REPUBLIC OF TUNISIA
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014 Towards an innovation and creation based growth
September 2010
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Introduction Tunisia has succeeded for more than two decades of work, building and reform on the path of comprehensive and balanced development in significant achievements on all levels which has enabled it to rank among the constellation of emerging countries and gain the confidence of the international community. The overall gains and achievements reflects the right approach adopted based on the reforms in the context of prospective vision and participatory process which permitted to identify trends and draw the appropriate development options to keep pace with the evolution of society and meet the needs of the successive developments witnessed by the global economic scene. In preparation for the next stage of development process in which Tunisia aims to achieve a quantum leap and new content to the path of reform, The XII development plan with its prospective deep dimensions, covering the period 2010-2014, aims to engage Tunisia in an advanced stage to catch up the developed countries and achieving more social welfare and economic prosperity as stated in the presidential program for the same period. The acceleration of structural transformations at the national and international context has engendered significant direct effects on demographic and social developments, and increasing pressures on available resources and the negative repercussions that have been caused by the phenomenon of globalization and the volatility of international markets of energy and basic materials and the emergence of economic crisis, the trend towards reformulation of development priorities and the establishment of a new model of economic growth would contribute to face the current and the next challenges related to the employment of higher education graduates and increasing the per capita income and supporting the economy competitiveness and ensuring the positive impact
of
the
development on all categories and regions and establishing the foundations of sustainable development.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Contents Main achievement 2007 - 2009 1. Economic and Social Reforms 2. Results achieved during the period 2007 - 2009
Development Strategy of the period 2010 - 2014 1. The main objectives of the 12th plan 2. Development Scheme 2010 - 2014 3. Development Policies Economy structure Development Establishment of a new approach for investment Promotion of the employment Deepen the process of integration and export promotion Confer greater efficiency to financial policy Reinforcement of the social development Investment in the human capital Impulse of regional Development Establishment of the environmental economy pillars
9
10
12 15 16 17
18 18 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 25
4. Financing requirements of the (2010 - 2014) period
27
Appendix - Economic and social indicators 2010 - 2014
31
1. Main demographic and social indicators 2. GDP growth 3. Savings, consumption and investment 4. External payments 5. Public finances
32 32 33 33 33
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Main achievement 2007 - 2009
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Main achievement 2007 Main achievement 2007 - 2009 The first three years of the XIth development plan were characterized by the intensification and the diversification of reforms which covered all the sectors and the economic and social fields aiming particularly to reinforce the economy competitiveness and the gradual effective integration in the global economy and to promote the social gains.
1. Economic and Social Reforms The first phase of the XIth plan witnessed the reinforcement of the structural reform in the economic and social fields toward enhancing the private investment through the improvement of the business climate and the impulse of the private initiative by the development of the legislations to be compatible with international standards as many laws were promulgated like the concession law and the security of financial transactions law and the economic initiative law which represents a significant shift in the liberalization of investment field, in addition to facilitate the procedures of enterprises creation. Efforts were intensified to develop the sector policies through the upgrading and the modernization of industrial production units and the reinforcement of the professional structures and the development of distribution ways in addition to the focus on the quality system and the adoption of specific programs to support the other sectors. The reforms continued to improve the infrastructure especially through the reinforcement of the basic network of roads and bridges and the enlargement of the communication network and the improvement of the utilities level. The reforms also focused on the different component of the financial sector through the reinforcement of the banks financial foundations and the improvement of the financials services and the dynamic of the financial market and the creation of the alternative market for SME and the development of the insurance sector by reforming its legislation and its organization. The reforms also covered the facilitation of the external trade procedures and the impulse of export through the second export development program and the adoption of the external market access mechanism and the promulgation of the new custom code in addition to the adoption of the transport bundle in addition to the facilitation and the development of logistic
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
