Market Success of Pedelecs based on technology and general Market trends. 05. March 2010 City Hall / Prag
Hannes Neupert President ExtraEnergy e.V. Treasurer EnergyBus e.V. Industrial Designer, independent consultant
Content: - Self Introduction - LEV Definition - LEV Market - Why Pedelecs will be successful - General phenomena of „Electrification“ - Battery Technology used today in LEV‘s - Battery Safety Experience in the LEV Market - Connectivity and Standardization
Self introduction Hannes Neupert, Solar car racing since 1985, Since 1992 working only on electric bicycle Tests, since 2001 focussed on Battery safety and connectivity.
Self introduction ExtraEnergy e.V. a consumer protection non for profit organization headquartered in Tanna Germany. Promoting the use of LEV‘s especially Pedelecs by making available independent Test data, organizing conferences, trade fairs...
Self introduction EnergyBus e.V. a Industry standardization non for profit organization headquartered in Tanna Germany. Promoting a common connector family and communication protocol to be used within the LEV market to allow for example hassle free public charging and global service.
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LEV Definition - 4 subgroups: Muscle(LEV) Electric Definition Hybrid Vehicles Light Electric Vehicle
Pure Light Electric Vehicles
Pure Electric Sports and Leisure Vehicles
Pure Electric Work Assist Vehicles
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Muscle Electric Hybrid Vehicle Subcategories: Light Electric Vehicle (LEV) Definition
E-Bike:
E-Bike: Accelerate independent from the muscle power input by twisting the throttle!
Pedelec:
Pedelec: An abbreviation of Pedal-ElectricCycle. It assists you only when you pedal.
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Electric Bike and the drawer is open! for elderly people for handicapped for fat people for unsporty for lazy people = nothing for me!
for embarrassing items where nobody wants to spend money fore!
Marketing agencies which have no Idea about LEV‘s prefare usually the terminology E-Bike!
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The term Pedelec opens a chance for a unbiased test ride! 52 000 CZK for such a pedelec - quite a reasonable price for such a cool item!
Pedelec - What is that? Can I try it? Wow! now I have tried it that is really cool it has made real fun! I did not expect so much.
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What is a Pedelec?
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Testride = The only chance to get it! Please try it today at the Forebikes Exhibition.
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Pedelec = Bicycle with incline removal functionality Bicycle-Rider-Fun but not bicycle rider hassle like pushing uphill...
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Cycling without arriving at work sweated and exhausted... Cycling with integrated motivator unit...
Pedelec riding is not sporty? „Pedelec usage is not sporty since you do not need to move your body as much as on a normal bicycle!“
Cars are sporty!
This physical lie proves: Public reception is just based on good marketing!
Public reception is not logical:
Sporty! ?
Lazy!
Not used by anyone in industrialized countries anymore
Used by everyone in industrialized countries
Common associations: - old fashioned - grand mother style - only for poor people in developing countries - hard and terrible work
Common associations: - easy - modern lifestyle - clever - ecological friendly - comfy
Fact no 1: The human is a lazy animal! Watch stairs and escalators in any city in the world - and you will find the proof! True as well for Prague! Just the same humans everywhere...
Future based on laziness! Pedelecs are the escalator, the washing machine as well the daily exercise machine - they are becoming to be the iconic image of modern mobility.
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Sparta TV TV Spot 2004
Sparta has made it to remove the Pedelec in the netherlands from the old and handicapped image corner and make it a acceptable and smart mobility device!
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„No need to be ashamed anymore, when riding an electric bike“ February 2008, one of the biggest morning news papers of The Netherlands.
Pedelecs do not need to be embarrassing:
The Netherlands market is the most developed pedelec market in Europe, and about 3 years ahead of the german market and many more ears ahead of other EU markets... It is like a window into the future of pedelec sales for other countries. According to the BOVAG organization in 2009 150 000 Pedelecs where sold in The Netherlands. 30% market growth compared to 2008! 10% of the sold bicycles in 2009 have been Pedelecs 30% of the turn over money-wise has been made with Pedelecs According to industry insiders from the Netherlands the real numbers are even higher: about 200 000 Pedelecs sold, which is about 16% of the market share in numbers and about 35-40% of the turn over!
Cycles per person - Pedelecs are the modern cycles
Daily bicycle usage:
Sales and sales route data:
LEV Market: The total number of LEV‘s sold in 2008 (only electric scooters and Pedelec/E-Bikes counted). Have been over 23 Million units Worldwide! (Source EBWW Report Frank Jamerson)
Strong differences are visible between the main market in China and the markets in NorthAmerica, Europe and Japan.
LEV Market in China: In China the electric drive is domination and it is not intended by the most users to use the pedals they are more or less a emergency propulsion device to get back to the charger.
Jean if he does not want to sell it we can just skip it!
• Chinese fast food delivery E-Bike! • • • •
E-Bike brand: Year purchased: Price when purchased when new: Typical usage: several deliveries a day with chinese fast food for customers
LEV Market in NA, Europe, Japan: People enjoy mild daily exercise and expect the motor assist to just support and relieve the stress from steep inclines and accelerations.
