August 2013 - Resilience

RESILIENCE The magazine of the Emergency Planning Society

The Emergency Planning Society The Organisation for Resilience Professionals www.the-eps.org

August 2013

RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

Helen Hinds Chair

OVER the last few weeks I’ve been thinking quite a lot about personal resilience while I’ve been dealing with some family sickness.

It’s at times like this I realise how helpful the training and experience I have gained in my professional life can be in my personal life.

Knowing what questions to ask, being able to express yourself clearly when under pressure and not being daunted by red tape or technical language are so important when trying to get information out of ‘the system’.

It also helped me appreciate anew the important role we all have in making sure plans are in place to get information out to individuals affected by incidents.

However, any event of this nature is tiring and I’m looking forward to having a break over the summer!

I hope that if you haven’t yet enjoyed a holiday this summer that you get the opportunity to take a break and recharge your batteries over the next couple of months and can come back and be ready to attend the EPS conference in September!

There is more information about this year’s conference on pages 14 - 19.

But in-keeping with the theme of Past, Present and Future we will be looking at the changes in our profession over the past 20 years, a couple of recent case studies and risks we maybe facing in the future.

The majority of the programme will be UK focused, however, we also have an exciting presentation from the New York City Fire Department on Hurricane Sandy and I hope to see lots of you there, and at our fifth national Resilience Awards ceremony the evening before.

You can find all the information for this year’s awards, including the new Voluntary Sector Award, at www.the-eps.org/awards Spaces are limited so if you haven’t yet booked a place please do so quickly to avoid disappointment!

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Sam Mendez Head of Content

I’D LIKE to start my column this month by wishing our colleague in the Head Office, Linda Norman, all the very best for the future. Following the restructuring of Head Office, Linda took voluntary redundancy at the start of July after nine years with the EPS. Linda is going to focus on her evening fitness classes and enjoy time with her family.

The annual EPS conference is just weeks away and we hope to see many members at the conference and awards in support of the Society. This issue includes details on the AGM, Resilience Awards, Conference and the Emergency Services Show - all taking place over September 25 and 26 in Birmingham.

You will find all the details you need, including a draft programme, rates and times on pages 14-19.

The Awards microsite is also live and contains all the information about our national Resilience Awards, which are now in their fifth year.

Log on to: www.the-eps.org/awards for all the info.

As usual we have some great articles submitted by both members and non-members of the EPS for this month’s issue of Resilience. The deadline for the November issue is October 14, please send your articles and photos to me on the e-mail address below.

Editorial Team Samantha Mendez Head of Content media@the-eps.org 07580 104 182

Jeffrey Goatcher Research Digest Jeffrey.goatcher@ ntu.ac.uk

Vivienne Brunsden Research Methods Vivienne.brunsden@ ntu.ac.uk

Becky Martin Student Section Becky.Martin@soton. ac.uk

Your branches and their chairs

In this issue NEAR EARTH OBJECTS 6 Debbie Lewis talks about hazardous comets and meteors in this interesting article

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EPS CONFERENCE

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RESILIENCE AWARDS 17

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1 14

7 13 8

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1. East Midlands Andy McCombe

8. Southern Louise Cadle louise@ccaconsultants.eu

2. Scottish Dougie Potter dougie.potter@fife.gov.uk

9. South Eastern

3. Northern Ireland Gerry Killen gerry.killen@setrust.hscni.net

10. Republic of Ireland David Garrett david.garrett@ise.ie

4. South Western Geoff Mackett gmackett@somerset.gov.uk

11. North Western Mark Taylor

5. Yorkshire & The Humber Paul Brown paul.brown@yas.nhs.uk

12. Northern Kate Cochrane kate.cochrane@newcastle.gov.uk

6. West Midlands Willam Read

13. London Adam Bland

7. Welsh Ian Woodland

14. Eastern Chris Sharwood-Smith cssglobal@btinternet.com

ab.mccombe@btopenworld.com

william.read@eaststaffsbc.gov.uk

ian.m.woodland@rctcbc.gov.uk

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A complete guide to this year’s Resilience Conference, AGM and the Resilience Awards

Paul Collard paul.collard@sussex.pnn.police.uk

mark.taylor@lancashire.gov.uk

adambland@gmx.com

Take a look at the awards on offer this year including the new Voluntary Sector Award

RESEARCH DIGEST

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STUDENT SECTION

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Summaries, by Nottingham Trent Unversity students, of recent emergency and disaster related research

Becky Martin reviews a recent conference and says the future is resilient!

The Emergency Planning Society The Media Centre Culverhouse Cross Cardiff CF5 6XJ Tel: 0845 600 9587 Fax: 029 2059 0396 www.the-eps.org

Front page image courtesy of: Phil Greig

RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

To order your copy with a special discount please contact Laura on 0845 600 9587

The Emergency Planning Society, in partnership with the Cabinet Office and the Business Continuity Institute, has worked to produce Business Continuity for Dummies, an essential survival guide for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs).The guide acknowledges that smaller businesses just do not have the money, time and resources to prepare for disruptions, yet the cost of dealing with them when they do arise can be significant. It provides simple, and for the most part inexpensive, how-to measures to deal with difficulties ranging from being let down by one of your key suppliers all the way through to major disruptions caused by challenges such as flooding, severe weather and a pandemic influenza outbreak. The guide came out of the Emergency Planning Society’s Business Continuity Professional Working Group (PWG) as part of the EPS’ contribution to the profession. All their hard work was done voluntarily and the book – which is available to buy through the EPS Head Office – is the result of their efforts.

The guide outlines simple, practical, and low cost steps that companies can take to make sure they stand up to disruptions.

YOUR PWGS AND THEIR CHAIRS

THE EPS has eight Professional Working Groups - CBRN, COMAH & Pipelines, Crowd & Event Safety, Environmental Risk, Health, Human Aspects, Oil Pollution and Business Continuity. The purpose of the PWGs is to harness the Society’s expertise and explore current and emerging resilience planning issues in specific areas of interest. Want to apply to join a group? Please contact the relevant Chair:

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Business Continuity Tom Croall tcroall@gmail.com

Environmental Risk Jeff Stacey Jeff.stacey@pla.co.uk

CBRN Chris Abbott

Health Richard Rackham

eps.cbrn.pwg@hotmail.co.uk

richard.rackham@nhsbt.nhs.uk

COMAH & Pipelines Norman Powell

Human Aspects

norman.powell@cheshire.gov.uk

mick.free@ mickfreeemergencyplanning.co.uk

Crowd & Event Safety Geoffrey Mackett geoffreym31@hotmail.com

Oil Pollution Martin Rawling mrawling@cornwall.gov.uk

Mick Free

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WELSH BRANCH SPRING EVENT THIS was the second consecutive Spring Event since the re-launch of the event in 2012 and the branch was pleased to welcome EPS members from other branches, as well as nonmembers, to Aberystwyth.

The aim of the Spring Event is for members to come together, share knowledge on current subjects and network with other emergency planning professionals.

The Spring Event also incorporated the branch AGM. The programme was focused on two key topics that the branch membership had expressed an interest in: flooding and social media.

Day one was all about flooding, with interesting and thought-provoking presentations from colleagues across Wales. Malcolm Weatherall, Met Office, kicked off proceedings with an overview of the 2012 weather that influenced a number of flooding events in Wales. Then, Dai Lewis, of Ceredigion Council, Andy Irving, Natural Resources Wales, and Don Norris, Flintshire and Denbighshire Councils, presented on the specific flood events they managed in Ceredigion and Denbighshire in 2012. Keith Preston, of Community Resilience, rounded off the afternoon with some reflections on his role with Business in the Community

and Business Emergency Recovery Group in St Asaph Floods. Attendees enjoyed a dinner on the evening of day one; it provided an opportunity to network and catch-up. The quiz, compiled by two executive members, was highly entertaining and established a relaxed and convivial atmosphere.

Day two started with a return performance from leadership expert Dr Susie Mitchell, who provided delegates with some thoughts on team leadership at times of crisis. The day then moved onto social media and delegates received some excellent presentations on this very topical subject.

Ben Proctor, social media consultant from Likeaword, talked about the important aspects of social media use

for emergency response.

Barry Michael Jones, formerly of BBC Wales, helped delegates to understand how to work with the media during an emergency, before Meilir Pritchard, North Wales Police, shared his organisation’s experiences of using social media to communicate with the public. Finally, EPS Director of Branches, Bill Whitlock, gave an update to the members on the Time for Change Review, which was greatly appreciated.

The event was very kindly sponsored by: Aquobex, Community Resilience, RAB, WaterCo. The branch is already planning the Spring Event 2014, EPS members and nonmembers alike will again be welcome!

EPS MEMBERS’ UPGRADES

Associate to Member Dave Nelson Kevin Robotham Pater Davidson Philip Povey Douglas Ledingham Vince Jenner

South Eastern East Midlands London South Western Scottish Yorkshire & the Humber

Member to Fellow Mark Mooney Anthony Kimber Stephen Glassey Huw Williams Christine Manby Denis Fischbacher-Smith

London South Eastern International Welsh Yorkshire & the Humber Scottish

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

NEAR-EARTH OBJECTS: HAZARDOUS COMETS, METEORS AND ASTEROIDS PART I

By Debbie Lewis London branch RECENT events such as the Chelyabinsk, Siberia meteor strike, in addition to the close approaches of asteroids 2012 DA14 and 1998 QE2, serve only too well to indicate that we live in an active asteroid environment.

Additionally, over the last six years, there have been three Near-Earth Object (NEO) impact events which illustrate the frequency of the hazard posed by small objects measuring less than 10 metres in diameter. The first was the Carancas meteorite fall which took place on September 15, 2007.

A stony meteoroid between one and two metres in diameter struck the Earth’s surface and formed a crater at the impact site on the Altiplano on the Peru-Bolivian border. The second event, on October 7, 2008, was Asteroid 2008 TC3. This asteroid, approximately five metres in diameter, was identified only 19 hours prior to impact. Its trajectory was tracked by the Minor Planets Centre in Boston, Massachusetts, which predicted the location of the impact site would be in the remote area of the Nubian Desert. This incident served to awaken the scientific community who never expected to witness an impact event within their lifetimes. Of more concern however, is that the object was too small and too dark to be detected until its orbit

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Tanguska, 1908, detonated in the atmosphere creating an airburst that wiped out 2000 km2 of forestry

became very close to Earth’s orbit. Similarly, the third event which took place a year later, on October 8, 2009, involved an asteroid between five and 10 metres in diameter, on the island of Sulewesi, Indonesia.

Less recent than these three however, another event worthy of mention is Tunguska, which took place on June 30, 1908. An area of 2000 km2, which is approximately the same size as the area contained

within the M25 motorway, was compacted by an object between 60 and 70m in diameter. The object did not form a crater, instead it detonated in the atmosphere creating an airburst, and the resultant blast wave set fire to the forest and reduced the trees to ashes.

