Chapter 2: Scenarios of Urban Futures: Degree of Urbanization

Chapter 2:

Scenarios of Urban Futures: Degree of Urbanization

Quick facts

1. Global city population share doubled from 25 per cent in 1950 to 50 per cent in 2020; it is projected to slowly increase to 58 per cent over the next 50 years.

2. Between 2020 and 2070, the number of cities in low-income countries will increase by 76 per cent, in high-income and lower-middle-income countries by about 20 per cent, and in uppermiddle-income countries by 6 per cent.

3. Over the next five decades, growth in city land area will mostly take place in low-income (141 per cent), lower-middle-income (44 per cent) and high-income countries (34 per cent).

Changes in upper-middle-income countries are projected to be relatively small (13 per cent).

4. Small cities cover almost half of city land (about 45 per cent) in low-income countries, a trend that will persist over the coming decades.

Policy points

1. City densities in low-income countries need to be planned for and managed in ways that future growth does not exert pressure on existing open land, infrastructure and services, and result in crowding on the one hand or lead to unsustainable sprawl on the other.

2. Enhanced planning capacities for small cities and emerging newer cities will strengthen the important role they play across the urban-rural continuum in achieving sustainable futures.

3. Planning for age-friendly cities and towns that afford good quality of life for all inhabitants across all generations is critical for sustainable futures.

4. Effective urban and territorial planning is critical to mitigate the negative social, economic and environmental associated with future urban growth.

5. Effective urban and territorial planning is critical to mitigate the negative social, economic and environmental associated with future urban growth.