- 2009 services related to the external trade and the reduction of the number and the rates of the customs tariffs in order to lighten the enterprise charges and establishing a unique custom system for all imports. Taking in account the importance of the employment issue in the Tunisian development approach, several decisions were taken during the previous period in order to intensify the job creation through the growth rate acceleration and the investment impulse and the initiative encouragement. In order to concretize the social and the economic dimension of development, several measures were taken during the last years aiming to improve further the human resources through the improvement of the education and vocational training system and the higher education quality in order to establish the knowledge economy components. In this field, the orientation law of education was promulgated in addition to the revision of higher education diploma and the reinforcement of the vocational training centers capacity and the improvement of the national system structure of scientific research. The actions also focused on the reinforcement of the social policies and the specific programs in addition to the redistribution of wages policy in order to reduce the poverty rate and reinforce the medium class and enlarge the social and the health coverage and improve the healthcare services and make it more close to people and enhance the life quality and offer vital resources especially for poor people in addition to the diversification of programs and fields of sport and culture and the reinforcement of the support for the women and old people and children. Taking in account the regional dimension of development, the efforts focused on the reinforcement of the infrastructure and utilities and the launching of several specific programs to develop the priority regions and improve the life quality and concretize the solidarity and the complementarities between regions in order to make the region an active pole of development.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Main achievement 2007 2. Results achieved during the period 2007-2009 Tunisia succeeded during the period 2007-2009 to achieve positive results and reinforce the development achievements despite the disbursements and negative changes which characterized the international economic scene and the bad impact of the economic crisis on the capital flows and the external exchanges. The main achievements are: A GDP increase at the average rate of 4.6% at constant prices during the period 20072009, despite the vulnerability of export-oriented sectors due to the global economic crisis, especially in 2009. This is due mainly to the dynamic pattern witnessed by the non-agricultural activities, especially during the first two years of implementation of the plan due to the overall efforts to diversify the sources of growth and to develop the GDP structure in the direction of upgrading the share of high knowledge content sectors in GDP. On this basis, it was possible to increase the income per capita to reach 5641 dinars in 2009 compared to 4855.5 dinars in 2007, which contributed to improving the adjustment ratio to reach 30.1% in 2009 compared to 27.2% in 2006. The investment growth rate evaluated on an average of 10.8% at current prices, which permitted to increase the investment ratio to reach 23.9% of GDP in 2009 versus 23% in 2007. The share of private sector reached 60.3% of the overall investment and 15.5% of GDP during this period thanks to the frequency of reforms and actions to stimulate private initiative and speed up the pace of enterprise creation. In parallel, foreign investments intensified with a higher rhythm than the targets set for the same period to reach 5% of GDP, thanks to the attention and the support of foreign investors as well as the result of efforts to improve the business climate in general. Consolidate the gains recorded at the employment level by responding to a multitude of additional job requests, especially by higher education graduates, which contributed to the reduction of the unemployment rate to be stabilized at 13.3% in 2009. The preservation of internal and external financial stability by controlling the public budget deficit within the limits of 3% of GDP at most in 2009 in addition to the limitation of the current deficit at reasonable levels to amount 2.7% of GDP in 2009 and the reduction of the rate of external debt to reach 38.1 % of the net income in 2009.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
- 2009 It was possible to limit the inflation rate in acceptable limits to amount 3.7% in 2009, which permitted to maintain the purchasing power of the citizen, thanks to the monetary policy relevance and the rationalization of consumption and the ensuring of market supply. In parallel, many social gains were achieved proved by the notable improvement of indicators related to education and higher education and vocational training and health and the living conditions in general. The human development index rose to 0.780 in 2009 and the life expectancy at birth rose to 74.4 years and the schooling rate for the age group 6-14 years rose to 95% and the social coverage ratio improved to reach 95% in 2009. These achievements contributed in strengthening the credibility of Tunisia in the international financial institutions and improving its ranking by the international institutions specialized in the field of competitiveness. Tunisia managed to obtain a privileged rank in term of economic competitiveness as confirmed by the latest report of the International forum of Davos which ranked Tunisia 32 among 139 countries leading the group of African States and ranked fourth in the Arab region. The World Bank ranked Tunisia 69 among 183 countries and first in Africa on Doing Business report 2010. Moreover, Tunisia leaded the Arabic countries on the quality of life level according the annual ranking of the life quality observatory. Tunisia was also ranked 37 among 149 countries according to the peace indicator which assess the security and stability of countries.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of the period 2010 - 2014
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of Development Strategy of the period 2010 - 2014 Tunisia is facing a crucial phase of its development approach taking in account the important achievement and success which allowed it to gain the international credibility and obtain advanced ranking in the international classifications. Tunisia is aiming to achieve more economic and social progress and guarantee the development impact on all categories and regions and establish the pillars of the sustainable development.
