25 minute read
The Warren Report
Andrew Warren is chairman of the British Energy Efficiency Federation
It may be under-valued but efficiency provides a win-win
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over 20 per cent lower than it was in 2000. In the case of the main heating fuel, natural gas, the impact has been even more pronounced. Sales have dropped by approaching one-third. Largely due to better insulation and more efficient boilers and heating systems.
Yet there has long been an underlying assumption that the trend towards decarbonising the economy means that electricity will become responsible for a larger percentage of the fuel mix. That is undeniably occurring. This presumption has led to tax breaks galore offered up to suppliers - contracts for difference, depletion allowances, carbon floor prices, and capacity market auctions. No equivalents exist for the demand side investments. But the critical question is surely: what is the total size of the overall energy market likely to be?
Attempts to peer into a crystal ball half a century ahead are always fraught. As recently as 2010, the incoming Conservativeled government was officially planning on the basis of a possible “doubling, even tripling” of electricity consumption by 2050. Even then, in practice electricity generation was already falling year on year. Forecasting exaggeration of over 30 per cent The 2005 Energy White Paper had reckoned that by 2020 electricity consumption would already have increased by 15 per cent. In reality, it has decreased by 16 per cent. That is a forecasting exaggeration of over 30 per cent.
Given that between them the two serious new nuclear power station complexes – Hinkley Point C and Sizewell C – were both planned in that 2005 White Paper to deal quite specifically with this anticipated 15 per cent demand increase, it is little wonder that their interminable construction delays have not led to any capacity worries whatsoever.
Today’s official forecasters in the Business Department are now working from a far lower initial consumption baseline. Past experience has made the gung-ho a little more chastened. Currently primary energy demand is officially forecast to keep falling, by a further 11 per cent to 2025.
But after that, apparently we shall revert to the bad old ways. The Government forecasters reckon that we shall return to the world as they used to know it. The decline in consumption will suddenly cease, and within ten years it will be back not just to today’s levels, but to a whole 2 per cent more. B reathless headlines greeted the welcome news that, since 2010, the UK has been decarbonising emissions from the power sector at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. The rejoicing was prompted by a new survey “Electric Insights” issued by Imperial College London.
Cue the inevitable pictures of windmills and biomass power stations. Cue intense concentration by commentators about how the country’s generators have led the transition away from coal and gas to renewable sources.
Sadly, nobody chose to illustrate the story with pictures of LED lighting, or of super-efficient electrolysis components. Which is very misleading. Because statistically, the biggest decarbonising driver of the lot has not been to do with switching supply sources. It has happened entirely as a result of investments in more energy-efficient technology.
As the Imperial College report concludes: “It should be of little surprise that carbon pricing, coal and wind were big drivers (of change). However, these were all dwarfed by reductions in demand – reinforcing the often-overlooked mantra that efficiency is the ‘first fuel’ that should be considered.
Throughout this century primary energy consumption in the UK has been falling. And falling. And falling. It is now Interestingly, the Imperial College analysts are far more equivocal about likely electricity consumption trends. On the one hand, they state that: “Electricity demand may bottom out, and then begin growing towards the end of the 2020s. But on the other hand, they reckon “it may continue its gradual decline.”
Proponents of big new electric power sources eagerly point to road transport sector growth. But National Grid keeps saying the power system can cope with an overnight boom in electric vehicles (EVs), and that the extra generation capacity required to handle millions of vehicles is no big deal.
Nine million electric vehicles on UK roads might require 8GW of extra power generation capacity if people charge them up when they like. But smart charging could cut that to well below 4GW, according to National Grid’s EV lead, Graeme Cooper.
The firm’s modelling concludes that “not a tremendous amount of new generation is needed”, so long as energy companies “marry up the challenge of the generation and the wires to get the generation in the right place.”
So, even if increases in electric vehicles meet the most aggressive scenarios, National Grid’s modelling suggests the transmission system will not require a “wholesale upgrade”.
Given how critical the demand side of the energy equation is proving to be, it remains puzzling just how little political attention is being given to how and where these crucial savings are occurring - and then to realising the many unfulfilled potentials.