Although these recent events were largely benign in terms of loss of human life, had any of these impact sites been a large city, such as London or New York, the

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short warning time provided would have been insufficient to allow the authorities to prepare the population and execute, orderly, co-ordinated evacuation plans.

Even though the frequency of impacts from these smaller objects is under the threshold to cause global catastrophe and the cumulative total is significantly less than the larger ones, it is considered the prevailing risk is from a large NEO crashing into the ocean causing tsunamis.

As a result it would appear the hazard posed from NEOs is two-fold in nature.

Firstly from objects that are larger than 1km in diameter and secondly from smaller objects such as asteroids, meteors and comets ranging from 30-50m to 0.5-1km in diameter. Both scientists and astronomers recognise that although impacts from objects 1km or larger in diameter can cause serious global devastation of lifethreatening proportions, collisions from smaller objects are also destructive. However, it is these smaller objects, which are far more numerous, that present the most frequent hazard to society. The study of the NEO impact hazard was established as a serious science in 1978 by Walter and Luis Alvarez, Eugene Shoemaker and David Levy.

They first declared craters on the Earth’s surface were caused by impacts from asteroids and comets striking the planet. Scientists today have been able to ascertain why Earth is on a collision course with NEOs on ovalshaped orbits, such as comets and asteroids whose orbits pass near Earth’s orbit.

The majority of asteroids are located in a steady trajectory, in the main asteroid belt

Tanguska explosion, 1908. Some 2000 km2 of trees were reduced to ashes by the resultant blast wave from the airbusrt

between Mars and Jupiter.

However, some are affected by the gravitational pull of Jupiter which can propel them into Earth’s orbit.

The orbit of an asteroid or comet can be disturbed by a number of factors. A very distant reservoir of comets exists within the Oort Cloud in the Outer Solar System.

Gravitations from passing stars, planetary alignment and the Yarkovsky effect – the action of the Sun hitting and warming the surface of the asteroid, as the asteroid rotates, the hot surface radiates the heat out in a different direction into space – can, over a period of many years, pull the comet into the inner solar system.

The combination of these events means asteroids and comets do not remain on their original orbits and instead can potentially be propelled into the inner solar system. This is a continuous process, and as such, forms part of the uncertainty which exists in attempting to track these bodies. Current NEO surveys have identified more

than 80% of objects more than 1km in diameter within the near-Earth environment, however no hazardous objects have, as yet, been detected. Conversely the smaller objects are more difficult to detect using modern telescopes, as they are dark bodies and due to their size do not reflect much, if any light, from the sun. Even if technological improvements are made to telescopes it will take at least 15 years to complete the process of identifying and cataloguing all of these objects. Proposed improved telescopes will enable the observation and identification of more than 500,000 NEOs. Of these, several dozen will present a significant risk of striking Earth which will either cause local or regional devastation. This devastation can be further exacerbated depending on the presence of sensitive infrastructure installations, such as nuclear power stations, hydro-electric dams and chemical plants.

This combination of hazards creates significant scientific,

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

The Chelyabinsk meteor. Pic Credit: buzzfeed.com

political, societal, economic and environmental implications. Currently, the strategy for NEO risk management is yet to be debated and decided. It is recognised that, as it could take considerably longer than 10 years to develop an international response to enable detection and mitigation techniques to deflect the asteroid away from Earth’s orbit, it is imperative that policies are determined well in advance of an object being discovered. Furthermore, approximately 25,000 smaller asteroids, with diameters of less than 150m have yet to be detected. As has been evidenced from the Tunguska event in 1908, and the Chelyabinsk event on February 15, 2013, the wellbeing of humanity can be endangered from small asteroids, 50m or less in diameter, if the impact site is over a densely populated city. Consequently, in order to respond effectively to the hazard posed by NEOs, international agreements and arrangements need to be established and in place, clearly in advance of an impact event. The role of

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the United Nations (UN) is considered to be instrumental in determining whether action should be taken to prevent an impact. The UN General Assembly (UNGA) is composed of 192 Member States. Six permanent committees assist the UNGA in managing work in relation to global issues such as space matters.

The Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) is responsible for outer space policy development on behalf of the UN Member States. The Office of Outer Space Affairs (OOSA) provides the secretariat function to COPUOS and carries out policies as part of the UN Secretariat. In 2001, COPUOS established the Action Team on Near-Earth Objects (Action Team 14) following a recommendation from UNISPACE III. In 2007 the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the COPUOS established the working group on NEOs. Its aim is to propose international procedures in relation to the NEO hazard for consideration by COPUOS. The Panel on Asteroid Threat

Mitigation was convened by the Association of Space Explorers in 2007 and 2008.

Its report entitled Asteroid Threats: A Call for a Global Response, was submitted to the working group for consideration. However, to date, a formal UN response to a potential crisis has yet to be developed. Given the inevitability of an impact event, its societal and political implications, and that the aim of NEO surveys is to enable appropriate action to be taken, the response to the hazard posed from future NEO impact events clearly requires not only Government policy for civil protection but also decisive technical inputs from the scientific and engineering community for planetary defence.

Preventing a collision with Earth by altering the orbit of an asteroid is considered the most advantageous option.

In relation to the technical development required for “mitigation” methods to effect the orbital change of an asteroid, three planetary defence mechanisms for effective mitigation have been identified. The first is

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the gravity tractor, whereby a spacecraft generates gravitational attraction between itself and the asteroid.

This approach provides a continuous fixed power onto the surface of the asteroid which enables the acceleration of the asteroid along its orbit, albeit on a small scale. This method prevents the asteroid and Earth from arriving at the same point in space at the same time by moving the asteroid so that it arrives before Earth.

The second option for mitigation is the kinetic impact method. This comprises of either a spacecraft colliding with an asteroid, or an asteroid colliding with the spacecraft, in order to change the velocity and the orbit to miss a collision with Earth. On the basis of the current technological capabilities available, this option is deemed to be effective in altering the path of an asteroid less than 500 metres in diameter.

The kinetic impact method could also be effective against asteroids up to 1km in diameter however further scientific research is required in order to invoke this approach. The third option is the nuclear detonation method which is considered to be effective either in response to an asteroid over 500metres in diameter with a warning time of less than a decade, or, for an asteroid over 1km in diameter with 30 to 40 years advance warning.

Here, two scenario solutions have been identified. The first is the stand-off burst and the second is the small surface burst. In the nuclear stand-off scenario, the explosive energy from a nuclear weapon is used to heat the surface layer of the asteroid. When this surface

Above pic: The main asteroid belt

layer moves away from the asteroid it creates a ‘back reaction’ which then causes a change to the orbit of the asteroid, thus avoiding a collision with Earth. The small surface burst uses a nuclear explosion either at or near the surface of the asteroid.

However, the preferred option is the stand-off burst.

Further consideration needs to be given to these methods for mitigation in relation to their reliability and robustness. Successful assurance is also critical in that the hazard is not increased as a result of the mitigation attempt. This is of particular importance where a mission is undertaken to alter the orbit of a NEO prior to the possibility of impact.

Such an orbit change could direct the asteroid onto an impact trajectory with Earth.

In order to obtain assurance

for success, a characterisation mission needs to be conducted, if sufficient time is available. Effective mitigation, deflection and tracking methods can only be determined and tested when the composition and formation of the asteroid is fully understood. Due to the uncertainty, instead of using one spacecraft to deploy the mitigation technique, several spacecraft could be used, thus guaranteeing a more successful mitigation approach which would also enable characterisation to be conducted. The nuclear option could then be reserved as a fall back method.

However, consideration does need to be given to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty which currently forbids the launching of nuclear weapons into space. In reality, mitigation of the risk posed

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is probably going to involve the adoption of more than one technique, mainly as a measure of confidence.

Whichever method for mitigation is used it is considered that the strategy for civil protection will always form part of the response, either as the preferred option or as a contingency.

However, currently there are no civil protection arrangements in place to respond to the hazards posed from a NEO impact event. As Cheylabinsk clearly demonstrated earlier this year, it is not ‘if’ and NEO strikes, it is ‘when’.

The question we should be asking ourselves as emergency planners is: ‘Are we ready to deal with a future impact event?’

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In Part II, Debbie will be discussing an exercise she has designed as well as her recent trip to the Barringer meteor crater

References: Asteroids: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly, 2010. [TV programme] BBC, BBC2, 3 November 2010 21.00.

Atkinson, H., Tickell, C., and Williams, D. (2000) Report of the Task Force on Potentially Hazardous Near Earth Objects.

London: British National Space Centre; available online at http://www.nearearthobject. co.uk; accessed 28 March 2009.

Camacho, S., Jones, T., Schweickart, R., Weeden, R., and Williamson, R.A. (2010) “Responding to the threat of potentially- hazardous near Earth objects,‟ In 2010 Functions and Characteristics of NEO Information, Analysis and Warning Network (IAWN) Workshop. January 18-20; Mexico City: Mexico Chapman, C.R., Durda, D. D., and Gold, R.E. (2001) The Comet/Asteroid Impact Hazard: A Systems Approach;

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available online at http://www. internationalspace.com/pdf/; date accessed 18 June 2010 Morrison, D., Harris, A.W., Sommer, G., Chapman, C.R., and Carusi, A. (2002) „Dealing with the impact hazard,‟ In Bottke Junior, W.F., Cellino, A., Paolicchi, P., and Binzel, R.P. (Eds) (2002) Asteroids III. Tucson: The University of Arizona Press 739-759 Nemchinov, I., Suvalov, V., and Svetsov, V. (2008) “Main factors of hazards due to comets and asteroids,‟ In Adushkin, V., Nemchinov, I. (Eds) (2008) Catastophic Events Caused by Cosmic Object, The Netherlands: Springer National Academy of Sciences (2010) Defending Planet Earth: Near-Earth Object Surveys and Hazard Mitigation Strategies: Final Report. Washington: The National Academies Press; available online at www.nap. edu/catalog/12842.html; date accessed 28 June 2010 Schweickart, R.L., Jones, T.D., von der Dunk, F., CamachoLara, S. (2008) Asteroid Threats: A Call For a Global Response; available online at http://www.space-explorers. org/committees/NEO/docs/ ATACGR.pdf; date accessed 8 October 2010 Secure World Foundation (2010) Space Sustainability, A Practical Guide. Washington: Secure Word Foundation; available online at www.

SecureWorldFoundation; accessed 30 September 2010 United Nations General Assembly (2009) Interim report of the Action Team on NearEarth Objects 2009-2010; available online at: http://www. oosa.unvienna.org/oosa/search. html?q=interim+report+of+ the+action+team+on+nearearth+objects+2009-2010; date accessed 23 February 2011 Yates, K. (2010) Private interview with author, 30

November Zimmer, A., Kroll, F., Messerschmid, E. (2010) „Going Beyond: Mission and System Analysis of Human Exploration Missions to Near-Earth Objects‟; in Going Beyond the Earth-Moon System: Human Missions to Mars, Libration Points, and NEO, 61st International Astronautical Congress, Prague: 1 October.

