HELLENIC REPUBLIC MINISTRY OF FINANCE GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE
DRAFT BUDGETARY PLAN 2019
October 2018
1
CONTENTS Introduction............................................................................................................................... 3 Executive summary ................................................................................................................... 3 Macroeconomic forecasts ......................................................................................................... 4 Expenditure and revenue projections under the no policy change scenario ........................... 8 Expenditure and revenue targets .............................................................................................. 9 Description of discretionary measures included in the Draft Budget ..................................... 11 Debt developments ................................................................................................................. 12 Distributional impact of the main revenue and expenditure measures ................................. 13 ANNEX ..................................................................................................................................... 16
2
Introduction
Regulation (EU) 473/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council (part of the socalled ‘Two-pack’) introduces a common budgetary timeline for Euro area Member States. Specifically, Draft Budgetary Plans for the forthcoming year must be submitted to the th European Commission and to the Eurogroup by October 15 of each year. The document herein is being submitted to the European Commission and the Eurogroup in accordance with the Regulation. The format and content of the document are in line with the requirements of the Two pack Code of Conduct which inter alia, requires macroeconomic and budgetary forecasts for the current and forthcoming year (in this case 2018 and 2019). The macroeconomic forecasts used for this year and next were endorsed by the Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFC) as required under article 4(4) of the Regulation. All data presented are on ESA 2010 statistical basis.
Executive summary
Fiscal policy during 2015-18 focused on correcting the structural fiscal imbalances of the Greek economy by completing the fiscal consolidation plan and on restoring credibility towards fiscal and economic policy making. As a result, in September 2017, the European Council closed the Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) for Greece, while in both 2016 and 2017 a general government surplus was recorded for the first time in contemporary Greek economic history. Current estimates show that a positive fiscal balance will be recorded for a third consecutive year in 2018 and will be maintained in the medium term. The success of fiscal policy over the previous three years has been the result of a mix of expenditure restraint, revenue enhancing measures, and structural reforms. This fiscal performance has contributed significantly to the strengthening of credibility towards the country’s public finances and has helped restore confidence in the mediumterm outlook of the Greek economy. It has thus led to consecutive upgrades of the Republic’s credit rating from international rating agencies, to significant reductions in Greek Government Bond yields and to the successful completion of the ESM economic adjustment program in August 2018. Following the conclusion of the program, Greece Is now being integrated in the EU economic governance framework i.e. the European Semester. As the macroeconomic outlook of Greece improves, fiscal policy has to shift towards a new policy mix, aiming at enhancing households’ disposable income, supporting sustainable growth and improving social protection. The rebalancing of the policy mix consists of permanent measures for the reduction of the tax burden and social security contributions of households and firms, as well as targeted actions to strengthen social protection and improve access to the labour market for young workers. The planned fiscal impulse implied by the new policy mix is well within the limits of the available fiscal space in 2019 and therefore fully compatible with the fiscal target set in the Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy 2019-2022 (MTFS).
3
Macroeconomic forecasts 1. Macroeconomic developments in 2018 On August 20, 2018, Greece successfully completed the three-year economic adjustment program of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and secured a package of debt relief measures that makes public debt dynamically sustainable. Already in September 2017, the strong fiscal outturns had allowed Greece to exit the EDP a year sooner than planned. The general government balance stood at 0.8% of GDP in 2017, recording a surplus for the second consecutive year, while the primary balance reached 4.2% of GDP 1 against the program target of 1.75% (Graph 1.1). Real GDP growth reached 1.4% 2 in 2017, with investment growth as the main driver (at an annual rate of 9.6%). Graph 1.1Evolution of the General Government deficit as a percentage (%) of GDP
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 -14 -16
EU (27 countries)
Euro area (19 countries)
Greece
Source: EDP fiscal data, first notification for 2017 (Hellenic Statistical Authority, Eurostat)
Real GDP increase in 2017 implies a growth momentum for 2018 through a carry-over effect of 0.6% on an annual basis. Further positive effects will result from a stable economic environment ensuing the conclusion of the last two program reviews, the upgrade of the Republic’s credit rating by international rating agencies 3 and the significant de-escalation of the Greek Government Bond yields. In 2018, real GDP growth is expected to reach 2.1% with positive developments across GDP components . Specifically: The further improvement in confidence and the stable creation of new jobs recorded in the first half of 2018 (1.6% on a national account basis) have supported an increase in the real 1
According to the methodology of the Financial Assistance Facility 1 notification of AnnualNational Accounts for 2017, Hellenic Statistical Authority. 3 Upon conclusion of the program's last review (June 2018), the creditworthiness of the Greek economy was upgraded by Standard & Poor's from Bto B+ (with an initially stable and later on positive outlook), by Fitch from B (positive) to BB- (stable), by DBRS from CCC (high) to B (high) and by R&I from CCC+ (positive) to B (stable). These upgrades followed a series of previous upgrades linked to the smooth implementation of the ESM Program, such as thoseof January-February 2018 by Standard & Poor's (from B- to B), by Fitch (from B- to B) and by Moody's (from Caa2 to B3). 2 st
4
wage bill by 3.0%. Consequently, real private consumption stabilized on a year-on-year basis in the first quarter of 2018, and rose significantly in the second quarter, recovering at an overall 0.5% year-on-year rate in the first semester. Given that the upward trends in employment and wages are projected to sustain throughout 2018 (at a 1.7% and a 2.9% rate, respectively, compared to 2017), real private consumption is forecast to rebound substantially in 2018 by 1.0%, making it the main component of final domestic demand growth. The recovery of real private consumption is also favored by the projected deceleration of the inflation rate in 2018 (to 0.6% based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, from 1.1% in 2017). In the first semester of 2018, improved business expectations and a stable investment environment have supported the implementation of investment projects across all investment categories, with the exception of transport equipment. Investment increased by 6.1% in construction (7.9% in dwellings) and by 19.0% in equipment other than transport equipment. The Investment Plan for Europe is expected to contribute to these investment dynamics, as the European Commission estimates that total investment of €10.6 billion will be allocated including €2.7 billion through the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI) 4. However, the total volume of investment declined in the first semester of 2018 by 7.9% year-on-year, due to the contraction of investment in transport equipment (mainly ships 5) by 53.4%. In the second semester of 2018, the expected partial recovery of transport equipment should support the reversal of trend in total investment, raising its annual growth rate to 0.8% in 2018 and its contribution to real GDP to 0.1%. The decline in total investment in the first semester of 2018 was offset by a simultaneous increase in net exports, with the external sector’s contribution to annual GDP growth reaching 1.3% of GDP. This contribution stemmed mostly from the balance on goods 6 (€2.1 billion in volume against the first semester of 2017), but also from the balance on services (€0.3 billion, respectively). As long as the positive trends are maintained throughout the year, the contribution of the external sector to real GDP growth is expected to reach 1.2% in 2018, against a marginally negative estimate in the MTFS. The revised forecast restores net exports as the main determinant of GDP growth. The positive developments in the external sector signal an increase in the Greek economy’s competitiveness, reflected in the improvement of the current account balance from -15.8% of GDP in 2008 to -0.9% of GDP in 2017 (Graph 1.2). Between 2008 and 2017, over twothirds of the external deficit correction was due to the deficit decline in the balance on goods by 58.9%, of which about 26% was due to the rise in exports of goods.