Hopefully, the March 11 Budget will kick-start genuine action. As the Imperial College researchers phrase it, the “first fuel” offers genuinely rare win-win opportunities. The power sector has been decarbonising rapidly this century. But this is due more to energy efficiency than a switch to alternative supply sources ‘It remains puzzling just how little political attention is being given to how and where these crucial savings are occurring’
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For further information on Association for Decentralised Energy visitwww.eibi.co.uk/enquiriesand enter ENQUIRY No. 126
Charlotte Owen is policy officer at the Association for Decentralised Energy
Make or break for heat networks
The hydrogen versus electrification debate is hampering investment in low carbon heat, believes Charlotte Owen. What is required is a combination of different approaches
we heat our homes and buildings needs to be taken from a national level to a local level and encompass fuels and technologies beyond just hydrogen and electrification.
Local actors are well placed to take a view of their area, identify opportunities, and prioritise the key values of the area to make a decision about the most appropriate decarbonisation pathway.
Indeed, if you dare wade into the hydrogen discussion, you’ll find that already we see discussion of hydrogen ‘zones’, where particular areas of the country are expected to produce and use hydrogen. This is something we see in the heat networks industry too, as heat networks are particularly suited to dense, urban areas.
Heating, including hydrogen, will provide an integral role in helping to decarbonise and safeguard our electricity grid. By working in partnership with the low-carbon heating industry, distribution network operators could help to identify the least cost pathways for an area, looking at the impact that different pathways would have on the need for grid reinforcement, considering the expected impact of peak demand on the carbon intensity of generation, and identifying which local pathway helps to reduce overall consumer costs.
The Government needs to provide certainty to industry that it will not artificially pick a winner, and an acknowledgement that the most appropriate decarbonisation pathway will differ across the UK. In providing this certainty that investment will not be locked out, it then allows industry to begin playing a clear role in identifying and shaping local decarbonisation pathways alongside consumers. It’s only by policy making investment in low carbon solutions a clear business interest that we will see this investment take off. The solution? A national framework which allows national government policy to be directed at a local level, creating clear investment pipelines. T he UK heat networks industry is on the cusp of a make, break or stagnate moment – and is indicative of many other low-carbon sectors in the UK. With policy signals a confusing mix, the publication of the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy’s longawaited consultation on the market framework for heat networks is a breath of fresh air, and a reminder that low carbon heating remains firmly on the government’s agenda. Right now, if you speak to anyone within the heat networks industry they will probably speak of uncertainty and risk. With the future of the Renewable Heat Incentive uncertain, the £320m Heat Networks Investment Project coming to a close in 2021, and the confusing signal that is the current draft of Standard Assessment Procedure and Part L; the future of the low-carbon heating market is by no means certain.
This year, HM Government will publish its Heat Decarbonisation Roadmap, and many within industry are looking to this to settle the debate between hydrogen and electrification. Instead, I would like to see HM Government commit to a more robust approach; a ‘patchwork’ approach, where local actors drive decision-making about the most appropriate local solution, expanding the conversation beyond just electrification and hydrogen.
As someone in the heat networks sector who is frequently immersed in the discussion but on neither ‘side’, it is easy to see how unhelpful playing these two paths at odds with one another can be. These two solutions are sometimes pegged as mutually exclusive pathways, when in fact a combination of the two, alongside solutions including heat networks, biomass, solar thermal, bioLPG and geothermal, will play a role.
But at roundtables and working groups, discussion frequently comes back to the old debate, with conversation about key policy asks faltering at this point. This is not the fault of industry alone. The government and academia spur on the debate about which single pathway to take, promoting an unhelpful narrative that only one of these two pathways will ‘win’ in the end. Though perhaps a tactic to fast track innovation as companies bid to be on the winning side, the counter-impact is that it’s not only the conversation that is faltering – it’s investment.
The insinuation that one fuel or tech will ‘win’, and one will ‘lose’, fosters uncertainty – and uncertainty underpins risk. Heating solutions are mid-to-long-term investments, but the fear of backing the wrong horse and investing in future stranded assets is preventing these decisions from being made at all.
However, this is no single horse that’s going to win – or at least there shouldn’t be if consumers are placed at the heart of decision-making. I prefer to think instead of a chariot crossing the net zero finish line, pulled by multiple horses, perhaps with Greta Thunberg or Sir David Attenborough at the helm. Heating isn’t that simple The reason there isn’t going to be one single winner is because heating isn’t that simple. The energy efficiency of buildings, availability of waste heat, access to outside space, presence of ambient heat, building fabric, existing gas grid connections, emissions, industrialisation, temperature demand, density, size of electric cabling and many other factors, all affect the viability of certain options.