1. The main objectives of the 12th plan The new development strategy aims to engage Tunisia in an advanced stage to catch up the developed countries, based on a number of objectives, namely: Establishing a qualitatively new content for growth based on innovation. Increasing the per capita income to the highest levels and reducing the poverty to the minimum level. Exploiting all the potential to stimulate the employment and reducing the unemployment rate among the university graduates. Adopting appropriated educational and learning system to build a community of intelligence and knowledge. Strengthen the social gains. Tighter the integration of the various regions and promote their integration. Establishing the foundations of environmental economics and improving further the quality of life. To achieve these goals, the XIIth plan include a new generation of reforms aiming to deepen the content of development policies and programs to ensure establishing the elements of a high technological content environmentally friendly and energy-saving and innovative economy.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
the period 2010 - 2014 2. Development Scheme 2010 - 2014 The development scheme 2010-2014 was designed on the basis of gaining the habitual rhythm of growth then accelerating it with the maintain of external and internal financial equilibrium which will allow to concretize the presidential goal to catch up the developed countries and reduce the unemployment rate by at least one point and half at the end of the plan to reach 11.6%: Rise in GDP growth at the average rate of 5.1%, which will allow the per capita income to increase to 8371 dinars in 2014 and consequently increasing the adjustment ratio to 36.2% in 2014 versus 30% in 2009. To concretize this target the action will focus on : • The development of the economy structure to achieve a higher contribution of the services in growth to rise its share to 66% of GDP in 2014, especially with the progress in liberalization of services sectors and the implementation of the upgrade program for the services sector as well as the growing share of high knowledge sectors in GDP. • Increasing the contribution of export in growth to reach 40.2% in relation to the complete liberalization of foreign trade and further reforms to simplify procedures for foreign trade and the development of sectoral restructuring and the engagement in global networks and the development of the Tunisian approach to promote the product in foreign markets • Increasing the overall productivity of factors contribution in growth to the rate of 48.6% during the whole Plan period to reach 53.3% in 2014 and through the deepening of structural reforms to promote greater efficiency in the economy pillars and improve productivity at the macro and sectoral levels through greater sophistication of quality standards and the adoption of international standards and the improvement of the business climate in addition to the impulse of the promising sectors such as the offshoring services, health services and improve the logistics and related infrastructure. Moreover, the action will focus on the spreading of the productivity culture and human resources support and the intensification of the Information and Communication Technologies use. Intensify job creation rising to 415 thousand jobs during the next five to allow full coverage of the additional requests and the reduction of the unemployment rate by at least a point and a half to reach 11.6% in 2014 compared to 13.3% in 2009.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of Raising investment effort to higher levels through the development of the national approach of investment and the exploitation of all opportunities offered by the new economy and the high added value activities and the creation of new projects in areas based primarily on intelligence, creativity and innovation either in the traditional sectors or in new sectors. The goal is to increase the size of the investment at an average rate of 11.2% at current prices and by raising the investment ratio to 26% in 2014 compared to 23.9% in 2009. The private sector share will reach 60.8% of the overall investment during the period of the plan versus 60.3% during the period 2007-2009. Ensure the safety of internal and external financial balances, through: • Controlling the current deficit within 2.8% of GDP in 2014 and improve further the indicators of external debt as the indebtedness ratio will be reduced from 38.1% of national disposable income in 2009 to 29.5 in 2014. • Reducing the Public budget deficit from 3% of GDP in 2009 to 2.7% in 2014, which requires the intensification of efforts to support the own resources of the budget, to reduce the tax pressure to reach 17.4% of GDP and the tightening of the public expenditure use according to priorities. • Containing the level of inflation within 3.3% in 2014 compared to 3.7% in 2009 to preserve the purchasing power of the citizens.