Graph1.2. Evolution of the Current Account balance (in billion €)
4
Factsheet «Investment Plan for Europe», European Commission, July 2018 According to the commercial transactions data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority, in the first seven months of 2018 the decrease in arrivals of ships from abroad reached 57.2% compared to the corresponding period of 2017 (at current prices) 6 The improvement of the balance on goods was supported by both the increase in exports of goods (+ 9.0% compared to the first half of 2017) and the decrease in imports of goods (-2.3%, respectively). Drivers of the decline in imports of goods were the abovementioned year-on-year decrease in ship arrivals from abroad and the high deflator in imports of goods, amid a 38.6% year-on-year increase in the international Brent oil price in the second quarter of 2018. 5
5
40 30 20 10 0 -10
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018*
2019*
-20 -30 -40 -50
Contribution of the external balance of goods and services to GDP growth (cumulatively, constant prices) Current account balance (current prices)
Source: Annual nationalaccountsfor 2017 (Hellenic Statistical Authority), Ministry of Finance * Estimates/ Projections
2. Macroeconomic projections for 2019 Global GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 3.9% in 2019, as in 2018, according to the recent IMF World Outlook update. In the Eurozone, an growth rate of 1.9% is projected for 2019 from 2.2% in 2018. In developing economies, output growth is expected to stand at 5.1% in 2019. World trade is expected to increase by 4.5% in 2019 from 4.8% in 2018. External demand for euro area’s goods and services is projected to increase by 4.3% in 2019. World inflation is expected to remain unchanged in 2019 in relation to 2018, at 2.2% for the advanced economies and 4.4% for the emerging markets and developing economies. The average crude oil price (UK Brent, Dubai Fateh and West Texas Intermediate) was 52.81 dollars per barrel in 2017. For 2018, the average crude oil price is estimated at 70.23 dollars/barrel, while for 2019 at 68.99 dollars/barrel.
Key indicators for the world economy (% annual changes, constant prices) World GDP GDP of the European Union GDP of the Eurozone GDP of the USA World trade (goods and services) Inflation α. Developedeconomies β. Emerging markets and developing economies Oil prices (Brent, USD/barrel)
2017
2018*
2019*
3.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 5.1
3.9 2.1 2.2 2.9 4.8
3.9 2.0 1.9 2.7 4.5
1.7 4.0 52.81
2.2 4.4 70.23
2.2 4.4 68.99
Source: IMF World ΕconomicΟutlook, Update (July 2018), European Commission’s European Economic Forecast, summer 2018 (interim) * Estimates/ projections
Risks and uncertainties surrounding the prospects for global growth are broadly related to a possible escalation of trade tensions and a rise in protectionism, to the high public and private debt in certain large economies, and to the geopolitical tensions that fuel the refugee problem.
6
External Assumptions 2017 1,13 2,2 3,9 2,4 5,3 5,3 52,81
USD/â‚Ź exchange rate (annual average) Nominal effective exchange rate World excluding EU, GDP growth EU GDP growth Growth of relevant foreign markets World import volumes, excluding EU Oil prices (Brent, USD/barrel)
2018 1,18 5,1 4,2 2,1 4,1 4,9 70,23
2019 1,14 0,6 4,1 2 3,6 4,4 68,99
In Greece, real GDP is estimated to grow by 2.5% year on year, surpassing the 2.1% growth rate estimated for the current year. This acceleration of economic activity is expected to rely on the credibility of fiscal policy and the continuous implementation of structural reforms. The following table analytically presents the macroeconomic projections for 2019: Key indicators for the Greek economy (% annual changes, constant prices) Real GDP Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services GDP deflator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Employment* Unemployment rate* Unemployment rate (Labor Force Survey)
2017
2018**
2019**
1.4 0.1 -1.1 9.6 6.8 7.2 0.7 1.1 2.1 19.8 21.5
2.1 1.0 0.2 0.8 7.5 3.4 0.9 0.6 1.7 18.3 19.9
2.5 1.1 0.6 11.9 5.8 5.2 1.3 1.2 1.8 16.7 18.2
Source: Annual National Accounts (Hellenic Statistical Authority), estimates/ projections of the Ministry of Finance * On a national account basis ** Estimates/ projections
Regarding the components of real growth, the main contribution is expected to come from the further recovery of private consumption and the robust investment activity compared to 2018. In fact, investment’s contribution to GDP growth is expected at 1.5 percentage points (pp) of GDP in 2019, reaching its peak over the medium term. Growth in real public consumption is expected to accelerate in 2019 by 0.6% from 0.2% in 2018 following a drop of 0.6% of real GDP in the period 2016-2017. Real private consumption is expected to contribute to real GDP growth by 0.8 pp out of a total of 2.5 pp of growth (from 0.7 pp in 2018). Its annual growth rate is estimated at 1.1%, amid estimated increases in the nominal wage bill for the whole economy by 3.3% (2.0% in real terms) 7 and in the average wage (1.4% in 2019 versus 1.2% in 2018). The forecast for a smaller annual increase in the average wage over the wage bill implies a continued upward trend in employment, at an estimated annual rate of 1.8% in 2019 (across
7
The slight deceleration of real wage bill growth against 2018 is due to the estimated increase in inflation. By contrast, nominal wage bill should increase at a higher rate in 2019.