The debate about the future of how The future of the low-carbon heating market is by no means certain
For further information on PassivSystems visitwww.eibi.co.uk/enquiriesand enter ENQUIRY No. 127
Ian Rose is professional services director at PassivSystems
Hybrids ready to take stock
Decarbonising social housing is affordable with smart hybrid heat pumps, says Ian Rose. They can work in conjunction with gas boilers to reduce stress on the grid
While decarbonisation of the UK’s domestic heating is one of the country’s most challenging problems, only 5 per cent of the energy used to heat our homes is from low-carbon sources. Smart hybrid heating systems, however, offer a practical and affordable pathway to help achieve the transition.
The introduction of the Future Homes Standard in 2025 mandates the use of low-carbon heating for all new-build homes in England. However, there are over 4m social homes in the UK that need to move away from fossil fuels if we are to achieve our net-zero ambitions. For social landlords, how they transition their housing stock while continuing to deliver social value and comfort for their tenants is a particularly difficult challenge.
All-electric heat pumps offer a low-carbon technology solution to replace traditional boilers, but the cost to retrofit the UK’s 4m social homes is estimated by Capital Economics to be almost £35bn. With most homes expected to undergo two or three boiler replacements before 2050, the UK needs a transition plan that avoids leaving registered social landlords (RSLs) with stranded heating assets and guards against saddling them with unaffordable capital costs.
Adopting a hybrid heating approach offers an effective pathway to achieving low carbon heating while helping to address concerns over costs and stranded assets. Hybrid heating systems operate an electric heat pump alongside the existing gas or oil boiler to offer benefits to both RSLs and tenants. Typically, the hybrid approach is easier and cheaper to retrofit than an all-electric heat pump. It does not require a change to the existing radiators and a smaller heat pump can be fitted. It also opens up the opportunity for RSLs to benefit from future demand side response market payments by using smart, integrated technology to dynamically switch
Smart controls can allow fast and easy switching between gas and electric supply
between the use of electricity and gas. This reduces demands on the electricity grid at peak times and turns homes into ‘peaking plant’ able to reduce the amount of electricity in use when the grid is under stress. Flexibility to support the grid has the potential to bring financial benefit to RSLs so a hybrid, dual-fuel approach to low-carbon heating can lead to valuable additional income.
This approach helps to reduce bills for tenants and lower carbon emissions, but without compromising comfort levels in the home.
The scope of deployment is significant, as highlighted in a recent report by the Energy Networks Association, ‘Pathways to Net-Zero’ 1 . The report predicts the installation of 22m hybrid heating systems by 2050 in its ‘balanced scenario’ which uses low carbon and renewable gases in combination with low carbon electricity. The result: hybrid heating systems become the dominant option for heating buildings.
Electrifying our domestic heating and transport systems will increase electricity demand. BEIS forecasts that we will require 80GW of new capacity by 2035, a big increase from the current capacity of around 100GW.
Hybrid with smart controls Hybrid heating systems using smart controls offer the opportunity to switch between the gas and electric supply. These systems can deliver flexible demand response and help to decarbonise domestic heating with no increase in peak load. By deploying this approach at scale
using multiple properties, RSLs have the potential to benefit from the financial value inherent in residential demand response.
A typical scenario would see the heat pump warm the house using cheap electricity overnight ready for the morning. Come mid-afternoon, the smart controls call on the gas boiler to quickly increase heat in the property. During early evening, the smart control system can switch between the gas boiler and electric heat pump to avoid adding to peak electricity demands.
Hybrid heating systems can move as much demand to gas as they like – they have complete load flexibility. With a gas boiler always available, the system need never compromise the comfort of the occupants.
A smart control system, developed by PassivSystems, enables switching between the two heat sources to automatically use the most costeffective heating mode at any time of the day or night.
The control unit uses machine learning to understand the thermal characteristics of the property and create a mathematical model of the house and heating system.
The smart control system combines the thermal model with weather data to choose exactly the right approach to keep the heat pump running gently while ramping up slowly throughout the night using a dynamically controlled flow temperature. This allows the house to cool slightly, reducing thermal losses, while keeping the heat pump running at a temperature that is as low and efficient as possible.
Machine learning enables the system to automatically tune the algorithm to the properties of the house. For example, the system would choose continuous heating for a slow responding system such as underfloor heating or turn off for some of the night if the house loses heat quickly.
