Country Profile Portugal www.lloyds.com/PortugalMI
May 2014 chris.brown@lloyds.com
KEY FACTS FULL NAME / CAPITAL CITY: Portuguese Republic / Lisbon LANGUAGE:
Portuguese, Mirandese
MAIN EXPORT PARTNERS:
Spain 23%, Germany 12%, France 12% (2012)
MAIN IMPORT PARTNERS:
Spain 32%, Germany 12%, France 7% (2012)
MAIN EXPORTS:
Agricultural products, food products, wine
MAIN IMPORTS:
Agricultural products, chemical products, vehicles and other transport materials 2012 Rank
2013 Rank
30
30
0
COMPETITIVENESS:
45
49
-4
FREEDOM FROM CORRUPTION:
34
32
2
YEAR
US$ 243.3bn (Global Rank #54)
POPULATION:
10.7m (Global Rank #80)
IMF CATEGORISATION:
“Developed”
Change in Rank
EASE OF DOING BUSINESS:
DISASTER
GDP (PPP):
ECONOMIC COST (US$ x 1000)
Flood
2010
1,867,640
Wildfire
2003
1,730,000
Wildfire
2005
1,650,000
Drought
2004
1,338,136
Storm
2010
270,000
Source: Disaster Statistics based on: Prevention Web (2013); Export Statistics based on CIA World Factbook; Doing Business Indicators based on World Bank & World Economic Forum © Lloyd’s
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KEY STATISTICS GOVERNANCE INDICATORS
SIZE OF ECONOMY
WEALTH PER CAPITA
Percentile Rank (1-100) 2012
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis in International $ bn
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) basis in International $
PT
ES
IT
Portugal
Spain
Italy
2,500
Government Effectiveness
81
82
66
2,000
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
70
43
63
1,500
Control of Corruption
78
82
58
1,000
Regulatory Quality
76
78
75
500
Rule of Law
82
83
62
0
2012
Voice and Accountability
78
80
23,047
21,545
30,000
27,170
40,000
228
243
290
20,000 10,000 0 2006
2013
PT
ES
2018f
2006
IT
PT
2012
2018f
74 ES
IT
TOTAL NON-LIFE DIRECT INSURANCE MARKET*
NON-LIFE DIRECT INSURANCE MARKET
LLOYD’S GROSS SIGNED PREMIUMS
Premiums in US$ m
Premiums in US$ m; by OECD Class
Gross Signed Premiums in US$ m; by country of origin 700
60,000 Motor
84 146
50,000
268
600
PA & Health
40,000 Property
30,000
300
2012
2013
ES
IT
41
26
1,623
45
100
0
PT
400
MAT Miscellaneous
2011
Portugal 2012 US$ 5.1bn
2,018
200
5,365
5,125
10,000
5,730
Liability
20,000
500 986
0 2011
2012
2013
PT
ES
IT
All data, sources & data limitations are available for download at www.lloyds.com/comparecountries; * 2013 total non-life based on CAGR projection
LLOYD’S TRADING POSITION Portugal www.lloyds.com/crystal
Insurance: Yes (All classes except for motor vehicle liability and life insurance on an Establishment basis) Reinsurance: Yes (All classes of reinsurance business originating in Portugal) Coverholders: Yes © Lloyd’s
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BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Government stability will be tested, but the short-term outlook is positive. Portugal's political stability has improved since July 2013 when the ruling coalition managed to overcome its worst crisis since assuming power in 2011. A cabinet reshuffle, granting more policy-making powers to the junior coalition partner, narrowly prevented a government collapse. Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho is keen to maintain stability and avoid an early election, at least before June 2014 when Portugal is due to exit its current bailout arrangement. However, public support for the government and its policies remains low. Meanwhile, rejection of the government's policies by the Constitutional Court represents another significant non-economic risk to the country's adjustment programme. Strikes and protests have intensified amid ongoing austerity. Alongside internal splits and legal obstacles, public protests exert pressure on the embattled government and its unpopular austerity agenda. In general, demonstrations in Portugal have been relatively subdued compared with those seen in Greece. However, the ongoing fiscal crisis and tough austerity measures are taking their toll and the protests could become more frequent throughout 2014, especially if the ruling coalition sticks to its current policy agenda. Despite improving sentiment, we believe Portugal will request a credit line following the end of the current bailout in May 2014. Yields