3. Development Policies The achievement of the development objectives requires the development of the economy structure and the establishment of a new approach for investment and the promotion of the employment in addition to deepen the integration and impulse further exports and enhance the financial policy and reinforce the social development and the investment in the human capital and stimulate the regional development and establish the environmental economy pillars. Economy structure Development The economic policy planned for the next period aims to establish a new model for growth based on innovation and the intensive use of technology and creation to build a strong knowledge economy and to positioning in the technological international map.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
the period 2010 - 2014 This model aims to review the sector policies in order to increase the share of promising and high added value sectors in the GDP structure in order to offer further opportunities for export and employment. Tunisia aims to establish several technological zones in different places in order to attract the high tech investment in the fields of agriculture and food and biotechnology and ICT and electric activities and the plane components and textile and clothing and environment and renewable energies. The upgrade and modernization program intended for industrial enterprises will be valorized by putting the accent on the investments in innovation and technological development and quality inside the enterprise in addition to the promotion of industrial infrastructure to the international standards in order to concretize the plan aiming to create a development pole and an industrial technological center in each governorate. The action will also focus on inciting enterprises to integrate the new techniques in the production systems and enhancing their ability to develop the used technologies and being up to date with the new technical development in order to valorize further the competitive skills in the advanced industrial fields. The service sector constitute one of the sector reforms priorities considering the important opportunities which offer this promising sector to create new and sustainable growth sources in order to make Tunisia a regional financial and business center . To concretize this issue, the action will focus on the achievement of the upgrade program of the service sector by the realization of a model program to upgrade 100 enterprises especially at the level of innovation in addition to the advance in the liberalization of the service sector and the impulse of the promising sectors such as ICT and the logistic services and the healthcare services and the business services and the offshoring services. In parallel, the action will aim to modernize the traditional sectors in order to exploit their production capacities and improve their performance through the improvement of their comparative advantages and the detection of their promising activities to face the international demand development and reinforce their position in the traditional markets and access to new markets.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of In this area, the action will aim to enhance the agriculture competitiveness through the quality improvement and the establishment of Tunisian standards to the different products and the development of the biological agriculture in addition to the reinforcement of the upgrade programs related to the tourism and handcraft and trade in order to create a modern trade activity up to date with the evolution of the national economy and supporting the productive system. Establishment of a new approach for investment During the next period, the reforms aiming to create a better environment for investment and innovation and business will be deepened through the adoption of a new and developed approach for investment and business creation based on the radical review of incentives system. This approach will aim to orient the incentives system to the promising and high value added sectors and to the development region zones. In parallel, the reforms will continue to improve more the business climate and reinforce the competiveness of business through the simplification of investment procedures and the development of the business support mechanism through the adoption of a unique procedure and document for administrative services to the business creation and the generalization of the enterprise space in the regions in addition to the reduction of the business creation procedures number from 10 to 5 and the reinforcement of the electronic administration and the reduction of administrative licenses. The efforts will also aim to establish a developed infrastructure through the adoption of national program to upgrade the industrial zones and the creation of new zones and the enlargement of the transport network and the establishment of logistic zones according the international standards in addition to the promotion of the Tunisian product quality under the achievement of the national program of quality and the adoption of the international standards and the beginning in the realization of the upgrade program of services and the modernization of traditional sectors. The rhythm of juridical and organizational reforms will be intensified to be up to date with the standards adopted by the developed countries in addition to the concretization of the fundaments of judicious management and transparency inside the enterprise and the reinforcement of the investor protection.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