Debbie Lewis is the Director for Resilience Preparedness at Axiom (Alderney) Ltd. She spent 12 months as one of the consultant tutors responsible for developing the course materials and delivering the Diploma in Health Emergency Planning Programme for Loughborough University.

Prior to establishing Axiom (Alderney) Ltd, Debbie also formed part of the team of associate lecturers delivering the Diploma in Health Emergency Planning on behalf of the UK Government’s EPC and the Health Protection Agency. Debbie gained an MSc in Risk, Crisis and Disaster Management at the University of Leicester, where her specialist area of study was the impact, in risk management terms, of Near-Earth Objects.

She is a Fellow of the Emergency Planning Society. Debbie has worked in a number of EP roles for British Airways (at Heathrow Airport) and for various elements of the National Health Service (NHS) namely the Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust in Reading, the Berkshire Primary Care Trusts and South Central Strategic Health Authority based in Newbury.

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UNEXPECTED EVENTS

Aftermath of the Boston bombings Pic Credit: Associated Press

In the first of a two-part analysis of the current threat from terrorism and its implications for societal resilience DR DAVE SLOGGETT looks at recent events and emerging trends on the international security landscape.

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HE TWIN bombings at the Boston marathon came out of the blue.

One of the eye witnesses saw one of the bombers place the bag containing the bomb next to him and was not in the slightest bit perturbed when the person who left the bag walked off. It had been so many years since the horrific scene of September 11.

Surely the person placing the bag was simply reserving a place in order to return and applaud a friend or family member across the line.

There could be no malice in someone placing a bag by the side of the Boston marathon.

Sadly that assessment proved to be naïve. It also smacks a little of complacency.

Noises emerging from Washington had certainly started to suggest Al Qaeda was finished.

In Boston their new business model was shown for the first time. This was an organisation that was still able to motivate people to conduct attacks in the United States.

Home grown terrorism – so often seen in the United States as the ‘British disease’ – had shown what it was capable of in America.

Initial assessments of the attack were confused.

Indicators from the scene provided differing clues as to who was behind the attack.

It had taken place on Patriots Day. Coincidentally it was also Tax Day. The date that Americans are required to file their tax returns for the year.

These are two dates that are both celebrated and viewed with distain by those whose views tend towards the right of the political spectrum.

Given the rapid rise of

extreme right wing groups in America after the election of President Obama it was plausible that the attack had been carried out by one of these. fter all the Oklahoma attack on April 19, 1995 had been carried out

by Timothy McVeigh. He was an example of someone who held such views. Looking at the live feeds broadcast on the media it was not difficult to work out quite quickly that the two bombs were not made of a high grade explosive such as Semtex.

The smoke billowing above the two locations provided an obvious clue that gunpowder had been used in the devices.

The fact the detonations occurred 12 seconds apart provide the only piece of immediately available evidence that suggested the

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attack may have had Islamic extremist overtones. The American right wing has not used a tactic of near-simultaneous bombings in the past.

Within two hours President Obama was on television counselling caution as to the attribution of the attack.

In the light of what happened in Norway when many commentators rushed into media studios to opine that the attack had been carried out

by Islamic extremists this was a sensible move.

The President’s advisors may also have remembered what happened in Madrid in 2004 when the Spanish Government claimed ETA had been responsible for the attacks on Atocha railway stations and its environs on March 11, 2004. n that attack 191 people died and nearly 2,000 were injured. Days later the incumbent Spanish government lost the general election. Their incorrect attribution of the attack to ETA and not to Islamic extremists was seen to have been a factor in the way people voted. For those with knowledge of ETA’s previous tactics the notion that they had suddenly decided to place 14 bombs on railway trains at rush hour which were aimed at creating mass casualties was an incredulous suggestion. ETA had no track record whatsoever of conducting attacks of that nature.

In Boston the situation remained confused for some time. Information derived from eyewitnesses quickly enabled investigators to pin-point two individuals walking through the area carrying back-packs.

The release of the imagery of the two men swiftly brought results; although their

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ethnicity still did not provide a conclusive indication of the likely source of the attack. he two accused were quickly cornered. One died in a gun fight and later the second was arrested. The two men alleged to have undertaken the attack clearly were motivated by Islamic extremist views.

The Boston attack provides an excellent example of the kind of issues that those trying to piece together who was involved in an attack and their motivations.

That same difficulty also applies to preventing the attack in the first place.

The savage attack on Drummer Lee Rigby in broad daylight on the streets of London has illustrated the difficulties the authorities face in disrupting such attacks.

From the evidence that has emerged in the media the alleged perpetrators were clearly on the radar horizon of the security services.

How then, the media have repeatedly asked, could they have been allowed to prepare and plot such a brutal attack?

The United Kingdom’s counter terrorism strategy is called Contest; it is based on four pillars; one of these seeks to prevent attacks. edia coverage of this element of the strategy tends to focus on the process of radicalisation and how it could be disrupted.

There is, however, one part of the prevent element that is unspoken. Stopping attacks by extremists, no matter what the source of their ideological motivation, is also important as it helps avoid fragile ethnic fault lines in society being tested.

The immediate condemnation of the attack by a wide range of faith groups was important

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in trying to maintain what can be a fragile sense of community harmony.

In austere times this can be exacerbated as the riots in Stockholm in May 2013 illustrated. Even in the most pluralistic of societies ethnic fault lines can erupt into violence. Where grievances are allowed to fester unchallenged the potential for people to turn to extreme measures to express the depth of that feeling is very real. Events in Boston and London provide an indication of what lies below the surface. Other recent events have confirmed a worrying trend. Several high profile court cases have recently come to a conclusion in the United Kingdom. he guilty pleas and verdicts provide yet more evidence of a growing problem.

In 2012 arrests of those accused of being involved in terrorism increased over previous years. While there may have been a one-off Olympic Games effect on the figures the subsequent convictions attest to the serious nature of the plots that had been uncovered.

The threat faced in the United Kingdom is also not onedimensional.

Dissident Irish republican groups increasingly pose a threat as to members of the extreme right wing. This is not just confined to the United Kingdom.

In their assessment of 2012 EUROPOL noted ‘the terrorism threat in Europe remains strong and varied as illustrated by an increased number of attacks’.

Their annual report noted that 17 people had died in Europe in 2012 as a result of terrorist activity. In total EUROPOL reported 219 ter-

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rorist-related attacks in seven countries of the European Union. This represents a 26% increase in the number of events recorded in 2011. total of 537 people were arrested for terrorismrelated offences in 2012. This was an increase of 53 on the previous year.

Outside the United Kingdom the main countries where disruptive arrests took place where France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Eire.

By contrast EUROPOL reported that attacks by left-wing groups and anarchists fell from 37 in 2011 to 18 in 2012.

The attack at Burgas airport in Bulgaria where seven people died was particularly worrying as this is thought to have been linked to the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

They are known to have close ties with Iran.

It would be worrying if they, as well as Al Qaeda-related affiliates, now started to see the international stage as a place where they feel they can operate. ntil now Hezbollah has focused its military activities in the Middle East. Recently it has found itself being drawn ever more deeply into the on-going uprising in Syria.

If Hezbollah has taken a decision to act as a proxy for Iran and venture out into Western Europe and possibly America that would inevitably have serious ramifications.

In France, in what looks remarkably similar to the attack on the British Army serviceman, a member of the French Army was stabbed in the neck in Paris.

Swift action by the Canadian authorities within days of the Boston attack appears to have also prevented a terrorist attack on the railway

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system that operates over the border with the United States. Worrying trends are also emerging from the civil unrest in Syria. It would seem the on-going conflict in Syria is the major attraction for aspiring Islamist extremists in Western Europe.

The security authorities in Germany and the United Kingdom have both expressed concerns about the number of their nationals who appear to have travelled to Syria. Increased terroristrelated activity along the North African coastline is also of concern.

The Mediterranean Sea has long been known as a pathway for drugs and economic migrants to try and cross from Africa into Europe.

As Al Qaeda affiliated groups establish a footprint in Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Libya the threat must increase. Links between Al Qaeda affiliates operating in Niger, Mali and Mauritania also show the problem in Africa is deepening. n Nigeria despite government efforts at a clamp down the Islamic extremist group Boko Haram still undertakes violent attacks against Christian communities.

This all adds up to a fairly bleak picture. One thing the intelligence community look at in some detail is trends.

In the United States 27 attempts to conduct another attack on American soil had been thwarted in the period from September 11 to the end of 2010. In the next two years a further 25 attempts occurred. By any rate that is an increase in tempo.

EUROPOL figures provide similar salutary reading.

Events in Boston, London and Paris have shown those who

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said it is not a question of ‘if but when’ were accurate in their forecasts.

If the trends are to be believed the situation is about to get worse. or those interested in the subject of resilience the real question is: with such a threat how do we ensure in a period of deep financial crisis that we can keep our people safe and our society from suffering the side effects of ethnic division?

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Author Profile: Dr Dave Sloggett has 40 years of experience in the military and law enforcement sectors working in a variety of roles, specialising in the field of intelligence analysis, human behaviour and irregular warfare.

Dr Sloggett is an authority on terrorism and counterterrorism in its chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and conventional forms lecturing both in the UK and overseas.

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

RESILIENCE: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE EPS CONFERENCE 2013 NEC BIRMINGHAM SEPTEMBER 26 THE past few months alone have put resilience planners in the UK and across the world to the test.

We all witnessed the Boston bombings and the collapse of the clothing factory in Bangladesh. Closer to home we have witnessed the brutal murder of Drummer Lee Rigby and the helicopter crash in Vauxhall.

These events are all too common, but behind the scenes, and on the front line, resilience and emergency planning professionals strive to overcome the challenges thrown at them. They have helped shape the profession, and continue to do so.

Often resilience professionals are accused of getting wrapped up in the process and technicalities, which are important at the end of the day, but it is the people and their professionalism, imagination and ingenuity that make it work.

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Without it we wouldn’t have realsitic training and exercising, we wouldn’t have the workshops and discussions that we have or the networks developed to support us in the work we do.

With that in mind, this year’s EPS conference is encompassing the theme of Resilience: Past, Present and Future. The one-day event, held at the Birmingham NEC, will cover topics such as: the changing nature of resilience theory and how the CCA has influenced the resilience agenda. We have a UK case study from two colleagues based in Northern Ireland about ‘deep impact’ events that leave everybody vulnerable, as well as international case study on Hurricane Sandy by the NYC Fire Department.

We will be looking at the future of resilience, and hosting the big debate should the UK prepare for

risks such as Hurricane Sandy?

This year we have again joined foces with the Emergency Services Show which will be running in conjunction with the EPS Conference, at the NEC on September 25 and 26.

The partnership allows a comprehensive conference and exhibition to take place side-by-side, bringing together resilience and emergency professionals all under one roof.

The Emergency Planning Society’s AGM and fifth national Resilience Awards are taking place on September 25 at the Ramada Solihull Birmingham, and more information on these events can be found on pages 17 and 18.