7
employees and self-employed). As a result, unemployment is expected to decline to 18.2% based on the Labor Force Survey definition. The contribution of the external sector to GDP growth should be limited to marginally positive ground (at 0.1% of real GDP), as the boost in investment is expected to drive a more robust recovery in imports of goods versus exports of goods, partly offsetting the positive contribution of the balance on services by 0.6% of GDP. Inflation is projected to increase in 2019 to 1.2% from 0.6% in 2018, as a result of the diverse effects of several factors, namely, lower excess capacity, weaker growth in global trade, upward trends in international oil prices and ECB maintaining interest rates at the current low levels at least until the summer of 2019, notwithstanding the envisaged unwinding of net asset purchases by December 2018. Macroeconomic Prospects 2017 2018 2019 (rate of (rate of (rate of change) change) change) 187.089 1,4 2,1 2,5
2017 (Levels) 1. Real GDP of which Attributable to the estimated impact of aggregated budgetary measures on economic growth 2. Potential GDP Contributions Potential GDP contributions:Labour Potential GDP contributions:capital Potential GDP contributions: total factor productivity 3. Nominal GDP Components Of real GDP 4. Private consumption expenditure 5. Government consumption expenditure 6. Gross fixed capital formation 7. Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (% of GDP) 8. Exports of goods and services 9. Imports of goods and services Contribution to real GDP growth 10. Final domestic demand 11. Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valu 12. External balance of goods and services
-1.300
-0,7
0,1
0,2
202.600
-1
-0,7
-0,2
177.735
-0,1 -0,4 -0,5 2
-0,2 -0,3 -0,3 3
-0,1 -0,1 -0,1 3,8
127.133 39.947 23.386 1.683 59.759 64.819
1 -1,1 9,6 0,9 6,8 7,2
1,1 0,2 0,8 0,9 7,5 3,4
1,2 0,6 11,9 0,9 5,8 5,2
1.755 1.292 -552
0,95 0,7 -0,3
0,87 0 1,23
2,37 0 0,14
Expenditure and revenue projections under the no policy change scenario In 2017 the headline general government balance in ESA terms (April 2018 EDP data) recorded a surplus of 0.8% of GDP, while the primary balance reached 4.0% of GDP. In program terms, the primary balance stood at 4.24% of GDP, considerably surpassing the program target of 1.75%. The MTFS projected a general government balance of 0.4% of GDP in 2018 (an estimation that remains unchanged). The primary balance is now forecast at 3.9% of GDP versus the initial projection of 3.8% in the MTFS. In program terms, the primary surplus is estimated at 3.8% of GDP, while the respective projection included in the MTFS was 3.56%. For 2019, a headline budget balance of 1.1% of GDP is estimated under a no policy change scenario versus the MTFS forecast of 0.8%. The primary balance is revised upwards to 4.5% of GDP versus the MTFS forecast of 4.1%.
8
In program terms, the primary balance is estimated at 4.2% of GDP versus the MTFS forecast of 4.0% and well above the target of 3.5% set in the MTFS. Revenue and Expenditure at unchanged policies (% of GDP)
General governement (S13) 1. Total revenue at unchanged policies Of which 1.1 Taxes on production and imports 1.2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc 1.3 Capital taxes 1.4 social contributions 1.5 Property income 1.6 Other p.m.: Tax Burden (D.2+D.5+D.61+D.91-D.995) Total expenditure at unchanged policies Of which 2.1 Compensation of employees 2.2 Intermediate consumption 2.3 Social payments Of which unemployment benefits 2.4 Interest expenditure 2.5 Subsidies 2.6 Gross fixed capital formation 2.7 Capital transfers 2.8 Other
2018
2019
48,7
46,7
17,3 10 0,1 14,1 0,4 6,8 41,5 48,3
17,1 9,5 0,1 13,1 0,4 6,5 39,8 45,6
11,9 4,9 20,4 0,6 3,5 1 4 0,4 2,2
11,1 4,8 18,7 0,5 3,4 1 4,7 0,3 1,6
Expenditure and revenue targets The tables below provide a more detailed description of the projected general government expenditure and revenue targets in 2018 and 2019. The headline general government budget balance is estimated at 0.6% of GDP for 2019 compared to 1.1% under a no change policy scenario, while the primary balance is estimated at 3.9% of GDP compared to 4.5% under a no-policy-change scenario. In program terms, the primary balance is estimated at 3.6% of GDP relative to the target of 3.5%. Compared with the 2019 draft budget submitted to Parliament on October 1, 2018, there are only marginal changes (https://minfin.gr/web/guest/proupologismos//asset_publisher/qmvb5pyzdGAQ/content/proschedio-kratikou-proupologismou2019?inheritRedirect=false&redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fminfin.gr%2Fweb%2Fguest%2Fprou pologismos%3Fp_p_id%3D101_INSTANCE_qmvb5pyzdGAQ%26p_p_lifecycle%3D0%26p_p_s tate%3Dnormal%26p_p_mode%3Dview%26p_p_col_id%3Dcolumn2%26p_p_col_count%3D1).
