STEPPING ON THE GAS

supply source. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), a grouping of the world’s largest gas producing countries, expects Africa’s global gas market share to rise from 6% in 2021 to over 11% by 2050. That growth will in turn help cement the continent’s status as an anchor of global energy security.

Africa must have natural gas to complement its renewable energy,” African Development Bank President Akinwumi Adesina said on the sidelines of a UN conference earlier this year.

That message should resonate strongly in a continent which the International Gas Union reckons boasts natural gas reserves of at least 18tn cubic metres (tcm), about 8.8% of the world’s total.

With a host of major export-oriented projects underway, Africa has emerged as a global gas hotspot – and, potentially, a viable source of global energy security, especially with Russian gas subject to supply disruption in the past year.

Gas comes freighted with advantages for African resource holders. While upstream oil projects remain subject to tougher scrutiny, gas is comparatively less vulnerable to environmental, social and governance (ESG) related concerns. That matters. As Adesina pointed out, even if Africa were to triple its production of natural gas from current levels, its contribution to global emissions would only rise by 0.67%.

There are some exciting new gas markets developing across the con- tinent, yet the biggest gas markets remain Algeria and Nigeria, which combined account for at least 55% of the continent’s gas reserves.

Algeria in particular is playing an important role in helping to ensure Europe’s supply security, ramping up exports to its main southern European customers over the past year.

But there are some important new kids on the block that attest to a much more advanced gas market developing in Africa. The likes of Mozambique, Tanzania, Mauritania and Senegal are just a few of the rapidly growing gas provinces, all with lique- suggests African gas will be hitting markets well before that 2050 deadline. According to Westwood Global Energy, a consultancy, Africa will account for 56% (10.2m t/y) of addidue onstream over the 2023-27 periregion are currently under construcritania, due to start production in Q4 of 2023.

Analysts see the likes of Algeria as primed to shape much of the continent’s gas growth in the coming years. Algeria’s state-owned year plan (extending to 2027), of which three-quarters will be allocated for new export schemes. Based on currently proposed projects, African gas producers have a proposed project pipeline totalling more than 55m tonnes a year (t/y).

Africa’s gas production has been rising annually. The International Gas Union (IGU) estimates this to have grown by a yearly average of 2.5% between 2011 and 2021, above the world average of 2.2%, reaching some 282 billion cubic metres (bcm).

This will ensure Africa emerges as a much more important global to exploration and production activities that have a particular focus on gas projects. come on stream, while production

Hassi R’mel, has been hiked. Over the southwest and southeast are expected to be commissioned to meet additional domestic demand and for potential gas exports to Europe, according to the Oxford Institute of Energy Stud- making available 10 to 15 bcm of incremental annual volumes for exports through the TransMed and Greenstream cross-border gas pipelines to

Corporation struck an $8bn agreement early in 2023 that will see the overall gas exports from 7m tonnes in 2021 to 8m tonnes in 2022, is also sending more gas to Europe.

But while North Africa will be focused on keeping European customers well supplied, much of the activity in Africa will be focused on supplying customers elsewhere in the world, and to meet domestic energy requirements.

Southern Africa is one emerging gas hub still in its infancy. In early 2023, France’s TotalEnergies revealed considerable reserves discovered in Block it will invest $3bn in developing those more than 13m t/y. In neighbouring Tanzania, where gas resources of at least 47 tcf are being developed, the ergies and Norway’s Equinor will develop gas from deepwater resources, through a dual-train 10m t/y plant. second phase. First gas is earmarked for 2026.

In West Africa, Gabon is another independent oil company Perenco will bring on stream a 700,000 t/y

Oil Terminal. In Equatorial Guinea, meanwhile, Marathon Oil is backing on Bioko Island.

Further up the coast, Mauritania and Senegal are playing host to ambitious projects sponsored by supermajor BP. The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) phase 1 scheme will produce vessel (FPSO) arrives this summer. second phase of GTA, which will see up to 3m b/y added.

In the Republic of Congo, Eni’s in December 2023 at the Marine 2025. from East Africa, notably Mozambique and Tanzania. TotalEnergies’ schemes backed by international majors following soon after – notably ExxonMobil, where production may reach as high as 18m t/y when it starts

All this project activity underscores an active and much more graphically diverse gas slate in Africa. And while that helps meet global supply needs – whether in Asia or Europe – it will also help to catalyse domestic industries.

The International Energy Agency forecast that Africa’s undeveloped gas resources could provide an additional 90 bcm of gas annually by 2030 for the fertiliser, steel, cement, and water desalination industries.

The IGU has urged Nigeria and other gas-rich African countries to increase domestic gas to close energy access gaps, arguing it needs to adopt gas locally to promote industrialisation, create jobs and expand supply chains with the production of fertilizers and petrochemicals, and develop energy-intensive industries such as cement, steel and desalination.

Then there is the need to address the continent’s electricity gap. As the AFDB’s Adesina has noted, more gas is needed to balance out the electricity supply given the intermittent nature of renewables. Gas and renewables can work in tandem.

“Africa has the highest level of energy poverty in the world,” Adesina said. “My interest is how Africa uses natural gas as part of its energy mix to provide electricity for 600m people today that don’t have access to electricity.”

Given that about 900m Africans are also in need of clean cooking, gas is poised to play a vital role in curbing energy poverty in Africa, just as it helps to provide new supply sources to customers situated much further

Ayman Soliman, CEO, The Sovereign Fund of Egypt