the period 2010 - 2014 Promotion of the employment The employment policy aims to cover all the employment additional demands to reduce the unemployment rate of at least one point and a half in 2014 in addition to intensify the employment job creation for the growing numbers of higher education graduates as well as tackling the long-term unemployment and the empowerment of each family of livelihood or job for at least one of its members towards the reduction of the unemployment period of two years at most to get a job or internship, or upgrade training upon graduation with the end of the next five years. On this basis, the promotion of employment approach is focused on a more appropriation of education system and vocational training to the requirements of the economic enterprises and the needs of investors and the development of the professional integration mechanisms, as well as support the solidarity economy and strengthening the role of the region in the promotion of employment in addition to the guidance of an active policy of employment and strengthening the employment policy abroad. This approach includes also a focusing on the development of the work legislation in line with economic reality and forms of developed work as well as to provide all forms of assistance and briefing for the benefit of projects creators and financial support and rehabilitation to promote the independent job and private initiative in addition to support the assistance of the job seekers belonging to the low-income families and facilitate their integration into the job market and enhance the contribution of the associations in the promotion of the employment. Deepen the process of integration and export promotion The efforts will continue to expand the path of integration in the global economy to ensure sustainable economic growth and benefit from the opportunities offered by globalization. For this purpose, the efforts will be focused to complete the liberalization of foreign investment in various sectors of production, especially in the services sector as well as developing partnerships between Tunisian and foreign enterprises and incite them to further integration in the components of the digital economy and the global production and distribution networks. Moreover, liberalization of foreign trade will be completed by the reduction in customs duties to achieve compatibility with the level of internationals tariffs and reduce the number of rates from 6 currently to at most 4 on 2014, and reduce it in the proportion of 15% maximum, as well as reviewing the legal and regulatory framework of foreign trade to
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of reduce the non-tariff restrictions in addition to deepening the partnership with the European Union to obtain advanced status with the completion of negotiations in agriculture, services and support economic and trade partnership with the rest of the world and the trend towards establishment of free trade zones with the Asian, American and African countries in the context of pursuing a more balanced and effective sectoral and geographic export structure. Furthermore, reforms will continue in the direction of facilitating the foreign trade procedures and further promotion of exports by supporting institutions in the storming of the foreign markets through the adoption of a third program for the development of exports as well as continue to facilitate procedures and reduce transaction costs and increase the efficiency of logistics services and the assignment of origin certificates and support traceability as well as improving quality criteria and the adoption of international standards. Confer greater efficiency to financial policy The financial reforms will target during the coming period to develop the tax system in the direction of easing the burden on economic institutions, especially SME and low-income people and continue to upgrade the services rendered by the tax administration. Efforts will continue to secure the budget interventions for development work by conferring more efficiency to the public investment programs and to maintain levels of support and social transfers in addition to developing the management of the public debt by the creation of the Tunisia Treasure agency and the Deposits and Guarantees Fund and to continue to establish a methodology to manage the budget by objectives. In order to secure an adequate financing of the economy, efforts will continue to give more flexibility to lead the monetary policy through a targeting inflation policy and improve the performance of the financial sector to the level of international standards. In this area, efforts will be intensified to ensure the quality of banking services and strengthening the financial capacity of financial institutions by creating a public bank pole "Tunisia Holding" and a financial pole specialized in the financing of small and medium enterprises and attract internationally renowned banking institutions in addition to the revitalization of the transactions in the financial market and improve the functioning of the market and devote modes of governance and transparency of financial transactions in addition to the further development of the insurance sector and improve the performance of insurance institutions and improving the quality of their services.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
the period 2010 - 2014 In the context of the trend towards the establishment of full liberalization of the dinar, the efforts will focus on pursuing the path of capital liberalization and facilitate access to external financing resources with the most concessional terms and enrich the financial arena with outputs and new financial mechanisms especially with the launch of Tunisia Financial Harbor in addition to targeting international renowned investors to further boost confidence in the national economy and increase its reputation in the international community and continue efforts to attract more foreign direct investment in various fields and activities. Reinforcement of the social development Efforts will continue during the next five years to promote the social gains and ensure greater life level and achieve higher quality of life for the citizen in the framework of solidarity approach, based on synergies and equal opportunities and non-exclusion and marginalization consecration of the inseparability of economic and social dimensions of national development strategy. Reforms will be focused on the support of social transfers policy and ensure more their distribution and orientation towards those who are entitled to approach the full social coverage in order to not keep any profession outside the social security system in addition to the intensification of social safety networks to protect vulnerable groups from relapsing or falling into the poverty and develop a social alert system and the assistance and help functions .It will be allocated for this purpose around 20% of the GDP to social transfers. The action will aim the reform of pension system to guarantee the rights of secured persons and achieve financial balance of social funds and continue to strengthen the contractual wages policy increase and ensure the elements of health security and development of mechanisms for health vigilance. Moreover, the action will focus on the promotion of rural development programs and integrated urban and upgrading and strengthening the public utilities and increase the proportion of households owning a home as well as to continue to strengthen the elements of cultural development and promote the areas of sports and youth.