WAITING FOR THE ‘BIG ONE’

By HENRYLITO D. TACIO

Photos courtesy of DR. TEOFREDO

ESGUERRA

Right after the February 2023 twin earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, Mami Mizutori, head of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) issued this statement: “Of all natural hazards, earthquakes cause the deadliest disasters, accounting for 58% of total disaster deaths between 2000-2019.”

The UNDRR defines disaster as “a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society at any scale due to hazardous events interacting with conditions of exposure, vulnerability and capacity, leading to one or more of the following: human, material, economic and environmental losses and impacts.”

An earthquake (also known as a quake, tremor, or temblor) is indeed a serious disaster. Last March 6-7, a series of light- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes shook Davao de Oro and other provinces in eastern Mindanao. The series followed the magnitude 6.0 earthquake in the province last February 1, which caused tension cracks, landslides, and structural damages.

From 1891 to the present, at least 11 strong to great earthquakes – ranging from magnitude 6.0 to magnitude 8.3 (offshore) – occurred in Davao de Oro and its vicinity, according to the Philippine Institute of The most damaging earthquake that affected Davao de Oro happened on June 21, 1893; the magnitude 7.3 earthquake in Monkayo along the Philippine Fault produced numerous landslides, liquefaction, and long and wide cracks.

In his message during the First Quarter Nationwide Simultaneous Earthquake Drill (NSED) this year, Secretary Renato U. Solidum Jr. of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) believes and expects that by now, most Filipinos must have a deeper understanding and appreciation of what an earthquake disaster means.

“It is likely that we know someone, if not ourselves, who experienced the impacts of devastating earthquakes in the Philippines in the last two decades,” the science secretary pointed out.

Just like a thief of the night, earthquakes happen anytime, anywhere. Experts believe the

Philippines is now ripe for another “Big One,” a hypothetical earthquake of a 7.2-magnitude or greater. But most Filipinos don’t seem to mind it at all – until it happens.

The PhiVolcs says any active faults that have not generated any historical surface-rupturing events have higher potential to generate “The Big One.” The large quake can significantly affect the region and surrounding areas where it happens.

There are some reports that Metro Manila is apt for another big earthquake. Emmanuel De

Guzman, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction advisor for Asia-Pacific, admitted that he was unsure when the catastrophic disaster would strike but it is most likely to happen in the thickly-populated metropolis.

“The big earthquake is certainly coming. The question is when? No one can tell. It can happen today, tomorrow, or next year. But certainly, there will be an earthquake,” De Guzman, who previously worked with the Office of Civil Defense of the National Disaster Coordinating Council, was quoted as saying by Philippine Daily Inquirer.

A study done by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) said Metro Manila is not ready to deal with a 7.2-magnitude earthquake in terms of existing resources and given old building structures around and within the metropolis.

The 2002-2004 “Study for Earthquake Impact Reduction for Metropolitan Manila” said that a 7.2-magnitude earthquake triggered by West Valley Fault can kill around 34,000 people, injure

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conduct of the Simultaneous Anti-Criminality Law Enforcement Operations (SACLEO) continues with a priority focus on loose firearms.

She said Gen. Benjamin Silo Jr., PRO-11 regional director, already issued the directive of “One Strike Policy” directing the PNP to prioritize securing politicians in their area of responsibility (AOR).

“Pagdating sa protection ng elected politicians natin dito ang aming regional director BGen. Silo ay nagpababa ng directive na “One Strike Policy”. Ibig sabihin kung merong politician masaktan, ma-injured o mamatay sa kanilang area of responsibility (AOR) immediately ma-relieve ang COP. We wanted to prevent incidents that happened sa Negros Oriental that is why we put the responsibility sa ating mga commanders for prevention na may masaktan na politicans in Davao region,” she said.

The incident that Gultiano was referring to was the assassination of Negros Oriental Governor Roel Degamo on March 4, 2023.

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Gordon said the PRC coordinates its response with the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) in Region XI and the Davao De Oro Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office.

The Region XI OCD declared a red alert after a series of earthquakes hit Davao De Oro in Feb. 1 this year. (PNA)

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Philippines continue to have capital and liquidity ratios that exceed the requirements set by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP),” the bankers group said.