on Portuguese debt have gone down markedly, while Portugal has already tested bond markets by issuing long-term debt twice since the start of 2014, encountering strong demand, particularly from foreign investors. Despite these positive developments, we estimate that Portugal will request a conditional credit line from the European Stability Mechanism. Despite recent contraction, yields are still high taking into account Portugal's growth and inflation prospects. A credit line should help to keep bond yields low, diminishing the need for further fiscal tightening. Moreover, a credit line should help to shield Portugal from any sudden change in sentiment. The economy is expected to grow modestly in 2014. GDP grew, on a quarterly basis, for the third consecutive quarter during the fourth quarter of 2013. Improving confidence, a stabilising labour market, low inflation, and slightly stronger external demand should continue to support the economy during the coming quarters. However, the economy is still not out of the woods and activity will remain under pressure from several factors. Unemployment remains very high, while private and public deleveraging will continue for a prolonged period. Furthermore, fiscal policy will also be tightened sharply in 2014.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
TOP-10 SECTORS (BY VALUE ADDED)
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT INFORMATION
(nominal GDP levels in billion US$; Real GDP change)
(value added in billion US$ & 2014 Change in real %)
(provided by IHS Global Insight, May 2014)
500
3%
TOP SECTORS 400
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
2%
1.4% 1.0%
1%
0.6% 300
0%
200
-1%
-1.3%
-1.5% -2%
100 -3%
-3.2% 0
-4% 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2013 Value Added
2014 Percentage Change
1. Public Admin. & Defense 2. Education 3. Retail trade - total 4. Real estate 5. Health and social services 6. Banking & related financial 7. Wholesale trade 8. Business services 9. Hotels & restaurants 10. Agriculture
18.7
-0.5
13.2
-0.5
12.8
0.9
Top-10 Total
119.2
12.7
2.5
12.5
-0.2
11.9
0.8
11.6
0.5
9.6
1.1
9.1
-0.2
7.1
0.8
For daily updates visit: > www.ihsglobalinsight.com Š Lloyd’s
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INSURANCE ENVIRONMENT 2012 MAJOR DIRECT INSURERS
2012 DIRECT GROSS PREMIUMS
(Gross Written Premiums in US$ m)
(Gross Written Premiums)
Grupo Caixa 2020
Ocidental
1064
Santander
Motor
970
986
703 603
Tranquilidade
465
AXA Seguros
425
84 146
268
The Insurance association > www.apseguradores.pt
PA & Health Property
Açoreana
Insurance Market Profiles > www.iii.org/international/profiles
4486
BES-Vida
Allianz
QUICK LINKS / USEFUL SOURCES
Liability
Portugal 2012 US$ 5.1bn
MAT Miscellaneous
1,623
2,018
The Insurance Institute > www.isp.pt Lloyd’s Agency Network > www.lloyds.com/agency Lloyd’s Claims Team > www.lloyds.com/claims
Crédito…
410
BUSINESS CULTURE GUIDE
Zurich…
367
> http://www.kwintessential.co.uk (View Resources > Culture Guide)
Source: Association: > www.isp.pt
Source: Association: > www.isp.pt
Non-life insurance market is estimated to be around US$ 5.1bn for 2012: The Portuguese non-life market is feeling the effects of the downside of the recession. Competition in the sector owing to reduced investment, imports and exports, a construction crisis and a significant stalling of the manufacturing industry have driven rates that had already seen huge reductions further down. Few foreign insurers: Domestic insurance companies dominate the Portuguese non-life market, with around a 60% share. The remaining are foreign insurers, with the majority being branches of EU companies. Broker market: There are three types of agents in the Portuguese insurance market: the tied intermediary (mediador ligado), the agent (agente) and the broker (corretor). Brokers tend to operate mainly in the commercial and industrial large risk sector although there are some brokers specialising in personal lines business. No domestic reinsurance market: Following the withdrawal of Hanseatica Ruck in 2001 and Companhia Portuguesa de Resseguros SA, known as Portugal Re, in 2003, there is now no domestic reinsurance market.