Market growth expectation till 2018 in German market: 3.000.000
2.250.000
1.500.000
750.000
0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
conservative
2010
2011
2016 2017 2015 2014 2012 2013
realistic
progressive
2018
Worldwide sales according to EBWR: 30.000.000
22.500.000
15.000.000
7.500.000
USA
World
SE Asia Taiwan Europe Japan
0
India China
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Turnover / Euro: 8.000.000.000
6.000.000.000
4.000.000.000
2.000.000.000
World USA, 450 Euro SE Asia, 150 Euro Taiwan, 450 Euro Europa, 1300 Euro Japan, 900 Euro
0
India, 150 Euro China, 150 Euro
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Profit / Euro: 1.500.000.000
1.125.000.000 750.000.000 World USA, 180 Euro SE Asia, 4 Euro Taiwan, 150 Euro Europa, 350 Euro Japan, 250 Euro
375.000.000 0
India, 4 Euro China, 4 Euro
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Relationship to other traffic tools:
Why Pedelecs will be successful 10 key reasons: 1) Easy parking 2) More movements per street 3) Low costs of ownership 4) Low emissions 5) Safe 6) Provides mobility 7) Good for health 8) Energy-Efficient 9) Helping to reach CO2 Emission Targets 10) Sustainable
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Easy parking -Cycles and pedelecs do need minimum parking space = Creating room for green areas and playgrounds in urban areas! More movements per street - Cycles as well as pedelecs use the road very efficient.
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Low costs of ownership - Extremely low cost of ownership and operation. A best practice example from Salzburg shows that with a monthly lease of about 40 Euro it is possible to use a pedelec.
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Low emissions - Less emissions of Noise, exhaust gasses and particle emissions.
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Safe - Lower danger potential as cars due to the lower mass and lower speed. Provides mobility - Fulfills most daily mobility needs of most people.
Why Pedelecs will be successful: Statistic about reasons for unnatural death England 2003:
2003, Source - Bike to Work Tim Grahl und Carlton Reid
Good for health - according to the WHO extended lifetime of up to 8 years if used daily for light exercise of minimum 30 continues minutes.
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Efficient - The most efficient mode of transportation ever developed.
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Helping to reach CO2 Emission Targets - A new car is still emitting about 150 g CO2 per km in the EU! The Gepida Reptila 1000 emits only 11,7 g CO2 per km according to the ExtraEnergy Test 2009/2010 (3 g electrically based on the german energy mix with coal, gas and oil power plants plus 8,7 g out of human exercise based on average german diet and CO2 balance of the food)
Why Pedelecs will be successful:
Sustainable - The CO2 balance can be easily improved by using renewable energy sources!
General phenomena of „Electrification“ As it has happened to many other products before it will happen to the bicycle as well - the virus of „electronification“ will kill the mechanical bicycle within a few years like it has killed many other mechanical products before.
Vision: Future Bicycle = Pedelec! I believe that the Pedelec as a electronic counterpart of the bicycle will dominate the Bicycle market in the near future due to so many more options and Features which can never be realized by a mechanical solution!
The 3 Rules of electronification: A) Much more customers due to more applications based on the software driven features - ranges factor 3-30 B) Much higher pricing due to higher user value ranges between factor 3-4 C) Much shorter usage cycle due to faster development cycles which are creating replacement wishes by the customer who wants the latest features
Theory proven in the German market: 0
500
1000 1500
Pedelecs MTB suspension
Pedelec 1685 Euro
Speciality bicycles Roadracers MTB no suspension Terkingbikes
times 3,25
Foldingbikes ATB Citybikes Children bicycles
Citybike 517 Euro 2007
2008
Battery Technology used today in LEV‘s: In the Pedelec Market the Lithium battery is dominating in Japan, Europe but not jet in the North American Market. In China the PB Battery is still domination but it seems that the switch will be step-less from PB to Lithium as it is already visible in the Bicycle stores in China today.
Currently sold LEV Batteries EU Market:
Retails in the average for 574 Euro between 348 and 970 Euro Average capacity 298 Wh ranges from 212 to 648 Wh Typical voltage 24-36V Average weight 3,2 kg ranges from 2,2 to 8,5 kg All pictured removable batteries of the April 2009 Pedelec Tests are lithium chemistry!
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The Pedelec battery has changed to Lithium!
2008
The Pedelec industry has changed in just 6 Years to over 90% Lithium batteries. Due to the improved capacity per weight, easy handling and long lifetime!
2009
Battery Safety Experience with LEV‘s Many accidents, have happened in the past several years. Several houses of customers have burned down. Several Bicycle stores, Bicycle factories have been heavily damaged. Just good luck nobody has died so far! That is why ExtraEnergy has developed a Battery Safety test protocol for LEV Lithium Batteries together with UL, TĂœV Rheinland and ITRI called BATSO 01
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BATSO Test a worldwide solution! - Battery types used in the European Pedelec market - Transport rules by the United Nations are binding law! - 8 key factors for battery selection - Potential danger of batteries - Safety first! - How to know if a battery is safe! - BATSO Tests and their history
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The main factors for the market success: -Safe and long life products BATSO, GS, ExtraEnergy Tests,... - Easy usage and reliable infrastructure EnergyBus charge and battery swapping with intuitive handling - Affordability and pay by usage options Pay buy use of the battery - Fun and prestigious products A Pedelec for all applications:
A pedelec does not need to look like a bike - The Netherlands are always a innovative corner for bicycle trends...
Thank you for your time! Please visit as well: www.ExtraEnergy.org www.BATSO.org www.EnergyBus.org www.LEVConference.org www.GoPedelec.eu Hannes Neupert ExtraEnergy e.V. Koskauer Str 100 07922 Tanna/Th端ringen info@ExtraEnergy.org Tel: 036646-27094