MARKET INSIGHTS
Highlights from the ProDealer Industry Summit Industry innovation inspires talking points at 2021 PDIS. Is it possible that homeowners of the not-too-distant future will have large parts of their dwelling (or maybe even all of it) delivered from a printer, instead of a building supply dealer? The short answer, according to a presentation during the 2021 ProDealer Industry Summit, is “yes.” And not only that, these 3D-printed materials could be extruding bio-based materials that are good for the environment. That was one of the forward looking ideas featured in the presentation, titled “Innovation & Disruption in the LBM Industry.” The presentation also looked at the concepts of modular building, cross-laminated timber and virtual reality.
Moulding samples merely hint at the disruptive potential of 3D printing.
With things moving fast, it’s hard to identify the next big thing that will alter the business. Tiffany Reeder of US LBM Holdings, product manager,
interiors, described virtual reality as having a real impact today in forwardthinking show rooms. Customers and home owners. Experience a “wow” moment, she said, when they put on their VR goggles supplied by the show room. “The crisp incredibly real images that we can create actually make you want to reach out and turn on the faucet at the sink, or walk over and open a cabinet door,” she said. “It’s this visualization and interactivity that our customers expect.” This selling process allows the dealer to connect with the customer, especially the younger customer.
More obstacles ahead for housing Ivy Zelman shares her market analysis, ready or not.
By Andy Carlo
If you’re a dealer who has benefitted from the surge in residential construction, remodeling and home improvement sales in the past year, now might be the time to put some money away. That was one of the messages Ivy Zelman delivered while providing a housing forecast at the 2021 ProDealer Industry Summit, which was held in a virtual format last month. Zelman, the CEO of Zelman & Associates and one of the industry’s top analysts, said that the housing and home improvement markets have enjoyed a prosperous run; a stark contrast to other industries hit hard by the pandemic in the past year, such as travel and hospitality.
home sales should increase 10% this year. But she sees just 4% growth next year before falling by 3% in 2023. Fueling housing supply challenges is a bottleneck of new construction along with inflation, which is forcing some builders to take a step back from new orders. Additionally, multiple generations are remaining in their homes longer while enjoying and retaining low mortgage rates. And as home prices continue to climb, and with higher mortgage rates on the way, current homeowners are even more reluctant to leave their current residence. “Homeowners are not going to trade up for another home at a higher rate,” Zelman noted.
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Still, there are hurdles in the industry that include high lumber prices, a supply chain slowdown, and a labor shortage. “While it’s challenging, I’m happy for all of my friends in the industry who have had an incredible ride,” Zelman said. But the analyst said she sees the market reverting in the next few years. Looking ahead, Zelman said she expects production new home orders to rise by 7% in 2021, just 2% in 2022 and fall by 6% in 2023. Zelman also forecasts single-family starts to increase 16% in 2021 and grow 4% in 2022 before dipping by 5% in 2023. While the industry is facing a housing supply challenge, Zelman said existing-
JUNE 2021 HARDWARE + BUILDING SUPPLY DEALER
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