9
Revenue and Expenditure targets (% of GDP)
2018
General governement (S13) 1. Total revenue target Of which 1.1 Taxes on production and imports 1.2 Current taxes on income, wealth, etc 1.3 Capital taxes 1.4 social contributions 1.5 Property income 1.6 Other p.m.: Tax Burden (D.2+D.5+D.61+D.91-D.995) Total expenditure target Of which 2.1 Compensation of employees 2.2 Intermediate consumption 2.3 Social payments Of which unemployment benefits 2.4 Interest expenditure( =9 in table 2.a) 2.5 Subsidies 2.6 Gross fixed capital formation 2.7 Capital transfers 2.8 Other
2019 48,7
47,6
17,3 10 0,1 14,1 0,4 6,8 41,5 48,3
17 9,8 0,1 13,7 0,4 6,6 40,6 47
11,9 4,9 20,4 0,6 3,5 1 4 0,4 2,2
11,7 4,8 19,5 0,5 3,4 1,1 4,6 0,3 1,6
General Government Budget Balance (% of GDP)
Net lending (EDP B.9) by sub-sector 1. Net lending/net borrowing: General government 2. Net lending/net borrowing: Central government 3. Net lending/net borrowing: State government 4. Net lending/net borrowing: Local government 5.Social security funds 6. Interest expenditure 7. Primary balance 8. One-off and other temporary measures 8.a Of which one-offs on the revenue side: general government 8.b Of which one-offs on the expenditure side: general government 9.Real GDP Growth(%) (=1 in Table 1a) 10.Potential GDP Growth(%) (=2 in Table 1a) Contributions -Labour -Capital -Total factor productivity 11. Output gap (% of potential GDP) 12. Cyclical budgetary Component (% of potential GDP) 13. Cyclically adjusted balance (1-12) (% of potential GDP) 14. Cyclically adjusted primary balance (13+6) (% of potential GDP) 15. Structural balance (13-8) (% of potential GDP)
2018
2019
0,4 -0,7 N 0,1 1 3,5 3,9 -0,4 0,2 0,6 2,1 -0,7
0,6 -0,1 N 0,1 0,6 3,4 3,9 0,4 0,4 0 2,5 -0,2
-0,2 -0,3 -0,3 -5,2 -2,7 3,1 6,6 3,5
-0,1 -0,1 -0,1 -2,8 -1,5 2,1 5,5 1,7
10
Description of discretionary measures included in the Draft Budget The following new fiscal interventions will be implemented from 2019 onwards and are presented in the following table in net terms 8: - Help at Home Program: The measure consists of switching the current employment status of 3,000 temporary employees to long-term contracts. - Special education teachers: Hiring of 4,500 teachers and specialized staff for positions currently occupied by temporary teachers. The current spending is financed from the Public Investment Budget (PIB). The new hirings will be financed from the Ordinary Budget while maintaining the current PIB ceiling. At the same time, there will be an equal reduction on the ceiling on temporary staff in order to maintain the same total headcount in the public sector. - Housing allowance: Recalibration of the housing allowance legislated in 2017 in a more targeted manner. - Social security contribution reductions: Reduction of social security contributions for independent professionals, self-employed and farmers, in particular, reduction of the current rate by 1/3 and implementation of the minimum income base for supplementary pension and lump-sums. The above categories suffered a significant burden as a result of the switch from notional to actual income base introduced in the 2016 pension reform, while the increase in contributions led to a drop both in the number of self-employed and independent professionals and in their declared income. Therefore the measure aims to reverse this trend and increase tax compliance. - Subsidy to the social security contributions of young workers: The measure aims at improving access of young people to the labour market and will lead to the creation of new jobs contributing to the reduction of youth unemployment, which is the highest in the EU. As a result, the measure is also expected to have a positive impact on poverty rates in these age groups. The measure will cover young people up to 24 years of age and consists of a 100% subsidy of the social security employees’ contributions and a 50% subsidy of employers’ contributions. - Property tax reduction: Reduction of the basic property tax (ENFIA) by a weighted average rate of 10% in 2019 . - Corporate Income Tax reduction: Gradual reduction of the tax rate from 29% to 25% in a 4 years period, with the resulting fiscal impact starting from 2020 onwards. - Reduction in dividends tax rate: Reduction of the tax rate on distributed profits by 5 percentage points with the resulting fiscal impact starting from 2020 onwards.
8
The quantification of the fiscal interventions will be finalized following consultations with the European Commission.
11
Fiscal interventions 2019 (on net basis) (in mio €) Amount -335
Α Changes relative to the MTFS 2019-2022 1 Non implementation of counter-measures 2019 except from family benefits 2 Pension interventions (provisions of law 4472/2017)
1.730 -2.065 -765
Β New fiscal interventions (Β1+Β2) Β1 REVENUES INTERVENTIONS 1 ENFIA reduction 2 Reduction of social security contributions of independent professionals, self-employed and farmers
-440 -263 -177
3 Reduction of dividends tax rate
0
4 Gradual reduction of CIT from 29% to 25%
0
Β2 5 6 7 8
Remarks
EXPENDITURE INTERVENTIONS Housing allowance Subsidy of young employees social security contributions Special education “Help at home” program
-325 -200 -103 -22 0
Average reduction by 10% Reduction of main insurance rate by 1/3 – Implementation of lowest entry-level salary for supplementary pension and lump sum The measure will start having a fiscal impact from 2020 onwards – Reduction of the tax rate from 15% to 10% The measure will start having a fiscal impact from 2020 onwards – Reduction by 1% per year
The fiscal impact has been depicted in the baseline scenario
-1.100
TOTAL FISCAL INTERVENTIONS (Α + Β)
In the following table the above measures for 2019 are presented in gross terms and in a more aggregate manner, according to their classification in ESA categories: Discretionary measures % GDP
Revenue Taxes on production and imports Current taxes on income, wealth, etc Capital taxes Social contributions Property income Other Expenditure Compensation of employees Intermediate consumption Social payments, of which, where applicable, unemployment benefits Interest expenditure Subsidies Gross fixed capital formation Capital transfers Other (other than D.41)
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0
0
-0,1
0
0
0
0
0
0 -0,09
0
0
0
0
0
0 -0,01
0
0
0
0
0
0 -0,92
0
0
0
0
0 0
0 -0,05 0 0,16
0 0
0 0
0 0
0 0
Debt developments The general government debt is estimated at €335,000 million or 183.0% of GDP at the end of 2018, vs €317,404 million or 178.6% of GDP in 2017. For 2019, the general government debt is forecast at €323,500 million or 170.2% of GDP, i.e. reduced by 12.8 pp compared to 2018.
12
Following the implementation of the short term debt relief measures at the end of the previous year, the Eurogroup on June 22, 2018, specified the medium term relief measures, which further enhance the sustainability of the Greek public debt, in order to keep the annual gross financing needs (GFN ratio) below 15% of GDP in the medium term and below 20% in the long run. The medium term debt relief measures include (i) the abolition of the step-up interest rate margin related to the debt buy-back tranche of the second program as of 2018, (ii) the use of 2014 SMP profits from the ESM segregated account and the transfer of ANFA and SMP income equivalent amounts to Greece as of budget year 2017 and (iii) a further deferral of EFSF interest and amortization by 10 years and an extension of the maximum weighted average maturity by 10 years, respecting the program authorized amount. In the long run and in face of extraordinary shocks regarding debt a contingency mechanism may be activated to ensure its sustainability by implementing further relief measures, such as further smoothening of the maturities of EFSF loans, as well as stabilization of their interest rates and interest payments deferral so as to comply with the imposed ceiling of the GFN ratio. With the disbursement of the last tranche of €15,000 million from the ESM, Greece exits the program with a significant cash buffer which, along with the already healthy cash position, will cover, even under non favorable conditions, the financing needs of the Greek State up to the end of 2020. The creation of a cash buffer resulted in a temporary increase of the public debt in 2018. At the end of August 2018 the total amount of European loans of the first, second and third program (GLF, EFSF, ESM) amounted to €243,682.3 million, while the outstanding debt to the IMF was at €10,291.58 million.