To book your place at any of these events visit: www.the-eps.org/events

CONFERENCE PROGRAMME 2013

0900 - 0930

Arrival and registration

0930 - 0945

Welcome and opening remarks ‘Through a glass darkly: the changing nature of resilience theory and the implications for practice’

Helen Hinds Chair of EPS Denis Fischbacher–Smith Research Professor in Risk and Resilience University of Glasgow

1030 - 1100

‘How the Civil Contingencies Act has Influenced the Resilience Agenda’

Patrick Cunningham Consultant & Associate Trainer Emergency Planning College

1100 – 1130

BREAK

0945 - 1030

1130 – 1215 UK Case Study: ‘Deep Impact: When Everybody’s Vulnerable’

1215 - 1315

International Case Study: Review of Hurricane Sandy

1315 - 1400

LUNCH

1400 - 1520

Join the debate: The UK should prepare for risks such as Hurricane Sandy!

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Harry Whan Emergency Planning Coordinator, Northern Ireland Environmental Health John Wiley Met Office Adviser (Civil Contingencies) Northern Ireland James J Manahan Jr. Assistant Chief of Operations New York City Fire Department

East Coast Surge & Flood Risk David Kemp Environment Agency South West Tsunami Environment Agency National Risk Assessment Anita Friend, Cabinet Office

There are more important risks we should be looking at! Effective Risk Studies Rod Stafford Vector Command 1525 – 1540 1540 – 1600

The Future of Resilience Closing remarks

TBC Helen Hinds

This is a draft programme and is subject to change. Afternoon refreshments will be available during the debate

RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

DELEGATES - REASONS TO HOW MUCH WILL IT COST? WHO SHOULD ATTEND ATTEND

The Conference programme has been designed to address to on-going challenges faced by resilience professionals every day.

The discussions will address the main issues affecting all resilience professionals, the presentations will look at how resilience has been shaped over the years, and what lies ahead in the future.

The conference is open to all those who work within resilience and emergency planning, and anyone with an interest in the suject area whether or not they are a member of the EPS. If you are a member you will receive a discount on the rates. Non-members can join the Society and not only enjoy discounted rates but also free webinars and Resilience magazine plus lots more.

* Listen and learn from highprofile speakers from leading organisations discussing the topics that matter to you. * An exciting and topical programme inculding case studies from the UK and overseas * Particpate in the debate * Gain up to three CPD points * Networking with your peers from across the country * Free commemorative anniversary badge and delegate bag for attendees * Free copy of the Business Continuity for Dummies guide * Celebrate excellence in resilience at the fifth annual Resilience Awards * Enjoy the Resilience Awards Dinner and entertainment with your peers and colleagues * Visit the dynamic and comprehensive Emergency Services Show exhibition for free.

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The EPS is mindful that we are all facing challenging times and financial constraints within our organisations, so we are offering delegates a price that is simply too good to miss: Members of the EPS can attend the conference for just ÂŁ75+VAT. The rate for nonmembers is ÂŁ125+VAT. Spaces are limited and will be offered on a first come first serve basis. To secure your place book now at: www.the-eps.org/events/ eps-conference-2013---resilience-past-present-andfuture/2013-09-26/309 NB: Please make sure you are logged into the website before booking to ensure you pay the right fee.

If you would like to join the Society and take advantage of this discount, as well as many other member benefits, please join us now at: www. the-eps.org/join-us

RESILIENCE AWARDS 2013 RAMADA SOLIHULL BIRMINGHAM SEPTEMBER 25 CATEGORIES NOMINATE

CEREMONY

Now in their fifth year, the national Resilience Awards attract excellent submissions from across the country; each nomination showcasing the innovation and hard work carried out by resilience and EP professionals. The categories are:

You are invited to wine, dine and indulge in the finest company for this year’s Resilience Awards event which will bring together the emergency resilience industry for an evening of networking and pure ambience.

Taking place at the Courtyard Suite, the drinks reception will begin at 7pm with dinner served at 7.30pm. The Awards will commence at 8.30pm and will be followed by live entertainment from ‘Quill’. Midnight close.

▪▪ ▪▪ ▪▪ ▪▪ ▪▪ ▪▪

Resilience Planner of the Year Resilience Team of the Year Emergency Planning Initiative of the Year Most Innovative Product of the Year Voluntary Sector Award National Capability of the Year

We have replaced the National Policy Award with the new Voluntary Sector Award. Details of this award, and all the others, can be found on the Awards microsite: www.the-eps.org/awards There you will also find the nomination form and the entry guidelines.

Supported by:

All nomination forms should be e-mailed to Samantha Mendez, Media & Communications Officer, on: media@the-eps.org or by post to: Samantha Mendez Media & Communications Officer The Emergency Planning Society Resilience Awards 2013 The Media Centre Culverhouse Cross Cardiff CF5 6XJ The closing date for nominations is 3pm on August 30.

The nominations will be shortlisted and judged by a panel of experts – shortlisted candidates will be informed via e-mail ASAP and the list will be added to the EPS website.

The winners of this year’s awards will be announced at our awards dinner and a full profile will be run in the November issue of Resilience magazine, as well as online.

Costs £35+VAT pp (price includes drinks reception and wine on the tables) Bookings for 5 - 9 people will receive a 10% discount Bookings for 10 + people will receive a 20% discount Students will receive a 10% discount Dress code Lounge suits, black tie optional Book www.the-eps.org/events/ resilience-awards-and-dinner-2013/2013-09-25/313

RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

AGM 2013 VENUE AND TRAVEL Sept 25 AGM AND AWARDS Members of the Emergency Planning Society are invited to join the Board at the Annual General Meeting which is taking place on September 25 at the Ramada Solihull Birmingham, from 3pm to 5pm in the Courtyard Suite.

For those unable to attend in person, the AGM will also be available via webinar.

In order to particpate via webinar you need to book your place on the EPS website: www. the-eps.org/events/ eps-agm-2013-webinar-available/2013-09-25/314 After you have booked you will receive a booking confirmation e-mail and before the webinar you will receive a test link and details of how to log-on to the interactive webinar.

The agenda will be uploaded to the EPS website before the AGM. If you require any information about this year’s AGM, conference and Resilience Awards please contact Head Office on 0845 600 9587.

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The AGM and Resilience Awards Dinner will be staged at the Courtyard Suite of the Ramada Solihull Birmingham: The Square Solihull Birmingham West Midlands B91 3RF Tel: 0121 711 2121 www.ramadasolihullhotel.co.uk Solihull Parkway Railway Station - 1 mile Take a taxi from outside the station or for those wishing to walk follow the signs to the High Street and the hotel is at the far end, opposite St Alphege Church. Approx £3 by taxi.

Birmingham New Street Railway Station - 9 miles Take a taxi from the taxi rank outside the station and follow the instructions above. Approx £12.

From the M42 Exit at junction 5, taking the A41 towards Solihull town centre. Follow the brown tourism signs to Solihull town centre. Continue straight through first set of traffic lights and just before the second set of traffic lights, bear left into New Road (signposted Ramada Hotel). After 500m the hotel entrance is on the right, opposite St Alphege Church and School.

Let’s get together at The Emergency Services Show and see how all the agencies can work closely together to create the perfect life saving team. Register for FREE entry at www.emergencyuk.com/eps8

Working together The growing Emergency Services Show is keen to promote interoperability and provides visitors with great opportunities to learn, network and progress their career development.

The College of Paramedics will run a series of free CPD sessions, open to all paramedics and other emergency professionals.

Free entry gives visitors of all ranks, access to over 300 exhibiting companies and organisations, as well as workshops, seminars, and live rescue demonstrations.

To help develop relationships between voluntary organisations and the blue light services, the Show has a special area of the exhibition called the Emergency Response Zone. This will feature around 80 emergency services-related associations, first responder and voluntary groups and industry charities.

Come to the Pendigo Lake at the NEC where you can witness exciting demonstrations of water rescue.

Visit www.emergencyuk.com/cr7 and register for FREE entry to the Show.

NEW VENUE NEW DATES NEC Birmingham 25 - 26 September Follow us on twitter @emergencyukshow Keep up with the conversation #ESS2013

FREE PARKING for visitors sponsored by

RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

RESEARCH DIGEST

This is the second part of a Research Digest featuring the work of a selection of Politi provide summaries of recent emergency and disaster related research. If any student please send them to Jeffrey Goatcher, Research Digest; we are always very hap A Pilot Study of Workplace Violence towards Paramedics

Boyle, M., Koritsas, S., Coles, J., & Stanley, J. (2007) ‘A pilot study of workplace violence towards paramedics.’

Emergency Medicine Journal. 24(11); pp:760-63.

Violence towards paramedics and healthcare workers is commonly reported. Boyle, Koritsas, Coles, and Stanley researched violence towards paramedics in two different areas of Australia, by defining seven specific forms of violence experienced by emergency services personnel, and eliciting qualitative descriptions of assaults and of their consequences.

For women paramedics, the most common form of aggression was verbal aggression and sexual abuse, for men there are more overt threats and physical abuse. Ninety-eight percent of paramedics report abuse from patients alters the patient-paramedic relationship, and 80% report these threats altered the level of care provided. The most common form of violence reported was verbal abuse (82%), and just over half reported intimidation (53%), closely followed by physical abuse (38%). Sexual abuse was the least common reported form of violence. This study provides a potential model for further detailed research on workplace violence experienced by emergency services personal, although its acknowledge weakness is that it does not elicit enough detail in the specific nature of violent physical assault (weapon presence or type, for instance). Luker

Successful Integration of Ambulance Volunteers O’Meara, P., Tourle, V. & Rae, J. (2012). Factors Influencing the Successful Integration of Ambulance Volunteers and First Responders into Ambulance Services. Health and Social Care in the Community, 20(5), 488-496.

This Australian study suggests the facilitative model of volunteer management encourages positive and innovative integration of volunteers and salaried staff in emergency response teams. This model has four components: Leadership, Integrative processes, Resource commitment and Relative autonomy. Many of the ambulance services operating in rural and remote areas in New Zealand and Australia are reliant on volunteers as first-responders in emergency situations. These mixed first-responder teams require thoughtful leadership and management in order to effectively serve their communities. O’Meara et al’s research suggests ensuring equal information distribution and opportunities for all voices to be heard improves the integration of first-responder teams. This helps volunteers feel part of the service. Local autonomy for volunteers is also identified as a vital characteristic of successful volunteer ambulance systems. Resource commitment remains an issue though, as volunteer ambulance services are not free. Effective funding for equipment maintenance and a training programme demonstrates commitment to the volunteer provision. Wright

Seeking out the ‘Short-Straw’ Shift Ingre, M., Akerstedt, T., Ekstedt, M., Kecklund, G. (2012). Periodic self-rostering in shift work: correspondence between objective work hours, work hour preferences (personal fit), and work schedule satisfaction. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment and Health, 38(4), 327-336.

Ingre, Akerstedt, Ekstedt and Kecklund, have researched the psychological implications of working ‘short straw shifts’ through the application of the process of self-rostering. They looked at hospital staff, police officers and call centre staff for a period of six to 12 months.