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of Investment in the human capital The Human development strategy aims to provide the necessary skills and competencies and provide the adequate infrastructure to develop the knowledge economy within the framework of a national plan based on supporting the policies of education and training system and the development of research and technology. The reforms set in this area will focus on improving the quality of the system of education, learning, and raising them to the level of international standards through the development and dissemination of the certification and evaluation functions in the educational system and the appropriateness of the specialties with the needs of the economy and focus on the promising fields to provide skilled manpower to respond to the needs of enterprises and big projects and enhance the openness of the university and strengthen its partnership with foreign universities and to achieve highest ratio of joint degrees between the Tunisian university and counterparts in developed countries. The action will aim also to increase the cost-effectiveness of the vocational training system and the beginning to work with the applied training to students as well as the development of functions of guidance, direction and briefing and the development of the volunteerism, initiative and teamwork culture in all phases of education and upgrade the various indicators of education and the reduction in illiteracy rates. The aim of these reforms is to increase the number of technical skills and scientific talent through the strengthening of the engineering training and the gradual promotion of the graduates number from 4500 currently to 7000 Engineer in 2011 to reach 9000 engineer during the year 2014 in order to allow to increase the number of graduates in the fields of science and engineering from 26 to 37 thousand in 2014. In order to develop research and technology system, efforts will focus on the provision of necessary funds for research and development through the activation of the innovation and technological development interventions fund to contribute to the capital of industrial enterprises which aim to develop a new product or new service with respect to promising activities and innovative projects and also incite national enterprises to allocate 1% of their transactions to finance research and development in order to raise the scientific research and technology share in GDP from 1.25% to 1.5% in 2014, making Tunisia an advanced technological base.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
the period 2010 - 2014 The action will also aim the promotion of partnership contracts in the field of research and development between the production enterprises, academic institutions and research centers as well establish sector networks to renew and establish a quality system in the research centers and encourage the private sector to intensify the use of new technologies as well as expanding the network of incubators on the higher education institutions and expanding it to engineers schools and technological institutes and development complex. Impulse of regional Development The regional development policy set for the next phase is based on a renewed vision of the development work focused on supporting the competitiveness of the regions through the promotion of integration and complementarity between the various governorates and strengthen the role of each region in the development of projects and development programs according to their intrinsic potential and their comparative advantages. Efforts will continue to support the financial resources and strengthen human resources for the regions and provide all the appropriate conditions to give an effective dynamic for private investment in the regions through the development of programs and projects of regional development according to the requirements and the needs of each region, and the promotion of utilities and the investment in infrastructure and the development incentives system for areas of regional development and the adoption of approaches able to valorize the potential and promote the regional and local economy and improve living conditions and to achieve regional balance. The reforms will focus more on diversifying the economic base in the regions and the dissemination of technological poles and industrial complex and support sectors of higher education and vocational training as well as more promote priority areas by setting specific programs. Establishment of the environmental economy pillars In order to establish a modern approach to environmental policy and protection of natural resources, the reforms will go towards dedicating the optimum use of natural resources and maintaining ecological balance to the progressive allocation of 1.25% of the GDP for the various programs relating to preservation of the environment and valuation of natural resources.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Development Strategy of In this framework, efforts will be intensified to maintain the balance of the national water resources and the tightening of the exploitation of domain and the available natural resources and the rational use and protection of biological diversity, and continue to support the programs of resistance to erosion and desertification and the intensification of economy programs in the energy and the use of alternative energies in the field of transport and the empowerment of the major cities by structured network equipped with modern facilities to ease traffic and reduce congestion and pollution. The action will also aim to reduce the negative effects of climate change and reduce pollution in cities and developing control mechanisms of air pollution and to support efforts to improve the quality of life and improve the framework to live in cities and rural areas and expanding green spaces and dissemination of sanitation services, as well as work to establish friendly economic environment enterprises that promotes sustainable development in addition to the activation of environmental label and support the environmental rehabilitation.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