General Government Debt development (% of GDP)
Gross debt Change in gross debt ratio Contributions to changes in gross debt Primary balance Interest expenditure Stock-flow adjustment p.m.: Implicit interest rate on debt Other relevant variables Debt amortization (existing bonds) since the end of the previous year Percentage of debt denominated in foreign currency Average maturity
2018
2019 183 4,4
170,2 -12,8
3,9 -3,5 -4,8 1,9
3,9 -3,4 12,3 2
1,1 4 18,4
4,6 3 18,4
Distributional impact of the main revenue and expenditure measures The aim of this section is to present the distributional effect before and after the new fiscal interventions. In order to estimate the distributional effect of the measures their impact is calculated on the equivalized disposable income of the individuals using certain inequality and poverty indices. With respect to the calculation of poverty indices results are provided using both the anchored and the floating poverty line.
13
Methodology The estimation of the distributional impact has been conducted using the Euromod Tax Benefit Microsimulation model for Greece on which the budgetary measures have been simulated. The data used as input data are the 2016 Greek national SILC data (incomes 2015). The sample consists of 44,014 individuals, corresponding to 18,255 households. When weights are used, the figures sum up to 10,630,471 individuals and 4,168,785 households, corresponding to the Greek population. It has to be underlined that the simulated policies concern personal taxes, benefits, social security contribution and that only first-round effects can be estimated. Policies that do not directly affect households, such as changes in corporate income taxation, or secondary effects of social security contribution changes (increases in employment that will increase incomes on a second round) cannot be estimated. Results Table 1 presents the mean annual equivalized disposable income (in euros) by decile for 2018 and the relative and absolute changes that occur in 2019 as a result of the fiscal interventions. The disposable income is the income that individuals and households finally have available for consumption or savings, thus after deducting direct taxes and social security contributions and after adding possible social transfers (pensions and benefits). Assuming that all households pool their resources and distribute them “equally� among the household members, the equivalized income is calculated using the OECD equivalent scales that give weights 1 to the first adult, 0.5 to other adults in the household and 0.3 to children under 14. The results show that the mean equivalized disposable income of individuals will increase by 0.31%. Table 1. Mean annual equivalised disposable income (EUR), relative and absolute changes 2018 2019 Decile Mean Absolute Relative (euros) change change (%) 1 2.501 140 5,59 2 4.183 76 1,82 3 5.349 19 0,36 4 6.307 -23 -0,37 5 7.291 -42 -0,58 6 8.360 -24 -0,28 7 9.679 -17 -0,17 8 11.387 -10 -0,08 9 13.734 8 0,06 10 22.426 152 0,68 All 9.118 28 0,31 * Changes are calculating with respect to 2018 mean equivalized income per decile. * The equivalized income is calculated using the OECD equivalent scales that give weights 1 to the first adult, 0.5 to other adults in the household and 0.3 to children under 14.
In Table 2 the main inequality indices are presented, calculated on the income distribution of 2018 and 2019. The Gini coefficient ranges between 0 (all incomes are equal) and 1 (one person has all the income). It is more sensitive to changes in the middle of the income distribution. The Mean Log Deviation Inequality Index (MLD) is zero when all incomes are equal, and takes larger positive values as incomes become more unequal, especially at the high end. Atkinson indices range between 0 (all incomes are equal) and 1 (one person has all the income). Atkinson 0.25 is more sensitive to changes at the top of the income 14
distribution, while Atkinson 0.75 is more sensitive to changes at the bottom of the income distribution. All inequality indices illustrate a decrease in inequality relative to 2018. Table 2. Inequality indices Gini Mean Log Deviation Atkinson index 0.25 Atkinson index 0.75
2018 0,323 0,181 0,046 0,129
2019 0,322 0,179 0,045 0,127
Dif 2019 -0,001 -0,002 0,000 -0,002
* Gini coefficient ranges between 0 (all incomes are equal) and 1 (only one person has all income). It is more sensible to changes in the middle of the income distribution. * MLD is zero when all incomes are equal, and takes larger positive values as incomes become more unequal, especially at the high end. * Atkinson indices range between 0 (all incomes are equal) and 1 (only one person has all income). Atkinson 0.25 is more sensible to changes at the top of the income distribution, while Atkinson 0.75 is more sensible to changes at the bottom of the income distribution.
Tables 3 shows the main poverty indices that are used for depicting the aggregate level of poverty in an economy with respect to the number of individuals under the poverty line (headcount ratio) and the depth of poverty (poverty gap and square poverty gap). The analysis of all indices is important, since some reforms might not decrease poverty vis-Ă -vis the headcount ratio, but might decrease extreme poverty and improve the poverty gap. In more detail, FGT(0) is the headcount ratio and shows the share of individuals whose income is below 60% of the median equivalized disposable income, for different concepts of income. FGT(1) is the poverty gap index and calculates the average of the differences between individual incomes and the 60% poverty line, expressed as a percentage of the poverty line, and calculated only for those below the poverty line. FGT (2) is the square of poverty gap and calculates the square of the average of the differences between individual incomes and the 60% poverty line, expressed as a percentage of the poverty line, and calculated only for those below the poverty line. The results are presented using both the anchored and the floating poverty line, always in relative terms as 60% of the median equivalized disposable income. When using the anchored poverty line (Table 3a) the absolute effect of the reforms is better assessed in comparison to the previous year. The floating poverty line (Table 3b) also takes into account the effect of changes in poverty line in the final result of the poverty level. The results indicate that when using the anchored 2018 poverty line (EUR 4,670), poverty decreases under all three indices.