The process of self-rostering allows an employer to enter available work shifts into a database alongside the minimum and maximum work hours per employee, who can then enter work hours and days they would ideally wish to work. Some 28% of hospital staff and 57% of police officers preferred fixed schedules rather than self-rostering. The authors suggest that occupations that rely heavily on teamwork may be opposed to self-rostering for the fear of colleague conflict over work hours. Ingre et al also found, however, that applying a self-rostering process resulted in self-defined ‘evening type’ employees doing more evening work, while ‘morning type’ employees tended to work more mornings. The authors argued this is beneficial as it creates a greater tolerance to shift work and limits the recovery time required between shifts for employees and it is also associated with satisfaction with work. Sleaford

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RESEARCH DIGEST

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ics, Sociology, and Psychology students at Nottingham Trent University. Here, they ts wish to provide their own summaries of disaster and emergency related research ppy to encourage the next generation of disaster and emergency researchers!

Practical Strategies for Death Notification

Roe, E. (2012) ‘Practical Strategies for Death Notification in the Emergency Department’, Journal of Emergency Nursing, 38(2), pp130-134.

Delivering bad news to families/friends of victims needs to be done with empathy and sensitivity. Roe (2012) reviewed previous research in order to make recommendations on the best way to deliver death notifications. This article clearly highlights the importance of providing training to the emergency service team in order to sustain a positive interaction within families of victims. Though the majority of this article focused on emergency nurses, the findings can all be applied to all emergency services. Roe suggests topics that could be covered in staff death notification training, including: how to deliver a notification, manage reactions of families, and of notifying staff. As well as suggesting training content, this article is also useful in highlighting the problem of notifying staff experiencing distress. Although undoubtedly costly, in terms of resources and time away from front line work, Roe’s review suggests this may be an important area to consider: it is clear untrained staff should not be doing such a difficult task. Sneath

What is your Relationship with your Local Police Station?

Gravelle, J., Rogers, C. (2012). Initiating customer/police interaction in the UK: Early insights from research.

International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice. 40(4) pp 309-23.

Recent research by Gravelle and Rogers (2012) suggests the public perception of the relationship between the police and the public is increasing between a business and its customers, rather than service/citizen. They concentrate on how the police and the public perceive each other in a study of a single police service in ‘England and Wales’. Unsurprisingly the majority of the public view the police as protectors who deliver community support and benign surveillance; the pubic increasingly expects to be treated as customers by the police. This is changing the way police perceive the public, with far reaching organisational and operational consequences. Gravelle and Rogers suggest, however, that police and the public should see each other as partners, and the police-provided service can be greatly improved with the public’s active citizen co-operation. They observe active public consultation as essential in informing and initiating operational changes in police services. In the service under examination, however, this was not happening. They found the police are starting to adapt to changes in society, for example they have new phone-based ways for the public to contact them for non-emergencies. The police service research, however, did not consult the public about these processes. Gravelle and Rogers suggest this can “reinforce the current police occupational sub-culture”, to detrimental effect even in a customer-service relationship based on community trust. Vernon

Team Cohesion and Public Support Meyer, C, E., Zimering, R., Daly, E., Knight, J., Kamholz, W, B., & Gulliver, S, B. (2012). Predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder and other psychological symptoms in trauma-exposed firefighters. Psychological Services, 9(1), 1-15

Meyer (2012) looked at different predictors of PTSD in a sample (n=142) of full-time urbanbased American firefighters who had been involved in a critical incident (a Potentially Traumatic Event). Six participants (4.2%) met the criteria for current PTSD and the most prevalent symptom being alcohol abuse in 15 participants (10.6%). Rates of PTSD were much lower than expected and is believed to be due to the exceptional group cohesion that firefighters have. Some fire fighters had gone through the academy with some of the people they worked with. Group cohesion allows each member of the team to get access to social support within the team, which has been shown by a number of studies to reduce occupational stress.

Firefighters also generally perceive high levels of community support. Sandeman

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

STUDENT SECTION

THE FUTURE IS RESILIENT

By Becky Martin Becky.Martin@soton.ac.uk WHAT does the future hold for resilience in the UK when we currently face accelerated population growth, significant demographic changes and an increased demand for energy and fossil fuel?

The R-Futures final project workshop, recently held at the Royal Society, was the grand finale of an awardwinning three-year research project funded by the EPSRC and ESRC that has aimed to investigate these questions, and to improve our understanding of infrastructure resilience through interdisciplinary collaboration.

This has been achieved by stress-testing a number of carefully developed scenarios with stakeholders from across several infrastructure sectors in order to unlock some of the key questions and challenges that we may encounter, as governance and technology strategies change over time. R-futures has gripped the imaginations of

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both resilience practitioners and academic participants and the workshop series has not only provided an astute insight into our collective thoughts on emergency planning practice and policy, but has also crossed academic and professional boundaries to create a new research community with shared aims and objectives.

The Next Generation Resilience sandpit in 2009 provided the initial creative environment for the crossdisciplinary discussion that led to R-Futures and ultimately resulted in the construction of a multiuniversity team that encompassed Southampton, Loughborough, Newcastle, Durham, St Andrews, York, Essex and Kings College London. There has been subsequent engagement throughout the project with more than 20 academics, 50 stakeholders, 30 expert interviews and 12 focus

groups, to comprehensively explore the significance of robustness, recovery and adaptability, in the context of energy and transport infrastructure interdependencies and to understand the community and technological impacts of natural and malicious threats and hazards in the UK. The final workshop at the Royal Society was attended by more than 90 delegates from across the resilience sector and the project findings were disseminated via some excellent presentations, a poster session and a series of exciting multi-track workshops which provided the delegates with the opportunity to play through future hazard events while piloting a new interactive demonstrator system that has been developed as part of the project. The demonstrator system is a tool for exploring cross-sector resilience that uses episode development to

STUDENT SECTION

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Resilient Futures project has been a very rewarding experience. The team come from very different disciplinary backgrounds, and despite all of us feeling out of our depth at times, demonstrated a great deal of respect for each other and a willingness to learn and share.

“The most successful aspect of the project was the way disciplinary boundaries did not get in the way of good ideas. Through connecting very disparate parts of the research, Resilient Futures was able to develop a concept, building and advancing on this through each stage of the research process. It is also good to see a useful and practical end product, something which hopefully can be taken forward.”

Above: A snapshot of the R-Futures demonstrator system for a hypothetical place and scenario. Left: The R-Futures Workshop at the Royal Society. Picture credit: Professor Seth Bullock

provide a structural narrative, in this case, to explore the effects of extreme natural and malicious hazards.

The R-Futures multi-track workshop was set in 2050 and considered four separate and divergent worlds: High-Tech Hamlets, i-World, Local Power for Local People and the Global Village.

Each world had different perspectives on energy and transport infrastructure, social value, the role of the state, economic growth, attitudes toward environmental issues and acceptance of technological change.

I was a member of the breakout group that explored i-World, which is an internationally facing environment with high cost energy and transport and specific vulnerabilities of cascading failure, limited social capital, fuel poverty and socioeconomic

inequality. Through using the demonstrator system, the i-World scenario definitely improved my understanding of the interdependencies that exist between infrastructure and organisation, and I am sure that it could play an important role in planning for divergent phenomena.

To conclude, R-Futures has been an extremely innovative and much-needed project that has laid the ground for further collaboration. Threat and hazard are currently under-researched in the UK, and similar interdisciplinary projects are essential within the resilience sector because the challenges that we face are simply too complex to be pursued by the ideas and methods of a single discipline or sector alone.

Dr Beverley Searle, University of St Andrews R-Futures Project Team, said: “The

Author profile: Becky Martin is doing PhD on integrated population modelling for disaster management at the University of Southampton. She has a MSc Environmental Diagnosis and Management degree from the Royal Holloway University of London.

Becky initially developed an interest in risk and hazard while working on the management of soils containing radionuclides in conjunction with the nuclear industry during her MSc degree. Becky founded the independent water resource monitoring and resilience network “Let’s Go H2O!” with the support of NFU, LEAF and Sowing Seeds. She worked for Dorset County Council’s Emergency Planning department.

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

EXERCISE TRITON: STAFFORDSHIRE PUTS PLANS TO THE TEST

By Sarah Moore s.moore@staffordshire.gov.uk

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IVE days, 39 organisations, more than 1,000 players and 24 months to plan – Staffordshire and Stoke-onTrent’s emergency plans were put to the test last month in an exercise described by DEFRA as “one of the biggest emergency exercises ever undertaken”.

No stranger to flooding, Staffordshire was the scene of some of the county’s worst flooding for several years, back in 2007. The Lichfield District area suffered its worst floods in more than a generation causing damage and untold suffering to local people and businesses whose lives were disrupted by floods. But with lessons learned from the past, Staffordshire’s flagship Civil Contingencies Unit (CCU), one of only a few of its kind across the country, has been supporting emergency responders, the NHS, Environment Agency and local councils to put robust plans in place to deal with any future emergencies like those witnessed across the country back in 2007.

Last month, Staffordshire’s Resilience Forum (SRF), made up of 21 Category 1 responders, co-ordinated by the CCU, launched a full-scale exercise to put its plans to the test. Exercise TRITON began two years ago and was intended to be the largest exercise ever undertaken by the SRF – involving, for

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the first ever time, players from Gold, Silver and Bronze command, playing in real time, simultaneously.

Taking place over five days between June 3 and 7; more than 1,000 players dusted off their emergency plans and put them to the test in a carefully scripted scenario which would bring more than 39 organisations into play. Seen by the SRF as one of its highest risks and more likely scenarios, TRITON brought into play a whole host of organisations including Category 1 and 2 responders, the military, central Government and voluntary organisations.

The escalating scenario began on June 3 with bad weather predictions culminating in torrential downpours of rain across the region resulting in saturated ground, reservoirs becoming full to capacity and, eventually, the issuing of Flood Alerts by the Environment Agency for areas in a variety of locations across the county including Burton Upon Trent. ithin 24 hours there was an Amber Flood Guidance Statement issued by the Flood Forecasting Centre, predicting flooding in the region within 48 hours. This resulted in the first Flood Advisory Service (FAS) teleconference, chaired by the Environment Agency.

It was from here players were briefed to expect more

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inclement weather over the coming days, resulting in the escalation to a meeting at strategic level the following morning. The Strategic Assessment Meeting (SAM) the following morning is a unique layer of response, devised in Staffordshire and Stoke-on-Trent, and is, in effect, a pre-Strategic Coordinating Group tasked with evaluating how likely a certain scenario would be, how it might escalate and what response structures will be put in place if the situation does get worse. t was at this meeting where the emphasis of the exercise changed. Players were told of a problem at a nearby reservoir. Strategic Co-ordinating Group (SCG) and Tactical Co-ordinating Group (TCG) staff were deployed later that afternoon as organisations put into place internal rotas and emergency control rooms were activated.

