DI SPATC H E S| IRAN'S MILITARY STRATEGY
Iran’s new ‘hard war’ stance By Joe Varner
I
ran’s experience in the years-long IranIraq War had a profound impact on its threat perceptions, national security strategy and doctrine regarding the use of force. The Iran-Iraq war, which took place between 1980 and 1988, by conservative Western estimates killed 367,000 people, 262,000 of whom are believed to have been Iranian. Officially, Iranian estimates put the number at 123,220 killed and 60,711 missing in action. A further 11,000 civilians were also believed to have been killed. The Economist pegged Iran’s war costs, indirect and direct, at $627 billion. With the demise of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran refocused its attention on the 38
United States as its principal opponent and, in turn, the U.S.’s allies — Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Its fear over Sunni Islamic extremism, both in terms of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, boosted its need to intervene in Iraq and Syria. Tehran’s national security strategy is to ensure continuity of clerical rule and regime survival, and, in the words of the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency, “maintain stability against internal and external threats, secure Iran’s position as a dominant regional power and achieve economic prosperity.” The Iranian view is that its military is there to deter the
United States and the Middle East Persian Gulf region and to establish a new order in which it is dominant. Iran maintains a system of loose alliances in the region with what it terms the “Axis of Resistance.” This axis is a confederation of like-minded state and non-state actors across the Middle East who aim to counter Western influence, including: the Assad regime in Syria; Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, Bahraini militants and some Palestinian groups that also include the Sunni terrorist group, Hamas. Iran is also a member of the non-aligned movement and has observer status with the China-led Shanghai Co-opSUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPT
HOSSEIN VELAYATI
Tehran’s national security strategy is to ensure the continuity of clerical rule and regime survival. Shown here is a Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) developed by Iran, being fired in a military exercise.