the period 2010 - 2014 4. Financing requirements of the (2010 - 2014) period The development scheme for the next five years provides an evolution of financing requirements to reach 120574 MD during the period (2010-2014) in light of the resumption of the national economy of its dynamics and increasing the pace of investment and the strengthening of foreign reserves. Financing requirements 2 0 0 7 MD
Overall investment
-
2 0 0 9 Share(%)
2 0 1 0 MD
-
2 0 1 4 Share(%)
38543.0
74.8
98321
81.5
Stock variation
2232.9
4.4
3696.0
3.1
Repayment of the debt principal and other expenditure
5579.7
10.8
13627.0
11.3
Increase in reserves
5139.7
10.0
4930
4.1
Total requirements
51494.7
100.0
120574.0
100.0
National savings
35878.4
69.7
88534.0
73.4
External financing
15616.3
30.3
32040.0
26.6
Total resources
51494.7
100.0
120574.0
100.0
The coverage of the above requirements will be assured through continued efforts to consolidate savings resources to reach 88534 MD during the period which reached 23.7% of the net income in 2014 versus 22% in 2009. This will raise the contribution of national savings to cover the financing requirements during the next five years to 73.4% versus 69.7% during 2007-2009 period.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
The remaining financing needs will be met by external financing through continued efforts to secure required external financing in light of the shocks facing the international financial markets and attract more Foreign Direct Investment and participations and exploiting opportunities to mobilize resources from the international financial markets with the best conditions. External Financing 2 0 0 7 - 2 0 0 9 MD Share(%)
2 0 1 0 - 2 0 1 4 MD Share(%)
Current account deficit
4897.5
31.4
13483.0
42.1
Repayment of the debt principal and other expenditure
5579.1
35.7
13627.0
42.5
Increase in reserves
5139.7
32.9
4930.0
15.4
15616.3
100.0
32040.0
100.0
459.3
2.9
765.0
2.4
Foreign investments and participations
8120.8
52.0
17200.0
53.7
Government loans
5287.0
33.9
7850.0
24.5
Total requirements
Donations
Commercial and financial loans Total resources
1749.2
11.2
6225.0
19.4
15616.3
100.0
32040.0
100.0
On this basis, the external financing needs for the XIIth plan have been set in the limit of 32040 MD. This represents approximately 26.6% of total financing requirements of the economy versus 30.3% during the period (2007 - 2009). Thus, the coverage of external financing requirements will be ensured through: The consolidation of foreign investment and participations which will amount to 17200 MD during the XIIth Plan representing a share of 53.7% of total foreign capital flows versus 52.0% during the period (2007-2009) thanks to efforts to further improve the investment climate and enhancing the attractiveness of Tunisia as a privileged site for investment.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Mobilization of resources in the form of commercial and financial credits to around 6225 MD representing 19.4% of total external financing requirements and this, through the preparation of the institutions that have a financial rating to exploit opportunities that may be offered on the international financial markets in the coming period refer to the graduated and moderate return to the international financial market after the strong disturbances that have characterized this market as a result of the international financial crisis. Mobilization of resources in the form of donations in the amount of 765 MD in the framework of the Competitiveness Support Program and the Integration Support Program in addition to financing structural reforms programs and some sectoral projects. Mobilization of resources in the form of government loans as part of bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the amount of 7850 MD through suitable allocation of available loans and developing international cooperation mechanisms and adapt to the requirements of the next period.
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ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Appendix
Economic and social indicators 2010 - 2014
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
Economic and social 1. Main demographic and social indicators 2 0 0 9
Population (1000)
2 0 1 4
10434
11025
Population growth (%)
1.19
1.17
Life expectancy at birth (years)
74.4
75.2
Illiteracy rate (%)
19.4
14.0
Social security coverage (%)
95.0
98.0
Per capita income (dinars)
5641
8372
2007 - 2009
2010 - 2014
Agriculture and fisheries
2.0
2.7
Manufacturing industries
2.4
4.2
Textiles, clothing and leather industries
-3.2
2.0
Mechanical and electrical industrie
6.0
6.4
Non-manufacturing industries
5.7
6.1
Services
5.8
6.8
Tourism
2.4
5.1
Communications
15.1
13.0
GDP
4.6
5.5
2. GDP growth At constant prices (%)
32
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN TUNISIA
2010 - 2014
indicators 2010 - 2020 3. Savings, consumption and investment ( % )
2007 - 2009
2010 - 2014
22.0
23.7
4.7
5.3
Rate of investment as % of GDP
23.9
26.0
Share of private investment as % of GFCF
60.3
60.8
38543
98321
2007 - 2009
2010 - 2014
7.9
10.4
Growth of imports of goods and services
8.7
10.4
Current deficit as % of GDP
2.7
2.8
38.1
29.5
External financing needs (MD)
15616
32040
Foreign direct investment and participations
8120.8
17200.0
Savings rate as % of income
1
Consumption growth 1
Overall investment 1
Figures at the end of period
4. External payments ( % )
Growth of exports of goods and services
1 1
2
Foreign Debt as % of net income
1 2
2
Donations
459.3
765
Government loans
5287.0
7850
Commercial and financial loans
1749.2
6225
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 4
Current prices End of period
5. Public finances ( % )
Fiscal pressure
19.9
17.4
Budget deficit as % of GDP
3.0
2.7
33