By Thursday morning the scene had been set – it was now time for Exercise TRITON to kick-in to full force as part of a non-stop 24-hour exercise designed to stretch the emergency plans of the organisations involved. It would not be until 9am the following morning when the players would be told to stand down. With SCG and TCG running their own Battle Rhythm, the SCG met at 10am, 5pm, 10pm and 8am, and the TCG remained

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The Emergency Planning Society RESILIENCE Exercise TRITON Pic credit: Phil Greig

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

in situ throughout. The SCG took up its base at Staffordshire Police Headquarters while the TCG was located 50 miles away at Tamworth Community Fire Station.

Bronze commands took up post at seven different locations in the area including a nearby reservoir, a gas pumping station, an airfield and two rest centres. wift and still water rescue teams were also in situ at locations nearby including an operating quarry site. As the situation began to escalate, an emergency drawdown of the reservoir was instigated as high winds caused overtopping of the dam. The Environment Agency and High Volume Pumps were brought in from five different fire services in the region to help. At a nearby gas pumping station, fears of flooding were heightened, and with the region’s gas supply under threat, the Army and Navy were called in to help the Environment Agency erect temporary flood barriers. A Multi-Agency Strategic Holding Area (MASHA) was also called into action, with all Bronze assets being deployed from one location, allowing for centralised briefings and an understanding of assets deployed. The human effect of the exercise was then brought into play with two emergency Rest Centres called into action; the first being managed and operated

by East Staffordshire Borough Council; the second managed by the council but staffed by mutual aid support from the neighbouring Staffordshire Moorlands District Council, Tamworth Borough Council and Lichfield District Council.

‘Evacuees’ from Christian and Muslim faith support

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groups and Burton College were introduced, helping to test the resilience of the council’s Rest Centre plans.

Two Search and Rescue scenarios were played out for real – one involving a taxi crashing into the overflowing River Trent with six people missing, and another involving a train derailing into flood waters with up to 400 on board. The Police helicopter, RAF Search and Rescue helicopter and Midlands Air Ambulance were scrambled to help with the search and rescue effort, along with ground crews from the emergency services, Army, Navy, Staffordshire Search and Rescue Team, British Red Cross and West Midlands 4x4 Response. hief Superintendent John Drake, Staffordshire Police, said: “This was a fantastic opportunity for Staffordshire to work as a partnership to exercise our response to a major incident.

All agencies worked effectively together as they would in a real incident. Many people have worked long hours to support the exercise to make it so realistic and effective in exercising plans. It gives me confidence of the excellent support we can rely on in the event of a real incident.”

Nick Bell, Chief Executive of Staffordshire County Council, also praised the event: “A hugely successful exercise to test out how agencies in Staffordshire would respond to a major incident. It provides me with reassurance that all agencies are ready and prepared to deal with an incident. As always there are areas identified to make improvements to ensure an even better response,” he said. Although the post-exercise report is in the process of being written, we know

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there are plenty of lessons to be learnt - the biggest debrief point is likely to be around the TCG. The operation of a TCG over 24 hours made players appreciate each organisation ideally needs to deploy to the TCG with a two or three person team, to keep it operating when meetings are taking place. his was also evident when Exercise Control staff tried to phone injects through to TCG players and experienced difficulties in making contact with participants. Instead of the traditional method of debrief via a multi-agency meeting, an online survey website was used. This received wider views than would be possible during a meeting, it also allowed for targeted questions specifically about SCG, TCG and exercise control. The information from the responses will be collated to form a post exercise report. There are always lessons to be learned but Staffordshire and Stoke-onTrent put paper plans to the test in what was the largest exercise ever undertaken.

With the promise of more planning to come Staffordshire looks to be more prepared than ever to deal with the unexpected.

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Sarah Moore was the Project Manager and has worked for Staffordshire CCU for six years.

She is the lead officer for flooding and reservoirs.

The Emergency Planning Society RESILIENCE

EUROPEAN STANDARDISATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT

By Alan Elwood, alan@riskresltd.com FOR A while now I have represented the Society on the British Standard Institute committee looking at the development of guidance for crisis management and emergency planning, and in particular that for testing and exercising. I was fortunate to get involved with the drafting of PD25666 Testing and Exercising Contingency and Continuity Programmes, as well as the UK review of ISO 22398. My experience with PD 25666 had taught me that getting agreement within a nation was sometimes hard enough and required compromise but that it was worth the effort. So it was with a degree of trepidation, if not a little scepticism, that I took up the BSI invitation to attend a two-day workshop in Edinburgh being run by the European Standardisation Organisation. The event was co-ordinated by the Netherlands Standardisation Institute and ran in the sumptuous setting of Edinburgh City Council offices. During the workshop participants from many European nations were divided into groups and given the opportunity to discuss the needs for European Standardisation and various proposals for crisis management and civil protection. These proposals had been gathered beforehand and it was the job of the workshop groups to consider each in turn and then select those most suitable for further consideration. The output of the workshop would then be a roadmap that would set down a possible route to achieving

quick (one year), medium (three years) and long term (five years) wins in relation to standardisation. The overall aim was to strengthen European society and industry through the development of coherent standards for crisis management.

There were also parallel approaches looking at the issues of border security and CBRNE. All of this was being accomplished under security mandate M/487 as issued by the European Union. The process was initially a little bit confused but, in our group of about 20 or so people, we eventually started to get to grips with the task at hand.

We had a not inconsiderable number of proposals to consider, numbering into the hundred odd, and it soon became clear that anything other than a surface level discussion would be too time consuming and we would never finish. So we set about overviewing each proposal to agree what it was about. This was helped if the proposer was present but this was not always the case. Then we had to decide if we felt a proposal worthy of further consideration and how quickly we felt any benefit might be achieved. It was important to note we were not advocating a particular proposal should take place but rather that it should perhaps be given more careful consideration.

We were also able to group

some proposals together as they represented duplication or overlap. The facilitation staff captured the results of our efforts. A few weeks later a draft report was produced to outline the findings and provide the broad roadmap for EU crisis management standardisation development.

This roadmap focused in on three main areas for future standardisation: Emergency response planning and preparedness

Command, control and comms interoperability

Incident management and operational efficiency

Within this the road map recommendations included the need to consider three parallel routes (below).

Although the full findings are yet to be formally published it was comforting to see in the draft results that a focus was placed upon the need to achieve greater harmonisation and integration between organisations, sectors and nations. The buzzword, if there was one, which summarised this all of this was ‘resilience’ and one of the specific recommendations that received a lot of attention at the workshop itself was that of establishing an EU resilience standard so watch this space.

Route 1 Achieving political acceptance for strategic issues

Route 2 Getting functional aspects for communications and interoperability in place

Route 3 Developing technical aspects and minimum requirements, while keeping cost down

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

REMEMBERING GEORGIANA

By Becky Allen and Melanie Robinson AT 8.45pm on September 15, 1906, Lincolnshire experienced its worst ever rail crash when the Scotch Express from London Kings Cross derailed as it hurtled through Grantham Railway Station and smashed through the parapet above Harlaxton Road.

It claimed 14 lives but only one victim was buried in the county. She was Georgiana Baguley, a 33-year-old widow from Doncaster, who had no family to grieve for her, no-one to remember her name.

But 107 years on from her death, that has changed. Her name will now live on thanks to a major multi-agency response exercise recently staged by the Lincolnshire Resilience Forum which was named after Georgiana Baguley and dedicated to her memory.

Coming just two years after the LRF’s award-winning flooding exercise Watermark, Exercise Georgiana was based around a major transport accident, that is one of the top nine ‘enduring risks’ on Lincolnshire’s Community Risk Register.

It involved more than 400 members of the county’s emergency services and response agencies and was one of the biggest training exercises ever held in the county.

Exercise scenario It was 8.22am on May 21 2013 when the call came through - an East Coast mainline train had hit a tractor trailer on a level

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crossing at Claypole in rural Lincolnshire.

Two of the coaches had derailed – one landing on its side and the other ending up half way up an embankment.

Passengers were trapped and injured and screaming for help and there had been multiple fatalities.

Just 30 minutes later a tanker, unfamiliar with the road and looking for a way to avoid the ever-growing traffic jam, crashed into the village school resulting in more fatalities and serious injury to some of the children and a chemical spill polluting the watercourses.

Introduction The exercise, commissioned by the chair and deputy chair of the LRF, was designed to help raise awareness of rail safety and gain confidence that community safety was a priority for all participants, while also sharing knowledge and best practice with national and non-county based partners who had specialist roles and responsibilities. It provided an invaluable opportunity to learn wider lessons about interoperability and working together, test planning assumptions, ‘reality check’ Lincolnshire’s capabilities and capacity to deal with emergencies in the county, and rehearse people in the key roles of command and coordination.

As with Exercise Watermark, combining ‘command post’ and real-time ‘field exercises’ that also facilitated public engagement, was found to

provide the greatest return on the investment of time and funding. The objectives of the exercise included: ▪▪ Exercise ‘interoperability’ between emergency responders ▪▪ Exercise our ‘concept of operations’ for coordinating multi-agency responses to emergencies ▪▪ Test capabilities and capacity to deal with a major transport related emergency (search and rescue, mass casualties and fatalities, welfare of survivors) ▪▪ Apply lessons learned from Exercise Watermark and the 2012 Olympics.

Pre-Planning Planning the week-long exercise took nine months and was carried out by a multi-agency team. Lessons learned during Watermark were incorporated into the Georgiana planning where appropriate. As this exercise was one of the largest ever undertaken in Lincolnshire, taking place over multiple sites, it was decided planning should be broken down into specific areas with sub-groups undertaking the detailed planning for each area. The full planning team met every month and in the latter stages every two weeks with each sub-group reporting its progress and any difficulties encountered to the full group at each meeting. Briefing days were arranged for each agency’s operational and tactical commanders participating in the exercise and while details

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of the scenario were not divulged, command structure and protocols, relevant plans and health and safety issues were delivered to the commanders.

Exercise design Throughout the exercise there were multiple activities and operations happening across a variety of locations.

Newark Showground, just off the A1, was used to test the county’s hosting of the enhanced logistical support via the FRS National Resilience Team at a chosen Strategic Holding Area.

USAR teams from West Midlands, West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester, Merseyside and Kent were processed through this location before onward deployment to a forward operating base at the crash site. The opportunity was also used to explore, with the British Red Cross, the potential for similar processes for welcoming incoming support from the voluntary sector. The County Emergency Centre (CEC), located at Lincolnshire Fire & Rescue HQ, was where the STCGs met. Representatives from all participating agencies came together to form specialist support cells for operations, health, logistics, intelligence, media, community and recovery.

These cells were co-ordinated by a Command Support Manager whose key role was to improve communications, ensure smooth running and brief both the silver (tactical) and strategic (gold) commanders allowing information to flow throughout the command structure.

The Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) training facility located at Waddington Lincoln

was the location for the two simulated crash sites where the priority was to assess the situation, make safe and remove the casualties (played by volunteers from the local area and by Amputees in Action) Those requiring immediate first aid and hospital treatment were treated on site before being transported

by EMAS and the British Red Cross to receiving hospitals.

