5: FUTURE ENERGY SCENARIOS

The war has long-lasting effects on the global energy system. It has an essential role in accelerating energy transition worldwide. The structure of energy demand changes, ensuring the need for a growing share of renewable energy. Countries have taken strategies toward the transition to low-carbon economies and increased domestically produced renewables.

bp has three scenarios to consider a range of possible pathways for the global energy system to 2050. The scenarios are Accelerated, Net Zero, and New Momentum. These scenarios are not predicted what is likely to happen, but rather, span a wide range of possible outcomes out to 20250. bp’s Energy Outlook 2023 has been updated to take into account two major developments over the past year the Russian-Ukraine war and the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US, according to bp energy outlook.

Fossil fuels share is expected to decline from around 65% in 2019 to 20-50% by 2050 across the three scenarios. The role of electricity increases substantially and broadly across all three scenarios, with consumption increasing by around 75% by 2050. While the share of renewables in global primary energy increased from around 10% in 2019 to between 35-65% by 2050, driven by improving the cost competitiveness of renewables, as well as, encouraging a shift to low-carbon energy. In all three scenarios, renewable energy penetrates the global energy system quicker than any previous fuel in history, according to bp energy outlook.

In the Accelerated scenario, fossil fuels would represent 29% of primary energy consumption by 2050. Renewable energy consumption would represent 57% in 2050. The Net Zero scenario expects that the share of fossil fuel in primary energy consumption would represent 18% by 2050. While renewable energy would represent 64%. Under the New Momentum scenario, fossil fuels would represent 55% of primary energy consumption. The share of renewables in energy demand could reach only 35% by 2050, according to bp energy outlook.

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B. IRENA

The

Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) World energy transitions Scenarios aims at achieving a climate-safe future in line with the goals of The Paris Agreement. The 1.5°C pathway positions electrification and efficiency as key drivers of the energy transition, enabled by renewables, hydrogen, and sustainable biomass. This pathway requires a massive change in how societies produce and consume energy. It would result in a cut of nearly 37 gigatonnes of annual CO2 emissions by 2050.

C. The IEA

The IEA medium to long-term outlook publications – the World Energy Outlook (WEO) and the Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) - use a scenario approach to examine future energy trends relying on the Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model.

The GEC Model is used to explore various scenarios, each of which is built on a different set of underlying assumptions about how the energy system might respond to the current global energy crisis and evolve thereafter.

The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE Scenario) is normative, in that it is designed to achieve specific outcomes, an emissions trajectory consistent with keeping the temperature rise in 2,100 below 1.5 °C (with a 50% probability), universal access to modern energy services and major improvements in air quality and shows a pathway to reach it.

The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) are exploratory, in that they define a set of starting conditions, such as policies and targets, and then see where they lead based on model representations of energy systems, including market dynamics and technological progress. APS's main target is to show how current pledges get the world towards limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. On the other hand, STEPS aims to provide a benchmark to assess the potential achievements of recent developments in energy and climate policy.

D. OPEC

OPEC’s World Oil Outlook (WOO) is part of the organization’s commitment to market stability. It highlights and shows the energy outlook, possible future challenges and opportunities for the oil industry and is updated per year.

Global primary energy demand is expected to increase by 5.8% in the period between 2035 and 2045. Renewable energy share of global primary energy demand is expected to increase from 25.8% in 2035 to 30.4% in 2045. Gas is expected to follow the renewables increase. Oil and coal is expected to witness a decline of 4.9% between 2035 and 2045.