© Lloyd’s
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LLOYD’S BUSINESS 2009-2013 LLOYD’S TOTAL PREMIUMS
2013 LLOYD’S HIGH LEVEL CLASSES
Gross Signed Premiums; Direct versus Reinsurance; in million US$
Gross Signed Premiums; high level classes; in million US$
2013 GROSS SIGNED PREMIUMS*
50 45 40 35 12 12
Reinsurance Direct
US$ 12m US$ 29m
15
1.4
Property Treaty
31
*COUNTRY OF ORIGIN PREMIUMS 29
24 19
Policyholders are based or headquartered in this territory;
Premiums may be written outside this territory;
15
5 0 2009
0.0
0.5
Property (D&F)
10.4
Marine 11
20 10
US$ 41m
12
30 25
Total 14
UK Motor Overseas Motor
2010 Direct
2011
2012 Reinsurance
2013 X X
Not necessarily where risks are located May differ to what is reported to local regulator (dependent on local requirements).
6.6
Energy
14.3
Casualty
3.0
Casualty Treaty
0.4
Aviation
3.0
Accident & Health
1.4
0
5
10
15
20
SOURCE: Market Intelligence based on *Gross Signed premiums; Xchanging (2014); unaudited figures based on country of origin and processing by calendar year; see Appendix for details
Mr Juan Arsuaga Type 3 Office
A Type 3 office is defined as a Lloyd's office headed by a Country Manager who in addition to meeting regulatory requirements in that territory also proactively supports the business development objectives of the managing agents in that territory.
Lloyd’s Country Manager
Calle José Ortega y Gasset 7 Edificio Serrano 49 1a Planta 28006 Madrid, Spain
TELEPHONE: EMAIL:
+34 91 426 2312 juan.arsuaga@lloyds.com © Lloyd’s
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LLOYD’S OBJECTIVES
To strengthen Lloyd’s position as a reliable, specialist insurance provider to the local industry and their international business. Place Lloyd’s as the insurance market of reference in the Iberian Peninsula for cedants, brokers and risk managers needing specialised, large capacity solutions should be our focus with emphasis in the Lloyd’s financial strength and solvency as well as underwriting expertise and capacity to support international risks.
LLOYD’S KEY INITIATIVES 2014
Take advantage of Lloyd’s financial rating and international capacity to make Lloyd’s business grow with large multinationals: Maintain a constant contact with MAs to explain the opportunities that the Iberian market offers as well as understand their appetite for business. Support presentations to the main brokers of this business for them to know Lloyd’s appetite. Finally work together with the risk managers and cedants to educate about the Lloyd’s market and show the solutions that Underwriters may offer.
Contribute to the business growth in LATAM (Vision 2025) through the opportunity that the Iberian market offers as a platform to the LATAM market
Promote the use of CHs as a way of reaching medium size companies and highly specialised insurance solutions markets: Work closely with CHs and MAs to detect niches and business opportunities. Promote CHs as the preferred business platform for MAs in the Iberian Peninsula, with the aim of other intermediaries consider CHs as an efficient way of looking solutions for their clients’ needs. Monitor and lobby potential legal changes in 2014, which might put Spanish CHs at the same level than EU coverholders.
