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THE STATE OF THE NATION (POST-TRUMP EDITION
It has almost been a year since Donald Trump left o ce, and yet his infl uence can still be felt on the political landscape. Where does the nation stand now and where will it go from here?
WORDS BY AARON KHAN-GUMM | ART BY MADISSEN KERMAN
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Eleven months ago, Donald Trump attempted to remain in offi ce as President of the United States despite losing his bid for re-election to Joe Biden. Trump continues to claim the election was fraudulent, refused to concede, and even urged his supporters to “fi ght like hell” before insurrectionists stormed the Capitol. Despite all of these eff orts, Trump remains out of offi ce.
Trump’s exit from the White House, along with his presidency as a whole, can be summed up in two words: controversial and unprecedented.
Trump was a non-traditional president from the very beginning. Every U.S. president has come into offi ce with prior government or military experience; every president except Trump. Previous presidents expressed most of their thoughts through speeches, whereas Trump was an avid Twitter user, using the
platform to share information 26,000 times throughout his term.
As the public became more polarized and the division between the political parties widened, it seemed as if the public had adapted to Trump’s behavior. Now, with Trump out of offi ce, the nation is still being shaped by his lasting impact and the mark he left on the political landscape.
The State of the Republican Party
To put it simply, Trump remains extremely infl uential in the Republican Party.
There is some internal confl ict in regards to moving forward with Trump as members question what role he should play. According to a recent survey conducted by Pew Research, only 44% of the party believe that he should run again in 2024. However, two out of every three Republicans believe Trump should maintain a signifi cant role in politics.
“[The nation] could not have fallen any deeper than it has. I mean, it’s almost right at the bottom right now,” David Chapman, a Trump supporter who attended Trump’s Oct. rally in Iowa, said. “If someone can screw it up this bad and this quick, someone can fi x it this quick, and [Trump’s] the one.”
Additionally, about two out of every three Republicans say they should reject elected offi cials who criticize Trump. Republican leaders seem to have noticed this, as many have been hesitant to negatively comment on Trump, including those who have previously criticized him for his harmful actions.
“Some [Republican elected offi cials] privately will confess some real diff erences with Donald Trump and some real concerns about the direction of their party. Publicly, they remain very supportive of him,” Dr. Seth Masket, a professor of political science and the director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, said. “When [Trump] steps into a primary race and says ‘This person is a good Republican’ and ‘I don’t like this person,’ it seems to have some infl uence on Republican leaders. Republican leaders are terrifi ed of extent the Democrats will be successful in these eff orts is yet to be determined.
DAVID CHAPMAN, TRUMP SUPPORTER disappointing him as a result.”
Beyond their beliefs about Trump, members of the GOP feel dissatisfi ed with the current political landscape where the Democrats control the presidency and both chambers of Congress. However, they do hold a signifi cant amount of power in state legislatures across the country and are not letting it go to waste. Republicans in states such as Iowa, Florida, and Texas are working to pass reactionary legislation, pushing back against mask mandates, gun control and abortion.
The State of the Democratic Party
According to another study from Pew Research, 92% of the Democratic party does not wish to see Trump hold any meaningful place in politics or run for offi ce again. However, that doesn’t mean members are satisfi ed with their current elected offi cials. Not only has Democratic approval for President Biden continued to decrease in recent months, but approval for other Democratic leaders trended downward as well.
Democrats are also concerned about the state of the nation, despite their party maintaining power in the presidency and both chambers of Congress. The majority of party members are growing pessimistic about the economy’s health improving and are not confi dent that the U.S. is appropriately vetting Afghan refugees.
Compounding these concerns, there is growing contention among the leaders of the party. Since gaining control of both chambers of Congress, moderates and progressives struggled to fi nd common ground, even within their own party. This has had real eff ects on policy, from the failed attempt to raise the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour to the signifi cant reduction of Biden’s infrastructure bill.
However, this infi ghting may not be as bad as it seems.
“That’s honestly a sign of a very normal and healthy party. Parties are supposed to argue over stuff ,” Masket said. “I’ve been kind of surprised at how well they’ve gotten along. They don’t have to agree on everything, but the progressives within the party have been surprisingly pragmatic.”
Democratic legislators have made a concerted eff ort to push for voting, policing, and immigration reforms, alongside mandatory precautions and relief for the COVID-19 pandemic. However,to what
The Future of the Nation
Given the current political climate, things may start heating up from here.
The 2022 midterm elections will be decisive, and the Republicans will likely make a strong attempt to regain congressional power. The GOP has history on its side as the party of the president in power tends to lose seats during the midterm elections.
If over the next year the economy does well and President Biden’s approval rating increases, the Democrats may have a shot at maintaining power. However, the chances of this outcome are slim, and if the Democratic Party loses control over one or both the chambers, President Biden will struggle to pass any substantial domestic policy.
Looking forward to 2024, some Republican leaders are signaling their candidacy for the next presidential election, giving the appearance of a real competition between potential candidates such as Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley, and more. Yet, for the Republican Party to work against Trump would likely lead to electoral consequences from their passionate Trump-supporting base, meaning the primary competition could be overthrown by Trump if, or when, he offi cially announces an election bid.
If the 2024 presidential election boils down to another Trump-Biden matchup, it will be a tossup as to who would win. If Trump were to lose, the fallout among election-deniers may be severe.
“My main worry is...Republicans, in particular Trump-loyal Republicans, have leaned toward questioning election results and trying to overturn state-level results,” Masket said. “If they lose narrowly in places like Nevada and Arizona and Wisconsin and a few others, they will try to have state legislatures say ‘No, Trump actually won,’ It could set off a massive crisis, it could set off political violence, and honestly, I do really worry about the long term in that situation.”
DR. SETH MASKET, DIRECTOR OF THE CENTER ON AMERICAN POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF DENVER
