Executive summery

Executive summary – 3rd quarter

The market for investment properties has increased slightly compared to last year, despite a slower start to the year, mainly due to the high interest rates. The preliminary estimate for the transaction volume for the first 8 months or 2/3 of the year is DKK 22.8 billion, which is DKK 1.1 billion or 5% more than last year. The first signs of an increasing transaction volume are already showing themselves, as the central banks lower interest rates. Yields are mostly moving sideways at the moment, and forecasts for 12-month levels in many places are for yields to be roughly unchanged from today’s levels.

Denmark’s GDP has been positively affected by Novo Nordisk’s growth rate, while much of the rest of the economy has been in near stagnation – a stagnation which is expected to gradually shift towards modest growth. Consumers in Denmark currently spend a relatively small portion of their income, so given the prospect of rising real wages and lower interest rates, it is expected that consumption will increase. Inflation has fallen drastically in Denmark, but is expected to be slightly higher going forward, partly due to significant wage increases. Employment continues to grow, and productivity in e.g. pharma seems to have slowed down quite noticeably. However, job growth is expected to slow down and productivity to recover, but there is some uncertainty.

All these conditions help to support activity among firms, and activity on the market for leasing offices and industrial and logistics properties is decreasing, albeit from a high level of activity. This has resulted in the vacancy rate for both property types increasing slightly. However, it should be noted that the vacancy rate is coming from a very low level in a historical context. Due to the relatively weak expectations for the economy in 2024, we expect that the vacancy rate will continue to rise slightly in the coming quarters.