At any major incident it is vital the Incident Command Structure is fully supported by the appropriate personnel to ensure the correct information is being collected, tasks being prioritised, and the most up-to-date information is being communicated from the incident ground to the other command groups at tactical and strategic level.

The on-site contamination caused by the crashed tanker allowed the Environment Agency, Anglian Water and South Kesteven District Council to test their arrangements for site clearance and transportation of waste

procedures. British Transport Police (BTP) and Lincolnshire Police led body recovery teams to recover the fatalities from the scene after which BTP, the Rail Accident Investigation Branch and other colleagues began to investigate the crash site to determine exactly what had happened.

A Survivor Reception Centre (SURC) was set up at the village hall in Claypole, providing emergency shelter, care and welfare support to survivors, their family, friends and the bereaved. It was staffed by teams from the voluntary sector and local authorities. Several plans were also activated including the multi-faith plan and the rest centre plan.

Personal information was obtained from survivors transported to the SURC to aid the police with the many calls they received from concerned family members, friends and relatives, as well as information for the police casualty bureau.

From a health perspective,

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

A casualty is stretchered away from the wreck

this was the first opportunity to test the new health emergency planning and response arrangements following the national changes made in April.

Live play was conducted at Grantham and District Hospital, testing the hospital’s ability to respond dynamically to potentially contaminated self-presenters, and the area team, public health and the clinical commissioning groups operated together for the first time.

A ‘health cell’ was set up in the CEC focussing on the command and control of health resources in the county, and testing communication links with health providers. Each trust set up its control room and live data was used to give a realistic picture of the capacity in Lincolnshire on the day.

Specialist health advice was gained from a representative from Public Health England, present on day one

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of the exercise, and the close relationship between local authority public health and the wider health community proved effective.

DCLG also used the exercise to test arrangements for multi-response SCGs with colleagues from neighbouring counties participating in a conference call to examine assistance to Lincolnshire and the wider impact of the emergency.

A serious incident of this nature would inevitably result in multiple fatalities which requires rapid but sensitive management. In order to test Lincolnshire’s capability to activate an emergency mortuary facility as a result of a mass fatality event, the recently completed plan was activated. For the first time ever a temporary emergency mrtuary was set up by the local authority and procurement procedures tested.

It was important that the coroner and a representa-

tive from Disaster Action were involved in the planning stages and walked through the mortuary facility once established.

Observers from 14 different counties witnessed the exercise together with representatives from the Human Tissue Authority, Cabinet Office and the US Embassy.

What did we learn?

Overall, Exercise Georgiana provided the whole resilience forum partnership, including the voluntary sector, neighbouring authorities and agencies across Lincolnshire and the East Midlands, with the chance to train and test staff, equipment and processes to ensure they are fully prepared to respond effectively in the event of a man-made or natural disaster. The exercise tested a plethora of internal and external emergency plans and procedures when dealing

The Emergency Planning Society RESILIENCE Casualties are kept warm during the exercise

with an emergency incident affecting the East Coast main rail line in Lincolnshire.

David Powell, Lincolnshire County Council’s Head of Emergency Planning, said the commitment to ‘realism’ in both the design of the exercise and from all participants and volunteers was tremendous.

“It made the exercise for us,” he said, “I particularly want to praise and recommend the work of Amputees in Action – men and women who have lost limbs but who make themselves available for simulations such as this and add a truly challenging reality to any disaster scene.

“Lincolnshire’s FRS worked with Network Rail and the RAIB to create the most realistic and arduous of crash simulation for the exercise participants to train in.

“This is the second time we have run a publicly engaging exercise on this scale and we are keen to convert this growing and natural enthusiasm of local communities and other volunteers to establish more formal arrangements for future exercising.

“Of course, the reason we exercise is to learn lessons

and Georgiana has both ‘proved’ our overall arrangements for co-ordinating a multi-agency response and thrown up some areas where we need to do more work. Ensuring strategic co-ordination and communication drives an appropriate sense of urgency during the immediate ‘life saving phases’ of an emergency, collating and maintaining ‘situational awareness’, getting the command support functions up and running quickly, are among a number

of important lessons to take forward.

“One of the key challenges exposed by the exercise was co-ordinating responses involving national specialists, or other non-county based organisations operating remotely with the local community-based response of the LRF.” He continued: “While technology continues to enhance co-ordination, the value of local accountability and visibility for such community-based emergencies as replicated in Georgiana should not be underestimated. Exercising on this scale, and in these times of constraint, is becoming more difficult but no less important. It remains vital that we constantly test ourselves to deal with major risks and make the most of the opportunities presented by this kind of collaboration on a national, sub-national and local level.”

▪▪ For more information contact Ronnie Myers on: Ronnie.myers@lincoln. fire-uk.org or call 01522 582220.

The Red Cross were on-hand during the exercise

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

DYNAMICS OF RIOTS

By Mohamed Aly, Eastern branch

P

ROTESTS, riots and public disruption have increased dramatically in the last couple of years, from the Arab Spring to protests across Europe in the wake of the economic crisis. More recently there have been riots in Sweden, Turkey and Brazil.

Two years ago, nothing hit Britons harder in the chest than watching the horrific scenes of burning London during the 2011 riots.

On August 4, 2011, Mark Duggan was killed in Tottenham, London.

A peaceful protest on August 6, demanding justice for his family, sparked unrest, violence and looting that spread across London and the rest of the country for five days. Four nights of rioting and looting resulted in 48,000 businesses suffering financial losses, according to an analysis by the Local Data Company, while the Association of British Insurers estimated more than ÂŁ200 million of claims likely to be paid out by the insurance industry. In addition, at least 100 families are thought to have been made homeless as a result of arson and looting.

Following the London riots, there has been much debate as to why it happened; however, in this article we focus on the question ‘how does it happen?’ Crowd Dynamics1 Good knowledge about crowd behaviour and its underlying processes enables professionals in practice, eg riot police, to improve

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Police officers in riot gear stand near a burning car in Hackney (Getty 2011)

crowd management, assess the likelihood of violent or aggressive behaviour spreading across the crowd and to anticipate a riot.

Often large numbers of people gather at the same physical location at the same time while managing to remain calm and behave orderly. This includes daily commuters at stations, large-scale festivals and in shopping centres, to name a few. As crowds are so common, it is important to it is important to understand what factors affect the probability of a crowd situation to turn into a riot. There are various environmental (inter-individual) as well as the internal (intra-individual) influences that play a role in the probability of riots. In this article we will only focus on the environmental factors which are more relevant to the riots in London.

Physical Environment 1. Density Human density is an

inevitable characteristic of crowds as it involves the copresence of other individuals.

In a crowd, avoiding collisions is a basic mechanism in which human density influences walking/moving behaviour.

This mechanism affects the speed at which the crowd moves and therefore acts as a restraining factor. Density is a good indicator of how fast or slow the crowd moves from one point to another, which can be used to assess the timeframe required for preparations and actions by police and emergency services.

2. Temperature Temperature acts as an improving/dampening factor. Higher temperatures are related to an increased amount of riots and of crime rate, whereas bad weather, e.g. cold, wind, fog or rain, has a more dampening effect on aggression in crowds. As it appears, there are more riots in summer than in winter.

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Social Environment (InterIndividual) A crowd is a group phenomenon that emphasises a social setting. The social environment mainly involves influences by perceiving behaviours of other individuals, which depends on the connections that exist between the perceiving and observed individuals.

1. In-group/Out-group A crowd setting which involves a two-block setting i.e. two or more opposing groups, such as in sports and protests, is a situation with high potential for a riot. The distinction between them and us gives rise to certain group processes. For instance, when a clear out-group is present, the membership of the in-group becomes more salient, which gives rise to the so called in-group-outgroup bias.

Perhaps this was the most important factor in the context of London riots; the Duggan protest on August 6 primarily targeted the police, thus the in-group-out-group bias was a predominant factor right from the start and violence was almost inevitable.

2. Friendship Friendship indicates the unique relations an individual has with its social surrounding. These relations have an effect on how a person is influenced by the other, which exceeds the rough distinction of in/out-group effects.

It is usually the case that people attend crowds with friends, family or acquaintances, which makes an in-group being composed out of smaller subgroups that are closer connected and therefore stronger.

The effect of this factor was also clearly notable during

the 2011 riots. The crowd protesting on 6th August was mainly composed of family and friends of Duggan and took place in an area where social ties are reinforced by race and class. Furthermore, the call to join the riot was spread between friends through social media and direct BBM messaging. It is highly probable that every individual who was rioting or looting had friends who were involved too.

3. Leadership This factor implies that some people exert a larger influence on others than average, which is being perceived and accepted by most (sub)-group members.

A leader has a major influence on people who perceive him/her as such, thus if a leader is engaged in aggressive behaviour, the likelihood of a riot will increase. It is plausible that ring leaders of youth/gangs have played a central role during the England riots in 2011.

In order to turn this into actionable intelligence, a quantification method needs to be applied and suitable indicators assigned to reflect the status and development of each of these dynamics, and the level of risk associated with it. The second stage is to use these indicators to predict crowd behaviour and to decide on the most appropriate course of action in dealing with the situation. For example, how could the police maintain order without influencing the in-group/out-group bias that could lead the crowd to become hostile? Another example is how to manage the crowd, in terms of direction, access and routes etc. without causing unnecessary frustration that could

lead to aggression?

Online Dynamics2 During the London riots in 2011, most of the disorder was reportedly encouraged through social media, as it has been widely observed in other recent protests and riots across the world.

Online social networking is used to help groups, promote their cause, self-organise and attain critical mass participants. It is therefore crucial to understand the dynamics of this process. A study by Oxford University explains how digital media is connected to the diffusion of protests and riots.

As with real crowds, the following key groups could be found online: ▪▪ Early adopters; who lead the movement and recruit others to their cause.

▪▪ Spreaders; a group of influencers, recruited by early adopters, who then disseminate information far and wide. The spreaders therefore play a crucial role in ensuring messages reach large numbers.

The key to building critical momentum of an online ‘movement’ is the amplification effect of many users sending out messages at once. If users are exposed to many messages calling for action within a short timeframe, they are more likely to respond to this apparent ‘urgency’ and join in. This creates recruitment bursts that can translate into mass mobilisation with truly dramatic effects.

Why people back a specific cause relates to what is happening in the offline world. It is therefore important for the intelligence

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gathering process to monitor and analyse public sentiment and motives against the backdrop of current political, social and economic events.

A PESTEL (political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legislative) analysis model can be used to highlight the many underpinning factors that could spark public debate, outrage and protests etc which could develop into disorder and disruptive behaviour.

What does the future hold?

With the benefit of hindsight, it can be strongly argued that the underlying problems and preconditions of the London riots in 2011 still persist.

Professor Kessl, an expert from Royal Holloway, University of London, believes the riots were symbolic of a change that is occurring within society and unless the problems are addressed it is only a matter of time before further riots occur.