EVENTS & MARKET INTELLIGENCE 2014 INDUSTRY EVENTS
2014 LLOYD’S EVENTS
Available Market Intelligence products for this territory include:
AGERS Risk Managers Conference, 21,22,23 May, Madrid
Catalonia World Week, 4Q,. Barcelona
Coverholder Awards, 8 October, Madrid
ENTRE Reinsurance Conference, 1,2 &3 October, Madrid
Lloyd’s Meeting Point , 19-20 February, Madrid
FORINVEST - International Forum about reinsurance and finances, organised by ACS (Association Insurance Intermediaries,13 March 2014. Valencia
Iberia market Presentation & Class Review
Association of Catalonian’s intermediaries Meeting,. 20 March 2014. Tarragona
Association of Castilian’s intermediaries Meeting 6 June, Soria http://www.lloyds.com/lloyds/offices/europe/spain/eventsin-spain
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
Reinsurance Report – 23 October, London
Country Profile Market Presentation Country Roundup
Class of Business Event, 29 October, Madrid Class Review – Lite (work in progress) www.lloyds.com/PortugalMI © Lloyd’s
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APPENDIX MACRO-ECONOMIC & BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT DATA Source: IMF (www.imf.org/external/data.htm), World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/), IHS Global Insight. Notes: GDP data on size and wealth of the economy is reported in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms; this is the most accurate indicator of the true standard of living in each country and therefore potential demand. To calculate this, GDP is converted from local currency to an international $ currency using PPP exchange rates rather than the market exchange rate. The PPP local currency-to-international $ exchange rates are determined such that a standard basket of goods has the same price in international $ terms in each country. This adjusts for the differing costs of goods across countries, when converted at market exchange rates. INSURANCE MARKET DATA Source: Reported data derived by Lloyd’s Market Intelligence team; original source is regulatory bodies, associations, third party information providers. Notes: Data is reported in US$. For more information, see www.lloyds.com/comparecountries. Exchange Rates Note: Where required, data has been converted to US$ using annual average exchange rates as per www.oanda.com. LLOYD’S PREMIUM DATA Source: Reported data derived by Lloyd’s; original source is Xchanging (data therefore contains only premiums processed by Xchanging). Notes: Data is reported is US$, on a calendar year basis and is signed gross premiums. This differs from the data published in the Lloyd’s Annual Report, which is also on a calendar year basis, but is written gross premiums and sourced directly from Syndicates. Differences are therefore (1) timing inconsistencies between signed and written gross premiums; (2) inconsistent use of exchange rates by Syndicates and Xchanging; & (3) incompleteness of Xchanging data set for certain classes of business (a substantial amount of premium is not processed by Xchanging and missing from the REG 258 data set; this comprises, for example, UK Motor). Exchange Rates Note: Data has been converted to US$ using monthly exchange rates provided by Xchanging. Definitions: Gross Signed Premiums: Original and additional inward premiums, plus any amount in respect of administration fees or policy expenses remitted with a premium but before the deduction of outward reinsurance premiums. Calendar Year: Relates to the calendar year in which the premium, additional or return, is processed by Xchanging. This is irrespective of the actual underwriting year of account, which is determined by the inception date of each risk. Country of Origin: Denotes the domicile of the insured party (i.e. the coverholder or policyholder). This is the country from which demand for the insurance / reinsurance emanates, & is irrespective of the country to which the risk is classified for regulatory reporting purposes. Example: A policy holder in the UK insuring a holiday home in France would be classified as a UK risk by “Country Of Origin”, but “French” for regulatory reporting purposes. Similarly a risk incepting on 1st December 2007 would be classified at 2007 “Underwriting Year of Account” but may not be processed by Xchanging until 2008 and so be allocated to the 2008 “processing year”. ACCESSING THE DATA: to access the raw data in this document, and equivalent data for other countries, see www.lloyds.com/comparecountries.
DISCLAIMER: This document is intended for general information purposes only. Whilst all care has been taken to ensure the accuracy of the information, Lloyd's does not accept any responsibility for any errors or omissions. Lloyd's does not accept any responsibility or liability for any loss to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of, but not limited to, any statement, fact, figure, expression of opinion or belief contained in this document. © Lloyd’s
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