Hybrid heating is proven technology, which is in use today. Unlocking the value of demand response capacity in domestic homes, enabled by hybrid heating, would provide the means for RSLs to fund their transition to low carbon heat.
For further information on Remeha visitwww.eibi.co.uk/enquiriesand enter ENQUIRY No. 128
Mark Gibbons is Remeha CHP’s national sales manager
Balancing your goals with CHP
As organisations look to reduce energy consumption and demand across their estates, CHP is proving an economic tool to improved efficiency in sites with high heat demand, says Mark Gibbons
R-Gen 50/100kW ultra-low NOx condensing CHP unit working in conjunction with six Remeha Quinta Ace 160 high-efficiency condensing boilers.
“Having one point of contact certainly makes life much easier,” said Paul Towler, director at CM Oxendale. “A major benefit for us is that the Remeha team have an in-depth understanding of both technologies which has resulted in a well-integrated system. They supported us throughout, from the design stage and hydraulic arrangement to the final ‘fine tuning’ of the system.”
As CHP is a specialist piece of plant, it’s advisable to implement a service plan, usually with the supplier, to maximise the lifetime efficiency of the CHP and related benefits. Cheshire East Council has implemented a Remeha service plan to ensure that the CHP operates continuously and at optimum performance.
At Macclesfield Leisure Centre, the CHP is running continuously, using all of the heat it generates to heat the swimming pool, provide space heating throughout the leisure centre, feed the Air Handling Units and serve the hot water demand.
Indeed, the scheme has proved so successful that the Council is installing a second Remeha R-Gen CHP unit in another of its leisure centres imminently.
“Since 2009, when Cheshire East Council was established as part of structural changes, the local authority has reduced its CO2 by 40 per cent,” Farrelly added.
“Alongside our environmental goals, the council has the ambition to improve the health of residents by providing them with access to leisure centres. So, it makes perfect sense to make them as efficient as possible – and CHP is helping us do just that. The leisure centre is one of our largest energy users and, as such, the impact of applying CHP will be significant across the whole estate.” I t is well established that energy efficiency is one of the long-term economic tools that can help us meet our environmental targets. Certainly, energy managers, who must balance improved building energy performance with reduced operational costs, often cite improved energy efficiency as one of the biggest opportunities to effect change.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), on a global scale, energy efficiency could enable the world to achieve more than 40 per cent of the emissions cuts required to reach its climate goals. Further, the IEA estimated that energy-saving measures can yield benefits of up to 2.5 times the value of avoided energy costs. Yet, while research shows that energy efficiency could be improving by 3 per cent a year, the rate of progress is on a downward trajectory.
So how to reverse this trend? Buildings are a good starting point as they account for 30-40 per cent of the world’s emissions. And in buildings with high demand for heat and power, one technology that is proving an economic tool to more efficient energy use is combined heat and power (CHP). Boosting the financial savings and accelerating the return on investment still further is CHP’s ability to generate electricity onsite at gas prices. Most CHP units are currently fuelled by natural gas, which has been consistently cheaper than grid electricity in recent years. The wide ‘spark spread’ between electricity and gas prices remains positive, enabling organisations to use this lower cost electricity on site to mitigate energy costs. All of which makes the commercial case for CHP still more compelling.
So how and where is CHP being used? One example is the recent CHP installation at Macclesfield Leisure Centre by consulting engineers SVM-Building Services Design and project M&E Contractor CM Oxendale. Macclesfield Leisure Centre is owned by Cheshire East Council. As the Council has the ambition to become carbon neutral by 2025, its energy department is keen to explore ways of reducing environmental impact across its estates. Intensive users of energy Leisure centres are typically intensive users of energy, with related costs accounting for 30 per cent of the complex’s total operational costs – greater than in any other industry sector. CHP is well suited to sites like Macclesfield Leisure Centre as the site is open almost every day of the year and has a 25m swimming pool as well as a training pool to heat. Cheshire East Council had a programme in place to upgrade the existing failing boiler plant as part of multiple refurbishment projects at the Centre.
“CHP was the obvious choice for us when the opportunity became available for the Council energy department to improve the efficiency of Macclesfield Leisure Centre,” said Colin Farrelly, energy manager at Cheshire East Council. Pairing CHP with highefficiency condensing boilers is an effective means of ensuring that the system performs to its full potential. The design scoped by SVM-BSD for Engie, the council’s principal contractor and FM provider, identified a Remeha Pairing CHP with high-efficiency boilers is an effective means for ensuring that the system performs to it its full potential
The commercial case for CHP remains compelling
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Enhanced range of cascade accessories
Ideal Commercial has enhanced its range of cascade accessories with the introduction of magnetic low loss header and cascade insulation kits.