Table 3a. FGT poverty indices FGT(0) FGT(1) FGT(2) Table 3b. FGT poverty indices 2018 FGT(0) 18,70 FGT(1) 5,71 FGT(2) 2,67
2018 18,70 5,71 2,67
2019 18,05 5,32 2,41
2019 18,18 5,37 2,44
Dif 2019 -0,52 -0,34 -0,23
Dif 2019 -0,65 -0,39 -0,25 15
* FGT (0) is the headcount ratio and shows % of individuals whose income is below 60% of the median equivalised disposable income. * FGT (1) is the poverty gap index and calculates the average of the differences between individual incomes and the 60% poverty line, expressed as a % of the poverty line, and calculated only for those below the poverty line. * FGT (2) is the square of poverty gap and calculates the square of the average of the differences between individual incomes and the 60% poverty line, expressed as a % of the poverty line, and calculated only for those below the poverty line. * Poverty line is anchored for tables A at EUR 4,670 % of the annual median equivalised disposable income of 2018 and floating for tables B (at EUR 4,604 for the baseline scenario and at EUR 4,650 for the alternative scenario).
ANNEX
16
Main assumptions 2017 (Levels) 1. External environment a. Prices of commodities b. Spreads of german Bond 2. Fiscal policy a. General Government net lending/ net borrowing b. General gross debt 3. Monetary policy / Financial sector / Interest rates assumptions a. interest rates i. Euribor ii. Deposit rates iii. Interest rates for loans iv. Yelds to maturity of 10 year government bonds b. Evolution of deposits c. Evolution of loans d. NPL Trends Demographic trends a. Evolution of working age population b. Dependency ratios
2018 (Levels)
2019 (Levels)
7 6
3 3
-1 3
1.454 317.404
740 335.000
1.081 323.500
-0,3 0,3 4,7 6,0 126,3 184,0 94,4
-0,3 0,3 4,6 4,0 132,8 185,1 81,5
-0,2 0,3 4,4 3,8 137,4 190,7 64,6
6.893.800 34,0
6.835.100 34,7
6.776.500 35,3
Price Developments 2017 (Levels) 1. GDP deflator 2. Private consumption deflator 3. HICP 4. Public consumption deflator 5. Investment deflator 6. Export price deflator (goods and services) 7. Import price deflator (goods and services)
95 97 101,2 88,8 96,1 98,8 94
2017 2018 2019 (rate of (rate of (rate of change) change) change) 0,7 0,9 1,3 1,2 0,6 1,2 1,1 0,6 1,2 1,8 2 0,8 0,3 2,8 0,6 4,2 3,6 0,6 4,7 4,7 0,3
Labour market developments 2017 (Levels)
Employment, persons Employment, hours worked Unemployment rate (%) Labour productivity, persons Compensation of employees Compensation per employee
4.170 8.464.838 1.027 40 59.741 21.385
2017 (rate of change)
2,1 1,8 21,5 -0,7 2,3 0,1
2018 (rate of change)
1,7 1,7 19,9 0,2 2,9 1,2
2019 (rate of change)
1,8 1,8 18,2 0,4 3,3 1,4
17
Sectoral Balances (% of GDP)
1. Net lending/borrowing vis-a-vis the rest of the world
2017 0
2018 0,6
2019 1,1
-1,1 0,2 0,9 -0,8 0,8
-0,1 0,3 0,4 0,2 0,4
0,2 0 0,9 0,5 0,6
of which
- Balance on goods and services - Balance of primary incomes and transfers - Capital account 2. Net lending/borrowing of the private sector 3. Net lending/borrowing of general government
Contingent liabilities (% of GDP)
2018
Public guarantees Public guarantees: linked to the financial sector
2019 6,6 3,2
3,8 0,7
Amounts to be excluded from the expenditure benchmark 2017 (Levels) 1. Expenditure on EU programmes fully matched by EU funds revenue 1a. Investment expenditure fully matched by EU funds revenue 2. Cyclical unemployment benefit expenditure 3. Effect of discretionary revenue measures 4. Revenues increased mandated by law
1874 1869 272 2008 M
2017 (% of GDP) 1,05 1,05 0,15 1,13 M
2018 (% of GDP) 2,03 1,97 0,13 0,19 M
2019 (% of GDP) 1,95 1,95 0,1 -0,22 M
18
HELLENIC REPUBLIC MINISTRY OF FINANCE GENERAL ACCOUNTING OFFICE
DRAFT BUDGETARY PLAN 2019 ADDENDUM
October 2018
1
1. Table 0a External Assumptions 2017 -0,33 1,03 1,13 2,2 3,9 2,4 5,3 5,3 52,81
Short-term interest rate (annual average) Long-term interest rate (annual average) USD/€ exchange rate (annual average) Nominal effective exchange rate World excluding EU, GDP growth EU GDP growth Growth of relevant foreign markets World import volumes, excluding EU Oil prices (Brent, USD/barrel)
2018 -0,33 1,12 1,18 5,1 4,2 2,1 4,1 4,9 70,23
2019 -0,2 1,32 1,14 0,6 4,1 2 3,6 4,4 68,99
2. Table 4ci a) %GDP, amounts 2018 (% of GDP) Education Health Employment
4,0 4,9 0,5
2018 (mil €)
2019 (% of GDP)
7360,2 8956 976
2019 (mil €)
3,8 4,8 0,6
7316,8 9118 1080
b) %GDP, %General government Expenditure 2018 (% of GDP)
Education Health Employment
4,0 4,9 0,5
2018 % general government consolidated expenditure
2019 (% of GDP)
8% 10% 1%
3,8 4,8 0,6
2019 % general government consolidated expenditure 8% 10% 1%
2
3. Tables 5 a) Discretionary measures taken by the General Government Detailed description Measure 1 Reduction of ENFIA (Unified property Average 10% reduction on ENFIA (Unified property tax) tax) 2 Reduction of social security contributions for self-employed, independent professionals and famers 3 Non - implementation of the Public Investment counter-measure 4 Non implementation of pension reform
5 Non - implementation of Social Protection counter-measures
6 Housing allowance recalibration
7 Subsidy on the SSCs recalibration
8 Special education
ESA
D.2: Taxes on production and imports Reduction of social security contributions for selfD.61: Social employed (OAEE), independent professionals (ETAA) and contributions famers (OGA). The impact has been reduced from an original calculation of 229 mil to 177, because of the assumption of improved collectability. Non - implementation of the Public Investment countermeasure (energy efficiency, agricultural infrastructure, investment law 4399/2016). Non implementation of the pre-legislated (law 4472/2017) pension reform. The net impact of the measure is -1,09% of GDP, because of the resulting increase in PIT (D.5) and social contributions (D.61). Non - implementation of the pre-legislated Social Protection counter-measures (school meals, increase of pre-schooling and nursery units, housing allowance, active employment policy programmes, co-payment of prescribed medicines) with the exception of the family benefits which has been implemented. Recalibration of the housing allowance adopted in the context of the pre-legislated package in a more targeted manner The subsidy on SSCs included in the pre-legislated package becomes more targeted to only include young employees up to 24 years old. The subsidy covers 100% of employee’s contribution and 50% of employer’s contribution. Hiring of 4,500 teachers and specialized staff for positions currently occupied by temporary teachers.
