SEPTEMBER2022
MARKETUPDATEOVERVIEW TheTruckeeandLakeTahoehousingmarketisafewmonthsintoachangingpattern.Asthisdecidedshiftfromtheextremityofthepasttwo yearstakesshape,wearecommittedtokeepingyou,ourvaluedfriendsandclients,apprisedofthenewmarketdynamicsasweinterpret them.Weaimtoprovideyoutheclarityyouneedtomakethebestdecisionforyourinvestmentinourcommunity.Enclosedwehave compiledsinglefamilyhomedataforinventoryandsalesinallofTruckee,DonnerSummit,DonnerLake,MartisValley,Northstar,Alpine Meadows,OlympicValley,NorthLakeTahoetoStateline,andWestLakeTahoetoRubicon. Wecontinuetobeinaseller'smarket,albeitalessrobustone.Thenumberofhomesalesperyearisstartingtoreturntothelevelsseenin 2018-2019.Fortheremainderof2022weanticipatehomesalestobeinlinewiththepre-pandemictimeline. HOMEPRICES:Priceshavesoftened.Normally,thisisaresultofdecreasingsalesdemand,coupledwithanincreasedsellermotivation.We don’tbelievethateitherofthesescenariosarethecaseinourcurrentmarket.Thoughvaluehasdecreasedslightlyfromthepandemicpeak, sellersarestillhappytocapturethe50-60%appreciationgainoverthelastyearandahalf. Asthismarketshiftcontinues,priceappreciationwillnotreturntotherapidrateofthepandemicyears,itwassimplyunsustainable.Prices appeartohavefallenapproximately10-15%fromthepeakofMarch2022.Wearestillseeingmultipleoffersonsomelistings,particularlyat thelowerpricerangeandevenonhomesthathavebeenonthemarketforawhile.Webelievethat2023homepriceswilllikelyremainflat, foratleastthefirsthalfoftheyear,beforereturningtoanaverageappreciationrateof3-8%.Asbuyerdemandandthepaceofhomesales cooldown,housinginventorywilllikelycontinuetogrow. FORSELLERS:Pricingapropertyappropriatelyiscritical.Inthe2020-2021marketasuccessfulsalewaslessdependentontherightprice. Now,propertiesthatarepricedtoohighwillnotseethesamelevelofinterestandincurpricereductions.Thetargettimeinthemarketwill benomorethan4-6weeksbeforeahomestartslookingstaletobuyers(i.e.whyhasn’tthishousesold?). FORBUYERS:Thismarketshifthasbroughtanaturalslowdowninpriceappreciation.Withtheincreaseininventorythereissomerelieffor buyers,whonowhavemoreoptionsandopportunityforbetterdeals. Source:Tahoe-SierraMLS;allstatsforsingle-familyhomesinTruckee-Tahoe
ACTIVEHOMEINVENTORY AVERAGEDAYSONMARKET MONTHSOFINVENTORY 293 3.5MONTHS MEDIANLISTPRICE MEDIANSALEPRICE AVERAGEDOLLARPERSQFT $1,050,000 Source:Tahoe-SierraMLS;allstatsforsingle-familyhomesinTruckee-Tahoe $1,000,000 $771 4.9%FROM2WEEKSPRIOR 3.8%FROM2WEEKSPRIOR 24DAYS FORSOLDINVENTORY WITHINTHELAST2WEEKS FORSOLDINVENTORY WITHINTHELAST2WEEKS FORHOMESALESINTHE LAST2WEEKS 20%FROM2WEEKSPRIOR FORHOMESOLDWITHINTHELAST2WEEKS
Inthisgraph,theactivelistingdataislayeredyearoveryearindicatinghomeinventoryisstillbelow(almosthalfof) pre-pandemiclevels.Salesarebeingabsorbedatalowerratethantheprevioustwoyears.InventorypeakedinJulyfromthe rapidgrowthinMay–Juneofthisyear.Asweheadintofall,inventoryseemstobedwindling. TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 SONDJFMAMJJA Number of Active Listings Month(beginningwithSeptember) 2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-2022
MONTHSOFINVENTORY MonthsofInventoryistheinterplaybetweenactiveinventoryandthenumberofsalesinthelastyear.It canalsobelookedatastheamountoftimeitwilltaketosellallthepropertiescurrentlyonthemarketif noadditionalhomeswereaddedtothesupply. Intheforthcomingchart,theredlinerepresentswhereaneutralmarketbegins,andeachoftheprevious 4yearsisrepresentedbyacoloredline.Thefurtherbelowtheredlineeachofthecoloryearlinesare,the morethemarketfavoredsellers.Thefirsthalfofthelastfouryearssawrelativelynormalmarketcycles.In May2020,themarketbegantoshifttoheavilyfavorsellers,thestartofthepandemicwave.InMay2022 anotherdecisiveshiftinmarketdynamicsbegan,movingtowardsamoreneutralmarket.Thisisstilltrue aswemovetowardsfourthquarterandintofall.
