FIGURES REFLECTING THE MOST IMPORTANT STUDY ASSUMPTIONS AND RESULTS

1. HISTORICAL AND ASSUMED FUTURE YEARLY ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FOR BELGIUM

2. THE UPTAKE OF EVS AND HEAT PUMPS: BOTH EARLIER AND FASTER

Amount of electric passenger cars (EV+PEVH) (thousands) Equivalent amount of hydronic heat pumps (thousands)

Electrification combined with the accelerated expansion of low-carbon electrons will be the main lever for decarbonising society over the next 10 to 20 years. The former’s implementation is gaining momentum in three key sectors - mobility, heating and industry - which is reflected by the assumed increase in electrical demand for Belgium over the next decade.

This evolution is not limited to Belgium alone: a similar increase in electrical demand is foreseen in its neighbouring countries; see frame below.

▶ More information can be found in Section 3.3 of this study

In addition to passenger cars, e-trucks, busses and vans are also accounted for (was not the case in AdeqFlex’21)

Recent sales (beginning of 2023) confirm the uptake and go beyond the value assumed for 2023 if extrapolated for the rest of the year.

+50% sales between 2021 and 2022 +80% sales expected in 2023

Since the publication of our previous study, the Belgian federal and regional authorities have set new targets for electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps (HPs). The penetration of such assets is anticipated to increase roughly 2 years and 10 years earlier than predicted for EVs and HPs respectively, which will have a significant impact on national consumption patterns, especially if their consumption is not managed effectively.

In addition to hydronic HP, air-to-air HP sales and penetration has increased but they have a lower contribution to heating demand. Recent sales (beginning of 2023) confirm the uptake and go beyond the value assumed for 2023 if extrapolated for the rest of the year.

+ 60% sales between 2021 and 2022

+ 90% sales expected in 2023

In the mobility sector, fiscal policies concerning company cars in Belgium are expected to have a major influence on promoting the widespread adoption of EVs in the coming years. Moreover, the electrification of transport will extend beyond personal cars and encompasses a wide range of vehicles, including light-duty vehicles (vans), heavy-duty vehicles (trucks) and buses.

▶ More information can be found in Sections 3.3.3 and 3.3.4 of this study