Accounting Adoption status principle Accrual Not yet adopted but credibly planned
2018
2019
0
-0,1
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,09
P.51: Gross fixed Cash capital formation
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
0,16
D.62: Social payments
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-1,56
D.62+D.63+D.621 Cash +D.624+D.631: Social payments
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
0,75
D.62: Social payments
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,11
D.3: Subsidies
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,05
D.1: Cash Compensation of employees
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,01
b) Discretionary measures taken by the Central Government Measure
Detailed description
1 Reduction of ENFIA (Unified property Average 10% reduction on ENFIA (Unified property tax) tax) 2 Non - implementation of the Public Investment counter-measure 3 Non - implementation of Social Protection counter-measures
4 Housing allowance recalibration
5 Subsidy on the SSCs recalibration
6 Special education
Non - implementation of the Public Investment countermeasure (energy efficiency, agricultural infrastructure, investment law 4399/2016). Non - implementation of the pre-legislated Social Protection counter-measures (school meals, increase of pre-schooling and nursery units, housing allowance, active employment policy programmes, co-payment of prescribed medicines) with the exception of the family benefits which has been implemented. Recalibration of the housing allowance adopted in the context of the pre-legislated package in a more targeted manner The subsidy on SSCs included in the pre-legislated package becomes more targeted to only include young employees up to 24 years old. The subsidy covers 100% of employee’s contribution and 50% of employer’s contribution. Hiring of 4,500 teachers and specialized staff for positions currently occupied by temporary teachers.
ESA
Accounting Adoption status principle Accrual Not yet adopted but credibly planned
2018
2019
0
-0,1
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
0,16
D.62+D.63+D.621 Cash +D.624+D.631: Social payments
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
0,75
D.62: Social payments
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,11
D.3: Subsidies
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,05
D.1: Cash Compensation of employees
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
0
-0,01
D.2: Taxes on production and imports P.51: Gross fixed Cash capital formation
c) Discretionary measures taken by sub-sectors of the General Government – Social security funds Measure
Detailed description
ESA
1 Reduction of social security contributions for self-employed, independent professionals and famers
Reduction of social security contributions for selfD.61: Social employed (OAEE), independent professionals (ETAA) and contributions famers (OGA). The impact has been reduced from an original calculation of 229 mil to 177, because of the assumption of improved collectability.
2 Non implementation of pension reform
Non implementation of the pre-legislated (law 4472/2017) D.62: Social pension reform. The net impact of the measure is -1,09% payments of GDP, because of the resulting increase in PIT (D.5) and social contributions (D.61).
Accounting Adoption status principle Cash Not yet adopted but credibly planned
Cash
Not yet adopted but credibly planned
2018
2019
0
-0,09
0
-1,56
3
4. Table 6b Targets set by the Union's Strategy for growth and jobs
1.
National Targets
List of Measures
Description of direct relevance to address the target
Employment Target: 70% in the age group 2064
Operational upgrade of the Greek Employment Fund (OAED)
The project aims at strengthening existing IT capacity and at creating simplified administrative procedures in order to improve the quality of services offered to the unemployed. In parallel, a Quality Protocol is being created for Vocational Training Centers.
Mechanism for monitoring labour market needs
Re-design of active labour market policies
Strengthening vocational training
Online internship platform
Reduction of Social Security Contributions
Social Security Contributions subsidy for young employees
The mechanism aims at diagnosing the needs that arise in the labour market and provide additional analytical information on the specific sectors and professions that display particular dynamism. The main objective consists in moving from standard active labour market programs to open type programs that are analyzed in detail in the "Strategic Framework for the ReDesign of Active Labour Market Policies�. In this new type of programs, a central role will be played by the Employment Fund's labour consultants who will be responsible for recording the unemployed individuals' skills, for supporting them and for directing them towards the most appropriate alternative on the basis of their qualifications. It includes a series of actions and projects that are already running in order to strengthen the connection between vocational training and the labour market, to familiarize people of young age with vocational training programs and their operation, to improve these programs' quality and to achieve a closer tie between initial and consequent vocational training. Future actions include the creation of new, specialized continuous vocational training programs for specific high demand professions. An online application in OAED's website is operational since 2017, allowing accredited employers to submit calls for internship positions. It is expected that a fraction of the internship positions to be thus covered will be transformed to full employment positions. The measure consists in a reduction of social security contributions rate for independent professionals, selfemployed and farmers and will take effect from 01/01/2019. The SSC current rate is reduced by 1/3 and the minimum income base will be implemented for supplementary pension and lump-sums. The above categories suffered a significant burden as a result of the switch from notional to actual income base that was introduced in the 2016 pension reform, while the increase in contributions led to a drop both in the number of self-employed and independent professionals and in their declared income. By reducing the often excessive burden on the above categories, the measure aims at reversing the trend and at supporting higher employment ratios among the self-employed and independent professionals, as well as at increasing tax compliance. The subsidy will be applied for employees up to 24 years of age and it will cover 100% of employees' contributions and 50% of employers' contributions. The objective of the measure is to improve access of young people to the labour market and to lead to the creation of new jobs for the specific age cohort in order to contribute to the reduction of youth unemployment which is currently the highest among the E.U. member states. In addition, the measure is expected to have a beneficial impact on poverty rates recorded for the specific category, as well as to lead to a reduction in income inequality. It will take effect from 01/01/2019.
4
Reduction in Corporate Income Tax rate
Reduction in distributed earnings tax rate
2.
R&D Target: 1.2% of GDP
Inquire - Create - Innovate
Establishment of ELIDEK
RIS3
3.
4.