Monthsofinventoryishistoricallyontheriseduringthesummermonths.Thesummer2022inventorywasmuchhigherthan mostofthepreviousyear,yetstillfarlowerthanitwasinmid2018throughmid2020.Inventorynowhasbeguntotaperoff slightlyfromthemid-summerpeak. TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 SONDJFMAMJJA Months of Inventory Month(beginningwithSeptember) June18-May19June19-May20June20-May21June21-May22NeutralMarket
Thischartcomparesmonthsofinventorybypricerangeover2years.Datafromthecurrentyearisinyellow,alongwiththeyear precedingAugust2021ingray,andtheyearprecedingAugust2020inorange. TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 <$1mm$1mm-$1.5mm$1.5mm-$2mm$2mm-$2.5mm$2.5mm-$5mm$5mm-$10mm$10mm-$20mm 2yearsago1yearagoCurrentNeutralbetweenbuyer/sellermarket
Abovewecanseewherethemarketistrendingnow(yellowline),andwherethemarkethasbeenatthesametimeofyear acrosseachofthepreviousfouryears.Currently,theannualnumberofhomesalesisjustoverthemorenormal2018-2019prepandemiclevel. TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 SONDJFMAMJJA Number of Sales Month(beginningwithSeptember) 2018-20192019-20202020-20212021-2022
Lookingatthenumberoflistingssoldbyvariouspricesrangesover2yearsdemonstrateshowthemarkethaschanged.The mediansalepricepre-pandemic(orangebar)was<$1mm($890,000),andithasmovedintothe$1-$1.5mmrange.Ithas becomelesscommontofindhomesunder$1mmtoday. TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 <$1mm$1mm-$1.5mm$1.5mm-$2mm$2mm-$2.5mm$2.5mm-$5mm$5mm-$10mm$10mm-$20mm$20mm< Number of Lsitings PriceRange 2yearsago1yearagocurrent
TRACKINGNEWESCROWS Overallnewescrowdataprovidesasolidindicationofrelativetractioninthemarketovertime. Eachdata/datepointreflectsthenumberofcontractsthatwerereportedtotheTahoe-SierraMLSas acceptedfor2weeksprecedingthedate.Thedatadoesnottrackescrowsthatwereaccepted,butthen cancelled.Thedatawillalsomissafewsalesbetweendatapointsbecausethedatesareat1/2month intervalsandthedataonlylooksback2weeks.WechosetolookatdatathiswaybecauseourTruckeeand LakeTahoemarketrhythmisseasonal. Newescrowactivityfrequentlycorrelatesmorecloselywiththeweekends.Bybreakingthedatacleanly intoexactly2-weeksegmentsitislesslikelytopickupanextradaythatisdisproportionatelybusyinthe week.
Comparing4yearsofdata,theblueline(pre-pandemic)andyellowline(now)showthenumberofopenedescrowsisgenerally followingwhatthepre-pandemicsalenumberslookedlike.Clearly,therearevariations,asthelastfewmonthshaveseenperiodsof salesbothaboveandbelowthe2018-2019line.Overall,thevarianceoftheyellowlineaboveandbelowthebluelineappearsto mostlycanceleachotherout. 2019-20202020-2021
TRUCKEE-TAHOE MARKET STATS 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 SONDJFMAMJJA 2018-2019
2021-2022
If you would like a more specific look at what your home or neighborhood looks likes in this changing market, please do not hesitate to reach out. We would be happy to provide you with a comprehensive value analysis of your property.