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He explains that as long as the politics in England go in the same direction of disrespecting people’s everyday needs, demolishing the idea of the public and strengthening the consumer capitalism, the preconditions for a new political revolt are furthermore given. Another trigger event is all it will take for a repeat of the riots that plagued London and other cities across the country in summer 2011.

References 1. Wijermans, N., Jorna, R., Jager, W. and van Vliet, T. (2007) Modelling Crowd Dynamics. Influence factors related to the probability of a riot. In: Fourth European Social Simualtion Association Conference (ESSA).: Fryske Akademy , pp.531-41.

2. González-Bailón, S., BorgeHolthoefer, J., Rivero, A. and Moreno, Y. (2011) The Dynamics of Protest Recruitment through an Online Network. Scientific Reports. 1, 197; DOI:10.1038/ srep00197.

Author Profile: Mohamed Aly BSc Arch, PGCert, ICIOB, is an experienced project architect with particular experience in crowd management.

He uses crowd modelling and simulation tools in architectural design and planning context to explore potential safety and security risks to design out and mitigate those risks.

Mohamed has extensive experience in the aviation sector and recently his work has extended to education and sports venues.

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OPERATION SPRING:

LIVE DECONTAMINATION EXERCISE

By Matt Overton, Yorkshire & the Humber branch BACK in January 2013, the decision was made to undertake a live practical exercise to test Scunthorpe General Hospital’s response to self-presenting contaminated casualties from a CBRN/HAZMAT incident turning up at the A&E Department.

With the recent purchase of new decontamination tents for both Diana Princess of Wales Hospital and Scunthorpe General Hospital, a live practical exercise was carried out in October 2012 at Diana Princess of Wales Hospital. This involved nine contaminated casualties selfpresenting at the A&E, with nursing staff setting up the decontamination tent and showering the casualties.

This exercise went well, so we decided to up the ante a bit and make the Scunthorpe exercise a mass decontamination scenario. We contacted Humberside Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) and agreed on a multi-agency exercise that would test the hospital’s decontamination procedures and equipment, as well as calling in the FRS mass decontamination equipment to allow each service to work together on their co-ordination, communication and see each other’s equipment setup and in use. Remembering back to the difficulties in securing nine volunteers willing to turn up on a Sunday morning in October to strip down to their swimwear and be showered, I was starting to think about the challenges

A&E staff in PRPS

ahead of encouraging enough volunteers to do the same in April, considering how potentially unpredictable the weather can be at that time of the year. Several working group meetings later and Sunday, April 21, 2013 had arrived and thankfully, so had 45 volunteers! I can even use the term ‘every man and his dog’, as we even had a working dog who accompanied his owner through the decontamination tent, presenting the staff with the challenges associated with a large wet German Shepherd sliding around inside the tent while keeping a watchful eye

over his owner. The morning started with briefings for the participants and volunteer casualties, followed by those volunteers brave enough to be ‘heavily contaminated’ having a cup of flour thrown over them.

The scenario An accidental explosion had occurred at an industrial site in Scunthorpe causing an initially unknown chemical to be released into the nearby atmosphere and contaminating members of the public.

For this exercise, we were not focussing on the response

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at the scene, but on the scenario of several members of the public making their own way to the local A&E as self-presenters, who would not have been decontaminated at the scene, as would normally be the case.

The exercise started with a simulated call from the local ambulance service to the A&E phone alerting them to the incident and initial details from the scene, delivered via a METHANE report.

The decision was quickly made to deploy the hospital’s decontamination tent in anticipation of any selfpresenters that may arrive.

The decontamination tent is the Rapid Pro 2 Line 7, a tent which easily expands out with a plastic frame to form a natural dome shape, secured to a groundsheet. The tent has two lanes, allowing two casualties to undergo decontamination at the same time.

The tent has three compartments, the first being a de-robe area, leading into the shower section, followed by a re-robe area, with each compartment separated by curtain doors.

The decision to deploy the tent to it being operational took 11 minutes; this was a good achievement as it included construction of the internal basin and flooring, connecting the water supply and positioning the pump.

The ‘casualties’ The first 14 contaminated casualties arrived outside the A&E cordon and were guided to the dirty zone holding area where they underwent a primary triage from a nurse wearing a PRPS (powered respiratory protective suit).

Communicating when wearing a PRPS is always an issue, so staff have to

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Contaminated casualties enter the FRS mass decontamination tent

give instructions loudly and clearly for the first casualty to enter the tent. During a real incident, casualties may have their clothes cut off them in the de-robe section down to their underwear, but for the exercise the casualties undressed to their swimwear.

Removing the contaminated clothes can remove 80% of the contamination, with the remaining contaminant being removed during the showering phase. The casualties were accompanied by Nursing staff inside the tent at all times and once in the re-robe compartment, they were provided with temporary hospital gowns, blankets and towels before being guided into A&E where they underwent a secondary triage. Due to the number of self-presenters that had already arrived, the potential for further self-presenters and prompted by the objectives of the exercise, the senior nurse made the decision to request assistance from the FRS. A 999 call was made to the Fire Service requesting assistance and in response Humberside FRS sent five fire engines, a HAZMAT van and

the mass decontamination unit trailer, which arrived at Scunthorpe General Hospital, accompanied by approximately 25 fire-fighters. The mass decontamination unit was deployed efficiently and was an impressive piece of kit, providing a large tent capable of processing more than 100 casualties an hour.

Once setup, the mass decontamination unit processed the remaining 31 casualties in less than half an hour and received excellent feedback from the casualties on how efficient the process was.

Feedback We invited observers from other NHS Trusts within the Yorkshire and Humber region, Humberside Police and the FRS to evaluate our response and provide an external pair of eyes. The feedback received from the multi-agency observers was invaluable and helped each organisation to gain a better understanding of each other’s equipment and procedures.

The feedback was reviewed at the cold debrief meeting, held a month after the exercise, where an action plan was

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Casualties exiting the tent after being decontaminated

agreed, with most actions relating to small additions to the Trust’s CBRN plan, the identification of mass decontamination holding areas and placing a wind sock outside A&E to assist with identifying the wind direction when setting up the decontamination tent. The need for a stricter control of entry between the clean and dirty zone was also highlighted.

It was also noted the benefits of using de-robe packs for the contaminated casualties prior to entering the decontamination tent. The FRS use these as standard, however not all hospitals have de-robe kits.

We are now going to look into what options are available for improving the initial removal of contaminant prior to going through the decontamination tent. The feedback from the casualties was 95% felt instructions given about decontamination showers were easy to understand, 81% felt confident they were completely clean after going through them. Some 26%

of casualties felt too hot or cold during the decontamination process with 65% of casualties feeling confident the hospital and emergency services are prepared to deal with a real incident like exercise. It was felt this figure was brought down by the initial delay in getting the blankets and gowns to the re-robe area prior to the casualties being decontaminated. Communication with the casualties was a priority during the exercise, ensuring they were kept informed throughout the process, and with 92% of casualties stating they understood what was happening to them after they had completed the showering process, it was encouraging to receive such positive feedback. Participating A&E staff fed back that they enjoyed the exercise, gained a lot from training with ‘real casualties’ and having the opportunity to watch the FRS procedures.

They have stated they would like to participate in future

training exercises. The exercise identified that A&E is able to respond to selfpresenters arriving from a CBRN /HAZMAT incident and the equipment would allow for the department to decontaminate up to 50 casualties, in a timely manner, without the need to request the FRS mass decontamination tent.

It was an enjoyable morning for the participants and the volunteer casualties, and I’d like to thank all those who took part and helped make it a successful exercise.

Author Profile: Matt Overton is the Emergency Planning Co-ordinator for Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. he is an Associate member of the Emergency Planning Society, and Special Sergeant with Humberside Police. He previously served in the Royal Air Force.

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RESILIENCE The Emergency Planning Society

Anytown: Understanding the ‘ripple effect’

By Matthew Hogan, London branch

IN MANY ways, London is no different to any other place where people live, work and visit. People and organisations are reliant on (and take for granted) transport systems, electricity networks, water supplies, telecommunication pathways and, of course, other people. But what happens when those systems are disrupted?

MATTHEW HOGAN, of London Resilience Team, outlines Anytown - a project to try and answer that question.

Similarly to the ripples caused by throwing a stone in a pond, the cascading consequences of incidents can be far reaching and complex. In the UK this was particularly evident in the 2007 flooding, however there have been countless examples of smaller scale incidents since which also demonstrate these interdependency issues.

More recently we’ve seen the effect that Hurricane Sandy had on transport, fuel, energy and telecommunications networks, with an estimated 9.3 million people across 20 American states without power.

London Resilience Team has consistently found that while there are small pools of tacit knowledge about these interdependencies, general levels of awareness are low.

Colleagues within utility providers work to ensure minimal disruption and rapid resolution of incidents, however all organisations

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should have a greater comprehension of the range of potential consequences.

In addition to this, climate change projections point to an increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events with a capability to disrupt infrastructure, so we need to develop our understanding now to implement proactive rather than reactive risk management strategies.

In an attempt to articulate these interdependency issues, London Resilience Team (with funding from Defra and support from UK Power Networks, Thames Water and the Emergency

Planning College) initiated Anytown. The objective of the project: to develop an interactive training tool which can be used across the UK by Local Resilience Forums to explain and develop awareness of these complexities. To build the Anytown model, information and experiences were collated from more than 100 representatives from a wide variety of organisations during February 2013 and then used to produce a series of Ripple Diagrams (right).

These illustrate the range of consequences resulting from an initiating incident in the centre. Moving out from Anytown Workshop, City Hall, London February 2013

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the centre, ripples show the relative order of consequences. For instance, in the event of a power disruption, the diagram shows the almost immediate switching to backup generators compared to the comparatively much longer lag time to seeing changes in demand profile for health services.

In his piece in the May edition of Resilience, Kevin Smith, Surrey County Council, highlighted complexity as a factor which organisations should consider in their business continuity planning. The results of the first phase of Anytown support this, and hopefully provide the basis for the development of tools which can facilitate this both at the micro-level

of organisations, and the macro-level of multi-agency resilience forums. Anytown will continue to be developed

by London Resilience Team and the London Climate Change Partnership through the remainder of 2013.

The intention is to produce an interactive training tool for use by Local Resilience Forums across the country, to develop their own understanding of the complexities of our modern infrastructure systems.

For more information about Anytown, or to be involved in the next stage of the project, contact: Matthew.Hogan@ london.gov.uk Above image courtesy of: London Prepared

Author profile:

Matthew Hogan is London Resilience Officer at Greater London Authority, and is the Project Manager for Anytown. Since joining London Resilience Team from West Midlands Ambulance Service in 2011 he has taken lead responsibility for risk assessment. As Olympics Resilience Manager he co-ordinated pan-London multi-agency resilience preparations and has been involved in the multiagency response to the Vauxhall helicopter crash and the Woolwich terrorist incident. Twitter: @London_Prepared

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