechart3Bforfurtherbreakdown 6005004003002001000J-18A-18S-18O-18N-18D-18J-19F-19M-19A-19M-19J-19J-19A-19S-19O-19N-19D-19J-20F-20M-20A-20M-20J-20J-20A-20S-20O-20N-20D-20J-21F-21M-21A-21M-21J-21J-21A-21S-21O-21N-21D-21J-22F-22M-22A-22M-22J-22
ACTIVEHOMES|YEAROVERYEAR thepre-pandemicInthischart,theactivelistingdatafromchart3Aislayeredyearoveryearandshowstheinventoryisstillbelow(almosthalfof)levels.Salesarebeingabsorbedatalowerratethantheprevioustwoyears.AlthoughtJulyappearstohaveleveledofffromrapidinventorygrowthininMay–Juneofthisyear,wedoexpecttoseeavailableinventorycontinuetogrow. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART3B ListingsActiveofNumber6005004003002001000ASONDJFMAMJJMonths(beginninginAugust)2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-2022
MONTHSOFINVENTORYBYPRICEOVER2YEARS MonthsofInventoryistheinterplaybetweenactiveinventoryandthenumberofsalesinthelastyear.Itcanalsobelookedatastheamountoftimeit willtaketosellallofthepropertiescurrentlyonthemarketifnoadditionalhomeswereaddedtothesupply. OverJulyThischartcomparesinventorybypricerange.Datafromthecurrentyearisingray,alongwiththeyearprecedingJuly2020inblue.Theyearpreceding2020wasrelativelynormal,withinventorydroppingsignificanlylastyearin2021,asindicatedbyorange(orlackthereof)bars.twoyearsthemedianpriceforsinglefamilyhomesinTruckeeandLakeTahoerosefrom$890,000to$1,500,000,wherewearetoday. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART4A Seecharts4B&4Cforfurtherbreakdown 14.0012.0010.008.006.004.002.000.00<$1mm$1mm-$1.5mm$1.5mm-$2mm$2mm-$2.5mm$2.5mm-$5mm$5mm-$10mm$10mm-$20mm2yearsago1yearagoCurrentNeutralbetweenbuyer/sellermarket
SOLDHOMESBYPRICEOVER2YEARS Itchanged.Usingthesamedatafromchart4A,butbreakingoutthenumberoflistingssoldbyvariouspricesranges,alsoshowshowthemarkethasThepreviousmediansalespricewas<$1mm($890,000),andithasnowmovedintothe$1-$1.5mmrange($1,500,000).hasbecomemoredifficulttofindsinglefamilyhomeinventorybelow$1mm. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART4B LsitingsofNumber9008007006005004003002001000<$1mm$1mm-$1.5mm$1.5mm-$2mm$2mm-$2.5mm$2.5mm-$5mm$5mm-$10mm$10mm-$20mm$20mm<PriceRange2yearsago1yearagocurrent
STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE ACTIVEHOMESBYPRICEOVER2YEARS andstartingStillusingthesamedatafromchart4A,butsortingtheactiveinventorybypricerange,wecanseeanotherwaythatthemarketistoshiftbacktowardsthepre-pandemicmarket.Inventoryisstartingtoriseinmostofthehigherpricerangesfirst(graybar),graduallygrowingthroughthelowerpricepoints. CHART4C ListingsofNumber80706050403020100<$1mm$1mm-$1.5mm$1.5mm-$2mm$2mm-$2.5mm$2.5mm-$5mm$5mm-$10mm$10mm-$20mm$20mm<PriceRanges2yearsago1yearagocurrent
TRACKINGNEWESCROWS:CHARTS5A&5B reportedInovernewThefinaltwochartsinthenextpageslookatdataforopenedescrows.Overallescrowdataprovidesasolidindicationofrelativetractioninthemarkettime.chart5A,eachdata/datepointreflectsthenumberofcontractsthatweretotheTahoe-SierraMLSas acceptedfor2weeksprecedingthe anbreakingNewrhythmchosedatescancelled.Thedate.Thedatadoesnottrackescrowsthatwereaccepted,butthendatawillalsomissafewsalesbetweendatapointsbecausetheareat1/2monthintervalsandthedataonlylooksback2weeks.WetolookatdatathiswaybecauseourTruckeeandLakeTahoemarketisseasonal.escrowactivityfrequentlycorrelatesmorecloselywiththeweekends.Bythedatacleanlyintoexactly2weeksegmentsitislesslikelytopickupextradaythatisdisproportionatelybusyintheweek.
OPENEDESCROWS|JULY2018–JULY2022 "bootssimilar.Watchingthechangeinnewescrowsprovidesalookatebbandflowofbuyerdemand.TheoveralltrendhereappearshistoricallyHomesaletypicallybegintopickupasinventorybeginstopeak.Thecurrentbuyerdemandremainsrobust,althoughinourontheground"experience,buyersaremorechoosythantheyhavebeeninthelast2years. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART5A EscrowinHomes1401201008060402007/29/20188/29/20189/29/201810/29/201811/29/201812/29/20181/29/20192/28/20193/31/20194/30/20195/31/20196/30/20197/31/20198/31/20199/30/201910/31/201911/30/201912/31/20191/31/20202/29/20203/31/20204/30/20205/31/20206/30/20207/31/20208/31/20209/30/202010/31/202011/30/202012/31/20201/31/20212/28/20213/31/20214/30/20215/31/20216/30/20217/31/20218/31/20219/30/202110/31/202111/30/202112/31/20211/31/20222/28/20223/31/20224/30/20225/31/20226/30/2022Months(beginninginJuly2018) Seechart5Bforfurtherbreakdown
OPENEDESCROWS|YEAROVERYEAR yellowvariations,showsLayeringthesame4yearsofopenedescrowdatafromchart5Aandcomparingtheblueline(pre-pandemic)andyellowline(now)thenumberofacceptedsalesisgenerallyfollowingwhatthepre-pandemicsalenumberslookedlike.Clearly,thereareasthelastfewmonthshaveseenperiodsofsalesbothaboveandbelowthe2018-2019line.Overallthevarianceofthelineaboveandbelowthebluelineappearstomostlycanceleachotherout. STATSMARKETTRUCKEE-TAHOE CHART5B EscrowinHomes140120100806040200ASONDJFMAMJJ2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-2022Months(beginninginAugust)
neighborhoodIfyouwouldlikeamorespecificlookatwhatyourhomeorlookslikesinthischangingmarket,pleasedonothesitatetoreachout.Wewouldbehappytoprovideyouwithacomprehensivevalueanalysisofyourproperty.
