The Covid Economy: digging for data

COVID-19 has proved to be not only a health crisis, but also an economic one. Thankfully, Utah has fared better than most states, in large part thanks to Maclean Gaulin and Nathan Seegert. The pair developed a method to predict the risk of COVID-19 and the hidden infection rate using publicly available data on positivity rates, working tirelessly to provide policymakers with data and analysis through the Utah Health and Economic Recovery Outreach, or UHERO project. These efforts provided the most reliable data in the world in real-time to Utah policymakers.

The pair then leveraged their work with UHERO to develop the Eccles Household Business surveys, which provide policymakers and Utahns monthly reports on the pulse of the economy. The Household survey asks 400 Utahns about their current and expected income, spending, and saving every month, with changing topical “deep dive” questions about government programs or COVID-19 topics such as perceived risks, mask-wearing, and vaccines. The Business survey also asks the same 1,000 firms each month about their current and expected revenues, with rotating “deep dive” questions on strategy, risk concerns, hiring, inflation, etc.

Gaulin and Seegert have had dozens of breakthrough findings. They show that information-based voluntary social distancing is more effective than mandatory lockdowns; that people go out to retail stores and spend more when COVID case counts are lower, when more people are wearing masks (and there are mask mandates) and when they are vaccinated; and that employers are reporting a “skill gap” between their hiring needs and potential employees. See the latest findings at www.econ-update.com. ■

Maclean Gaulin

Assistant Professor, Accounting

Nathan Seegert

Associate Professor, Finance

Maclean (Mac) Gaulin is an Assistant Professor of Accounting at University of Utah’s David Eccles School of Business. His research interests include corporate narrative disclosures, information demand and dissemination, and resultant economic outcomes.

Nathan Seegert is an Associate Professor in the Finance Department at the Eccles School. He studies how government policies affect corporations, urban growth, entrepreneurship, and uncertainty in the economy.