The Magnetic low loss header kit introduces magnetic filtration to the Evomax 2 accessories range. Available in four different sizes to match Evomax 2 header kits, the magnetic low loss header offers an additional approach to hydraulic separation while providing a solution that is space efficient by combining a low loss header and a magnetic filter. Butterfly valves for system isolation are available as an optional extra. The magnetic low loss header supplements the low loss header and brazed plate heat exchanger hydraulic separation options already available for Evomax 2 Cascade installations. Insulation on a cascade installation does improve operational efficiency. Following feedback from customers, the new insulation kits improve on the insulation previously offered on Evomax and Evomax 2 Header kits. Made from robust expanded polypropylene, the insulation kits consist of modular sections which are combined to encase a range of headers, including the low loss and magnetic low loss headers.
Direct fired water heaters meet ErP regulations
Commercial boiler manufacturer Hamworthy Heating has extended its Dorchester range of direct fired water heaters to include the DR-LL and DR-XP. The Dorchester DR-LL is an atmospheric low NOx water heater which was specifically designed to meet the requirements of ErP regulations and refurbishment projects alike: It can be used on old systems with existing flues (the draught diverter will require changing), saving on costs for flue replacement. If the existing system is a flue cascade, then the appliances and draught diverter will require replacement to comply with BS6644 & IGEM UP10. The integral stainless steel burner produces low NOx emissions (34-45 mg/kWh) and benefits from an automatic gas/air premix burning system for increased efficiency. The water heater is available as three models with continuous outputs (50°C delta T) of 850 to 1600 litres/hour, recovery rates from 12 to 23 minutes and a working pressure of up to 8 bar help to meet the continuous demands of bigger (taller) buildings.
An optional unvented supply kit (up to 3.5 bar working pressure) which enables direct connection to the water hot supply reduces the risks associated with cold water storage tanks. It delivers better hot water performance at taps as well as higher hot water pressures in low level buildings.
The Dorchester DR-XP is a condensing water heater with stainless steel tank available in two models (38- 50kW input) of 184 litres. With an ErP efficiency of 91 per cent - 93 per cent and NOx emissions ≤ 53 mg/kWh, it is compliant with the latest ErP regulations that were further restricted in 2018. Thanks to the grade 444 stainless steel tanks, no anodes are required to protect it from corrosion. This makes it a great choice for soft water areas. With an operation temperature of up to 85°C, stored hot water stretches further (up to 15 per cent) thanks to mixing. As fully room-sealed appliance, it can be sited in small compartmental areas. Flexible flue options mean the water heater can be installed almost anywhere. For easy servicing, all components are accessible from the front.
Both water heaters have an easyto-use LCD display and are compatible with natural gas. They deliver an independent hot water supply from the main boiler and hence increase the efficiency of a heating/hot water system.
ONLINE ENQUIRY 129
Instantaneous electric water heaters come to the UK market
Stiebel Eltron has launched in to the UK market two new compact instantaneous electric water heaters as part of its DCE range.
The DCE-X Premium offers users temperatures that can be set between 20 and 60 degrees in 0.5-degree intervals. The system also has two memory keys installed so that it can remember frequently used temperature settings and activate an ‘eco’ mode which offers increased energy efficiency. Giving users complete control over their heating preferences and energy bills.
Each unit is held within a spacesaving housing and has been designed with rapid installation technology, making it the ideal solution to highdensity, city-centre developments in which space is at a premium.
The range also includes the DCE-S Plus which offers economical hot water and high energy efficiency for both residential and commercial use.
Mark McManus, managing director of Stiebel Eltron UK, said: “Customers, whether they be specifiers or residents themselves, are increasingly looking for efficient space-saving alternatives for their water heating systems. Particularly as demand for smaller homes in central locations increases. “This new range has been created with this in mind. Whether the customer is looking for a standard unit for constant water temperature, or a higher-end system with more control features, we have a solution available as a part of this range.
“Sustainable water heating solutions
like the DCE range will play a key role in the decarbonisation of UK homes by offering the opportunity to supply hot water powered by electricity generated by renewable means.
“With the climate crisis deepening and decarbonisation targets getting tighter, it’s vital that we embrace this approach wherever we can.”
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