9 minute read
DESTINATION
E g
INSIGHT
— FREDRIK EKLUND
THE SKY IS NO LONGER THE LIMIT
EXPERTS FORESEE PEOPLE TRAVELING TO THE MOON AND MARS WITHIN A DECADE. HERE’S HOW IT COULD HAPPEN.
BY STEPHANIE THURROTT
— GEORGE NIELD, PH.D., PRESIDENT, COMMERCIAL SPACE TECHNOLOGIES overnments have controlled who could visit space for decades, ever since 1961 when Soviet cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin orbited the Earth. But now that’s changing. Deep-pocketed corporations are sending people on spaceflights:
Virgin Galactic, led by Richard Branson, took a passenger on a spaceflight in February 2019 and is now booking reservations — at $450,000 apiece — for people who want to travel to space.
Blue Origin sent four people, including founder Jeff Bezos, to space in July 2021, and three more spaceflights have followed.
Elon Musk’s Space X has transported astronauts to the International Space Station and the company is developing its Starship with plans to take people on a spaceflight around the moon and back and eventually to Mars.
While these big-name billionaires and their businesses grab attention, they aren’t the only companies taking people into space. At least 18 players are active in the private spaceflight field, aiming to send people to crewed space stations, the moon and Mars.
George Nield, Ph.D., is president at Commercial Space Technologies and was a passenger on Blue Origin NS-20, which launched in March 2022. Nield believes the transition from governments being responsible for space missions to private industry is a significant transformation, with private sectors more willing to innovate and take on risks.
56 GLOBAL IS THE NEW LOCAL THE CREW DRAGON SPACECRAFT IS CAPABLE OF CARRYING UP TO SEVEN PASSENGERS TO AND FROM EARTH’S ORBIT, AND BEYOND.
He acknowledges the criticism that space tourism is a joyride for billionaires. “I have a different perspective on that. We are not using taxpayer dollars to send just a few highly trained, specially selected government employees to have this experience,” he says. “Some of the folks leading these companies now have very grandiose visions. Richard Branson wants to have the first global space lines to help people travel long distances. Jeff Bezos talks about millions of people living and working in space to benefit Earth. And Elon Musk talks about wanting to be an interplanetary species someday. It’s not just for fun, even though it really is fun and memorable. Space is our future. It can provide so many different benefits to Earth and to those of us who live on it.”
WHY SEND PEOPLE TO SPACE?
Nield anticipates scientific research stations and, eventually, bases on the moon where people can live, work and study over long periods of time. Sizeable numbers of people could go to Mars as well — Mars could become an outpost for humanity if climate change or some unforeseeable event makes Earth uninhabitable.
“It is hard to comprehend that such a thing could happen, but the technology seems to be there, so it’s just a question of who would want to go, how much would they be willing to pay and what kind of risk are we willing to accept in order to have that kind of a journey?” Nield says.
Some people would sign on to a oneway trip to Mars, which may sound extreme, but isn’t that different from the way people would come to the new world a few centuries ago, saying goodbye to their family and friends and setting up a new life in North America, Nield pointed out.
And closer to home, space travel could make it possible to travel from one side of the Earth to the other in about an hour. “That could be a real game-changer in terms of how we communicate, travel and do business,” Nield remarks. “I see that coming in the next ten years.”
Matt Gohd is chief executive officer of Zero-G, a space tourism company. He asserts, “Once you blast out with a bunch of people outside of the Earth’s orbit, anything
AS A LITTLE BOY, GEORGE NIELD CUT ARTICLES AND PHOTOS ABOUT SPACE AND AVIATION OUT OF NEWSPAPERS AND MAGAZINES TO MAKE SCRAPBOOKS. “I WATCHED THE SPACE CHIMPS, THE MERCURY ASTRONAUTS AND THE MOON LANDINGS,” HE SAYS.
He has built his career in space and aviation, serving as the FAA’s associate administrator for Commercial Space Transportation from 2008 to 2018 before moving to his current position as president of Commercial Space Technologies, LLC.
On March 31, 2022, he realized his lifelong dream of visiting space — he was one of six passengers on Blue Origin’s fourth human spaceflight. “At this point in my life and career, to have that opportunity to actually experience it personally was very, very special,” he says. “I’m still thinking about it and dreaming about it.”
