CATEGORY FORECAST
STUDY 2022
Holding the Line
Retailers expect to see more of the same in terms of sales for most product categories this year By Angela Hanson CONVENIENCE STORE OPERATORS projected
cautious optimism for 2021, with sales expected to hold steady in most product categories and grow in some. For 2022, c-store retailers largely expect to see more of the same for most categories, although the current supply chain disruptions and labor shortage have tempered optimism somewhat, resulting in shifts in minority opinions for some categories, according to the 2022 Convenience Store News Forecast Study. Categories with the greatest projected disparity between dollar sales and unit volume include motor fuels and tobacco, primarily due to rising prices. Other categories, such as prepared food, reflect the perception that things are improving — expectations for this category aren't as high as they were two years ago, but more retailers predict sales will see a bump this year. Here are the individual category forecasts for 2022, according to retailers:
Category Forecast: Motor Fuels
3%
Decrease
On the other hand, c-store operators are far less confident about fuel volume. A quarter of retailers expect their average gallons sold per store to decrease, while 47 percent expect gallon sales to stay the same. Just 19 percent believe their gallon sales will rise.
8%
19%
53%
25%
47%
Don't sell
36%
Stay the same
Increase
Don't sell
Increase
Decrease
Stay the same
DOLLAR SALES
GALLONS
Average % Expected Increase = 14% Average % Expected Decrease = 10%
Average % Expected Increase = 14% Average % Expected Decrease = 8%
Category Forecast: Cigarettes
19%
6%
Decrease
Don't sell
MOTOR FUELS Expectations for motor fuels in 2022 are a mixed bag. Optimism about dollar sales is fairly widespread, as 53 percent of c-store retailers expect their average motor fuel dollar sales per store to increase, and 36 percent expect sales to stay the same. Both large and small operators are in agreement that fuel dollar sales are unlikely to decrease in 2022.
8%
39%
Stay the same
36%
6%
Don't sell
44%
Decrease
Increase
DOLLAR SALES Average % Expected Increase = 10% Average % Expected Decrease = 14%
19%
Increase
31%
Stay the same
UNIT VOLUME Average % Expected Increase = 12% Average % Expected Decrease = 10%
Source: Convenience Store News 2022 Forecast Study
Growth in electric vehicles and the increasing movement toward more fuel-efficient cars are among the trends retailers cite as having a likely effect on motor fuel sales in 2022. And Forecast Study participants overall agree on one particular problem: fuel prices.
can no longer afford to fill their cars, but the credit card companies are taking bigger chunks when the dollar amount of the transaction goes up," one retailer said. "We can't win."
"The cost of fuels is skyrocketing. People
"It is hard for the little man to compete with larger organizations,"
38 Convenience Store News C S N E W S . c o m
While large and small operators did not express significantly different sentiments about the category's 2022 prospects, some retailers point out a disparity in impact.
