Ask the Experts

THE EXPERTS By GRID MICHAL

GRINDING GRID’S GEARS COVID MATH

DO YOU REMEMBER EEYORE the donkey? Or Joe from L’il Abner? Eeyore was 300 pounds of worries covered by skin and Joe always had a rain cloud over his head. This was also the time when Dick Tracy had a wristwatch that showed zzzzs to indicate he was talking on it. Keep that thought of the future in mind.

As we start getting ready to enter our 2021 busy season, I feel the two characters above draping a mantle over me, sharing worries for the boating industry’s future. For the time being—maybe the next 25+ years—we’ll do fi ne as mobile outboard service techs. We have experience on engines from 1950 to 2019, including all the tough ones like the Homelite and the Ficht/ETEC. What we’ve seen as we pass dealers on the highway is a tremendous amount of repowering with outboard engines up to 450hp, and in multiples. I hear from one of my customers who’s a stockbroker that customers have enjoyed the fruits of the market and have been spending serious bucks on serious fun. Having owned a marine dealership I know that when new models appear, there’s generally a lag time of 3 years before something you went to tech school to learn appears as a problem in the real world. By that time there have been three more years of technological advances, and who remembers the school of three years ago? With the turnover in the industry, I’d be amazed if the students at that school were still with the same dealer. We’re surrounded by vo-tech schools that are ultimately half-day repositories for recalcitrant high school kids who are waiting for a check without having to learn to earn.

That brings me to January 6 and a new round of promises. I am not making

a political statement, only doing the

math by the headlines. Perhaps my being old enough to be on Social Security makes

Mexico Boating Guide

by Capt. Pat Rains Updated 2021

Pacific Baja, Sea of Cortez, mainland Mexico Comprehensive, mile-by-mile guide to all the anchorages, marinas, fuel docks, boatyards, port clearance, fun stuff. GPS charts, photos. Paperwork Cha Cha, WX Radio Freqs., 400 pages. Written for yatistas by U.S.C.G. mariners & veteran Mexico cruisers. Still $69.95 TRUSTED MexicoBoating.com

me more aware of the ramifications of these promises, and I see some coming problems. Covid has left thousands of dead. It has affected virtually every operational business whether by closure or illness. Lawlessness in cities that usually sustained wealth has taken over. Major national and international companies are moving to more welcoming states like Texas and Florida, hoping to salvage what they worked so hard to grow. One major promise to close the oil pipeline might have used a bit more thought. If the employment numbers are correct, 51,000 people earning $250300,000 a year lost their jobs at the stroke of a pen. That means removing $15,300,000,000 from the economy, then retraining folks to try to learn lesser-paying jobs while their homes and cars are repossessed. Collateral damage includes every imaginable business a medium-sized town would have. It will be a while before those financial losses can be toted. Where will the unemployment benefits come from based on their income? Then there’s the three trillion dollars given to citizens to re-ignite the economy. Numerically three trillion looks more disastrous: $3,000,000,000. It was printed without a second thought of devaluation. Unpaid college tuition has been forgiven. How will colleges be able to pay their expenses and employees if money they expected has evaporated—and don’t even think about what those who worked so hard to pay for their education are thinking.

What I’m seeing is fairly simple: 1) a tremendous amount of income removed from the economy; even more arbitrarily printed; and an unforgiveable amount forgiven; 2) a stunning amount of technology hitting the waterways on large multiple-engine pleasure boats; and 3) an inability to grow a workforce with the knowledge and business ethic to service the engines. Just for the heck of it, check some of the sites selling boats and note how new they are, and the money that’s being asked.

Finally, the crazy uncle in the corner nobody’s discussing: where is the replacement money coming from? Considering the transparency of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, my guess is entitlements for the elderly are going to take a whack. Taxes—personal property as well as sales—will rise dramatically, quickly, as the effects of spending show. Taxes on gasoline will make travel of any sort a luxury. I’m doing the math as far as my calculator goes. I’m watching every penny in my monthly check. I’m watching the educational system. I’m watching the Covid numbers. And combining those I am making a good guess that there will be a reversal of sales of large engines, and once again, as in the late 80s, one in every seven dealers will shutter his doors. This will be a monthly occurrence. However, if there’s anyone left with money who enjoys boating, can afford the fuel, and can nurture his own tech, deals will abound.

Since Eeyore and Joe have their own identities, I guess I’ll have to find a generic curmudgeon face. Andy Rooney’s was just too perfect.