Nield says his training for the Blue Origin flight lasted three days. The crew went through the mission in a simulator — hearing the sounds they would hear onboard, interpreting displays, knowing what to do in case of emergency and getting into and out of the capsule in normal gravity and weightlessness. He felt well equipped for the trip, but he said there’s no way to prepare for the breathtaking sight of the Earth from space.
“The view was just incredible. It’s hard to put into words. To be able to look out and see the curvature of the Earth, and then the very bright but narrow band right above that which was the atmosphere, and then above that, black sky. It was the blackest black that you could imagine. The entire picture was just amazing and so very beautiful. I think it’s the most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen. I get goosebumps and choke up a little bit just remembering it,” he says.
Liftoff was smooth but rapid, with forces of about 3G. “So it felt like you weighed three times as much as you normally do as you were pushed back in your seat,” he says.
After the main engine cut off and the capsule separated, the crew unstrapped and floated around the cabin. “Having the opportunity to be weightless for several minutes and do somersaults and so forth was fun and interesting, but the view was just incredible,” he says.
On the descent they reached 5.5Gs briefly before the parachutes came out to slow them. “It’s a nice, smooth descent,” he says. “They have a system that fires some thrusters just before impact to slow you down.”
is possible.” But a few things have to happen before everyday people can start booking trips to space. Space travel needs to become less expensive, safer and better regulated.
THE COST OF SPACE TOURISM NEEDS TO DROP
Despite the astronomical ticket price of a trip to space, right now there are people willing to pay for that exclusive experience.
But Gohd anticipates trips to space for less than $100,000 within ten years. “Even though $100,000 is still expensive, it becomes within the reach of a lot of people for the absolute ultimate thing to do,” he says. “And then I think the price will just continually go down.”
If Blue Origin successfully creates an orbital rocket, they’ll compete with Space X, which should drive down prices. “Maybe it gets down to an expensive first-class [airplane] ticket — $20,000 or $25,000 bucks — and at that point, with multiple launches, the idea of going to space is very reachable,” Gohd says.
SPACE TRAVEL NEEDS TO BECOME LESS DANGEROUS
In the roughly 400 human spaceflights from the United States since the beginning of the Space Age, there have been four fatal accidents. “That’s a 1% fatal accident rate, which is pretty high. It’s about 10,000 times as risky as traveling on a commercial airliner,” Nield says.
He noted that the field of aviation had a lot of fatal accidents in its history, but now it’s the safest form of transportation. “My hope is that we can see that same kind of evolution in space transportation,” Nield says. Space travel will become safer with more experience and more data. That will make the key risks clear, so designers and engineers can create safer, more reliable, less costly systems and incorporate new technologies and innovation.
Training passengers will also help improve safety. “I could see a multipleweek training process for a passenger,” Gohd says. And passengers will need to be healthy enough to travel. He doesn’t think age will be a barrier, but some degree of physical health will be necessary. “If something happens up there, it’s not like there’s an air evac helicopter that’s going to bring you to Cedars-Sinai,” he says.
SPACE TOURISM NEEDS STRONGER REGULATION
A congressional ruling that expires in October 2023 bans the Federal Aviation Administration from regulating the safety of people traveling to space. “Rather than having the same type of approval process as we do for airplanes, it’s set up using something called informed consent,” Nield says.
It’s similar to the consent you give for a medical procedure — you learn the risks and decide if you still want to go through with it. “There definitely is risk involved, and I think that framework will probably be with us for a number of decades while we’re learning how to do this.”
THE BOTTOM LINE
Within ten years, trips like today’s suborbital spaceflights may be within reach for a lot of people, at least as bucket-list trips. The billions of dollars being poured into space tourism should help resolve the safety and regulatory issues, and as more companies send more flights to space, increased supply will drive prices down.
REACH THE EDGE OF SPACE IN A HOT AIR BALLOON
If a rocket’s not your thing, how about taking a balloon to the edge of space? At least two companies, World View and Space Perspective, plan to launch six- to 12-hour-long balloon trips that will reach 100,000 feet or almost 19 miles above the Earth.
Travelers will be able to see the sun rise over the Earth’s curved surface, the thin band of the atmosphere and the stars in the night sky. The balloon flights are currently booking at $50,000 to $125,000. But Matt Gohd predicts that within ten years prices will be comparable to the cost of a high-end resort, or $2,000 to $3,000.