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Target: -4% in relation to 2005
Renewable Energy Sources Target: 20% of gross final energy consumption
-
RES new support scheme
Energy offset and virtual energy offset
The measure refers to the gradual reduction in the CIT rate from 29% to 25%, the reduction being uniformly allocated in the years 2019-2022. The rate will be reduced to 28% for 2019 and to 27% for 2020, implying that a significant part of its effect will be realized in the next two years, thus contributing to Greece's effort for achieving the 2020 national target. The reduction in companies' tax burden is expected to provide incentives for investment and to lead to a rise in labour demand, hence further contributing to economic recovery and to the attainment of strong growth rates in the coming years. The measure will take effect from 01/01/2019 and consists in a reduction of the rate applied to dividends from 15% to 10%. Along with the reduction in the corporate income tax rate, this measure is expected to further increase incentives for investment activity and at a very low fiscal cost that will only be incurred from 2020 onwards. The specific action is financed through the NSRF and aims at connecting research and innovation to entrepreneurship and at strengthening companies' productivity and competitiveness in order to increase domestically produced value added. The purpose is the direct and efficient transfer of available resources in order to promote research activity and the implementation of innovations, especially in SMEs. The majority of enterprises that participate in the action are small and medium size start-ups. The Hellenic Foundation for Research and Innovation was established in 2017 and manages additional resources directed to R&D, on the basis of a financing agreement with the European Investment Bank. The main objective is to support researchers and already from 2017 a significant number of relevant actions are being implemented, focusing mainly on the support of PhD candidates, post-doc researchers and university research, as well as on the procurement of research equipment. The National Research and Innovation Strategies for Smart Specialization (RIS3) is characterized by a specific sectoral dimension that was obtained through the entrepreneurial discovery process and includes the agri-food sector, health and life sciences, ICT, energy, environment and sustainable development, transport and logistics, construction, and culture. These priority sectors are analyzed through three core strategic choices, consisting in investment in the creation and diffusion of new knowledge, strengthening of innovative enterprises and developing an innovation mentality along with the related institutions and the necessary linkages between innovation and society. The strategic choices are implemented through a series of specific actions whose activation has started since 2016 and that include, among others, the financing of innovation clusters, of spin-offs and start-ups, as well as of enterprises that have received a Seal of Excellence. -
The support scheme for the production of electricity from RES was amended in 2016 in order to achieve the gradual integration and participation of RES in the electricity market in an optimal and economically efficient manner. The new scheme incentivizes RES producers to react to prevailing market prices, while it provides incentives to investors in the industry to take the expected load curves of the system into account in the design and operation of their projects. These incentives, provided through the feed in premium (FIP) mechanism, contribute to the increased integration of RES in the electricity market and lead to a more efficient combination of supply and demand. The energy offset program for the production of electricity by individual producers has been running since 2014, aiming at achieving energy savings and reductions in energy cost. Since its inception, the scheme has been extended to cover most types of RES technologies, while a 2017 amendment introduced the concept of virtual energy offset, making the offsetting principle independent from the location at which power is being generated and electricity is consumed.
5
Energy communities
8.
5.
Energy Efficiency Target: reduction by 2.85 Mtoe
Buildings' energy efficiency programs
6.
Early School Leaving Target: 9,7%
Strengthening special education
7.
Tertiary Education Target: 32% in the 30-34 age group
Poverty Target: Reduction of population at risk of poverty or social exclusion by 450,000
-
The institution of energy communities has been introduced in order to promote the role of the social economy and of innovation in the energy sector, to address energy poverty, to promote energy sustainability, to strengthen energy security in island communities and to improve energy efficiency in final use at both a local and a regional level. Energy communities are non-profit organizations that are active in the fields of RES, energy efficiency, demand management and production and distribution of energy at a local and regional level. The main objective is to create local value added and address instances of energy poverty by strengthening the role of citizens and local communities. Increasing the energy efficiency of buildings has been one of the cornerstones of the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency, mainly due to the high potential for efficiency increases as a result of the fact that most buildings - private and public - had been constructed prior to 1980. The main focus during the current programming period has been given to private buildings where NSRF financing has been used to subsidize energy upgrades that lead to significant increases in efficiency. In the context of the same programs, further calls for the energy upgrade of both private and public buildings will be issued, securing additional progress until 2020 and beyond. Special education has been significantly reinforced over the previous years in order to support children with special needs and combat early school leaving in this vulnerable category. Programs for the further training of teachers are being designed, among else for the early detection of learning difficulties. The hiring of 4,500 teachers and specialized staff in permanent positions where the needs are currently covered through contracts is expected to further reinforce special education and to secure continuity of support.
-
Social Solidarity Income
The SSI constitutes the first guaranteed minimum income scheme to be implemented in Greece. Its implementation started in 2016 through a pilot phase in thirty municipalities, while its national rollout was accomplished in 2017. The scheme's objective is to financially support individuals and families living under conditions of extreme poverty, to ensure their access to social services and to assist the beneficiaries in the process of their reintegration into the labour market. Through its emphasis on the bottom end of the income distribution, the SSI has a positive impact not only on the headcount ratio of people at risk of poverty or social exclusion, but also on the poverty gap.
Establishment of OPEKA
The Organization for Welfare Benefits and Social Solidarity was founded in 2018 and constitutes the single entity that will take over both the implementation of welfare policies and actions and the payment of the related benefits. The creation of a single entity that will be responsible for the execution of welfare policy is expected, besides the obvious administrative advantages, to indirectly affect the efficiency of welfare and poverty reduction policies by providing with the possibility of a more rational and streamlined welfare system that is better suited to identify the areas where assistance is mostly needed, as well as possible overlaps among different policies that may reduce the efficiency of public welfare spending.
6
Family benefits
Housing allowance
The reform of the family benefits was originally included in the 2019 pre-legislated expansionary package, but its implementation took effect from 2018 as a result of improved fiscal conditions. As a result of this reform, the total support towards poor families with children was significantly increased, while the structure of the benefit and the eligibility criteria were rationalized in order to improve targeting and to achieve a stronger effect in terms of poverty and inequality reduction. The introduction of a housing allowance constitutes a new measure that will take effect from 01/01/2019 and will further strengthen the welfare safety net for the poorest households through targeted eligibility criteria, while its design will moreover take into account poverty trap considerations and the possible creation of work disincentives.
___
7