I N S T I T U T E F O R E C O N O M I C S & P E AC E
2010 FAC T S H E E T
2010 Global Peace Index results The results of the Global Peace Index for 2010 suggest that the world has become slightly less peaceful in the past year. The Index, which gauges ongoing domestic and international conflict, safety and security in society and militarisation in 149 countries, registered overall increases in several indicators, including the likelihood of violent demonstrations and perceptions of criminality. Top 10 countries (Most peaceful) Rank
Country
Score
1
New Zealand
1.188
2
Iceland
1.212
3
Japan
1.247
4
Austria
1.290
5
Norway
1.322
6
Ireland
1.337
7
Denmark
1.341
7
Luxembourg
1.341
9
Finland
1.352
10
Sweden
1.354
Bottom 10 countries (Least peaceful) Rank
Countries with the greatest change in Global Peace Index scores, 2009-101 Country
Score, Change in score,
Rank, Change in Rank,
2010
2009-10
2010
2009-10
2.444 2.389 1.495 2.639 2.270
-0.107 -0.088 -0.080 -0.078 -0.060
127 123 20 134 114
+6 +6 +7 +3 +7
Top 5 fallers Cyprus 2.013 Russia 3.013 Philippines 2.574 Georgia 2.970 Syria 2.274
0.276 0.264 0.247 0.234 0.225
76 143 130 142 115
-25 -2 -10 -3 -18
Top 5 risers Ethiopia Mauritania Hungary Lebanon Haiti
Main findings One of the more remarkable findings from the 2010 Global Peace Index is that societies that are highly peaceful also perform exceptionally well in many other ways. The most peaceful societies share the following social structures and attitudes: • Well functioning government • Sound business environment • Respectful of human rights and tolerance • Good relations with neighbouring states • High levels of freedom of information • Acceptance of others • High participation rates in primary and secondary education • Low levels of corruption • Equitable sharing of resources.
Country
Score
149
Iraq
3.406
148
Somalia
3.390
147
Afghanistan
3.252
146
Sudan
3.125
Four-year trends 2
145
Pakistan
3.050
144
Israel
3.019
• Overall, the world has become slightly less peaceful since 2007, with 62% of countries recording decreases in levels of peacefulness
143
Russia
3.013
142
Georgia
2.970
141
Chad
2.964
140
DRC
2.925
1. Changes in rank are based on a comparison with the 144 countries in the 2009 GPI
• Driving the decline are negative changes in the indicators measuring: military capability/sophistication, relations with neighbouring countries, number of deaths from organised conflict, number of homicides and duration of internal/external conflicts fought
2. Four year tends have been analysed on the 120 countries and 20 indicators which have been constant since 2007.
• Indicators that have recorded an improvement over the 4-years include military expenditure as a percentage of GDP and ease of access to weapons of minor destruction
Changes in GPI scores*: 2007 vs 2010, by region Region
Change in peacefulness
% change on 2007
Asia-Pacific
3.48%
• Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East & North Africa are the only two regions that have become more peaceful on average since 2007
Central & Eastern Europe
3.97%
Latin America
3.02%
Middle East & North Africa
-0.21%
• South Asia experienced the biggest decline in peacefulness, due to the increase in the number of conflicts fought, the deaths resulting from these conflicts as well as deteriorating respect for human rights
North America
4.27%
Sub-Saharan Africa
-0.34%
Western Europe
4.13%
• All major economic groupings analysed on average recorded a decline in peacefulness. Notably, the EU high-debt countries of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain deteriorated the most, though they were closely followed by the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Region
Change in peacefulness
% change on 2007
Central America
3.87%
South Asia
6.27%
Changes in GPI scores*: 2007 vs 2010, by economic grouping
GPI indicator movements: 2007 vs 2010 Change in peacefulness
Changes in GPI scores*: 2007 vs 2010, by sub-region
Change in peacefulness
% change on 2007
% change on 2007
Region
Level of distrust in other citizens
0.72%
ASEAN
3.84%
Number of internal security officers and police 100,000 people
0.58%
BRIC
5.05%
Number of homicides per 100,000 people
EU high-debt countries
5.15%
5.13%
G20
3.71%
Number of jailed population per 100,000 people
2.87%
OECD3
4.78%
Ease of access to weapons of minor destruction
-1.54%
Level of organised conflict (internal)
1.75%
The monetary value of peace
Likelihood of violent demonstrations
1.57%
Level of violent crime
0.33%
Political instability
1.14%
• For the period 2006 – 2009, the total economic impact of the cessation of violence could have been US$28.2 trillion.3 This consists of:
Respect for human rights
-0.16%
Volume of imports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people
1.04%
– US$18.5 trillion derived from the dynamic peace dividend
Potential for terrorist acts
-0.20%
Number of deaths from organised conflict (internal)
5.16%
Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP
• A 25% reduction in global violence would have yielded an annual US$1.85 trillion in additional or redirected economic activities
-6.44%
Number of armed services personnel per 100,000 people
0.72%
Volume of exports of major conventional weapons per 100,000 people
4.24%
Military capability/sophistication
2.56%
Relations with neighbouring countries
2.76%
Number of external and internal conflicts fought
15.57%
Indicator
Estimated number of deaths from organised conflict (external)
•
*A higher score denotes higher levels of violence
– US$9.7 trillion derived from the static economic effect of peace
• As the world’s largest economy, the United States’ potential dynamic peace dividend for 2009 was in excess of US$1 trillion, or approximately 7% of actual US GDP • Countries with high per capita income, large GDPs and lower levels of peacefulness have the largest possible gains in absolute terms. This is highly relevant for multi-national corporations who have an interest in tapping into the peace dividend.
0.00%
3. Conservative estimate in foreign-exchange based nominal terms by the Institute for Economics and Peace and Economists for Peace & Security (EPS).